:00:39. > :00:45.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until
:00:46. > :00:49.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader
:00:50. > :00:53.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections
:00:54. > :00:58.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls
:00:59. > :01:03.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a
:01:04. > :01:06.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised
:01:07. > :01:11.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the
:01:12. > :01:23.The polls open in four days' campaign trail, he has
:01:24. > :01:25.The polls open in four days' this week, a last look at the euro
:01:26. > :01:36.elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's
:01:37. > :01:41.32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got
:01:42. > :01:48.all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it
:01:49. > :01:52.is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local
:01:53. > :01:56.elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are
:01:57. > :02:01.the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some
:02:02. > :02:04.say that these European and local elections will not be much of a
:02:05. > :02:11.pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political
:02:12. > :02:16.commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is
:02:17. > :02:18.at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European
:02:19. > :02:42.Parliament elections. These local results should be known
:02:43. > :02:47.by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the
:02:48. > :02:53.European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let
:02:54. > :02:58.it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced
:02:59. > :03:03.until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member
:03:04. > :03:06.states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this
:03:07. > :03:09.morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,
:03:10. > :03:14.and the general election is still wide open - we really are in
:03:15. > :03:18.uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,
:03:19. > :03:23.because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst
:03:24. > :03:26.those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times
:03:27. > :03:34.showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know
:03:35. > :03:39.that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the
:03:40. > :03:42.major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP
:03:43. > :03:48.success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has
:03:49. > :03:51.been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party
:03:52. > :03:56.is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next
:03:57. > :04:00.week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders
:04:01. > :04:04.who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick
:04:05. > :04:10.Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or
:04:11. > :04:13.four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he
:04:14. > :04:18.should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral
:04:19. > :04:23.force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a
:04:24. > :04:27.couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one
:04:28. > :04:33.who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr
:04:34. > :04:36.Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.
:04:37. > :04:44.The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his
:04:45. > :04:54.own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the
:04:55. > :04:59.Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly
:05:00. > :05:03.at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England
:05:04. > :05:08.has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England
:05:09. > :05:14.now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what
:05:15. > :05:18.the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,
:05:19. > :05:23.it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections
:05:24. > :05:29.began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they
:05:30. > :05:32.finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish
:05:33. > :05:35.runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on
:05:36. > :05:42.something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,
:05:43. > :05:48.France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first
:05:49. > :05:52.past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a
:05:53. > :05:56.situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the
:05:57. > :06:00.largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of
:06:01. > :06:04.seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two
:06:05. > :06:10.parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's
:06:11. > :06:15.speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP
:06:16. > :06:19.claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on
:06:20. > :06:25.Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become
:06:26. > :06:29.a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a
:06:30. > :06:35.grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are
:06:36. > :06:39.going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this
:06:40. > :06:44.earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we
:06:45. > :06:47.will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election
:06:48. > :06:51.manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and
:06:52. > :06:54.putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring
:06:55. > :06:58.Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of
:06:59. > :07:09.power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a
:07:10. > :07:12.referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up
:07:13. > :07:17.party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies
:07:18. > :07:22.created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them
:07:23. > :07:26.this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more
:07:27. > :07:29.robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other
:07:30. > :07:35.three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got
:07:36. > :07:42.nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this
:07:43. > :07:45.week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or
:07:46. > :07:48.Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on
:07:49. > :07:53.all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been
:07:54. > :07:57.involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am
:07:58. > :08:00.not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably
:08:01. > :08:04.needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any
:08:05. > :08:10.worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we
:08:11. > :08:13.do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they
:08:14. > :08:17.know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to
:08:18. > :08:24.far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a
:08:25. > :08:26.one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the
:08:27. > :08:34.headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a
:08:35. > :08:37.huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople
:08:38. > :08:40.across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably
:08:41. > :08:47.the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic
:08:48. > :08:52.leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get
:08:53. > :08:58.our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many
:08:59. > :09:04.more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We
:09:05. > :09:11.are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by
:09:12. > :09:14.Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between
:09:15. > :09:20.television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how
:09:21. > :09:25.much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like
:09:26. > :09:29.the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in
:09:30. > :09:33.conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a
:09:34. > :09:39.joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote
:09:40. > :09:45.UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party
:09:46. > :09:53.line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...
:09:54. > :09:57.On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is
:09:58. > :10:01.obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a
:10:02. > :10:09.manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have
:10:10. > :10:13.put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government
:10:14. > :10:17.level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,
:10:18. > :10:21.local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a
:10:22. > :10:26.school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best
:10:27. > :10:30.interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any
:10:31. > :10:36.party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.
:10:37. > :10:39.People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their
:10:40. > :10:44.party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote
:10:45. > :10:48.to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a
:10:49. > :10:54.road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road
:10:55. > :10:59.map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.
:11:00. > :11:02.Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but
:11:03. > :11:07.there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There
:11:08. > :11:12.is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that
:11:13. > :11:17.detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.
