:00:36. > :00:43.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely
:00:44. > :00:46.settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't
:00:47. > :00:48.all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election
:00:49. > :00:53.springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns
:00:54. > :00:57.out the big Budget surprise was a revolution in how we pay for old
:00:58. > :01:01.age. The Pensions Minister says he's relaxed if you want to spend it all
:01:02. > :01:07.on a Lamborghini. He'll join us later. And could the man with the
:01:08. > :01:10.maracas be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy
:01:11. > :01:13.In the South... plan
:01:14. > :01:16.In the South... Are we worrying too much about the
:01:17. > :01:19.human rights of prisoners and not enough about their victims? The
:01:20. > :01:22.sister of a murdered Hampshire woman says we are.
:01:23. > :01:25.In London, the Mafia man gets to stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of
:01:26. > :01:38.making the European arrest warrant work better? -- Uxbridge. And who
:01:39. > :01:40.better to help guide you through all of that than three journalists, who
:01:41. > :01:44.dispense wisdom faster than Grant Shapps calls out the numbers in his
:01:45. > :01:47.local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and
:01:48. > :01:53.they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick
:01:54. > :01:59.Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:02:00. > :02:04.So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so
:02:05. > :02:07.many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of
:02:08. > :02:11.room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably
:02:12. > :02:14.a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3.5
:02:15. > :02:16.hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in
:02:17. > :02:47.three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their
:02:48. > :02:50.own, driven partly by tradition, like that photocall at 11 Downing
:02:51. > :02:53.Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and
:02:54. > :03:06.explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget
:03:07. > :03:09.Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of
:03:10. > :03:13.the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the
:03:14. > :03:16.clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one
:03:17. > :03:19.question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be
:03:20. > :03:21.something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily
:03:22. > :03:28.towards the statement and already commentators are hovering over what
:03:29. > :03:31.those potential surprises are. As Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to
:03:32. > :03:33.the Commons, where there is Prime Minister's questions and the
:03:34. > :03:40.Chancellor gets up and does his thing. Once he's on his feet and
:03:41. > :03:43.remembering there is still no copy of the details, the major measures
:03:44. > :03:47.are rapidly highlighted as they come and then put up on screen. A cap on
:03:48. > :03:54.Government welfare spending set for 2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax
:03:55. > :03:59.personal allowance raised to ?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which
:04:00. > :04:04.ticked boxes for some but was unlikely to make anyone a poster
:04:05. > :04:08.boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p, or the froth on the top. And changes to
:04:09. > :04:12.pensions allowing people to take their money out in one lump sum,
:04:13. > :04:21.rather than being forced to accept a fixed annual pay-out, or annuity.
:04:22. > :04:24.This is a Budget for the makers, the doers and the savers and I commend
:04:25. > :04:28.it to the House. Not everyone can focus on the Budget by listening to
:04:29. > :04:32.what the Chancellor says. We need to get a copy of the script. We do not
:04:33. > :04:39.get that till he sits down. I'm going to go into the House of
:04:40. > :04:43.Commons to get that right now. There will be a response on that and all
:04:44. > :04:46.the other things from Mr Miliband. The Chancellor spoke for nearly an
:04:47. > :04:49.hour but he did not mention one essential fact, the working people
:04:50. > :04:54.of Britain are worse off under the Tories. It is a tricky job answering
:04:55. > :04:57.the Budget at the best of times, though some, including Labour MPs,
:04:58. > :05:00.think it is better to mention the Budget when you do.
:05:01. > :05:07.Here we are. I am going to go. I am not the only journalist missing Ed
:05:08. > :05:10.Miliband's speech. Many others leave the Chamber as the Chancellor sits
:05:11. > :05:18.down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team.
:05:19. > :05:21.I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget
:05:22. > :05:24.than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and
:05:25. > :05:27.other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and
:05:28. > :05:36.detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC?
:05:37. > :05:39.Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days
:05:40. > :05:42.later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still
:05:43. > :05:44.seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of
:05:45. > :05:59.voters? How significant are these two poles
:06:00. > :06:09.this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party
:06:10. > :06:14.a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At
:06:15. > :06:17.first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where
:06:18. > :06:22.all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been
:06:23. > :06:27.ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and
:06:28. > :06:32.others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which
:06:33. > :06:38.is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the
:06:39. > :06:43.weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the
:06:44. > :06:47.Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the
:06:48. > :06:52.baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The
:06:53. > :06:56.Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next
:06:57. > :07:01.time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching
:07:02. > :07:06.them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing
:07:07. > :07:10.issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again
:07:11. > :07:14.Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were
:07:15. > :07:19.saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy
:07:20. > :07:24.issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is
:07:25. > :07:33.controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much
:07:34. > :07:37.into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the
:07:38. > :07:42.pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten
:07:43. > :07:46.years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office.
:07:47. > :07:51.Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There
:07:52. > :07:56.is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year
:07:57. > :07:59.before an election. What I underestimated was, how many
:08:00. > :08:05.frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people
:08:06. > :08:10.who are frustrated by low interest rates and tax rates on pension pots.
:08:11. > :08:16.This was an explicit gesture for them. That is what has paid off in
:08:17. > :08:21.the polls in the past few days. You spend all of your money on your
:08:22. > :08:26.wardrobe, is that right? The bingo poster was a kind of get out of jail
:08:27. > :08:30.card for Labour. It gave them something to zoom in on. Everyone
:08:31. > :08:36.beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman. We read in the daily
:08:37. > :08:42.Telegraph that the fingerprints of the Chancellor were all over this
:08:43. > :08:50.poster. The Chancellor signed off it -- off on it and so did Lynton
:08:51. > :08:57.Crosby. They referred to working class people as, they are. How did
:08:58. > :09:02.it get into the Telegraph? We can only presume but grant Shapps made
:09:03. > :09:06.it clear that it was not him. We had a time when Labour politicians, we
:09:07. > :09:10.saw from the response of Ed Miliband onwards, they were not quite sure
:09:11. > :09:15.how to react to this budget. A lot of detail had to be absorbed.
:09:16. > :09:26.Suddenly, here is something we can talk about. You can see the thinking
:09:27. > :09:29.behind the poster was very sensible. We are not Tory toffs, we are
:09:30. > :09:31.interested in helping people who do not come from our backgrounds. The
:09:32. > :09:38.wording was awful and played into every cliche. It was all his fault.
