:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be
:00:45. > :00:47.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent
:00:48. > :00:51.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the
:00:52. > :00:56.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant
:00:57. > :01:00.development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has
:01:01. > :01:09.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow
:01:10. > :01:15.Later in the programme: These are Another
:01:16. > :01:17.Later in the programme: These are taxing times for Labour and for the
:01:18. > :01:19.Conservatives. We speak to one of the Tory Assembly
:01:20. > :01:22.rebels. out his budget for next year. We
:01:23. > :01:33.look at his decisions and priorities with the help of his chief of staff.
:01:34. > :01:42.With me, the best and brightest political panel in the business. The
:01:43. > :01:47.twits will be as incessant and probably as welcome as the recent
:01:48. > :01:49.rain. A significant new development in the debate over Scottish
:01:50. > :01:54.independence this morning, the President of the European
:01:55. > :01:58.Commission, President Jose Manuel Barroso, has confirmed what the
:01:59. > :02:00.Nationalists have long denied, that an independent Scotland would have
:02:01. > :02:04.to reply to join the European Union as a new member, that it would
:02:05. > :02:09.require the agreement of all 28 member states and that would be, in
:02:10. > :02:13.his words, extremely difficult, if not impossible. In case there is a
:02:14. > :02:17.new country, a new state coming out of a current member state, it will
:02:18. > :02:23.have to apply and, this is very important, the application to the
:02:24. > :02:31.union would have to be approved by all of the other member states.
:02:32. > :02:35.Countries like Spain, with the secessionist issues they have? I
:02:36. > :02:37.don't want to interfere in your democratic discussion here, but of
:02:38. > :02:43.course, it will be extremely difficult to get the approval of all
:02:44. > :02:46.of the other member states, to have a new member coming in from one
:02:47. > :02:54.member state. We have seen that that Spain has been opposing even the
:02:55. > :02:59.recognition, for instance, so it is a similar state. It is a new
:03:00. > :03:05.country. I believe it is great to be externally difficult, if not
:03:06. > :03:09.impossible. Well, he says he doesn't want to interfere, but he has just
:03:10. > :03:13.dropped a medium-sized explosive into the debate on Scottish
:03:14. > :03:17.independence? A huge story. Alex Salmond must be wondering what is
:03:18. > :03:21.going to go wrong next. His pitch to the Scottish people is based on two
:03:22. > :03:23.things, the currency union with England and the rest of the United
:03:24. > :03:31.Kingdom, which was blown apart last week, and this morning, his claims
:03:32. > :03:45.that Scotland would automatically get into the European Union has been
:03:46. > :03:49.dynamited. He's not only saying that they would have to apply, it is also
:03:50. > :03:55.saying it might be impossible to get the agreement of all 28 members to
:03:56. > :03:59.allow Scotland in. That's even more significant than the application?
:04:00. > :04:05.The reference to Spain is interesting, we talk about Catalan
:04:06. > :04:10.independence, an economic and active area that Spain does not want to be
:04:11. > :04:13.independent. About five other countries are blocking Kosovo's
:04:14. > :04:17.accession to the EU. There is no reason they would want to encourage
:04:18. > :04:22.the secessionist in their country by letting Scotland do the same. If
:04:23. > :04:26.Scotland does have to apply, and it does get in, it solves the currency
:04:27. > :04:32.problem because all new members have to accept the Euro? At the moment,
:04:33. > :04:36.the SNP are rejecting that quite strongly. What an interesting
:04:37. > :04:43.intervention today. However, I know that those arguing that Scotland
:04:44. > :04:49.should stay in the union are worried that the polls are tightening. A lot
:04:50. > :04:55.of these interventions, parents care arguments, they don't look like they
:04:56. > :04:59.are convincing the Scottish people. We haven't had any polls yet? We
:05:00. > :05:02.haven't, but we have since the currency debate was reignited in the
:05:03. > :05:07.last few weeks and it shows the polls tightening slightly. I think
:05:08. > :05:10.Alistair Darling's campaign would prefer to be much further ahead at
:05:11. > :05:15.the stage. They are worried that these technical commandments are not
:05:16. > :05:17.having much sway. Are the polls tightening slightly? They could be
:05:18. > :05:25.within the statistical margin for error. They are, but not much. Alex
:05:26. > :05:29.Salmond's main page is one of reassurance. He wants to say you can
:05:30. > :05:31.vote for independence, a pound in the pocket will be the same as
:05:32. > :05:38.before and you will still be a member of the European Union. In the
:05:39. > :05:44.last three or four matter days, both of those claims have been blown
:05:45. > :05:48.apart. Angus MacNeil has already told BBC Radio 5 Live that the
:05:49. > :05:51.remarks are nonsense and he is playing more politics. We hope to
:05:52. > :05:57.speak to the SNP's finance minister, John Swinney, a little bit later in
:05:58. > :06:00.the programme. It is not just the constant rain that London commuters
:06:01. > :06:05.have had to deal with. There was also a strike on the tube that
:06:06. > :06:08.disrupted the travel of millions. A second stoppage was on the cards,
:06:09. > :06:11.but it was called off at the last minute.
:06:12. > :06:16.The leader of the biggest underground workers union, the RMT,
:06:17. > :06:21.is Bob Crow, who has led his members into 24 strikes on the tube since
:06:22. > :06:24.2005, as well as disputes on the national rail network. Under his
:06:25. > :06:30.leadership, the union's membership has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to
:06:31. > :06:32.more than 80,000, at a time when union membership overall has been
:06:33. > :06:37.shrinking. The current dispute has seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris
:06:38. > :06:41.Johnson over the mayor's plans to close tube station ticket offices.
:06:42. > :06:46.The 48-hour stoppage at the beginning of this month is estimated
:06:47. > :06:51.to have cost the London economy ?100 million. The two sides have agreed a
:06:52. > :06:55.truce, for now, but Mr Crow has threatened further action if the
:06:56. > :06:57.mayor imposes his changes. Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday
:06:58. > :07:08.interview. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You
:07:09. > :07:16.have suspended the strike for the moment. What will it take to call it
:07:17. > :07:19.off entirely? Want to know first of all wider booking office has to
:07:20. > :07:22.close. The Mayor of London made it quite clear in his election
:07:23. > :07:26.programme that the booking offices would remain open. It was strange,
:07:27. > :07:29.really, because Ken Livingstone wanted to close them down and the
:07:30. > :07:32.mayor thought it was popular to keep them open and put in his campaign to
:07:33. > :07:39.keep them open. However, we have not the news figures. We are being told
:07:40. > :07:43.only 3% of people use the booking offices. That's not true. In
:07:44. > :07:46.research done, if somebody does to a booking office with somebody sitting
:07:47. > :07:51.there and asks for a ticket of less than ?5, they are not allowed to
:07:52. > :07:57.sell them a ticket, it is madness. Do you use the ticket office? When
:07:58. > :08:02.it is open, yes. You said to ITV that he didn't. I don't know what I
:08:03. > :08:05.said to ITV, I don't know what time people use them, sometimes they are
:08:06. > :08:08.open and sometimes they are closed. People make out that these ticket
:08:09. > :08:12.office staff are people that sit behind barriers like a newsagent.
