:00:36. > :00:41.There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next
:00:42. > :00:43.leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,
:00:44. > :00:50.This man might have something to say about that.
:00:51. > :00:53.Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.
:00:54. > :00:56.So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?
:00:57. > :01:01.The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane
:01:02. > :01:04.on the country's second city which has been in the hands of
:01:05. > :01:11.But what will be the fallout from this key clash?
:01:12. > :01:15.In the south, 11 of the candidates in the Witney by-election
:01:16. > :01:22.when they have so little hope of winning?
:01:23. > :01:24.world. Should all private landlords be licensed to help tackle the
:01:25. > :01:29.squalor? And with me - as always -
:01:30. > :01:32.the best and the brightest political panel in the business: Toby Young,
:01:33. > :01:35.Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn - The last leader was in the job
:01:36. > :01:44.a mere 18 days before she decided The favourite to succeed her then
:01:45. > :01:50.quit the party after a now infamous Ukip's biggest donor says the party
:01:51. > :01:55.is at "breaking point". This morning, the former
:01:56. > :02:02.Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans, announced that she would be
:02:03. > :02:04.running for the leadership. I've thought long and hard
:02:05. > :02:09.about this leadership bid, and one of the reasons I've perhaps
:02:10. > :02:12.delayed announcing it is because I wanted to be absolutely
:02:13. > :02:15.sure that I had the support And I can confirm that I have
:02:16. > :02:19.more than enough signatures on the nomination form already
:02:20. > :02:22.to be able to go forward. Let's not forget that 3,000 people
:02:23. > :02:26.signed a petition in support of me I know head office was besieged
:02:27. > :02:31.with letters in support. I would not be doing this
:02:32. > :02:34.if I didn't have the backing of our members, because our members
:02:35. > :02:37.are the most important Well, Paul Nuttall was
:02:38. > :02:45.Nigel Farage's deputy for many years and plenty of people saw him
:02:46. > :02:48.as a leader-in-waiting. Let's ask the man himself -
:02:49. > :03:02.Paul Nuttall joins me now. Yes. I've made the decision that I'm
:03:03. > :03:07.going to put my name forward to be the next leader of Ukip. I have huge
:03:08. > :03:11.support across the country, not only amongst people at the top of the
:03:12. > :03:16.party in Westminster and with the MEPs, but also the grassroots. I
:03:17. > :03:21.want to be the unity candidate. Ukip needs to come together. I'm not
:03:22. > :03:25.going to gild the lily. Ukip is looking over a political cliff at
:03:26. > :03:36.the moment. It will either step four step back, and I want to tell us to
:03:37. > :03:38.step backwards. You say it faces an ex-distension or threat, which means
:03:39. > :03:40.it's possible it has no future at all. Students of political history
:03:41. > :03:48.know that political parties take a long time to get going. They can
:03:49. > :03:52.disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is facing an existential crisis. What
:03:53. > :03:57.happened over the summer has put us on a... We could be on a spiral that
:03:58. > :04:02.we can't get off. But I believe I am the man to bring the factions
:04:03. > :04:06.together, to create unity within the party, and to build on the structure
:04:07. > :04:11.and get us ready for the common challenges. Why didn't you stand
:04:12. > :04:16.last time? Because I have spent the last four or five years of my life
:04:17. > :04:20.travelling around the country. I have done more Ukip meetings than
:04:21. > :04:25.anybody else, spending a lot of time away from home. With Brexit, I felt
:04:26. > :04:30.that my job and Nigel's job was done and we could hand over to the next
:04:31. > :04:34.generation. That doesn't seem to be the case, and maybe it's time for
:04:35. > :04:38.someone who is an old hand. I'm very experienced and I know the party
:04:39. > :04:43.inside out. Maybe it's time to step in and bring the party together You
:04:44. > :04:49.told the Liverpool Echo on the night of July that you didn't wish to take
:04:50. > :04:59.on Nigel Farage, you didn't want that to happen to your family and
:05:00. > :05:03.friends. What has changed? The party is facing an existential crisis and
:05:04. > :05:09.I want to make sure that Ukip is on the pitch to keep the ball into the
:05:10. > :05:16.open net we have in politics. We have a Conservative Party who is
:05:17. > :05:20.moving toward Brexit, but we have to be there too. Why would you be
:05:21. > :05:26.better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne would be an excellent candidate I
:05:27. > :05:29.thought the 2015 manifesto was the best out of all the political
:05:30. > :05:33.parties. I would be the best candidate because of my experience.
:05:34. > :05:39.I am not part of any faction within the party. Is she? I get on well
:05:40. > :05:45.with everybody, and I believe I could be the man to bring the party
:05:46. > :05:50.together. Do you get on with Iain Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is
:05:51. > :05:56.supporting one of your rivals? Yes, I get on well with him. He is able
:05:57. > :06:00.to choose whoever he wants to be the next leader of the party. After
:06:01. > :06:05.November 28, the leadership election, we all say, the past the
:06:06. > :06:13.past. It becomes Daisy row for the new leader. We forget all that has
:06:14. > :06:16.before and move on. You won the referendum. Mrs May is adopting some
:06:17. > :06:22.of your policies, like grammar schools. What is the point of Ukip
:06:23. > :06:26.these days? Twofold. We don't have Brexit. Mrs May said she would not
:06:27. > :06:31.invoke Article 50 until the end of March, and we don't know if that
:06:32. > :06:38.will happen. We need to ensure a strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit
:06:39. > :06:41.really does mean Brexit. We have a huge opportunity in working class
:06:42. > :06:45.communities where the Labour Party no longer represents them. I believe
:06:46. > :06:49.Ukip can become the voice of working people. If you were the leader,
:06:50. > :06:54.would Ukip be a bigger threat to Labour in the north or the Tories in
:06:55. > :06:59.the South? You save Labour in the north, and people often to make that
:07:00. > :07:03.mistake. There's working class communities right across the country
:07:04. > :07:15.is. There are working-class communities in Bristol just
:07:16. > :07:19.as in Newcastle. We are second in a number of northern seats, and
:07:20. > :07:22.southern seats as well, and I believe the party can move into
:07:23. > :07:25.these communities. It can only do so if Ukip is on the pitch, and I
:07:26. > :07:31.intend to make sure that's the case. I don't think we have portrayed a
:07:32. > :07:38.good image over the summer. Is that called British understatement? A
:07:39. > :07:42.bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have
:07:43. > :07:48.to build a strong national Executive Committee. We need to ensure our
:07:49. > :07:52.branches are ready for the fight and concentrate on local elections. I've
:07:53. > :07:57.got the experience. I'm now throwing my hat into the ring, and I'm the
:07:58. > :08:02.only person who can keep Ukip in the game. What role would you give Nigel
:08:03. > :08:06.Farage, if any? I will be the candidate of compromise. I would see
:08:07. > :08:11.what Nigel wanted to do. Would you keep in the leader of the freedom
:08:12. > :08:14.and democracy group in the European Parliament? There would have to be
:08:15. > :08:21.compromise on both sides, and we would need to talk about it. I don't
:08:22. > :08:25.know what Nigel wants to do. Do you think his support, his association
:08:26. > :08:30.with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win female votes in this country?
:08:31. > :08:34.Personally, I would not have gone out and campaigned or said anything
:08:35. > :08:40.about Donald Trump, but I don't think Ukip has come out and backed
:08:41. > :08:44.Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I wouldn't have even spoken about the
:08:45. > :08:50.American election, because I think the two candidates are quite
:08:51. > :08:55.appalling. Some up for us. If you win, what would be the hallmark of
:08:56. > :09:01.your Ukip leadership? The first couple of months would be ensuring
:09:02. > :09:06.that Ukip unifies. Saying no to factions, bringing people together.
