:00:40. > :00:46.The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday
:00:47. > :00:51.morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%
:00:52. > :00:57.pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who
:00:58. > :01:02.credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine
:01:03. > :01:07.tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?
:01:08. > :01:13.Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed
:01:14. > :01:17.Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will
:01:18. > :01:23.be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by
:01:24. > :01:51.With me, three scruffy eternal students. They would celebrate if
:01:52. > :01:54.they achieved a C+. But they are all we could afford and there will be no
:01:55. > :01:57.pay rise for them. They will be glued to an electronic device
:01:58. > :02:03.throughout the programme and if we are lucky they might stop there
:02:04. > :02:07.internet shopping and tweet something intelligent. But don't
:02:08. > :02:12.hold your breath. Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last
:02:13. > :02:15.week, storms were battering Britain, the East Coast was hit by the worst
:02:16. > :02:19.tidal surge in more than a century, thousands of people had to be
:02:20. > :02:24.evacuated and Nelson Mandela died. The downed the news agenda was the
:02:25. > :02:30.small matter of George Osborne's Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his
:02:31. > :02:38.takeaways and his first opportunity to announce some economic cheer.
:02:39. > :02:49.It might be winter outside, but in the studios it is awesome. Autumn
:02:50. > :02:53.Statement time. -- autumn. This is a moment of TV history. Normally when
:02:54. > :02:56.the Chancellor delivers these statements, he has to say the
:02:57. > :03:01.economy is actually a lot worse than everyone predicted. This time, he
:03:02. > :03:02.can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted. A
:03:03. > :03:11.lot better. Britain is currently growing faster
:03:12. > :03:18.than any other major advanced economy. Faster than France, which
:03:19. > :03:24.is contracting, faster than Germany, faster even than America. At this
:03:25. > :03:28.Autumn Statement last year, there were repeated predictions that
:03:29. > :03:32.borrowing would go up. Instead, borrowing is down, and down
:03:33. > :03:35.significantly more than forecast. But George Osborne said the good
:03:36. > :03:41.numbers still mean more tough decisions. We will not give up in
:03:42. > :03:45.giving in our country's debts. We will not spend the money from lower
:03:46. > :03:53.borrowing. We will not squander the harder and games of the British
:03:54. > :03:56.people. -- hard earned gains. In other news, further cuts to
:03:57. > :04:02.government departments. The state pension age will increase in the
:04:03. > :04:07.2040s, affecting people in their 40s now. There were some goodies, like
:04:08. > :04:11.discounted business rates for small businesses, free school meals for
:04:12. > :04:16.infants, favoured by the Lib Dems, and those marriage tax breaks below
:04:17. > :04:18.that by the Tories. But, as with all big fiscal events, it takes a while
:04:19. > :04:26.for the details to sink in. The marriage tax allowance is a
:04:27. > :04:29.long-standing commitment that he could not abandon. It does help
:04:30. > :04:35.those families were only one goes out to work. It does not go to
:04:36. > :04:40.higher rate taxpayers, I don't think. Perhaps it does, I can't
:04:41. > :04:45.remember. It makes me feel guilty, I am taking them very seriously,
:04:46. > :04:48.but... Shall I give you them? There is the Autumn Statement. Have that,
:04:49. > :04:52.a free gift from the Sunday Politics. Is there no limit to the
:04:53. > :05:02.generosity of the BBC? In the meantime, Twitter was awash
:05:03. > :05:06.with unflattering pictures of a red-faced Ed Balls giving his
:05:07. > :05:12.response. Some pictures were more than flattering than others. Is Ed
:05:13. > :05:16.Balls OK? Should we be worrying about him? He looks very stressed.
:05:17. > :05:20.There is nothing to worry about in terms of Ed balls and his analysis.
:05:21. > :05:28.He and Ed Miliband have been setting the pace in terms of the focus on
:05:29. > :05:31.the living standards crisis. It was very telling that there was not a
:05:32. > :05:36.mention of living standards last time, we got 12 mentions this time.
:05:37. > :05:43.Never mind what he was saying, by now everybody has a copy of the
:05:44. > :05:45.all-important paperwork. Time to hand over to number cruncher
:05:46. > :05:50.extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of
:05:51. > :05:53.course it means that things are significantly better this year and
:05:54. > :05:57.next than we thought they would be just nine months ago. That has got
:05:58. > :06:01.to be good news. But it is also worth looking at the growth figures
:06:02. > :06:09.a few years out. They have been revised down a little bit. The
:06:10. > :06:12.reason is, the view of the office of budget response ability is that the
:06:13. > :06:16.long run has not really changed very much. We are getting a bit more
:06:17. > :06:19.growth now, but their view is that it is at the cost of a little bit of
:06:20. > :06:24.the growth we will expect in the years after the next general
:06:25. > :06:28.election. As the day draws to a close, the one place there has
:06:29. > :06:36.definitely been no growth is the graphics budget of my colleague,
:06:37. > :06:40.Robert Preston. It's as good as it gets these days, I don't think the
:06:41. > :06:48.viewers will mind. It's very Sunday Politics, if I might say. That is
:06:49. > :06:53.very worrying. Was this a watershed for George
:06:54. > :06:57.Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed Balls? We can all make the case that
:06:58. > :07:01.it is the wrong sort of recovery, a consumer led recovery. People are
:07:02. > :07:05.spending money they don't have. At the end of the day, it for George
:07:06. > :07:10.Osborne, it is growth, the first time he has been able to talk about
:07:11. > :07:14.growth. It allows him to control the baseline, the fiscal debate for the
:07:15. > :07:18.next generation. For Ed Balls, nearly not a good performance. But
:07:19. > :07:22.don't write this man off. Judging by Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it
:07:23. > :07:31.all is, said he did a good interview this morning on a rival TV channel.
:07:32. > :07:34.I feel the fact that the Tories hate Ed Balls so passionately is probably
:07:35. > :07:41.a good reason that they should hang onto him, in that Labour sends his
:07:42. > :07:47.effectiveness. May be the Tories hope that they hold on to him as
:07:48. > :07:50.well? A lot of people shouting at someone and mocking their speech
:07:51. > :07:53.impediment, that is politics that doesn't make me want to engage. The
:07:54. > :07:59.takeaway will be lots of people thinking that none of these people
:08:00. > :08:02.are people they like. Who is the main heckler on the Labour front
:08:03. > :08:07.bench West remarked I suppose he can't cast any stones. It would be
:08:08. > :08:10.easier to sympathise with him, if it were not that David Cameron went
:08:11. > :08:16.through a similar situation and John Bercow did not step in to stop the
:08:17. > :08:24.wall of noise. It was guaranteed a good happen to a Labour politician.
