:00:37. > :00:42.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being
:00:43. > :00:45.re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police
:00:46. > :00:49.custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders
:00:50. > :01:00.of the Troubles. That's our top story.
:01:01. > :01:03.He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious
:01:04. > :01:06.electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative
:01:07. > :01:08.Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.
:01:09. > :01:13.And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best
:01:14. > :01:20.Later in the programme... likely to be a good
:01:21. > :01:22.Later in the programme... We start our coverage of the
:01:23. > :01:25.European elections in Wales. And the campaign against Scottish
:01:26. > :01:27.independence says keeping the UK intact is in Wales' interests.
:01:28. > :01:31.independence says keeping the UK and independence. We have a table
:01:32. > :01:38.full of Euro candidates here to debate what it means for London.
:01:39. > :01:41.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the
:01:42. > :01:44.business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be
:01:45. > :01:50.throwing metaphorical rotten eggs into the twittersphere.
:01:51. > :01:53.First this morning - Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, has spent a
:01:54. > :01:56.fourth night in police custody after he was arrested in connection with
:01:57. > :02:09.the killing of Jean McConville more than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has
:02:10. > :02:11.claimed that the arrest is politically motivated coming, as it
:02:12. > :02:15.does, during local and European election campaigns. Northern
:02:16. > :02:17.Ireland's deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, has indicated he
:02:18. > :02:20.might review the party's support for policing in the province if Gerry
:02:21. > :02:23.Adams is charged. The Jean McConville murder was one of the
:02:24. > :02:25.most notorious cases of the Troubles.
:02:26. > :02:32.The widowed mother of ten was kidnapped from her home in December
:02:33. > :02:38.1972, never to be seen alive again. The IRA denied involvement but in
:02:39. > :02:45.1999 admitted it had murdered her and several others, known as the
:02:46. > :02:47.Disappeared. Before his death, the former IRA commander Brendan Hughes
:02:48. > :02:55.pointed the finger at Gerry Adams, claiming:
:02:56. > :03:09.In April this year, either Bell was charged with aiding and abetting the
:03:10. > :03:14.murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams has always insisted he is innocent
:03:15. > :03:19.of any part in the abduction and killing all burial of Mrs
:03:20. > :03:21.McConville. We were hoping to speak to the
:03:22. > :03:25.Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, but having agreed to do an
:03:26. > :03:32.interview with us this morning, she pulled out. But we are joined from
:03:33. > :03:37.Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And
:03:38. > :03:49.the police just doing their job by questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams
:03:50. > :03:53.said publicly some time ago that he was available to speak to the
:03:54. > :03:59.police, but that is not what this is about at the moment, because what we
:04:00. > :04:03.have here is clearly evidence in our mind of political interference in
:04:04. > :04:07.what should be due process. Gerry Adams made it clear some time ago he
:04:08. > :04:13.wanted to speak to the police, it was available at any time, and yet
:04:14. > :04:17.that request was not taken up until three weeks into an election and we
:04:18. > :04:22.believe that was deliberately orchestrated by a small number of
:04:23. > :04:29.people. What evidence can you present this morning that proves
:04:30. > :04:36.that claim? The direct circumstances Gerry Adams finds himself in at the
:04:37. > :04:46.moment, take that in stark contrast when they have dealt with members of
:04:47. > :04:55.the British Army for instance... That is just circumstantial. The
:04:56. > :05:00.PSNI know that the soldiers involved in that and a number of other
:05:01. > :05:05.high-profile killings of citizens here, and not one of those people
:05:06. > :05:10.has been arrested. In fact any of the people who were interviewed were
:05:11. > :05:21.interviewed by request. There was a stark contrast, in terms of how they
:05:22. > :05:26.have dealt with the British military involving state killings. We haven't
:05:27. > :05:31.got too much time. Sinn Fein said it would review its support for the
:05:32. > :05:36.PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That sounds like political interference
:05:37. > :05:42.in the police process. It's not because we have a clear mandate from
:05:43. > :05:47.the people who elect us. Policing has been an important part of the
:05:48. > :05:53.peace process here for many years, Sinn Fein plays an important role in
:05:54. > :05:58.local policing partnerships. We negotiate to make sure we have
:05:59. > :06:05.powers transferred here to elected representatives in the north. It is
:06:06. > :06:10.a long way to go before we have policing highly accountable, and
:06:11. > :06:27.making sure they deliver a very impartial service. How will he react
:06:28. > :06:32.if Gerry Adams is charged? I am still trying to get a clear answer.
:06:33. > :06:39.If Gerry Adams is charged, will you withdraw support for the Northern
:06:40. > :06:44.Ireland police service? We view this as a serious situation and a serious
:06:45. > :06:49.ongoing situation and we will monitor how this pans out. We have a
:06:50. > :06:53.very important role to play to support the police service here. We
:06:54. > :07:00.have done consistently, worked with them on a daily basis, but we will
:07:01. > :07:04.not accept political interference by a small number of people in the
:07:05. > :07:12.police who are undermining the police. We will not accept political
:07:13. > :07:18.policing. If there was evidence, and I emphasise the word if, because we
:07:19. > :07:22.have seen none, but if there were evidence to justify Gerry Adams
:07:23. > :07:27.being charged, why should he not be charged? It is my understanding from
:07:28. > :07:33.the family of Gerry Adams that there has not been a single shred of
:07:34. > :07:42.evidence put forward. I understand that, but if there was evidence, why
:07:43. > :07:45.should he not be charged? You put that caveat yourself and then you
:07:46. > :07:51.expect me to speculate, there is no way I will do that. The fact of the
:07:52. > :07:55.matter is there hasn't been one single shred of evidence put to
:07:56. > :08:00.Gerry Adams in the last few days, in fact what has been put to him is a
:08:01. > :08:05.range of issues of newspaper cuttings, books, statements made
:08:06. > :08:07.from people, including from people who didn't want their statements
:08:08. > :08:18.released until they have died. who didn't want their statements
:08:19. > :08:25.was charged, again I emphasise the word if, does the police process
:08:26. > :08:30.fall apart? The police process is a fragile entity, it requires work and
:08:31. > :08:31.we have been saying this publicly and privately with the Irish and
:08:32. > :08:46.British and privately with the Irish and
:08:47. > :08:48.process has to be nurtured and developed. We are not out of the
:08:49. > :08:54.woods yet. From a Republican point of view we have been working flat
:08:55. > :09:02.out. I just wanted a quick answer to my question, is a yes or no? What
:09:03. > :09:07.question I asking me? Is the peace process in jeopardy? It is fragile
:09:08. > :09:13.and I am not going to have words put into my mouth but I don't want to
:09:14. > :09:20.use. It has to be worked out and nurtured. Thank you for joining us.
:09:21. > :09:25.Nick Watt, you were a Northern Ireland correspondent like myself in
:09:26. > :09:30.days gone by. Where is this going to go? It shows how challenging the
:09:31. > :09:33.peace process is because on the one hand you have the unspeakable pain
:09:34. > :09:39.of the McConville family, but you also have the danger of not having
:09:40. > :09:43.mechanisms to deal with the past. South Africa is a good example, you
:09:44. > :09:47.have to have some mechanism to deal with the past because if you don't,
:09:48. > :09:58.you are going to have, as Sinn Fein have now, someone in a police cell
:09:59. > :10:01.but you don't have the arrests of the Bloody Sunday soldiers.
