:00:36. > :00:42.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely
:00:43. > :00:45.settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't
:00:46. > :00:48.all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election
:00:49. > :00:53.springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns
:00:54. > :00:57.out the big Budget surprise was a revolution in how we pay for old
:00:58. > :01:00.age. The Pensions Minister says he's relaxed if you want to spend it all
:01:01. > :01:07.on a Lamborghini. He'll join us later. And could the man with the
:01:08. > :01:08.maracas be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy
:01:09. > :01:17.Later in the programme: What would Mondays tells us about his unlikely
:01:18. > :01:18.Later in the programme: What would Scottish independence mean for
:01:19. > :01:22.In London, the Mafia man gets to Wales? We hear from the SNP.
:01:23. > :01:25.In London, the Mafia man gets to stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of
:01:26. > :01:38.making the European arrest warrant work better? -- Uxbridge. And who
:01:39. > :01:40.better to help guide you through all of that than three journalists, who
:01:41. > :01:44.dispense wisdom faster than Grant Shapps calls out the numbers in his
:01:45. > :01:46.local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and
:01:47. > :01:53.they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick
:01:54. > :01:59.Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:02:00. > :02:03.So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so
:02:04. > :02:07.many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of
:02:08. > :02:10.room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably
:02:11. > :02:14.a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3.5
:02:15. > :02:16.hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in
:02:17. > :02:47.three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their
:02:48. > :02:50.own, driven partly by tradition, like that photocall at 11 Downing
:02:51. > :02:53.Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and
:02:54. > :03:05.explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget
:03:06. > :03:09.Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of
:03:10. > :03:12.the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the
:03:13. > :03:16.clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one
:03:17. > :03:19.question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be
:03:20. > :03:21.something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily
:03:22. > :03:27.towards the statement and already commentators are hovering over what
:03:28. > :03:31.those potential surprises are. As Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to
:03:32. > :03:33.the Commons, where there is Prime Minister's questions and the
:03:34. > :03:40.Chancellor gets up and does his thing. Once he's on his feet and
:03:41. > :03:42.remembering there is still no copy of the details, the major measures
:03:43. > :03:47.are rapidly highlighted as they come and then put up on screen. A cap on
:03:48. > :03:54.Government welfare spending set for 2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax
:03:55. > :03:59.personal allowance raised to ?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which
:04:00. > :04:04.ticked boxes for some but was unlikely to make anyone a poster
:04:05. > :04:08.boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p, or the froth on the top. And changes to
:04:09. > :04:12.pensions allowing people to take their money out in one lump sum,
:04:13. > :04:20.rather than being forced to accept a fixed annual pay-out, or annuity.
:04:21. > :04:24.This is a Budget for the makers, the doers and the savers and I commend
:04:25. > :04:27.it to the House. Not everyone can focus on the Budget by listening to
:04:28. > :04:32.what the Chancellor says. We need to get a copy of the script. We do not
:04:33. > :04:38.get that till he sits down. I'm going to go into the House of
:04:39. > :04:42.Commons to get that right now. There will be a response on that and all
:04:43. > :04:46.the other things from Mr Miliband. The Chancellor spoke for nearly an
:04:47. > :04:49.hour but he did not mention one essential fact, the working people
:04:50. > :04:53.of Britain are worse off under the Tories. It is a tricky job answering
:04:54. > :04:57.the Budget at the best of times, though some, including Labour MPs,
:04:58. > :05:00.think it is better to mention the Budget when you do.
:05:01. > :05:07.Here we are. I am going to go. I am not the only journalist missing Ed
:05:08. > :05:10.Miliband's speech. Many others leave the Chamber as the Chancellor sits
:05:11. > :05:18.down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team.
:05:19. > :05:21.I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget
:05:22. > :05:24.than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and
:05:25. > :05:27.other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and
:05:28. > :05:36.detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC?
:05:37. > :05:39.Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days
:05:40. > :05:42.later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still
:05:43. > :05:43.seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of
:05:44. > :05:59.voters? How significant are these two poles
:06:00. > :06:09.this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party
:06:10. > :06:14.a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At
:06:15. > :06:17.first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where
:06:18. > :06:22.all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been
:06:23. > :06:27.ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and
:06:28. > :06:32.others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which
:06:33. > :06:38.is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the
:06:39. > :06:43.weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the
:06:44. > :06:47.Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the
:06:48. > :06:52.baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The
:06:53. > :06:56.Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next
:06:57. > :07:01.time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching
:07:02. > :07:06.them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing
:07:07. > :07:10.issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again
:07:11. > :07:14.Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were
:07:15. > :07:19.saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy
:07:20. > :07:24.issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is
:07:25. > :07:32.controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much
:07:33. > :07:37.into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the
:07:38. > :07:42.pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten
:07:43. > :07:46.years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office.
:07:47. > :07:51.Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There
:07:52. > :07:56.is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year
:07:57. > :07:59.before an election. What I underestimated was, how many
:08:00. > :08:05.frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people
:08:06. > :08:10.who are frustrated by low interest rates and tax rates on pension pots.
:08:11. > :08:15.This was an explicit gesture for them. That is what has paid off in
:08:16. > :08:21.the polls in the past few days. You spend all of your money on your
:08:22. > :08:26.wardrobe, is that right? The bingo poster was a kind of get out of jail
:08:27. > :08:30.card for Labour. It gave them something to zoom in on. Everyone
:08:31. > :08:36.beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman. We read in the daily
:08:37. > :08:42.Telegraph that the fingerprints of the Chancellor were all over this
:08:43. > :08:50.poster. The Chancellor signed off it -- off on it and so did Lynton
:08:51. > :08:57.Crosby. They referred to working class people as, they are. How did
:08:58. > :09:02.it get into the Telegraph? We can only presume but grant Shapps made
:09:03. > :09:06.it clear that it was not him. We had a time when Labour politicians, we
:09:07. > :09:10.saw from the response of Ed Miliband onwards, they were not quite sure
:09:11. > :09:15.how to react to this budget. A lot of detail had to be absorbed.
:09:16. > :09:26.Suddenly, here is something we can talk about. You can see the thinking
:09:27. > :09:29.behind the poster was very sensible. We are not Tory toffs, we are
:09:30. > :09:31.interested in helping people who do not come from our backgrounds. The
:09:32. > :09:38.wording was awful and played into every cliche. It was all his fault.
