:00:37. > :00:42.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:43. > :00:46.Can Ed Davey keep the lights on? Can he ever deliver cheaper power? Or
:00:47. > :00:50.the investment our energy market badly needs? We'll be asking the
:00:51. > :00:53.Energy Secretary. Why has the anti-independence Better
:00:54. > :00:58.Together campaign suddenly got the jitters? We'll be quizzing Scottish
:00:59. > :01:00.Secretary Alistair Carmichael. And whatever happened to the BNP?
:01:01. > :01:08.Later in the programme, Mark They could be heading for
:01:09. > :01:12.Later in the programme, Mark Drakeford tells me about new
:01:13. > :01:15.legislation designed to keep us healthy. We hear from Ed
:01:16. > :01:18.legislation designed to keep us which runs the capital's Fire
:01:19. > :01:19.Service. The Mayor has a political move designed to silence his
:01:20. > :01:28.critics. And with me, as always, the most
:01:29. > :01:32.useless political panel in the business, who we're contractually
:01:33. > :01:36.obliged to insult on a weekly basis. But not today, because they are our
:01:37. > :01:44.chosen ones. They are the brightest and the best, we've even hired a
:01:45. > :01:50.plane to prove it: Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh and Nick Watt who'll be
:01:51. > :01:53.tweeting throughout the programme. Right, left and centre of the
:01:54. > :01:56.Westminster Establishment have been unanimous in saying there would be
:01:57. > :02:01.no chance of monetary union with the rest of the UK for an independent
:02:02. > :02:04.Scotland. Then an unnamed minister spoke to our Nick saying that wasn't
:02:05. > :02:09.necessarily so, and that made the Guardian's front page. The SNP were
:02:10. > :02:15.delighted and the anti-independence campaign rushed to limit the damage.
:02:16. > :02:17.The faux pas has come at a time when the Better Together side was already
:02:18. > :02:23.beginning to worry that things were going the Nationalists' way. Let's
:02:24. > :02:25.speak to a leading light in that campaign, Scottish Secretary
:02:26. > :02:34.Alistair Carmichael, who's in Aberdeen at the Scottish Liberal
:02:35. > :02:38.Democrat spring conference. Alistair Carmichael, why is there a
:02:39. > :02:49.sense of crisis now engulfing the no campaign? I think that is something
:02:50. > :02:54.of an overstatement. What you have got is, I am getting my own voice
:02:55. > :02:59.played back in my ear. What you have got here is one story from an
:03:00. > :03:04.unnamed source, a minister who we are told, we do not know for
:03:05. > :03:08.certain, who has speculated on the possibility of a currency union
:03:09. > :03:11.actually happening. I do not think that is helpful but it is not any
:03:12. > :03:16.big deal. You have to measure it against what we have got publicly
:03:17. > :03:19.named on the record. We have got a detailed intervention of the
:03:20. > :03:22.Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, outlining all the
:03:23. > :03:27.reasons why a currency union would not be a good idea. And then you
:03:28. > :03:31.have got independent advice from the permanent Secretary of the Treasury
:03:32. > :03:35.himself saying actually, this is such a bad idea, that I would never
:03:36. > :03:42.advise a chancellor to go ahead with it. You set one against the other
:03:43. > :03:45.and you see that pretty much the force of argument is very much
:03:46. > :03:49.against those of us who want to remain in the United Kingdom. All
:03:50. > :03:53.the minister was saying is come the day, if Westminster is negotiating
:03:54. > :03:57.with a new independent Scotland, a deal is to be done, Faslane where
:03:58. > :04:03.the nuclear deterrent is, there is nowhere else in the UK to put that
:04:04. > :04:06.is, certainly not for the next 20 years, a deal would be done, the
:04:07. > :04:09.nuclear weapons would stay in Faslane and Scotland would get a
:04:10. > :04:15.monetary union with the rest of the UK. That is perfectly plausible,
:04:16. > :04:20.isn't it? No, I'm sorry, it is simply not plausible. The economy is
:04:21. > :04:24.more important than anything else. What you have had here is very clear
:04:25. > :04:28.advice from the treasury officials saying it is not in the economic
:04:29. > :04:31.best interests of the people of England Wales, Northern Ireland, any
:04:32. > :04:40.more than it is in the interests of people in Scotland. Where do you put
:04:41. > :04:48.the nukes? The outcome will not change. Where do you put the nukes
:04:49. > :04:52.when the Nationalists kick you out? I do not believe that will be a
:04:53. > :04:56.problem because I do not believe Scotland will vote for independence.
:04:57. > :05:00.But you might be asking the Scottish Nationalists, who are apparently
:05:01. > :05:04.promoting this, are they then not sincere when they say they want to
:05:05. > :05:09.remove nuclear weapons from Scotland? It seems to be a curious
:05:10. > :05:13.mixed message. As you know, I have not got the Nationalists, I have got
:05:14. > :05:27.you, so let me ask you the questions. You are widely seen as
:05:28. > :05:29.running a campaign which is too negative. The Nationalists are
:05:30. > :05:31.narrowing the gap in the poll found you are squabbling among yourselves.
:05:32. > :05:36.This campaign is going pear shaped, isn't it? No, let's deal with the
:05:37. > :05:42.polls. All the polls show that the people of Scotland want to stay as
:05:43. > :05:47.part of the United Kingdom. Yes, there were a couple of polls last
:05:48. > :05:52.week that said the gap was narrowing a little. The most recent poll of
:05:53. > :05:57.all, the poll on Wednesday which actually polled people's voting
:05:58. > :06:01.intentions on the question come September showed that only 28% of
:06:02. > :06:06.people in Scotland were prepared to say they were voting yes, as opposed
:06:07. > :06:12.to the 42% who were on our side of the argument saying they wish to
:06:13. > :06:16.remain part of the UK. That poll said women were skewing towards a
:06:17. > :06:21.yes vote and it showed that the don't knows were beginning to skew
:06:22. > :06:25.towards a yes vote. That is why you yourself wrote this morning that if
:06:26. > :06:31.your campaign does not get its act together, you would be sleepwalking
:06:32. > :06:35.into a split to quote yourself. No, to quote myself I said it was not
:06:36. > :06:40.impossible that the Nationalists could win that. That is absolutely
:06:41. > :06:43.the case. The biggest danger for the United Kingdom camp in this whole
:06:44. > :06:48.argument is people will look at the polls. They show us with a healthy
:06:49. > :07:04.lead consistently. As a consequence, they think this will not happen. It
:07:05. > :07:06.can happen. I have got to tell everybody that it could, not least
:07:07. > :07:09.because the Nationalists have an enormous advantage in terms of the
:07:10. > :07:11.amount of money they have at their disposal to buy momentum. They will
:07:12. > :07:15.be advertising in cinemas, in football matches and on social
:07:16. > :07:20.media. We have got to realise what is coming and as a consequence, we
:07:21. > :07:27.have got to get our arguments in place and our campaign as sharp as
:07:28. > :07:31.theirs. Thank you for joining us. Nick, this unnamed minister who gave
:07:32. > :07:39.you the story, did he or she know what they were doing? I do not think
:07:40. > :07:43.they were sitting there wanting to blast this out there, because the
:07:44. > :07:48.agreed government position was there will not be a currency union, if
:07:49. > :07:55.there is a vote for independence. But what I was managing to get hold
:07:56. > :07:58.of whether thoughts that are in the deeper recesses of people's minds,
:07:59. > :08:02.when they are looking at the polls which have been narrowing, or there
:08:03. > :08:06.was Alistair Carmichael quite rightly says, the pro-UK vote is
:08:07. > :08:11.still ahead. People are looking down the line, what would happen after
:08:12. > :08:15.the 18th of September this year, not just the next day but the next
:08:16. > :08:20.year, in those very lengthy negotiations that would take place,
:08:21. > :08:23.when there would be a lot of moving places on the table. You talked
:08:24. > :08:27.about Faslane, what would happen then and that is what I managed to
:08:28. > :08:32.get hold of, that there are thoughts about all those pieces that would be
:08:33. > :08:35.on the table. It is not surprising that some in Westminster think
:08:36. > :08:41.that. Let's take the Shadow Chancellor Danny Alexander at his
:08:42. > :08:45.word, they do not want a monetary union. But if they are faced with
:08:46. > :08:49.giving the Scots a monetary union in a post-independent Scotland, or
:08:50. > :08:53.having to remove the nuclear submarines from Faslane, where they
:08:54. > :08:59.have nowhere else to put them, probably except North America, there
:09:00. > :09:03.is a deal to be done. I think whatever minister gave Nick his
:09:04. > :09:06.story is probably onto something. If the Scots vote for independence, of
:09:07. > :09:11.course a deal will be done about the currency because it is not in
:09:12. > :09:14.London's interests to have a rancorous relationship with
:09:15. > :09:21.Edinburgh. Even if the deal is not done, how does one country stop
:09:22. > :09:29.another country using its. That is different. All London can really do
:09:30. > :09:32.is prevent Scottish intervention on the monetary policy committee. The
:09:33. > :09:37.interest rate would be set without any regard to the Scottish interest.
