:00:40. > :00:45.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:46. > :00:52.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:53. > :00:55.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:56. > :01:00.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:01. > :01:05.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:06. > :01:12.Later in the programme: Voting was henhouse.
:01:13. > :01:16.Later in the programme: Voting was on Thursday - we look ahead to the
:01:17. > :01:18.result of the European elections. And we ask "Who watches over
:01:19. > :01:22.result of the European elections. hall spread, the Liberal Democrats
:01:23. > :01:30.disappeared, UKIP failed to show. More analysis in just over half an
:01:31. > :01:35.hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics
:01:36. > :01:43.henhouse, our own boot should -- bunch of headless chickens. Nick
:01:44. > :01:47.Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The Liberal Democrats lost over 300
:01:48. > :01:50.councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the
:01:51. > :01:54.local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the
:01:55. > :01:56.country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar
:01:57. > :02:02.comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but
:02:03. > :02:06.growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go.
:02:07. > :02:11.This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.
:02:12. > :02:19.People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils
:02:20. > :02:23.and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been
:02:24. > :02:32.trustworthy in leadership. Do you trust him? He has lacked bone on
:02:33. > :02:36.significant issues that are the core values of our party.
:02:37. > :02:40.This is how the party president responded.
:02:41. > :02:47.At this time, it would be foolish for us as a party to turn in on
:02:48. > :02:51.ourselves. What has separated us from the Conservatives is, while
:02:52. > :02:55.they have been like cats in a sack, we have stood united, and that is
:02:56. > :03:01.what we will continue to do. The major reason why is because we
:03:02. > :03:10.consented to the coalition, unlike the Conservatives. We had a vote,
:03:11. > :03:17.and a full conference. Is there a growing question over
:03:18. > :03:23.Nick Clegg's leadership? Different people have different views. My own
:03:24. > :03:27.view is I need to consult my own activists and members before coming
:03:28. > :03:31.to a conclusion. I am looking at holding a meeting for us to discuss
:03:32. > :03:36.the issue. I have been told by some people they do not think a meeting
:03:37. > :03:40.is required, they think he should stay, and other people have decided
:03:41. > :03:45.he should go. As a responsible Democrat, I should consult the
:03:46. > :03:50.members here before coming to my conclusions. What is your view at
:03:51. > :03:56.the moment? I have got to listen to my members. But you must have some
:03:57. > :04:03.kind of you. Because I have an open mind, I do not think he must stay, I
:04:04. > :04:09.am willing to say I have not made my mind up. From a news point of view,
:04:10. > :04:15.that is my official position. I can assure you there is not much news in
:04:16. > :04:21.that! I said earlier I am not going to say he must go must stay, I am
:04:22. > :04:24.consulting my members. But you must have some kind of view of your own
:04:25. > :04:29.before you have listened to your members. There are people who are
:04:30. > :04:33.wrongfully sanctioned and end up using food banks, I am upset about
:04:34. > :04:39.that, because we should not allow... I do not mind having a
:04:40. > :04:42.sanctioning system, that I get constituents who are put in this
:04:43. > :04:50.position, we should not accept that. I rebel on the issue of a referendum
:04:51. > :04:53.on membership of the EU. I am also concerned about the way the rules
:04:54. > :04:58.have been changed in terms of how parents are treated in their ability
:04:59. > :05:04.to take children to funerals out of school time. There are questions
:05:05. > :05:10.about the leader's responsible T for those policies. Nick Clegg has made
:05:11. > :05:15.it clear he is a staunch pro-European, he wants the Liberal
:05:16. > :05:19.Democrats to be in, he does not want a referendum, if you lose a chunk of
:05:20. > :05:23.your MEPs tonight, what does that say about how in June you are with
:05:24. > :05:29.written public opinion? There are issues with how you publish your
:05:30. > :05:34.policies. I do not agree 100% with what the government is doing or with
:05:35. > :05:38.what Nick Clegg says. I do think we should stay within the EU, because
:05:39. > :05:44.the alternative means we have less control over our borders. There is a
:05:45. > :05:51.presentational issue, because what UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse
:05:52. > :05:55.in terms of control of borders, which is their main reason for
:05:56. > :06:01.wanting to leave, which is strange. There are debate issues, but I have
:06:02. > :06:04.got personal concerns, I do worry about the impact on my constituents
:06:05. > :06:11.when they face wrongful sanctions. You have said that. A fellow Liberal
:06:12. > :06:15.Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg to a general at the Somme, causing
:06:16. > :06:22.carnage amongst the troops. I am more interested in the policy
:06:23. > :06:25.issues, are we doing the right things? I do think the coalition was
:06:26. > :06:30.essential, we had to rescue the country from financial problems. My
:06:31. > :06:35.own view on the issue of student finance, we did the right thing, in
:06:36. > :06:40.accordance with the pledge, which was to get a better system, more
:06:41. > :06:45.students are going to university, and more from disadvantaged
:06:46. > :06:49.backgrounds. But there are issues. But Nick Clegg survive as leader
:06:50. > :06:54.through till the next election? It depends what odds you will give me!
:06:55. > :06:59.If you are not going to give me is, I am not going to get! If you listen
:07:00. > :07:05.to John hemming, he has got nothing to worry about. He does have
:07:06. > :07:14.something to worry about, they lost 300 seats, on the uniform swing, you
:07:15. > :07:18.would see people like Vince cable and Simon Hughes lose their seats.
:07:19. > :07:22.But nobody wants to be the one to we'll be nice, they would rather
:07:23. > :07:27.wait until after the next election, and then rebuild the party. Yes,
:07:28. > :07:34.there is no chance of him walking away. Somebody like Tim Farron or
:07:35. > :07:38.Vince Cable, whoever the successor is, though have to close the dagger
:07:39. > :07:43.ten months before an election, do they want that spectacle? If I were
:07:44. > :07:47.Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is reasonably obvious that the
:07:48. > :07:52.left-wing voters who defect had towards the Labour Party in 2010
:07:53. > :07:56.will not return while he is leader. And anything he was going to achieve
:07:57. > :08:02.historically, the already has done. Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed
:08:03. > :08:07.Miliband or David Cameron, he has transformed the identity of the
:08:08. > :08:11.party, they are in government. Had it not been for him, they would have
:08:12. > :08:17.continued to be the main protest party, rather than a party of
:08:18. > :08:22.government. So he has got to take it all the way through until the
:08:23. > :08:27.election. If he left now, he would look like he was a tenant in the
:08:28. > :08:30.conservative house. What we are seeing is an operation to
:08:31. > :08:36.destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a Liberal Democrat one, so it is
:08:37. > :08:39.chaotic. There are people who have never really been reconciled to the
:08:40. > :08:48.coalition and to Nick Clegg, they are pushing for this. What is Nick
:08:49. > :08:53.Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron? -- what is Vince Cable going to do?
:08:54. > :09:00.Vince Cable is in China, on a business trip. It is like John
:09:01. > :09:05.Major's toothache in 1990. What is Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick
:09:06. > :09:10.Clegg, because he knows that his best chances of being leader are as
:09:11. > :09:16.the Westland candidate, the person who picks up the mess in a year.
:09:17. > :09:22.Vince Cable's only opportunity is on this side of the election. But you
:09:23. > :09:28.say they are not a party of government, but what looks more
:09:29. > :09:34.likely is overall the -- is no overall control. You might find a
:09:35. > :09:38.common mission looking appealing. They could still hold the balance of
:09:39. > :09:45.power. A lot of people in the Labour Party might say, let's just have a
:09:46. > :09:49.minority government. 30 odds and sods who will not turn up to vote.