:09:39. > :09:47.It shows how unsophisticated he was. There were people from Tory HQ
:09:48. > :09:58.who agreed the budget. A month down the line will the budget look as
:09:59. > :10:01.good? Probably. Once people look at it, pensions are fiendishly
:10:02. > :10:05.conjugated. Once they look and see what it will do with people having
:10:06. > :10:09.to pay for their own care because they can now take capital at their
:10:10. > :10:14.pension, that will come as a shock to a lot of people with small
:10:15. > :10:22.savings. It all be gone on their care. The polling will be neck and
:10:23. > :10:25.neck all the way. In the past, George Osborne has been accused of
:10:26. > :10:28.using his Budgets to tinker at the margins or pull cheap tricks on his
:10:29. > :10:30.political opponents. Perish the thought. But the big surprise in
:10:31. > :10:33.this year's statement was a genuinely radical shake-up of the
:10:34. > :10:44.pensions system that will affect most people who've yet to retire. At
:10:45. > :10:48.the moment, everyone is saving money into a defined contribution pension,
:10:49. > :10:54.that is the type most common in the private sector. They can take 25% of
:10:55. > :10:58.the pot is a tax-free lump sum when they retire. The rest of the money,
:10:59. > :11:02.for most people, they are forced to buy an annuity, a form of insurance
:11:03. > :11:06.which provide a guaranteed monthly income until they die. Annuities
:11:07. > :11:15.have hardly been a bargain since interest rates were flat slashed
:11:16. > :11:20.following the financial crash. Even with a ?100,000 pension pot would
:11:21. > :11:24.only get an income of ?5,800 a year at current rates. From 2018,
:11:25. > :11:28.pensioners will not be forced to buy an annuity. They can do what they
:11:29. > :11:33.like with their money, even taking the entire pot as a lump some but
:11:34. > :11:45.paying tax on 75% of it. With an average pension pot closer
:11:46. > :11:52.to around ?30,000, pensioners would be more likely to buy a Skoda
:11:53. > :11:58.instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly retired people who take the cash are
:11:59. > :12:01.more likely to spend the money paying off their mortgage, helping a
:12:02. > :12:04.family member to buy a property or investing the money elsewhere. Well,
:12:05. > :12:07.earlier I spoke to the Pensions Minister. He's a Lib Dem called
:12:08. > :12:10.Steve Webb. I began by asking him if he still thought the reforms might
:12:11. > :12:18.lead to pensioners splurging all their savings on supercars. What
:12:19. > :12:22.this reform is about is treating people as adults. For far too long,
:12:23. > :12:25.we have said, we will make sure you save for your old age and then we
:12:26. > :12:31.will control each year how much is spent on what you spend it on. What
:12:32. > :12:35.we are saying is because we have formed -- reformed the state
:12:36. > :12:38.pension, we will be much more relaxed about what people do with
:12:39. > :12:42.their own money. The evidence is that people who have been frugal and
:12:43. > :12:47.saved hard for retirement do not generally blows a lot. They will
:12:48. > :12:51.spin it out. It is treating people as adults and giving them choices
:12:52. > :13:00.they should have had all along. It is a red herring, isn't it? The
:13:01. > :13:06.average pension pot is between 25000 and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an
:13:07. > :13:11.option, correct? I gather only about 5000 people a year retiring can buy
:13:12. > :13:14.a flashy Italian sports car. It might be about paying off a
:13:15. > :13:18.mortgage, paying off outstanding debts. Maybe spending more money
:13:19. > :13:22.earlier in retirement when they are fit and able and can enjoy it more.
:13:23. > :13:26.We will give people guidance. We will make sure when they retire,
:13:27. > :13:30.there is someone to have a conversation with talking through
:13:31. > :13:34.the implications of spending the money early and options of investing
:13:35. > :13:41.it. This will be a real step forward. Even if you have a much
:13:42. > :13:45.bigger pension pot, say half ?1 million, which is way bigger than
:13:46. > :13:50.the average, even then the marginal rates of tax will be a disincentive
:13:51. > :13:58.to take it all out at once. You will lose huge chunks of it at the 40%
:13:59. > :14:01.band and then the 45% band. The tax system gives you the incentive to
:14:02. > :14:06.spread it out if the tax threshold is a bit over 10000 and the state
:14:07. > :14:11.pension is a bit over 7000, the first 3000 you draw out in a given
:14:12. > :14:20.year is tax-free. The next band is at 20%. Spreading your money will
:14:21. > :14:23.mean you pay less tax. That is why, in general, people will not blow the
:14:24. > :14:28.lot up front. They will spread it out over their retirement. You have
:14:29. > :14:34.kept this policy quiet. Not even a hint. How did you test it? How did
:14:35. > :14:39.you make sure it would be robust? You did not do a consultation. I
:14:40. > :14:44.have been talking about freeing up the annuity market for a decade. The
:14:45. > :14:48.idea of giving people more choice. The government has relaxed rules
:14:49. > :14:52.over this Parliament. It was not a completely new idea. We know in
:14:53. > :15:00.places like Australia and America, people have these freedoms. We
:15:01. > :15:03.already have something to judge it by. We will spend the next year
:15:04. > :15:05.talking to people, working it through. There will be a three-month
:15:06. > :15:09.consultation. I want people to have choices about their own money. There
:15:10. > :15:14.is detail still to be worked out and we are in listening mode about how
:15:15. > :15:17.we implement it. When you announce something you cannot do widespread
:15:18. > :15:21.consultation, for the reasons I have given, you do run the risk of
:15:22. > :15:25.unforeseen consequences? Pension companies this morning are
:15:26. > :15:28.indicating, you, the government can write you are looking for ?25
:15:29. > :15:34.billion of infrastructure investment from us. You hold our shell below
:15:35. > :15:52.the water line. That may not happen. We spoke internally about the
:15:53. > :16:02.implications for instruction -- infrastructure. It seems to me there
:16:03. > :16:09.will still be long-term investments. Many people want to turn their whole
:16:10. > :16:12.pot into an income. I understand the insurance companies are lobbying,
:16:13. > :16:18.but I'm convinced there will still be plenty of money for investment
:16:19. > :16:23.and infrastructure. If the Chancellor's pro-savings measures
:16:24. > :16:29.work, that will generate more savings. With no requirement now to
:16:30. > :16:35.buy an annuity, surely it is the case that pension pots are another
:16:36. > :16:41.ordinary savings fund, so why should they continue to get favourable tax
:16:42. > :16:47.treatment? Bear in mind that a lot of the tax treatment of pensioners
:16:48. > :16:52.is tax deferred so most people pay tax at the standard rate. If they
:16:53. > :17:00.put money into a pension, they don't pay tax when they earn it, but they
:17:01. > :17:05.do at retirement. We do want, we will still have automatic enrolment
:17:06. > :17:10.into workplace pensions, we do want people to build up, because at age
:17:11. > :17:17.20 and 30 nobody thinks about retirement. It is still vital that
:17:18. > :17:23.people do reach retirement to have these new choices with a decent
:17:24. > :17:27.sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax breaks because they were supposed to
:17:28. > :17:32.provide an income in retirement, that is how it was structured, but
:17:33. > :17:39.that is no longer a requirement, surely that undermines the case that
:17:40. > :17:45.if they get tax breaks, other forms of savings should get tax breaks.
:17:46. > :17:58.Other forms do get tax breaks, of course. The return with ISAs is tax
:17:59. > :18:07.free. The point with pensions is that you are simply deferring your
:18:08. > :18:11.earnings. There is a bit when high tax rate payers get a kick when they
:18:12. > :18:16.are working and then retire on standard rate, so there is the issue
:18:17. > :18:21.of the top getting too many tax breaks, but the basic principle that
:18:22. > :18:28.you pay tax when you get the income seems right to me and isn't affected
:18:29. > :18:32.by these changes. You have announced save friendly measures, are we right
:18:33. > :18:38.to look at them as a consolation prize because savers have suffered
:18:39. > :18:43.from the Government's policy of keeping interest rates abnormally
:18:44. > :18:48.low? It is certainly the case that very low interest rates have been a
:18:49. > :18:52.huge boon to people of working age with mortgages, and people who have
:18:53. > :18:58.retired said they thought they could have got a better deal on their
:18:59. > :19:02.savings. I think there is a recognition that whilst we have done
:19:03. > :19:09.the right thing with pensioners on the state pension, we have brought
:19:10. > :19:19.in the triple lock, and many will bent on -- benefit from these
:19:20. > :19:23.changes. Why don't savers who are not pensioners get the same help?
:19:24. > :19:30.They have been hit by low interest rates as well. Those of working
:19:31. > :19:34.age, many of them say they have benefited from low interest rates
:19:35. > :19:43.was predominantly people in retirement have not had the benefit.
