:00:39. > :00:44.The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday
:00:45. > :00:49.morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%
:00:50. > :00:55.pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who
:00:56. > :01:00.credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine
:01:01. > :01:05.tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?
:01:06. > :01:12.Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed
:01:13. > :01:16.Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will
:01:17. > :01:24.be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by
:01:25. > :01:32.In the South, water everywhere but in Berks,
:01:33. > :01:43.had on the capital, its politics and those who met him.
:01:44. > :01:49.With me, three scruffy eternal students. They would celebrate if
:01:50. > :01:53.they achieved a C+. But they are all we could afford and there will be no
:01:54. > :01:56.pay rise for them. They will be glued to an electronic device
:01:57. > :02:02.throughout the programme and if we are lucky they might stop there
:02:03. > :02:06.internet shopping and tweet something intelligent. But don't
:02:07. > :02:10.hold your breath. Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last
:02:11. > :02:14.week, storms were battering Britain, the East Coast was hit by the worst
:02:15. > :02:17.tidal surge in more than a century, thousands of people had to be
:02:18. > :02:22.evacuated and Nelson Mandela died. The downed the news agenda was the
:02:23. > :02:28.small matter of George Osborne's Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his
:02:29. > :02:37.takeaways and his first opportunity to announce some economic cheer
:02:38. > :02:48.It might be winter outside, but in the studios it is awesome. Autumn
:02:49. > :02:51.Statement time. -- autumn. This is a moment of TV history. Normally when
:02:52. > :02:55.the Chancellor delivers these statements, he has to say the
:02:56. > :03:00.economy is actually a lot worse than everyone predicted. This time, he
:03:01. > :03:01.can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted A
:03:02. > :03:06.better than everybody predicted. A lot better.
:03:07. > :03:15.Britain is currently growing faster than any other major advanced
:03:16. > :03:20.economy. Faster than France, which is contracting, faster than Germany,
:03:21. > :03:24.faster even than America. At this Autumn Statement last year, there
:03:25. > :03:28.were repeated predictions that borrowing would go up. Instead,
:03:29. > :03:32.borrowing is down, and down significantly more than forecast.
:03:33. > :03:38.But George Osborne said the good numbers still mean more tough
:03:39. > :03:42.decisions. We will not give up in giving in our country's debts. We
:03:43. > :03:45.will not spend the money from lower borrowing. We will not squander the
:03:46. > :03:54.harder and games of the British people. -- hard earned gains. In
:03:55. > :04:00.other news, further cuts to government departments. The state
:04:01. > :04:04.pension age will increase in the 2040s, affecting people in their 40s
:04:05. > :04:08.now. There were some goodies, like discounted business rates for small
:04:09. > :04:12.businesses, free school meals for infants, favoured by the Lib Dems,
:04:13. > :04:16.and those marriage tax breaks below that by the Tories. But, as with all
:04:17. > :04:21.big fiscal events, it takes a while for the details to sink in.
:04:22. > :04:27.The marriage tax allowance is a long-standing commitment that he
:04:28. > :04:32.could not abandon. It does help those families were only one goes
:04:33. > :04:36.out to work. It does not go to higher rate taxpayers, I don't
:04:37. > :04:39.think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I
:04:40. > :04:45.am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There
:04:46. > :04:50.is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday
:04:51. > :04:56.Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?
:04:57. > :05:02.In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a
:05:03. > :05:09.red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more
:05:10. > :05:13.than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying
:05:14. > :05:18.about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in
:05:19. > :05:21.terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting
:05:22. > :05:28.the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was
:05:29. > :05:32.very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last
:05:33. > :05:37.time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by
:05:38. > :05:43.now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to
:05:44. > :05:47.hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the
:05:48. > :05:50.Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are
:05:51. > :05:54.significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be
:05:55. > :05:57.just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also
:05:58. > :06:01.worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been
:06:02. > :06:10.revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of
:06:11. > :06:13.budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very
:06:14. > :06:16.much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that
:06:17. > :06:19.it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the
:06:20. > :06:24.years after the next general election. As the day draws to a
:06:25. > :06:27.close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the
:06:28. > :06:34.graphics budget of my colleague, graphics budget of my colleague
:06:35. > :06:39.Robert Preston. It's as good as it gets these days, I don't think the
:06:40. > :06:47.viewers will mind. It's very Sunday Politics, if I might say. That is
:06:48. > :06:52.very worrying. Was this a watershed for George
:06:53. > :06:56.Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed Balls? We can all make the case that
:06:57. > :07:00.it is the wrong sort of recovery, a consumer led recovery. People are
:07:01. > :07:04.spending money they don't have. At the end of the day, it for George
:07:05. > :07:09.Osborne, it is growth, the first time he has been able to talk about
:07:10. > :07:13.growth. It allows him to control the baseline, the fiscal debate for the
:07:14. > :07:17.next generation. For Ed Balls, nearly not a good performance. But
:07:18. > :07:21.don't write this man off. Judging by Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it
:07:22. > :07:30.all is, said he did a good interview this morning on a rival TV channel.
:07:31. > :07:33.I feel the fact that the Tories hate Ed Balls so passionately is probably
:07:34. > :07:40.a good reason that they should hang onto him, in that Labour sends his
:07:41. > :07:46.effectiveness. May be the Tories hope that they hold on to him as
:07:47. > :07:49.well? A lot of people shouting at someone and mocking their speech
:07:50. > :07:52.impediment, that is politics that doesn't make me want to engage. The
:07:53. > :07:57.takeaway will be lots of people thinking that none of these people
:07:58. > :08:01.are people they like. Who is the main heckler on the Labour front
:08:02. > :08:06.bench West remarked I suppose he can't cast any stones. It would be
:08:07. > :08:09.easier to sympathise with him, if it were not that David Cameron went
:08:10. > :08:15.through a similar situation and John Bercow did not step in to stop the
:08:16. > :08:23.wall of noise. It was guaranteed a good happen to a Labour politician.
:08:24. > :08:30.It's painful to remove him because he had a Parliamentary following and
:08:31. > :08:35.he will kick up a fuss. I think he's much more pragmatic on issues like
:08:36. > :08:40.business than Ed Miliband. I'm told he wasn't keen on the energy price
:08:41. > :08:45.freeze. The problem with Ed Balls, to have the first words that you
:08:46. > :08:50.say, the Chancellor is in denial, after he is presiding over growth,
:08:51. > :08:54.it means nobody is listening to you. Who would replace him? Certainly not
:08:55. > :08:58.Alistair Darling, the side of the referendum and even afterwards. Ed
:08:59. > :09:01.Balls did get a roasting in the press and on Twitter. He seemed to
:09:02. > :09:05.disappear from public view following the Autumn Statement. But a little
:09:06. > :09:08.bird tells me he managed one interview this morning before he
:09:09. > :09:12.went off to an all-important piano recital this afternoon. Watch out,
:09:13. > :09:16.Jools Holland, he could be after your job. How bad was his
:09:17. > :09:22.performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The
:09:23. > :09:28.Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are
:09:29. > :09:38.defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the
:09:39. > :09:44.books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will
:09:45. > :09:51.do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just
:09:52. > :09:58.the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit
:09:59. > :10:07.in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie
:10:08. > :10:14.is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,
:10:15. > :10:19.in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that
:10:20. > :10:23.your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of
:10:24. > :10:29.your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George
:10:30. > :10:32.Osborne has a superior argument. I think Ed Balls will certainly trying
:10:33. > :10:36.his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living
:10:37. > :10:39.crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.
