:00:36. > :00:39.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:40. > :00:43.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:44. > :00:47.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:48. > :00:53.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:54. > :00:56.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:57. > :01:02.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:03. > :01:04.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:05. > :01:12.In the South... who's going up and who's going down?
:01:13. > :01:15.How the changing South West Trains rail franchise means new trains
:01:16. > :01:18.costing millions of pounds will be shunted off to the sidings
:01:19. > :01:28.opposing sides give the view from there constituencies.
:01:29. > :01:31.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political
:01:32. > :01:33.panel in the business - Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:34. > :01:38.and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:39. > :01:41.For the people of Gibraltar, Clause 22 of the EU's draft negotiating
:01:42. > :01:43.guidelines came as something of a shock.
:01:44. > :01:49.The guidelines propose that the Government in Spain be
:01:50. > :01:52.given a veto over any future trade deal as it applies to
:01:53. > :01:57.The UK Government has reacted strongly, saying Gibraltar
:01:58. > :01:59.will not be bargained away in the Brexit talks.
:02:00. > :02:06.Here's the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, speaking
:02:07. > :02:12.We are going to look after Gibraltar.
:02:13. > :02:16.Gibraltar's going to be protected all the way, all the way,
:02:17. > :02:18.because the sovereignty of Gibraltar cannot be changed without
:02:19. > :02:21.the agreement of the people of Gibraltar and they have made it
:02:22. > :02:24.very clear they do not want to live under Spanish rule
:02:25. > :02:27.and it is interesting, I think, in the draft guidelines from the EU
:02:28. > :02:30.that Spain is not saying that the whole thing is subject
:02:31. > :02:41.Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is this a Spanish power grab or much
:02:42. > :02:44.ado about nothing? It could be both. Clearly what is happening about this
:02:45. > :02:49.negotiation and will happen again and again is that at different
:02:50. > :02:57.points individual countries can start playing bargaining cards. They
:02:58. > :03:02.will say, if you want a deal, you have to deliver this, UK. Spain is
:03:03. > :03:08.doing it early. It might turn out to be nothing at all. It is an early
:03:09. > :03:16.example of how to delete recruit after Article 50 is triggered, the
:03:17. > :03:21.dynamic -- how after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic changes. At
:03:22. > :03:26.certain points, any country can veto it. It gives them much more power
:03:27. > :03:29.than we have clocked so far. Donald Tusk, the head of the European
:03:30. > :03:35.Council, he went out of his way to say Britain mustn't deal by
:03:36. > :03:40.laterally, with individual countries, it has to deal with the
:03:41. > :03:47.EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking to add this bit in about Spain?
:03:48. > :03:54.Those two things do not tally. I think on our part, when I say we, I
:03:55. > :03:59.mean the Foreign Office and Number 10, we dropped the ball. By
:04:00. > :04:03.excluding Gibraltar from the letter of Article 50, they gave an
:04:04. > :04:09.opportunity to the Spanish to steal the narrative. Why this is
:04:10. > :04:13.important, presentation, things looked like they were going quite
:04:14. > :04:18.well for Theresa May when she handed over the letter, for a few hours,
:04:19. > :04:24.and suddenly, you have this incredible symbolism of Gibraltar.
:04:25. > :04:28.For Brexiteers, the idea that there could be some kind of diminishment
:04:29. > :04:32.or failure in relation to Gibraltar, it would be a very symbolic
:04:33. > :04:37.illustration of things not going entirely to plan. Forget the detail,
:04:38. > :04:43.it does not look great. Gibraltar got mentions in the white paper.
:04:44. > :04:48.They did not get a mention in the Article 50 notification. Do you
:04:49. > :04:52.think the British Government did not see this coming? To be honest, I do
:04:53. > :04:56.not think it would make a bit of difference. Theresa May could have
:04:57. > :04:59.an entire chapter in her letter to Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the
:05:00. > :05:06.EU would have still tried this on. For me, it was as much a point of
:05:07. > :05:11.symbolism than it was for any power grab. It was a good point to make.
:05:12. > :05:16.You need to know, Britain, you are not in our club, we will not have
:05:17. > :05:20.your interests at heart. Officials after the press conference, they
:05:21. > :05:29.went on to talk about it saying it is a territorial dispute. It is not!
:05:30. > :05:33.Gibraltar is British. It is very much a shot across the bow is.
:05:34. > :05:38.Whether it comes to pass, it is still yet to be seen. I feel we will
:05:39. > :05:44.be chasing hares like this for the next few years. There will be many
:05:45. > :05:50.other examples. They are greatly empowered by the whole process.
:05:51. > :05:54.Britain has not really got... It has got to wait and hear what their
:05:55. > :05:59.interpretation of Brexit is. They will negotiate, we will negotiate
:06:00. > :06:04.accordingly. I have some sympathy about the letter, the Article 50
:06:05. > :06:08.letter. They agonised over it, so much to get right in terms of
:06:09. > :06:14.balance and tone. It would have been absurd to start mentioning Skegness
:06:15. > :06:22.and everything else. Why not! Skegness, what did they do? It is a
:06:23. > :06:28.real example of how the dynamic now changes. The Spanish royals are
:06:29. > :06:35.going to come here in a couple of months, that could be interesting.
:06:36. > :06:44.It will be good feelings breaking up, I am sure. -- breaking out.
:06:45. > :06:46.So, after a historic week, the UK is now very much
:06:47. > :06:50.But will it be a smooth journey to the exit door?
:06:51. > :06:52.Or can we expect a bit of turbulence?
:06:53. > :06:55.Are you taking back control, Prime Minister?
:06:56. > :06:57.Big days in politics usually involve people shouting
:06:58. > :06:58.and the Prime Minister getting in a car.
:06:59. > :07:01.It is only a few hundred metres from Downing Street to Parliament.
:07:02. > :07:04.But the short journey is the start of a much longer one
:07:05. > :07:09.and we do not know exactly where we will all end up.
:07:10. > :07:11.This is a historic moment from which there can
:07:12. > :07:21.Moments earlier, this Dear John, sorry, Dear Don letter,
:07:22. > :07:23.was delivered by Britain's ambassador in Brussels to the EU
:07:24. > :07:26.He seemed genuinely upset to have been jilted.
:07:27. > :07:32.Back in Westminster, hacks from around the world
:07:33. > :07:35.were trying to work out what it all meant for the
:07:36. > :07:41.So, here it is, a copy of the six-page letter
:07:42. > :07:48.The letter reaffirms the PM's proposal to have talks on the exit
:07:49. > :07:50.deal and a future trade deal at the same time.
:07:51. > :07:53.It also mentioned the word "security" 11 times and stated
:07:54. > :07:55.a failure to reach agreement would mean cooperation
:07:56. > :07:59.in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.
:08:00. > :08:03.Later, our very own Andrew got to ask her what would happen
:08:04. > :08:08.if Britain left the European policing agency, Europol.
:08:09. > :08:12.We would not be able to access information in the same way
:08:13. > :08:15.as we would as a member, so it is important, I think,
:08:16. > :08:17.we are able to negotiate a continuing relationship that
:08:18. > :08:20.enables us to work together in the way that we have.
:08:21. > :08:22.That night, the Brexiteers were happy.
:08:23. > :08:28.We did not have a Mad Hatter, but now we do.
:08:29. > :08:32.Down the street, even the Remainers, having a Mad Hatters' tea party,
:08:33. > :08:41.I am not sure that is actually Boris, though.
:08:42. > :08:56.The next morning, the papers suggested Theresa May would use
:08:57. > :08:56.security as a bargaining tool and threaten to withdraw the UK's
:08:57. > :08:56.cooperation in this area if no deal was struck.
:08:57. > :08:57.Downing Street denied it, as did the Brexit Secretary.
:08:58. > :09:00.We can both cope, but we will both be worse off.