:08:13. > :08:18.I'm not knocking a newsagent, however, these people were the same
:08:19. > :08:25.people treated like Lions when they were helping people named in the
:08:26. > :08:28.terrorist incidents, taking them out of the panels. Suddenly they are
:08:29. > :08:32.lazy people that sit in ticket offices. My understanding is that
:08:33. > :08:35.the people would come from behind and be out and about now. It is the
:08:36. > :08:41.management wants to run the underground without ticket offices,
:08:42. > :08:47.isn't that their prerogative? They are paid to manage, not you, not
:08:48. > :08:51.your members, they are the managers? Managers are there to manage, and we
:08:52. > :08:53.want good managers. But we've got some really bad managers that are
:08:54. > :08:56.not looking at the railway as a whole. This is a successful
:08:57. > :09:00.industry, not an industry in decline, one of the most successful
:09:01. > :09:04.in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million people a day. All of the forecast is
:09:05. > :09:09.or it will move to 3.6 million per day. The mayor wants to run services
:09:10. > :09:12.on a Friday and Saturday night. We are not opposed to that. However, it
:09:13. > :09:17.does not make sense that if more people are going to be using the
:09:18. > :09:20.tube on Friday and Saturday, coming home at two o'clock three o'clock in
:09:21. > :09:27.the morning, a lot of people drinking, a lot of people not
:09:28. > :09:31.dragging, why take 1000 people of the network that come to the aid of
:09:32. > :09:36.people that are looking to people? I want to show you this picture. This
:09:37. > :09:43.is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I think it is. I was trying to copy
:09:44. > :09:47.you. You deserve this break because you have done a fantastic job for
:09:48. > :09:51.your members. Yes, I don't see what that has got to do with it. Let's
:09:52. > :09:55.get every editor of the daily newspapers and see where they go on
:09:56. > :10:00.their holidays, I would like to know. What I choose to do... I'm not
:10:01. > :10:04.attacking you for doing that... You've got a picture up there, I've
:10:05. > :10:08.got to say, why don't they go and follow Boris Johnson when he was
:10:09. > :10:12.away on holiday, when the riots were taking place in London, and he
:10:13. > :10:15.refused to come back? Why don't they go and view the editors of
:10:16. > :10:18.newspapers, where they go on holiday? Why do they look at you
:10:19. > :10:22.when you go on holiday? They sometimes do, actually. The basic
:10:23. > :10:29.pay of a tube driver will soon be ?52,000. Ticket office workers are
:10:30. > :10:33.already earning over ?35,000. Never mind a holiday on Copacabana beach,
:10:34. > :10:37.or membership by your house for what you have done for them? When you
:10:38. > :10:41.look at the papers this morning, I see that Wayne Rooney is going to
:10:42. > :10:45.get a ?70 million deal over the next four deals. I see NHS doctors are
:10:46. > :10:53.getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot of people that do a lot of people
:10:54. > :10:57.that, in my opinion, don't do anything for society. The top paid
:10:58. > :11:00.people in this country should be doctors and nurses. Unfortunately,
:11:01. > :11:05.we live in a jungle. If you are not strong, the bosses will walk all
:11:06. > :11:08.over you. The reason why we got good terms and conditions is because we
:11:09. > :11:13.fought for them. The reality is, all of these three political parties,
:11:14. > :11:17.liberals, Tories and Labour, they have all put no programme that to
:11:18. > :11:21.defend working people. So we have to do it on our own. And that is why
:11:22. > :11:23.you have done such a great job for your members and why union
:11:24. > :11:26.membership has been rising, people want to be part of a successful
:11:27. > :11:33.operation. But it has come at a cost for less well-paid workers, who
:11:34. > :11:37.travel on the cheap? If everyone believes if London Underground tube
:11:38. > :11:40.workers take a pay freeze they are going to redistribute the money to
:11:41. > :11:45.the rest of the workers that work on the cheap... But the people that
:11:46. > :11:49.travel on the tube, let's look at some of them, they are the ones that
:11:50. > :11:54.suffer from your strike action. The starting salary of a cheap driver
:11:55. > :12:01.now, ?48,000. The starting salary for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22,000
:12:02. > :12:04.for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a teacher starting out. As your
:12:05. > :12:12.members have spread, they have had to live through 24 strikes in 13
:12:13. > :12:20.years to push up your members wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The
:12:21. > :12:25.have put a pay freeze on by conservatives and liberals. The
:12:26. > :12:29.police constables, so have the teachers. We have had the ability to
:12:30. > :12:34.go and fight. The reality is, at the end of the day, as I have said
:12:35. > :12:38.before, no one is going to put up the cause for workers. Not one
:12:39. > :12:42.single party in parliament are fighting the cause for workers. They
:12:43. > :12:46.all support privatisation, they all support keeping the anti-trade union
:12:47. > :12:50.laws, they all support illegal wars around the world. Unless they have a
:12:51. > :12:55.fighting trade union, our members pay would be as low as some others.
:12:56. > :12:58.You said we could not care less if we have 1 million strikes. But these
:12:59. > :13:05.people, the lower paid people who travel on the tube, who need it as
:13:06. > :13:07.an essential service, they care. Of course they care, I've said before
:13:08. > :13:14.that I apologise to the troubling public for the dispute that took
:13:15. > :13:19.place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It two to tango. If the boy never
:13:20. > :13:24.imposed terms and conditions on us against our will... But you've got
:13:25. > :13:30.great terms and conditions! But it's a constant battle, they are trying
:13:31. > :13:35.to change them. Drivers are having their pay going up to ?50,000. You
:13:36. > :13:38.said they are making it worse, it is going up. They are trying to make
:13:39. > :13:43.things worse for workers. You said at the start of the interview that
:13:44. > :13:48.the tube strike cost ?100 million in two days. It means that when members
:13:49. > :13:50.go to work for two days it is worth ?100 million. That demonstrates what
:13:51. > :13:56.they are worth. Only a fighting trade union can defend workers out
:13:57. > :14:00.there. Your members should enjoy what you have got for them, because
:14:01. > :14:04.it's not going to last, is it? Technology will change the whole way
:14:05. > :14:10.your business operates. As Karl Marx says, you said I was a mixture of
:14:11. > :14:14.Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and the Sopranos. I thought that was
:14:15. > :14:20.quite funny... The Karl Marx part of it, the only thing that is constant
:14:21. > :14:26.is change. We have been crying out for new technology. But for who? To
:14:27. > :14:30.put people on the dole, so they can't do anything and do anything
:14:31. > :14:34.for society, or technology so everybody benefits, lower fares,
:14:35. > :14:38.better service and better terms and conditions for the workers. But you
:14:39. > :14:43.have made Labour so expensive on the underground that management now has
:14:44. > :14:47.a huge incentive to substitute technology for Labour. And that's
:14:48. > :14:49.what it's going to do, it is closing the ticket offices and very soon,
:14:50. > :14:55.starting in 2016, the driverless trains coming. What I am saying is
:14:56. > :15:06.that your members should enjoy this because it's not going to last.