:10:40. > :10:44.That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.
:10:45. > :10:47.One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking
:10:48. > :10:53.back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A
:10:54. > :10:57.Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong argument to make,
:10:58. > :11:06.unfortunately it was not made well in the chamber today. Quoting the
:11:07. > :11:10.Daily Mail, this is two poor performances. A quote that I can't
:11:11. > :11:16.use because it uses too many four letter words. Baroness Armstrong,
:11:17. > :11:20.speaking at Progress, a former Labour Cabinet minister, we are not
:11:21. > :11:23.sufficiently concerned about public spending, how we would pay for what
:11:24. > :11:28.we are talking about. Quite a battering? There were two sets of
:11:29. > :11:34.quotes you were giving. The couple were about the strategy for tackling
:11:35. > :11:39.public expenditure. I think it's fair that we talk about that. The
:11:40. > :11:50.rest were pretty unattributed, nameless sources. You have never
:11:51. > :11:55.given and of the record briefing? We have conversations off camera, but I
:11:56. > :12:00.don't think you have a wealth of evidence to say that somehow Ed
:12:01. > :12:04.Balls's arguments were wrong. He was making the point that, ultimately,
:12:05. > :12:09.it is a government that does not have its finger on the pulse about
:12:10. > :12:12.what most of your viewers are concerned about, that wages are
:12:13. > :12:16.being squeezed and prices are getting higher and higher. You have
:12:17. > :12:23.had time to study the Autumn Statement. What part of it does
:12:24. > :12:28.Labour disagree with? It is a very big question. I think the overall
:12:29. > :12:32.strategy the Autumn Statement is setting out does not deal with the
:12:33. > :12:37.fundamental problems in the economy. What measures do you disagree with?
:12:38. > :12:39.A lot of it is the absence of measures we would have put in if we
:12:40. > :12:42.were doing the Autumn Statement. If were doing the Autumn Statement If
:12:43. > :12:45.you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to
:12:46. > :12:47.get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of
:12:48. > :12:51.doing that is on infrastructure We doing that is on infrastructure. We
:12:52. > :12:56.believe in bringing forward 's investment and housing, getting some
:12:57. > :13:04.of the fundamentals right in our economy. By planting, the business
:13:05. > :13:13.lending we have to do. We have seen a lamentable failing. There are big
:13:14. > :13:14.structural reforms that we need. Ultimately, the public are concerned
:13:15. > :13:19.about the cost of living crisis. about the cost of living crisis
:13:20. > :13:24.That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above
:13:25. > :13:29.all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing
:13:30. > :13:35.to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare
:13:36. > :13:38.cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.
:13:39. > :13:43.You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,
:13:44. > :13:48.correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are
:13:49. > :13:52.going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not
:13:53. > :13:58.include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare
:13:59. > :14:02.cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not
:14:03. > :14:08.in the short-term plan because, as we believe, a triple lock is a good
:14:09. > :14:11.idea. In the longer term, if you are talking about structural welfare
:14:12. > :14:14.issues, you do have to think about pensions because they have to be
:14:15. > :14:19.sustainable if we are living longer. I think that is about the
:14:20. > :14:25.careful management. Let me show you what Ed Balls said on this programme
:14:26. > :14:28.at the start of the summer. As for pensioners, I think this is a real
:14:29. > :14:32.question. George Osborne is going to announce his cap in two weeks time.
:14:33. > :14:37.I don't know if he will exclude pension spending or including. Our
:14:38. > :14:41.plan is to include it. Pension spending would be included in the
:14:42. > :14:46.welfare cap? That is our plan, exactly what I just said. Over the
:14:47. > :14:51.long-term, if you have a serious welfare cap structural welfare
:14:52. > :14:54.issues, over 20, 30, 40 year period, you can't say that we will
:14:55. > :15:02.not work and pensions as part of that. Pensions would be part of the
:15:03. > :15:09.Labour cap? In the longer term. What is the longer term? If you win 015?
:15:10. > :15:13.We want to stick with the triple lock on the pension, that is the
:15:14. > :15:16.Government approach to their short-term welfare cap. In the
:15:17. > :15:23.longer term, for example, on the winter fuel allowance, we should not
:15:24. > :15:26.necessarily be... There are lots of benefits... I understand that, I am
:15:27. > :15:27.talking about the basic state pension, is that part of your
:15:28. > :15:31.welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, pension, is that part of your
:15:32. > :15:35.welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30 40 welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40
:15:36. > :15:45.year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are
:15:46. > :15:48.writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions
:15:49. > :15:52.have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,
:15:53. > :15:55.if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at
:15:56. > :16:02.pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part
:16:03. > :16:07.of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long-term
:16:08. > :16:14.cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven t
:16:15. > :16:15.talking about 2015-16. We haven't seen the proposition the Government
:16:16. > :16:28.has put before us. You claim people of ?1600 worse off
:16:29. > :16:33.under the coalition. That is true when you compare to pay and prices.
:16:34. > :16:38.Can you confirm that calculation does not include the ?700 tax cut
:16:39. > :16:44.from raising the income tax threshold, huge savings on mortgages
:16:45. > :16:47.because of low interest or the freezing of council tax? It doesn't
:16:48. > :16:53.include the tax and benefit changes. If you do want to look at
:16:54. > :16:55.those, last year, the ISS said they could be making people worse off. It
:16:56. > :16:59.might not include those factors. could be making people worse off. It
:17:00. > :17:08.might not include those factors The VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child
:17:09. > :17:10.benefit cuts, they all add up. My understanding is that the ISS
:17:11. > :17:16.figures have said people are ?891 figures have said people are ?8 1
:17:17. > :17:23.worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have
:17:24. > :17:27.to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly
:17:28. > :17:33.the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was
:17:34. > :17:38.saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely
:17:39. > :17:43.out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?
:17:44. > :17:48.Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the
:17:49. > :17:51.long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are
:17:52. > :17:54.facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial
:17:55. > :18:02.Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.
:18:03. > :18:08.Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal
:18:09. > :18:13.debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?
