:00:39. > :00:44.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:45. > :00:51.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:52. > :00:54.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:55. > :00:59.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:00. > :01:04.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:05. > :01:08.UKIP Fox is in the Westminster henhouse.
:01:09. > :01:12.UKIP Fox is in the Westminster In the South: The votes have been
:01:13. > :01:14.counted for the local elections ` who were the winners and losers in
:01:15. > :01:16.our region? And what might it mean for the
:01:17. > :01:20.European results this hall spread, the Liberal Democrats
:01:21. > :01:29.disappeared, UKIP failed to show. More analysis in just over half an
:01:30. > :01:34.hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics
:01:35. > :01:42.henhouse, our own boot should -- bunch of headless chickens. Nick
:01:43. > :01:46.Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The Liberal Democrats lost over 300
:01:47. > :01:49.councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the
:01:50. > :01:53.local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the
:01:54. > :01:55.country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar
:01:56. > :02:01.comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but
:02:02. > :02:05.growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go.
:02:06. > :02:10.This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.
:02:11. > :02:18.People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils
:02:19. > :02:21.and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been
:02:22. > :02:31.trustworthy in leadership. Do you trust him? He has lacked bone on
:02:32. > :02:34.significant issues that are the core values of our party.
:02:35. > :02:39.This is how the party president responded.
:02:40. > :02:46.At this time, it would be foolish for us as a party to turn in on
:02:47. > :02:50.ourselves. What has separated us from the Conservatives is, while
:02:51. > :02:54.they have been like cats in a sack, we have stood united, and that is
:02:55. > :02:59.what we will continue to do. The major reason why is because we
:03:00. > :03:09.consented to the coalition, unlike the Conservatives. We had a vote,
:03:10. > :03:15.and a full conference. Is there a growing question over
:03:16. > :03:22.Nick Clegg's leadership? Different people have different views. My own
:03:23. > :03:26.view is I need to consult my own activists and members before coming
:03:27. > :03:30.to a conclusion. I am looking at holding a meeting for us to discuss
:03:31. > :03:35.the issue. I have been told by some people they do not think a meeting
:03:36. > :03:39.is required, they think he should stay, and other people have decided
:03:40. > :03:44.he should go. As a responsible Democrat, I should consult the
:03:45. > :03:49.members here before coming to my conclusions. What is your view at
:03:50. > :03:55.the moment? I have got to listen to my members. But you must have some
:03:56. > :04:01.kind of you. Because I have an open mind, I do not think he must stay, I
:04:02. > :04:08.am willing to say I have not made my mind up. From a news point of view,
:04:09. > :04:14.that is my official position. I can assure you there is not much news in
:04:15. > :04:20.that! I said earlier I am not going to say he must go must stay, I am
:04:21. > :04:23.consulting my members. But you must have some kind of view of your own
:04:24. > :04:28.before you have listened to your members. There are people who are
:04:29. > :04:32.wrongfully sanctioned and end up using food banks, I am upset about
:04:33. > :04:38.that, because we should not allow... I do not mind having a
:04:39. > :04:41.sanctioning system, that I get constituents who are put in this
:04:42. > :04:49.position, we should not accept that. I rebel on the issue of a referendum
:04:50. > :04:52.on membership of the EU. I am also concerned about the way the rules
:04:53. > :04:57.have been changed in terms of how parents are treated in their ability
:04:58. > :05:03.to take children to funerals out of school time. There are questions
:05:04. > :05:09.about the leader's responsible T for those policies. Nick Clegg has made
:05:10. > :05:14.it clear he is a staunch pro-European, he wants the Liberal
:05:15. > :05:18.Democrats to be in, he does not want a referendum, if you lose a chunk of
:05:19. > :05:22.your MEPs tonight, what does that say about how in June you are with
:05:23. > :05:28.written public opinion? There are issues with how you publish your
:05:29. > :05:33.policies. I do not agree 100% with what the government is doing or with
:05:34. > :05:37.what Nick Clegg says. I do think we should stay within the EU, because
:05:38. > :05:43.the alternative means we have less control over our borders. There is a
:05:44. > :05:50.presentational issue, because what UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse
:05:51. > :05:54.in terms of control of borders, which is their main reason for
:05:55. > :06:00.wanting to leave, which is strange. There are debate issues, but I have
:06:01. > :06:03.got personal concerns, I do worry about the impact on my constituents
:06:04. > :06:10.when they face wrongful sanctions. You have said that. A fellow Liberal
:06:11. > :06:14.Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg to a general at the Somme, causing
:06:15. > :06:20.carnage amongst the troops. I am more interested in the policy
:06:21. > :06:24.issues, are we doing the right things? I do think the coalition was
:06:25. > :06:29.essential, we had to rescue the country from financial problems. My
:06:30. > :06:34.own view on the issue of student finance, we did the right thing, in
:06:35. > :06:39.accordance with the pledge, which was to get a better system, more
:06:40. > :06:44.students are going to university, and more from disadvantaged
:06:45. > :06:48.backgrounds. But there are issues. But Nick Clegg survive as leader
:06:49. > :06:53.through till the next election? It depends what odds you will give me!
:06:54. > :06:58.If you are not going to give me is, I am not going to get! If you listen
:06:59. > :07:04.to John hemming, he has got nothing to worry about. He does have
:07:05. > :07:13.something to worry about, they lost 300 seats, on the uniform swing, you
:07:14. > :07:17.would see people like Vince cable and Simon Hughes lose their seats.
:07:18. > :07:21.But nobody wants to be the one to we'll be nice, they would rather
:07:22. > :07:26.wait until after the next election, and then rebuild the party. Yes,
:07:27. > :07:33.there is no chance of him walking away. Somebody like Tim Farron or
:07:34. > :07:37.Vince Cable, whoever the successor is, though have to close the dagger
:07:38. > :07:42.ten months before an election, do they want that spectacle? If I were
:07:43. > :07:45.Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is reasonably obvious that the
:07:46. > :07:51.left-wing voters who defect had towards the Labour Party in 2010
:07:52. > :07:55.will not return while he is leader. And anything he was going to achieve
:07:56. > :08:01.historically, the already has done. Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed
:08:02. > :08:06.Miliband or David Cameron, he has transformed the identity of the
:08:07. > :08:10.party, they are in government. Had it not been for him, they would have
:08:11. > :08:16.continued to be the main protest party, rather than a party of
:08:17. > :08:20.government. So he has got to take it all the way through until the
:08:21. > :08:26.election. If he left now, he would look like he was a tenant in the
:08:27. > :08:29.conservative house. What we are seeing is an operation to
:08:30. > :08:35.destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a Liberal Democrat one, so it is
:08:36. > :08:38.chaotic. There are people who have never really been reconciled to the
:08:39. > :08:47.coalition and to Nick Clegg, they are pushing for this. What is Nick
:08:48. > :08:51.Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron? -- what is Vince Cable going to do?