:09:01. > :09:03.That seems to be a statement of fact, it is not a threat,
:09:04. > :09:06.David Davis had other business that morning,
:09:07. > :09:08.introducing the Great Repeal Bill, outling his plans to transfer
:09:09. > :09:10.all EU law into British law to change later,
:09:11. > :09:16.It is not without its critics but the Brexit Secretary said,
:09:17. > :09:18.among other benefits, it would make trade talks easier
:09:19. > :09:24.As we exit the EU and seek a new deep and special partnership
:09:25. > :09:27.with the European Union, we are doing so from a position
:09:28. > :09:29.where we have the same standards and rules.
:09:30. > :09:35.It will also ensure we deliver on our promise to end the supremacy
:09:36. > :09:37.of European Union law in the UK as we exit.
:09:38. > :09:44.There was, though, a small issue with the name.
:09:45. > :09:47.The Government hit an early hurdle with the Great Repeal Bill.
:09:48. > :09:50.Parliamentary draughtsmen said they were not allowed
:09:51. > :09:58.Great(!) so it is just the Repeal Bill.
:09:59. > :10:00.So far, it had been a tale of two cities.
:10:01. > :10:04.By Friday, there was another, Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders
:10:05. > :10:06.were having a meeting and President Tusk, yes, him again,
:10:07. > :10:13.set out draft guidelines for the EU Brexit strategy.
:10:14. > :10:16.Once, and only once, we have achieved sufficient progress
:10:17. > :10:18.on the withdrawal can we discuss the framework for our
:10:19. > :10:22.Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time,
:10:23. > :10:30.as suggested by some in the UK, will not happen.
:10:31. > :10:35.The EU 27 does not and will not pursue a punitive approach.
:10:36. > :10:41.Brexit in itself is already punitive enough.
:10:42. > :10:44.The pressure on Theresa May to get the Brexit process going has now
:10:45. > :10:47.gone and the stage is being set elsewhere for the showdown
:10:48. > :10:57.But face-to-face discussions are not likely to happen
:10:58. > :11:04.Before May or early June. No one is celebrating just yet.
:11:05. > :11:06.We're joined now from Kent by the former Conservative
:11:07. > :11:13.The EU says it will not talk about a future relationship with the UK
:11:14. > :11:17.until there has been sufficient progress on agreeing the divorce
:11:18. > :11:26.bill. Should the UK agree to this phased approach? Well, I think you
:11:27. > :11:32.can make too much about the sequence and timing of the negotiations. I
:11:33. > :11:36.assume that it will be a case of nothing is agreed until everything
:11:37. > :11:39.is agreed and so any agreements that might be reached on things talked
:11:40. > :11:46.about early on will be very provisional, so I think you can make
:11:47. > :11:50.a big deal about the timing and the sequence when I do not think it
:11:51. > :11:54.really matters as much as all that. Don't people have a right in this
:11:55. > :11:58.country to be surprised of the talk of a massive multi-billion pound
:11:59. > :12:05.divorce settlement? I do not remember either side making much of
:12:06. > :12:09.this in the referendum, do you? No. A select committee of the House of
:12:10. > :12:15.Lords recently reported and said that there was no legal basis for
:12:16. > :12:23.any exit fee. We will have to see how the negotiations go. I think
:12:24. > :12:25.some of the figures cited so far are wildly out of kilter and wildly
:12:26. > :12:31.unrealistic. We will have to see what happens in the negotiations. As
:12:32. > :12:35.one of your panel commented earlier, there will be lots of hares to
:12:36. > :12:40.pursue over the next couple of years and we should not get too excited
:12:41. > :12:46.about any of them. Would you accept that we make... It may not be
:12:47. > :12:50.anything like the figures Brussels is kicking around of 50, 60 billion
:12:51. > :12:59.euros, do you think we will have to make a one-off settlement? If we get
:13:00. > :13:05.everything else we want, if we get a really good trade deal and access
:13:06. > :13:09.for the City of London and so on, speaking for myself, I would be
:13:10. > :13:18.prepared to make a modest payment. But it all depends on the deal we
:13:19. > :13:22.get. What would modest be? Oh, I cannot give you a figure. We are
:13:23. > :13:26.right at the start of the negotiations. I do not think that
:13:27. > :13:32.would be agreed until near the end. The EU says that if there is a
:13:33. > :13:36.transition period of several years after the negotiations, and there is
:13:37. > :13:41.more talk of that, the UK must remain subject to the free movement
:13:42. > :13:46.of peoples and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, would
:13:47. > :13:50.that be acceptable to you? It depends on the nature of the
:13:51. > :13:56.transitional agreement. We are getting well ahead of ourselves
:13:57. > :14:00.here. You cannot, I think, for any judgment as to whether there should
:14:01. > :14:03.be a transitional stage until you know what the final deal is. If
:14:04. > :14:09.there is to be a final deal. And then you know how long it might take
:14:10. > :14:15.to implement that deal. That is something I think that it is really
:14:16. > :14:19.rather futile to talk about at this stage. It may become relevant,
:14:20. > :14:24.depending on the nature of the deal, and that is the proper time to talk
:14:25. > :14:29.about it and decide what the answer to the questions you pose might be.
:14:30. > :14:34.Except the EU has laid this out in its negotiation mandate and it is
:14:35. > :14:40.reasonable to ask people like yourself, should we accept that? It
:14:41. > :14:43.is reasonable for me to say, they will raise all sorts of things in
:14:44. > :14:48.their negotiating mandate and we do not need to form a view of all of
:14:49. > :14:52.them at this stage. Let me try another one. The EU says if they do
:14:53. > :14:56.agree what you have called a comprehensive free trade deal, we
:14:57. > :15:00.would have to accept EU constraints on state aid and taxes like VAT and
:15:01. > :15:09.corporation tax. Would you accept that? Again, I am not sure quite
:15:10. > :15:13.what they have in mind on that. We will be an independent country when
:15:14. > :15:20.we leave and we will make our own decisions about those matters. Not
:15:21. > :15:26.according to know that -- to the negotiating mandate. As I have said,
:15:27. > :15:30.they can put all sorts of things in the negotiating guidelines, it does
:15:31. > :15:35.not mean we have to agree with them. No doubt that is something we can
:15:36. > :15:40.discuss in the context of a free trade agreement. If we get a free
:15:41. > :15:43.trade agreement, that is very important for them as well as for
:15:44. > :15:50.us, and we can talk about some of the things you have just mentioned.
:15:51. > :15:59.Can you please leave a 20 without having repatriated full control of
:16:00. > :16:03.migration, taxis and the law? I think we will have repatriated all
:16:04. > :16:10.three of those things by the time of the next general election. How high
:16:11. > :16:16.would you rate the chances of no deal, and does that prospect worry
:16:17. > :16:20.you? I think the chances are we will get the deal, and I think the
:16:21. > :16:25.chances are we will get a good deal, because that is in the interests of
:16:26. > :16:31.both sides of this negotiation. But it is not the end of the world if we
:16:32. > :16:36.do not get a deal. Most trade in the world is carried out under World
:16:37. > :16:41.Trade Organisation rules. We would be perfectly OK if we traded with
:16:42. > :16:45.the European Union, as with everybody else, under World Trade
:16:46. > :16:49.Organisation rules. It is better to get the deal, and I think we will
:16:50. > :16:54.get the deal, because it is in the interests of both. Let me ask you
:16:55. > :16:58.about Gibraltar. You have campaigned in Gibraltar when the sovereignty
:16:59. > :17:04.issue came up under the Tony Blair government. The EU says that Spain
:17:05. > :17:08.should have a veto on whether any free-trade deal should apply to the
:17:09. > :17:13.Rock. How should the British government replied to that? As it
:17:14. > :17:20.has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand
:17:21. > :17:24.by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this week, Andrew, another woman Prime
:17:25. > :17:28.Minister Centre task force is halfway across the world to protect
:17:29. > :17:32.another small group of British people against another
:17:33. > :17:37.Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely clear that our current
:17:38. > :17:48.woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to
:17:49. > :17:51.Gibraltar as her predecessor did. This is not about Spain invading
:17:52. > :17:53.Gibraltar, it is not even about sovereignty, it is about Spain
:17:54. > :17:56.having a veto over whether any free-trade deal that the UK makes
:17:57. > :18:03.with the EU should also apply to Gibraltar. On that issue, how should
:18:04. > :18:06.the British government respond? The British government should show
:18:07. > :18:11.resolve. It is not in the interests of Spain, really, to interfere with
:18:12. > :18:16.free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 people who live in Spain working
:18:17. > :18:20.Gibraltar. That is a very important Spanish interest, so I am very
:18:21. > :18:26.confident that in the end, we will be able to look after all the
:18:27. > :18:29.interests of Gibraltar, including free trade. Michael Howard, thank
:18:30. > :18:32.you for joining us from Kent this morning.
