:00:37. > :00:43.Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.
:00:44. > :00:48.The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.
:00:49. > :00:50.The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.
:00:51. > :00:52.But the country now faces a de facto partition.
:00:53. > :00:55.What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?
:00:56. > :00:58.It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.
:00:59. > :01:02.But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?
:01:03. > :01:10.Both sides join us to go head to head.
:01:11. > :01:13.I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of
:01:14. > :01:15.that? Later in the programme, in his
:01:16. > :01:28.even Westminster, we'll be asking Later in the programme, in his
:01:29. > :01:30.In London, why the minority vote one Owen Smith says councils
:01:31. > :01:32.In London, why the minority vote one recent elections Labour, but recent
:01:33. > :01:43.support amongst people is bigger than assumed.
:01:44. > :01:46.The Sunni Islamist army known as ISIS is now in control
:01:47. > :01:49.of huge swathes of northern and western Iraq, including
:01:50. > :01:52.Until the weekend they looked like advancing relentlessly
:01:53. > :01:54.on Baghdad but that offensive has now been slowed or even halted
:01:55. > :01:59.The Iraqi army and its Shia milita allies vow that
:02:00. > :02:06.Baghdad will not be taken and that a counter-attack will soon begin.
:02:07. > :02:08.Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has to do something to
:02:09. > :02:10.reverse the humiliation of recent days, which saw
:02:11. > :02:16.his US-trained and equipped Iraqi army, which outnumbered
:02:17. > :02:20.the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or surrender when confronted by ISIS.
:02:21. > :02:22.The conflict has already created a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds
:02:23. > :02:32.The Kurds have used the conflict to consolidate their hold on their
:02:33. > :02:36.autonomous area in the north, parts of the west and the north are in the
:02:37. > :02:39.grip of ISIS control and the Shias are hunkering down in the east.
:02:40. > :02:41.All of which makes a three-way partition a real possibility with
:02:42. > :02:46.The US is moving another of its massive aircraft carrier
:02:47. > :02:48.battlefleets to the Gulf, though the White House shows no
:02:49. > :02:53.While Iran says it's ready to help its Shia allies
:02:54. > :02:55.and there are unconfoirmed reports that its revolutionary guard has
:02:56. > :03:08.Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's diplomatic editor Mark Urban.
:03:09. > :03:18.Let's start with some basics. Who are ISIS and why are they
:03:19. > :03:23.controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS is an extremist militant jihad
:03:24. > :03:27.organisation and they have a pure Islamic concept based on 14th
:03:28. > :03:31.century history and jurisprudence. What they want to do is correct --
:03:32. > :03:37.create this caliphate that do not recognise colonial boundaries so it
:03:38. > :03:40.involves Syria and Iraq, and they could go down to Lebanon and
:03:41. > :03:43.Palestine, that is all fair game as far as they are concerned. And they
:03:44. > :03:48.have this strict interpretation of Islam. The more interesting question
:03:49. > :03:56.is why have semi-Sunni Muslims, along with them, these are precisely
:03:57. > :04:01.the sort of people who in 2006, 2007, tribal leaders in the west of
:04:02. > :04:04.the country rose up against. It was called the Awakening and the
:04:05. > :04:10.Americans in power did and bankrolled it. These people turned
:04:11. > :04:13.against them and admired them in large numbers, so why do they have
:04:14. > :04:17.so many Sunni Muslims on their side? We hear about people going
:04:18. > :04:20.back to Mosul. I think the answer is a perception
:04:21. > :04:24.back to Mosul. I think the answer that the current government is
:04:25. > :04:27.ruling in sectarian interests, Shia Muslim interest, and the Sunni
:04:28. > :04:30.Muslims want self-determination and this is their best bet.
:04:31. > :04:33.Muslims want self-determination and this is their Let me put up this map
:04:34. > :04:36.to find out where we are going. We can see Mosul in the north, they
:04:37. > :04:46.took that, and then they started, South, reports that the crit was
:04:47. > :04:51.involved -- to grit -- to grit. What is the situation on the ground now?
:04:52. > :05:00.We are in what you might call a consolidation or strategic pause as
:05:01. > :05:01.American called it in 2003. ISIS are trying to consolidate their power in
:05:02. > :05:02.Mosul, and now they have this major trying to consolidate their power in
:05:03. > :05:06.Mosul, and now they have this major city and they are trying to show
:05:07. > :05:11.they can run the city and get the power going, etc. Their southernmost
:05:12. > :05:15.forces, that is a gorilla army, guys in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal
:05:16. > :05:19.with serious opposition. They would like to get the tanks and other
:05:20. > :05:24.things into action but that could take weeks for them to be able to do
:05:25. > :05:27.it. The government side is that they have counter-attacked, but it will
:05:28. > :05:33.take a little while before these newly raised militia and other task
:05:34. > :05:39.forces, call them what you will, can effectively counter-attacked. But
:05:40. > :05:43.that is what will happen in the next week or two. We will see
:05:44. > :05:51.increasingly large and serious government counter-attacked trying
:05:52. > :05:56.to retake those places, and I fear a really difficult, bloody Syrian
:05:57. > :06:04.style street by street battle for some of these urban centres. I would
:06:05. > :06:07.like to have a look at this map, because the Kurds, as I mentioned,
:06:08. > :06:10.they are consolidating their position in the autonomous region in
:06:11. > :06:15.the north. The Islamist are taking over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim
:06:16. > :06:22.West. And of course the Shia Muslim are still dominant in control of
:06:23. > :06:25.Baghdad and in parts of the south and east. Back to me looks like the
:06:26. > :06:35.beginnings of the partition of Iraq. -- back to me. Well, it is, but we
:06:36. > :06:41.have to caveat it in a few ways. Firstly, there are millions of
:06:42. > :06:45.people in Iraq, so-called sushi, combined families, who do not fit
:06:46. > :06:50.easily into the pattern. Do we see millions of people becoming refugees
:06:51. > :06:53.under this scheme? There would be a lot of human tragedies if people
:06:54. > :06:59.really did try to enforce this type partition. Secondly, there are Sunni
:07:00. > :07:05.Muslim communities in the south of Baghdad, those places, once again, a
:07:06. > :07:15.lot of misery and fighting will occur if people try to enforce a de
:07:16. > :07:21.facto partition. There are still an awakening of forces. They are on the
:07:22. > :07:27.side of the government. We heard about one group in Samarra of Sunni
:07:28. > :07:31.Muslims fighting on the same side. It's a complex picture. They factor,
:07:32. > :07:36.it does look like a partition, and if it goes further in that direction
:07:37. > :07:41.it will. And partition will always be messy because people end up on
:07:42. > :07:46.the wrong side of the lies. Finally, the big thing on that map,
:07:47. > :07:51.Iran, a huge place, a huge border with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now
:07:52. > :07:58.becomes a key factor. It is becoming a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I
:07:59. > :07:59.was in Baghdad a few months ago, I did actually see Iranians
:08:00. > :08:06.revolutionary guards in uniform. They were protecting a senior
:08:07. > :08:09.Iranians official, so some numbers have been never some time and they
:08:10. > :08:15.are also said to protect the political leaders and -- in his
:08:16. > :08:19.compound. They are there. We think more of them are trying to organise
:08:20. > :08:24.the defence of Baghdad to galvanise the Iraqi army, and they will not
:08:25. > :08:26.allow the Iraqi government to fall. Mark, thank you for marking archive
:08:27. > :08:31.this morning. -- marking our card. Tony Blair took Britain
:08:32. > :08:33.into the Iraq conflict in 2003. He's now, among other things, envoy
:08:34. > :08:36.to the Middle East representing That's the UN, the EU,
:08:37. > :08:39.the US and Russia. This morning he entered
:08:40. > :08:50.the debate about what should be My point is simple. If you left
:08:51. > :08:54.Saddam in place in 2003, when 2011 happened and you have the Arab
:08:55. > :09:01.revolutions going through Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and
:09:02. > :09:04.Syria, you would still have had a major problem in Iraq. You can see
:09:05. > :09:08.what happens when you leave the dictator in place, as has happened
:09:09. > :09:13.with Bashar al-Assad. The problem doesn't go away. What I'm trying to
:09:14. > :09:16.say is, we can rerun the debates about 2003, and there are perfectly
:09:17. > :09:21.legitimate points on either side, but where we are in 2014, we have do
:09:22. > :09:22.understand that this is a regional problem, but a problem that will
:09:23. > :09:26.affect us. And I'm joined by the former Foreign
:09:27. > :09:29.Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown, Here in London are James Rubin,
:09:30. > :09:32.he was chief spokesman for the State Department under
:09:33. > :09:35.Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman, she represents the Kurdistan
:09:36. > :09:51.Regional government in the UK. Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles,
:09:52. > :09:56.we don't intervene in Syria, it's a shambles. What lessons should we
:09:57. > :09:59.draw? That is a well framed question, because that is the
