:00:33. > :00:38.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:39. > :00:42.David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,
:00:43. > :00:45.ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process
:00:46. > :00:50.We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.
:00:51. > :00:53.Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise
:00:54. > :01:01.But how should we tax those who work for themselves?
:01:02. > :01:03.And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered
:01:04. > :01:14.We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.
:01:15. > :01:19.In the south, should the rights of EU nationals living in the UK be
:01:20. > :01:29.guaranteed? We meet those who want And joining me for all of that,
:01:30. > :01:31.three self-employed journalists who definitely don't
:01:32. > :01:35.deserve a tax break. It's Steve Richards,
:01:36. > :01:36.Julia Hartley-Brewer They'll be tweeting throughout
:01:37. > :01:40.the programme with all the carefree abandon of Katie Hopkins before
:01:41. > :01:48.a libel trial. BBC lawyers have suddenly got
:01:49. > :01:51.nervous! So first today, the government
:01:52. > :01:53.is gearing up to trigger Article 50, perhaps in the next 48 hours,
:01:54. > :01:56.and start negotiating Britain's Much has been written
:01:57. > :01:59.about the prospect of the Commons getting a "meaningful vote"
:02:00. > :02:02.on the deal Britain negotiates. Brexit Secretary David Davis
:02:03. > :02:04.was on the Andrew Marr programme earlier this morning
:02:05. > :02:06.and he was asked what happens Well, that is what is called
:02:07. > :02:17.the most favoured nation status deal There we go out, as it
:02:18. > :02:21.were, on WTO rules. That is why of course we do
:02:22. > :02:24.the contingency planning, to make The British people decided
:02:25. > :02:32.on June the 23rd last year My job, and the job
:02:33. > :02:37.of the government, is to make the terms on which that happens
:02:38. > :02:50.as beneficial as possible. There we have it, clearly, either
:02:51. > :02:57.Parliament votes for the deal when it is done or it out on World Trade
:02:58. > :02:58.Organisation rules. That's what the government means by a meaningful
:02:59. > :03:05.vote. I think we get over obsessed about
:03:06. > :03:09.whether there will be a legal right for Parliament to have a vote. If
:03:10. > :03:12.there is no deal or a bad deal, I think it would be politically
:03:13. > :03:15.impossible for the government to reject Parliament's desire for a
:03:16. > :03:19.vote because the atmosphere of politics will be completely
:03:20. > :03:23.different by then. I take David Davies seriously. Within Whitehall
:03:24. > :03:27.he has acquired a reputation as being the most conscientious and
:03:28. > :03:31.details sadly... And well briefed. Absolutely and well travelled in
:03:32. > :03:34.terms of European capitals of the three Brexit ministers. It is quite
:03:35. > :03:37.telling he said what he did and it is quite telling that within
:03:38. > :03:43.cabinet, two weeks ago he was floating the idea of no deal at all.
:03:44. > :03:46.Being if not the central estimate than a completely plausible
:03:47. > :03:52.eventuality. It is interesting. I would suggest the prospect of no
:03:53. > :03:56.deal is moving up the agenda. It is still less likely than more likely
:03:57. > :04:00.to happen. But it's no longer a kind of long tail way out there in the
:04:01. > :04:03.distance. Planning for no deal is the same as having contents
:04:04. > :04:05.insurance or travel insurance, plan for the worse case scenarios are
:04:06. > :04:11.prepared it happens. Even the worst case scenario, it's not that bad.
:04:12. > :04:16.Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the EU, four members of the G20
:04:17. > :04:20.economies are successful members of the EU. The rest aren't and don't
:04:21. > :04:24.have trade deals but somehow these countries are prospering. They are
:04:25. > :04:28.growing at a higher rate. You are not frightened? Not remotely. We are
:04:29. > :04:31.obsessed with what we get from the EU and the key thing we get from
:04:32. > :04:35.leaving the EU is not the deal but the other deals we can finally make
:04:36. > :04:38.with other trading partners. They have higher growth than virtually
:04:39. > :04:41.every other EU country apart from Germany. It is sensible as a
:04:42. > :04:46.negotiating position for the government to say if there is no
:04:47. > :04:50.deal, we will accept there is no deal. We're not frightened of no
:04:51. > :04:54.deal. It was clear from what David Davies was saying that there will be
:04:55. > :04:58.a vote in parliament at the end of the process but there won't be a
:04:59. > :05:03.third option to send the government back to try to get a better deal. It
:05:04. > :05:08.is either the deal or we leave without a deal. In reality, that
:05:09. > :05:11.third option will be there. We don't know yet whether there will be a
:05:12. > :05:17.majority for the deal if they get one. What we do know now is that
:05:18. > :05:22.there isn't a majority in the Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are
:05:23. > :05:27.absolutely clear that no deal is worth then a bad deal. I've heard
:05:28. > :05:32.enough Tory MPs say the same thing. But they wouldn't get no deal
:05:33. > :05:39.through. When it comes to this vote, if whatever deal is rejected, there
:05:40. > :05:42.will then be, one way or another, the third option raised of go back
:05:43. > :05:47.again. But who gets to decide what is a bad deal? The British people
:05:48. > :05:50.will have a different idea than the two thirds of the Remain supporting
:05:51. > :05:57.MPs in the Commons. In terms of the vote, the Commons. Surely, if the
:05:58. > :06:03.Commons, which is what matters here, if the Commons were to vote against
:06:04. > :06:07.the deal as negotiated by the government, surely that would
:06:08. > :06:11.trigger a general election? If the government had recommended the deal,
:06:12. > :06:14.surely the government would then, if it still felt strongly about the
:06:15. > :06:20.deal, if the other 27 had said, we're not negotiating, extending it,
:06:21. > :06:24.it would in effect become a second referendum on the deal. In effect it
:06:25. > :06:27.would be a no-confidence vote in the government. You've got to assume
:06:28. > :06:30.that unless something massively changes in the opposition before
:06:31. > :06:35.then, the government would feel fairly confident about a general
:06:36. > :06:39.election on those terms. Unless the deal is hideously bad and obviously
:06:40. > :06:42.basso every vote in the country... The prior minister said if it is
:06:43. > :06:48.that bad she would have rather no deal. So that eventuality arrives.
:06:49. > :06:52.-- the Prime Minister has said. Not a second referendum general election
:06:53. > :06:55.in two years' time. Don't put any holidays for! LAUGHTER
:06:56. > :06:58.-- don't look any. So the Brexit bill looks likely
:06:59. > :07:00.to clear Parliament this week. That depends on the number
:07:01. > :07:04.of Conservative MPs who are prepared to vote against their government
:07:05. > :07:06.on two key issues. Theresa May could be
:07:07. > :07:10.in negotiations with our European partners within days,
:07:11. > :07:12.but there may be some wheeler-dealings she has to do
:07:13. > :07:14.with her own MPs, too. Cast your mind back
:07:15. > :07:18.to the beginning of month. The bill to trigger Article
:07:19. > :07:20.50 passed comfortably But three Conservatives voted
:07:21. > :07:29.for Labour's amendments to ensure the rights of EU citizens already
:07:30. > :07:33.in the UK. Seven Tory MPs voted to force
:07:34. > :07:36.the government to give Parliament a say on the deal struck with the EU
:07:37. > :07:41.before it's finalised. But remember those numbers,
:07:42. > :07:45.they're important. On the issue of a meaningful vote
:07:46. > :07:49.on a deal, I'm told there might have been more rebels had it not been
:07:50. > :07:51.for this assurance from I can confirm that the government
:07:52. > :07:57.will bring forward a motion on the final agreement to be
:07:58. > :07:59.approved by both Houses And we expect, and intend,
:08:00. > :08:04.that this will happen before the European Parliament debates
:08:05. > :08:10.and votes on the final agreement. When the government
:08:11. > :08:16.was criticised for reeling back from when and what it would offer
:08:17. > :08:20.a vote on. The bill then moved into the Lords,
:08:21. > :08:22.where peers passed it And the second, that Parliament be
:08:23. > :08:30.given a meaningful vote on the terms of the deal or indeed a vote
:08:31. > :08:33.in the event of there The so-called Brexit bill
:08:34. > :08:37.will return to Commons Ministers insist that both
:08:38. > :08:41.amendments would weaken the government's negotiating hand
:08:42. > :08:44.and are seeking to overturn them. But, as ever, politics
:08:45. > :08:50.is a numbers game. Theresa May has a working
:08:51. > :08:51.majority of 17. On Brexit, though,
:08:52. > :08:56.it's probably higher. At least six Labour MPs
:08:57. > :08:58.generally vote with Plus, eight DUP MPs,
:08:59. > :09:02.two from the Ulster Unionist party If all Conservatives vote
:09:03. > :09:08.with the government as well, Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels
:09:09. > :09:14.are needed for the government to be So, are there rough waters
:09:15. > :09:21.ahead for Theresa May? What numbers are we looking at,
:09:22. > :09:24.in terms of a potential rebellion? I think we're looking at a large