:19:44. > :19:51.Obviously people of working age will have benefited from the tax
:19:52. > :19:57.allowance so it is a myth to say the Budget was all about pensioners. And
:19:58. > :20:00.yet even when the Office for Budget Responsibility takes into account
:20:01. > :20:06.your new measures, it still shows that over the next five years
:20:07. > :20:13.households will save less and less, indeed the savings ratio falls by
:20:14. > :20:17.50%. You haven't done enough. One of the things we know is that the
:20:18. > :20:22.economy is picking up strongly, and as we have more confidence about the
:20:23. > :20:25.future they will be more willing to consume now, so without these
:20:26. > :20:31.measures it may be that the saving rate would have fallen further. We
:20:32. > :20:37.want people to save and spend, it is about getting the right balance. As
:20:38. > :20:42.the economy picks up, people will want to spend more of their money
:20:43. > :20:47.and it is about getting the balance right. You make the point that if
:20:48. > :20:51.people are little profligate with their private pensions, they will
:20:52. > :20:56.have the state pension to fall back on and it will be higher than it has
:20:57. > :21:01.been, but it is also the case that in these circumstances they will
:21:02. > :21:06.still be entitled to housing benefit and even to perhaps some council tax
:21:07. > :21:13.benefit as well. Do you know by how much this could put the welfare bill
:21:14. > :21:17.up? We think the impact will be relatively modest because the sort
:21:18. > :21:22.of people who save for a pension and make sacrifices while they are at
:21:23. > :21:29.work are not the sort of people who get to 65 and decide to blow the lot
:21:30. > :21:32.for the great privilege of receiving council tax benefit or housing
:21:33. > :21:43.benefit. There will be people on the margins and
:21:44. > :21:44.benefit. There will be people on the who retire with some capital want to
:21:45. > :21:51.put some money away for their funeral. People like to save even
:21:52. > :21:57.into retirement so the myth of the spendthrift pensioner I don't
:21:58. > :22:03.believe. I think this has been rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a
:22:04. > :22:18.Lamborghini yourself? If you turned the camera around you would see my
:22:19. > :22:21.2-door Corsa! What's your favourite thing about an
:22:22. > :22:24.election? Could it be the candidates ringing on your door while you're
:22:25. > :22:27.having dinner? The leaflets piling up on your doormat? Or the endless
:22:28. > :22:30.adverts aimed at hardworking families? Well, if you thought that
:22:31. > :22:33.was bad enough, then you might want to consider going overseas for the
:22:34. > :22:36.2015 election because the parties are going to be aiming their message
:22:37. > :22:42.at you like never before. Adam's been to Worcester to find out more.
:22:43. > :22:47.One of the most famous political figures in history lived here, she
:22:48. > :22:52.is called Worcester woman. She was in her 30s, working class with a
:22:53. > :22:56.couple of kids, aspirational yet worried about quality of life. But
:22:57. > :23:00.she wasn't a real person, she was a label for the kind of voter new
:23:01. > :23:07.Labour were trying to reach and she was later joined by Mondeo man and
:23:08. > :23:12.several others. Doesn't that all seem a bit 90s? The technique,
:23:13. > :23:19.called segmentation, was used by George Bush in 2004. Then refined by
:23:20. > :23:25.Barack Obama. Rather than focusing on crude measures like cars and
:23:26. > :23:28.hometowns, they delved into the minds of voters. It is not just
:23:29. > :23:34.women, not just people who live in cities, but if you start to put
:23:35. > :23:39.together these groups of people you can even in an anecdote or way
:23:40. > :23:48.imagine who they are, what types of language and imagery might relate to
:23:49. > :23:52.them. We have been given access to a new polling model being used here by
:23:53. > :23:59.this firm, which is pretty close to the one we are told is being used by
:24:00. > :24:04.the Tories. It carves the country into six personality types, and we
:24:05. > :24:10.are trying it out on Worcester woman and wast of man. We are using an
:24:11. > :24:17.online quiz to work out who is in which segment. Meet new monk,
:24:18. > :24:25.Susie. She feels well represented. I know the Budget and the increases to
:24:26. > :24:30.childcare, I think at the moment I am fairly represented. This puts her
:24:31. > :24:35.in the category of optimistic contentment, people who feel they
:24:36. > :24:43.are doing OK. Terry, on the other hand, isn't happy about Britain
:24:44. > :24:51.today. Health and safety and all that! I hardly recognise the country
:24:52. > :24:59.a living in any more? Yes. Are you ready for the result? He is Mr
:25:00. > :25:03.comfortable nostalgia, they tend to favour the Tories and UKIP. They
:25:04. > :25:09.dislike the cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the
:25:10. > :25:17.worst. That sums me up. Tony is worried as well but feels much less
:25:18. > :25:25.secure. I look forward to the future with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety.
:25:26. > :25:34.Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist. His category is... You feel a bit
:25:35. > :25:41.insecure, you think the Government could probably help you more? Yes.
:25:42. > :25:48.Labour picks up a lot of these voters. This man is being asked to
:25:49. > :25:56.do more and more at work, but he is getting less and less. I am getting
:25:57. > :26:01.more towards the despair side. Things are getting tougher,
:26:02. > :26:07.generally? It puts him into the segment called long-term despair,
:26:08. > :26:16.people who feel left out. Finally, this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am
:26:17. > :26:24.a bit of an idealist. Her idealism makes her a cosmopolitan critic. I
:26:25. > :26:28.am a liberal person. Apparently a lot of the media fit into this
:26:29. > :26:32.category as well. There is one group of voters we have not come across,
:26:33. > :26:37.people who show calm persistence. They hope things will get better but
:26:38. > :26:43.don't expect them to. They are coping, rather than comfortable.
:26:44. > :26:47.Presumably they are all out of work. Which group are you win? You can
:26:48. > :26:52.take the poll on the BBC website, and in the coming weeks we will be
:26:53. > :27:00.doing our own polling using the six segments to see of the politicians
:27:01. > :27:04.really have worked out how we think. And as Adam said, if you want to try
:27:05. > :27:06.the survey for yourself, you can go to the BBC website and click on the
:27:07. > :27:15.link. And we're joined now by the
:27:16. > :27:22.pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to Sunday Politics. We have had
:27:23. > :27:29.Worcester woman, Worcester man, is this any different? It is a
:27:30. > :27:42.recognition that or politician -- all politics these days is like
:27:43. > :27:49.this. It enables them to cut them more finally. You think all politics
:27:50. > :27:54.is coalition politics, you think they have to put together these
:27:55. > :28:01.groups of people, not that the Lib Dems will always be in power? No,
:28:02. > :28:07.and if you listen to the coverage these days you might think it is
:28:08. > :28:11.about grumpy old men on the one hand with Guardian readers on the other.
:28:12. > :28:15.It is far more complicated than that, there is a lot of churning
:28:16. > :28:23.going on underneath which is driven by people's value systems. A lot of
:28:24. > :28:27.this has been pioneered in the United States, very sophisticated on
:28:28. > :28:32.their election techniques, and in Britain we are always the first to
:28:33. > :28:38.grab whatever the New Year will is from America. How do you think this
:28:39. > :28:41.will translate to this country? I think it means that if you are
:28:42. > :28:47.target photo you will still get the same of leaflets and people calling,
:28:48. > :28:52.but you will probably have different kinds of conversations because
:28:53. > :28:58.people on the other side, the party campaigners, will think they know
:28:59. > :29:03.more about you. Will I know who you are? If I am a party campaigner,
:29:04. > :29:08.will I know, looking down the street, who fits into which
:29:09. > :29:11.category? You will be able to approximate that with all of the
:29:12. > :29:17.other data that you have gathered through polling, or doing local
:29:18. > :29:23.campaigning, that is the idea to make sense of this vast quantity of
:29:24. > :29:28.data people have about voters. We asked our panel to fill in your
:29:29. > :29:34.survey. Nick is optimistic contentment, 99%. He was 1%
:29:35. > :29:39.cosmopolitan critic, which is how he keeps his job at the Guardian.