:10:00. > :10:02.problem. Tony Blair is half right. Iraq, like Syria, would probably
:10:03. > :10:07.have been a problem even without an intervention. But one wishes someone
:10:08. > :10:13.would tell him to stay quiet during moments like this, because it does
:10:14. > :10:17.drive a great surge of people in the other direction. The fact is, what
:10:18. > :10:20.has been missing in western politics towards the Middle East throughout
:10:21. > :10:26.both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a drive to build an inclusive,
:10:27. > :10:32.democratic centre which is secular and nonsectarian. That has been
:10:33. > :10:38.missing amongst the threats of invasion Manon invasion, we have
:10:39. > :10:41.just constantly neglected the diplomatic nation-building
:10:42. > :10:45.dimensional this. I want to come onto what is happening on the
:10:46. > :10:48.ground. I want to begin with what the Western response by me, and by
:10:49. > :10:53.that we mean the United States, because of it doesn't do anything,
:10:54. > :10:57.nobody will do anything. All of the signals I see coming out of the
:10:58. > :11:00.White is that Barack Obama has no appetite for intervention -- out of
:11:01. > :11:03.the White House. I don't think he does have an appetite. He would be
:11:04. > :11:10.very unlikely to do anything very large. He might feel pressured to
:11:11. > :11:15.act because of the fact that this particular group, this Al-Qaeda
:11:16. > :11:22.inspired group, fits into the strategy he has pursued in Yemen and
:11:23. > :11:25.Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use drone strikes against individual
:11:26. > :11:35.terrorists. So it is possible that the threat of ISIS in the region and
:11:36. > :11:41.the West in general might inspire him to act, but the idea he will do
:11:42. > :11:45.enough, militarily, to transform Iraq from its current state of civil
:11:46. > :11:51.War into something along the lines that Mark was talking about,
:11:52. > :11:57.nation-building diplomacy, a big operation, I don't see President
:11:58. > :12:00.Obama sees his historic mission as having got the United States as out
:12:01. > :12:08.of it. Leave it to the Pacific, perhaps. What would the Kurds like
:12:09. > :12:10.the West to do? First of all, in Kurdistan we face a huge
:12:11. > :12:15.humanitarian crisis. We already have had bought a quarter of a million
:12:16. > :12:18.Syrian refugees and we were struggling to cope with that. And
:12:19. > :12:24.now we have at least double that number of refugees coming from
:12:25. > :12:29.Mosul. First and foremost, we are calling on the international
:12:30. > :12:32.community to help us with that. So we need humanitarian aid? Let's
:12:33. > :12:37.assume we do that in some way, maybe not enough, but what else if
:12:38. > :12:43.anything? I think it is an incumbent on the west and other powers to
:12:44. > :12:50.assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I think the Sunni Arab community, some
:12:51. > :12:53.of whom have joined ISIS and may be supported the uprising, have
:12:54. > :13:00.justified complaints against the federal government. But we need the
:13:01. > :13:04.terrorists out of Iraq. That is first and foremost. And what the
:13:05. > :13:07.West can do is not necessarily intervene with boots on the ground,
:13:08. > :13:10.but provide technical assistance, provide intelligence and help the
:13:11. > :13:17.Iraqi army and air force to be more targeted. Can you defend yourselves?
:13:18. > :13:24.In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the disciplined troops. In this
:13:25. > :13:28.situation, I hope they won't be abandoning their post, that is for
:13:29. > :13:34.sure. It is a national cause fires. But we are not armed in the way that
:13:35. > :13:37.the Iraqi army is -- cause for us. We are not armed in the way that
:13:38. > :13:42.ISIS seems to be now they have seized some of the American kit. We
:13:43. > :13:46.are not asking for weapons, but we ask for assistance for all of Iraq
:13:47. > :13:52.to deal with the situation. Mark, this is not just an Iraqi problem.
:13:53. > :13:54.This is a regional conflict, and from the Levant on the shores of the
:13:55. > :13:59.Mediterranean, all the way through to the Gulf, the region is gripped
:14:00. > :14:05.with what is essentially a Sunni and Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with
:14:06. > :14:09.the caveats that Mark bourbon made earlier, it's not quite that
:14:10. > :14:14.straightforward, but the basic divide is exactly that -- Mark
:14:15. > :14:18.Urban. People have been looking for this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan
:14:19. > :14:21.and have been taken by surprise although with hindsight I'm not sure
:14:22. > :14:27.why, that it has begun in Iraq instead. At its most extreme, it
:14:28. > :14:31.risks redrawing the 20th century boundaries of the region in a way
:14:32. > :14:36.which would be highly unstable because it would pit a Shia Muslim
:14:37. > :14:41.bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc and would undo all of the sort of
:14:42. > :14:46.social and economic advance of the last century, so the stakes are
:14:47. > :14:52.suddenly very, very high indeed. Are we seeing the redrawing? The lines
:14:53. > :14:56.were drawn secretly, not far from here, about a mile away, and may
:14:57. > :15:01.have survived through thick and thin. They now look pretty fragile.
:15:02. > :15:09.The map is being redrawn. I think it is true that there is a key factor
:15:10. > :15:15.partition going on -- des facto. Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit
:15:16. > :15:19.of a hand to the promotion of the idea of self-determination, and in a
:15:20. > :15:23.way, there is a self determination going on, particularly in the
:15:24. > :15:26.Kurdish region, and perhaps they may end up the big winners in all of
:15:27. > :15:31.this, because they have proceeded with a relatively moderate,
:15:32. > :15:40.reconcilable government. The key thing that the Kurdish region has
:15:41. > :15:45.done. They used to fight the two groups, and now they fight together.
:15:46. > :15:50.What the Sunni Muslims have not done is figure out how to let politics
:15:51. > :16:00.let the side things instead of guns. We need to look clearly and in Syria
:16:01. > :16:07.and Iraq, if there is a Sunni extremist with ISIS that carves out
:16:08. > :16:11.a place for itself, it will be the great irony of the modern era.
:16:12. > :16:18.President Bush said he wanted to go into Iraq to fight terrorism. There
:16:19. > :16:23.was no terrorist. There are now. If in Iraq and Syria together thereat a
:16:24. > :16:29.thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability that threatens the region, the
:16:30. > :16:48.West, the world, we are all going to have to do something about it.
:16:49. > :16:59.The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.
:17:00. > :17:04.You would not want it on your southern border. Absolutely, we
:17:05. > :17:07.would not. The point we are all making indirectly is that things
:17:08. > :17:12.have changed in Iraq and will never be the same again. Whether Iraq
:17:13. > :17:14.completely disintegrates into three countries, or whether it stays
:17:15. > :17:16.together as one country, but a countries, or whether it stays
:17:17. > :17:22.together as one country, but loose federation, either way, Iraq has
:17:23. > :17:27.changed. It will not go back to what it was. I hope it will change for
:17:28. > :17:35.the better. I think we're at the make or break point for Iraq. Either
:17:36. > :17:39.the political readers -- the political leaders of a right wake up
:17:40. > :17:43.and smell the coffee and put aside their differences or there will be
:17:44. > :17:50.problems. This provides that opportunity, in a very nasty way. If
:17:51. > :17:56.we take it? Yes, and if not, I think this is the end of a rack as we know
:17:57. > :18:04.it. If anything resembling a caliphate emerges, that is very
:18:05. > :18:07.destabilising for the region itself. More so I would suggest than even
:18:08. > :18:12.the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. At some stage, you have
:18:13. > :18:26.to assume that they will be coming for us. That is correct. This is
:18:27. > :18:30.extremely dangerous. The only way forward is for these political
:18:31. > :18:34.groups to talk to each other and find a compromise that allows the
:18:35. > :18:37.rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected within or the
:18:38. > :18:42.rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected with an
:18:43. > :18:45.autonomous federal-state. Any support for the government must be
:18:46. > :18:58.premised on that. There is no military solution for this which is
:18:59. > :19:05.in during -- there is no military solution for this. There must be
:19:06. > :19:09.serious political negotiation, not with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim
:19:10. > :19:14.moderates, to form a more representative government. This is
:19:15. > :19:19.the last chance for Iraq. I think we are all saying that that is going to
:19:20. > :19:22.need to be some major western leadership to make some big
:19:23. > :19:27.decisions here for the future of the region. I am concerned that after
:19:28. > :19:32.Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is quite world-weary, quite
:19:33. > :19:38.world-weary. It does not seem to be giving leadership. Certainly we are
:19:39. > :19:41.not seeing that in Europe. I am deeply concerned that we are not
:19:42. > :19:47.going to take the leadership role that needs to be taken. These are
:19:48. > :19:52.big issues. When Britain and France carved up the Middle East, they were
:19:53. > :19:56.world powers, operating as global powers, and without that global
:19:57. > :20:00.leadership by somebody, this is just going to get worse and worse. I
:20:01. > :20:05.think we will leave it there, thank you very much.