:09:07. > :09:11.Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can
:09:12. > :09:15.move forward. If we don't unify Ukip will not be around for much
:09:16. > :09:17.longer. Thanks for being with us this morning.
:09:18. > :09:20.We won't have to wait too long to find out who Ukip's
:09:21. > :09:23.new leader will be - the winner will be announced
:09:24. > :09:32.Who would be the best leader for Ukip? I think the difference between
:09:33. > :09:36.the field a few weeks ago and today is that this field is a lot
:09:37. > :09:43.stronger. Whether it's Paul or Suzanne, I think... It is hard to
:09:44. > :09:53.say, with Aaron Banks and apparently Nigel Farage hacking another
:09:54. > :10:03.candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip to be a strong force in British
:10:04. > :10:10.politics. I think the fact there is a stronger field now is good news
:10:11. > :10:16.for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst nightmare in the north of England?
:10:17. > :10:19.It is. I think the personality difference and presentational
:10:20. > :10:23.difference is interesting. Suzanne Evans is going for the Conservative
:10:24. > :10:28.county vote. There's a lot to be taken there by Ukip. He would
:10:29. > :10:35.probably be more appealing to the Labour vote. It is interesting. At
:10:36. > :10:47.the moment, pollsters say that the Ukip vote splits pretty easily
:10:48. > :10:53.between Labour and Tory. But things always collapse. When they have made
:10:54. > :10:57.inroads into Tower Hamlets and Barking, they collapse, because they
:10:58. > :11:09.fight amongst each other so much. But not always with fists! Does Ukip
:11:10. > :11:14.have a future? And who would best secure that future? It does for at
:11:15. > :11:20.least two years, until we Brexit. We have to believe that that will
:11:21. > :11:24.happen. That was an impressive pitch there from Paul, certainly as the
:11:25. > :11:29.unity candidate, after the car crash we have seen on TV screens this
:11:30. > :11:33.morning. But it doesn't go beyond May 20 19. What then? There is no
:11:34. > :11:39.point being called the United Kingdom Independence party any
:11:40. > :11:44.longer. What will happen after May 2019? If you want to hoover up votes
:11:45. > :11:49.of the back of Brexit, you need to start looking further ahead than two
:11:50. > :11:53.years. The person who wins that leadership contest is the person who
:11:54. > :11:56.will sum that up the best. We shall see.
:11:57. > :11:59.In June 2014, the group which calls itself the Islamic State in Iraq
:12:00. > :12:01.and the Levant captured Iraq's second city, Mosul.
:12:02. > :12:04.Later that month the group announced it was establishing a 'caliphate',
:12:05. > :12:06.or an Islamic state, on the territories it
:12:07. > :12:15.This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided by Iranian-backed Shia fighters
:12:16. > :12:20.Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air support, began the assault
:12:21. > :12:38.Then they spot a truck bomb from so-called Islamic State.
:12:39. > :12:42.They destroy it before it destroys them.
:12:43. > :12:45.These are the first steps in the battle for Mosul,
:12:46. > :12:50.the Northern Iraqi city IS has made its stronghold since 2014.
:12:51. > :12:55.Controlling the city of around 2 million people means
:12:56. > :12:59.that they established governance, they establish a territorial base.
:13:00. > :13:02.This is what has obsessed everyone, because with a territorial base
:13:03. > :13:07.you are capable of doing more than if you are simply an insurgency
:13:08. > :13:11.movement in the fabric of another society.
:13:12. > :13:15.It's being billed as the biggest military operation in Iraq
:13:16. > :13:19.since the war in 2003, the biggest moment in the international effort
:13:20. > :13:24.Here is how the various forces are approaching the city.
:13:25. > :13:29.Heading to Mosul from the south the elite troops of the Iraqi army.
:13:30. > :13:31.Known as the Golden division, trained and accompanied
:13:32. > :13:38.From the North, a force made up of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga,
:13:39. > :13:43.Also from the South, a militia made up of Shia fighters
:13:44. > :13:46.who have been accused of human rights abuses.
:13:47. > :13:49.British planes have bombed outlying villages, reportedly guided
:13:50. > :13:57.in by British personnel on the ground.
:13:58. > :14:00.To the North West, a corridor has been left for some
:14:01. > :14:02.of the 3000 plus IS fighters, in theory an escape route
:14:03. > :14:05.which could limit the bloodshed when fighting starts in the city.
:14:06. > :14:08.We've had 4-5 days of battle and it's taking place
:14:09. > :14:10.in the outlying villages and there have been some
:14:11. > :14:13.successes and some failures, but the momentum is building.
:14:14. > :14:16.And the real question will be when the attackers get
:14:17. > :14:20.towards the city itself, how strong are the defences?
:14:21. > :14:27.It will crack but it might crack within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks.
:14:28. > :14:32.IS has fought back, on Friday they attack sites
:14:33. > :14:34.in the city of Kirkuk, including a power station.
:14:35. > :14:36.The United Nations believes hundreds of thousands of families
:14:37. > :14:39.have been rounded up as potential human shields.
:14:40. > :14:43.The battle could be bloody, but what about when it's over?
:14:44. > :14:46.The Shia militias, the Iraqi army, the Peshmerga guerrillas,
:14:47. > :14:49.some of the Turkish elements, they all want a share of the action.
:14:50. > :14:53.They are in Mosul, not for altruistic reasons.
:14:54. > :14:56.They are there because they want to be part of whatever happens next.
:14:57. > :15:01.The biggest issue is how the Sunni majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia
:15:02. > :15:05.militias which have helped to liberate them.
:15:06. > :15:07.ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis Humphrey went to Mosul
:15:08. > :15:11.If it all seems like something from the archive, when the Middle
:15:12. > :15:14.East went up in flames and was then carved up,
:15:15. > :15:17.it is because that is what is happening in Iraq right now.
:15:18. > :15:22.National identity has been cut across by other identities such
:15:23. > :15:32.And that means that putting together a so-called nation state again
:15:33. > :15:38.Almost certainly there will be a new form of Kurdish state,
:15:39. > :15:41.almost certainly in northern Iraq at the end of this crisis,
:15:42. > :15:44.and what is happening in Mosul is a microcosm of what is happening
:15:45. > :15:48.elsewhere across the Levant which is that it is melting down.
:15:49. > :15:51.Big questions, questions that come after the battle.
:15:52. > :15:53.The coalition forces are advancing but this is just the beginning.
:15:54. > :16:03.I'm joined now by the International Development Minister Rory Stewart.
:16:04. > :16:06.In a former life he was the coalition Deputy-Governor of two
:16:07. > :16:14.provinces in Southern Iraq following the Iraq intervention of 2003.
:16:15. > :16:24.Is there any doubt that at some stage Mosul will fall to the forces
:16:25. > :16:33.of Iraq and its allies? The first thing is that war is very uncertain
:16:34. > :16:36.and there are cliches about it being the graveyard of predictions and we
:16:37. > :16:41.don't want to make confident predictions but the basic structure
:16:42. > :16:51.is that there are 30,000 Iraqi forces outside and only a few
:16:52. > :16:53.thousand Daesh fighters inside and I would say it is overwhelmingly
:16:54. > :17:01.likely that the batter will one STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the
:17:02. > :17:09.Iraqi forces. June 2014 was a great success, they
:17:10. > :17:15.took a city of over in people and they created what they tried to
:17:16. > :17:18.create a million state of 7 million people, stretching across the Iraqi
:17:19. > :17:23.Syrian border, but since then they have lost territory quite rapidly.