:10:02. > :10:09.Paramilitary prisoners were released after two years... We have seen no
:10:10. > :10:16.action against somebody accused of the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a
:10:17. > :10:24.one-way street. We have the decommissioning of IRA weapons by
:10:25. > :10:27.the IRA, therefore destroying crucial evidence. You have these
:10:28. > :10:32.inconsistencies because you don't have an mechanism for dealing with
:10:33. > :10:36.the past, but doing that is really difficult because of the pain of
:10:37. > :10:41.real people. Don't you get a feeling that here in London they are hoping
:10:42. > :10:45.he will not be charged? Definitely because it would be nice if
:10:46. > :10:54.everything went away, but the civil case of the family is taken out of
:10:55. > :10:57.the hands of the police. You can see here a real failure in Westminster
:10:58. > :11:06.to see this as anything other than settled. David Cameron we know sees
:11:07. > :11:09.himself as a chairman. I was speaking to a friend in Northern
:11:10. > :11:14.Ireland who said he has never met Gerry Adams and I think this is very
:11:15. > :11:20.revealing. They consider this as a settled issue that will not trouble
:11:21. > :11:25.Westminster again. It would be, but the relatives of the disappeared
:11:26. > :11:28.don't want it to be settled. This points to the reality that the
:11:29. > :11:34.Belfast agreement probably had to be done, but the moral price at which
:11:35. > :11:39.it was purchased was far greater than we were willing to admit during
:11:40. > :11:43.the euphoria. For a country that prides itself by the rule of law to
:11:44. > :11:51.tolerate the early release of prisoners and former pal and
:11:52. > :11:58.military -- paramilitaries, I think was a very serious matter. As for
:11:59. > :12:02.the PSNI, it only exists because its predecessor failed to command the
:12:03. > :12:09.confidence of the nationalist community. It is a very big deal if
:12:10. > :12:21.even the PSNI ends up falling into the same trap. We have to is leave
:12:22. > :12:24.it there I'm afraid. It was the Conservative's local election
:12:25. > :12:27.campaign launch on Friday, and what did David Cameron focus on? Burning
:12:28. > :12:30.local issues like the state of our roads, rubbish collection or care of
:12:31. > :12:33.the elderly? No. It was Europe. The Prime Minister re-iterated again his
:12:34. > :12:36.promise of an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU in 2017.
:12:37. > :12:39.And it's being reported this morning that he will share a platform with
:12:40. > :12:43.Nigel Farage in a pre-general election debate. Here's what the
:12:44. > :12:51.UKIP leader had to say about the issue when he was on the Marr Show
:12:52. > :12:55.this morning with Ed Miliband. David Cameron very often makes these vague
:12:56. > :13:02.promises, then doesn't deliver afterwards. I don't think he has any
:13:03. > :13:09.intention of allowing me into any of these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband
:13:10. > :13:14.wants to debate? We have got to have the TV debates as we did join the
:13:15. > :13:18.last general election. I think David Cameron is doing everything he can
:13:19. > :13:23.to wriggle out of them. It is up to the broadcasters but whether they
:13:24. > :13:35.invite Nigel. My main desire is that the debates go ahead. We are joined
:13:36. > :13:41.now by Grant Shapps. Will he be included? The debates were not
:13:42. > :13:44.without problems, they took place during the campaign period and
:13:45. > :13:51.disrupted the flow of the campaign, taking it out of the regions, people
:13:52. > :13:54.getting to speak to the leaders so a longer period for that would be
:13:55. > :14:00.helpful. I think they are good idea and they should go ahead, but all of
:14:01. > :14:06.the negotiation about who is involved is yet to happen. So it is
:14:07. > :14:10.not a done deal that Nigel Farage will be included? That needs to be
:14:11. > :14:15.negotiated with the TV companies. The Conservatives believe we should
:14:16. > :14:24.have debates, but exactly the format and the timing, all of the -- that
:14:25. > :14:30.will be debated in the autumn, but first we have European elections,
:14:31. > :14:37.the Queen 's speech and a Scottish referendum. The local election
:14:38. > :14:46.campaign was launched on Friday. Why did you talk more about Europe than
:14:47. > :14:50.local councils? Both are important. The local elections are critically
:14:51. > :14:57.important for people, their local services. It is easy to forget, for
:14:58. > :15:00.example, that the council tax has been largely frozen since this
:15:01. > :15:05.Government came to power, a big contrast to Dublin under the
:15:06. > :15:12.previous Labour government. So why did you go on and on about Europe?
:15:13. > :15:21.Let me show you the poster used to launch your local election campaign.
:15:22. > :15:25.There it is, and in-out referendum on Europe, the day of the local
:15:26. > :15:30.elections, where is the word local? Is it in small print? I hear what
:15:31. > :15:34.you're saying, I am happy to be here to talk about the local elections.
:15:35. > :15:39.But you are right, they are on the same day, and not many people know
:15:40. > :15:43.that only by voting conservative can you get an in-out referendum. --
:15:44. > :15:52.Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver, we can, it is the same date, so
:15:53. > :15:55.people... This was the launch of the local election campaign. Why does
:15:56. > :15:59.the Prime Minister have to keep on promising something he has already
:16:00. > :16:06.promised? The actual referendum would be in 2017. He promised it
:16:07. > :16:10.before, he keeps repeating it because he knows people don't really
:16:11. > :16:14.trust him. I think it is a question of the fact that, actually, unless
:16:15. > :16:19.you remind people that the pledges there, that the only way to get an
:16:20. > :16:23.in-out referendum is to vote for it, this is a critical moment at
:16:24. > :16:29.which we need people to vote for that referendum if they want it. It
:16:30. > :16:33.is not the case, as I saw this morning, being said by Nigel Farage,
:16:34. > :16:38.that a referendum was promised before and not delivered. There was
:16:39. > :16:46.no referendum in the last manifesto. There will be in the next one. There
:16:47. > :16:54.was a cast-iron guarantee, in the Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that
:16:55. > :16:58.up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In the Sun article, he said, we will
:16:59. > :17:03.have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty
:17:04. > :17:08.had been passed before the general election, it is difficult to have a
:17:09. > :17:14.referendum on something in the past. We joined Europe in the 1970s,
:17:15. > :17:18.having a referendum on that! Look, that is about the future. Our
:17:19. > :17:23.relationship with Europe is absolutely critical. Most people in
:17:24. > :17:28.this country feel, I was not old enough to vote in that referendum,
:17:29. > :17:32.most of those who voted, they voted for a Common Market, that is not
:17:33. > :17:40.what we have got. We want to continue the work we have been doing
:17:41. > :17:43.in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do? They voted against it. We want more
:17:44. > :17:47.of those powers brought home, and we will put it to a referendum, and
:17:48. > :17:53.people will have to vote Conservative to get it. We have been
:17:54. > :17:56.looking at new research, almost two thirds of Conservative members are
:17:57. > :18:04.considering voting for UKIP, almost two thirds. I have a simple message
:18:05. > :18:13.here, which is this. If you vote for UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are
:18:14. > :18:17.likely, 30% are possible. That is why it is important we are making
:18:18. > :18:22.these arguments. If you vote for UKIP, you are voting to take us
:18:23. > :18:27.further away from returning powers to this country, further from a
:18:28. > :18:31.referendum. It is support for Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister,
:18:32. > :18:35.and he will do exactly what Labour have always done - hand away powers,
:18:36. > :18:40.and away the rebate for nothing in return, giving Europe even more so
:18:41. > :18:44.over the day-to-day affairs in Britain. Why are so many people
:18:45. > :18:48.considering voting UKIP? It is to hold your feet to the fire, they do
:18:49. > :18:53.not trust you on a referendum, so they will vote UKIP to force you to
:18:54. > :18:58.tap in your line. We have a very tough line. If I had said four years
:18:59. > :19:03.ago that this government would manage to cut the overall EU
:19:04. > :19:07.budget, would take us out of the bailout fund that Labour got us
:19:08. > :19:11.into, passing a law that no more powers can go to Europe without a
:19:12. > :19:15.referendum, if I had said that, people would say, I do not believe
:19:16. > :19:19.it will happen. Not only have we done these things, we are promising
:19:20. > :19:22.and in-out referendum, and the only way to get it is to vote
:19:23. > :19:27.Conservative. Nigel Farage has said, we can't change anything in
:19:28. > :19:32.Europe, and it is no wonder that the president of the European Commission
:19:33. > :19:37.has said, we love having these UKIP MEPs, because they don't turn up and
:19:38. > :19:43.vote, apart from when they vote against the cut in the budget. It
:19:44. > :19:47.goes beyond UKIP in your party, because this research also showed
:19:48. > :19:51.that those Conservative members most likely to vote for UKIP, they said
:19:52. > :19:55.they do not feel valued or respected by their own leadership, and they
:19:56. > :20:02.regard David Cameron as ideological eat more remote from them than UKIP.