:20:06. > :20:10.The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.
:20:11. > :20:13.It is just under 100 days until the referendum on Scottish independence.
:20:14. > :20:15.So, for once, it'll be a long hot-summer
:20:16. > :20:20.But the campaign isn't just getting heated.
:20:21. > :20:22.In places it's also down-right nasty. When
:20:23. > :20:24.Scotland's best-selling author announced she was giving
:20:25. > :20:26.the unionist cause a million pounds this week, she received
:20:27. > :20:34.Independence supporters online, so-called cybernats,
:20:35. > :20:37.called JK Rowling a traitor and much worse, using a variety of
:20:38. > :20:41.For its part, the Better Together campaign has been accused
:20:42. > :20:44.Even Gordon Brown seems to think so, and this week he criticised
:20:45. > :20:46.Conservative ministers for relying on "threats
:20:47. > :20:51.With the Edinburgh Festival approaching, reports suggest even
:20:52. > :20:53.comedians are now reluctant to engage in the subject because
:20:54. > :21:00.I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie
:21:01. > :21:15.They're both in our Glasgow studio, and they're going head to head.
:21:16. > :21:22.Blair Jenkins, let me come to you first. Why have you and the Better
:21:23. > :21:25.Together campaign and Alex Salmond not done more to slap down the cyber
:21:26. > :21:30.nationalists who are poisoning the debate? Good morning. I think both
:21:31. > :21:35.sides tried to stop the tiny number of people on both sides who are
:21:36. > :21:40.incapable of controlling themselves. We should not get this
:21:41. > :21:44.out of proportion. We are having a fantastic, decent and democratic
:21:45. > :21:49.debate. The people who probably total no more than 100 on both sides
:21:50. > :21:53.who post offensive material or not to be allowed to deflect from that
:21:54. > :21:57.fact. Of course there are nasty people on the Better Together side
:21:58. > :22:01.as well, but are you saying there are as many of those as the cyber
:22:02. > :22:07.nationalists? I have not done the Kent. Lots of people are certainly
:22:08. > :22:12.posting nasty in defensive things to people in the yes campaigners well.
:22:13. > :22:18.I imagine that people do what I do, and block them. You stop them from
:22:19. > :22:24.sending anything further. There is a democratic and in gauging progress
:22:25. > :22:28.going on throughout Scotland. It is characterised by good humour and
:22:29. > :22:34.good debate. We should not get out of proportion and the activities of
:22:35. > :22:37.the number of people. I want to get to Jackie Baillie. The debate is
:22:38. > :22:41.actually pretty good-humoured and you should be doing more about the
:22:42. > :22:47.nasties on your side as well? I think we have reached a new low this
:22:48. > :22:49.week. Despite many people engaging in the politics of the decision and
:22:50. > :22:56.the debate about that, whether we want to retain the best of both
:22:57. > :23:00.worlds are separate from the United Kingdom, what we have seen is the
:23:01. > :23:08.most abusive and vitriolic attack, particularly on women, JK Rowling
:23:09. > :23:12.and a Labour supporter who dared to support the no campaign. When you
:23:13. > :23:17.look at the number of people on social media, there are more from
:23:18. > :23:23.the yes campaign than the no site. We should all be condemning attacks,
:23:24. > :23:30.from whatever quarter they come. This seemed to be connected to the
:23:31. > :23:34.office of the First Minister. What is the evidence for that? There was
:23:35. > :23:39.an e-mail from one of the... I understand about that, but it did
:23:40. > :23:48.not use vile words. It did not, but it repeated the same mistake as on
:23:49. > :23:53.the website. We should be clear that we need to condemn these attacks,
:23:54. > :23:58.but it is not just the water works, it is taking action. There was an
:23:59. > :24:03.IpsosMORI poll this week which was varying testing. It showed the
:24:04. > :24:06.population as a whole, farmer people think that Yes Scotland is running
:24:07. > :24:14.an effective campaign as against Better Together. It is a undecided
:24:15. > :24:21.voters think this by a majority of four 21. Some people are worried
:24:22. > :24:27.about of the campaign. JK Rowling, Scotland's most successful author of
:24:28. > :24:30.all time. She gives ?1 million to the Better Together campaign. She
:24:31. > :24:38.then faces some of the most incredible abuse. I know what it is
:24:39. > :24:44.like because I have had some myself. Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some
:24:45. > :24:47.of the words, it is Sunday morning. Why does Scottish Nationalists
:24:48. > :24:53.culture have such a revolting fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to
:24:54. > :24:56.our views and it is unacceptable if people say offensive things about
:24:57. > :25:01.her or anyone else who voices and opinion in this debate. Who are
:25:02. > :25:05.obese people? When you look at the accounts of some of the people who
:25:06. > :25:10.were posting these things about JK Rowling, they were using the same
:25:11. > :25:17.sort of language about film stars and football stars. This was just
:25:18. > :25:22.part of their language on Twitter. How often has Alex Salmond condemned
:25:23. > :25:28.the cyber nationalists? Very often. Everyone in the campaign hands. By
:25:29. > :25:30.common consent, Yes Scotland is running a thoroughly positive
:25:31. > :25:36.campaign, much more positive than Better Together. Jackie Baillie, it
:25:37. > :25:42.hardly helps matters when Alistair Darling, who runs your campaign,
:25:43. > :25:47.compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il and North Korea. That hardly
:25:48. > :25:51.elevates the debate? I think we need to elevate the debate. There are
:25:52. > :26:00.less than a hundred days to go. It is a massive decision. We need to
:26:01. > :26:04.elevate the debate beyond attacks. I think there is much more that Yes
:26:05. > :26:13.Scotland and the SNP can do. You have made that point. Why are you
:26:14. > :26:18.running a campaign based on fear? The codename of your campaign is
:26:19. > :26:23.even project fear. It is threats. You cannot have the pound, there
:26:24. > :26:28.will be no shipbuilding. You will be flooded by immigrants. Why are you
:26:29. > :26:33.so negative? I am not negative at all and neither is the campaign. The
:26:34. > :26:36.campaign has asked questions and I think it is legitimate to ask
:26:37. > :26:41.questions of the people proposing such a fundamental change. People
:26:42. > :26:46.care about the economy, their jobs, their families. What would happen to
:26:47. > :26:51.them if they leave the rest of the United Kingdom. I think it is
:26:52. > :26:56.legitimate to ask questions. I refuse to be asked of
:26:57. > :27:02.scaremongering. People deserve answers. The yes campaign is equally
:27:03. > :27:10.guilty of some of the most outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you
:27:11. > :27:15.are both scaremongering. Blair Jenkins, the First Minister said of
:27:16. > :27:21.the cyber nationalists, that they are just Daft folk, as if they were
:27:22. > :27:25.mischievous little children. It is worse than that. When you look at
:27:26. > :27:32.what they say, they are twisted, perhaps even evil minds. I would not
:27:33. > :27:36.disagree with his comments, but they are directed at just a small number
:27:37. > :27:40.of people. The story of this campaign is not the story of what
:27:41. > :27:45.people are saying on Twitter. Around Scotland, lots of people are getting
:27:46. > :27:52.engaged in debate to have been tuned out of the political process. Today,
:27:53. > :27:57.we have 47% support for the yes campaign. The movement in the
:27:58. > :28:03.campaign is towards yes. People know we have a better campaign, a vision
:28:04. > :28:07.for Scotland. The latest poll of polls does not show that. Both
:28:08. > :28:12.sides, you always take the opinion polls that show you in the best
:28:13. > :28:16.light. All politicians do that. Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not
:28:17. > :28:25.just negative, it is patronising. You make dubious claims that Scots
:28:26. > :28:32.would be ?1400 better off by staying in the union, and then you say that
:28:33. > :28:34.the kids use the money to scoff 280 hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival.