:17:24. > :17:28.Now they are losing the outskirts of Mosul, and that is a fundamental
:17:29. > :17:30.blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is
:17:31. > :17:37.what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that
:17:38. > :17:42.will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary
:17:43. > :17:46.Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi
:17:47. > :17:49.forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of
:17:50. > :17:56.Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which
:17:57. > :18:01.is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we
:18:02. > :18:09.want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.
:18:10. > :18:11.Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the
:18:12. > :18:17.border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of
:18:18. > :18:22.that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the
:18:23. > :18:29.coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is
:18:30. > :18:33.likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street
:18:34. > :18:38.to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we
:18:39. > :18:43.doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is
:18:44. > :18:47.very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone
:18:48. > :18:57.into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps
:18:58. > :19:03.around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, 40
:19:04. > :19:07.million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms
:19:08. > :19:14.of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response
:19:15. > :19:17.budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we
:19:18. > :19:22.are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is
:19:23. > :19:25.that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this
:19:26. > :19:32.assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You
:19:33. > :19:36.are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning
:19:37. > :19:41.since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --
:19:42. > :19:45.planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the
:19:46. > :19:48.appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we
:19:49. > :19:53.need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in
:19:54. > :19:56.place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is
:19:57. > :20:00.continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.
:20:01. > :20:04.The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big
:20:05. > :20:10.exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist
:20:11. > :20:15.magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a
:20:16. > :20:19.unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios it
:20:20. > :20:21.could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out
:20:22. > :20:27.of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is
:20:28. > :20:30.very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and
:20:31. > :20:34.keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring
:20:35. > :20:38.them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been
:20:39. > :20:42.working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we
:20:43. > :20:48.have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have
:20:49. > :20:52.worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their
:20:53. > :20:55.structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have
:20:56. > :21:00.done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the
:21:01. > :21:06.British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming
:21:07. > :21:12.that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt
:21:13. > :21:17.with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be
:21:18. > :21:23.crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need
:21:24. > :21:28.to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as
:21:29. > :21:32.bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by
:21:33. > :21:39.the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is
:21:40. > :21:42.that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they
:21:43. > :21:48.have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is
:21:49. > :21:53.stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making
:21:54. > :21:57.sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is
:21:58. > :22:02.making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK s
:22:03. > :22:07.response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that
:22:08. > :22:12.is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the
:22:13. > :22:16.front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to
:22:17. > :22:20.make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that
:22:21. > :22:27.population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing
:22:28. > :22:32.territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we
:22:33. > :22:38.think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part
:22:39. > :22:42.of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult
:22:43. > :22:48.across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United
:22:49. > :22:54.Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real
:22:55. > :22:58.danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last
:22:59. > :23:04.five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop
:23:05. > :23:09.often it does unexpected things In 2009 its predecessor had been
:23:10. > :23:13.largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it
:23:14. > :23:17.went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it
:23:18. > :23:20.holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it
:23:21. > :23:24.gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else
:23:25. > :23:29.and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They
:23:30. > :23:35.say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a
:23:36. > :23:37.big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we
:23:38. > :23:49.keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say --
:23:50. > :23:52.safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in
:23:53. > :23:59.Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen
:24:00. > :24:02.in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the
:24:03. > :24:05.conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much
:24:06. > :24:10.energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the
:24:11. > :24:15.humanitarian response in place - put so much energy. People will want
:24:16. > :24:17.to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to
:24:18. > :24:22.make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking
:24:23. > :24:25.after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they
:24:26. > :24:31.have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why
:24:32. > :24:34.our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals
:24:35. > :24:42.with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.
:24:43. > :24:49.I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.
:24:50. > :25:00.Does Labour support British participation in this offensive We
:25:01. > :25:05.fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important
:25:06. > :25:10.move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the
:25:11. > :25:14.government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State
:25:15. > :25:20.this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF
:25:21. > :25:24.pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces
:25:25. > :25:29.on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if
:25:30. > :25:36.you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your
:25:37. > :25:38.leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.
:25:39. > :25:40.What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi
:25:41. > :25:42.government, and currently supported by the British government.
:25:43. > :25:44.I did not support it when it came up.
:25:45. > :25:48.Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most
:25:49. > :25:51.of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we
:25:52. > :26:00.He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been
:26:01. > :26:04.very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have
:26:05. > :26:09.learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt
:26:10. > :26:13.sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the
:26:14. > :26:19.aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was
:26:20. > :26:26.from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told
:26:27. > :26:30.the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air
:26:31. > :26:34.strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in
:26:35. > :26:37.Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face
:26:38. > :26:42.the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.
:26:43. > :26:49.We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it
:26:50. > :26:54.is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic
:26:55. > :26:58.State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is
:26:59. > :27:04.he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the
:27:05. > :27:08.past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,
:27:09. > :27:10.both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also
:27:11. > :27:16.in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you
:27:17. > :27:20.mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress
:27:21. > :27:26.with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do
:27:27. > :27:37.you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to
:27:38. > :27:46.read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the
:27:47. > :27:54.car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems
:27:55. > :27:59.they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to
:28:00. > :28:02.pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have
:28:03. > :28:07.become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer
:28:08. > :28:13.interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to
:28:14. > :28:17.the renewal of Trident? It will We made that commitment in 2007, that
:28:18. > :28:20.is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies
:28:21. > :28:25.and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken
:28:26. > :28:28.democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference
:28:29. > :28:37.and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy
:28:38. > :28:40.Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,
:28:41. > :28:43.but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the
:28:44. > :28:50.international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very
:28:51. > :28:54.clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the
:28:55. > :28:59.next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of
:29:00. > :29:02.Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a
:29:03. > :29:07.very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are
:29:08. > :29:14.reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can t
:29:15. > :29:17.change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues
:29:18. > :29:25.related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can t
:29:26. > :29:29.change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to
:29:30. > :29:33.Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It
:29:34. > :29:36.is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato
:29:37. > :29:41.allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not
:29:42. > :29:44.let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the
:29:45. > :29:49.way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be
:29:50. > :29:54.taking them to international court over this, but we should also be
:29:55. > :29:59.strengthening sanctions, somewhat imposed over Ukraine. We try to do
:30:00. > :30:04.that, but the Italians wouldn't let us. The Italians did not want to
:30:05. > :30:08.participate in the European initiative but that doesn't stop
:30:09. > :30:14.individual countries for the Britain should step up? Yes, we should look
:30:15. > :30:19.at what is practical to impose. Thanks for joining us.
:30:20. > :30:22.Mosul is not the only major battle being waged in the Middle East.
:30:23. > :30:26.The city of Aleppo in northern Syria has seen some of the heaviest
:30:27. > :30:29.bombardment since Syria's five-year-long civil war began.
:30:30. > :30:32.This week Russian warships, in a deliberate show of power,
:30:33. > :30:36.sailed west through the English channel en route to Syria.
:30:37. > :30:39.Nato says it's Russia's "largest surface deployment" since the end
:30:40. > :30:42.of the Cold War in what is thought to be preparation
:30:43. > :30:46.for a final assault on the besieged city of Aleppo.
:30:47. > :30:50.In the city itself fighting resumed overnight -
:30:51. > :30:55.following a 3-day ceasefire - with more air strikes and heavy
:30:56. > :30:58.clashes in the city's rebel-held eastern districts.
:30:59. > :31:01.Almost 500 people have been killed and 2,000 injured
:31:02. > :31:05.since Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes,
:31:06. > :31:12.This week Theresa May condemned Vladimir Putin's involvement
:31:13. > :31:15.in Syria, accusing Moscow of being behind "sickening
:31:16. > :31:18.atrocities" in support of President Assad's regime.
