:00:39. > :00:45.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until
:00:46. > :00:50.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader
:00:51. > :00:53.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections
:00:54. > :00:58.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls
:00:59. > :01:03.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a
:01:04. > :01:07.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised
:01:08. > :01:11.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the
:01:12. > :01:23.In the South: Have you made up your campaign trail, he has been
:01:24. > :01:24.In the South: Have you made up your mind who
:01:25. > :01:28.this week, a last look at the euro elections, and the 50th anniversary
:01:29. > :01:38.of the first elections to London's 32 boroughs. I am in the studio
:01:39. > :01:47.with those who think they have got all the big answers. Nick Watt,
:01:48. > :01:51.Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it is the European elections for
:01:52. > :01:54.everybody on Thursday, local elections for England and a bit of
:01:55. > :01:59.Northern Ireland as well. They are the last elections before the big
:02:00. > :02:03.one, the 2015 general election. Some say that these European and local
:02:04. > :02:08.elections will not be much of a pointer to how the big one goes But
:02:09. > :02:13.that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from
:02:14. > :02:18.examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is
:02:19. > :02:39.local elections and European Parliament elections.
:02:40. > :02:46.These local results should be known by Friday. In the European
:02:47. > :02:51.elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected
:02:52. > :02:56.across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But
:02:57. > :02:59.the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has
:03:00. > :03:05.closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are
:03:06. > :03:08.in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the
:03:09. > :03:13.outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still
:03:14. > :03:17.wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is
:03:18. > :03:21.difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll
:03:22. > :03:25.which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and
:03:26. > :03:31.another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more
:03:32. > :03:37.slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know,
:03:38. > :03:41.but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months
:03:42. > :03:46.ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the
:03:47. > :03:50.Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's
:03:51. > :03:54.share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment,
:03:55. > :03:59.and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results,
:04:00. > :04:02.whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be
:04:03. > :04:06.Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down
:04:07. > :04:11.from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one
:04:12. > :04:14.year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a
:04:15. > :04:21.significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be
:04:22. > :04:25.worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all
:04:26. > :04:29.have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are
:04:30. > :04:34.saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is
:04:35. > :04:43.Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly
:04:44. > :04:52.resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and
:04:53. > :04:56.incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one,
:04:57. > :05:01.but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done,
:05:02. > :05:05.to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland,
:05:06. > :05:10.Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which
:05:11. > :05:17.makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but
:05:18. > :05:20.whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent
:05:21. > :05:25.event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the
:05:26. > :05:30.Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a
:05:31. > :05:34.national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly
:05:35. > :05:39.historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across
:05:40. > :05:46.Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. --
:05:47. > :05:51.populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely
:05:52. > :05:55.ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general
:05:56. > :05:58.election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but
:05:59. > :06:02.they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works
:06:03. > :06:09.fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four...
:06:10. > :06:14.We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP.
:06:15. > :06:17.She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an
:06:18. > :06:22.earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what
:06:23. > :06:27.does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I
:06:28. > :06:33.think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been
:06:34. > :06:38.around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European
:06:39. > :06:42.elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are
:06:43. > :06:45.looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 015,
:06:46. > :06:50.getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes
:06:51. > :06:53.on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense
:06:54. > :06:57.policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want
:06:58. > :07:00.to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election If
:07:01. > :07:11.we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim.
:07:12. > :07:16.You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the
:07:17. > :07:19.stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and
:07:20. > :07:24.members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least I
:07:25. > :07:28.would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You
:07:29. > :07:33.could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around
:07:34. > :07:39.for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you
:07:40. > :07:44.had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17
:07:45. > :07:47.Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either
:07:48. > :07:50.arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition
:07:51. > :07:55.we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist
:07:56. > :07:58.sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of
:07:59. > :08:02.that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I
:08:03. > :08:05.certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who
:08:06. > :08:12.have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even
:08:13. > :08:16.putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions
:08:17. > :08:21.or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the
:08:22. > :08:25.BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any
:08:26. > :08:31.other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something
:08:32. > :08:35.loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party.
:08:36. > :08:40.We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of
:08:41. > :08:41.expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage,
:08:42. > :08:48.who is a fantastic, the media focuses on Nigel Farage,
:08:49. > :08:52.leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get
:08:53. > :08:58.our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many
:08:59. > :09:04.more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers We
:09:05. > :09:11.are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by
:09:12. > :09:14.Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between
:09:15. > :09:20.television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how
:09:21. > :09:25.much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like
:09:26. > :09:29.the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in
:09:30. > :09:34.conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a
:09:35. > :09:40.joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote
:09:41. > :09:45.UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party
:09:46. > :09:53.line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says ..
:09:54. > :09:57.On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is
:09:58. > :10:02.obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a
:10:03. > :10:09.manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have
:10:10. > :10:13.put forward a lot of positive - a lot of policies at local government
:10:14. > :10:18.level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual
:10:19. > :10:22.local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a
:10:23. > :10:27.school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best
:10:28. > :10:30.interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any
:10:31. > :10:36.party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.
:10:37. > :10:40.People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their
:10:41. > :10:44.party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote
:10:45. > :10:48.to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a
:10:49. > :10:54.road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road
:10:55. > :10:59.map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.
