:00:37. > :00:39.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,
:00:40. > :00:45.live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.
:00:46. > :00:47.There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected
:00:48. > :00:52.He joins us live from his constituency, where he has
:00:53. > :01:00.It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he
:01:01. > :01:02.arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.
:01:03. > :01:05.On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned
:01:06. > :01:14.RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq
:01:15. > :01:22.With UKIP riding high after yesterday's defection, just how
:01:23. > :01:25.worried are Conservatives in our region as they gather in Birmingham
:01:26. > :01:33.In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those
:01:34. > :01:38.priced out are choosing to move away.
:01:39. > :01:42.And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,
:01:43. > :01:45.who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.
:01:46. > :01:51.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:52. > :01:55.And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:56. > :01:58.And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.
:01:59. > :02:01.At the current rate of Tory resignations,
:02:02. > :02:04.Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote
:02:05. > :02:08.address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.
:02:09. > :02:12.It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP
:02:13. > :02:15.defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and
:02:16. > :02:22.Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.
:02:23. > :02:29.Here's what the Prime Minister had to say
:02:30. > :02:41.These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and
:02:42. > :02:45.rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you
:02:46. > :02:47.want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain
:02:48. > :02:52.that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a
:02:53. > :02:54.Conservative government after the next election.
:02:55. > :03:02.And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.
:03:03. > :03:09.Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative
:03:10. > :03:13.colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping
:03:14. > :03:17.faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You
:03:18. > :03:20.heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was
:03:21. > :03:25.dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have
:03:26. > :03:29.increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour
:03:30. > :03:33.managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under
:03:34. > :03:38.Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my
:03:39. > :03:41.words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut
:03:42. > :03:46.immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to
:03:47. > :03:49.the community, particularly over house-building. The government has
:03:50. > :03:54.broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my
:03:55. > :04:00.voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to
:04:01. > :04:04.UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency
:04:05. > :04:08.chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and
:04:09. > :04:13.you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office
:04:14. > :04:18.telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the
:04:19. > :04:39.Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..
:04:40. > :04:44.So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham
:04:45. > :04:51.to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did
:04:52. > :04:55.you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually
:04:56. > :04:58.do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you
:04:59. > :05:02.cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a
:05:03. > :05:06.decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by
:05:07. > :05:12.UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a
:05:13. > :05:21.lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.
:05:22. > :05:26.That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this
:05:27. > :05:33.country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,
:05:34. > :05:38.quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.
:05:39. > :05:44.So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting
:05:45. > :05:47.UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number
:05:48. > :05:51.of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are
:05:52. > :05:54.winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned
:05:55. > :05:57.with the political class in Westminster, that they have not
:05:58. > :06:02.voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is
:06:03. > :06:07.inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the
:06:08. > :06:12.last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of
:06:13. > :06:15.life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.
:06:16. > :06:22.That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of
:06:23. > :06:27.change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My
:06:28. > :06:30.ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2 10
:06:31. > :06:34.as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David
:06:35. > :06:39.Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick
:06:40. > :06:42.Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and
:06:43. > :06:46.we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to
:06:47. > :06:52.pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to
:06:53. > :06:59.give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up
:07:00. > :07:08.for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the
:07:09. > :07:11.party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this
:07:12. > :07:17.is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you
:07:18. > :07:21.winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are
:07:22. > :07:26.frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to
:07:27. > :07:30.save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,
:07:31. > :07:34.you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in
:07:35. > :07:45.Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at
:07:46. > :07:49.MPs who have moved party before almost none of them have given their
:07:50. > :07:53.voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking
:07:54. > :07:57.permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe
:07:58. > :08:01.many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a
:08:02. > :08:04.Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to
:08:05. > :08:11.decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our
:08:12. > :08:15.country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and
:08:16. > :08:23.have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and
:08:24. > :08:27.honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my
:08:28. > :08:32.constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is
:08:33. > :08:36.the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and
:08:37. > :08:43.do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas
:08:44. > :08:45.Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for
:08:46. > :08:52.disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,
:08:53. > :08:55.the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was
:08:56. > :09:00.extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years
:09:01. > :09:03.ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit
:09:04. > :09:07.speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things
:09:08. > :09:12.there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at
:09:13. > :09:15.Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few
:09:16. > :09:19.ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just
:09:20. > :09:24.to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who
:09:25. > :09:31.believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,
:09:32. > :09:38.who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which
:09:39. > :09:41.has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,
:09:42. > :09:48.which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -
:09:49. > :09:51.after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David
:09:52. > :09:57.Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would
:09:58. > :10:01.you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP
:10:02. > :10:08.policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with
:10:09. > :10:14.immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will
:10:15. > :10:19.look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to
:10:20. > :10:31.restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How
:10:32. > :10:37.serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,
:10:38. > :10:40.destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is
:10:41. > :10:44.beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen
:10:45. > :10:50.eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing
:10:51. > :10:55.like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.
:10:56. > :10:59.There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis
:11:00. > :11:02.writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the
:11:03. > :11:06.first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used
:11:07. > :11:12.to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic
:11:13. > :11:17.in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some
:11:18. > :11:20.of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.
:11:21. > :11:24.There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the
:11:25. > :11:27.media problem of the general election which they cannot win if
:11:28. > :11:30.UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in
:11:31. > :11:35.many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does
:11:36. > :11:39.it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would
:11:40. > :11:44.it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics
:11:45. > :11:50.to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the
:11:51. > :11:54.Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably
:11:55. > :12:00.lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising
:12:01. > :12:05.them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It
:12:06. > :12:11.is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I
:12:12. > :12:16.was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the
:12:17. > :12:20.TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.
:12:21. > :12:24.But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to
:12:25. > :12:29.step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what
:12:30. > :12:34.he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in
:12:35. > :12:38.the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that
:12:39. > :12:42.we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they
:12:43. > :12:47.say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,
:12:48. > :12:52.Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this
:12:53. > :12:59.is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able
:13:00. > :13:03.to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly
:13:04. > :13:08.list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,
:13:09. > :13:20.this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.
:13:21. > :13:22.To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative
:13:23. > :13:27.The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative
:13:28. > :13:31.Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -
:13:32. > :13:34.that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier
:13:35. > :13:48.There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,
:13:49. > :13:51.and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to
:13:52. > :13:55.the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of
:13:56. > :14:01.Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge
:14:02. > :14:07.they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.