:18:14. > :18:19.I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing
:18:20. > :18:25.more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a
:18:26. > :18:33.Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept
:18:34. > :18:39.that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn't
:18:40. > :18:44.sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this
:18:45. > :18:49.week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the
:18:50. > :18:54.country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult
:18:55. > :18:58.decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March
:18:59. > :19:05.projections work at for those -- Labour's plans. The March
:19:06. > :19:09.projections work at for those - for both business investment and
:19:10. > :19:16.exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround
:19:17. > :19:20.in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before
:19:21. > :19:24.politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have
:19:25. > :19:30.gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit
:19:31. > :19:34.investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have
:19:35. > :19:42.confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now
:19:43. > :19:49.under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The
:19:50. > :19:55.fall in business investment is because of the recession. The
:19:56. > :20:01.forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the
:20:02. > :20:07.independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans
:20:08. > :20:15.of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land
:20:16. > :20:18.Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are
:20:19. > :20:22.coming through now because of the confidence generated by this
:20:23. > :20:28.government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would
:20:29. > :20:33.increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our
:20:34. > :20:41.share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it
:20:42. > :20:46.stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I
:20:47. > :20:54.have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we
:20:55. > :21:00.would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would
:21:01. > :21:05.hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.
:21:06. > :21:11.Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,
:21:12. > :21:15.then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more
:21:16. > :21:23.than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.
:21:24. > :21:26.On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because
:21:27. > :21:30.the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed.
:21:31. > :21:34.eurozone markets, are depressed Many have just come out of
:21:35. > :21:37.recession. Or they are still in recession. If you look at exports to
:21:38. > :21:47.non-EU countries, they are up 30%. non-EU countries, they are up 3 %.
:21:48. > :21:52.120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for
:21:53. > :21:58.the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part
:21:59. > :22:03.of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is
:22:04. > :22:11.straightforward. House prices are now rising ten
:22:12. > :22:19.times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are
:22:20. > :22:23.rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average
:22:24. > :22:28.earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you
:22:29. > :22:32.would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month
:22:33. > :22:39.companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this
:22:40. > :22:43.demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to
:22:44. > :23:27.give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help
:23:28. > :23:37.to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as
:23:38. > :23:51.household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt
:23:52. > :23:56.reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not
:23:57. > :24:05.been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,
:24:06. > :24:17.even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --
:24:18. > :24:22.but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share
:24:23. > :24:28.in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The
:24:29. > :24:33.government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall
:24:34. > :24:43.economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating
:24:44. > :24:48.for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for
:24:49. > :24:53.wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people
:24:54. > :25:00.employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest
:25:01. > :25:05.risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending
:25:06. > :25:09.and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure
:25:10. > :25:16.you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election
:25:17. > :25:23.than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more
:25:24. > :25:27.people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better
:25:28. > :25:32.off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is
:25:33. > :25:36.access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe
:25:37. > :25:44.people will be. Compared to 2010. people will be. Compared to 201 .
:25:45. > :25:47.Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This is a credible measure.
:25:48. > :25:53.Now, what do you think the Education Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at
:25:54. > :25:56.school? Hard-working? Hand always up? Top of the class? Well, if he
:25:57. > :25:59.wasn't passionate about education then, he is now. In fact, since he
:26:00. > :26:06.took office, it seems he hasn't stopped working very hard indeed.
:26:07. > :26:10.When the coalition came to power, Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they
:26:11. > :26:13.were on a long march to reform education. Just like Mao, they faced
:26:14. > :26:19.a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion for new school places. They extended
:26:20. > :26:23.Labour's academy programme. There's now about 3,000 in England. But
:26:24. > :26:25.then, they marched even further creating free schools run by
:26:26. > :26:32.parents, funded by taxpayers. 174 parents, funded by taxpayers. 1 4
:26:33. > :26:35.have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give
:26:36. > :26:38.parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,
:26:39. > :26:41.currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.
:26:42. > :26:45.An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.
:26:46. > :26:53.Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia". But exam reforms
:26:54. > :26:56.didn't quite go to plan. Although GCSEs got harder, plans to replace
:26:57. > :27:00.A-levels had to be abandoned. Ultimately, the true test of these
:27:01. > :27:05.reforms will be what happens in the classroom. The person in charge of
:27:06. > :27:08.making sure those classrooms are up to scratch in England is the Chief
:27:09. > :27:13.Inspector Of Schools, head of Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins
:27:14. > :27:18.me now. Over the past 15 years, we have
:27:19. > :27:22.doubled spending on schools even allowing for inflation. By
:27:23. > :27:28.international standards, we are stagnating, why? I said last year
:27:29. > :27:38.that mediocrity had settled into the system. Too many children were
:27:39. > :27:44.coasting in schools, which is why we changed the grading structure, we
:27:45. > :27:48.removed that awful word, satisfactory. Saying that good is
:27:49. > :27:52.now the only acceptable standard and schools had a limited time in which
:27:53. > :27:58.to get to that. We are seeing gradually, it is difficult to say
:27:59. > :28:03.this in the week we have had the OECD report. Things have gradually
:28:04. > :28:08.improved. I will come onto that in a minute. Explain this. International
:28:09. > :28:10.comparisons show us flat-lining or even falling in some subjects,
:28:11. > :28:16.including science. For 20 years, our including science. For 20 years our
:28:17. > :28:20.domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece
:28:21. > :28:24.of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there
:28:25. > :28:30.a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak
:28:31. > :28:36.as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is
:28:37. > :28:46.actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is
:28:47. > :28:51.about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists
:28:52. > :28:55.conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things
:28:56. > :29:00.are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters
:29:01. > :29:08.were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th
:29:09. > :29:14.for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,
:29:15. > :29:19.Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or
:29:20. > :29:24.outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this
:29:25. > :29:27.level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last
:29:28. > :29:34.years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,
:29:35. > :29:39.absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.