:09:25. > :09:27.number of people who are interested This building is a really
:09:28. > :09:29.important building. It's symbolic of a huge
:09:30. > :09:31.amount of history. And for it not to be involved
:09:32. > :09:35.in this momentous time would, But he says a clear verbal statement
:09:36. > :09:42.from the government on a meaningful vote on any deal would be enough
:09:43. > :09:48.to get most Tory MPs onside. It was already said
:09:49. > :09:50.about David Jones. It's slightly unravelled
:09:51. > :09:52.a little bit during I think this is an opportunity
:09:53. > :09:57.to really get that clarity through so that we can all vote
:09:58. > :10:00.for Article 50 and get We've have spoken to several Tory
:10:01. > :10:04.MPs who say they are minded to vote One said the situation
:10:05. > :10:08.was sad and depressing. The other said that the whips must
:10:09. > :10:11.be worried because they don't A minister told me Downing Street
:10:12. > :10:18.was looking again at the possibility of offering a vote in the event
:10:19. > :10:22.of no deal being reached. But that its position
:10:23. > :10:24.was unlikely to change. And, anyway, government sources have
:10:25. > :10:27.told the Sunday Politics they're not That those Tory MPs who didn't back
:10:28. > :10:34.either amendment the first time round would look silly
:10:35. > :10:37.if they did, this time. It would have to be a pretty hefty
:10:38. > :10:40.lot of people changing their minds about things that have already been
:10:41. > :10:44.discussed in quite a lot of detail, last time it was in the Commons,
:10:45. > :10:48.for things to be reversed this time. There's no doubt that a number
:10:49. > :10:51.of Tory MPs are very concerned. Labour are pessimistic
:10:52. > :10:53.about the chances of enough Tory rebels backing either
:10:54. > :10:56.of the amendments in the Commons. The important thing, I think,
:10:57. > :10:59.is to focus on the fact that this is the last chance
:11:00. > :11:02.to have a say on this. If they're going to vote with us,
:11:03. > :11:06.Monday is the time to do it. Assuming the bill does pass
:11:07. > :11:08.the Commons unamended, it will go back to the Lord's
:11:09. > :11:11.on Monday night where Labour peers have already indicated
:11:12. > :11:15.they won't block it again. It means that the Brexit bill
:11:16. > :11:18.would become law and Theresa May would be free to trigger Article
:11:19. > :11:22.50 within days. Her own deadline was
:11:23. > :11:24.the end of this month. But one minister told me there
:11:25. > :11:30.were advantages to doing it early. We're joined now from Nottingham
:11:31. > :11:33.by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry. She's previously voted against
:11:34. > :11:35.the government on the question of whether Parliament should
:11:36. > :11:45.have a final say over the EU deal. Anna Soubry, I think it was clear
:11:46. > :11:49.this morning from David Davies that what he means by meaningful vote is
:11:50. > :11:52.not what you mean by a meaningful vote. He thinks the choice for
:11:53. > :11:59.Parliament would be to either vote for the deal and if Parliament
:12:00. > :12:03.doesn't, we leave on World Trade Organisation rules, on a bare-bones
:12:04. > :12:07.structure. In the end, will he accept that in the Commons tomorrow?
:12:08. > :12:12.No, because my problem and I don't think it is a problem, but my
:12:13. > :12:15.problem, the government's problem is that what I want is then to answer
:12:16. > :12:20.this question. What happens in the event of their not being any deal?
:12:21. > :12:26.David Davies made it very clear that in the event of there being no deal,
:12:27. > :12:28.Parliament would have no say. It means through your elected
:12:29. > :12:32.representatives, the people of this country would have no say on what
:12:33. > :12:38.happens if the government doesn't get a deal. I think the request that
:12:39. > :12:41.Parliament should have a say on Parliamentary sovereignty, is
:12:42. > :12:47.perfectly reasonable. That is what I want David to say. If he says that,
:12:48. > :12:52.I won't be rebelling. If he does... They have refused to say that.
:12:53. > :12:56.Sorry. If he continues to say what he said the BBC this morning, which
:12:57. > :13:04.means that the vote will be either to accept the as negotiated or to
:13:05. > :13:08.leave on WTO rules, will you rebel on that question but no, no, sorry,
:13:09. > :13:12.if there's a deal, Parliament will have a say. So that's fine. And we
:13:13. > :13:16.will see what the deal is and we will look at the options two years
:13:17. > :13:20.down the road. When who knows what'll happen in our economy and
:13:21. > :13:24.world economy. That is one matter which I am content on. The Prime
:13:25. > :13:27.Minister, a woman of her word has said that in the event of a deal,
:13:28. > :13:34.Parliament will vote on any deal. I don't difficulty. To clarify, I will
:13:35. > :13:38.come onto that. These are important matters. I want to clarify, not
:13:39. > :13:41.argue with you. You are content that if there is a deal, we will come
:13:42. > :13:45.under no deal in a second, but if there is a deal, you are content
:13:46. > :13:51.with the choice of being able to vote for that deal or leaving on WTO
:13:52. > :13:57.terms? No, you're speculating as to what might happen in two years'
:13:58. > :14:00.time. What the options might be. Personally I find it inconceivable
:14:01. > :14:03.that the government will come back with a rubbish deal. They will
:14:04. > :14:07.either come back with a good deal, which I won't have a problem with or
:14:08. > :14:12.they will come back with no deal. To speculate about coming back with a
:14:13. > :14:15.deal, there is a variety of options. I understand that that is what the
:14:16. > :14:19.Lord amendments are about. They are about a vote at the end of the
:14:20. > :14:26.process. Do forgive me, the Lords amendment is not the same that I've
:14:27. > :14:29.voted for in Parliament. What we call the Chris Leslie amendment,
:14:30. > :14:31.which was talking about whatever the agreement is, whatever happens at
:14:32. > :14:35.the end of the negotiations, Parliament will have a vote.
:14:36. > :14:39.Parliament will have a say. The Lords amendment is a bit more
:14:40. > :14:44.technical. It is the principle of no deal that is agitating us. Let's
:14:45. > :14:48.clarify on this. They are complicated matters. What do you
:14:49. > :14:52.want the government to say? What do you want David Davis to say tomorrow
:14:53. > :14:56.on what should the Parliamentary process should be if there is no
:14:57. > :15:01.deal? Quite. I want a commitment from him that in the event of no
:15:02. > :15:09.deal, it will come into Parliament and Parliament will determine what
:15:10. > :15:12.happens next. It could be that in the event of no deal, the best thing
:15:13. > :15:15.is for us to jump off the cliff into WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely
:15:16. > :15:20.but that might be the reality. There might be other alternatives. Most
:15:21. > :15:24.importantly, including saying to the government, go back, carry on. The
:15:25. > :15:29.question that everybody has to ask is, why won't the government give
:15:30. > :15:38.My fear is what this is about is asked deliberately, not the Prime
:15:39. > :15:42.Minister, but others deliberately ensuring we have no deal and no deal
:15:43. > :15:47.pretty soon and in that event, we jumped off the cliff onto WTO
:15:48. > :15:51.tariffs and nobody in this country and the people of this country do
:15:52. > :15:58.not have a say. My constituents did not vote for hard Brexit.
:15:59. > :16:03.You do not want the government to have the ability if there is no deal
:16:04. > :16:08.to automatically fall back on the WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as
:16:09. > :16:12.that. We are now speculating about what will happen in two years. I
:16:13. > :16:19.want to find out what happens tomorrow. What will you do if you
:16:20. > :16:24.don't get that assurance? I will either abstain, or I will vote to
:16:25. > :16:28.keep this amendment within the Bill. I will either vote against my
:16:29. > :16:32.government, which I do not do likely, I have never voted against
:16:33. > :16:36.my government until the Chris Leslie clause when the Bill was going
:16:37. > :16:40.through, or I will abstain, which has pretty much the same effect
:16:41. > :16:44.because it comes into the Commons with both amendments so you have
:16:45. > :16:48.positively to vote to take the map. Can you give us an idea of how many
:16:49. > :16:56.like-minded conservative colleagues there are. I genuinely do not know.
:16:57. > :17:01.You must talk to each other. I do not talk to every member of my
:17:02. > :17:09.party. You know people who are like-minded. I do. I am not doing
:17:10. > :17:14.numbers games. I know you want that but I genuinely do not know the
:17:15. > :17:21.figure. I think this is an uncomfortable truth. People have to
:17:22. > :17:23.understand what has happened in our country, two particular newspapers,
:17:24. > :17:27.creating an atmosphere and setting an agenda and I think many people
:17:28. > :17:33.are rather concerned, some frightened, to put their head over
:17:34. > :17:39.the parapet. There are many millions of people who feel totally excluded
:17:40. > :17:43.from this process. Many of them voted to remain. And they have lost
:17:44. > :17:44.their voice. We have covered the ground I wanted to.
:17:45. > :17:51.We're joined now by the Ukip MEP and former leader Nigel Farage.