:08:25. > :08:31.It's painful to remove him because he had a Parliamentary following and
:08:32. > :08:36.he will kick up a fuss. I think he's much more pragmatic on issues like
:08:37. > :08:42.business than Ed Miliband. I'm told he wasn't keen on the energy price
:08:43. > :08:46.freeze. The problem with Ed Balls, to have the first words that you
:08:47. > :08:51.say, the Chancellor is in denial, after he is presiding over growth,
:08:52. > :08:55.it means nobody is listening to you. Who would replace him? Certainly not
:08:56. > :08:59.Alistair Darling, the side of the referendum and even afterwards. Ed
:09:00. > :09:02.Balls did get a roasting in the press and on Twitter. He seemed to
:09:03. > :09:06.disappear from public view following the Autumn Statement. But a little
:09:07. > :09:09.bird tells me he managed one interview this morning before he
:09:10. > :09:14.went off to an all-important piano recital this afternoon. Watch out,
:09:15. > :09:17.Jools Holland, he could be after your job. How bad was his
:09:18. > :09:23.performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The
:09:24. > :09:29.Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are
:09:30. > :09:40.defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the
:09:41. > :09:45.books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will
:09:46. > :09:52.do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just
:09:53. > :09:59.the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit
:10:00. > :10:09.in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie
:10:10. > :10:15.is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,
:10:16. > :10:21.in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that
:10:22. > :10:24.your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of
:10:25. > :10:30.your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George
:10:31. > :10:33.Osborne has a superior argument. I think Ed Balls will certainly trying
:10:34. > :10:37.his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living
:10:38. > :10:40.crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.
:10:41. > :10:46.That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.
:10:47. > :10:48.One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking
:10:49. > :10:54.back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A
:10:55. > :10:58.Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong argument to make,
:10:59. > :11:07.unfortunately it was not made well in the chamber today. Quoting the
:11:08. > :11:12.Daily Mail, this is two poor performances. A quote that I can't
:11:13. > :11:17.use because it uses too many four letter words. Baroness Armstrong,
:11:18. > :11:21.speaking at Progress, a former Labour Cabinet minister, we are not
:11:22. > :11:25.sufficiently concerned about public spending, how we would pay for what
:11:26. > :11:29.we are talking about. Quite a battering? There were two sets of
:11:30. > :11:35.quotes you were giving. The couple were about the strategy for tackling
:11:36. > :11:41.public expenditure. I think it's fair that we talk about that. The
:11:42. > :11:51.rest were pretty unattributed, nameless sources. You have never
:11:52. > :11:56.given and of the record briefing? We have conversations off camera, but I
:11:57. > :12:01.don't think you have a wealth of evidence to say that somehow Ed
:12:02. > :12:05.Balls's arguments were wrong. He was making the point that, ultimately,
:12:06. > :12:10.it is a government that does not have its finger on the pulse about
:12:11. > :12:13.what most of your viewers are concerned about, that wages are
:12:14. > :12:17.being squeezed and prices are getting higher and higher. You have
:12:18. > :12:24.had time to study the Autumn Statement. What part of it does
:12:25. > :12:30.Labour disagree with? It is a very big question. I think the overall
:12:31. > :12:33.strategy the Autumn Statement is setting out does not deal with the
:12:34. > :12:38.fundamental problems in the economy. What measures do you disagree with?
:12:39. > :12:41.A lot of it is the absence of measures we would have put in if we
:12:42. > :12:45.were doing the Autumn Statement. If you are going to deal with the cost
:12:46. > :12:48.of living crisis, you have got to get productivity levels up in our
:12:49. > :12:53.society. One of the best ways of doing that is on infrastructure. We
:12:54. > :12:57.believe in bringing forward 's investment and housing, getting some
:12:58. > :13:05.of the fundamentals right in our economy. By planting, the business
:13:06. > :13:14.lending we have to do. We have seen a lamentable failing. There are big
:13:15. > :13:17.structural reforms that we need. Ultimately, the public are concerned
:13:18. > :13:22.about the cost of living crisis. That has got to be childcare help, a
:13:23. > :13:26.10p starting rate of tax. Above all, and energy price freeze, which
:13:27. > :13:31.still this government are refusing to do. On Friday, you told me you
:13:32. > :13:37.supported the principle of a welfare cap. But you change bling claim the
:13:38. > :13:41.Chancellor's cap included pensions. You have now seen the figures, and
:13:42. > :13:46.it does not include pensions, correct? We do want a welfare cap.
:13:47. > :13:52.The government have said they are going to put more detail on this in
:13:53. > :13:56.the March budget. But it does not include pensions? We think they have
:13:57. > :14:02.a short term approach to the welfare cap. They put in some pension
:14:03. > :14:05.benefits. The state pension is not in the short-term plan because, as
:14:06. > :14:11.we believe, a triple lock is a good idea. In the longer term, if you are
:14:12. > :14:14.talking about structural welfare issues, you do have to think about
:14:15. > :14:16.pensions because they have to be sustainable if we are living
:14:17. > :14:21.longer. I think that is about the careful management. Let me show you
:14:22. > :14:28.what Ed Balls said on this programme at the start of the summer. As for
:14:29. > :14:31.pensioners, I think this is a real question. George Osborne is going to
:14:32. > :14:35.announce his cap in two weeks time. I don't know if he will exclude
:14:36. > :14:39.pension spending or including. Our plan is to include it. Pension
:14:40. > :14:45.spending would be included in the welfare cap? That is our plan,
:14:46. > :14:48.exactly what I just said. Over the long-term, if you have a serious
:14:49. > :14:54.welfare cap structural welfare issues, over 20, 30, 40 year
:14:55. > :14:59.period, you can't say that we will not work and pensions as part of
:15:00. > :15:06.that. Pensions would be part of the Labour cap? In the longer term. What
:15:07. > :15:12.is the longer term? If you win 2015? We want to stick with the triple
:15:13. > :15:16.lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their
:15:17. > :15:20.short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the
:15:21. > :15:26.winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of
:15:27. > :15:29.benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state
:15:30. > :15:36.pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40
:15:37. > :15:46.year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are
:15:47. > :15:49.writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions
:15:50. > :15:53.have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,
:15:54. > :15:56.if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at
:15:57. > :16:04.pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part
:16:05. > :16:08.of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long-term
:16:09. > :16:16.cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven't
:16:17. > :16:22.seen the proposition the Government has put before us.
:16:23. > :16:33.You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true
:16:34. > :16:37.when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation
:16:38. > :16:42.does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax
:16:43. > :16:47.threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the
:16:48. > :16:51.freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit
:16:52. > :16:57.changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they
:16:58. > :17:05.could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors. The
:17:06. > :17:11.VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My
:17:12. > :17:17.understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?891
:17:18. > :17:24.worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have
:17:25. > :17:28.to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly
:17:29. > :17:34.the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was
:17:35. > :17:40.saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely
:17:41. > :17:44.out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?
:17:45. > :17:49.Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the
:17:50. > :17:52.long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are
:17:53. > :17:55.facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial
:17:56. > :18:03.Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.
:18:04. > :18:10.Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal
:18:11. > :18:14.debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?
:18:15. > :18:20.I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing
:18:21. > :18:26.more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a
:18:27. > :18:35.Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept
:18:36. > :18:40.that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn't
:18:41. > :18:46.sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this
:18:47. > :18:50.week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the
:18:51. > :18:55.country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult
:18:56. > :19:06.decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March
:19:07. > :19:10.projections work at for those -- for both business investment and
:19:11. > :19:17.exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround
:19:18. > :19:21.in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before
:19:22. > :19:25.politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have
:19:26. > :19:31.gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit
:19:32. > :19:35.investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have
:19:36. > :19:43.confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now
:19:44. > :19:50.under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The
:19:51. > :19:56.fall in business investment is because of the recession. The
:19:57. > :20:03.forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the
:20:04. > :20:08.independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans
:20:09. > :20:16.of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land
:20:17. > :20:19.Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are
:20:20. > :20:24.coming through now because of the confidence generated by this
:20:25. > :20:29.government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would
:20:30. > :20:34.increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our
:20:35. > :20:42.share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it
:20:43. > :20:47.stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I
:20:48. > :20:55.have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we
:20:56. > :21:01.would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would
:21:02. > :21:06.hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.