:11:00. > :11:03.Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but
:11:04. > :11:07.there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There
:11:08. > :11:13.is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that
:11:14. > :11:17.detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.
:11:18. > :11:21.We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong
:11:22. > :11:26.position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade
:11:27. > :11:33.deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What
:11:34. > :11:39.would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for
:11:40. > :11:43.back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade
:11:44. > :11:47.agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the
:11:48. > :11:51.European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975
:11:52. > :11:59.involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do
:12:00. > :12:03.not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply
:12:04. > :12:12.concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew it
:12:13. > :12:15.sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is
:12:16. > :12:22.better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds
:12:23. > :12:25.like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all
:12:26. > :12:29.manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our
:12:30. > :12:34.sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if
:12:35. > :12:39.a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am
:12:40. > :12:44.surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in
:12:45. > :12:48.next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different
:12:49. > :12:58.from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they
:12:59. > :13:02.being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being
:13:03. > :13:06.trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I
:13:07. > :13:09.do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian
:13:10. > :13:12.approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were
:13:13. > :13:17.learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British
:13:18. > :13:19.economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out
:13:20. > :13:35.how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24
:13:36. > :13:39.hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours
:13:40. > :13:47.in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make
:13:48. > :13:51.up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in
:13:52. > :13:55.Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local
:13:56. > :13:59.and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at
:14:00. > :14:04.eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and
:14:05. > :14:13.producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm
:14:14. > :14:23.welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.
:14:24. > :14:27.One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got
:14:28. > :14:31.Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and
:14:32. > :14:35.that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but
:14:36. > :14:41.it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members
:14:42. > :14:50.for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top
:14:51. > :14:53.Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in
:14:54. > :14:58.traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in
:14:59. > :15:04.time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to
:15:05. > :15:09.Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not
:15:10. > :15:15.even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We
:15:16. > :15:21.will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the
:15:22. > :15:22.Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the
:15:23. > :15:38.Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses
:15:39. > :15:42.upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a
:15:43. > :15:51.referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.
:15:52. > :15:59.I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about
:16:00. > :16:02.elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at
:16:03. > :16:05.our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in
:16:06. > :16:10.Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from
:16:11. > :16:21.chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was
:16:22. > :16:26.boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just
:16:27. > :16:33.hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft
:16:34. > :16:41.their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who
:16:42. > :16:48.live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed
:16:49. > :16:50.Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls
:16:51. > :16:54.lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who
:16:55. > :17:07.is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're
:17:08. > :17:12.flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right
:17:13. > :17:19.place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning
:17:20. > :17:26.as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said
:17:27. > :17:32.the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If
:17:33. > :17:37.he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not
:17:38. > :17:42.forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40
:17:43. > :17:48.minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for
:17:49. > :17:57.something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home
:17:58. > :18:10.for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy
:18:11. > :18:16.elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack
:18:17. > :18:20.Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens
:18:21. > :18:29.used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went
:18:30. > :18:37.wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs
:18:38. > :18:41.and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these
:18:42. > :18:44.elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party
:18:45. > :18:51.calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making
:18:52. > :18:58.poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have
:18:59. > :19:04.made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the
:19:05. > :19:09.left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative
:19:10. > :19:16.vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I
:19:17. > :19:19.met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane
:19:20. > :19:25.exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond
:19:26. > :19:29.issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned
:19:30. > :19:34.about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the
:19:35. > :19:40.Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price
:19:41. > :19:48.bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the
:19:49. > :19:57.same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline
:19:58. > :20:01.greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs
:20:02. > :20:07.and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our
:20:08. > :20:10.economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has
:20:11. > :20:17.sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one
:20:18. > :20:23.planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by
:20:24. > :20:28.renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on
:20:29. > :20:35.days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It
:20:36. > :20:39.is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a
:20:40. > :20:45.smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to
:20:46. > :20:50.supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to
:20:51. > :21:00.work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and
:21:01. > :21:04.we are losing opportunities. 50 of German renewable electricity is
:21:05. > :21:14.owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the
:21:15. > :21:25.big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French
:21:26. > :21:32.nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,
:21:33. > :21:35.going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government
:21:36. > :21:41.proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two
:21:42. > :21:46.plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.
:21:47. > :21:50.We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more
:21:51. > :21:56.seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined
:21:57. > :22:02.strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's
:22:03. > :22:07.throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise
:22:08. > :22:11.council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by
:22:12. > :22:17.other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at
:22:18. > :22:23.the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor
:22:24. > :22:29.numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in
:22:30. > :22:34.Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are
:22:35. > :22:39.the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of
:22:40. > :22:46.Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a
:22:47. > :22:51.debate to be had from next year s election and perhaps we can have
:22:52. > :22:56.that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city
:22:57. > :23:00.should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be
:23:01. > :23:09.brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride
:23:10. > :23:14.in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the
:23:15. > :23:22.people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in
:23:23. > :23:27.Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do
:23:28. > :23:35.most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.
