:00:35. > :00:40.Welcome to the Sunday Politics, coming to you live from Edinburgh.
:00:41. > :00:43.Terrorists who use the name Islamic State have carried out
:00:44. > :00:51.their threat to murder the British aid worker, David Haines.
:00:52. > :00:54.They released a video late last night, showing a masked man
:00:55. > :01:00.beheading Mr Haines, who was taken captive in Syria 18 months ago.
:01:01. > :01:02.The jihadist group have already beheaded two American journalists.
:01:03. > :01:04.Now it's threatening the life of a second British hostage.
:01:05. > :01:07.David Cameron described the murder as an act of pure evil.
:01:08. > :01:09.As we speak he's chairing a meeting of the Cabinet's COBRA
:01:10. > :01:13.President Obama said the US stood shoulder to shoulder
:01:14. > :01:21.Alex Salmond says Scotland "stands on the cusp of history" as
:01:22. > :01:23.he predicts a historic and substantial victory in
:01:24. > :01:31.As the latest polls show the two sides neck and neck,
:01:32. > :01:33.I'll ask Yes campaigner and socialist Tommy Sheridan about his
:01:34. > :01:41.And after last week's last-minute interventions from Gordon Brown,
:01:42. > :01:43.David Cameron, Ed Miliband and big business, I'll ask
:01:44. > :01:54.Later, Welsh views on Scottish it's enough to win over waverers.
:01:55. > :01:56.Later, Welsh views on Scottish independence. Leanne Wood
:01:57. > :01:58.Later, Welsh views on Scottish step closer back to Parliament. Is
:01:59. > :02:10.it a lame-duck administration? Late last night, as most folk were
:02:11. > :02:13.preparing for bed, news broke that Islamic State extremists had carried
:02:14. > :02:16.out their threat to murder the The group released a video, similar
:02:17. > :02:20.to the ones in which two American journalists were decapitated,
:02:21. > :02:22.showing a masked man apparently beheading Mr Haines who was taken
:02:23. > :02:26.captive in Syria last year. The terrorist,
:02:27. > :02:28.who has a southern British accent, also threatened the life
:02:29. > :02:32.of a second hostage from the UK. Mr Haines is
:02:33. > :02:35.the third Westerner to be killed His family have paid tribute to
:02:36. > :02:39.his humanitarian work; they say he David Cameron described the murder
:02:40. > :02:47.as an act of pure evil, and said his heart went out to Mr Haines?
:02:48. > :02:49.family, who had shown extraordinary Mr Cameron went on to say,
:02:50. > :02:59."We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers
:03:00. > :03:02.and ensure they face justice, Mr Haines was born in England
:03:03. > :03:06.and brought up in Scotland. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond
:03:07. > :03:23.condemned the killing on the Marr Well, it's an act of unspeakable
:03:24. > :03:28.barbarism that we have seen. Obviously our condolences go to the
:03:29. > :03:30.family members of David Haynes who have borne this with such fortitude
:03:31. > :03:37.in recent months -- David Alex Salmond was also asked
:03:38. > :03:46.whether he supported military action Haines there is no reason to believe
:03:47. > :03:55.whatsoever that China or Russia or any country will see their will to
:03:56. > :03:57.deal with this barbarism. There is a will for effective, international,
:03:58. > :04:04.legal action but it must come in that fashion, and I would urge that
:04:05. > :04:06.to be a consideration to develop a collective response to what is a
:04:07. > :04:07.threat to humanity. Our security correspondent
:04:08. > :04:20.Gordon Corera joins me now Gordon, as we speak, the Cobra
:04:21. > :04:26.emergency meeting is meeting yet again. It meets a lot these days. I
:04:27. > :04:30.would suggest that the options facing this committee and Mr Cameron
:04:31. > :04:32.are pretty limited. That's right. I think they are extremely limited.
:04:33. > :04:38.They have been all along in these hostage situations. We know, for
:04:39. > :04:42.instance, that British government policy is not to pay ransom is to
:04:43. > :04:46.kidnappers. Other Europeans states are thought to have done so to get
:04:47. > :04:51.hostages released, and also not to make substantive policy concessions
:04:52. > :04:57.to the groups, so while there might be contact, there won't be a lot of
:04:58. > :05:04.options left. We know the US in the past has looked at rescue missions
:05:05. > :05:08.and in July on operation to free the hostages, landing at the oil
:05:09. > :05:13.facility in Syria but finding no one there. If you look at the options,
:05:14. > :05:20.they are not great. That is the difficult situation which Cobra will
:05:21. > :05:24.have been discussing the last hour. Does this make it more likely,
:05:25. > :05:29.because it might have the direction the government was going in any way,
:05:30. > :05:34.that we join with the Americans in perhaps the regional allies in air
:05:35. > :05:40.strikes against Islamic State, not just in Iraq, but also in Syria. We
:05:41. > :05:43.heard from President Obama outlining his strategy against Islamic State
:05:44. > :05:47.last week when he talked about building a coalition, about
:05:48. > :05:53.authorising air strikes. And training troops. We are still
:05:54. > :06:00.waiting to hear what exact role the UK will play in that. We know it
:06:01. > :06:08.will play a role because it has been arming the fishmonger forces but the
:06:09. > :06:12.question is, will it actually conduct military strikes in Iraq --
:06:13. > :06:25.arming the passion are there. We have not got a clear answer from
:06:26. > :06:28.government and that is something where they are ours to discuss what
:06:29. > :06:32.was around the table. It's possible we might learn some more today as a
:06:33. > :06:36.result of the Cobra meeting, but I think the government will be wanting
:06:37. > :06:39.to not be seen to suddenly rushed to a completely different policy as a
:06:40. > :06:44.result of one incident, however terrible it is. Whether it hardens
:06:45. > :06:47.their reserve -- resolved to play more active role in the coalition,
:06:48. > :06:53.that's possible, but we have to wait see to get the detail. -- wait and
:06:54. > :06:59.see. What the whole country would like to see would be British and
:07:00. > :07:03.American special forces going in and getting these guys. I think that
:07:04. > :07:09.would unite the nation. But that is very difficult, isn't it? It is. As
:07:10. > :07:12.you saw with a rescue mission a few months ago, the problem is getting
:07:13. > :07:15.actionable intelligence on the ground at a particular moment. The
:07:16. > :07:20.theory is that the group of kidnappers are moving the hostages
:07:21. > :07:23.may be even every or few days, so you need intelligence and quickly
:07:24. > :07:28.and then you need to be able to get the team onto the ground into that
:07:29. > :07:31.time frame. That is clearly a possibility and something they will
:07:32. > :07:35.be looking at, but it certainly challenging, particularly when you
:07:36. > :07:39.have a group like this operating within its own state, effectively,
:07:40. > :07:45.and knowing that other people are looking very hard for it and doing
:07:46. > :07:46.everything they can to hide. Gordon, thank you very much.
:07:47. > :07:52.Clegg dropped everything and headed to Scotland when a poll last Sunday
:07:53. > :07:59.gave the YES vote its first ever lead in this prolonged referendum
:08:00. > :08:01.If their reaction looked like panic, that's because it was.
:08:02. > :08:04.Until last weekend, though the polls had been narrowing,
:08:05. > :08:07.the consensus was still that NO would carry the day.
:08:08. > :08:15.The new consensus is that it's too close to call.
:08:16. > :08:22.If we look back at the beginning of the year, public opinion in Scotland
:08:23. > :08:26.was fairly settled. The no campaign had a commanding lead across the
:08:27. > :08:29.opinion polls, excluding the undecided voters. At one point, at
:08:30. > :08:37.the end of last year, an average of 63% backed the no campaign and only
:08:38. > :08:41.37% supported a yes vote. As we move into 2014 and up to this week, you
:08:42. > :08:45.can see a clear trend emerging as the lead for the no campaign gets
:08:46. > :08:48.narrower and narrower and the average of the most recent polls has
:08:49. > :08:53.the contest hanging in the balance. There was a poll a week ago that put
:08:54. > :08:58.the Yes campaign in the lead for the first time, 51% against 49%, but
:08:59. > :09:03.that lead was not reflected in the other polls last week. For polls
:09:04. > :09:15.were published last night, one by Salvation, for the macro-2 campaign
:09:16. > :09:17.-- Better Together campaign, and there was another that gave a one
:09:18. > :09:21.percentage point there was another that gave a one
:09:22. > :09:25.the yes campaign back in the lead at 54% and the no campaign at
:09:26. > :09:30.the yes campaign back in the lead at their sample size was
:09:31. > :09:32.the yes campaign back in the lead at adults, smaller than usual. Another
:09:33. > :09:43.suggests that the contest remains on a knife edge with 49.4% against
:09:44. > :09:49.50.6%. When fed into the poll of polls the figures average out with
:09:50. > :09:52.yes at 49% and polls -- no at 51%. But some people think 18% are
:09:53. > :09:56.undecided, and it is how they vote gets -- when they get to the polling
:09:57. > :09:58.booths that could make all the difference.
:09:59. > :10:02.campaigner and Respect Party MP, George Galloway.