:20:03. > :20:11.What I would say is look at that list... Let me take that step
:20:12. > :20:19.further. What people need our series solutions to serious problems. When
:20:20. > :20:24.people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will say, which one of the 40% of the
:20:25. > :20:29.MEPs who got in for UKIP last time are you voting for, the ones above
:20:30. > :20:33.left or defected, the ones have gone to jail? 40% have ended up not
:20:34. > :20:38.delivering. People have a right to know what to expect when they vote
:20:39. > :20:42.in these elections. They can look at our record at home, and this goes to
:20:43. > :20:48.the point you have raised about what we have done in Britain to get this
:20:49. > :20:51.economy back on track, recover from Labour's recession. We are prepared
:20:52. > :20:58.to take those decisions in Europe as well. Presumably, active
:20:59. > :21:04.Conservative members, they know that, so why do they not feel valued
:21:05. > :21:07.by the leadership? I spend time going up and down the country
:21:08. > :21:14.meeting Conservative members, and they are on the doorstep, last
:21:15. > :21:20.weekend 150 out in Enfield campaigning for the European and
:21:21. > :21:24.local elections... Why are they keen on UKIP? When I meet somebody who
:21:25. > :21:32.says that, not necessarily a member... Have you met members of
:21:33. > :21:41.say they will vote UKIP? No, but a vote for UKIP is... Do not do it,
:21:42. > :21:47.you will end up with Labour having more control, handing away powers to
:21:48. > :21:53.Europe. 51-year-old meeting members who say they will vote UKIP, you
:21:54. > :21:57.must be out of touch. -- if you are not meeting members. Some of your
:21:58. > :22:02.members are thinking of voting UKIP. I spend huge amount of time
:22:03. > :22:07.travelling around, I just told you about this action day in Enfield,
:22:08. > :22:12.where we had an enormous turnout. Those members were on the doorsteps
:22:13. > :22:17.pointing out that you can only get reform in Europe by voting
:22:18. > :22:22.Conservative. Labour and the Lib Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't,
:22:23. > :22:26.Conservatives will. You have not got that message across, because a
:22:27. > :22:35.YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who has the best policies? Tories 18%,
:22:36. > :22:41.Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP
:22:42. > :22:48.4. Why don't you shut up about Europe and talk about the economy?
:22:49. > :22:52.Look, on the 27th of May, we have European elections, as well as local
:22:53. > :22:55.elections. If I don't talk about the European elections, you would say
:22:56. > :22:58.what you said at the beginning about not talking about the local
:22:59. > :23:02.elections! These are serious elections, and the point I am tried
:23:03. > :23:07.to make is that the issues at stake are not peripheral, they are not
:23:08. > :23:11.unimportant. Our MEPs have been battling to cut red tape from a
:23:12. > :23:13.European level on small businesses, the same thing this government has
:23:14. > :23:16.been doing for small businesses domestic league, where for example
:23:17. > :23:23.every small business owner watching this show knows they have got ?2000
:23:24. > :23:26.back in employment announced on national insurance contributions. We
:23:27. > :23:31.are doing it at home, we are doing it in Europe, and it is important to
:23:32. > :23:45.tie that together. Ireland that Mr Cameron saying, you should stop
:23:46. > :23:55.banging on about Europe... -- I remember. This is before the last
:23:56. > :24:00.general election, as in days for the Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't
:24:01. > :24:04.win the election, and now you are only three or four points ahead, it
:24:05. > :24:11.doesn't look good for you, does it? Even then, the poll did not turn out
:24:12. > :24:15.to be what it was on the day. No, that is what happens, that is the
:24:16. > :24:18.voting intentions now! You are in a worse position than a year before
:24:19. > :24:25.the last election, which you didn't win. We are almost proving the point
:24:26. > :24:29.that you can take a clip at any moment in time, not sounding like a
:24:30. > :24:35.politician, but the only poll that matters is on the day. In just over
:24:36. > :24:40.a year's time, people will have a completely different picture to look
:24:41. > :24:45.at than these opinion polls. We have an economy from being a basket
:24:46. > :24:50.case, the great Labour recession knocking 7% of this economy, hurting
:24:51. > :24:54.every family, to a point where we the fastest-growing economy in the
:24:55. > :24:58.developed world. In a year's time, I hope people will see that we are the
:24:59. > :25:02.people who've taken the difficult decisions, got the economy to the
:25:03. > :25:06.right place, more security for you and your family. Do not give the car
:25:07. > :25:11.keys back to the people who crashed it in the first place. If I had a
:25:12. > :25:15.pound for every time I have heard that! It is clearly not getting
:25:16. > :25:23.through. On the Pfizer attempted of AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this
:25:24. > :25:27.morning for a tougher public interest test such big takeovers. Do
:25:28. > :25:34.you agree with that or not? Let me be absolutely clear, if there is any
:25:35. > :25:42.kind of joining, we are in favour of British jobs, British aren't deep,
:25:43. > :25:55.expanding our pharmaceutical sector. -- R But what Mr Mallon and wants
:25:56. > :25:59.to do with rent caps, he is anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He
:26:00. > :26:11.wants to take us back to the bad old those. -- bad old days. Should there
:26:12. > :26:15.be a bigger public interest test? We have seen some takeovers that people
:26:16. > :26:21.have criticised, but others, like Bentley, Land Rover, which have been
:26:22. > :26:26.very successful. Should there be a tougher test?! We will have tests
:26:27. > :26:30.that ensured this get-together becomes a great Anglo-American
:26:31. > :26:34.project, or it doesn't happen, but the Miliband approach is simply to
:26:35. > :26:38.be anti-business, anti-jobs and anti-job security. Grant Shapps,
:26:39. > :26:42.thank you. A challenging week for the Liberal
:26:43. > :26:45.Democrats with a local election campaign overshadowed by another row
:26:46. > :26:52.with the Conservatives about knife crime. Adam has spent the day with
:26:53. > :26:56.Nick Clegg on the campaign trail. How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on
:26:57. > :27:00.a political mini break to the Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the
:27:01. > :27:04.train. He wants to highlight what his party is doing in local
:27:05. > :27:09.government, and a personal passion of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the
:27:10. > :27:15.Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has been running a campaign to have
:27:16. > :27:20.prunes recognised as a laxative. Is that Lib Dems battling for Britain
:27:21. > :27:23.in Europe? It is not our front page manifesto commitment! It is one of
:27:24. > :27:32.many things that Graham does, he does many other things. In fact, he
:27:33. > :27:36.is a good example of an MEP who took a pioneering role, for instance, in
:27:37. > :27:43.making sure... There is the proven world, but also the crime-fighting
:27:44. > :27:46.role. -- prune. He has done work to make sure that when British
:27:47. > :27:53.criminals flee justice, we can bring them back. And he has promoted
:27:54. > :27:56.prunes! First stop, a gorgeous country pub, but it turns out
:27:57. > :28:02.everyone is a journalist or a very on message activist. Dark days,
:28:03. > :28:08.being a Lib Dem in the last few years? Strangely not. If you find
:28:09. > :28:11.you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do not get that disheartened, because
:28:12. > :28:14.you know that, locally, you are doing so well for the people that
:28:15. > :28:20.you live next door to that, actually, I find I am almost
:28:21. > :28:24.impervious to what happens on a national level. I am mayor of
:28:25. > :28:28.Cirencester. Have you taken any leadership lessons from Nick Clegg,
:28:29. > :28:34.inspiring new in your leadership of Cirencester? I think what he has
:28:35. > :28:38.demonstrated his patience. It has been a tough time, he has taken a
:28:39. > :28:43.lot of flak, and as the mayor of a town, lots of people agree with you
:28:44. > :28:48.and a fair few don't. You are a full on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime
:28:49. > :28:54.Minister, do you outrank him? I don't think so, he is in government,
:28:55. > :28:59.I am not. So our there any normal people in here? We are from
:29:00. > :29:07.Swindon, you cannot get more abnormal. Are you a big fan of his?