:08:52. > :08:59.Vince Cable is in China, on a business trip. It is like John
:09:00. > :09:04.Major's toothache in 1990. What is Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick
:09:05. > :09:09.Clegg, because he knows that his best chances of being leader are as
:09:10. > :09:15.the Westland candidate, the person who picks up the mess in a year.
:09:16. > :09:21.Vince Cable's only opportunity is on this side of the election. But you
:09:22. > :09:27.say they are not a party of government, but what looks more
:09:28. > :09:33.likely is overall the -- is no overall control. You might find a
:09:34. > :09:37.common mission looking appealing. They could still hold the balance of
:09:38. > :09:44.power. A lot of people in the Labour Party might say, let's just have a
:09:45. > :09:48.minority government. 30 odds and sods who will not turn up to vote.
:09:49. > :09:54.If they want to be up until 3am every morning, be like that! When
:09:55. > :10:03.you were in short trousers, it was like that every night, it was great
:10:04. > :10:06.fun! The Liberal Democrats will not provide confidence to a minority
:10:07. > :10:11.government, they will pull the plug and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg
:10:12. > :10:20.lead the Liberal Democrats into the next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am
:10:21. > :10:24.sorry, Nick Clegg, you are finished! We will speak to Paddy
:10:25. > :10:28.Ashdown in the second part of the show to speak about the Liberal
:10:29. > :10:32.Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could not deliver the promised earthquake,
:10:33. > :10:36.but it produced enough shock waves to discombobulated the established
:10:37. > :10:39.parties. They are struggling to work out how to deal with them. We
:10:40. > :10:53.watched it all unfold. Behind the scenes of any election
:10:54. > :10:57.night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and
:10:58. > :11:01.logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed
:11:02. > :11:07.to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and
:11:08. > :11:11.take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,
:11:12. > :11:17.kept and primed for the results. What this does not show due is the
:11:18. > :11:22.exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are
:11:23. > :11:24.doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the
:11:25. > :11:28.electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into
:11:29. > :11:33.intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which
:11:34. > :11:38.ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,
:11:39. > :11:44.welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become
:11:45. > :11:49.for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we
:11:50. > :11:54.will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party
:11:55. > :11:59.is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even
:12:00. > :12:03.hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses
:12:04. > :12:07.to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to
:12:08. > :12:09.questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of
:12:10. > :12:40.Commons, and voters became Tories overnight.
:12:41. > :12:46.That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to
:12:47. > :14:07.do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.
:14:08. > :14:10.do something that welcomes them on government, they do not have any
:14:11. > :14:15.MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased
:14:16. > :14:17.to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do
:14:18. > :14:39.you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and
:14:40. > :14:46.Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?
:14:47. > :14:49.No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon,
:14:50. > :14:59.Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne
:15:00. > :15:04.Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that
:15:05. > :15:14.in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will
:15:15. > :15:17.be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis
:15:18. > :15:24.of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,
:15:25. > :15:28.only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon
:15:29. > :15:35.Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is
:15:36. > :15:43.one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key
:15:44. > :15:49.marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but
:15:50. > :15:54.we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you
:15:55. > :15:59.were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.
:16:00. > :16:04.That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the
:16:05. > :16:09.Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick
:16:10. > :16:13.O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it wasn't an
:16:14. > :16:17.earthquake. It is definitely true that Labour did well in London but
:16:18. > :16:21.that is a double-edged sword because you have an increasing disconnect
:16:22. > :16:28.between the metropolis and the rest of the country. Our vote share was
:16:29. > :16:32.somewhat depressed not just because London is one of our weakest part of
:16:33. > :16:38.the country but because most of the warts in London were 3-member wards
:16:39. > :16:42.and we were typically only putting up one candidate. Even when they
:16:43. > :16:48.fared well, it still tracked down the projected national share. I
:16:49. > :16:54.think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the
:16:55. > :17:08.target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said
:17:09. > :17:15.that basically smart folk don't vote for UKIP. I think that is a tiny
:17:16. > :17:18.fragment of what she said. She said London is its own entity and is
:17:19. > :17:22.increasingly different from the rest of the country. One of the things
:17:23. > :17:28.that is different from London as opposed to Rotherham is that we have
:17:29. > :17:35.very big parties. I have a few thousand people in mind, Rotherham
:17:36. > :17:40.has a few hundred. People don't go and knock on doors and talk to
:17:41. > :17:45.people, in London we have always had to do that. London is full of young
:17:46. > :17:49.voters, full of ethnically diverse voters, that is why you are not
:17:50. > :17:55.doing well, you don't appeal to live there. I think London in general has
:17:56. > :18:00.a very different attitude to mass uncontrolled immigration. Londoners
:18:01. > :18:10.know that if an immigrant moves in next door to you, to use Nigel
:18:11. > :18:16.Farage's phrase, the world doesn't end tomorrow. People in the big
:18:17. > :18:22.cities know that, that is the point. What Diane Abbott is doing is try to
:18:23. > :18:28.convince London of its moral superiority so I am delighted... It
:18:29. > :18:34.is a simple fact that immigrants do not end the world if they move in
:18:35. > :18:38.next door. The economic recovery is getting more robust by the month,
:18:39. > :18:44.you have a seriously to ship problem according to many people on your own
:18:45. > :18:53.site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote is as good as it gets. Those who go
:18:54. > :19:00.round bitching about Ed Miliband have been doing that before the
:19:01. > :19:10.result. We have all polled very well. Ed Miliband does not polled
:19:11. > :19:15.very well. He has actually fashioned some really effective policies.