:10:03. > :10:09.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Big business, big oil, big banks, the
:10:10. > :10:15.Tories, the Orange order, all against Scottish independence. You
:10:16. > :10:17.sure you are on right side? Yes, because the interests of working
:10:18. > :10:20.people are in staying together. This is a troubled
:10:21. > :10:22.people are in staying together. This a very long marriage, in
:10:23. > :10:25.people are in staying together. This good things and
:10:26. > :10:28.people are in staying together. This achieved together. And there is no
:10:29. > :10:31.doubt that the crockery is being thrown around the house of the
:10:32. > :10:35.minute. But I believe that the underlying interests of working
:10:36. > :10:39.people are on working on the relationship rather than divorce. I
:10:40. > :10:43.have been divorced. It's a very messy, acrimonious, bitter
:10:44. > :10:44.have been divorced. It's a very children will stop that's why I am
:10:45. > :10:51.here. You children will stop that's why I am
:10:52. > :10:53.people, they seem to have concluded that the social democracy they want
:10:54. > :10:57.people, they seem to have concluded to create cannot now be done in a UK
:10:58. > :11:03.people, they seem to have concluded context. Why should they not have a
:11:04. > :11:03.shot of going it alone? Because the opposite
:11:04. > :11:07.shot of going it alone? Because the will cause a race to the bottom
:11:08. > :11:08.shot of going it alone? Because the taxation. Alex Salmond has already
:11:09. > :11:13.announced he will cut the taxation. Alex Salmond has already
:11:14. > :11:18.companies, corporation tax, down to 3% hello whatever it is in the rest
:11:19. > :11:24.of these islands. And business will only be attracted to come here,
:11:25. > :11:27.country of 5 million people on if there is low regulation, low public
:11:28. > :11:33.expenditure, low levels of taxation for them will stop you cannot have
:11:34. > :11:35.expenditure, low levels of taxation Scandinavian social democracy on
:11:36. > :11:37.Texan levels of taxation. The British government, as will be, the
:11:38. > :11:43.Texan levels of taxation. The Salmond to the bottom. If he cuts it
:11:44. > :11:51.by three, they will cut it by four. And so on. So whether some people
:11:52. > :11:54.cannot see it clearly yet or not, the interests of the working people
:11:55. > :11:58.on both sides of the border would be gravely damaged by separation. Let's
:11:59. > :12:01.take the interest of the working people. As you know, as well as
:12:02. > :12:06.anyone, the coalition is in fermenting both a series of cuts and
:12:07. > :12:10.reforms in welfare, and labour, Westminster Labour, has only limited
:12:11. > :12:15.plans to reverse any of that. Surely if you want to preserve the welfare
:12:16. > :12:21.state as it is, independence is the way to do it. For the reasons I just
:12:22. > :12:25.explain, I don't believe that. But Ed Miliband will be along in a
:12:26. > :12:31.minute. He will be along in May. The polls indicate... They say he is
:12:32. > :12:36.only four or 5%, that is the average. Like the referendum, the
:12:37. > :12:41.next general election could be nip and tuck. I don't, myself, think
:12:42. > :12:44.that the time of David Cameron as Prime Minister is for much longer. I
:12:45. > :12:49.think there will be a Labour government in the spring and the
:12:50. > :12:54.Labour government in London and a stronger Scottish Parliament, super
:12:55. > :13:00.Devo Max, that is now on the table. That is the best arrangement of
:13:01. > :13:04.people in the country. But the people of Scotland surely cannot
:13:05. > :13:08.base a decision on independence on your feeling that Labour might win
:13:09. > :13:12.the next general election. It is my feeling. When the Tories were beaten
:13:13. > :13:16.on the bedroom tax last week in the house, it was written all over the
:13:17. > :13:22.faces of the government side not only that they were headed for
:13:23. > :13:31.defeat, but probably a massive fishy -- Fisher. I think the race to the
:13:32. > :13:37.bottom that I have proper size will mean that the welfare state will be
:13:38. > :13:43.a distant memory quite soon. The cuts and the run on the Scottish
:13:44. > :13:47.economy here in Edinburgh, the financial services industry, that
:13:48. > :13:52.will be gravely damage. The Ministry of Defence jobs in Scotland
:13:53. > :14:00.decimated, probably ended, more or less. It will be a time of cuts and
:14:01. > :14:03.austerity, maybe super austerity in an independent Scotland. You
:14:04. > :14:06.mentioned defence. What about nuclear weapons? The Tories and
:14:07. > :14:10.Labour will keep them. You are against them. Surely the only way to
:14:11. > :14:17.be rid of them in Scotland is by independence. But you are not rid of
:14:18. > :14:21.them by telling them down the river. The danger would be the same --
:14:22. > :14:27.telling them down the river. The danger would be the same. Nuclear
:14:28. > :14:32.radiation does not respect Alex Salmond's national boundaries. They
:14:33. > :14:35.would be committed to immediately joining NATO, which is bristling
:14:36. > :14:40.with nuclear weapons and is what -- involved in wars across the
:14:41. > :14:44.Atlantic. So anyone looking for a peace option will have to elect a
:14:45. > :14:48.government in Britain as a whole that will get rid of nuclear weapons
:14:49. > :14:51.and get out of military entanglements. We are in one again
:14:52. > :14:58.now. I have been up the whole night, till 5am, dealing with some of the
:14:59. > :15:02.consequences and implications of the grave international matter that you
:15:03. > :15:09.opened the show with. David Haines and the fate of the hostage still in
:15:10. > :15:12.their hands. There are many other hostages as well. And there are many
:15:13. > :15:18.people dying who are neither British nor American. I have, somehow, been
:15:19. > :15:24.drawn into this matter. And it showed me, again, that the world is
:15:25. > :15:32.interdependent. It is absolutely riven with division and hatred, and
:15:33. > :15:37.this is the worst possible time to be opting out of the world to set up
:15:38. > :15:44.a small mini-state on the promises of Alex Salmond of social democracy
:15:45. > :15:47.funded by Texan taxes. Let's, for the sake of the next question,
:15:48. > :15:50.assume that everything you have told us is true. Why is your side
:15:51. > :16:07.squandering a 20 point lead? I will have a great deal to say
:16:08. > :16:15.about that, whatever the result. This is very much a Scottish Labour
:16:16. > :16:20.project, is that not a condemnation of Scottish Labour? It is
:16:21. > :16:37.potentially on its deathbed. The country breaking up, the principal
:16:38. > :16:42.responsibility will be on them. And the pitiful, absolutely pitiful job
:16:43. > :16:49.that has been made of defending a 300-year-old relationship in this
:16:50. > :16:54.island by the Scottish Labour leadership is really terrible for me
:16:55. > :16:59.to behold, even though I'm no longer one of them. I don't know how they
:17:00. > :17:04.are going to get out of this deathbed. Do you agree that if this
:17:05. > :17:08.referendum is lost by your side, it will be because traditional
:17:09. > :17:12.working-class Labour voters, particularly in the west of
:17:13. > :17:18.Scotland, have abundant Labour and decided to vote for independence?
:17:19. > :17:23.Without a doubt, the number of Labour voters intending to vote yes
:17:24. > :17:28.is disturbingly high. Even just months ago during the European
:17:29. > :17:33.Parliament elections, swathes of people who didn't vote SNP will be
:17:34. > :17:39.voting yes on Thursday. That is a grave squandering of a great legacy
:17:40. > :17:46.of Scottish Labour history, which history will decree as
:17:47. > :17:52.unforgivable. If Labour is to get out of its deathbed in Scotland, it
:17:53. > :17:57.will have to become Labour again. Real Labour again. I am ready to
:17:58. > :18:05.help them with that. My goodness, they need help with it. I wonder if
:18:06. > :18:10.it isn't just a failure of Labour in Scotland. People all over Britain
:18:11. > :18:13.are increasingly fed up with the Westminster system, but it is only
:18:14. > :18:18.the Scots who currently have the chance to break free from it, so why
:18:19. > :18:25.shouldn't they? That is exactly right. They see a parliament of
:18:26. > :18:31.expenses cheats led by Lord snooty and the Bullingdon club elite,
:18:32. > :18:36.carrying through austerity for many but not for themselves and they are
:18:37. > :18:41.repulsed by it. They need change, but you can go backwards and call it
:18:42. > :18:47.change but it will be worse than the situation you have now. A lot of
:18:48. > :18:54.Scottish people don't buy that. It is a big gamble. If I were poised to
:18:55. > :18:59.put my family's life savings on the roulette table in Las Vegas, my wife
:19:00. > :19:03.would not be scaremongering if she pointed out the potential
:19:04. > :19:08.consequences if I'd lost. She would not be negative by telling me that
:19:09. > :19:11.is my children's money I am risking. If I jumped off this roof it would
:19:12. > :19:16.change my point of view, but it would be worse than the point of
:19:17. > :19:21.view I have now. There is another issue here because the Scots are
:19:22. > :19:28.being asked to gamble on the Westminster parties, which they are
:19:29. > :19:32.already suspicious of, of delivering home rule. Alistair Darling could
:19:33. > :19:37.not even tell me if Ed Balls had signed off on more income tax powers
:19:38. > :19:42.for Scotland, so that is a gamble for the Scots. I feel the British
:19:43. > :19:48.state has had such a shake out of all this that they would be beyond
:19:49. > :19:54.idiots, they would be insane now to risk all of this flaring up again
:19:55. > :20:00.because whatever happens, if we win on Thursday, it is going to be
:20:01. > :20:05.narrowly. It will be a severe fissure in Scotland. A great deal of
:20:06. > :20:11.unpleasantness that we are already aware of. That could turn but we're
:20:12. > :20:17.still. It would be dicing with death, playing with fire, to let
:20:18. > :20:22.Scottish people down after Thursday if we narrowly win. If you narrowly
:20:23. > :20:28.win, and if there are moves to this home rule Mr Brown has been talking
:20:29. > :20:35.about, England hasn't spoken yet on this. Whilst England would probably
:20:36. > :20:41.not want to stop -- stop Scotland getting this, they would say, what
:20:42. > :20:49.about us? It could delay the whole procedure. It is necessary, you are
:20:50. > :20:54.right. England should have home rule, and I screamed at Scottish
:20:55. > :21:00.Labour MPs going into the vote to introduce tuition fees in England. I
:21:01. > :21:05.told them this was a constitutional monstrosity, as well as a crime
:21:06. > :21:12.against young people in England. It was risking everything. We are led
:21:13. > :21:19.by idiots. Our leaders are not James Bonds, they are Austin powers. We
:21:20. > :21:20.need to change the leadership, not rip up a 300-year-old marriage.