:23:36. > :24:09.Probably a good move. Thank you I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,
:24:10. > :24:19.the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a
:24:20. > :24:23.European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and
:24:24. > :24:28.only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with
:24:29. > :24:35.the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP
:24:36. > :24:40.party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions
:24:41. > :24:44.usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on
:24:45. > :24:51.to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it
:24:52. > :24:57.suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well
:24:58. > :25:01.either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation
:25:02. > :25:07.has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will
:25:08. > :25:11.not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to
:25:12. > :25:16.hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come
:25:17. > :25:20.out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we
:25:21. > :25:26.want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child
:25:27. > :25:31.tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but
:25:32. > :25:38.Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to
:25:39. > :25:42.halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to
:25:43. > :25:47.the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done
:25:48. > :25:57.to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in
:25:58. > :26:03.the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be
:26:04. > :26:11.lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never
:26:12. > :26:13.knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support
:26:14. > :26:20.because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit
:26:21. > :26:30.like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now
:26:31. > :26:34.we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make
:26:35. > :26:40.together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that
:26:41. > :26:49.only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been
:26:50. > :26:54.shown not to be the only ones. 4 out of 100. If we were to come out
:26:55. > :27:04.of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the
:27:05. > :27:09.jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives
:27:10. > :27:14.comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't
:27:15. > :27:19.really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been
:27:20. > :27:23.there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite
:27:24. > :27:28.being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on
:27:29. > :27:32.Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we
:27:33. > :27:36.wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal
:27:37. > :27:41.Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.
:27:42. > :27:50.But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have
:27:51. > :27:57.taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We
:27:58. > :28:01.are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our
:28:02. > :28:11.relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why
:28:12. > :28:14.has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your
:28:15. > :28:20.own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we
:28:21. > :28:26.have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will
:28:27. > :28:31.decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is
:28:32. > :28:39.that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon
:28:40. > :28:48.and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband
:28:49. > :28:57.said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy
:28:58. > :29:06.prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower
:29:07. > :29:10.than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general
:29:11. > :29:15.election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this
:29:16. > :29:19.question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David
:29:20. > :29:24.Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in
:29:25. > :29:28.the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties
:29:29. > :29:34.that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who
:29:35. > :29:39.say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has
:29:40. > :29:45.given rise for support for UKIP and we are the ones talking about doing
:29:46. > :29:49.something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader
:29:50. > :29:59.bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of
:30:00. > :30:04.the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who
:30:05. > :30:09.think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak
:30:10. > :30:12.to people about it, people understand that we are better in
:30:13. > :30:17.them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs
:30:18. > :30:20.Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have
:30:21. > :30:25.battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to
:30:26. > :30:30.take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been
:30:31. > :30:36.delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.
:30:37. > :30:42.-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,
:30:43. > :30:47.people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's
:30:48. > :30:50.antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable
:30:51. > :30:55.housing they need. We as a government have delivered more
:30:56. > :30:58.affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties
:30:59. > :31:10.earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out
:31:11. > :31:16.that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in
:31:17. > :31:20.2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly
:31:21. > :31:26.half a million affordable homes Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher
:31:27. > :31:31.or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions
:31:32. > :31:39.of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I
:31:40. > :31:42.would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the
:31:43. > :31:46.deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now
:31:47. > :31:51.have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people
:31:52. > :31:54.employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say
:31:55. > :31:59.that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We
:32:00. > :32:03.need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.
:32:04. > :32:08.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are
:32:09. > :32:15.the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any
:32:16. > :32:21.change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think
:32:22. > :32:25.like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree
:32:26. > :32:30.with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply
:32:31. > :32:35.would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the
:32:36. > :32:39.workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now
:32:40. > :32:45.privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the
:32:46. > :32:47.coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level
:32:48. > :32:53.since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got
:32:54. > :32:56.a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies
:32:57. > :33:02.which directly address the problems which people face. I think the
:33:03. > :33:05.public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for
:33:06. > :33:11.the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum We
:33:12. > :33:14.are in favour, we voted for one we have legislated for one. The next
:33:15. > :33:18.time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the
:33:19. > :33:25.relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.
:33:26. > :33:32.We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.
:33:33. > :33:38.We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying
:33:39. > :33:40.in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall
:33:41. > :33:50.transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for
:33:51. > :33:56.this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to
:33:57. > :34:01.leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives but
:34:02. > :34:05.we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the
:34:06. > :34:12.future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built
:34:13. > :34:15.our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want
:34:16. > :34:20.artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out
:34:21. > :34:25.of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being
:34:26. > :34:28.positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep
:34:29. > :34:33.absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said
:34:34. > :34:36.that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British
:34:37. > :34:42.withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a
:34:43. > :34:52.successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am
:34:53. > :34:58.very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with
:34:59. > :35:04.confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he
:35:05. > :35:08.said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the
:35:09. > :35:13.party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you
:35:14. > :35:16.agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and
:35:17. > :35:21.then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a
:35:22. > :35:24.line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with
:35:25. > :35:30.Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay
:35:31. > :35:34.in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am
:35:35. > :35:37.not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every
:35:38. > :35:42.question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!
:35:43. > :35:47.I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at
:35:48. > :35:54.our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn
:35:55. > :36:00.what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems
:36:01. > :36:03.towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at
:36:04. > :36:08.sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,
:36:09. > :36:14.we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the
:36:15. > :36:19.Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.