:21:07. > :21:12.Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,
:21:13. > :21:16.then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more
:21:17. > :21:24.than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.
:21:25. > :21:27.On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because
:21:28. > :21:32.the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed.
:21:33. > :21:38.Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in
:21:39. > :21:48.recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 30%.
:21:49. > :21:54.120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for
:21:55. > :22:00.the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part
:22:01. > :22:04.of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is
:22:05. > :22:12.straightforward. House prices are now rising ten
:22:13. > :22:20.times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are
:22:21. > :22:24.rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average
:22:25. > :22:29.earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you
:22:30. > :22:33.would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month
:22:34. > :22:41.companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this
:22:42. > :22:44.demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to
:22:45. > :23:33.give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help
:23:34. > :23:39.to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as
:23:40. > :23:52.household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt
:23:53. > :23:57.reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not
:23:58. > :24:06.been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,
:24:07. > :24:18.even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --
:24:19. > :24:23.but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share
:24:24. > :24:30.in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The
:24:31. > :24:34.government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall
:24:35. > :24:44.economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating
:24:45. > :24:50.for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for
:24:51. > :24:54.wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people
:24:55. > :25:01.employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest
:25:02. > :25:06.risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending
:25:07. > :25:11.and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure
:25:12. > :25:17.you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election
:25:18. > :25:24.than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more
:25:25. > :25:28.people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better
:25:29. > :25:33.off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is
:25:34. > :25:41.access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe
:25:42. > :25:46.people will be. Compared to 2010. Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This
:25:47. > :25:52.is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education
:25:53. > :25:56.Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always
:25:57. > :25:59.up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education
:26:00. > :26:06.then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't
:26:07. > :26:09.stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,
:26:10. > :26:12.Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform
:26:13. > :26:19.education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion
:26:20. > :26:23.for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's
:26:24. > :26:26.now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further,
:26:27. > :26:33.creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 174
:26:34. > :26:36.have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give
:26:37. > :26:39.parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,
:26:40. > :26:42.currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.
:26:43. > :26:46.An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.
:26:47. > :26:54.Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia". But exam reforms
:26:55. > :26:58.didn't quite go to plan. Although GCSEs got harder, plans to replace
:26:59. > :27:01.A-levels had to be abandoned. Ultimately, the true test of these
:27:02. > :27:06.reforms will be what happens in the classroom. The person in charge of
:27:07. > :27:09.making sure those classrooms are up to scratch in England is the Chief
:27:10. > :27:14.Inspector Of Schools, head of Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins
:27:15. > :27:20.me now. Over the past 15 years, we have
:27:21. > :27:23.doubled spending on schools even allowing for inflation. By
:27:24. > :27:29.international standards, we are stagnating, why? I said last year
:27:30. > :27:39.that mediocrity had settled into the system. Too many children were
:27:40. > :27:45.coasting in schools, which is why we changed the grading structure, we
:27:46. > :27:49.removed that awful word, satisfactory. Saying that good is
:27:50. > :27:53.now the only acceptable standard and schools had a limited time in which
:27:54. > :27:59.to get to that. We are seeing gradually, it is difficult to say
:28:00. > :28:04.this in the week we have had the OECD report. Things have gradually
:28:05. > :28:09.improved. I will come onto that in a minute. Explain this. International
:28:10. > :28:15.comparisons show us flat-lining or even falling in some subjects,
:28:16. > :28:19.including science. For 20 years, our domestic exam results just got
:28:20. > :28:24.better and better. Was this a piece of fiction fed to us by the
:28:25. > :28:30.educational establishment, was there a cover-up? There is no question
:28:31. > :28:36.there has grade inflation. I speak as an ex-headteacher who saw that in
:28:37. > :28:40.examinations. Perceptual state is actually doing something about that.
:28:41. > :28:50.Most good heads will say that is about time. We have to be credible.
:28:51. > :28:53.Do politicians and educationalists conspire in this grade inflation? It
:28:54. > :28:59.might suit politicians to say things are going up every year. As a head,
:29:00. > :29:07.I knew a lot of the exams youngsters were sitting were not up to scratch.
:29:08. > :29:13.The latest OECD study places us 36th for maths, 23rd reading, slipping
:29:14. > :29:18.down to 21st in science. Yet, Ofsted, your organisation,
:29:19. > :29:23.designates 80% of schools as good or outstanding. That's another fiction.
:29:24. > :29:26.This year, we have. If we see this level of progress, it has been a
:29:27. > :29:33.remarkable progress over the last years since we changed our grading
:29:34. > :29:38.structure, then... In a year, absolutely. We have better teachers
:29:39. > :29:42.coming into our school system. Better leaders. Better schools. The
:29:43. > :29:45.big challenge for our country is making sure that progress is
:29:46. > :29:52.maintained which will eventually translate into better outcomes.
:29:53. > :29:58.These figures are pretty much up-to-date. Are you saying within a
:29:59. > :30:04.year 80% of the schools are good enough? All of the schools we
:30:05. > :30:08.upgraded have had better grades in GCSE and grade 2. We have to make
:30:09. > :30:12.sure that is maintained. The Government has based its reforms on
:30:13. > :30:16.similar reforms in Sweden. In opposition they were endlessly going
:30:17. > :30:21.to Stockholm to find out how it was done. Swedish schools are doing even
:30:22. > :30:27.worse than ours in the tables. Why are we copying failure? The
:30:28. > :30:31.secretary of state believes, and I actually believe, as somebody who
:30:32. > :30:36.has come from an academy model, that if you hand power and resources, you
:30:37. > :30:39.hand autonomy to the people on the ground, to the people in the
:30:40. > :30:46.classroom, in the corridors, in the playgrounds, things work. If you
:30:47. > :30:50.allow the great monoliths that used to have responsibility for education
:30:51. > :30:54.in the past to take control again, you will see a reverse in standards.
:30:55. > :30:57.You have got to actually empower those people that make the
:30:58. > :31:03.difference. That is why autonomy and freedom is important. We spent a lot
:31:04. > :31:05.of money moving what were local authority schools to become
:31:06. > :31:09.academies and new free school czar being set up as well. When the
:31:10. > :31:13.academies are pretty much the same level of autonomy, the free school
:31:14. > :31:18.is maybe a little bit more, the evidence we have had so far is that
:31:19. > :31:22.they don't really perform any better than local authority schools?
:31:23. > :31:27.Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they might even be doing worse? These are
:31:28. > :31:31.early days. We will say more about this on weapons they when we produce
:31:32. > :31:35.the annual report. The sponsored academies that took over the worst
:31:36. > :31:38.schools in the country, in the most difficult circumstances, in the most
:31:39. > :31:45.disadvantaged communities, are doing much better now. What about GCSE?
:31:46. > :31:52.They are doing GCSE equivalents, the lass academic subjects question my
:31:53. > :31:56.cull OK, but they are doing better than previous schools. If you look
:31:57. > :32:08.at the top performing nations in the world, they focus on the quality of
:32:09. > :32:11.teaching. The best graduates coming to education. They professionally
:32:12. > :32:15.develop them. They make sure they spot the brightest talents and get
:32:16. > :32:19.them into positions as soon as possible. We have got to do the same
:32:20. > :32:26.if we are going to catch up with those jurisdictions. This isn't just
:32:27. > :32:30.a British problem. It seems to be a European problem. The East Asian
:32:31. > :32:32.countries now dominate the top of the tables. What's the most
:32:33. > :32:38.important lesson we should learn from East Asia? Attitudes to work.