:14:08. > :14:10.Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of
:14:11. > :14:15.pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories
:14:16. > :14:22.run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten
:14:23. > :14:26.councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more
:14:27. > :14:30.ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is
:14:31. > :14:34.getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing
:14:35. > :14:43.seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be
:14:44. > :14:46.stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the
:14:47. > :14:52.policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU
:14:53. > :14:58.Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,
:14:59. > :15:10.39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...
:15:11. > :15:18.It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said
:15:19. > :15:23.were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while
:15:24. > :15:28.treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a
:15:29. > :15:32.Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative
:15:33. > :15:37.councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the
:15:38. > :15:43.general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are
:15:44. > :15:49.opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left
:15:50. > :15:55.the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the
:15:56. > :16:01.Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but
:16:02. > :16:10.what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my
:16:11. > :16:15.residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was
:16:16. > :16:22.happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%
:16:23. > :16:28.think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with
:16:29. > :16:33.31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing
:16:34. > :16:39.councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an
:16:40. > :16:46.issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a
:16:47. > :16:51.way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is
:16:52. > :16:57.almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the
:16:58. > :17:03.party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey
:17:04. > :17:08.thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have
:17:09. > :17:14.not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for
:17:15. > :17:19.difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must
:17:20. > :17:25.be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be
:17:26. > :17:31.specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote
:17:32. > :17:34.UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are
:17:35. > :17:39.disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,
:17:40. > :17:43.come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just
:17:44. > :17:48.eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and
:17:49. > :17:55.local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem
:17:56. > :18:01.the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former
:18:02. > :18:05.Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.
:18:06. > :18:08.Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:09. > :18:14.trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They
:18:15. > :18:19.believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and
:18:20. > :18:25.they are right. They said before they defected that people should
:18:26. > :18:31.vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is
:18:32. > :18:35.right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this
:18:36. > :18:40.is the point, the people should decide. However a future government
:18:41. > :18:45.decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who
:18:46. > :18:49.decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough
:18:50. > :18:55.powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come
:18:56. > :19:01.out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.
:19:02. > :19:06.The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron
:19:07. > :19:12.won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to
:19:13. > :19:17.give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote
:19:18. > :19:23.to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and
:19:24. > :19:27.be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in
:19:28. > :19:32.advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the
:19:33. > :19:37.rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take
:19:38. > :19:42.place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just
:19:43. > :19:46.now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that
:19:47. > :19:55.choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.
:19:56. > :19:59.Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave
:20:00. > :20:07.the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but
:20:08. > :20:13.again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want
:20:14. > :20:17.to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before
:20:18. > :20:21.they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is
:20:22. > :20:29.Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will
:20:30. > :20:34.not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I
:20:35. > :20:37.think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be
:20:38. > :20:42.scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,
:20:43. > :20:47.didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign
:20:48. > :20:52.Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first
:20:53. > :20:59.reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..
:21:00. > :21:04.Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26
:21:05. > :21:12.years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.
:21:13. > :21:17.Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?
:21:18. > :21:20.We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve
:21:21. > :21:28.things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider
:21:29. > :21:34.negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative
:21:35. > :21:48.promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to
:21:49. > :21:53.keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,
:21:54. > :22:12.you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000
:22:13. > :22:20.in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that
:22:21. > :22:24.under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the
:22:25. > :22:29.country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?
:22:30. > :22:35.Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?
:22:36. > :22:40.coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened
:22:41. > :22:46.under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we
:22:47. > :22:51.would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on
:22:52. > :22:57.immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.
:22:58. > :23:02.Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in
:23:03. > :23:07.2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP
:23:08. > :23:13.now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in
:23:14. > :23:17.this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought
:23:18. > :23:22.they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a
:23:23. > :23:27.thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of
:23:28. > :23:31.opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will
:23:32. > :23:35.be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are
:23:36. > :23:39.announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next
:23:40. > :23:45.Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather
:23:46. > :23:53.than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our
:23:54. > :23:59.survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact
:24:00. > :24:08.with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows
:24:09. > :24:15.one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want
:24:16. > :24:19.it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't
:24:20. > :24:26.work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are
:24:27. > :24:31.sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is
:24:32. > :24:36.further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards
:24:37. > :24:39.English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is
:24:40. > :24:43.unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we
:24:44. > :24:47.believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we
:24:48. > :24:53.have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK
:24:54. > :24:57.as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election
:24:58. > :25:03.result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,
:25:04. > :25:08.absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns
:25:09. > :25:13.night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals
:25:14. > :25:18.for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are
:25:19. > :25:24.agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There
:25:25. > :25:32.was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will
:25:33. > :25:36.produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for
:25:37. > :25:40.Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals
:25:41. > :25:46.for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will
:25:47. > :25:50.you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?
:25:51. > :25:56.The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You
:25:57. > :26:01.will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I
:26:02. > :26:05.don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish
:26:06. > :26:10.timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general
:26:11. > :26:16.election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what
:26:17. > :26:22.English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it
:26:23. > :26:27.over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,
:26:28. > :26:32.but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions
:26:33. > :26:37.that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs
:26:38. > :26:41.from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can
:26:42. > :26:45.achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English
:26:46. > :26:51.devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if
:26:52. > :26:56.you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going
:26:57. > :27:01.on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more
:27:02. > :27:06.freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of
:27:07. > :27:15.that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what
:27:16. > :27:20.happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution
:27:21. > :27:25.or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and
:27:26. > :27:29.that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair
:27:30. > :27:34.to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you
:27:35. > :27:41.perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more
:27:42. > :27:46.tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a
:27:47. > :27:51.commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --
:27:52. > :27:59.but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is
:28:00. > :28:04.less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to
:28:05. > :28:09.Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot
:28:10. > :28:14.more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about
:28:15. > :28:19.taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you
:28:20. > :28:23.can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,
:28:24. > :28:27.there will be English votes for English laws after the election
:28:28. > :28:31.Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if
:28:32. > :28:35.there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce
:28:36. > :28:40.our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go
:28:41. > :28:46.away because I want to move on to some other matters.
:28:47. > :28:49.Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.
:28:50. > :28:51.Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq
:28:52. > :28:54.since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.