:09:50. > :09:56.If they want to be up until 3am every morning, be like that! When
:09:57. > :10:04.you were in short trousers, it was like that every night, it was great
:10:05. > :10:07.fun! The Liberal Democrats will not provide confidence to a minority
:10:08. > :10:12.government, they will pull the plug and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg
:10:13. > :10:21.lead the Liberal Democrats into the next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am
:10:22. > :10:25.sorry, Nick Clegg, you are finished! We will speak to Paddy
:10:26. > :10:29.Ashdown in the second part of the show to speak about the Liberal
:10:30. > :10:33.Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could not deliver the promised earthquake,
:10:34. > :10:37.but it produced enough shock waves to discombobulated the established
:10:38. > :10:40.parties. They are struggling to work out how to deal with them. We
:10:41. > :10:54.watched it all unfold. Behind the scenes of any election
:10:55. > :10:58.night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and
:10:59. > :11:02.logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed
:11:03. > :11:08.to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and
:11:09. > :11:12.take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,
:11:13. > :11:18.kept and primed for the results. What this does not show due is the
:11:19. > :11:23.exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are
:11:24. > :11:25.doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the
:11:26. > :11:29.electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into
:11:30. > :11:34.intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which
:11:35. > :11:39.ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,
:11:40. > :11:45.welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become
:11:46. > :11:50.for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we
:11:51. > :11:56.will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party
:11:57. > :12:00.is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even
:12:01. > :12:04.hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses
:12:05. > :12:08.to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to
:12:09. > :12:11.questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of
:12:12. > :12:16.Commons, the fox that wants to get in has ruffled feathers. The reason
:12:17. > :12:23.they have had amazing success, a rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna
:12:24. > :12:29.says about being a repository, but they have also managed to sound like
:12:30. > :12:32.human beings, and that his Nigel Farage's eight victory. For some
:12:33. > :12:37.conservatives, a pact was the best form of defence. It would be
:12:38. > :12:41.preferable if all members of UKIP and voters became Tories overnight.
:12:42. > :12:47.That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to
:12:48. > :12:54.do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.
:12:55. > :12:57.Labour had successes, but nobody but they're wizards of Spain was
:12:58. > :13:02.completely buying a big success story. Gaffes behind the scenes and
:13:03. > :13:08.strategic errors were levelled at those who have managed the campaign.
:13:09. > :13:12.They have played a clever game, you shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP
:13:13. > :13:17.does quite well but not well enough, that helps Labour get in. That kind
:13:18. > :13:23.of mindset will not win the general election, and we saw that in the tap
:13:24. > :13:28.ticks and strategy, and that is why, on our leaflets for the European
:13:29. > :13:33.elections, we chose deliberately not to attack UKIP, that was a bad
:13:34. > :13:39.error. Not so, so somebody who has been in that spotlight. If you look
:13:40. > :13:43.at the electoral maths, UKIP will still be aiming at the Tories in a
:13:44. > :13:47.general election. They are the second party in Rotherham, Labour
:13:48. > :13:51.will always hold what the room, it is safe, there is no point being
:13:52. > :13:56.second in a safe seat. UKIP have taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they
:13:57. > :14:01.will target. The question for the next election, can they make a
:14:02. > :14:07.challenge? The Tories will be under the gun from UKIP. The substance of
:14:08. > :14:11.these results is UKIP not in government, they do not have any
:14:12. > :14:16.MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased
:14:17. > :14:18.to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do
:14:19. > :14:40.you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and
:14:41. > :14:47.Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?
:14:48. > :14:50.No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon,
:14:51. > :15:00.Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne
:15:01. > :15:05.Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that
:15:06. > :15:15.in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will
:15:16. > :15:19.be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis
:15:20. > :15:25.of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,
:15:26. > :15:29.only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon
:15:30. > :15:36.Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is
:15:37. > :15:44.one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key
:15:45. > :15:50.marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but
:15:51. > :15:55.we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you
:15:56. > :16:00.were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.
:16:01. > :16:05.That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the
:16:06. > :16:10.Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick
:16:11. > :16:14.O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it wasn't an
:16:15. > :16:18.earthquake. It is definitely true that Labour did well in London but
:16:19. > :16:22.that is a double-edged sword because you have an increasing disconnect
:16:23. > :16:29.between the metropolis and the rest of the country. Our vote share was
:16:30. > :16:33.somewhat depressed not just because London is one of our weakest part of
:16:34. > :16:39.the country but because most of the warts in London were 3-member wards
:16:40. > :16:43.and we were typically only putting up one candidate. Even when they
:16:44. > :16:50.fared well, it still tracked down the projected national share. I
:16:51. > :16:55.think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the
:16:56. > :17:09.target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said
:17:10. > :17:16.that basically smart folk don't vote for UKIP. I think that is a tiny
:17:17. > :17:20.fragment of what she said. She said London is its own entity and is
:17:21. > :17:24.increasingly different from the rest of the country. One of the things
:17:25. > :17:29.that is different from London as opposed to Rotherham is that we have
:17:30. > :17:36.very big parties. I have a few thousand people in mind, Rotherham
:17:37. > :17:41.has a few hundred. People don't go and knock on doors and talk to
:17:42. > :17:46.people, in London we have always had to do that. London is full of young
:17:47. > :17:50.voters, full of ethnically diverse voters, that is why you are not
:17:51. > :17:56.doing well, you don't appeal to live there. I think London in general has
:17:57. > :18:01.a very different attitude to mass uncontrolled immigration. Londoners
:18:02. > :18:12.know that if an immigrant moves in next door to you, to use Nigel
:18:13. > :18:17.Farage's phrase, the world doesn't end tomorrow. People in the big
:18:18. > :18:23.cities know that, that is the point. What Diane Abbott is doing is try to
:18:24. > :18:30.convince London of its moral superiority so I am delighted... It
:18:31. > :18:35.is a simple fact that immigrants do not end the world if they move in
:18:36. > :18:39.next door. The economic recovery is getting more robust by the month,
:18:40. > :18:45.you have a seriously to ship problem according to many people on your own
:18:46. > :18:54.site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote is as good as it gets. Those who go
:18:55. > :19:01.round bitching about Ed Miliband have been doing that before the
:19:02. > :19:11.result. We have all polled very well. Ed Miliband does not polled
:19:12. > :19:17.very well. He has actually fashioned some really effective policies.
:19:18. > :19:21.Unemployment is tumbling, inflation is falling, growth is strengthening,
:19:22. > :19:27.and you have a leader who claims there is a cost of living crisis and
:19:28. > :19:34.he doesn't have a clue about his own cost of living. I think that was
:19:35. > :19:43.poor staff work. That he doesn't know what goes in his own shopping
:19:44. > :19:50.basket? I think his own staff could have prepared him for that. My point
:19:51. > :19:57.is that the numbers are looking better, we know that, but people
:19:58. > :20:05.don't feel better off. Then why are all consumer index polls better?
:20:06. > :20:09.They are feeling confident. They may be saying that, but people are
:20:10. > :20:15.worried about their future, their children's future. That is not what
:20:16. > :20:19.you buy today or tomorrow. If you ask people about their future and
:20:20. > :20:24.their children's future and prospects, they feel frightened.