:18:33. > :18:34.Although sometimes it seems like everyone has forgotten,
:18:35. > :18:36.there are things happening other than Brexit.
:18:37. > :18:39.In less than five weeks' time, there will be a round of important
:18:40. > :18:42.domestic elections and there's a lot up for grabs.
:18:43. > :18:45.Local elections take place on the 4th of May in England,
:18:46. > :18:49.In England, there are elections in 34 councils, with 2,370
:18:50. > :18:56.The majority are county councils, usually areas of strength
:18:57. > :19:03.Large cities where Labour usually fares better are not
:19:04. > :19:07.Six regions of England will also hold elections for newly created
:19:08. > :19:09.combined authority mayors, and there will be contests
:19:10. > :19:16.for directly elected mayors, with voters in Manchester,
:19:17. > :19:19.Liverpool and the West Midlands among those going to the polls.
:19:20. > :19:21.In Scotland, every seat in all 32 councils are being contested,
:19:22. > :19:24.many of them affected by boundary changes.
:19:25. > :19:27.Since these seats were last contested, Labour lost all but one
:19:28. > :19:32.Meanwhile, every seat in each of Wales' 22 councils
:19:33. > :19:38.All but one was last elected in 2012 in what was a very
:19:39. > :19:40.strong year for Labour, though independent
:19:41. > :19:42.candidates currently hold a quarter of council seats.
:19:43. > :19:44.According to the latest calculations by Plymouth
:19:45. > :19:50.University Election Centre, the Tories are predicted
:19:51. > :19:52.to increase their tally by 50 seats, despite being in government,
:19:53. > :19:59.But the dramatic story in England looks to be with the other parties,
:20:00. > :20:01.with the Lib-Dems possibly winning 100 seats, while Ukip
:20:02. > :20:06.could be seeing a fall, predicted to lose 100 seats.
:20:07. > :20:08.Though the proportional system usually makes big changes
:20:09. > :20:12.less likely in Scotland, the SNP is predicted to increase
:20:13. > :20:14.both the number of seats they hold, and the number
:20:15. > :20:23.In Wales, Labour is defending a high water mark in support.
:20:24. > :20:26.Last year's Welsh Assembly elections suggest the only way is down,
:20:27. > :20:28.with all the parties making modest gains at Labour's expense.
:20:29. > :20:30.Joining me now is the BBC's very own elections guru,
:20:31. > :20:34.Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde.
:20:35. > :20:40.Good to see you again. Let's start with England. How bad are the
:20:41. > :20:46.selection is going to be for Labour? Labourer not defending a great deal
:20:47. > :20:49.because this is for the most part rural England. The only control
:20:50. > :20:53.three of the council they are defending and they are only
:20:54. > :20:58.defending around 500 seats, I nearly a quarter are in one county, Durham.
:20:59. > :21:01.Labour's position in the opinion polls is weakened over the last 12
:21:02. > :21:14.months and if you compare the position in the opinion polls now
:21:15. > :21:17.with where they were in the spring of 2013 when these seats in England
:21:18. > :21:19.were last fought, we are talking about a 12 point swing from Labour
:21:20. > :21:21.to conservative. The estimate of 50 losses may be somewhat optimistic
:21:22. > :21:26.for Labour. Of the three council areas they control, two of them,
:21:27. > :21:29.Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, could be lost, leaving labourer with
:21:30. > :21:33.virtually a duck as far as council control is concerned in these
:21:34. > :21:38.elections in England. In England, what would a Liberal Democrat
:21:39. > :21:42.reserve urgently great? That is the big question. We have had this
:21:43. > :21:46.picture since the EU referendum of the Liberal Democrats doing
:21:47. > :21:54.extraordinarily well in some local by-elections, gaining seats that
:21:55. > :21:56.they had not even fought before, and in other areas, doing no more than
:21:57. > :21:59.treading water. We are expecting a Liberal Democrat skin because the
:22:00. > :22:03.lost the lot -- the lost lots of ground when they were in coalition
:22:04. > :22:07.with the Conservatives. It is uncertain. A patchy performance may
:22:08. > :22:11.well be to their advantage. If they do well in some places and gain
:22:12. > :22:14.seats, and elsewhere do not do terribly well and do not waste
:22:15. > :22:19.votes, they may end up doing relatively well in seats, even if
:22:20. > :22:21.the overall gaining votes is likely to be modest. The elections for
:22:22. > :22:54.mayors, they are taking place in the Labour will that be a hefty
:22:55. > :22:57.consolation prize for the Labour Party? It ought to be, on Teesside,
:22:58. > :22:59.Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We are looking at one content very
:23:00. > :23:02.closely, that is the contest for the mayor of the West Midlands. If you
:23:03. > :23:04.look at what happened in the general election in 2015, labourer work nine
:23:05. > :23:07.points ahead of the Conservatives in the West Midlands. If you look at
:23:08. > :23:10.the swing since the general election, if you add that swing to
:23:11. > :23:12.where we were two years ago, the West Midlands now looks like a draw.
:23:13. > :23:15.Labour have to worry about a headline grabbing loss, and the West
:23:16. > :23:17.Midlands contest. If they were to lose, that wooden crate -- that
:23:18. > :23:20.would increase the pressure for their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince
:23:21. > :23:25.people that they can turn his party's fortunes around, and in
:23:26. > :23:29.truth at the moment, they are pretty dire. The West Midlands has
:23:30. > :23:34.Birmingham as its heart. Chock-a-block with marginal seats.
:23:35. > :23:39.It always has been. I always remember election night and marginal
:23:40. > :23:46.seats in the West Midlands. Scotland, the SNP is assaulting
:23:47. > :23:52.Labour's last remaining power base. The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it
:23:53. > :23:57.take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP will gain control of Glasgow is
:23:58. > :24:01.uncertain. If you look at what is happening in local government
:24:02. > :24:05.by-elections let alone the opinion polls, in 2012, when these seats
:24:06. > :24:10.were last fought, Labour did relatively well, only one percentage
:24:11. > :24:13.point behind the SNP who were rather disappointed with the result
:24:14. > :24:23.compared to other elections. No sign of that happening this time alone --
:24:24. > :24:25.this time around. Polls put the SNP ahead. By-elections have found the
:24:26. > :24:28.SNP advancing and Labour dropping by double digits. Labour are going to
:24:29. > :24:31.lose everything they currently control in Scotland, the SNP will
:24:32. > :24:37.become the dominant party, the question is how well they do. In
:24:38. > :24:41.Scotland there is a Conservative revival going on. The Conservatives
:24:42. > :24:45.did well in recent local government by-elections. At the moment, Labour
:24:46. > :24:53.are expected to come third north of the border in the local elections,
:24:54. > :24:55.repeating the third they suffered in the Holyrood elections last year. In
:24:56. > :25:00.Wales, Labour is expecting to lose control of a number of councils.
