0:00:36 > 0:00:38Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
0:00:38 > 0:00:39I'm Sarah Smith.
0:00:39 > 0:00:42And this is your guide to all the big stories that
0:00:42 > 0:00:46are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.
0:00:46 > 0:00:48Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget
0:00:48 > 0:00:51on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,
0:00:51 > 0:00:54show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -
0:00:54 > 0:00:59but can he change the direction of the country and his government?
0:00:59 > 0:01:01Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has
0:01:01 > 0:01:02some advice of his own.
0:01:02 > 0:01:05He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit
0:01:05 > 0:01:09- he joins me live to explain why.
0:01:09 > 0:01:12The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating
0:01:12 > 0:01:15with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking
0:01:15 > 0:01:18a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses
0:01:18 > 0:01:21about Brexit.
0:01:21 > 0:01:25And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,
0:01:25 > 0:01:27we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,
0:01:27 > 0:01:29finding out who people most trust with the economy -
0:01:29 > 0:01:34Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?
0:01:34 > 0:01:36In the South West, was this Plymouth Tory MP right
0:01:36 > 0:01:41to suggest his party smells of decline?
0:01:41 > 0:01:43I was asked a series of questions and I answered
0:01:49 > 0:01:51All that coming up in the programme.
0:01:51 > 0:01:54And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised
0:01:54 > 0:01:58not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -
0:01:58 > 0:02:00although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -
0:02:00 > 0:02:04it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.
0:02:04 > 0:02:07Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news
0:02:07 > 0:02:09this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's
0:02:09 > 0:02:11plenty of speculation about what might or not might be
0:02:11 > 0:02:14in Philip Hammond's Budget.
0:02:14 > 0:02:16The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,
0:02:16 > 0:02:20including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.
0:02:20 > 0:02:23He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,
0:02:23 > 0:02:25where he talks about plans to reach the target of building
0:02:25 > 0:02:29300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city
0:02:29 > 0:02:30the size of Leeds.
0:02:30 > 0:02:33That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal
0:02:33 > 0:02:36Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out
0:02:36 > 0:02:39a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.
0:02:39 > 0:02:42The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer
0:02:42 > 0:02:45a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.
0:02:45 > 0:02:48But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.
0:02:48 > 0:02:51He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency
0:02:51 > 0:02:53budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.
0:02:53 > 0:02:57So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond
0:02:57 > 0:03:00and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning
0:03:00 > 0:03:03on the Andrew Marr Show.
0:03:03 > 0:03:06I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,
0:03:06 > 0:03:09and we have to embrace the opportunities that
0:03:09 > 0:03:10a post-Brexit world will offer.
0:03:10 > 0:03:13They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,
0:03:13 > 0:03:16huge technological evolution.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown
0:03:19 > 0:03:22time and time again that we're up for these challenges.
0:03:22 > 0:03:25For many people out there, this is a depression.
0:03:25 > 0:03:29We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.
0:03:29 > 0:03:31Nurses, for example.
0:03:31 > 0:03:34We've had people who are now...
0:03:34 > 0:03:381.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest
0:03:38 > 0:03:39country in the world.
0:03:39 > 0:03:47That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.
0:03:47 > 0:03:52We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,
0:03:52 > 0:03:57but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk
0:03:57 > 0:04:01to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to
0:04:01 > 0:04:06set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we
0:04:06 > 0:04:11expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor
0:04:11 > 0:04:15across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think
0:04:15 > 0:04:24we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A
0:04:24 > 0:04:27short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.
0:04:27 > 0:04:32They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to
0:04:32 > 0:04:36capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on
0:04:36 > 0:04:41earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are
0:04:41 > 0:04:49good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,
0:04:49 > 0:04:54Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get
0:04:54 > 0:04:57anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory
0:04:57 > 0:05:06MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have
0:05:06 > 0:05:09seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting
0:05:09 > 0:05:14in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment
0:05:14 > 0:05:18for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical
0:05:18 > 0:05:23through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold
0:05:23 > 0:05:30ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their
0:05:30 > 0:05:33Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing
0:05:33 > 0:05:38something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for
0:05:38 > 0:05:43how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with
0:05:43 > 0:05:48everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation
0:05:48 > 0:05:53for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for
0:05:53 > 0:05:57economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the
0:05:57 > 0:06:01issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up
0:06:01 > 0:06:06with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they
0:06:06 > 0:06:11absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls
0:06:11 > 0:06:16apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from
0:06:16 > 0:06:19Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them
0:06:19 > 0:06:24something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different
0:06:24 > 0:06:27people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and
0:06:27 > 0:06:36dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical
0:06:36 > 0:06:44terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic
0:06:44 > 0:06:50cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if
0:06:50 > 0:06:55you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,
0:06:55 > 0:07:00if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be
0:07:00 > 0:07:06worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn
0:07:06 > 0:07:12on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,
0:07:12 > 0:07:16and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of
0:07:16 > 0:07:19probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in
0:07:19 > 0:07:24the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds
0:07:24 > 0:07:30impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the
0:07:30 > 0:07:35last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much
0:07:35 > 0:07:40can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it
0:07:40 > 0:07:47is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the
0:07:47 > 0:07:52party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,
0:07:52 > 0:08:01damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction
0:08:01 > 0:08:08in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high
0:08:08 > 0:08:13inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will
0:08:13 > 0:08:18probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will
0:08:18 > 0:08:23pick up on some of this later in the programme.
0:08:23 > 0:08:25Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week
0:08:25 > 0:08:28he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised
0:08:28 > 0:08:30the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences
0:08:30 > 0:08:34of leaving the EU.
0:08:34 > 0:08:38Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty
0:08:38 > 0:08:47radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the
0:08:47 > 0:08:52London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we
0:08:52 > 0:08:56will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to
0:08:56 > 0:09:00the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we
0:09:00 > 0:09:05have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It
0:09:05 > 0:09:10is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the
0:09:10 > 0:09:15modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,
0:09:15 > 0:09:19which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what
0:09:19 > 0:09:26would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.
0:09:26 > 0:09:32The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the
0:09:32 > 0:09:35classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free
0:09:35 > 0:09:40trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting
0:09:40 > 0:09:48a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you
0:09:48 > 0:09:52right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the
0:09:52 > 0:09:55Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on
0:09:55 > 0:10:01the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury
0:10:01 > 0:10:05have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the
0:10:05 > 0:10:09nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.
0:10:09 > 0:10:14These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the
0:10:14 > 0:10:21euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but
0:10:21 > 0:10:27it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,
0:10:27 > 0:10:36who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the
0:10:36 > 0:10:40exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past
0:10:40 > 0:10:45doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the
0:10:45 > 0:10:49Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to
0:10:49 > 0:10:54you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its
0:10:54 > 0:11:00forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The
0:11:00 > 0:11:03short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most
0:11:03 > 0:11:09dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of
0:11:09 > 0:11:12political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the
0:11:12 > 0:11:17same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.