:17:52. > :17:58.Article 50 triggered, we are leaving the EU, the single market and the
:17:59. > :18:03.customs union. What is left you to complain about? All of that will
:18:04. > :18:08.happen and hopefully we will get the triggered this week which is good
:18:09. > :18:12.news. What worries me a little I'm not sure the government recognises
:18:13. > :18:15.how strong their handers. At the summit in Brussels, the word in the
:18:16. > :18:18.corridors is that we are prepared to give away fishing waters as a
:18:19. > :18:25.bargaining chip and the worry is what deal we get. Are we leaving,
:18:26. > :18:28.yes I am pleased about that. You are under relevant voice in the deal
:18:29. > :18:33.because the deal will be voted on in Parliament and you have one MP. You
:18:34. > :18:37.are missing the point, the real vote in parliament is not in London but
:18:38. > :18:41.Strasbourg. This is perhaps the biggest obstacle the British
:18:42. > :18:45.Government faces. Not what happens in the Commons that the end of the
:18:46. > :18:51.two years, the European Parliament could veto the deal. What that means
:18:52. > :18:54.is people need to adopt a different approach. We do not need to be
:18:55. > :18:59.lobbying in the corridors of Brussels to get a good deal, we need
:19:00. > :19:03.is a country to be out there talking to the German car workers and
:19:04. > :19:08.Belgian chocolate makers, putting as much pressure as we can on
:19:09. > :19:11.politicians from across Europe to come to a sensible arrangement. It
:19:12. > :19:17.is in their interests more than ours. In what way is the vision of
:19:18. > :19:24.Brexit set out by David Davis any different from your own? I am
:19:25. > :19:30.delighted there are people now adopting the position I argued for
:19:31. > :19:35.many years. Good. But now... Like Douglas Carswell, he said he found
:19:36. > :19:42.David Davis' performers this morning reassuring. It is. And just as when
:19:43. > :19:46.Theresa May was Home Secretary every performance she gave was hugely
:19:47. > :19:49.reassuring. She was seen to be a heroine after her conference
:19:50. > :19:57.speeches and then did not deliver. I am concerned that even before we
:19:58. > :20:01.start we are making concessions. You described in the EU's divorce bill
:20:02. > :20:08.demands, 60 billion euros is floated around. You said it is laughable and
:20:09. > :20:12.I understand that. Do you maintain that we will not have to pay a penny
:20:13. > :20:21.to leave? It is nine months since we voted exit and assuming the trigger
:20:22. > :20:26.of Article 50, we would have paid 30 billion in since we had a vote. We
:20:27. > :20:29.are still members. But honestly, I do not think there is an appetite
:20:30. > :20:37.for us to pay a massive divorce Bill. There are assets also. Not a
:20:38. > :20:42.penny? There will be some ongoing commitments, but the numbers talked
:20:43. > :20:48.about our 50, ?60 billion, they are frankly laughable. I am trying to
:20:49. > :20:53.find out if you are prepared to accept some kind of exit cost, it
:20:54. > :20:57.may be nowhere near 60 billion. We have to do a net agreement, the
:20:58. > :21:04.government briefed about our share of the European Union investment
:21:05. > :21:07.bank. Would you accept a transitional arrangement, deal,
:21:08. > :21:12.five, ten billion, as part of the divorce settlement? We are painted
:21:13. > :21:18.net ?30 million every single day at the moment, ?10 billion plus every
:21:19. > :21:22.year. That is just our contribution. We are going to make a massive
:21:23. > :21:28.saving on this. What do you make of what Anna Soubry said, that if there
:21:29. > :21:33.is no deal, and it is being talked about more. Maybe the government
:21:34. > :21:39.managing expectations. There is an expectation we will have a deal, but
:21:40. > :21:43.if there is no deal, that the government cannot just go to WTO
:21:44. > :21:47.rules, but it has to have a vote in parliament? By the time we get to
:21:48. > :21:53.that there will be a general election coming down the tracks and
:21:54. > :21:57.I suspect that if at the end of the two-year process there is no deal
:21:58. > :22:01.and by the way, no deal is a lot better for the nation than where we
:22:02. > :22:06.currently are, because we freed of regulations and able to make our own
:22:07. > :22:13.deals in the world. I think what would happen, and if Parliament said
:22:14. > :22:18.it did not back, at the end of the negotiation a general election would
:22:19. > :22:24.happen quickly. According to reports this morning, one of your most
:22:25. > :22:28.senior aides has passed a dossier to police claiming Tories committed
:22:29. > :22:33.electoral fraud in Thanet South, the seat contested in the election. What
:22:34. > :22:38.evidence to you have? I read that in the newspapers as you have. I am not
:22:39. > :22:44.going to comment on it. Will you not aware of the contents of the
:22:45. > :22:48.dossier? I am not aware of the dossier. He was your election
:22:49. > :22:53.strategists. I am dubious as to whether this dossier exists at all.
:22:54. > :23:00.Perhaps the newspapers have got this wrong. Concerns about the
:23:01. > :23:09.downloading of data the took place in that constituency, there are.
:23:10. > :23:14.Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it done by your MP to give information
:23:15. > :23:19.to the Tories, do you have evidence about? We have evidence Mr Carswell
:23:20. > :23:26.downloaded information, we have no evidence what he did with it. It is
:23:27. > :23:31.not just your aide who has been making allegations against the
:23:32. > :23:37.Conservatives in Thanet South and other seats, if the evidence was to
:23:38. > :23:43.be substantial, and if it was to result in another by-election being
:23:44. > :23:47.called an Thanet South had to be fought again, would you be the Ukip
:23:48. > :23:51.candidate? I probably would. You probably would? Yes. Just probably?
:23:52. > :23:57.Just probably. It would be your eighth attempt. Winning seats in
:23:58. > :24:01.parliament under first past the post is not the only way to change
:24:02. > :24:07.politics in Britain and I would like to think I proved that. Let's go
:24:08. > :24:11.back to Anna Soubry. The implication of what we were saying on the panel
:24:12. > :24:17.at the start of the show and what Nigel Farage was saying there would
:24:18. > :24:21.be that if at the end of the process whatever the vote, if the government
:24:22. > :24:25.were to lose it, it would provoke a general election properly. I think
:24:26. > :24:28.that would be right. Let's get real. The government is not going to come
:24:29. > :24:37.to Parliament with anything other than something it believes is a good
:24:38. > :24:41.deal and if it rejected it, would be unlikely, there would be a de facto
:24:42. > :24:46.vote of no confidence and it would be within the fixed term Parliaments
:24:47. > :24:52.act and that be it. The problem is, more likely, because of the story
:24:53. > :24:56.put up about the 50 billion, 60 billion and you look at the way
:24:57. > :24:59.things are flagged up that both the Prime Minister and Boris Johnson
:25:00. > :25:03.saying, we should be asking them for money back, I think the big fear and
:25:04. > :25:09.the fear I have is we will be crashing out in six months. You
:25:10. > :25:14.think we could leave as quickly as six months. Explain that. I think
:25:15. > :25:20.they will stoke up the demand from the EU for 50, 60 billion back and
:25:21. > :25:25.my real concern is that within six months, where we're not making much
:25:26. > :25:29.progress, maybe nine months, and people are getting increasingly fed
:25:30. > :25:34.up with the EU because they are told it wants unreasonable demands, and
:25:35. > :25:37.then the crash. I think what is happening is the government is
:25:38. > :25:42.putting in place scaffolding at the bottom of the cliff to break our
:25:43. > :25:48.fall when we come to fall off that cliff and I think many in government
:25:49. > :25:53.are preparing not for a two-year process, but six, to nine months,
:25:54. > :25:58.off the cliff, out we go. That is my fear. That is interesting. I have
:25:59. > :26:03.not heard that express before by someone in your position. I suspect
:26:04. > :26:10.you have made Nigel Farage's date. It is a lovely thought. I would say
:26:11. > :26:14.to Anna Soubry she is out of date with this. 40 years ago there was a
:26:15. > :26:19.good argument for joining the common market because tariffs around the
:26:20. > :26:24.world was so high. That has changed with the World Trade Organisation.
:26:25. > :26:33.We are leaving the EU and rejoining a great big world and it is
:26:34. > :26:35.exciting. She was giving an interesting perspective on what
:26:36. > :26:39.could happen in nine months rather than two years. I thank you both.
:26:40. > :26:42.It was Philip Hammond's first budget on Wednesday -
:26:43. > :26:48.billed as a steady-as-she-goes affair, but turned out to cause
:26:49. > :26:50.uproar after the Chancellor appeared to contradict a Tory manifesto
:26:51. > :26:52.commitment with an increase in national insurance contributions.
:26:53. > :27:01.The aim was to address what some see as an imbalance in the tax system,
:27:02. > :27:03.where employees pay more National Insurance
:27:04. > :27:06.The controversy centres on increasing the so-called class 4
:27:07. > :27:09.rate for the self-employed who make a profit of more than ?8,060 a year.
:27:10. > :27:16.It will go up in stages from 9% to 11% in 2019.
:27:17. > :27:20.The changes mean that over one and a half million will pay
:27:21. > :27:24.on average ?240 a year more in contributions.
:27:25. > :27:30.Some Conservative MPs were unhappy, with even the Wales Minister saying:
:27:31. > :27:33."I will apologise to every voter in Wales that read
:27:34. > :27:34.the Conservative manifesto in the 2015 election."
:27:35. > :27:40.The Sun labelled Philip Hammond "spite van man".