:19:16. > :19:19.Unemployment is tumbling, inflation is falling, growth is strengthening,
:19:20. > :19:25.and you have a leader who claims there is a cost of living crisis and
:19:26. > :19:33.he doesn't have a clue about his own cost of living. I think that was
:19:34. > :19:42.poor staff work. That he doesn't know what goes in his own shopping
:19:43. > :19:49.basket? I think his own staff could have prepared him for that. My point
:19:50. > :19:56.is that the numbers are looking better, we know that, but people
:19:57. > :20:04.don't feel better off. Then why are all consumer index polls better?
:20:05. > :20:07.They are feeling confident. They may be saying that, but people are
:20:08. > :20:13.worried about their future, their children's future. That is not what
:20:14. > :20:18.you buy today or tomorrow. If you ask people about their future and
:20:19. > :20:22.their children's future and prospects, they feel frightened.
:20:23. > :20:29.What will be a good result for you in the general election? We need to
:20:30. > :20:33.see Nigel Farage elected as an MP and he mustn't go there on his own.
:20:34. > :20:40.How many people do you think will be with him? Who knows, but we will
:20:41. > :20:43.have 20 to 30 target seat and if you put together the clusters we got in
:20:44. > :20:48.last year's County elections with the one we got this year, you can
:20:49. > :20:52.have a good guess at where they are. A number of people who voted
:20:53. > :20:58.for you and Thursday say they are going to back to the three main
:20:59. > :21:06.parties in general election. It would be foolish of me to say that
:21:07. > :21:14.they are going to stay. Some have said they have just lent their votes
:21:15. > :21:22.but voters hate being taken for granted. It is up to us to broaden
:21:23. > :21:28.our agenda, and build on our strengths, work on our weaknesses.
:21:29. > :21:33.Ed Miliband may have to do a deal with him. We have been here before,
:21:34. > :21:39.but the UKIP bubble is going to burst and that may happen around the
:21:40. > :21:46.time of Newark. Are you going to win Newark now? We are going to give it
:21:47. > :21:54.a really good crack. We love being the underdog, we don't see it as
:21:55. > :22:00.being the big goal -- the be all and end all. If you're going to get a
:22:01. > :22:09.big bounce off the elections, not to go and win your shows people who
:22:10. > :22:13.govern in Parliament, they don't vote for you. It is Labour who have
:22:14. > :22:17.given up the campaign already so we need a really big swing in our
:22:18. > :22:27.favour and we will give it a great crack. The bubble will burst at the
:22:28. > :22:36.Newark by-election, trust me. Have you been to Newark? Newark will see
:22:37. > :22:42.from local people... Where is it? It is outside the M25, I can tell you
:22:43. > :22:47.that. My point is that we are set for victory in 2015. I want to run
:22:48. > :22:53.this clip and get your take on it, an interview that Nigel Farage did
:22:54. > :22:57.with LBC. What they do is they have an auditor to make sure they spend
:22:58. > :23:05.their money in accordance with their rules. You say that is if there is
:23:06. > :23:13.something wrong with it. Hang on, hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is
:23:14. > :23:19.this a friend in the media or a member of the political class? Do
:23:20. > :23:27.you regret doing that now? What were you doing? No, I was trying to get
:23:28. > :23:33.Nigel Farage to a more important interview with Sunday Times that had
:23:34. > :23:42.painstakingly organised. He was on there? I have told the LBC people
:23:43. > :23:48.next door that he was running over. So you interrupted a live interview
:23:49. > :23:52.and you don't regret that? No, because just between us I wasn't a
:23:53. > :23:57.massive enthusiast for that interview taking place at all. I
:23:58. > :24:09.know what James O'Brien is like and I knew it wouldn't be particularly
:24:10. > :24:17.edifying. But your boss wasn't happy with the intervention. Sometimes the
:24:18. > :24:22.boss gets shirty. We all upset our boss every now and again, but anyway
:24:23. > :24:26.you could be an MEP by this time tomorrow and you won't have to do
:24:27. > :24:31.this job any more. You can then just count your salary and your expenses.
:24:32. > :24:36.I will make the contribution my party leader asked me to, to restore
:24:37. > :24:40.Britain to being a self-governing country. Are you going to stay in
:24:41. > :24:45.the job or not? I would not be able to do the job in the same way but I
:24:46. > :24:54.would maybe have some kind of overview. We will leave it there.
:24:55. > :24:59.Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman, produced a mammoth
:25:00. > :25:03.opinion poll of more than 26,000 voters in 26 marginal
:25:04. > :25:07.constituencies, crucial seat that will decide the outcome of the
:25:08. > :25:12.general election next year. In 26 constituencies people were asked
:25:13. > :25:26.which party's candidate they would support, and Labour took a healthy
:25:27. > :25:33.12 point lead, implying a swing of 6.5% from Conservatives to Labour
:25:34. > :25:38.from the last general election. That implies Labour would topple 83 Tory
:25:39. > :25:50.MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in second place in four seats, and
:25:51. > :25:55.three of them are Labour seats. Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of
:25:56. > :25:59.those who say they would vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last
:26:00. > :26:04.election. As many as have switched from Labour and the Lib Dems
:26:05. > :26:09.combined. The communities Secretary Eric
:26:10. > :26:14.Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft Paul that gives Labour a massive 12
:26:15. > :26:18.point lead in the crucial marginal constituencies, you would lose 83
:26:19. > :26:23.MPs if this was repeated in an election. It doesn't get worse than
:26:24. > :26:31.that, does it? Yesterday I went through that Paul in great detail,
:26:32. > :26:37.and what it shows is that in a number of key seats we are ahead,
:26:38. > :26:42.and somewhere behind, and I think is Michael rightly shows... You are
:26:43. > :26:46.behind in most of them. This is a snapshot and we have a year in which
:26:47. > :26:50.the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say
:26:51. > :26:54.to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just
:26:55. > :27:04.around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and
:27:05. > :27:07.we need to redouble our efforts. The Tory brand is dying in major parts
:27:08. > :27:11.of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,
:27:12. > :27:21.huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true
:27:22. > :27:26.with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In
:27:27. > :27:32.terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.