:29:40. > :29:43.Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is
:29:44. > :29:44.making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually
:29:45. > :29:55.translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much
:29:56. > :29:59.up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good
:30:00. > :30:04.enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in
:30:05. > :30:09.GCSE and grade 2. We have to make sure that is maintained. The
:30:10. > :30:12.Government has based its reforms on similar reforms in Sweden. In
:30:13. > :30:16.opposition they were endlessly going to Stockholm to find out how it was
:30:17. > :30:24.done. Swedish schools are doing even worse than ours in the tables. Why
:30:25. > :30:28.are we copying failure? The secretary of state believes, and I
:30:29. > :30:33.actually believe, as somebody who has come from an academy model, that
:30:34. > :30:36.if you hand power and resources, you hand autonomy to the people on the
:30:37. > :30:42.ground, to the people in the classroom, in the corridors, in the
:30:43. > :30:46.playgrounds, things work. If you allow the great monoliths that used
:30:47. > :30:51.to have responsibility for education in the past to take control again,
:30:52. > :30:54.you will see a reverse in standards. You have got to actually empower
:30:55. > :31:00.those people that make the difference. That is why autonomy and
:31:01. > :31:03.freedom is important. We spent a lot of money moving what were local
:31:04. > :31:07.authority schools to become academies and new free school czar
:31:08. > :31:10.being set up as well. When the academies are pretty much the same
:31:11. > :31:14.level of autonomy, the free school is maybe a little bit more, the
:31:15. > :31:19.evidence we have had so far is that they don't really perform any better
:31:20. > :31:24.than local authority schools? Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they
:31:25. > :31:27.might even be doing worse? These are early days. We will say more about
:31:28. > :31:32.this on weapons they when we produce the annual report. The sponsored
:31:33. > :31:36.academies that took over the worst schools in the country, in the most
:31:37. > :31:41.difficult circumstances, in the most disadvantaged communities, are doing
:31:42. > :31:44.much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the
:31:45. > :31:50.They are doing GCSE equivalents the lass academic subjects question my
:31:51. > :31:54.cull OK, but they are doing better than previous schools. If you look
:31:55. > :32:07.at the top performing nations in the world, they focus on the quality of
:32:08. > :32:10.teaching. The best graduates coming to education. They professionally
:32:11. > :32:14.develop them. They make sure they spot the brightest talents and get
:32:15. > :32:18.them into positions as soon as possible. We have got to do the same
:32:19. > :32:24.if we are going to catch up with those jurisdictions. This isn't just
:32:25. > :32:28.a British problem. It seems to be a European problem. The East Asian
:32:29. > :32:31.countries now dominate the top of the tables. What's the most
:32:32. > :32:36.important lesson we should learn from East Asia? Attitudes to work.
:32:37. > :32:43.We need to make sure that we invest in good teachers, good leaders. We
:32:44. > :32:44.have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It s
:32:45. > :32:44.have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It's no
:32:45. > :32:49.the right attitudes to work. It s no good getting good people into the
:32:50. > :32:52.classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,
:32:53. > :33:00.disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers
:33:01. > :33:05.doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from
:33:06. > :33:08.that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government
:33:09. > :33:13.education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am
:33:14. > :33:19.independent, Ofsted is independent. I believe we are saying the right
:33:20. > :33:22.things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you
:33:23. > :33:27.are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.
:33:28. > :33:30.Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a
:33:31. > :33:36.pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become
:33:37. > :33:41.better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going
:33:42. > :33:44.to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do
:33:45. > :33:48.better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will
:33:49. > :33:52.also challenge government when we think they are going wrong. Many
:33:53. > :33:56.people in the education establishment think your primary
:33:57. > :34:02.purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into
:34:03. > :34:07.becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of
:34:08. > :34:11.academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are
:34:12. > :34:15.the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I
:34:16. > :34:23.am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see
:34:24. > :34:29.academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The
:34:30. > :34:35.study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise
:34:36. > :34:37.standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school
:34:38. > :34:41.leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody
:34:42. > :34:46.with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot
:34:47. > :34:49.air has been expounded on the issue of whether teachers should be
:34:50. > :34:53.qualified or not. If qualified teacher status was the gold
:34:54. > :35:01.standard, why is it that one in three teachers, one in three lessons
:35:02. > :35:05.that will observe are not good enough. Taught by qualified
:35:06. > :35:09.teachers. I've not yet met a headteacher that has not appointed
:35:10. > :35:13.by qualified staff when they cannot get qualified teachers. Their job is
:35:14. > :35:17.to make sure they get accredited as soon as possible and come up to
:35:18. > :35:22.scratch in the classroom. Do you support the use of unqualified
:35:23. > :35:26.teachers? I do. I have done it. If I could not get a maths, physics or
:35:27. > :35:28.modern languages teacher and I thought somebody straight from
:35:29. > :35:31.university, without qualified teachers start this, that they could
:35:32. > :35:36.communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the
:35:37. > :35:40.classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are
:35:41. > :35:43.going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to
:35:44. > :35:50.local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...
:35:51. > :35:54.New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.
:35:55. > :36:02.Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been
:36:03. > :36:06.examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and
:36:07. > :36:09.children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the
:36:10. > :36:12.secretary of state and it is something I will talk more about
:36:13. > :36:15.over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a
:36:16. > :36:21.school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new
:36:22. > :36:26.category, Her Majesty 's inspectors stay with that institution until it
:36:27. > :36:28.improves. Sometimes we don't see a school for five or seven years. That
:36:29. > :36:32.improves. Sometimes we don't see a is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted
:36:33. > :36:35.should pay a much greater part in monitoring the performance of
:36:36. > :36:43.schools between those inspections. Are you enjoying it? It is a tough
:36:44. > :36:49.job. Are you enjoying it? This is a tough job, but I enjoy it.
:36:50. > :36:52.Sometimes. You are watching Sunday Politics.
:36:53. > :36:54.Coming up in just over 20 minutes, Diane Abbott will be joining us. And
:36:55. > :37:15.we will have Welcome to Sunday Politics. On
:37:16. > :37:21.today's shawl, just 10% of the water quality in Berks meets quality
:37:22. > :37:23.standards. The environment agency is responsible for bringing the
:37:24. > :37:35.remaining 90% up to scratch but it is losing one in six of its staff.
:37:36. > :37:39.We are joined by the Labour MP for Southampton and the Conservative MP
:37:40. > :37:50.for sale. It is all about money in your pocket. `` Fairham. It is about
:37:51. > :37:56.getting people into work because when people are in work it is better
:37:57. > :38:00.for them. We have seen the private sector creates jobs and you have the
:38:01. > :38:05.big picture and economy rise which will drive the prosperity of the
:38:06. > :38:10.whole economy. You admit there is no feel`good? There are significant
:38:11. > :38:16.challenges but what the government has been able to do is because of
:38:17. > :38:24.the long`term view we have taken, we are cutting tax bills. If you look
:38:25. > :38:34.at disposable income, it has actually risen. We have cancelled
:38:35. > :38:38.the next increase in fuel duty, 20p a litre lower than it would have
:38:39. > :38:46.been. These are the sort of things the government can do. Getting the
:38:47. > :38:50.economy growing as it is, and the projections are faster than it was
:38:51. > :38:56.in the budget, that is the right way to get the economy and Britain
:38:57. > :39:02.going. The Conservatives are resurgent in Parliament and it is
:39:03. > :39:06.all working? That is out of touch with the vast majority of people I
:39:07. > :39:10.represent. The Tories are cheering because we have a small bit of
:39:11. > :39:14.growth after the period where the economy did not grow because of
:39:15. > :39:20.their policies. For most people, times are tough and people are worse
:39:21. > :39:25.off than they were. The great danger as this will be a recovery that
:39:26. > :39:31.benefits the really well off, the people that have had the big tax
:39:32. > :39:35.cuts, not for ordinary families because they have not dealt with
:39:36. > :39:39.things like energy companies. There has been some recovery and that is
:39:40. > :39:47.good and for all Ed Balls has said... We said at the beginning, if
:39:48. > :39:53.you cut public spending too far and too fast the economy will flat line.