:27:41. > :27:42.The Daily Mail called the budget "no laughing matter".
:27:43. > :27:45.By Thursday, Theresa May said the government
:27:46. > :27:51.One of the first things I did as Prime Minister was to commission
:27:52. > :27:55.Matthew Taylor to review the rights and protections that were available
:27:56. > :27:58.to self-employed workers and whether they should be enhanced.
:27:59. > :28:00.People will be able to look at the government paper
:28:01. > :28:03.when we produce it, showing all our changes, and take
:28:04. > :28:08.And, of course, the Chancellor will be speaking, as will his ministers,
:28:09. > :28:12.to MPs, businesspeople and others to listen to the concerns.
:28:13. > :28:14.Well, the man you heard mentioned there, Matthew Taylor,
:28:15. > :28:17.has the job of producing a report into the future
:28:18. > :28:30.Welcome. The Chancellor has decided the self-employed should pay almost
:28:31. > :28:34.the same in National Insurance, not the same but almost, as the employed
:28:35. > :28:39.will stop what is left of your commission? The commission has a
:28:40. > :28:44.broader frame of reference and we are interested in the quality of
:28:45. > :28:49.work in the economy at the heart of what I hope will be proposing is a
:28:50. > :28:54.set of shifts that will improve the quality of that work so we have an
:28:55. > :28:57.economy where all work is fair and decent and all jobs give people
:28:58. > :29:04.scope for development and fulfilment. The issue of taxes a
:29:05. > :29:09.small part. You will cover that? We will, because the tax system and
:29:10. > :29:14.employment regulation system drive particular behaviours in our labour
:29:15. > :29:18.market. You approve I think of the general direction of this policy of
:29:19. > :29:24.raising National Insurance on the self-employed. Taxing them in return
:29:25. > :29:29.perhaps for more state benefits. Why are so many others on the left
:29:30. > :29:33.against it from Tim Farron to John McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular
:29:34. > :29:38.and it is the role of the opposition parties to make capital from
:29:39. > :29:42.unpopular tax rises. I think as tax rises go this is broadly
:29:43. > :29:46.progressive. There are self-employed people on low incomes and they will
:29:47. > :29:50.be better off. It is economic league rational because the reason for the
:29:51. > :29:55.difference in National Insurance -- economically. It was to do with
:29:56. > :29:59.state entitlements. The government is consulting about paid parental
:30:00. > :30:04.leave. A series of governments have not been good about thinking about
:30:05. > :30:09.medium sustainability of the tax base. Self-employment is growing.
:30:10. > :30:14.But it is eroding the tax base. It is important to address those
:30:15. > :30:19.issues. A number of think tanks have said this is a progressive move.
:30:20. > :30:25.Yet, a number of left-wing politicians have been against it.
:30:26. > :30:30.And a number of Tories have said this is a progressive move and not a
:30:31. > :30:35.Tory government move, the balance of you will pay more tax, but you will
:30:36. > :30:39.get more state benefits is not a Tory approach to things. That a Tory
:30:40. > :30:41.approach will be you will pay less tax but entitled to fewer benefits
:30:42. > :30:52.as well. I preferred in and policies to
:30:53. > :30:55.politics -- I prefer policies. When people look at the policy and when
:30:56. > :30:58.they look the fact that there is no real historical basis for that big
:30:59. > :31:02.national insurance differential, they see it is a sensible policy. I
:31:03. > :31:06.don't have to deal with the politics. There has been a huge
:31:07. > :31:09.growth in self-employment from the turn of the millennium. It's been
:31:10. > :31:14.strongest amongst older workers, women part-timers.
:31:15. > :31:20.Do you have any idea, do you have the data in your commission that
:31:21. > :31:23.could tell us how many are taking self-employment because they like
:31:24. > :31:29.the flexibility and they like the tax advantages that come with it,
:31:30. > :31:33.too, or they are being forced into it by employers who don't want the
:31:34. > :31:38.extra costs of employment? Do we know the difference? We do, broadly.
:31:39. > :31:43.Most surveys on self-employment and flexible forms of employment suggest
:31:44. > :31:48.about two thirds to three quarters enjoy it, they like the flexibility,
:31:49. > :31:52.they like the autonomy and about a third to one quarter are less happy.
:31:53. > :31:55.That tends to be because they would like to have a full-time permanent
:31:56. > :31:58.job. It is not necessary that they don't enjoy what they are doing,
:31:59. > :32:02.they would like to do other things. And some of the protections that
:32:03. > :32:07.come with it? Yes. There are some people who are forced into southern
:32:08. > :32:11.employees by high-risk but also some people feel like they can't get a
:32:12. > :32:15.proper job as it were. -- self-employment by people who hire
:32:16. > :32:22.them. It is on the narrow matter of tax revenues but if you are employed
:32:23. > :32:24.on ?32,000 the state will take over ?6,000 in national insurance
:32:25. > :32:30.contributions, that is quite chunky. If you are self-employed it is
:32:31. > :32:34.?2300. But the big difference between those figures isn't what the
:32:35. > :32:40.employee is paying, it's the employer's contributions up to
:32:41. > :32:46.almost 14%, and cupped for as much as you are paid. What do you do
:32:47. > :32:52.about employers' contributions for the self employed? -- it is uncapped
:32:53. > :32:56.for as much. What I recommend is that we should probably move from
:32:57. > :33:01.taxing employment to taxing labour. We should probably have a more level
:33:02. > :33:06.playing field so it doesn't really matter... Explained that I thought
:33:07. > :33:08.it was the same thing. If you are a self-employed gardener, you are a
:33:09. > :33:13.different tax regime to a gardener who works for a gardening firm. On
:33:14. > :33:21.the individual side and on the firm side. As we see new business models,
:33:22. > :33:24.so-called gig working, partly with technology, we need a more level
:33:25. > :33:30.playing field saying that we're taxing people's work, not the form
:33:31. > :33:33.in which they deliver that. That is part of the reason we have seen the
:33:34. > :33:37.growth of particular business models. They are innovative and
:33:38. > :33:41.creative and partly driven by the fact that if you can describe
:33:42. > :33:46.yourself as self-employed there are tax advantages. Coming out in June?
:33:47. > :33:48.Will you come back and talk to us? Yes.
:33:49. > :33:53.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:33:54. > :33:57.Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking to the former
:33:58. > :34:12.Tory MP who was the root of Donald Trump's allegation
:34:13. > :34:17.On today's show: Should they stay or should they go?
:34:18. > :34:20.The EU nationals who are wrestling about whether to apply for permanent
:34:21. > :34:24.residency now in case the Brexit negotiations don't guarantee
:34:25. > :34:31.First, let's meet the two politicians here for the 20 minutes.
:34:32. > :34:34.Conor Burns is the Conservative MP for Bournemouth West.
:34:35. > :34:39.Alan Whitehead is the Labour MP for Southampton Test.
:34:40. > :34:51.The budget wasn't even 48 hours old before the Prime Minister
:34:52. > :34:54.was announcing a postponement of what turned out to be a rather
:34:55. > :34:57.Increasing the national insurance contributions for self-employed.
:34:58. > :34:59.This is just another pasty tax, isn't it?
:35:00. > :35:05.It's a proper approach by the Chancellor that is recognising
:35:06. > :35:07.the changes that have been made to other entitlements
:35:08. > :35:15.There was always a quite large difference between what employed
:35:16. > :35:17.and self-employed people paid in a national insurance because of
:35:18. > :35:23.the difference they received in pension entitlement.
:35:24. > :35:26.Of course, the government has moved to guarantee pension universally
:35:27. > :35:28.to employed and self-employed and this I think is an adjustment
:35:29. > :35:37.that reflects the changing benefits received.
:35:38. > :35:46.But surely it is the manifesto commitment not to increase national
:35:47. > :35:49.insurance that has caused a furore and the promise
:35:50. > :35:52.Repeated in the manifesto, repeated by David Cameron,
:35:53. > :35:54.we won't increase national insurance, and know it is going up.
:35:55. > :35:57.We were very clear that we legislate for the commitments
:35:58. > :36:02.made and that we did after the last general election.
:36:03. > :36:05.I sat on the Finance Bill and there was not a word when we legislated
:36:06. > :36:07.to guarantee the commitments on national insurance,
:36:08. > :36:09.on class of national insurance, that was on that.
:36:10. > :36:11.The manifesto commitment was not for one class,
:36:12. > :36:13.it was for national insurance, and it is going up.
:36:14. > :36:16.I'm prepared to dance around the head of the pin on this
:36:17. > :36:19.but I think you need to look at the wider thing the Chancellor
:36:20. > :36:22.was trying to achieve, which is a greater balance
:36:23. > :36:23.between self-employed and employed people.
:36:24. > :36:27.That gap had been very large when the benefits
:36:28. > :36:30.gap was now diminishing and that was what the Chancellor
:36:31. > :36:34.And the principle of keeping your promises has
:36:35. > :36:38.It's the principle of keeping up-to-date with the with the labour
:36:39. > :36:40.market is changing and making sure people are making an appropriate
:36:41. > :36:42.contribution for the benefits they will receive.