:20:25. > :20:30.What will be a good result for you in the general election? We need to
:20:31. > :20:34.see Nigel Farage elected as an MP and he mustn't go there on his own.
:20:35. > :20:41.How many people do you think will be with him? Who knows, but we will
:20:42. > :20:45.have 20 to 30 target seat and if you put together the clusters we got in
:20:46. > :20:49.last year's County elections with the one we got this year, you can
:20:50. > :20:54.have a good guess at where they are. A number of people who voted
:20:55. > :20:59.for you and Thursday say they are going to back to the three main
:21:00. > :21:07.parties in general election. It would be foolish of me to say that
:21:08. > :21:15.they are going to stay. Some have said they have just lent their votes
:21:16. > :21:23.but voters hate being taken for granted. It is up to us to broaden
:21:24. > :21:29.our agenda, and build on our strengths, work on our weaknesses.
:21:30. > :21:34.Ed Miliband may have to do a deal with him. We have been here before,
:21:35. > :21:40.but the UKIP bubble is going to burst and that may happen around the
:21:41. > :21:47.time of Newark. Are you going to win Newark now? We are going to give it
:21:48. > :21:55.a really good crack. We love being the underdog, we don't see it as
:21:56. > :22:01.being the big goal -- the be all and end all. If you're going to get a
:22:02. > :22:10.big bounce off the elections, not to go and win your shows people who
:22:11. > :22:15.govern in Parliament, they don't vote for you. It is Labour who have
:22:16. > :22:18.given up the campaign already so we need a really big swing in our
:22:19. > :22:28.favour and we will give it a great crack. The bubble will burst at the
:22:29. > :22:37.Newark by-election, trust me. Have you been to Newark? Newark will see
:22:38. > :22:43.from local people... Where is it? It is outside the M25, I can tell you
:22:44. > :22:48.that. My point is that we are set for victory in 2015. I want to run
:22:49. > :22:54.this clip and get your take on it, an interview that Nigel Farage did
:22:55. > :22:58.with LBC. What they do is they have an auditor to make sure they spend
:22:59. > :23:06.their money in accordance with their rules. You say that is if there is
:23:07. > :23:14.something wrong with it. Hang on, hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is
:23:15. > :23:20.this a friend in the media or a member of the political class? Do
:23:21. > :23:28.you regret doing that now? What were you doing? No, I was trying to get
:23:29. > :23:34.Nigel Farage to a more important interview with Sunday Times that had
:23:35. > :23:43.painstakingly organised. He was on there? I have told the LBC people
:23:44. > :23:49.next door that he was running over. So you interrupted a live interview
:23:50. > :23:53.and you don't regret that? No, because just between us I wasn't a
:23:54. > :23:58.massive enthusiast for that interview taking place at all. I
:23:59. > :24:10.know what James O'Brien is like and I knew it wouldn't be particularly
:24:11. > :24:18.edifying. But your boss wasn't happy with the intervention. Sometimes the
:24:19. > :24:23.boss gets shirty. We all upset our boss every now and again, but anyway
:24:24. > :24:27.you could be an MEP by this time tomorrow and you won't have to do
:24:28. > :24:32.this job any more. You can then just count your salary and your expenses.
:24:33. > :24:37.I will make the contribution my party leader asked me to, to restore
:24:38. > :24:41.Britain to being a self-governing country. Are you going to stay in
:24:42. > :24:46.the job or not? I would not be able to do the job in the same way but I
:24:47. > :24:55.would maybe have some kind of overview. We will leave it there.
:24:56. > :25:01.Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman, produced a mammoth
:25:02. > :25:04.opinion poll of more than 26,000 voters in 26 marginal
:25:05. > :25:08.constituencies, crucial seat that will decide the outcome of the
:25:09. > :25:13.general election next year. In 26 constituencies people were asked
:25:14. > :25:27.which party's candidate they would support, and Labour took a healthy
:25:28. > :25:34.12 point lead, implying a swing of 6.5% from Conservatives to Labour
:25:35. > :25:39.from the last general election. That implies Labour would topple 83 Tory
:25:40. > :25:51.MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in second place in four seats, and
:25:52. > :25:56.three of them are Labour seats. Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of
:25:57. > :26:01.those who say they would vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last
:26:02. > :26:05.election. As many as have switched from Labour and the Lib Dems
:26:06. > :26:10.combined. The communities Secretary Eric
:26:11. > :26:15.Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft Paul that gives Labour a massive 12
:26:16. > :26:20.point lead in the crucial marginal constituencies, you would lose 83
:26:21. > :26:24.MPs if this was repeated in an election. It doesn't get worse than
:26:25. > :26:32.that, does it? Yesterday I went through that Paul in great detail,
:26:33. > :26:38.and what it shows is that in a number of key seats we are ahead,
:26:39. > :26:43.and somewhere behind, and I think is Michael rightly shows... You are
:26:44. > :26:47.behind in most of them. This is a snapshot and we have a year in which
:26:48. > :26:51.the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say
:26:52. > :26:55.to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just
:26:56. > :27:05.around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and
:27:06. > :27:08.we need to redouble our efforts. The Tory brand is dying in major parts
:27:09. > :27:12.of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,
:27:13. > :27:22.huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true
:27:23. > :27:27.with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In
:27:28. > :27:33.terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.
:27:34. > :27:39.After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has
:27:40. > :27:44.ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city
:27:45. > :27:50.of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have
:27:51. > :27:55.more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more
:27:56. > :28:00.councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who
:28:01. > :28:05.say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at
:28:06. > :28:11.the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so
:28:12. > :28:15.disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we
:28:16. > :28:19.hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal
:28:20. > :28:25.Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we
:28:26. > :28:30.concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power
:28:31. > :28:35.and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum
:28:36. > :28:39.of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term
:28:40. > :28:44.economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.
:28:45. > :28:47.On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a
:28:48. > :28:57.single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it
:28:58. > :29:04.is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us
:29:05. > :29:09.they didn't, which is important... I am asking what possible Labour seat
:29:10. > :29:13.you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections
:29:14. > :29:17.are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger
:29:18. > :29:23.turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate
:29:24. > :29:27.to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the
:29:28. > :29:31.success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in
:29:32. > :29:37.their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel
:29:38. > :29:41.that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are
:29:42. > :29:45.defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like
:29:46. > :29:56.mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.
:29:57. > :30:01.We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give
:30:02. > :30:08.you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You
:30:09. > :30:14.promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it
:30:15. > :30:20.rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend
:30:21. > :30:26.to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I
:30:27. > :30:30.have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their
:30:31. > :30:36.national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have
:30:37. > :30:42.objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You
:30:43. > :30:50.made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People
:30:51. > :30:55.defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do
:30:56. > :30:59.not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your
:31:00. > :31:05.immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures
:31:06. > :31:11.that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,
:31:12. > :31:19.it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do
:31:20. > :31:24.you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the
:31:25. > :31:30.election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not
:31:31. > :31:35.know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and
:31:36. > :31:39.Europe, David Cameron has promised a referendum, he has vowed to resign
:31:40. > :31:45.if he does not deliver one, but still your voters vote for UKIP.