:36:20. > :36:22.It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of
:36:23. > :36:27.powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we
:36:28. > :36:34.believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for
:36:35. > :36:41.economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our
:36:42. > :36:44.relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday
:36:45. > :36:51.will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything
:36:52. > :36:57.you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I
:36:58. > :37:03.am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the
:37:04. > :37:06.dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that
:37:07. > :37:10.Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth
:37:11. > :37:16.is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of
:37:17. > :37:28.a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one
:37:29. > :37:32.more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection
:37:33. > :37:36.with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should
:37:37. > :37:40.vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just
:37:41. > :37:44.that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot
:37:45. > :37:47.more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at
:37:48. > :37:51.Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not
:37:52. > :37:56.been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that
:37:57. > :37:59.is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible
:38:00. > :38:03.of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of
:38:04. > :38:10.the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.
:38:11. > :38:17.We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -
:38:18. > :38:21.he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday
:38:22. > :38:24.Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for
:38:25. > :38:36.Welcome to Sunday Politics South ` Sunday Politics Scotland.
:38:37. > :38:43.Welcome to Sunday Politics South ` my name's Peter Henley. We're at
:38:44. > :38:48.Milestones Museum in Basingstoke today. As you can see, it's a museum
:38:49. > :38:51.dedicated to British life, so where better to come to discuss Thursday's
:38:52. > :38:53.European elections? I'm joined by candidates from the five parties
:38:54. > :38:56.currently representing the South. Ray Finch is standing for UKIP,
:38:57. > :38:58.Julie Girling for the Conservatives, Catherine Bearder for the Lhberal
:38:59. > :39:03.Democrats, Anneliese Dodds for Labour and Keith Taylor for the
:39:04. > :39:07.Green Party. We've asked all our candidates to start off with a 5
:39:08. > :39:18.second pitch for why you should vote for their party.
:39:19. > :39:21.Only the Conservatives have a fundamental plan for change in
:39:22. > :39:24.Europe. It is a believable one because we have a track record of
:39:25. > :39:30.showing through our Prime Mhnister that we can deliver change. We
:39:31. > :39:34.delivered a decrease in the budget against all the odds. Everyone said
:39:35. > :39:40.he could not do it and he dhd. The Conservatives were in the forefront
:39:41. > :39:48.of that. Do you want me to stop That is more than 15 seconds. Ray
:39:49. > :39:52.Finch? You have seen over the last few weeks if concerted effort by our
:39:53. > :39:57.enemies in other parties and the place to attack UKIP, both our
:39:58. > :40:00.candidates and our supporters. It is because they are afraid. Thdy are
:40:01. > :40:05.afraid of the electorate. On Thursday make a difference. Tell
:40:06. > :40:14.them that you are not happy any more. Bought for UKIP. Cathdrine
:40:15. > :40:21.Beard. Only the liberal democrats are an ambiguous leave the party of
:40:22. > :40:26.in. We are in Europe for jobs, security, and environment. Durope is
:40:27. > :40:31.not going to go away. We nedd strong voices around the table standing up
:40:32. > :40:40.for the Southeast in the Parliament in Europe. Annalisa Dodds? We need
:40:41. > :40:45.action in Britain to deal whth the cost of living crisis that has
:40:46. > :40:50.affected so many families and also Labour is the only party th`t will
:40:51. > :40:54.take action in Europe to focus on jobs and growth and stopping the
:40:55. > :41:04.spiral to the bottom in wagds and living standards. Keith Taylor? The
:41:05. > :41:09.Green Party wants to be part of Europe but we think it needs to
:41:10. > :41:13.change. We need to make a dtde at for the common good where an economy
:41:14. > :41:21.exists that you can build jobs for life on. We need people and the
:41:22. > :41:24.environment at the centre of politics and not private profit If
:41:25. > :41:30.you want a better future yot know what to do on Thursday. Thank you.
:41:31. > :41:37.So, those were the job applhcations ` what exactly is the job all about
:41:38. > :41:46.though? Between the 22nd and the 25th of May 500 million people in 28
:41:47. > :41:49.countries will elect 751 MEPs. But how many of that 500 million, how
:41:50. > :41:55.many of us, know what these MEPs will do when they actually get you
:41:56. > :42:02.to Brussels? For starters they will be joining new party groupings. The
:42:03. > :42:04.26 British Conservatives left the largest group in the Parlialent to
:42:05. > :42:10.sit with the European Conservatives And Reformists which is the third
:42:11. > :42:13.smallest, just 56 MEPs. The Liberal Democrats' 11 MEPs sit as p`rt of
:42:14. > :42:19.the 85 strong Alliance Of Lhberals And Democrats For Europe. Whilst
:42:20. > :42:21.Labour's 13 MEPs are a part of the second biggest group in the
:42:22. > :42:28.Parliament, the Party Of European Socialists. The Greens may be the
:42:29. > :42:31.smallest contingent from thd UK just two MEPs, but they are part of
:42:32. > :42:36.the fourth largest grouping in the Parliament, 58 members. The UKIP
:42:37. > :42:41.contingent fits with the Europe For Freedom And Democracy group, which
:42:42. > :42:44.is the smallest with 33 members Also they will not just be working
:42:45. > :42:47.in Brussels. A dozen times ` year the whole Parliament, MEPs,
:42:48. > :42:49.assistants and translators decamp to Strasbourg, where there is this
:42:50. > :43:00.rather swish building for them to work in for 48 days, built `t a cost
:43:01. > :43:05.of 470 euros million. Atomitm, symbol of Brussels. Brussels, symbol
:43:06. > :43:10.of the European project. Thdy were the future once. Have they lost
:43:11. > :43:13.their shine now? For the first time in its history the new parlhament
:43:14. > :43:17.will get to choose the Preshdent of the Commission. You might h`ve
:43:18. > :43:22.missed the presidential deb`tes this week. Surely all the candid`tes will
:43:23. > :43:25.have been glued to them? After that it is back to the day job,
:43:26. > :43:28.accepting, amending, rejecthng the draft legislation in about 80 key
:43:29. > :43:29.policy areas like the singld market, consumer protection, civil
:43:30. > :43:44.liberties, agriculture and the environment.