:09:38. > :09:42.Even that is only a fatal problem if the Scottish economy becomes so out
:09:43. > :09:47.of sync with the UK economy. Except it is a problem for Scotland's
:09:48. > :09:50.financial system because if you go down that route there is no means of
:09:51. > :09:54.injecting liquidity into the financial system in the financial
:09:55. > :09:58.crisis. That is why they would rather have a monetary union. Is it
:09:59. > :10:01.not remarkable to hear the Secretary of State for Scotland here that the
:10:02. > :10:05.Nationalists are spending too much money, when he represents a campaign
:10:06. > :10:09.which brings together all the major parties in the UK and all the
:10:10. > :10:13.resources of the UK and he is bleating about the Nationalists
:10:14. > :10:18.having more to spend? I did think that was a funny line and it was in
:10:19. > :10:21.the Observer. It lays into Alex Salmond's plucky upstart idea that
:10:22. > :10:28.he's taking on this big establishment. I thought it was a
:10:29. > :10:32.bizarre open goal, I am losing my football metaphors, forgive me. The
:10:33. > :10:40.polls are so in favour of a no vote. But the trend has been going
:10:41. > :10:44.their way. We have six months left which is not enough to close the
:10:45. > :10:52.gap. They always tell you Alex Salmond is a strong finisher. The
:10:53. > :10:55.plucky upstarts have this funding from a millionaire. The Better
:10:56. > :10:59.Together campaign are being incredibly cautious about where they
:11:00. > :11:03.get their money from. They do not want to go to the City of London
:11:04. > :11:06.Police say, give us a couple of million.
:11:07. > :11:09.Being Energy Secretary used to be a bit of a dawdle, especially when
:11:10. > :11:17.North Sea oil was flowing. Now it's very much a hot potato as Ed Davey
:11:18. > :11:25.has been finding out the hard way. High household energy bills have
:11:26. > :11:30.been top of his inbox. The big six energy companies account for 95% of
:11:31. > :11:34.the market. Off Johnson -- Ofgem said there had been possible tacit
:11:35. > :11:39.coordination in the timing of price rises and ordered an investigation
:11:40. > :11:42.by the competition and markets authorities which will look at
:11:43. > :11:47.whether the big six should be broken up. Where does that leave
:11:48. > :11:52.investment? The boss of Centrica made the point that you would not
:11:53. > :11:56.spend money building an extension if you knew in two years time your home
:11:57. > :12:01.might be bulldozed. The spare margin, that is what is left in the
:12:02. > :12:06.generating system to cope with a surge in demand on a cold winter's
:12:07. > :12:11.night, is due to drop to historically low levels in 2016,
:12:12. > :12:16.according to Ofgem. Normally at around 15%, capacity could drop to
:12:17. > :12:22.2% after the next election and that could lead to a surge in the sale of
:12:23. > :12:24.candles. Now where is that light switch?
:12:25. > :12:32.Energy Secretary Ed Davey, joins me now. Oh, we have found the light
:12:33. > :12:38.switch! The gap between a peak winter demand and generating
:12:39. > :12:44.capacity could possibly reach 2% next winter or the winter after. We
:12:45. > :12:49.will keep the lights on, that is for clear. When we came to power, energy
:12:50. > :12:53.investment had been relatively low. The Labour Party had failed to deal
:12:54. > :12:59.with the energy deficit. From day one we have been pushing up
:13:00. > :13:05.massively. Investment has been 8 billion a year. Last year was a
:13:06. > :13:11.record. Spare capacity is now heading to 2%. Why are you allowing
:13:12. > :13:13.it to get that no? Because we have been increasing investment
:13:14. > :13:18.massively, last was a record level, we will be able to keep the lights
:13:19. > :13:21.on. Some of the figures you are showing suggests we are not doing
:13:22. > :13:27.anything. We have not only done enough in our last three years, we
:13:28. > :13:32.have put in measures to stimulate huge amounts of extra investment. We
:13:33. > :13:36.have the healthiest pipeline investment in our history. We will
:13:37. > :13:40.come onto investment in a minute. None of that change is the fact that
:13:41. > :13:49.we will be close to 2% next winter or the winter after that. We have
:13:50. > :13:55.one major power station shut down, or a cold winter away from having
:13:56. > :13:59.major problems with energy supply. It is still 2%. Let me explain. The
:14:00. > :14:04.figures assume we are not doing anything but we are doing something.
:14:05. > :14:08.Look at the National Grid. They are able to bring in energy from
:14:09. > :14:13.interconnector is because we are connected up to Europe. They are
:14:14. > :14:19.able to create a reserve so if we get to problems, they will have a
:14:20. > :14:25.mothballed plant they can bring on. You have not agreed with anybody on
:14:26. > :14:31.that. The decision was taken last July. But no supplier has agreed to
:14:32. > :14:38.under mothball its plant. We would not expect them to do that yet. Our
:14:39. > :14:43.plan is in place. On time, on schedule, as we already thought it
:14:44. > :14:48.would be. But you have not got a single agreement with a power supply
:14:49. > :14:56.who has mothballed plant to on the ball it. We did not expect to. Our
:14:57. > :15:00.plan is in me National Grid will do an election to allow those plants to
:15:01. > :15:03.come on. There is a huge amount of interest. There are gigawatts of
:15:04. > :15:06.power that can come in to come on. There is a huge amount of interest.
:15:07. > :15:11.There are gigawatts of power that can come into that auction and we
:15:12. > :15:15.are not other measures we can take and that is just in the short term.
:15:16. > :15:20.We have a plan for the medium-term. We will be running the first auction
:15:21. > :15:35.for new capacity. The final decision will be taken and we have learned
:15:36. > :15:37.lessons from what they do in North America and other European countries
:15:38. > :15:40.so we can stay minute mothballed plants and new plants to be built. I
:15:41. > :15:50.am absolutely clear there is not a problem. You only build 9000
:15:51. > :15:56.megawatts of new capacity from 2011-13. You have closed almost
:15:57. > :16:01.22,000 megawatts. Why would you be so cavalier with a nation's power
:16:02. > :16:03.supply? The last Government was cavalier because we knew those
:16:04. > :16:07.figures are happening because we've known for a long time a lot of power
:16:08. > :16:11.plants were coming to the end of their life, coal power plants,
:16:12. > :16:16.nuclear power plants, and we had to increase the rate of investment, but
:16:17. > :16:22.we... That shows clearly you are closing twice as much, you have to
:16:23. > :16:26.date, closed twice as much as you have opened, hence the lack of spare
:16:27. > :16:30.capacity. We knew a lot of them are coming back for the last Labour
:16:31. > :16:33.Government knew. We have increased the new so that's increasing
:16:34. > :16:38.significantly, far faster than under the last Government but also
:16:39. > :16:42.remember, you were very wrong at the beginning of your clip, margins at
:16:43. > :16:49.15% are very own usual. They are historically high. The average
:16:50. > :16:54.margin was 25%. That was wasting a huge amount of money. But since
:16:55. > :16:57.privatisation, we've had margins between 5% and 10%. Normally, high
:16:58. > :17:04.margins historically, which is costly. Now we will have
:17:05. > :17:08.historically low margins. People have to pay for that, so we make
:17:09. > :17:12.sure the lights stay on, we have a short-term policy I have described
:17:13. > :17:16.to you, and medium-term policy and a long-term policy. The long-term
:17:17. > :17:38.policy comes huge investment between nuclear and optional,
:17:39. > :17:44.policy comes huge investment between on. Ofgem, Independent, says the
:17:45. > :17:49.chance of blackouts by 2016 has increased fourfold under your watch.