:29:08. > :29:11.No! What has he done wrong? I don't believe in his views at all. Where
:29:12. > :29:20.has he got to? Nigel Farage would have had a pint! At this time in the
:29:21. > :29:24.morning a copy was more appropriate. I have no time for a drink of any
:29:25. > :29:28.kind, because now we are off to look at a local traffic blackspot. This
:29:29. > :29:35.is amazing, like a Lib Dem election leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems
:29:36. > :29:39.pointing at a road. High-vis jackets! Next we had to giggle full
:29:40. > :29:44.bath, but there will be no Regency sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is
:29:45. > :29:54.taking us to an abandoned wilderness. We have just had a
:29:55. > :29:58.health and safety briefing, we have been told to look out for
:29:59. > :30:03.dive-bombing seagulls and an angry fox. That is the sort of thing Nick
:30:04. > :30:08.Clegg has to put up with. He wants to talk about the economy but he has
:30:09. > :30:13.to dodge the day's beat new story, letters leaked by a Tory suggesting
:30:14. > :30:24.that Lib Dems are soft on knife crime. Isn't that a new kind of
:30:25. > :30:28.warfare? I just think it is silly. They may think they are clever by
:30:29. > :30:38.catching some headlines but they are not helping people who worry about
:30:39. > :30:43.knife crime, like I do. We work together... Just like the
:30:44. > :30:45.Coalition! This is a co-working space where different businesses
:30:46. > :30:50.share the same office. My time with space where different businesses
:30:51. > :30:55.the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing to a close. We haven't talked about
:30:56. > :30:58.the most important story of the week, that you were voted the best
:30:59. > :31:08.looking party leader and the most likely to be a good cook. Right,
:31:09. > :31:13.this is news to me and I can guarantee you that my scepticism of
:31:14. > :31:18.opinion polls has just been confirmed. Just as well because the
:31:19. > :31:23.more serious polls don't look great for him or his party. Goodbye, and
:31:24. > :31:30.thanks for the offer of a ride home!
:31:31. > :31:34.He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce joins us now. According to Lib Dem
:31:35. > :31:41.briefing documents, you are likely to choose -- lose a big chunk of
:31:42. > :31:45.your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what would that say about a party that
:31:46. > :31:50.boasts of its pro-Europe credentials? It would be
:31:51. > :31:58.disappointing because we have the most hard-working MEPs. The worry
:31:59. > :32:01.that we have is that people think the European Parliament is not
:32:02. > :32:10.important but it takes decisions that affect us. They would be
:32:11. > :32:14.disappointing for Britain as well as the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the
:32:15. > :32:20.problem that the more you bang on about your pro-European credentials,
:32:21. > :32:24.the more you slip in the polls? I do think so, we have two weeks to go
:32:25. > :32:36.and we are campaigning extremely hard. You are forced in the polls. I
:32:37. > :32:40.can tell you there are people out there who do believe Britain should
:32:41. > :32:45.stay in the EU and they are worried that other parties will take us out.
:32:46. > :32:52.The Liberal Democrats are clear, we want to stay in, we will work for
:32:53. > :32:55.reform and do it effectively. If you lose the Liberal Democrats,
:32:56. > :33:01.Britain's influence in Europe will be weakened. Your track record in
:33:02. > :33:06.Europe shows you have been spectacularly wrong again and again.
:33:07. > :33:13.In your 2009 manifesto you said the European Central Bank and the euro
:33:14. > :33:17.have been tried and tested over ten years providing a clear picture of
:33:18. > :33:22.the benefits of Eurozone membership and that proved to be nonsense. It
:33:23. > :33:28.was nonsense everywhere. Every developed bank in the world was
:33:29. > :33:34.tried and tested and failed. Europe may not be perfect, but the question
:33:35. > :33:39.people have to decide is if we are going to leave Europe and be
:33:40. > :33:45.isolated on RM, or use our influence to reform it from inside. We have
:33:46. > :33:52.allies, you work with them, that is something the Lib Dems do better
:33:53. > :33:57.than any other parties. Your 2004 manifesto, you claim that being
:33:58. > :34:02.outside the euro would lead to job losses and reduced prosperity. You
:34:03. > :34:08.were just plain wrong, weren't you? Yes, but the reason is that to some
:34:09. > :34:16.extent the euro did not observe any rules and regulations when it was
:34:17. > :34:20.set up. That is why we never recommended Britain should join at
:34:21. > :34:28.the outset because the criteria had not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was
:34:29. > :34:33.writing to the Financial Times... Your track record is important. He
:34:34. > :34:38.wrote that the Tisch monetary policy is not all it is cracked up to be.
:34:39. > :34:46.Britain would gain greater control over its affairs by joining the
:34:47. > :34:53.euro. How wrong can he be? We have always argued that the currency had
:34:54. > :34:57.to abide by strict criteria. It hasn't done so and that is one of
:34:58. > :35:05.the reasons it has failed. We recognise there is no future for
:35:06. > :35:12.Britain joining the euro and we are not advocating it. Lets put your
:35:13. > :35:18.2010 manifesto on the screen. I didn't say it was not our long-term
:35:19. > :35:21.interest. If Europe succeeds as an entity, if the euro becomes one of
:35:22. > :35:30.the world leading currencies, there will come a point when it may be
:35:31. > :35:36.justified. In the circumstances we are in the moment, there is no
:35:37. > :35:41.recommended timescale. Let's get this right. Despite the Eurozone
:35:42. > :35:46.crisis which has cost millions of jobs, countries that were teetering
:35:47. > :35:50.on the brink of bankruptcy, the Eurozone now facing stagnation and
:35:51. > :35:56.some countries on the brink of deflation, you still won't rule out
:35:57. > :36:01.Britain joining? We are ruling it out in the foreseeable future. You
:36:02. > :36:05.can miss the point that we are working as a coalition partner in
:36:06. > :36:10.government that has secured recovery for the UK, and working as Liberal
:36:11. > :36:14.Democrats in the parliament that have cut back the European budget in
:36:15. > :36:21.cooperation with others. What would the world look like if it were right
:36:22. > :36:27.for Britain to join the euro? You have 27 states at the moment, with
:36:28. > :36:31.too many countries still struggling to meet the criteria so until you
:36:32. > :36:36.have a strong and cohesive enough single Eurozone in which all the
:36:37. > :36:42.countries can meet that criteria, Britain is better off out. So a more
:36:43. > :36:48.centralised Eurozone, that is what you would like Britain to join? No,
:36:49. > :36:51.because it can only happen by consent. Any circumstances in which
:36:52. > :37:00.any further powers would be transferred from the UK to the EU,
:37:01. > :37:04.we would support a referendum. You have just said that for the Eurozone
:37:05. > :37:08.to work, it has to be more centralised and you said if that
:37:09. > :37:13.happens, that is what Britain would join. I didn't say that, I said it
:37:14. > :37:20.would require the consent of all member states to agree to the
:37:21. > :37:24.criteria. We certainly do not envisage joining in the foreseeable
:37:25. > :37:33.future. Since you are the proud party of in, why weren't you just
:37:34. > :37:37.give us a referendum on in or out? Because it has to have a context.