:39:54. > :39:57.It said that for three years and thank goodness there is growth, but
:39:58. > :40:03.we were told to tighten our belts and we would deal with the deficit.
:40:04. > :40:14.Now, another five years and then we will have dealt with it. It is not a
:40:15. > :40:20.success. It will take us long now to deal with the deficit as we were
:40:21. > :40:26.told in 2010. All that pain and the deficit is no better today. The
:40:27. > :40:34.reality is when we came into office there was a UK economic crisis going
:40:35. > :40:47.on. It is about external prices like oil going up. The eurozone crisis,
:40:48. > :40:50.big export problems. The reality is that plans we put into place to
:40:51. > :40:57.tackle the deficit are being to work. Labour said you are never
:40:58. > :41:03.going to see the increase in employment or CD private sector
:41:04. > :41:11.creating jobs. Ed Miliband has lost the arguments. You said he would
:41:12. > :41:16.have four times as much growth as we have now learned everything you said
:41:17. > :41:21.has failed completely. ?54 million is how much carers UK reckons is
:41:22. > :41:28.going unclaimed by carers in our region. They were recently had just
:41:29. > :41:34.`` produced a breakdown of people eligible but who are not claiming.
:41:35. > :41:45.In Southampton there are 1276 missing out on funding and 345
:41:46. > :41:56.people in your constituency. Joining me now as a representative of Carers
:41:57. > :42:00.UK. Why are people not claiming? The fundamental reason is that people do
:42:01. > :42:04.not consider themselves to be carers, they are just doing what
:42:05. > :42:11.families do. If a family member needs help, you help that person, or
:42:12. > :42:17.if your parents are starting to get frail and needing help, again,
:42:18. > :42:20.people do that and what they do not think of is how will I manage
:42:21. > :42:29.financially? Quite often they miss out. You are saying they ought to be
:42:30. > :42:34.encouraged in some way? We need everyone to do their sons friends
:42:35. > :42:40.and family recognise this but public services have a critical role to
:42:41. > :42:43.play. Your GP does not have to be benefits experts but if they are
:42:44. > :42:49.worried, they should be able to say, are you considering benefits? People
:42:50. > :42:53.can end up in often extreme poverty if they have missed out for a couple
:42:54. > :43:00.of years and the benefits also protect the pension. We have some
:43:01. > :43:05.real hardship out there. We have about one in ten people using credit
:43:06. > :43:10.cards just to make ends meet. We know that is storing up a lot of
:43:11. > :43:13.problems for the future, and a lot of the debates and the Autumn
:43:14. > :43:21.Statement are about the choice between heating and eating. What
:43:22. > :43:27.about the benefits changes? Are things going to get better or
:43:28. > :43:30.worse? It is a really complicated system and there are some changes
:43:31. > :43:38.which have happened already that are quite difficult. The changes that
:43:39. > :43:41.housing benefit and bedroom tax are heading carers particularly hard
:43:42. > :43:47.because of the way the rules are drawn. They do not really understand
:43:48. > :43:53.that people can need two bedrooms because if they have a hospital bed
:43:54. > :44:06.they cannot share the bed. Let's put these points. We are going through a
:44:07. > :44:15.whole process of benefit reform of one of the challenges is that if you
:44:16. > :44:18.claim for carers allowance, people are eligible for personal living
:44:19. > :44:24.allowance and independence payments and it is about joining up the dots
:44:25. > :44:28.for some people. If you have jobseeker's allowance you can get a
:44:29. > :44:31.carers premium but you have to know what is there, and we are trying to
:44:32. > :44:43.make sure people can get better information. It is trying to make it
:44:44. > :44:50.much more automatic. It is estimated that 10,000 people will lose these
:44:51. > :44:54.payments in that situation? There are some bad changes coming in the
:44:55. > :45:01.bedroom tax should be just scrapped because it is a badly designed to
:45:02. > :45:06.change, but the issue we should pick on, and when I led the Carers UK
:45:07. > :45:10.press release, most weeks and my advice surgery I will probably see
:45:11. > :45:17.somebody who is a carer. If they come to speak to me about financial
:45:18. > :45:23.circumstances, fact they are carer comes up by the by, do I always ask
:45:24. > :45:26.if they have the carers allowance? All of us who may come into contact
:45:27. > :45:32.with carers need to know enough to say, you should ask about this. Is
:45:33. > :45:39.it just the transition early change or a cultural thing, or what should
:45:40. > :45:44.we do differently? All those things. People on the whole do not want to
:45:45. > :45:46.claim benefits but it is a really important system that helps to
:45:47. > :45:54.support people who cannot work full`time. The government website is
:45:55. > :45:56.actually very good on benefit entitlement so I would just
:45:57. > :46:05.encourage people to think about it and spread the word and get advice.
:46:06. > :46:10.Only 27% of water bodies in the UK meet the beefed up EU water quality
:46:11. > :46:17.standards, and we have just 15 Stan `` 15 years to get BS to Mark. With
:46:18. > :46:30.the Environment Agency losing funding and staffing, that could be
:46:31. > :46:34.a problem. We are people that care about issues
:46:35. > :46:42.like Habitat and water quality and a lot of my is really about supporting
:46:43. > :46:46.Habitat enhancement schemes. Clean and clear water and make this
:46:47. > :46:56.stretch of the river a nirvana for anglers. This former MP, used to
:46:57. > :47:03.stalking the corridors of Westminster, he still wield some
:47:04. > :47:08.power in the world of fishing as the head of the angling trust. A river
:47:09. > :47:13.that supports a healthy fish population is likely to support a
:47:14. > :47:23.healthy water vole population and kingfishers and heavens. It is in
:47:24. > :47:28.everybody's interests. `` herons. The revellers getting cleaner by the
:47:29. > :47:34.year. It has two, tough targets have been set by the EU meaning our
:47:35. > :47:40.rivers have to be much less polluted and home to a greater variety of
:47:41. > :47:44.wildlife. We have until 2027 to meet the targets but there is an awfully
:47:45. > :47:49.long way to go as at the moment only 10% of this river and the
:47:50. > :47:54.contributing streams are meeting the targets.