0:11:17 > 0:11:21You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,
0:11:21 > 0:11:25and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the
0:11:25 > 0:11:30Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an
0:11:30 > 0:11:36enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,
0:11:36 > 0:11:41his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to
0:11:41 > 0:11:45the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to
0:11:45 > 0:11:52change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he
0:11:52 > 0:11:57is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very
0:11:57 > 0:12:02encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive
0:12:02 > 0:12:07approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very
0:12:07 > 0:12:14close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury
0:12:14 > 0:12:18and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an
0:12:18 > 0:12:22exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad
0:12:22 > 0:12:27thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather
0:12:27 > 0:12:33than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in
0:12:33 > 0:12:38absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.
0:12:38 > 0:12:42When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has
0:12:42 > 0:12:49to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the
0:12:49 > 0:12:52referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been
0:12:52 > 0:12:57made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This
0:12:57 > 0:13:02only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that
0:13:02 > 0:13:09voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put
0:13:09 > 0:13:15£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the
0:13:15 > 0:13:21NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was
0:13:21 > 0:13:27won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on
0:13:27 > 0:13:31that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on
0:13:31 > 0:13:35implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The
0:13:35 > 0:13:40Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we
0:13:40 > 0:13:44understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU
0:13:44 > 0:13:48demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for
0:13:48 > 0:13:54things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the
0:13:54 > 0:14:01exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government
0:14:01 > 0:14:05will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,
0:14:05 > 0:14:10or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be
0:14:10 > 0:14:14part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to
0:14:14 > 0:14:19choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to
0:14:19 > 0:14:23choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive
0:14:23 > 0:14:27schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the
0:14:27 > 0:14:37government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?
0:14:37 > 0:14:41It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we
0:14:41 > 0:14:48left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the
0:14:48 > 0:14:54remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against
0:14:54 > 0:14:58paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would
0:14:58 > 0:15:06be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have
0:15:06 > 0:15:10new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal
0:15:10 > 0:15:13situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down
0:15:13 > 0:15:18on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face
0:15:18 > 0:15:22of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned
0:15:22 > 0:15:30if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50
0:15:30 > 0:15:40is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it
0:15:40 > 0:15:44makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in
0:15:44 > 0:15:47same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of
0:15:47 > 0:15:52view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you
0:15:52 > 0:15:54would.
0:15:54 > 0:15:56We're joined in the studio by the former minister
0:15:56 > 0:15:57Stephen Hammond.
0:15:57 > 0:16:00He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member
0:16:00 > 0:16:03of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named
0:16:03 > 0:16:04as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph
0:16:04 > 0:16:07this week - lucky him.
0:16:07 > 0:16:12I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up
0:16:12 > 0:16:21on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a
0:16:21 > 0:16:26rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it
0:16:26 > 0:16:31is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the
0:16:31 > 0:16:35negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we
0:16:35 > 0:16:42expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March
0:16:42 > 0:16:472019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do
0:16:47 > 0:16:52harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those
0:16:52 > 0:16:56negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a
0:16:56 > 0:17:00couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019
0:17:00 > 0:17:05and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing
0:17:05 > 0:17:11with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government
0:17:11 > 0:17:15said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the
0:17:15 > 0:17:21advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by
0:17:21 > 0:17:25somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to
0:17:25 > 0:17:29be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You
0:17:29 > 0:17:32did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important
0:17:32 > 0:17:38that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to
0:17:38 > 0:17:42set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time
0:17:42 > 0:17:47available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal
0:17:47 > 0:17:54between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be
0:17:54 > 0:17:57interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British
0:17:57 > 0:18:02electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote
0:18:02 > 0:18:05to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we
0:18:05 > 0:18:10would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get
0:18:10 > 0:18:14through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be
0:18:14 > 0:18:19completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I
0:18:19 > 0:18:23don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and
0:18:23 > 0:18:29getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to
0:18:29 > 0:18:32settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount
0:18:32 > 0:18:39that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy
0:18:39 > 0:18:43for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick
0:18:43 > 0:18:48to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our
0:18:48 > 0:18:53liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20
0:18:53 > 0:18:57billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of
0:18:57 > 0:19:01the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade
0:19:01 > 0:19:07deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this
0:19:07 > 0:19:12that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're
0:19:12 > 0:19:18prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,
0:19:18 > 0:19:28that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The
0:19:28 > 0:19:32Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we
0:19:32 > 0:19:40don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has
0:19:40 > 0:19:45about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal
0:19:45 > 0:19:49requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the
0:19:49 > 0:19:53others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we
0:19:53 > 0:19:58shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier
0:19:58 > 0:20:03said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has
0:20:03 > 0:20:11not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer
0:20:11 > 0:20:16would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg
0:20:16 > 0:20:21suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But
0:20:21 > 0:20:26we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.
0:20:26 > 0:20:32No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.
0:20:32 > 0:20:37It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to
0:20:37 > 0:20:41secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the
0:20:41 > 0:20:47scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.
0:20:47 > 0:20:53You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some
0:20:53 > 0:20:59of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit
0:20:59 > 0:21:05suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do
0:21:05 > 0:21:12you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some
0:21:12 > 0:21:19flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff
0:21:19 > 0:21:26drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,
0:21:26 > 0:21:31the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his
0:21:31 > 0:21:36view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into
0:21:36 > 0:21:43the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.
0:21:43 > 0:21:48Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think
0:21:48 > 0:21:53that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the
0:21:53 > 0:21:57economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the
0:21:57 > 0:22:04price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the
0:22:04 > 0:22:08biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest
0:22:08 > 0:22:15in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in
0:22:15 > 0:22:23additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I
0:22:23 > 0:22:26think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling
0:22:26 > 0:22:33can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity
0:22:33 > 0:22:40model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the
0:22:40 > 0:22:46job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long
0:22:46 > 0:22:50economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of
0:22:50 > 0:22:54business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very
0:22:54 > 0:23:00much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.
0:23:00 > 0:23:04There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of
0:23:04 > 0:23:06individuals we want to stand together and support the best
0:23:06 > 0:23:12interests of the government.Thank you.
0:23:12 > 0:23:14Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying
0:23:14 > 0:23:17to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive
0:23:17 > 0:23:19free trade deal with the EU.
0:23:19 > 0:23:21He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'
0:23:21 > 0:23:26and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.
0:23:26 > 0:23:29Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders
0:23:29 > 0:23:31of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.
0:23:31 > 0:23:33We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders
0:23:33 > 0:23:36she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.
0:23:36 > 0:23:40Here's her film.
0:23:46 > 0:23:49I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,
0:23:49 > 0:23:52and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,
0:23:52 > 0:23:57and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20
0:23:57 > 0:24:01years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.
0:24:04 > 0:24:07I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful
0:24:07 > 0:24:10of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave
0:24:10 > 0:24:12the European Union because we thought the country would be
0:24:12 > 0:24:14better off outside.
0:24:14 > 0:24:17It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined
0:24:17 > 0:24:21the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining
0:24:21 > 0:24:25the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany
0:24:25 > 0:24:28experienced in the '70s back home.
0:24:28 > 0:24:30The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.
0:24:30 > 0:24:35But, of course, it didn't.
0:24:37 > 0:24:40Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,
0:24:40 > 0:24:43Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.
0:24:43 > 0:24:44Germany's extraordinary success is down to
0:24:44 > 0:24:49the pragmatism of its business.
0:24:49 > 0:24:54German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,
0:24:54 > 0:25:00long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.