:37:38. > :37:42.What David Cameron is doing is dangerous because I think the major
:37:43. > :37:46.players like Britain and France are not keen on the idea of being
:37:47. > :37:50.bullied into reforms on the instigation of just one member state
:37:51. > :37:58.which is threatening possibility to withdraw. They will have to agree to
:37:59. > :38:03.rules... Just have it now. Do you want in or out? To have a referendum
:38:04. > :38:09.against no background is to put it out of context. We are in the middle
:38:10. > :38:17.of a crisis, a year away from the general election. We have made it
:38:18. > :38:22.clear... You said we are in the middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we
:38:23. > :38:27.are not in the middle of it? What's the middle? The reality is that the
:38:28. > :38:32.Western world has gone through a deep crisis. The UK is coming out of
:38:33. > :38:37.it, the Eurozone is coming out of it. Greece have been able to borrow
:38:38. > :38:42.on the markets in recent weeks which is a sign of success. It is in our
:38:43. > :38:45.interest is the Eurozone succeeds and recovers and we should be part
:38:46. > :38:51.of it but not necessarily on the same conditions as everyone else.
:38:52. > :38:54.The Liberal Democrats work with others to deliver Britain's
:38:55. > :39:01.interests and if they are not there, their interests will be undermined.
:39:02. > :39:03.You are watching Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland
:39:04. > :39:17.now. Hello and on the Sunday Politics
:39:18. > :39:20.Wales, the campaign against an independent Scotland tells us is in
:39:21. > :39:26.Wales's interest for Scots to vote No in their independence referendum.
:39:27. > :39:34.And the European elections are a little under three weeks away. We
:39:35. > :39:37.will take a closer look at all the parties' sales pitches - starting
:39:38. > :39:41.with the Welsh Liberal Democrats. But first, that referendum on
:39:42. > :39:46.Scottish independence. On September 18, Scots go to the
:39:47. > :39:55.polls. We have already heard from the Yes campaign. Scotland's Deputy
:39:56. > :39:59.First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told us in March that Wales could be
:40:00. > :40:01.better off if Scotland left the union. What does the No camp think
:40:02. > :40:04.about that? I have been speaking to Labour's
:40:05. > :40:07.Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran, from the Better Together
:40:08. > :40:10.campaign. This week, her party leader Ed Miliband was in Cardiff,
:40:11. > :40:14.where he said the Welsh government had made a strong case for extra
:40:15. > :40:17.funding from the Treasury. We will hear more from Mrs Curran about what
:40:18. > :40:21.Labour's plans for funding reform? But first, I asked her that, with
:40:22. > :40:24.the Yes campaign catching up in the opinion poll, was the No camp
:40:25. > :40:35.struggling to get its message across? No, there has been a small
:40:36. > :40:40.shift in the opinion polls, but support for the union is well
:40:41. > :40:47.advanced in Scotland. I do think the argument we're better together has
:40:48. > :40:52.traction with the Scottish people and there are positive reasons why
:40:53. > :40:57.the Scottish people understand that. We have a strong Scottish
:40:58. > :41:00.parliament, but have the benefits of working in partnership with the
:41:01. > :41:06.other nations within the United Kingdom. You see positive reasons,
:41:07. > :41:17.but the campaign has been criticised for being too negative? As you know,
:41:18. > :41:24.the definition of scaremongering is asking Alex Salmond a question he
:41:25. > :41:27.cannot answer. But we are asking questions and of the yes campaign
:41:28. > :41:33.cannot answer man, that is not negative. I think a lot of Scottish
:41:34. > :41:42.people see there are risks for the yes campaign. By definition,
:41:43. > :41:46.encouraging people to vote no is a negative thing in the danger is that
:41:47. > :41:55.you end up skidding people, by losing your place in the European
:41:56. > :42:00.Union, you lose your pensions. I think that is true. We do have a
:42:01. > :42:06.situation where the yes campaign cannot explain what currency we
:42:07. > :42:10.would have, he was found out not to be telling the truth in relation to
:42:11. > :42:17.our membership of the European Union. All these things matter. For
:42:18. > :42:22.that to be dismissed the scaremongering does not deserve to
:42:23. > :42:26.be part of the debate in Scotland. There are very positive reasons why
:42:27. > :42:31.we should remain part of the United Kingdom. I want to work in
:42:32. > :42:34.solidarity with people in England and Wales and when we have done that
:42:35. > :42:40.in the past, we have done great things. Not least in the National
:42:41. > :42:45.Health Service, founded by a Welshman, which has a fantastic
:42:46. > :42:48.benefits in Scotland. We have a strong Scottish parliament, but we
:42:49. > :42:54.can work across the rest of the United Kingdom to our mutual benefit
:42:55. > :43:08.and that is why we are Better Together. Why does the no campaign
:43:09. > :43:12.describe itself as the underdogs? I think perhaps the reason you have
:43:13. > :43:18.outlined, because there is no doubt the Scottish government are in power
:43:19. > :43:26.and they have used all the resources, and someone whether they
:43:27. > :43:34.have improperly, but we have to make a strong case, even if we are up
:43:35. > :43:40.against the government machine. The CBI in Scotland was in difficulty
:43:41. > :43:49.about registering as a no. The house does not appear to be an order, the
:43:50. > :43:52.way done no campaign. There was a Scottish National party press
:43:53. > :43:56.release in relation to that. There is no doubt that the business sector
:43:57. > :44:03.in Scotland is raising real questions about the validity of the
:44:04. > :44:07.yes campaign. We are about to move into formal campaigning and there
:44:08. > :44:11.will be a gear change around campaigning in Scotland. When I am
:44:12. > :44:15.out and about, they want to know the facts and figures, they do not want
:44:16. > :44:20.to talk about the process issues all the time. We should be focusing on
:44:21. > :44:26.what is in the best interests of the Scottish people, our business
:44:27. > :44:29.community, the arts community, tackling poverty. I think the
:44:30. > :44:40.conclusion will be that we are Better Together. People here are
:44:41. > :44:47.wondering what it will be for people in Wales and the result of a yes
:44:48. > :44:53.fraud. Could there be a change to the Barnett formula if there is a no
:44:54. > :45:02.vote in Scotland? There will be no change to the Barnett formula. We
:45:03. > :45:06.recognise there are specific issues relating to both Scotland and Wales.