:31:46. > :31:54.There were reasons why people voted for UKIP. A great deal of anger
:31:55. > :31:56.about the political system, about the Metropolitan elite that they see
:31:57. > :32:02.running programmes like this and the political programmes. We need to
:32:03. > :32:11.listen to their concerns and address them. David Cameron has got a better
:32:12. > :32:17.record on delivery. He vetoed a treaty, he stopped us having to bail
:32:18. > :32:24.out the currency. Why are you likely to convert a night in the European
:32:25. > :32:28.elections? If you do come third, it will show they do not trust you on
:32:29. > :32:35.Europe. Next year, we will face a general election, about having money
:32:36. > :32:42.in people's pockets, about who will run the country. David Davis wants
:32:43. > :32:45.to China and get the voters to trust the Tories on the referendum, he was
:32:46. > :32:53.the pledge to be brought forward to 2016. He is a clever guy. But if you
:32:54. > :32:57.are going to try to negotiate a better deal to give the population a
:32:58. > :33:05.better choice, you cannot do that in a year, you will require two years.
:33:06. > :33:12.You are an Essex MP, you know about Essex people, it must be depressing
:33:13. > :33:17.that they are now voting for UKIP. I do not have any UKIP in my
:33:18. > :33:22.constituency. I felt bad to see Basildon go down and to see the
:33:23. > :33:30.leader go down. Do you know why that is? The Tory party does not resonate
:33:31. > :33:34.with the Essex people in the way that the Margaret Thatcher party
:33:35. > :33:38.did. That is why you did not get a majority in 2010 and why you will
:33:39. > :33:45.not win in 2015. We need to connect better. They will want to know about
:33:46. > :33:51.their children's future, will they have a job, a good education? When
:33:52. > :33:56.it comes to electing a national government, they do not want to see
:33:57. > :34:02.Ed Miliband in office. They are voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of
:34:03. > :34:07.what government you get, do you want to see David Cameron in number ten
:34:08. > :34:12.or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to see David Cameron. You only got 36%
:34:13. > :34:20.of the vote four years ago, your party, occurs you did not get the
:34:21. > :34:24.Essex people in the same numbers, like John Major or Margaret Thatcher
:34:25. > :34:32.did. You need more than 36% in 2015 to win the election. On Thursday,
:34:33. > :34:39.your share was 29%. We were 2% behind Labour. They did not do very
:34:40. > :34:47.well either. A year before, -- a year before the election in 1997,
:34:48. > :34:54.they were on 43%. It is highly deliver the votes. We have a
:34:55. > :34:57.campaign looking at the marginals. We know exactly where we are not
:34:58. > :35:02.doing as well as we should be. I am a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do
:35:03. > :35:06.you think he does this to be helpful? He is a great man and a
:35:07. > :35:13.good conservative, I am a good friend of his. I think that his
:35:14. > :35:18.publication was one of the best things that happened to the party.
:35:19. > :35:25.You got 36% of the vote last time, you are down to 29, you need 38 or
:35:26. > :35:33.39, you would get that if you had a pact with UKIP. There will be no
:35:34. > :35:38.pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a market stall, you should put your
:35:39. > :35:43.policies out there and you should not try to fix the market. Would you
:35:44. > :35:54.stop a local pact? There will be no pact with UKIP. None.
:35:55. > :36:00.It has just gone 11:35am. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland and
:36:01. > :36:05.Northern Ireland. Coming up here, we will speak to the
:36:06. > :36:20.Liberal Democrat election coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,
:36:21. > :36:28.Hello, and on the Sunday Politics Wales: After a damning report into
:36:29. > :36:32.two hospitals, we discuss how we guarantee standards in the NHS. We
:36:33. > :36:36.look ahead to the European election results. And are there barriers
:36:37. > :36:45.preventing Welsh women from entering the world of politics?
:36:46. > :36:49.The health service is there to watch over us. But who watches over the
:36:50. > :36:52.health service? This month, the Andrews Report highlighted failings
:36:53. > :36:55.at two hospitals in the Abertawe Bro Morgannwg health board. In doing so,
:36:56. > :36:58.it questioned the effectiveness of the watchdog Healthcare Inspectorate
:36:59. > :37:01.Wales, or HIW. Although part of the Welsh
:37:02. > :37:04.Government, HIW is an operationally independent inspector and regulator
:37:05. > :37:07.of all health care in Wales. But with the standard of care in
:37:08. > :37:12.hospitals under the spotlight, the future of the watchdog is being
:37:13. > :37:14.questioned. The Assembly's health care committee wants the Welsh
:37:15. > :37:19.Government to undertake a fundamental review of HIW. At First
:37:20. > :37:23.Minister's Question Time this week, Carwyn Jones was forced to respond
:37:24. > :37:29.to concerns about whether HIW was up to the job. The Health Inspectorate
:37:30. > :37:32.Wales was set up in the days when this body did not have primary
:37:33. > :37:37.lawmaking powers, so it was set up by Westminster and not ourselves.
:37:38. > :37:40.There is an opportunity now to make sure that anybody that looks at
:37:41. > :37:47.inspecting our hospitals in the future is as robust as this chamber
:37:48. > :37:51.would want. Joining me from London is Andrew RT
:37:52. > :37:54.Davies, leader of the Welsh Conservatives. And in the studio,
:37:55. > :37:57.Tony Beddow, a visiting professor at the University of South Wales
:37:58. > :38:04.Institute of Health and Social Care, and former special adviser to Edwina
:38:05. > :38:10.Hart when she was Health Minister. Andrew, let's start with just
:38:11. > :38:16.reflecting what the first Minister said there, that any body that
:38:17. > :38:22.inspects hospitals in Wales should have the confidence of the chamber.
:38:23. > :38:28.What do you take from his comments? Was quite surprised at lacklustre
:38:29. > :38:33.he's defence was of health care in Wales. We know there are problems.