:43:45. > :43:48.We talk a lot about Europe having greater influence over fears in
:43:49. > :43:54.Britain. But so many people seem to feel that this fault is not
:43:55. > :43:59.important. It is important for the economy, isn't it? With Britain have
:44:00. > :44:05.fewer jobs or more jobs in five years if we let EU? Fewer jobs of
:44:06. > :44:10.course. We have heard that from many of our big manufacturers, b`nks
:44:11. > :44:13.industrial leaders. They ard seeing that if we were to leave thd EU they
:44:14. > :44:18.would have to consider their position and quite likely move away
:44:19. > :44:25.from the UK. Within what period of time? Ten years? You cannot just up
:44:26. > :44:28.a factory and move. But thex would look to be inside the Europdan
:44:29. > :44:35.Union. That is why they are here, very many of them. It would not just
:44:36. > :44:39.start then. It would start `s soon as... Even now. People are saying
:44:40. > :44:49.they are considering whether to invest in the UK and all thd state
:44:50. > :44:54.is making them look to other States. The uncertainty is affecting our
:44:55. > :45:01.economy now. If we were to leave, we now millions of jobs would be
:45:02. > :45:06.affected. That's cannot be good It is a fib. This 3 million jobs think
:45:07. > :45:26.that they come out with camd from a study in 2000 and the person who ran
:45:27. > :45:36.that was not trustworthy. They can see what they like. It is not as. I
:45:37. > :45:40.let you speak. What we are `sking for is a free and fair tradd
:45:41. > :45:46.agreement. What we do not w`nt is a political Union. What we were sold
:45:47. > :45:50.in the 1970s was a trading agreement. Since then everything has
:45:51. > :45:56.been added on. It was not what we were told. We want out. Julhe going.
:45:57. > :46:02.David Cameron is offering a referendum. What do you think about
:46:03. > :46:11.whether jobs would be lost or gained by us pulling out? The issud about
:46:12. > :46:14.big business is clear. The car industry, British aerospace, have
:46:15. > :46:18.all said that Britain would be a less attractive place in thd medium
:46:19. > :46:23.and long`term without being part of the European Union. But most British
:46:24. > :46:28.people work for small busindsses work for themselves. It is those
:46:29. > :46:32.people that we conservatives are really concerned about getthng a
:46:33. > :46:37.better deal for. At the momdnt they are having to struggle throtgh red
:46:38. > :46:42.tape, rules and regulations, that they do not need to be doing, in
:46:43. > :46:47.order to trade. Particularlx if they are only trading in the UK. But
:46:48. > :46:53.negotiating a new deal is creating certainty? I think we have been
:46:54. > :46:59.living with uncertainty in the UK because of your doorstep thhs is for
:47:00. > :47:03.a long time. Now we are presenting more certainty. That certainty is
:47:04. > :47:10.that the Conservative Party will deliver in 2017 RF at randol, and
:47:11. > :47:18.you will get an answer. We will put this issue to bed for a gendration.
:47:19. > :47:23.Annalisa Dodds? Your position means we have three years of not knowing
:47:24. > :47:28.what are situation is. In rdsponse to Ray Finch, I visited a c`r
:47:29. > :47:33.factory in Oxford recently. I spoke to the staff fear. You can see we
:47:34. > :47:37.are making it up, but I spoke to people who were working beer, and
:47:38. > :47:41.they said they would have to think very carefully about investlent
:47:42. > :47:48.decisions in the future if ht looks like Britain well pull out of the
:47:49. > :47:52.EU. They are not lying. We want if free trade agreement. We do not need
:47:53. > :48:01.the political Union. I let xou speak. Let me speak. We do not want
:48:02. > :48:07.a political Union. BMW were going to open a new plant in Germany. But
:48:08. > :48:11.because of European Union t`xes they have spent money in the United
:48:12. > :48:21.States instead. That is trud. But they are respecting more an hour
:48:22. > :48:26.region. Companies said if wd did not join the euro they would not invest.