:17:50. > :17:57.What they say, if you read the report, if we did nothing, they
:17:58. > :18:02.would be problems. But we have been working with Ofgem. We have been
:18:03. > :18:07.working with National Grid, and we have agreed that there will be a
:18:08. > :18:10.reserve capacity which can come on if we get to the peak for the Best
:18:11. > :18:17.not just on the supply side but demand and into connectors. You talk
:18:18. > :18:20.about industry having to move to off-peak times. We say, they are
:18:21. > :18:25.prepared to that you paid for it, and it makes commercial sense for
:18:26. > :18:29.them, it's a sensible thing for the Wii will pay them to move to
:18:30. > :18:32.off-peak. You have huge diesel parks for the you talk as if that
:18:33. > :18:36.something new but it's been around for a long time for the 200 these
:18:37. > :18:41.contracts out there. We want to expand that. You have hundreds of
:18:42. > :18:47.diesel generators to click into, haven't you? There's a whole range
:18:48. > :18:54.of generators. Diesel generation, dirty fuel. There's a of mothballed
:18:55. > :19:03.gas which can come. If you look at the increase of the independent
:19:04. > :19:08.generators, many companies, a range of power companies who are building
:19:09. > :19:13.a new power station and want to build new ones. This is a healthy
:19:14. > :19:17.situation. You say you made over 100 billion new investment between now
:19:18. > :19:21.and the end of the decade to restore capacity and meet renewable
:19:22. > :19:24.targets. Now you have referred the Big Six to the competition
:19:25. > :19:28.commission, how much of that to expect to come from them? We will
:19:29. > :19:33.see what the market delivers. We have always expected independent
:19:34. > :19:40.generators to do a lot more than is happening in the past. How much from
:19:41. > :19:45.the Big Six? It's not for me to say it's going to be best from that
:19:46. > :19:50.company. The real interest is we have huge amounts of companies
:19:51. > :19:52.wanting to invest. If you look at independent analysis, they say
:19:53. > :19:56.Britain is one of the best places to invest in energy in the world. We
:19:57. > :20:00.are the worldly do in offshore wind, one of the best for
:20:01. > :20:04.renewables, one of the only countries getting nuclear power
:20:05. > :20:08.stations. Rather than the bleaker picture you're painting, the reverse
:20:09. > :20:15.is the case. We are seeing an investment renaissance. You say
:20:16. > :20:20.that. Let me give you some facts. Under this Government, only one gas
:20:21. > :20:23.plant has been under construction, only one started under your watch
:20:24. > :20:27.for the others were done under Labour. You have none in the
:20:28. > :20:30.pipeline. The Big Six has pulled back from further investment
:20:31. > :20:32.including new offshore wind investment and none of what you're
:20:33. > :20:39.talking about will come before 2020 anyway. That's simply not true. The
:20:40. > :20:43.balance reserves I've talked about, the reserve planned: Making sure the
:20:44. > :20:47.mothballed plant could come on, I capacity market incentivising new
:20:48. > :20:53.power, will happen way before 2020, so that's not true. But doesn't
:20:54. > :20:57.answer the extra capacity. You have no answer between now and the end of
:20:58. > :21:02.this decade. We have three answers. Let me repeat them for you. I said
:21:03. > :21:06.permanent, not the short-term ones you are putting in place to try to
:21:07. > :21:11.do with spare capacity. We have a short-term plan, of course, that's
:21:12. > :21:15.very sensible. Medium-term plan, auctioning for new power stations.
:21:16. > :21:18.That can lead to both mothballed plant and when you plant, permanent
:21:19. > :21:25.plant being built, and the long-term plan, to stimulator long-term
:21:26. > :21:29.investment, some of which will be built and come online way before the
:21:30. > :21:33.end of the decade. I'm afraid, it's a far rosier picture than your
:21:34. > :21:37.painting. It's also far more expensive, too. Let's look at how
:21:38. > :21:42.you are replacing relatively cheap energy with much more expensive
:21:43. > :21:49.sources of energy. Wholesale prices is ?50 per megawatt. You have done a
:21:50. > :21:52.deal with EDF, nuclear, ?92 50. You have indexed it for 30 years at 2012
:21:53. > :22:09.prices. All of that puts up our bills. First
:22:10. > :22:14.of all, the support of the low Carbon is just 4% on bills. What has
:22:15. > :22:18.been driving peoples bills over the last decade has been wholesale gas
:22:19. > :22:23.prices. No one knows what guys prices are going to be in the future
:22:24. > :22:26.-- gas prices. When you look at the Ukraine and other market indicators,
:22:27. > :22:31.many people are worried that by the time nuclear power stations come
:22:32. > :22:34.online for example, the price of gas could be significantly higher. You
:22:35. > :22:40.have indexed linked that for them by the time you get any power from
:22:41. > :22:47.this, it'll be up to ?125 per megawatt hour. The price of gas been
:22:48. > :22:52.going up far higher. Not recently. Despite Iran, Ukraine, Libya, not
:22:53. > :22:56.recently. The long-term forecast, Andrew, it's going to go higher but
:22:57. > :22:59.more importantly than that, this is an area we could disagree on but
:23:00. > :23:05.it's very important that power plants pay the cost of pollution. In
:23:06. > :23:08.those prizes, all of those prices except the wholesale out a steep
:23:09. > :23:13.price, you have those power stations paying the cost of air pollution. If
:23:14. > :23:19.gas and coal where paying the proper carbon price, you would see nuclear
:23:20. > :23:23.and renewables as competitive. It's very important that we ensure that
:23:24. > :23:27.power plants pay the cost of the pollution. When you were last on
:23:28. > :23:32.this programme to talk about this in May 2012, you said that the price of
:23:33. > :23:38.offshore wind was coming down fast. You told me it would be down by 30%
:23:39. > :23:43.in the next few years. That figure is 155, and for the deeper stuff,
:23:44. > :23:47.it's going to be ?165. That's the first year of a limit control
:23:48. > :23:54.framework which had it coming down. If you talk to many companies,
:23:55. > :24:03.Siemens had invested with their partners, ?310 million with two new
:24:04. > :24:09.factories. They are talking about lower prices because what they are
:24:10. > :24:12.saying to me is that, rather than the 30% cost reductions I talked
:24:13. > :24:18.about, I was wrong, they are targeting 40%. You said prices would
:24:19. > :24:22.come down 30% in two years for that that was 2012 and they have gone
:24:23. > :24:27.higher. I absolutely did not say that. Your exact quote was 30% in
:24:28. > :24:32.the next few years. Your exact few years. You said two years, I sell a
:24:33. > :24:37.few years. I haven't changed a single moment that you said two
:24:38. > :24:40.years, I said a few years. That's what we are projecting. They will
:24:41. > :24:45.come down. You have to invest in technology. Let me give you this
:24:46. > :24:49.example. When people invest in mobile phones to start off with,
:24:50. > :24:57.they were expensive, and they were clunky and the costs were going down
:24:58. > :25:03.for the one final question. You put the Big Six into investigation
:25:04. > :25:06.because they made a 5% return on investment and you're done a deal
:25:07. > :25:13.with EDF, nuclear power, which will guarantee them a return of 10% - 15%
:25:14. > :25:17.every year for 30 years. Doesn't that underline the shambles of your
:25:18. > :25:21.energy policy? You have mixed up two separate things. The 5% Ofgem are
:25:22. > :25:25.talking about is on the supply retail side. The percentage you
:25:26. > :25:31.quoted for EDF is in the wholesale side of two different markets. It's
:25:32. > :25:34.the same return. It's not. You are comparing apples and pears,
:25:35. > :25:40.dangerous thing to do. You have to do have a high return but in the
:25:41. > :25:48.retail market, with a 5% stake, there is less risk, says a low
:25:49. > :25:53.return. Ed Davey, I'm sorry we haven't got more time. Thank you.
:25:54. > :25:57.Have me back. We will. Whatever happened to the BNP? The far right
:25:58. > :26:01.party looked as if it was on the verge of a major breakthrough not so
:26:02. > :26:03.long ago. Now it seems to be going nowhere. In a moment we'll be
:26:04. > :26:06.speaking to the party's press officer, Simon Derby. But first
:26:07. > :26:09.here's Giles. His report contains some flash photography. For a moment
:26:10. > :26:13.in 2009 Nick Griffin and the BNP had a spring in their step, smiling at
:26:14. > :26:16.their success of winning two seats in the European Parliament. They
:26:17. > :26:20.already were the second largest party in a London council and had a
:26:21. > :26:30.London Assembly seat. Despite concerns from mainstream parties
:26:31. > :26:34.their vote was up. Our vote increased up to 943,000. Savouring
:26:35. > :26:37.success was brief that morning as anti-far right protestors invaded
:26:38. > :26:42.and egged the press conference and forced the BNP MEPs into a hasty
:26:43. > :26:44.retreat. What is more significant is that, in the years since, that
:26:45. > :26:54.retreat has been matched internally, electorally and in the minds of
:26:55. > :26:57.those who had given them that vote. For a number of years they were
:26:58. > :27:01.performing better than the UK Independence Party and other smaller
:27:02. > :27:05.parties like the Greens and respect. The problem for the BNP if they
:27:06. > :27:09.didn't make any inroads into other groups, they didn't go into the
:27:10. > :27:13.middle class, the young, they didn't go into women and ethnic minorities
:27:14. > :27:17.for obvious reasons. So the party was quickly handicapped from the
:27:18. > :27:21.outset. Not that you would have known that at the outset. In 2006 in
:27:22. > :27:24.Barking and Dagenham, the party won 12 council seats against a back drop
:27:25. > :27:27.of discontent with the ruling Labour council and Government and picking
:27:28. > :27:36.up on immigration and housing concerns in the borough. It's
:27:37. > :27:38.because of all the different nationality people moving in the
:27:39. > :27:44.area, they are taking over everything. My Nan and grandad lived
:27:45. > :27:51.there all their lives. I thought I would vote for BNP. Hopefully, yeah,
:27:52. > :27:56.they will get elected over here. When I came to Barking, Dagenham and
:27:57. > :28:00.Redbridge in 2006, the BNP with a second largest party in one of the
:28:01. > :28:04.local councils. You can even find non-white people who voted BNP. Now
:28:05. > :28:07.they have no counsellors, and even though can when you talk to people,
:28:08. > :28:12.you will find among the older white working-class population concerned
:28:13. > :28:17.that the BNP claim to represent, everyone says they are nowhere. So
:28:18. > :28:23.what happened to that about? On behalf of all the people in Britain,
:28:24. > :28:29.we in Barking have not just beaten, that we have smashed the attempt of
:28:30. > :28:36.extremist outsiders. The local Labour MP was as clear in 2010 as
:28:37. > :28:40.she is now. I always knew if we could manage to ensure that wasn't a
:28:41. > :28:43.single BNP councillor left on the council and I won my seat, it would
:28:44. > :28:47.stop the process of disintegration. But what beat the BNP here in 2010
:28:48. > :28:50.was a mobilisation of the Labour vote. And today it is not hard to
:28:51. > :28:59.find the same discontent over the same issues. It's just finding a new
:29:00. > :29:01.political home. A couple of years ago, I used to vote Labour.