:27:33. > :27:38.After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has
:27:39. > :27:43.ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city
:27:44. > :27:49.of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have
:27:50. > :27:54.more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more
:27:55. > :27:59.councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who
:28:00. > :28:04.say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at
:28:05. > :28:10.the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so
:28:11. > :28:14.disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we
:28:15. > :28:18.hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal
:28:19. > :28:24.Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we
:28:25. > :28:29.concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power
:28:30. > :28:34.and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum
:28:35. > :28:38.of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term
:28:39. > :28:43.economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.
:28:44. > :28:46.On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a
:28:47. > :28:56.single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it
:28:57. > :29:03.is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us
:29:04. > :29:08.they didn't, which is important... I am asking what possible Labour seat
:29:09. > :29:12.you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections
:29:13. > :29:16.are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger
:29:17. > :29:22.turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate
:29:23. > :29:25.to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the
:29:26. > :29:30.success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in
:29:31. > :29:36.their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel
:29:37. > :29:40.that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are
:29:41. > :29:44.defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like
:29:45. > :29:55.mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.
:29:56. > :29:59.We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give
:30:00. > :30:07.you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You
:30:08. > :30:13.promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it
:30:14. > :30:18.rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend
:30:19. > :30:25.to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I
:30:26. > :30:29.have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their
:30:30. > :30:35.national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have
:30:36. > :30:41.objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You
:30:42. > :30:49.made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People
:30:50. > :30:53.defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do
:30:54. > :30:57.not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your
:30:58. > :31:04.immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures
:31:05. > :31:10.that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,
:31:11. > :31:18.it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do
:31:19. > :31:22.you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the
:31:23. > :31:28.election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not
:31:29. > :31:42.know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and
:31:43. > :31:47.still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted
:31:48. > :31:54.for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about
:31:55. > :31:59.the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the
:32:00. > :32:04.political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address
:32:05. > :33:37.them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery.
:33:38. > :33:43.them. David Cameron has got a better not win in 2015. We need to connect
:33:44. > :33:48.better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they
:33:49. > :33:52.have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national
:33:53. > :33:58.government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are
:33:59. > :34:02.voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want
:34:03. > :34:09.to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to
:34:10. > :34:15.see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your
:34:16. > :34:20.party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,
:34:21. > :34:28.like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015
:34:29. > :34:34.to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%
:34:35. > :34:42.behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a
:34:43. > :34:49.year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly
:34:50. > :34:54.deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.
:34:55. > :35:00.We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am
:35:01. > :35:04.a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be
:35:05. > :35:10.helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good
:35:11. > :35:13.friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best
:35:14. > :35:21.things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,
:35:22. > :35:27.you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a
:35:28. > :35:34.pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a
:35:35. > :35:38.market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should
:35:39. > :35:50.not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no
:35:51. > :35:55.pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say
:35:56. > :36:00.goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
:36:01. > :36:04.Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election
:36:05. > :36:16.coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First, Liberal Democrat election
:36:17. > :36:20.Welcome to Sunday Politics South. My name's Peter Henley. On today's
:36:21. > :36:23.show, after all the campaigning and the voting and the counting and the
:36:24. > :36:27.nail`biting, just what did it all add up to? Who were the winners and
:36:28. > :36:31.the losers in the South? That's what we'll be hoping to answer this
:36:32. > :36:33.morning with the help of my guests, who as party members and even as
:36:34. > :36:38.individuals had rather varied fortunes on Thursday night and
:36:39. > :36:41.Friday. Kelsey Learney is the leader of the Liberal Democrat group on
:36:42. > :36:43.Winchester City Council, Royston Smith is the leader of the
:36:44. > :36:46.Conservative group on Southampton City Council, and Peter Lamb is the
:36:47. > :36:49.leader of the Labour Group on Crawley Borough Council. And,
:36:50. > :36:58.indeed, since Friday the presumed leader of the council, is that
:36:59. > :37:06.right? Yes. Looking forward to it? Immensely so. Did you think you
:37:07. > :37:14.would do it, or was it nail`biting? We don't count our chickens until
:37:15. > :37:17.they are hatched! Back to chickens! The fox was not in the hen house in
:37:18. > :37:23.Crawley. We showed the residents the change that we need. John Mann was
:37:24. > :37:27.saying that tactics and strategy don't seem to have worked. Perhaps
:37:28. > :37:37.they have in Crawley? How important is the South? Is the South of
:37:38. > :37:43.England where it is mostly conservative? The south is the
:37:44. > :37:50.remaining stronghold excluding London and we are making inroads. We
:37:51. > :37:54.are on our way to a significant majority, we saw similar games in
:37:55. > :37:59.Hastings. When you look at the results, it was a very good night
:38:00. > :38:03.for Labour will stop if it's just about targeting in one place, making
:38:04. > :38:10.sure Labour fights a limited number of seats? We are a one nation party,
:38:11. > :38:15.but certainly in Crawley who went out and spoke to the voters. Royston
:38:16. > :38:20.Smith, it looks like the Labour targeting, when you look at Lord
:38:21. > :38:24.Ashcroft's poll, that is where it seems to be pushing them ahead of
:38:25. > :38:27.the general result, black conservatives seem to be standing up
:38:28. > :38:33.quite well in the rest of the country? I disagree with that. The
:38:34. > :38:37.polls were people put their vote and if you look at what happened in
:38:38. > :38:41.Southampton on Thursday, Southampton is the one that particularly
:38:42. > :38:47.interests me personally... As the candidate. We polled more than
:38:48. > :38:54.Labour did, it was marginal, but we polled more. Is Lord Ashcroft Ron?