0:25:00 > 0:25:03Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks
0:25:03 > 0:25:05are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want
0:25:05 > 0:25:13that to go away.
0:25:13 > 0:25:17German business is not given to making big political statements
0:25:17 > 0:25:20out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making
0:25:20 > 0:25:23positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal
0:25:23 > 0:25:26with the United Kingdom.
0:25:26 > 0:25:29BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,
0:25:29 > 0:25:33and exports just under 1 million cars annually.
0:25:33 > 0:25:38The UK is a vital market.
0:25:38 > 0:25:42What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,
0:25:42 > 0:25:47because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,
0:25:47 > 0:25:51it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,
0:25:51 > 0:25:55but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,
0:25:55 > 0:25:58and what we need to see now is what is going to be
0:25:58 > 0:26:01the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,
0:26:01 > 0:26:03what is going to be the requirements for people
0:26:03 > 0:26:06moving across the continent?
0:26:06 > 0:26:08Because all of these things are important to us today.
0:26:08 > 0:26:12And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.
0:26:12 > 0:26:14Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission
0:26:14 > 0:26:18is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be
0:26:18 > 0:26:20German business, German consumers and German employees
0:26:20 > 0:26:24who will suffer.
0:26:24 > 0:26:26TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete
0:26:26 > 0:26:29the first phase successfully.
0:26:29 > 0:26:32The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial
0:26:32 > 0:26:35consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.
0:26:35 > 0:26:38And then it's not a question of punishment payments.
0:26:38 > 0:26:41It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual
0:26:41 > 0:26:44obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes
0:26:44 > 0:26:47a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,
0:26:47 > 0:26:56so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.
0:26:56 > 0:27:01It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.
0:27:01 > 0:27:04Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,
0:27:04 > 0:27:08but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply
0:27:08 > 0:27:12have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.
0:27:12 > 0:27:16Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results
0:27:16 > 0:27:18both sides being able to trade together and work
0:27:18 > 0:27:25together post-Brexit.
0:27:25 > 0:27:27Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,
0:27:27 > 0:27:29and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.
0:27:29 > 0:27:34Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,
0:27:34 > 0:27:36then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,
0:27:36 > 0:27:37the European Union and Germany?
0:27:37 > 0:27:40It's absolutely true.
0:27:40 > 0:27:42I think that this is about two things.
0:27:42 > 0:27:48One, about proving that free trade is possible
0:27:48 > 0:27:51between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.
0:27:51 > 0:27:54If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,
0:27:54 > 0:27:58then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?
0:27:58 > 0:28:03Number two is, I also believe the free trade,
0:28:03 > 0:28:07free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain
0:28:07 > 0:28:09has chosen as the path into the future is a role
0:28:09 > 0:28:12model for Europe.
0:28:12 > 0:28:15The time has come both for the United Kingdom
0:28:15 > 0:28:18and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of
0:28:18 > 0:28:21deal we can achieve.
0:28:21 > 0:28:23Both sides need to be bold.
0:28:23 > 0:28:26As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,
0:28:26 > 0:28:31we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.
0:28:31 > 0:28:35But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading
0:28:35 > 0:28:37economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,
0:28:37 > 0:28:43and that is German business.
0:28:43 > 0:28:45That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case
0:28:45 > 0:28:47and we'll be hearing from the opposite side
0:28:47 > 0:28:49of the argument in the coming weeks.
0:28:49 > 0:28:52Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.
0:28:52 > 0:28:55He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up
0:28:55 > 0:28:56the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,
0:28:56 > 0:28:59and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference
0:28:59 > 0:29:01he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.
0:29:01 > 0:29:06Welcome both of you.
0:29:06 > 0:29:11We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German
0:29:11 > 0:29:16business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in
0:29:16 > 0:29:20their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI
0:29:20 > 0:29:25said that defending the single market must be the priority for the
0:29:25 > 0:29:30EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member
0:29:30 > 0:29:37states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after
0:29:37 > 0:29:42the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce
0:29:42 > 0:29:50tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a
0:29:50 > 0:29:53full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,
0:29:53 > 0:30:01that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion
0:30:01 > 0:30:05of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the
0:30:05 > 0:30:12head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important
0:30:12 > 0:30:19as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but
0:30:19 > 0:30:25the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second
0:30:25 > 0:30:29biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK
0:30:29 > 0:30:35that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that
0:30:35 > 0:30:40wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at
0:30:40 > 0:30:47the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what
0:30:47 > 0:30:53side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful
0:30:53 > 0:30:57thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be
0:30:57 > 0:31:01good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a
0:31:01 > 0:31:05disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the
0:31:05 > 0:31:10delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need
0:31:10 > 0:31:17us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80
0:31:17 > 0:31:21billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and
0:31:21 > 0:31:26Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.
0:31:26 > 0:31:32Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need
0:31:32 > 0:31:38them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's
0:31:38 > 0:31:44be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to
0:31:44 > 0:31:50end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no
0:31:50 > 0:31:58deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not
0:31:58 > 0:32:05there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,
0:32:05 > 0:32:09the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic
0:32:09 > 0:32:13decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would
0:32:13 > 0:32:18have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the
0:32:18 > 0:32:23referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's
0:32:23 > 0:32:29interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic
0:32:29 > 0:32:36stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that
0:32:36 > 0:32:49was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.
0:32:49 > 0:32:54There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a
0:32:54 > 0:32:59change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window
0:32:59 > 0:33:02to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted
0:33:02 > 0:33:09for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work
0:33:09 > 0:33:14together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You
0:33:14 > 0:33:20don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could
0:33:20 > 0:33:25give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a
0:33:25 > 0:33:31cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.
0:33:31 > 0:33:36I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about
0:33:36 > 0:33:43what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is
0:33:43 > 0:33:47democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing
0:33:47 > 0:33:52its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want
0:33:52 > 0:33:58to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to
0:33:58 > 0:34:03encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on
0:34:03 > 0:34:08the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we
0:34:08 > 0:34:13are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest
0:34:13 > 0:34:18of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting
0:34:18 > 0:34:22damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation
0:34:22 > 0:34:28Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European
0:34:28 > 0:34:37Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two
0:34:37 > 0:34:43minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people
0:34:43 > 0:34:52just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You
0:34:52 > 0:34:56either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision
0:34:56 > 0:35:02of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not
0:35:02 > 0:35:11stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel
0:35:11 > 0:35:21Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in
0:35:21 > 0:35:27Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving
0:35:27 > 0:35:31reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going
0:35:31 > 0:35:37on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of
0:35:37 > 0:35:43incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?
0:35:43 > 0:35:50You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that
0:35:50 > 0:35:54business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in
0:35:54 > 0:35:58place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will
0:35:58 > 0:36:02find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get
0:36:02 > 0:36:06those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the
0:36:06 > 0:36:11progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually
0:36:11 > 0:36:20encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke
0:36:20 > 0:36:23out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of
0:36:23 > 0:36:26time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The
0:36:26 > 0:36:31people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,
0:36:31 > 0:36:37still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.
0:36:37 > 0:36:45I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the
0:36:45 > 0:36:49incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept
0:36:49 > 0:36:54the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?