:45:07. > :45:15.But our policy is absolutely clear, we want to address the issue of
:45:16. > :45:19.money to Wales, but not to the disadvantage of Scotland. I think
:45:20. > :45:23.devolution works for Scotland, devolution works for Wales. I think
:45:24. > :45:30.both countries have done well out of that relationship. But independence
:45:31. > :45:34.is a very different journey. If you want to stop the Barnett formula,
:45:35. > :45:43.the best way is to vote for independence. We had Nicola Sturgeon
:45:44. > :45:47.on the programme seem that of Scotland where to leave the United
:45:48. > :45:51.Kingdom, Wales would be free to renegotiate perhaps a more
:45:52. > :46:00.favourable funding settlement. You cannot deny the logic of that? That
:46:01. > :46:04.is a very curious logic. The Barnett formula is only part of the union.
:46:05. > :46:09.We work together to protect and the best part of doing that is to remain
:46:10. > :46:16.part of the union. You have got separatists and nationality oh they
:46:17. > :46:22.would best work together, but I would not take their word for that.
:46:23. > :46:28.Devolution works best for our respective countries. I think it has
:46:29. > :46:33.an exciting future. We can hope for more powers to strengthen our
:46:34. > :46:40.nations. It will be a more positive journey. What is a Labour leader
:46:41. > :46:44.mean about the specific issue in relation to Wales. Does that mean
:46:45. > :46:50.more funding for devolved services in Wales? Obviously, when the
:46:51. > :46:57.manifestoes are written they will be specific about that. He does not
:46:58. > :47:02.want to resolve that at the expense of Scotland. He needs to make sure
:47:03. > :47:11.that Welsh issues are addressed. The first Minister has the job of
:47:12. > :47:15.delivering the agenda and I think when the Labour leader as the Prime
:47:16. > :47:18.Minister, he will do that for everyone in the country. He
:47:19. > :47:23.recognises conditions in Scotland and in Wales and I think, with
:47:24. > :47:30.devolution, we have an exciting journey for our nations. But we do
:47:31. > :47:33.not want to be engaged in a race to the bottom, which the separatists
:47:34. > :47:42.would have us. We are a better together. There is a belief that the
:47:43. > :47:50.Barnett formula has deprived Wales of ?300 million a year. I think that
:47:51. > :47:55.is wrong. I think the first Minister has to make sure that the Welsh
:47:56. > :48:01.minister has to make sure that the Welsh people get the Jew deserves
:48:02. > :48:05.and that is his job. Edna Levant has made it
:48:06. > :48:13.the Labour leader has made it clear that he will have a look at this
:48:14. > :48:15.issue. He will address that. Margaret Curran MP from Better
:48:16. > :48:18.Together talking about September's Scottish independence referendum.
:48:19. > :48:22.Now, before Scottish voters decide on independence, voters across the
:48:23. > :48:27.UK will go to the polls in the European elections. Between now and
:48:28. > :48:30.polling day on May 22, I will be speaking to the lead candidates
:48:31. > :48:36.standing for the Conservatives, Labour, Plaid Cymru, UKIP and the
:48:37. > :48:40.Liberal Democrats. First up are the Lib Dems, who we we
:48:41. > :48:43.will hear from in a few minutes. Before that, let us hear about six
:48:44. > :49:05.other parties contesting the European elections in Wales.
:49:06. > :49:11.Our messages it does not matter who you vote for in the selection or
:49:12. > :49:17.future elections, it does not matter. The British people are going
:49:18. > :49:22.to be a minority in our own country within a few short years and that is
:49:23. > :49:27.a big problem and we are standing in the selection to highlight that.
:49:28. > :49:48.Our main message is that the people of Wales should rule in Wales, the
:49:49. > :49:53.people of England should rule England and Scotland and Northern
:49:54. > :49:59.Ireland the same. At the moment, the parliament is run by interlopers.
:50:00. > :50:04.They are not real people. They did not go to the schools and colleges
:50:05. > :50:06.we went to. They do not understand our culture and have an agenda to
:50:07. > :50:21.destroy the British people. We want to see a fairer and more
:50:22. > :50:27.democratic Europe. We want a referendum. Many people alive today
:50:28. > :50:33.have never had a vote on whether they want to be in or out of the
:50:34. > :50:42.European Union. Mostly, we feel we must have a reformed Europe. So
:50:43. > :50:49.Europe, we would be cooler place, a less just place, a darker place. I
:50:50. > :51:03.think people realise, in their hearts, we do need Europe.
:51:04. > :51:13.We are calling for a vote from the left against the policies of the
:51:14. > :51:28.right. We are opposed to the European Union. They are policies of
:51:29. > :51:31.monetarism instead of privatisation. Our way of opposing the European
:51:32. > :51:34.Union is different to the fraudulent way the likes of UKIP and the
:51:35. > :51:56.Conservatives are putting forward. In this election, the Socialist
:51:57. > :52:03.Labour Party is the only one who is opposing free-market privatisation
:52:04. > :52:09.in you up. The European Union has undermined and sought to replace our
:52:10. > :52:15.democracy with policies which lead to mass unemployment. Other parties
:52:16. > :52:21.will carry on with this austerity and only as is looking to bring
:52:22. > :52:30.prosperity to communities across the country.
:52:31. > :52:47.The Socialist party stands for a stateless, classless, even world. A
:52:48. > :52:56.world without money. Such a system is not going to operate at a
:52:57. > :52:57.national or European level in the way things are going. We're looking
:52:58. > :53:12.the global aspect of this. Wales has never had a Lib Dem MEP.
:53:13. > :53:14.My next guest hopes to change that. Alec Dauncey is the party's lead
:53:15. > :53:23.candidate for the European elections. If you do want to change
:53:24. > :53:27.that state of affairs, you do not have the best thing to do that given
:53:28. > :53:34.the parties standing in the opinion polls. It is clearly a big
:53:35. > :53:39.challenge. We are setting out asked all about being in Europe and being
:53:40. > :53:44.in work. As I go up and down the country, I am meeting people who are
:53:45. > :53:48.responding to that. They are grateful we are a party who are
:53:49. > :53:54.standing up for that against the tide of Euro scepticism. The trouble
:53:55. > :54:04.is, you are not the only party setting out that stall. The other
:54:05. > :54:07.main parties are stressing stressing the importance of the European
:54:08. > :54:13.Union, so there is not so much to distinguish your message? I think we
:54:14. > :54:18.are much closer to the core of it. We have been pro-European for
:54:19. > :54:24.generations. I think the candidates will set out that case. The
:54:25. > :54:30.conservatives are divided as a party on this. One thing which does
:54:31. > :54:36.distinguish you is that the Labour Party has offered a referendum. Let
:54:37. > :54:41.us clean up your position. Argue against a referendum? No, we are in
:54:42. > :54:46.favour of the referendum. We are part of the act of Parliament put
:54:47. > :54:57.through that there will be a referendum. Is it a question of
:54:58. > :55:04.timing? It is about having a referendum when the opportunity is
:55:05. > :55:11.right. Plaid Cymru is an problem which does not exist in England.
:55:12. > :55:16.They are very pro-European but they are uncertain about where their
:55:17. > :55:22.place in Britain is. We are already seeing the situation in Scotland. I
:55:23. > :55:34.think Plaid Cymru have that problem as well. But Nick Clegg has lead us
:55:35. > :55:41.very clearly as a party which very much believes in Europe. You see the
:55:42. > :55:46.tide of Euro scepticism and xenophobia. Readers that coming
:55:47. > :55:53.from? I think some of the media have been demonising immigration and not
:55:54. > :56:02.recognising it is on a democratic basis. There has been years of that.