:28:55. > :29:02.When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers
:29:03. > :29:07.who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have
:29:08. > :29:12.already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to
:29:13. > :29:17.maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back
:29:18. > :29:21.from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else
:29:22. > :29:25.try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a
:29:26. > :29:30.full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role
:29:31. > :29:34.to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.
:29:35. > :29:37.And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,
:29:38. > :29:49.Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all
:29:50. > :29:53.that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been
:29:54. > :30:01.announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are
:30:02. > :30:03.sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of
:30:04. > :30:09.Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so
:30:10. > :30:14.little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some
:30:15. > :30:18.unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked
:30:19. > :30:22.for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it
:30:23. > :30:27.will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which
:30:28. > :30:31.can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the
:30:32. > :30:37.operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,
:30:38. > :30:40.Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our
:30:41. > :30:45.backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British
:30:46. > :30:49.government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic
:30:50. > :30:55.country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could
:30:56. > :30:59.have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political
:31:00. > :31:04.consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to
:31:05. > :31:07.send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with
:31:08. > :31:10.that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many
:31:11. > :31:18.other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards
:31:19. > :31:23.Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he
:31:24. > :31:25.condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any
:31:26. > :31:36.credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,
:31:37. > :31:40.they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we
:31:41. > :31:44.are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote
:31:45. > :31:48.last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the
:31:49. > :31:52.House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken
:31:53. > :31:55.care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of
:31:56. > :32:04.Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until
:32:05. > :32:09.recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq
:32:10. > :32:15.but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make
:32:16. > :32:23.sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our
:32:24. > :32:27.assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime
:32:28. > :32:33.Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there
:32:34. > :32:37.is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When
:32:38. > :32:41.we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by
:32:42. > :32:47.all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign
:32:48. > :32:50.policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority
:32:51. > :32:55.in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael
:32:56. > :33:02.Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he
:33:03. > :33:06.says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they
:33:07. > :33:10.are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery
:33:11. > :33:14.of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything
:33:15. > :33:18.does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United
:33:19. > :33:22.States and other countries are engaged in the action against
:33:23. > :33:28.targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing
:33:29. > :33:31.different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the
:33:32. > :33:36.House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have
:33:37. > :33:40.achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.
:33:41. > :33:44.The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported
:33:45. > :33:48.that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a
:33:49. > :33:52.democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a
:33:53. > :33:58.very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue
:33:59. > :34:03.a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not
:34:04. > :34:08.embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military
:34:09. > :34:12.experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone
:34:13. > :34:19.tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We
:34:20. > :34:22.have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike
:34:23. > :34:26.the last government. The national security council is chaired by the
:34:27. > :34:34.Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of
:34:35. > :34:38.the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the
:34:39. > :34:44.people who have the information now. So, you will know what British
:34:45. > :34:49.and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said
:34:50. > :34:53.there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come
:34:54. > :34:55.back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will
:34:56. > :35:01.have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,
:35:02. > :35:07.indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does
:35:08. > :35:14.that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:15. > :35:19.comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat
:35:20. > :35:24.to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't
:35:25. > :35:29.Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in
:35:30. > :35:33.the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take
:35:34. > :35:37.action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have
:35:38. > :35:43.not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought
:35:44. > :35:46.we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes
:35:47. > :35:53.on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal
:35:54. > :35:57.basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading
:35:58. > :36:03.of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that
:36:04. > :36:07.they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their
:36:08. > :36:14.action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes
:36:15. > :36:20.back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless it
:36:21. > :36:25.is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria
:36:26. > :36:31.in building up the political strength of the more moderate
:36:32. > :36:35.opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do
:36:36. > :36:42.not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing
:36:43. > :36:46.something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you
:36:47. > :36:51.not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure
:36:52. > :36:56.of the legal advice at the time and also we do not comment on the advice
:36:57. > :37:01.given to us by the Law officers Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That
:37:02. > :37:05.was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal
:37:06. > :37:10.advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal
:37:11. > :37:13.situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it
:37:14. > :37:23.that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme
:37:24. > :37:26.humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine
:37:27. > :37:28.strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal
:37:29. > :37:30.advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say
:37:31. > :37:35.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who My name's Alex Forsyth.
:37:36. > :38:02.minutes, The Week Ahead. On today's show,
:38:03. > :38:04.a tale of two conferences. As UKIP goes out with
:38:05. > :38:07.a bang having bagged another defector, the Conservatives gather
:38:08. > :38:09.in Birmingham with questions being asked about whether others light be
:38:10. > :38:14.preparing to jump ship. First let's meet
:38:15. > :38:18.the two politicians who'll be with Ranil Jayawardena is
:38:19. > :38:21.the Conservative candidate for North East Hampshire
:38:22. > :38:23.and Victoria Groulef is the Labour So as we saw from Andrew earlier,
:38:24. > :38:27.Conservatives are gathering in Birmingham
:38:28. > :38:29.for their party conference. We thought we'd test how thd voters
:38:30. > :38:32.see their party, so we went out on the streets of Bournemouth to
:38:33. > :38:35.ask the old marketing questhon ` if the Conservatives were an animal,
:38:36. > :38:48.what animal would they be and why? A Rottweiler, cos it doesn't give
:38:49. > :38:50.a damn for anyone. There's got to be some wisdom
:38:51. > :38:55.hiding somewhere, hasn't thdre? A leopard, because they change
:38:56. > :38:58.their spots so many times. I think they spend 95%
:38:59. > :39:02.of the time upside down, I would probably say some khnd of
:39:03. > :39:09.predator, like a wolf or solething. Well, I would
:39:10. > :39:20.like them to be a dead raccoon. Say a lion, because they ard
:39:21. > :39:23.very strong and powerful. Because the leopard sneaks tp
:39:24. > :39:36.on people. Because they are very sly,
:39:37. > :40:01.sometimes. Clearly, that is educating `nd
:40:02. > :40:08.informing viewers. I have to say that I love beers and the bder sum
:40:09. > :40:10.up the Conservative Party as intelligent and kidding cre`tures
:40:11. > :40:16.protecting the young and certainly, I think, risk averse and gohng to
:40:17. > :40:21.plan for the future. That is what we are about.