:29:40. > :29:46.Polly's job could not be more secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics,
:29:47. > :29:49.and Janan Ganesh, optimistic contentment, which is what you would
:29:50. > :30:06.expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this
:30:07. > :30:15.technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the
:30:16. > :30:20.population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have
:30:21. > :30:26.got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated
:30:27. > :30:32.methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You
:30:33. > :30:38.said it was used in the US presidential elections. Wasn't there
:30:39. > :30:43.them moment emit Romney 's sweet when the initial response was, we
:30:44. > :30:50.did not know the sort of people voted. His next response was, we did
:30:51. > :30:54.not know these people existed. Unless you know about certain key
:30:55. > :31:00.demographics, you are wasting your time. Is it important in modern
:31:01. > :31:11.campaigning? I think it is useful because it is about attitude. We
:31:12. > :31:16.have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn. It does not tell us very much. What
:31:17. > :31:19.people think and feel may be different to their income. You can
:31:20. > :31:24.be quite a high earner and anxious. You can be quite a low earner and
:31:25. > :31:31.feeling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I think this does
:31:32. > :31:36.get something else. In days gone by, particularly in America,
:31:37. > :31:40.overwhelmingly, if you are in the better of segment, you would be
:31:41. > :31:44.Republican and the blue-collar workers and some academics and
:31:45. > :31:49.Liberals voted Democrat. In the last election, the richest 200 counties
:31:50. > :31:53.in America voted Democrat. That is an attitude thing. Income does not
:31:54. > :31:58.tell you how people will vote. There is a huge, working-class base of
:31:59. > :32:03.support for the Republicans. It is unavoidable. Add a time when people
:32:04. > :32:11.no longer identify with ideologies or class blocks, you have to go the
:32:12. > :32:21.temperament and lifestyle and manageable. In America there were
:32:22. > :32:27.128 segments according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that
:32:28. > :32:31.stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget
:32:32. > :32:40.earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour
:32:41. > :32:47.has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne
:32:48. > :32:53.and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band
:32:54. > :32:55.and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr
:32:56. > :33:12.Miller band. Thank you for being with us today.
:33:13. > :33:15.It's just gone 11:30am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say
:33:16. > :33:18.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics
:33:19. > :33:25.Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes:
:33:26. > :33:31.Hello, and on the Sunday Politics Wales: The SNP's deputy leader tells
:33:32. > :33:36.us what Scottish independence could mean for Wales. The How should
:33:37. > :33:45.Labour respond to criticism of the NHS, including from one of its own
:33:46. > :33:51.MPs. Food there be another clinic in
:33:52. > :33:56.Parliament? -- could there be another Kinnock.
:33:57. > :33:59.But first, have enterprise zones taken off? Well, one entrepreneur
:34:00. > :34:01.told us there are fundamental problems at one of the Welsh
:34:02. > :34:04.government's flagship zones. He claims ministers are failing to
:34:05. > :34:07.deliver their vision of an aerospace enterprise zone in the Vale of
:34:08. > :34:10.Glamorgan. Economy Minister Edwina Hart has said that plans are in
:34:11. > :34:17.place to address those concerns. Bethan Lewis reports.
:34:18. > :34:20.They are meant to help the economy take-off, seven enterprise zones
:34:21. > :34:26.across Wales which the Welsh government says will attract new
:34:27. > :34:35.businesses, jobs and more wealth. The seven areas spoke us on specific
:34:36. > :34:40.sectors and no surprise what this focus is. The Welsh government says
:34:41. > :34:43.incentives have been crucial in attracting new businesses here, but
:34:44. > :34:48.are the conditions in place to help those businesses succeed?
:34:49. > :34:53.Sean owns a Cardiff hotel but was keen to start a business based on
:34:54. > :34:58.his love of flying when he heard an aviation enterprise zone was planned
:34:59. > :35:01.in the Vale of the Morgan. He secured a licence to sell light
:35:02. > :35:06.aircraft which he will import from Europe once they have been modified
:35:07. > :35:10.to meet UK standards. He got a grant from the Welsh government and
:35:11. > :35:18.arranged to rent space in a hangar owned by a bigger company. It gave
:35:19. > :35:27.the green light to our desires to develop a business. I think there is
:35:28. > :35:30.a great amount of potential here. In fairness to the Welsh government,
:35:31. > :35:37.the vision of what could be done with the area. Having been here two
:35:38. > :35:41.years, we are struggling as a number of the businesses are struggling.
:35:42. > :35:46.The crux of the problem is a clash between the traditional military use
:35:47. > :35:50.of the site and the new commercial requirements of the enterprise zone.
:35:51. > :35:54.The site is shared with the Ministry of Defence who operate the airfield,
:35:55. > :36:02.the limited working hours are a frustration to business. They will
:36:03. > :36:08.only operate Monday to Friday, 9:30pm until 4:30pm, office hours,
:36:09. > :36:11.civil service office hours. The reality of business, especially
:36:12. > :36:17.aviation, it is a seven-day week operation, it is very difficult to
:36:18. > :36:23.get it off the ground, and it is a shame because the government needs
:36:24. > :36:29.to be applauded for their vision of creating aviation enterprise zones.
:36:30. > :36:33.Their ability to deliver that has to be questioned.
:36:34. > :36:37.In this week 's enterprise committee at the assembly the Minister said
:36:38. > :36:41.the problem was being addressed. A the company has been awarded a
:36:42. > :36:45.contract to provide a nine to five service on Monday to Saturday April
:36:46. > :36:50.the 1st, and Sundays will be available on request. We acknowledge
:36:51. > :36:56.there has been difficulty for the businesses there that it is
:36:57. > :36:59.difficult taking things through sometimes with the vast organisation
:37:00. > :37:04.in terms of the chain of command, we are committed to get this right and
:37:05. > :37:09.hopefully it will be right and businesses will be very happy and I
:37:10. > :37:12.hope to attract further businesses. That is welcomed by one committee
:37:13. > :37:16.member but he says more generally we need more facts and figures from the
:37:17. > :37:20.Minister about how the enterprise zones across Wales are performing.
:37:21. > :37:25.We are not getting the information we need from government at this
:37:26. > :37:30.point in time, it is important we do get the information, though I do
:37:31. > :37:33.realise commercial sensitivities about the amount of detail we get,
:37:34. > :37:37.but if you have strategies in place, public money being pumped
:37:38. > :37:41.into these enterprise zones, we need to be making sure we are getting
:37:42. > :37:45.value for money, the jobs we really need in the Welsh economy are being
:37:46. > :37:48.created and that is why we have to keep up the pressure on government
:37:49. > :37:52.to prove the enterprises are giving us what we want. Performance
:37:53. > :37:56.indicators for the enterprise zones have been published and there will
:37:57. > :38:02.be job figures in due course, say the government. The minister 's
:38:03. > :38:05.assurance on extended flying hours will be welcomed. Though this
:38:06. > :38:10.businessman argues they will have to go further for Wales' aerospace
:38:11. > :38:13.enterprise zone to reach its full potential.
:38:14. > :38:22.Now, you're no doubt aware that Scotland will hold a referendum on
:38:23. > :38:28.independence in September. If Scots vote yes two years to the
:38:29. > :38:31.day tomorrow, March the 24th, 2016, will be their Independence Day, the
:38:32. > :38:37.day Scotland leaves the UK and strikes out on its own. Tomorrow
:38:38. > :38:39.Scotland's Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will be in Cardiff
:38:40. > :38:47.to address the wealth government centre. I have spoken to her ahead
:38:48. > :38:51.of her visit -- Welsh government centre. I will be setting out the
:38:52. > :38:54.case for Scotland to be independent, the reasons we can be
:38:55. > :38:59.independent, that I believe we should and must be independent, but
:39:00. > :39:03.I will also be saying very clearly to people in Wales and Scotland
:39:04. > :39:07.becoming independent, it is about taking responsibility for our own
:39:08. > :39:12.decisions, it is a Vatican lean not about turning our back on our
:39:13. > :39:18.friends and family in other parts in the UK -- emphatically. The links
:39:19. > :39:22.between others and people in Scotland will always be very close,
:39:23. > :39:27.the family links, the cultural, social ties, our ties of history.
:39:28. > :39:31.These are ties we cherish very much here and it is important we
:39:32. > :39:36.emphasise that while we are also emphasising the reasons why we want
:39:37. > :39:38.Scotland to be independent. People down here scratching their
:39:39. > :39:42.heads wondering how life would change if Scotland became
:39:43. > :39:47.independent. What difference would it make to Wales?