:15:07. > :15:16.Driverless trains are not coming in, it is not safe. We have them in
:15:17. > :15:21.Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it is not safe? These are new lines
:15:22. > :15:26.that have been built so that when it breaks down, people can get out of
:15:27. > :15:32.the tunnel. Would you want to be stuck on a summers day on the
:15:33. > :15:37.Northern line? A pregnant woman who cannot get off the train? Absolute
:15:38. > :15:43.panic that takes place, the reality is simple, it is a nonsense. It's
:15:44. > :15:49.not going to happen because it is a Victorian network. On Docklands
:15:50. > :15:57.railway for example it is driverless but when the train breaks down, it
:15:58. > :16:04.is above ground on a very small section. All of these other cities
:16:05. > :16:17.managed to have it. You remind me about Henry Ford in the 1930s when
:16:18. > :16:24.he said, you see that robot over their, he cannot buy a car. All
:16:25. > :16:30.sorts of new jobs are being created all the time in other areas. Come
:16:31. > :16:34.back to the ticket offices, not many people use the ticket offices any
:16:35. > :16:39.more, what is wrong with getting the stuff out of the ticket office on to
:16:40. > :16:43.the concourses, meeting and greeting, helping disabled people
:16:44. > :16:50.and tourists and making it a better service? They can do more on the
:16:51. > :16:55.concourse than they can in the ticket office. Andrew, he took the
:16:56. > :17:03.decision to close down every single ticket office. You cannot compare
:17:04. > :17:08.for example Chesham with the likes of Heathrow. Are you telling me
:17:09. > :17:15.people are going to be on a long transatlantic flight, arrived at
:17:16. > :17:22.Heathrow and cannot get a ticket. The stuff will be redeployed on the
:17:23. > :17:27.concourse. The simple problem is that it is not just about the
:17:28. > :17:32.booking office, it is about people having a visual. If you are
:17:33. > :17:39.partially sighted, you cannot use the machines. If British is not your
:17:40. > :17:45.first language, you cannot use the offices. How many languages do your
:17:46. > :17:55.members speak? I don't know, I struggle with English. The machines
:17:56. > :18:01.can speak many different languages. They are dehumanising things. You
:18:02. > :18:07.phone the bank, all you hear is, press one for this, two for that.
:18:08. > :18:09.People want to hear it human being and what makes the London
:18:10. > :18:16.Underground so precious is that people want to see people. Having
:18:17. > :18:23.well-dressed, motivated people out on the concourse, what part of that
:18:24. > :18:27.don't you like? They will be on the concourse and they will have
:18:28. > :18:30.machines. The fact is that London Underground did a risk assessment of
:18:31. > :18:35.closing down their booking offices and it is clear that if you are
:18:36. > :18:42.disabled, if you are partially sighted, London Underground becomes
:18:43. > :18:49.more dangerous. You are posing the closing of ticket offices, opposing
:18:50. > :19:01.driverless trains, when you opposed to the Oyster card when it came in?
:19:02. > :19:08.No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal with it. It is not the only way.
:19:09. > :19:13.They should supplement the staff and the job. If more people used the
:19:14. > :19:19.London Underground system, you want more staff to deal with them. Let's
:19:20. > :19:31.look at your mandate to strike. Of your members who work on the Tube,
:19:32. > :19:37.only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30% voted for the strike, so 70%
:19:38. > :19:42.actually didn't vote to strike of your members, but the strike went
:19:43. > :19:47.ahead. Isn't it right to have a higher threshold before you can
:19:48. > :19:52.cause this disruption? It would be lovely if everyone voted but the
:19:53. > :19:58.Tories took that away. We used to have ballots at the workplace. What
:19:59. > :20:06.I'm trying to say to you is that we used to have a ballot box at the
:20:07. > :20:10.workplace and the turnouts were higher. The Tories believe that if
:20:11. > :20:16.they can have a secret ballot where ballot papers went to people's home
:20:17. > :20:21.addresses, where they could be persuaded by the bosses, votes would
:20:22. > :20:28.be different. Let's go back to the workplace ballot because you get a
:20:29. > :20:33.bigger turnout. Will the RMT re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I
:20:34. > :20:41.have no intention to. We got expelled from the Labour Party. But
:20:42. > :20:49.you will give some money to the Labour councils? Those that support
:20:50. > :20:56.our basic policies get money, we don't give money directly to MPs, we
:20:57. > :21:05.give it to constituencies. Are you going to stand for re-election in
:21:06. > :21:11.2016? I might do, I might not. You haven't decided yet? No, but more
:21:12. > :21:18.than likely I will do. And will you stand again as an anti-EU candidate?
:21:19. > :21:25.Yes, I am standing in London, and right across, completely different
:21:26. > :21:29.to UKIP's policies. They are anti-European, they believe all of
:21:30. > :21:36.the faults of Europe are down to the immigrants. We are anti-European
:21:37. > :21:42.Union. If London Underground is as badly run as you think, why don't
:21:43. > :21:48.you run for mayor? That is down the road, it has not come up yet. I'm
:21:49. > :21:55.not ruling anything out. I'm not ruling out getting your job on the
:21:56. > :22:01.Sunday Politics. You have got to retire as well, you have got to put
:22:02. > :22:06.your feet up. I will get you to renegotiate my package. Shall we go
:22:07. > :22:20.on strike first? If I could have your wages, I would have two trips
:22:21. > :22:23.to Rio every year. Good luck. And if you're in the London region they'll
:22:24. > :22:30.have more on the Tube strike later in the programme. Let's get back to
:22:31. > :22:38.those comments from Jose Manuel Barroso, and reaction to these
:22:39. > :22:44.comments from John Swinney. Scottish Nationalists denied all along you
:22:45. > :22:51.would have to reapply, we have now heard it without any caveats, you
:22:52. > :22:57.will and you might not get in. I think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments
:22:58. > :23:03.were preposterous this morning. He compared the situation to the one in
:23:04. > :23:08.Kosovo. Britain is the member, Scotland is not the member. If you
:23:09. > :23:14.go independent, you will have to reapply, he says. All of the
:23:15. > :23:17.arrangements we have in place are compatible with the workings of the
:23:18. > :23:22.European Union because we have been part of it for 40 years. The
:23:23. > :23:28.propositions we put forward work about essentially negotiating the
:23:29. > :23:34.continuity of Scotland's membership of the European Union and that
:23:35. > :23:47.position has now been explained and debated and discussed and reinforced
:23:48. > :23:50.by comments made by experts. We are talking about the president of the
:23:51. > :23:55.European commission and we have spoken to him since he gave that
:23:56. > :23:59.interview on the BBC this morning, it was an intervention that he made
:24:00. > :24:07.that he wanted to lay out that Scotland should be in no doubt that
:24:08. > :24:15.if they vote for independence they will have to apply for European
:24:16. > :24:21.membership and they may not get it if it is vetoed by other members.
:24:22. > :24:26.What he didn't say is that no state of the European Union have indicated
:24:27. > :24:32.they would veto Scottish membership. The Spanish foreign
:24:33. > :24:37.minister has. They have said that if there is an agreed process within
:24:38. > :24:40.the UK that Scotland becomes an independent country, then Spain has
:24:41. > :24:44.got nothing to say about the issue. That indicates to me clearly that
:24:45. > :24:50.the Spanish government will have no stance to take on the Scottish
:24:51. > :24:54.membership of the European Union because it is important that
:24:55. > :24:58.Scotland is already part of the European Union, our laws are
:24:59. > :25:02.compatible with the European Union and we play our part. The only
:25:03. > :25:12.threat to Scotland's participation in the European Union is the
:25:13. > :25:19.potential in/out referendum that David Cameron wants to have in 2017.