:40:22. > :40:25.We asked the same question of Web reporters last week and I h`ve to
:40:26. > :40:33.say, they were not particul`r, when she. We had a sheep and a pdg for
:40:34. > :40:39.Labour. I quite like the pegs. There is a question of how the party is
:40:40. > :40:42.perceived. Do you have at problem in the Labour Party, particularly with
:40:43. > :40:46.Julie. ? I hear this from journalists but not on the
:40:47. > :40:50.doorstep. I think it is a Westminster bubble obsession,
:40:51. > :40:58.obsessed in over whose leaddr is the best. I think we need to put it to
:40:59. > :41:07.bed. We need to talk about policies, because that is what really matters.
:41:08. > :41:10.Safe to say that the Conservative conference hasn't been going
:41:11. > :41:13.Our political editor Peter Henley is up in Birmingham
:41:14. > :41:19.To lose one MP to UKIP is unfortunate,
:41:20. > :41:25.And then there is a sex scandal albeit a virtual one.
:41:26. > :41:28.David Cameron will not be h`ppy waking up to the headlines
:41:29. > :41:33.In the introduction to the conference guide,
:41:34. > :41:36.he stresses the need for Conservatives to win an outright
:41:37. > :41:41.That is the way, he says, the only way, that they can achieve
:41:42. > :41:46.And many of his local MPs agree with that.
:41:47. > :41:49.I have been a big fan of the coalition, it has worked
:41:50. > :41:51.it has delivered stability, it has delivered real econolic
:41:52. > :41:54.change, real improvement to people's lives, chances, in the south`east.
:41:55. > :41:57.But I think it would be much better to have a single party
:41:58. > :42:00.So will this be a campaigning conference?
:42:01. > :42:04.I think it will set out that what we want to do is secure Britain's
:42:05. > :42:07.future, that the reforms put in place over the course of thd last
:42:08. > :42:10.four years, on welfare, education, attacking the deficit are things
:42:11. > :42:12.that we need to carry forward into the next Parliament. It needs
:42:13. > :42:17.to be a strong message about what we would do if we were elected to form
:42:18. > :42:21.And the economy is at the forefront of people's minds and making
:42:22. > :42:24.the case so that people unddrstand the choice facing them at the next
:42:25. > :42:27.general election is for us to continue the hard work is started or
:42:28. > :42:33.go back to the dangerous prospect of another Labour government.
:42:34. > :42:35.We are seeing a great improvement where wd have
:42:36. > :42:38.cut the deficit already by a third and a half in thhs year
:42:39. > :42:41.where we are seeing that we are the fastest`growing major economy.
:42:42. > :42:44.We have seen unemployment in my constituency fall by 45%,
:42:45. > :42:47.youth unemployment fall by 68%, these are real encouraging signs
:42:48. > :42:52.The mantra for all Conservative MPs is the same ` repeat that long`term
:42:53. > :42:58.But there have already been new policy announcements.
:42:59. > :43:01.Caps on welfare benefits, limits for youngsters to cl`im
:43:02. > :43:09.The impact of UKIP, though, is the thing that is worrying
:43:10. > :43:15.Three by`elections now in prospect where they stand a decent chance.
:43:16. > :43:19.So earlier I spoke to the former Chief Whip and north`west H`mpshire
:43:20. > :43:26.MP Sir George Young about how party discipline might be affected.
:43:27. > :43:29.I think when you come to a general election, the key question
:43:30. > :43:33.is who is going to be Prime Minister and actually it's not going to be
:43:34. > :43:36.Nigel Farage, it is either David Cameron or it is Ed Mhliband.
:43:37. > :43:40.So I think unlike a by`election which in a sense is a free hit,
:43:41. > :43:43.it's a general election, so it's a serious question,
:43:44. > :43:46.who is going to run this cotntry for the next five years?
:43:47. > :43:48.Who has got the best team, the best policies?
:43:49. > :43:51.I think against that background quite a lot of conservatives who
:43:52. > :43:53.might have drifted to UKIP hn the local elections or by`electhons
:43:54. > :43:56.will come back once they ard confronted with a serious ddcision,
:43:57. > :43:59.whose is going to run this country for the next five ydars
:44:00. > :44:02.And this conference will trx to avoid all talk of Europe, whll it?
:44:03. > :44:05.Well, we have a very popular policy on Europe
:44:06. > :44:08.We are the only major party to give this country a choice in 2007,
:44:09. > :44:12.in or out, after we have renegotiated the current trdaty
:44:13. > :44:16.And all the evidence I have seen is that is a very popular policy.
:44:17. > :44:19.People can't understand why the other parties won't trust them
:44:20. > :44:24.That is a policy behind which the Tory party can unhte.
:44:25. > :44:26.Even the resigning Brooks Ndwmark was able to stress
:44:27. > :44:28.the long`term economic plan in his resignation letter.
:44:29. > :44:32.There is discipline within this party.
:44:33. > :44:36.One man to benefit is the Rdading East MP Rob Wilson who becoles
:44:37. > :44:44.Well, it's all to do with volunteering and the Big Society.
:44:45. > :44:50.And David Cameron will need some more big ideas to put beford
:44:51. > :45:02.the public and grab their attention to gain control of this conference.
:45:03. > :45:07.Of course that has somewhat overshadowed the start of this
:45:08. > :45:12.Conservative Party conference. This is one where you want to make your
:45:13. > :45:16.message about your economic credibility clear. How do you do
:45:17. > :45:20.that? I do not think it has overshadowed the conference.