:32:39. > :32:44.We need to make sure that we invest in good teachers, good leaders. We
:32:45. > :32:48.have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It's no
:32:49. > :32:53.good getting good people into the classroom and then seeing them part
:32:54. > :32:59.of teaching by bad behaviour, disaffected youngsters and poor
:33:00. > :33:03.leadership. We see young teachers doing well for a time and then being
:33:04. > :33:08.put off teaching and leaving from that sort of culture in our schools.
:33:09. > :33:13.Are you a cheerleader for government education policy rather than
:33:14. > :33:16.independent inspectors? I am independent, Ofsted is independent.
:33:17. > :33:21.I believe we are saying the right things on standards. The Association
:33:22. > :33:25.of teachers and lecturers say you are an arm of government. The NUT
:33:26. > :33:30.has called for your resignation. Another wants to abolish or
:33:31. > :33:35.Inspectorate. Have you become a pariah amongst teaching unions? If
:33:36. > :33:41.we are challenging schools to become better, that is our job, we will
:33:42. > :33:44.carry on doing that. I am not going to preside over the status quo. We
:33:45. > :33:49.will challenge the system to do better, we will challenge schools
:33:50. > :33:53.and colleges to do better. We will also challenge government when we
:33:54. > :33:55.think they are going wrong. Many people in the education
:33:56. > :33:58.establishment think your primary purpose is to do the Government's
:33:59. > :34:05.bidding by shepherding schools into becoming academies. Not true at all.
:34:06. > :34:10.You are a big supporter of academies? Yes, I believe the people
:34:11. > :34:14.that do the business in schools are the people that are free to do what
:34:15. > :34:18.is necessary to raise standards. I am a big supporter of autonomy in
:34:19. > :34:28.the school system. But where we see academies Vale, where we see free
:34:29. > :34:32.schools fail, we will say so. The study does not find much evidence
:34:33. > :34:37.that competition and choice raise standards, but it does go with you
:34:38. > :34:41.and say that strong school leadership, coupled with autonomy,
:34:42. > :34:46.can make a difference. Can somebody with no experience in education be
:34:47. > :34:50.in charge of a school? A lot of hot air has been expounded on the issue
:34:51. > :34:52.of whether teachers should be qualified or not. If qualified
:34:53. > :35:01.teacher status was the gold standard, why is it that one in
:35:02. > :35:04.three teachers, one in three lessons that will observe are not good
:35:05. > :35:09.enough. Taught by qualified teachers. I've not yet met a
:35:10. > :35:12.headteacher that has not appointed by qualified staff when they cannot
:35:13. > :35:16.get qualified teachers. Their job is to make sure they get accredited as
:35:17. > :35:19.soon as possible and come up to scratch in the classroom. Do you
:35:20. > :35:26.support the use of unqualified teachers? I do. I have done it. If I
:35:27. > :35:29.could not get a maths, physics or modern languages teacher and I
:35:30. > :35:32.thought somebody straight from university, without qualified
:35:33. > :35:36.teachers start this, that they could communicate well with youngsters, I
:35:37. > :35:40.would get that person into the classroom and get them accredited if
:35:41. > :35:44.they delivered the goods. If we are going to allow schools to have more
:35:45. > :35:49.autonomy and not be accountable to local authorities, free schools
:35:50. > :35:54.academies, don't you have to do... New entrants will be coming into the
:35:55. > :36:01.market, the educational marketplace. Do you not have to act more quickly
:36:02. > :36:04.when it is clear, and there has been examined recently, where it is
:36:05. > :36:09.clearly going badly wrong and children's education at risk?
:36:10. > :36:12.Absolutely. I made a point to the secretary of state and it is
:36:13. > :36:15.something I will talk more about over the coming year. We need to be
:36:16. > :36:19.in school is much more often. If a school fails at the moment, or
:36:20. > :36:26.underperforms, goes into this new category, Her Majesty 's inspectors
:36:27. > :36:29.stay with that institution until it improves. Sometimes we don't see a
:36:30. > :36:34.school for five or seven years. That is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted
:36:35. > :36:37.should pay a much greater part in monitoring the performance of
:36:38. > :36:44.schools between those inspections. Are you enjoying it? It is a tough
:36:45. > :36:51.job. Are you enjoying it? This is a tough job, but I enjoy it.
:36:52. > :36:54.Sometimes. You are watching Sunday Politics.
:36:55. > :36:55.Coming up in just over 20 minutes, Diane Abbott will be joining us. And
:36:56. > :37:08.we Hello, and on the Sunday Politics
:37:09. > :37:12.Wales, the details of the Autumn Statement have been digested, but do
:37:13. > :37:15.they satisfy our economic needs? We'll hear from Plaid Cymru's
:37:16. > :37:19.Parliamentary Leader. And life after Remploy - we pay a
:37:20. > :37:22.visit to the former Remploy plant in Porth with local AM Leighton
:37:23. > :37:24.Andrews. Joining me throughout today's
:37:25. > :37:31.programme are two MPs, Labour's Huw Irranca-Davies and the Conservative
:37:32. > :37:35.Alun Cairns. Good morning to you both. Both of whom if we read the
:37:36. > :37:41.news this morning will be receiving pay rises of 11%. What is your
:37:42. > :37:47.reaction to that? It is not a decision taken by MPs. That is
:37:48. > :37:50.right. I certainly do not think MPs will receive that pay rise. That is
:37:51. > :37:55.enough long way to go in this debate. The public reaction has
:37:56. > :37:58.rightly been strong. The independent body needs to reflect on that. I
:37:59. > :38:03.suspect we will be in a different position by the time the next
:38:04. > :38:10.general election comes. Any pay rise or be changeable, and then. Is it
:38:11. > :38:16.something you go along with? Not in the way it is proposed. You have
:38:17. > :38:23.from the Cabinet, from Danny Alexander and Philip Hammond. It is
:38:24. > :38:27.angered out the -- get his anger out there that the independent body
:38:28. > :38:30.needs to react to. I do not think anyone can look at this in a time of
:38:31. > :38:35.first entity and understand how it can hold merit at this moment in
:38:36. > :38:40.time. It is difficult at any moment in time with the disenchantment we
:38:41. > :38:44.have had with MPs expenses. Most people will think, why should we pay
:38:45. > :38:47.them more? I agree with Alun. There's a lot of water to go under
:38:48. > :38:52.the bridge before this becomes reality. If there is a proposal like
:38:53. > :38:57.this, which is independent, and quite rightly, this decision was
:38:58. > :39:01.taken off as after MPs expenses. If any proposals make the light of
:39:02. > :39:04.day, they have to be cost neutral. There cannot be any justification of
:39:05. > :39:09.saying, we're going to simply increase the amount that goes to
:39:10. > :39:13.MPs or two others for that matter. It must be bolted down and say, this
:39:14. > :39:17.will not cost a penny more. I think with the public debated the and the
:39:18. > :39:24.waiters at the moment, they will be a lot of anxiety out here at this
:39:25. > :39:26.proposal. They will be a lot of mileage before the season light of
:39:27. > :39:29.day. Let's go to our Bangor newsroom now
:39:30. > :39:32.to speak to Plaid Cymru's Parliamentary Leader, Elfyn Llwyd.