:38:55. > :39:00.No, I am saying that the real polls are the ones where people vote. We
:39:01. > :39:04.had a tweet from the new Forest, have local councillors lost their
:39:05. > :39:08.jobs due to national issues? Is that fair? That has always been the case,
:39:09. > :39:12.it happens to write local government, when you have the
:39:13. > :39:15.government of Parliament then the local councillors tend to suffer. It
:39:16. > :39:18.happened in Southampton, it happened in Southampton, Uchaf and in 20 top,
:39:19. > :39:24.but we started making gains this year and outpolled Labour. Sometimes
:39:25. > :39:29.that is the case but it does not have to be. It is careful targeting
:39:30. > :39:35.and having the right conversations with people. And it is a local
:39:36. > :39:39.election, a different process. Kelsie Learney, the curse of Clegg,
:39:40. > :39:45.your party with a letter saying he has to go. On the doorsteps, do you
:39:46. > :39:48.mention Nick Clegg? Does his name, ? It does, especially when people
:39:49. > :39:53.focus on the national issues rather than local, but it does very much
:39:54. > :39:57.depend on what is on their mind at any point in time. If he and asset
:39:58. > :40:03.or a liability? I think he remains an asset. Obviously there are
:40:04. > :40:06.concerns about whether the message is coming across about our
:40:07. > :40:09.achievements in government and I think there is a perception that
:40:10. > :40:13.Nick is not doing a good enough job at selling those achievements,
:40:14. > :40:17.particularly around increasing tax threshold and directing more money
:40:18. > :40:23.to the pupil premium to poorer pupils in schools. The Tories are
:40:24. > :40:28.trying to take credit for what our popular Liberal Democrat policies,
:40:29. > :40:32.and I think Nick needs to do more to say, these are other policies, this
:40:33. > :40:41.is the difference we have made in government. A candidate in West
:40:42. > :40:45.Dorset, in a target seat, saying that to the majority of the country
:40:46. > :40:50.he is a hate figure, we to the public and Nick would go. On The
:40:51. > :40:55.Other Hand, Mark Oaten, former Winchester MP, saying he totally
:40:56. > :40:59.disagrees with the current candidate for Winchester. He says now is the
:41:00. > :41:05.time to give Nick Clegg our full support. Will the party to its upper
:41:06. > :41:09.part? Absolutely not, we are a party which tolerates a wide range of
:41:10. > :41:16.views. Jackie has strong opinions and is not afraid to speak them. But
:41:17. > :41:20.it is a mixed picture on the doorstep. A lot of people give me a
:41:21. > :41:24.lot of credit for having the bravery to go into coalition and I think he
:41:25. > :41:31.deserves that `` give Nick a lot of credit. Is there a danger that if
:41:32. > :41:34.Nick Clegg is attacked by his own party that it would be an end to the
:41:35. > :41:42.coalition? Of course there is, if Nick Clegg is the current uppity
:41:43. > :41:44.Prime Minister and there was a leadership challenge, then there
:41:45. > :41:48.would be a new deputy Prime Minister. With the time and internal
:41:49. > :41:58.election would take I don't think it would be that critical. We were. To
:41:59. > :42:04.disengage, but as campaigning forces about six months out `` we will
:42:05. > :42:08.start to disengage. It is about timing, is Ed Miliband really
:42:09. > :42:15.pushing ahead at the speed necessary to get there by May 2015? In 2010,
:42:16. > :42:20.we had a huge loss. We have made significant progress since,
:42:21. > :42:25.certainly since Ed became leader. It shows that the leopard `` that the
:42:26. > :42:30.efforts that Labour is putting into the marginals is making a
:42:31. > :42:34.difference. Voters on the doorstep are concerned about things that
:42:35. > :42:37.matter to them in their lives and the future of their family. What is
:42:38. > :42:42.the first thing you will do in Crawley? We will ensure the
:42:43. > :42:46.residents are well aware that they will not lose their house due to the
:42:47. > :42:54.bedroom tax. No evictions? No evictions. Bedroom tax, something
:42:55. > :42:57.which is causing problems, isn't it, for people who might be tended
:42:58. > :43:03.to support Labour rather than conservative? The spare room
:43:04. > :43:07.subsidy, as we call it, rather than the pejorative bedroom tax, is
:43:08. > :43:11.trying to make sure that people can get access to homes, there are
:43:12. > :43:15.people living in homes that are more accommodation than they require and
:43:16. > :43:19.people who cannot get onto a list, and it is important that we try to
:43:20. > :43:22.free up properties where we can so that families can get into account.
:43:23. > :43:30., and at the moment that is not happening. Is that message getting
:43:31. > :43:33.across in Crawley? A month ago, you have the leader of West Sussex
:43:34. > :43:37.County Council said, we know there are not enough homes for people to
:43:38. > :43:42.downsize to, but it will spur the market into action. It is a policy
:43:43. > :43:45.which is openly putting people 's future is at risk, putting their
:43:46. > :43:49.houses at risk, and we think it is wrong to say it is a market
:43:50. > :43:54.mechanism. Yes, there is not enough housing, so deal with that by
:43:55. > :43:58.building enough housing. This is the sort of thing that Nick Clegg will
:43:59. > :44:04.get behind. Do you support the spare room subsidy? I think it is
:44:05. > :44:07.important to remember that Labour introduced it for Private tenants
:44:08. > :44:11.quit along time ago. I think there have been errors made in the way it
:44:12. > :44:16.has been introduced, the speed with which it has been introduced. The
:44:17. > :44:19.aim is the right thing to do. In Winchester, we had success with
:44:20. > :44:25.house swaps, getting people to make those moves, but there are quite a
:44:26. > :44:29.lot of issues. I think one problem with it come a point that was
:44:30. > :44:33.missed, is that it is much harder for social tenants to make those
:44:34. > :44:39.moves compared to Private tenants. Isn't it clear, electorally, this is
:44:40. > :44:45.bringing votes to Labour. In practice, there are not the places
:44:46. > :44:49.for people to move on to? In Winchester, Labour saw a fall in
:44:50. > :44:53.their share of the vote, so it is obviously not one of the top issues
:44:54. > :44:58.on people 's minds. Winchester is a tight contest between Conservative
:44:59. > :45:02.and Liberal Democrat, UKIP got squeezed out as well, so it is a
:45:03. > :45:06.different picture that. It may be slightly different and different
:45:07. > :45:10.areas have different concerns for voters. But one of the big concerns
:45:11. > :45:14.in Winchester is affordable housing and how we provide homes for
:45:15. > :45:19.people. Over occupation of social housing is an issue. Come back to be
:45:20. > :45:23.thought that it is a local election, as a priest and was
:45:24. > :45:28.saying, it is not a general election. People will have different
:45:29. > :45:32.choices come the general election. People will decide who they want on
:45:33. > :45:35.a national level, point, but on the doorstep people are not happy with
:45:36. > :45:43.the way the country is going, they are not happy with the lack of
:45:44. > :45:49.progress, they want action on letting agencies, all these
:45:50. > :45:53.different areas. The public need to learn there is only one way to get
:45:54. > :46:01.those policies in place, and that is to vote Labour. Let's just pause for
:46:02. > :46:04.a second and look in detail at the seats that were being contested on
:46:05. > :46:07.Thursday were last fought over in the rather different circumstances
:46:08. > :46:10.of 2010, the same day as the general election. For most of the 21
:46:11. > :46:14.councils in our region, only a third of seats were up for grabs, although
:46:15. > :46:18.in a few it was half. So let's take a closer look at just who won what,
:46:19. > :46:20.where. Ian Paul has the details. Probably the biggest upset of
:46:21. > :46:23.Thursday night was in Portsmouth, where the Liberal Democrats have
:46:24. > :46:26.lost control of the council, although they are still the largest
:46:27. > :46:29.party. And bad news for the city's independent MP Mike Hancock, who
:46:30. > :46:32.lost his Fratton seat to UKIP, bringing to an end his 40 years on
:46:33. > :46:36.the council. UKIP now have six seats, and the council has slipped
:46:37. > :46:39.into no overall control. I am over the moon, absolutely over the moon.