:56:03. > :56:07.At last, we are having a European election pledges on the real issues.
:56:08. > :56:16.Really, it is the first time we are having the argument. People feel
:56:17. > :56:21.justified and worried about immigration within Europe?
:56:22. > :56:25.Certainly. The last Labour government underestimated the amount
:56:26. > :56:28.of people who would come in from the likes of Poland. But immigration can
:56:29. > :56:39.be very good for the country, as well. And we know that the likes of
:56:40. > :56:46.the people from Poland working very hard, paying taxes in this country.
:56:47. > :56:49.It is how the economy builds. But if people are travelling to UKIP, there
:56:50. > :57:01.is a mood of Euro scepticism out there, it is not being whipped up by
:57:02. > :57:06.UKIP or the newspapers, that is why people are genuinely feeling? There
:57:07. > :57:11.could be a legitimate question about how we see ourselves as different
:57:12. > :57:16.countries with the United Kingdom. Do you see yourself as being in
:57:17. > :57:23.touch with how the majority of people feel? Yes, there are issues
:57:24. > :57:26.that our young people are competitive and compete in the
:57:27. > :57:35.economy. That is why we are looking at things like making sure more
:57:36. > :57:44.disadvantaged children get a good education. But that is part of the
:57:45. > :57:50.free labour market. I noticed on your twitter feed, your biography
:57:51. > :57:56.described you as a rationalist. Let's be realistic about what you're
:57:57. > :58:03.goals are in this election. You got any 11% share of the vote last
:58:04. > :58:10.time. Would you expect to do better? Given the role the party has played
:58:11. > :58:15.in some unpopular national policies? We have also taken 1 million people
:58:16. > :58:23.out of tax. There are good things we could talk about. As I said, this is
:58:24. > :58:30.a European election and we do seem to be finding it more focused on
:58:31. > :58:36.European issues. What is your goal? What are you aiming for? We are the
:58:37. > :58:44.challengers for the next seat. We are allowed to win. You see this as
:58:45. > :58:52.an election being fought on European issues. The Labour leader in Cardiff
:58:53. > :58:56.on Friday said the cost of living crisis, saying freezing energy bills
:58:57. > :59:01.would send a message to the United Kingdom government. They are clearly
:59:02. > :59:07.fighting this on domestic issues as much as European issues. Perhaps you
:59:08. > :59:13.have chosen the wrong way to go? There is a great strand of
:59:14. > :59:18.disillusionment and politics. People are additional Nugent, which is why
:59:19. > :59:22.they want to kick the main parties. Fighting every election on every
:59:23. > :59:30.issue and not on the issues which it is about is a mistake. Labour cannot
:59:31. > :59:35.deliver these things directly. The need to win an election to do that.
:59:36. > :59:41.The European election is about where we are in Europe. It is about jobs
:59:42. > :59:44.in Europe and being in work as a legitimate argument about it. It is
:59:45. > :59:54.a big market, it is about not threatening that. Labour is
:59:55. > :00:00.appealing to people to send a message to Westminster, to put a
:00:01. > :00:07.marker down before the general election. People voting understand
:00:08. > :00:13.that. They are fed up with a coalition government and will send
:00:14. > :00:17.them a message through the ballot box? I can understand that, but the
:00:18. > :00:23.team to do that is at the general election. On this occasion, we are
:00:24. > :00:28.talking about Europe. We are talking about the jobs that come from being
:00:29. > :00:34.in the single market. We are also looking at reforming Europe. I was
:00:35. > :00:40.going to ask you about that, you're happy about the Wii Europe works the
:00:41. > :00:44.moment? Not at all. There are things wrong with what go on in Cardiff,
:00:45. > :00:50.what goes on in Westminster, all areas of our parliaments. There are
:00:51. > :00:59.madness is in the European Parliament. The fact that it sits on
:01:00. > :01:04.two different places. It is a costly waste of money. We want to see it
:01:05. > :01:09.becoming more democratic, which it is, and we want to see that the
:01:10. > :01:15.members of the European Parliament are hard-working and that the
:01:16. > :01:24.regulations are being adhered to. We want to make sure things work in
:01:25. > :01:31.every aspect of the European Union. What sort of state is the party in
:01:32. > :01:36.in Wales? You have had the few rocky years? I think it is a surprisingly
:01:37. > :01:41.good state. We entered into the coalition with our eyes open. We did
:01:42. > :01:52.that as a party in a very democratic way. We keep campaigning very hard,
:01:53. > :01:55.so I am very optimistic. We will see of that pays off for you.
:01:56. > :01:58.Alec Daunce, lead Liberal Democrat election candidate for Wales, thank
:01:59. > :02:01.you very much. Next week, I will be speaking to Plaid Cymru's lead
:02:02. > :02:03.candidate, Jill Evans, and the UK Independence Party's Nathan Gill.
:02:04. > :02:05.For now, though, that is all from Independence Party's Nathan Gill.
:02:06. > :02:09.on our website. That is all we have got time for this week. Next week,
:02:10. > :02:17.London's local elections. Welcome back. Now, the Government is
:02:18. > :02:21.not very good at predicting the future. That's according to a report
:02:22. > :02:23.from a committee of MPs this morning who say that its Horizon Scanning
:02:24. > :02:25.programme that's supposed to identify potential threats, risks,
:02:26. > :02:32.emerging issues and opportunities isn't much good at reading the tea
:02:33. > :02:35.leaves. But can it really be any worse than our panel? Here they are
:02:36. > :02:45.predicting the future of then culture secretary Maria Miller
:02:46. > :02:49.before Easter. Can she survive? I'm getting out of
:02:50. > :02:55.the prediction game after I said Nick Clegg would win the debates.
:02:56. > :03:01.But I almost think she might. If there is a big event that moves this
:03:02. > :03:07.off the front pages. David Cameron will want to keep Maria Miller until
:03:08. > :03:13.at least his summary shuffle. I think they will get rid of her. I
:03:14. > :03:19.think they will do the decent thing after exhausting all other options.
:03:20. > :03:28.Maria Miller resigned a few days later of course! The best and the
:03:29. > :03:31.brightest, when did that slip in? This week it will be exactly a year
:03:32. > :03:39.until the General Election, so what better time to get our panel to gaze
:03:40. > :03:44.into their crystal balls again. What's the outcome of the election
:03:45. > :03:52.in 2015? I'm going to go with the polls and say Ed Miliband as the
:03:53. > :03:57.Prime Minister. But the polls are only a snapshot of opinion now, you
:03:58. > :04:05.think they will be the same in a year? No, I think they will narrow.