0:36:54 > 0:36:59I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that
0:36:59 > 0:37:03the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to
0:37:03 > 0:37:08change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled
0:37:08 > 0:37:14to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at
0:37:14 > 0:37:23the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is
0:37:23 > 0:37:29a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have
0:37:29 > 0:37:34fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably
0:37:34 > 0:37:40spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on
0:37:40 > 0:37:46the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want
0:37:46 > 0:37:51us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make
0:37:51 > 0:37:57it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I
0:37:57 > 0:38:03want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of
0:38:03 > 0:38:10the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany
0:38:10 > 0:38:15hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And
0:38:15 > 0:38:20they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.
0:38:20 > 0:38:22It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:38:22 > 0:38:25Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest
0:38:25 > 0:38:28opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox
0:38:28 > 0:38:30asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running
0:38:30 > 0:38:31the economy.
0:38:31 > 0:38:40First though, its time for the Sunday Politics where you are.
0:38:40 > 0:38:41Hello, I'm Martyn Oates. the Sunday Politics where you are.
0:38:41 > 0:38:45Coming up on the Sunday Politics here in the South West...
0:38:45 > 0:38:47Councils turn to crowdfunding to pay for projects.
0:38:47 > 0:38:52Admirably enterprising, or a desperate resort to charity as
0:38:52 > 0:38:53further cuts loom?
0:38:53 > 0:38:56If a community was looking to do something, a
0:38:56 > 0:38:58project that was doing a statutory function,
0:38:58 > 0:38:59there would be nothing against doing that.
0:38:59 > 0:39:02I think it is something to be looking into, into
0:39:02 > 0:39:04the future.
0:39:04 > 0:39:07And for the next 20 minutes, I'm joined by Defra Minister
0:39:07 > 0:39:09and Cornish MP George Eustice, and Labour MEP Claire Moody.
0:39:09 > 0:39:14Welcome back to both of you.
0:39:14 > 0:39:17This week, a Plymouth Tory MP made national headlines after claiming
0:39:17 > 0:39:19Theresa May's government smells of decline.
0:39:19 > 0:39:21The former Army captain, Johnny Mercer, also appeared to question
0:39:21 > 0:39:25the decision to appoint former Chief Whip Gavin Williamson
0:39:25 > 0:39:28as Defence Secretary, saying it seems to have sent a message to
0:39:28 > 0:39:32the military community that he's not 100% comfortable with.
0:39:32 > 0:39:34Following the piece in the Daily Telegraph, he
0:39:34 > 0:39:37spoke to the BBC.
0:39:37 > 0:39:40I was asked a series of questions and they answered them in an honest
0:39:40 > 0:39:44manner.
0:39:44 > 0:39:45-- and I answered them.
0:39:45 > 0:39:48I'm afraid I will always do that, I suppose, and it may well be
0:39:48 > 0:39:49to my detriment.
0:39:49 > 0:39:52But I'm afraid you can't have a personality transplant
0:39:52 > 0:39:53just because you come into politics.
0:39:53 > 0:39:56George, this comes a couple of weeks after Gary Streeter, the South West
0:39:56 > 0:39:59Devon MP, likened the present Parliament to the 92-97 Parliament,
0:39:59 > 0:40:02John Major's government, which was rather
0:40:02 > 0:40:07prone, to say the least.
0:40:07 > 0:40:09The government is in a bit of a mess, isn't it?
0:40:09 > 0:40:11No, I don't accept that.
0:40:11 > 0:40:14I think the truth is in politics you get your ups and down.
0:40:14 > 0:40:16There are a lot of downs at the moment?
0:40:16 > 0:40:18What you do is you read the newspapers about things...
0:40:18 > 0:40:20Look at the Commons this week!
0:40:20 > 0:40:21You get a prevailing media narrative at times
0:40:22 > 0:40:23that doesn't give you good weather.
0:40:23 > 0:40:26I have seen that many times when I was press secretary to David
0:40:26 > 0:40:27Cameron.
0:40:27 > 0:40:30I remember in 2007 it was supposed to be disastrous.
0:40:30 > 0:40:32The end of him, he wasn't going to be able
0:40:32 > 0:40:33to continue.
0:40:33 > 0:40:34People talked about leadership challenges
0:40:34 > 0:40:35against David Cameron.
0:40:35 > 0:40:37And in the end he came back from that.
0:40:37 > 0:40:39It just turned out it was a short-term
0:40:39 > 0:40:40story.
0:40:40 > 0:40:43The truth is this government has, this week, broke through the EU
0:40:43 > 0:40:44Withdrawal Bill.
0:40:44 > 0:40:48We're not through that process yet by any means, George.
0:40:48 > 0:40:51We're getting through this process.
0:40:51 > 0:40:53We are starting to bring this bill through.
0:40:53 > 0:40:55Bring this bill forward.
0:40:55 > 0:40:57There have been announcements the Prime Minister has
0:40:57 > 0:40:58made on housing.
0:40:58 > 0:41:00Lots of ministers are out there.
0:41:00 > 0:41:02We have made announcements in Defra on things like
0:41:02 > 0:41:07introducing CCTV in slaughterhouses.
0:41:07 > 0:41:09On a new body to protect the environment, and many others
0:41:09 > 0:41:10as well.
0:41:10 > 0:41:13There is a lot of work going on behind the scenes.
0:41:13 > 0:41:15It doesn't always get covered.
0:41:15 > 0:41:16As a minister I'm encouraged.
0:41:16 > 0:41:19A lot of acrimony behind the scenes as well, one suspects.
0:41:19 > 0:41:21George is saying, so we are getting on with the job?
0:41:22 > 0:41:23Bless him!
0:41:23 > 0:41:25That was a sterling effort at defending the situation.
0:41:25 > 0:41:29But really, you can see there is going to be
0:41:29 > 0:41:34nothing but Brexit in the House for years to come.
0:41:34 > 0:41:37And you can see the way it is being managed is about
0:41:37 > 0:41:38managing the Tory party.
0:41:38 > 0:41:41It is not about the interest of the country.
0:41:41 > 0:41:43And you've got a within fights within fights happening on the Tory
0:41:44 > 0:41:45benches.
0:41:45 > 0:41:46There is the obvious comparison with the 92-97
0:41:46 > 0:41:48government.
0:41:48 > 0:41:51But to be honest, that looks like a very smooth ride
0:41:51 > 0:41:53compared to what we are seeing in Westminster right now.
0:41:53 > 0:41:56OK.
0:41:56 > 0:41:58On the Brexit, it was a divisive referendum
0:41:58 > 0:42:00that split the country.
0:42:00 > 0:42:03What we've all got to do now in Parliament,
0:42:03 > 0:42:05whichever party you belong to, has put the country back together.
0:42:05 > 0:42:07And actually come up with a partnership
0:42:07 > 0:42:08that can reconcile people.
0:42:08 > 0:42:09OK, we will see what happens.
0:42:09 > 0:42:11Government together on it would be a start.
0:42:11 > 0:42:12And the Labour Party.
0:42:12 > 0:42:15We will see what happens in the Commons next week.
0:42:15 > 0:42:17Rural life as we know it is disappearing fast.
0:42:17 > 0:42:19That was the warning this week from the National
0:42:19 > 0:42:20Housing Federation.