:39:48. > :39:53.It would make many positive differences to Scotland, obviously
:39:54. > :39:57.that is the reasons I am arguing we should be independent, it would
:39:58. > :40:01.benefit Scotland socially, economically, but one of the key
:40:02. > :40:06.aspects of the argument I would be making in Cardiff is in many ways
:40:07. > :40:10.Scotland being independent, by shifting the balance of power within
:40:11. > :40:17.the existing UK, can be of benefit to other parts of the UK. We work as
:40:18. > :40:21.a devolved administration very closely on certain issues with the
:40:22. > :40:26.Welsh assembly government. We make common cause where that is in our
:40:27. > :40:29.mutual interest. If you take the British Irish Council where we sit
:40:30. > :40:33.together with the Republic of Ireland and the UK government having
:40:34. > :40:39.another independent nation in their helps to shift the balance away from
:40:40. > :40:42.Westminster which would clearly be in Scotland's interests but I think
:40:43. > :40:48.will lead to a healthier relationship of the different
:40:49. > :40:51.nations within the UK as well. I see advantages for people in Wales and
:40:52. > :40:55.Northern Ireland as well as big advantages for people in Scotland.
:40:56. > :40:59.It would be of advantage to people in England, you would have a
:41:00. > :41:03.situation where the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the
:41:04. > :41:09.UK would be one of equals. The First Minister in Wales disagrees with you
:41:10. > :41:16.on that, he says Wales and Scotland need allies within the union. He is
:41:17. > :41:20.wrong on that, is he? I think he is entitled to his
:41:21. > :41:24.opinion, he is entitled to argue that case. I wouldn't suggest
:41:25. > :41:28.otherwise. I respectfully disagree with him on that matter. Scotland
:41:29. > :41:33.and Wales within the British Isles will continue to make common cause,
:41:34. > :41:37.and will continue where it suits our shared interest to be on each
:41:38. > :41:42.other's sides, I'm sure the Celtic relationship will continue to be a
:41:43. > :41:46.very strong one, except for my play rugby which is probably an issue I
:41:47. > :41:50.shouldn't go into at the moment. I think it can strengthen those
:41:51. > :41:54.relationships, it doesn't need to undermine them at all. One of the
:41:55. > :41:57.points that is often not properly appreciated, that is the
:41:58. > :42:01.responsibility of those of us who argue for independence to mature it
:42:02. > :42:06.is appreciated, an independent Scotland. Be part of the British
:42:07. > :42:10.Isles, we would still be able to make common cause with Wales or
:42:11. > :42:14.Northern Ireland or other members of the British Irish Council one that
:42:15. > :42:19.suits our common purposes. And a currency union, if you had
:42:20. > :42:26.your way. This is the other quibble. People in Wales should have a say on
:42:27. > :42:30.the currency, if it is going to be a union, a new independent nation
:42:31. > :42:34.involved, surely the people of Wales should have a say in whether they
:42:35. > :42:41.like that arrangement. That is ultimately not a matter for
:42:42. > :42:44.me. My response is being in a shared currency with an independent
:42:45. > :42:51.Scotland doesn't change the currency arrangements for England or Wales. I
:42:52. > :42:54.would argue very strongly it is in the interest of people in other
:42:55. > :42:59.parts of the UK to remain within a currency union, given our trading
:43:00. > :43:04.relationships, the contribution to the UK's balance of payments of our
:43:05. > :43:06.oil and gas and other exports. It is an arrangement that would make sense
:43:07. > :43:10.not just from Scotland's point of view but other parts of the UK.
:43:11. > :43:16.People in Wales, suddenly the currency they use, would be under
:43:17. > :43:21.partial control of a foreign country.
:43:22. > :43:26.If you look at the fiscal commission report, the fiscal commission being
:43:27. > :43:30.the team of economists that have looked at this in some detail for
:43:31. > :43:35.the Scottish government, an independent team of economists, they
:43:36. > :43:39.have set out the governance arrangements that would have to
:43:40. > :43:43.apply if there is, as I believe there will be, a currency union, so
:43:44. > :43:47.sustainability agreements between an independent Scotland and the UK
:43:48. > :43:52.government image of the interests of all parts of the UK are catered for
:43:53. > :43:56.there. I believe it is a common-sense arrangement and it is
:43:57. > :43:59.one that would recognise the fact that Scotland as an independent
:44:00. > :44:11.country would continue to be very close partner -- very close trading
:44:12. > :44:15.partner. Let me put another policy of the Welsh government to you, the
:44:16. > :44:18.funding arrangements, the Barnett formula that sets the budget in
:44:19. > :44:22.Wales and Scotland, needs to be reformed because it short-changes
:44:23. > :44:28.Wales and yet Scotland does very well out of it by comparison. Is
:44:29. > :44:34.there any hope of Barnett reform before a referendum, or Scotland
:44:35. > :44:37.votes no? Firstly, I don't accept Scotland gets treated particularly
:44:38. > :44:41.generously through the Barnett formula. One of the big concerns we
:44:42. > :44:46.have in Scotland, if there was to be a no vote, is we could see reform of
:44:47. > :44:50.the Barnett formula that would lead to significant cuts to the Scottish
:44:51. > :44:54.budget and that is something that would be of enormous concern to
:44:55. > :44:58.Scotland. I completely understand Wales and the Welsh government wants
:44:59. > :45:02.to argue the corner. But the Scot -- but if Scotland becomes independent
:45:03. > :45:07.we become financially independent, we raise our own taxes, we decide
:45:08. > :45:11.how those are spent. That is clearly in the interest, in my view,
:45:12. > :45:17.Scotland. Of course, it would lead to a scenario in which Wales could
:45:18. > :45:23.argue for, in their view, a fairer funding arrangements with the
:45:24. > :45:28.Westminster government. If there is a No vote would you work with the
:45:29. > :45:32.Welsh government to reform Barnett? Obviously Wales has to make its case
:45:33. > :45:35.in terms of what it considers to be fairer funding. I think the point I
:45:36. > :45:41.would make strongly is a good accept the premise that Scotland is treated
:45:42. > :45:44.disproportionately generously through the Barnett formula, that is
:45:45. > :45:50.not how it is felt in these times of cuts over the past number of years.
:45:51. > :45:54.We would be against any reform of the Barnett formula that led to a
:45:55. > :45:58.cut in Scotland's budget and clearly that is something that we would have
:45:59. > :46:02.to argue very strongly with the Westminster government. It is
:46:03. > :46:05.absolutely right of the Welsh government to argue with Westminster
:46:06. > :46:09.they need fairer funding, but I don't believe that should be at the
:46:10. > :46:15.expense of Scotland. I believe the best solution is for Scotland to be
:46:16. > :46:17.independent. There can be no arguments about Scotland's finances
:46:18. > :46:22.if we raise our own taxes and are responsible for our own spending
:46:23. > :46:25.decisions. Scottish deputy First Minister,
:46:26. > :46:29.Nicola Sturgeon. We'll be getting the response of the No camp in the
:46:30. > :46:32.next few weeks. Now, last night Labour Party members
:46:33. > :46:37.in Aberavon chose Stephen Kinnock as their parliamentary candidate.
:46:38. > :46:45.Familiar name? That's because his father Neil used to be Labour's
:46:46. > :46:49.leader and his mother was an MEP. What's more, his wife is the Prime
:46:50. > :46:52.Minister of Denmark. I spoke to him earlier and asked how much time will
:46:53. > :46:58.be able to spend in the constituency if he ever got elected?
:46:59. > :47:04.My plan is to spend all of my working time working for people of
:47:05. > :47:10.Aberavon between the constituency and Westminster. It would be the
:47:11. > :47:15.usual role for an MP which is to divide his or her week between
:47:16. > :47:20.Westminster and the constituency. My plan is to be there every single
:47:21. > :47:25.weekend that I need to be there. One of the things you need to be able to
:47:26. > :47:30.do is pass the Saturday morning shopping test, you need to be there
:47:31. > :47:33.bumping into people, talking to people, listening to the issues and
:47:34. > :47:38.concerns of the community, and you can only do that if you are living
:47:39. > :47:44.in the community. I am sure your opponents will try to make much of
:47:45. > :47:47.your name and said this is a Labour dynasty, a Labour elite, in just the
:47:48. > :47:55.same weight Labour has said there is an elite in charge of the
:47:56. > :47:58.Conservatives. How do you respond? I have been living in put all but for
:47:59. > :48:04.the last three months, speaking to pretty much all of the Labour
:48:05. > :48:10.members -- brought Tolbert. It is not universal advantage to have the
:48:11. > :48:14.Senate I have. There are people who may have voted against me because of
:48:15. > :48:22.my family is. It was much more about who I am and what I have done.