:21:21. > :21:26.Thank you. It's been one of the longest and
:21:27. > :21:29.hardest fought political campaigns in history, with Alex Salmond firing
:21:30. > :21:32.the starting gun on the referendum Adam's been stitching together
:21:33. > :21:47.the key moments of the campaign. It is the other thing drawing people
:21:48. > :21:53.to the Scottish parliament, the new great tapestry of Scotland. It is
:21:54. > :21:59.the story of battles won and lost, Scottish moments, British moments,
:22:00. > :22:04.famous Scots, and not so famous Scots. There is even a panel
:22:05. > :22:08.dedicated to the rise of the SNP. Alex Salmond's majority in the
:22:09. > :22:13.elections in 2011 made the referendum inevitable. It became
:22:14. > :22:18.reality when he and David Cameron did a deal in Edinburgh one year
:22:19. > :22:23.later. The Scottish Government set out its plans for independence in
:22:24. > :22:32.this book, just a wish list to some, a sacred text to others. This White
:22:33. > :22:37.Paper is the most detailed improvements that any people have
:22:38. > :22:42.ever been offered in the world as a basis for becoming an independent
:22:43. > :22:44.country. The no campaign, called Better Together, united the Tories,
:22:45. > :22:54.Labour and the Lib Dems under the Better Together, united the Tories,
:22:55. > :22:57.with two years of photo opportunities and a lot of
:22:58. > :23:02.campaigning. For the no campaign, Jim Murphy went on tour but took a
:23:03. > :23:07.break when he was egged and his events were often hijacked by yes
:23:08. > :23:13.campaigners who were accused of being intimidating. In turn, they
:23:14. > :23:21.accused the no campaign of using scare tactics. Things heated up when
:23:22. > :23:26.the TV dinner -- during the TV debate. Fever pitch was reached one
:23:27. > :23:32.week ago when one poll suggested the yes campaign was in the lead for the
:23:33. > :23:36.first time. The three main Westminster leaders ditched PMQs to
:23:37. > :23:41.head north. I think people can feel it is like a general election, that
:23:42. > :23:44.you make a decision and five years later you can make another decision
:23:45. > :23:53.if you are fed up with the Tories, give them a kick... This is totally
:23:54. > :23:58.different. And Labour shelved not quite 100 MPs onto the train, Alex
:23:59. > :24:03.Salmond took a helicopter instead. This is about the formation of the
:24:04. > :24:12.NHS. A big theme of the yes campaign is that changes to the NHS in Linden
:24:13. > :24:18.-- in England would lead to privatisation in Scotland. Alex
:24:19. > :24:25.Salmond's plan to share the pound was trashed by big names. There were
:24:26. > :24:29.other big question is, what would happen to military hardware like
:24:30. > :24:36.Trident based on the Clyde? Would an independent Scotland be able to join
:24:37. > :24:39.the EU? And how much oil was left underneath the North Sea?
:24:40. > :24:47.This panel is about famous Scots, we have Annie Lennox, Stephen Hendry,
:24:48. > :24:51.Sean Connery. I cannot see Gordon Brown. These are big changes we are
:24:52. > :24:57.proposing to strengthen the Scottish parliament, but at the same time to
:24:58. > :25:01.stay as part of the UK. A regular on the campaign, he was front and
:25:02. > :25:05.centre when things got close, unveiling a timetable for more
:25:06. > :25:09.devolution. People wondered whether Ed Miliband was able to reach the
:25:10. > :25:14.parts of Scotland Labour leader should reach, and at Westminster
:25:15. > :25:18.some Tories pondered whether David Cameron could stay as prime minister
:25:19. > :25:23.if there was a yes vote. This tapestry is nonpartisan so it is a
:25:24. > :25:29.good place to get away from it all but it is crystallising voters'
:25:30. > :25:39.views. Look at what we have contributed to Great Britain,
:25:40. > :25:41.views. Look at what we have British. This is what people from
:25:42. > :25:45.Scotland have done, taken to the rest of the world in many cases and
:25:46. > :25:49.I think I am going to vote yes. I am so inspired by it. It has certainly
:25:50. > :25:50.inspired me to have a go at stitching.
:25:51. > :25:54.inspired me to have a go at would take to do the whole thing? I
:25:55. > :25:59.would say to put aside would take to do the whole thing? I
:26:00. > :26:03.hours of stitching. Maybe by the time I am done, we will know more
:26:04. > :26:07.about how the fabric of the nation might be changing.
:26:08. > :26:10.And I've been joined by yes campaigner and convenor
:26:11. > :26:12.of Scotland's Solidarity socialist party, Tommy Sheridan.
:26:13. > :26:24.An economy dependent on oil, the Queen as head of state, membership
:26:25. > :26:30.of the world 's premier nuclear alliance of capitalist nations - is
:26:31. > :26:40.that the socialist Scotland you are fighting for? No, that is the SNP's
:26:41. > :26:44.prospectus and they are entitled to put forward their vision, but it is
:26:45. > :26:51.not mine or that of the majority of Scotland. We will find out in two
:26:52. > :26:55.years. On Thursday we are not voting for a political party, we are voting
:26:56. > :27:01.for our freedom as a country. That is why people are going to vote yes
:27:02. > :27:06.on Thursday. A lot of people are voting for what you call freedom
:27:07. > :27:10.because they think it will be more Scotland. You have already got free
:27:11. > :27:15.prescriptions, no tuition fees, free care for the elderly. You might not
:27:16. > :27:20.in future have that if public spending is overdependent on the
:27:21. > :27:24.price of oil, over which you have no control. We don't have to worry
:27:25. > :27:32.about one single resource, we already have 20% of the fishing
:27:33. > :27:41.stock in Europe. We already have 25% of the wind, wave and solar power
:27:42. > :27:46.generation. We, as an independent country, have huge resources,
:27:47. > :27:51.natural resources but also people resources. We have five first-class
:27:52. > :27:55.universities, food and beverages industry which is the envy of the
:27:56. > :27:59.world. We have the ability to produce the resources on the
:28:00. > :28:03.revenues that won't just maintain the health service and education but
:28:04. > :28:07.it will develop health and education. I don't want to stand
:28:08. > :28:11.still, I want to redistribute wealth. But all of the projections
:28:12. > :28:18.of public spending for an independent Scotland show that to
:28:19. > :28:24.keep spending at the current level you need a strong price of oil and
:28:25. > :28:30.you are dependent on this commodity which goes up and down and sideways.
:28:31. > :28:34.That is a gamble. I have got to laugh because I have been told the
:28:35. > :28:42.most pessimistic is that in 40 years the oil is running out, panic
:28:43. > :28:45.stations! If you were told by the BBC you could only guarantee
:28:46. > :28:51.employment for the next 40 years you would be over the moon. I am talking
:28:52. > :28:57.about in the next five. You need 50% of your revenues to come from oil to
:28:58. > :29:01.continue spending and that is not a guarantee. Of course it is, the
:29:02. > :29:12.minimum survival of the oil is 40 years. Please get your viewers to go
:29:13. > :29:24.onto the Internet and look at the website called oilandgas.com. The
:29:25. > :29:29.West Coast has 100 years of oil to be extracted. It hasn't been done
:29:30. > :29:35.because in 1981 Michael Heseltine said we cannot extract the oil
:29:36. > :29:44.because we have Trident going up and down there. Let's get rid of Trident
:29:45. > :29:50.and extract the oil. You are a trot right, why have you failed to learn
:29:51. > :29:55.his famous dictum, socialism in one country is impossible. Revolutions
:29:56. > :29:59.and change are not just single event. What will happen here on
:30:00. > :30:05.Thursday is a democratic revolution. The people are fed up of being
:30:06. > :30:10.patronised and lied to by this mob in Westminster who have used and
:30:11. > :30:16.abused us for far too long. The smaller people now have a voice.
