0:00:36 > 0:00:38Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
0:00:38 > 0:00:39I'm Sarah Smith.
0:00:39 > 0:00:41And this is your guide to all the big stories that
0:00:41 > 0:00:46are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.
0:00:46 > 0:00:48Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget
0:00:48 > 0:00:51on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,
0:00:51 > 0:00:54show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -
0:00:54 > 0:00:59but can he change the direction of the country and his government?
0:00:59 > 0:01:01Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has
0:01:01 > 0:01:02some advice of his own.
0:01:02 > 0:01:05He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit
0:01:05 > 0:01:09- he joins me live to explain why.
0:01:09 > 0:01:12The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating
0:01:12 > 0:01:15with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking
0:01:15 > 0:01:18a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses
0:01:18 > 0:01:21about Brexit.
0:01:21 > 0:01:25And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,
0:01:25 > 0:01:27we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,
0:01:27 > 0:01:29finding out who people most trust with the economy -
0:01:29 > 0:01:40Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?
0:01:40 > 0:01:42How she comes across all wants to charge per visit,
0:01:49 > 0:01:51All that coming up in the programme.
0:01:51 > 0:01:54And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised
0:01:54 > 0:01:57not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -
0:01:57 > 0:02:00although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -
0:02:00 > 0:02:03it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.
0:02:03 > 0:02:06Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news
0:02:06 > 0:02:08this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's
0:02:08 > 0:02:11plenty of speculation about what might or not might be
0:02:11 > 0:02:13in Philip Hammond's Budget.
0:02:13 > 0:02:16The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,
0:02:16 > 0:02:20including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.
0:02:20 > 0:02:23He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,
0:02:23 > 0:02:25where he talks about plans to reach the target of building
0:02:25 > 0:02:29300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city
0:02:29 > 0:02:30the size of Leeds.
0:02:30 > 0:02:33That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal
0:02:33 > 0:02:36Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out
0:02:36 > 0:02:39a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.
0:02:39 > 0:02:42The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer
0:02:42 > 0:02:45a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.
0:02:45 > 0:02:48But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.
0:02:48 > 0:02:51He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency
0:02:51 > 0:02:53budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.
0:02:53 > 0:02:57So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond
0:02:57 > 0:02:59and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning
0:02:59 > 0:03:03on the Andrew Marr Show.
0:03:03 > 0:03:06I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,
0:03:06 > 0:03:09and we have to embrace the opportunities that
0:03:09 > 0:03:10a post-Brexit world will offer.
0:03:10 > 0:03:13They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,
0:03:13 > 0:03:16huge technological evolution.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown
0:03:19 > 0:03:22time and time again that we're up for these challenges.
0:03:22 > 0:03:25For many people out there, this is a depression.
0:03:25 > 0:03:29We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.
0:03:29 > 0:03:30Nurses, for example.
0:03:30 > 0:03:33We've had people who are now...
0:03:33 > 0:03:381.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest
0:03:38 > 0:03:39country in the world.
0:03:39 > 0:03:47That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.
0:03:47 > 0:03:52We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,
0:03:52 > 0:03:56but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk
0:03:56 > 0:04:01to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to
0:04:01 > 0:04:05set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we
0:04:05 > 0:04:11expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor
0:04:11 > 0:04:15across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think
0:04:15 > 0:04:24we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A
0:04:24 > 0:04:26short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.
0:04:26 > 0:04:32They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to
0:04:32 > 0:04:36capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on
0:04:36 > 0:04:41earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are
0:04:41 > 0:04:49good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,
0:04:49 > 0:04:53Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get
0:04:53 > 0:04:57anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory
0:04:57 > 0:05:06MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have
0:05:06 > 0:05:09seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting
0:05:09 > 0:05:14in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment
0:05:14 > 0:05:18for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical
0:05:18 > 0:05:23through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold
0:05:23 > 0:05:29ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their
0:05:29 > 0:05:33Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing
0:05:33 > 0:05:38something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for
0:05:38 > 0:05:42how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with
0:05:42 > 0:05:47everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation
0:05:47 > 0:05:53for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for
0:05:53 > 0:05:57economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the
0:05:57 > 0:06:01issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up
0:06:01 > 0:06:06with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they
0:06:06 > 0:06:11absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls
0:06:11 > 0:06:16apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from
0:06:16 > 0:06:19Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them
0:06:19 > 0:06:24something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different
0:06:24 > 0:06:27people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and
0:06:27 > 0:06:36dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical
0:06:36 > 0:06:44terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic
0:06:44 > 0:06:50cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if
0:06:50 > 0:06:55you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,
0:06:55 > 0:07:00if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be
0:07:00 > 0:07:06worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn
0:07:06 > 0:07:12on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,
0:07:12 > 0:07:16and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of
0:07:16 > 0:07:19probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in
0:07:19 > 0:07:24the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds
0:07:24 > 0:07:29impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the
0:07:29 > 0:07:35last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much
0:07:35 > 0:07:40can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it
0:07:40 > 0:07:47is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the
0:07:47 > 0:07:51party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,
0:07:51 > 0:08:01damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction
0:08:01 > 0:08:08in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high
0:08:08 > 0:08:12inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will
0:08:12 > 0:08:18probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will
0:08:18 > 0:08:23pick up on some of this later in the programme.
0:08:23 > 0:08:25Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week
0:08:25 > 0:08:28he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised
0:08:28 > 0:08:30the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences
0:08:30 > 0:08:34of leaving the EU.
0:08:34 > 0:08:38Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty
0:08:38 > 0:08:47radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the
0:08:47 > 0:08:51London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we
0:08:51 > 0:08:56will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to
0:08:56 > 0:09:00the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we
0:09:00 > 0:09:05have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It
0:09:05 > 0:09:09is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the
0:09:09 > 0:09:15modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,
0:09:15 > 0:09:19which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what
0:09:19 > 0:09:26would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.
0:09:26 > 0:09:32The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the
0:09:32 > 0:09:35classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free
0:09:35 > 0:09:40trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting
0:09:40 > 0:09:48a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you
0:09:48 > 0:09:52right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the
0:09:52 > 0:09:55Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on
0:09:55 > 0:10:01the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury
0:10:01 > 0:10:05have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the
0:10:05 > 0:10:09nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.
0:10:09 > 0:10:14These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the
0:10:14 > 0:10:21euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but
0:10:21 > 0:10:27it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,
0:10:27 > 0:10:36who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the
0:10:36 > 0:10:40exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past
0:10:40 > 0:10:45doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the
0:10:45 > 0:10:49Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to
0:10:49 > 0:10:54you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its
0:10:54 > 0:11:00forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The
0:11:00 > 0:11:03short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most
0:11:03 > 0:11:09dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of
0:11:09 > 0:11:12political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the
0:11:12 > 0:11:17same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.
0:11:17 > 0:11:21You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,
0:11:21 > 0:11:25and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the
0:11:25 > 0:11:30Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an
0:11:30 > 0:11:36enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,
0:11:36 > 0:11:41his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to
0:11:41 > 0:11:45the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to
0:11:45 > 0:11:52change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he
0:11:52 > 0:11:56is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very
0:11:56 > 0:12:02encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive
0:12:02 > 0:12:07approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very
0:12:07 > 0:12:14close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury
0:12:14 > 0:12:18and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an
0:12:18 > 0:12:22exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad
0:12:22 > 0:12:27thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather
0:12:27 > 0:12:33than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in
0:12:33 > 0:12:38absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.
0:12:38 > 0:12:42When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has
0:12:42 > 0:12:49to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the
0:12:49 > 0:12:52referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been
0:12:52 > 0:12:57made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This
0:12:57 > 0:13:02only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that
0:13:02 > 0:13:09voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put
0:13:09 > 0:13:15£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the
0:13:15 > 0:13:21NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was
0:13:21 > 0:13:26won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on
0:13:26 > 0:13:31that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on
0:13:31 > 0:13:35implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The
0:13:35 > 0:13:40Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we
0:13:40 > 0:13:44understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU
0:13:44 > 0:13:48demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for
0:13:48 > 0:13:54things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the
0:13:54 > 0:14:00exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government
0:14:00 > 0:14:04will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,
0:14:04 > 0:14:09or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be
0:14:09 > 0:14:14part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to
0:14:14 > 0:14:19choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to
0:14:19 > 0:14:23choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive
0:14:23 > 0:14:27schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the
0:14:27 > 0:14:36government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?