:38:34. > :38:37.The report clearly identified serious failings in these hospitals,
:38:38. > :38:46.where patients said they were in hell and people were denied food and
:38:47. > :38:49.water and left in soiled beds. The first Minister has said that there
:38:50. > :38:55.may be big changes afoot, possibly even getting rid of Healthcare
:38:56. > :39:02.Inspectorate Wales. When you think of the time it has taken, Carwyn
:39:03. > :39:08.Jones has been in for five years. I am concerned that there is such a
:39:09. > :39:13.laissez faire attitude to this. The report clearly brought forward that
:39:14. > :39:18.the Healthcare Inspectorate Wales had gone into these hospitals and
:39:19. > :39:22.given them a clean bill of health, and yet Professor Andrews found
:39:23. > :39:28.serious failings. That cannot continue. Tony Beddow, this report,
:39:29. > :39:31.the Andrews Report into these hospitals, it does raise the
:39:32. > :39:36.question why do it Healthcare Inspectorate Wales not pick up on
:39:37. > :39:44.some pretty public issues two years ago. What lessons does that first
:39:45. > :39:48.and for the inspection regime here in Wales? The main lesson is that
:39:49. > :39:52.you have to build quality of health care delivery into the organisations
:39:53. > :39:56.that I doing be delivering. To try to operate on the basis of almost an
:39:57. > :40:02.external police force that is going to oversee the way that hospitals
:40:03. > :40:05.and family doctors and dentists and independent care providers, nursing
:40:06. > :40:12.agencies and all the things that Company macro have a responsibility
:40:13. > :40:17.for, is really a second-best option. It is fine to have an external body,
:40:18. > :40:20.and external resource to which those health care delivers can turn for
:40:21. > :40:25.help and support and guidance, but just to have someone come along and
:40:26. > :40:31.tell the afterwards things are not going particularly well when you
:40:32. > :40:36.horribly knew that already but were not delivered struggling to find the
:40:37. > :40:42.answers, it does not help. But schools, police, prisons all have
:40:43. > :40:49.some kind of expect -- Inspectorate who can go there and expose
:40:50. > :40:58.failures. Exposing failures is only half of the challenge. The other
:40:59. > :41:01.part of the challenge is asking why. Why haven't health care
:41:02. > :41:08.professionals held on to the values they had when they started their
:41:09. > :41:11.profession? Some of the hospitals and health care system are under
:41:12. > :41:14.strain. It would be much more helpful if we looked at the care
:41:15. > :41:19.system as a whole and then looked at white bits of it were being put
:41:20. > :41:22.under intolerable pressures. Andrew RT Davies, we know what you think of
:41:23. > :41:27.the Welsh Government's leadership of the NHS, but what are your
:41:28. > :41:32.solutions. If there are problems and it doesn't need to be a change in
:41:33. > :41:37.how we inspect hospitals, what are you proposing to do about it? There
:41:38. > :41:43.is an issue in the leadership in the NHS. Not just the Government but the
:41:44. > :41:49.executive side. We have now just had a new executive director of the NHS
:41:50. > :41:57.in Wales. I do think the NHS would have benefited from a fresh pair of
:41:58. > :42:01.eyes. If we go back to reorganisation. One of the cardinal
:42:02. > :42:10.sins of that reorganisation in 2009 with endocrine heart residing over
:42:11. > :42:17.it, -- the reorganisation by Edwina Hart in 2009 was... A lot of good
:42:18. > :42:20.people were thrown to the side in that review and ultimately, the
:42:21. > :42:24.community health councils across Wales were greatly weakened. We
:42:25. > :42:28.still have community health councils. We have Healthcare
:42:29. > :42:33.Inspectorate Wales, we have reviews of the type we are discussing here.
:42:34. > :42:36.So there is no end of people available to go into hospitals and
:42:37. > :42:39.show was the failings where they do exist. The system is, after all,
:42:40. > :42:46.exposing these failings, it is working. There is a lack of
:42:47. > :42:48.leadership at the heart of the NHS, both political and executive
:42:49. > :42:53.leadership, that has allowed this to continue. There is a lack of
:42:54. > :42:57.oversight in the professional side of the Inspectorate and that has
:42:58. > :43:01.been shown time and time again with failings in several district
:43:02. > :43:07.hospitals across Wales, not just the two identified by Professor Andrews.
:43:08. > :43:11.The community health care regime that existed previously had a huge
:43:12. > :43:15.talented workforce that assisted the professionals in driving up
:43:16. > :43:18.standards across our hospitals, and many of these people were discarded
:43:19. > :43:22.by the reorganisation that went on, and the structure of many of those
:43:23. > :43:27.health councils now are dominated by councillors who, let's face it, have
:43:28. > :43:30.plenty to do running their local authorities. Tony Beddow, you were
:43:31. > :43:35.an adviser to the Welsh Government at the time of that reorganisation.
:43:36. > :43:41.How's that reorganisation weakened the system? I do not think it has
:43:42. > :43:44.weakened the system altogether. What it has done is bring together the
:43:45. > :43:47.people who plan services and look ahead to the future and are
:43:48. > :43:51.responsible for the change management processes that all health
:43:52. > :43:55.care systems are facing, and links them more closely with the people on
:43:56. > :44:01.the ground doing the work, so there is a better opportunity for the plan
:44:02. > :44:06.is to look ahead and say, these are the challenges we will be facing in
:44:07. > :44:10.a few years' time. But when he redesigned the structure we have
:44:11. > :44:14.now, got rid of the internal market, did enough thought going to, at that
:44:15. > :44:19.time, who is going to speak up for the patients in all of this? A lot
:44:20. > :44:24.of thought did go into it. One of the things we sometimes
:44:25. > :44:27.underestimate is that health care systems are among the most complex
:44:28. > :44:34.challenges that you can face in management terms. One of the famous
:44:35. > :44:38.writers on organisations described them as the most political and the
:44:39. > :44:44.most difficult organisations to manage. Sir John Harvey Jones, in
:44:45. > :44:47.his programme is on television, the one organisation he floundered with
:44:48. > :44:50.and could not find a way of helping both the hospital. They are very
:44:51. > :44:58.compact organisations. Nevertheless the reasons why this Andrews Report,
:44:59. > :45:02.for example, was commissioned, was that patients spoke up, via the
:45:03. > :45:06.media and politicians and that is what kicked it off. There does not
:45:07. > :45:11.seem to be anyone within the system that patients can turn to. I can
:45:12. > :45:15.accept that the quality assurance processes within boards and the
:45:16. > :45:18.professions does need to be recalibrated, if I can use that
:45:19. > :45:23.term, within the business of the health boards. From time to time I
:45:24. > :45:28.look at health board agendas and issues to do with the quality of
:45:29. > :45:31.service and dealing with possibly excessive mortality rates as they
:45:32. > :45:35.appeared on the stats and some of the care processes, that does
:45:36. > :45:40.figure, but I would accept that we need to think those internal board
:45:41. > :45:45.challenges, internal professional challenges. Doctors and nurses also
:45:46. > :45:49.have their concerns. We need to build backing. Andrew RT Davies, the
:45:50. > :45:54.way ahead now but for the Welsh Government. It has announced these
:45:55. > :45:58.spot checks of hospitals. The health committee has called for a
:45:59. > :46:01.fundamental review of HIW. The Welsh committee is looking at that. And
:46:02. > :46:06.the Welsh treatment is responding, despite the criticism you have
:46:07. > :46:08.levelled. They must have a clear independent enquiry into the
:46:09. > :46:14.standards of care within our district general hospitals and I
:46:15. > :46:18.fail to see why Carwyn Jones is failing to deliver that, other than
:46:19. > :46:23.he says it costs ?1 million. The second point is to show clear
:46:24. > :46:26.leadership, which clearly Carwyn Jones and various health ministers
:46:27. > :46:29.have failed to do, to instil confidence within the day-to-day
:46:30. > :46:34.running of our health service. Clinicians go to work to work at the
:46:35. > :46:37.top of their game. Everyone is dedicated to having a top-class
:46:38. > :46:39.health service within Wales but ultimately they have been let down
:46:40. > :46:50.by the lack of political leadership at the heart of the NHS in Wales.
:46:51. > :46:53.Thank you. Few people would argue with the
:46:54. > :46:56.ambition of getting more women elected in politics. But despite
:46:57. > :46:59.good intentions, achieving equality is proving difficult. The Electoral
:47:00. > :47:02.Reform Society has being doing some calculations on the likely number of
:47:03. > :47:05.women we'll send to Westminster after the General Election next
:47:06. > :47:07.year. Here's Bethan Lewis with a summary.
:47:08. > :47:10.Though at one time, half the Assembly members in Cardiff Bay were
:47:11. > :47:13.women, Wales has only ever elected 13 women to Westminster. At the
:47:14. > :47:19.moment, there are seven female MPs representing Welsh constituencies.