:28:35. > :28:41.The fate of the nation is in your hands and that is the best you can
:28:42. > :28:47.do? I think you will find that the campaign is something that we are
:28:48. > :28:53.taking the message to people. Then why are you talking about hotdogs? I
:28:54. > :28:57.do not. The campaign did. We are taking a positive message to people
:28:58. > :29:02.across Scotland about the benefits of the United Kingdom. We believe we
:29:03. > :29:05.are stronger and more secure and more stable, being part of that
:29:06. > :29:11.family of nations that is the United Kingdom. At the same time, we have
:29:12. > :29:18.the strange and power over things like education and transport. I
:29:19. > :29:21.understand that. I am not doing the issues today, I am talking about the
:29:22. > :29:26.tone of the campaign. I have one very important question. Who would
:29:27. > :29:33.you supporting last night in the England-Italy match? I was not
:29:34. > :29:38.watching the game. I would be delighted to see England do well in
:29:39. > :29:42.this tournament. I have Argentina in the office sweepstake. I have to
:29:43. > :29:46.keep some attention on them, but I would be delighted to seeing Clint
:29:47. > :29:54.do well. That is because you think it will help your campaign. It will
:29:55. > :29:55.annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie? I was supporting England. I was also
:29:56. > :30:01.supporting Portugal. Now most of you probably missed last
:30:02. > :30:04.night's football match between England and Italy because
:30:05. > :30:07.you wanted to get an early night and England lost
:30:08. > :30:11.despite a plucky effort, I'm told. But even Westminster is
:30:12. > :30:14.in the grip of World Cup fever and with speculation
:30:15. > :30:16.about the fitness of each political party's team we sent Adam out to
:30:17. > :30:23.tackle some of the big players. Well, this is
:30:24. > :30:36.the closest I'll get to Rio. This year everybody seems to have
:30:37. > :30:41.gone a bit mad Belize, football stickers. Let's see who I will get.
:30:42. > :30:47.Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for these. George Osborne? That is
:30:48. > :30:50.because we leapt on the bandwagon and made Alan political stickers.
:30:51. > :30:52.They're hotter than a Brazilian barbecue.
:30:53. > :30:54.And at Westminster they're turning into collector?s items.
:30:55. > :31:04.Sunday politics political stickers. We have one of you, Norman. Would
:31:05. > :31:06.you like it? Do you want to start collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:07. > :31:06.packet? collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:07. > :31:14.Thank you. No album, I'm afraid. collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:15. > :31:20.Thank you. No album, I've got Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and
:31:21. > :31:26.two of the Prime Minister. -- next to Theresa. I am sure Michael has
:31:27. > :31:28.Theresa in her stick around, and vice versa.
:31:29. > :31:30.These Tory ones are proving very popular
:31:31. > :31:33.since she fell out with him out how to handle extremism in schools.
:31:34. > :31:36.And there's been open speculation about him taking on him in
:31:37. > :31:44.Then there are rumours of a reshuffle of the whole Tory album.
:31:45. > :31:54.Do you think there will be any swapping in the Tory leadership
:31:55. > :31:58.soon? Who knows? David Cameron has also got to replace the EU
:31:59. > :31:59.commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is standing down.
:32:00. > :32:01.Does he go with the favourite the former health secretary
:32:02. > :32:04.Or the grassroots choice, Martin Callanan, the Tories old
:32:05. > :32:08.Or does he rehabilitate Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate?
:32:09. > :32:23.Do you fancy being European Commissioner? I would rather be
:32:24. > :32:25.spending the money on the world's poor and spending it well. Glad to
:32:26. > :32:28.hear it. Happy collecting. Right, there must be some Labour
:32:29. > :32:35.stickers out there. You don't want to swap Ed Balls any
:32:36. > :32:38.of the others? Can't I keep them all? This is almost the perfect
:32:39. > :32:39.team. There have been grumblings
:32:40. > :32:42.about the fitness of the Shadow And Ed Miliband's got a kicking
:32:43. > :32:46.in Liverpool after posing I'm told grown men are meeting up
:32:47. > :32:57.in pubs for sticker swaps - With Danny Finkelstein -
:32:58. > :33:11.Tory peer and Times columnist, He would be the card I would not
:33:12. > :33:16.want to trade. Do people want to trade him in? I don't think anybody
:33:17. > :33:19.wants to trade him in at the moment. He is the best person to lead the
:33:20. > :33:23.Labour party and will lead us into the next election. There's been a
:33:24. > :33:26.lot about Michael Gove, and he's very combative. That's been a huge
:33:27. > :33:29.strength as an education Secretary, despite the fact it's brought in
:33:30. > :33:33.trouble. I would think the prime minister would tell him not to get
:33:34. > :33:38.himself into peripheral battles at the moment but stick to what has
:33:39. > :33:45.been successful. I haven't got Nick Clegg, but I got me. Controversy
:33:46. > :33:48.amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I need to give away me in return for
:33:49. > :33:52.Nick Clegg. That would be far better. There you are.
:33:53. > :33:55.Some local parties are holding meetings about his leadership,
:33:56. > :33:59.but at one in Cambridge this week they voted to stick with him.
:34:00. > :34:09.You have got a Euro Commissioner. Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed
:34:10. > :34:14.Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do that? What is the significance of
:34:15. > :34:17.that? Very significant. Happy collecting.
:34:18. > :34:20.These beauties are popping up everywhere, but sadly they won't
:34:21. > :34:30.Adam is still doing the samba around Westminster as I speak.
:34:31. > :34:32.I'm joined by three journalists who've been
:34:33. > :34:34.furiously swapping stickers throughout the show, they certainly
:34:35. > :34:37.weren't allowed to stay up to watch the football, it's Nick Watt,
:34:38. > :34:45.We will talk about Labour after the break, and I want to concentrate on
:34:46. > :34:50.the Tories, but the moment, Nick, senior Tories are saying privately
:34:51. > :34:58.that they might win next May. They are beginning to dream the dream. So
:34:59. > :35:05.why are they doing all this jockeying? I think the jockeying for
:35:06. > :35:11.the leadership is about a year old. What stoped it up was when Theresa
:35:12. > :35:14.gave a speech to the conference, and people said she was doing it just in
:35:15. > :35:19.case, when things were not looking too good. She is not on manoeuvres.
:35:20. > :35:23.I think it was a policy row that drove the differences with Michael
:35:24. > :35:26.Gove. But Michael Gove is on manoeuvres, and he is trying to
:35:27. > :35:34.protect George Osborne from, he believes, a serious threat from
:35:35. > :35:37.Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa. It is quite self-indulgent when you
:35:38. > :35:39.are a couple of points behind, the economy is going your way, to be
:35:40. > :35:51.involved in this sort of stuff. Extraordinary. It shows the toxic
:35:52. > :35:55.disease that gnaws at the entrails of the Tory party, and Cameron is
:35:56. > :36:00.their great asset. He is more popular than the party, he bridges
:36:01. > :36:02.the gap is, and he has an extraordinary dissemble and some
:36:03. > :36:07.pretending to be this moderate while never the lens -- nevertheless
:36:08. > :36:10.leading the most far right wing government we have had since the
:36:11. > :36:14.war, and that has been a brilliant piece of political Charente and they
:36:15. > :36:17.would be crazy to get rid of it -- political Charente.
:36:18. > :36:21.piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --
:36:22. > :36:24.charades. Does this rumble on? I have an unfashionable view as there
:36:25. > :36:29.aren't half as many leadership plots taking place in Westminster as we
:36:30. > :36:33.assume, and the willingness to read strategic calculation into anything
:36:34. > :36:38.that takes place comes from people watching I Claudius or house of
:36:39. > :36:43.cards. That hasn't been off -- on for years. I needed a reference from
:36:44. > :36:49.your time. I needed something. Maybe brief encounter? It's a stylised
:36:50. > :36:54.view of how politics works, and so much more in life is about
:36:55. > :36:59.randomness and mistakes. Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove
:37:00. > :37:05.as George Osborne's man on earth, they are positioning themselves. --
:37:06. > :37:11.Janan wrote an eloquent comment this week about this, but there are
:37:12. > :37:14.certain realities that. Michael Gove had that famous dinner with Rupert
:37:15. > :37:17.Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he said that you must not make Boris
:37:18. > :37:22.Johnson leader of the Conservative party, George Osborne is my man.
:37:23. > :37:26.Theresa May set out her credo two years ago and people on her team
:37:27. > :37:29.were saying that she was doing it just in case. People are out there
:37:30. > :37:35.and are thinking of the future, but I do think Janan is right. In the
:37:36. > :37:41.village, in the thick of it mindset, you can get a bit carried away and
:37:42. > :37:49.you can be a bit in the famous. That is before your era. He died. What
:37:50. > :37:52.did he mean by it. You can get a bit carried away by it. I will have
:37:53. > :37:55.words with you during the break. It's just gone 11.35, you're
:37:56. > :37:57.watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:37:58. > :38:00.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll
:38:01. > :38:27.be talking about Ed Miliband's politics Wales, we round of the
:38:28. > :38:33.BBC's measuring revolution week. Wales is hosting a major conference
:38:34. > :38:39.on bovine tuberculosis but is the vaccination programme working?
:38:40. > :38:47.And as we measured revolution, we get Welsh opinions and hear Scottish
:38:48. > :38:50.voices on independence for Scotland. First, the Shadow Welsh Secretary is
:38:51. > :38:55.urging council leaders to take the lead in reforming element. Labour's
:38:56. > :39:02.Owen Smith says they should be trusted to get on with the job of
:39:03. > :39:12.restructuring. He has been speaking ahead of Welsh local government's
:39:13. > :39:17.conference in Llandudno this week. What is the vision for Welsh local
:39:18. > :39:21.government? For ministers in Cardiff Bay it involves fewer councils. The
:39:22. > :39:26.status quo, they say, is not an option.