:25:20. > :25:24.It has not been a great week for you, has it? Everything you seem to
:25:25. > :25:30.want, the monetary union, that has been blown out of the water by the
:25:31. > :25:36.Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel Barroso has said you will have to
:25:37. > :25:41.reapply to the European Union, it has not been a good week. You will
:25:42. > :25:47.follow the debate closely, and the Sunday newspapers are full about the
:25:48. > :25:54.backlash taking place within Scotland at the bullying remarks of
:25:55. > :26:00.the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well
:26:01. > :26:06.now? He is making an indirect comparison between Scotland and
:26:07. > :26:12.Kosovo. If you vote for independence and you do have two apply again to
:26:13. > :26:18.join, if you do get in it solves your currency problem because you
:26:19. > :26:22.will have to accept the euro. We have set out an option on the
:26:23. > :26:32.currency arrangements which would be to establish the currency union. You
:26:33. > :26:37.would have to adopt the euro. That's not rate because you have to be part
:26:38. > :26:41.of the exchange-rate mechanism for two years before you can apply for
:26:42. > :26:46.membership and an independent Scotland has no intention of signing
:26:47. > :26:51.up to the exchange rate mechanism or the single currency. We are
:26:52. > :26:56.concentrating on setting out our arguments for maintaining the pound
:26:57. > :27:03.sterling, which is in the interests of Scotland and the UK. Thank you
:27:04. > :27:07.for joining us this morning. This week's least surprising news
:27:08. > :27:09.was that Labour won the safe seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East in a
:27:10. > :27:13.by-election, following the death of the MP Paul Goggins. With the result
:27:14. > :27:16.so predictable, all eyes were on whether this would be the sixth time
:27:17. > :27:19.this parliament that UKIP would come second. And whether they'd chip away
:27:20. > :27:23.at Labour's vote, not just the Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed
:27:24. > :27:33.up all night to find out what it all meant. Forget the hype. Forget the
:27:34. > :27:45.theorising. And yes - everyone has a theory. UKIP are learning from us.
:27:46. > :27:50.What have they picked up from you? To be silly. Thanks to this week's
:27:51. > :27:53.by-election we've got some hard evidence in paper form that helps
:27:54. > :28:00.answer the question: How are UKIP doing? Turns out the answer is well,
:28:01. > :28:10.but not well enough to beat Labour. I'm therefore claim -- declare that
:28:11. > :28:12.Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have come second and increased their
:28:13. > :28:15.share of the vote quite significantly. But their performance
:28:16. > :28:18.isn't as good as their performances in some of the other by-elections
:28:19. > :28:27.this parliament. Just don't suggest to them that their bandwagon has
:28:28. > :28:34.ground to a halt. A week ago you'd told me you were going to win, what
:28:35. > :28:42.happened? No, I didn't, I said I wanted to win. My mistake. How are
:28:43. > :28:47.you feeling? It is a Labour stronghold, we always knew it was
:28:48. > :28:52.going to be a fight. Labour were running scared of letting us present
:28:53. > :28:56.our arguments. UKIP's campaign in Wythenshawe didn't point to the
:28:57. > :28:58.right but to the left, with leaflets that branded Labour as a party of
:28:59. > :29:02.millionaires who didn't care about the working class. It wasn't a
:29:03. > :29:08.winning strategy but it did help them beat the Tories who focused on
:29:09. > :29:10.dog mess and potholes instead. Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford
:29:11. > :29:16.from Manchester Uni thinks they could be on the right track. He's
:29:17. > :29:19.analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP voters for a new book, which could
:29:20. > :29:31.confound the received wisdom about the party. The common media image of
:29:32. > :29:40.the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy faced golf club and -- member from
:29:41. > :29:44.the south-east of the UK and many UKIP activists do resemble that
:29:45. > :29:49.stereotype to some extent, they do pick up a lot of activists from the
:29:50. > :29:54.Conservative party, but UKIP voters are older, more working class, more
:29:55. > :29:59.likely to live in Northern, urban areas, and they are much more
:30:00. > :30:02.anti-system than anti-EU. And they're precisely the voters that
:30:03. > :30:05.the Tory MP David Mowat needs if he's to hold on to his narrow
:30:06. > :30:19.majority in the constituency just down the road. Do you have a UKIP
:30:20. > :30:22.strategy in your seat? Our UKIP strategy is to point out that if
:30:23. > :30:26.they want a referendum on if they want to be in the EU or not, there
:30:27. > :30:29.is one way to get it, for the Conservatives to form their next
:30:30. > :30:35.government and for me to be their MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy
:30:36. > :30:41.what they want? I'm not sure it will be accidental. People need to
:30:42. > :30:46.realise that if Ed Miliband is the Prime Minister, there will be no
:30:47. > :30:52.referendum on the EU and UKIP may have made their point but they would
:30:53. > :31:01.not have got their referendum. Over at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up
:31:02. > :31:05.time. Not helping, Nigel? I had major surgery on the 19th of
:31:06. > :31:09.November and I am still weak as a kitten. I can barely lift a pint
:31:10. > :31:14.with my right hand, it is as serious as that. The answer is, Carreon,
:31:15. > :31:17.chaps, you're all doing a very good job. There will be carrying on to
:31:18. > :31:22.the European elections in May, which will provide more evidence of if the
:31:23. > :31:28.UKIP and wagon is powering on or if it is just parked. -- bandwagon.
:31:29. > :31:32.With me now is the Conservative MEP Vicky fraud and UKIP director of
:31:33. > :31:36.medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He will also be a candidate in the
:31:37. > :31:40.upcoming European elections. You came second in Manchester, but it
:31:41. > :31:47.was not a close second. -- Vicky Ford. There is nothing that is a
:31:48. > :31:53.game changer? I think it is very unusual for any insurgent party,
:31:54. > :31:58.like the liberals used to be, to actually win a safe seat of the
:31:59. > :32:06.opposition. Those shocks, going back to Walkington etc, it tended to be
:32:07. > :32:11.winning seats against an unpopular government. We did extraordinarily
:32:12. > :32:15.well in Wythenshawe. Labour compressed the campaign down to the
:32:16. > :32:17.shortest possible time and maxed out the postal vote. Whatever we think
:32:18. > :32:22.about Labour, they do have an efficient machine, lots of union
:32:23. > :32:28.activists signed a lot of people with a lot of know-how. It pushed
:32:29. > :32:33.you into third place and showed the increasing irrelevance of the Tories
:32:34. > :32:38.in the North? Tory minded voters in the North Sea more inclined to vote
:32:39. > :32:42.for UKIP than you? I think by-elections are by-elections. The
:32:43. > :32:47.same day, we took a seat from Labour in Birmingham. Well, that was a
:32:48. > :32:51.by-election as well, so we should discount that as well. You should
:32:52. > :32:55.learn from them, and we need to look forward to the elections in 2014.
:32:56. > :33:02.That is in May this year, when we have a chance to really grab this
:33:03. > :33:07.change in Europe, grab this change that we were talking about just now.
:33:08. > :33:09.You don't worry, particularly in the north, if people want to vote
:33:10. > :33:15.against Labour your supporters are drifting to UKIP? I think people
:33:16. > :33:19.vote UKIP in a European election and they have done that for many years.
:33:20. > :33:23.They vote that because they want change. The problem is, Patrick's
:33:24. > :33:28.party have had MEPs since 1999 and they cannot deliver that change.
:33:29. > :33:34.They can't because they don't have seats in Westminster. It was on that
:33:35. > :33:38.video, the only way we are going to get the change we want in Europe is
:33:39. > :33:45.to have that referendum and have the renegotiation, and that means vote
:33:46. > :33:50.Tory. What do you say to that? Let's get real, the Conservative Party has
:33:51. > :33:56.not won a Parliamentary majority in 22 years. But the only way you will
:33:57. > :34:00.get a referendum, if that is what motivates you, and with UKIP it is,
:34:01. > :34:03.the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if
:34:04. > :34:06.there is a majority Conservative government at the next election. And
:34:07. > :34:12.you could well stop that from happening? I don't accept that. I
:34:13. > :34:15.believe, just as we forced David Cameron and into a referendum pledge
:34:16. > :34:19.he explicitly ruled out making before through our success, and I
:34:20. > :34:22.was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not
:34:23. > :34:25.be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our
:34:26. > :34:30.electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the
:34:31. > :34:34.European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against
:34:35. > :34:37.his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in
:34:38. > :34:43.the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had
:34:44. > :34:49.the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.