:47:20. > :47:23.The Electoral Reform Society has estimated the likely picture after
:47:24. > :47:30.we go to the polls in next May's UK General Election. Their best guess
:47:31. > :47:38.is that 11 women will be elected from Wales next time. It could be as
:47:39. > :47:41.high as 14, they say, but of course it could be lower, too. It's likely
:47:42. > :47:45.that Labour's use of some all-women short lists to select candidates has
:47:46. > :47:51.boosted the number of women in winnable seats. A bitter row in
:47:52. > :47:54.Blaenau Gwent in 2005 lead to Labour's Peter Lowe leaving the
:47:55. > :48:02.party and standing as an independent. It showed how divisive
:48:03. > :48:05.all-women short lists can be. But according to a prominent equality
:48:06. > :48:11.campaigner, positive action is the only way to get more women to
:48:12. > :48:14.Parliament. We could carry on making tremendously slow progress, or we
:48:15. > :48:24.could do something positive so that our elected institutions look like
:48:25. > :48:28.the people they represent. And that means having a good mixture of men
:48:29. > :48:31.and women. Joining me now is Stephen Brooks
:48:32. > :48:35.from the Electoral Reform Society, and the Plaid Cymru AM Jocelyn
:48:36. > :48:41.Davies - a member of the Assembly's Communities and Equality Committee.
:48:42. > :48:48.Stephen Brooks, your research suggests the number of MPs will go
:48:49. > :48:57.from seven to 11. -- the research suggests. That is a good record? It
:48:58. > :49:05.is a good record up until 1997 we only had one female MP at a time. We
:49:06. > :49:10.have had 13 altogether. Yes. But at this rate of progress we will have
:49:11. > :49:14.to wait until 2030 until we see equal men and women in Parliament.
:49:15. > :49:23.How does Wales compared with other nations? We are the worst of the UK.
:49:24. > :49:28.It is below the UK average of 22.2%. Why is that, Jocelyn Davies? All
:49:29. > :49:34.sorts of reasons. Some women are put off, I think, as there are barriers
:49:35. > :49:42.there, financial barriers, training. I think sometimes the trail --
:49:43. > :49:46.portrayal of what politicians do. Turn on the television or the radio
:49:47. > :49:52.and it is often men are doing together, which is not very
:49:53. > :50:02.inviting. But that is only a part of what politicians do. But it looks
:50:03. > :50:05.intimidating. Yes, and they call Westminster the Bearpit. Women are
:50:06. > :50:12.judged on the national stage of how they look, any gas they have made,
:50:13. > :50:16.on their hair... It puts women off. I agree with what is being said
:50:17. > :50:21.there, that you have a society that is just over half women, so why
:50:22. > :50:25.haven't we got more women in public life? Is it issued represent the
:50:26. > :50:31.society and all political parties, I think, have tried to make gains. We
:50:32. > :50:35.should not be too harsh on ourselves in Wales, though, because we did
:50:36. > :50:41.have four short while quality in the Assembly. We did. But that has slid
:50:42. > :50:47.back somewhat, so what needs to be done to put it right? Yes, we did in
:50:48. > :50:51.the first Assembly. That was because of positive action the parties took.
:50:52. > :50:55.It has slid back and I think we will see women leaving this time round
:50:56. > :50:58.and it will slide back even more. I am firmly coming round to the idea
:50:59. > :51:05.that we should be thinking about legislating on this. If you have a
:51:06. > :51:10.PR system, you can do... And I know other countries have done so, in
:51:11. > :51:16.Spain, for example, in the party lists, no one gender can have more
:51:17. > :51:20.than 60% of the places on it. Seven law that parties must put forward a
:51:21. > :51:23.percentage of female candidates? Yes, and parties would then
:51:24. > :51:27.definitely have to step up to the plate. There would be certain
:51:28. > :51:35.structural issues you would have to address, but... The gains being made
:51:36. > :51:40.are so slow, even if they are in the right direction. They are so slow
:51:41. > :51:47.that it is completely unacceptable. Has not been tried and succeeded
:51:48. > :51:51.anywhere else? Some countries like Spain do debate. I am not entirely
:51:52. > :51:56.convinced that is what we need to do here. Parties need to address all
:51:57. > :52:02.other measures they can do to try to get women into politics. I accept
:52:03. > :52:07.that things are going to slow. In local Government we will have to
:52:08. > :52:13.wait until 2076 for a quality in our councils. There was an enquiry into
:52:14. > :52:18.how to get women into more local politics. It suggested political
:52:19. > :52:27.parties should sign up to a target that 40% of their candidates in
:52:28. > :52:30.their areas should be women. Only Labour have signed up. How do you
:52:31. > :52:34.increase the pressure on them to make them do that, if progress has
:52:35. > :52:40.been so slow? There has to be a point where you start to think about
:52:41. > :52:43.legislation? We are still a long way from legislation. Political parties
:52:44. > :52:47.can do activities and things to get more women involved. We have had a
:52:48. > :52:54.flavour there of how difficult it can be for political parties to
:52:55. > :53:00.change their procedures. It seems to be a difficult issue. Yes, and type
:53:01. > :53:04.-- I was at a conference this week where this issue was discussed. A
:53:05. > :53:10.lot of Labour Party members accept that there need to be more women and
:53:11. > :53:15.in principle they support all-women shortlists. But the activists say
:53:16. > :53:21.they want to see more transparency, and to know why some constituencies
:53:22. > :53:26.do not select women as candidates. Members need to be engaged a lot
:53:27. > :53:30.more about what is going on. The first past the post system...
:53:31. > :53:35.Constituencies are made up of volunteers. In a hustings normally,
:53:36. > :53:40.where you have that kind of match or sorted firebrand speech and then
:53:41. > :53:45.answering questions and so on, and then... But that is the system that
:53:46. > :53:49.we have, so what is your party going to be doing to promote women for the
:53:50. > :54:00.next election, next year? What we have done is... We the one winnable
:54:01. > :54:08.seat -- with the one winnable seat, you have three male MPs. We are
:54:09. > :54:13.likely to have a woman MP for the very first time in Plaid Cymru. We
:54:14. > :54:17.have done no positive discrimination at all for Westminster in terms of
:54:18. > :54:22.selection, and we are encouraging women to come forward. The thing
:54:23. > :54:27.about encouraging women, they are more likely to come forward if a man
:54:28. > :54:33.encourages them. It is important as well that men run with this, too.
:54:34. > :54:36.In the early hours of Monday morning, we will find out who the
:54:37. > :54:40.winners are in the European elections. Most European Union
:54:41. > :54:46.countries operating today. Polling took place in Wales and
:54:47. > :54:55.across the UK on Thursday. Votes will be counted tonight. The Welsh
:54:56. > :55:00.result is published just after midnight. The outcome of the
:55:01. > :55:05.elections will be announced at the same time across Europe. Turnout in
:55:06. > :55:12.Wales was 32%, a little higher than the 30.5% who turned out in 2009.
:55:13. > :55:35.Merthyr Tydfil and Elaine Eich went at the lowest turnout. Labour
:55:36. > :55:40.secured to share --... The Conservatives topped the poll last
:55:41. > :55:44.time round, prompting a visit by David Cameron. Labour won the second
:55:45. > :55:48.seed. Plaid Cymru took the third, with UKIP taking the fourth and
:55:49. > :55:52.getting its first ever elected representative in Wales. The Liberal
:55:53. > :55:59.Democrats are gay and failed to win a European seat in Wales. Will it be
:56:00. > :56:09.all change -- the Liberal Democrats again failed to win a European seat
:56:10. > :56:14.in Wales. We do not know the turnout.