:11:18. > :11:21.We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong
:11:22. > :11:25.position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade
:11:26. > :11:33.deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What
:11:34. > :11:38.would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for
:11:39. > :11:42.back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade
:11:43. > :11:46.agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the
:11:47. > :11:50.European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975
:11:51. > :11:59.involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do
:12:00. > :12:03.not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply
:12:04. > :12:11.concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it
:12:12. > :12:15.sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is
:12:16. > :12:22.better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds
:12:23. > :12:25.like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all
:12:26. > :12:29.manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our
:12:30. > :12:33.sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if
:12:34. > :12:38.a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am
:12:39. > :12:43.surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in
:12:44. > :12:48.next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different
:12:49. > :12:58.from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they
:12:59. > :13:02.being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being
:13:03. > :13:05.trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I
:13:06. > :13:09.do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian
:13:10. > :13:12.approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were
:13:13. > :13:17.learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British
:13:18. > :13:19.economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out
:13:20. > :13:35.how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24
:13:36. > :13:38.hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours
:13:39. > :13:46.in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make
:13:47. > :13:51.up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in
:13:52. > :13:55.Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local
:13:56. > :13:59.and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at
:14:00. > :14:04.eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and
:14:05. > :14:12.producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm
:14:13. > :14:23.welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.
:14:24. > :14:27.One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got
:14:28. > :14:31.Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and
:14:32. > :14:35.that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but
:14:36. > :14:41.it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members
:14:42. > :14:50.for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top
:14:51. > :14:53.Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in
:14:54. > :14:58.traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in
:14:59. > :15:03.time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to
:15:04. > :15:08.Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not
:15:09. > :15:15.even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We
:15:16. > :15:20.will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the
:15:21. > :15:22.Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the
:15:23. > :15:38.Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses
:15:39. > :15:42.upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a
:15:43. > :15:50.referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.
:15:51. > :15:58.I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about
:15:59. > :16:02.elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at
:16:03. > :16:05.our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in
:16:06. > :16:10.Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from
:16:11. > :16:20.chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was
:16:21. > :16:26.boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just
:16:27. > :16:33.hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft
:16:34. > :16:41.their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who
:16:42. > :16:47.live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed
:16:48. > :16:50.Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls
:16:51. > :16:54.lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who
:16:55. > :17:06.is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're
:17:07. > :17:12.flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right
:17:13. > :17:19.place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning
:17:20. > :17:25.as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said
:17:26. > :17:32.the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If
:17:33. > :17:37.he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not
:17:38. > :17:42.forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40
:17:43. > :17:48.minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for
:17:49. > :17:56.something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home
:17:57. > :18:09.for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy
:18:10. > :18:16.elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack
:18:17. > :18:20.Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens
:18:21. > :18:29.used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went
:18:30. > :18:37.wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs
:18:38. > :18:41.and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these
:18:42. > :18:44.elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party
:18:45. > :18:51.calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making
:18:52. > :18:57.poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have
:18:58. > :19:04.made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the
:19:05. > :19:08.left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative
:19:09. > :19:16.vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I
:19:17. > :19:19.met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane
:19:20. > :19:25.exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond
:19:26. > :19:28.issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned
:19:29. > :19:34.about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the
:19:35. > :19:40.Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price
:19:41. > :19:47.bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the
:19:48. > :19:57.same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline
:19:58. > :20:01.greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs
:20:02. > :20:07.and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our
:20:08. > :20:10.economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has
:20:11. > :20:17.sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one
:20:18. > :20:22.planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by
:20:23. > :20:28.renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on
:20:29. > :20:34.days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It
:20:35. > :20:38.is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a
:20:39. > :20:44.smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to
:20:45. > :20:49.supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to
:20:50. > :21:00.work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and
:21:01. > :21:04.we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is
:21:05. > :21:14.owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the
:21:15. > :21:25.big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French
:21:26. > :21:31.nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,
:21:32. > :21:34.going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government
:21:35. > :21:41.proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two
:21:42. > :21:46.plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.
:21:47. > :21:50.We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more
:21:51. > :21:56.seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined
:21:57. > :22:02.strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's
:22:03. > :22:06.throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise
:22:07. > :22:11.council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by
:22:12. > :22:17.other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at
:22:18. > :22:22.the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor
:22:23. > :22:29.numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in
:22:30. > :22:34.Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are
:22:35. > :22:38.the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of
:22:39. > :22:46.Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a
:22:47. > :22:51.debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have
:22:52. > :22:56.that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city
:22:57. > :23:00.should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be
:23:01. > :23:09.brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride
:23:10. > :23:13.in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the
:23:14. > :23:22.people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in
:23:23. > :23:27.Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do
:23:28. > :23:34.most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.