:31:19. > :31:22.But European leaders are divided on how to respond and,
:31:23. > :31:25.with the United States preoccupied with domestic politics,
:31:26. > :31:29.President Putin senses this is his moment to bring the Syrian
:31:30. > :31:37.I'm joined now by the BBC's former Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent,
:31:38. > :31:45.Bridget Kendall, who is now Master of Peterhouse College in Cambridge.
:31:46. > :31:53.Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC studio again. Let me put up this
:31:54. > :32:00.satellite image of Aleppo here, to get an idea of the scale. It was the
:32:01. > :32:05.biggest city in Syria. It was the commercial capital and a huge
:32:06. > :32:09.cultural hub as well. Almost the New York of Syria, to give you an idea
:32:10. > :32:15.of its significance to the country. Let me show you now how it's been
:32:16. > :32:23.divided. The rebels are now in control of the eastern part, about
:32:24. > :32:25.eight miles long and three miles wide there, they're in purple. They
:32:26. > :32:33.are under great attacks still. Is it inevitable that that purple part
:32:34. > :32:38.falls to the regime? That is what President as Saad, the Russians and
:32:39. > :32:45.the Iranians hope. The fierce bombardments we have seen is part of
:32:46. > :32:51.that. I'm reminded very much in the Russian tactics of what happened in
:32:52. > :32:56.grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when the Russians said, a warning for all
:32:57. > :33:01.civilians to lead, and then they went ahead and they basically raised
:33:02. > :33:05.it to the ground. They are talking about Al Nusrah as being one of the
:33:06. > :33:10.rebel groups. They got rid of all of the terrorists. They talk about it
:33:11. > :33:15.being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The purpose of going in is to get rid of
:33:16. > :33:20.them. You get the civilians out and then you take it. But this isn't
:33:21. > :33:24.like Chechnya. It is much more complex. We have seen an attempt to
:33:25. > :33:29.take Aleppo before, and then there was a rebel counter offensive. It's
:33:30. > :33:33.not so certain. And there are so many different parties involved We
:33:34. > :33:37.have seen the alarm in the west of the extent of the civilian
:33:38. > :33:46.casualties. There have been rumblings in the west of, shouldn't
:33:47. > :33:49.the United States do something? Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air
:33:50. > :33:52.force? This Russian aircraft carrier steaming its way towards the Eastern
:33:53. > :34:00.Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture, both to its own people, but also to
:34:01. > :34:06.the West, to say, don't get involved in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try
:34:07. > :34:10.and stop us because we could up the ante. They have not been great
:34:11. > :34:16.visual pictures, because the aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped
:34:17. > :34:23.out, belching out smoke! If the rebel controlled area does fall it
:34:24. > :34:27.would be seen as a great victory for President as Saad and his Russian
:34:28. > :34:32.allies. What is the aim of Russia here? What would they then do, if
:34:33. > :34:37.Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan that President Putin set out in his
:34:38. > :34:42.UN speech in 2014, before Russia went into Syria. The aim is to put
:34:43. > :34:47.President Assad back in charge. President Putin said this weekend
:34:48. > :34:52.that either is Assad in Damascus, or its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in
:34:53. > :34:57.between. They want to eliminate the argument for a moderate opposition.
:34:58. > :35:05.They want to make it plain that the only way to get a stable Syria is to
:35:06. > :35:14.have Assad back in charge. Even sue argue for a rump steak lit, leaving
:35:15. > :35:18.aside what is happening with IAS. They have already said they want to
:35:19. > :35:24.have an enlarged military presence at their bases. And they have a big
:35:25. > :35:29.naval base. It is. It is a chance to push for this when he sees the West
:35:30. > :35:37.is being distracted and divided Europe and America, by elections and
:35:38. > :35:41.so on. Just before the US elections. The Americans are worried about
:35:42. > :35:46.that, Europeans are being distracted by Brexit. He can push to his
:35:47. > :35:54.maximum advantage now, before there is a new US president. If they do
:35:55. > :36:03.take that part of Aleppo, and that part of northern Syria, does Mr
:36:04. > :36:08.Putin want us to recognise, to admit, that that is now his sphere
:36:09. > :36:12.of influence? I think the rhetoric from the Russians is that they want
:36:13. > :36:17.the West to recognise that they are an equal powerful partner. It's not
:36:18. > :36:22.just the US that runs the writ in the Middle East. Russia is as
:36:23. > :36:27.important as it is. It is engaging with Saudi Arabia and has mended
:36:28. > :36:34.fences with Turkey. Syria is the place from which it can launch its
:36:35. > :36:39.message that it is a big player in the Middle East. Russia wants the
:36:40. > :36:42.West to understand that this isn't a country that was dismembered after
:36:43. > :36:47.the end of the Soviet Union and is now a week. It is back, and it is
:36:48. > :36:54.strong. That is an important message. Looking at the economy It
:36:55. > :36:59.is in recession. GDP has been falling, partly because of the price
:37:00. > :37:04.of oil. It is highly dependent on hydrocarbons, and is expected to
:37:05. > :37:09.fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how
:37:10. > :37:16.small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It
:37:17. > :37:24.is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years
:37:25. > :37:29.ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?
:37:30. > :37:35.A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a
:37:36. > :37:40.price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting
:37:41. > :37:46.the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which
:37:47. > :37:51.is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and
:37:52. > :37:58.dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.
:37:59. > :38:03.But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are
:38:04. > :38:07.supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2 17,
:38:08. > :38:12.because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for
:38:13. > :38:14.the Russian people. Thank you very much.
:38:15. > :38:27.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:28. > :38:29.Welcome to Sunday Politics South, my name's Peter Henley.
:38:30. > :38:31.On today's show, why stand in a by-election
:38:32. > :38:36.when you know you have no chance of winning?
:38:37. > :38:39.We'll be winning some of thd people who did just that
:38:40. > :38:44.parties are the glory of Brhtish democracy or a sign that thd bigger
:38:45. > :38:51.First, let's meet the two politicians who are going to be here
:38:52. > :38:57.George Hollingbery is the Conservative MP
:38:58. > :39:02.Paul Harvey is the leader of the Labour
:39:03. > :39:09.Cast your mind back to the Conservative party conference
:39:10. > :39:11.and we heard this tough talk from the prime
:39:12. > :39:15.Something else we need to do, take big, sometimes even
:39:16. > :39:17.controversial decisions abott our country's infrastructure because we
:39:18. > :39:19.need to get Britain firing in all areas again.
:39:20. > :39:23.One of those big infrastructure projects that she
:39:24. > :39:26.went on to mention specific`lly was the new runway in the south,east of
:39:27. > :39:34.The decision which has been postponed on an almost weekly basis
:39:35. > :39:36.and now we're told the government's preference between Heathrow and
:39:37. > :39:39.Gatwick will be announced ndxt week, probably Tuesday, but parli`ment
:39:40. > :39:40.might not get to vote for another year.
:39:41. > :39:45.continuity of ducking the dhsused because this is how it has been
:39:46. > :40:00.It will be portrayed anyway anyone wishes to portray it.
:40:01. > :40:06.This is a process that has gone on for some
:40:07. > :40:33.People have been ducking thhs one for 40 years and it's begun
:40:34. > :40:36.to hurt and it is absolutelx the time to make that decishon.
:40:37. > :40:38.Now, the procedure was laid out by the Prime
:40:39. > :40:40.Minister in the house, only on weapon state,
:40:41. > :40:42.at Prime minister's questions and it's very
:40:43. > :40:46.The vote of MPs won't be until next winter.
:40:47. > :40:48.The process would have been exactly the same whether
:40:49. > :40:52.Whilst the infrastructure commission looked at this, policies were
:40:53. > :40:54.developed, MPs get a vote at the end of it.