:56:15. > :56:17.Any conclusions we can draw? We were talking about more people being
:56:18. > :56:24.engaged in the election campaign this time than five years ago,
:56:25. > :56:28.primarily between the huge headlines generated by UKIP, but it has not
:56:29. > :56:32.been the case. That 2% five years ago and certainly nowhere near the
:56:33. > :56:38.peak of the turnout we have seen in the past in Wales for European
:56:39. > :56:42.elections, which has been 40%. In terms of what it will mean for the
:56:43. > :56:47.parties across Wales, the conventional wisdom is that a low
:56:48. > :56:54.turnout will help the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru in candy dullard
:56:55. > :56:58.particular. The real contest will be whether Labour can generate enough
:56:59. > :57:02.support for two seat, UKIP also, in which case either Plaid Cymru or the
:57:03. > :57:08.Conservatives are likely to lose one of their seats, and the reason why
:57:09. > :57:12.low turnout could favour Plaid Cymru and the Tories is that the
:57:13. > :57:17.likelihood is that those parties will hold onto their core support.
:57:18. > :57:24.In terms of the regional breakdown in Wales of the turnout, it has been
:57:25. > :57:28.high in areas like Anglesey, Glenys, these are areas that are strong for
:57:29. > :57:31.Plaid Cymru and it would suggest they have been successful in getting
:57:32. > :57:36.their vote out. We could also said that some of the areas where the
:57:37. > :57:40.Conservatives are strong as well, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire, they
:57:41. > :57:45.have done well as well, and turnout has been lowest in the Labour
:57:46. > :57:48.heartlands of the South East. What are the party saying? Labour I
:57:49. > :57:52.disappointed with the turnout after what they are saying has been their
:57:53. > :58:00.biggest European election campaign so far. The Conservatives are
:58:01. > :58:08.optimistic that they can get case when burnt re-elected and they said
:58:09. > :58:13.they feel Labour have not generated enough votes. -- they can get swing
:58:14. > :58:21.burnt re-elected. Plaid Cymru have been successful in getting their
:58:22. > :58:25.vote out but they have been cautious not to underestimate UKIP. UKIP made
:58:26. > :58:31.a big impact in the English local elections. Can we read across from
:58:32. > :58:36.that to Wales? It is the big question. They have made a big play
:58:37. > :58:41.on the disillusionment with the way the EU fund has been spent in Wales
:58:42. > :58:46.over the years. They are insisting that immigration is as big a subject
:58:47. > :58:50.on the doorstep in Wales as it is in England, despite the fact that
:58:51. > :58:54.immigration levels are generally at a lower level than they are in parts
:58:55. > :58:59.of England. From Labour's perspective, they did reasonably
:59:00. > :59:07.well. If they can win two seats, it is a huge boost for Labour. Q. --
:59:08. > :59:10.thank you. And don't forget, is a huge boost for Labour. Q. --
:59:11. > :59:13.benefits system to make it contributory. Thank you. With that,
:59:14. > :59:25.back to you, Andrew. Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib
:59:26. > :59:30.Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships, as we reported at the top of the
:59:31. > :59:35.show, and tonight it could get even worse when we get the results of the
:59:36. > :59:40.European elections. Paddy Ashdown, former Lib Dem leader, joins me now
:59:41. > :59:44.from our Westminster studio. Something has to change for the Lib
:59:45. > :59:52.Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change what will it be? The messages we
:59:53. > :00:04.have about reducing tax on the poorest, they now have traction. We
:00:05. > :00:10.have been on many programmes of this sort before, this idea that has been
:00:11. > :00:14.put about by these people who are calling for a leadership election is
:00:15. > :00:19.the silliest idea I have heard in my political career. It is not serious
:00:20. > :00:23.politics. This is the moment when we need to get out with a really good
:00:24. > :00:29.message and campaign through the summer in the context of the general
:00:30. > :00:37.election. Spending it on a divisive leadership contest is ridiculous. At
:00:38. > :00:46.the very moment when our sacrifices are beginning to gain traction, we
:00:47. > :00:51.turn in on ourselves. The question is, can the Liberal Democrats hack
:00:52. > :00:57.being in government? If we were to take this step, the anther would be
:00:58. > :01:02.no, and that would damage the party forever. It is clearly a problem,
:01:03. > :01:07.you have had to come out and defend Nick Clegg, we have not even had the
:01:08. > :01:14.European election results yet. It could get even worse by midnight. I
:01:15. > :01:18.have been up here anyway, to argue the party's case in the context of
:01:19. > :01:27.tonight. Let me try to put this in scale. We have a website which
:01:28. > :01:32.people can join to show their ascent to the fact that they like cake, it
:01:33. > :01:37.is called Liberal Democrats like cake, it has more people signed up
:01:38. > :01:44.than this website that is calling for a leadership election. Something
:01:45. > :01:50.like 200, of course this happens from time to time, the wonder is you
:01:51. > :01:53.are talking -- you are taking it seriously. Your colleagues are
:01:54. > :01:59.taking it seriously, including sitting MPs. People trot out a list
:02:00. > :02:04.of achievements that the party would like to be associated with, he began
:02:05. > :02:10.doing just that, but you have been doing that for months, if not for
:02:11. > :02:14.over a year, your ratings in the polls are terrible, you had a
:02:15. > :02:18.terrible local election, and you will probably have a terrible
:02:19. > :02:22.European election. It will cut through much better in the context
:02:23. > :02:27.of an election, we have been talking about the European elections. We
:02:28. > :02:35.have been here a long time, let me take you back, we have had tough
:02:36. > :02:40.times, in 1989, we came last in every constituency in Britain, save
:02:41. > :02:48.one, behind the Green party. One or two voices said, you have got to
:02:49. > :02:53.ditch the leader, me, you had one of them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I
:02:54. > :02:57.recall. One or two said we had to change course, but we stood our
:02:58. > :03:00.ground, and in the general election we not only re-established our
:03:01. > :03:06.position from a base of almost nothing, we laid the basis and
:03:07. > :03:11.foundation for doubling our seats in 1997. That is what the party can do,
:03:12. > :03:20.they have a great message, and insert of wasting the summer and
:03:21. > :03:26.autumn on a leadership contest, we should be doing that. Nick Clegg had
:03:27. > :03:31.two opportunities to put part of that message across in the debate
:03:32. > :03:37.over Europe, but the party poll ratings fell after that. What Nick
:03:38. > :03:46.elected us to try to fill a vacuum of antique European rhetoric. And he
:03:47. > :03:50.lost. He could not change the best part of a generation of
:03:51. > :03:55.anti-European propaganda in a couple of performances? He lost the second
:03:56. > :04:00.debate more than the first. It is a long-term programme. Nick Clegg had
:04:01. > :04:09.the courage to take us into government. He took that decision
:04:10. > :04:14.before the party and gained 75, 80% support in a democratic vote. He has
:04:15. > :04:22.led the party with outstanding judgement. He has showed almost
:04:23. > :04:25.incredible grace under fire, being attacked from all sides, because
:04:26. > :04:30.some people hate the coalition, and he has the courage to do what no
:04:31. > :04:34.other Liberal Democrat leader has done, to stand up before the British
:04:35. > :04:42.people and say unequivocally, we are in favour of Europe. He is a man of
:04:43. > :04:47.courage, integrity, decency, he is one of the best prime ministers
:04:48. > :04:52.Britain has not got. In the context of a general election, that will go
:04:53. > :04:57.through. I am devoted to the man, he can do amazingly well in the general
:04:58. > :05:01.election. But he is losing local elections again and again, the
:05:02. > :05:05.European elections, and he is on track to lose the general election.