0:42:20 > 0:42:22A report by the organisation claims the rural
0:42:22 > 0:42:24population will fall by 1% in the next 20 years.
0:42:24 > 0:42:28Young people are being forced out by high house
0:42:28 > 0:42:29prices and poor broadband and transport infrastructure.
0:42:29 > 0:42:31Johnny Rutherford has been taking a look at
0:42:31 > 0:42:40its findings.
0:42:40 > 0:42:42So I was thinking, where could I film
0:42:42 > 0:42:44to get a model example of a
0:42:44 > 0:42:45rural village?
0:42:45 > 0:42:46And then it came to me.
0:42:46 > 0:42:49Well, I needed a rural village that still definitely had a school,
0:42:49 > 0:42:52a post office, a shop, a church and a good old pub.
0:42:52 > 0:42:56But really, let's get this in perspective.
0:42:56 > 0:42:58According to figures from the National Housing
0:42:58 > 0:43:01Federation this week, classical community villages are becoming
0:43:01 > 0:43:06fewer.
0:43:06 > 0:43:09Scenes like this could really and up as museum pieces if the
0:43:09 > 0:43:10decline continues.
0:43:10 > 0:43:12In the last five years, figures show the Southwest
0:43:12 > 0:43:15has seen five rural schools close, nine post offices shut
0:43:15 > 0:43:22up shop, and 217 pubs pulled their last pints.
0:43:22 > 0:43:25I hesitate to put it as crudely as this, but it is out of
0:43:25 > 0:43:26sight, out of mind.
0:43:26 > 0:43:29I don't see any reason why somebody by dint of the
0:43:29 > 0:43:33geography where they live, should be seriously disadvantaged in their
0:43:33 > 0:43:39access to services that the rest of society gets.
0:43:39 > 0:43:42It's thought that building clusters of affordable
0:43:42 > 0:43:46housing on the edges of our villages could stem the drain of young people
0:43:46 > 0:43:47and families.
0:43:47 > 0:43:52Young people and working age people and families are
0:43:52 > 0:43:54being forced out of villages, because they can't afford to
0:43:54 > 0:43:55live there.
0:43:55 > 0:43:57With young people and families moving out, what is
0:43:57 > 0:43:59happening is services are closing down.
0:43:59 > 0:44:02If you haven't got the houses, you are not even at the starting
0:44:02 > 0:44:03point.
0:44:03 > 0:44:05We need houses in the community for people to live in.
0:44:05 > 0:44:08And then the services come afterwards.
0:44:08 > 0:44:12Also affecting already squeezed families in the run-up to Christmas,
0:44:12 > 0:44:16this week we heard the price of food and soft drinks were up by 4.1%
0:44:16 > 0:44:18since last year.
0:44:18 > 0:44:20And vegetables by even more.
0:44:20 > 0:44:24The Office for National Statistics say those costs though
0:44:24 > 0:44:27are offset by lower petrol costs - cold comfort according to the
0:44:27 > 0:44:30Resolution Foundation.
0:44:30 > 0:44:32As prices rise faster, the impact of the
0:44:32 > 0:44:35public sector take-up on workers in that sector gets all the harsher.
0:44:35 > 0:44:37But perhaps even more importantly for a lower
0:44:37 > 0:44:38income households, who
0:44:38 > 0:44:41are particularly feeling the effects at the moment, is the freeze on
0:44:41 > 0:44:45nearly all working age benefits.
0:44:45 > 0:44:49That gets harsher, the faster inflation rises.
0:44:49 > 0:44:50The Chancellor should definitely do something about
0:44:50 > 0:44:53that when he stands up at the budget.
0:44:53 > 0:44:55Meanwhile, farmers, a big part of rural life, face
0:44:55 > 0:45:00unprecedented change with Brexit.
0:45:00 > 0:45:02They are worried their produce will be undercut by cheap
0:45:02 > 0:45:04foreign imports.
0:45:04 > 0:45:08They may be little communities, but they have big questions.
0:45:08 > 0:45:10It is hoped the Chancellor won't overlook them when
0:45:10 > 0:45:14he delivers his budget next week.
0:45:14 > 0:45:16You'll be all right.
0:45:16 > 0:45:24At least you're close to the pub.
0:45:24 > 0:45:29George, you are deaf minister with a keen interest in this. There has
0:45:29 > 0:45:36been talk of rural proofing all policies in the past, hasn't there?
0:45:36 > 0:45:41Still this criticism stands.A lot of this is demographic change. You
0:45:41 > 0:45:45have an ageing population in rural communities. One of the challenges
0:45:45 > 0:45:48is getting the right kind of affordable housing for young
0:45:48 > 0:45:52families. That would help the village school, shops, all sorts of
0:45:52 > 0:45:58things. Part of the key with our villages is to enable incremental
0:45:58 > 0:46:01modest extensions to those villages with affordable houses so you can
0:46:01 > 0:46:05slightly change the demographic and get more younger people there and
0:46:05 > 0:46:08improve the population. There has been a lot of work done to try to
0:46:08 > 0:46:15safeguard post offices. £2 billion has been spent on rural post offices
0:46:15 > 0:46:20in the last seven years. And some 3000 have been protected where they
0:46:20 > 0:46:26are the last shop in the village or a community. There is no programme
0:46:26 > 0:46:30of systematic post office closure, as there was under Gordon Brown. We
0:46:30 > 0:46:35scrapped all of that. But the ultimate solution is to try to get a
0:46:35 > 0:46:40change to the demographic.You were an adviser to Gordon Brown. I seem
0:46:40 > 0:46:49to recall you even had a rural czar. We are still left with people...One
0:46:49 > 0:46:52of the big problems we are facing in our rural communities is actually
0:46:52 > 0:47:00there is a higher incidence of low pay in rural areas. It is not just
0:47:00 > 0:47:04on housing, although it is a big issue. You have got this additional
0:47:04 > 0:47:08disadvantaged in rural communities of the low pay making the housing
0:47:08 > 0:47:13more and more unaffordable. You can't deal with just the housing.
0:47:13 > 0:47:18You have to look at getting in the infrastructure in place. And
0:47:18 > 0:47:22employment as well. To keep our young people in our region, never
0:47:22 > 0:47:27mind just the rural communities. George, I want to make the most of
0:47:27 > 0:47:32the fact we have you here as farming Minister. On that point, we have
0:47:32 > 0:47:36heard this in select committee hearings, farmers very concerned
0:47:36 > 0:47:45they could be new trade deals which allow cheap produce, livestock
0:47:45 > 0:47:49raised, -- livestock raised at lower standards than in the UK,
0:47:49 > 0:47:52undercutting and ultimately destroying them?We have high
0:47:52 > 0:48:00standards of food safety and animal welfare. We will protect that.Is
0:48:00 > 0:48:03this clear in government, but this is something Michael Gove wants to
0:48:03 > 0:48:09do?What you can do in these sort of negotiations is, it is possible to
0:48:09 > 0:48:13say that he will do a free-trade agreement, allow some produce in,
0:48:13 > 0:48:18provided the meat equivalent standards to the UK. It is a common
0:48:18 > 0:48:22thing in trade negotiations. We had similar things with Canada. We
0:48:22 > 0:48:26enabled them to sell some products here provided it is at the same
0:48:26 > 0:48:32standard as ours. That is quite common.Our major market for a
0:48:32 > 0:48:36farming produce is the European Union. Actually the outcome of the
0:48:36 > 0:48:41negotiations in relation to the EU - UK in the future is what will matter
0:48:41 > 0:48:46to our livestock farmers. Keeping the standards as well, so that we
0:48:46 > 0:48:51have the related standard. I know the debate about the chlorinated
0:48:51 > 0:48:56chicken in the US is something we simply don't want to see in the UK.