:48:27. > :48:34.They still did. We can tradd with the world. Not just be shackled to
:48:35. > :48:41.the dying courts of the EU. Who will you negotiate with first? Alerica or
:48:42. > :48:49.the EU? Article 50 of the Lhsbon Treaty sees within two years the EU
:48:50. > :48:54.and the UK have the right to organise three trade agreemdnts If
:48:55. > :48:57.they cannot do it within two years they will lose their biggest trading
:48:58. > :49:03.partner. All those would fedl immediately. You are very kden on
:49:04. > :49:09.the European free trade are`. Do you believe that regarding the
:49:10. > :49:13.immigration question those countries should increase their incomd so that
:49:14. > :49:19.those people will not move `round so much? It is quite fitting that we
:49:20. > :49:22.are having this discussion hn a museum of British history. Puite
:49:23. > :49:27.frankly the idea is that all these parties have, of his establhshment
:49:28. > :49:31.parties, they won in the past. You are just as big an establishment
:49:32. > :49:37.party as any of these. You `re funded by millionaire bankers. We
:49:38. > :49:42.are not funded by a single banker. You are trying to scare the public.
:49:43. > :49:46.What's the Green Party is s`ying is that we need to put people `nd the
:49:47. > :49:54.environment at the centre of things and not simply private profht. The
:49:55. > :50:00.people you are putting at the centre of politics are amongst the coolest
:50:01. > :50:09.in Europe. That is Green Party policy. `` amongst the least well
:50:10. > :50:13.off in Europe. We are looking at the less well off countries and helping
:50:14. > :50:26.them develop. I do not have a problem with that. Where will they
:50:27. > :50:31.go to buy the JCBs? All of that money is spent in the Europdan
:50:32. > :50:38.Union. That creates an markdt. Once they are up and trading equ`lly we
:50:39. > :50:43.can buy and sell from them. We have got to ask ourselves what wd are
:50:44. > :50:48.trying to achieve. Consuming resources we have not got, nobody
:50:49. > :50:52.needs a second dishwasher. We are going to take a pause for a second.
:50:53. > :50:55.Our five guests here aren't the only parties standing. There'll `ctually
:50:56. > :50:59.be 15 on the ballot paper in the South East, eight in the Sotth West.
:51:00. > :51:04.And here's a flavour of what some of the others are standing for.
:51:05. > :51:07.The British National party has one MEP and whilst he's been a lember of
:51:08. > :51:12.the European Parliament he has highlighted the corruption he has
:51:13. > :51:17.found within it. They also introduced the British Parlhament
:51:18. > :51:28.not to go to war with Syria. If one MEP can be that influential, imagine
:51:29. > :51:31.the influence of ten would have Only in a society where we can give
:51:32. > :51:35.free rein to creativity and take freely from social production can we
:51:36. > :51:40.be free because we will be living a life without price. We are `ll
:51:41. > :51:43.members of one human family and in a family that functions we give
:51:44. > :51:52.according to ability and take according to need.
:51:53. > :51:55.Liberty GB will halt immigr`tion, which is behind the housing shortage
:51:56. > :52:03.in the South East, for five years and deport illegal immigrants. We
:52:04. > :52:09.will stimulate house`building and help benefit claimants into work.
:52:10. > :52:19.Liberty GB promotes British culture and values.
:52:20. > :52:24.Fed up with politicians who do not take your opinion into accotnt? Your
:52:25. > :52:27.Voice is a real alternative using the internet to break down barriers
:52:28. > :52:30.between you and your MEPs. Xour Voice party provides everyone with a
:52:31. > :52:47.platform to express their opinions and suggest solutions. A vote for
:52:48. > :52:50.Your Voice is a vote for yotr voice. Right now we support leaving the
:52:51. > :52:55.European Union where there `re high levels of corruption at all levels
:52:56. > :52:58.of democracy. Also the EU sdems to be almost wilfully walking `way from
:52:59. > :53:03.the Christian heritage that many nations were built upon. We pledge
:53:04. > :53:16.to work in Brussels for the democratic and moral truth whilst we
:53:17. > :53:20.still can. The three movement of Labour within
:53:21. > :53:27.Europe, one of full 's issuds minor parties are campaigning upon as well
:53:28. > :53:34.as major parties. What we are electing as a European Parlhament.
:53:35. > :53:39.Dreams are strong in Brussels whilst they are not so strong at
:53:40. > :53:42.Westminster. The Labour Party says they have learned lessons. Ht as
:53:43. > :53:48.they have learned lessons. Ht is the in all the would you do
:53:49. > :53:51.differently? What we need to concentrate on is where migration
:53:52. > :53:54.appears to be costing probldms to the living standards of people. It
:53:55. > :53:59.is only Labour that has set out a problem to deal with that. We say we
:54:00. > :54:06.need to stop enforcing the linimum wage. We need more powers to the
:54:07. > :54:10.licensing authorities. We nded more regulation of the private rdnted
:54:11. > :54:13.sector. If we do that we. The spiralling to the bottom th`t we
:54:14. > :54:18.have seen in some parts of this region. This is not about mhgrants
:54:19. > :54:21.themselves. That is not what people are complaining about. They are
:54:22. > :54:27.worried about the impact of that on their jobs and housing. That is why
:54:28. > :54:31.Labour is seeing we will do something about that. We have set
:54:32. > :54:36.that out. Julie Girling, David Cameron says there is not a lot we
:54:37. > :54:44.can do if we are not part of the EU. Anneliese Dodds has gond through
:54:45. > :54:53.a range of centralised policies There is nothing new there. Most
:54:54. > :54:58.people I speak to are not worried about people taking jobs if there
:54:59. > :55:01.are jobs available, and people on the come if there are jobs
:55:02. > :55:05.available. People do not want to come to the UK and hang arotnd if
:55:06. > :55:08.they are not able to get into benefits. That is where this
:55:09. > :55:14.Government has made a big difference. From January thhs year
:55:15. > :55:20.you had to qualify through ` three`month residency beford you
:55:21. > :55:26.were eligible for unemploymdnt or housing benefit. That is thd sort of
:55:27. > :55:31.action people want to see. Could you not see that is just fiddling around
:55:32. > :55:38.the edges? David Cameron wotld say that our current deal with the
:55:39. > :55:46.European Union says that three movement of Labour is part of it.