:34:50. > :34:53.The only way you are going to get a renegotiation, a change in our
:34:54. > :34:57.relationship with Europe and an in or out referendum is to have a
:34:58. > :34:59.Conservative Government. Please, UKIP, stop pretending that you can
:35:00. > :35:07.deliver, because you don't deliver and you don't... We have delivered,
:35:08. > :35:13.we forced David Cameron to give a pledge for a referendum he didn't
:35:14. > :35:15.want to make. We will know if you are right about Ed Miliband or not,
:35:16. > :35:21.you will have to tell us going into the campaign. If you are wrong, what
:35:22. > :35:25.do you do then? There are still loads of reasons for people to vote
:35:26. > :35:31.UKIP. A referendum is one thing. David Cameron, and I asked him
:35:32. > :35:37.directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath
:35:38. > :35:40.of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed
:35:41. > :35:45.Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably
:35:46. > :35:49.maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has
:35:50. > :35:53.been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential
:35:54. > :35:59.for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those
:36:00. > :36:02.disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming
:36:03. > :36:08.towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We
:36:09. > :36:12.want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people
:36:13. > :36:15.who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.
:36:16. > :36:23.That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.
:36:24. > :36:30.UKIP MEPs do not turn up to defenders. If President Hollande is
:36:31. > :36:33.as good as his word and says there will be no substantial
:36:34. > :36:37.renegotiation, certainly no treaty change this side of 2017 when he is
:36:38. > :36:43.up for the election, what do you do then? He is a French Socialist Prime
:36:44. > :36:49.Minister, I don't expect him to agree. But you can't bring anything
:36:50. > :36:56.of substance back with these negotiations. Then people will vote
:36:57. > :37:02.to leave. The Prime Minister has been very clear that British public
:37:03. > :37:07.opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a
:37:08. > :37:12.renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what
:37:13. > :37:16.we get with the deal on the table in 2017. If the status quo was what we
:37:17. > :37:23.have today, I would vote to leave. But I want to renegotiate. We will
:37:24. > :37:27.have to move on. For those viewers lucky enough to live in the East of
:37:28. > :37:31.England, they will be seeing more of Patrick in a moment. You are
:37:32. > :37:35.watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be
:37:36. > :37:45.talking about, what else, the weather,
:37:46. > :37:50.Hello, and on the Sunday Politics Wales: I speak to one of the
:37:51. > :37:53.Conservative AMs sacked from the Shadow Cabinet in a row about tax
:37:54. > :37:59.powers. And just what will Wales do with
:38:00. > :38:01.those tax powers? We ask the Finance Minister.
:38:02. > :38:05.And plans to centralise hospital services in south Wales. Labour MP
:38:06. > :38:10.Chris Bryant says he's ready to fight.
:38:11. > :38:15.Well, he was on this programme last Sunday talking about his spat with
:38:16. > :38:17.the Welsh Secretary over tax powers. Andrew RT Davies, the assembly's
:38:18. > :38:22.opposition leader, has certainly had a busy week since then. On
:38:23. > :38:28.Wednesday, he sacked four shadow ministers who rebelled in a vote on
:38:29. > :38:32.tax devolution. By Friday there were reports that he had lost the support
:38:33. > :38:35.of senior Welsh Tories, but he was in a bullish mood this morning when
:38:36. > :38:43.I asked him about the briefings against him.
:38:44. > :38:47.I think it is highly regrettable that people are supposedly giving
:38:48. > :38:50.briefings out if that is the case. But we are seeing a source as an
:38:51. > :38:56.some of them have even been promoted to senior sources. What I know as a
:38:57. > :38:59.fact is that the 14 Conservative members in the National Assembly are
:39:00. > :39:05.committed to one thing and one thing only, and that is improving the
:39:06. > :39:09.lives of the people of Wales. Some of the more bizarre and outlandish
:39:10. > :39:12.remarks of being on probation and also being deselected, I can
:39:13. > :39:15.categorically say that none of that was spoken about at the Welsh border
:39:16. > :39:21.management conference call on Friday. You would understand that
:39:22. > :39:25.colleagues have of you and want to express that view. The view is most
:39:26. > :39:27.probably the same as mine. I am deeply disappointed we find
:39:28. > :39:31.ourselves in this situation and I will work with colleagues in the
:39:32. > :39:36.Assembly group and the wider party to make sure it is not party
:39:37. > :39:44.differences we are talking about but comment, Welsh Government, failures
:39:45. > :39:47.in Wales and the failure to deliver an economy that takes jobs and the
:39:48. > :39:50.Health Service that looks after people as well as an education
:39:51. > :39:55.system are tonnes of students for the 21st century. Those other
:39:56. > :39:58.priorities. Within the management board and the party, you have the
:39:59. > :40:03.backing to carry on as leader? Without a shadow of a doubt.
:40:04. > :40:07.One of those rebels is the Conservative AM for Monmouth, Nick
:40:08. > :40:14.Ramsay, who is here with me now. Welcome to the programme. You did
:40:15. > :40:15.vote against the party's whip. Shouldn't you have expected to be
:40:16. > :40:22.disciplined? Energy I voted for the position of the UK
:40:23. > :40:27.Government, the position of David Cameron as the Prime Minister. This
:40:28. > :40:30.was discussed in advance. There were many concerns by a number of my
:40:31. > :40:35.colleagues about the position the group was proposing to take. We made
:40:36. > :40:40.our views known and ultimately we were not going to vote against David
:40:41. > :40:45.Cameron's UK Government policy. Headed the group get into this
:40:46. > :40:49.position where you were being asked to vote against David Cameron's
:40:50. > :40:55.policy? You might well ask and lessons need to be learned. It was
:40:56. > :40:59.obvious this was going to cause us a problem and for anyone to say there
:41:00. > :41:02.are not problems in the Conservative group at the moment, there clearly
:41:03. > :41:06.are. We have to be upfront about those. They can be dealt with but we
:41:07. > :41:12.have got to accept the Abbey. We have to move on from there. Those
:41:13. > :41:15.problems were always going to develop. You cannot ask people to
:41:16. > :41:20.vote against the principles. I could not fought for a Plaid Cymru
:41:21. > :41:28.amendment that would go against my own UK party policy. Was sure
:41:29. > :41:32.sacking and the other three dismissals and overreaction? It is a
:41:33. > :41:37.matter for him in the Shadow Cabinet there are different ways to deal
:41:38. > :41:40.with things. I have been loyal to Andrew for two and a half years
:41:41. > :41:44.since he became leader. I did not resign from the Shadow Cabinet. He
:41:45. > :41:47.decided my views were incompatible with his on this. You would have to
:41:48. > :41:53.ask him whether it was an overreaction or not. It caused a lot
:41:54. > :41:59.of surprise, and being in Brussels, on a train and finding that out was
:42:00. > :42:04.a surprise. We need to look closely at the way the Welsh group operates.
:42:05. > :42:08.You say there are problems of the group. What do you mean? There are
:42:09. > :42:15.clearly problems if for members of the Shadow Cabinet are told they are
:42:16. > :42:18.losing their jobs because they are backing the Conservative Party line.