:39:33. > :39:33.We'll talk about the Autumn Statement in a minute, but we've
:39:34. > :39:43.just been talking we have been talking about this idea
:39:44. > :39:50.a pay rise for MPs. What is your reaction? I agree broadly with what
:39:51. > :39:54.has been said. When you study the package that has been proposed and
:39:55. > :39:58.the cutbacks on living allowances in London, it is not a great deal of an
:39:59. > :40:04.increase, even if it were allowed at 11%. I doubt that will be the case.
:40:05. > :40:06.The independent body do not have the best interests of Members of
:40:07. > :40:14.Parliament at heart. The beer today is down. -- and they are there to do
:40:15. > :40:22.a stone. It will be a tiny increase if at all. Members of Parliament
:40:23. > :40:28.will be worse off than currently. Let's park that they look at the
:40:29. > :40:32.Autumn Statement. There was a broad welcoming from Plaid Cymru for many
:40:33. > :40:36.of the things in it, but you have specific issues, don't you? Mainly
:40:37. > :40:42.around energy and the raising of the pension age. Broadly, of what was
:40:43. > :40:49.your reaction to that? There were good things in it, for example, in
:40:50. > :40:53.terms of smaller businesses. One of the big problems we have is every
:40:54. > :40:57.small business faces harsh business rates. They are right to do so.
:40:58. > :41:02.There are some help there. Other things are quite helpful. You look
:41:03. > :41:06.at this statement and think, if the Chancellor was serious about the
:41:07. > :41:12.need to export more, white isn't there anything at all to help
:41:13. > :41:17.manufacturing within this package? That is nothing whatsoever to help
:41:18. > :41:21.manufacturing. I found that strange. As you rightly point out, the
:41:22. > :41:25.increase in the pension age to 70 is going to disproportionately hit many
:41:26. > :41:31.South Wales valleys were, in some instances, the lifetime expectancy
:41:32. > :41:35.is as low as 75. To expect a person to have five years of retirement
:41:36. > :41:43.pension is grossly unfair, having paid in all those years. The other
:41:44. > :41:48.point about petrol not being increased, that is fine, but it does
:41:49. > :41:53.not help. It is not going to be cut either. In broad terms of household
:41:54. > :42:00.fuel and so on, we as a party would like to see a not-for-profit
:42:01. > :42:06.organisation, energy Wales, being set up. There have been -- there has
:42:07. > :42:11.been a successful model previously. That would be better rather than
:42:12. > :42:16.trying to get a freeze for disarmament of years. Looking at it
:42:17. > :42:21.specifically on a longer term basis, which is the appropriate way
:42:22. > :42:23.forward. What do you make of the adamant, and we will hear from our
:42:24. > :42:29.friends in the studio and a moment, Labour's adamant that George Osborne
:42:30. > :42:36.should not be claiming the praise for turning the economy around? The
:42:37. > :42:40.growth forecasts are improving, aren't they? George Osborne predicts
:42:41. > :42:46.our surplus in the economy. Labour say he should not take the credit.
:42:47. > :42:50.What do you think? There's a point here. The economic cycle is bound to
:42:51. > :42:53.come back injury course. They activities it has longer because of
:42:54. > :42:56.the austerity cuts that George Osborne has gone in for. For him to
:42:57. > :43:01.take the credit because of the economic cycle seems to me to be
:43:02. > :43:05.rather strange because in the past, he has got his figures are wrong.
:43:06. > :43:08.Even if the growth figures are correct, and I will accept for the
:43:09. > :43:12.moment that they are, they are still way, way behind in the previous
:43:13. > :43:17.session growth figures in any event. There is not a great deal of
:43:18. > :43:22.celebration, but clearly, it appears things are improving. It is probably
:43:23. > :43:25.down to the economic cycle. We will address some of that with Alun
:43:26. > :43:32.Cairns in a moment. Before you go, I would like to get your reaction to
:43:33. > :43:36.news of Mandela's death. Whenever the statesman of his stature passes
:43:37. > :43:42.away, we search possibilities. In Nelson Mandela's case, they are all.
:43:43. > :43:46.To have spent 97 years in prison and be released without any rancour to
:43:47. > :43:51.those who kept him in prison, I think is remarkable. I was
:43:52. > :43:55.privileged to have been any audience in 1996 when he addressed both
:43:56. > :44:03.Houses of Parliament. One of the big days that I will never forget my
:44:04. > :44:09.career. -- in my career. Merry Christmas to you, all the
:44:10. > :44:13.best. Let's get your reaction on the statement.
:44:14. > :44:17.Who should take credit for these improved growth figures? George
:44:18. > :44:23.Osborne should not be lapping this up and taking credit. We expect to
:44:24. > :44:27.come out of recession at some point. Our deep regret is this was not
:44:28. > :44:33.happening sooner and that we did not have the investment that we have
:44:34. > :44:38.seen announcements about with infrastructure over the last week.
:44:39. > :44:43.If you want to get the economy moving, invest in house-building. We
:44:44. > :44:46.have the slowest out of house-building going on at the
:44:47. > :44:50.moment. We have a real housing crisis. It gets people working and
:44:51. > :44:57.spending in the high street. We're behind the curve. We behind the
:44:58. > :45:04.curve. Any movement -- any measures of improvement are to be commended.
:45:05. > :45:07.Let me put something clear to begin with. George Osborne does not claim
:45:08. > :45:12.credit. It is the hard-working people in the UK have got to grips
:45:13. > :45:16.with the issues, many who have taken pay cuts. It has kept employment
:45:17. > :45:21.growing and they deserve the credit for turning the economy around.
:45:22. > :45:27.George Osborne can claim credit for holding plan a, because plan a
:45:28. > :45:32.worked. That made the framework to allow people to make a difference.
:45:33. > :45:36.You have got to dig into context the financial crisis in the eurozone,
:45:37. > :45:45.the way that the global economy has not bounced back. Huw is trying to
:45:46. > :45:49.say, well, it is going to come back at some stage anyway. The Japanese
:45:50. > :45:51.economy has not. This is the fastest-growing economy in the
:45:52. > :45:56.developed world. We need to recognise that. We are behind the
:45:57. > :46:02.original projections because of our dependence on the eurozone, and that
:46:03. > :46:04.went into financial meltdown. If they are not buying anything, we
:46:05. > :46:08.cannot export to them. There has been a lot of work by a lot of
:46:09. > :46:13.businesses and employees getting to grips with the recession,
:46:14. > :46:16.restructuring the economy, and in relation to the point about
:46:17. > :46:23.manufacturing, we have the only economy in the developed world where
:46:24. > :46:32.section, including manufacturing, are growing. There's a lot of work
:46:33. > :46:39.to be done to stop -- to be done. Let's accept there were positives.