:23:35. > :24:09.Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,
:24:10. > :24:19.the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a
:24:20. > :24:23.European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and
:24:24. > :24:28.only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with
:24:29. > :24:35.the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP
:24:36. > :24:40.party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions
:24:41. > :24:43.usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on
:24:44. > :24:50.to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it
:24:51. > :24:57.suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well
:24:58. > :25:01.either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation
:25:02. > :25:06.has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will
:25:07. > :25:10.not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to
:25:11. > :25:16.hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come
:25:17. > :25:20.out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we
:25:21. > :25:25.want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child
:25:26. > :25:31.tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but
:25:32. > :25:38.Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to
:25:39. > :25:42.halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to
:25:43. > :25:47.the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done
:25:48. > :25:57.to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in
:25:58. > :26:03.the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be
:26:04. > :26:10.lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never
:26:11. > :26:13.knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support
:26:14. > :26:19.because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit
:26:20. > :26:29.like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now
:26:30. > :26:34.we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make
:26:35. > :26:39.together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that
:26:40. > :26:49.only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been
:26:50. > :26:54.shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out
:26:55. > :27:04.of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the
:27:05. > :27:09.jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives
:27:10. > :27:13.comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't
:27:14. > :27:19.really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been
:27:20. > :27:23.there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite
:27:24. > :27:28.being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on
:27:29. > :27:32.Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we
:27:33. > :27:36.wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal
:27:37. > :27:41.Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.
:27:42. > :27:50.But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have
:27:51. > :27:57.taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We
:27:58. > :28:01.are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our
:28:02. > :28:11.relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why
:28:12. > :28:14.has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your
:28:15. > :28:20.own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we
:28:21. > :28:26.have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will
:28:27. > :28:30.decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is
:28:31. > :28:39.that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon
:28:40. > :28:48.and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband
:28:49. > :28:57.said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy
:28:58. > :29:06.prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower
:29:07. > :29:10.than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general
:29:11. > :29:15.election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this
:29:16. > :29:18.question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David
:29:19. > :29:24.Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in
:29:25. > :29:28.the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties
:29:29. > :29:34.that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who
:29:35. > :29:39.say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has
:29:40. > :29:45.given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing
:29:46. > :29:49.something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader
:29:50. > :29:59.bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of
:30:00. > :30:03.the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who
:30:04. > :30:09.think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak
:30:10. > :30:12.to people about it, people understand that we are better in
:30:13. > :30:17.them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs
:30:18. > :30:20.Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have
:30:21. > :30:25.battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to
:30:26. > :30:30.take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been
:30:31. > :30:36.delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.
:30:37. > :30:41.-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,
:30:42. > :30:47.people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's
:30:48. > :30:50.antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable
:30:51. > :30:55.housing they need. We as a government have delivered more
:30:56. > :30:58.affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties
:30:59. > :31:10.earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out
:31:11. > :31:16.that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in
:31:17. > :31:19.2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly
:31:20. > :31:26.half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher
:31:27. > :31:30.or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions
:31:31. > :31:38.of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I
:31:39. > :31:42.would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the
:31:43. > :31:46.deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now
:31:47. > :31:51.have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people
:31:52. > :31:54.employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say
:31:55. > :31:59.that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We
:32:00. > :32:03.need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.
:32:04. > :32:08.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are
:32:09. > :32:15.the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any
:32:16. > :32:21.change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think
:32:22. > :32:24.like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree
:32:25. > :32:30.with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply
:32:31. > :32:34.would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the
:32:35. > :32:39.workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now
:32:40. > :32:44.privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the
:32:45. > :32:47.coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level
:32:48. > :32:52.since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got
:32:53. > :32:56.a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies
:32:57. > :33:02.which directly address the problems which people face. I think the
:33:03. > :33:05.public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for
:33:06. > :33:10.the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We
:33:11. > :33:14.are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next
:33:15. > :33:18.time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the
:33:19. > :33:25.relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.
:33:26. > :33:32.We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.
:33:33. > :33:38.We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying
:33:39. > :33:40.in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall
:33:41. > :33:50.transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for
:33:51. > :33:56.this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to
:33:57. > :34:00.leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but
:34:01. > :34:05.we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the
:34:06. > :34:11.future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built
:34:12. > :34:15.our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want
:34:16. > :34:20.artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out
:34:21. > :34:25.of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being
:34:26. > :34:28.positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep
:34:29. > :34:32.absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said
:34:33. > :34:36.that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British
:34:37. > :34:41.withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a
:34:42. > :34:52.successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am
:34:53. > :34:58.very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with
:34:59. > :35:04.confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he
:35:05. > :35:08.said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the
:35:09. > :35:12.party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you
:35:13. > :35:16.agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and
:35:17. > :35:21.then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a
:35:22. > :35:24.line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with
:35:25. > :35:29.Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay
:35:30. > :35:33.in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am
:35:34. > :35:37.not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every
:35:38. > :35:42.question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!
:35:43. > :35:46.I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at
:35:47. > :35:54.our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,
:35:55. > :35:59.what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems
:36:00. > :36:03.towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at
:36:04. > :36:08.sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,
:36:09. > :36:13.we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the
:36:14. > :36:19.Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.
:36:20. > :36:22.It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of
:36:23. > :36:27.powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we
:36:28. > :36:34.believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for
:36:35. > :36:41.economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our
:36:42. > :36:43.relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday
:36:44. > :36:50.will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything
:36:51. > :36:57.you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I
:36:58. > :37:03.am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the
:37:04. > :37:06.dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that
:37:07. > :37:10.Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth
:37:11. > :37:16.is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of
:37:17. > :37:27.a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one
:37:28. > :37:32.more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection
:37:33. > :37:36.with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should
:37:37. > :37:40.vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just
:37:41. > :37:44.that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot
:37:45. > :37:47.more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at
:37:48. > :37:51.Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not
:37:52. > :37:56.been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that
:37:57. > :37:59.is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible
:38:00. > :38:02.of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of
:38:03. > :38:10.the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.