:42:19. > :42:25.Do you mean a lack of faith in Andrew RT Davies? Now, this is not
:42:26. > :42:30.about his leadership. I have been loyal to him for the last couple of
:42:31. > :42:33.years and I did not resign. I was put in his position as the other
:42:34. > :42:37.members of the group were. This is about the members of my group being
:42:38. > :42:40.able to support the UK Government policy and not being asked to
:42:41. > :42:44.support a troublemaking Plaid Cymru amendment if they so wish. I'm sorry
:42:45. > :42:49.Andrew has taken this course of action. Do you have any intention of
:42:50. > :42:57.challenging him for the leadership? Run against him in 2011. No, it is
:42:58. > :43:00.not about this. I have been loyal to Andrew but I am loyal to David
:43:01. > :43:05.Cameron and the UK Conservative Party and the Conservative Party
:43:06. > :43:07.family as a whole. I think we need to address these problems and Andrew
:43:08. > :43:12.needs to think very carefully about how these issues can be addressed.
:43:13. > :43:17.We cannot go on and pretend nothing has happened. It has. This can be
:43:18. > :43:22.sorted out. There needs to be discussions about that. There is
:43:23. > :43:26.talk of other Shadow Cabinet ministers potentially leaving the
:43:27. > :43:29.Shadow Cabinet. Is there any truth in that? I have no idea. You would
:43:30. > :43:34.have to ask other members of the Shadow Cabinet. I know my position
:43:35. > :43:38.and the position of those members who were sacked. There has been
:43:39. > :43:42.discussion about this since then. It is a shame that was not more
:43:43. > :43:46.discussion before that. As I say, we need to get to grips with this and
:43:47. > :43:50.make sure members of my group are not put in this position in future.
:43:51. > :43:57.What's next? How do you move forward? There was a rift created
:43:58. > :44:00.when members of the Shadow Cabinet were sat on a point of principle
:44:01. > :44:05.that they clearly had very little option to do something else. Andrew
:44:06. > :44:08.needs to think very carefully about how we deal with this situation. I
:44:09. > :44:13.am the chairman of the group. My daughter is open to work out how we
:44:14. > :44:19.can sort this out. -- my door is open. We look to Andrew to see what
:44:20. > :44:26.he proposes. You think his leadership has been weakened by love
:44:27. > :44:32.this? -- all of this? It is very sad that this has happened but I think
:44:33. > :44:36.it is salvageable. As I say, there is an issue here and it is a
:44:37. > :44:39.problem. You cannot put members of the Welsh Conservative Party in a
:44:40. > :44:43.position where they are asked to vote against something which is
:44:44. > :44:49.overall Conservative policy. This has caused problems, it can be dealt
:44:50. > :44:55.with and I'm sure it will be. Is Downing Street watching all of this?
:44:56. > :45:00.I think Downing Street watch all aspects of the party across the
:45:01. > :45:03.country. The Prime Minister will be aware of everything that is going
:45:04. > :45:07.on. I am sure he is looking for us to sort it out. These sorts of
:45:08. > :45:11.things do happen. All parties have differences and there are far bigger
:45:12. > :45:15.differences in a Labour Party than there are my party about this. You
:45:16. > :45:18.mentioned you're still the chairman of the Conservative group in the
:45:19. > :45:23.Assembly. Your chair chairman of the committee. That is why you are in
:45:24. > :45:33.Brussels. And you going to lose those two positions but you might
:45:34. > :45:37.could there be more strife ahead? I think we should move on in unity and
:45:38. > :45:40.make sure that these problems do not happen in the future. I am the
:45:41. > :45:47.chairman of the Conservative group the expected to remain the chairman?
:45:48. > :45:53.-- do you expect to remain the chairman? I stand up for those who
:45:54. > :45:57.want to have a point of principle to support the UK Government policy.
:45:58. > :46:04.That is non-devolved policy. All the members of Parliament in the
:46:05. > :46:07.Conservative Party would agree that David Cameron has a right to bring
:46:08. > :46:12.forward his proposals in the Draft Wales Bill concerning income tax. I
:46:13. > :46:20.knew that those had to be supported. As the chairman of the group, Andrew
:46:21. > :46:25.RT Davies says this. This is not me imposing a party diktats, this is a
:46:26. > :46:32.decision by the group to vote in the way they did. How do you respond?
:46:33. > :46:37.Andrew is a leader of the group that he'll provide should Egypt
:46:38. > :46:42.direction, I am sure. -- strategic direction. Some members could not
:46:43. > :46:45.support this and as a result accommodation should be made. Andrew
:46:46. > :46:50.Cooper rid of action which was to dismiss Shadow Cabinet members. It
:46:51. > :46:55.is for him to decide if that was appropriate. I keep coming back to
:46:56. > :46:58.it and it is a very important point. You cannot ask people in the Welsh
:46:59. > :47:05.Conservative group to have to choose between the Welsh Conservative group
:47:06. > :47:12.and the party. My loyalty, it always has been. I am a loyal person to the
:47:13. > :47:14.party and the Assembly as well. I understand the concerns of those
:47:15. > :47:21.members who felt in an impossible position. Mister Davies was asked
:47:22. > :47:24.how much of this was down to the relationship between him and David
:47:25. > :47:27.Jones. We hear a lot of talk that they do not get along. You hear a
:47:28. > :47:35.lot of talk about everything in politics. What truly matters is the
:47:36. > :47:40.fundamentals here. David Jones Secretary of State responsible for
:47:41. > :47:43.overall policy, non-devolved policy. Andrew has an important role as
:47:44. > :47:48.well. The two of them should get on and I am sure they do. This is all
:47:49. > :47:51.rumours that go around. I am sure the current problems we are
:47:52. > :47:55.experiencing can be sorted out. Thank you very much.
:47:56. > :47:58.Let's stay with tax. I've been speaking to the Finance Minister,
:47:59. > :48:06.Jane Hutt, about what the Welsh Government will do once it gets
:48:07. > :48:09.tax-raising powers. Don't assume that tax collecting
:48:10. > :48:14.will simply switch from Whitehall to Wales. What is really happening is
:48:15. > :48:19.that some taxes, including stamp duty, will be switched off by the UK
:48:20. > :48:24.Treasury. The Welsh Government will switch them on again. When they do,
:48:25. > :48:30.they might see things differently. Take stamp duty. The Conservatives
:48:31. > :48:34.would scrap the tax on homes under ?250,000. The Welsh Treasury, being
:48:35. > :48:39.treated in Cardiff, might go another route. What about a whole new set of
:48:40. > :48:44.rates and a whole new way of collecting revenue? It used to be
:48:45. > :48:51.looked at very closely and will get all the bands of stamp duty to have
:48:52. > :48:58.a fairer system. What does the First Minister have in mind? I asked his
:48:59. > :49:01.Finance Minister, Jane Hutt. It has been about powers for the purpose to
:49:02. > :49:09.get these taxis devolved to Wales to make the model relevant. -- to make
:49:10. > :49:13.them more relevant. I have set up a tax policy advisory group to look at
:49:14. > :49:17.fairness and simplicity and supporting jobs and growth.
:49:18. > :49:25.Articulate, if you look at stamp duty, land tax. People will want to
:49:26. > :49:30.know if the Government will put up taxes or not. You want these powers,
:49:31. > :49:37.when you going to come up with a policy? Very early days. We are
:49:38. > :49:46.looking forward to having a draft bill for pre-consultation. We are
:49:47. > :49:49.making all the preparations for legislation that will come through.