:30:17. > :30:25.What about socialism in one country? Mr Trotsky warned you
:30:26. > :30:29.against that. The no campaign represents the past. The yes
:30:30. > :30:33.campaign represents the future. That is the truth of the matter. What we
:30:34. > :30:41.are going to do in an independent Scotland is tackle inequality and a
:30:42. > :30:47.scourge of low pay. If we vote no on Thursday, there will be more low pay
:30:48. > :30:50.on Friday, more poverty and food banks on Friday. I'm not going to be
:30:51. > :30:59.lectured by these big banks, you vote less -- yes and we will leave
:31:00. > :31:06.the country! The food banks will be the ones closing. If you got your
:31:07. > :31:11.way, for the type of Scotland you would like to see, state control of
:31:12. > :31:14.business, nationalisation of the Manx, the roads to Carlisle will be
:31:15. > :31:24.clogged with people Yes, hoping to come into Scotland,
:31:25. > :31:31.because in their hearts, the Scottish people know that England
:31:32. > :31:36.want to see the people having the bottle. The working class people in
:31:37. > :31:39.Liverpool, Newcastle, outside of London, they are saying good on the
:31:40. > :31:43.jocks that are taking on big business. When we are independent
:31:44. > :31:47.and investing in social housing, the people of England will say, we can
:31:48. > :31:52.do that as well, and they will rediscover the radical tradition. In
:31:53. > :31:55.wanting to build socialism in one country, it really means you are
:31:56. > :31:59.fighting for the few, rather than the many. You are bailing out of the
:32:00. > :32:07.socialist Battle for Britain. You think it will be easier to make it
:32:08. > :32:11.work. Think globally, act locally and we will build socialism in
:32:12. > :32:15.Scotland but I wanted across the world. I won my brothers and sisters
:32:16. > :32:19.in England and Wales to be encouraged by what we do so they can
:32:20. > :32:23.reject the Westminster consensus as well -- I want. We had the three
:32:24. > :32:28.Stooges coming up to London, three millionaires united on one thing,
:32:29. > :32:31.austerity. Doesn't matter whether Ed Miliband wins the next election, he
:32:32. > :32:36.said he would stick to the story spending cuts. Why vote for Ed
:32:37. > :32:41.Miliband? You wouldn't trust him to run a bath, not a country. Let's see
:32:42. > :32:45.if this is realistic, this great socialist vision. At the last
:32:46. > :32:48.Scottish election, the Socialist party got 8000 votes. The
:32:49. > :32:54.Conservatives got 30 times more votes. Where is the appetite in
:32:55. > :32:59.Scotland for your Marxist ideology question we might not win it. But do
:33:00. > :33:14.you know what, see in two years time. See when we have the Scottish
:33:15. > :33:17.general election. You won't -- you are saying you might win and you
:33:18. > :33:23.went to the Holyrood election and got 8000 Pope -- votes. The SNP won
:33:24. > :33:27.a democratic election and then won the 2011 election and you know why
:33:28. > :33:31.they won? Because they picked up the clothes that the Labour Party has
:33:32. > :33:36.thrown away. They picked up the close of social democracy and
:33:37. > :33:42.protecting the health service was -- service. There are people in the SNP
:33:43. > :33:46.who believe in public ownership and people in the SNP who believe in the
:33:47. > :33:50.NHS should be written into a constitution as never for sale
:33:51. > :33:54.people in the the SNP that think the Royal mail should return to public
:33:55. > :33:57.ownership. That is there in black and white. Do you agree with George
:33:58. > :34:03.Galloway that this is potentially a crisis for Scottish Labour? Scottish
:34:04. > :34:06.Labour is finished. They are absolutely finished. George is right
:34:07. > :34:11.in that. Scottish Labour is finished. The irony of ironies is,
:34:12. > :34:14.Labour in Scotland has more chance of recovery in an independent
:34:15. > :34:19.Scotland that they have in a no vote. Labour in Scotland in an
:34:20. > :34:25.independent country will have to rediscover the traditions of Keir
:34:26. > :34:30.Hardie, the ideas of Jimmy Maxon, because right now, they are to the
:34:31. > :34:35.right of the SNP as a political party. I understand the socialist
:34:36. > :34:42.vision, but it is where the appetite is. And you look at the independence
:34:43. > :34:48.people in Scotland. One of your colleagues, Brian Souter, a man who
:34:49. > :34:52.fought against the appeal -- repeal of homosexual rights in Scotland.
:34:53. > :34:59.Another of your allies would seem to be Rupert Murdoch, the man who
:35:00. > :35:01.engineered your downfall. You say he engineered your downfall, but I'm
:35:02. > :35:08.still here and his newspaper has closed. Whether it Rupert Murdoch,
:35:09. > :35:12.Brian Souter, or any other millionaire supporting independence,
:35:13. > :35:16.I couldn't care less. This boat on Thursday is not about millionaires,
:35:17. > :35:22.it is about the millions. -- this vote. We will not be abused any
:35:23. > :35:26.young -- longer. Would you rather not have their support? I couldn't
:35:27. > :35:31.care about the support. You know who is supporting the union. It is the
:35:32. > :35:38.unions of the big businesses, the BNP, UKIP, they are the ones who
:35:39. > :35:42.support it. You are giving me a stray that has wandered into the
:35:43. > :35:46.campaign and are you seriously going to argue with me that the
:35:47. > :35:50.establishment isn't united to try and save the union? That is what
:35:51. > :35:54.they are trying to be. The BBC, you have been a disgrace in your
:35:55. > :35:59.coverage of the campaign. Not you personally. You don't have editorial
:36:00. > :36:04.control. The BBC coverage, generally, has been a disgrace and
:36:05. > :36:08.the people. Oil and gas, go and look at that, why is that not feature.
:36:09. > :36:12.Why is the idea of 100 years of oil not featured in the campaign.
:36:13. > :36:17.Because the BBC does not want to see it. Are you getting in your excuses
:36:18. > :36:22.if you lose? You better be kidding. Is this the face of somebody looking
:36:23. > :36:29.to lose. We are going to win, 60/40. Absolutely. There is a momentum that
:36:30. > :36:32.you guys are not seeing on the working-class housing estates.
:36:33. > :36:38.Working class people are fed up being taken for granted fed up with
:36:39. > :36:45.the lives of people dragging us into tax cuts, bedroom tax for the poor.
:36:46. > :36:49.They will have power on Thursday, and they will use it and vote for
:36:50. > :36:54.freedom. Are you happy with the way the BBC has treated you today? So
:36:55. > :36:58.far, yes. I have still not been offered a Coffey, but that might
:36:59. > :37:00.happen. That is an obvious example of our bias. Tommy, we will speak to
:37:01. > :37:17.you later with George Galloway. Welcome to the
:37:18. > :37:20.Sunday Politics Wales. Scotland's independence referendum
:37:21. > :37:24.is going down to the wire, and Welsh politicians want
:37:25. > :37:27.a piece of the action. Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood has
:37:28. > :37:29.been there to campaign for a yes vote.