:04:06. > :04:09.I think UKIP's vote share will fall. I think they are currently coasting
:04:10. > :04:18.on a high and that will tailor way so they won't take as many votes off
:04:19. > :04:24.the Tories. Labour with a majority or is the largest party. Another
:04:25. > :04:31.liberal Conservative coalition, and I say that because he is already in
:04:32. > :04:36.touching distance of Labour. I don't think UKIP will get 15, maybe half
:04:37. > :04:40.of that, and most of the votes they lose will either not vote at all go
:04:41. > :04:45.to the Tories and that should be enough to be the biggest party in a
:04:46. > :04:52.hung parliament I don't envisage a Tory majority. I am also going to go
:04:53. > :04:55.with the polls. For Ed Miliband to be hoping to win at this stage, he
:04:56. > :05:04.has got to be way ahead in the polls. Labour needs to be much
:05:05. > :05:08.further ahead if he is going to win so David Cameron, probably the
:05:09. > :05:11.leader of the largest party. Last time after the election David
:05:12. > :05:16.Cameron went to the 1922 committee and announced he was Prime Minister
:05:17. > :05:19.as head of the Coalition. He has agreed this time he will consult
:05:20. > :05:24.them and it will be much more difficult for him to get a
:05:25. > :05:31.coalition. People at home have now concluded there will be a Liberal
:05:32. > :05:36.Democrat landslide! Are we going to have debates? Yes, probably further
:05:37. > :05:43.away from polling day then last time. That is the Liberal Democrat
:05:44. > :05:49.point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all the life out of the campaign, so the
:05:50. > :05:52.last six weeks will be left to traditional campaigning. What did
:05:53. > :06:01.you make of this in the Sunday Times this morning, this two, three, five
:06:02. > :06:09.formula. There should be a Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then
:06:10. > :06:20.there should be another one with them and UKIP and the Greens. It
:06:21. > :06:24.might be testing the patience of the nation to tune into all of those. If
:06:25. > :06:29.you're going to say Nigel Farage should be there, the Green party
:06:30. > :06:35.should be too. They know that as soon as you put them on a podium
:06:36. > :06:41.next to them, he looks like he has equal stature and that is a problem.
:06:42. > :06:45.David Cameron does not want the debates to happen on the way they
:06:46. > :06:50.happened last time. It is generally regarded, Lynton Crosby believes
:06:51. > :06:56.they were a disaster for David Cameron because they allowed Nick
:06:57. > :07:01.Clegg to be the fresh person. He knows he cannot say no to them so
:07:02. > :07:05.the moment you see David Cameron suggesting that Caroline Lucas
:07:06. > :07:09.should be in the debate, you know he is not serious. What he will try to
:07:10. > :07:13.do is have more debates, have them outside the main part of the general
:07:14. > :07:17.election so that it doesn't dominate. The problem the David
:07:18. > :07:24.Cameron is that the campaign will be much longer. It is a five-week
:07:25. > :07:29.campaign so it is quite difficult for him to say we will only have one
:07:30. > :07:33.debate in that campaign. I think smother it with love, hopefully it
:07:34. > :07:38.will go to the courts for him and hopefully they will never happen and
:07:39. > :07:42.he will be delighted. The European election and the local elections are
:07:43. > :07:47.coming up. The three mainstream parties are saying it is a flash in
:07:48. > :07:53.the pan, they don't really matter and so on, but if UKIP comes a
:07:54. > :07:59.strong first, if Labour comes a poor second and the Tories come a poor
:08:00. > :08:05.third, it will have consequences for all three, and the Lib Dems come
:08:06. > :08:09.forth or even fish. It will have consequences and not just in the
:08:10. > :08:12.media but on the ground. One of the big stories is what will happen to
:08:13. > :08:20.the Lib Dems, they face losing all of their MEPs. A good result for
:08:21. > :08:24.them is lit -- in the local elections is losing 250 councillors.
:08:25. > :08:31.These are the most interesting elections we have had for some
:08:32. > :08:35.time. Are we heading for a Nick Clegg summer leadership crisis? I
:08:36. > :08:39.think we are heading towards reversing the clock back to where we
:08:40. > :08:45.were before the Eastleigh by-election. That quiet and things
:08:46. > :08:49.down for Nick Clegg. If they lose all their MEPs, and there is a real
:08:50. > :08:55.chance they will, Vince Cable will be out on manoeuvres because age is
:08:56. > :09:02.not on his side. If he can say Nick Clegg is a loser and a failure, he
:09:03. > :09:17.will be back. Will the Tories go into headless chicken mode if they
:09:18. > :09:23.come third? Yes, if UKIP come first there will not be as much panic as
:09:24. > :09:28.if Labour come first. Is Labour comes a poor second, will there be
:09:29. > :09:33.some pressure on Ed Miliband to reopen his attitude to the
:09:34. > :09:37.referendum? I don't think so and my colleague was talking to Labour
:09:38. > :09:41.sources who said he is absolutely not going to. That is something you
:09:42. > :09:46.can say definitely about him, he decides on a course and he sticks to
:09:47. > :09:52.it. There is one potential upside for David Cameron in a really bad
:09:53. > :09:55.Conservative results, it could strengthen his hand in the
:09:56. > :10:00.renegotiations of Britain's EU membership because he doesn't even
:10:01. > :10:07.need to say to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande it is there. David
:10:08. > :10:12.Cameron hasn't just been fighting for his party into the local
:10:13. > :10:15.elections. He also got his knuckles wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow,
:10:16. > :10:22.at Prime Minister's Question Time, for talking for too long. Take a
:10:23. > :10:27.look at this. There is a better future ahead of us but we must not
:10:28. > :10:32.go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place.
:10:33. > :10:50.I don't know what they are paying him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I
:10:51. > :10:54.haven't finished! In response to that question, the Prime Minister
:10:55. > :11:01.has finished and he can take it from me that he has finished. I can't
:11:02. > :11:07.remember a speaker ever speaking to a Prime Minister like that. Clearly
:11:08. > :11:12.in that case, John Bercow crossed a line. It is Prime Minister 's
:11:13. > :11:17.questions, he is entitled to answer the questions. There is really bad
:11:18. > :11:24.blood between those two, going back a long way. They hate each other and
:11:25. > :11:30.the worrying thing about that was the look of triumphalism on the
:11:31. > :11:33.speaker's face afterwards. He is a remarkable, revolutionary speaker
:11:34. > :11:37.who has made the House of Commons more relevant, he is holding the
:11:38. > :11:43.executive to account, but that look on his face showed he had crossed
:11:44. > :11:47.the line. Does he survive after the next election? He has improved the
:11:48. > :11:53.importance of the Commons, is that enough to keep him in the Speaker 's
:11:54. > :12:00.chair? The most public bit of the Commons is still the Prime Minister
:12:01. > :12:04.'s questions, and we can conclude that John Bercow's interventions
:12:05. > :12:11.take more time than any delays he complains about so I wouldn't be
:12:12. > :12:17.surprised if, in a few years' time, someone else replaces him. He is
:12:18. > :12:23.quite popular someone else replaces him. He is
:12:24. > :12:28.not? Yes, he is married to a Labour activist and is notably sympathetic
:12:29. > :12:33.to Labour but I think this is a difficult situation. David Cameron
:12:34. > :12:39.also overstepped the line. As soon as the speaker says order, the idea
:12:40. > :12:44.is that the House was to order and David Cameron pushed him. They are
:12:45. > :12:48.both trying to score points off each other. We cover Prime Minister 's
:12:49. > :12:57.questions every week on the daily politics, and there is a danger that
:12:58. > :13:00.he sees it as an opportunity to do some grandstanding. You slightly
:13:01. > :13:05.sends his vanity gets the better of him. It is supposed to be Prime
:13:06. > :13:10.Minister 's questions. At the end of that session, the Speaker read out a
:13:11. > :13:15.statement from the Chief clerk, and immensely respected figure, saying
:13:16. > :13:20.he is taking early retirement. It is pretty clear that the reason he has
:13:21. > :13:22.decided to go early is because he is finding it tricky to maintain a
:13:23. > :13:28.cordial relationship with the speaker, and the speaker might want
:13:29. > :13:31.to think about his man management skills. That's all for today. The
:13:32. > :13:35.Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at lunchtime from Tuesday
:13:36. > :13:38.onwards. Remember, it is a bank holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here
:13:39. > :13:39.at 11am next week. Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday
:13:40. > :13:44.Politics.