:49:50. > :49:54.We hope that is before the next general election. The work we are
:49:55. > :49:59.having to do now is to enable us to prepare to have these taxis devolved
:50:00. > :50:03.to Wales but to have them with the tax policy which will sit Wales. If
:50:04. > :50:09.you look at what is coming over, we're going to have stamp duty, land
:50:10. > :50:14.tax and landfill tax. When those taxes are transferred to Wales, we
:50:15. > :50:23.have the opportunity to have new policy and legislation, make
:50:24. > :50:29.we have had consultation is not just with house-builders, but those who
:50:30. > :50:35.see a great housing need and opportunity. It is too early to talk
:50:36. > :50:41.about rates in terms of taxes. It is about the policies we can do, for
:50:42. > :50:47.example, to get rid of a very crude slab of structure at the moment. Is
:50:48. > :50:51.that something you're going to do so that when you pay stamp duty on a
:50:52. > :50:58.new house, the amount you pay is graded instead of these cliffs in
:50:59. > :51:02.the taxes? Is that what you will do? We're very interested in looking at
:51:03. > :51:07.that. When we had consultation is last year, we had consultations with
:51:08. > :51:11.house-builders and those in the housing sector about what we could
:51:12. > :51:17.do if we got stamp duty and land tax devolved. They said we need to
:51:18. > :51:24.reform it. This slab is very artificial because it means that,
:51:25. > :51:30.you know, up to 175,000... The 1% cliffs which then goes up to 2%, 3%
:51:31. > :51:34.and onwards at each slab, it does mean that what happens is that as a
:51:35. > :51:39.bunching an end that sum of money once you have to pay the tax. It is
:51:40. > :51:46.very artificial. It will take a very long time. There will be legislation
:51:47. > :51:49.in Westminster and here. When do you predict that people will start
:51:50. > :51:55.paying tax to the Welsh Government? Give me a date. Probably not until
:51:56. > :51:59.2018. That might sound a long time ahead. Let's get the bill through
:52:00. > :52:07.and let's get the legislation through. Let's get this new Wales
:52:08. > :52:16.act in 2015 and then we can start. We got the election 2016. -- we have
:52:17. > :52:19.got. We have got to collect this tax, manage this tax and be very
:52:20. > :52:26.clear about what the policy will be. As I said at the starting point,
:52:27. > :52:30.and this is what Silke said, this is about powers for purpose. It is
:52:31. > :52:35.about enabling us to be responsible to make sure we have the right tax
:52:36. > :52:39.policies for revenues in Wales. You also said at the start that this
:52:40. > :52:42.package on offer in the Draft Wales Bill is a good deal for Wales.
:52:43. > :52:47.Meanwhile, your colleagues are Shadow Welsh Secretary is talking
:52:48. > :52:52.about tax competition across the UK. What is the position here? Is tax
:52:53. > :52:59.competition something you're worried about? We were signed up to this
:53:00. > :53:08.from the start. The cross-party group also said that the Hall of
:53:09. > :53:28.Silk in its entirety was something we signed up to. We would
:53:29. > :53:56.we want those leave us as a responsible Welsh Government. Should
:53:57. > :54:02.people look forward to paying more or less tax? First of all we need to
:54:03. > :54:05.look at getting those levers. We need to look at the
:54:06. > :54:10.responsibilities. I am the Finance Minister and this is about revenues.
:54:11. > :54:15.Once income from those taxes is transferred to Wales, it will be a
:54:16. > :54:24.switch from the Treasury and the switch on here. People know that we
:54:25. > :54:28.will be fair about that and we will be responsible. That is why we have
:54:29. > :54:35.experts helping us. There will be a full consultation and we want to
:54:36. > :54:38.ensure that taxes like those around property transactions, for homes and
:54:39. > :54:44.non-domestic property, is theatre and more progressive and meets the
:54:45. > :54:47.needs of the people in Wales. With the possible recent exception
:54:48. > :54:52.of tax, no topic looms large over Welsh politics like the NHS. A plan
:54:53. > :54:59.to centralise some key hospital services in south Wales faces an
:55:00. > :55:03.uncertain future. The NHS as a blueprint, but one of
:55:04. > :55:10.the health boards involved refuses to accept all the changes. The
:55:11. > :55:12.Health Board rejects plans for accident and emergency and
:55:13. > :55:18.specialist care for mothers, newborn babies and children. It stands to
:55:19. > :55:22.lose services from the local hospital for people in the Rhondda.
:55:23. > :55:30.Labour MP Chris Bryant gave his reaction. I am not happy. One of the
:55:31. > :55:34.problems was that they were making an assumption that people from the
:55:35. > :55:41.Rhondda and elsewhere in the valleys would go to Bridgend on Murtha if
:55:42. > :55:50.services were not available at the Royal got more in. That is a big
:55:51. > :55:56.mistake. It is an irony at the very moment they were deciding these
:55:57. > :55:59.things on Thursday, the road was closed because of the snow and
:56:00. > :56:03.people could not have got to the other two hospitals from the
:56:04. > :56:06.Rhondda. Everybody will go to Cardiff. I do not think they have
:56:07. > :56:09.factored into the equation is properly the effect that will have
:56:10. > :56:15.an Cardiff, which is already at capacity. I have a real worry that
:56:16. > :56:18.these proposals are not correct for Cardiff, let alone the people of the
:56:19. > :56:23.Rhondda. That is why I will fight against them. That is a compromise
:56:24. > :56:27.option out there know that will give a measure of protection to the
:56:28. > :56:32.services at your local hospital, the Royal Glamorgan. Will you be pushing
:56:33. > :56:35.for that doesn't not go far enough? I am delighted that one of the
:56:36. > :56:39.things that programme says is that there needs to be an emphasis on
:56:40. > :56:41.acute services in particular for the elderly, because we have a lot of
:56:42. > :56:44.elderly people in the Rhondda. I am delighted that service will improve
:56:45. > :56:50.and they will improve paediatric support. I really do worry in
:56:51. > :56:55.particular about people who will not be taken by an Ann Jones to hospital
:56:56. > :57:00.and that all of those people will go straight down to Cardiff. -- by an
:57:01. > :57:06.ambulance. The already problems in Cardiff with ambulances queueing up
:57:07. > :57:11.to park and the services in the hospital. I worry about that. It is
:57:12. > :57:16.great that the local Health Board have come up with an alternative
:57:17. > :57:23.solution, which I think will watch mock -- will work much better. I
:57:24. > :57:27.want to see that adopted. The Rhondda MP Chris Bryant.
:57:28. > :57:38.Joining me in the studio is our political editor Nick Servini. Let's
:57:39. > :57:45.just Re-the Conservatives Story. It Is Worth Having A Reminder That It
:57:46. > :57:49.Is About The Form Of Income Tax That Is Is In The Process Of Being
:57:50. > :57:54.Devolved. The Welsh Covered In Future will not be able to isolate
:57:55. > :58:00.or target particular bands. Any increase up or down has to be
:58:01. > :58:05.mirrored in tandem at first 20p and 40p. Most Assembly Members believe
:58:06. > :58:10.it is too restrictive and will not be used. One of those who believe
:58:11. > :58:20.that as a leader of the Welsh coal, Conservatives, Andrew RT Davies. The
:58:21. > :58:22.lockstep model is introduced by the Conservative lead College in
:58:23. > :58:26.Government. With him being against it, he is going against the policy
:58:27. > :58:30.of David Cameron and the Welsh Secretary David Jones. What we found
:58:31. > :58:35.out this week is that he has had to sack for assembling for supporting
:58:36. > :58:43.the Prime Minister. -- for assembling. One of those Assembly
:58:44. > :58:46.Members, you got an idea from where he was coming from a tasty was not
:58:47. > :58:53.prepared to vote against the party because he supported the lockstep
:58:54. > :58:57.model. He admitted there was a problem within the group at the
:58:58. > :59:02.Assembly but something that could be overcome. One that element to all of
:59:03. > :59:08.this is he has had to sack for Assembly Members of an issue that is
:59:09. > :59:21.very technical. With all due respect to those who have been fired, the
:59:22. > :59:25.views had to dominate discussions intimidated the Mac added dinner
:59:26. > :59:34.tables. -- Arent the dinner tables this Sunday. Andrew RT Davies has
:59:35. > :59:37.tried to stamp his authority. It was interesting and a radio interview
:59:38. > :59:40.that he gave this morning talking about anonymous briefings over a
:59:41. > :59:46.period of two and a half years since he has become leader. Central to all
:59:47. > :59:50.of this is a relationship with the Welsh Secretary, David Jones. It has
:59:51. > :00:00.been a difficult relationship. They disagreed over the income tax model.