:25:01. > :25:05.They are the main party in 12 of 22 local authorities. How bad could it
:25:06. > :25:09.be? We're expecting Labour to lose ground. In the opinion polls when
:25:10. > :25:15.these seats were last fought, labourer in the high 40s. Now they
:25:16. > :25:20.are not much above 30%. Cardiff could well join Glasgow was no
:25:21. > :25:25.longer being a Labour stronghold. Look out for Newport. Some of the
:25:26. > :25:38.South Wales councils that Labour control, Labour is
:25:39. > :25:42.probably too but occasionally, Plaid Cymru surprises in this area. They
:25:43. > :25:44.managed to win the Rhondda seat in the assembly elections. Jeremy
:25:45. > :25:46.Corbyn has said he wants to be judged on proper elections, council
:25:47. > :25:49.elections as opposed to opinion polls, but even if he does as badly
:25:50. > :25:56.as John has been suggesting, does it affect his leadership? I think it
:25:57. > :25:59.does on two counts. It will affect his own confidence. Anyone who is a
:26:00. > :26:03.human being will be affected by this. He might go into his office
:26:04. > :26:08.and be told by John McDonnell and others, stand firm, it is all right,
:26:09. > :26:15.but it will affect his confidence and inevitably it contributes to a
:26:16. > :26:19.sense that this is moving to some kind of denoument, at some point. In
:26:20. > :26:26.other words, while I understand the argument that he has won twice in a
:26:27. > :26:31.leadership contest, well, within 12 months, I wonder whether this can
:26:32. > :26:37.carry on in a fixed term parliament, up until 2020, if it were to do so.
:26:38. > :26:42.On two France, it will have some impact. I am not seeing it will lead
:26:43. > :26:46.to his immediate departure, it will mark, but if these things are as
:26:47. > :26:53.devastating as John suggests, it will have an impact. Tom, I'll be
:26:54. > :26:58.looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That is the $64,000 question. It would
:26:59. > :27:03.seem that we should be. One massive reason we're not having a general
:27:04. > :27:06.election a time soon, apart from the fact that Theresa May does not
:27:07. > :27:11.believe in these things, she believes in pressing on, it is
:27:12. > :27:14.because Tory MPs in the South West who took the Lib Dem seats, they
:27:15. > :27:18.were telling Number 10 they were worried they were going to lose
:27:19. > :27:22.their seats back to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems never went away and
:27:23. > :27:25.local government. They have got other campaigners and activists. It
:27:26. > :27:31.looks credible that they will be the success story of the whole thing.
:27:32. > :27:36.Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says this will be the most difficult
:27:37. > :27:42.local elections his party will face before 2020. A bit of management of
:27:43. > :27:47.expectations. It is unlikely to be a good time for Ukip. They are right
:27:48. > :27:50.to manage expectations. The results will be horrible for Ukip. I agree
:27:51. > :28:13.with Tom about the Lib Dem threat to the Tories. Talking to
:28:14. > :28:15.some senior figures within the Tory party earlier this week, I was
:28:16. > :28:17.picking up that they are worried about 30-40 general election seeds
:28:18. > :28:19.being vulnerable to the Lib Dems because of the Labour collapse. I
:28:20. > :28:21.would normally agree with Steve about the resilience of politicians,
:28:22. > :28:24.the capability of withstanding repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is
:28:25. > :28:26.not in the normal category. I think he is, in the sense that although he
:28:27. > :28:29.get solace from winning leadership contest, anyone who leads a party
:28:30. > :28:35.into the kind of, it is not going to be that vivid, because they are not
:28:36. > :28:41.defending the key seats. If they were to win Birmingham, say, and get
:28:42. > :28:45.slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland, it will undermine what is already a
:28:46. > :28:47.fairly ambiguous sense of self-confidence. We need to leave it
:28:48. > :28:50.there. Thank you, John Curtice. Well, with those elections
:28:51. > :28:52.on the horizon, is Labour where it Former leader Ed Miliband
:28:53. > :28:55.was on the Andrew Marr Show earlier and he explained
:28:56. > :28:58.the challenge Labour faces It is easier for other parties,
:28:59. > :29:02.if you are the Greens or the Liberal Democrats you're essentially
:29:03. > :29:05.fishing in the 48% pool. If you are Ukip, you are
:29:06. > :29:09.fishing in the 52% pool. Labour is trying to do
:29:10. > :29:11.something much harder, which is to try and speak
:29:12. > :29:13.for the whole country, and by the way, that is another part
:29:14. > :29:15.of Our attack on Theresa May,
:29:16. > :29:19.part of it is she's Ignoring the verdict
:29:20. > :29:26.going into this, saying, let's overturn it, looks
:29:27. > :29:28.like ignoring the 52%. By the way, there is more
:29:29. > :29:33.that unites Remainers and Leavers than might first appear,
:29:34. > :29:36.because they share common concerns about the way
:29:37. > :29:40.the country is run. Joining me now is the Shadow Health
:29:41. > :29:49.Secretary, Jon Ashworth. Welcome to the programme. Alastair
:29:50. > :29:54.Campbell told me on the BBC on Thursday that he is fighting to
:29:55. > :29:58.reverse the referendum result. Ed Miliband says that Remain needs to
:29:59. > :30:04.accept the result, come to terms with it. Who is right? We have to
:30:05. > :30:09.accept the referendum result. I campaigned passionately to remain in
:30:10. > :30:12.the European Union. The city I represent, Leicester, voted narrowly
:30:13. > :30:17.to remain in the European Union. Sadly the country did not. We cannot
:30:18. > :30:23.overturn that and be like kinky nude, trying to demand the tide go
:30:24. > :30:27.back out. We have to accept this democratic process. We all voted to
:30:28. > :30:34.have a referendum when the relevant legislation came to Parliament. How
:30:35. > :30:45.bad will the local elections before Labour? Let us see where we get to
:30:46. > :30:50.on election night when I am sure I will be invited on to one of these
:30:51. > :30:58.types of programmes... The election date, the following day. But it does
:30:59. > :31:02.look like you will lose seats across the board in England, Scotland and
:31:03. > :31:08.Wales. What did you make of what Steve Richards said about the impact
:31:09. > :31:12.on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We have to win seats, we cannot fall
:31:13. > :31:20.back on the scales suggested. No, your package was right, it tends to
:31:21. > :31:25.be Tory areas, but generally, we have to be winning in
:31:26. > :31:29.Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those types of places because they contain
:31:30. > :31:32.a lot of the marginal constituencies that decide general elections. The
:31:33. > :31:39.important places in the elections are towns like Beeston, towns you
:31:40. > :31:45.have not heard of, but they are marginal towns in marginal swing
:31:46. > :31:50.constituencies. We have to do well in them. We will see where we are on
:31:51. > :31:56.election night but my pretty is to campaign hard in these areas over
:31:57. > :32:01.the next few weeks. Even people who voted Labour in 2015, they prefer
:32:02. > :32:06.Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't
:32:07. > :32:16.that extraordinary? I have not seen that. I will look it up. It was you
:32:17. > :32:20.Government. -- YouGov. It is important we win the trust of
:32:21. > :32:25.people. You are not winning the trust of people who voted for you in
:32:26. > :32:30.2015. We have to hold onto people who voted for us in 2015 and we have
:32:31. > :32:34.to persuade people who voted for other parties to come to us. One of
:32:35. > :32:40.the criticisms I have of the debate that goes on in the wider Labour
:32:41. > :32:43.Party, do not misunderstand me, I am not making a criticism about an
:32:44. > :32:48.individual, but the debate you see online suggests that if you want to
:32:49. > :32:53.get people who voted Conservative to switch to Labour it is somehow a
:32:54. > :32:59.betrayal of our principles, it was not. Justin Trudeau said
:33:00. > :33:06.Conservative voters are our neighbours, our relatives. We have
:33:07. > :33:12.to persuade people to switch from voting Conservative to voting Labour
:33:13. > :33:17.as well as increasing our vote among nonvoters and Greens. It seems like
:33:18. > :33:20.you have a mountain to climb and the mountain is Everest. Another poll, I
:33:21. > :33:31.am not sure if you have seen this, in London, the Bastian of Labour,
:33:32. > :33:36.the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is less popular than even Ukip's Paul
:33:37. > :33:43.Nuttall. That is beyond extraordinary! I do not know about
:33:44. > :33:49.that. The most recent set of elections in London was the mayoral
:33:50. > :33:54.election where the Labour candidate city: won handsomely. He took the
:33:55. > :34:04.seat of a conservative. We took that of a conservative. It was a year
:34:05. > :34:10.ago. We did well then. You had an anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I
:34:11. > :34:15.think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn, from memory. We have not got
:34:16. > :34:23.elections in London but our elections are in the county areas
:34:24. > :34:28.and the various mayoral elections... What about the West Midlands? In any
:34:29. > :34:34.normal year, mid-term, as the opposition, Labour should win the
:34:35. > :34:39.West Midlands. John Curtis says it is nip and tuck. It has always been
:34:40. > :34:43.a swing region but we want to do well, of course. We want to turn out
:34:44. > :34:49.a strong Labour vote in Dudley, Northampton, those sorts of places.