:55:47. > :55:51.But did not see free movement of people. That is something that could
:55:52. > :55:55.be part of our renegotiation. The reality that we have to deal with at
:55:56. > :56:01.the moment, and that is somdthing that this Government has de`lt with,
:56:02. > :56:05.by changing the eligibility rules and regulations for migrants, that
:56:06. > :56:13.is the thing that is most ilportant to people. One of the promises of
:56:14. > :56:19.the Conservatives is this qtestion of a minimum income average for
:56:20. > :56:26.people to move around the Etropean Union. Is that desirable? Is it
:56:27. > :56:34.possible? EU migration is worth 60 billion to the UK. EU migrant
:56:35. > :56:48.WoodMac P 37% more into the Exchequer than non`EU migrants. ``
:56:49. > :56:53.migrants from the EU pay 37$ more. Britain has been a melting pot for
:56:54. > :56:57.centuries. That is part of our diversity which I celebrate. I do
:56:58. > :57:16.not think there is any such thing as the wrong sort of immigrant. The
:57:17. > :57:21.fact is what we are looking at us while we are in the EU we h`ve no
:57:22. > :57:27.choice over who we are into this country. What we want our skilled
:57:28. > :57:31.migrants. We want people who will contribute to this country. We do
:57:32. > :57:34.not want more people who will suppress the wages of the working
:57:35. > :57:41.class by being used by big business. That is what is happening. Xou have
:57:42. > :57:45.said that you would not havd a minimum wage. This is supplx and
:57:46. > :57:52.demand. If we are not importing hundreds of thousands of low`wage
:57:53. > :57:56.migrants send British wages will not be suppressed. I worked for ?2 per
:57:57. > :58:00.hour before there was a nathonal minimum wage. You would still have
:58:01. > :58:06.people on the sort of wages if there was not a national minimum weight.
:58:07. > :58:13.What are you going to do about that? You are not taking part in the
:58:14. > :58:17.guarantee programme. It is ` two`way street. We have the right to live
:58:18. > :58:23.and work anywhere in the European Union. There are over 2 million
:58:24. > :58:32.Brits living elsewhere in the EU. 1 million of them are retired. They
:58:33. > :58:36.would still have a British pension. One in seven British businesses in
:58:37. > :58:42.this country has been startdd by immigrants. They are very motivated.
:58:43. > :58:46.I will have to stop this discussion at this point.
:58:47. > :58:53.Let's take another pause and hear from the rest of the parties
:58:54. > :58:55.standing on Thursday. We wish to have a referendul on
:58:56. > :59:00.English independence, also ` referendum on coming out of the
:59:01. > :59:08.European Union. We are also very concerned about the rise of extreme
:59:09. > :59:11.Islam and we say no to Sharha law. We are also concerned about mass
:59:12. > :59:24.immigration, so it is English jobs for English workers.
:59:25. > :59:28.The free movement of people to be maintained within the Union. Voting
:59:29. > :59:33.for the Peace Party is voting for continuing our peaceful coexistence
:59:34. > :59:36.in Europe. The Peace Party would build on that success story by
:59:37. > :59:51.scaling down the military, first of all among the smaller countries and
:59:52. > :59:54.then later with all countrids. What we have to do is to move these
:59:55. > :00:01.persons away from this country to make sure that we cut the spending.
:00:02. > :00:08.The people who are going to get a visa to come to this countrx need to
:00:09. > :00:20.be checked very seriously. H want the same system like Australia.
:00:21. > :00:27.The EU has taken our soverehgnty and reduces us to second`class citizens.
:00:28. > :00:32.It is time we got out and took back our independence. There is no doubt
:00:33. > :00:35.that the EU is a black hole taking tax payers' money. The EU ilposes
:00:36. > :00:39.rules and regulations on Brhtish people, but a compromise of 28
:00:40. > :00:49.completely different nations. So it is clear one size fits none.
:00:50. > :00:55.You cannot see there is no choice. As you hover over the ballot paper,
:00:56. > :01:05.something to remember. Thred words. Julie Girling. Fundamental change in
:01:06. > :01:16.Europe. Vote for change. Jobs, security, environment. Fairness
:01:17. > :01:23.jobs and growth. People, thd environment, centre. YouTubd more
:01:24. > :01:26.than the three worst but we will let you have it. That's the Sunday
:01:27. > :01:28.Politics in the South, thanks to all my guests today. And
:01:29. > :01:40.thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.
:01:41. > :01:46.Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls
:01:47. > :01:51.do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune
:01:52. > :01:57.on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take
:01:58. > :02:01.a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European
:02:02. > :02:06.Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By
:02:07. > :02:11.April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel
:02:12. > :02:16.Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both
:02:17. > :02:29.cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.
:02:30. > :02:36.Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most
:02:37. > :02:43.unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job We
:02:44. > :02:47.are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.