:40:55. > :40:56.This is about political sensitivities, not just planning
:40:57. > :40:59.This is about containing Boris Johnson.
:41:00. > :41:04.There's the letter from the Prime Minister
:41:05. > :41:08.to all the ministers with this odd arrangement where collectivd
:41:09. > :41:11.responsibility is suspended for a few weeks, we don't know ex`ctly how
:41:12. > :41:16.Then they have to be quiet, if they have some track record of
:41:17. > :41:18.These are Cabinet ministers who have constituencies
:41:19. > :41:22.There is no discussion, discussion about them
:41:23. > :41:24.having special rights to argue with the infrastructure comlission.
:41:25. > :41:27.They have two have had a position on this
:41:28. > :41:29.They can retell that position to the commission.
:41:30. > :41:31.Other than that, it's a perfectly sensible
:41:32. > :41:33.and rational arrangement to allow them to have represent their
:41:34. > :41:36.constituents who are going to be profoundly affected by this
:41:37. > :41:39.Not forgetting that the dechsion is on the Davis commission
:41:40. > :41:41.recommendations which are before the Cabinet
:41:42. > :41:44.I must just reemphasise, this year which we
:41:45. > :41:46.are now looking at would have happened under any scenario.
:41:47. > :41:49.It is laid down in law that this has to be
:41:50. > :41:52.consulted upon and then acthoned by the commission and then xou can
:41:53. > :41:57.And there may well be judicial reviews and it is
:41:58. > :41:58.really difficult but is it political?
:41:59. > :42:01.There was a by-election this week and you don't want sack
:42:02. > :42:04.There was a by-election this week and you don't want -- Zac
:42:05. > :42:06.Goldsmith resigning in Richlond over the issue of Heathrow creathng
:42:07. > :42:08.another by-election, creating another vote.
:42:09. > :42:10.The truth of the matter is, on these infrastructure issues, as bhg as
:42:11. > :42:13.this is for both Gatwick and Heathrow, for those comlunities
:42:14. > :42:15.affected and constantly livhng with this and for the business community
:42:16. > :42:17.that is desperate for a decision to be made
:42:18. > :42:19.so that we can deal with the
:42:20. > :42:22.issues presented by both options, there has to be a proper discussion,
:42:23. > :42:25.there has to be a vote and there has to be a decision made.
:42:26. > :42:28.Somebody, somewhere, has to make the responsibility for this huge
:42:29. > :42:34.It's not good for the image of politics.
:42:35. > :42:41.That is entirely down to thd Cabinet committee on Tuesday.
:42:42. > :42:48.Somebody who is involved even a tiny bit in this
:42:49. > :42:50.is a member of Parliament shouldn't takd risks
:42:51. > :42:54.There is a clear decision to be made by the Cabinet
:42:55. > :42:56.committee and the decision has not been made.
:42:57. > :43:00.The letter says that ministers who are opposed are
:43:01. > :43:05.Well, there are no ministers opposed, to Gatwick, who expressed a
:43:06. > :43:11.It only applies to Boris Johnson and Justine Greening.
:43:12. > :43:13.We're talking here about process and whether it's the right
:43:14. > :43:16.Whether we should build airport capacity.
:43:17. > :43:19.Those particular Cabinet ministers, if it turns out to be a
:43:20. > :43:22.Heathrow decision, are going to need to be able to...
:43:23. > :43:24.You've just got to make surd that the rules are there
:43:25. > :43:27.so that everyone knows when that decision is taken exactly what
:43:28. > :43:31.The fact is, within a year, we are going to know exactlx where
:43:32. > :43:33.we're going whatever decision is made.
:43:34. > :43:36.Where it is going to be built, when, and over what period.
:43:37. > :43:38.That is a huge change from last 40 years.
:43:39. > :43:40.Not quite know ifs, no buts but we will be
:43:41. > :43:42.getting their next week. We hope.
:43:43. > :43:44.So, the Witney by-election to replace former Prime Ministdr David
:43:45. > :43:48.The probably unsurprising fact is that the Tories
:43:49. > :43:50.held on, although with a majority slashed from 25,000 to 5000.
:43:51. > :43:52.Perhaps surprising is that the Liberal
:43:53. > :43:58.Increasing their share of the vote by 23%.
:43:59. > :44:01.Joining us from our Oxfordshire studio is the party's one rdmaining
:44:02. > :44:03.MEP, I always say this, don't I, Catherine?
:44:04. > :44:13.Basically, you're back to where you were before
:44:14. > :44:18.the Prime Minister held this seat, plus a few extra
:44:19. > :44:21.for all the trees you cut down to make all
:44:22. > :44:25.This was a huge boost for the Lib Dems.
:44:26. > :44:28.A 20% gain in the vote, where we were fourth placed
:44:29. > :44:36.This was the Conservatives' tenth most safe seat and
:44:37. > :44:41.You know, we've had hundreds of volunteers coming across
:44:42. > :44:45.the country to help us out here in Witney and it was a great result
:44:46. > :44:50.But it wasn't a referendum on Brexit, which
:44:51. > :44:53.is how it is being spun now over the weekend, isn't it?
:44:54. > :44:59.There's lots of Remainers and then it just became
:45:00. > :45:04.Well, it's a about all sorts of issues, national issues
:45:05. > :45:10.Liz has been campaigning to save a health centre,
:45:11. > :45:13.it's about jobs, trade, of course, it's about Brexit which goes through
:45:14. > :45:17.Do you really believe that the people who pushed xou into
:45:18. > :45:20.that second place were saying, we don't want to leave the DU.
:45:21. > :45:22.We don't want the Conservathves we don't want Labour.
:45:23. > :45:29.Now, the official opposition didn't increase their vote `t all.
:45:30. > :45:35.This is Her Majesty's official opposition.
:45:36. > :45:37.They should be the ones challenging the government,
:45:38. > :45:43.nearly mid-term. And they didn't.
:45:44. > :45:46.We actually had a really bad general election last time and we
:45:47. > :45:50.But this result on Thursday night shows that
:45:51. > :45:55.We are winning council by-elections up and
:45:56. > :46:02.We still stand for the free, open and tolerant country.
:46:03. > :46:06.We are pro-European party so whatever people vote for
:46:07. > :46:13.Do you think that the speaker should give you
:46:14. > :46:20.It would be nice if we got our due deserves.
:46:21. > :46:26.They keep asking why we are not more on the
:46:27. > :46:29.media and why don't we get called more in the House of Commons.
:46:30. > :46:32.That's not something I can deal with but,
:46:33. > :46:35.perhaps, this will send a mdssage to all those who report polhtical
:46:36. > :46:39.parties, the Lib Dems are still here.
:46:40. > :46:43.We are a serious political party we stand for many thousands
:46:44. > :46:50.of people up and down the country, including those people in Whtney.
:46:51. > :46:53.Paul Harvey, do they have backing as the opposition?
:46:54. > :46:55.The truth of the opposition is that the Labour vote
:46:56. > :47:03.In Witney, we have tremendotsly good councillors.
:47:04. > :47:04.Labour councillors on west Oxfordshire district Council
:47:05. > :47:07.are doing an awful lot of work for those communities.
:47:08. > :47:08.Duncan Enright has been there 20 years.
:47:09. > :47:13.Ad excellent local candidatd that meant a lot of
:47:14. > :47:18.Laura Price, our local county council there.
:47:19. > :47:19.Where we have Labour councillors in these constituencies,
:47:20. > :47:36.The Labour vote came out in those areas.
:47:37. > :47:38.There was a high-profile Grden debate, Larry Sanders, brother of
:47:39. > :47:42.Altogether, you split the vote between the three of you.