0:48:56 > 0:49:01But we've got to make sure that our farmers have access.That is the
0:49:01 > 0:49:05stuff going the other way. That is the big thing for Elan producers in
0:49:05 > 0:49:09the south-west. They were saying before the select committee a couple
0:49:09 > 0:49:14of weeks ago that if they don't get the tariff free access, it will be
0:49:14 > 0:49:18cataclysmic debarred from them. Can you guarantee they will and if so
0:49:18 > 0:49:23how will you achieve it?Trade cuts both ways. With the European Union
0:49:23 > 0:49:29we have a trade deficit of 60 billion plus a year. There are
0:49:29 > 0:49:32dangers producers of bacon, Iris producers of beef, Spanish producers
0:49:32 > 0:49:38of tomatoes, French producers of wine, who desperately need access to
0:49:38 > 0:49:42the UK market. That is why I am confident we can do the free-trade
0:49:42 > 0:49:46agreement. We have similar regulatory structures, identical at
0:49:46 > 0:49:51the moment. They will not be changed in a hurry. It is quite possible to
0:49:51 > 0:49:53recognise the equivalent and put in place a comprehensive customs
0:49:53 > 0:50:04agreement.There is no simplicity. We saw from the sauce me scandal
0:50:04 > 0:50:11there are cross-border supply chains. A Danish bacon producer
0:50:11 > 0:50:16bring their pork to Cornwall to produce their bacon here. It is not
0:50:16 > 0:50:20as if we can go, it's dead simple, it will be sorted because they need
0:50:20 > 0:50:32us. There are 27 under -- other countries.It is in their interests
0:50:32 > 0:50:33to do that free-trade agreement.
0:50:33 > 0:50:36Crowdfunding - if you haven't heard of it, expect to soon.
0:50:36 > 0:50:43It is the latest way of raising money for projects.
0:50:43 > 0:50:46Rather than go to the bank for a loan, people with new business
0:50:46 > 0:50:49ideas increasingly go online and ask people to pledge money.
0:50:49 > 0:50:50It's not just businesses trying to get people
0:50:51 > 0:50:52to invest directly in projects.
0:50:52 > 0:50:54Councils grappling with an ever tighter squeeze on the public purse
0:50:54 > 0:50:59are seizing the opportunity, too.
0:50:59 > 0:51:04Take a Plymouth Street with a long history. A building that became a
0:51:04 > 0:51:09derelict eyesore.And some locals with a vision. And it's now a
0:51:09 > 0:51:19vibrant community space. It hosts activities from yoga to African
0:51:19 > 0:51:23drumming to Cub Scouts, thanks to a crowdfunding project. Cash pledges
0:51:23 > 0:51:26from people in the area and a helping hand from Plymouth City
0:51:26 > 0:51:34Council.We knew once we had got 25% of our target in, they would chime
0:51:34 > 0:51:41in with 5000, which is 50% of our target. That was a game changer when
0:51:41 > 0:51:44that £5,000 turned up into our account. We could see the finish
0:51:44 > 0:51:47line.Plymouth was the first council in the country to partner with South
0:51:47 > 0:51:58West -based cried fund .co .uk. We all know local authorities are under
0:51:58 > 0:52:01financial pressure. Is it there to replace things that you should be
0:52:01 > 0:52:07doing?For this particular fund it is about spending it in a way the
0:52:07 > 0:52:10community want to spend it, and using crowd fonder as an indicator
0:52:10 > 0:52:17for what projects they like to see. That doesn't preclude statutory
0:52:17 > 0:52:22projects. If they went up and people were willing to back in their own
0:52:22 > 0:52:27money, which sometimes they are. Equally we can place towards those.
0:52:27 > 0:52:32Towards library works, road changes. If the community are behind it, we
0:52:32 > 0:52:37can pledge to it.Cried fund a Plymouth has hit its million mark.
0:52:37 > 0:52:41The South West councils are following suit. In Dorset, a cried
0:52:41 > 0:52:45from the platform has been used for youth service funding. In Cornwall,
0:52:45 > 0:52:53the council is getting involved in projects like this. On a Roger
0:52:53 > 0:52:56largerscale in London, crowdfunding has been used for things like
0:52:56 > 0:53:01libraries, with political backing from the top.Help you make a
0:53:01 > 0:53:06difference in your local area.What is the thinking of Cornwall about
0:53:06 > 0:53:10claims authorities are crowdfunding their way out of a financial crisis?
0:53:10 > 0:53:15That is not what we are doing. We're not asking the crowd or the
0:53:15 > 0:53:19communities to fund statutory services. This has added value to
0:53:19 > 0:53:24it. And things community really want to get involved in.Baguette union
0:53:24 > 0:53:33corner, this woman was part of the crowdfunding team for the Council.
0:53:33 > 0:53:38She is clear there is a lying on how and what councils should fund.It is
0:53:38 > 0:53:43a tricky line. The money Plymouth City Council pledge comes from
0:53:43 > 0:53:49developers. It is not a budget that has been cut from somewhere else is
0:53:49 > 0:53:56to make savings.It has been great opening up union corner. We have
0:53:56 > 0:54:00seen changes in behaviour.This part of Plymouth has high deprivation
0:54:00 > 0:54:06levels. It has a licensed sex trade. One of those shots as gone since
0:54:06 > 0:54:12union corner open. Have you noticed the area changing?Yeah, three
0:54:12 > 0:54:17businesses have opened.As communities benefit and cried fund
0:54:17 > 0:54:20Plymouth celebrates a £1 million milestone, any plans to extend the
0:54:20 > 0:54:26things it likes to fund would be a political decision.
0:54:26 > 0:54:31In a statement since that peace was shot, Plymouth City Council said
0:54:31 > 0:54:35they do not use crowdfunding for a statutory services and have no plans
0:54:35 > 0:54:41to do so. Claire, it struck me watching that peace, you have a
0:54:41 > 0:54:45Conservative council, a Lib Dem led council and a labourer may also in,
0:54:45 > 0:54:50this is marvellous. It is the Labour may who is making the most thorough
0:54:50 > 0:54:58use of this. -- Labour mayor. For libraries, that seems staggering,
0:54:58 > 0:55:03doesn't it?The crowdfunding in Plymouth was actually started under
0:55:03 > 0:55:11Labour. We are fully in favour of supporting communities developing
0:55:11 > 0:55:18projects in their communities like the one we saw just now. And
0:55:18 > 0:55:21facilitating those, helping those work. Adding something extra, as was
0:55:21 > 0:55:25said in the peace. That is the important part.What is the
0:55:25 > 0:55:35difference between Jacob Rees-Mogg saying people providing food for
0:55:35 > 0:55:42food banks is uplifting, and crowdfunding? People on the left
0:55:42 > 0:55:46jumped on Jacob Rees-Mogg and said it was outrageous.This is the point
0:55:46 > 0:55:52about statutory services at what we as a society, as a whole, should be
0:55:52 > 0:55:55supporting people. We have seen the cuts to local government. They have
0:55:55 > 0:56:02been dramatic. There are statutory services. They are statutory for a
0:56:02 > 0:56:06reason. They shouldn't be subject to whether or not people are
0:56:06 > 0:56:13fund-raising. The point being fund raising provide that additional --
0:56:13 > 0:56:15those additional pieces. People being
0:56:15 > 0:56:18those additional pieces. People being able to eat is not an extra.