:37:30. > :37:33.Later I'll be asking her why. We'll be at the Scottish Parliament
:37:34. > :37:36.to hear from James Williams, But we start with the First Minister
:37:37. > :37:41.Carwyn Jones, also recently returned For Welsh politicians, it seems
:37:42. > :37:50.all roads lead to Scotland. The leader of Plaid Cymru was up
:37:51. > :37:53.there campaigning for a yes vote The next day,
:37:54. > :37:57.it was the First Minister's turn, On Thursday, Shadow Welsh Secretary
:37:58. > :38:04.Alun Smith was among Labour MPs who Back in Cardiff, Welsh politicians
:38:05. > :38:14.and political enthusiasts had a conference to try to work out
:38:15. > :38:17.what it all means for Wales. The truth is,
:38:18. > :38:22.nobody knows for certain. The no campaign has promised further
:38:23. > :38:26.devolution to Scotland and some hope it will mean more devolution is sent
:38:27. > :38:31.Cardiff's way also. The support for independence in
:38:32. > :38:34.Wales is at its lowest ever, despite what nationalist and separatist
:38:35. > :38:38.forces would say in Wales. And I'm very pleased by that
:38:39. > :38:41.and heartened by that. Clearly there is a demand
:38:42. > :38:44.for more power, that has been shown We saw the recent Wales Bill going
:38:45. > :38:51.through with more powers for tax and borrowing for Wales
:38:52. > :38:54.and I think that is right. If Scotland votes yes,
:38:55. > :39:00.there are hopes or fears from both sides of the debate that it will
:39:01. > :39:04.fuel demand for Welsh independence. Belated talk
:39:05. > :39:07.of more devolution is a sign that the no campaign is panicking,
:39:08. > :39:12.according to nationalists. These sort
:39:13. > :39:14.of shallow stunts that Westminster It is far bigger than that and I'm
:39:15. > :39:21.confident it is going to be There's definitely a requirement
:39:22. > :39:24.for greater powers for Wales and Scotland in whatever
:39:25. > :39:27.the result of the referendum. If it is a yes vote, they would be
:39:28. > :39:31.pressing to make sure that Wales has greater autonomy, otherwise we'll be
:39:32. > :39:33.in an English dominated parliament with all of the main policy leaders
:39:34. > :39:38.still under Westminster control. Everyone
:39:39. > :39:40.in Welsh politics seems to agree that the result in Scotland will
:39:41. > :39:45.change things for Wales, but how? I have come to the First Minister's
:39:46. > :39:49.constituency in Bridgend to ask him other than a no vote what is he
:39:50. > :39:54.hoping the referendum will deliver? But also, there is a desperate need
:39:55. > :40:02.to ensure that all of the different leaders in the UK, the family of
:40:03. > :40:05.nations, as the Prime Minister has called us, we'll sit down together
:40:06. > :40:08.and say, this is how we want the UK to work and look like
:40:09. > :40:10.in the 21st century And not for lack of you trying,
:40:11. > :40:15.you have been talking about some kind of constitutional
:40:16. > :40:17.convention for two years. Well, yes, I can see
:40:18. > :40:23.my own words being repeated back to At the time, the feeling was that
:40:24. > :40:29.the referendum in Scotland had to be gotten out of the way first
:40:30. > :40:32.before the process moves forward. That is a fair point,
:40:33. > :40:34.but it is important this is started Do you mean more powers
:40:35. > :40:40.for the Assembly and which powers? Well, I would look for part one
:40:41. > :40:45.of the Silk Commission report and part two as well, that is
:40:46. > :40:50.important, we need to work out what the constitutional make-up of the
:40:51. > :40:54.UK should look like in the years to come, not just about looking
:40:55. > :40:57.at Wales separately or Scotland separately or Northern Ireland
:40:58. > :41:00.separately, it is about looking at Do you think that your message
:41:01. > :41:05.has been quite confused? You have said on Twitter,
:41:06. > :41:09.that whatever Scotland gets, Wales should have and you had to
:41:10. > :41:12.issue more tweets to say not welfare What is on offer should
:41:13. > :41:17.be offered to Wales. It is a matter to judge
:41:18. > :41:19.what is best for Wales. There's no reason why Wales should
:41:20. > :41:22.be treated separately to Scotland, especially when it comes to
:41:23. > :41:25.the structure of devolution. That should be the view
:41:26. > :41:28.across the UK. It is not clear what
:41:29. > :41:31.you're asking for. Part two
:41:32. > :41:35.of the Silk Commission to be taken forward, a constitutional convention
:41:36. > :41:38.so we can all sit down and look That is what I would
:41:39. > :41:45.like to see taken forward. And when would you like the Silk 2
:41:46. > :41:48.powers, we talk about power over I would like all the political
:41:49. > :41:54.parties to put forward in the general election manifesto, what
:41:55. > :41:56.they would like to do with regards When Gordon Brown is offering more
:41:57. > :42:01.powers for the Scottish parliament, setting out a timetable,
:42:02. > :42:03.were you consulted on any of that? It was something that came as news
:42:04. > :42:11.to us, but of course, we have our own timetable with the Wales Bill
:42:12. > :42:14.that is in parliament at the moment. And we hope to see another timetable
:42:15. > :42:17.for the implementation of the powers Would you have hoped that
:42:18. > :42:23.when your own party is offering power to Scotland,
:42:24. > :42:26.that Wales will be included in this and we will devolve X, Y
:42:27. > :42:30.and Z powers to Wales at that time? There is no doubt that we
:42:31. > :42:33.have to look at Wales also. When the referendum is over,
:42:34. > :42:40.we have to see what powers should reside where, and that hasn't been
:42:41. > :42:44.done until now. Alex Salmond says you're not
:42:45. > :42:46.consulted on these decisions, you're trying to show that devolution
:42:47. > :42:51.works, and he says that Downing It is fair to say that
:42:52. > :42:58.when I put forward the idea of the Constitutional Convention,
:42:59. > :42:59.it wasn't their priority. It is a shame that it
:43:00. > :43:03.wasn't two years ago. But there we are,
:43:04. > :43:06.this is where we are now, we have to hope for a no vote in Scotland, in
:43:07. > :43:11.my view, Thursday and then see the implementation, as far as Wales is
:43:12. > :43:13.concerned, of Silk, and then that constitutional process to have
:43:14. > :43:18.a holistic approach to devolution He uses the example of the M4,
:43:19. > :43:23.saying you had to bargain for that, saying
:43:24. > :43:26.if he didn't get the borrowing powers to build an M4, then you
:43:27. > :43:29.wouldn't campaign for a no vote. I did say to the Prime Minister, it
:43:30. > :43:35.would be very difficult for me to go to Scotland with credibility if they
:43:36. > :43:38.didn't implement part one of Silk. How can I go to Scotland
:43:39. > :43:45.and argue for a no vote when the first question I will be asked is,
:43:46. > :43:49.hang on a second, this is sitting with Whitehall at the moment,
:43:50. > :43:51.they have done nothing about it. They did do something about it
:43:52. > :43:55.and it made it easier for me to be forward what I believed in, which is
:43:56. > :43:58.that Scotland should vote no. If you try to show that devolution
:43:59. > :44:02.works, why is it that you and the UK government cannot decide who will
:44:03. > :44:07.pay for rail electrification? It is not a smooth,
:44:08. > :44:10.functioning system. We will agree on that soon,
:44:11. > :44:14.but it does show that there are deficiencies
:44:15. > :44:16.in the Welsh devolution settlement. We know
:44:17. > :44:19.the problems there have been. The fact we have had two government
:44:20. > :44:22.bills referred to the Supreme Court We need to sort out
:44:23. > :44:26.the settlement in Wales but we need to do that in the
:44:27. > :44:30.context of deciding who does what at UK, Scotland, Northern Ireland and
:44:31. > :44:33.Wales level and of course, to look And meanwhile,
:44:34. > :44:38.Scottish Labour is telling Scotland vote no and we will keep the Barnett
:44:39. > :44:42.formula, a formula that you say short-changes Wales, you're not
:44:43. > :44:45.singing from the same hymn sheet. I do want Wales to get the money it
:44:46. > :44:49.is entitled to, how that is done doesn't concern me, but Scotland is
:44:50. > :44:52.bound to lose its Barnett To me,
:44:53. > :44:59.that is a good way to guarantee the end of Scotland's funding under
:45:00. > :45:02.the Barnett formula by having a yes vote, but what I'm interested in is
:45:03. > :45:05.seeing Wales get its fair share. How that is done,
:45:06. > :45:08.is less of an issue. Let me just ask you
:45:09. > :45:10.about the reshuffle. Was Scotland in the post-referendum
:45:11. > :45:15.world on your mind when you were Is this
:45:16. > :45:19.the cabinet that will negotiate This is the cabinet that will
:45:20. > :45:23.lead us into the election. I decided a long time ago that this
:45:24. > :45:27.would be the right time to have what would be the final reshuffle
:45:28. > :45:30.of this government up to 2016. And I have a very strong team
:45:31. > :45:37.in place. Not everyone agrees with
:45:38. > :45:39.the First Minister. Some think Scottish independence
:45:40. > :45:41.would be good for Wales, so much so that they've been there
:45:42. > :45:44.to campaign for it. One of them is the Plaid Cymru
:45:45. > :45:58.leader Leanne Wood who joins us now. Welcome to the programme. Why had he
:45:59. > :46:04.been campaigning for a yes vote in Scotland? I think if there is a yes
:46:05. > :46:09.vote, it opens up politics throughout the other countries that
:46:10. > :46:16.make up these islands. People in Scotland are not daft. They
:46:17. > :46:18.understand the elite establishment in Westminster are offering nothing
:46:19. > :46:24.but more austerity. And they tell people in Scotland that there is no
:46:25. > :46:27.alternative to that. If Scotland leaves the UK, that elite
:46:28. > :46:34.establishment in Westminster will be even more dominated by England. that
:46:35. > :46:39.means that Wales needs to push for more powers to get resilience to any
:46:40. > :46:44.detrimental policies meted out to us in Wales. It is in our interest to
:46:45. > :46:48.build up the infrastructure, build up the institutions, so that we can
:46:49. > :46:52.get to the point we can have the same national conversation that
:46:53. > :46:56.people are having in Scotland. The conversation they are having in
:46:57. > :47:01.Scotland is tantamount to a revolution in democracy. Everyone is
:47:02. > :47:33.engaged. There appears to be very little apathy. 97% of the population
:47:34. > :47:36.are to vote and it is expected to have between 80% and 90% turnout in
:47:37. > :47:39.the referendum. If we could have that level of debate in Wales, that
:47:40. > :47:41.would be a similar kind of revolution and democracy. We may
:47:42. > :47:43.build up infrastructure and have debate, but in the short-term,
:47:44. > :47:46.things would be even more tilted towards the things you want to get
:47:47. > :47:48.away from. At the moment, we have a very timid government that is unable
:47:49. > :47:50.to influence matters and key figures in Westminster on this debate. You
:47:51. > :47:56.speak about the Welsh Government. Yes. We have to come together as a
:47:57. > :48:04.nation and demand that we are notice of. We have been a spectator nation
:48:05. > :48:07.for too long and we need to see not a First Minister like we just saw in
:48:08. > :48:10.the interview there, who is timid and unable to stand up for the
:48:11. > :48:14.interests of Wales, against the elitist establishment in
:48:15. > :48:18.Westminster, we need a government that can take these people on and
:48:19. > :48:26.make sure that Wales's voice is heard and that is the government
:48:27. > :48:29.Plaid Cymru will offer in 2016. You would hope that this would inspire
:48:30. > :48:35.Welsh people to go for independence, what do you think about that
:48:36. > :48:41.considering that Welsh independence is not popular according to the
:48:42. > :48:44.opinion polls. If there is independence in Scotland, it opens
:48:45. > :48:48.up the possibilities in Wales, but we are on different journeys. I
:48:49. > :48:51.cannot say that we would move to the same situation. The SNP had to get a
:48:52. > :48:56.majority government before they had the right to put the question to the
:48:57. > :49:03.people in Scotland and they won that right, and that is what I would seek
:49:04. > :49:06.to do also. If people in Wales want to see Wales independent of the
:49:07. > :49:11.country and to see a plan getting us to that point, the only way is to
:49:12. > :49:16.give Plaid Cymru a mandate to become the government of Wales after 2016.