:46:40. > :46:43.What positives do you take? This has been done in the back of working
:46:44. > :46:47.people, and it has. If you look at my constituency, we have a massive
:46:48. > :46:49.rise in part-time work. We have a massive rise in zero hours
:46:50. > :46:55.contracts. We have people with wage reductions. People are now on
:46:56. > :47:04.average six and -- ?1600 worse off. It is being done on the back of the
:47:05. > :47:11.working poor. The positives, that is some researchers, but very much
:47:12. > :47:17.sectoral driven. New house-building based on the fact of the proposal
:47:18. > :47:22.around the Conservative policy on building new houses by underpinning
:47:23. > :47:28.mortgages to 95% and having a guarantee. This is his bubble
:47:29. > :47:30.territory. Even independent commentators have said there's a
:47:31. > :47:36.danger this be the old-style resurgence. If we have a recovery,
:47:37. > :47:39.let's have it on jobs, manufacturing, full-time jobs. Let's
:47:40. > :47:45.have everyone sharing in this with the earnings going up. At the
:47:46. > :47:50.moment, they have taken a hit. It is unsustainable as a recovery, I think
:47:51. > :47:54.is the point being made. I remember being interviewed by you some months
:47:55. > :47:58.ago when Huw was talking about the prospect of the triple-dip
:47:59. > :48:04.recession. We have had neither of those. Ed Balls and Huw were seeing
:48:05. > :48:08.we were going too far and too fast with the cutbacks, but now it is
:48:09. > :48:12.paying dividends. We have managed to keep borrowing down. We have managed
:48:13. > :48:17.to keep interest-rate stone, which is around -- which has allowed
:48:18. > :48:23.businesses to employ more people, yes, many attack part-time. Latest
:48:24. > :48:27.data shows that is expanding to full-time employment and getting
:48:28. > :48:33.people off the dole queue. That is exactly where we stand. Who's
:48:34. > :48:42.tracked -- Huw's track record on this is completely shot. We were
:48:43. > :48:52.talking about the double dip. It didn't happen. I think Huw would
:48:53. > :48:54.accept it is very close. That is the fundamental question. When George
:48:55. > :49:01.Osborne stands up there and lauds his achievements, and he does and he
:49:02. > :49:06.did in that Autumn Statement. A lot of people will be saying, I know who
:49:07. > :49:10.has taken the pain in this, and it is us. The truth is, people are
:49:11. > :49:15.worse off. There is a real crisis, Alun, with people feeling the brunt
:49:16. > :49:24.of feeling to do that investment Ellie on. We should have had this
:49:25. > :49:27.investment earlier. That is a politician saying, the way to get
:49:28. > :49:33.out of recession is, yes, we have to deal with debt and the deficit, but
:49:34. > :49:38.you have borrowed now in three years more than the Labour Government did
:49:39. > :49:44.in the lifetime of that Government. We will move on shortly. He was
:49:45. > :49:48.talking about more borrowing and spending which got us into the mess
:49:49. > :49:53.in the first place. We're helping to Tom the economy around. -- to turn
:49:54. > :50:01.the economy around. We have a long-term plan. If we had moved to
:50:02. > :50:05.other plans as Huw and Ed Balls called for, we would not be where we
:50:06. > :50:08.are now. We have had their Help to Buy scheme and cut corporation tax
:50:09. > :50:15.to make us more competitive. We have had business rates being cut to help
:50:16. > :50:19.the smallest of businesses. We are far more competitive and responding
:50:20. > :50:21.to the demands of employers. In that position, we are creating more
:50:22. > :50:27.employment and supporting businesses to turn the economy around. We will
:50:28. > :50:30.leave it there. It is safe to suggest you do not agree on this
:50:31. > :50:34.matter. Media nine months, we will have the same discussion again.
:50:35. > :50:37.In the week that former workers at the Remploy factory in Wrexham were
:50:38. > :50:41.made redundant for the second time in 18 months, there is some good
:50:42. > :50:45.news from the Rhondda for some staff who worked at the Remploy site in
:50:46. > :50:48.Porth. More than half of the 56 workers at the computer recycling
:50:49. > :50:52.factory kept jobs when it was taken over by management and has gone on
:50:53. > :50:56.to grow business and is looking to take on more staff in the future. I
:50:57. > :51:00.went to see some of the work being done at the site, which had a guest
:51:01. > :51:04.worker for the day. These laptops are having their hard
:51:05. > :51:07.disks wiped before being sold on or returned to the organisations who
:51:08. > :51:13.sent them here to Porth. It is a growing trade. The building here
:51:14. > :51:17.used to house a similar business run by Remploy, but a management buyout
:51:18. > :51:25.saw 29 of the 56 staff retained to work for a company here. The local
:51:26. > :51:28.AM Leighton Andrews is taking part in their what a day in our shoes
:51:29. > :51:34.campaign, shadowing members of the union at work. But Mister Andrews
:51:35. > :51:37.and the union have been involved in securing jobs here for Remploy
:51:38. > :51:39.workers made redundant following the decision made by the UK Government
:51:40. > :51:48.to close Remploy factories across the country. It is great to see this
:51:49. > :51:51.business succeeding. I think it has a big future, because clearly there
:51:52. > :51:54.are more and more computers in the world. You get business from the
:51:55. > :52:00.public sector and business from the private sector. I think this company
:52:01. > :52:05.can grow. About Government says that around 200 former workers have found
:52:06. > :52:09.jobs due to the Remploy support scheme, including staff here. The
:52:10. > :52:12.man in charge in Porth is delighted to be able to keep former Remploy
:52:13. > :52:19.staff on, even though the company has to pay a premium to do so. The
:52:20. > :52:24.salaries being paid to operators are significantly higher than the market
:52:25. > :52:30.rate is, but myself and my partner Tony, we accept that those were the
:52:31. > :52:36.salaries, everything we did in the budgets was based on that. The terms
:52:37. > :52:41.and conditions are very good. We know that we are offsetting some of
:52:42. > :52:47.the profits, but actually, we wanted to continue the good things that
:52:48. > :52:51.Remploy did. As another hard disk is wiped clean, staff here will only
:52:52. > :52:56.have memories of this place in the future, as the company is moving to
:52:57. > :53:01.a new location in time for the New Year.
:53:02. > :53:07.What do make of that story? It is not good news everywhere for Remploy
:53:08. > :53:09.workers, but it is there. It is a great success. Leighton Andrews
:53:10. > :53:14.deserves credit for the part he played in that. It goes to show that
:53:15. > :53:18.no change is not an option. We should not be fearful of change. Was
:53:19. > :53:25.the right decision made by the UK Government to close these factors?
:53:26. > :53:28.Yes, to allow restructuring. It was supported by disability charities
:53:29. > :53:32.because so much was the end spent per person when it could be spent on
:53:33. > :53:35.other people in other ways. That is the evidence of it, that that
:53:36. > :53:41.business has picked itself up, turned itself around, and
:53:42. > :53:45.taxpayers' money is supporting disabled people in other areas
:53:46. > :53:53.elsewhere. It is about making the most of the value. That is one
:53:54. > :53:59.example, isn't it, but you have had examples of finding work in your
:54:00. > :54:04.constituency? Yes. I was there about 18 months ago with Leighton. Chris
:54:05. > :54:09.Bryant has also done a lot of good work there. It is a good success
:54:10. > :54:11.story. It is not been success. I know individuals who did not find
:54:12. > :54:17.employment when Remploy closed. We have seen similar models in Bridgend
:54:18. > :54:20.where, when lay-offs happened, groups got together with contracts
:54:21. > :54:23.that were already there. That is the frustrating thing. Contracts were
:54:24. > :54:27.available. They have put the enterprise back together in a
:54:28. > :54:34.private or mutual model. It shows what can be done, Alun is right or
:54:35. > :54:39.not. From my perspective, when people have not gone back into
:54:40. > :54:42.employment, others have reconstituted the business that was
:54:43. > :54:46.there. It was our argued that, actually, there is a business model
:54:47. > :54:52.that could work. We did not need to shut every factory. The other thing
:54:53. > :54:56.that was interesting was the mentioned the Welsh Government
:54:57. > :55:02.support on this. There are still jobs at opinion. I think that is
:55:03. > :55:07.right, you know. It is worth paying extra to have people bear with the
:55:08. > :55:13.value and dignity of a job. We see devolution in action. One Government
:55:14. > :55:18.disagrees with an other one. The Welsh garments chose its own path.