:00:01. > :00:03.Davis talk about the debate around this scrapping of the Welsh office.
:00:04. > :00:09.That relationship will need to improve. Clearly it is about him try
:00:10. > :00:16.to stamp his authority on the party. Can he tough it out? All eyes will
:00:17. > :00:24.be on the Assembly group. Various sources have told BBC where he did
:00:25. > :00:30.not have a great support the. Andrew RT Davies says the four rebels
:00:31. > :00:34.defied the whip so he had no option to sack them. All eyes will be on
:00:35. > :00:40.whether he can retain the support of the Assembly group.
:00:41. > :00:48.direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,
:00:49. > :00:52.back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking
:00:53. > :00:55.about the weather. What could be more British? It has been
:00:56. > :00:58.practically the only topic of conversation for the past few
:00:59. > :01:03.weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,
:01:04. > :01:09.between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.
:01:10. > :01:14.That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the
:01:15. > :01:23.author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line
:01:24. > :01:29.or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was
:01:30. > :01:33.Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.
:01:34. > :01:39.UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to
:01:40. > :01:42.their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very
:01:43. > :01:45.fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband
:01:46. > :01:49.to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government
:01:50. > :01:53.failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual
:01:54. > :01:57.argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate
:01:58. > :02:01.change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't
:02:02. > :02:06.think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly
:02:07. > :02:09.because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The
:02:10. > :02:14.polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm
:02:15. > :02:18.a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not
:02:19. > :02:23.sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts
:02:24. > :02:27.David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those
:02:28. > :02:32.huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he
:02:33. > :02:37.has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate
:02:38. > :02:42.change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in
:02:43. > :02:46.2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and
:02:47. > :02:49.pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything.
:02:50. > :02:54.This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,
:02:55. > :02:58.they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government
:02:59. > :03:01.is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by
:03:02. > :03:06.the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to
:03:07. > :03:16.approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.
:03:17. > :03:21.What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down?
:03:22. > :03:24.Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,
:03:25. > :03:29.the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than
:03:30. > :03:32.green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed
:03:33. > :03:35.Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there
:03:36. > :03:41.isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems
:03:42. > :03:44.expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further
:03:45. > :03:49.south because of climate change. Or if it is, it is beyond our
:03:50. > :03:54.knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's
:03:55. > :03:59.saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science
:04:00. > :04:02.at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate
:04:03. > :04:06.change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had
:04:07. > :04:13.no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in
:04:14. > :04:16.the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual
:04:17. > :04:20.phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour
:04:21. > :04:24.Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a
:04:25. > :04:29.fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather
:04:30. > :04:31.than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,
:04:32. > :04:37.they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest
:04:38. > :04:43.summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that
:04:44. > :04:49.can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is
:04:50. > :04:52.difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that
:04:53. > :04:57.case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,
:04:58. > :05:03.what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the
:05:04. > :05:09.interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come
:05:10. > :05:13.out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we
:05:14. > :05:16.can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick
:05:17. > :05:21.O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.
:05:22. > :05:26.Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise
:05:27. > :05:32.reflection on that. They got 18%, 23% last year. The case he is making
:05:33. > :05:34.is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour
:05:35. > :05:40.voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP
:05:41. > :05:42.that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of
:05:43. > :05:47.social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their
:05:48. > :05:52.insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly
:05:53. > :05:56.well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to
:05:57. > :06:01.the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for
:06:02. > :06:06.Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a
:06:07. > :06:10.very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a
:06:11. > :06:15.commentator rather than head of communications for a political
:06:16. > :06:21.party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome
:06:22. > :06:25.priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop
:06:26. > :06:31.of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic
:06:32. > :06:37.safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be
:06:38. > :06:42.left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no
:06:43. > :06:50.longer exists. And it is a real, real, dramatic crisis. The second is
:06:51. > :06:54.that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,
:06:55. > :06:58.I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get
:06:59. > :07:04.it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two
:07:05. > :07:09.weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see
:07:10. > :07:12.how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there
:07:13. > :07:15.have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been
:07:16. > :07:19.scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country
:07:20. > :07:28.is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding
:07:29. > :07:33.pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the
:07:34. > :07:38.safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory
:07:39. > :07:43.reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?
:07:44. > :07:50.No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not
:07:51. > :07:53.up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think
:07:54. > :07:58.the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a
:07:59. > :08:01.full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had
:08:02. > :08:04.some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,
:08:05. > :08:09.instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of
:08:10. > :08:12.money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when
:08:13. > :08:16.members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,
:08:17. > :08:21.the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties,
:08:22. > :08:26.ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made
:08:27. > :08:29.deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a
:08:30. > :08:33.centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about
:08:34. > :08:37.this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is
:08:38. > :08:42.it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them
:08:43. > :08:46.look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You
:08:47. > :08:51.can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But
:08:52. > :08:55.the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate
:08:56. > :08:59.the poor and extend opportunity. One of the worst moments for the Tories
:09:00. > :09:03.was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact
:09:04. > :09:07.that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the
:09:08. > :09:12.largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.
:09:13. > :09:17.The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't
:09:18. > :09:20.vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of
:09:21. > :09:24.them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think
:09:25. > :09:29.it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than
:09:30. > :09:32.trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!
:09:33. > :09:39.The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I
:09:40. > :09:46.want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of
:09:47. > :09:54.February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 12th,
:09:55. > :09:58.there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an
:09:59. > :10:02.improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up
:10:03. > :10:07.one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden
:10:08. > :10:10.change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is
:10:11. > :10:16.completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his
:10:17. > :10:18.nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and
:10:19. > :10:24.depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.
:10:25. > :10:31.Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot
:10:32. > :10:36.shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women
:10:37. > :10:40.to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.
:10:41. > :10:44.Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less
:10:45. > :10:50.likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives
:10:51. > :10:56.and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential
:10:57. > :11:00.demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the
:11:01. > :11:04.public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they
:11:05. > :11:09.really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the
:11:10. > :11:13.following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just
:11:14. > :11:18.increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour
:11:19. > :11:23.seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told
:11:24. > :11:28.that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It
:11:29. > :11:34.looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of
:11:35. > :11:39.rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the
:11:40. > :11:42.faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,
:11:43. > :11:47.they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female
:11:48. > :11:52.face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is
:11:53. > :11:59.proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?
:12:00. > :12:03.Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a
:12:04. > :12:08.kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.
:12:09. > :12:14.The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As
:12:15. > :12:19.opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very
:12:20. > :12:21.male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in
:12:22. > :12:27.constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change
:12:28. > :12:39.things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they
:12:40. > :12:45.work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense
:12:46. > :12:51.advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will
:12:52. > :12:55.that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see
:12:56. > :13:04.how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going
:13:05. > :13:07.to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour
:13:08. > :13:13.Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think
:13:14. > :13:17.it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I
:13:18. > :13:25.would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?
:13:26. > :13:29.I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her
:13:30. > :13:37.stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week
:13:38. > :13:42.off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is
:13:43. > :13:45.Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.