:29:02. > :29:06.Obviously, they haven't done nothing around here as much now, with jobs
:29:07. > :29:11.and unemployment, and housing and stuff like that about, basically,
:29:12. > :29:16.BNP ain't around here no more. Now it's more about UKIP and I believe
:29:17. > :29:19.that these UKIP are saying are true. If I thought BNP would make the
:29:20. > :29:24.difference, I would vote but is not in the people behind them. They all
:29:25. > :29:29.get bandaged with the same brush. I'm going to vote UKIP because BNP
:29:30. > :29:34.didn't get anywhere. What they say in UKIP, with a bit of luck, they
:29:35. > :29:38.will get somewhere. It's not racist but it's just that our kids haven't
:29:39. > :29:41.got jobs. Nick Griffin's dislike of UKIP is mutual but his once fellow
:29:42. > :29:44.MEP Andrew Brons who's now left the party issued a statement to this
:29:45. > :29:53.programme saying BNP failure is closer to home post 2010. It was
:29:54. > :30:08.after that election discontent arose amongst sections of the membership.
:30:09. > :30:12.Those members who left or were thrown out by Nick Griffin had
:30:13. > :30:16.already felt let down by his appearance on Question Time. It was
:30:17. > :30:24.a national platform for the BNP, something they felt they had the
:30:25. > :30:31.right to through electoral success. This was no big breakthrough moment
:30:32. > :30:36.for Griffin, unlike it was for John Marina pen when he appeared on
:30:37. > :30:39.national television in France. He went on to mobilise a national
:30:40. > :30:42.force. Despite there being some voters tuned to their message, for
:30:43. > :30:47.the BNP, becoming such a force here has never looked quite so difficult.
:30:48. > :30:55.And Simon Derby from the BNP joins me now. Welcome to the Sunday
:30:56. > :31:00.Politics. It was not long ago you had 55 councillors up and down the
:31:01. > :31:05.land, you now have two. You are on the brink of extinction. That is not
:31:06. > :31:10.true. I have watched the film. It is very negative as I would expect. The
:31:11. > :31:15.party has faced a few problems. The main thing to bear in mind is that
:31:16. > :31:22.the issues, the problems the country faces have gone away. We won nearly
:31:23. > :31:26.a million votes in the European elections. We brought that mandate
:31:27. > :31:38.to the establishment and we were denied. Let's face it, we would --
:31:39. > :31:42.were denied any opportunity to take place in the political apparatus.
:31:43. > :31:49.You have been destroyed by a pincer movement. UKIP has taken away or
:31:50. > :31:55.more respectable voters and the EDL is better at anti-Muslim protests
:31:56. > :32:00.and street thuggery. The EDL is not a political party. I take your point
:32:01. > :32:04.about UKIP. The power structure took a look at us and so we were a threat
:32:05. > :32:10.to power. We were not making this stuff up, we meant it and they have
:32:11. > :32:16.co-opted our message. This shameless promotion of UKIP, you have evenly
:32:17. > :32:20.had him presenting the weather on this programme. That is
:32:21. > :32:26.unbelievable. That was a joke. Across Europe, in France, your
:32:27. > :32:30.sister party the National front will probably do very well. You can see
:32:31. > :32:35.the rise of the far right across Western Europe so why are you in
:32:36. > :32:46.decline? We are not far right, I reject that label. How would you
:32:47. > :32:59.describe yourselves nationalists and Patriots. Why are you in decline and
:33:00. > :33:03.other similar parties to yours are on the rise? You mentioned Barking
:33:04. > :33:08.and it is very interesting because I was involved in that campaign. What
:33:09. > :33:13.Margaret Hodge and her Labour Party did, they replaced the white
:33:14. > :33:17.indigenous population in Barking and Dagenham with Africans, that is how
:33:18. > :33:21.they won that election. For that was true, you would be doing well
:33:22. > :33:25.elsewhere. You have now got a leader who is declared bankrupt and your
:33:26. > :33:33.party is heading for bankruptcy. No, it is not. It is over. You would
:33:34. > :33:38.like that. What I would like is irrelevant. Your membership is in
:33:39. > :33:44.deep decline. All parties have highs and lows. In 2009 they said it is no
:33:45. > :33:53.way you will win any seats in the European election. We did. And then
:33:54. > :33:57.you lost them. Parties win and lose seats. The Lib Dems will be
:33:58. > :34:06.annihilated. You deny you are far right. People used to say the BNP
:34:07. > :34:13.were neo-Nazis. Then Nick Griffin appeared with Golden Dawn. They are
:34:14. > :34:19.not neo-Nazis, they are Nazis. It is part and parcel of being in
:34:20. > :34:26.politics. You have to appear with them? Of course we do, we have to
:34:27. > :34:30.speak to ordinary people. I am perfectly happy speaking to you at
:34:31. > :34:35.the BBC, the BBC have a terrible reputation but I am happy to be
:34:36. > :34:40.here. Mr Griffin has asked me, when will the BBC apologised for trying
:34:41. > :34:45.to put him in prison twice, merely for exposing a Muslim scandal. Why
:34:46. > :34:53.can't Nick Griffin appear on TV and self? He would not appear. He was in
:34:54. > :35:00.Syria. He literally flew out to Damascus and prevented a war. We
:35:01. > :35:05.decided we would not interfere in Syria. The BBC never covered that.
:35:06. > :35:08.Please do not make out we are just an ordinary political party you
:35:09. > :35:15.cover like everybody else. It is completely different. All the signs
:35:16. > :35:20.are, membership, performance at the polls, performance at elections, the
:35:21. > :35:24.problem with your leadership is you are now going the way of the
:35:25. > :35:30.National front, heading for oblivion. As I said to you before,
:35:31. > :35:33.that may be the case, if all the problems we had not highlighted and
:35:34. > :35:40.how we got a huge vote so many years ago, six years ago now, five years
:35:41. > :35:44.ago, in 2009, if they were not around. These things are only going
:35:45. > :35:48.to get worse. We are looking at a prototype Islamic republic that is
:35:49. > :35:52.going to be set up in this country. That will lead to huge problems.
:35:53. > :35:56.Only the British National Party are prepared to say that and deal with
:35:57. > :36:02.it. Word leaked out that I was doing this interview with you before the
:36:03. > :36:06.weekend. Isn't it a sign of how irrelevant you now are that not a
:36:07. > :36:11.single person has turned up at New Broadcasting House this morning to
:36:12. > :36:16.protest? Used to be hundreds would turn up when we said the BNP were
:36:17. > :36:19.on. That is the left for you, they put the clocks forward and they
:36:20. > :36:22.could not be bothered to get out of bed. I think they are still in bed.
:36:23. > :36:26.Thank you. You're watching the Sunday Politics.
:36:27. > :36:31.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now for Sunday
:36:32. > :36:39.Politics Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes, the
:36:40. > :36:45.Hello. On the Sunday Politics Wales, the health minister Mark Drakeford
:36:46. > :36:50.tells me about his plans for public health, and public toilets. Labour
:36:51. > :36:55.leader Ed Miliband says the Welsh NHS is on the right track. And would
:36:56. > :37:01.building thousands of new homes in Gwynedd and Anglesey be a disaster
:37:02. > :37:04.for the Welsh language? The NHS is much improved since
:37:05. > :37:08.devolution, so says the Labour Party. But First Minister Carwyn
:37:09. > :37:11.Jones told the party's Welsh conference yesterday that it must
:37:12. > :37:18.hold up its hands to some failings, including unacceptable examples of
:37:19. > :37:22.poor care. Well, Ed Miliband has heard a thing or two about the Welsh
:37:23. > :37:25.NHS. David Cameron regularly uses allegations of poor standards to
:37:26. > :37:30.attack Labour in the House of Commons. Mr Miliband also spoke to
:37:31. > :37:33.the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno yesterday, and afterwards
:37:34. > :37:42.the Labour leader spoke to our political editor Nick Servini.
:37:43. > :37:47.Ed Miliband, thank you for your time. We have just caught you after
:37:48. > :37:53.your speech. I want to start about -- want to talk to about the NHS.