:38:11. > :38:17.We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -
:38:18. > :38:21.he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday
:38:22. > :38:24.Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for
:38:25. > :38:43.Sunday Politics Scotland. a on Sunday Politics in Wales we
:38:44. > :38:48.rode off our European election coverage the lead candidates from
:38:49. > :38:54.the Conservative and Labour. With nursing in the spotlight, are
:38:55. > :38:57.we training enough nurses in Wales? First, voting in the European
:38:58. > :39:03.election takes place on Thursday. It is five years since Wales last went
:39:04. > :39:07.to the polls to elect its MEPs. When votes were counted at the last
:39:08. > :39:12.European elections Labour had failed to secure the biggest share of the
:39:13. > :39:17.vote in Wales for the first time since 1918. The Conservatives topped
:39:18. > :39:21.the poll, propping a celebratory visit to Cardiff by the then leader
:39:22. > :39:27.of the opposition, David Cameron. Liber won the second seat. Light
:39:28. > :39:30.Cymru took the third, with UKIP taking the fourth seed and getting
:39:31. > :39:35.its first ever elected representative in Wales. The Liberal
:39:36. > :39:42.Democrats again failed to win European seat in Wales.
:39:43. > :39:46.Case when Byrne has been an MEP since 2009. She is the lead
:39:47. > :39:53.Conservative candidate in Wales and joins me now.
:39:54. > :39:57.You have been saying in this election campaign that people should
:39:58. > :40:01.not use this election as a protest vote against the UK government, but
:40:02. > :40:05.it is a protest vote against the last Labour government which give it
:40:06. > :40:10.that success we have just seen in 2009.
:40:11. > :40:16.I think national politics play into people's intentions, but European
:40:17. > :40:20.elections are important in their own right and so national politics to
:40:21. > :40:23.play a part in sentiment, but it is important to understand that this is
:40:24. > :40:28.about four people who will stand up for Wales in Brussels for the next
:40:29. > :40:34.five years, rather than this being about sending a message to
:40:35. > :40:37.Westminster. Given that the elections are only one year apart,
:40:38. > :40:42.hopefully we can differentiate between them, and the five-year
:40:43. > :40:46.period when MEPs will work in Brussels can be the focus.
:40:47. > :40:53.Let's talk about the big European issues. David Cameron has put on the
:40:54. > :40:58.agenda and referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. He wants to
:40:59. > :41:01.renegotiate Britain's's relationship. What does that mean?
:41:02. > :41:07.What the Conservatives want to change?
:41:08. > :41:15.We're running a campaign on reform, renegotiation and a referendum.
:41:16. > :41:18.What does that mean? Reform and renegotiation of things
:41:19. > :41:22.that we have been doing, certainly I have been doing, every single time I
:41:23. > :41:25.have worked on a piece of legislation over the last five
:41:26. > :41:29.years. Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, reform of the
:41:30. > :41:35.fisheries policy, reform of the budget. We have had an historic
:41:36. > :41:39.negotiation with a budget of the European Union has been cut for the
:41:40. > :41:44.first time ever for the next seven years. Not only that, but the way in
:41:45. > :41:49.which the money is distributed to projects that support jobs and
:41:50. > :41:53.growth has also been reformed. If you are able to reform these
:41:54. > :41:57.things and get your way in Brussels and Strasbourg, then why do we need
:41:58. > :42:03.to renegotiate Britain's's relationship with the EU?
:42:04. > :42:08.There are big things we need to put into a new treaty as and when it
:42:09. > :42:12.comes about. That is about things like social employment legislation.
:42:13. > :42:16.At the moment we have a lot of things coming from Brussels in this
:42:17. > :42:21.area, and for me it is not a case of one size fits all. Or employers need
:42:22. > :42:27.flexibility in workforces. For me it is important that we maintain
:42:28. > :42:30.national control over those issues. Pulling out of what used to be
:42:31. > :42:36.called the social chapter? You want to get rid of that?
:42:37. > :42:41.Tony Blair give a veto on that, by one that reinstated.
:42:42. > :42:46.That provides things like protection for workers and maternity cover.
:42:47. > :42:49.Want to get rid of that? The UK does that already, we already
:42:50. > :42:54.have high standards in the United Kingdom. This is not about having
:42:55. > :42:58.one size across Europe. Been standards across Europe are fine,
:42:59. > :43:04.but having them control the exact level? There is talk of a European
:43:05. > :43:09.minimum wage. That is inappropriate when there is such a disparity
:43:10. > :43:15.between wealth among the member countries. It does not work, and so
:43:16. > :43:21.member states sometimes are better at setting these rules.
:43:22. > :43:27.Unless you can repatriate those policy areas, you think we should
:43:28. > :43:31.pull out of the EU? We're not the only ones saying there
:43:32. > :43:37.should be a renegotiation. Recently at a discussion in Brussels a very
:43:38. > :43:42.senior ambassador in the EU to the Netherlands said to me, you are not
:43:43. > :43:45.leading this as conservatives in the United Kingdom, we are, in the
:43:46. > :43:49.Netherlands. We have already published a list of things we think
:43:50. > :43:52.should be repatriated to the Netherlands.