:48:23. > :48:28.People really wanted to meet, talk and make a decision about who was
:48:29. > :48:33.the best candidate. We had a very vigorous and intense competition
:48:34. > :48:38.with some strong candidates, and I am of sleep delighted I emerged the
:48:39. > :48:42.winner from that. The Labour Welsh government record is under huge
:48:43. > :48:45.scrutiny and pressure on public services. Does that make your job
:48:46. > :48:54.more difficult? There is this leak some policy areas
:48:55. > :48:57.and competencies which are Welsh assembly, down which are
:48:58. > :49:01.Westminster. The key thing is we work as a team. I look forward to
:49:02. > :49:07.working with our excellent team of local councillors and with our
:49:08. > :49:12.fantastic assembly member in Aberavon and we as a team can put
:49:13. > :49:14.forward Labour's offer. That is on health, education, also crucially on
:49:15. > :49:17.jobs. You heard me ask Mr Kinnock about
:49:18. > :49:21.Labour's Welsh government. Perhaps the most wounding criticism it's
:49:22. > :49:29.faced recently has come from one of its own MPs.
:49:30. > :49:34.And glue it started her campaign after she claimed her husband, Owen
:49:35. > :49:39.Roberts, spent 27 hours on a trolley before he died at the University
:49:40. > :49:42.Hospital of Wales in Cardiff. It is not a personal campaign, and she
:49:43. > :49:46.says she will keep going. Other patients have contacted her with her
:49:47. > :49:50.own stories -- with their own stories will top that prompted this
:49:51. > :49:58.response from the First Minister for top --. She has produced nothing but
:49:59. > :50:03.anonymous comments that cannot be treated, we don't know whether they
:50:04. > :50:06.are correct or not, they cannot be investigated. We have asked her on
:50:07. > :50:10.more than one occasion to produce the evidence to back up her claims.
:50:11. > :50:13.I have done it, the Ministry of health has done it, I have done it
:50:14. > :50:18.in person and writing, she has not done it. You cannot show and the
:50:19. > :50:22.dated protection act, I cannot show people 's names and addresses,
:50:23. > :50:26.unless they want them to be made public. So I had to protect the
:50:27. > :50:31.people who wrote to me. I made it quite clear in the synopsis that we
:50:32. > :50:37.prepared for the First Minister after the meeting I had with him on
:50:38. > :50:45.December the 2nd, that was included in the letter, several pages of
:50:46. > :50:52.precis information. Many people have already complained. It is well-known
:50:53. > :50:55.needs complaint are there. The Royal College of Nursing has asked to see
:50:56. > :50:59.information about the case. When the health board released some details
:51:00. > :51:04.she called for the board's chair and chief executive to resign for stop
:51:05. > :51:09.we asked what action the health board had taken in response to the
:51:10. > :51:11.very severe accusations made. They were affecting patient care. As a
:51:12. > :51:17.Royal College which is the professional body we feel it is
:51:18. > :51:22.detrimental to patient care that is not in the public domain. It is a
:51:23. > :51:25.row Labour could have done without. Criticism from opponents is one
:51:26. > :51:31.thing, but how should the Welsh government respond when there is
:51:32. > :51:33.flak from both sides? It is the patients and clinicians that are
:51:34. > :51:36.suffering. Well, let's discuss that question
:51:37. > :51:41.now with Lee Waters, director of the think-tank, the Institute of Welsh
:51:42. > :51:44.Affairs. It is a tricky position that Colin
:51:45. > :51:49.Jones finds himself in. How should he handle it? -- car when Jones will
:51:50. > :52:00.. He hasn't felt much pressure, he has had a relatively easy ride. The
:52:01. > :52:03.big change, this is where the frustration is coming out, is that
:52:04. > :52:09.London is coming for him. We have seen there is an explicit political
:52:10. > :52:12.strategy, Grant Shapps said Labour 's record in Wales will be a key
:52:13. > :52:17.issue in the general election next year with a theme that you know what
:52:18. > :52:21.Labour looks like because they are governing Wales. Things are not
:52:22. > :52:27.good. What happened in the last couple of weeks is an clue it has
:52:28. > :52:31.been quoted in London newspapers, yesterday a strong piece in the
:52:32. > :52:34.Daily Mail, where scrutineers coming on the Welsh government, most people
:52:35. > :52:38.get the information in Wales about what is going on from the London
:52:39. > :52:42.media. The London media has pretty much ignored us until now, but now
:52:43. > :52:47.they are starting to turn the screws on the First Minister is feeling the
:52:48. > :52:54.pressure. We saw frustration there. That anger that he has expressed, it
:52:55. > :53:00.is not just from her, it is London pay more attention to what he is
:53:01. > :53:06.doing. Over the last year both in the health professions who have been
:53:07. > :53:10.getting agitated, have not been feeling they could fight back. But
:53:11. > :53:14.also politically because this is friendly fire. She was asked to do
:53:15. > :53:19.this enquiry by David Cameron, and enquiry into England, but she has
:53:20. > :53:22.continuously pointed the finger towards Wales. The Health Ministry
:53:23. > :53:25.and First Minister have been getting increasingly frustrated that she
:53:26. > :53:29.hasn't backed that up. There is genuine frustration around that but
:53:30. > :53:33.obviously this is a political issue and it is the internal elliptical
:53:34. > :53:38.implications the First Minister is feeling the pressure. Within the
:53:39. > :53:42.Labour Party, an opinion poll, leading of the Tories down to 1%.
:53:43. > :53:47.Concerned with the Labour ranks about their strategy, and for every
:53:48. > :53:52.time by ministers question Time David Cameron works at Miliband fork
:53:53. > :53:58.the performance of the First Minister there is resentment at the
:53:59. > :54:01.London level. He is facing questions from Labour HQ. There is bound to be
:54:02. > :54:06.frustration. When Vegas two at Miliband and says for example on the
:54:07. > :54:11.Barnett formula, he has been calling for reform for a number of years, he
:54:12. > :54:13.has got nowhere. This week, in Scotland, the Liberal party have
:54:14. > :54:18.said in Scotland the Labour Party is here to stay so they have
:54:19. > :54:24.effectively told him they are not going to exceed to his demands and
:54:25. > :54:29.as they hear more details. They offer is rated E is opening up a
:54:30. > :54:34.weak flank for them at Westminster. The frustration is both erected at
:54:35. > :54:39.the stage of the health service, the fact this is coming from a Labour
:54:40. > :54:41.politician, and also in terms of its impact on the internal dynamics and
:54:42. > :54:47.negotiations within the Labour Party. The way he responded, will
:54:48. > :54:53.improve matters, one wonders how this round is going to end?
:54:54. > :54:55.I don't think the turn in First Minister 's questions is
:54:56. > :54:59.particularly helpful, he does get a little too strident at times. This
:55:00. > :55:03.is going to get worse. He has no majority for stop health service
:55:04. > :55:06.funding will get squeezed, the Wales audit office produced a report last
:55:07. > :55:12.year which said within ten years there will be a funding shortfall in
:55:13. > :55:15.Welsh public services of ?2.5 billion, just in Wales, two thirds
:55:16. > :55:18.of the spending cuts coming from Westminster haven't yet been
:55:19. > :55:21.implemented. The pressure on public services will get more intense and
:55:22. > :55:24.there is no clear political strategy from the wash them and how they will
:55:25. > :55:29.deal with that, they have to make the angel -- painful changes.