:47:55. > :47:59.The buck stops with the Environment Agency but government cuts means has
:48:00. > :48:11.two shared 1500 jobs by next October, one in six of the
:48:12. > :48:16.workforce. `` to cut 1500 jobs. This is a real conservation species, a
:48:17. > :48:21.beautiful small fish. How clean does the lover have to be for them? It
:48:22. > :48:27.has to be very clean for them to thrive in the way they are clearly
:48:28. > :48:36.doing here. They are rarer sight in other parts of the lover. 90% is not
:48:37. > :48:45.up to scratch. Pinning the blame is not easy. It is down to different
:48:46. > :48:52.sorts of pressures. Pressure from development and agriculture and
:48:53. > :48:56.factory discharges, and also destruction in some places of
:48:57. > :49:04.habitats. Generally, the water is improving. Reducing pollution from
:49:05. > :49:09.farmers fields, industry and new housing development is essential.
:49:10. > :49:16.Some say it will all mean nothing unless we change our behaviour. We
:49:17. > :49:21.are producing a lot of the waste that ends up in the reverence,
:49:22. > :49:28.either through products that are farmed intensively, and also using
:49:29. > :49:33.products only domestic bases. As it as simple as not using as much or
:49:34. > :49:40.different types? Products that are much kinder for the environment,
:49:41. > :49:51.things that once they go through the system, the river levels can cope
:49:52. > :49:54.with the level of effluence. Losing 15% of the staff means the
:49:55. > :50:02.Environment Agency has to rely on an ever`growing army of volunteers.
:50:03. > :50:08.Local people want to take ownership of these issues and get stuck in. I
:50:09. > :50:16.am confident we can do what is required. They can be crucial in
:50:17. > :50:21.driving these changes in partnership with angling clubs and the Rivers
:50:22. > :50:26.trust and community groups and environmental organisations. It will
:50:27. > :50:34.be a challenge to get it anything near the level has to be by 2027.
:50:35. > :50:42.To make that water quality directive, one in six of the staff
:50:43. > :50:48.are getting rid of. It is a huge challenge and there is not a huge
:50:49. > :50:54.amount of public money. They are a great public organisations who have
:50:55. > :51:01.done fantastic things. The big question is, can you fill such a big
:51:02. > :51:04.gap with enough volunteers in all the right places, and it will be a
:51:05. > :51:11.huge challenge for the Environment Agency. People seem quite positive
:51:12. > :51:17.about it, people who really care about this. They have taken over the
:51:18. > :51:21.Titchfield canal from the Environment Agency who did not spend
:51:22. > :51:27.much time on it. They thought they would be much better looking after
:51:28. > :51:31.it and cleaning it out and preserving it than the Environment
:51:32. > :51:34.Agency. There's a huge interest they ran the a lot of people are out
:51:35. > :51:43.there who are keen to protect the environment. They wanted to do
:51:44. > :51:48.something about the environment to help them and help the community and
:51:49. > :51:54.the future. A lot more houses coming, haven't we? We can design
:51:55. > :51:59.these to be more environmentally friendly than they weren't the
:52:00. > :52:08.past. In Israel, 90% of the water is reuse, and that is something we can
:52:09. > :52:12.do. It is about technology and commitment and we cannot rely on the
:52:13. > :52:16.Environment Agency to do everything. It was billed as the biggest ever
:52:17. > :52:20.trade delegation we have sent overseas and joining the Prime
:52:21. > :52:32.Minister and his trip to China were a good number from our region. One
:52:33. > :52:40.of the 150 was Hugh Wales. `` Wells/ There he is in the picture of them
:52:41. > :52:47.leaving. Hopefully over the jet lag, did you have a good trip? What have
:52:48. > :52:50.you brought back? We do not do any business in China at the moment so
:52:51. > :52:55.what we have brought back is good knowledge of what China is about. We
:52:56. > :53:01.sell to Japan which is close but very different. We have come back
:53:02. > :53:05.with a much wider knowledge of what the market is like. What do you
:53:06. > :53:15.think it could be in the years ahead? In China at the moment, there
:53:16. > :53:22.are 600 million middle`class consumers coming up. At the moment,
:53:23. > :53:27.1% of imports into China are British. If that became 2% it would
:53:28. > :53:37.have the national deficit. That is why China is so important. `` half
:53:38. > :53:45.the national deficit. Are they taking us seriously? I think they
:53:46. > :53:50.are. The political climate has been a bit frosty but going in the with
:53:51. > :53:58.such a big delegation, it showed that in Britain we are open for
:53:59. > :54:03.business. We need to get some of that and make China work for us.
:54:04. > :54:09.There is a rebalancing between China being a producer and the consumer.
:54:10. > :54:13.As it becomes a consumer, we can try to get some of our high`quality
:54:14. > :54:23.British design goods in there. They are called luxury lines, that is the
:54:24. > :54:29.market you are aiming at? The rich Chinese are interested in some very
:54:30. > :54:36.expensive products but with this 600 million consumer base it is luxury
:54:37. > :54:47.like they are looking at. `` luxury light. We do signage and cladding
:54:48. > :54:51.for underground systems, and the building going on in China requires
:54:52. > :54:58.new and innovative building materials. As part of that, I spoke
:54:59. > :55:04.to numerous architects and said, how about looking at some of our stuff
:55:05. > :55:08.made on the Isle of Wight? It is a bit of a drop in the ocean taking
:55:09. > :55:10.150 people out but there's a drop in the ocean taking 150 people like but
:55:11. > :55:13.is changing the culture of companies? I think it is and it is
:55:14. > :55:17.making people think about the opportunities that are out there.
:55:18. > :55:29.Understanding more about the market and what it could mean. Huge support
:55:30. > :55:35.from the UK trade industry with businesses small and large looking
:55:36. > :55:42.to do business out there. It is a fantastic opportunity. In some of
:55:43. > :55:48.this window dressing? It is important to do it and do it well.
:55:49. > :55:56.The challenge is to say Britain is all very well but it is an old
:55:57. > :56:00.country. We do have to understand that we are also in a position where
:56:01. > :56:04.we want a nuclear power station and it has to be built by a French and
:56:05. > :56:08.Chinese company, sorry lot has to be done here to increase the number of
:56:09. > :56:16.companies that have the capacity to export. Much as much as possible we
:56:17. > :56:23.have to build up our core economic strength much better than it is at
:56:24. > :56:28.the moment. London taxis, why do they have to be moved to China? Why
:56:29. > :56:31.could we not have the investment to export them here?
:56:32. > :56:37.We must not miss opportunities. Thank you for coming in. Our regular
:56:38. > :56:47.round`up of the political week in the south.
:56:48. > :56:54.Hydroelectric power has come to the River Thames. The community or in
:56:55. > :57:00.scheme replaces a weir and low`power 60 homes.
:57:01. > :57:03.Sussex pesticides campaigner has claimed victory in her 12 year
:57:04. > :57:09.battle to get the government to tighten up on chemicals used in crop
:57:10. > :57:13.spraying. Hampshire police have been visiting scrap dealers enforce new
:57:14. > :57:17.regulations and buying and selling for cash is illegal.
:57:18. > :57:21.The Civil rights activist Jesse Jackson told the Oxford union
:57:22. > :57:34.University does not do enough to encourage ethnic minorities. They
:57:35. > :57:38.must be equipped to deal with multiracial multicultural world.