:47:43. > :47:45.The truth of the matter is, the Liberal
:47:46. > :47:48.They used to boast about taking the seats.
:47:49. > :47:52.The Conservatives also lost a significant amount of the vote,
:47:53. > :47:56.There is a truth in this matter for all three parties.
:47:57. > :47:58.You probably picked up some Ukip votes.
:47:59. > :48:04.You've run half of the by-election campaigns in
:48:05. > :48:11.You've got to look at percentages because
:48:12. > :48:17.Not a bad turn out for a by-election.
:48:18. > :48:19.Not bad. 45% of the vote.
:48:20. > :48:21.It's where Douglas Hurd started it's where David Cameron
:48:22. > :48:24.A brand-new local candidate, he started at exactly
:48:25. > :48:27.45%. The Liberals scored 30%.
:48:28. > :48:30.So, is there much to see here? Not a lot.
:48:31. > :48:32.Let me just say that anybodx who says that the Liberals
:48:33. > :48:35.didn't do pretty well there is talking through thdir head.
:48:36. > :48:37.Jeremy Corbyn's Labour did well, didn't they?
:48:38. > :48:43.Labour Party has faced nationally at the moment, I think it w`s a
:48:44. > :48:44.reasonably creditable performance for them to.
:48:45. > :48:48.Vea no one can say the Liberals didn't do reasonably well.
:48:49. > :48:53.They did. They fought incredibly hard.
:48:54. > :48:56.The fact is, the Conservative party still won that seat very easily
:48:57. > :49:01.The idea that it is not a s`fe seat still, all I can say is
:49:02. > :49:04.I'd love their targeting strategy to maintain that illusion.
:49:05. > :49:06.So, you're going to go for all the safe seats
:49:07. > :49:09.We've just been talking about Heathrow.
:49:10. > :49:11.If Heathrow gets the go-ahe`d, then there's going to be Richmond Park.
:49:12. > :49:15.It's a warm up for Richmond, isn't it?
:49:16. > :49:18.It used to be a Lib Dem seat, now, you know, whether that's why
:49:19. > :49:25.But the Lib Dems haven't gone away. We are still here.
:49:26. > :49:28.We are still working hard for the people of this country.
:49:29. > :49:31.You're going to be worried about that.
:49:32. > :49:35.You must be doing work already in Richmond?
:49:36. > :49:37.Who knows if it's going to be Heathrow or Gatwick?
:49:38. > :49:40.You know so little. Anyway...
:49:41. > :49:43.Now, there were 14 candidatds standing in Witney.
:49:44. > :49:52.Why do people from smaller political parties put themselves forw`rd?
:49:53. > :49:54.Our reporter spent some timd in Witney during the campaign
:49:55. > :50:08.The HS2 project is the wrong project.
:50:09. > :50:10.Many people feel their vote doesn't count.
:50:11. > :50:17.These are just a handful of the candidates that stood
:50:18. > :50:24.Usually, elections are dominated by the big parties.
:50:25. > :50:25.The swing between them, the shock losses,
:50:26. > :50:29.But, behind all that, are the smaller
:50:30. > :50:33.parties and the independent candidates who are going out
:50:34. > :50:43.But with our first past the post system, is it all a bit hopdless?
:50:44. > :50:46.I love having outsiders in, it shows Witney people have got
:50:47. > :50:51.they've not got a hope of getting in.
:50:52. > :50:55.I think if they want to stand, if they have a cause, then H don't
:50:56. > :51:02.There's no point because thdy won't ever get elected.
:51:03. > :51:04.Yes, definitely. People should have their sax.
:51:05. > :51:06.It is a democracy. That's what it's for.
:51:07. > :51:12.One such candidate who is using his democratic
:51:13. > :51:15.right is based here, a caravan park just outside
:51:16. > :51:22.Frankie! Welcome to the eccentric party.
:51:23. > :51:26.Lord Toby Jug is now the leader of the eccentric
:51:27. > :51:29.party of Great Britain after he defected from the monster raving
:51:30. > :51:32.He stood in five general elections and over 30 local
:51:33. > :51:36.It's important because, at the end of the day, it's our
:51:37. > :51:40.We are the only country that actually
:51:41. > :51:42.allows that and a lot of fringe candidates stand.
:51:43. > :51:45.It's not a case of winning, it's a case of putting your
:51:46. > :51:58.V eccentric party of Great Britain has unique policies. All swhmming
:51:59. > :52:03.pools will be drained once ` week for nonswimmers. They want taller
:52:04. > :52:08.buildings for higher educathons But he says he has serious reasons for
:52:09. > :52:17.campaigning. We want to makd sure that people have the right to vote.
:52:18. > :52:23.We are not a joke. We are gdtting a protest vote. The other parties are
:52:24. > :52:28.the joke parties. Standing `s a candidate is no joke. Polithcal
:52:29. > :52:34.engagement is on the rise. Lore than 100 parties registered sincd the
:52:35. > :52:39.start of 2015. Democracy coles at a price. You have to put down a ? 00
:52:40. > :52:45.deposit which you don't get back unless you get 5% of the vote.
:52:46. > :52:49.Doctor Helen Salisbury from the National health action partx feels
:52:50. > :52:54.it is important to get involved I was just really worried that the
:52:55. > :53:02.thing that we value most, the care that people receive, which hs all
:53:03. > :53:06.about what they need, not what they can pay for, this fundament`l
:53:07. > :53:11.principle, was going to get lost. There are ways of sending mdssages.
:53:12. > :53:16.People say you could put a donkey in a blue jacket and it would be
:53:17. > :53:20.elected in that constituencx because it has always been Tory. Th`t
:53:21. > :53:28.doesn't mean it isn't an extremely good way of making your voice heard.
:53:29. > :53:35.For both Lord Toby Jug and Helen Salisbury it is not getting the vote
:53:36. > :53:41.that is the obstacle. Ukip got million votes. That resulted in one
:53:42. > :53:43.MP. It's totally wrong. I actually believe in proportional
:53:44. > :53:50.representation. It is the w`y forward. It's hard for small parties
:53:51. > :53:55.because of the system that we have. If we had proportional
:53:56. > :53:58.representation it would be dasier but, interestingly, the last general
:53:59. > :54:09.election was the first time we stood candidates and we did let bdtter
:54:10. > :54:15.than any other party on our first outing than any other party. We are
:54:16. > :54:22.actually not doing badly. It may not be a win but it is not going to stop
:54:23. > :54:27.these candidates to stop thdir struggle from getting their message
:54:28. > :54:34.out. Some serious issues thdre. Proportional representation. Also,
:54:35. > :54:41.the NHS party. You don't nedd an NHS party if Labour was doing its job
:54:42. > :54:45.properly. It is terribly good that we have a healthy democracy with
:54:46. > :54:52.these parties standing. Look at what is happening in America with its
:54:53. > :54:56.democracy. By-elections are a snapshot and give smaller p`rties an
:54:57. > :55:02.opportunity to make themselves heard. It's an important thhng. In
:55:03. > :55:08.Batley and spend, we saw thd far right, the hard right, exposed and
:55:09. > :55:12.are seen for what they really are. There is an important site to
:55:13. > :55:16.by-elections, our democracy where some of these smaller partids which
:55:17. > :55:20.are quite objectionable are exposed to scrutiny in a way that they get
:55:21. > :55:25.challenged. I thought it was disgraceful that they jeered and
:55:26. > :55:34.heckled Tracy Bray been as she won the seat. Somehow, the publhc sees a
:55:35. > :55:39.stitch up sometimes between major parties and the voting systdm seems
:55:40. > :55:45.to get that going with safe seats. I think if you are going to stand as
:55:46. > :55:53.somebody with a proper manifesto on a particular issue, it is a cheap
:55:54. > :55:58.way of getting decent publicity 500 quid, you are getting a lot of bang
:55:59. > :56:12.for your buck if you get coverage in the local papers. The guys from the
:56:13. > :56:18.Eccentric party, and so on, why shouldn't they? They would do worse
:56:19. > :56:24.under proportional representation because if the vote mattered, people
:56:25. > :56:29.wouldn't vote for them. The NHS action party, we should takd them
:56:30. > :56:34.seriously, shouldn't we? Thdy are from the medical profession. If they
:56:35. > :56:40.are campaigning on points that people can understand, I don't think
:56:41. > :56:44.they will continue to do better because you need policies on more
:56:45. > :56:49.than just one issue but the NHS is incredibly important to most people
:56:50. > :56:53.and both major parties take it seriously but it is something that
:56:54. > :56:58.puts the public on their mettle They have a fair point to m`ke. They
:56:59. > :57:05.are passionate about their politics and the NHS. I can see no good
:57:06. > :57:11.reason to say it isn't a good thing. It's a healthy sign of our
:57:12. > :57:21.democracy. With Ukip, you t`ke away the main point they are there for.