:55:30. > :55:33.Whenever they try and close maternity unit there is huge protest
:55:34. > :55:38.and they don't have a majority for stop there is a lot of pressure, no
:55:39. > :55:45.quick fix and politics is very tricky. And the pressure from the
:55:46. > :55:51.press will not lessen either. It will be a recurring theme. They
:55:52. > :55:54.have got a point, the performance of education, in health service, and on
:55:55. > :55:58.the economy, is not whether Welsh allotment would expect it to be.
:55:59. > :56:02.They are struggling to find their story to tell back to defend
:56:03. > :56:09.themselves and they are getting a lot of pressure internally and
:56:10. > :56:12.externally which makes him ratty. We invited the Labour Party and the
:56:13. > :56:16.Welsh government to come on the programme and join our discussion
:56:17. > :56:19.but never he was available. It is Welsh Labour conference next week so
:56:20. > :56:21.I dare say we will have an opportunity to ask them all about
:56:22. > :56:23.it. And that's all from me decision, she will weigh up the
:56:24. > :56:39.The big news is the popular server is struggling to control all of the
:56:40. > :56:44.people who want to find out where they fit in the political spectrum.
:56:45. > :56:49.It hasn't quite crashed but it is queueing up those people. Who would
:56:50. > :56:59.have thought the Sunday Politics had so many viewers? It has never
:57:00. > :57:01.happened on the X factor. This morning's papers don't make
:57:02. > :57:04.comfortable reading for Labour with two separate polls showing the
:57:05. > :57:07.party's lead over the Tories is down to just one point. And there's been
:57:08. > :57:10.plenty of criticism of Ed Miliband's response to the Budget. Let's take a
:57:11. > :57:13.look. You know you are in trouble when even the Education Secretary
:57:14. > :57:26.calls you and out of touch bunch of elitist. Where is he? He is hiding!
:57:27. > :57:33.I think he has been consigned to the naughty step by the Prime Minister.
:57:34. > :57:37.The naughty step! And we're joined now by shadow chief secretary to the
:57:38. > :57:41.Treasury, Chris Leslie. There was a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:42. > :57:48.Balls to the Autumn Statement, now a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:49. > :57:54.Miliband to the Budget. Does this show you are struggling at the
:57:55. > :57:59.moment? Of course Ed Balls and Ed Miliband don't want to hear the fact
:58:00. > :58:03.that in reality, for most people, life is getting harder and there is
:58:04. > :58:12.the cost of living crisis. Did we get any mention of that in the
:58:13. > :58:17.Budget? Of course we didn't. We were waiting for action on the cost of
:58:18. > :58:22.living and it wasn't forthcoming. Ed Miliband came up with the tactic of
:58:23. > :58:27.responding to the Budget without mentioning anything that was in it.
:58:28. > :58:31.He mentioned the fact the personal tax allowance was a bit of a
:58:32. > :58:38.giveaway but he takes more with the other hand. He is in favour of that,
:58:39. > :58:42.right? Anything we can get but we need a lot more. Let me tell you
:58:43. > :58:50.something else he mentioned, the fact the national debt has risen by
:58:51. > :58:54.a third and George Osborne and David Cameron... They knew that before the
:58:55. > :58:59.Budget. The borrowing figures were announced and Ed Miliband made
:59:00. > :59:04.reference to those. There is not a lot of happiness on Labour
:59:05. > :59:09.backbenchers about this, is there? And indeed not a lot of happiness in
:59:10. > :59:15.the shadow cabinet. There is concern that Ed Miliband is on a journey to
:59:16. > :59:18.remodel world capitalism whilst George Osborne is firing some love
:59:19. > :59:23.bombs at Middle England by talking about freeing up the pensions market
:59:24. > :59:28.and there is real nerves that what Ed Miliband is saying is not going
:59:29. > :59:34.to be in tune with those middle income earners that the Labour Party
:59:35. > :59:41.has got to attract if they are going to win the general election. When
:59:42. > :59:45.Rachel Reeves used the medium of Radio 4 to announce you were broadly
:59:46. > :59:48.in favour of the pension reforms announced by the Chancellor on
:59:49. > :59:59.Friday night, was that a result of a decision taken by the shadow
:00:00. > :00:05.cabinet? Is With annuities, they are a very old-fashioned product. There
:00:06. > :00:12.are some serious questions which need to be addressed. Was that the
:00:13. > :00:17.result of a Shadow Cabinet decision? We have not had a Shadow
:00:18. > :00:21.Cabinet since the budget. We all want to make sure that we understand
:00:22. > :00:27.the point about flexibility. No one is arguing with that. There are some
:00:28. > :00:30.serious concerns. Let me give you a couple of examples. This is
:00:31. > :00:35.something the Chancellor has done, he claims, for reasons of freedom
:00:36. > :00:39.and flexibility. Is it a coincidence he is grabbing quite a lot of tax
:00:40. > :00:46.from pensioners early on to plug a hole which is necessary because the
:00:47. > :00:52.deficit has not gone down? Forgive me for being slightly cynical about
:00:53. > :00:57.motives. For or against it? We need to have safeguards for protection of
:00:58. > :01:01.pensioners. What will it do for the annuity market if most people still
:01:02. > :01:09.want to have a steadying come for a third of their lives? -- steady
:01:10. > :01:17.income. What does Labour have to do to get it show back on the road? The
:01:18. > :01:21.question is, how do people feel? How many people will still not be
:01:22. > :01:25.feeling better by the next election? Wages may be rising slightly but not
:01:26. > :01:30.for a large and significant number of people. They were just looking at
:01:31. > :01:34.the YouGov poll. If you look at the middle to low earners, they are
:01:35. > :01:39.overwhelmingly pro-labour. Can Labour get those people out to vote?