:49:17. > :49:24.Let's compare with Scotland, both yourself and Alex Salmond have used
:49:25. > :49:28.the slogan forward, the SNP has moved forward, but Plaid Cymru has
:49:29. > :49:36.gone back since 1999 when you hit the high water mark, why is that? We
:49:37. > :49:38.have had a different emphasis as two different parties in two different
:49:39. > :49:41.countries. Our emphasis is on building up the institution. We went
:49:42. > :49:49.into coalition government in order to deliver a referendum on a
:49:50. > :49:59.lawmaking Parliament. I'd macro you have not prospered from a to? -- you
:50:00. > :50:09.have not prospered from it with votes. We are not focused on the
:50:10. > :50:12.system that we need to solve the problem is that Wales has. Their
:50:13. > :50:18.economic problems and we have a first Minister and government in
:50:19. > :50:22.Wales that are turning down the opportunity to take control over
:50:23. > :50:25.those leaders that can create jobs. That doesn't explain why it
:50:26. > :50:30.happened, why has Plaid Cymru not moved forward in the way the SNP
:50:31. > :50:35.has? Because we have different priorities. The SNP has prioritised
:50:36. > :50:40.being the major party in government and they did not go to try and
:50:41. > :50:45.chronicle changes in their settlement in the same way that we
:50:46. > :50:50.in Wales. Our settlement was far weaker when devolution was
:50:51. > :50:53.established. There was already a criminal justice system and an
:50:54. > :50:58.education system in Scotland, we had to start from scratch in Wales. They
:50:59. > :51:06.are ahead of the curve in Scotland, but I am convinced we are on the
:51:07. > :51:09.same journey, just at different stages of that journey. Thank you.
:51:10. > :51:11.Let's go to Scotland and outside the Scottish Parliament
:51:12. > :51:16.in Edinburgh is our referendum reporter, James Williams.
:51:17. > :51:22.We were in Scotland at the start of the summer, it was gripped by
:51:23. > :51:27.referendum fever, what is it like now? This is the most remarkable
:51:28. > :51:30.political event I have covered in my career and speaking with seasoned
:51:31. > :51:34.political hacks appear that have covered elections and the referendum
:51:35. > :51:40.for a decade, they have never experienced anything like this. The
:51:41. > :51:43.first Minister of Scotland and the former Chancellor Alistair Darling
:51:44. > :51:46.were saying this morning that this referendum really has energised
:51:47. > :51:51.political debate in Scotland like never before. It is hard to argue
:51:52. > :51:54.with this, because on the street, everyone has an opinion about this
:51:55. > :52:02.referendum, either way of the debate. It is borne out by the
:52:03. > :52:07.figures. 97% of people aged -- eligible to vote have registered
:52:08. > :52:14.here. The turnout could be over 80%, even as high as 90%, which is
:52:15. > :52:18.remarkable, when you consider in the 2011 Scottish general election which
:52:19. > :52:23.gave the SNP its majority and a mandate to hold this referendum on
:52:24. > :52:27.the first place, only 50% of people voted in that election, so it gives
:52:28. > :52:31.you some context. One anecdote regarding the last week, which
:52:32. > :52:39.underlines the precedent it levels of engagement, I was working with a
:52:40. > :52:42.freelance cameraman who has never voted in Scottish elections in his
:52:43. > :52:46.life. -- unprecedented levels. He was offered a job with another
:52:47. > :52:53.broadcaster to cover the Celtic, Salzburg Europa League match on
:52:54. > :52:59.Thursday, he refused that job, saying he cannot miss the referendum
:53:00. > :53:05.vote, it is too important. Politics is more important than football,
:53:06. > :53:10.that is something. The polls are still on a knife edge. Yes,
:53:11. > :53:16.incredibly tight, and it changed gear last Sunday when the poll was
:53:17. > :53:18.published in the Sunday Times suggesting that the yes campaign had
:53:19. > :53:22.a very, very slight lead for the first time. There have been some
:53:23. > :53:27.polls since then that showed that the no campaign is ahead by a small
:53:28. > :53:38.margin, and three post today suggest that no is ahead and one suggesting
:53:39. > :53:43.that yes as -- is ahead. If we look at the last six opinion polls, it
:53:44. > :53:48.suggests that 51% of people will support no and 49% will say yes.
:53:49. > :53:56.Things are really balanced on a knife edge. Meanwhile, everyone in
:53:57. > :54:00.Wales is trying to figure out what it means for Wales, you asked
:54:01. > :54:05.politicians about that. Yes, it is the big question, it is difficult to
:54:06. > :54:09.answer. Especially with a yes vote. A 300-year-old political union comes
:54:10. > :54:20.to an end and all bets are off. If there is a Nova Road, more powers
:54:21. > :54:22.have been promised to the Scottish Parliament. -- a no vote. It becomes
:54:23. > :54:26.even stronger and there is an unbalanced union which becomes even
:54:27. > :54:31.more evident. Has been lots of Welsh input into what that means for Wales
:54:32. > :54:36.and lots of Welsh politician to have visited this campaign which has
:54:37. > :54:40.shown the first Mr Carwyn Jones visiting Edinburgh earlier this
:54:41. > :54:51.week, where he was campaigning for a no vote. -- it has shown the First
:54:52. > :54:54.Minister Carwyn Jones. I spoke with the Scottish First Minister Alex
:54:55. > :55:00.Salmond earlier this week in Dundee and he had a message for Wales and
:55:01. > :55:03.we will also hear from a that, the Shadow Welsh Secretary campaigning
:55:04. > :55:09.for a vote. -- no vote. All I would say to the people of
:55:10. > :55:12.Wales, is the example of Scotland, regardless of how you think Scotland
:55:13. > :55:15.should vote, as people in Scotland decide to take power into our own
:55:16. > :55:18.hands, we have got the Westminster parties scrambling, scrambling
:55:19. > :55:20.in the panic to offer us anything. Isn't that a lesson
:55:21. > :55:23.for the people of Wales And rather than Carwyn asking a Tory
:55:24. > :55:26.government to give him a few crumbs from the table, why
:55:27. > :55:30.don't the people of Wales mobilise It is all to play for, this will be
:55:31. > :55:35.a very close call, and it is a Do I think it is too
:55:36. > :55:38.little too late? It is a campaign and campaigns
:55:39. > :55:42.always build towards the end. When I was up here in the summer,
:55:43. > :55:45.lots of Welsh Labour MPs have been here in the summer before, we will
:55:46. > :55:49.all be here in the next week, there is a huge Wales contingent
:55:50. > :55:52.here today, it is important to keep fighting until the last minute,
:55:53. > :55:55.because we have got to win this for the working people of Scotland
:55:56. > :56:08.and the working people After two years of campaigning, 4.2
:56:09. > :56:13.million people in Scotland will have their say on Thursday and it could
:56:14. > :56:18.come down to 500,000 people that have yet to decide. One Scottish
:56:19. > :56:20.newspaper this morning has said, Scotland, it is time. Thank you.
:56:21. > :56:24.There will be more from the yes and no camps in Wales on BBC One
:56:25. > :56:28.Bethan Rhys Roberts will be chairing a live debate from the Assembly
:56:29. > :56:30.which will be assessing what impact the vote, either way,
:56:31. > :56:36.tomorrow evening followed by a phone-in on Radio Wales
:56:37. > :56:39.Joining me is Professor Laura McAllister
:56:40. > :56:51.Welcome to the programme, we were both at a conference in Cardiff is
:56:52. > :56:57.trying to figure out what this means for Wales earlier in the week, any
:56:58. > :57:00.conclusions? Difficult to find a conclusion in the last week, but
:57:01. > :57:05.what was very apparent in the conference and in the coverage, is
:57:06. > :57:10.that this would be big business for Wales after Thursday. If there is a
:57:11. > :57:14.yes vote, it will really shock some people in Wales to see how the union
:57:15. > :57:17.that we have with England and Northern Ireland will be
:57:18. > :57:21.unbalanced. And I think that will create some shock waves through the
:57:22. > :57:25.political classes in Wales and probably more importantly if there
:57:26. > :57:29.is a no vote, it gives wealth and opportunity, or the Welsh leaders in
:57:30. > :57:33.opportunity to influence the recasting of UK politics. The key
:57:34. > :57:39.thing will be the consensus and the degree of voice that Wales hasn't
:57:40. > :57:43.this discussion. We heard Carwyn Jones talking about a constitutional
:57:44. > :57:49.convention, it is late that people are picking up on that idea, there
:57:50. > :57:54.are proposals on the table from the silk commission to give the Assembly
:57:55. > :58:00.more power, does that become more or less likely if there is a no vote in
:58:01. > :58:05.the Scottish Parliament? Silk is part of the jigsaw, purely, if there
:58:06. > :58:13.is a no vote, because we're talking about a real recasting a vigorous
:58:14. > :58:15.politics which is probably the most significant change, regionalism,
:58:16. > :58:22.Devo Maxim Scotland, and possibly asking Northern Ireland if they want
:58:23. > :58:26.to be included in those changes. -- Devo Max in Scotland. As we know,
:58:27. > :58:34.Wales has a small boys and a quiet voice at the moment, so much will
:58:35. > :58:44.depend on if there can be anything built from this. -- Wales has a
:58:45. > :58:55.small boys. This has grabbed attention across the UK. Collected
:58:56. > :59:00.reawakening, shock waves going through the British establishment.