:57:22. > :57:26.Have they disappeared? They haven't been contesting by-elections. They
:57:27. > :57:32.are losing councillors. Thehr ideas have been absorbed by the other
:57:33. > :57:35.parties? Would you agree? To some extent. It depends what you think
:57:36. > :57:41.people voted Ukip around thd country. Some people voted on the
:57:42. > :57:46.European issue. Some people are voting because they feel
:57:47. > :57:50.dispossessed. They allocate themselves in various ways. Theresa
:57:51. > :57:56.May has captured a lot of pdople who feel left out. It's also wh`t she
:57:57. > :58:11.really cares about. A lot of Tories returning home. Now our regtlar
:58:12. > :58:17.round-up in 60 seconds. Womdn council workers have been m`rching
:58:18. > :58:20.for equal pay in breading. They say the council has been slower
:58:21. > :58:26.compensation after overpaying traditional male jobs. One person
:58:27. > :58:33.has died, two others are seriously ill still waiting. Teachers present
:58:34. > :58:43.a petition at Downing Street of their pupils complaints. Historian
:58:44. > :58:51.Dan Snow is campaigning to keep rare Roman coins near Liddington where
:58:52. > :58:58.the Forge was found. They don't need to be in the British Museum. A ban
:58:59. > :59:10.on mushroom foraging, is it against ancient custom? A charity offering
:59:11. > :59:13.rooms for bed blocking is pdrplexed it hasn't received requests from
:59:14. > :59:18.local health authorities. It says it has rooms ready to go. Thosd
:59:19. > :59:24.facilities not been used but the NHS is under huge pressure. What do we
:59:25. > :59:29.need? Just more money or crdative solutions? Money is a part of it.
:59:30. > :59:39.You cannot deny that the cuts are serious. Because there is so much
:59:40. > :59:43.more demand. We mustn't forget the overlap with social services. There
:59:44. > :59:49.are issues across the whole spectrum of health care and care that are
:59:50. > :59:54.really pressing. Some of thd most vulnerable people in the colmunity
:59:55. > :00:00.are being affected. Bed blocking is a serious financial issue
:00:01. > :00:03.particularly when local councils can't provide care in the community
:00:04. > :00:11.to support people coming out of hospital with good, solid c`re
:00:12. > :00:18.packages. Theresa May has s`id that you are the party of the NHS. Simon
:00:19. > :00:26.Stephens said that if he can have the plan to put a restructuring
:00:27. > :00:36.package together, he would but he needed funding. We have said, yes.
:00:37. > :00:42.He says it is not enough. Hd came to the government, he gave as the plan.
:00:43. > :00:46.He said he could do it. It's now down to local NHS trusts to put
:00:47. > :00:52.their heads together and work out how they can deliver servicds more
:00:53. > :00:58.efficiently. But Paul makes a good point, the interaction with social
:00:59. > :01:02.services is key. We have to see local services do more together It
:01:03. > :01:05.has to come together. There has to be more done in that field hf we are
:01:06. > :01:12.going to solve this terribld problem. Both of you, thank you for
:01:13. > :01:13.coming in and joining us today. That's all from ours. Now it's back
:01:14. > :01:18.to Andrew. Goodbye. So, Brexit, airports,
:01:19. > :01:49.Calais and the chances With what Rory Stewart was saying
:01:50. > :01:52.there, it is clear that Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq
:01:53. > :01:59.now, and could come under pressure in Syria as well. It used to control
:02:00. > :02:08.a whole swathe of the coast of Libya, and is now down to a small
:02:09. > :02:11.area of Sirte in Libya. But curiously, it could make them more
:02:12. > :02:16.dangerous here if they are being driven out of the Maghreb and the
:02:17. > :02:21.Levant, they could be more dangerous here. Discuss. That was a very
:02:22. > :02:26.interesting admission from a government minister, of all people,
:02:27. > :02:33.and a well-informed one. Chasing Isis around the Middle East is
:02:34. > :02:36.about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda around Afghanistan and Pakistan You
:02:37. > :02:46.smash them somewhere, and they pop up somewhere else. He is right to
:02:47. > :02:57.warn that these guys will go somewhere. And it may well be, in
:02:58. > :03:02.Sirte, for example, across the magic oration -- across the Mediterranean
:03:03. > :03:06.into Italy. A lot of the foreign fighters in Mosul have already gone,
:03:07. > :03:14.we heard, which raises the question, to where? I think it is quite right
:03:15. > :03:19.for government ministers to warn that it might have repercussions
:03:20. > :03:24.here. We have been involved in this, with full public consent, as far as
:03:25. > :03:28.we can tell. If it doesn't happen, if there are horrors and outrages
:03:29. > :03:35.here and in the rest of Europe, that's fine. If it does happen, at
:03:36. > :03:43.least the government is prepared. We knew surprised about how categorical
:03:44. > :03:49.Nia Griffith was? She was categorical about support for the
:03:50. > :03:56.Allied action in Iraq, and categorical about Russia. So much so
:03:57. > :04:00.that perhaps written should take tougher sanctions on its own, even
:04:01. > :04:05.if it can't get the Europeans to fall in line. I found that
:04:06. > :04:10.interesting. I was surprised by that. Tom may be right that Rory
:04:11. > :04:15.said more than perhaps he was intending, but I thought that some
:04:16. > :04:20.of what she said sounded politically imprudent in the current context of
:04:21. > :04:24.the Labour Party. I'm not sure she cleared those lines with the Labour
:04:25. > :04:30.office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy are in the same place about it. I'm
:04:31. > :04:33.not sure there is that much leadership. People at the moment get
:04:34. > :04:38.out there and say what they think it's right for the party. She
:04:39. > :04:44.sounded dead right to me. Whether it is ill-advised or not, people should
:04:45. > :04:50.answer... I want to move on, because Brexit never goes away. This week we
:04:51. > :04:54.saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow Foreign Secretary. He is going to be
:04:55. > :04:58.the chair of the select committee in the Commons which will monitor the
:04:59. > :05:01.Department for Brexit. All sorts of people will be coming to give
:05:02. > :05:04.testimony and so one. Let's hear what he told Andrew Marr.
:05:05. > :05:08.I think it will be very important for the government to indicate that
:05:09. > :05:11.if it is not possible within the two years provided for by Article 5
:05:12. > :05:13.to negotiate both our withdrawal agreement and a new trading
:05:14. > :05:15.relationship, market access, including for services,
:05:16. > :05:17.80% of our economy, million jobs, in financial services,
:05:18. > :05:20.that it should tell the House of Commons that it will seek
:05:21. > :05:26.a transitional arrangement with the European Union.