:57:39. > :57:43.The Christmas lights are up in Newbury but a plan to guarantee the
:57:44. > :57:47.homeless a hospital place was abandoned when people turned up from
:57:48. > :57:53.as far away as Birmingham. `` hostel place.
:57:54. > :57:59.It says something it was quite so popular. Jesse Jackson criticising a
:58:00. > :58:05.lack of diversity at Oxford University. In the week of Nelson
:58:06. > :58:10.Mandela's death, should we learn from his example? There are many
:58:11. > :58:14.extraordinary things about him but one of the most was when he became
:58:15. > :58:19.president, he could have easily said, we have been badly treated and
:58:20. > :58:25.now the majority will take everything. It was the magnanimity
:58:26. > :58:30.to say I want a country that is equal for everybody. When we look at
:58:31. > :58:35.our own country, the lesson should be to keep on working until we have
:58:36. > :58:42.true equality of opportunity. Do you take that lesson? I think it is a
:58:43. > :58:46.really good lesson. It would be very easy to come from Robben Island and
:58:47. > :58:51.be very better but he showed great humanity and was magnanimous. He
:58:52. > :58:54.reached out to people who disagreed with him and there is a lesson about
:58:55. > :59:01.how you deal with conflict and its resolution. A lesson for politicians
:59:02. > :59:06.everywhere, working on coalitions rather than opposition? The way he
:59:07. > :59:12.reached out to people demonstrates you can work together on these
:59:13. > :59:19.issues, it is important to agree and cooperate. We can be too much
:59:20. > :59:24.focused on division. That is, rather than where we can work together. It
:59:25. > :59:29.will be a huge memory for so many people? For somebody of my
:59:30. > :59:36.generation, apartheid was one of the first issues that made me think,
:59:37. > :59:40.what are my values? Do I take the world the way as it has or play a
:59:41. > :59:46.little part if I can in changing it? A huge number of people had that
:59:47. > :59:53.response to the issue and to heaven. Thank you both for being on the
:59:54. > :59:57.programme. That is all from us. `` and to him.
:59:58. > :00:22.Tomorrow, the House of Commons will pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela.
:00:23. > :00:42.Our nation has lost its greatest son. Our people have lost a father.
:00:43. > :00:49.The first thing I ever did that involved an issue or policy, or
:00:50. > :00:56.politics, was protest against apartheid.
:00:57. > :01:06.I think his greatest legacy, to South Africa and to the world, is
:01:07. > :01:16.the emphasis which he has always put on the need for a conciliation, on
:01:17. > :01:22.the importance of human rights. He also made us understand that we can
:01:23. > :01:25.change the world. We can change the world by changing attitudes, by
:01:26. > :01:31.changing perceptions. For this reason, I would like to pay him
:01:32. > :01:43.tribute as a great human being, who raised the standard of humanity.
:01:44. > :01:47.Thank you for the gift of Madiba. Thank you for what he has enabled us
:01:48. > :02:05.to know we can become. We are joined now by the Labour MP
:02:06. > :02:09.Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not one after he was released from
:02:10. > :02:14.prison in 1990. He went as an election observer for the first one
:02:15. > :02:19.person, one-vote in South Africa. I would guess, of all the people you
:02:20. > :02:20.met in your life, you must have been the most impressive and biggest
:02:21. > :02:26.influence? He was extraordinary He influence? He was extraordinary. He
:02:27. > :02:29.had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot
:02:30. > :02:35.of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without
:02:36. > :02:41.bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his
:02:42. > :02:42.achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that
:02:43. > :02:47.if you have black majority rule, you if you have black majority rule you
:02:48. > :02:52.might have a bloodbath. It's down to Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I
:02:53. > :02:58.remember FW de Klerk saying that Mandela was the key to getting a
:02:59. > :03:05.peaceful transition. Absolutely the key, an amazing man. London was one
:03:06. > :03:09.of the centres, people talked about it as being the other centre of the
:03:10. > :03:13.anti-apartheid struggle. That anti-apartheid struggle in London,
:03:14. > :03:18.it had an effect on black politics in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were
:03:19. > :03:24.black and politically active at the time, the apartheid struggle, the
:03:25. > :03:27.struggle against white supremacy in South Africa, was very important.
:03:28. > :03:30.Whatever your colour, the anti-apartheid struggle, for our
:03:31. > :03:37.generation, was the political campaign. We have the 50th
:03:38. > :03:40.anniversary of Kennedy's assassination. Mr Mandela's death.
:03:41. > :03:45.We are kind of running out of people that inspired us? I will never
:03:46. > :03:50.forget where I was when I saw him come out of prison, hand-in-hand
:03:51. > :03:53.with the women, I might add. If you have spent your whole teenage years
:03:54. > :03:58.and 20 is boycotting, marching, picketing, to see him actually come
:03:59. > :04:06.out was amazing. Do you think it was more exciting to meet you or the
:04:07. > :04:13.Spice Girls? I think the Spice Girls. What did the Labour
:04:14. > :04:17.backbenchers think about Ed Balls's performance after the Autumn
:04:18. > :04:21.Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a brilliant man, but I think even he
:04:22. > :04:25.would say that it was not his best performance. But if you look at the
:04:26. > :04:30.polls, the public liked the points he made. The backbenchers were
:04:31. > :04:37.quiet, there was something wrong? I noticed that. It was like a wall of
:04:38. > :04:39.sound, deliberately. They know that under pressure his stamina might
:04:40. > :04:44.come back and it is difficult for him. That is what they were trying
:04:45. > :04:48.to incite. I have had experience first hand, a look at all of these
:04:49. > :04:54.anonymous and sometimes not anonymous quotes in the media. The
:04:55. > :05:04.spinning has begun against him? This is the party of brotherly love, no
:05:05. > :05:09.matter what the Tories say, we can say worse about each other. How
:05:10. > :05:15.could it be that two former aides to Gordon Brown do not like each other?
:05:16. > :05:20.Far be it from me to say. If he wanted to do it, and I'm not saying
:05:21. > :05:25.he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I
:05:26. > :05:30.mean, he got rid of you, he got rid of his brother? One thing you should
:05:31. > :05:33.not do is under estimate Ed Miliband's capacity for
:05:34. > :05:39.ruthlessness. If he feels it is the right thing to do, he will do it.
:05:40. > :05:42.It's not just a matter of... Ed Balls is a big, powerful
:05:43. > :05:46.personality. He's great to interview because he is across his subject,
:05:47. > :05:50.you can have a really good argument with him, a man that knows his
:05:51. > :05:57.brief, his facts. But it's not just about the personality. There is a
:05:58. > :06:02.kind of sense that Labour needs to look forwards more on economic
:06:03. > :06:05.policy. Of course, the standard of living has been hugely successful
:06:06. > :06:10.for Labour. But it needs more than that on economic policy? I think he
:06:11. > :06:15.has been one of the most effective member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's
:06:16. > :06:19.always associated with the Brown years, where there is always an
:06:20. > :06:23.element about, you were the guys that got it wrong. I think Ed
:06:24. > :06:27.Miliband will be very tempted to replace him with Alistair Darling.