:59:01. > :59:07.The question is, will this have permanent change or will it be a
:59:08. > :59:09.temporary phenomenon? If there is a no vote, Westminster, and the
:59:10. > :59:14.political journalist, their attention will move on to
:59:15. > :59:18.by-elections, UKIP, Boris Johnson and the moment will be lost for
:59:19. > :59:22.people that want a more powerful assembly. That is up to us to a
:59:23. > :59:30.sticky pressurising, because we have a media that is incredibly ignorant
:59:31. > :59:34.about Scotland and Wales. -- that is up to us to keep pressurising. We
:59:35. > :59:40.have known from long-time, but whether this referendum shakes up
:59:41. > :59:43.the establishment and makes them recognise that it is in their
:59:44. > :59:48.interest to pay more attention is another question. What you predict?
:59:49. > :59:53.It would be foolish to predict at this point, it might not be as
:59:54. > :59:58.close, because we do not know if it goes one way or another. Thank you.
:59:59. > :00:00.Don't forget you can follow all the latest developments on twitter,
:00:01. > :00:02.the address is on the screen now @walespolitics -
:00:03. > :00:05.and on Thursday night on our online services you can get
:00:06. > :00:08.a Welsh perspective on the Scottish result in English and Welsh.
:00:09. > :00:10.For now though, that's all from me, it's time to go back to Andrew
:00:11. > :00:15.The last time a sewer was built in London was 150 years ago, otherwise
:00:16. > :00:21.we would have a dirty River Thames. Andrew, back to you.
:00:22. > :00:26.Can the No campaign still pull it off?
:00:27. > :00:29.And even if they do is the whole of the UK now on the brink
:00:30. > :00:46.I'm joined now by John McTernan, former adviser to Gordon Brown
:00:47. > :00:49.and Tony Blair, Alex Bell, former Head of Policy for the SNP
:00:50. > :00:52.and Lindsay McIntosh, the Times Scottish Political Editor.
:00:53. > :00:58.And I'm delighted that Tommy and George have stayed too.
:00:59. > :01:06.No fighting has broken out either. Where
:01:07. > :01:06.No fighting has broken out either. have three full days to go
:01:07. > :01:09.No fighting has broken out either. polling day. What is the state of
:01:10. > :01:17.play? I think the poll of polls is accurate. 49 and 51%. What is vital
:01:18. > :01:22.is to bring the undecided voters in, and they properly have about
:01:23. > :01:25.500,000. I think there are a lot of undecided people. I think they know
:01:26. > :01:31.which way they are leaning, but they haven't jumped. The hope of the no
:01:32. > :01:36.campaign is that they will go for the status quo on Thursday. How do
:01:37. > :01:40.you assess the state of the campaign now? The crucial thing is the big
:01:41. > :01:49.swing. The swing has come towards yes, so will the momentum carry it
:01:50. > :01:53.over the line? I will think it does, because it is an antiestablishment
:01:54. > :01:58.swell, and its people responding to standard Western as the politicians
:01:59. > :02:03.and saying that they want a new way -- Westminster politicians. I think
:02:04. > :02:07.that yes will sneak it. A referendum can be more important than a general
:02:08. > :02:12.election, and the Yes campaign have had the momentum. This was the week
:02:13. > :02:16.the momentum stopped. We started the week looking as though yes were
:02:17. > :02:19.going into the lead and then it stopped and most of the recent polls
:02:20. > :02:25.show a distinct lead for the no campaign. A distinct lead? It is one
:02:26. > :02:31.or two points. It is six in one poll, two in another, aiding
:02:32. > :02:34.another. The poll of polls is a good way of measuring, and is it
:02:35. > :02:39.statistically Nick -- nip and tuck? It is the week the momentum stopped.
:02:40. > :02:42.About a fifth of the electorate. That will be a quarter of the
:02:43. > :02:46.turnout have voted already, by postal vote, and they are running
:02:47. > :02:52.very strongly towards no, so there is a whole bank of votes there. The
:02:53. > :02:55.postal votes are skewed to the over 60s, and that is the demographic
:02:56. > :03:01.that the Yes campaign have had the biggest trouble with. Absolutely,
:03:02. > :03:05.the Yes campaign faced a challenge amongst the 16 and 18-year-olds and
:03:06. > :03:11.always based challenge with the older voters. Trust me, I was the
:03:12. > :03:15.decision the day the civil servants made it possible for the 16 to
:03:16. > :03:19.18-year-olds to vote, and we said there was a victory for the no
:03:20. > :03:25.campaign in that alone. The young tend to be conservative by nature. I
:03:26. > :03:33.think again that to say that the momentum has stopped when you had a
:03:34. > :03:37.20 point lead, this is a referendum whether people will speak and they
:03:38. > :03:43.will be heard. Except for the one poll which needs a huge health
:03:44. > :03:45.warning because of the size of the sample, the momentum is
:03:46. > :03:50.unquestionably all the way through August is going in the direction of
:03:51. > :03:56.yes. It hasn't quite continue to get to the 55/45 four yes that Alex
:03:57. > :04:00.Salmond thinks will be the result. I would agree with John. This was the
:04:01. > :04:07.momentum stalled. We saw the three leaders coming up, and that kept
:04:08. > :04:10.Alex Salmond off the front pages on the television and we had a raft of
:04:11. > :04:13.economic warnings which, although they were dismissed as
:04:14. > :04:18.scaremongering, they will have had a lot of traction with voters. What
:04:19. > :04:23.does the no campaign have to do in the final three days? It has to
:04:24. > :04:28.focus on the undecided, relentlessly. It has to do stick to
:04:29. > :04:31.the question of risk and keep pushing back on Alex Salmond to say
:04:32. > :04:36.it doesn't matter if the banks leave, it will all be all right on
:04:37. > :04:39.the night. The huge question amongst the undecided voters is about the
:04:40. > :04:44.economy. It is about jobs and currency, about business. That risk
:04:45. > :04:47.is what will crystallise in the ballot box on Thursday and that has
:04:48. > :04:52.to be the focus. What does the Yes campaign have to do? It has to drive
:04:53. > :04:56.home that the swing to the Yes campaign is motivated by people who
:04:57. > :04:59.want a different politics. They have decided amongst themselves that they
:05:00. > :05:05.want to change Scotland. The unfortunate thing is, even though
:05:06. > :05:08.the no campaign has had the chance to put up after proposals, they have
:05:09. > :05:11.failed. The Scottish people want their powers were a purpose and they
:05:12. > :05:15.say that only the Yes campaign can deliver that. There will be two days
:05:16. > :05:19.of relentless campaigning from today, Monday and Tuesday, then the
:05:20. > :05:25.media, the newspapers, including your own, will come out with the
:05:26. > :05:29.final poll, the ones that will be the closest to the day that the
:05:30. > :05:33.Scots actually go and vote. I think we will see more polling this week,
:05:34. > :05:36.but what is interesting is the extent to which the pollsters are
:05:37. > :05:39.picking up what is going on in the street. We know we have a huge
:05:40. > :05:45.number of voters who have never voted before and are not engage with
:05:46. > :05:48.politics, so what will they do? The third candidate in the election, if
:05:49. > :05:51.I can would in this way, are the polls. They might have a lot of
:05:52. > :05:56.questions to answer on Friday morning. We were talking earlier
:05:57. > :06:00.with George and Tommy about the Labour Party's consequences in all
:06:01. > :06:04.of this. Gordon Brown, of course, has had a bit of a second coming as
:06:05. > :06:07.a result of this referendum. I just want to play a clip of Gordon Brown
:06:08. > :06:18.during the campaign and get a reaction. And I say this to Alex
:06:19. > :06:21.Salmond himself. Up until today I am outside front line politics. If he
:06:22. > :06:26.continues to peddle this deception, that the Scottish Parliament under
:06:27. > :06:29.his leadership, and he cannot do anything to improve the health
:06:30. > :06:36.service until he has a separate state, then I will want to join Joe
:06:37. > :06:40.Hanlon want in and securing the return of a Labour government as
:06:41. > :06:47.quickly as possible -- Johann Lamont. That was seen by some people
:06:48. > :06:51.as Gordon Brown implying he might stand for the Scottish Parliament.