:46:40. > :46:45.Is it what you expected here in Portsmouth? Erm... Expected more!
:46:46. > :46:49.You couldn't have got more than six? No, we have done really well. We
:46:50. > :46:52.have done really well, it's good. Labour had a rather disappointing
:46:53. > :46:57.experience overnight. They had hoped to win back control of Swindon, but,
:46:58. > :46:59.in the end, didn't. In fact, losing the seat to the Conservatives.
:47:00. > :47:02.Clearly, Ed Miliband being rather unsure of the identity of his
:47:03. > :47:09.group's leader during a radio interview wasn't the most successful
:47:10. > :47:12.election tactic. I've been coming here 14 years, and this is probably
:47:13. > :47:16.the best night we've ever had. We've racked up record wins in some of the
:47:17. > :47:19.most important wards. We've gained a seat from Labour, and in a seat that
:47:20. > :47:25.they threw everything and the kitchen sink at, we won by over 300
:47:26. > :47:28.votes. I'm just ecstatic. Basingstoke was another hoped`for
:47:29. > :47:32.Labour win that turned into disappointment. They captured three
:47:33. > :47:35.extra seats, but the Conservatives are still the largest party on a
:47:36. > :47:41.council that's still in no overall control. Better news in Southampton,
:47:42. > :47:45.where Labour held onto all their seats and control of the council. In
:47:46. > :47:51.Oxford, where they picked up another four councillors, and in Reading,
:47:52. > :47:54.where they added another five. We're now in the strongest position we've
:47:55. > :47:59.been in the borough council for many years. And we are in a position not
:48:00. > :48:02.only to seek to continue to defend local services, but we're also in an
:48:03. > :48:07.excellent position to challenge for both the Parliamentary seats in the
:48:08. > :48:10.general election next year. But probably the best was saved till
:48:11. > :48:13.last, when, on Friday, the party retook Crawley, a major target for
:48:14. > :48:19.them, and surely now back in contention for the general election.
:48:20. > :48:22.Eastleigh Lib Dems had been fearing a UKIP surge after the party's
:48:23. > :48:26.strong performance in the by`election. But, although they
:48:27. > :48:31.polled well, there were no gains, and in fact the Lib Dems were the
:48:32. > :48:35.ones to add a councillor. They now hold 40 of the 44 seats. This,
:48:36. > :48:42.despite leader K House facing a challenge from a J House one slot
:48:43. > :48:46.above him on the ballot paper. The UKIP bubble has been burst in
:48:47. > :48:49.Eastleigh. We knew it would happen, we weren't sure it would happen
:48:50. > :48:52.tonight, but it has, and that gives us a great platform to go forward
:48:53. > :48:56.for the general election next year. Winchester kept up its reputation
:48:57. > :49:01.for knife`edge election results. Remember Mark Oaten winning by two
:49:02. > :49:04.votes? The Conservatives and Lib Dems had been neck`and`neck going
:49:05. > :49:07.into the poll, and are still neck`and`neck coming out. But just
:49:08. > :49:12.40 voters putting their cross in a different box could have given the
:49:13. > :49:15.Tories control of the council. For the Conservatives, it was a story of
:49:16. > :49:20.many holds but no spectacular successes. Maybe not a bad result
:49:21. > :49:24.for a governing party at this stage of the game. More worrying for them
:49:25. > :49:28.is the rise of UKIP, and what that might bode when we all go to the
:49:29. > :49:33.polls again in less than a year's time.
:49:34. > :49:36.And we're joined now by the newly`elected UKIP councillor for
:49:37. > :49:44.the Fratton ward in Portsmouth, the woman who defeated Mike Hancock,
:49:45. > :49:51.Julie Swan. Good morning. It will be before your name every time people
:49:52. > :49:55.introduce you for a while! Yes! What do you put it down to? There was
:49:56. > :49:59.particular success for UKIP in Portsmouth. I think it is probably
:50:00. > :50:04.the fact that we fielded local candidates. People in Frater North
:50:05. > :50:10.have known me for a long time, so we were not strangers to them. What are
:50:11. > :50:14.you going to do now? You are saying you will not support the
:50:15. > :50:19.Conservatives to take control of the council in a situation of no overall
:50:20. > :50:23.control. Why not? We don't support any packs of that type, it is a
:50:24. > :50:26.party policy. That is not to say we would not agree on certain issues,
:50:27. > :50:34.that we would not sign a particular agreement. Donna Jones saying, I put
:50:35. > :50:37.a UKIP person in my cabinet with a limited number of seats but
:50:38. > :50:43.crucially the balance of power, that does not tempted to say, OK, we will
:50:44. > :50:47.support you in general, have any supply agreement to say we will vote
:50:48. > :50:51.with you where we agree with you? Know, we are in this to help the
:50:52. > :50:55.people of Portsmouth, not for power. We would only consider it if it was
:50:56. > :51:01.beneficial to the people of Portsmouth, not to say that we will
:51:02. > :51:06.sign this every time you... UKIP is not in it for power? I thought that
:51:07. > :51:11.was what politics was about. It might be for the other parties, but
:51:12. > :51:15.not for us. People vote for politicians to make a difference of
:51:16. > :52:06.the local council! You talk about cutting senior staff pay.