0:56:18 > 0:56:22At some point a line is crossed. I can see that you have got a
0:56:22 > 0:56:26playground at one end of the spectrum. Statutory services at the
0:56:26 > 0:56:31other. A lot of people would say that libraries are core services
0:56:31 > 0:56:37that people traditionally expect local authorities to provide?I
0:56:37 > 0:56:42would say that as well. I would want libraries to because services. But
0:56:42 > 0:56:47the other point, what we are also dealing with, is the cuts that have
0:56:47 > 0:56:51happened to local government. When you get down to the bone, if it is
0:56:51 > 0:56:55about providing a care service, or a library, you have to provide the
0:56:55 > 0:57:00care service. You have to make sure those statutory services are in
0:57:00 > 0:57:04place. Rightly or wrongly, big libraries aren't necessarily seen as
0:57:04 > 0:57:08statutory.I don't think it is new to have fund-raising appeals for
0:57:08 > 0:57:14certain projects. 30 years ago a Leisure Centre in my constituency
0:57:14 > 0:57:18had private fundraising to raise money towards the local athletics
0:57:18 > 0:57:21track. They have got a similar fundraising appeal now done through
0:57:21 > 0:57:25crowdfunding to raise an amount to refurbish their swimming pool. I
0:57:25 > 0:57:28think these operations have got more authenticity when they are done by a
0:57:28 > 0:57:34community trust or a particular organisation, a charity that is
0:57:34 > 0:57:38behind a project. But equally, if a local authority getting involved can
0:57:38 > 0:57:41help get more people engaged, I don't have a problem. But I think it
0:57:41 > 0:57:46should really be for capital assets, community assets, where people know
0:57:46 > 0:57:49where their money is going and know that it is not going to be
0:57:49 > 0:57:54displacing other activities.Is there a line in your view that
0:57:54 > 0:58:01shouldn't be crossed?I think with libraries, that is probably on the
0:58:01 > 0:58:04borderline. The truth is that library usage has been going down as
0:58:04 > 0:58:07more people have access to the Internet and they are not using
0:58:07 > 0:58:11libraries as much. Local authorities do have quite a dilemma about
0:58:11 > 0:58:16whether they keep those libraries open. In many cases local town
0:58:16 > 0:58:20councils have taken them on because they have judged they are an
0:58:20 > 0:58:25important asset. In some cases town councils will move their offices
0:58:25 > 0:58:28into libraries to give them an additional function and more
0:58:28 > 0:58:32revenue. There are a lot of different ways to do this. Things
0:58:32 > 0:58:35like sporting facilities and community assets is what it should
0:58:35 > 0:58:37really do. Time for a round-up of the political
0:58:37 > 0:58:48week in 60 seconds. South West Headteachers have signed
0:58:48 > 0:58:54a letter urging the chance to increase funding for schools. The
0:58:54 > 0:58:58Humphrey Davies School joined the delegation to Downing Street.I know
0:58:58 > 0:59:01schools that are cutting back and are not able to offer the full
0:59:01 > 0:59:06curriculum. I have had to go through redundancy processes.Somerset's out
0:59:06 > 0:59:14of hours GP service is being asked...Is easier to do that than
0:59:14 > 0:59:17have patients waiting for hours and potentially not getting assessed.
0:59:17 > 0:59:22Could South West water end up back in public hands? It is only a matter
0:59:22 > 0:59:27of time, according to this expert.I would actually be -- be very
0:59:27 > 0:59:29surprised if in five years these companies are still in private
0:59:29 > 0:59:34hands. And she was the first woman to take
0:59:34 > 0:59:38a seat in the House of Commons. Now almost 100 years on, the campaign to
0:59:38 > 0:59:44build a statue to Plymouth's Nancy Astor.It is about time we started
0:59:44 > 0:59:51celebrating this important first. George, education funding a massive
0:59:51 > 0:59:55issue during the election. Shortly after the election the government
0:59:55 > 0:59:59said it had listened and come up with a solution. This week we have
0:59:59 > 1:00:02seen Headteachers from across the country saying, you have entirely
1:00:02 > 1:00:08failed to do that?I don't accept that.They are the experts, and
1:00:08 > 1:00:14they?People will always want more money. There is always ways of
1:00:14 > 1:00:17spending money. If you look at what actually happened, it has been an
1:00:17 > 1:00:20historic injustice with rural communities getting less. We changed
1:00:20 > 1:00:26the formula to rebalance that, to add... If these Headteachers were
1:00:26 > 1:00:30unhappy and the parents are unhappy, and your councils are unhappy, it
1:00:30 > 1:00:36causes trouble for you as a government, as individual MPs? My
1:00:36 > 1:00:40view is that we responded to the fact that there was concern at some
1:00:40 > 1:00:43schools -- about some schools were going to have a reduction in the
1:00:43 > 1:00:50budget. Up to 1%. Straight after that we put an extra £1.3 billion in
1:00:50 > 1:00:54in order to ensure that all schools get an increase. Those schools will
1:00:54 > 1:00:58have a cut as a result of the changes.You would spend more money,
1:00:58 > 1:01:06where will you find it?This is investing in our future in these
1:01:06 > 1:01:11schools. What you are not saying is that actually these schools are
1:01:11 > 1:01:16seeing real terms cuts. That is going on year-on-year on year. We
1:01:16 > 1:01:20are facing a crisis into the future with the education system. We are
1:01:20 > 1:01:23talking about community funding, we are seeing all schools having to go
1:01:23 > 1:01:27to parents to ask for money because they have too. Not for additional
1:01:27 > 1:01:30things. It is a real crisis that we are facing.
1:01:30 > 1:01:32Thank
1:01:39 > 1:01:42Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -
1:01:42 > 1:01:45he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be
1:01:45 > 1:01:47hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes
1:01:47 > 1:01:48of the public.
1:01:48 > 1:01:52But when it comes to the economy, do people trust
1:01:52 > 1:01:53the Conservatives, or Labour?
1:01:53 > 1:01:58Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.
1:01:58 > 1:02:06MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.
1:02:06 > 1:02:09All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out
1:02:09 > 1:02:11what he has been cooking up in his Budget.
1:02:11 > 1:02:14So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here
1:02:14 > 1:02:17who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,
1:02:17 > 1:02:24Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?
1:02:24 > 1:02:27No 7.
1:02:27 > 1:02:33Which one's Tory?
1:02:39 > 1:02:40I voted Conservative for the last two
1:02:40 > 1:02:45elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.
1:02:45 > 1:02:47If I said to you which of these characters
1:02:47 > 1:02:50would you trust with the economy, what would you say?
1:02:50 > 1:02:52The one who's currently running it, because they
1:02:52 > 1:02:53seem to be bringing the deficit down.
1:02:53 > 1:02:54Labour.
1:02:54 > 1:02:55Why?