:39:27. > :39:30.At one end of the argument is Cardiff Council and at the other end
:39:31. > :39:37.is the Vale of Glamorgan. Under proposals put forward by a
:39:38. > :39:39.government commission, these two councils would emerge.
:39:40. > :39:49.Another suggestion is for Kerrigan -- Ceredigion to join up with
:39:50. > :39:56.Pembrokeshire. Ceredigion's leader says there have
:39:57. > :40:01.been no discussions of murdering and there is no money to pay for it.
:40:02. > :40:03.We need to keep our focus firmly on the ball of service delivery, that
:40:04. > :40:08.is what people on the ground want. Local people need local services.
:40:09. > :40:14.Pulling the focus is away from those services will not do anyone any good
:40:15. > :40:18.in this difficult time. Now, it is back in January that the
:40:19. > :40:23.Williams commission recommended some councils should merge as part of a
:40:24. > :40:29.plan to improve public services. It has put forward a new council map
:40:30. > :40:34.with 12 councils. The government says it will give a
:40:35. > :40:37.formal response to the Williams commission report and put its
:40:38. > :40:44.council map before the summer recess. It wanted cross-party
:40:45. > :40:48.agreement. That has not happened and some leaders could take some
:40:49. > :40:53.persuading. Shadow Secretary Owen Smith says councils need to be
:40:54. > :40:55.trusted to drive the process forward.
:40:56. > :40:58.Ultimately this has to be something that is collaborative. It has to be
:40:59. > :41:03.something that is not imposed from above, it has to be driven by local
:41:04. > :41:08.government itself because that is the way in which we will end up with
:41:09. > :41:11.the best fit between local services and local people. I am saying to
:41:12. > :41:14.local government leaders, it has to be driven by local government itself
:41:15. > :41:16.because that is the way in which we will end up with the best fit
:41:17. > :41:18.between local services and local people. I am saying to local
:41:19. > :41:27.government leaders committed up to you. -- it is up to you. I think we
:41:28. > :41:34.should trust them to take it up and rise to the challenge. They need to
:41:35. > :41:39.get on with it. First Minister Carwyn Jones said
:41:40. > :41:43.this week that some councils are the -- incapable of improving education
:41:44. > :41:46.in their every and that shows the need to restructure.
:41:47. > :41:48.The Conservatives say the Welsh government are too focused on line
:41:49. > :41:51.drawn up. What I do not hear from the Wales
:41:52. > :41:58.Labour Party and the Welsh Labour government any idea about what they
:41:59. > :42:00.want to ask local authorities to deliver and what they are prepared
:42:01. > :42:05.to fund local authorities to deliver in the future. All they seem to be
:42:06. > :42:09.fixated on our geographical changes they seem to think will be a
:42:10. > :42:13.panacea. We know they are not, just a change geographically, because we
:42:14. > :42:17.have been there before with the large County Council is that used to
:42:18. > :42:21.exist. I think the First Minister has to show leadership on this issue
:42:22. > :42:25.rather than dithering as he is at the moment, because his local
:42:26. > :42:30.authority leaders have sat on him. Deciding how our councils will be
:42:31. > :42:33.organised in future will take careful consideration, says the
:42:34. > :42:39.Welsh government. Restructuring is on the horizon but it could yet be
:42:40. > :42:42.some distance away. You saw the First Minister speaking
:42:43. > :42:48.to our political editor there. That is part of our measuring devolution
:42:49. > :42:52.week, when we have been taking stock of 15 years of the assembly.
:42:53. > :42:57.Let's pick up on some of the points raised with this the Welsh
:42:58. > :43:03.government's Deputy Minister for tackling poverty. The First Minister
:43:04. > :43:08.was then blaming local councils and accusing them of failure to improve
:43:09. > :43:12.education. Given that during those 15 years of devolution labour has
:43:13. > :43:15.been in charge, is he passing the buck?
:43:16. > :43:21.No, but there is a recognition our councils do not serve all of us as
:43:22. > :43:24.well as they should do. No one suggests the current structural
:43:25. > :43:30.public services is what we should have. The challenge is finding a way
:43:31. > :43:35.forward. We are demonstrated better off now than we were 15 years ago in
:43:36. > :43:37.health and the economy. It was common to have two-year waiting
:43:38. > :43:43.lists in the health service and that is not the case now. Our perspective
:43:44. > :43:48.is that we want to see even more change. If these doctors are wrong,
:43:49. > :43:50.you have had 15 years to put them right.
:43:51. > :43:54.It is difficult to escape the conclusion of your opponents that
:43:55. > :43:59.you are looking for someone else to blame for things that you have
:44:00. > :44:03.failed to put right yourself. No, there is a recognition that
:44:04. > :44:06.where we are is not where we should be in terms of the structures of
:44:07. > :44:09.public services. That is not uncommon, because you will not find
:44:10. > :44:14.a serious voice in other parties that disagrees with that. It is
:44:15. > :44:16.important to recognise that discussions between the Welsh
:44:17. > :44:20.government continue with other parties and other stakeholders,
:44:21. > :44:25.people who lead and manage public services, people who represent those
:44:26. > :44:27.in public services as part of an ongoing conversation about where we
:44:28. > :44:33.go. As the First Minister said, there will be an announcement on a
:44:34. > :44:38.proposed route forward before the recess. This is a difficult and
:44:39. > :44:42.challenging agenda... The First Minister says there are
:44:43. > :44:46.six local education authorities in special measures, three of those are
:44:47. > :44:51.in councils led by the Labour Party. As I say, 15 years - why only now
:44:52. > :44:54.are we having this conversation about structures?
:44:55. > :44:59.This conversation has been around for some time.
:45:00. > :45:02.But you have been reluctant to grasp the nettle?
:45:03. > :45:07.No, it is important to recognise there is not an easy fix. It has
:45:08. > :45:10.been an issue for some time about what is the optimum organisation,
:45:11. > :45:15.and any organisation takes up an opportunity that is there as well. I
:45:16. > :45:20.think this is the right thing to do, the Welsh government has set out
:45:21. > :45:25.a clear agenda for reforming and improving public services. It is
:45:26. > :45:28.about response from all parts of public services. Not just about
:45:29. > :45:32.local government. Crucially, it is about local
:45:33. > :45:35.government leaders, Labour local council leaders signing up to your
:45:36. > :45:41.policy. As the First Minister got a fight on his hands convincing them?
:45:42. > :45:46.-- as the First Minister? We are engaging with leaders across
:45:47. > :45:52.local services. Any proposals for a future map will be dealt with when
:45:53. > :45:56.that statement is made before the end of summer recess, and it is
:45:57. > :46:02.important to see it continue to be engaged with, to improve and reform
:46:03. > :46:05.Welsh public services. Let's look at the health service as
:46:06. > :46:12.part of our series. We have surveyed people and that revealed that fewer
:46:13. > :46:16.than half of the people in Wales realise the Welsh government runs
:46:17. > :46:21.the NHS. With all of the flag you get from the opposition about the
:46:22. > :46:26.handling of the NHS, you must be cock-a-hoop if so few people realise
:46:27. > :46:30.Labour is in charge. I would not say that. If you look
:46:31. > :46:34.across this week of devolution, think about how narrow the margin
:46:35. > :46:39.was to create the assembly. I think it is a remarkable achievement that
:46:40. > :46:44.devolution is so well embedded, but that is not to save the last
:46:45. > :46:47.significant challenges around public perception and engagement. I would
:46:48. > :46:52.like to see a much greater proportion of Welsh adults 14 at the
:46:53. > :46:56.next assembly election, having their say in who could and should run well
:46:57. > :47:02.services and have a significant say on the economy in Wales. I recognise
:47:03. > :47:05.there are political challenges for us as elected representatives and a
:47:06. > :47:08.broader challenge for the media about how the public engage with
:47:09. > :47:14.reporting on wedge politics and how they access different services. That
:47:15. > :47:19.has changed hugely in the last 15 years. -- reporting on Welsh
:47:20. > :47:22.politics. The different from that people get information now, the rise
:47:23. > :47:27.of social media, we are significantly further away from
:47:28. > :47:32.where we were 15 years ago. When you say you are under pressure
:47:33. > :47:41.because of poor standard of K at one Health Board, the complaints of an
:47:42. > :47:44.cloud, people don't like hospital reorganisation, how does labour
:47:45. > :48:00.respond to that? -- the complaints of Clwyd.