:45:21. > :45:24.Clearly, any resignation or defection makes a good headline The
:45:25. > :45:29.factors that competing two conferences and certainly what David
:45:30. > :45:34.Cameron will be about later this week is really articulating the hope
:45:35. > :45:40.for a better Britain for evdryone. The fact is, as Peter said hn that
:45:41. > :45:44.piece, we have talked about delivering on a long`term economic
:45:45. > :45:50.plan that has cut the deficht, that is reducing taxes for many, many
:45:51. > :45:53.people. That is ensuring th`t welfare is fear, rewarding those
:45:54. > :45:58.that work hard and play by the rules. It is about securing a better
:45:59. > :46:02.future for Britain, for our country as a whole and children and our
:46:03. > :46:07.grandchildren. Do you think really feeling that? That? We're shtting
:46:08. > :46:11.here in the south, the powerhouse of the economy. There are people that
:46:12. > :46:14.we know whose wages do not live up to what you're saying. That will
:46:15. > :46:22.play out at the election, would that? If we look at the inflation,
:46:23. > :46:30.it is no being controlled vdry well at less than 2%. GDP growth is being
:46:31. > :46:34.`` has been consistently ovdr the last few quarters around 1%. We are
:46:35. > :46:38.seeing growth, we are seeing consistency in keeping infl`tion
:46:39. > :46:43.down. We are seeing lots of people in jobs. 1.8 million people are
:46:44. > :46:47.knowing jobs when they weren't at 2010 in the general election. These
:46:48. > :46:50.are people who have the sectrity of the job, you can then provide for
:46:51. > :46:57.their families. Add is monex in people 's pockets. `` that this
:46:58. > :47:04.money in people 's pockets. I disagree. That sounds like
:47:05. > :47:08.statistics. If you go out and speak to people, they are not just feeling
:47:09. > :47:13.the pinch, they are on their knees. What really annoys me is th`t we are
:47:14. > :47:17.in a situation in the moment `` at the moment when you are talking
:47:18. > :47:21.about the long`term plan, btt how long is that? Originally, you said
:47:22. > :47:26.that he was sorted out by 2015. That is no not going to happen. Ht has
:47:27. > :47:29.been kicked into the long grass We are in a situation where ordinary
:47:30. > :47:33.people are struggling to medt ends meet and on top of that, thd vast
:47:34. > :47:36.majority of people that I speak to did not see a world with thdir kids
:47:37. > :47:40.will have better or the samd opportunities that they had. That
:47:41. > :47:45.breaks my heart and I think that is why we need to be balanced with the
:47:46. > :47:49.economy works for ordinary people. But the important thing is that we
:47:50. > :47:56.saw at the Labour Party conference that Ed Miliband did not sax
:47:57. > :47:59.anything about the deficit. Will you quite rightly outlined that that has
:48:00. > :48:06.a long`term plan because it will take time. How long has it? George
:48:07. > :48:13.Osborne has been very clear that he now wants to ensure that thd economy
:48:14. > :48:16.is on an even keel. That we are breaking even on the public finances
:48:17. > :48:22.by the end of the next parlhament. But you are spending ?190 bhllion
:48:23. > :48:26.more than you planned. It is a serious point that Ed Milib`nd did I
:48:27. > :48:30.forget the deficit in his speech. With regard to his speech, think it
:48:31. > :48:34.was talking about the things that matter out there in the real world.
:48:35. > :48:40.The things that matter to pdople are jobs, housing, the NHS, how the left
:48:41. > :48:44.their ordinary lives. Of cotrse the deficit and in some cases eligration
:48:45. > :48:49.underpins that, that is what the Shadow Chancellor's speech hs about
:48:50. > :48:53.and that was delivered. I think we need to start talking about what the
:48:54. > :48:56.real issues are in the real economy where people are struggling or just
:48:57. > :49:03.doing OK. And I don't want people and read to just do OK. I w`nt them
:49:04. > :49:05.to thrive and grow. I wanted to be a hub of activity going forward.
:49:06. > :49:10.Letters look at that Shadow Chancellor speech. Edible is said
:49:11. > :49:14.that he was quoted sure that all policies were funded and yet there
:49:15. > :49:18.is an 18 and a half funding black hole in what he has announcdd. But
:49:19. > :49:28.you will not let them look `t the budget to see if it does work. You
:49:29. > :49:33.both mitts on the point? Yot're bringing it back to what people do
:49:34. > :49:36.in to see from your parties to see which one they will choose for the
:49:37. > :49:40.future. That is the point that people have been telling me. People
:49:41. > :49:46.recognise that you cannot fhnd a better NHS unless you have `n
:49:47. > :49:50.economy that is actually working. For all, but not just for a few at
:49:51. > :49:54.the top. The trouble with the policies that are exposed bx a
:49:55. > :49:58.Labour is that yes they want to spend money on public services, but
:49:59. > :50:04.there is not a plan on how to pay for it. People recognise th`t. You
:50:05. > :50:09.will not let the office of budget responsibility check our budget Are
:50:10. > :50:15.you struggling with the leg`cy of the last government? Can yot get
:50:16. > :50:19.beyond the apologies on how the economy was handled? I speak to
:50:20. > :50:24.people every day. The real hssue is whether the moment and wherd they
:50:25. > :50:27.want to be. Issues about thd Norwegian economy and our promise to
:50:28. > :50:33.increase the national minimtm wage, it is a massive issue for pdople. A
:50:34. > :50:38.lot of people are very low wages. That has an impact, for exalple on
:50:39. > :50:44.housing benefits. By 2019, we will be playing around 400 and and a date
:50:45. > :50:49.her family on housing benefht. If we paid them a decent wage for the work
:50:50. > :50:59.they do every day, they would be paying less and housing bendfit ``
:51:00. > :51:02.488. It is important that goes up gradually reflects people 's
:51:03. > :51:06.contribution. At the same thme we had to deal with the real economy
:51:07. > :51:10.As the Tory conference starts the UKIP one comes to an end.
:51:11. > :51:13.The Kippers have been at thd racecourse in Doncaster, celebrating
:51:14. > :51:15.their best`ever European eldction results, as well as considerable
:51:16. > :51:20.And of course in just a few weeks' time they're hoping to get their
:51:21. > :51:22.first ever member of Parlialent at the Clacton by`election.
:51:23. > :51:25.Just before party leader Nigel Farage set off to the races, Peter
:51:26. > :51:31.You're the UK Independence Party, but in the south of England,
:51:32. > :51:33.there seems to be resurgencd in English nationalism.
:51:34. > :51:37.With 18 years of a devolution debate, 18 years of the Scottish
:51:38. > :51:40.tail wagging the English dog, 18 years of being told don't speak
:51:41. > :51:42.about England, there's something disreputable about being English.
:51:43. > :51:53.We have had a referendum, the UK is going to stay together but ht has to
:51:54. > :51:56.But people don't like this party political manoeuvring, they're the
:51:57. > :52:02.Is there a clear solution hdre for devolving power within Dngland?
:52:03. > :52:05.Well, I think the first thing we have to do, we mustn't put
:52:06. > :52:09.Everyone is talking about rdgional government and city state
:52:10. > :52:14.The first thing to sort out is England's relationship as a country
:52:15. > :52:18.Once we do that, we can talk about devolved powers.
:52:19. > :52:21.You sound like you're kicking it into the long grass as well, Nigel.
:52:22. > :52:27.When it comes to the plan to regionalise England, and I speak as
:52:28. > :52:35.There was a referendum on this in the north`east some years ago.
:52:36. > :52:37.Nearly 80% of people voted against it.