:52:07. > :52:07.was a European boat made a difference to you? We're asked, why
:52:08. > :53:06.do so many people lots of them for years, some of them
:53:07. > :53:11.used to be Conservatives. Rather a lot of them! Perhaps, but you should
:53:12. > :53:16.not go around calling people to burst the bubble. The message,
:53:17. > :53:19.surely, to the established parties is, the public does not like what
:53:20. > :53:24.they see from the established parties. There is an element of
:53:25. > :53:29.that, but here is the thing, you cannot have UKIP saying that
:53:30. > :53:33.volunteers should run local football clubs and then in the same sentence
:53:34. > :53:42.say, but the council has closed all of the pitches. You cannot have it
:53:43. > :53:44.both ways. When you have to make decisions that affect people 's
:53:45. > :53:49.lives, including how much you charge for the services, it is a different
:53:50. > :53:54.game, and that is the difference between UKIP and the currently
:53:55. > :53:57.established parties. You say it is a steep learning curve, but will you
:53:58. > :54:02.keep the integrity that you offered the public, which is why you are ``
:54:03. > :54:07.why they voted for you in the first place? Absolutely, we had a meeting
:54:08. > :54:15.on Tuesday, so I was reading of the last meetings minutes to catch up
:54:16. > :54:19.with where everyone else is at. Will you work hard on Portsmouth
:54:20. > :54:22.Council? That is a criticism of Nigel Barrett in Council, that they
:54:23. > :54:28.do not work `` that they do not turn up will stop no, I will work very
:54:29. > :54:34.hard. I had a conversation with a constituent yesterday just because I
:54:35. > :54:36.went into the shop to buy a paper. I imagine you have a lot of
:54:37. > :54:41.conversations with constituents every day. Thousands and thousands
:54:42. > :54:49.of people over the last five months, it is our main activity. What do you
:54:50. > :54:54.think about UKIP? I don't have much interest in UKIP, to be honest. I am
:54:55. > :54:59.interested in UKIP voters. People on the doorstep of said they will vote
:55:00. > :55:04.for them as a protest. This is the arrogance that people don't like,
:55:05. > :55:08.isn't it? No, we are listening to the residents themselves and time
:55:09. > :55:13.and time again they say, we feel we are being taken for monks. We need
:55:14. > :55:19.to have an honest dialogue about that, not just words, we have to go
:55:20. > :55:27.out and talk to people, find out why they are concerned. But it starts
:55:28. > :55:31.with honesty and openness. I think it is wrong to say that about 31% of
:55:32. > :55:38.the voters in Frater award. You cannot say we are all protest votes.
:55:39. > :55:42.They would be a handful. A lot of them are Labour voters as well and
:55:43. > :55:53.Lib Dem. Independent, shall be say, for Fratton. We took votes across
:55:54. > :55:56.the board, but mostly Lib Dem. UKIP. In Eastleigh, but in
:55:57. > :56:01.Portsmouth a real threat to Lib Dems. What does that tell us? There
:56:02. > :56:07.are always local issues that we find that every single election. It has
:56:08. > :56:10.been very different in Eastleigh, where supposedly UKIP made a massive
:56:11. > :56:15.breakthrough and yet they still don't hold a single council seat on
:56:16. > :56:21.Eastleigh council. Winchester, the UKIP vote was up slightly, a lot of
:56:22. > :56:27.that down to the European election on the same day. On the doorstep, I
:56:28. > :56:32.wasn't finding much support for UKIP, and in terms of the European
:56:33. > :56:34.factor, actually, I had far more people concerned about their jobs if
:56:35. > :56:41.we went out of Europe that those who were insisted we should do. How much
:56:42. > :56:50.difference to you think the European boat made? If Nigel Farage comes
:56:51. > :56:55.top, the politicians will have to have some concession towards. I
:56:56. > :56:58.think we should stay on the path that the party and by Bluestar set
:56:59. > :57:02.out, to get the economy right, doing the things we said we would do. If
:57:03. > :57:06.we allow ourselves to get dragged around because on a particular vote
:57:07. > :57:09.it looks like UKIP also what else is doing well, then we will never make
:57:10. > :57:16.the progress that we did today. In South Park, in my ward, which is not
:57:17. > :57:24.marginal but has been close in the past, it is not about me... It is,
:57:25. > :57:33.because you managed to survive. Most of Labour's both witty UKIP, so I
:57:34. > :57:37.was not disproportionately affected. What I do want to say, and this is
:57:38. > :57:43.important, we talk about the established parties, but we had
:57:44. > :57:47.hundreds of people telling us they were going to vote UKIP in protest
:57:48. > :57:51.and when asked what the protest was they could not articulate it, they
:57:52. > :57:54.would say, everything. Probably the best country in the world, people
:57:55. > :57:59.are protesting about everything. If that continues, then we have to
:58:00. > :58:08.recalibrate and see what we are giving wrong. It was the county
:58:09. > :58:12.elections last time, in Eastleigh they did not make the breakthrough,
:58:13. > :58:18.did well generically in Southampton but did not get a seat. At the
:58:19. > :58:24.moment, people are telling us, voters, they are important, we are
:58:25. > :58:30.there for years, and they are telling us they are protesting. Will
:58:31. > :58:34.this all evaporate for UKIP? No, our membership is increasing rapidly.
:58:35. > :58:37.People are eyeing into the idea of local councils for local people. The
:58:38. > :58:44.councils have distanced themselves now. It is a fascinating time in
:58:45. > :58:47.politics. Thank you all for coming in to talk about the implications.
:58:48. > :58:53.And of course the European elections still to come.
:58:54. > :58:54.Thanks to my guests Kelsie Learney, Julie Swan, Peter Lamb, and Royston
:58:55. > :58:57.Smith. Don't forget to watch the special
:58:58. > :59:01.European results programme this evening on BBC One from 11pm to find
:59:02. > :59:06.out who your MEPs are going to be for the next five years.