:43:53. > :43:57.You are looking for allies, aren't you? Does the French presidency has
:43:58. > :44:05.made this clear that this is not a priority. You are up against it.
:44:06. > :44:08.We are. The reality of renegotiating a
:44:09. > :44:12.treaty is a big ask. You have 27 other countries to convince.
:44:13. > :44:18.Absolutely, but we do that every day, and the European Union is about
:44:19. > :44:22.trying to find compromises and solutions that work for everybody.
:44:23. > :44:26.Is that why he has not been very specific, because he knows that the
:44:27. > :44:32.chances of getting what he really wants are so slim?
:44:33. > :44:36.It is the opposite. If you put all your cards on the table you want
:44:37. > :44:42.because you have already shown your hand.
:44:43. > :44:46.It is not poker, is it? It is a hugely important issue. And people
:44:47. > :44:55.want to know, what is the alternative? If it is in, and
:44:56. > :45:02.referendum, what does I won't mean? -- what does coming out mine?
:45:03. > :45:12.Will have growth and competitiveness built into a new treaty. In terms of
:45:13. > :45:17.the timing it will fit with the need for a Euro zone treaty change. We
:45:18. > :45:22.are of the mandate for the saving of the euro during the last few years,
:45:23. > :45:27.and I have had to work on that, so I know the change is coming. But I am
:45:28. > :45:32.not talking about coming out, I am talking about renegotiation being
:45:33. > :45:37.successful. If it is not, and if there is a
:45:38. > :45:40.referendum on things as they are at the moment, would you vote in or
:45:41. > :45:46.out? It is not that simple.
:45:47. > :45:49.It is. David Cameron has said he will renegotiate and then put it to
:45:50. > :45:55.the people. If we negotiation fails, then what?
:45:56. > :45:58.There is a balance of competencies review going on which will gather
:45:59. > :46:02.information in a completely unpolitical way. It will gather
:46:03. > :46:07.information on what is best done nationally and at a European level.
:46:08. > :46:11.That is being done by civil servants in Whitehall. When we have that
:46:12. > :46:15.information we will be able to look carefully at what needs to come
:46:16. > :46:19.back. If there was a referendum tomorrow,
:46:20. > :46:23.you can't tell us what you would vote?
:46:24. > :46:27.Until we know the outcome of the balance of competencies, it is
:46:28. > :46:32.difficult to say. We don't know what the alternative is yet either. That
:46:33. > :46:35.is why we say there will be a referendum for the people of Wales,
:46:36. > :46:41.the people of United Kingdom by the end of 2017.
:46:42. > :46:45.We saw that you topped the poll last time. What will success look like
:46:46. > :46:54.this time? Opinion polls say that you will not repeat that success.
:46:55. > :47:00.Wales only has four MEPs. I really just want to be one of those four
:47:01. > :47:05.MEPs. I do believe I have given a strong voice for Wales in the last
:47:06. > :47:08.five years and I hope that the people of Wales will want to return
:47:09. > :47:12.me so that I have that voice to fight for Welsh issues.
:47:13. > :47:19.How much support are you losing to UKIP?
:47:20. > :47:23.We don't know. The polls are very divergent at the moment. People
:47:24. > :47:30.understand the need for reform of the EU, they also recognise that the
:47:31. > :47:33.European Union has gone in a direction that many people don't
:47:34. > :47:37.want. We believe we can renegotiate.
:47:38. > :47:44.Like you very much for joining us, Kay Swinburne.
:47:45. > :47:47.Polling day is four days away. There are four Welsh seats up for
:47:48. > :47:50.grabs in the European election. Here and across the rest of the UK,
:47:51. > :47:54.voting will take place next Thursday, May 22. But we won't know
:47:55. > :47:58.who has won until next Sunday evening, that's because voting has
:47:59. > :48:02.to be finished across the EU before any results can be declared. In the
:48:03. > :48:08.polling booth, there is one vote for your party of choice. The four Welsh
:48:09. > :48:11.seats will be distributed based on the number of votes cast. The
:48:12. > :48:15.parties have already decided which candidate would be elected if they
:48:16. > :48:18.win one, two or more seats. The MEPs will represent Wales in the
:48:19. > :48:26.Parliament for the next five years. They will help to decide and oversee
:48:27. > :48:30.the EU's annual 135.5bn euro budget. About two thirds of that budget goes
:48:31. > :48:33.on farming subsidies and aid for the EU's poorest regions, including
:48:34. > :48:36.Wales, and our MEPs draw up laws in lots of areas including consumer
:48:37. > :48:44.policy, the environment, culture and public health. Postal voting is
:48:45. > :48:47.already under way. We won't know who has been elected and who has not
:48:48. > :48:57.made it until late next Sunday night or the early hours of Monday
:48:58. > :49:05.morning. My next guest is Labour's lead
:49:06. > :49:10.candidate in the election. A man who I dare say hopes to top the poll
:49:11. > :49:14.next week. I will begin with the question I asked my last guest, is
:49:15. > :49:19.UKIP making life difficult for Labour as well?