:34:50. > :34:55.They are key constituencies in the general election. Does Labour look
:34:56. > :35:00.like a government in waiting to you? What I would say is contrast where
:35:01. > :35:07.we are to what the conservative garment is doing. I asked you about
:35:08. > :35:09.Labour, you do not get to tell me about the Conservatives. Does it
:35:10. > :35:14.look like a government in waiting to you? Today we are exposing the
:35:15. > :35:19.Conservatives... Reminding people the Conservatives are breaking the
:35:20. > :35:24.pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks so lots of elderly people waiting
:35:25. > :35:29.longer in pain for hip replacements and cataract replacements. Yesterday
:35:30. > :35:35.the Housing spokesperson John Healey was exposing the shortcomings in the
:35:36. > :35:39.Help to Buy scheme. The education spokesperson has been campaigning
:35:40. > :35:42.hard against the cuts to schools. Tom Watson has been campaigning hard
:35:43. > :35:47.against some of the changes the Government want to introduce in
:35:48. > :35:51.culture. The Shadow Cabinet are working hard to hold the
:35:52. > :35:56.Government's feet to the fire. Does it look like a government in
:35:57. > :36:02.waiting? Yes. It took you three times! There is a social care
:36:03. > :36:07.crisis, schools funding issue, a huge issue for lots of areas, the
:36:08. > :36:13.NHS has just got through the winter and is abandoning many of its
:36:14. > :36:19.targets. You are 18 points behind in the polls. We have to work harder.
:36:20. > :36:24.What can you do? The opinion polls are challenging but we are a great
:36:25. > :36:29.Social Democratic Party of government. On Twitter today, lots
:36:30. > :36:33.of Labour activists celebrating that the national minimum wage has been
:36:34. > :36:38.in place for something like 16 years because we were in government. Look
:36:39. > :36:42.of the sweeping progressive changes this country has benefited from, the
:36:43. > :36:46.NHS, sure start centres, an assault on child poverty, the Labour Party
:36:47. > :36:53.got itself in contention for government. I entirely accept the
:36:54. > :36:56.polls do not make thrilling reading for Labour politicians on Sunday
:36:57. > :37:00.morning, but it means people like me have to work harder because we are
:37:01. > :37:03.part of something bigger than an individual, we are in the business
:37:04. > :37:07.of changing things for the British people and if we do not do that, if
:37:08. > :37:11.we do not focus on that, we are letting people down. Is Labour
:37:12. > :37:19.preparing for an early election question Billy burqa? Reports in the
:37:20. > :37:24.press of a war chest as macro for an early election? The general election
:37:25. > :37:28.coordinator called for a general election when Theresa May became
:37:29. > :37:34.Prime Minister. We are investing in staff and the organisational
:37:35. > :37:37.capability we need. By the way, the Labour Party staff do brilliant
:37:38. > :37:42.work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter having a go at them. They do
:37:43. > :37:43.tremendous work. Whenever the election comes, they will be ready.
:37:44. > :37:51.Jon Ashworth, thank you. The trains that could
:37:52. > :38:10.hit the buffers before Why the new South West Trains
:38:11. > :38:14.franchise means that millions of pounds of new rolling stock
:38:15. > :38:17.will be shunted off to the sidings Firstly, let us meet
:38:18. > :38:22.the two politicians with me Rowenna Davis contested
:38:23. > :38:25.the Southampton Itchen seat And Sir Gerald Howarth is
:38:26. > :38:31.the Conservative MP for Aldershot. Now, the story dominating this week,
:38:32. > :38:39.as it probably will for the next two years, was Brexit,
:38:40. > :38:42.of course, and the long-awaited triggering of Article 50 -
:38:43. > :38:45.the UK's divorce papers, So just how were voters
:38:46. > :38:49.in the South reacting? I am thrilled, I voted
:38:50. > :38:52.Brexit and I am hoping that it will all go well,
:38:53. > :38:57.no trouble from these Remoaners. Personally, I voted to come out
:38:58. > :39:00.of Europe, or out of the EU - not out of Europe -
:39:01. > :39:03.so I do not see any It has not changed my lifestyle,
:39:04. > :39:07.let us put it that way! Way too slow, it has been
:39:08. > :39:12.a ridiculous situation. No matter which way people
:39:13. > :39:15.voted, we have all got Yes, there will be implications
:39:16. > :39:18.but there is no point trying to fight against it,
:39:19. > :39:21.the decision has been made. We all have to take it
:39:22. > :39:25.as it comes, I think. We need to rediscover our
:39:26. > :39:27.identity as a country, rather than as Europeans,
:39:28. > :39:30.because we have got an awful lot of history and an awful
:39:31. > :39:32.lot to offer the world, and somehow it has been
:39:33. > :39:43.dissipated, I feel. It has taken a long time to actually
:39:44. > :39:49.get to the point of triggering it... And some people say,
:39:50. > :39:51.well, "why did we not get But now that we have heard
:39:52. > :39:55.from the European Union, everyone has their ducks in a row,
:39:56. > :39:57.Rowenna, safeguards against unfair competition through fiscal,
:39:58. > :39:59.social and environmental dumping, Do you think that's genuine or do
:40:00. > :40:13.you think there is still some sort Yes, whenever you have that massive
:40:14. > :40:17.shake-up, you run the risk of losing some of that regulation. But just go
:40:18. > :40:22.back to the wider question of what we can expect from Brexit. A lot of
:40:23. > :40:26.people are saying, can we get what we want? My feeling is that if the
:40:27. > :40:30.EU gave us everything that we asked for, if they gave us all of the
:40:31. > :40:33.trade that we wanted with no strings attached, it would not be enough for
:40:34. > :40:38.the people who voted Brexit, because when people voted to take back
:40:39. > :40:43.control, they were asking for, you know, more jobs in the north, more
:40:44. > :40:47.housing in the south, they were voting for a reinstatement of
:40:48. > :40:51.patriotism, every tonne of manufacturing, they were asking for
:40:52. > :40:56.a new vision of Britain, and at the moment, even... You are putting
:40:57. > :41:00.words in the mouth of the people who voted to leave and suggesting that
:41:01. > :41:05.this or that they wanted. Well, maybe not, but if you look at the
:41:06. > :41:08.polls, you will see that what people are after, there was something and
:41:09. > :41:11.that's talking about taking back control which was greater agency
:41:12. > :41:15.over your country and your life, and I think that if you just go for a
:41:16. > :41:19.trade deal, that will not satisfy the people who voted Brexit, because
:41:20. > :41:27.breaking down the polling numbers on that and the difficulties and
:41:28. > :41:29.concerns they are talking about go much deeper than the surface level
:41:30. > :41:32.Theresa May talks about this a lot. Theresa May talks about this a lot.
:41:33. > :41:35.She has said that we need to transform Britain, this is not just
:41:36. > :41:38.about Britain -- Europe, but her actions have not done enough so far
:41:39. > :41:43.to build the kind of Britain that meet people who voted Brexit
:41:44. > :41:47.satisfied. So you are telling me whatever she does will be a failure?