:37:54. > :37:58.David Cameron talks about the Welsh NHS all the time, so let's talk
:37:59. > :38:04.about it. You acknowledge there were challenges, particularly with early
:38:05. > :38:08.diagnostics, care that elderly people, is that an acknowledgement
:38:09. > :38:14.there are problems with parts of the Welsh NHS? It is an acknowledgement
:38:15. > :38:19.that there are big challenges. There are big challenges that need to be
:38:20. > :38:24.met. We have an NHS in Wales that is underfunding pressure partly because
:38:25. > :38:28.of the fact that the Welsh budget is being cut by a significant amount. I
:38:29. > :38:36.think these are challenges that Carwyn Jones and Mark Drakeford take
:38:37. > :38:41.seriously. But in cancer treatment, there are positive stories. But
:38:42. > :38:47.there are areas, in diagnostics, for example, more money is being put in
:38:48. > :38:50.because of the challenges. The point about David Cameron is he wants to
:38:51. > :38:54.use the Welsh NHS so as not to talk about the English NHS, where he has
:38:55. > :38:59.done this huge top down reorganisation which nobody wanted,
:39:00. > :39:03.and he promised he wouldn't do. There are issues, and are no Carwyn
:39:04. > :39:06.Jones and Mark are working on it. David Cameron talks about the Welsh
:39:07. > :39:13.NHS because a lot of people are concerned about it. At Westminster
:39:14. > :39:18.level, you can't be happy that there is ammunition in Wales is being used
:39:19. > :39:22.to attack you and what you could conceivably do to an English NHS.
:39:23. > :39:28.What I would say is let's look at the record of the last Conservative
:39:29. > :39:33.government. When they were running the NHS in Wales, there were waiting
:39:34. > :39:38.times of two years for operations. I read don't think anybody in Wales is
:39:39. > :39:42.saying we need the Tories back running the NHS. People know there
:39:43. > :39:45.are challenges, people know that Carwyn Jones has acknowledge there
:39:46. > :39:49.are challenges, and here is seeking to sort them out. What people don't
:39:50. > :39:54.like is the idea of the Tory party chairman coming to Wales and saying,
:39:55. > :39:59.we want to target Wales, not to win votes in Wales but somehow try and
:40:00. > :40:02.use Wales for wider political purposes. I don't think that is what
:40:03. > :40:06.the people of Wales want to see, that isn't how we should conduct our
:40:07. > :40:11.politics. This is part of a big fight back from Labour this weekend.
:40:12. > :40:16.Shouldn't you have done this two months ago? There is this oil tanker
:40:17. > :40:23.of a narrative now that Wales is failing in many services. It seems
:40:24. > :40:26.you have been slow off the mark. I think we have a proud record in
:40:27. > :40:31.terms of some major achievements in Wales. If you look at the
:40:32. > :40:35.unemployment in Wales, lower Jewish and fees, keeping the educational
:40:36. > :40:39.maintenance allowance, better care for kids, flood defences, there is a
:40:40. > :40:44.good story to tell and we will tell it. But I think it is also fair to
:40:45. > :40:48.say that Carwyn has been focused on how to meet the challenges that
:40:49. > :40:52.remain in Wales. That is why he is such a good First Minister, because
:40:53. > :40:57.he is concentrating on meeting those challenges. The Tory party want to
:40:58. > :41:02.use Wales to try to make wider political points, not to help the
:41:03. > :41:09.people of Wales. Have you spoken to and Clywd? Yes, a number of times.
:41:10. > :41:14.Her concerns need to be taken seriously about the NHS. She had a
:41:15. > :41:18.particular personal experience, but it goes wider than that. Her issue
:41:19. > :41:22.is about care for older people, which is something we take
:41:23. > :41:27.seriously, and wider issues about mortality rates, so she has an
:41:28. > :41:32.important and valid point of view. Carwyn Jones publicly criticised
:41:33. > :41:36.over what she's doing. And there is a sense when you speak to party
:41:37. > :41:41.members a frustration and damage that she is doing to the party. Was
:41:42. > :41:45.he right to do that? I am not going to get into that debate. I
:41:46. > :41:50.understand there is difference is of opinion. I know from my
:41:51. > :41:54.conversations with Carwyn, he takes very seriously the issues that Anne
:41:55. > :41:59.razors because he knows the importance of having an NHS working
:42:00. > :42:06.for the people of Wales. Her concerns are being taken seriously
:42:07. > :42:13.both bike Carwyn and Mark Drakeford. Further devolution pals, you touched
:42:14. > :42:20.on it briefly, and you talked about a kind of tidy up and to make it
:42:21. > :42:24.clearer about who has got which power. -- further devolution
:42:25. > :42:30.powers. What about something more concrete which has been
:42:31. > :42:36.recommended, policing. You in favour of devolving? I'm in favour of
:42:37. > :42:40.talking about it. Let's look at the reserve powers models. We had a
:42:41. > :42:44.situation sometime back where the Conservative government was going to
:42:45. > :42:47.court to try to stop the Welsh government protecting their wages of
:42:48. > :42:51.agricultural wages through the agricultural wages board in Wales.
:42:52. > :42:56.We don't want that to happen. It is a sign of our trust in the Welsh
:42:57. > :43:01.Assembly government and in the model of devolution. We say we will move
:43:02. > :43:05.to the reserve powers in Wales that we have in Scotland. It is an
:43:06. > :43:09.important change, it will be welcomed by people as a sign that
:43:10. > :43:15.devolution is working, and it will add confidence to the people of
:43:16. > :43:18.Wales and to the Labour Party. Reform of the Barnett formula, the
:43:19. > :43:22.financial settlement that money comes to Wales and Scotland and
:43:23. > :43:30.Northern Ireland from Westminster. You appear to have a problem. You're
:43:31. > :43:38.the leader in Scotland, key wants to keep it, -- the data in Scotland
:43:39. > :43:44.wants to keep it, Carwyn Jones doesn't. What is going on? It has
:43:45. > :43:48.different impact on different parts of the country. It has served us
:43:49. > :43:52.well, but we have got to look as we did in our last general election
:43:53. > :43:55.manifesto at the specific issues Wales has in relation to this
:43:56. > :44:01.formula in relation to the funding. The Welsh Assembly government,
:44:02. > :44:04.Carwyn feels that the formula has a particular impact on Wales, which I
:44:05. > :44:10.understand, which is something we will look at. We have a review of
:44:11. > :44:14.public spending going on. I think the formula can continue to serve
:44:15. > :44:23.us, we have to look at Wales. So, a review of the formula? Know, the
:44:24. > :44:28.specific needs that Wales has and -- no, the specific needs that Wales
:44:29. > :44:32.has needs to be looked at. In terms of the context of all those attacks
:44:33. > :44:38.on Labour and the Welsh government, is this a party under siege? No,
:44:39. > :44:42.absolutely not. This is a party delivering for the people of Wales,
:44:43. > :44:45.and delivering on so many things that matter, like a implement,
:44:46. > :44:54.education, there's bread and butter issues. -- like unemployment. I met
:44:55. > :45:00.a young man yesterday who has been but back to work, and on some of
:45:01. > :45:06.these key issues, we have lessons to learn. This is a party moving
:45:07. > :45:08.forward, which has confidence about the European elections and the next
:45:09. > :45:12.general election. You heard Ed Miliband talk about
:45:13. > :45:15.pressure on the NHS. So as part of an effort to keep us healthy, and
:45:16. > :45:18.keep us out of the doctor's surgery, the Welsh government will publish a
:45:19. > :45:22.Public Health white paper on Wednesday. It'll include a proposal
:45:23. > :45:25.to force councils to make sure there are enough public toilets available.
:45:26. > :45:28.Back in Llandudno, Health Minister Mark Drakeford told me about his
:45:29. > :45:32.plans, and about how Labour responds to the political pressure on its
:45:33. > :45:36.record. Toilets for use by the public is a
:45:37. > :45:40.genuine public health issue in Wales. When I chaired the Health
:45:41. > :45:43.Committee in the Assembly, we conducted a one- day enquiry into
:45:44. > :45:47.the public health impact of not having sufficient toilets for use by
:45:48. > :45:48.the public. We received a tremendous response, particularly from
:45:49. > :45:54.organisations representing older people. We know that if people are
:45:55. > :45:57.not confident that they will have the facilities they need, then it
:45:58. > :46:02.has a distorting effect on their lives. They stay at home when they'd
:46:03. > :46:07.like to go out, they don't take tablets they need to take in order
:46:08. > :46:09.to be able to go out. And, for older people, people with some mental
:46:10. > :46:13.health conditions, people with young families and children, a fact they
:46:14. > :46:17.need to be confident that there are proper facilities that they can use,
:46:18. > :46:23.that they want to be out in our society is a genuine public health
:46:24. > :46:27.issue. If public toilets are so important, then why not provide the
:46:28. > :46:30.money to keep them open? Because that is the reason they close,
:46:31. > :46:34.councils can't afford them. In an age of austerity, the answer simply
:46:35. > :46:38.cannot be to find more money for it. What we have to do is be more
:46:39. > :46:41.imaginative in the way we think about this. And you'll see in the
:46:42. > :46:44.White Paper we don't talk about public toilets. We talk about
:46:45. > :46:47.toilets for use by the public. And what will expect local
:46:48. > :46:50.authorities... What is the difference between the two? The
:46:51. > :46:53.difference is that there are large numbers, we think, of potential
:46:54. > :46:56.facilities that are not thought of as public toilets but which are
:46:57. > :46:59.toilets provided by the public purse which we believe local authorities,
:47:00. > :47:02.planning properly, will be able to make more of so that people
:47:03. > :47:05.understand that if there is a toilet available in the leisure centre, in
:47:06. > :47:09.their community Centre, in a library, in an arts centre, all of
:47:10. > :47:12.which are being paid for by the public purse, those are toilets
:47:13. > :47:16.available for use by the public. But we know that older people are
:47:17. > :47:22.nervous of going into those places in case they are somehow challenged.