:49:20. > :49:22.We are not picking up great support for UKIP on the doorstep. I think
:49:23. > :49:29.some of it may be hidden, some people may be embarrassed to say
:49:30. > :49:37.they are planning to vote for an extreme right-wing party and when we
:49:38. > :49:39.explain to people that some of UKIP's policies involve scrapping
:49:40. > :49:45.workers rights, scrapping pensions, large increases in tax for ordinary
:49:46. > :49:51.people, legalising handguns, many people say they didn't know that.
:49:52. > :50:01.What will success look like for Labour? Will you win a second seed?
:50:02. > :50:05.We can win that second seat, and there is great enthusiasm among
:50:06. > :50:12.party members to campaign for that second seat. Yesterday there were
:50:13. > :50:16.hundreds of Labour Party members out across Wales. We have knocked twice
:50:17. > :50:21.as many doors as in 2009, and delivered twice as many leaflets, so
:50:22. > :50:25.we can win a second seat, but it does depend on the turnout. So we
:50:26. > :50:31.will encourage voters to come out and vote for us.
:50:32. > :50:35.You have been encouraging voters to send a message to the UK
:50:36. > :50:39.government. Do you not worry that they will want to send a message to
:50:40. > :50:45.the Welsh government about schools and hospitals?
:50:46. > :50:50.I think many people recognise that many of the cuts we have in Wales
:50:51. > :50:56.are cuts made on the Welsh budget by the UK government. A cut on money
:50:57. > :50:59.going to the Welsh government by the UK government will have consequences
:51:00. > :51:04.in terms of services. That is what you tell people, it is
:51:05. > :51:09.not Labour's fault? I think most people accept that, and
:51:10. > :51:12.they want to send a message to the UK government that they are fed up
:51:13. > :51:20.with cuts on the one hand and the cost of living prices on the other.
:51:21. > :51:25.I talked about the Conservative stance on a referendum, and it is
:51:26. > :51:31.something that Ed Milibands. About. Do you think it is likely? It seems
:51:32. > :51:34.a bit vague. This is not about a referendum, it
:51:35. > :51:41.is about sending the four best people to Brussels.
:51:42. > :51:45.There will be a referendum before the powers go back, but that is
:51:46. > :51:51.unlikely to happen? Is that really the clarity that voters want?
:51:52. > :51:59.If there is a chance for Paris for member states, we will have a
:52:00. > :52:03.referendum at a later stage. If David Cameron is Prime Minister,
:52:04. > :52:08.there will be a referendum. Your position is, if Ed Miliband is Prime
:52:09. > :52:12.Minister, there may or may not be a referendum.
:52:13. > :52:17.The Conservatives have set an arbitrary date. What they try to
:52:18. > :52:24.renegotiate powers and feel? Will be still have a referendum? It is a
:52:25. > :52:29.mistake to set this arbitrary date. It has been said that a referendum
:52:30. > :52:34.could imperil Wales if Wales board is one way and the rest of the UK
:52:35. > :52:36.votes another way, that could be bad for the United Kingdom. Do you
:52:37. > :52:42.agree? Absolutely.
:52:43. > :52:48.Why is Labour offering a referendum, then?
:52:49. > :52:52.We are also saying that when that referendum comes, we will argue
:52:53. > :52:56.strongly for the UK to maintain its membership of the European Union cos
:52:57. > :53:01.we know there are millions of jobs in the UK that depend on trade with
:53:02. > :53:06.the EU, and many jobs in Wales. There are many big companies who all
:53:07. > :53:09.say it is vital that we retain membership of the European Union
:53:10. > :53:17.otherwise some of those companies will move abroad and will job
:53:18. > :53:20.losses. Wales has received billions of
:53:21. > :53:26.pounds of funding from the EU. It is the Labour Party, the Welsh
:53:27. > :53:32.government, but spent that money. Hasn't been well spent?
:53:33. > :53:36.It is widely recognised that myself and the Welsh governance have
:53:37. > :53:41.negotiated an increase in the funding we will get.
:53:42. > :53:45.I am asking where it has all gone. First we have to get the money, and
:53:46. > :53:49.we have to make sure that money is spent wisely in the future. That is
:53:50. > :53:53.why the Welsh governance has been consulting with business, trade
:53:54. > :53:56.unions, the voluntary sector map about the type of projects we should
:53:57. > :54:00.be funding in the future to make sure they have a big economic impact
:54:01. > :54:06.for Wales. I am asking you about the last ten
:54:07. > :54:10.or 15 years, whereas the money gone? Because the Welsh economy has
:54:11. > :54:16.not climbed up the prosperity table in that time.
:54:17. > :54:21.In the first round we perhaps funded to many projects. Refunded around
:54:22. > :54:26.3000 projects at that stage. This time we funded around 300 much
:54:27. > :54:31.bigger projects and over time we will see the impact of that.
:54:32. > :54:36.Is it too much to ask that people should see the benefits already?
:54:37. > :54:41.I think we are starting to see the benefit. The unemployment rate in
:54:42. > :54:45.Wales is about the same as the UK. Youth unemployment in Wales is lower
:54:46. > :54:50.than the UK, and that has not happened at many times in the
:54:51. > :54:53.history. So projects that have provided opportunities for young
:54:54. > :54:57.people are starting to have an impact, and over time we will see
:54:58. > :55:03.more of an impact because of the projects we have funded with you
:55:04. > :55:09.money. The EU itself measures these things
:55:10. > :55:16.on GDP per head. The most recent figures show that Wales has slipped
:55:17. > :55:20.down the league table despite having billions of pounds of EU money. Why
:55:21. > :55:25.has that happened? These figures are relative figures.