:06:52. > :06:57.Whether it is yes or no, is Gordon Brown the saviour of Scottish
:06:58. > :07:00.Labour? I did a double black the other night -- double act with him
:07:01. > :07:04.the other night, and I must say he was a big beast all over again. He
:07:05. > :07:10.crossed the stage Meli dealt with the audience brilliantly. He has a
:07:11. > :07:15.certain presence, Gordon Brown, but he would really have to reinvent
:07:16. > :07:20.himself quite considerably. He is capable of doing, but the man who
:07:21. > :07:24.was the biographer of Jimmy Maxton, who pulled together the original red
:07:25. > :07:29.paper on Scotland, he would have to be that Gordon Brown rather than the
:07:30. > :07:32.Gordon Brown of some more melancholy events later. Tommy, you have both
:07:33. > :07:36.been critical of the state of the Scottish Labour Party. Rather than
:07:37. > :07:39.looking to Gordon Brown, which might be an interim solution, doesn't
:07:40. > :07:44.Scottish Labour have to find a new generation of people to reignite it?
:07:45. > :07:50.What George and I are agreed on, and you have to remember this question
:07:51. > :07:52.of independence see us disagreeing passionately, and in most other
:07:53. > :07:56.things we find ourselves in agreement, one thing is clear,
:07:57. > :08:02.Scottish Labour is finished. They have lost the heart and soul of
:08:03. > :08:05.Scotland. The fact that we are discussing with four days to go an
:08:06. > :08:10.independence referendum that is neck and neck, Labour have failed
:08:11. > :08:13.miserably, absolutely miserably, because they have given up
:08:14. > :08:18.everything they stood for. The SNP has picked it up. They have just
:08:19. > :08:22.taken on the bank -- mantle of a left of centre party and are picking
:08:23. > :08:26.up support. Gordon and the rest, in my opinion, they represent the past.
:08:27. > :08:29.The yes vote on the Yes campaign represents the future. What do you
:08:30. > :08:36.say to that? There is nothing socialist about an SNP that wants to
:08:37. > :08:39.cut business tax by 3% in the pan. There is nothing socialist about an
:08:40. > :08:44.SNP destroying further education so they can give middle-class people
:08:45. > :08:48.free education. The Labour Party is alive and kicking. You can see if it
:08:49. > :08:55.is Gordon Brown, or Jim Murphy with the 100 days tour. But I hesitate to
:08:56. > :08:58.use this word, but they are kind of privatised from the Scottish Labour
:08:59. > :09:03.Party. They have rode their own fallow. Jim Murphy was on the stump
:09:04. > :09:08.because official Scottish Labour did not want him leading their campaign.
:09:09. > :09:13.Gordon Brown was, I think, kept off the stage until it became so
:09:14. > :09:18.Gordon Brown was, I think, kept off back. I agree with John, the SNP
:09:19. > :09:23.talks left but acts right. That is before they get state powers. That
:09:24. > :09:27.is what is exciting about the referendum, it's not about the SNP,
:09:28. > :09:30.it's about the people deciding. What we have heard so far in the
:09:31. > :09:34.referendum campaign is that there is a desperate yearning in the
:09:35. > :09:38.electorate for real politics, purposeful politics and for the
:09:39. > :09:41.people to be represented. It is probably to the eternal shame of
:09:42. > :09:45.labour that they gave up that role and other people are now taking it
:09:46. > :09:49.upon themselves. How would you assess the state of the Labour
:09:50. > :09:53.Party? The problem is that it was demolished by the SNP in 2011 and
:09:54. > :09:56.what they should have done since then and in other circumstances is
:09:57. > :09:58.take a real look within themselves and brought forward new talent and
:09:59. > :10:02.policies and and brought forward new talent and
:10:03. > :10:03.stood for. They've been unable to do that because they are locked in a
:10:04. > :10:10.constitutional row. It is the plan that because they are locked in a
:10:11. > :10:12.of the Nationalists to fight the first Scottish general election as
:10:13. > :10:16.an independent nation as a nationalist party with its own
:10:17. > :10:22.programme. You don't all go your own way. Why don't
:10:23. > :10:27.more on your main reason to be, so why not go, left,
:10:28. > :10:29.more on your main reason to be, so question you are presuming you don't
:10:30. > :10:30.go the one-way. I do not see the function of the SNP after
:10:31. > :10:32.go the one-way. I do not see the vote. I think it is clear that there
:10:33. > :10:37.is an SNP under Nicola vote. I think it is clear that there
:10:38. > :10:39.SNP which attracts votes from the left and that is the one for me.
:10:40. > :10:44.Whether that is something else, I don't know. I
:10:45. > :10:48.think the assumption that we are going into a mirror of old politics
:10:49. > :10:57.in a new world is just fundamentally flawed. That is interesting. Let's
:10:58. > :11:00.just bring in the English dimensional. In many ways, England
:11:01. > :11:05.has not spoken in this referendum campaign. Whether it is yes or no,
:11:06. > :11:08.it will, and to give you a flavour of what some in England might be
:11:09. > :11:11.thinking was saying, here is a clip from John Redwood. We are fed up
:11:12. > :11:17.with this lopsided devolution, from John Redwood. We are fed up
:11:18. > :11:17.unfair devolution. Scotland gets first-class Devolution, Wales gets
:11:18. > :11:21.second-class devolution first-class Devolution, Wales gets
:11:22. > :11:24.gets nothing. If Wales wants the same as us, they should have it, and
:11:25. > :11:28.then there would be commonality so we could discuss and decide in our
:11:29. > :11:36.in Parliament, all those things that in Parliament, all those things that
:11:37. > :11:39.are devolved. George, it was clear that if Scotland voted yes for
:11:40. > :11:42.independence it has huge implications for England than the
:11:43. > :11:45.UK, but it's also clear particularly after Gordon Brown's intervention,
:11:46. > :11:51.even if it is no, it has huge after Gordon Brown's intervention,
:11:52. > :11:53.agreeing with John Redwood that after Gordon Brown's intervention,
:11:54. > :11:59.there should be an English boys. It would be a step too far for me to
:12:00. > :12:03.agree with him -- English voice. I appreciate I might have gone out on
:12:04. > :12:09.a limb. He is the voice of Mars, the Balkan from Mars. My own
:12:10. > :12:14.constituents in Bradford are asking, what about us? All these things
:12:15. > :12:18.being done, all the extra mile is being travel to Scotland, what about
:12:19. > :12:23.us? Labour would be well advised to adjust quickly on this so that the
:12:24. > :12:30.John Redwood types do not steal the show. England has yes to use -- yet
:12:31. > :12:33.to speak. It's interesting when you hear a Labour backbencher in
:12:34. > :12:39.Scotland talk about a command paper. He is not in government. Gordon
:12:40. > :12:42.Brown is going round Scotland promising things and he has
:12:43. > :12:47.absolutely no chance of delivering them. The MPs in England will say,
:12:48. > :12:51.hey, what are you talking about? We have never been discussed with that?
:12:52. > :12:56.We have not agreed with that. The only way people in Scotland will get
:12:57. > :13:01.the powers they deserve is by voting yes. Crystal ball time, Tommy, you
:13:02. > :13:06.think it is 60/40. I will stick with it, because we have an unprecedented
:13:07. > :13:09.election. 97% of Scotland is registered to vote. The working
:13:10. > :13:18.class will vote in numbers never voted before. George? 55/45 for our
:13:19. > :13:21.side. And if there is a rogue poll, the tek Levesley polled --
:13:22. > :13:25.technically flawed poll, which should not be published because it
:13:26. > :13:27.technically flawed poll, which is so flawed, then we would be
:13:28. > :13:30.stretching towards what I am predicting already. I think in the
:13:31. > :13:36.last few days we will reach that. Come on. If the no campaign can get
:13:37. > :13:43.the silent majority out, they will edge it. You think they will win,
:13:44. > :13:48.but how much? They cannot give up in a second, a moment or a mile. It is
:13:49. > :13:56.that close. It will be won by the passionate view. I will go for a
:13:57. > :14:03.narrow yes victory. I'm the George, 53 or 54% in favour of Joe -- no. --
:14:04. > :14:06.I am with George. I will leave you to argue about that later. Thank you
:14:07. > :14:08.for being with us on the special Sunday politics from Edinburgh.
:14:09. > :14:10.That's all from us today in Scotland.
:14:11. > :14:12.Don't forget the Daily Politics will have continuing coverage
:14:13. > :14:15.of the referendum campaign all this week on BBC2 at midday.
:14:16. > :14:18.On Thursday night Huw Edwards will be in Glasgow and I will be
:14:19. > :14:22.in London to bring you live coverage of the results on BBC1 from 10.40 pm
:14:23. > :14:25.on a historic night for Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
:14:26. > :14:28.And I'll be back next Sunday when we're live from the Labour
:14:29. > :14:32.Unless, of course, the referendum result is so tumultuous even the
:14:33. > :15:10.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:15:11. > :15:15.or to stay part of the United Kingdom?
:15:16. > :15:20.The BBC's online coverage will keep you up to date with every development
:15:21. > :15:25.with live streaming of the key moments, expert opinions