:36:43. > :36:45.No, this is dancing on the head of a pain.
:36:46. > :36:50.There was a clear manifesto pledge at the last election
:36:51. > :36:54.from the Conservatives that they would not have any taxes
:36:55. > :36:57.going up and quite simply national insurance for a weight
:36:58. > :37:11.Yes, there is a case to look at what is self employment and some
:37:12. > :37:14.people are more appropriately self-employed and others.
:37:15. > :37:18.It might have been prudent to look at who is self-employed and how that
:37:19. > :37:24.works first and decide what to do afterwards because what this
:37:25. > :37:33.increase has done is it's caught everybody who is self-employed,
:37:34. > :37:38.from solicitors to butchers to hairdressers to people who drive
:37:39. > :37:41.taxis to people who do deliveries, and those are all in
:37:42. > :37:44.So you don't disagree with the principle that
:37:45. > :37:48.self-employed people should be paying more national insurance
:37:49. > :37:51.and you haven't made that manifesto commitment so why not say it
:37:52. > :37:55.What I'm saying is that there is a case to look at
:37:56. > :37:57.what self-employment consists of in a changing labour market
:37:58. > :38:00.but it is not this case to be made at this budget to put national
:38:01. > :38:02.insurance contributions up for everybody who is self-employed,
:38:03. > :38:07.regardless of their actual circumstances.
:38:08. > :38:10.What is interesting is that the Prime Minister has
:38:11. > :38:17.started to take part in the unravelling of the budget
:38:18. > :38:23.by saying it will be voted on until the autumn.
:38:24. > :38:27.At that time it may be the case that a commission that has been set up
:38:28. > :38:31.to look at what the status of self-employed is
:38:32. > :38:33.Kicked into the long grass, possibly.
:38:34. > :38:40.It shouldn't have happened in this way and...
:38:41. > :38:42.The first point is, as Alan acknowledges,
:38:43. > :38:44.the government has already appointed Matthew Taylor to look
:38:45. > :38:47.at the self-employed as a whole to see what changes may be needed
:38:48. > :38:50.Both in terms of additional contribution but also
:38:51. > :38:54.The second point to make is that overall the self-employed
:38:55. > :38:58.15% of people are self employed, over 60% of these people will be
:38:59. > :39:00.The people who earn less than 16,000.
:39:01. > :39:03.And that is a very, very important thing.
:39:04. > :39:07.I think it is a regret that, at the same time as we extended
:39:08. > :39:09.the pension entitlement, we didn't make these changes then.
:39:10. > :39:15.I think it is a shame we disconnected them.
:39:16. > :39:18.People would have understood there was a give as well as a take.
:39:19. > :39:20.You know that in both our constituencies and number of people
:39:21. > :39:23.who are the lifeblood of our local areas who are working
:39:24. > :39:25.in local businesses, who are working in local shops,
:39:26. > :39:28.are now far worse off than they were before the budget.
:39:29. > :39:30.For no other reason than they are properly self-employed.
:39:31. > :39:34.I don't agree it looks like a shambles.
:39:35. > :39:36.I do agree we could have done a better job of explaining
:39:37. > :39:50.But I think the changes the Chancellor made are sound.
:39:51. > :39:53.The Brexit Bill is back in the Commons this week for the next
:39:54. > :39:57.One of the two amendments added in the Lords and which the government
:39:58. > :40:01.says it will remove is to guarantee the rights of EU nationals
:40:02. > :40:04.That's not to be as many as 3 million people,
:40:05. > :40:06.many of whom have been living here for decades.
:40:07. > :40:09.The uncertainty they are facing has led to an unprecedented increase
:40:10. > :40:11.in the applications for permanent residency but, as our reporter has
:40:12. > :40:16.discovered, that represents for them a real fear for the future.
:40:17. > :40:19.Two women, two different lives, but they both have the same concern.
:40:20. > :40:22.I don't know what is going to happen to me.
:40:23. > :40:34.So I would have to lead but where would I go?
:40:35. > :40:36.I don't want to leave here because my life this year.
:40:37. > :40:43.I've got a son, I've got stepchildren.
:40:44. > :40:45.These anxieties and worries are widely shared among EU citizens
:40:46. > :40:53.There are hundreds of thousands of people like them,
:40:54. > :40:55.eager to apply for permanent residency, the guaranteed right
:40:56. > :41:08.It might suddenly be a very hard thing that comes out of it.
:41:09. > :41:12.There's no point sticking your head in the sand.
:41:13. > :41:14.Elly came here in the 60s from Holland.
:41:15. > :41:16.She's an artist and worked all her life.
:41:17. > :41:22.The statements by the government are so heartless in a way
:41:23. > :41:25.and ignorant sometimes, very ignorant of what
:41:26. > :41:29.people have actually contributed to this country.
:41:30. > :41:39.If I stay here I shall pay taxes until my dying day.
:41:40. > :41:48.Another Dutch National has just finished her Ph.D.
:41:49. > :41:51.in Oxford and has lived in the UK since the early 90s.
:41:52. > :41:55.Suddenly I am looking at that I could be deported and where do I go?
:41:56. > :42:00.We are suddenly up against needing a permanent residence card
:42:01. > :42:07.If you want to apply for permanent residency,
:42:08. > :42:17.It is an 85 page document that requires an awful of added
:42:18. > :42:20.paperwork, including five years worth of P60s, historic utility
:42:21. > :42:24.bills are and, even in some cases, a diary of all the times you may
:42:25. > :42:26.The toll it takes emotionally and psychologically.
:42:27. > :42:29.You spend so much time worrying about it, asking questions,
:42:30. > :42:43.The tax people and the banks say after seven years you don't have
:42:44. > :42:50.Now I need those papers and I haven't got them anymore.
:42:51. > :42:52.You have to fight off anxiety because you are thinking
:42:53. > :43:05.Permanent residency status isn't mandatory while we are still part
:43:06. > :43:09.of the EU and experts say there is no rush to apply
:43:10. > :43:11.but there has already been an increase in applications
:43:12. > :43:18.There's a whole list of criteria to qualify for permanent residency.
:43:19. > :43:24.For at least five years you need to have worked, been self-employed,
:43:25. > :43:27.a student or self-sufficient person who has been living in the UK.
:43:28. > :43:29.But there is a major stumbling block.
:43:30. > :43:32.Students and self-sufficient people such as pensioners or those
:43:33. > :43:34.who are able to support themselves financially need comprehensive
:43:35. > :43:43.Being a student and not having the CSI, I can't apply even though
:43:44. > :43:50.I have worked for long enough and I have got the state pension
:43:51. > :44:02.I do not need CSI as long as I can prove my work history but I haven't
:44:03. > :44:07.got any P60s or whatever else you need to prove and that is why
:44:08. > :44:15.The Home Office didn't have anybody available to speak to us
:44:16. > :44:18.but they did say there has been no change to EU immigration law
:44:19. > :44:30.For now, it is not necessary to apply but uncertainty looms.
:44:31. > :44:33.These two feel that since the referendum there has been a very
:44:34. > :44:48.I thought, what has been lying under the surface that I wasn't aware of?
:44:49. > :44:51.Suddenly you are being made to feel that you are not welcome.
:44:52. > :44:55.But of course everyone always says, but we don't mean you.
:44:56. > :44:59.But all the other people are just like me.
:45:00. > :45:09.So for people like that life has changed overnight.
:45:10. > :45:11.Our guest is from the 3 Million group.
:45:12. > :45:14.You have also applied and have got your permanent residence.
:45:15. > :45:20.But also having heard those voices, is it the outages that has shifted
:45:21. > :45:23.in the country or a new experience the system that has made
:45:24. > :45:28.I've started to realise what the Home Office rules are.
:45:29. > :45:33.After the referendum I thought I will apply
:45:34. > :45:37.for citizenship because I want to solidify my position.
:45:38. > :45:39.I realised then I would have to apply for permanent residence
:45:40. > :45:42.which was only introduced in November 2015 as a
:45:43. > :45:48.I got rejected on a technicality, got unbelievable bureaucratic
:45:49. > :45:53.treatment at the hands of the Home Office.
:45:54. > :45:55.And in this process I started learning about all these people do
:45:56. > :46:04.You can have been here for ten years but if you take a job abroad
:46:05. > :46:06.for a couple of years your clock starts again and you
:46:07. > :46:11.And they were saying about having to keep all the records which people
:46:12. > :46:15.There are women whose utility bills have all been in their husband's
:46:16. > :46:24.I know somebody who is an EU national, divorced from her British
:46:25. > :46:28.husband, is on benefits because she has an adult disabled
:46:29. > :46:31.son, cannot possibly afford CSI, nobody even knew about CSI.
:46:32. > :46:37.I get really cross when the newspapers say anyone who has
:46:38. > :46:41.been here over five years is fine because that is not actually true.
:46:42. > :46:44.Because you got to be able to prove it and it feels
:46:45. > :46:48.It is more than being able to prove it.
:46:49. > :46:51.There are some people who do not qualify according
:46:52. > :46:54.There is such a disconnect between what politicians
:46:55. > :46:58.and the media are saying about these five years.