:01:40. > :01:43.They are really hurting. There are plenty of them. The question is
:01:44. > :01:48.whether people are optimistic because they see figures as if they
:01:49. > :01:53.look as if they are on the up or whether they vote according to how
:01:54. > :01:58.they feel, which will still be very far behind. Cost of living has been
:01:59. > :02:03.a major mantra from Labour. That's that this chart shows how things are
:02:04. > :02:09.beginning to change. What this shows is that, sometime this year, after a
:02:10. > :02:13.long time at which average earnings trailed inflation, they now overtake
:02:14. > :02:20.it in the run-up to the election and they stay there for the forecast
:02:21. > :02:26.period. What do you now do if your cost of living mantra is running out
:02:27. > :02:30.of steam? I am not sure that, for most people, they will recognise the
:02:31. > :02:32.sense that suddenly things will be getting better. Particularly the
:02:33. > :02:39.younger generation are really feeling quite down about the
:02:40. > :02:46.pressures they are facing to make ends meet. You can see the lines are
:02:47. > :02:51.exaggerated because the Y axis on the side starts quite high up. It
:02:52. > :02:55.does not start at zero. The other statistic from the OBR is that we
:02:56. > :02:59.will not be getting back to the point where wages are exceeding
:03:00. > :03:07.prices from the pre-banking crisis period until late 2017. There are
:03:08. > :03:10.some really serious pressures that people are under. What they wanted
:03:11. > :03:16.was a budget that would address concerns and, for the vast majority
:03:17. > :03:22.of people, they will have heard the statement by George Osborne and
:03:23. > :03:30.think, how is it really help them now? It did not address it. It is
:03:31. > :03:35.clear that by 2015, average living standards will probably not have
:03:36. > :03:38.returned to where they were in 2010. Average wages will not have
:03:39. > :03:43.done that. On the other hand, the chart shows the sense of direction
:03:44. > :03:48.is moving in the right way. Which one matters more with the
:03:49. > :03:52.electorate? I suspect it is sense of direction. People sense of
:03:53. > :03:57.prosperity does not need to be buoyant. It has to be something
:03:58. > :04:02.worth preserving. We have to fear the all turn. That is what intrigued
:04:03. > :04:07.me this week. People make too much of a fuss about the Parliamentary
:04:08. > :04:12.response by Ed Miliband. People will forgive a bad day at the dispatch
:04:13. > :04:19.box. What they will not forgive is the absence of a macro economic
:04:20. > :04:23.mess. Labour have a very powerful message on living standards and lots
:04:24. > :04:30.of popular, targeted interventions like the energy price freeze. You
:04:31. > :04:35.can imagine they will be sufficiently nervous about that next
:04:36. > :04:43.year. If living standards are not back to where they were, Labour can
:04:44. > :04:51.say, are you better off now than when you were four years ago? The
:04:52. > :05:03.reason why break and -- wallowed waken one that is because Jimmy
:05:04. > :05:11.Carter mucked it up -- Ronald Reagan. Labour have to say, vote for
:05:12. > :05:15.us and you will get 2 million homes. At the moment, the offer is very
:05:16. > :05:19.modest. You need to find the money to do that. People need to
:05:20. > :05:23.understand that housing is at the very heart of the economy, as well
:05:24. > :05:30.as young people and their aspirations. At the moment, Labour
:05:31. > :05:33.'s offer is not spectacular in. If the focus group shows the cost of
:05:34. > :05:39.living crisis have no longer has the attraction it did, what line do you
:05:40. > :05:41.move onto? Yellow McCoy must remind people of the wasted years and the
:05:42. > :05:49.cost of living pressures they have been under. -- we must remind
:05:50. > :05:57.people. We want a recovery which has low growth, low wage. A race to the
:05:58. > :06:04.bottom. They want a recovery that is felt by everyone, shared and felt by
:06:05. > :06:09.all. Now, here's an idea to twist your melon. Mark Berry, better known
:06:10. > :06:11.as Bez, it says here he's a member of something called The Happy
:06:12. > :06:15.Mondays, wants to stand for parliament. He's best known for
:06:16. > :06:19.being in a band, and not doing very much, so he might fit in. Here he is
:06:20. > :06:48.in action. And Bez joins us from our Salford
:06:49. > :06:56.studio. Good to see you. Is this a genuine candidacy or are you
:06:57. > :07:04.twisting my melon? Amazing how time flies when you're having fun! You
:07:05. > :07:09.having fun doing this candidacy? I am doing the job of the politicians
:07:10. > :07:14.and standing up for the people and bringing attention to the horror of
:07:15. > :07:19.fracking, which is a totally unsafe technology. There is no one in
:07:20. > :07:24.mainstream politics who is discussing or saying anything about
:07:25. > :07:29.it. It is an unsafe technology and it has been proven in America. You
:07:30. > :07:39.see the process in America and the people out on the streets. The whole
:07:40. > :07:43.atmosphere has been made toxic. These people are allowing it to
:07:44. > :07:50.happen in the name of profit. This has been a Labour seat you are
:07:51. > :07:55.fighting in Salford since 1945. It is a tough mountain. Supposing you
:07:56. > :08:02.were to win, could you ever see yourself entering a coalition? With
:08:03. > :08:05.a bit of luck I may be able to shame Labour politicians to do the job
:08:06. > :08:09.properly and stand up for the rights of people. They are not and I am
:08:10. > :08:14.having to do that job. All I am doing is causing debate and bringing
:08:15. > :08:19.to attention the horror that is hanging on our doorsteps. It is not
:08:20. > :08:23.only fracking but GM modified foods that they want to bring into this
:08:24. > :08:32.country as well. Owen Paterson is one of the main lobbyists. Lobbying
:08:33. > :08:37.is legalised bribery, by the way. It is run by the bankers. Basically, we
:08:38. > :08:42.have to stop these monsters from getting into our country and turning
:08:43. > :08:48.our land into a toxic waste. That is what I am trying to say. You are
:08:49. > :08:54.raising the debate, as you are doing with us here. We do not really need
:08:55. > :08:59.fracking. You have done that and you have talked about other things as
:09:00. > :09:06.well. In terms of a new integrity, if you were to become an MP, would
:09:07. > :09:10.you claim expenses? If I ever do get in charge, I would completely enter
:09:11. > :09:14.the banking system and there would be expensive, but they would be like
:09:15. > :09:19.bus passes and train passes. You behave like the people and you are
:09:20. > :09:24.in touch with the people, you move with the people and do understand
:09:25. > :09:28.what the people want. You do not live in acre Kuhn of your own making
:09:29. > :09:36.of luxury, wealth and total disregard of everyone else. -- a
:09:37. > :09:39.cocoon. If you did get into the Palace of Westminster and had to
:09:40. > :09:45.mingle with all these people, who would you rather have in night out
:09:46. > :09:54.with - Mr Cameron, Mr Miller band or Mr Clegg? I would be willing to
:09:55. > :10:02.discuss politics with anybody. I would make them realise what they
:10:03. > :10:08.are doing. I am glad too have a debate and with anyone. The people
:10:09. > :10:15.of Salford, quite a lot people people behind me. I have been
:10:16. > :10:23.speaking to Salford councillors. They are going to lend me their
:10:24. > :10:29.support. The people of Salford, and not to forget the people of Eccles,
:10:30. > :10:34.sending you much. We must stop this horror. There is a monster on our
:10:35. > :10:39.doorstep and we must stop it, people. Do not forget to take your
:10:40. > :10:48.maracas on campaign trail. Would you like a pair to shake yourself? You
:10:49. > :10:53.shake your maracas against fracking! Thanks, Bez, goodbye. Thank you for
:10:54. > :11:00.giving me a little platform to express my views. Now if there's one
:11:01. > :11:03.thing that gets us hot under the collar here at the Sunday Politics
:11:04. > :11:06.it's European elections. The only thing we like more than the
:11:07. > :11:10.elections themselves is a TV debate about them. And we're in luck! Take
:11:11. > :11:14.a look at this. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome leader of
:11:15. > :11:22.the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Gives
:11:23. > :11:30.the most fantastic welcome to Nigel Farage. I would challenge Nigel
:11:31. > :11:37.Farage to a public, open debate, about whether she we should be out
:11:38. > :11:48.all in of the European Union. I will do it for Nick Clegg. Since 2009, I
:11:49. > :11:54.have taken part in 45% of votes in the European Parliament. Nigel
:11:55. > :12:02.Farage has not tabled a single amendment since July 2009. Mr Clegg
:12:03. > :12:10.has only taken part in 22% of votes in the House of commons. You can
:12:11. > :12:22.watch the debate at 7pm on the 2nd of April over on BBC Two. And for a
:12:23. > :12:25.chance to be part of the studio audience on the night and put your
:12:26. > :12:28.question to the two party leaders, e-mail the question you'd like to
:12:29. > :12:30.ask to europedebate@bbc.co.uk or tweet it using the hashtag
:12:31. > :12:33.#europedebate. And Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will be limbering up
:12:34. > :12:42.this week with their first debate on LBC radio on Wednesday. Who is going
:12:43. > :12:47.to come out the best? I suspect Nigel Farage. It is easy to portray
:12:48. > :12:52.Nick Clegg as morally compromised, who has not asserted himself in
:12:53. > :12:57.government. I do wonder about Nigel Farage, whether he is much better at
:12:58. > :13:02.delivering a popular line and responding to the second question of
:13:03. > :13:06.third question. Nick Clegg will win it hands over fist because he knows
:13:07. > :13:10.this stuff. He is right. The evidence that he can produce about
:13:11. > :13:18.what will happen if we pulled out of Europe will, I think, overwhelm
:13:19. > :13:25.Nigel Farage 's one-liners. They will both be winners because you
:13:26. > :13:29.will have the rare sight of the pro-European saying he likes the
:13:30. > :13:34.European Union. That is unlike Eurosceptics who tie themselves up
:13:35. > :13:48.in knots. 14 Nigel, one for Nick and one for both. There you go. Here is
:13:49. > :13:52.a mess, it is Janen Ganesh. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is
:13:53. > :13:55.on BBC Two at Lunchtime every day this week, I'll be back here next
:13:56. > :13:57.week with Energy Secretary Ed Davey. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the
:13:58. > :14:03.Sunday Politics.