:47:23. > :47:25."What are you doing in here? You shouldn't be doing this." Well, we
:47:26. > :47:29.know that isn't the case. And we want local authorities to plan for
:47:30. > :47:32.exactly that. There are other things in the White Paper, I expect. We
:47:33. > :47:36.know what the government's position is on the minimum pricing of alcohol
:47:37. > :47:39.and last time on the Sunday Politics, you told us your opinion
:47:40. > :47:43.of e-cigarettes. What else can we expect to see in your White Paper?
:47:44. > :47:46.Well, I have been very keen that we have a White Paper which is
:47:47. > :47:49.intensely practical, which looks at measures, practical things that we
:47:50. > :47:53.can do, across that great swathe of things that make such a difference
:47:54. > :47:55.to future health. So, that includes smoking, it includes e-cigarettes,
:47:56. > :48:01.it includes alcohol, it includes obesity, but there will be other
:48:02. > :48:05.things in the White Paper as well. Our aim is to take practical action,
:48:06. > :48:10.using the legislative powers the Assembly has to improve the future
:48:11. > :48:14.health of the nation. Put it another way, your aim is to keep people
:48:15. > :48:18.healthy so they don't have to go to the doctor or to the hospital. We
:48:19. > :48:22.heard in Ed Miliband's speech that there is pressure on the NHS and
:48:23. > :48:27.challenges for the Welsh government. You had a lot of criticism from your
:48:28. > :48:31.opponents. Is that justified criticism? I've never argued that
:48:32. > :48:36.everything is perfect in the Welsh NHS. Nor that there are things that
:48:37. > :48:41.we work very hard at everyday with staff in the service to do better in
:48:42. > :48:45.the future. But what Ed Miliband was referring to was that cynical,
:48:46. > :48:48.deliberate... Organised effort by the Conservative Party in London,
:48:49. > :48:55.not simply to attack the NHS, not to attack Welsh Labour, not to attack
:48:56. > :48:58.even a Welsh Labour government. But as Grant Shapps, the Conservative
:48:59. > :49:03.Chairman, said, when he was here in Wales, to attack Wales as part of
:49:04. > :49:08.their election strategy. And that's absolutely not acceptable to us.
:49:09. > :49:13.It's not acceptable to people who work in the health service. And it's
:49:14. > :49:17.certainly not acceptable to people who rely on the services it provides
:49:18. > :49:20.every single day. But they now say, hang on, you're trying to describe
:49:21. > :49:24.this as a war on Wales because you don't want to defend your record.
:49:25. > :49:28.Because look at the waiting times. And you don't have a record to
:49:29. > :49:31.defend. I am absolutely happy to defend our record. The standard
:49:32. > :49:35.waiting time in Wales, from referral to treatment, is 11 weeks. Contrast
:49:36. > :49:40.that when the Tories were in power in Wales. They couldn't even manage
:49:41. > :49:43.an 18 month waiting time target. We can defend our record because our
:49:44. > :49:46.record in Wales is one of steady investment, steady improvement, and
:49:47. > :49:51.meeting the needs of the Welsh public. What we will not do is allow
:49:52. > :49:57.our opponents to portray the exceptional as the typical. To point
:49:58. > :50:01.to the few failings, which appear in any organisation, which we are
:50:02. > :50:05.determined to put right. And to make those failings appear as though they
:50:06. > :50:09.tell the story. When what we know is that every single day right across
:50:10. > :50:14.Wales the NHS does amazing good in the lives of the Welsh people. Mark
:50:15. > :50:18.Drakeford, thank you very much. Thank you.
:50:19. > :50:21.Nick Servini our political editor is still at the Welsh Labour conference
:50:22. > :50:33.where delegates have this morning heard from shadow Welsh Secretary
:50:34. > :50:37.Owen Smith. What did he say? Well, he has just finished speaking. The
:50:38. > :50:42.delegates have been pouring out of the auditorium. We were promised
:50:43. > :50:46.something meaty in terms of the constitutional settlement and we got
:50:47. > :50:52.something. We got a much clearer idea of what it would mean if Labour
:50:53. > :50:56.won the next general election. What and Smith said was that he would
:50:57. > :51:01.push, subject to fairer funding, which I will talk about in a minute,
:51:02. > :51:03.and a referendum, following a model that has been proposed by the
:51:04. > :51:12.Scottish Labour Party which would give Welsh government of 15p in the
:51:13. > :51:16.pound on income tax. The crucial bit is there is already a model of
:51:17. > :51:20.income tax that is in the process of being devolved. It is a rigid
:51:21. > :51:23.structure meaning any changes of any of the bands have to be mirrored
:51:24. > :51:29.right across the different bands. Under this proposal, there would be
:51:30. > :51:33.leeway for a Welsh government to increase the top rate of income
:51:34. > :51:40.tax. So, in theory, the Welsh government could save that they
:51:41. > :51:48.could reintroduce the 50p top band tax on income. A couple of things to
:51:49. > :51:51.say. Firstly, it depends on what a future Labour government would do on
:51:52. > :51:56.fairer funding from the allocation from Westminster. Ed Miliband, when
:51:57. > :52:01.I spoke to him earlier, he said they would look at this. He said there
:52:02. > :52:06.would be no major commitment to do that. Also, Owen Smith, in a way,
:52:07. > :52:09.putting a brake on some of the expectations by saying it is not a
:52:10. > :52:17.priority for them to change income tax at the moment. And the message
:52:18. > :52:21.from him is that if Labour was to win the next general election, there
:52:22. > :52:26.would be some powers but it would only go so far. In a radio interview
:52:27. > :52:32.this morning he was talking about while devolution may evolve, he said
:52:33. > :52:38.we are approaching the endgame in terms of the devolution process.
:52:39. > :52:42.Something in Carwyn Jones speech struck me yesterday, when he
:52:43. > :52:45.described the situation of the Tory attacks on his records as Wales
:52:46. > :52:52.versus Conservative Central office, do you get the sense that his troops
:52:53. > :52:58.in Llandudno like his fighting talk was Mac it was very striking. --
:52:59. > :53:01.like his fighting talk? It was very striking. It is a two horse fight
:53:02. > :53:05.here between the Labour and Conservatives. And I get the
:53:06. > :53:11.impression they are happy for it to be that way. The Lib Dems, Plaid
:53:12. > :53:16.Cymru and UKIP, the danger for them is they will be edged out of this
:53:17. > :53:20.debate in the general election campaign during the next year. In
:53:21. > :53:25.terms of the strategy we have seen from Carwyn Jones and Ed Miliband
:53:26. > :53:29.this weekend, there were easy elements and hard elements. The hard
:53:30. > :53:35.bit, and it will be interesting to see to what extent Carwyn Jones
:53:36. > :53:38.admitted to problems in the NHS. If you didn't do that, he would risk
:53:39. > :53:42.the accusation he is in denial. If there is too much, he gives
:53:43. > :53:48.ammunition to the political opponents. He talked about problems
:53:49. > :53:51.with diagnostics, problems with complacency in senior management,
:53:52. > :53:55.and problems with the complaints system. That is further than he has
:53:56. > :54:00.ever gone before in terms of admitting some of the problems in
:54:01. > :54:04.the NHS. The easy bit, and you are here yesterday to hear a lot of
:54:05. > :54:08.this, is this scrap they are building and gearing up for with the
:54:09. > :54:12.Conservatives. In a fortnight, we have the Welsh Conservatives
:54:13. > :54:17.conference, an opportunity for them to fight back. But it is a real
:54:18. > :54:21.sense of satisfaction, I think, from the Labour Party members that this
:54:22. > :54:25.is the terms of the battle ahead for the next year. Good to talk to you,
:54:26. > :54:28.thank you for joining us. Opponents to a blueprint for more
:54:29. > :54:32.housing across Gwynedd and Anglesey say it could be disastrous for the
:54:33. > :54:35.Welsh language. Campaigners say proposals to build 8,000 homes in
:54:36. > :54:38.the two counties overestimate the local need for housing. Gwynedd
:54:39. > :54:41.Council's leader says they're balancing the need for affordable
:54:42. > :54:50.homes with protection for the language. Bethan Lewis has more.