:02:48. > :02:51.Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the
:02:52. > :02:54.European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is
:02:55. > :03:00.going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of
:03:01. > :03:05.the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more
:03:06. > :03:10.than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are
:03:11. > :03:14.doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,
:03:15. > :03:21.certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them
:03:22. > :03:29.democratically, demographically with the older age profile, who are
:03:30. > :03:35.going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come
:03:36. > :03:38.the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of
:03:39. > :03:43.your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of
:03:44. > :03:48.pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 009,
:03:49. > :04:03.and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on
:04:04. > :04:11.voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now
:04:12. > :04:18.a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?
:04:19. > :04:23.It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to
:04:24. > :04:26.happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is
:04:27. > :04:30.becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because
:04:31. > :04:37.distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it
:04:38. > :04:42.is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to
:04:43. > :04:48.try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We
:04:49. > :04:51.know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the
:04:52. > :04:55.Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But
:04:56. > :05:00.actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different
:05:01. > :05:04.sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single
:05:05. > :05:08.establishment party should be worried, because the people voting
:05:09. > :05:13.for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.
:05:14. > :05:19.They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of
:05:20. > :05:22.them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class
:05:23. > :05:28.Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the
:05:29. > :05:32.establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who
:05:33. > :05:38.are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,
:05:39. > :05:42.where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are
:05:43. > :05:48.representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections
:05:49. > :05:56.where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote
:05:57. > :06:00.would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any
:06:01. > :06:04.European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much
:06:05. > :06:07.attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that
:06:08. > :06:12.they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic
:06:13. > :06:17.of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would
:06:18. > :06:21.otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on
:06:22. > :06:27.the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not
:06:28. > :06:35.entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are
:06:36. > :06:38.completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to
:06:39. > :06:43.think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage
:06:44. > :06:48.a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people
:06:49. > :06:54.don't care. Instinctively, Nick you would think, if you are a UKIP
:06:55. > :06:57.photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more
:06:58. > :07:02.motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.
:07:03. > :07:09.Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as
:07:10. > :07:14.Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed
:07:15. > :07:17.with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do
:07:18. > :07:20.it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we
:07:21. > :07:26.want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left
:07:27. > :07:30.the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these
:07:31. > :07:36.elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how
:07:37. > :07:42.many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is
:07:43. > :07:46.saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If
:07:47. > :07:50.that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street
:07:51. > :07:53.are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP
:07:54. > :08:00.but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of
:08:01. > :08:04.polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which
:08:05. > :08:08.may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the
:08:09. > :08:14.answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask
:08:15. > :08:19.people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking
:08:20. > :08:22.that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general
:08:23. > :08:27.election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think
:08:28. > :08:31.the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term
:08:32. > :08:36.parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros
:08:37. > :08:41.will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year or
:08:42. > :08:47.indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the
:08:48. > :08:51.parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could
:08:52. > :08:56.be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a
:08:57. > :09:11.couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can
:09:12. > :09:14.see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP
:09:15. > :09:20.for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's
:09:21. > :09:26.policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr
:09:27. > :09:30.Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there
:09:31. > :09:37.will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot
:09:38. > :09:44.yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is
:09:45. > :09:48.plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the
:09:49. > :09:54.Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a
:09:55. > :10:00.Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for
:10:01. > :10:08.each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg
:10:09. > :10:11.loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially
:10:12. > :10:17.to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.
:10:18. > :10:20.I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two
:10:21. > :10:25.prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the
:10:26. > :10:31.leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick
:10:32. > :10:33.Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive
:10:34. > :10:38.proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.
:10:39. > :10:44.Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble
:10:45. > :10:48.for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the
:10:49. > :10:53.photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden
:10:54. > :10:58.with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to
:10:59. > :11:03.appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear
:11:04. > :11:07.rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know
:11:08. > :11:12.what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,
:11:13. > :11:16.all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of
:11:17. > :11:20.the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are
:11:21. > :11:23.immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really
:11:24. > :11:28.talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you
:11:29. > :11:32.say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this
:11:33. > :11:37.calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages
:11:38. > :11:44.and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The
:11:45. > :11:46.calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt
:11:47. > :11:51.Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack
:11:52. > :11:57.Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on
:11:58. > :12:01.that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,
:12:02. > :12:05.which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash so
:12:06. > :12:10.everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed
:12:11. > :12:14.Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is
:12:15. > :12:19.difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the
:12:20. > :12:24.Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are
:12:25. > :12:27.much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in
:12:28. > :12:34.the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do
:12:35. > :12:40.matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in
:12:41. > :12:44.the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on
:12:45. > :12:47.the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of
:12:48. > :12:54.confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for
:12:55. > :13:02.years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls
:13:03. > :13:07.could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the
:13:08. > :13:11.election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for
:13:12. > :13:15.that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday
:13:16. > :13:19.There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC
:13:20. > :13:23.Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the
:13:24. > :13:27.European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow
:13:28. > :13:31.lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for
:13:32. > :13:33.The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday
:13:34. > :14:44.Politics. A new era blooms
:14:45. > :14:55.at the RHS Chelsea Flower Show with a fresh crop of exciting
:14:56. > :14:59.young designers.