:46:59. > :47:00.Peter Bone on Newsnight said, I will help you fill in the form,
:47:01. > :47:04.totally patronising us as though it was just a question
:47:05. > :47:07.And all the documents you have to provide.
:47:08. > :47:13.I only qualified by the skin of my teeth because I happen to know
:47:14. > :47:16.you have a five-year block but I took a couple of years off
:47:17. > :47:22.It affects students and so many people but the really important
:47:23. > :47:33.When the Home Office says you don't need to do anything,
:47:34. > :47:34.nothing changes, it matters because immigration here
:47:35. > :47:38.is delegated down to landlords and banks and all sorts of things
:47:39. > :47:41.so people are struggling to get jobs, they are being turned down
:47:42. > :47:43.for jobs, turned down for rented accommodation.
:47:44. > :47:50.The phrase used in the report was sanctioned racism.
:47:51. > :48:01.I know know people who are speaking French on the tube and date
:48:02. > :48:04.gets addressed with, you need to speak English here.
:48:05. > :48:06.Which wouldn't have happened, do you think, before the vote?
:48:07. > :48:09.Like you say, it's sanctioned racism.
:48:10. > :48:14.Would it be alleviated if we were told everyone
:48:15. > :48:26.Following the referendum result, we've got to urgently and at a very
:48:27. > :48:35.early stage regularise the position of EU nationals living in the UK
:48:36. > :48:37.and the easiest way to do that is to say that,
:48:38. > :48:40.if you are an EU national living in the UK at the time
:48:41. > :48:42.of the referendum, July, then you have status
:48:43. > :48:46.But that's not our fault that we can't do that at the moment.
:48:47. > :48:49.If the EU were to say, yes, we will do a deal,
:48:50. > :48:51.it is important that people are treated properly.
:48:52. > :48:56.I think it is our fault because it is inconceivable
:48:57. > :49:05.to my mind that we could really end up banging our fists on the table
:49:06. > :49:12.in negotiation with the EU saying we will chuck our EU nationals out
:49:13. > :49:14.if you don't let our nationals stay in your country or whatever.
:49:15. > :49:18.Not only is it something we need to do the people who have lived
:49:19. > :49:21.in the UK for years and years and years and paid their taxes
:49:22. > :49:24.and had their lives in the UK, but also that is important
:49:25. > :49:28.One tenth of those people working in the General Hospital
:49:29. > :49:30.in Southampton are UK nationals and we can't conceivably throw
:49:31. > :49:34.all those people out of the country and we ought to sort it out
:49:35. > :49:36.at the earliest possible opportunity.
:49:37. > :49:39.We are not going to tell people like our guest they have
:49:40. > :49:43.It is not going to happen and we are making them feel
:49:44. > :49:46.Firstly, the contribution that EU citizens make
:49:47. > :49:52.to the UK is immense, it is welcome, they are an integral
:49:53. > :49:57.part of our society, our economy, our way of life.
:49:58. > :49:59.You are absolutely right on the question
:50:00. > :50:02.We wanted to do this really early on.
:50:03. > :50:05.The Prime Minister made this offer to her fellow European
:50:06. > :50:10.Angela Merkel said, we couldn't do that until the process began.
:50:11. > :50:15.I regret we didn't do this, the offer Theresa May
:50:16. > :50:22.We've now been very clear that this is something we want to achieve
:50:23. > :50:24.right up front at the beginning of the negotiations.
:50:25. > :50:26.Of course there is no question of deporting anybody.
:50:27. > :50:28.Goodness me, a country like Britain deporting people
:50:29. > :50:34.So it is a hollow threat to be making to Angela Merkel anyway.
:50:35. > :50:37.No, because these are quite complex matters.
:50:38. > :50:41.The other point is that we have lots of British nationals living
:50:42. > :50:45.in other European Union countries and we want at the same time
:50:46. > :50:52.as we guarantee the rights of EU nationals living here to get them
:50:53. > :50:54.the right to remain, we want guarantees for them too.
:50:55. > :50:57.It's not fair because you haven't listened
:50:58. > :51:01.They have been wanting to speak to the government and there have
:51:02. > :51:03.been newspaper reports that they have not been
:51:04. > :51:08.Because they want their rights guaranteed in Europe as well.
:51:09. > :51:14.Yes, they do but they have written really strongly,
:51:15. > :51:17.I have quotes that I can't read out now, but they have written
:51:18. > :51:19.to say that they want us to get unilateral...
:51:20. > :51:22.They have come to give evidence at the Brexit select committee
:51:23. > :51:26.to say they also want unilateral rights to be given to us
:51:27. > :51:33.because they do not want to be part of a negotiation.
:51:34. > :51:36.Your very language to say it is down to Germany not agreeing,
:51:37. > :51:39.you are going back to it being a negotiation.
:51:40. > :51:41.Which bit of unilateral do you not understand
:51:42. > :51:51.If it is not a negotiation, it's unilateral.
:51:52. > :51:54.If you forgive me, I will absolutely defend the rights of the government
:51:55. > :51:57.of the United Kingdom to guarantee the rights of United Kingdom
:51:58. > :51:59.citizens living in the European Union at the same time
:52:00. > :52:01.as those rights given to those already here
:52:02. > :52:06.Why don't you at least guarantee the rights that are already
:52:07. > :52:10.Why don't you say something to them about maintaining
:52:11. > :52:13.Say something about continuing to pay for their health care?
:52:14. > :52:16.All the concerns that the British people in Europe that we work with,
:52:17. > :52:19.because we're not trying to just speak out on us.
:52:20. > :52:30.The question you have posed goes to the heart of the complexity
:52:31. > :52:34.of the mutuality of the assurances that we are seeking in negotiations.
:52:35. > :52:37.You should just say that we should be OK.
:52:38. > :52:42.Of course it should be because it's about pension rights to crude
:52:43. > :52:44.entitlements and we can make sure that those living in Germany
:52:45. > :52:46.and Spain and Portugal and France, our citizens living there,
:52:47. > :52:48.can also get those reciprocal rights.
:52:49. > :52:51.That has to be part of a whole agreement and Angela Merkel has been
:52:52. > :52:54.clear that we can't do that except as part of a negotiation.
:52:55. > :52:57.But you are still saying that it is part of a negotiation
:52:58. > :53:00.and if Mrs Merkel, after triggering Article 50, doesn't get you XYZ
:53:01. > :53:03.you are going to take away some of our XYZ rights
:53:04. > :53:05.because it is a negotiation and that goes to the heart of it.
:53:06. > :53:09.It's about getting the best rights for our citizens in the EU and EU
:53:10. > :53:13.Let's just bring in Alan before we go.
:53:14. > :53:16.Which ever way you cut it, if you take that line,
:53:17. > :53:18.it is a negotiation and there is everything to gain
:53:19. > :53:20.and nothing to lose by treating this unilaterally.
:53:21. > :53:27.EU citizens in the UK should unilaterally have the right to stay
:53:28. > :53:30.now and we can do that now and it should not be part
:53:31. > :53:33.Is there any chance the government will change its mind?
:53:34. > :53:37.No, the purpose of a negotiation is to get the best deal mutually
:53:38. > :53:39.for our citizens in the EU and EU citizens here.
:53:40. > :53:45.Now, our regular round-up of the political week
:53:46. > :53:53.Air pollution in Oxford could be cut by a low emissions zone.
:53:54. > :53:59.They go away from the Thames Valley only to discover their
:54:00. > :54:04.Fog started to clear around government negotiations
:54:05. > :54:08.with Surrey County Council to stop a 15% tax rise.
:54:09. > :54:11.In a secret recording the leader referred to...
:54:12. > :54:20.How much did the government offer Surrey County Council
:54:21. > :54:27.Documents reveal a deal drawn up but dropped at the last minute.
:54:28. > :54:33.There was some help in the budget for businesses whose
:54:34. > :54:36.We've got rent increase and we've got rate increase,
:54:37. > :54:41.Fears of a flood of sewage could delay the ?3 million
:54:42. > :54:49.They are worried a sewer upgrade won't be ready.
:54:50. > :54:54.I'm begging Thames Water to come and activate this process now.
:54:55. > :54:59.I've spent several evenings this week going through the release
:55:00. > :55:01.of documents to do with Surrey County Council
:55:02. > :55:06.I guess all councils try and get a deal, don't they?
:55:07. > :55:12.That is the job of government and local authorities coming
:55:13. > :55:15.up to the settlement, is to try and get the best
:55:16. > :55:27.I think Surrey have bargained very hard with government.
:55:28. > :55:29.The adult social care problem is a massive one
:55:30. > :55:33.We confronted it in Bournemouth and Poole and there was a sense
:55:34. > :55:35.amongst all local authorities that what the government had done
:55:36. > :55:37.to date was not enough to meet the shortfall.
:55:38. > :55:43.The Chancellor was listening, aside from what they were talking
:55:44. > :55:46.to Surrey about, and he recognised that an extra
:55:47. > :55:48.?2 billion over three years for local authorities
:55:49. > :55:52.I think that is the big issue, is the government confronting
:55:53. > :55:59.the reality of adult social care on the ground at meeting
:56:00. > :56:04.I will come back to you on whether or not they should have ever denied
:56:05. > :56:06.there was any sort of arrangement that was being negotiated
:56:07. > :56:09.but it is not a sweetheart deal for Surrey County Council.