:05:27. > :05:34.If the deal is not done at the end of the two-year Article 50 process,
:05:35. > :05:40.would the government go for an interim agreement, or would it fall
:05:41. > :05:45.back on WTO, World Trade Organisation, Rawls? My
:05:46. > :05:48.understanding is the article 15 negotiation doesn't specifically
:05:49. > :05:53.include what Britain's future trading relationship with the EU
:05:54. > :05:58.would be. It is perfectly possible that Article 50 could be triggered,
:05:59. > :06:03.and after two years we don't have a trade deal, but the trade deal
:06:04. > :06:14.negotiations are ongoing when we are outside the EU. But the trade deal
:06:15. > :06:16.negotiations are the most important thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover
:06:17. > :06:19.it, what is it about? Absolutely essential. The trade deal with
:06:20. > :06:27.Canada has taken nine years, and now it looks like it is fading, because
:06:28. > :06:36.of the Walloons. Just one small part of the country. If you cannot do a
:06:37. > :06:39.free-trade deal with Canada, a progressive, social Democratic
:06:40. > :06:44.Canada, who can the EU do a trade deal with? You would think it would
:06:45. > :06:47.be easy with us, because we have all of the level playing field
:06:48. > :06:53.agreements in place. You would hope it would be easier, but it may not
:06:54. > :06:58.be, because in the end, it will hinge on the single market and if we
:06:59. > :07:07.are in or out. If we are in, can we have a small break on immigration?
:07:08. > :07:09.It looks like not. What is interesting about the opinion polls
:07:10. > :07:13.is, in the last two opinion polls there was a significant change in
:07:14. > :07:18.public opinion, where people are now saying they think that actually
:07:19. > :07:22.trade, the economy, the single market is more important than
:07:23. > :07:27.immigration. If it is really true, as the observer is reporting today,
:07:28. > :07:31.that banks are on the move, and in a year's time there could be a
:07:32. > :07:36.significant collapse in the income we get from finance, the income that
:07:37. > :07:47.the Treasury gets, then public opinion might change. They may say,
:07:48. > :07:49.we don't want more immigration, but this isn't a price worth paying
:07:50. > :07:57.Everything tends to be seen through the Brexit lens at the moment.
:07:58. > :08:01.Things are not always as they seem. The Canadian- EU free trade
:08:02. > :08:06.agreement was about increasing free trade between the EU and Canada and
:08:07. > :08:10.therefore subject to the ratification of all members. Any
:08:11. > :08:15.deal we do will not give us the same access we have at the moment. The
:08:16. > :08:22.question is, how much will it be diminished? It may not be subject to
:08:23. > :08:24.the same ratification process. Absolutely right. Another
:08:25. > :08:31.unbelievably technical point that we still don't know is, if we can get
:08:32. > :08:35.this free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as our Brexit talks
:08:36. > :08:44.and deal, the divorce deal as well as the remarriage deal, then one
:08:45. > :08:52.gets signed off by QM V. The trade deal may still need all 28, all 27,
:08:53. > :08:59.including the people from the Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority
:09:00. > :09:02.of parliament. This is exactly why Theresa May would like the
:09:03. > :09:06.transitional deal to push this one deeper. I was surprised to hear
:09:07. > :09:11.Hilary Benn pushing this line this morning. The remainers have been all
:09:12. > :09:16.over the place. They wanted a vote after Article 50 had been triggered
:09:17. > :09:24.about the deal. Then they wanted a vote before Article 50. Now they are
:09:25. > :09:28.talking about a vote before article Article 50 is triggered about a
:09:29. > :09:33.trade deal. They need to make up their minds about what it is they
:09:34. > :09:39.are pushing for, and what their best hope of obstructing Brexit is, and
:09:40. > :09:44.stick with it. Something else we see through the Brexit lens, which isn't
:09:45. > :09:48.always helpful, is Calais. The French bulldozers will move in
:09:49. > :09:53.tomorrow. We will see some pretty disturbing scenes on the TV. We will
:09:54. > :09:57.see some horrible scenes. The government has handled this very
:09:58. > :10:03.badly. Having passed an amendment in April saying we would take something
:10:04. > :10:06.like 3000 children, a lot of those children have disappeared. Save the
:10:07. > :10:10.Children, one of the charities there, are very worried that people
:10:11. > :10:18.traffickers have been in there, and a lot of those children have
:10:19. > :10:22.vanished. We haven't sent social workers in. No preparations have
:10:23. > :10:29.been made what ever. You are raising an interesting point. We don't know
:10:30. > :10:33.how many we are meant to be taking. The huge argument has arisen over
:10:34. > :10:40.what the age is of some of the ones coming in. Is this another problem
:10:41. > :10:45.for the Home Office? To some extent. Didn't Theresa May 's too well to
:10:46. > :10:49.survive six weeks of this? Amber Rudd has been there for three
:10:50. > :10:53.months. It is clear that the Home Office didn't prepare for this. They
:10:54. > :11:01.didn't prepare for the age verification or when it will go It
:11:02. > :11:07.needs to be an perfect. We don't know how many we will take, because
:11:08. > :11:11.the Home Office will not say. I want to talk about airport capacity, but
:11:12. > :11:16.I won't, because I don't think we have anything to say about it until
:11:17. > :11:21.the statement on Tuesday from Transport Minister Grayling. When
:11:22. > :11:24.you look at the polls and see the decision on airport runway expansion
:11:25. > :11:29.being kicked into the long grass for a year, are we heading for an early
:11:30. > :11:34.election next year or not? I think Theresa May will do everything she
:11:35. > :11:41.can to avoid it. If there is an election before 2020, it is bound to
:11:42. > :11:44.be about Europe, and that is a much harder case for her to win than just
:11:45. > :11:49.a question of who is the best Prime Minister. She will have a tough
:11:50. > :11:54.time, because it will be a general election about in or out of the
:11:55. > :11:59.single market. Half of her party will peel away. How do she conduct a
:12:00. > :12:04.general election when the likes of Anna Soubry will not stand on the
:12:05. > :12:14.same platform? It will be difficult. But she may reach such a stalemate
:12:15. > :12:17.that she just calls one. No general election next year because it will
:12:18. > :12:21.split the Tory party. There will be won in 2019 when she cannot get
:12:22. > :12:25.Brexit through the House of Commons. You really can have too much of a
:12:26. > :12:30.good thing. I just want to show a little clip of the former Shadow
:12:31. > :12:34.Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly last night. Let's just watch this.
:12:35. > :12:46.There he is. Where is the hand? That is the
:12:47. > :12:54.worrying bit! We will no longer be saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair
:12:55. > :12:58.of hands! Can we agree on that? Remarkable that he was once the man
:12:59. > :13:06.most feared by David Cameron! Labour leader 2021. He has hit popular
:13:07. > :13:12.culture in the way that many few politicians do. Charm, gusto,
:13:13. > :13:19.bravery, no worries about being embarrassed. All the things that you
:13:20. > :13:22.don't like about being a politician. We have run out of time. You can get
:13:23. > :13:25.it on social media. Jo Coburn will be back
:13:26. > :13:27.with the Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here next
:13:28. > :13:31.Sunday at the same time. Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:32. > :14:04.it's the Sunday Politics. Everyone's living these
:14:05. > :14:07.amazing lives, You're like a...
:14:08. > :14:17.Different person? Delve deeper.
:14:18. > :14:27.Ordinary Lives continues... They have something on me
:14:28. > :14:28.that I can actually remember. They have something on me
:14:29. > :14:32.that I can actually remember. The final chapter between
:14:33. > :14:37.Gibson and Spector.