:48:01. > :48:05.We want to focus on how rapidly the improvement is and how even and
:48:06. > :48:09.consistent the quality is. About the NHS, it is important to recognise
:48:10. > :48:13.that are things we wanted to see improved, areas of the NHS where we
:48:14. > :48:18.recognise things go wrong. But the overwhelming majority of the time,
:48:19. > :48:22.people have a good service. The Welsh national survey, a significant
:48:23. > :48:28.survey of the public, recognised that the greatest majority of people
:48:29. > :48:33.are satisfied with NHS Wales. Do you think part of the problem is
:48:34. > :48:37.that people are not interested, paying attention to devolved
:48:38. > :48:42.politics, because effectively Wales is a 1-party state and local --
:48:43. > :48:47.Labour keep getting re-elected? Wales is not a 1-party state, we
:48:48. > :48:50.have never had a clear majority in the assembly. It is rather odd to
:48:51. > :48:54.say that because the facts point in a different direction. Labour is
:48:55. > :48:59.currently the biggest party in Wales and I don't want a change in that
:49:00. > :49:04.direction, but this is about public didn't public services and what we
:49:05. > :49:06.do. There are big challenges for all of us engaging interest in how the
:49:07. > :49:10.country is run. We have conducted another poll that
:49:11. > :49:15.shows you will not win a majority in 2016 but you will still be the
:49:16. > :49:20.biggest party, another Labour led government until 2021. Is that
:49:21. > :49:23.really good for democracy? It is good that people make a choice
:49:24. > :49:27.and I want people to vote Labour, obviously. Any poll conducted now
:49:28. > :49:32.for an election in nearly two years time has to be treated with real
:49:33. > :49:35.caution. I want to see more people engaged with politics and what the
:49:36. > :49:38.assembly does for the people of Wales.
:49:39. > :49:42.We're out of time, thank you for joining us.
:49:43. > :49:46.We have had 15 years of devolution and so has Scotland, but the Scots
:49:47. > :49:50.have been on a different journey to us here in Wales.
:49:51. > :49:54.On the 18th of September, Scottish voters will be asked the question,
:49:55. > :50:01.should Scotland be an independent country? Yes or no. As part of our
:50:02. > :50:05.measuring devolution week we have canvassed Welsh voters aren't what
:50:06. > :50:09.they think the impact of a yes vote could be. We asked, if Scotland
:50:10. > :50:12.decides to become independent and leave the UK, which one of the
:50:13. > :50:16.following statements do you most agree with?
:50:17. > :50:20.61% said Scottish independence should not make any difference to
:50:21. > :50:25.how we govern ourselves in Wales. 17% said Scottish independence
:50:26. > :50:30.should lead to more powers for the Welsh assembly. 14% said Scottish
:50:31. > :50:33.independence should lead to the Welsh people voting for
:50:34. > :50:37.independence. I think a lot of people find it
:50:38. > :50:42.difficult to make the leap of the imagination to understand what I yes
:50:43. > :50:46.vote in Scotland would mean and what its potential implications for Wales
:50:47. > :50:49.might be. At the moment the referendum still more than three
:50:50. > :50:55.months away, it is still looking like a no vote is the more likely
:50:56. > :51:00.outcome. If it did happen, it might well start to change the way people
:51:01. > :51:05.in Wales think about things. Perhaps the poll also suggests that for many
:51:06. > :51:10.people in Wales what is important is not so much of the UK as a whole but
:51:11. > :51:14.the union between England and Wales, that is what matters to them in
:51:15. > :51:20.terms of how Wales is governed. But what is the view from Scotland?
:51:21. > :51:22.I have been speaking to two members of the Scottish Parliament,
:51:23. > :51:29.conservative Liz Smith, who wants Scotland to stay in the union, and
:51:30. > :51:30.the greens' Patrick Harvie, who is campaigning for an independent
:51:31. > :51:34.Scotland. If you want the kind of
:51:35. > :51:38.transformation I think is necessary for society, and Liz will disagree
:51:39. > :51:41.with that on a point of principle at a conservative, but if you want the
:51:42. > :51:46.kind of transformation Queen's and many others in the radical part of
:51:47. > :51:50.politics think is necessary, I do not see that happening from the
:51:51. > :51:55.Westminster culture. I don't see the opportunity to create a space for
:51:56. > :52:00.change with a vote for the no camp. I guess vote could not only change
:52:01. > :52:05.that in Scotland it could stimulate a change in the UK. Asking the
:52:06. > :52:08.question, what is Westminster doing? What is it even for?
:52:09. > :52:12.Some people say they are worried I yes vote may be a gamble, but there
:52:13. > :52:17.are a lot of uncertainties with a no vote, as well, because it is by no
:52:18. > :52:21.means clear what will happen to ten one if people reject independence.
:52:22. > :52:25.There are far fewer uncertainties with the no vote than there would be
:52:26. > :52:29.with a yes vote. The future is never absolutely clear, but that is not
:52:30. > :52:33.the point. The point is whether there is greater security as part of
:52:34. > :52:38.the UK is or as an independent country. That is the decision people
:52:39. > :52:41.in Scotland has to make. We are absolutely clear, and I think the
:52:42. > :52:46.vast majority of people in Scotland are clear, if you believe the
:52:47. > :52:51.opinion polls, that we are better as the UK. We made that decision not
:52:52. > :52:54.just because of what is better for Scotland but because of what is
:52:55. > :52:57.better for the rest of the UK, including Wells country.
:52:58. > :53:03.One of the certainties of the no vote seems to be that the Barnett
:53:04. > :53:06.formula will stay. There are plenty of people in Wales that think they
:53:07. > :53:11.are underfunded by the Barnett formula.
:53:12. > :53:17.Well, the Barnett formula is crucial to protecting those areas of the UK
:53:18. > :53:20.that have not had the same development of economic growth.
:53:21. > :53:24.There will always be a need for some form of Barnett formula to help
:53:25. > :53:29.those areas that cannot survive in the way that richer parts of the UK
:53:30. > :53:33.can do. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
:53:34. > :53:38.I don't know what your feelings on that are, Patrick Harvey.
:53:39. > :53:40.Is reform of the Barnett formula likely to happen if there is a no
:53:41. > :53:44.vote? I can barely help laughing when I
:53:45. > :53:49.hear the argument, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Yes it is!
:53:50. > :53:52.I thought you did well out of the Barnett formula in Scotland.
:53:53. > :53:54.I'm not just talking about the Barnett formula but the
:53:55. > :54:02.constitutional settlement we have at the moment. The UK is failing to
:54:03. > :54:05.achieve a more equal, more sustainable society. We need
:54:06. > :54:11.investment, not austerity, if we are going to see the kind of positive
:54:12. > :54:14.future all of our nations and regions need. Liz Smith.
:54:15. > :54:19.The Conservatives have offered full income tax powers to the Scottish
:54:20. > :54:22.Parliament if there is a no vote. You not worried about tax
:54:23. > :54:25.competition between the different parts of the UK, that Scotland could
:54:26. > :54:30.become a tax haven damaging the economy of the rest of Britain?
:54:31. > :54:35.What we have been very worried about is that this Parliament, if it does
:54:36. > :54:38.not have the accountability and responsibility for a sufficient
:54:39. > :54:43.level of raising its own money and spending it, this decision on tax is
:54:44. > :54:47.based on good quality conservative values about ensuring you have
:54:48. > :54:52.responsibility and accountability. When Patrick Harvey, whose
:54:53. > :54:56.opposition I admire in many ways, we are not in any way politically close
:54:57. > :55:00.but I admire the work that he does, but he is completely wrong when he
:55:01. > :55:04.talks about a Scandinavian model because it is a very high tax model.
:55:05. > :55:09.I don't think Scotland is in anyway wanting to have that and I don't the
:55:10. > :55:13.rest of the UK -- the rest of the UK wants a high tax platform because
:55:14. > :55:16.that would be a disaster. It has not proved a disaster in
:55:17. > :55:24.those Scandinavian countries, either for business or the social and
:55:25. > :55:27.environmental issues they share. Most are concerned with skills,
:55:28. > :55:31.infrastructure, the decency of a society that allows them to prosper
:55:32. > :55:36.rather than a wee bit less on the marginal tax rates.
:55:37. > :55:40.But if you are wanting to deliver a whole lot of policies on social
:55:41. > :55:44.equality, you have, by definition, to find far more money than is
:55:45. > :55:47.currently available if you were to pursue a yes vote. That is not going
:55:48. > :55:51.to happen. So we may have to close some of the
:55:52. > :55:55.tax loopholes that you guys allowed to exist at a UK level. Billions of
:55:56. > :55:58.pounds siphoned off to tax havens. You will have to put up tax or cut
:55:59. > :56:02.expenditure. I can see you both have a lot to
:56:03. > :56:08.debate and just a little under 100 days to do it, but we are out of
:56:09. > :56:12.time. Thank you for joining me. In north Pembrokeshire, bait is
:56:13. > :56:16.being laid for badgers, they are being aged and injected with TB
:56:17. > :56:19.vaccine to start than spreading the disease to cattle.