:54:51. > :54:54.Making sure there's enough housing available is one of government's
:54:55. > :55:00.basic functions. But questions about where new houses are located are
:55:01. > :55:04.often hugely controversial. Here in Penrhos Garnedd in Bangor, there has
:55:05. > :55:09.been a lot of opposition to two new proposals to build new homes. The
:55:10. > :55:14.work's already started on this site with 250 new houses are being built.
:55:15. > :55:21.At the moment, a plan is being considered to build a further 360
:55:22. > :55:24.new homes on a site nearby. The concerns raised here about the
:55:25. > :55:27.impact on local services and on language are the big issues in a
:55:28. > :55:32.wider debate in Gwynedd and Anglesey about future housing needs.
:55:33. > :55:38.Yesterday, Cymdeithas yr Iaith, the Welsh language society, held a rally
:55:39. > :55:41.in Caernarvon. They say that plans for 8,000 new houses for their two
:55:42. > :55:45.counties over the next decade will damage the language. They question
:55:46. > :55:51.the need for and affordability of the housing for local people. And
:55:52. > :55:56.fear it'll be taken up in large part by people moving into the area. The
:55:57. > :56:02.people who are moving, who do not speak Welsh, will probably not learn
:56:03. > :56:05.Welsh. And we've seen over the past ten years with the results of the
:56:06. > :56:11.last census that the number of Welsh speakers in Gwynedd have gone down
:56:12. > :56:14.markedly. And with more and more housing being built for people who
:56:15. > :56:18.move in from outside the area, that is only going to have a bigger
:56:19. > :56:22.impact and put more pressure on the Welsh language. Every local
:56:23. > :56:25.authority has to draw up a local development plan, setting out how
:56:26. > :56:31.many new homes are needed and where they should be located. Gwynedd and
:56:32. > :56:35.Anglesey's plan is a joint one over a 15 year period. At the moment,
:56:36. > :56:39.they're planning for 8,400 extra homes.
:56:40. > :56:44.In Gwynedd, the council says that a closer look suggests there will be
:56:45. > :56:52.far fewer new-builds than opponents suggest. The overall figure for
:56:53. > :56:55.Gwynedd alone is 4,700 homes. But the council says over 1,800 have
:56:56. > :57:00.already been built or have been given planning permission. And a
:57:01. > :57:05.further 1,000 will be provided by converting or updating existing
:57:06. > :57:08.buildings in the large towns. That means, they say, that new land is
:57:09. > :57:13.needed for fewer than 2,000 new homes. Gwynedd's council leader from
:57:14. > :57:18.Plaid Cymru argues they are sensitive to concerns about the
:57:19. > :57:22.language. If something like 200 or so homes, new homes a year, which is
:57:23. > :57:25.not a substantial figure, and, I think, actually, we are aiming to
:57:26. > :57:28.strike the balance between meeting the housing need and making sure
:57:29. > :57:39.that we don't upset that balance of the linguistic, social and economic
:57:40. > :57:44.make-up of our communities. But there are concerns within the Plaid
:57:45. > :57:46.Cymru group on the council. In a letter to colleagues, one Plaid
:57:47. > :57:49.Cymru Parliamentary candidate said she feared it could cost the party
:57:50. > :57:57.politically and could endanger holding on to the their seats. That
:57:58. > :58:01.is not my opinion. And I think that is based on evidence of what I hear
:58:02. > :58:04.on a daily basis. People are looking for a party and members of
:58:05. > :58:11.Parliament and Assembly Members who will respond to the agenda that we
:58:12. > :58:15.face. Welsh government figures are the starting point for council's
:58:16. > :58:17.housing plans. Gwynedd and Anglesey council say they've successfully
:58:18. > :58:23.challenged the government's feud on the projected population increase in
:58:24. > :58:27.their areas. One North Wales Assembly Member says there is a
:58:28. > :58:30.wider concern about the figures. I think the biggest problem is the
:58:31. > :58:34.number of houses that the Welsh government is suggesting should be
:58:35. > :58:36.built in certain areas. And, clearly, some of the local
:58:37. > :58:40.authorities have had increased the number of houses that they are
:58:41. > :58:43.willing to build, whilst there are still some others who, in some
:58:44. > :58:48.instances, are having to go back to the drawing board. And, others,
:58:49. > :58:53.where there are still ongoing discussions. The Welsh government
:58:54. > :58:55.says the councils are able to challenge the figures but,
:58:56. > :59:00.ultimately, it's the council's responsibility to identify the
:59:01. > :59:03.housing needs of their areas. In Gwynedd, the issue's prompted
:59:04. > :59:08.protest and passionate argument on both sides. And, with two years left
:59:09. > :59:14.before the plan's finalised, that is set to continue.
:59:15. > :59:23.That report from Bethan Lewis. And that's all from us this week. We're
:59:24. > :59:28.well conference season. We've heard from Plaid Cymru and labour, next
:59:29. > :59:31.weekend, it is the turn of the Welsh Liberal Democrats who will be
:59:32. > :59:34.holding their spring conference at the University of Wales in Newport.
:59:35. > :59:35.boundaries. Sorry, run out of time. Thanks very much indeed. Andrew,
:59:36. > :59:49.back to you. Now let's get more from our
:59:50. > :59:54.political panel. If the BNP finished? They were never
:59:55. > :59:57.spectacularly successful to begin with but one of my childhood
:59:58. > :00:01.memories was a huge fuss in London about the fact that they won a few
:00:02. > :00:04.council seat on the Isle of dogs back in 1993. That was enough to
:00:05. > :00:07.cause a panic. As if they are falling from a great tit and I think
:00:08. > :00:12.the big difference with the National front in France is that they are
:00:13. > :00:15.building on decades of successful that they finished second in the
:00:16. > :00:21.presence of elections in 2002, I think. And, even in the 60s, they
:00:22. > :00:25.were versions of their politics. So they are building on a lot whereas
:00:26. > :00:33.the BNP are working with incredibly few raw materials in this country.
:00:34. > :00:39.It is interesting that the BNP does seem to be in decline in terms of
:00:40. > :00:45.its membership and financially, but in France, the far right party, not
:00:46. > :00:49.as far right as the BNP, but pretty far right, will probably do well in
:00:50. > :00:56.the second round of the French local elections. You could say the same
:00:57. > :01:02.about Golden Dawn in Greece. Parties prosper when the picture is
:01:03. > :01:05.pre-rolled for them. If mainstream parties talk endlessly about
:01:06. > :01:08.immigration, saying you cannot get a council house because it has gone to
:01:09. > :01:11.an immigrant instead of saying it is because there are not enough council
:01:12. > :01:16.houses, that creates the conditions in which the far right can thrive.
:01:17. > :01:21.We are lucky that all the members of the BNP fell out with each other. As
:01:22. > :01:27.extreme members of the far right and left do. You can see that with the
:01:28. > :01:35.comedian in France, he has got a lot of support from people on the left
:01:36. > :01:41.as well. I asked Simon Derby was here victim of a pincer movement
:01:42. > :01:52.that UKIP were taken away voters and EDL has captured the Street protest.
:01:53. > :01:55.Yes, and Giles still not mention that the Labour Party has got its
:01:56. > :02:00.act together. They got the act together in Dagenham. Margaret Hodge
:02:01. > :02:06.and Jon Cruddas did a very good job. I think UKIP would say, not a racist
:02:07. > :02:11.party but they are picking up votes from people who would once have
:02:12. > :02:17.voted BNP. But it is interesting the difference between Britain and
:02:18. > :02:25.France. Why is it that the Front Nationale came second in 2002 when
:02:26. > :02:31.they are not far right? I think they were on a five-year cycle because
:02:32. > :02:40.the next election was 2007. 2002 they came second when Jean-Marie Le
:02:41. > :02:50.Pen came second. They are not as far right as the BNP. Marine has put
:02:51. > :02:55.them -- cleaned them up a bit. Diplomatically there is a much
:02:56. > :02:59.harder vote which spreads further across the electorate in France than
:03:00. > :03:13.there is in this country. This is a much more tolerant country. If
:03:14. > :03:17.Marine Le Pen does well today, she will not win that many because the
:03:18. > :03:21.centre-right and centre-left will always gang up against terror in the
:03:22. > :03:27.second round, but it sets the tone for the European elections. It does
:03:28. > :03:31.and for the next French presidential election as well. I think what she's
:03:32. > :03:36.doing masterfully is combining a far right politics with what you might
:03:37. > :03:41.call a far left economic politics. She's not just picking up votes from
:03:42. > :03:46.xenophobes, she is picking up votes from who feel victimised from
:03:47. > :03:50.globalisation. They are people who would be voting for socialists but
:03:51. > :03:53.are put off by the current president. That is what I do not
:03:54. > :03:58.think the British far right parties have been able to do. You sort Simon
:03:59. > :04:03.Derby try to tell you that the BNP are not far right party. I think he
:04:04. > :04:06.was going to say if you look at issues of protectionism, standing up
:04:07. > :04:13.against globalisation, they are quite statist. That is where the
:04:14. > :04:18.phrase National Socialist comes from. That is why a little bit of
:04:19. > :04:22.electoral success is often a killer for far right parties. They get a
:04:23. > :04:26.few council seats and then they are rubbish. They are not getting
:04:27. > :04:29.people's bins collected so they become part of the system that
:04:30. > :04:35.people were voting against in the first place. Lets go on to the
:04:36. > :04:39.Labour Party. If you are a Labour Party supporter and you want to be
:04:40. > :04:44.cheered up, you pick up the Sunday Times where you see a poll where the
:04:45. > :04:48.leader is up to seven points. If you are Tory Lib Dem and you want to be
:04:49. > :04:54.cheered up, you pick up the Observer, the left-wing paper, where
:04:55. > :04:58.the Labour leader is still 1%. I have read in the paper that there is
:04:59. > :05:03.quite a lot of of the record briefings going on at the top of the
:05:04. > :05:08.Labour Party. Give us a sense of the mood. Clearly, they are unsettled.