:41:48. > :41:51.Not necessarily, she had a choice, she could perform a radical agenda,
:41:52. > :41:56.but if you look at what she has done since taking office, does not sound
:41:57. > :41:59.much different from that of what David Cameron was talking about. You
:42:00. > :42:03.will tell me it is going to be a great success? It will, of course,
:42:04. > :42:10.it will be. But not everyone will be happy. We face a great challenge and
:42:11. > :42:16.the next two years but I must argue with Rowenna's analysis. She is
:42:17. > :42:24.correct in that the Prime Minister has been saying that to the House of
:42:25. > :42:28.Commons last Wednesday. People want a return of sovereignty and that is
:42:29. > :42:32.why they voted to leave, they felt that what they voted for, and 19
:42:33. > :42:37.Sunday five, the common market of goods and services has since become
:42:38. > :42:43.an organisation that turns you into a superstate. Overwhelmingly it was
:42:44. > :42:51.to do with recovering control over our borders, in terms of
:42:52. > :42:55.immigration... Would they be happy to pay a lot of money to the single
:42:56. > :43:00.market to get sovereignty back? We will not be paying 60 billion euros,
:43:01. > :43:04.that is a complete fabrication. That is what they are asking for, isn't
:43:05. > :43:08.it? Negotiations have only just started and to answer your initial
:43:09. > :43:15.question, the reason why they did not send the letter to Donald Tusk
:43:16. > :43:18.before this week is because, first and foremost, Theresa May came into
:43:19. > :43:23.government unexpectedly. There was no blueprint for what would happen
:43:24. > :43:29.deal with... But what about your deal with... But what about your
:43:30. > :43:31.former Prime Minister? It was, what it was. To her credit, Theresa May
:43:32. > :43:34.said at the outset that he intended said at the outset that he intended
:43:35. > :43:39.to invoke Article 50 by March 31 to invoke Article 50 by March 31
:43:40. > :43:44.2017. It might have been evoked to... But we had the intervention of
:43:45. > :43:47.the divisional Court followed by the Supreme Court. So we could not do
:43:48. > :43:52.anything into that was out of the way. We will have to wait for the
:43:53. > :43:55.elections now in Europe. We have passed the essential legislation
:43:56. > :43:59.with strong support from the Labour Party. But you are correct,
:44:00. > :44:04.elections are coming up next month in France, and elections in
:44:05. > :44:08.September in Germany, they are absolutely petrified about Marine Le
:44:09. > :44:12.Pen and the front Nationale are doing well in France and another
:44:13. > :44:19.rival party on the right wing doing well in Germany. We do not know what
:44:20. > :44:23.will happen until those settled. But what I want to know is what has
:44:24. > :44:26.Theresa May done since taking office to change this country that David
:44:27. > :44:31.Cameron was not already agreeing with, what is this new vision? The
:44:32. > :44:36.British public have said we need to remake our country, where we need to
:44:37. > :44:40.be, and Theresa May has taught radical but her policy agenda has
:44:41. > :44:44.been exactly the same. People criticise Labour a lot but at least
:44:45. > :44:48.we have a different policy agenda. I think Theresa May has set up an
:44:49. > :44:53.ambitious programme which he set out on the steps of damaged when
:44:54. > :44:58.assuming office, as recently as the end of last year. But these things
:44:59. > :45:02.take time, we have the new Chancellor of the Exchequer who is
:45:03. > :45:09.trying to ensure that we reorientate so that the just about managing
:45:10. > :45:13.people, we look after them, we have a new housing white paper to help
:45:14. > :45:17.people on housing, we are looking at tax regime, to help those on middle
:45:18. > :45:22.incomes... But it is a very challenging agenda, the good news is
:45:23. > :45:24.And the one thing I know from having And the one thing I know from having
:45:25. > :45:28.served with Margaret Thatcher when served with Margaret Thatcher when
:45:29. > :45:31.she was Prime Minister was that women do tend to do what they are
:45:32. > :45:37.going to see what they are going to do. I cannot agree with that! We
:45:38. > :45:42.will have to leave that discussion there are!
:45:43. > :45:44.After two decades running trains across southern England,
:45:45. > :45:46.Stagecoach has lost the South West Trains contract.
:45:47. > :45:49.In comes a new group in which the Hong Kong Government
:45:50. > :45:51.has a substantial stake - just the latest foreign state-owned
:45:52. > :45:55.We're promised new trains, more and faster services.
:45:56. > :45:57.But as our transport correspondent Paul Clifton reports,
:45:58. > :45:59.the deal also involves throwing away trains that are brand-new.
:46:00. > :46:01.Yes, this was a complete surprise, not least to Stagecoach,
:46:02. > :46:04.which has run the trains here for 21 years.
:46:05. > :46:06.This morning there are more than 100 people on it.
:46:07. > :46:10.The first privatised scheduled passenger train on the railways
:46:11. > :46:20.I was on the very first train with the Transport Secretary of the day.
:46:21. > :46:22.I think over the next year you will see a progressive
:46:23. > :46:25.improvement to passenger services and more people coming
:46:26. > :46:28.Since then, South West Trains has been the only operator
:46:29. > :46:32.Now, in come FirstGroup, which runs Great Western
:46:33. > :46:38.with Hong Kong-owned MTR, which will run Crossrail.
:46:39. > :46:40.The unions point out that foreign government-owned companies now
:46:41. > :46:48.have a stake in three quarters of the UK's passenger
:46:49. > :46:54.trains and the UK's government has none at all.
:46:55. > :46:57.French, German, Italian, Dutch, Belgian, Qatari,
:46:58. > :46:59.Singaporean and Chinese interests all have a stake in
:47:00. > :47:13.We are promised 90 new trains and faster journey times
:47:14. > :47:18.That can only be achieved by missing out some of the stops in between.
:47:19. > :47:21.Next month, the first of these brand-new trains will enter service
:47:22. > :47:29.But FirstGroup does not want them, it has decided to reject them before
:47:30. > :47:36.the German factory has even finished building them.
:47:37. > :47:41.Two years from now, it will replace them with yet more new trains.
:47:42. > :47:45.FirstGroup does not want these either, the suburban carriages
:47:46. > :47:50.are right in the middle of a full technical rebuild with new motors.
:47:51. > :47:58.So too are the trains which currently run to Reading.
:47:59. > :48:01.They were refurbished only last year.
:48:02. > :48:05.So, why are hundreds of brand-new and recently refurbished carriages
:48:06. > :48:15.They will probably end up sitting in sidings.
:48:16. > :48:18.Yet, at the same time, the new company will bring
:48:19. > :48:25.These trains, first unveiled in the 1980s, will be
:48:26. > :48:29.brought out of retirement, refurbished and put back to work
:48:30. > :48:32.on the Portsmouth line, replacing trains that
:48:33. > :48:39.South West Trains rejected them 15 years ago.
:48:40. > :48:42.The cost of new trains has tumbled, mostly because the cost of borrowing
:48:43. > :48:49.But manufacturers from Germany, Spain, Italy and China
:48:50. > :48:54.Hundreds of thousands of pounds have been knocked off
:48:55. > :48:59.For the government, it is like walking into a car
:49:00. > :49:01.showroom and ordering a brand-new vehicle straight from the factory
:49:02. > :49:05.for less than the price of a car that's already sitting
:49:06. > :49:13.Who pays for the ones we leave behind?
:49:14. > :49:24.Ultimately, of course, we all do, through our rail fares.
:49:25. > :49:33.Who is going to pay for it? ?200 million of investment... It is a
:49:34. > :49:39.very good question, Peter. You should know, Chris Grayling Gosnell!
:49:40. > :49:43.I am sure that he does but I have actually explode as following a
:49:44. > :49:48.report that I saw ever in the week. I explored this with First Great
:49:49. > :49:53.Western and I understand that they are going to accept the 19 brand-new
:49:54. > :49:59.trains but they want to harmonise their fleet. Quite a lot of logic in
:50:00. > :50:04.that, and so at some point they will hand them back because they will not
:50:05. > :50:08.owned by rolling stock companies. -- owned by rolling stock companies. --
:50:09. > :50:17.90 brand-new trains. British companies. But someone has to take
:50:18. > :50:23.the hit. As far as I can see, it will not be the train operators in
:50:24. > :50:28.this case. So it will not be the passengers but someone will have to
:50:29. > :50:31.pay for it. It will not be the passengers. You are absolutely
:50:32. > :50:35.issue. We do need to get to the issue. We do need to get to the
:50:36. > :50:40.bottom of it and we do need the reassurance. And all our
:50:41. > :50:44.constituents need the reinsurance that they will not have to pay
:50:45. > :50:48.because there is no subsidy on this franchise, this is a self-sustaining
:50:49. > :50:54.franchise. South West Trains have had it for 22 years, they do not, I
:50:55. > :50:59.think, have done a bad job. They are well run company. But the Secretary
:51:00. > :51:05.of State told me during the week that when they got this bit in from
:51:06. > :51:12.First Great Western MTR, that they thought it was a substantial win.