:56:10. > :56:12.All this is frankly more fishy than a very large plate of haddock.
:56:13. > :56:14.So why is Jeremy Corbyn banging on about it?
:56:15. > :56:20.It is clearly, as revealed by the e-mails and recordings,
:56:21. > :56:23.Surrey thought they had a sweetheart deal in the bag and clearly a lot
:56:24. > :56:31.the lines of there would be a sweetheart deal.
:56:32. > :56:35.I have been a local authority leader in my time and I've never had that
:56:36. > :56:36.sort of arrangement with any government minister or department.
:56:37. > :56:42.There was a sweetheart deal in the budget.
:56:43. > :56:44.It was ?2 billion extra for adult social care
:56:45. > :56:49.A great sweetheart deal, a great Chancellor delivering
:56:50. > :56:55.That's the Sunday Politics in the South.
:56:56. > :56:57.Thank you to my guests, Conor Burns from Bournemouth,
:56:58. > :57:16.You can keep up-to-date with Southern politics,
:57:17. > :57:19.Now the government plans for new grammar schools.
:57:20. > :57:21.The Education Secretary Justine Greening was
:57:22. > :57:23.speaking to a conference of headteachers on Friday.
:57:24. > :57:25.They're normally a pretty polite bunch, but they didn't
:57:26. > :57:31.Broadcasters weren't allowed into the speech,
:57:32. > :57:36.but this was captured on a camera phone.
:57:37. > :57:39.And we have to recognise actually for grammars, in terms of
:57:40. > :57:43.disadvantaged children, that they have, they really
:57:44. > :57:45.do help them close the attainment gap.
:57:46. > :57:47.And at the same time we should recognise that
:57:48. > :57:55...That parents also want choice for their children and that
:57:56. > :58:02.those schools are often very oversubscribed.
:58:03. > :58:11.I suppose it is a rite of passage for and education secretaries to
:58:12. > :58:16.have this at a head teachers conference book the head are usually
:58:17. > :58:19.more polite. Isn't part of the problem, whether one is for or
:58:20. > :58:25.against the expansion of grammar schools, the government plans are
:58:26. > :58:30.complicated, you cannot sum them up in a sentence. The proof of that is
:58:31. > :58:34.they can still get away with denying they are expanding grammar schools.
:58:35. > :58:37.They will find an alternative formulation because it is not as
:58:38. > :58:41.simple as a brute creation of what we used to know is grammar schools
:58:42. > :58:48.with the absolute cut-off of the 11 plus. I am surprised how easy they
:58:49. > :58:52.found it politically. We saw the clip of Justine Greening being
:58:53. > :58:56.jeered a little bit but in the grand scheme, compared to another
:58:57. > :59:00.government trying this idea a decade ago they have got away with it
:59:01. > :59:04.easily and I think what is happening is a perverse consequence of Brexit
:59:05. > :59:09.and the media attention on Brexit, the government of the day can just
:59:10. > :59:13.about get away with slightly more contentious domestic policies on the
:59:14. > :59:18.correct assumption we will be too busy investing our attention in
:59:19. > :59:22.Article 50 and two years of negotiations, WTO terms at
:59:23. > :59:27.everything we have been discussing. I wonder if after grammar schools
:59:28. > :59:30.there will be examples of contentious domestic policies
:59:31. > :59:39.Theresa May can slide in stock because Brexit sucks the life out,
:59:40. > :59:44.takes the attention away. You are a supporter. Broadly. Are you happy
:59:45. > :59:49.with the government approach? They need to have more gumption and stop
:59:50. > :59:53.being apologetic. It is a bazaar area of public policy where we judge
:59:54. > :59:58.the policy on grammar schools based on what it does for children whose
:59:59. > :00:03.parents are unemployed, living on sink estates in Liverpool. It is
:00:04. > :00:07.absurd, we don't judge any other policy like that. It is simple, not
:00:08. > :00:11.contentious, people who are not sure, ask them if they would apply
:00:12. > :00:18.to send their child there, six out of ten said they would. Parents want
:00:19. > :00:20.good schools for their children, we should have appropriate education
:00:21. > :00:24.and they should be straightforward, this is about the future of the
:00:25. > :00:28.economy and we need bright children to get education at the highest
:00:29. > :00:34.level, education for academically bright children. It is supposed to
:00:35. > :00:37.be a signature policy of the Theresa May administration that marks a
:00:38. > :00:41.government different from David Cameron's government who did not go
:00:42. > :00:46.down this road. The signature is pretty blurred, it is hard to read.
:00:47. > :00:54.It is. She is trying to address concerns about those who fail to get
:00:55. > :00:57.into these selective schools and tried to targeted in poorer areas
:00:58. > :01:01.and the rest of it. She will probably come across so many
:01:02. > :01:05.obstacles. It is not clear what form it will take in the end. It is
:01:06. > :01:08.really an example of a signature policy not fully thought through. I
:01:09. > :01:12.think it was one of her first announcements. It was. It surprised
:01:13. > :01:17.everybody. Surprised at the speed and pace at which they were planning
:01:18. > :01:22.to go. Ever since, there have been qualifications and hesitations en
:01:23. > :01:26.route with good cause, in my view. I disagree with Juliet that this is...
:01:27. > :01:29.We all want good schools but if you don't get in there and you end up in
:01:30. > :01:33.a less good school. They already do that. We have selection based on the
:01:34. > :01:37.income of parents getting into a good catchment area, based on the
:01:38. > :01:43.faith of the parents. That becomes very attainable! I might been too
:01:44. > :01:46.shot run christenings for these. -- I have been.
:01:47. > :01:48.Now, you may remember this time last week we were talking
:01:49. > :01:51.about the extraordinary claims by US President Donald Trump,
:01:52. > :01:53.on Twitter of course, that Barack Obama had ordered
:01:54. > :01:56.And there was me thinking that wiretaps went out
:01:57. > :02:01.Is it legal for a sitting President to do so, he asked,
:02:02. > :02:10.concluding it was a "new low", and later comparing it to Watergate.
:02:11. > :02:13.Since then, the White House has been pressed to provide evidence for this
:02:14. > :02:20.It hasn't, but it seems it may have initially come from a report on a US
:02:21. > :02:22.website by the former Conservative MP Louise Mensch.
:02:23. > :02:25.She wrote that the FBI had been granted a warrant to intercept
:02:26. > :02:33.communications between Trump's campaign and Russia.
:02:34. > :02:41.Well, Louise Mensch joins us now from New York.
:02:42. > :02:48.Louise, you claimed in early November that the FBI had secured a
:02:49. > :02:52.court warrants to monitor communications between trump Tower
:02:53. > :02:56.in New York at two Russian banks. It's now four months later. Isn't it
:02:57. > :03:01.the case that nobody has proved the existence of this warrant?
:03:02. > :03:07.First of all, forgive me Andrew, one takes 1's life in one's hand when it
:03:08. > :03:11.is you but I have to correct your characterisation of my reporting. It
:03:12. > :03:15.is very important. I did not report that the FBI had a warrant to
:03:16. > :03:20.intercept anything or that Trump tower was any part of it. What I
:03:21. > :03:24.reported was that the FBI obtained a warrant is targeted on all
:03:25. > :03:28.communications between two Russian banks and were, therefore, allowed
:03:29. > :03:34.to examine US persons in the context of their investigation. What the
:03:35. > :03:40.Americans call legally incidental collection. I certainly didn't
:03:41. > :03:43.report that the warrant was able to intercept or that it had location
:03:44. > :03:49.basis, for example Trump tower. I just didn't report that. The reason
:03:50. > :03:54.that matters so much is that I now believe based on the President's
:03:55. > :03:58.reaction, there may well be a wiretap act Trump Tower. If so,
:03:59. > :04:01.Donald Trump has just tweeted out evidence in an ongoing criminal case
:04:02. > :04:05.that neither I nor anybody else reported. He is right about
:04:06. > :04:09.Watergate because he will have committed obstruction of justice
:04:10. > :04:13.directly from his Twitter account. Let me come back as thank you for
:04:14. > :04:20.clarifying. Let me come back to the question. -- and thank you. We have
:04:21. > :04:25.not yet got proof that this warrant exists, do we? No and we are most
:04:26. > :04:29.unlikely to get it because it would be a heinous crime for Donald Trump
:04:30. > :04:33.to reveal its existence. In America they call it a Glomar response. I
:04:34. > :04:36.can neither confirm nor deny. That is what all American officials will
:04:37. > :04:41.have to say legally. If you are looking for proof, you won't get it
:04:42. > :04:46.until and unless a court cases brought. But that doesn't mean it
:04:47. > :04:49.doesn't exist. The BBC validated this two months after me in their
:04:50. > :04:54.reporting by the journalist Paul Wood. The Guardian, they also
:04:55. > :04:58.separately from their own sources validated the existence of the
:04:59. > :05:01.warrant. If you are in America, you would know that CNN and others are
:05:02. > :05:05.reporting that the investigation in ongoing. Let me come onto the wider
:05:06. > :05:10.point. You believe the Trump campaign including the president
:05:11. > :05:13.were complicit with the Russians during the 2016 election campaign to
:05:14. > :05:15.such an extent that Mr Trump should be impeached. What evidence did you
:05:16. > :05:25.have? That is an enormous amount of
:05:26. > :05:28.evidence. You could start with him saying, hey, Russia, if you are
:05:29. > :05:33.listening, please release all the Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's
:05:34. > :05:36.not evidence. I think it rather is, actually. Especially if you look at
:05:37. > :05:40.some of the evidence that exists on Twitter and elsewhere of people
:05:41. > :05:44.talking directly to his social media manager, Dan should be no and
:05:45. > :05:49.telling him to do that before it happened. There is a bit out there.