:06:28. > :06:30.The scenario goes like this, Alistair Darling saves the union and
:06:31. > :06:34.then in September he saves the Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't
:06:35. > :06:38.think he would do it. Talk about shifting tectonic plates, it would,
:06:39. > :06:45.wouldn't it? But it is a step too far. Ed Balls would not be too
:06:46. > :06:55.happy. It is not something you would want to do lightly. That sounds a
:06:56. > :07:00.bit of a threat. Not from you. I can't see Ed Balls magnanimously
:07:01. > :07:04.retreating and say, go on, Alistair Darling, take the job I have been
:07:05. > :07:07.after all career. Where do you put him? Do you make him a middle
:07:08. > :07:13.ranking business or welfare secretary? He wouldn't do that. If
:07:14. > :07:18.you sack him, he would retreat to the backbenchers. He might take up
:07:19. > :07:22.knitting and practices piano scales, or he might have a blood feud with
:07:23. > :07:28.Ed Miliband. I don't know which could be. You look back to when he
:07:29. > :07:31.was schools Secretary, you could feel he was constantly fuming. I
:07:32. > :07:35.think he is better inside the tent, looking out, than the other way
:07:36. > :07:39.around. The thing one Labour strategist said to me was that he is
:07:40. > :07:43.too much looking into the rear-view mirror, when it comes to economic
:07:44. > :07:49.policy. He needs to look ahead through the windscreen. That had
:07:50. > :07:53.some resonance? He was at the centre of Labour's economic policy-making
:07:54. > :07:58.from the mid-90s. So it's hard for him but he has to look forward.
:07:59. > :08:02.There is an interesting comparison with 2009. Gordon Brown got in
:08:03. > :08:05.trouble when he said the choice is between Labour investment and Tory
:08:06. > :08:09.cuts. Everybody knew it was between Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other
:08:10. > :08:13.words, he was not acknowledging reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can
:08:14. > :08:17.say it is the wrong sort of recovery, but there is a recovery.
:08:18. > :08:20.Does he not need to absorb that punch and say there is a recovery,
:08:21. > :08:27.then people will listen to him? Possibly. We know that the
:08:28. > :08:31.macroeconomics are looking better. We also know people are not
:08:32. > :08:36.experiencing it as a recovery in living standards. No one, not even
:08:37. > :08:40.Tories, really believe that David Cameron knows what it is like for
:08:41. > :08:44.middle-income people to live normal lives. Living standards is
:08:45. > :08:47.particularly powerful because of the composition of the government? Don't
:08:48. > :08:52.go away. This time last year we ambushed our political panel with a
:08:53. > :08:56.quiz. They didn't come out of it smelling of roses, but they did come
:08:57. > :09:02.out rather smelly. Will the coalition still be in place
:09:03. > :09:10.a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I say definitely as well. From now,
:09:11. > :09:17.one year, will we know the date of the European referendum? Yes. No. I
:09:18. > :09:23.say no as well. How much growth will there be? Less than 1%. Father
:09:24. > :09:30.Christmas is less qualified than me, but I will go for one. I will go for
:09:31. > :09:37.a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a third of that. I am with you, and
:09:38. > :09:42.1%. We didn't do too badly. What will growth be next year? I will
:09:43. > :09:46.remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR,
:09:47. > :09:46.remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR got
:09:47. > :09:52.2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got it wrong last year. Well, they went
:09:53. > :09:56.down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and
:09:57. > :10:03.claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it
:10:04. > :10:06.wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular
:10:07. > :10:09.growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is
:10:10. > :10:15.incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%, incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2 4%,
:10:16. > :10:22.because the housing market in London is rocketing. It would be closer to
:10:23. > :10:30.3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this
:10:31. > :10:37.time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes, I value my life. Will UKIP mean the
:10:38. > :10:45.European elections, by which I mean have the highest percentage of the
:10:46. > :10:51.vote? Yes. Second behind Labour Second behind Labour. Will Alex
:10:52. > :10:57.Salmond win the independence referendum? No, but it will be
:10:58. > :11:00.closer than we think. No, unless they do something catastrophic like
:11:01. > :11:08.let Cameron debate him. Too close to call. Controversial. How many
:11:09. > :11:18.Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than
:11:19. > :11:21.anyone thinks. The entire population of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel
:11:22. > :11:27.Farage thanks. I'll go with that, I'm confident. A change of tone for
:11:28. > :11:31.your magazine. Not many will come, but a lot here already will
:11:32. > :11:37.normalise and be counted into figures. Too many for most
:11:38. > :11:41.right-wing commentators. I think quite a few will come, but not the
:11:42. > :11:51.kind of numbers that made such a huge difference. This time,
:11:52. > :11:55.everybody is open. They do like to speak English, that is the reason
:11:56. > :12:01.they want to come. We'll all three of you still be here by this time
:12:02. > :12:08.next year? Yes. Would you recommend that? Yes, keep them. And he has
:12:09. > :12:15.lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If you can keep affording me, I will be
:12:16. > :12:21.here. I hope so, it sounds like you have a firing squad outside. I hope
:12:22. > :12:29.so, maybe you will find some true talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they?
:12:30. > :12:33.Let me put this to you, I think you will agree. The coalition will not
:12:34. > :12:39.break now, this side of the election next year? There will not be... They
:12:40. > :12:46.will not go their own ways by this time next year? Of next year, maybe
:12:47. > :12:53.just after. Early 2015. This side of the election? What is the UKIP view?
:12:54. > :12:58.I don't think there is an advantage to either of them. If the Lib Dems
:12:59. > :13:01.pulled out, they would look like there were a lodger in the Tory
:13:02. > :13:05.house of government. I think it would suit the Lib Dems to break
:13:06. > :13:09.just before the election. I think that is what Vince Cable wants to
:13:10. > :13:16.do. I don't think it is what Nick Clegg would like to do. The Tories
:13:17. > :13:19.would love it. They would have all of the toys to themselves. Yellow
:13:20. > :13:22.marker they would look like the grown-ups. The problem for Vince
:13:23. > :13:25.Cable is that he's not the force that used to be after his temper
:13:26. > :13:34.tantrum at the Conference. I will be back with the Daily
:13:35. > :13:39.Politics next week. If Santer gives you a diary in your stocking, pencil
:13:40. > :13:47.in Sunday the 20th of January, the first Sunday Politics of 2014.
:13:48. > :13:48.Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is
:13:49. > :13:51.Christmas. And New Year.