:05:09. > :05:18.One pol looks OK but there has been a run of polls where there is a lead
:05:19. > :05:24.over the Tories which is closing. There are worrying number of people
:05:25. > :05:29.who are what are called the 35s and they are people who thought all the
:05:30. > :05:33.Labour Party needs to do is sit still because there are a number of
:05:34. > :05:38.Liberal Democrat voters who hate the coalition. Because the Conservatives
:05:39. > :05:42.did not get through the boundary changes they needed to win, we can
:05:43. > :05:47.sit tight and it will all be fine. What a few wise old heads are
:05:48. > :05:52.concerned about is they feel this has a feel of 1987 about it when the
:05:53. > :05:57.Labour Party was united. They had a very good leader. The leader was
:05:58. > :06:01.impressive, the party was united and then what happened? They met the
:06:02. > :06:06.British people and an election. The British people said, terribly sorry,
:06:07. > :06:10.you are not occupying the party political territory where we will
:06:11. > :06:14.vote for you. There are some people from the Blair era who say it feels
:06:15. > :06:21.a bit complacent and there may be a bit of a shock when they meet the
:06:22. > :06:25.voters. We talk about people being unsettled but Ed Miliband is not
:06:26. > :06:29.unsettled. His defining characteristic is you might call it
:06:30. > :06:32.steadiness or you might call it a lack of agility. He could not
:06:33. > :06:37.respond to the pension stuff in the budget which was thrown at him. But
:06:38. > :06:40.he's very good at separating the signal from the noise. They may
:06:41. > :06:45.think this will all change in me. The Tories may be on the back foot
:06:46. > :06:49.after the European elections. He has the ability to set the political
:06:50. > :06:57.weather. He did it with the price freeze. There is no doubt that Mr
:06:58. > :07:00.Davey would not be referring these energy companies to the competition
:07:01. > :07:04.authorities if it had not been for that speech by the Labour leader.
:07:05. > :07:08.And we read today he has come up with another policy which will be
:07:09. > :07:13.attention grabbing to cut student tuition fees. It is easy to forget
:07:14. > :07:18.that before he announced the price freeze he was in as much vertical
:07:19. > :07:25.trouble as he is now. I think the Labour poll lead will expand up to
:07:26. > :07:31.five or 6% by the summer, assuming the Tories do badly. The question
:07:32. > :07:37.is, is five or 6% enough? Nick through the analogy with 1987. This
:07:38. > :07:41.reminds me of the Conservatives in 2009/10. You have a steadily sinking
:07:42. > :07:45.poll lead, differences in what campaign they should be running and
:07:46. > :07:50.personal animosity behind the scenes. It led to them throwing away
:07:51. > :07:57.an election which seemed to be winnable. There is an important
:07:58. > :08:00.difference with the 1980s which was because you did not know when the
:08:01. > :08:06.election would be. Will it be in 87 or 88? They do not need to make up
:08:07. > :08:09.their mind until next year. What they are telling the pollsters now,
:08:10. > :08:12.we do not like this government because of course, you do not like
:08:13. > :08:18.the government. But next January or February they will be making up
:08:19. > :08:23.their minds. Is there a lot of animosity among the leading Labour
:08:24. > :08:27.figures behind-the-scenes? It must be personal or tactical because
:08:28. > :08:33.there are not big ideological differences between them, is there?
:08:34. > :08:38.Yes and no. What is striking is how little support Miliband gets from
:08:39. > :08:43.the shadow cabinet. He does not have outriders. That has been a
:08:44. > :08:47.continuous theme. Said he feels he is on his own? That they feel they
:08:48. > :08:55.do not get support from him. There was a column by Jenni Russell saying
:08:56. > :09:01.he is distant and detached. And Andrew Walmsley touched on this in
:09:02. > :09:06.the Observer. One of the divisions is Ed versus Ed. There is a terrible
:09:07. > :09:10.structural problem between those two. It is a real problem. Ed
:09:11. > :09:16.Miliband believes Ed Balls has not done enough to get economic red
:09:17. > :09:19.ability. Ed Balls believes Ed Miliband is making airy fairy
:09:20. > :09:24.speeches and it will not cut with the electorate. Neither Mr Cameron
:09:25. > :09:28.nor Mr Miller band took part in the debate which happened earlier this
:09:29. > :09:34.week between the Lib Dems and UKIP. We have got another one coming up on
:09:35. > :09:39.the BBC on Wednesday night. Let's remind ourselves of what happened in
:09:40. > :09:47.last week's debate. I will ask Nick to open the batting.
:09:48. > :09:52.We are better off in Europe... Frankly not working any more. A
:09:53. > :09:59.referendum on Europe. I agree with you. I agree with you. If you can
:10:00. > :10:09.read the small print. Pull up the drawbridge, pool drawbridge up... We
:10:10. > :10:15.have 485 million people... It is simply not true! Not true. Not true.
:10:16. > :10:23.Not true. Identical with Nick. I don't agree with Nick. Based on
:10:24. > :10:29.facts, facts, the facts, facts, the facts... Thank God we did not listen
:10:30. > :10:37.to you. The food is getting better here. Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. You
:10:38. > :10:44.have never had a proper job. Great not little England. Good night.
:10:45. > :10:49.I think it is seven o'clock BBC Two. Helen, what was the outcome of that
:10:50. > :10:54.and how do we mark our card for this week? It was not a great time for
:10:55. > :10:59.pundits. Everybody called the debate for Nick and then they said
:11:00. > :11:06.actually, we think it has gone the other way. Consensus emerged later
:11:07. > :11:09.on that Nick Clegg made a difficult argument. I think the most important
:11:10. > :11:14.thing Nigel Farage said was he distinguished out the immigration
:11:15. > :11:19.policy by saying we're not just closing day over, we want people to
:11:20. > :11:21.come, we just do not want mass EU immigration. That is an important
:11:22. > :11:26.thing for him to say to get away from the echoes of the far right. I
:11:27. > :11:34.suspect Nick Clegg will not ask us to read the small print. That was 11
:11:35. > :11:38.turn he took. It compounded his reputation for being sneaky. I
:11:39. > :11:44.slightly disagree about the pundits. I say this as someone who thought
:11:45. > :11:49.far it would win. -- Nigel Farage would win. The fact that the public
:11:50. > :11:56.disagree with you and the public favoured Nigel Farage does not mean
:11:57. > :12:01.the public were wrong. The question is, who is going to tune in for the
:12:02. > :12:08.second one? What is the answer to that? Phil Collins argument is a man
:12:09. > :12:13.who is on 8% is fantastic. It is a binary choice in this debate.
:12:14. > :12:17.Clearly they need to brush up on opposite areas. Nigel Farage needs
:12:18. > :12:20.to brush up on facts and Nick Clegg needs to brush up on the motions
:12:21. > :12:26.because he did not connect very well. Where Nick Clegg may go after
:12:27. > :12:30.Nigel Farage is when the -- when he said the EU has blood on its hands
:12:31. > :12:35.with Ukraine. He then came back to talk about the vanity of EU foreign
:12:36. > :12:39.policy and said European Union had made what was going on in Syria
:12:40. > :12:43.worse. It is one thing to say I do not think the UK should be part of
:12:44. > :12:47.the joint European foreign policy, it is part of another thing to say
:12:48. > :12:51.that Europe which will act with or without the UK is responsible for
:12:52. > :12:56.blood on the streets of Kiev and also responsible for exacerbating
:12:57. > :13:03.the Civil War in Syria. Maybe an hour is too long for Nigel Farage's
:13:04. > :13:07.shtick? That may be the case but Nick Clegg has precedence. He does
:13:08. > :13:11.that show and he has had to deal with the worst thing with dealing
:13:12. > :13:16.with what is thrown at him so he has honed his view consistently. We will
:13:17. > :13:20.see what happens in part two. That's all for this week. The Daily
:13:21. > :13:23.Politics is on BBC Two at lunchtime every day this week. I'll be here
:13:24. > :13:25.next week at the usual time of 11 o'clock. Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:26. > :13:33.it's the Sunday Politics.