:05:50. > :05:54.The BBC itself reported that in April of last year, a six agency
:05:55. > :05:57.task force, not just the FBI, but the Treasury Department, was looking
:05:58. > :06:01.at this. I believe there is an enormous amount of evidence. And
:06:02. > :06:03.then there is the steel dossier which was included in an official
:06:04. > :06:12.report of the US intelligence committee. You've also ... Just to
:06:13. > :06:16.be clear, we don't have hard evidence yet whether this warrant
:06:17. > :06:19.exists. It may or may not. There is doubt about... There are claims
:06:20. > :06:22.about whether there is evidence about Mr Trump and the Russians.
:06:23. > :06:29.That is another matter. You claimed that President Putin had Andrew
:06:30. > :06:35.Breitbart murdered to pave the way for Steve Bannon to play a key role
:06:36. > :06:39.in the Trump administration. I haven't. You said that Steve Bannon
:06:40. > :06:44.is behind bomb threats to Jewish community centres. Aren't you in
:06:45. > :06:48.danger of just peddling wild conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I
:06:49. > :06:53.haven't. No matter how many times people say this, it's not going to
:06:54. > :06:56.be true -- first of all. I said in twitter I believe that to be the
:06:57. > :07:03.case about the murder of Andrew Breitbart. You believe President
:07:04. > :07:07.Putin murdered him. I didn't! You said I reported it, but I believed
:07:08. > :07:12.it. You put it on twitter that you believed it but you don't have a
:07:13. > :07:17.shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I know made assertions. What is the
:07:18. > :07:22.evidence that Mr Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe
:07:23. > :07:26.it. You may believe there are fairies at the bottom of your
:07:27. > :07:31.garden, it doesn't make it true. I may indeed. And if I say so, that's
:07:32. > :07:39.my belief. If I say I am reporting, as I did with the Fisa warrant
:07:40. > :07:45.exists, I have a basis in fact. They believe is just a belief. I know you
:07:46. > :07:52.are relatively new to journalism. Let me get the rules right. Andrew,
:07:53. > :07:55.jealousy is not your colour... If it is twitter, we don't believe it but
:07:56. > :08:00.if it is on your website, we should believe it? If I report something
:08:01. > :08:04.and I say this happened, then I am making an assertion. If I describe a
:08:05. > :08:10.belief, I am describing a belief. Subtlety may be a little difficult
:08:11. > :08:17.for you... No, no. If you want to be a journalist, beliefs have to be
:08:18. > :08:21.backed up with evidence. Really? Do you have a faith? It's not a matter
:08:22. > :08:26.of faith, maybe in your case, that President Putin murdered Andrew
:08:27. > :08:30.Breitbart. A belief and a report at two different things and no matter
:08:31. > :08:35.how often you say that they are the same, they will never be the same.
:08:36. > :08:42.You've said in today's Sunday Times here in London that you've turned
:08:43. > :08:48.into" a temporary superpower" where you "See things really clearly".
:08:49. > :08:54.Have you become delusional? No. I am describing a biological basis for
:08:55. > :08:57.ADHD, which I have. As any of your viewers who are doctors will know.
:08:58. > :09:01.It provides people with unfortunately a lot of scattered
:09:02. > :09:03.focus, they are very messy and absent-minded but when they are
:09:04. > :09:08.interested in things and they have ADHD they can have a condition which
:09:09. > :09:11.is hyper focus. You concentrate very hard on a given subject and you can
:09:12. > :09:17.see patterns and connections. That is biological. Thank you for
:09:18. > :09:23.explaining that. And for getting up early in New York. The first time
:09:24. > :09:27.ever I have interviewed a temporary superpower. Thank you. You are so
:09:28. > :09:31.lucky! You are so lucky! I don't think it's going to happen again.
:09:32. > :09:35.Please don't ask us to comment on that interview! I will not ask you,
:09:36. > :09:39.viewers will make up their own minds. Let's come back to be more
:09:40. > :09:43.mundane world of Article 50. Stop the killing!
:09:44. > :09:49.Will it get through at the government wanted it? Without the
:09:50. > :09:52.Lords amendment falling by the way that? I am sure the Lord will not
:09:53. > :09:56.try to ping-pong this back and forth. So we are at the end of this
:09:57. > :10:00.particular legislative phase. The fact that all three Brexit Cabinet
:10:01. > :10:03.ministers, number ten often don't like one of them going out on a
:10:04. > :10:07.broadcast interview on a Sunday, they've all been out and about. That
:10:08. > :10:12.suggests to me they are working on the assumption it will be triggered
:10:13. > :10:16.this week. This week. The negotiations will begin or at least
:10:17. > :10:19.the process begins. The negotiation process may be difficult, given all
:10:20. > :10:25.of the European elections. The Dutch this week. And then the French and
:10:26. > :10:28.maybe the Italians and certainly the Germans by the end of September,
:10:29. > :10:34.which is less predictable than it was. Given all that, what did you
:10:35. > :10:38.make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom on her part, that we may just end up
:10:39. > :10:44.crashing out in six months question -- fear on her part. It was not just
:10:45. > :10:46.that that we made that deliberately organising. I want us to get on with
:10:47. > :10:53.the deals. Everyone knows a good deal is the
:10:54. > :10:58.best option. Who knows what is going to be on the table when we finally
:10:59. > :11:03.go out? Fascinatingly, the demand for some money back, given the
:11:04. > :11:07.amount of money... Net gains and net costs in terms of us leaving for the
:11:08. > :11:14.EU. It is all to play for. That will be a possible early grounds for a
:11:15. > :11:19.confrontation between the UK and the EU. My understanding is that they
:11:20. > :11:23.expect to do a deal on reciprocal rights of EU nationals, EU nationals
:11:24. > :11:27.here, UK citizens there, quite quickly. They want to clear that up
:11:28. > :11:31.and that will be done. Then they will hit this problem that the EU
:11:32. > :11:36.will be saying you've got to agree the divorce Bill first before we
:11:37. > :11:39.talk about the free trade bill. David Davis saying quite clearly,
:11:40. > :11:44.no, they go together because of the size of the bill. It will be
:11:45. > :11:48.determined, in our part, by how good the access will be. The mutual
:11:49. > :11:51.recognition of EU residents' rights is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss
:11:52. > :11:56.is attracted to that subject but it is the easiest thing to deal with,
:11:57. > :11:59.as is free movement for tourists. Money is what will make it
:12:00. > :12:02.incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly quickly. I imagine the dominant
:12:03. > :12:06.story in the summer will be all about that. This was Anna Soubry's
:12:07. > :12:10.implication, members of the governors could strongly argue,
:12:11. > :12:13.things are so poisonous and so unpleasant at the moment, the
:12:14. > :12:18.dealers are advancing -- members of the government. Why not call it a
:12:19. > :12:22.day and go out on WTO terms while public opinion is still in that
:12:23. > :12:25.direction in that Eurosceptic direction? No buyers' remorse about
:12:26. > :12:30.last year's referendum. The longer they leave it, view more opportunity
:12:31. > :12:34.there is for some kind of public resistance and change of mind to
:12:35. > :12:38.take place. The longer believe it, the more people who voted for Brexit
:12:39. > :12:42.and people who voted Remain and think we didn't get world War three
:12:43. > :12:45.will start being quite angry with the EU for not agreeing a deal. In
:12:46. > :12:51.terms of the rights of EU nationals he and Brits abroad, by all
:12:52. > :12:55.accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed individually. Angela Merkel is the
:12:56. > :12:58.only person who has held that up. That will be dealt with in a matter
:12:59. > :13:05.of days. The chances of a deal being done is likely but in ten seconds...
:13:06. > :13:08.It would not be a bad bet to protect your on something not happening, you
:13:09. > :13:13.might get pretty good odds? The odds are going up that a deal doesn't
:13:14. > :13:18.happen. But, as I said earlier, the House of Commons will not endorse no
:13:19. > :13:23.deal. We are either in an early election or she has to go back
:13:24. > :13:28.again. Either way, you will need us! We will be back at noon tomorrow on
:13:29. > :13:30.BBC Two ahead of what looks like being a big week in politics. We
:13:31. > :13:34.will be back here same time, same place.
:13:35. > :14:38.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:39. > :14:46.They're calling it an entertainment extravaganza