:51:13. > :51:15.They are proposing 22,000 extra seats every peak hour morning into
:51:16. > :51:22.Waterloo, 30,000 extra passenger seat peak hour out of Waterloo,
:51:23. > :51:28.Wi-Fi access on every station and clean, lots of smart cards... 40
:51:29. > :51:32.minutes faster from Weymouth... These are very ambitious, we need to
:51:33. > :51:35.know that they can deliver. They are ambitious but there must be a
:51:36. > :51:39.massive change to our real wives, you are always packed in like
:51:40. > :51:43.cattle, they are too slow and not more Duncan Goodhew any other
:51:44. > :51:48.European country, it is ridiculous. Incredibly overpriced. Our solution
:51:49. > :51:52.to this massive problem seems to be, for me, let us make one large
:51:53. > :51:55.company seeking the profit motive, run it instead of another large
:51:56. > :51:59.company seeking to make profit out of the railways and if you ask me,
:52:00. > :52:07.there needs to be a much bigger structural change in the way that we
:52:08. > :52:10.run our babies if you want to make that kind of skill or change. This
:52:11. > :52:12.franchising system has delivered big benefits, faster trains, more
:52:13. > :52:15.places, all of the rest of it, just like that. This is what is being
:52:16. > :52:20.promised. No, it has already been delivered. Anyone who uses the
:52:21. > :52:27.trains will know this, there is not a sense of the passenger boys being
:52:28. > :52:29.a genuinely listened to, there is no worker representation listens to and
:52:30. > :52:33.Hong Kong take over our new set of Hong Kong take over our new set of
:52:34. > :52:40.railways will not change that. So would you rather nationalise it?
:52:41. > :52:42.That is the policy of your party... That is interesting, that could
:52:43. > :52:51.work, because it will work for the interest of the public. But if you
:52:52. > :52:55.have one third of the company being done by passengers, another thought
:52:56. > :53:00.by workers and so on, you could have a better integrated model. Would
:53:01. > :53:04.that really what? This new method suggest he will have faster and more
:53:05. > :53:07.trains running. I do not think that will happen but if you had a balance
:53:08. > :53:13.of interest from people who actually use the railways and ran them, you
:53:14. > :53:16.would have more likely to have a better service than just being
:53:17. > :53:24.operated by a larger company. We will move on from trains, thank you.
:53:25. > :53:27.However, many bumps there may or may not be on the road to Brexit,
:53:28. > :53:30.one thing we do know for sure is just how many bumps
:53:31. > :53:33.there are in the roads in the South on account of that bane of every
:53:34. > :53:39.We sent our reporter Frankie Peck out to conduct an extraordinarily
:53:40. > :53:40.scientific experiment, which you probably shouldn't try
:53:41. > :53:44.for yourselves without extensive preparations!
:53:45. > :53:46.They have always been the scourge of the motorist...
:53:47. > :53:48.no matter how big or small they appear on the roads,
:53:49. > :53:50.with what seems to be increasing frequency.
:53:51. > :53:53.It feels like Groundhog Day, there's yet another report out this
:53:54. > :53:54.week about the poor state of our roads.
:53:55. > :53:57.This year's annual local authority road maintenance survey has said it
:53:58. > :54:00.would take about ?3.81 billion to get the roads here
:54:01. > :54:13.So, we thought we would do a bit an experiment.
:54:14. > :54:15.Take one cup of coffee in the footwell...
:54:16. > :54:18.and we will see if there is any left after a spin around Southampton.
:54:19. > :54:21.Obviously, a very scientific and foolproof experiment!
:54:22. > :54:23.The annual local authority road maintenance survey has said
:54:24. > :54:26.that the poor state of the roads is down to an ageing network,
:54:27. > :54:40.decades of underfunding, increased traffic and wetter winters.
:54:41. > :54:42.Potholes are a constant issue for councils and although the survey
:54:43. > :54:45.reveals the number filled has dropped for the second year running,
:54:46. > :54:48.a huge 1.7 million were still filled in England and Wales last year -
:54:49. > :54:56.So, how did the roads in Southampton fare?
:54:57. > :55:10.Well, it looks like I might need to go and get another cup of coffee.
:55:11. > :55:19.Good job she had that Tupperware to hand! Unicycle, is that right? And
:55:20. > :55:21.you are fed up with potholes? Yes, and being a political candidate for
:55:22. > :55:25.the Labour Party over the last few years has taught me that this is the
:55:26. > :55:31.biggest issue on the doorstops that there is. People are worried about
:55:32. > :55:36.this because if you are a cyclist, it is dangerous, you're a swerving,
:55:37. > :55:38.it could damage your vehicle, if you are disabled or crossing the road
:55:39. > :55:41.with a pram it is awkward. Then you are filling the men at the moment
:55:42. > :55:49.you get an asphalt covering it over the top and quickly comes back out
:55:50. > :55:52.again. So this must be dealt with. The article I read this morning has
:55:53. > :55:54.replace roads every ten, 20 years, replace roads every ten, 20 years,
:55:55. > :55:57.they need to be completely resurfaced. In England, the average
:55:58. > :56:03.number is 55 years. Storing up trouble them? Yes. Not doing enough?
:56:04. > :56:08.It is public money and we are still trying to cut the deficit we
:56:09. > :56:12.inherited from the disastrous policies of the Labour Party. Even
:56:13. > :56:16.you sound bored of that line! I am bored with having to do this. The
:56:17. > :56:20.government recognises this is a problem. That is why they have
:56:21. > :56:26.earmarked ?250 million emergency money, which they... But is that
:56:27. > :56:33.enough so many of our roads need doing? It is designed to deal with
:56:34. > :56:39.10,000 potholes... I agree with you, I was two tires easily to a pothole
:56:40. > :56:44.and you are quite right, filling them with,... It is not an economy
:56:45. > :56:51.as everybody else is suffering. The NHS... People swerving in the front
:56:52. > :56:56.of things! Hampshire has 240 miles of roads it is seeking to operate...
:56:57. > :57:03.Just coming here today, I observed the potholes and I 2am getting fed
:57:04. > :57:05.up with it. Let us make common cause. Part of this is public money
:57:06. > :57:08.but the other thing that makes me but the other thing that makes me
:57:09. > :57:12.angry is when you think about certain delivery companies that get
:57:13. > :57:17.done for tax avoidance, not paying their fair share for the roads that
:57:18. > :57:22.they are clearly using. You need more accountability. Thank you.
:57:23. > :57:25.Now our regular round-up of the political week
:57:26. > :57:32.Here is an unusual thing - an empty hospital bed!
:57:33. > :57:36.But Bournemouth's new wing is just for private patients.
:57:37. > :57:39.They're the latest NHS hospital in the South to offer private beds
:57:40. > :57:41.now generating tens of millions of pounds a year.
:57:42. > :57:44.No NHS patient should be displaced as a consequence of the private
:57:45. > :57:50.?100 million of taxpayers' money is being paid in compensation
:57:51. > :57:53.It is over a botched tendering for the decommissioning
:57:54. > :57:58.of Magnox nuclear reactors, including Harwell in Oxfordshire.
:57:59. > :58:00.Plans were unveiled this week to transform the disused
:58:01. > :58:03.Fawley Power Station chimney and turn it into a public
:58:04. > :58:17.It is taller than Brighton's i360 and Portsmouth's Spinnaker Tower.
:58:18. > :58:20.The plan is to build a new town with the fast ferry connection.
:58:21. > :58:22.Looking down on Portsmouth, which is always important.
:58:23. > :58:25.Finally, Didcot has been named the most average place in the UK.