:56:20. > :56:28.Remember, the previous Wells government policy was to cull them
:56:29. > :56:32.but is vaccination working? -- the previous Welsh government
:56:33. > :56:36.policy. This has been described as the
:56:37. > :56:42.Olympics of TB control. In March 2012, you said that, we do
:56:43. > :56:46.not know whether vaccination will provide us with a way to control TB
:56:47. > :56:58.in wildlife, but we will have to try it. Two years later, do you know now
:56:59. > :57:01.whether it is working? It is more comforted than just
:57:02. > :57:06.looking at the wildlife element but we do know that badgers are infected
:57:07. > :57:10.by each other in parts of Wales. The programme is for five years, we
:57:11. > :57:15.have completed two, and we are into your three, saw the results are by
:57:16. > :57:19.no means available yet. -- yeah three.
:57:20. > :57:24.We will have to wait five years and the completion of the programme to
:57:25. > :57:29.know whether it has worked or not? That element of the programme, yes,
:57:30. > :57:34.but other measures, regarding movement restrictions, etc, are also
:57:35. > :57:38.in place, not just the Northamptonshire but across Wales.
:57:39. > :57:42.Are you slaughtering fewer cattle in North temperature?
:57:43. > :57:45.There has been a reduction in TB across the whole of Wales in the
:57:46. > :57:49.last 12 months compared to the previous 12. The reduction in
:57:50. > :57:54.temperature is in line with the national reduction. Now we have no
:57:55. > :57:56.active -- evidence the vaccination programme in badgers is delivering
:57:57. > :58:02.an additional benefit and we would not to see any evidence -- not
:58:03. > :58:06.expect to see any evidence at this stage.
:58:07. > :58:09.It will cost around four and a half million pounds over five years.
:58:10. > :58:15.It seems a lot of money for the government to spend on something
:58:16. > :58:17.when you don't know whether it is working.
:58:18. > :58:23.Is the Welsh government spending ?4.5 million on anything else it
:58:24. > :58:27.does not know it works? The TV programme cost ?20 million
:58:28. > :58:30.last year. The bulk of that was on cattle testing, bio-security
:58:31. > :58:35.measures and compensation for farmers, and a small sub -- bore
:58:36. > :58:37.portion of that was spent on vaccinating badgers.
:58:38. > :58:42.This conference is held every five or six years, the last one was in
:58:43. > :58:48.New Zealand, and in New Zealand they are culling wildlife, possums, not
:58:49. > :58:51.badgers. When representatives of New Zealand come to Cardiff this week
:58:52. > :58:53.will you tell them they have got it wrong and they should be
:58:54. > :58:57.vaccinating? Certainly not, they have a different
:58:58. > :59:03.challenge with possums, that are causing damage also to crops and
:59:04. > :59:07.trees. And they are not native to New Zealand, so it is a different
:59:08. > :59:11.approach and they are killing possums. They are vaccinating them
:59:12. > :59:15.in some areas and also, importantly, testing cattle and removing infected
:59:16. > :59:19.cattle. You always have to have the balance between all the different
:59:20. > :59:21.elements of the programme, making sure you are tackling all sources of
:59:22. > :59:27.infection. So when supporters of the cult
:59:28. > :59:30.pointed to New Zealand and ask why we cannot do that in Wales, what is
:59:31. > :59:35.the answer? We have to stop wildlife and cattle
:59:36. > :59:39.infecting each other. They have a problem in North America with white
:59:40. > :59:44.tailed deer causing an infection and cattle. In Spain it is wild boar,
:59:45. > :59:51.New Zealand at its possums, and here in Wales we have problems with
:59:52. > :59:53.badgers. There are different approaches to stopping them
:59:54. > :59:59.infecting each other. Have we ruled out the idea of a
:00:00. > :00:05.coal? Will it ever be revisited in Wales?
:00:06. > :00:09.We have to strike the balance between protecting the cattle and
:00:10. > :00:12.making sure the badgers are not infecting the couple, one approach
:00:13. > :00:14.is vaccination and we're looking at that at the moment.
:00:15. > :00:20.Is this conference a big deal for you and Wales?
:00:21. > :00:23.It is a massive deal, I am surprised -- so proud the conference is being
:00:24. > :00:35.held there. We will showcase the work we are doing on TB eradication
:00:36. > :00:40.unit Wales. -- here in Wales. This is a long-term programme, it can
:00:41. > :00:44.take a long time, 22 years in Australia to eradicate TB. We have
:00:45. > :00:51.to take on board all developments as we proceed because what we want is a
:00:52. > :00:55.TB free whales. -- Wales. Thank you for joining us. That is it
:00:56. > :00:59.for this week, I hope you can join us next week when we will be back on
:01:00. > :01:03.BBC1 Wales at the same time. All of the latest politics on Wales
:01:04. > :01:12.come on BBC1 Wales, There are big changes afoot
:01:13. > :01:15.in the EU following last month's European elections,
:01:16. > :01:17.not least who'll get the top job But
:01:18. > :01:21.behind the scenes the parties have also been jockeying for position as
:01:22. > :01:24.they try to form the big groups that And UKIP seems to have been
:01:25. > :01:29.struggling to keep its influence Here's Adam to explain
:01:30. > :01:41.how it all works. If you want your party to be a big
:01:42. > :01:45.cheese in the European Parliament, you need to form a political group.
:01:46. > :01:49.By doing this, the party gets more money, more positions on committees
:01:50. > :01:56.and even more speaking rights in the chamber. But the parliament's rules
:01:57. > :02:01.are strict. And to form a group you need a group of 25 MPs from at least
:02:02. > :02:04.seven different countries. For UKIP, the number of MEPs will not be a
:02:05. > :02:09.problem because they already have 24 of their own, but the different
:02:10. > :02:13.nationalities are more of a challenge. Nigel Farage was not
:02:14. > :02:18.helped by the Tories stealing -- stealing his former Danish and
:02:19. > :02:26.Finnish allies, and the pen pinching his Italian charms. Nigel needs a
:02:27. > :02:29.new charm and fast. He has already signed up Lithuania's order and
:02:30. > :02:35.justice, a free citizen from Prague, and the Dutchman from the reformed
:02:36. > :02:43.political party. The big signing was the 17 members of the Italian Beppe
:02:44. > :02:46.Griego's 5-star movement, but it leaves UKIP short of two more
:02:47. > :02:50.international powers, and with the clock ticking, it looks like his
:02:51. > :02:54.hopes resting on the Swedish Democrats and the Polish new right
:02:55. > :03:01.Congress. They both make their decisions next week.