:05:06. > :05:12.European elections are not easy for us. Whatever happens tomorrow
:05:13. > :05:20.morning, it will not be bad -- as bad as 1989. We have had that line.
:05:21. > :05:26.In the context of a general election, we fought our way back,
:05:27. > :05:30.this time, we have been in government, we start from a higher
:05:31. > :05:33.base, we have a message to tell about how we alone have taken the
:05:34. > :05:38.tough decisions to get this country out of the worst economic mess it
:05:39. > :05:41.has ever seen, left to us by the Labour Party. We can go out in the
:05:42. > :05:47.context of a general election and fight for that. My guess is that the
:05:48. > :05:52.resurgence of the party in the context of a general election will
:05:53. > :05:59.be far greater than you are suggesting.
:06:00. > :06:06.We have done the Liberal Democrats, that move onto the other parties.
:06:07. > :06:10.How bad a leadership problem does Ed Miliband have? He has a continuation
:06:11. > :06:15.of a problem he has had for a long time. The Labour Party thought they
:06:16. > :06:19.had a soft lead, and they have the same situation, everybody is hanging
:06:20. > :06:23.on. They have to make a breakthrough. The big thing is that
:06:24. > :06:29.lots of people at Shadow Cabinet wish they had taken on UKIP, why was
:06:30. > :06:34.Labour turning its fire on the Liberal Democrats? They should have
:06:35. > :06:41.been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken seats from them, such as in
:06:42. > :06:45.Rotherham. They have finally woken up. I think there is a class war
:06:46. > :06:50.breaking out, the northerners have taken against Ed Miliband and the
:06:51. > :06:56.Metropolitan sophisticates around them... One Labour MP has said, we
:06:57. > :07:04.do not want these guacamole eating people from North London! A number
:07:05. > :07:08.doing that. They wanted to take the fight to UKIP, because UKIP is
:07:09. > :07:15.getting working-class, Northern Labour votes. John Mann said it was
:07:16. > :07:19.ridiculous that the Labour Party did not put posters in the North of
:07:20. > :07:25.England to say that Nigel Farage regarded Margaret Thatcher as his
:07:26. > :07:30.heroine. But in a funny way, those Northern Labour MPs are speaking for
:07:31. > :07:33.the South, because the Labour Party will only win the general election
:07:34. > :07:37.if it takes back those seats in the south, the south-east, a couple of
:07:38. > :07:44.seats in the south-west that Tony Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge
:07:45. > :07:52.that. It is important to say they did win the local elections, they
:07:53. > :07:57.got 31%, but that was only to bustle -- two points hang-up the
:07:58. > :08:02.Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38% in 1991, the year before John Major
:08:03. > :08:07.got the largest in of votes ever. There is unease in the shadow
:08:08. > :08:12.cabinet about why Ed Miliband did not take on UKIP on immigration
:08:13. > :08:17.earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we should not be calling UKIP names, we
:08:18. > :08:21.should be calling them out, and he would say he did call them out. The
:08:22. > :08:25.unease in the party has made the results worse for them than they
:08:26. > :08:31.should have been, they did pretty well on Thursday. Although UKIP took
:08:32. > :08:37.votes from them in safe seats, in the end, it will not make much
:08:38. > :08:43.difference. UKIP is taking votes from Tories in marginals. It made it
:08:44. > :08:48.appear that Labour have not done well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot
:08:49. > :08:53.of the Labour MPs who came out on Friday morning had been practising
:08:54. > :08:58.their lines in expectation of a disappointing result. In the north,
:08:59. > :09:02.I do not think UKIP's status of the main nonlabour right-wing party will
:09:03. > :09:09.damage Labour. If you have a majority of 25,000... But in the
:09:10. > :09:12.South and Midlands, UKIP could break the non-Tory vote in such a way as
:09:13. > :09:20.to cost Labour marginal seats that they would otherwise win. As for the
:09:21. > :09:25.Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116 or 17% of the popular vote in the
:09:26. > :09:34.European elections and fell to 3% in the general election. You mentioned
:09:35. > :09:39.Europe, the Tories are anticipating finishing third, they did not do
:09:40. > :09:45.well on Thursday, they seem to be putting everything on Europe, we
:09:46. > :09:50.will beat UKIP in Newark. That is the line I am getting from them. The
:09:51. > :09:55.Liberal Democrats and Labour are nowhere there, they both got 20% of
:09:56. > :10:00.the vote, the Tories got 53%, a majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need
:10:01. > :10:05.to do well to have an enormous increase on last time. This seed is
:10:06. > :10:12.a referendum on Tories against UKIP, which we have not seen so far. I was
:10:13. > :10:19.there for the rocky road packed. David Cameron gave a piece of rocky
:10:20. > :10:23.road to Boris Johnson, saying, you know you want it, Boris. The Tories
:10:24. > :10:32.must be a head, because at the bakery stores, the blue buns outsold
:10:33. > :10:38.the UKIP buns. Ed Miliband bit off more than he
:10:39. > :10:41.could chew when he turned launch into a budgeted last week, but he is
:10:42. > :10:58.not the first politician to make a meal of it.
:10:59. > :11:39.I love a hot pasty, the choice was to have a small one or a large one,
:11:40. > :11:46.and I opted for the large one, and very good it was, too.
:11:47. > :11:51.The significance of the Ed Miliband business is more about the media, we
:11:52. > :11:57.can amplify nothingness, but because the narrative is that Ed Miliband is
:11:58. > :12:02.accident prone, even eating a big concern which becomes an accident.
:12:03. > :12:06.He is deemed to be weird, so we find pictures that support the
:12:07. > :12:13.conclusion. It is a class issue, you reveal your social class by what you
:12:14. > :12:19.eat, what supermarket you go to. You can play somebody accurately.
:12:20. > :12:22.Politicians are largely of a different class from the voters, and
:12:23. > :12:29.as soon as you ask them about food, it becomes apparent. To thine own
:12:30. > :12:32.self be true, David Cameron pretending he was interested in
:12:33. > :12:37.Cornish pasties, he does the cooking at the weekend, lots of posh food,
:12:38. > :12:42.do not pretend to be something you are not. The problem for Ed Miliband
:12:43. > :12:47.with that picture, he has some abnormal people working for him, but
:12:48. > :12:52.what he does not have is a broadcast person who can spot those pictures.
:12:53. > :12:58.George Osborne hired Theo Rogers from the BBC, she has
:12:59. > :13:02.transformed... She may have been guilty of the burger, but she has
:13:03. > :13:08.transformed his image on TV. That is what Ed Miliband needs. You are
:13:09. > :13:12.correct, it Ed Miliband was 15 points ahead in the polls, screwing
:13:13. > :13:17.up the eating of a bacon sandwich would be seen as an endearing trait.
:13:18. > :13:22.We might not have even noticed it. That is all this week, you can get
:13:23. > :13:28.those European election results with David Dimbleby on vote went to 14
:13:29. > :13:34.from 9pm on the BBC News Channel, and from 11pm on BBC One. No
:13:35. > :13:36.programme next week, but we are back in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is
:13:37. > :14:13.the Sunday Politics. This week, Britain has voted for its
:14:14. > :14:14.Members of the European Parliament.