:09:39. > :09:47.It shows how unsophisticated he was. There were people from Tory HQ
:09:48. > :09:58.who agreed the budget. A month down the line will the budget look as
:09:59. > :10:01.good? Probably. Once people look at it, pensions are fiendishly
:10:02. > :10:05.conjugated. Once they look and see what it will do with people having
:10:06. > :10:09.to pay for their own care because they can now take capital at their
:10:10. > :10:14.pension, that will come as a shock to a lot of people with small
:10:15. > :10:22.savings. It all be gone on their care. The polling will be neck and
:10:23. > :10:25.neck all the way. In the past, George Osborne has been accused of
:10:26. > :10:28.using his Budgets to tinker at the margins or pull cheap tricks on his
:10:29. > :10:31.political opponents. Perish the thought. But the big surprise in
:10:32. > :10:33.this year's statement was a genuinely radical shake-up of the
:10:34. > :10:44.pensions system that will affect most people who've yet to retire. At
:10:45. > :10:48.the moment, everyone is saving money into a defined contribution pension,
:10:49. > :10:54.that is the type most common in the private sector. They can take 25% of
:10:55. > :10:59.the pot is a tax-free lump sum when they retire. The rest of the money,
:11:00. > :11:02.for most people, they are forced to buy an annuity, a form of insurance
:11:03. > :11:06.which provide a guaranteed monthly income until they die. Annuities
:11:07. > :11:15.have hardly been a bargain since interest rates were flat slashed
:11:16. > :11:20.following the financial crash. Even with a ?100,000 pension pot would
:11:21. > :11:24.only get an income of ?5,800 a year at current rates. From 2018,
:11:25. > :11:28.pensioners will not be forced to buy an annuity. They can do what they
:11:29. > :11:33.like with their money, even taking the entire pot as a lump some but
:11:34. > :11:45.paying tax on 75% of it. With an average pension pot closer
:11:46. > :11:53.to around ?30,000, pensioners would be more likely to buy a Skoda
:11:54. > :11:58.instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly retired people who take the cash are
:11:59. > :12:01.more likely to spend the money paying off their mortgage, helping a
:12:02. > :12:04.family member to buy a property or investing the money elsewhere. Well,
:12:05. > :12:08.earlier I spoke to the Pensions Minister. He's a Lib Dem called
:12:09. > :12:10.Steve Webb. I began by asking him if he still thought the reforms might
:12:11. > :12:18.lead to pensioners splurging all their savings on supercars. What
:12:19. > :12:23.this reform is about is treating people as adults. For far too long,
:12:24. > :12:26.we have said, we will make sure you save for your old age and then we
:12:27. > :12:32.will control each year how much is spent on what you spend it on. What
:12:33. > :12:35.we are saying is because we have formed -- reformed the state
:12:36. > :12:38.pension, we will be much more relaxed about what people do with
:12:39. > :12:42.their own money. The evidence is that people who have been frugal and
:12:43. > :12:47.saved hard for retirement do not generally blows a lot. They will
:12:48. > :12:52.spin it out. It is treating people as adults and giving them choices
:12:53. > :13:00.they should have had all along. It is a red herring, isn't it? The
:13:01. > :13:06.average pension pot is between 25000 and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an
:13:07. > :13:11.option, correct? I gather only about 5000 people a year retiring can buy
:13:12. > :13:14.a flashy Italian sports car. It might be about paying off a
:13:15. > :13:18.mortgage, paying off outstanding debts. Maybe spending more money
:13:19. > :13:22.earlier in retirement when they are fit and able and can enjoy it more.
:13:23. > :13:27.We will give people guidance. We will make sure when they retire,
:13:28. > :13:30.there is someone to have a conversation with talking through
:13:31. > :13:34.the implications of spending the money early and options of investing
:13:35. > :13:41.it. This will be a real step forward. Even if you have a much
:13:42. > :13:45.bigger pension pot, say half ?1 million, which is way bigger than
:13:46. > :13:50.the average, even then the marginal rates of tax will be a disincentive
:13:51. > :13:58.to take it all out at once. You will lose huge chunks of it at the 40%
:13:59. > :14:02.band and then the 45% band. The tax system gives you the incentive to
:14:03. > :14:06.spread it out if the tax threshold is a bit over 10000 and the state
:14:07. > :14:12.pension is a bit over 7000, the first 3000 you draw out in a given
:14:13. > :14:20.year is tax-free. The next band is at 20%. Spreading your money will
:14:21. > :14:23.mean you pay less tax. That is why, in general, people will not blow the
:14:24. > :14:28.lot up front. They will spread it out over their retirement. You have
:14:29. > :14:34.kept this policy quiet. Not even a hint. How did you test it? How did
:14:35. > :14:40.you make sure it would be robust? You did not do a consultation. I
:14:41. > :14:44.have been talking about freeing up the annuity market for a decade. The
:14:45. > :14:48.idea of giving people more choice. The government has relaxed rules
:14:49. > :14:52.over this Parliament. It was not a completely new idea. We know in
:14:53. > :15:01.places like Australia and America, people have these freedoms. We
:15:02. > :15:03.already have something to judge it by. We will spend the next year
:15:04. > :15:05.talking to people, working it through. There will be a three-month
:15:06. > :15:09.consultation. I want people to have choices about their own money. There
:15:10. > :15:15.is detail still to be worked out and we are in listening mode about how
:15:16. > :15:17.we implement it. When you announce something you cannot do widespread
:15:18. > :15:22.consultation, for the reasons I have given, you do run the risk of
:15:23. > :15:25.unforeseen consequences? Pension companies this morning are
:15:26. > :15:29.indicating, you, the government can write you are looking for ?25
:15:30. > :15:34.billion of infrastructure investment from us. You hold our shell below
:15:35. > :15:52.the water line. That may not happen. We spoke internally about the
:15:53. > :16:02.implications for instruction -- infrastructure. It seems to me there
:16:03. > :16:09.will still be long-term investments. Many people want to turn their whole
:16:10. > :16:12.pot into an income. I understand the insurance companies are lobbying,
:16:13. > :16:18.but I'm convinced there will still be plenty of money for investment
:16:19. > :16:23.and infrastructure. If the Chancellor's pro-savings measures
:16:24. > :16:29.work, that will generate more savings. With no requirement now to
:16:30. > :16:35.buy an annuity, surely it is the case that pension pots are another
:16:36. > :16:42.ordinary savings fund, so why should they continue to get favourable tax
:16:43. > :16:47.treatment? Bear in mind that a lot of the tax treatment of pensioners
:16:48. > :16:52.is tax deferred so most people pay tax at the standard rate. If they
:16:53. > :17:00.put money into a pension, they don't pay tax when they earn it, but they
:17:01. > :17:05.do at retirement. We do want, we will still have automatic enrolment
:17:06. > :17:10.into workplace pensions, we do want people to build up, because at age
:17:11. > :17:17.20 and 30 nobody thinks about retirement. It is still vital that
:17:18. > :17:23.people do reach retirement to have these new choices with a decent
:17:24. > :17:28.sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax breaks because they were supposed to
:17:29. > :17:32.provide an income in retirement, that is how it was structured, but
:17:33. > :17:39.that is no longer a requirement, surely that undermines the case that
:17:40. > :17:45.if they get tax breaks, other forms of savings should get tax breaks.
:17:46. > :17:59.Other forms do get tax breaks, of course. The return with ISAs is tax
:18:00. > :18:07.free. The point with pensions is that you are simply deferring your
:18:08. > :18:11.earnings. There is a bit when high tax rate payers get a kick when they
:18:12. > :18:16.are working and then retire on standard rate, so there is the issue
:18:17. > :18:21.of the top getting too many tax breaks, but the basic principle that
:18:22. > :18:28.you pay tax when you get the income seems right to me and isn't affected
:18:29. > :18:32.by these changes. You have announced save friendly measures, are we right
:18:33. > :18:38.to look at them as a consolation prize because savers have suffered
:18:39. > :18:43.from the Government's policy of keeping interest rates abnormally
:18:44. > :18:48.low? It is certainly the case that very low interest rates have been a
:18:49. > :18:52.huge boon to people of working age with mortgages, and people who have
:18:53. > :18:58.retired said they thought they could have got a better deal on their
:18:59. > :19:03.savings. I think there is a recognition that whilst we have done
:19:04. > :19:09.the right thing with pensioners on the state pension, we have brought
:19:10. > :19:19.in the triple lock, and many will bent on -- benefit from these
:19:20. > :19:24.changes. Why don't savers who are not pensioners get the same help?
:19:25. > :19:30.They have been hit by low interest rates as well. Those of working
:19:31. > :19:35.age, many of them say they have benefited from low interest rates
:19:36. > :19:43.was predominantly people in retirement have not had the benefit.
:19:44. > :19:51.Obviously people of working age will have benefited from the tax
:19:52. > :19:57.allowance so it is a myth to say the Budget was all about pensioners. And
:19:58. > :20:00.yet even when the Office for Budget Responsibility takes into account
:20:01. > :20:06.your new measures, it still shows that over the next five years
:20:07. > :20:13.households will save less and less, indeed the savings ratio falls by
:20:14. > :20:17.50%. You haven't done enough. One of the things we know is that the
:20:18. > :20:22.economy is picking up strongly, and as we have more confidence about the
:20:23. > :20:25.future they will be more willing to consume now, so without these
:20:26. > :20:31.measures it may be that the saving rate would have fallen further. We
:20:32. > :20:37.want people to save and spend, it is about getting the right balance. As
:20:38. > :20:42.the economy picks up, people will want to spend more of their money
:20:43. > :20:47.and it is about getting the balance right. You make the point that if
:20:48. > :20:51.people are little profligate with their private pensions, they will
:20:52. > :20:56.have the state pension to fall back on and it will be higher than it has
:20:57. > :21:01.been, but it is also the case that in these circumstances they will
:21:02. > :21:06.still be entitled to housing benefit and even to perhaps some council tax
:21:07. > :21:13.benefit as well. Do you know by how much this could put the welfare bill
:21:14. > :21:18.up? We think the impact will be relatively modest because the sort
:21:19. > :21:22.of people who save for a pension and make sacrifices while they are at
:21:23. > :21:29.work are not the sort of people who get to 65 and decide to blow the lot
:21:30. > :21:32.for the great privilege of receiving council tax benefit or housing
:21:33. > :21:44.benefit. There will be people on the margins and
:21:45. > :21:44.benefit. There will be people on the who retire with some capital want to
:21:45. > :21:51.put some money away for their funeral. People like to save even
:21:52. > :21:57.into retirement so the myth of the spendthrift pensioner I don't
:21:58. > :22:03.believe. I think this has been rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a
:22:04. > :22:18.Lamborghini yourself? If you turned the camera around you would see my
:22:19. > :22:21.2-door Corsa! What's your favourite thing about an
:22:22. > :22:24.election? Could it be the candidates ringing on your door while you're
:22:25. > :22:27.having dinner? The leaflets piling up on your doormat? Or the endless
:22:28. > :22:30.adverts aimed at hardworking families? Well, if you thought that
:22:31. > :22:33.was bad enough, then you might want to consider going overseas for the
:22:34. > :22:36.2015 election because the parties are going to be aiming their message
:22:37. > :22:42.at you like never before. Adam's been to Worcester to find out more.
:22:43. > :22:47.One of the most famous political figures in history lived here, she
:22:48. > :22:52.is called Worcester woman. She was in her 30s, working class with a
:22:53. > :22:56.couple of kids, aspirational yet worried about quality of life. But
:22:57. > :23:00.she wasn't a real person, she was a label for the kind of voter new
:23:01. > :23:08.Labour were trying to reach and she was later joined by Mondeo man and
:23:09. > :23:12.several others. Doesn't that all seem a bit 90s? The technique,
:23:13. > :23:19.called segmentation, was used by George Bush in 2004. Then refined by
:23:20. > :23:25.Barack Obama. Rather than focusing on crude measures like cars and
:23:26. > :23:28.hometowns, they delved into the minds of voters. It is not just
:23:29. > :23:34.women, not just people who live in cities, but if you start to put
:23:35. > :23:40.together these groups of people you can even in an anecdote or way
:23:41. > :23:48.imagine who they are, what types of language and imagery might relate to
:23:49. > :23:53.them. We have been given access to a new polling model being used here by
:23:54. > :23:59.this firm, which is pretty close to the one we are told is being used by
:24:00. > :24:04.the Tories. It carves the country into six personality types, and we
:24:05. > :24:10.are trying it out on Worcester woman and wast of man. We are using an
:24:11. > :24:18.online quiz to work out who is in which segment. Meet new monk,
:24:19. > :24:25.Susie. She feels well represented. I know the Budget and the increases to
:24:26. > :24:30.childcare, I think at the moment I am fairly represented. This puts her
:24:31. > :24:35.in the category of optimistic contentment, people who feel they
:24:36. > :24:43.are doing OK. Terry, on the other hand, isn't happy about Britain
:24:44. > :24:52.today. Health and safety and all that! I hardly recognise the country
:24:53. > :24:59.a living in any more? Yes. Are you ready for the result? He is Mr
:25:00. > :25:03.comfortable nostalgia, they tend to favour the Tories and UKIP. They
:25:04. > :25:09.dislike the cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the
:25:10. > :25:17.worst. That sums me up. Tony is worried as well but feels much less
:25:18. > :25:25.secure. I look forward to the future with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety.
:25:26. > :25:35.Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist. His category is... You feel a bit
:25:36. > :25:42.insecure, you think the Government could probably help you more? Yes.
:25:43. > :25:48.Labour picks up a lot of these voters. This man is being asked to
:25:49. > :25:56.do more and more at work, but he is getting less and less. I am getting
:25:57. > :26:01.more towards the despair side. Things are getting tougher,
:26:02. > :26:07.generally? It puts him into the segment called long-term despair,
:26:08. > :26:17.people who feel left out. Finally, this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am
:26:18. > :26:24.a bit of an idealist. Her idealism makes her a cosmopolitan critic. I
:26:25. > :26:28.am a liberal person. Apparently a lot of the media fit into this
:26:29. > :26:33.category as well. There is one group of voters we have not come across,
:26:34. > :26:38.people who show calm persistence. They hope things will get better but
:26:39. > :26:43.don't expect them to. They are coping, rather than comfortable.
:26:44. > :26:48.Presumably they are all out of work. Which group are you win? You can
:26:49. > :26:52.take the poll on the BBC website, and in the coming weeks we will be
:26:53. > :27:00.doing our own polling using the six segments to see of the politicians
:27:01. > :27:04.really have worked out how we think. And as Adam said, if you want to try
:27:05. > :27:06.the survey for yourself, you can go to the BBC website and click on the
:27:07. > :27:15.link. And we're joined now by the
:27:16. > :27:22.pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to Sunday Politics. We have had
:27:23. > :27:29.Worcester woman, Worcester man, is this any different? It is a
:27:30. > :27:42.recognition that or politician -- all politics these days is like
:27:43. > :27:50.this. It enables them to cut them more finally. You think all politics
:27:51. > :27:55.is coalition politics, you think they have to put together these
:27:56. > :28:01.groups of people, not that the Lib Dems will always be in power? No,
:28:02. > :28:07.and if you listen to the coverage these days you might think it is
:28:08. > :28:12.about grumpy old men on the one hand with Guardian readers on the other.
:28:13. > :28:15.It is far more complicated than that, there is a lot of churning
:28:16. > :28:23.going on underneath which is driven by people's value systems. A lot of
:28:24. > :28:27.this has been pioneered in the United States, very sophisticated on
:28:28. > :28:32.their election techniques, and in Britain we are always the first to
:28:33. > :28:38.grab whatever the New Year will is from America. How do you think this
:28:39. > :28:41.will translate to this country? I think it means that if you are
:28:42. > :28:47.target photo you will still get the same of leaflets and people calling,
:28:48. > :28:52.but you will probably have different kinds of conversations because
:28:53. > :28:59.people on the other side, the party campaigners, will think they know
:29:00. > :29:03.more about you. Will I know who you are? If I am a party campaigner,
:29:04. > :29:08.will I know, looking down the street, who fits into which
:29:09. > :29:11.category? You will be able to approximate that with all of the
:29:12. > :29:17.other data that you have gathered through polling, or doing local
:29:18. > :29:23.campaigning, that is the idea to make sense of this vast quantity of
:29:24. > :29:28.data people have about voters. We asked our panel to fill in your
:29:29. > :29:34.survey. Nick is optimistic contentment, 99%. He was 1%
:29:35. > :29:39.cosmopolitan critic, which is how he keeps his job at the Guardian.
:29:40. > :29:46.Polly's job could not be more secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics,
:29:47. > :29:49.and Janan Ganesh, optimistic contentment, which is what you would
:29:50. > :30:06.expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this
:30:07. > :30:15.technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the
:30:16. > :30:20.population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have
:30:21. > :30:26.got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated
:30:27. > :30:33.methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You
:30:34. > :30:38.said it was used in the US presidential elections. Wasn't there
:30:39. > :30:43.them moment emit Romney 's sweet when the initial response was, we
:30:44. > :30:50.did not know the sort of people voted. His next response was, we did
:30:51. > :30:54.not know these people existed. Unless you know about certain key
:30:55. > :31:00.demographics, you are wasting your time. Is it important in modern
:31:01. > :31:11.campaigning? I think it is useful because it is about attitude. We
:31:12. > :31:16.have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn. It does not tell us very much. What
:31:17. > :31:19.people think and feel may be different to their income. You can
:31:20. > :31:24.be quite a high earner and anxious. You can be quite a low earner and
:31:25. > :31:31.feeling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I think this does
:31:32. > :31:36.get something else. In days gone by, particularly in America,
:31:37. > :31:40.overwhelmingly, if you are in the better of segment, you would be
:31:41. > :31:44.Republican and the blue-collar workers and some academics and
:31:45. > :31:49.Liberals voted Democrat. In the last election, the richest 200 counties
:31:50. > :31:54.in America voted Democrat. That is an attitude thing. Income does not
:31:55. > :31:59.tell you how people will vote. There is a huge, working-class base of
:32:00. > :32:03.support for the Republicans. It is unavoidable. Add a time when people
:32:04. > :32:12.no longer identify with ideologies or class blocks, you have to go the
:32:13. > :32:21.temperament and lifestyle and manageable. In America there were
:32:22. > :32:27.128 segments according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that
:32:28. > :32:32.stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget
:32:33. > :32:40.earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour
:32:41. > :32:48.has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne
:32:49. > :32:54.and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band
:32:55. > :32:56.and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr
:32:57. > :33:12.Miller band. Thank you for being with us today.
:33:13. > :33:16.It's just gone 11:30am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say
:33:17. > :33:19.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics
:33:20. > :33:27.Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes: We'll
:33:28. > :33:29.Scotland. Coming up here in 20 Welcome to Sunday Politics South, my
:33:30. > :33:33.name's Peter Henley. On today's show, we'll be talking to the sister
:33:34. > :33:37.of one murder victim whose killer is arguing that his human rights have
:33:38. > :33:41.been breached. Are we too worried about the rights of the perpetrator,
:33:42. > :33:44.not the victim? More on that shortly. First let's
:33:45. > :33:47.meet the two politicians who'll be with me for the next 20 minutes.
:33:48. > :33:50.Gerald Vernon`Jackson is the Liberal Democrat leader of Portsmouth City
:33:51. > :34:03.Council, and Bob Price is the Labour leader of Oxford City Council.
:34:04. > :34:09.Budget this week, of course. To find cities benefiting I'm sure from some
:34:10. > :34:20.of the economic recovery, but still a lot of the medicine of austerity
:34:21. > :34:25.to take. `` two fine cities. Yes, you cannot live on credit for ever.
:34:26. > :34:33.But it will be painful and there will be more pain to come. People do
:34:34. > :34:37.not really realise that. I think you're right. The next financial
:34:38. > :34:41.year will be the worst year for cuts in local government, starting in
:34:42. > :34:45.April. There will be massive cuts which will be very difficult,
:34:46. > :34:52.particularly in councils which do social services. Is that the same
:34:53. > :34:56.for you? Very much so. We have a long way to go in terms of
:34:57. > :35:01.reductions. Exports also are not doing well and we need to do
:35:02. > :35:07.something about that. But there are new jobs being created in Oxford.
:35:08. > :35:11.Yes, but the fundamental one has been highlighted in the budget.
:35:12. > :35:15.There are many more deficit reductions to go and what they will
:35:16. > :35:21.do two jobs is not clear. Do you think there could be another dip? I
:35:22. > :35:27.think we are clearly on the right lines and the government looks to be
:35:28. > :35:29.going in the right direction. I think the recovery will be
:35:30. > :35:34.sustained. But you need to look at the huge amount of debt which has
:35:35. > :35:38.been built up over the years. It has to be paid back. But there will be
:35:39. > :35:43.jobs created, their jobs being created the whole of Portsmouth and
:35:44. > :35:47.the south`east of Hampshire. That is creating wealth but we need more and
:35:48. > :35:55.more of it to make sure the recovery is sustained. The jobs being created
:35:56. > :35:58.are not wealth creating in a fundamental sense. We have to export
:35:59. > :36:18.a lot more to get that trade deficit down and a lot of the jobs are not
:36:19. > :36:22.support backpack in spread I'm not backpack `` a lot of the jobs are
:36:23. > :36:26.not export related. Should a prisoner be able to claim
:36:27. > :36:29.for compensation if he or she feels they've been failed by the system?
:36:30. > :36:32.In this case, a man who raped and murdered a young woman in Hampshire
:36:33. > :36:34.says his human rights have been breached because the prison service
:36:35. > :36:37.failed to supply adequate rehabilitation courses. Our
:36:38. > :36:39.Hampshire and Isle of Wight reporter Jessica Parker has been to meet the
:36:40. > :36:43.victim's sister... For us to hear the person who
:36:44. > :36:48.murdered my sister may be in line for some kind of compensation, it's
:36:49. > :36:57.just so unfair. It is so unkind and it is just not right. Sheila Painter
:36:58. > :37:02.grew up in Andover her sister, but aged 22, Linda was raped and
:37:03. > :37:08.murdered as she walked home from a friend 's. Months later, to `` a man
:37:09. > :37:13.was given life for the crime. Still incarcerated, Duncan is making a
:37:14. > :37:17.claim against the Scottish prison service which could see him awarded
:37:18. > :37:22.compensation. Arbor Duncan has argued the Scottish prison service
:37:23. > :37:25.failed to provide him with rehabilitation courses which would
:37:26. > :37:29.have increased his chances of gaining parole. A judge has
:37:30. > :37:33.provisionally found that his human rights may have been breached,
:37:34. > :37:38.saying there was no proper opportunity of access to
:37:39. > :37:44.rehabilitation programmes for six years. I know there are certain
:37:45. > :37:50.rights that people have to have, but we did not have any rights. My
:37:51. > :37:55.parents lost the right to have a living daughter. I lost my sister.
:37:56. > :38:04.We lost our rights but he has always rights and people are helping him
:38:05. > :38:08.still. Until April 2007, Duncan had been given a number of therapies,
:38:09. > :38:14.including a programme for sex offenders, a course on victim
:38:15. > :38:22.empathy. Sheila feels her family were left to struggle on alone. If
:38:23. > :38:26.she died in an accident or an illness, you would talk about it
:38:27. > :38:32.freely. We did not talk about her. I feel like I've let her down, really.
:38:33. > :38:37.We've not kept her memory alive as we should've done. The judge's
:38:38. > :38:40.provisional finding site Article five of the European Convention on
:38:41. > :38:45.Human Rights, which protects the right to and security. But the
:38:46. > :38:56.Scottish Government has since won lead to raise a legal challenge, and
:38:57. > :39:03.a letter has been written to David Cameron voicing their complaint.
:39:04. > :39:08.Because Linda was taken away from us in such horrible circumstances, we
:39:09. > :39:14.never talk about her. I've never had the chance to discover how brilliant
:39:15. > :39:18.my aunt was. If Arbor Duncan is claiming his human rights have been
:39:19. > :39:23.infringed, we expect to demonstrate how human years by refusing any form
:39:24. > :39:32.of compensation or by donating any payment to charity. Any decent human
:39:33. > :39:35.would do this. It has been nearly 44 years since Linda was murdered, and
:39:36. > :39:41.Sheila has rarely talked in public about what happened. With this
:39:42. > :39:45.latest development, she feels it is time to speak out. We've got to do
:39:46. > :39:52.it by Linda's sake and my parents, and anyone in the same position. We
:39:53. > :39:55.can't just forget it. Joining me now from our Westminster
:39:56. > :40:00.studio is Simon Creighton, a lawyer specialising in prison law. Why
:40:01. > :40:08.should prisoners be given compensation? It is important to
:40:09. > :40:14.stand back and look what these cases are about. It was made very clear in
:40:15. > :40:18.the judgement of the court that the case was not primarily about
:40:19. > :40:22.obtaining compensation. The case was about the prisoner arguing he should
:40:23. > :40:26.be given the opportunity to reform himself and to address the dangerous
:40:27. > :40:32.aspects of his behaviour that resulted in his offending. In some
:40:33. > :40:36.ways, it is sad the victim was my family have to be dragged through
:40:37. > :40:42.this process again simply because the state has failed to provide the
:40:43. > :40:47.mechanisms that it guarantees will be offered to prisoners so they can
:40:48. > :40:51.reform themselves. They wouldn't have to be dragged through this, as
:40:52. > :40:57.they put it, if it didn't seem that some people have access to get these
:40:58. > :41:07.compensation claims. We are all humans, but some seem to be better
:41:08. > :41:11.protected than others. If you lock somebody up, once you have locked
:41:12. > :41:17.that person up, do you just want to shut the door, throw away the key
:41:18. > :41:21.and forget about them? The way our Criminal Justice Act is organised
:41:22. > :41:26.has never been on that basis, it has always been on the basis that part
:41:27. > :41:29.of the purpose of prisons is to enhance the protection of the public
:41:30. > :41:38.by helping people to reform and change. What about the rights of the
:41:39. > :41:42.victims? It is unhelpful and unfair to set the two in opposition. If you
:41:43. > :41:48.speak to most victims of crime, one thing they want to happen is when
:41:49. > :41:52.people are put in prison, prison genuinely reforms that person.
:41:53. > :41:57.Prison has a role to play in the future protection of society by
:41:58. > :42:02.making sure people come out as law`abiding citizens with respect
:42:03. > :42:05.for authority. I don't think it is really right to see the two things
:42:06. > :42:12.in opposition to each other. They are part of the same political
:42:13. > :42:17.perspective of upholding the law and trying to prevent crime in the
:42:18. > :42:21.future. It is a difficult thing for the public to debate though, isn't
:42:22. > :42:23.it? We have a large prison population and that is because
:42:24. > :42:30.people would rather not think about this a lot of the time. I think that
:42:31. > :42:35.is true. Recently, we saw David Blunkett, who oversaw the faster six
:42:36. > :42:46.mansion of our prison system at any time, admitting that his system was
:42:47. > :42:52.flawed and it created injustices. `` the fastest expansion of our system.
:42:53. > :42:55.I think it would be helpful if politicians would step back and
:42:56. > :42:59.debate these issues genuinely rather than looking for an easy way to hate
:43:00. > :43:10.what might be classed as vulnerable groups. Mr Price, we are spending
:43:11. > :43:14.?40,000 the year on prisoners, we had the largest prison population in
:43:15. > :43:21.western Europe. Are we failing everybody involved? Well, the
:43:22. > :43:28.important thing is that they should be seen as we `` rehabilitated as
:43:29. > :43:39.part of that process. Otherwise that is a waste of money. If you put
:43:40. > :43:42.somebody in for a very long time, the rehabilitation process needs to
:43:43. > :43:46.take place during that period said that ultimately they can be
:43:47. > :43:53.released. Otherwise it is that large expense and of no great benefit to
:43:54. > :44:00.anybody. Countries have very different sentencing policies.
:44:01. > :44:07.Scotland is a different system again. It seems to me there is a
:44:08. > :44:12.duty to the state to provide habilitation so that when people
:44:13. > :44:17.come out they are safe. But it seems obscene, the idea that we would be
:44:18. > :44:23.paying compensation to people from taxpayers' money. That just does not
:44:24. > :44:29.seem right at all. Everybody has rights though. And we subscribe to a
:44:30. > :44:32.European standard for these rights. You are absolutely right, but your
:44:33. > :44:39.rights are limited if you commit crime and you are locked up. You
:44:40. > :44:45.lose your privity `` privacy. So there are different standards for
:44:46. > :44:51.something. Simon, you accept that point, don't you? There are
:44:52. > :44:56.different standards, but where you talk about the right to liberty, you
:44:57. > :44:59.are wrong to take the approach that someone should not be entitled to
:45:00. > :45:04.compensation ever if they are locked up. If the state says your crime
:45:05. > :45:08.deserves three years and you served ten years, is there a reason in
:45:09. > :45:13.principle why the person should not have compensation for the extra
:45:14. > :45:16.seven years? Thank you. Now, if you were watching last week,
:45:17. > :45:19.you'll know that we kicked off our coverage of the European elections
:45:20. > :45:22.by taking the Eurostar to Brussels to talk to MEPs from the five
:45:23. > :45:25.parties with representation in our region. Over the next five weeks
:45:26. > :45:28.we'll be hearing from all of them ` last week it was the Liberal
:45:29. > :45:36.Democrats, today it's the Conservatives. What you want is
:45:37. > :45:40.somebody at the table who is part of that negotiation, who is strongly
:45:41. > :45:52.supporting you, he's really got the interest of Britain at heart, and is
:45:53. > :45:56.not here to set on the sidelines. Julie is the spokesman for the party
:45:57. > :46:00.on agriculture and says the last five years have seen British members
:46:01. > :46:07.of the European Parliament having more influence on policy than ever
:46:08. > :46:10.before. I sit on the fishing committee and I've been very
:46:11. > :46:14.involved in a campaign to form a common fisheries policy. It is
:46:15. > :46:23.incredibly important, especially for small fishermen, the under tens and
:46:24. > :46:28.under 15 that we have in Weymouth, that they are not left out of
:46:29. > :46:35.negotiations. In the past, they have been all about the big Spanish and
:46:36. > :46:40.Scottish fleets. We have an awful situation of throwing stuff away
:46:41. > :46:45.that is good to eat. We had a lot of support for this campaign. All those
:46:46. > :46:50.tens of thousands of people who signed up to petitions and
:46:51. > :46:54.campaigns, that gives us some elbow here in Parliament. So did those
:46:55. > :47:00.people who got in touch with you, did they engage in this place in a
:47:01. > :47:06.way that perhaps surprised them? One thing which has changed in the time
:47:07. > :47:11.I've been here is we have more power now. The Lisbon Treaty took over,
:47:12. > :47:17.and that means that in fishing, for example, all those decisions were
:47:18. > :47:26.made by the member state government. But the Conservatives have less
:47:27. > :47:33.influence here. No, we have more. That is absolutely not the case. You
:47:34. > :47:42.are in a much smaller room with splinter organisations. There was a
:47:43. > :47:46.lot of publicity at the beginning. I personally was worried about some
:47:47. > :47:49.people, but I'm not any more. So what would you say who your
:47:50. > :47:59.constituency say they are now going to vote for UKIP to make a point. I
:48:00. > :48:05.say that is a waste of vote. Not in the European Union, it is a
:48:06. > :48:09.representative vote. Well, then you have a UKIP MEP and what do they do?
:48:10. > :48:14.They come here and they shout and they are rude to people. And all
:48:15. > :48:23.that does is put people off wanting to deal with the bits. Back at the
:48:24. > :48:30.Brits. And yet they are a big threat. David Cameron does not have
:48:31. > :48:36.to pretend to be UKIP. That would be the worst thing. The more you say,
:48:37. > :48:42.yeah, OK, we will go more to the right and be more like UKIP, that is
:48:43. > :48:47.a dangerous road. The Conservative Party has a very strong, very easily
:48:48. > :48:51.understandable policy on Europe. Renegotiate, have a referendum, let
:48:52. > :48:57.the people decide. That is our policy.
:48:58. > :49:01.And over the next few weeks we'll be hearing in turn from UKIP, Labour
:49:02. > :49:05.and the Green Party. Next month we'll also be voting in
:49:06. > :49:13.local elections in some of our councils. Two of those happen to be
:49:14. > :49:18.Portsmouth and Oxford. Mr Price, half of your council is up at the
:49:19. > :49:23.election. Still no Conservatives. We haven't had a conservative on the
:49:24. > :49:28.council until 1998. The debate has been much more civilised as a
:49:29. > :49:35.consequence. You have eight Liberal Democrats who are up for election
:49:36. > :49:39.this time. And two greens. With the Lib Dems, do people have to make a
:49:40. > :49:43.choice at this election is whether they forgive them for their part in
:49:44. > :49:52.national government, would you say? Would be see them as different at a
:49:53. > :49:55.local level? There is a definite differentiation at a local level.
:49:56. > :50:00.There has been a very strong focus on local issues and the reasons why
:50:01. > :50:07.the Lib Dems have done well in North Oxford is because they have looked
:50:08. > :50:19.after nor the Oxford `` North Yorks that very well. They've done well to
:50:20. > :50:23.maintain that over the years. In local elections and by`elections,
:50:24. > :50:28.Lib Dems do seem to have done well. But nationally it is not going to be
:50:29. > :50:32.like that. You can argue as much as you like about national policy, but
:50:33. > :50:36.there is Nick Clegg. And there will be a debate when there is a national
:50:37. > :50:40.election about whether it was right for us to go into coalition and save
:50:41. > :50:43.the country from a Tory only government. I think it was the right
:50:44. > :50:48.thing to do. Just think what they would have done if they were left on
:50:49. > :50:51.their own. There would be the investment in providing educational
:50:52. > :51:01.support for kids from underprivileged backgrounds. It was
:51:02. > :51:06.removed by Mrs Thatcher and brought back by this government. Do you
:51:07. > :51:12.think people really believe that? Beezer joint decisions. With the
:51:13. > :51:17.Tories really have been lifting the low paid out of tax by raising the
:51:18. > :51:20.tax threshold? Nope. They would have been helping the rich by reducing
:51:21. > :51:29.the rate of tax for the very rich even further. Let me remind you your
:51:30. > :51:33.leader came to Oxford and promised that there would be no increase in
:51:34. > :51:38.fees and immediately went into government and raised fees
:51:39. > :51:43.dramatically. I think that will play heavily with the student vote in
:51:44. > :51:47.Oxford. He was mugged by the Conservatives and I'm sorry. He
:51:48. > :51:55.shouldn't have said so. He said sorry as well. Nobody believes him.
:51:56. > :52:01.He shouldn't have done it. My MP voted not to change it. He signed
:52:02. > :52:03.something any gap to his word. Will people see it differently when they
:52:04. > :52:09.get in next May and there have to vote on who they want to form the
:52:10. > :52:13.next government? I think the local issues will be less important and
:52:14. > :52:16.these issues you are raising about broken promises from the Lib Dems,
:52:17. > :52:20.about the way the Tories are handling the economy, they will be
:52:21. > :52:28.at the forefront. And we cannot discount the UKIP effect. Do you
:52:29. > :52:32.think it will carry over? In the national election, we know that
:52:33. > :52:35.people vote on both local issues and national issues. For some it is just
:52:36. > :52:41.about national, for some it is local, and the summit is both. In
:52:42. > :52:47.Portsmouth, there has been troubled. Can you shrug that off by May? Both
:52:48. > :52:50.elections we've had have been after the coalition came in and they've
:52:51. > :52:54.been our most successful ever. I hope that will continue. I think
:52:55. > :52:59.people have seen the transformation of the city over the last ten years.
:53:00. > :53:07.Portsmouth is a much better city and people recognise that. Certainly
:53:08. > :53:11.true of Oxford as well, a long period of Labour control and it has
:53:12. > :53:14.been a good period indeed. I think people will recognise that and give
:53:15. > :53:17.us the votes for it. Now our regular round`up of the
:53:18. > :53:31.political week in the South in 60 seconds.
:53:32. > :53:34.The great Western mainline's ?700 million electrification will be
:53:35. > :53:39.finished in two years. This week, the deal was signed to provide the
:53:40. > :53:42.power. The HS2 became HS2 plus with plans
:53:43. > :53:50.to accelerate northern stages of construction.
:53:51. > :53:54.This train is not so high speed. They want the privately owned train
:53:55. > :53:57.to be replaced by nearly a century. I cannot for the life of me see how
:53:58. > :54:01.they are going to improve on something which has been running for
:54:02. > :54:05.45 years. Southampton council is making
:54:06. > :54:09.?45,000 a month for evening parking charges, but businesses say it is
:54:10. > :54:14.hitting their trade. The AA criticised plans to bring in
:54:15. > :54:23.variable speed limits as the hard shoulder disappears along more than
:54:24. > :54:27.30 miles of the M3 and M4. Meanwhile, there are plans for 4000
:54:28. > :54:34.homes in Oxford. A new ring road will be needed.
:54:35. > :54:40.Infrastructure is so overloaded, isn't it? They are saying people
:54:41. > :54:44.commuting to London will have to start queueing on the platforms
:54:45. > :54:54.because the trains are full and before HS2 arrives that will be the
:54:55. > :55:01.case. It is the reality already at Oxford station. It is very crowded.
:55:02. > :55:06.Certainly the addition of the line will be a huge benefit to Oxford.
:55:07. > :55:13.The roads are harming businesses, aren't they? It was a focal point in
:55:14. > :55:17.our city bid. We have a couple of disaster zones in terms of traffic
:55:18. > :55:24.and we have real problems in Oxford and Banbury in terms of access. Have
:55:25. > :55:29.we left this investment too late? Absolutely. But governments of all
:55:30. > :55:33.colours over the last ten years have not invested in this area. They
:55:34. > :55:37.haven't recognised that we in the south are the heart of this
:55:38. > :55:41.country. We create the wealth that is spent around the rest of the
:55:42. > :55:44.country. There needs to be better investment in our road and rail. If
:55:45. > :55:50.we were in the northern counties, we would have better roads and rails.
:55:51. > :55:54.The average speed from London to Portsmouth on the row way is 45
:55:55. > :55:58.miles an hour. That would not be tolerated in the North of England.
:55:59. > :56:03.But governments of all colours have failed to invest in the south`east
:56:04. > :56:08.and that is not right. That is the end of our discussion, thank you for
:56:09. > :56:10.coming in. Don't forget to keep up`to`date with southern politics by
:56:11. > :56:12.reading my blog ` there's the address at the bottom of the screen.
:56:13. > :56:23.For now though it's back to Andrew. decision, she will weigh up the
:56:24. > :56:39.The big news is the popular server is struggling to control all of the
:56:40. > :56:44.people who want to find out where they fit in the political spectrum.
:56:45. > :56:49.It hasn't quite crashed but it is queueing up those people. Who would
:56:50. > :56:59.have thought the Sunday Politics had so many viewers? It has never
:57:00. > :57:01.happened on the X factor. This morning's papers don't make
:57:02. > :57:04.comfortable reading for Labour with two separate polls showing the
:57:05. > :57:07.party's lead over the Tories is down to just one point. And there's been
:57:08. > :57:11.plenty of criticism of Ed Miliband's response to the Budget. Let's take a
:57:12. > :57:14.look. You know you are in trouble when even the Education Secretary
:57:15. > :57:26.calls you and out of touch bunch of elitist. Where is he? He is hiding!
:57:27. > :57:33.I think he has been consigned to the naughty step by the Prime Minister.
:57:34. > :57:38.The naughty step! And we're joined now by shadow chief secretary to the
:57:39. > :57:42.Treasury, Chris Leslie. There was a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:43. > :57:48.Balls to the Autumn Statement, now a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:49. > :57:54.Miliband to the Budget. Does this show you are struggling at the
:57:55. > :57:59.moment? Of course Ed Balls and Ed Miliband don't want to hear the fact
:58:00. > :58:03.that in reality, for most people, life is getting harder and there is
:58:04. > :58:13.the cost of living crisis. Did we get any mention of that in the
:58:14. > :58:17.Budget? Of course we didn't. We were waiting for action on the cost of
:58:18. > :58:22.living and it wasn't forthcoming. Ed Miliband came up with the tactic of
:58:23. > :58:27.responding to the Budget without mentioning anything that was in it.
:58:28. > :58:31.He mentioned the fact the personal tax allowance was a bit of a
:58:32. > :58:38.giveaway but he takes more with the other hand. He is in favour of that,
:58:39. > :58:42.right? Anything we can get but we need a lot more. Let me tell you
:58:43. > :58:50.something else he mentioned, the fact the national debt has risen by
:58:51. > :58:54.a third and George Osborne and David Cameron... They knew that before the
:58:55. > :59:00.Budget. The borrowing figures were announced and Ed Miliband made
:59:01. > :59:05.reference to those. There is not a lot of happiness on Labour
:59:06. > :59:10.backbenchers about this, is there? And indeed not a lot of happiness in
:59:11. > :59:15.the shadow cabinet. There is concern that Ed Miliband is on a journey to
:59:16. > :59:19.remodel world capitalism whilst George Osborne is firing some love
:59:20. > :59:23.bombs at Middle England by talking about freeing up the pensions market
:59:24. > :59:28.and there is real nerves that what Ed Miliband is saying is not going
:59:29. > :59:34.to be in tune with those middle income earners that the Labour Party
:59:35. > :59:41.has got to attract if they are going to win the general election. When
:59:42. > :59:45.Rachel Reeves used the medium of Radio 4 to announce you were broadly
:59:46. > :59:49.in favour of the pension reforms announced by the Chancellor on
:59:50. > :59:59.Friday night, was that a result of a decision taken by the shadow
:00:00. > :00:06.cabinet? Is With annuities, they are a very old-fashioned product. There
:00:07. > :00:13.are some serious questions which need to be addressed. Was that the
:00:14. > :00:17.result of a Shadow Cabinet decision? We have not had a Shadow
:00:18. > :00:22.Cabinet since the budget. We all want to make sure that we understand
:00:23. > :00:27.the point about flexibility. No one is arguing with that. There are some
:00:28. > :00:30.serious concerns. Let me give you a couple of examples. This is
:00:31. > :00:35.something the Chancellor has done, he claims, for reasons of freedom
:00:36. > :00:39.and flexibility. Is it a coincidence he is grabbing quite a lot of tax
:00:40. > :00:47.from pensioners early on to plug a hole which is necessary because the
:00:48. > :00:53.deficit has not gone down? Forgive me for being slightly cynical about
:00:54. > :00:57.motives. For or against it? We need to have safeguards for protection of
:00:58. > :01:01.pensioners. What will it do for the annuity market if most people still
:01:02. > :01:09.want to have a steadying come for a third of their lives? -- steady
:01:10. > :01:18.income. What does Labour have to do to get it show back on the road? The
:01:19. > :01:22.question is, how do people feel? How many people will still not be
:01:23. > :01:25.feeling better by the next election? Wages may be rising slightly but not
:01:26. > :01:30.for a large and significant number of people. They were just looking at
:01:31. > :01:34.the YouGov poll. If you look at the middle to low earners, they are
:01:35. > :01:39.overwhelmingly pro-labour. Can Labour get those people out to vote?
:01:40. > :01:43.They are really hurting. There are plenty of them. The question is
:01:44. > :01:48.whether people are optimistic because they see figures as if they
:01:49. > :01:53.look as if they are on the up or whether they vote according to how
:01:54. > :01:58.they feel, which will still be very far behind. Cost of living has been
:01:59. > :02:03.a major mantra from Labour. That's that this chart shows how things are
:02:04. > :02:09.beginning to change. What this shows is that, sometime this year, after a
:02:10. > :02:13.long time at which average earnings trailed inflation, they now overtake
:02:14. > :02:20.it in the run-up to the election and they stay there for the forecast
:02:21. > :02:26.period. What do you now do if your cost of living mantra is running out
:02:27. > :02:30.of steam? I am not sure that, for most people, they will recognise the
:02:31. > :02:33.sense that suddenly things will be getting better. Particularly the
:02:34. > :02:39.younger generation are really feeling quite down about the
:02:40. > :02:46.pressures they are facing to make ends meet. You can see the lines are
:02:47. > :02:51.exaggerated because the Y axis on the side starts quite high up. It
:02:52. > :02:55.does not start at zero. The other statistic from the OBR is that we
:02:56. > :02:59.will not be getting back to the point where wages are exceeding
:03:00. > :03:07.prices from the pre-banking crisis period until late 2017. There are
:03:08. > :03:11.some really serious pressures that people are under. What they wanted
:03:12. > :03:16.was a budget that would address concerns and, for the vast majority
:03:17. > :03:22.of people, they will have heard the statement by George Osborne and
:03:23. > :03:30.think, how is it really help them now? It did not address it. It is
:03:31. > :03:35.clear that by 2015, average living standards will probably not have
:03:36. > :03:39.returned to where they were in 2010. Average wages will not have
:03:40. > :03:43.done that. On the other hand, the chart shows the sense of direction
:03:44. > :03:49.is moving in the right way. Which one matters more with the
:03:50. > :03:52.electorate? I suspect it is sense of direction. People sense of
:03:53. > :03:57.prosperity does not need to be buoyant. It has to be something
:03:58. > :04:03.worth preserving. We have to fear the all turn. That is what intrigued
:04:04. > :04:07.me this week. People make too much of a fuss about the Parliamentary
:04:08. > :04:12.response by Ed Miliband. People will forgive a bad day at the dispatch
:04:13. > :04:19.box. What they will not forgive is the absence of a macro economic
:04:20. > :04:24.mess. Labour have a very powerful message on living standards and lots
:04:25. > :04:30.of popular, targeted interventions like the energy price freeze. You
:04:31. > :04:35.can imagine they will be sufficiently nervous about that next
:04:36. > :04:43.year. If living standards are not back to where they were, Labour can
:04:44. > :04:51.say, are you better off now than when you were four years ago? The
:04:52. > :05:03.reason why break and -- wallowed waken one that is because Jimmy
:05:04. > :05:11.Carter mucked it up -- Ronald Reagan. Labour have to say, vote for
:05:12. > :05:15.us and you will get 2 million homes. At the moment, the offer is very
:05:16. > :05:19.modest. You need to find the money to do that. People need to
:05:20. > :05:23.understand that housing is at the very heart of the economy, as well
:05:24. > :05:30.as young people and their aspirations. At the moment, Labour
:05:31. > :05:33.'s offer is not spectacular in. If the focus group shows the cost of
:05:34. > :05:39.living crisis have no longer has the attraction it did, what line do you
:05:40. > :05:41.move onto? Yellow McCoy must remind people of the wasted years and the
:05:42. > :05:49.cost of living pressures they have been under. -- we must remind
:05:50. > :05:58.people. We want a recovery which has low growth, low wage. A race to the
:05:59. > :06:04.bottom. They want a recovery that is felt by everyone, shared and felt by
:06:05. > :06:09.all. Now, here's an idea to twist your melon. Mark Berry, better known
:06:10. > :06:11.as Bez, it says here he's a member of something called The Happy
:06:12. > :06:15.Mondays, wants to stand for parliament. He's best known for
:06:16. > :06:20.being in a band, and not doing very much, so he might fit in. Here he is
:06:21. > :06:48.in action. And Bez joins us from our Salford
:06:49. > :06:56.studio. Good to see you. Is this a genuine candidacy or are you
:06:57. > :07:05.twisting my melon? Amazing how time flies when you're having fun! You
:07:06. > :07:09.having fun doing this candidacy? I am doing the job of the politicians
:07:10. > :07:15.and standing up for the people and bringing attention to the horror of
:07:16. > :07:19.fracking, which is a totally unsafe technology. There is no one in
:07:20. > :07:24.mainstream politics who is discussing or saying anything about
:07:25. > :07:29.it. It is an unsafe technology and it has been proven in America. You
:07:30. > :07:39.see the process in America and the people out on the streets. The whole
:07:40. > :07:44.atmosphere has been made toxic. These people are allowing it to
:07:45. > :07:50.happen in the name of profit. This has been a Labour seat you are
:07:51. > :07:55.fighting in Salford since 1945. It is a tough mountain. Supposing you
:07:56. > :08:02.were to win, could you ever see yourself entering a coalition? With
:08:03. > :08:05.a bit of luck I may be able to shame Labour politicians to do the job
:08:06. > :08:09.properly and stand up for the rights of people. They are not and I am
:08:10. > :08:15.having to do that job. All I am doing is causing debate and bringing
:08:16. > :08:19.to attention the horror that is hanging on our doorsteps. It is not
:08:20. > :08:24.only fracking but GM modified foods that they want to bring into this
:08:25. > :08:32.country as well. Owen Paterson is one of the main lobbyists. Lobbying
:08:33. > :08:38.is legalised bribery, by the way. It is run by the bankers. Basically, we
:08:39. > :08:42.have to stop these monsters from getting into our country and turning
:08:43. > :08:48.our land into a toxic waste. That is what I am trying to say. You are
:08:49. > :08:54.raising the debate, as you are doing with us here. We do not really need
:08:55. > :08:59.fracking. You have done that and you have talked about other things as
:09:00. > :09:06.well. In terms of a new integrity, if you were to become an MP, would
:09:07. > :09:10.you claim expenses? If I ever do get in charge, I would completely enter
:09:11. > :09:15.the banking system and there would be expensive, but they would be like
:09:16. > :09:19.bus passes and train passes. You behave like the people and you are
:09:20. > :09:24.in touch with the people, you move with the people and do understand
:09:25. > :09:28.what the people want. You do not live in acre Kuhn of your own making
:09:29. > :09:36.of luxury, wealth and total disregard of everyone else. -- a
:09:37. > :09:39.cocoon. If you did get into the Palace of Westminster and had to
:09:40. > :09:45.mingle with all these people, who would you rather have in night out
:09:46. > :09:54.with - Mr Cameron, Mr Miller band or Mr Clegg? I would be willing to
:09:55. > :10:02.discuss politics with anybody. I would make them realise what they
:10:03. > :10:09.are doing. I am glad too have a debate and with anyone. The people
:10:10. > :10:15.of Salford, quite a lot people people behind me. I have been
:10:16. > :10:23.speaking to Salford councillors. They are going to lend me their
:10:24. > :10:29.support. The people of Salford, and not to forget the people of Eccles,
:10:30. > :10:34.sending you much. We must stop this horror. There is a monster on our
:10:35. > :10:40.doorstep and we must stop it, people. Do not forget to take your
:10:41. > :10:48.maracas on campaign trail. Would you like a pair to shake yourself? You
:10:49. > :10:54.shake your maracas against fracking! Thanks, Bez, goodbye. Thank you for
:10:55. > :11:01.giving me a little platform to express my views. Now if there's one
:11:02. > :11:03.thing that gets us hot under the collar here at the Sunday Politics
:11:04. > :11:06.it's European elections. The only thing we like more than the
:11:07. > :11:11.elections themselves is a TV debate about them. And we're in luck! Take
:11:12. > :11:14.a look at this. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome leader of
:11:15. > :11:22.the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Gives
:11:23. > :11:30.the most fantastic welcome to Nigel Farage. I would challenge Nigel
:11:31. > :11:37.Farage to a public, open debate, about whether she we should be out
:11:38. > :11:48.all in of the European Union. I will do it for Nick Clegg. Since 2009, I
:11:49. > :11:55.have taken part in 45% of votes in the European Parliament. Nigel
:11:56. > :12:02.Farage has not tabled a single amendment since July 2009. Mr Clegg
:12:03. > :12:10.has only taken part in 22% of votes in the House of commons. You can
:12:11. > :12:22.watch the debate at 7pm on the 2nd of April over on BBC Two. And for a
:12:23. > :12:25.chance to be part of the studio audience on the night and put your
:12:26. > :12:28.question to the two party leaders, e-mail the question you'd like to
:12:29. > :12:30.ask to europedebate@bbc.co.uk or tweet it using the hashtag
:12:31. > :12:34.#europedebate. And Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will be limbering up
:12:35. > :12:42.this week with their first debate on LBC radio on Wednesday. Who is going
:12:43. > :12:47.to come out the best? I suspect Nigel Farage. It is easy to portray
:12:48. > :12:52.Nick Clegg as morally compromised, who has not asserted himself in
:12:53. > :12:57.government. I do wonder about Nigel Farage, whether he is much better at
:12:58. > :13:02.delivering a popular line and responding to the second question of
:13:03. > :13:06.third question. Nick Clegg will win it hands over fist because he knows
:13:07. > :13:10.this stuff. He is right. The evidence that he can produce about
:13:11. > :13:18.what will happen if we pulled out of Europe will, I think, overwhelm
:13:19. > :13:25.Nigel Farage 's one-liners. They will both be winners because you
:13:26. > :13:29.will have the rare sight of the pro-European saying he likes the
:13:30. > :13:35.European Union. That is unlike Eurosceptics who tie themselves up
:13:36. > :13:48.in knots. 14 Nigel, one for Nick and one for both. There you go. Here is
:13:49. > :13:52.a mess, it is Janen Ganesh. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is
:13:53. > :13:55.on BBC Two at Lunchtime every day this week, I'll be back here next
:13:56. > :13:57.week with Energy Secretary Ed Davey. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the
:13:58. > :14:03.Sunday Politics.