1:02:55 > 1:02:58Because I'm an NHS worker.
1:02:58 > 1:03:01For me, it's just about spending, public spending.
1:03:01 > 1:03:06Labour always overspend.
1:03:06 > 1:03:12John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked
1:03:12 > 1:03:17and I think we need a radical re-think.
1:03:17 > 1:03:20Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:20 > 1:03:21No one.
1:03:21 > 1:03:23Why?
1:03:23 > 1:03:28Because they never come up trumps with anything that they
1:03:28 > 1:03:30reckon they're going to do.
1:03:30 > 1:03:32If I had to make you choose one of them?
1:03:32 > 1:03:34The man that's there, Hammond.
1:03:34 > 1:03:35I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a
1:03:35 > 1:03:41bag of marbles or a plastic ball!
1:03:41 > 1:03:42Hello, Bob.
1:03:42 > 1:03:44Oh, hello.
1:03:44 > 1:03:45Who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:45 > 1:03:46Oh, the Conservatives.
1:03:46 > 1:03:48Do you? Why's that?
1:03:48 > 1:03:51I just think they're better for the small businessman.
1:03:51 > 1:03:53We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,
1:03:53 > 1:03:56somebody in there with balls to say, right,
1:03:56 > 1:03:57that's the direction we are
1:03:57 > 1:03:59going in, that's what we are going to do.
1:03:59 > 1:04:01I've got balls!
1:04:01 > 1:04:03What are you doing?
1:04:03 > 1:04:10Putting balls in holes by the look of it!
1:04:10 > 1:04:13I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,
1:04:13 > 1:04:15but I say that without a great deal of conviction.
1:04:15 > 1:04:18Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the
1:04:18 > 1:04:19streets, the strikes, the unions.
1:04:19 > 1:04:23Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money
1:04:23 > 1:04:29and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.
1:04:29 > 1:04:32I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it
1:04:32 > 1:04:36is clearing up time here at the diner and time
1:04:36 > 1:04:38to reveal the Moodbox.
1:04:38 > 1:04:39Take it away, Tim.
1:04:39 > 1:04:42As you can say it was a close-run thing, but
1:04:42 > 1:04:44like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and
1:04:44 > 1:04:51counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.
1:04:51 > 1:04:55Oh, chip, thank you very much!
1:04:55 > 1:04:57That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,
1:04:57 > 1:05:00at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.
1:05:00 > 1:05:03But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view
1:05:03 > 1:05:05the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look
1:05:05 > 1:05:07at some recent polling.
1:05:07 > 1:05:09Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back
1:05:09 > 1:05:13when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,
1:05:13 > 1:05:16when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many
1:05:16 > 1:05:17other areas.
1:05:17 > 1:05:21The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed
1:05:21 > 1:05:23the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,
1:05:23 > 1:05:28although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.
1:05:28 > 1:05:32And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,
1:05:32 > 1:05:37showing that while the gap between Theresa May
1:05:37 > 1:05:39and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election
1:05:39 > 1:05:41period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,
1:05:41 > 1:05:43still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or
1:05:43 > 1:05:44even slightly ahead.
1:05:44 > 1:05:47And when it comes to how people intend to vote
1:05:47 > 1:05:49while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a
1:05:49 > 1:05:51big Labour lead yet.
1:05:51 > 1:05:53Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"
1:05:53 > 1:05:57inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be
1:05:57 > 1:06:0010 or 15 points ahead.
1:06:00 > 1:06:03Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair
1:06:03 > 1:06:06and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely
1:06:06 > 1:06:13wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?
1:06:13 > 1:06:21Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the
1:06:21 > 1:06:26economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the
1:06:26 > 1:06:32Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds
1:06:32 > 1:06:35of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and
1:06:35 > 1:06:41imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national
1:06:41 > 1:06:44security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many
1:06:44 > 1:06:49circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it
1:06:49 > 1:06:55for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting
1:06:55 > 1:07:00and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We
1:07:00 > 1:07:07underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning
1:07:07 > 1:07:11Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The
1:07:11 > 1:07:16government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over
1:07:16 > 1:07:20resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of
1:07:20 > 1:07:23people are having a really tough time and looking at the government
1:07:23 > 1:07:27to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems
1:07:27 > 1:07:35to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.
1:07:35 > 1:07:40Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I
1:07:40 > 1:07:45think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think
1:07:45 > 1:07:48Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they
1:07:48 > 1:07:54have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn
1:07:54 > 1:08:00had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.
1:08:00 > 1:08:07They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.
1:08:07 > 1:08:11Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to
1:08:11 > 1:08:16build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think
1:08:16 > 1:08:21they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the
1:08:21 > 1:08:27next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The
1:08:27 > 1:08:30fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot
1:08:30 > 1:08:35of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they
1:08:35 > 1:08:39certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very
1:08:39 > 1:08:45well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I
1:08:45 > 1:08:50am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to
1:08:50 > 1:08:57that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy
1:08:57 > 1:09:05Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy
1:09:05 > 1:09:08Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn
1:09:08 > 1:09:14to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,
1:09:14 > 1:09:18despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has
1:09:18 > 1:09:25the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have
1:09:25 > 1:09:31just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that
1:09:31 > 1:09:35Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave
1:09:35 > 1:09:42Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed
1:09:42 > 1:09:48people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have
1:09:48 > 1:09:52to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context
1:09:52 > 1:10:00of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future
1:10:00 > 1:10:11unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,
1:10:11 > 1:10:16unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that
1:10:16 > 1:10:21against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think
1:10:21 > 1:10:24about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,
1:10:24 > 1:10:28they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they
1:10:28 > 1:10:33have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop
1:10:33 > 1:10:40a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also
1:10:40 > 1:10:43this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be
1:10:43 > 1:10:49talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to
1:10:49 > 1:10:52you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be
1:10:52 > 1:10:58the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so
1:10:58 > 1:11:01ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.
1:11:01 > 1:11:06They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they
1:11:06 > 1:11:11offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December
1:11:11 > 1:11:15council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in
1:11:15 > 1:11:20conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get
1:11:20 > 1:11:25that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he
1:11:25 > 1:11:28revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a
1:11:28 > 1:11:38more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers
1:11:38 > 1:11:43as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to
1:11:43 > 1:11:50keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce
1:11:50 > 1:11:57Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested
1:11:57 > 1:12:04that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's
1:12:04 > 1:12:08another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime
1:12:08 > 1:12:13Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A
1:12:13 > 1:12:17strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where
1:12:17 > 1:12:23we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the
1:12:23 > 1:12:27European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on
1:12:27 > 1:12:40it until we are satisfied with the next
1:12:46 > 1:12:49stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who
1:12:49 > 1:12:51could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that
1:12:51 > 1:12:53might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have
1:12:53 > 1:12:56not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the
1:12:56 > 1:12:59astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is
1:12:59 > 1:13:03going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the
1:13:03 > 1:13:07negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in
1:13:07 > 1:13:10terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will
1:13:10 > 1:13:16look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,
1:13:16 > 1:13:21but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet
1:13:21 > 1:13:25Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each
1:13:25 > 1:13:30other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.
1:13:30 > 1:13:31That's all for today.
1:13:31 > 1:13:34Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.
1:13:34 > 1:13:37Until then, bye bye.