:55:26. > :55:32.Sometimes the type of projects that are funded by the EU will take a
:55:33. > :55:38.long time to show an impact. A very long time.
:55:39. > :55:45.The impact is starting to be seen in terms of unemployment. In terms of
:55:46. > :55:49.infrastructure, training, education, research and development funding,
:55:50. > :55:51.all these things will take time, but we are confident that eventually
:55:52. > :55:56.these will have a big impact in Wales and we will see our GDP rising
:55:57. > :56:01.as well as the better unemployment rates that we already see.
:56:02. > :56:06.Can you be more specific on the kind of changes that will be implemented
:56:07. > :56:09.to make sure money is better spent? Will spend more money on larger
:56:10. > :56:15.infrastructure schemes and that is good because those schemes give
:56:16. > :56:19.people work straightaway but also improve the economic competitiveness
:56:20. > :56:22.of a region in the long-term. But we also need to make sure there is
:56:23. > :56:32.money available for training and education schemes. Still money for
:56:33. > :56:40.universities, for rural areas. Wales' funding is absolutely vital
:56:41. > :56:44.for our future prosperity. Derek Vaughan, thank you very much
:56:45. > :56:50.indeed. You can get more information about the Welsh candidates standing
:56:51. > :56:54.for election from our websites. Welsh hospitals are facing a
:56:55. > :57:00.shortage of nurses which could compromise patient care. There are
:57:01. > :57:05.also concerns that recent reports of poor standards could damage
:57:06. > :57:11.recruitment. The Welsh government's chief nursing officer says enough
:57:12. > :57:16.nurses are being trained. Images of nurses through the
:57:17. > :57:21.decades, caring, compassionate, sometimes called Angels. But recent
:57:22. > :57:27.complaints about poor care maybe denting that image.
:57:28. > :57:30.Nurses are taking the blame very often, they have been put in a
:57:31. > :57:37.position where they are set up to fail.
:57:38. > :57:40.At this organisation they are discussing numbers. They say the
:57:41. > :57:44.Welsh government has underestimated the number of training places over
:57:45. > :57:51.the last few years which means there are not enough qualified nurses to
:57:52. > :57:58.feel vacancies. Bad practice can't be tolerated says the union's
:57:59. > :58:08.director, but staffing pressures can be a factor behind poor care.
:58:09. > :58:11.We are hearing about poor care, and we have to get it right for the
:58:12. > :58:18.profession and for the patients. We cannot continue to have what we
:58:19. > :58:26.would want to be a platinum service of NHS delivery if you did not have
:58:27. > :58:30.the resource to do that. The Welsh government's chief nursing
:58:31. > :58:34.officer denies there is a shortage, and despite some problems, she is
:58:35. > :58:42.keen to emphasise that the outlook overall is good.
:58:43. > :58:44.I feel that the image of nursing might be being tarnished because of
:58:45. > :58:49.some of the stories we have heard. Reality is very different. We do
:58:50. > :58:54.have real excellence in nursing care, not only in Wales but in other
:58:55. > :59:01.parts of the UK, and we need to keep a balanced view on that. We have had
:59:02. > :59:05.reports that show failures, therefore everybody must be feeling,
:59:06. > :59:08.that is not the case. He reports this week about feelings
:59:09. > :59:15.and to Welsh hospitals highlighted examples of poor care on the war.
:59:16. > :59:19.There was not criticism just of nurses, but other staff and
:59:20. > :59:23.management also. But for nurses on the front line, there is concern
:59:24. > :59:31.that this is another blow for morale. There should be a law to set
:59:32. > :59:39.minimum nurse staffing levels, according to the Liberal Democrats.
:59:40. > :59:50.Why do staffing issues need to be looked at, they say.
:59:51. > :59:52.Undoubtably nursing in recent years with the recent report or the
:59:53. > :00:02.Francis Report, they are bound to have a report on people wanting to
:00:03. > :00:06.stay in the service. -- have an effect on people wanting to stay in
:00:07. > :00:14.the service or join the service as a career. It is vital we get the right
:00:15. > :00:17.number of nurses on our awards. Nurses say that one of the most
:00:18. > :00:23.important issues now is to get staffing levels right so that they
:00:24. > :00:27.get the care they need. You can get all the latest news
:00:28. > :00:39.throughout the day with regular bulletins on radio Wales and radio,
:00:40. > :00:47.a, and from our services in Welsh. -- radio Cymru. If you want more
:00:48. > :00:53.Welsh politics, in the week we have First Minister's question Time on
:00:54. > :00:57.BBC Two Wales on Tuesday afternoon, and the Wales report after the 10pm
:00:58. > :01:23.news I'll be back at the same time next
:01:24. > :01:28.week. That's all from me,
:01:29. > :01:39.thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.