0:14:36 > 0:14:41It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we
0:14:41 > 0:14:48left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the
0:14:48 > 0:14:54remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against
0:14:54 > 0:14:58paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would
0:14:58 > 0:15:06be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have
0:15:06 > 0:15:10new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal
0:15:10 > 0:15:13situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down
0:15:13 > 0:15:17on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face
0:15:17 > 0:15:21of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned
0:15:21 > 0:15:29if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50
0:15:29 > 0:15:40is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it
0:15:40 > 0:15:44makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in
0:15:44 > 0:15:47same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of
0:15:47 > 0:15:52view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you
0:15:52 > 0:15:54would.
0:15:54 > 0:15:56We're joined in the studio by the former minister
0:15:56 > 0:15:57Stephen Hammond.
0:15:57 > 0:16:00He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member
0:16:00 > 0:16:03of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named
0:16:03 > 0:16:04as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph
0:16:04 > 0:16:07this week - lucky him.
0:16:07 > 0:16:12I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up
0:16:12 > 0:16:20on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a
0:16:20 > 0:16:26rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it
0:16:26 > 0:16:31is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the
0:16:31 > 0:16:35negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we
0:16:35 > 0:16:42expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March
0:16:42 > 0:16:472019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do
0:16:47 > 0:16:52harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those
0:16:52 > 0:16:56negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a
0:16:56 > 0:17:00couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019
0:17:00 > 0:17:05and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing
0:17:05 > 0:17:11with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government
0:17:11 > 0:17:14said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the
0:17:14 > 0:17:21advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by
0:17:21 > 0:17:24somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to
0:17:24 > 0:17:29be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You
0:17:29 > 0:17:32did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important
0:17:32 > 0:17:38that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to
0:17:38 > 0:17:42set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time
0:17:42 > 0:17:47available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal
0:17:47 > 0:17:53between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be
0:17:53 > 0:17:57interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British
0:17:57 > 0:18:02electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote
0:18:02 > 0:18:05to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we
0:18:05 > 0:18:10would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get
0:18:10 > 0:18:14through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be
0:18:14 > 0:18:18completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I
0:18:18 > 0:18:23don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and
0:18:23 > 0:18:29getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to
0:18:29 > 0:18:32settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount
0:18:32 > 0:18:39that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy
0:18:39 > 0:18:43for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick
0:18:43 > 0:18:48to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our
0:18:48 > 0:18:53liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20
0:18:53 > 0:18:57billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of
0:18:57 > 0:19:01the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade
0:19:01 > 0:19:07deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this
0:19:07 > 0:19:12that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're
0:19:12 > 0:19:18prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,
0:19:18 > 0:19:28that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The
0:19:28 > 0:19:32Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we
0:19:32 > 0:19:39don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has
0:19:39 > 0:19:45about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal
0:19:45 > 0:19:49requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the
0:19:49 > 0:19:53others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we
0:19:53 > 0:19:58shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier
0:19:58 > 0:20:03said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has
0:20:03 > 0:20:11not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer
0:20:11 > 0:20:16would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg
0:20:16 > 0:20:21suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But
0:20:21 > 0:20:26we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.
0:20:26 > 0:20:31No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.
0:20:31 > 0:20:37It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to
0:20:37 > 0:20:41secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the
0:20:41 > 0:20:47scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.
0:20:47 > 0:20:53You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some
0:20:53 > 0:20:59of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit
0:20:59 > 0:21:05suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do
0:21:05 > 0:21:12you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some
0:21:12 > 0:21:19flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff
0:21:19 > 0:21:25drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,
0:21:25 > 0:21:30the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his
0:21:30 > 0:21:36view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into
0:21:36 > 0:21:43the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.
0:21:43 > 0:21:48Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think
0:21:48 > 0:21:53that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the
0:21:53 > 0:21:57economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the
0:21:57 > 0:22:04price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the
0:22:04 > 0:22:08biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest
0:22:08 > 0:22:15in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in
0:22:15 > 0:22:23additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I
0:22:23 > 0:22:26think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling
0:22:26 > 0:22:32can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity
0:22:32 > 0:22:39model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the
0:22:39 > 0:22:46job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long
0:22:46 > 0:22:50economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of
0:22:50 > 0:22:54business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very
0:22:54 > 0:23:00much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.
0:23:00 > 0:23:04There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of
0:23:04 > 0:23:06individuals we want to stand together and support the best
0:23:06 > 0:23:12interests of the government.Thank you.
0:23:12 > 0:23:14Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying
0:23:14 > 0:23:17to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive
0:23:17 > 0:23:18free trade deal with the EU.
0:23:18 > 0:23:21He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'
0:23:21 > 0:23:26and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.
0:23:26 > 0:23:29Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders
0:23:29 > 0:23:31of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.
0:23:31 > 0:23:33We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders
0:23:33 > 0:23:36she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.
0:23:36 > 0:23:39Here's her film.
0:23:46 > 0:23:49I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,
0:23:49 > 0:23:52and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,
0:23:52 > 0:23:56and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20
0:23:56 > 0:24:01years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.
0:24:04 > 0:24:07I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful
0:24:07 > 0:24:09of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave
0:24:09 > 0:24:12the European Union because we thought the country would be
0:24:12 > 0:24:14better off outside.
0:24:14 > 0:24:17It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined
0:24:17 > 0:24:21the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining
0:24:21 > 0:24:25the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany
0:24:25 > 0:24:28experienced in the '70s back home.
0:24:28 > 0:24:30The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.
0:24:30 > 0:24:35But, of course, it didn't.
0:24:37 > 0:24:40Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,
0:24:40 > 0:24:43Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.
0:24:43 > 0:24:44Germany's extraordinary success is down to
0:24:44 > 0:24:49the pragmatism of its business.
0:24:49 > 0:24:54German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,
0:24:54 > 0:25:00long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.
0:25:00 > 0:25:02Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks
0:25:02 > 0:25:05are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want
0:25:05 > 0:25:12that to go away.
0:25:12 > 0:25:17German business is not given to making big political statements
0:25:17 > 0:25:20out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making
0:25:20 > 0:25:23positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal
0:25:23 > 0:25:26with the United Kingdom.
0:25:26 > 0:25:29BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,
0:25:29 > 0:25:33and exports just under 1 million cars annually.
0:25:33 > 0:25:38The UK is a vital market.
0:25:38 > 0:25:42What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,
0:25:42 > 0:25:46because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,
0:25:46 > 0:25:51it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,
0:25:51 > 0:25:55but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,
0:25:55 > 0:25:58and what we need to see now is what is going to be
0:25:58 > 0:26:01the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,
0:26:01 > 0:26:03what is going to be the requirements for people
0:26:03 > 0:26:06moving across the continent?
0:26:06 > 0:26:08Because all of these things are important to us today.
0:26:08 > 0:26:12And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.
0:26:12 > 0:26:14Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission
0:26:14 > 0:26:18is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be
0:26:18 > 0:26:20German business, German consumers and German employees
0:26:20 > 0:26:24who will suffer.
0:26:24 > 0:26:26TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete
0:26:26 > 0:26:28the first phase successfully.
0:26:28 > 0:26:32The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial
0:26:32 > 0:26:34consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.
0:26:34 > 0:26:38And then it's not a question of punishment payments.
0:26:38 > 0:26:40It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual
0:26:40 > 0:26:44obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes
0:26:44 > 0:26:47a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,
0:26:47 > 0:26:56so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.
0:26:56 > 0:27:01It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.
0:27:01 > 0:27:04Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,
0:27:04 > 0:27:07but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply
0:27:07 > 0:27:12have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.
0:27:12 > 0:27:16Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results
0:27:16 > 0:27:18both sides being able to trade together and work
0:27:18 > 0:27:25together post-Brexit.
0:27:25 > 0:27:27Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,
0:27:27 > 0:27:28and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.
0:27:28 > 0:27:34Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,
0:27:34 > 0:27:36then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,
0:27:36 > 0:27:37the European Union and Germany?
0:27:37 > 0:27:39It's absolutely true.
0:27:39 > 0:27:42I think that this is about two things.
0:27:42 > 0:27:47One, about proving that free trade is possible
0:27:47 > 0:27:51between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.
0:27:51 > 0:27:54If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,
0:27:54 > 0:27:58then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?
0:27:58 > 0:28:03Number two is, I also believe the free trade,
0:28:03 > 0:28:07free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain
0:28:07 > 0:28:09has chosen as the path into the future is a role
0:28:09 > 0:28:12model for Europe.
0:28:12 > 0:28:15The time has come both for the United Kingdom
0:28:15 > 0:28:18and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of
0:28:18 > 0:28:20deal we can achieve.
0:28:20 > 0:28:23Both sides need to be bold.
0:28:23 > 0:28:26As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,
0:28:26 > 0:28:31we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.
0:28:31 > 0:28:35But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading
0:28:35 > 0:28:37economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,
0:28:37 > 0:28:43and that is German business.
0:28:43 > 0:28:45That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case
0:28:45 > 0:28:47and we'll be hearing from the opposite side
0:28:47 > 0:28:49of the argument in the coming weeks.
0:28:49 > 0:28:51Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.
0:28:51 > 0:28:54He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up
0:28:54 > 0:28:56the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,
0:28:56 > 0:28:59and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference
0:28:59 > 0:29:01he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.
0:29:01 > 0:29:06Welcome both of you.
0:29:06 > 0:29:10We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German
0:29:10 > 0:29:15business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in
0:29:15 > 0:29:19their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI
0:29:19 > 0:29:25said that defending the single market must be the priority for the
0:29:25 > 0:29:30EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member
0:29:30 > 0:29:37states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after
0:29:37 > 0:29:42the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce
0:29:42 > 0:29:50tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a
0:29:50 > 0:29:53full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,
0:29:53 > 0:30:01that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion
0:30:01 > 0:30:05of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the
0:30:05 > 0:30:12head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important
0:30:12 > 0:30:19as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but
0:30:19 > 0:30:24the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second
0:30:24 > 0:30:29biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK
0:30:29 > 0:30:35that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that
0:30:35 > 0:30:39wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at
0:30:39 > 0:30:47the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what
0:30:47 > 0:30:53side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful
0:30:53 > 0:30:57thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be
0:30:57 > 0:31:01good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a
0:31:01 > 0:31:05disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the
0:31:05 > 0:31:10delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need
0:31:10 > 0:31:17us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80
0:31:17 > 0:31:21billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and
0:31:21 > 0:31:26Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.
0:31:26 > 0:31:31Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need
0:31:31 > 0:31:38them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's
0:31:38 > 0:31:44be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to
0:31:44 > 0:31:50end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no
0:31:50 > 0:31:57deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not
0:31:57 > 0:32:04there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,
0:32:04 > 0:32:09the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic
0:32:09 > 0:32:13decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would
0:32:13 > 0:32:18have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the
0:32:18 > 0:32:23referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's
0:32:23 > 0:32:29interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic
0:32:29 > 0:32:36stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that
0:32:36 > 0:32:49was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.
0:32:49 > 0:32:54There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a
0:32:54 > 0:32:59change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window
0:32:59 > 0:33:02to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted
0:33:02 > 0:33:09for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work
0:33:09 > 0:33:14together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You
0:33:14 > 0:33:20don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could
0:33:20 > 0:33:25give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a
0:33:25 > 0:33:31cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.
0:33:31 > 0:33:36I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about
0:33:36 > 0:33:43what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is
0:33:43 > 0:33:47democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing
0:33:47 > 0:33:52its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want
0:33:52 > 0:33:58to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to
0:33:58 > 0:34:03encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on
0:34:03 > 0:34:08the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we
0:34:08 > 0:34:13are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest
0:34:13 > 0:34:18of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting
0:34:18 > 0:34:22damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation
0:34:22 > 0:34:28Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European
0:34:28 > 0:34:37Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two
0:34:37 > 0:34:42minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people
0:34:42 > 0:34:52just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You
0:34:52 > 0:34:56either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision
0:34:56 > 0:35:02of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not
0:35:02 > 0:35:11stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel
0:35:11 > 0:35:21Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in
0:35:21 > 0:35:27Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving
0:35:27 > 0:35:31reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going
0:35:31 > 0:35:37on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of
0:35:37 > 0:35:43incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?
0:35:43 > 0:35:50You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that
0:35:50 > 0:35:53business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in
0:35:53 > 0:35:58place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will
0:35:58 > 0:36:02find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get
0:36:02 > 0:36:06those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the
0:36:06 > 0:36:11progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually
0:36:11 > 0:36:19encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke
0:36:19 > 0:36:23out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of
0:36:23 > 0:36:26time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The
0:36:26 > 0:36:31people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,
0:36:31 > 0:36:36still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.
0:36:36 > 0:36:45I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the
0:36:45 > 0:36:49incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept
0:36:49 > 0:36:54the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?
0:36:54 > 0:36:59I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that
0:36:59 > 0:37:03the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to
0:37:03 > 0:37:08change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled
0:37:08 > 0:37:14to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at
0:37:14 > 0:37:23the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is
0:37:23 > 0:37:29a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have
0:37:29 > 0:37:34fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably
0:37:34 > 0:37:40spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on
0:37:40 > 0:37:46the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want
0:37:46 > 0:37:51us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make
0:37:51 > 0:37:57it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I
0:37:57 > 0:38:03want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of
0:38:03 > 0:38:10the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany
0:38:10 > 0:38:15hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And
0:38:15 > 0:38:20they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.
0:38:20 > 0:38:22It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:38:22 > 0:38:25Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest
0:38:25 > 0:38:28opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox
0:38:28 > 0:38:30asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running
0:38:30 > 0:38:38the economy.
0:38:38 > 0:38:43Welcome to Sunday politics South my name's Peter Henley.
0:38:43 > 0:38:45On today's show, Hampshire County Council wants
0:38:45 > 0:38:51to charge per visit for trips to its rubbish tips,
0:38:51 > 0:38:53otherwise it says half will have to close.
0:38:53 > 0:38:54But will that just mean more fly-tipping?
0:38:54 > 0:38:55More shortly.
0:38:55 > 0:38:58First, let's meet the two politicians who are here for the
0:38:58 > 0:39:07rest of the programme.
0:39:07 > 0:39:13Stephen Morgan is the Labour MP for Portsmouth south, Robert Courts
0:39:13 > 0:39:15is the Conservative MP for Whitney.
0:39:15 > 0:39:16Two new MPs.
0:39:16 > 0:39:18You've not been on this programme as MPs before.
0:39:18 > 0:39:21Looking forward to it.
0:39:21 > 0:39:24It's a shame you've not brought your Labradoodle, Albert.
0:39:24 > 0:39:25I'm afraid not.
0:39:25 > 0:39:28He's not done TV yet, so he was looking forward to coming on
0:39:28 > 0:39:29the show.
0:39:29 > 0:39:32He was the dog of the year, pipped to the post there.
0:39:32 > 0:39:34And Robert Courts, used to be a barrister.
0:39:34 > 0:39:35Had to be with a name like Courts.
0:39:35 > 0:39:37I'm afraid so.
0:39:37 > 0:39:38Predetermined.
0:39:38 > 0:39:39You got a dirty secret, I'm told.
0:39:39 > 0:39:40Your great-grandfather was an MP.
0:39:40 > 0:39:41For Cambridge.
0:39:41 > 0:39:43And yet you're in Oxford.
0:39:43 > 0:39:46And a Labour MP, as well.
0:39:46 > 0:39:48Labour MP for Cambridgeshire, that's right.
0:39:48 > 0:39:49Yeah, that's right.
0:39:49 > 0:39:51The other side of the country and the other party.
0:39:51 > 0:39:53Now you're in David Cameron's old seat.
0:39:53 > 0:39:55So, for the budget, what's your tip?
0:39:55 > 0:39:57What would you really like to see for Oxfordshire?
0:39:57 > 0:40:00I'd really like to see something to help
0:40:00 > 0:40:03young people with the cost of housing,
0:40:03 > 0:40:05young people with the cost of housing, rental and purchase,
0:40:05 > 0:40:07it is that affordability issue that is important and
0:40:07 > 0:40:10I would like to see the Chancellor addressing that.
0:40:10 > 0:40:11Stephen?
0:40:11 > 0:40:13This is the most important budget we've seen for years.
0:40:13 > 0:40:15I want to see a budget that delivers for
0:40:15 > 0:40:21Britain and for Portsmouth.
0:40:21 > 0:40:23It's got to be about public services protection,
0:40:23 > 0:40:26our schools, the NHS, dealing with our housing crisis that
0:40:26 > 0:40:27we see.
0:40:27 > 0:40:29We see more homes for local people, that hugely important.
0:40:29 > 0:40:31And end of austerity budget, that has
0:40:31 > 0:40:32been suggested.
0:40:32 > 0:40:33Do you agree with that?
0:40:33 > 0:40:36It is difficult to say in terms of speculation of what will be
0:40:36 > 0:40:38in the budget, we have to have a balance.
0:40:38 > 0:40:42We have to make sure we have a strong economy and be able to
0:40:42 > 0:40:44invest in our public services, so we can pay for them.
0:40:44 > 0:40:46We have to be sensible about spending,...
0:40:46 > 0:40:48You are expecting to see some money being
0:40:48 > 0:40:49handed out?
0:40:49 > 0:40:52I am hoping there will be some investments that matter to
0:40:52 > 0:40:53us all.
0:40:53 > 0:40:55That will shoot Labour's Fox because there will be money spent.
0:40:55 > 0:40:58The record of the Tories has not been good enough.
0:40:58 > 0:41:00We need to see much more investment in our NHS, our
0:41:00 > 0:41:03schools, those services that matter to local people across our country.
0:41:03 > 0:41:05Hopefully, we will see that from the Tories.
0:41:05 > 0:41:07I'm not sure we will get it.
0:41:07 > 0:41:09The devil will be in the detail next week.
0:41:09 > 0:41:11The cost of going away during the school holidays and the
0:41:11 > 0:41:13difficulties of childcare during the long summer break
0:41:13 > 0:41:16are hardly news for parents or anyone else tied to
0:41:16 > 0:41:17school holidays for that matter.
0:41:17 > 0:41:20Now the Isle of Wight has opened the consultation to going from three
0:41:20 > 0:41:21terms to four terms.
0:41:21 > 0:41:24Joining me now is the education union head, the new
0:41:24 > 0:41:26union, this is probably because it is the Isle of White
0:41:26 > 0:41:28and they had this argument with John Platt which
0:41:28 > 0:41:30was in the headlines, because he took his
0:41:30 > 0:41:31daughter out of school.
0:41:31 > 0:41:33It is something that does concern parents,
0:41:33 > 0:41:34does it concern teachers as
0:41:34 > 0:41:40well?
0:41:40 > 0:41:48The holidays that people are taking, it is not a new thing.
0:41:48 > 0:41:54It is not a new idea to be changing these.
0:41:54 > 0:41:57The consultation is the important part and it is talking to teachers
0:41:57 > 0:42:02and parents.
0:42:02 > 0:42:04At the moment, they have not consulted with anyone,
0:42:04 > 0:42:07usually they would take it to the unions and have a conversation
0:42:07 > 0:42:09around school holidays, that hasn't been discussed.
0:42:09 > 0:42:10This was attempted in Barnsley and Barnsley Council
0:42:10 > 0:42:13squashed the plans because there was no academic reasons for extending
0:42:13 > 0:42:17children's planning or making children's learning better.
0:42:17 > 0:42:18There might be some social reasons, we
0:42:19 > 0:42:20are...
0:42:20 > 0:42:23It is seven days a week in most places and learning the same,
0:42:23 > 0:42:26seven days a week for a lot of parents.
0:42:26 > 0:42:29If it is making it easier that you have four terms and maybe
0:42:29 > 0:42:31you have it in one place or in one school,
0:42:31 > 0:42:33and then the next or one is
0:42:33 > 0:42:40different, or is that too much confusion?
0:42:40 > 0:42:43If you think about the Isle of Wight, people live on the
0:42:43 > 0:42:45Isle of Wight, they don't work on the Isle of Wight.
0:42:46 > 0:42:47There are differences.
0:42:47 > 0:42:49We have teachers imports must come across from the
0:42:49 > 0:42:50Isle of Wight and teach.
0:42:50 > 0:42:59It is a case of public consultation, we did
0:42:59 > 0:43:02survey our own members only two months ago, two thirds of those
0:43:02 > 0:43:05asked said they preferred to keep six weeks and stated the reasons
0:43:05 > 0:43:06why.
0:43:06 > 0:43:09I think if it is consultation, they have doesn't what they are
0:43:09 > 0:43:10saying.
0:43:10 > 0:43:13If you have got a good holiday, they are spending time with
0:43:13 > 0:43:17the family, a lot of the time the school
0:43:17 > 0:43:18is the family, but also you
0:43:18 > 0:43:21have got to have time for the family to be together.
0:43:21 > 0:43:23It doesn't seem possible with modern lives unless
0:43:23 > 0:43:25you were to have those slightly smaller brakes.
0:43:25 > 0:43:27I think the smaller break, one of the things you said
0:43:27 > 0:43:29right at the beginning of the article, was
0:43:29 > 0:43:30it is very expensive.
0:43:30 > 0:43:32If you reduce school holidays to four-weeks
0:43:32 > 0:43:33that will double the
0:43:33 > 0:43:35price of the time you've got to go on holiday.
0:43:35 > 0:43:37That will rocket the price is even more.
0:43:37 > 0:43:38It is a big picture.
0:43:40 > 0:43:43The world of education is changing, we looking at various
0:43:43 > 0:43:45things and consultation has to be listened to.
0:43:45 > 0:43:48One thing that schools are doing at the moment it seems to
0:43:48 > 0:43:50me especially in the south of England is asking parents to
0:43:50 > 0:43:52contribute to some of the cost of education.
0:43:52 > 0:43:55We have seen some schools absolutely upfront saying £1 for
0:43:55 > 0:43:56each day that the child is at school.
0:43:56 > 0:44:00What you think?
0:44:00 > 0:44:01Outrageous.
0:44:01 > 0:44:02We saw many teachers lobbying Parliament
0:44:02 > 0:44:06this week as part of a
0:44:06 > 0:44:09campaign which has been with unions, teachers, parents, where we are
0:44:09 > 0:44:11looking at their not being enough money in schools.
0:44:11 > 0:44:14It is not just about the pound per day, it is about
0:44:14 > 0:44:16the numbers of children in class is growing,
0:44:16 > 0:44:17there am all children in
0:44:17 > 0:44:18schools, there is less money.
0:44:18 > 0:44:20The Government says that every school is
0:44:20 > 0:44:24going to see an increase in funding, are you saying they are run?
0:44:24 > 0:44:29They are wrong.
0:44:29 > 0:44:32The school cuts website that the any tea started and has now
0:44:32 > 0:44:34got all the teacher trade unions is relaunching this week with three
0:44:34 > 0:44:37days left until the budget, there are new figures,
0:44:37 > 0:44:42there are 500 more schools are going to be worse off
0:44:42 > 0:44:43than even predicted, so there are now 70,942
0:44:43 > 0:44:45schools who are going to
0:44:45 > 0:44:46be worse off in the new budget.
0:44:46 > 0:44:50Robert, that is not what the Government is saying, is it?
0:44:50 > 0:44:52I will be interested to see what the
0:44:52 > 0:44:54school cuts website says when relaunches
0:44:54 > 0:44:55because currently it is
0:44:55 > 0:44:56using data that is out of date.
0:44:56 > 0:44:58It is a very misleading website.
0:44:58 > 0:44:59It is using DFE data.
0:44:59 > 0:45:04It is using DFE data, she says.
0:45:04 > 0:45:05Out of date.
0:45:05 > 0:45:06Right.
0:45:06 > 0:45:08So it is not looking ahead to what you're promising
0:45:08 > 0:45:09for the next two years.
0:45:09 > 0:45:11Yes, it is not taking into account...
0:45:11 > 0:45:14That is not out of date, that is not looking into the future.
0:45:14 > 0:45:16No, it is using out of date data.
0:45:16 > 0:45:17It is?
0:45:17 > 0:45:19From a couple of years ago.
0:45:19 > 0:45:20It is also not taking into account what
0:45:20 > 0:45:22the Government is putting in.
0:45:22 > 0:45:25Of course, I would like to see more money for schools, but I would also
0:45:25 > 0:45:28like to see more money for the NHS and for social care.
0:45:28 > 0:45:30What the Government is doing is quite
0:45:30 > 0:45:31important.
0:45:31 > 0:45:34We need to get it right in terms of not conflating the cost
0:45:35 > 0:45:36pressures and cuts.
0:45:36 > 0:45:37The Government is putting in more money into
0:45:37 > 0:45:38schools.
0:45:38 > 0:45:40No.
0:45:40 > 0:45:42The new national funding forecast is putting in an
0:45:42 > 0:45:43extra 1.3 billion.
0:45:43 > 0:45:45You've got £40 billion, it is the largest school
0:45:45 > 0:45:47budget on record, so that money is going on.
0:45:47 > 0:45:49I accept that there are cost pressures that
0:45:49 > 0:45:51schools are facing, but there is no doubt
0:45:51 > 0:45:52about it, the Government is
0:45:52 > 0:45:53putting in more money.
0:45:53 > 0:45:55Let's not forget, we have got brilliant,
0:45:55 > 0:45:56outstanding schools, certainly in west
0:45:56 > 0:45:57Oxfordshire, 95% of them are
0:45:57 > 0:45:58good or outstanding.
0:45:58 > 0:46:00Nationally, 1.8 million in good or outstanding
0:46:00 > 0:46:05schools.
0:46:05 > 0:46:07Headteachers protesting in west Oxfordshire just as much as
0:46:07 > 0:46:08anywhere else.
0:46:08 > 0:46:09Let me just go back to Amanda, the IFA is say...
0:46:10 > 0:46:12And they are the gold standard, they say that
0:46:12 > 0:46:13part pupil funding is being protected over the next two years,
0:46:15 > 0:46:20is that right?
0:46:20 > 0:46:23Per pupil funding has, but what they don't talk
0:46:23 > 0:46:24about is...
0:46:24 > 0:46:27I will just go back to the 1.3 billion, the Public Accounts
0:46:27 > 0:46:28Committee says the efficiency savings haven't been made to provide
0:46:28 > 0:46:31that 1.3 billion yet, so we are still waiting for where
0:46:31 > 0:46:32that is going to come from.
0:46:32 > 0:46:34That is down to the schools than?
0:46:34 > 0:46:36Public accounts, as in the Government haven't released that
0:46:36 > 0:46:38money to stay that money is coming from.
0:46:38 > 0:46:41It was talked about, we are still yet to see it.
0:46:41 > 0:46:51If there is more money per pupil, what they are
0:46:51 > 0:46:53telling you is that the costs of writing,
0:46:53 > 0:46:54schools are treated as
0:46:54 > 0:46:55businesses.
0:46:55 > 0:46:57They paid business rates, they are paying to take their
0:46:57 > 0:47:00rubbish away, they are also having inflated cost of living standards,
0:47:00 > 0:47:02wage bills have gone up, heating has gone up,
0:47:02 > 0:47:04all of those things have gone up, so it is
0:47:04 > 0:47:06actually not a cash cost we are talking about,
0:47:06 > 0:47:09it is the real terms cuts that is happening.
0:47:09 > 0:47:16Stephen Morgan, I'm sure you'll agree with
0:47:16 > 0:47:19Amanda about that, but what about what Robert says
0:47:19 > 0:47:21here which is that schools are not the
0:47:21 > 0:47:24only draw on the taxpayer at the moment and you can't give money to
0:47:24 > 0:47:25everything?
0:47:25 > 0:47:26That is absolute right.
0:47:26 > 0:47:28In the General Election we offered a fully costed manifesto.
0:47:28 > 0:47:30In terms of what Amanda said, we agree.
0:47:30 > 0:47:32What we're finding is that head teachers,
0:47:32 > 0:47:35teachers, parents are talking to us about the cuts that we see in
0:47:35 > 0:47:38schools and it is completely unacceptable that in Theresa May's
0:47:38 > 0:47:40constituency, people are being asked to bring their own money to buy
0:47:40 > 0:47:41pens.
0:47:41 > 0:47:44In my own constituency, Portsmouth South, in my own form
0:47:44 > 0:47:46infant school, children have to bring their own Prit Stick.
0:47:46 > 0:47:47That is completely unacceptable.
0:47:47 > 0:47:49We are a wealthy part of the country.
0:47:49 > 0:47:50In general, we are.
0:47:50 > 0:47:52Shouldn't we contribute, wouldn't parents want to
0:47:52 > 0:47:53contribute to something?
0:47:53 > 0:47:55Not for education, that is a basic human rights.
0:47:55 > 0:47:58It is hugely important that we see more investment in our
0:47:58 > 0:48:01education so that every single young person in a country gets the best
0:48:01 > 0:48:02possible chance in life.
0:48:02 > 0:48:04It is something that everybody who has a
0:48:04 > 0:48:05parent, every grandparent, really wants...
0:48:05 > 0:48:08If they see standards falling in schools, that is going to
0:48:08 > 0:48:11be a vote loser or a vote winner.
0:48:11 > 0:48:12It matters to us all.
0:48:12 > 0:48:14My wife is a governor of the local primary
0:48:14 > 0:48:18school, the one my son will go to, so of course it matters hugely, we
0:48:18 > 0:48:21would all like to see more investment, but we do have to know
0:48:21 > 0:48:24where it is going to come from as well and that is the important thing
0:48:24 > 0:48:27and it is very important to remember that the Government is putting
0:48:27 > 0:48:28more in.
0:48:28 > 0:48:32You can always say that even more should be put in, I would love
0:48:32 > 0:48:34to see that, but there are also those competing pressures.
0:48:34 > 0:48:36Is there any amount of money in the budget that
0:48:37 > 0:48:38would make you happy?
0:48:38 > 0:48:39No.
0:48:39 > 0:48:41I don't think there is going to be.
0:48:41 > 0:48:43Because I think you're right, you have to look at what the
0:48:43 > 0:48:45spending is and where it is coming from.
0:48:45 > 0:48:48You have to look at what we're spending on education as well as
0:48:48 > 0:48:50putting more money in, well we wasting money?
0:48:50 > 0:48:51Right?
0:48:51 > 0:48:53Ie., Ofsted, stats, millions of pounds.
0:48:53 > 0:48:55Oh, you'd cut back on some of that administration?
0:48:55 > 0:48:58Millions of pounds, you have to look at what do we do
0:48:58 > 0:48:59instead?
0:48:59 > 0:49:02What is education today and what does it matter and I think what
0:49:02 > 0:49:05it means is that Headteachers need to make educational decisions, not
0:49:05 > 0:49:06economical ones.
0:49:06 > 0:49:07Because kids have one chance.
0:49:07 > 0:49:10Thank you for coming in to talk to us and congratulations
0:49:10 > 0:49:13because you are the president of the new union when you go back.
0:49:13 > 0:49:14I will be.
0:49:14 > 0:49:15Thank you very much.
0:49:15 > 0:49:17It is the Sunday politics of fact, you see,
0:49:17 > 0:49:20Penny Morgan came in a couple of weeks ago, now she's the Cabinet.
0:49:20 > 0:49:21It could happen to you.
0:49:21 > 0:49:26Thank you.
0:49:26 > 0:49:29Well, where there is muck, there is brass, or so they say, but for
0:49:29 > 0:49:31most councils dealing with household waste,
0:49:31 > 0:49:32it is an expense rather than
0:49:32 > 0:49:33a money making opportunity.
0:49:33 > 0:49:35Hampshire County Council is now proposing to
0:49:35 > 0:49:38charge a nominal sum per visit to its 24 household waste recycling
0:49:38 > 0:49:39centres.
0:49:39 > 0:49:39Our Hampshire reporter Hannah Bewley skipped to the tip to
0:49:45 > 0:49:49see if people were happy or down in the dumps.
0:49:49 > 0:49:53It's not called the new cycle for nothing.
0:49:53 > 0:49:55Plans to half tips in Hampshire are back on the
0:49:55 > 0:49:59table.
0:49:59 > 0:50:02I love my local tip.
0:50:02 > 0:50:05I know that is a weird thing to say, but I
0:50:05 > 0:50:09do.
0:50:09 > 0:50:11With £140 million worth of cuts to make, Hampshire county council
0:50:11 > 0:50:14said it could axe more than half the household
0:50:14 > 0:50:23waste recycling centres in
0:50:31 > 0:50:32the county.
0:50:32 > 0:50:33Knocking on doors, delivering things.
0:50:33 > 0:50:35Hash Hassan has already started the fight for his.
0:50:35 > 0:50:38I'm really scared about what will happen if we lose it.
0:50:38 > 0:50:40Your gardening waste, your DIY waste, how do you
0:50:40 > 0:50:44dispose of the things in your house a few don't have somewhere to take
0:50:44 > 0:50:45it to?
0:50:45 > 0:50:47It doesn't sound important, but it is important.
0:50:47 > 0:50:48Hampshire County Council wants to be the test
0:50:48 > 0:50:52area for charging a small fee, probably a pound, to use the tips.
0:50:52 > 0:50:54It is currently against Government rules, but that hasn't stopped
0:50:54 > 0:50:55councillors knocking on Minister's doors.
0:50:55 > 0:50:58I need to save about 1.2 million across the board on our 24
0:50:58 > 0:51:06household waste recycling centres.
0:51:06 > 0:51:09What we can do is have three or 4 million visits a year, so by
0:51:09 > 0:51:13charging a pound, we would generate three or £4 million which we could
0:51:13 > 0:51:14invest in making our household waste recycling centre.
0:51:14 > 0:51:16When would you hope the pilot would start?
0:51:16 > 0:51:19We are in the hands of the ministers there, we
0:51:19 > 0:51:21need to keep lobbying, keep lobbying our MPs and hopefully
0:51:21 > 0:51:23we can start this as soon as possible can.
0:51:23 > 0:51:25The council say charging would mean no
0:51:25 > 0:51:26tips would have to close.
0:51:26 > 0:51:28Hold on a second...
0:51:28 > 0:51:31The Government's own litter strategy says that residents
0:51:31 > 0:51:34should be able to get rid of their waste for free.
0:51:34 > 0:51:36It says any charges could be counter-productive and lead
0:51:36 > 0:51:43to more fly-tipping.
0:51:43 > 0:51:50These rules are being reviewed and Hampshire
0:51:50 > 0:51:54councillors hope to find out by the end of the year if the ban on
0:51:54 > 0:51:55charging is to be reversed.
0:51:55 > 0:51:57If this all sounds rather familiar, it's
0:51:57 > 0:51:58because we've been here before.
0:51:58 > 0:52:01Campaigners saw off closures last year and charges for some waste were
0:52:01 > 0:52:02brought in.
0:52:02 > 0:52:11You can get rid of your fridge, scrap metal, mattresses,
0:52:11 > 0:52:21carpets all for free.
0:52:21 > 0:52:22But plasterboard and rubble?
0:52:22 > 0:52:25For the past year, you had to pay to get rid
0:52:25 > 0:52:26of those in Hampshire.
0:52:26 > 0:52:27In about October last year...
0:52:27 > 0:52:29People want back then that these charges could
0:52:29 > 0:52:30lead to more fly-tipping.
0:52:30 > 0:52:32Farmer Robert Sutcliffe woke up one morning
0:52:32 > 0:52:35a year ago to find a lorry load of waste had been dumped
0:52:35 > 0:52:38on it is land near Winchester.
0:52:38 > 0:52:41Because we are next door to the main road, very easy for
0:52:41 > 0:52:43somebody to drive a lorry in, every few yards
0:52:43 > 0:52:46dumped loads of rubbish
0:52:46 > 0:52:48all round here.
0:52:48 > 0:52:55And then drove back out and disappeared.
0:52:55 > 0:53:00He thinks the extra charges has made things worse.
0:53:00 > 0:53:04I think one of the reasons you get this is because the charges for
0:53:04 > 0:53:11disposing of plasterboard and rubble have now become very considerable.
0:53:11 > 0:53:14Over a period of 12 months, there were 20,000 incidents of fly-tipping
0:53:14 > 0:53:18in Hampshire, including Southampton and Portsmouth.
0:53:18 > 0:53:24This has gone up from 17,500 four years ago.
0:53:24 > 0:53:26Robin Edwards from the country land and
0:53:26 > 0:53:27business Association says fly-tips on private
0:53:27 > 0:53:28land aren't included in
0:53:28 > 0:53:35the Government's statistics.
0:53:35 > 0:53:37I think people's ability to dispose of waste
0:53:37 > 0:53:39is getting harder and therefore it is meaning that the number of
0:53:39 > 0:53:40fly-tips are increasing.
0:53:40 > 0:53:46I think people are better at reporting it
0:53:46 > 0:53:49which means that the numbers are going up, but it is worth
0:53:49 > 0:53:51noting that the Government's statistics don't include private
0:53:51 > 0:53:53tips which are reported through local authorities.
0:53:53 > 0:53:55The picture is much worse than maybe the Government
0:53:55 > 0:53:56makes out.
0:53:56 > 0:54:04Robert Humby disagrees.
0:54:04 > 0:54:06The evidence shows us that the actual volume
0:54:06 > 0:54:08of fly-tipping has gone down over that period.
0:54:08 > 0:54:11There are several things in terms of the number of
0:54:11 > 0:54:12incidents reported, there is a better
0:54:12 > 0:54:13reporting system, but the
0:54:13 > 0:54:15actual weight per volume is actually gone down.
0:54:15 > 0:54:17Still over 14,000 tonnes of rubbish was fly-tipped in
0:54:17 > 0:54:24Hampshire last year.
0:54:24 > 0:54:26That is the same weight as 110 double-decker
0:54:26 > 0:54:29buses or as much waste as is produced in a village of 1400
0:54:29 > 0:54:34households over a year.
0:54:34 > 0:54:43Some remarkable facts in that.
0:54:43 > 0:54:45Yet the basic principle that you have local
0:54:45 > 0:54:47solutions to deal with recycling is actually causing problems.
0:54:47 > 0:54:48Don't we actually want consistency?
0:54:48 > 0:54:49Across-the-board?
0:54:49 > 0:54:51What you can tip, where you can take it?
0:54:51 > 0:54:54I think the challenge that we have got is that the Government has
0:54:54 > 0:54:58been cut in terms of the Tories by 40%, so local authorities have got
0:54:58 > 0:55:01to find a solution to some of the challenges that they face.
0:55:01 > 0:55:02I'm very worried about this tip tax.
0:55:02 > 0:55:05We have got real issues there that the most
0:55:05 > 0:55:08vulnerable people in society won't be able to afford to pay those fees
0:55:08 > 0:55:11when they go to tip and that is why we see fly-tipping in our streets.
0:55:11 > 0:55:13In Portsmouth, my own constituency, we have
0:55:13 > 0:55:14seen a slight reduction in
0:55:14 > 0:55:16the number of fly-tipping, but I regularly get people...
0:55:16 > 0:55:17Over what period of time?
0:55:17 > 0:55:20Over the past year and only slightly and that is because
0:55:20 > 0:55:23there have been innovations such as introducing an app where people
0:55:23 > 0:55:24can report that issues directly to the
0:55:24 > 0:55:25council.
0:55:25 > 0:55:28It is not acceptable and I don't ever want to see fly-tippers
0:55:28 > 0:55:29win and that is why it is rarely important that local authorities
0:55:33 > 0:55:35work as hard as they can to deal with those issues.
0:55:35 > 0:55:37We want to encourage recycling, don't we?
0:55:37 > 0:55:39It is 39% in Hampshire, that's not good enough.
0:55:39 > 0:55:42It is a blight on our communities if we see fly-tipping.
0:55:42 > 0:55:43Too often I see mattresses and cabinets
0:55:43 > 0:55:46and things like that left on the side of
0:55:46 > 0:55:48the road and something must be done about it.
0:55:48 > 0:55:50Robert, we are not counting fly-tipping on private
0:55:50 > 0:55:51land.
0:55:51 > 0:55:52That doesn't seem right.
0:55:52 > 0:55:55Fly-tipping clearly is something that is a problem and we have to
0:55:55 > 0:55:57make sure we stamp it out, no matter where it is,
0:55:57 > 0:55:58public or private land.
0:55:58 > 0:56:01So the first step, surely would be when you draw up how much
0:56:01 > 0:56:04fly-tipping is there, saying some of the figures are up
0:56:04 > 0:56:06and overall for Hampshire, there are quite a lot,
0:56:06 > 0:56:09but if we are not counting fly-tipping on private land as we
0:56:09 > 0:56:11saw in the film there, that needs to change.
0:56:11 > 0:56:13It may be something we need to look at,
0:56:13 > 0:56:14to make sure we get a
0:56:15 > 0:56:16proper handle that the problem.
0:56:16 > 0:56:19I would like to make quite clear comment back on something Stephen
0:56:19 > 0:56:22said, it's all very well saying that the Tories have cut funding
0:56:22 > 0:56:23to local government, but let's not forget the
0:56:23 > 0:56:26largest peacetime deficit in our history, that is the reason why
0:56:26 > 0:56:28there had to be this care of the public spending.
0:56:28 > 0:56:30Never forget the reason for it.
0:56:30 > 0:56:31OK.
0:56:31 > 0:56:33We won't forget it.
0:56:33 > 0:56:39But it was supposed to protect the front line as well.
0:56:39 > 0:56:41Surely providing the right facilities for recycling is
0:56:41 > 0:56:44somewhere where you do want to maintain services.
0:56:44 > 0:56:45Of course.
0:56:45 > 0:56:48I agree with you about that.
0:56:48 > 0:56:50But what you need to do is look at sometimes
0:56:50 > 0:56:52bringing in a modest charge which will enable people
0:56:52 > 0:56:54still to have those services without always having
0:56:54 > 0:56:55recourse to council tax.
0:56:55 > 0:56:59Can I just make one more point?
0:56:59 > 0:57:02That is just that we need to be careful about
0:57:02 > 0:57:05cause and effect here because sometimes it is households, but I
0:57:05 > 0:57:07think households, responsible households, will still go and pay
0:57:07 > 0:57:12that modest charge.
0:57:12 > 0:57:14Sometimes what does happen is you do have unscrupulous
0:57:14 > 0:57:17people who offered to dispose of rubbish and then they fly-tip.
0:57:17 > 0:57:25You don't necessarily know where that
0:57:25 > 0:57:26fly-tipping is coming from, I'm simply saying
0:57:26 > 0:57:29we need to be careful about the cause and effect.
0:57:29 > 0:57:30OK.
0:57:30 > 0:57:31But in general, Hampshire is a conservative
0:57:31 > 0:57:33authority, as a lot of
0:57:33 > 0:57:35the councils around here are and are you saying
0:57:35 > 0:57:37that they should be doing this out of their own resources?
0:57:37 > 0:57:39They should just be more efficient?
0:57:39 > 0:57:41They are saying that we can't manage without charging people.
0:57:41 > 0:57:42I appreciate that.
0:57:42 > 0:57:45They have a lot of claims on their resources, money for social
0:57:45 > 0:57:47care, for example.
0:57:47 > 0:57:49What they are looking at is having a small
0:57:49 > 0:57:50charge.
0:57:50 > 0:57:52One that you think that is all right.
0:57:52 > 0:57:53OK.
0:57:53 > 0:57:55Charging for schools is wrong, charging for tips...
0:57:55 > 0:57:57I think it is something that is worth
0:57:57 > 0:57:59looking at, it is reasonable, if that helps with their finances.
0:57:59 > 0:58:01You are against this sort of charge?
0:58:01 > 0:58:04I think I am most worried about the impact it will have
0:58:04 > 0:58:06on our most vulnerable in our society.
0:58:06 > 0:58:07The evidence that I have seen suggests
0:58:07 > 0:58:09that people can't afford that.
0:58:09 > 0:58:11People who need to access the tip are struggling to do so.
0:58:11 > 0:58:14Our regular round-up of the political week in 60
0:58:14 > 0:58:17seconds.
0:58:17 > 0:58:20On Monday, Aylesbury County Hall was besieged by children and
0:58:20 > 0:58:21parents protecting the closure of children's centres, councillors
0:58:21 > 0:58:26agreed to put off the decision.
0:58:26 > 0:58:30People in need of assistance do not want to deal with several
0:58:30 > 0:58:33professionals.
0:58:33 > 0:58:38I don't see how nine facilities can replace 35.
0:58:38 > 0:58:43Odd socks for children at Windmill primary
0:58:43 > 0:58:45School in Oxford showing support for anti-bullying
0:58:45 > 0:58:46week by encouraging them to embrace their
0:58:46 > 0:58:47individuality.
0:58:47 > 0:58:49Southampton Conservatives have been accused of
0:58:49 > 0:58:51bullying and covering up racist incidents.
0:58:51 > 0:58:54Harmeet Singh Brar claims he was called the Little Brown boy
0:58:54 > 0:58:58and told to fly home.
0:58:58 > 0:59:05Conservative councillors denied the comments were
0:59:05 > 0:59:08made at Council events, but he says the complaints weren't taken
0:59:08 > 0:59:09seriously and a whistle-blower was forced out.
0:59:09 > 0:59:12Racism is not tolerated in the party, it never has been, and
0:59:12 > 0:59:16the party has slipped up here.
0:59:16 > 0:59:19Finally, these are Reading council's new style prefabs and they want
0:59:19 > 0:59:21money for more in the budget.
0:59:21 > 0:59:30There's an idea.
0:59:30 > 0:59:31Prefab ways of providing housing.
0:59:31 > 0:59:35We have had ideas of the Government for doing more, the figures are up.
0:59:35 > 0:59:36The house-building is starting to happen.
0:59:36 > 0:59:39He picked out 15 councils who still haven't got a local plan,
0:59:39 > 0:59:42so basically the Chancellor is pulling out all the stops, isn't he,
0:59:42 > 0:59:43to make sure housing will happen?
0:59:43 > 0:59:45What would you add to that mix?
0:59:45 > 0:59:49I think the prefab idea is and that is really worth looking at.
0:59:49 > 0:59:51There are some really, really great quality off-site
0:59:51 > 0:59:53building techniques now, we need to look at those to
0:59:53 > 0:59:54ensure...
0:59:54 > 0:59:57You can sometimes find that housing is cheaper at really
0:59:57 > 1:00:00good quality and can be built cheaper as well, so there's a real
1:00:00 > 1:00:02solution there that we need to look at.
1:00:02 > 1:00:05And places to put it?
1:00:05 > 1:00:06Even in Oxfordshire?
1:00:06 > 1:00:08Of course, there are brown field sites that can be used,
1:00:08 > 1:00:10there are some areas that are sustainable and suitable,
1:00:11 > 1:00:12so we need to look at those.
1:00:12 > 1:00:14It is innovation that is the key.
1:00:14 > 1:00:16A lot of money coming for Didcot, we think.
1:00:16 > 1:00:17What about your ideas on housing?
1:00:17 > 1:00:19Completely agree.
1:00:19 > 1:00:21We definitely need to see more homes for local people.
1:00:21 > 1:00:23The Government aren't building enough, we desperately need to see
1:00:23 > 1:00:24more homes for people.
1:00:24 > 1:00:26It's absolutely a key priority for me.
1:00:26 > 1:00:28It's something that people regularly write to me
1:00:28 > 1:00:30about, that they need homes in the city and I
1:00:30 > 1:00:31will be working hard to
1:00:32 > 1:00:33make that happen.
1:00:33 > 1:00:35Likewise, we have seen a doubling of people sleeping
1:00:35 > 1:00:36rough in Portsmouth and across the nation.
1:00:36 > 1:00:38More must be done to tackle rough sleeping.
1:00:38 > 1:00:40Labour was promising 4000 houses for rough sleeping
1:00:40 > 1:00:42across the country, that is not a lot.
1:00:42 > 1:00:46It is a start, I think, and there is more that we can do to
1:00:46 > 1:00:46tackle the homelessness crisis that we see in our country.
1:00:46 > 1:00:48Right, so it is just building more houses
1:00:48 > 1:00:51generally and everything you can do to make that happen?
1:00:51 > 1:00:52Were both doing.
1:00:52 > 1:00:54Right.
1:00:54 > 1:00:56We have got time for one more thought from you.
1:00:56 > 1:00:57On housing?
1:00:57 > 1:00:58Yes.
1:00:58 > 1:00:59There is to aspects, really...
1:00:59 > 1:01:00You said prefabs...
1:01:00 > 1:01:02Yes, firstly looking and innovation to do
1:01:02 > 1:01:04that, but of course things in terms of affordability.
1:01:04 > 1:01:07Things that can speed up the build out rate is very
1:01:07 > 1:01:08important, something going actually towards builders, particularly
1:01:08 > 1:01:10increasing the amount of small or medium-sized builders
1:01:10 > 1:01:13in the market and also to young people to ensure
1:01:13 > 1:01:15they can get themselves on the housing man,
1:01:15 > 1:01:16glad, as we are doing.
1:01:16 > 1:01:17It is a generational thing sometimes.
1:01:17 > 1:01:20They have got to be social and affordable homes, homes
1:01:20 > 1:01:21that people can afford to move into.
1:01:21 > 1:01:22That is incredibly important.
1:01:22 > 1:01:24Thank you both very much, that is the
1:01:24 > 1:01:28Sunday politics in the south, thank you to my guests this week, next
1:01:28 > 1:01:31week we are looking at what the Chancellor's budget will mean.
1:01:39 > 1:01:42Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -
1:01:42 > 1:01:45he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be
1:01:45 > 1:01:47hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes
1:01:47 > 1:01:48of the public.
1:01:48 > 1:01:52But when it comes to the economy, do people trust
1:01:52 > 1:01:53the Conservatives, or Labour?
1:01:53 > 1:01:58Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.
1:01:58 > 1:02:06MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.
1:02:06 > 1:02:09All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out
1:02:09 > 1:02:11what he has been cooking up in his Budget.
1:02:11 > 1:02:14So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here
1:02:14 > 1:02:17who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,
1:02:17 > 1:02:24Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?
1:02:24 > 1:02:27No 7.
1:02:27 > 1:02:32Which one's Tory?
1:02:39 > 1:02:40I voted Conservative for the last two
1:02:40 > 1:02:45elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.
1:02:45 > 1:02:47If I said to you which of these characters
1:02:47 > 1:02:49would you trust with the economy, what would you say?
1:02:49 > 1:02:52The one who's currently running it, because they
1:02:52 > 1:02:53seem to be bringing the deficit down.
1:02:53 > 1:02:54Labour.
1:02:54 > 1:02:55Why?
1:02:55 > 1:02:58Because I'm an NHS worker.
1:02:58 > 1:03:01For me, it's just about spending, public spending.
1:03:01 > 1:03:06Labour always overspend.
1:03:06 > 1:03:12John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked
1:03:12 > 1:03:17and I think we need a radical re-think.
1:03:17 > 1:03:19Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:19 > 1:03:20No one.
1:03:20 > 1:03:23Why?
1:03:23 > 1:03:28Because they never come up trumps with anything that they
1:03:28 > 1:03:29reckon they're going to do.
1:03:29 > 1:03:32If I had to make you choose one of them?
1:03:32 > 1:03:34The man that's there, Hammond.
1:03:34 > 1:03:35I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a
1:03:35 > 1:03:41bag of marbles or a plastic ball!
1:03:41 > 1:03:42Hello, Bob.
1:03:42 > 1:03:43Oh, hello.
1:03:43 > 1:03:45Who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:45 > 1:03:46Oh, the Conservatives.
1:03:46 > 1:03:48Do you? Why's that?
1:03:48 > 1:03:50I just think they're better for the small businessman.
1:03:50 > 1:03:52We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,
1:03:52 > 1:03:55somebody in there with balls to say, right,
1:03:55 > 1:03:57that's the direction we are
1:03:57 > 1:03:59going in, that's what we are going to do.
1:03:59 > 1:04:01I've got balls!
1:04:01 > 1:04:03What are you doing?
1:04:03 > 1:04:10Putting balls in holes by the look of it!
1:04:10 > 1:04:13I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,
1:04:13 > 1:04:15but I say that without a great deal of conviction.
1:04:15 > 1:04:18Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the
1:04:18 > 1:04:19streets, the strikes, the unions.
1:04:19 > 1:04:23Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money
1:04:23 > 1:04:29and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.
1:04:29 > 1:04:32I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it
1:04:32 > 1:04:35is clearing up time here at the diner and time
1:04:35 > 1:04:37to reveal the Moodbox.
1:04:37 > 1:04:39Take it away, Tim.
1:04:39 > 1:04:42As you can say it was a close-run thing, but
1:04:42 > 1:04:44like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and
1:04:44 > 1:04:51counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.
1:04:51 > 1:04:55Oh, chip, thank you very much!
1:04:55 > 1:04:57That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,
1:04:57 > 1:04:59at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.
1:04:59 > 1:05:02But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view
1:05:02 > 1:05:05the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look
1:05:05 > 1:05:07at some recent polling.
1:05:07 > 1:05:09Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back
1:05:09 > 1:05:12when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,
1:05:12 > 1:05:15when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many
1:05:15 > 1:05:17other areas.
1:05:17 > 1:05:21The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed
1:05:21 > 1:05:23the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,
1:05:23 > 1:05:28although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.
1:05:28 > 1:05:31And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,
1:05:31 > 1:05:37showing that while the gap between Theresa May
1:05:37 > 1:05:39and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election
1:05:39 > 1:05:41period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,
1:05:41 > 1:05:43still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or
1:05:43 > 1:05:44even slightly ahead.
1:05:44 > 1:05:46And when it comes to how people intend to vote
1:05:46 > 1:05:49while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a
1:05:49 > 1:05:51big Labour lead yet.
1:05:51 > 1:05:53Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"
1:05:53 > 1:05:57inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be
1:05:57 > 1:06:0010 or 15 points ahead.
1:06:00 > 1:06:03Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair
1:06:03 > 1:06:06and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely
1:06:06 > 1:06:13wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?
1:06:13 > 1:06:21Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the
1:06:21 > 1:06:26economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the
1:06:26 > 1:06:32Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds
1:06:32 > 1:06:35of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and
1:06:35 > 1:06:41imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national
1:06:41 > 1:06:44security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many
1:06:44 > 1:06:48circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it
1:06:48 > 1:06:55for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting
1:06:55 > 1:07:00and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We
1:07:00 > 1:07:06underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning
1:07:06 > 1:07:11Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The
1:07:11 > 1:07:16government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over
1:07:16 > 1:07:20resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of
1:07:20 > 1:07:23people are having a really tough time and looking at the government
1:07:23 > 1:07:27to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems
1:07:27 > 1:07:35to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.
1:07:35 > 1:07:40Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I
1:07:40 > 1:07:44think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think
1:07:44 > 1:07:47Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they
1:07:47 > 1:07:54have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn
1:07:54 > 1:08:00had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.
1:08:00 > 1:08:07They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.
1:08:07 > 1:08:11Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to
1:08:11 > 1:08:16build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think
1:08:16 > 1:08:21they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the
1:08:21 > 1:08:27next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The
1:08:27 > 1:08:30fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot
1:08:30 > 1:08:35of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they
1:08:35 > 1:08:39certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very
1:08:39 > 1:08:44well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I
1:08:44 > 1:08:50am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to
1:08:50 > 1:08:57that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy
1:08:57 > 1:09:04Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy
1:09:04 > 1:09:08Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn
1:09:08 > 1:09:14to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,
1:09:14 > 1:09:18despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has
1:09:18 > 1:09:25the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have
1:09:25 > 1:09:31just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that
1:09:31 > 1:09:35Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave
1:09:35 > 1:09:42Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed
1:09:42 > 1:09:48people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have
1:09:48 > 1:09:52to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context
1:09:52 > 1:10:00of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future
1:10:00 > 1:10:11unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,
1:10:11 > 1:10:16unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that
1:10:16 > 1:10:20against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think
1:10:20 > 1:10:24about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,
1:10:24 > 1:10:28they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they
1:10:28 > 1:10:33have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop
1:10:33 > 1:10:40a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also
1:10:40 > 1:10:43this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be
1:10:43 > 1:10:49talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to
1:10:49 > 1:10:52you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be
1:10:52 > 1:10:58the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so
1:10:58 > 1:11:01ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.
1:11:01 > 1:11:06They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they
1:11:06 > 1:11:11offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December
1:11:11 > 1:11:14council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in
1:11:14 > 1:11:20conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get
1:11:20 > 1:11:25that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he
1:11:25 > 1:11:27revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a
1:11:27 > 1:11:37more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers
1:11:37 > 1:11:43as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to
1:11:43 > 1:11:50keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce
1:11:50 > 1:11:57Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested
1:11:57 > 1:12:03that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's
1:12:03 > 1:12:07another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime
1:12:07 > 1:12:13Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A
1:12:13 > 1:12:17strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where
1:12:17 > 1:12:23we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the
1:12:23 > 1:12:27European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on
1:12:27 > 1:12:40it until we are satisfied with the next
1:12:46 > 1:12:48stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who
1:12:48 > 1:12:51could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that
1:12:51 > 1:12:53might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have
1:12:53 > 1:12:56not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the
1:12:56 > 1:12:59astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is
1:12:59 > 1:13:02going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the
1:13:02 > 1:13:07negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in
1:13:07 > 1:13:10terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will
1:13:10 > 1:13:15look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,
1:13:15 > 1:13:21but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet
1:13:21 > 1:13:25Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each
1:13:25 > 1:13:29other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.
1:13:29 > 1:13:31That's all for today.
1:13:31 > 1:13:33Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.
1:13:33 > 1:13:37Until then, bye bye.