:59:07. > :59:12.deported. We should also review the benefits system to make it
:59:13. > :59:17.contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.
:59:18. > :59:25.Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,
:59:26. > :59:31.as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even
:59:32. > :59:38.worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,
:59:39. > :59:41.former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.
:59:42. > :59:49.Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change
:59:50. > :00:01.what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the
:00:02. > :00:05.poorest, they now have traction. We have been on many programmes of this
:00:06. > :00:11.sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are
:00:12. > :00:15.calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my
:00:16. > :00:20.political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we
:00:21. > :00:24.need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the
:00:25. > :00:31.summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive
:00:32. > :00:38.leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices
:00:39. > :00:48.are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question
:00:49. > :00:52.is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to
:00:53. > :00:59.take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party
:01:00. > :01:04.forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend
:01:05. > :01:08.Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It
:01:09. > :01:14.could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue
:01:15. > :01:22.the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in
:01:23. > :01:30.scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent
:01:31. > :01:33.to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like
:01:34. > :01:39.cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling
:01:40. > :01:45.for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens
:01:46. > :01:51.from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it
:01:52. > :01:56.seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including
:01:57. > :02:01.sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would
:02:02. > :02:07.like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been
:02:08. > :02:11.doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the
:02:12. > :02:15.polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you
:02:16. > :02:19.will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut
:02:20. > :02:24.through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking
:02:25. > :02:29.about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me
:02:30. > :02:36.take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in
:02:37. > :02:42.every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or
:02:43. > :02:49.two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of
:02:50. > :02:54.them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to
:02:55. > :02:58.change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election
:02:59. > :03:04.we not only re-established our position from a base of almost
:03:05. > :03:09.nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in
:03:10. > :03:15.1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and
:03:16. > :03:22.insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we
:03:23. > :03:26.should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of
:03:27. > :03:33.that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll
:03:34. > :03:39.ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum
:03:40. > :03:49.of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best
:03:50. > :03:52.part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple
:03:53. > :03:58.of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a
:03:59. > :04:05.long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into
:04:06. > :04:12.government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%
:04:13. > :04:19.support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding
:04:20. > :04:22.judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being
:04:23. > :04:27.attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and
:04:28. > :04:31.he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has
:04:32. > :04:37.done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are
:04:38. > :04:43.in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is
:04:44. > :04:48.one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context
:04:49. > :04:53.of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he
:04:54. > :04:59.can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local
:05:00. > :05:03.elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on
:05:04. > :05:08.track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for
:05:09. > :05:18.us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as
:05:19. > :05:23.bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general
:05:24. > :05:26.election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in
:05:27. > :05:31.government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell
:05:32. > :05:34.about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country
:05:35. > :05:39.out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the
:05:40. > :05:44.Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and
:05:45. > :05:47.fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the
:05:48. > :05:56.context of a general election will be far greater than you are
:05:57. > :06:03.suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,
:06:04. > :06:08.that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed
:06:09. > :06:13.Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long
:06:14. > :06:16.time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the
:06:17. > :06:20.same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a
:06:21. > :06:27.breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet
:06:28. > :06:30.wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the
:06:31. > :06:36.Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken
:06:37. > :06:43.seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken
:06:44. > :06:46.up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have
:06:47. > :06:54.taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around
:06:55. > :06:59.them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating
:07:00. > :07:07.people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the
:07:08. > :07:13.fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern
:07:14. > :07:16.Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did
:07:17. > :07:20.not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage
:07:21. > :07:27.regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those
:07:28. > :07:30.Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party
:07:31. > :07:35.will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the
:07:36. > :07:39.south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony
:07:40. > :07:45.Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they
:07:46. > :07:53.did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle
:07:54. > :07:59.-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%
:08:00. > :08:03.in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.
:08:04. > :08:09.There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did
:08:10. > :08:14.not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we
:08:15. > :08:19.should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he
:08:20. > :08:22.would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the
:08:23. > :08:28.results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty
:08:29. > :08:32.well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in
:08:33. > :08:40.the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes
:08:41. > :08:45.from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done
:08:46. > :08:50.well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on
:08:51. > :08:54.Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a
:08:55. > :08:59.disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the
:09:00. > :09:03.main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a
:09:04. > :09:10.majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break
:09:11. > :09:14.the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that
:09:15. > :09:23.they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116
:09:24. > :09:27.or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in
:09:28. > :09:35.the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating
:09:36. > :09:39.finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be
:09:40. > :09:46.putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is
:09:47. > :09:51.the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are
:09:52. > :09:57.nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a
:09:58. > :10:00.majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous
:10:01. > :10:07.increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,
:10:08. > :10:14.which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.
:10:15. > :10:21.David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you
:10:22. > :10:28.know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the
:10:29. > :10:35.bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.
:10:36. > :10:39.Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch
:10:40. > :12:36.into a budgeted last week, but he is not the
:12:37. > :12:41.do not pretend to be something you are not. The problem for Ed Miliband
:12:42. > :12:46.with that picture, he has some abnormal people working for him, but
:12:47. > :12:51.what he does not have is a broadcast person who can spot those pictures.
:12:52. > :12:57.George Osborne hired Theo Rogers from the BBC, she has
:12:58. > :13:01.transformed... She may have been guilty of the burger, but she has
:13:02. > :13:07.transformed his image on TV. That is what Ed Miliband needs. You are
:13:08. > :13:11.correct, it Ed Miliband was 15 points ahead in the polls, screwing
:13:12. > :13:16.up the eating of a bacon sandwich would be seen as an endearing trait.
:13:17. > :13:21.We might not have even noticed it. That is all this week, you can get
:13:22. > :13:27.those European election results with David Dimbleby on vote went to 14
:13:28. > :13:33.from 9pm on the BBC News Channel, and from 11pm on BBC One. No
:13:34. > :13:35.programme next week, but we are back in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is
:13:36. > :14:12.the Sunday Politics. This week, Britain has voted for its
:14:13. > :14:15.Members of the European Parliament. What will the result tell us about
:14:16. > :14:22.the political mood here in Britain of the results
:14:23. > :14:26.both here and across Europe.