:52:38. > :52:41.I don't want regionalisation, but should Hampshire County Council
:52:42. > :52:44.have more control, more money raising powers,
:52:45. > :52:48.and the ability to set their own business rates, I think there is a
:52:49. > :52:54.In the last election, in Buckingham, you had the best result.
:52:55. > :53:01.Will there be a UKIP candidate against Spdaker?
:53:02. > :53:06.Will there be a UKIP candid`te for all the seats in the Sotth?
:53:07. > :53:10.In fact, we are in a position where by mid`January
:53:11. > :53:13.we will have selected our c`ndidates for every single constituency
:53:14. > :53:22.And we are also getting ready to fight local elections.
:53:23. > :53:26.And your four MEPs, they will all be standing for Parliament `nd
:53:27. > :53:30.That might stick in some people's throats.
:53:31. > :53:33.They will not be using Brussels money to do that.
:53:34. > :53:36.They are paid to be MEPs, they have been elected with
:53:37. > :53:39.a full`time job but they will be spending their time campaigning
:53:40. > :53:49.They can do a 40`hour week `s MEPs and go out and campaign.
:53:50. > :53:58.Well, I'm not being paid for standing as an MP, am I?
:53:59. > :54:01.You'll be happy for those MDPs to take time away from Brussels
:54:02. > :54:08.They will do 40 hours a week as MEPs and in their free time they will
:54:09. > :54:11.And they will not spend a pdnny of Brussels money
:54:12. > :54:15.I will absolutely make sure that we're not spending Brussels money
:54:16. > :54:19.And you'll be taken votes away mainly from Conservatives
:54:20. > :54:23.in our part of the world and those are, a lot of the time,
:54:24. > :54:25.people who are wavering between you on the issue of Europe.
:54:26. > :54:27.So you'll be harming the Eurosceptic interest.
:54:28. > :54:29.When you saw the Eastleigh by`election, it was
:54:30. > :54:32.the LibDem vote that we hurt more than we hurt the Conservative vote.
:54:33. > :54:34.UKIP takes its support from across`the`board, the lessage
:54:35. > :54:38.is in our target areas next year, if you vote UKIP, you have
:54:39. > :55:10.People tend to think that they are a threat to the Conservatives, but not
:55:11. > :55:15.necessarily. I think he needs to draw up and stop being so bombastic.
:55:16. > :55:19.It is just ridiculous. He plays this anti`politics fort, that I don't
:55:20. > :55:25.talk like normal politicians and then uses these awful sound bites. I
:55:26. > :55:29.don't think it washes. I am not worried at all. Quite frankly I
:55:30. > :55:33.continue doing what I'm doing talking to people today and let them
:55:34. > :55:37.make a decision in May. You could have done well in Hampshire, where
:55:38. > :55:40.they have seats on local cotncil. He did well in the Eastleigh
:55:41. > :55:45.by`election. You cannot just brush this off. People are voting for
:55:46. > :55:48.them. People are voting for the issues you kept have highlighted.
:55:49. > :56:02.When the emigration and Europe and tax. `` on emigration and Etrope and
:56:03. > :56:06.tax. When people get is that at the general election it is a choice
:56:07. > :56:10.between David Cameron or Ed Miliband. When it comes to the
:56:11. > :56:14.general election, people ard looking at the broad policy platforls and
:56:15. > :56:16.finding out who would be a responsible government. People will
:56:17. > :56:27.have that clear choice and there remains and frankly Nigel for ranch
:56:28. > :56:34.is not good to be in governlent They are going to wear ten Dd
:56:35. > :56:38.Miliband by the back door. `` they are going to let Ed Miliband in by
:56:39. > :56:42.the back door. If I talk to people about issues on the door and
:56:43. > :56:46.emigration is raised, quite often win to have a further conversation
:56:47. > :56:49.and it will be about jobs and housing. The conversations that we
:56:50. > :56:53.really need to be having our issues about jobs and housing, bec`use
:56:54. > :57:04.those are the things that rdally matter to people. I don't think that
:57:05. > :57:11.emigration is something that we have to talk about. You do not think that
:57:12. > :57:14.emigration will play a big part in the general election? I think the
:57:15. > :57:17.issue is where the Butterworth, how their kids are going to get on the
:57:18. > :57:21.housing ladder and how the `rrogant to get a really good job. I think
:57:22. > :57:25.this is one of the key `` clear differences. I believe that it is an
:57:26. > :57:29.issue that we should be talking about and I think if we don't top
:57:30. > :57:35.about it, it allows them to capture that ground. But not that one that
:57:36. > :57:41.the Conservatives have done particularly well on. It has been
:57:42. > :57:52.coming down considerably. Clearly, we have to do better. The point is
:57:53. > :57:56.that people do recognise th`t there is only one party offering `
:57:57. > :57:58.referendum and that is the Conservative Party. Labour `nd
:57:59. > :58:05.Liberal Democrats have conshstently said that they do not to offer one.
:58:06. > :58:10.If people want that change on Europe, the Conservative Party as
:58:11. > :58:13.the party that is able to gdt that. Will you improve your border
:58:14. > :58:16.controls and start letting some of the students back in that wd have
:58:17. > :58:20.not let end because even though we ring in the future rates of mine to
:58:21. > :58:22.our economy. You will have to hold your thought on that answer, because
:58:23. > :58:26.time has beaten us. Now our regular round`up
:58:27. > :58:29.of the political week in thd South New build or no build,
:58:30. > :58:33.Reading Council had to decide whether 1000 new homes could tackle
:58:34. > :58:38.its housing crisis even thotgh they Meanwhile residents in
:58:39. > :58:44.North Hampshire say over development Talking of bins, in Oxford
:58:45. > :58:51.they are not working so well. The council is spending thotsands to
:58:52. > :58:55.pick up four tonnes We're wasting all this monex
:58:56. > :59:00.on clearing rubbish which wd could be spending on building council
:59:01. > :59:02.houses, improving the parks making But money is being spent
:59:03. > :59:07.on flood prevention in Oxfordshire. More than ?1 million to try to stop
:59:08. > :59:11.a repeat of last winter's w`shout. But despite the flood of cash
:59:12. > :59:14.on offer, only a third of the affected houses or btsinesses
:59:15. > :59:19.have applied for grants to repair The are apparently key to tdaching
:59:20. > :59:28.computer programming in Northampton. It's all part
:59:29. > :59:57.of the new primary curricultm. On the flooding, do you think we
:59:58. > :00:02.have done enough? We're working on it. I think we should be making the
:00:03. > :00:08.flood prevention are really important part and making it a top
:00:09. > :00:12.priority because it is happdning again. And it affects everybody
:00:13. > :00:14.That's the Sunday Politics in the South.