:03:02. > :03:06.What is the latest? UKIP have enough MEPs with their pals, but they need
:03:07. > :03:11.seven countries, as I understand it. They are not there yet. They are
:03:12. > :03:15.wrapped five countries and need another two. UKIP are being quite
:03:16. > :03:19.buoyant and say they will be meeting MEPs from five countries next week
:03:20. > :03:24.and are pretty confident they will get those countries, but as Adam was
:03:25. > :03:33.saying, the problem UKIP have had is that the Conservatives have nicked
:03:34. > :03:35.two of the parties. That is why they have been struggling, but they say
:03:36. > :03:40.they are confident they will do it. Meanwhile, the Tories new best
:03:41. > :03:46.friends are the German Eurosceptic party, which has put Mrs Merkel's
:03:47. > :03:52.nose out of joint, but we don't quite know whether she really cares
:03:53. > :03:58.or not. I think Cameron has played his hand badly since he committed to
:03:59. > :04:05.pulling out of the EBP. And he should be in there with Angela
:04:06. > :04:11.Merkel and if he needs to make a major renegotiation, he needs to
:04:12. > :04:16.have the Germans onside. Instead there is a breakaway party and its
:04:17. > :04:22.like supporting UKIP. His party are supporting her worst enemy. It
:04:23. > :04:24.certainly causing him a lot of problems, and undermines his
:04:25. > :04:31.negotiating position, but isn't there an honesty that the
:04:32. > :04:35.centre-right group is explicitly Federalist, and the Tories are
:04:36. > :04:39.anything but, so they came out, and Labour are in the Socialist group,
:04:40. > :04:44.which is explicitly Federalist, and they are not Federalist either. If
:04:45. > :04:48.you want support and influence in Europe, you have to trade, and he
:04:49. > :04:54.hasn't done this well. The whole business with who will be the next
:04:55. > :04:59.president, he needs Angela Merkel's support. Without that, it won't
:05:00. > :05:06.happen. He should have been trading behind-the-scenes, but he has
:05:07. > :05:09.exposed himself in public, and if he doesn't win it looks uncertain, and
:05:10. > :05:12.he will be in a position where he has to go back to his own party and
:05:13. > :05:16.say they are not getting anywhere. That is dangerous and takes us
:05:17. > :05:23.closer to the Exeter, which I don't think would want. The danger for Mr
:05:24. > :05:28.Cameron is if it is the president of the commission, he will save you
:05:29. > :05:31.cannot stop a federalist becoming head of the European commission,
:05:32. > :05:38.what chance do you have of repatriating lots of powers back to
:05:39. > :05:42.London. There are lots of Tory MPs dying to make the argument. My hunch
:05:43. > :05:46.is that he won't make it. There are too many countries opposed to his
:05:47. > :05:52.presidency and even the country notionally in favour of it, Germany,
:05:53. > :05:57.is failing in youth -- enthusiasm. Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give
:05:58. > :06:04.in to the Brits this. Her own side once it as well, though some reason
:06:05. > :06:08.the German media says it. When she tried to reach out and said to look
:06:09. > :06:13.at the other candidates, she got such abuse on the right wing press
:06:14. > :06:23.from her own country and party she had to retreat. Janan is right that
:06:24. > :06:29.there is opposition to Juncker, but as long as Cameron turns it into an
:06:30. > :06:35.argument about Britain and Europe, he will strengthen the hand of
:06:36. > :06:40.Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks Juncker is inappropriate. She did
:06:41. > :06:43.not like the process, which was a power grab by the European
:06:44. > :06:47.Parliament, but when David Cameron went to the council and said that if
:06:48. > :06:54.I don't get my way, we could leave the EU, that led to the backlash,
:06:55. > :06:58.most significantly from the SPD in Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only
:06:59. > :07:01.David Cameron had made the argument that Juncker is bad for Europe, then
:07:02. > :07:06.he would have found his natural allies would have felt more
:07:07. > :07:14.comfortable following behind. Enough Europe. I want to show you a
:07:15. > :07:18.picture. See what you think of this. When I saw that picture, I thought
:07:19. > :07:25.it was so ludicrous that it had to have been photo shop. Discuss. He is
:07:26. > :07:30.holding it with a certain disdain, looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous
:07:31. > :07:35.picture for Ed Miliband. His strength is authenticity, sincerity
:07:36. > :07:38.and cleverness. And he blows all of that. He was the one who took on
:07:39. > :07:43.Murdoch, very bravely and dangerously, and one, really. Now
:07:44. > :07:47.there he is supporting Murdoch's son. It's a big mistake, not just in
:07:48. > :07:55.Liverpool, where obviously they are particularly incensed. And then he
:07:56. > :07:59.apologises. Sort of apologises and understands why Liverpool feels
:08:00. > :08:03.upset. But it is a fundamental error and I hope he learns from this, that
:08:04. > :08:08.he must absolutely stay true to himself. That's all he's got going
:08:09. > :08:16.for him. Who do we blame? His advisers or himself? In the end,
:08:17. > :08:23.himself. Nobody forced him to do it. On this one, he called it wrong.
:08:24. > :08:30.It's a sign of the rather the bridal state of the Labour Party is that
:08:31. > :08:39.his candidates were vocal in attacking him doing this. It's a
:08:40. > :08:41.sign of how readable Ed Miliband is at Parliamentary level. I don't
:08:42. > :08:50.think you should have apologised. The mistake he made was associating
:08:51. > :08:55.himself with that newspaper. The mistake was the prior three years
:08:56. > :09:00.when he went too far as portraying the Murdoch empire beyond the pale.
:09:01. > :09:05.He made a case against phone hacking and offences in that regard without
:09:06. > :09:09.going as far as he did with the rhetoric. To do that, and then pose
:09:10. > :09:13.with the Sun newspaper, the juxtaposition is what did for him,
:09:14. > :09:18.not the mere fact of posing with it. Maybe he did not know what he was
:09:19. > :09:21.doing because we were told he doesn't read the British
:09:22. > :09:26.newspapers. It was football, and he has posed with the Sun newspaper
:09:27. > :09:30.before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg posed as well. But with the Sun
:09:31. > :09:34.newspaper and football, you tread carefully. That was the mistake. You
:09:35. > :09:38.get the impression from the picture that he looks so uncomfortable that
:09:39. > :09:42.you wonder whether there was a full process of consultation that went on
:09:43. > :09:45.within his media operation, within his political operation. Was he
:09:46. > :09:49.fully aware of what would happen question what he looks so incredibly
:09:50. > :09:54.uncomfortable. But at the end of the day, leaders have to take
:09:55. > :09:58.responsibility. It is cultural as well. That picture says, I am down
:09:59. > :10:03.there with the football blokes and you think, you are not. That is not
:10:04. > :10:05.what people will vote for. Be yourself and don't pretend to be
:10:06. > :10:10.something else because it never works. But the polls suggest that
:10:11. > :10:16.the British voters don't yet see Ed Miliband as prime ministerial. The
:10:17. > :10:19.worst thing you can then do is get involved in stunts that are more
:10:20. > :10:23.likely to reinforce that idea than counter it. There was a precedent
:10:24. > :10:30.for it in the last parliament which was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign
:10:31. > :10:35.a populist touch. He did it by telling the contents of his iPod.
:10:36. > :10:40.The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred because he was trying too hard. Not
:10:41. > :10:44.uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband, all the other leaders have done it. At
:10:45. > :10:49.the moment he more vulnerable. Yes, and he is less popular than his
:10:50. > :10:53.party. Labour has quite a popular brand, in a resilient way, in a way
:10:54. > :10:57.they don't with the Tories, yet their leader is a personal problem.
:10:58. > :11:03.The pressure is on him to do stunts like this. Will there be a shadow
:11:04. > :11:06.cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to get the cabinet reshuffle out of the
:11:07. > :11:10.way first, and that might come next week, maybe by the time of the
:11:11. > :11:13.summer recess, but the first thing that the prime Minister do is work
:11:14. > :11:20.out who is the UK candidate for the European Commissioner. Is it not the
:11:21. > :11:25.case probably that Ed Balls is becoming semi-detached from the Ed
:11:26. > :11:28.Miliband project? I don't think entirely. Nothing gets agreed
:11:29. > :11:31.without both of the end are green. Ed Balls is controversial. He has
:11:32. > :11:36.great pluses and minuses and is a big figure. Labour doesn't have that
:11:37. > :11:41.many big figures. It's quite hard to think who would be a heavy hitter as
:11:42. > :11:46.a possible Chancellor. He is a convincing chancellor to the future,
:11:47. > :11:51.Love him. He has the heft -- love him or hate him. Any possibility Ed
:11:52. > :11:56.Balls could be moved as shadow chancellor? The timing is convenient
:11:57. > :11:59.because the Scottish referendum ends in the autumn and Alistair Darling
:12:00. > :12:04.becomes a free man, win or lose. I don't think Ed Balls will be removed
:12:05. > :12:06.because moving him would be an admission that everything the Labour
:12:07. > :12:10.Party said about the economy to the preceding four years has been a
:12:11. > :12:15.mistake. And you can't do that nine months before a general election.
:12:16. > :12:19.You invite ridicule. But relations between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are
:12:20. > :12:22.not great at the moment. The Ed Miliband team are very, very
:12:23. > :12:26.suspicious of this new love in between Ed Balls and Peter
:12:27. > :12:30.Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say that he spotted the Ed Balls talents
:12:31. > :12:36.in the original place and appointed him to the Gordon Brown team after
:12:37. > :12:40.the disaster of 1992. But things obviously went awry, and now Ed
:12:41. > :12:45.Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue Rappaport, and that is with enormous
:12:46. > :12:50.suspicion -- they have a new Rappaport. With good reason because
:12:51. > :12:52.it's about policy. It's about the attitude towards business. Should
:12:53. > :12:58.they be out there saying they will get the tax dodgers, Starbucks,
:12:59. > :13:03.Vodafone, are we going to take on business in a big way? In a way that
:13:04. > :13:06.Ed Miliband has quite bravely said. On the other hand, Ed Balls and
:13:07. > :13:10.Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on, we only won in 1997 by being
:13:11. > :13:13.business friendly. Sorry to rush you. We are running out of time.
:13:14. > :13:17.The Daily Politics will be back every day this week at midday,
:13:18. > :13:19.and I'll be back here next Sunday when I'll be joined
:13:20. > :13:22.by the shadow work and pensions secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember
:13:23. > :13:53.if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:13:54. > :13:59.Magnificent. The power base of medieval England.
:14:00. > :14:05.Charles' ceiling was a piece of breathtaking arrogance.
:14:06. > :14:13.You get a sense of the people who made the palaces.
:14:14. > :14:17.as I unlock the secrets of Britain's great palaces.