:55:19. > :55:21.That is fine. I give credit to the local Assembly Member for his work
:55:22. > :55:28.in this respect. It goes to show that we should not be fearful or
:55:29. > :55:30.oppose every sort of change. We were fortunate to disability charity
:55:31. > :55:34.supported the UK Government's move because we recognise we could not
:55:35. > :55:40.continue spending taxpayers' money on so few people. That could be
:55:41. > :55:43.spent on other people in other ways and that has now released a great
:55:44. > :55:46.resource which has led to a successful business. More power to
:55:47. > :55:50.them, I say. Time now for a quick look back at
:55:51. > :56:01.some of the political stories of the week in sixty seconds.
:56:02. > :56:04.The First Minister announced an independent review into the alleged
:56:05. > :56:09.neglect of more than 100 elderly people at a number of care homes in
:56:10. > :56:15.South Wales. It follows an investigation by Gwent Police.
:56:16. > :56:24.Andrew Arty Davis called on shoppers to support the local markets and
:56:25. > :56:31.support local jobs well bringing up by them so back to town centres.
:56:32. > :56:36.This man back to Football Association of Wales' campaign to
:56:37. > :56:40.improve the behaviour of parents at children's football matches. He said
:56:41. > :56:49.some parents behaved appallingly. It discouraged children from playing.
:56:50. > :56:53.And flags at half-mast at the Welsh Assembly as a mark of respect for
:56:54. > :56:56.Nelson Mandela. She said the world was a better
:56:57. > :57:08.place with his contribution. We saw flags flying at half-mast at
:57:09. > :57:17.the Assembly following the death of Nelson Mandela. You heard the First
:57:18. > :57:22.Minister speak earlier. It was phenomenal. A lot of people have not
:57:23. > :57:28.remarked the media mother Nelson Mandela had. He has people rolling
:57:29. > :57:31.in the aisles. He had a quiet dignity with the thing. Though
:57:32. > :57:36.Clinton summed it up in his response. Bill Clinton knew Nelson
:57:37. > :57:41.Mandela will. He said the gift of the man was that he may just buy out
:57:42. > :57:48.to be that much better than you were and to feel and try again to be
:57:49. > :57:54.better. There is significant in that. As politicians, we are
:57:55. > :57:57.absolutely floored. I have not seen a saint amongst politicians, good or
:57:58. > :58:03.bad. You have to keep on trying, do the best for the community and
:58:04. > :58:08.people, and for natural justice. He was, if you look back on the 20th
:58:09. > :58:13.century, possibly the standard person, above politics, who is a
:58:14. > :58:17.real statesman. We're mourning his passing, but what we can actually
:58:18. > :58:24.celebrate is what he contributed as an ideal of what we should try to
:58:25. > :58:26.be. I have to describe -- I heard him described this morning as
:58:27. > :58:33.amongst the Gandhi and Martin Luther King. He was that kind of figure.
:58:34. > :58:39.Certainly. I visited South Africa within two years of apartheid
:58:40. > :58:42.tending. -- apartheid ending. You could see the seats next to bus
:58:43. > :58:49.stops Willie had scraped away the whites only sign. It was a healing
:58:50. > :58:52.process at that time. I was encouraged by the responses that
:58:53. > :59:00.were there, but there was a tension that he managed to overcome. It is
:59:01. > :59:03.quite inspirational. Tributes will continue as we look ahead to the
:59:04. > :59:08.funeral next Sunday. That will be an enormous event. Deservedly so. One
:59:09. > :59:15.of the things I had not understood was that when South Africa won the
:59:16. > :59:19.Rugby World Cup final in South Africa, he wore the Springbok
:59:20. > :59:24.jersey. I had not appreciated the significance of him doing that. That
:59:25. > :59:29.really sent such a strong message to the Afrikaans community that was so
:59:30. > :59:35.associated with rugby. That is something we would associate
:59:36. > :59:38.ourselves with. It is worth also singling out some of those people at
:59:39. > :59:46.the heart of the anti-apartheid movement, including people like
:59:47. > :59:50.Peter Hain. It shows in the big debates we have had about sport and
:59:51. > :59:54.politics and whether they should mix, well, yes. As we'll look at the
:59:55. > :59:57.Winter limpets, the same things comes to equality. -- the Winter
:59:58. > :59:58.Olympics. Tomorrow, the House of Commons will
:59:59. > :00:23.pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela. Our nation has lost its greatest
:00:24. > :00:49.son. Our people have lost a father. The first thing I ever did that
:00:50. > :00:50.involved an issue or policy, or politics, was protest against
:00:51. > :01:02.apartheid. I think his greatest legacy, to
:01:03. > :01:12.South Africa and to the world, is the emphasis which he has always put
:01:13. > :01:20.on the need for a conciliation, on the importance of human rights. He
:01:21. > :01:24.also made us understand that we can change the world. We can change the
:01:25. > :01:30.world by changing attitudes, by changing perceptions. For this
:01:31. > :01:40.reason, I would like to pay him tribute as a great human being, who
:01:41. > :01:49.raised the standard of humanity. Thank you for the gift of Madiba.
:01:50. > :01:59.Thank you for what he has enabled us to know we can become.