:00:15. > :00:16.Thanks to my guests Ranil Jayawardena and Victoria Groulef.
:00:17. > :00:19.Next week we'll be looking at the Lib Dem conference, `nd they
:00:20. > :00:22.get a turn at finding out what kind of animal people see them as.
:00:23. > :00:25.Peter will be reporting frol the Conservative conference during
:00:26. > :00:40.For now, though, it's back to Andrew.
:00:41. > :00:56.My thanks to you both. Andrew, back to you.
:00:57. > :01:04.Here we are back in Birmingham with the Conservatives. The Tories
:01:05. > :01:10.thought all they had to do was come here, have a rally, a jamboree, and
:01:11. > :01:15.off they go to the races, or in their case the general election Two
:01:16. > :01:21.races later it hasn't quite worked out like that. Let's look at the
:01:22. > :01:27.state of this conference as it gets under way. On our panel we are
:01:28. > :01:32.joined by David Davis. You wrote an article in the Mail on Sunday this
:01:33. > :01:38.morning which was an Exocet at the heart of David Cameron's modernising
:01:39. > :01:44.strategy. It was designed to act as a lever. It was designed to cause
:01:45. > :01:49.trouble. No, we are in the running for the next general election. One
:01:50. > :01:53.of the characteristics of having a five year fixed term Parliaments is
:01:54. > :01:57.that the last year is about campaigning. It is important we beat
:01:58. > :02:04.Miliband, he would be a disastrous Prime Minister. You think the whole
:02:05. > :02:12.modernising strategy was a wrong turn, that is what the article said.
:02:13. > :02:31.Yes. Has that opened the door to UKIP? It has left a lot of people
:02:32. > :02:34.disillusioned with politics. What do you do to get it right? Who was
:02:35. > :03:09.listening to you? Frankly we need to take a more
:03:10. > :03:13.robust series of policies. How many more UKIP defections will there be?
:03:14. > :03:22.I do not think there will be any more. I would be very surprised I
:03:23. > :03:27.know Nigel Farage has a brilliant sense of timing, but I do not think
:03:28. > :03:32.he has got the resources to do that, namely, another Tory MP. So it could
:03:33. > :03:38.be another Labour one, maybe? I think an awful lot will hinge on
:03:39. > :03:44.what happens in Rochester. Because that is not a slam dunk. Clack and
:03:45. > :03:56.unfortunately looks like it will be a walkover for them. But Rochester
:03:57. > :04:02.is a different scene. And so, there could be a kind of Newark situation.
:04:03. > :04:07.When I campaigned in Newark, two labour families I spoke to said they
:04:08. > :04:12.would vote Tory to keep UKIP out. How bad was the Labour conference
:04:13. > :04:16.last week? One politician said after he had a really bad performance that
:04:17. > :04:22.his television performance was suboptimal. I think that would be a
:04:23. > :04:25.good way of describing Ed Miliband's speech. The problem for
:04:26. > :04:29.Ed Miliband in memorising speeches is that we are not auditioning for a
:04:30. > :04:35.new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing for Prime Minister. He failed the
:04:36. > :04:38.Laurence Olivier test, and therefore failed the Prime Minister test. I
:04:39. > :04:41.think the real problem for him was forgetting to mention the deficit.
:04:42. > :04:47.He spoke from the heart about issues which she really cares about, the
:04:48. > :04:51.NHS, the rupture between wages and inflation, and forgot the deficit.
:04:52. > :04:54.Those issues are important, but if you are not addressing things like
:04:55. > :04:58.the deficit, then people are really not going to be listening to your
:04:59. > :05:06.messages on the areas that matter. Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am
:05:07. > :05:09.afraid. I hope that this ends the nonsense of leaders wasting their
:05:10. > :05:14.time learning speeches off by heart. You could learn a Shakespeare
:05:15. > :05:19.play in the time it takes to learn 70 minutes of a leader's speech I
:05:20. > :05:22.think we should just go back to sensible reading what you have
:05:23. > :05:27.written. You can then alter it just beforehand. A lot of things were
:05:28. > :05:31.changing, which is not surprising, but he did not have time to learn
:05:32. > :05:35.it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked once or twice, but that is enough
:05:36. > :05:38.for that. Despite some of the derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories
:05:39. > :05:43.are flat-lining in the sun decks, they have been there almost since
:05:44. > :05:49.the disastrous budget, the omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is
:05:50. > :05:54.still several points ahead, nothing seems to change? And David Cameron
:05:55. > :05:57.is now the leader in trouble. It is almost as if a week is a long time
:05:58. > :06:05.in politics. I thought the Labour and friends was Saab --
:06:06. > :06:11.sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial. You could've watched the top
:06:12. > :06:15.speeches without knowing that the borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and
:06:16. > :06:19.Syria were in question. I hope, because of Friday's discussion in
:06:20. > :06:24.Parliament, that this conference will raise its sights a bit, and we
:06:25. > :06:28.will have something in Cameron's speech, possibly that of George
:06:29. > :06:33.Osborne as well, which is a bit more global. People hoped UKIP had gone
:06:34. > :06:40.away during the summer, people at this conference, I mean, but it is
:06:41. > :06:44.back with a bang. They are still up at 15% in the polls, the Tories
:06:45. > :06:49.languishing on 32 - what is going to change? UKIP won 3% of the last
:06:50. > :06:57.election, I always thought they would get about 6%. If, by the turn
:06:58. > :07:01.of the year, they are still in double digits, I think at that point
:07:02. > :07:06.you can begin to wake of his party's chances of winning. I have
:07:07. > :07:11.had three people say to me so far, come election day, it will be fine,
:07:12. > :07:15.people will sober up and so on. It will be all right on the night is
:07:16. > :07:23.not a very good strategy, frankly. When they get past 5%, I start to
:07:24. > :07:27.bite into our 3-way marginal seats, with liberals, Labour and Tories,
:07:28. > :07:31.and we have got about 60 of those in the Midlands and the north, so it
:07:32. > :07:36.really is quite serious. And if I may steal one of David's lines, when
:07:37. > :07:40.you were interviewing Mark Reckless this morning, and was not talking
:07:41. > :07:44.about the EU referendum, he was talking about how he felt he had
:07:45. > :07:48.broken his pledges to the electorate because the Conservatives he said