:58:26. > :58:44.This was a fascinating study that they did, they crunched all sorts of
:58:45. > :58:47.data, looked at all the social local factors, and the reason was that
:58:48. > :58:51.help politicians get out of their bubble, they said, understand the
:58:52. > :58:55.lives of real people and to go to Didcot. Do you think it is difficult
:58:56. > :59:00.for politicians to get out of their bubble and see life as normal
:59:01. > :59:06.people, people in Didcot? I think that we do get out of the bubble and
:59:07. > :59:11.we all hold surgeries. We have so much direct exposure to the problems
:59:12. > :59:16.that people face, we move around our constituencies, very normal and
:59:17. > :59:21.Aldershot... More so than in Didcot? I am struggling to get the terms of
:59:22. > :59:26.the idea that to be normal you have to go to Didcot! But we must forget
:59:27. > :59:31.that Didcot is the spiritual home of the Great Western railway and
:59:32. > :59:36.special place in the corner of some special place in the corner of some
:59:37. > :59:41.of our hearts. Do you want to live somewhere that is normal? What is
:59:42. > :59:43.normal? What is the most abnormal place you could live? What game
:59:44. > :59:48.bottom of the list, that would be interesting. I must agree, it is too
:59:49. > :59:52.easy to just say, politicians that any bubble because having that
:59:53. > :59:55.constituency and having the surgery is Nina Edge are more face-to-face
:59:56. > :59:59.than the public than many other professions and so, we should stick
:00:00. > :00:04.up for them. But if you were not, would go into this place but the
:00:05. > :00:09.clipboard make you more normal or just make a stranger? To study the
:00:10. > :00:15.normal people, I am not sure what -- that is what the average person does
:00:16. > :00:17.on a Saturday afternoon. There was a 1940s American from where the
:00:18. > :00:21.researchers found that the most average place in America and that is
:00:22. > :00:27.desperately valuable. You can see the point that it is valuable to
:00:28. > :00:33.know what most people think. I would also like to know, what is the
:00:34. > :00:39.definition of normal? Normal for you... Different to normal for
:00:40. > :00:41.Rowenna... What measures are using? There are more common ground between
:00:42. > :00:48.us than you might have originally thought! There is a diverse Phil
:00:49. > :00:53.Hughes in the UK. What acts as normal? I am not sure. The fact that
:00:54. > :01:04.Didcot has Tom Pope must tell us something about the survey.
:01:05. > :01:07.So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes
:01:08. > :01:11.Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?
:01:12. > :01:13.And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,
:01:14. > :01:25.To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford
:01:26. > :01:30.by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.
:01:31. > :01:39.Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will
:01:40. > :01:44.it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can
:01:45. > :01:50.predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning
:01:51. > :01:55.with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not
:01:56. > :02:02.mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.
:02:03. > :02:12.Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in
:02:13. > :02:16.business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why
:02:17. > :02:21.we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under
:02:22. > :02:26.Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you
:02:27. > :02:30.do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up
:02:31. > :02:37.lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you
:02:38. > :02:41.used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get
:02:42. > :02:45.back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a
:02:46. > :02:50.mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in
:02:51. > :02:55.this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places
:02:56. > :03:00.like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the
:03:01. > :03:03.country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the
:03:04. > :03:12.Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic
:03:13. > :03:15.areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well
:03:16. > :03:22.which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part
:03:23. > :03:26.as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has
:03:27. > :03:31.taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is
:03:32. > :03:37.fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are
:03:38. > :03:41.discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if
:03:42. > :03:49.they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.
:03:50. > :03:53.If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your
:03:54. > :03:57.vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of
:03:58. > :04:01.representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we
:04:02. > :04:10.have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124
:04:11. > :04:15.seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality
:04:16. > :04:18.of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very
:04:19. > :04:24.effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is
:04:25. > :04:29.not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,
:04:30. > :04:34.that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it
:04:35. > :04:39.not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the
:04:40. > :04:44.debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is
:04:45. > :04:48.something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people
:04:49. > :04:51.the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually
:04:52. > :04:57.produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the
:04:58. > :05:02.foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the
:05:03. > :05:07.Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social
:05:08. > :05:12.democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I
:05:13. > :05:15.do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party
:05:16. > :05:21.together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own
:05:22. > :05:28.decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you
:05:29. > :05:33.saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a
:05:34. > :05:37.consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing
:05:38. > :05:42.could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is
:05:43. > :05:49.moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in
:05:50. > :05:54.2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look
:05:55. > :06:01.at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax
:06:02. > :06:05.changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to
:06:06. > :06:10.?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate
:06:11. > :06:16.threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from
:06:17. > :06:25.currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,
:06:26. > :06:31.freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax
:06:32. > :06:36.credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an
:06:37. > :06:42.impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two
:06:43. > :06:50.children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched
:06:51. > :06:56.the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit
:06:57. > :07:04.changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third
:07:05. > :07:09.or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The
:07:10. > :07:13.Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It
:07:14. > :07:19.is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I
:07:20. > :07:23.have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith
:07:24. > :07:27.Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody
:07:28. > :07:31.should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the
:07:32. > :07:38.state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by
:07:39. > :07:41.better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly
:07:42. > :07:49.less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have
:07:50. > :07:53.to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her
:07:54. > :07:58.other language and the role of the government and the state when she
:07:59. > :08:02.sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government
:08:03. > :08:06.conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she
:08:07. > :08:14.says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not
:08:15. > :08:18.what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would
:08:19. > :08:23.not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a
:08:24. > :08:30.much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of
:08:31. > :08:34.progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when
:08:35. > :08:37.George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they
:08:38. > :08:41.were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this
:08:42. > :08:46.government was going to meet the demand for public services when it
:08:47. > :08:50.has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do
:08:51. > :08:56.now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare
:08:57. > :09:00.issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution
:09:01. > :09:05.Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which
:09:06. > :09:09.has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from
:09:10. > :09:14.the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.
:09:15. > :09:18.Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the
:09:19. > :09:23.losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem
:09:24. > :09:27.for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her
:09:28. > :09:32.narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about
:09:33. > :09:37.managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have
:09:38. > :09:40.at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still
:09:41. > :09:47.saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and
:09:48. > :09:50.spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle
:09:51. > :09:54.classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely
:09:55. > :09:58.going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to
:09:59. > :10:01.mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was
:10:02. > :10:06.told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came
:10:07. > :10:12.up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions
:10:13. > :10:15.involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and
:10:16. > :10:20.benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to
:10:21. > :10:24.fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you
:10:25. > :10:28.find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance
:10:29. > :10:34.rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of
:10:35. > :10:39.the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an
:10:40. > :10:45.early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an
:10:46. > :10:49.albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in
:10:50. > :10:54.income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel
:10:55. > :10:57.duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going
:10:58. > :11:04.to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they
:11:05. > :11:08.end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call
:11:09. > :11:13.stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up
:11:14. > :11:18.in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of
:11:19. > :11:24.the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to
:11:25. > :11:27.have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would
:11:28. > :11:31.like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best
:11:32. > :11:36.argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at
:11:37. > :11:41.the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives
:11:42. > :11:46.feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the
:11:47. > :11:52.need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very
:11:53. > :11:56.interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is
:11:57. > :12:03.trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and
:12:04. > :12:08.spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.
:12:09. > :12:14.Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that
:12:15. > :12:18.demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The
:12:19. > :12:25.Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to
:12:26. > :12:31.India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not
:12:32. > :12:36.know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The
:12:37. > :12:43.prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest
:12:44. > :12:47.answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one
:12:48. > :12:50.because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms
:12:51. > :12:54.will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to
:12:55. > :12:58.trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always
:12:59. > :13:02.go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in
:13:03. > :13:08.a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.
:13:09. > :13:14.Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get
:13:15. > :13:17.out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day
:13:18. > :13:21.after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and
:13:22. > :13:28.they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal
:13:29. > :13:32.talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a
:13:33. > :13:37.symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.
:13:38. > :13:43.Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have
:13:44. > :13:48.run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the
:13:49. > :13:52.Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the
:13:53. > :14:21.Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.
:14:22. > :14:24.Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.
:14:25. > :14:27.As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,
:14:28. > :14:33.we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"