:02:00. > :02:08.We are joined now by the Labour MP Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not
:02:09. > :02:13.one after he was released from prison in 1990. He went as an
:02:14. > :02:18.election observer for the first one person, one-vote in South Africa. I
:02:19. > :02:21.would guess, of all the people you met in your life, you must have been
:02:22. > :02:27.the most impressive and biggest influence? He was extraordinary. He
:02:28. > :02:31.had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot
:02:32. > :02:37.of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without
:02:38. > :02:42.bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his
:02:43. > :02:47.achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that
:02:48. > :02:50.if you have black majority rule, you might have a bloodbath. It's down to
:02:51. > :02:55.Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I remember FW de Klerk saying that
:02:56. > :03:04.Mandela was the key to getting a peaceful transition. Absolutely the
:03:05. > :03:10.key, an amazing man. London was one of the centres, people talked about
:03:11. > :03:12.it as being the other centre of the anti-apartheid struggle. That
:03:13. > :03:18.anti-apartheid struggle in London, it had an effect on black politics
:03:19. > :03:23.in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were black and politically active at the
:03:24. > :03:27.time, the apartheid struggle, the struggle against white supremacy in
:03:28. > :03:31.South Africa, was very important. Whatever your colour, the
:03:32. > :03:36.anti-apartheid struggle, for our generation, was the political
:03:37. > :03:40.campaign. We have the 50th anniversary of Kennedy's
:03:41. > :03:44.assassination. Mr Mandela's death. We are kind of running out of people
:03:45. > :03:48.that inspired us? I will never forget where I was when I saw him
:03:49. > :03:53.come out of prison, hand-in-hand with the women, I might add. If you
:03:54. > :03:58.have spent your whole teenage years and 20 is boycotting, marching,
:03:59. > :04:06.picketing, to see him actually come out was amazing. Do you think it was
:04:07. > :04:13.more exciting to meet you or the Spice Girls? I think the Spice
:04:14. > :04:16.Girls. What did the Labour backbenchers think about Ed Balls's
:04:17. > :04:20.performance after the Autumn Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a
:04:21. > :04:24.brilliant man, but I think even he would say that it was not his best
:04:25. > :04:29.performance. But if you look at the polls, the public liked the points
:04:30. > :04:34.he made. The backbenchers were quiet, there was something wrong? I
:04:35. > :04:39.noticed that. It was like a wall of sound, deliberately. They know that
:04:40. > :04:42.under pressure his stamina might come back and it is difficult for
:04:43. > :04:48.him. That is what they were trying to incite. I have had experience
:04:49. > :04:51.first hand, a look at all of these anonymous and sometimes not
:04:52. > :05:03.anonymous quotes in the media. The spinning has begun against him? This
:05:04. > :05:07.is the party of brotherly love, no matter what the Tories say, we can
:05:08. > :05:14.say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to
:05:15. > :05:18.Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he
:05:19. > :05:23.wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless
:05:24. > :05:28.enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid
:05:29. > :05:33.of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed
:05:34. > :05:38.Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the
:05:39. > :05:41.right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed
:05:42. > :05:45.Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview
:05:46. > :05:49.because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument
:05:50. > :05:54.with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just
:05:55. > :06:01.about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to
:06:02. > :06:04.look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of
:06:05. > :06:10.living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than
:06:11. > :06:13.that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective
:06:14. > :06:18.member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown
:06:19. > :06:22.years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys
:06:23. > :06:26.that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to
:06:27. > :06:30.replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,
:06:31. > :06:33.Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the
:06:34. > :06:38.Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't think he would do it. Talk about
:06:39. > :06:43.shifting tectonic plates, it would, wouldn't it? But it is a step too
:06:44. > :06:51.far. Ed Balls would not be too happy. It is not something you would
:06:52. > :06:58.want to do lightly. That sounds a bit of a threat. Not from you. I
:06:59. > :07:04.can't see Ed Balls magnanimously retreating and say, go on, Alistair
:07:05. > :07:08.Darling, take the job I have been after all career. Where do you put
:07:09. > :07:12.him? Do you make him a middle ranking business or welfare
:07:13. > :07:16.secretary? He wouldn't do that. If you sack him, he would retreat to
:07:17. > :07:21.the backbenchers. He might take up knitting and practices piano scales,
:07:22. > :07:27.or he might have a blood feud with Ed Miliband. I don't know which
:07:28. > :07:31.could be. You look back to when he was schools Secretary, you could
:07:32. > :07:34.feel he was constantly fuming. I think he is better inside the tent,
:07:35. > :07:39.looking out, than the other way around. The thing one Labour
:07:40. > :07:42.strategist said to me was that he is too much looking into the rear-view
:07:43. > :07:45.mirror, when it comes to economic policy. He needs to look ahead
:07:46. > :07:52.through the windscreen. That had some resonance? He was at the centre
:07:53. > :07:56.of Labour's economic policy-making from the mid-90s. So it's hard for
:07:57. > :08:01.him but he has to look forward. There is an interesting comparison
:08:02. > :08:05.with 2009. Gordon Brown got in trouble when he said the choice is
:08:06. > :08:09.between Labour investment and Tory cuts. Everybody knew it was between
:08:10. > :08:13.Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other words, he was not acknowledging
:08:14. > :08:17.reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can say it is the wrong sort of
:08:18. > :08:20.recovery, but there is a recovery. Does he not need to absorb that
:08:21. > :08:27.punch and say there is a recovery, then people will listen to him?
:08:28. > :08:30.Possibly. We know that the macroeconomics are looking better.
:08:31. > :08:34.We also know people are not experiencing it as a recovery in
:08:35. > :08:40.living standards. No one, not even Tories, really believe that David
:08:41. > :08:44.Cameron knows what it is like for middle-income people to live normal
:08:45. > :08:47.lives. Living standards is particularly powerful because of the
:08:48. > :08:52.composition of the government? Don't go away. This time last year we
:08:53. > :08:55.ambushed our political panel with a quiz. They didn't come out of it
:08:56. > :08:59.smelling of roses, but they did come out rather smelly.
:09:00. > :09:09.Will the coalition still be in place a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I
:09:10. > :09:16.say definitely as well. From now, one year, will we know the date of
:09:17. > :09:22.the European referendum? Yes. No. I say no as well. How much growth will
:09:23. > :09:27.there be? Less than 1%. Father Christmas is less qualified than me,
:09:28. > :09:36.but I will go for one. I will go for a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a
:09:37. > :09:41.third of that. I am with you, and 1%. We didn't do too badly. What
:09:42. > :09:48.will growth be next year? I will remind you, the OBR has upgraded to
:09:49. > :09:53.2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got it wrong last year. Well, they went
:09:54. > :09:58.down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and
:09:59. > :10:05.claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it
:10:06. > :10:08.wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular
:10:09. > :10:15.growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is
:10:16. > :10:20.incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%, because the housing market in London
:10:21. > :10:25.is rocketing. It would be closer to 3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed
:10:26. > :10:37.Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes,
:10:38. > :10:40.I value my life. Will UKIP mean the European elections, by which I mean
:10:41. > :10:51.have the highest percentage of the vote? Yes. Second behind Labour.
:10:52. > :10:54.Second behind Labour. Will Alex Salmond win the independence
:10:55. > :11:00.referendum? No, but it will be closer than we think. No, unless
:11:01. > :11:08.they do something catastrophic like let Cameron debate him. Too close to
:11:09. > :11:14.call. Controversial. How many Romanians and Bulgarians will come
:11:15. > :11:21.to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than anyone thinks. The entire population
:11:22. > :11:25.of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel Farage thanks. I'll go with that,
:11:26. > :11:32.I'm confident. A change of tone for your magazine. Not many will come,
:11:33. > :11:35.but a lot here already will normalise and be counted into
:11:36. > :11:41.figures. Too many for most right-wing commentators. I think
:11:42. > :11:47.quite a few will come, but not the kind of numbers that made such a
:11:48. > :11:54.huge difference. This time, everybody is open. They do like to
:11:55. > :11:58.speak English, that is the reason they want to come. We'll all three
:11:59. > :12:06.of you still be here by this time next year? Yes. Would you recommend
:12:07. > :12:11.that? Yes, keep them. And he has lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If
:12:12. > :12:20.you can keep affording me, I will be here. I hope so, it sounds like you
:12:21. > :12:28.have a firing squad outside. I hope so, maybe you will find some true
:12:29. > :12:33.talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they? Let me put this to you, I think you
:12:34. > :12:39.will agree. The coalition will not break now, this side of the election
:12:40. > :12:44.next year? There will not be... They will not go their own ways by this
:12:45. > :12:52.time next year? Of next year, maybe just after. Early 2015. This side of
:12:53. > :12:58.the election? What is the UKIP view? I don't think there is an advantage
:12:59. > :13:01.to either of them. If the Lib Dems pulled out, they would look like
:13:02. > :13:05.there were a lodger in the Tory house of government. I think it
:13:06. > :13:09.would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think
:13:10. > :13:12.that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick
:13:13. > :13:19.Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all
:13:20. > :13:22.of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the
:13:23. > :13:26.grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force
:13:27. > :13:30.that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.
:13:31. > :13:38.I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives
:13:39. > :13:43.you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the
:13:44. > :13:50.first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the
:13:51. > :13:52.Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.