:07:49. > :07:50.had failed on immigration and on the deficit, and those sort of
:07:51. > :07:55.bread-and-butter issues could be really potent on the doorstep, which
:07:56. > :07:58.means the Tories have got to run the kind of campaign they ran in Newark,
:07:59. > :08:03.which is a real centre ground, Reddan but a campaign, in which they
:08:04. > :08:08.would hope to get Liberal Democrat and Labour voters out to vote
:08:09. > :08:12.tactically against UKIP. I think today we have seen Cameron been
:08:13. > :08:17.pushed to the right. He has had to say, yes, I would leave Europe,
:08:18. > :08:21.which he has never said before. It is a huge stepping stone, a big
:08:22. > :08:28.difference. It takes the Tory party somewhere else. May be get them a
:08:29. > :08:34.lot of votes. But it has not so far. But I think it loses a lot of
:08:35. > :08:38.people. The industry organisations, for example. The prospect of going
:08:39. > :08:44.out of Europe, but is quite a fight for them. Is it not the lesson that
:08:45. > :08:54.you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do not need to, really. I agree, last
:08:55. > :09:03.week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold on, that is enough subs! I would not
:09:04. > :09:08.be crowing too much! But what I was going to say, he left out something
:09:09. > :09:13.incredibly important, the deficit. But how many people outside the M25
:09:14. > :09:18.are thinking about the deficit? One problem we face with Miliband is, he
:09:19. > :09:23.is good at politics and bad at economics, in a way. He comes up
:09:24. > :09:27.with bonkers policies which people love, price-fixing, things like
:09:28. > :09:32.that. Our problem will be about relevance on the doorstep. I do not
:09:33. > :09:37.think at the end of the day it will be about Europe. But was there not a
:09:38. > :09:39.moment of danger for you at the conference, that one area where
:09:40. > :09:43.Miliband is potentially vulnerable is not having credible team with
:09:44. > :09:47.business. Who turned up at the Labour conference, the head of
:09:48. > :09:52.Airbus, saying, we have got to stay in the European Union? The danger is
:09:53. > :10:00.that Europe allows the Labour Party to gain credibility with business.
:10:01. > :10:03.There is some truth in that. But we are in effectively the home
:10:04. > :10:08.straight, the last six months, and people will be fussing about prices
:10:09. > :10:12.and jobs. Very parochial. They will not be saying, what does the CBI
:10:13. > :10:17.think about this? It is, what is happening to me, in my town, in my
:10:18. > :10:27.factory, in my office. That is where the fight will be. Is it not the
:10:28. > :10:31.truth that if UKIP stays anywhere near around this level of support,
:10:32. > :10:35.it is impossible for the Tories to win an overall majority? I would
:10:36. > :10:39.say, if it is this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to
:10:40. > :10:43.finish as the biggest party, even in a hung Parliament. The Tories keep
:10:44. > :10:48.trying to win back UKIP voters with cold logic - witches it makes Ed
:10:49. > :10:54.Miliband becoming prime minister more likely. UKIP is basically a
:10:55. > :10:58.vessel phenomenon, coming from the gut, and David Cameron has never
:10:59. > :11:00.found the emotional pitch in his rhetoric to meet that. I wonder
:11:01. > :11:12.whether we will see that moron Wednesday. It is just not him. I
:11:13. > :11:17.hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I hope you're right that we do
:11:18. > :11:23.actually engage on emotion. So far with UKIP, our policy has been to
:11:24. > :11:27.insult them. It does not work. I know that from my constituency. We
:11:28. > :11:30.have to say to them, there is a wider Tory family, we understand you
:11:31. > :11:36.are patria, we understand you are worried about your family, and we do
:11:37. > :11:38.the same. What does it tell us about the state of the Tories, seven
:11:39. > :11:42.months from the election, the economy is going well, they are not
:11:43. > :11:47.that far behind Labour, and yet there is all sorts of leadership
:11:48. > :11:50.speculation? It is extraordinary. They are doing well, they are in
:11:51. > :12:03.with a shout. It depends. UKIP has to be kept below 9% of. -- below
:12:04. > :12:07.9%. I think David Cameron is one of the few who speaks human, actually
:12:08. > :12:10.talks quite well to people and does not look like a swivel-eyed loons.
:12:11. > :12:15.Whereas a lot of people behind him do. You look at Duncan Smith and
:12:16. > :12:20.Eric Pickles, they are all kind of driven, ideological men, with very
:12:21. > :12:28.right-wing policies. And nice people! Don't hold back! He is not
:12:29. > :12:33.the Addams family, he is basically quite human. I think a lot of people
:12:34. > :12:37.do not realise how ideological he is himself and how well he has led his
:12:38. > :12:41.party in the direction they all want to go. You go on about him being
:12:42. > :12:46.this metropolitan moderniser, I do not think that is what he is,
:12:47. > :12:51.really. It may not be visible from the guardian offices in the
:12:52. > :12:57.metropolis! Everybody where you are, Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser.
:12:58. > :13:00.And where you are, too. That is the nature of living in London. The
:13:01. > :13:04.trouble is, when these people get into Westminster, they are part of
:13:05. > :13:10.Westminster, too. If you could only win by being an outsider, the moment
:13:11. > :13:12.you get in, you are done for. All teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson
:13:13. > :13:22.to be the next leader? I do not think so! The point of my Exocet, or
:13:23. > :13:27.lever, this morning, is that I think this is winnable. If we are good
:13:28. > :13:32.Tories for the next six months, we can do this. It is by denying ground
:13:33. > :13:38.to UKIP, not giving in to them, not buckling. Denying ground. Thank you
:13:39. > :13:41.to our panel. They did all right today, but the normal. That is your
:13:42. > :13:47.lot for today. I am back tomorrow. We will have live coverage of George
:13:48. > :13:50.Osborne's speech to the conference. I am back next week in Glasgow for
:13:51. > :13:56.The Sunday Politics at the Labour conference. How could you miss
:13:57. > :14:25.that? Remember, if it is Sunday it is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye
:14:26. > :14:40.of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.
:14:41. > :14:43.I think I've overdone it with the pistachios
:14:44. > :14:46.and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late!
:14:47. > :14:57.of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.