:01:40. > :01:46.Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls
:01:47. > :01:51.do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune
:01:52. > :01:57.on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take
:01:58. > :02:01.a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European
:02:02. > :02:06.Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By
:02:07. > :02:10.April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel
:02:11. > :02:16.Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both
:02:17. > :02:29.cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.
:02:30. > :02:36.Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most
:02:37. > :02:42.unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We
:02:43. > :02:46.are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.
:02:47. > :02:51.Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the
:02:52. > :02:54.European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is
:02:55. > :03:00.going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of
:03:01. > :03:04.the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more
:03:05. > :03:10.than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are
:03:11. > :03:13.doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,
:03:14. > :03:20.certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them
:03:21. > :03:29.democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are
:03:30. > :03:34.going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come
:03:35. > :03:38.the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of
:03:39. > :03:43.your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of
:03:44. > :03:48.pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,
:03:49. > :04:03.and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on
:04:04. > :04:11.voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now
:04:12. > :04:17.a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?
:04:18. > :04:23.It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to
:04:24. > :04:26.happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is
:04:27. > :04:30.becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because
:04:31. > :04:36.distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it
:04:37. > :04:41.is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to
:04:42. > :04:48.try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We
:04:49. > :04:51.know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the
:04:52. > :04:55.Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But
:04:56. > :05:00.actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different
:05:01. > :05:03.sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single
:05:04. > :05:08.establishment party should be worried, because the people voting
:05:09. > :05:12.for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.
:05:13. > :05:18.They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of
:05:19. > :05:22.them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class
:05:23. > :05:27.Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the
:05:28. > :05:32.establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who
:05:33. > :05:38.are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,
:05:39. > :05:42.where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are
:05:43. > :05:48.representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,
:05:49. > :05:56.where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote
:05:57. > :06:00.would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any
:06:01. > :06:03.European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much
:06:04. > :06:07.attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that
:06:08. > :06:12.they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic
:06:13. > :06:17.of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would
:06:18. > :06:21.otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on
:06:22. > :06:27.the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not
:06:28. > :06:34.entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are
:06:35. > :06:38.completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to
:06:39. > :06:43.think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage
:06:44. > :06:48.a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people
:06:49. > :06:54.don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP
:06:55. > :06:57.photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more
:06:58. > :07:01.motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.
:07:02. > :07:09.Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as
:07:10. > :07:13.Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed
:07:14. > :07:17.with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do
:07:18. > :07:20.it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we
:07:21. > :07:26.want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left
:07:27. > :07:30.the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these
:07:31. > :07:35.elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how
:07:36. > :07:42.many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is
:07:43. > :07:46.saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If
:07:47. > :07:49.that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street
:07:50. > :07:53.are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP
:07:54. > :08:00.but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of
:08:01. > :08:04.polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which
:08:05. > :08:08.may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the
:08:09. > :08:13.answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask
:08:14. > :08:19.people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking
:08:20. > :08:22.that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general
:08:23. > :08:27.election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think
:08:28. > :08:31.the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term
:08:32. > :08:36.parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros
:08:37. > :08:41.will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year, or
:08:42. > :08:46.indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the
:08:47. > :08:51.parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could
:08:52. > :08:56.be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a
:08:57. > :09:11.couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can
:09:12. > :09:14.see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP
:09:15. > :09:20.for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's
:09:21. > :09:25.policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr
:09:26. > :09:29.Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there
:09:30. > :09:36.will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot
:09:37. > :09:44.yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is
:09:45. > :09:48.plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the
:09:49. > :09:54.Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a
:09:55. > :10:00.Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for
:10:01. > :10:08.each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg
:10:09. > :10:11.loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially
:10:12. > :10:16.to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.
:10:17. > :10:20.I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two
:10:21. > :10:25.prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the
:10:26. > :10:30.leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick
:10:31. > :10:33.Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive
:10:34. > :10:38.proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.
:10:39. > :10:43.Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble
:10:44. > :10:47.for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the
:10:48. > :10:53.photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden
:10:54. > :10:58.with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to
:10:59. > :11:03.appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear
:11:04. > :11:07.rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know
:11:08. > :11:11.what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,
:11:12. > :11:15.all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of
:11:16. > :11:20.the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are
:11:21. > :11:23.immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really
:11:24. > :11:28.talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you
:11:29. > :11:32.say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this
:11:33. > :11:36.calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages
:11:37. > :11:44.and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The
:11:45. > :11:46.calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt
:11:47. > :11:51.Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack
:11:52. > :11:57.Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on
:11:58. > :12:01.that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,
:12:02. > :12:05.which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so
:12:06. > :12:10.everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed
:12:11. > :12:14.Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is
:12:15. > :12:19.difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the
:12:20. > :12:24.Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are
:12:25. > :12:27.much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in
:12:28. > :12:33.the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do
:12:34. > :12:40.matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in
:12:41. > :12:44.the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on
:12:45. > :12:47.the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of
:12:48. > :12:54.confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for
:12:55. > :13:02.years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls
:13:03. > :13:06.could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the
:13:07. > :13:10.election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for
:13:11. > :13:15.that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday.
:13:16. > :13:19.There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC,
:13:20. > :13:22.Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the
:13:23. > :13:27.European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow
:13:28. > :13:30.lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for
:13:31. > :13:34.The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday