:00:38. > :00:40.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,
:00:41. > :00:46.live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.
:00:47. > :00:48.There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected
:00:49. > :00:53.He joins us live from his constituency, where he has
:00:54. > :01:01.It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he
:01:02. > :01:03.arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.
:01:04. > :01:06.On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned
:01:07. > :01:15.RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq
:01:16. > :01:24.Welsh secretary Stephen Crabb at the Conservative conference
:01:25. > :01:29.on defections, devolution and defeating ISIS.
:01:30. > :01:34.In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those
:01:35. > :01:39.priced out are choosing to move away.
:01:40. > :01:43.And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,
:01:44. > :01:46.who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.
:01:47. > :01:52.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:53. > :01:56.And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:57. > :01:59.And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.
:02:00. > :02:02.At the current rate of Tory resignations,
:02:03. > :02:06.Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote
:02:07. > :02:09.address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.
:02:10. > :02:13.It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP
:02:14. > :02:17.defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and
:02:18. > :02:23.Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.
:02:24. > :02:30.Here's what the Prime Minister had to say
:02:31. > :02:42.These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and
:02:43. > :02:46.rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you
:02:47. > :02:49.want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain
:02:50. > :02:53.that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a
:02:54. > :02:55.Conservative government after the next election.
:02:56. > :03:03.And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.
:03:04. > :03:10.Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative
:03:11. > :03:14.colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping
:03:15. > :03:18.faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You
:03:19. > :03:22.heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was
:03:23. > :03:26.dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have
:03:27. > :03:30.increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour
:03:31. > :03:35.managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under
:03:36. > :03:39.Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my
:03:40. > :03:42.words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut
:03:43. > :03:47.immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to
:03:48. > :03:50.the community, particularly over house-building. The government has
:03:51. > :03:55.broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my
:03:56. > :04:01.voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to
:04:02. > :04:05.UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency
:04:06. > :04:09.chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and
:04:10. > :04:14.you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office
:04:15. > :04:19.telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the
:04:20. > :04:40.Tories. This is your voice mail... I have just picked up your e-mail...
:04:41. > :04:45.So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham
:04:46. > :04:52.to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did
:04:53. > :04:57.you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually
:04:58. > :04:59.do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you
:05:00. > :05:03.cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a
:05:04. > :05:07.decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by
:05:08. > :05:13.UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a
:05:14. > :05:22.lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.
:05:23. > :05:28.That is why I am moving to UKIP, so I can deliver the change this
:05:29. > :05:34.country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,
:05:35. > :05:39.quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.
:05:40. > :05:45.So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting
:05:46. > :05:48.UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number
:05:49. > :05:52.of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are
:05:53. > :05:55.winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned
:05:56. > :05:58.with the political class in Westminster, that they have not
:05:59. > :06:03.voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is
:06:04. > :06:08.inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the
:06:09. > :06:13.last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of
:06:14. > :06:16.life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.
:06:17. > :06:23.That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of
:06:24. > :06:28.change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My
:06:29. > :06:32.ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2010
:06:33. > :06:35.as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David
:06:36. > :06:40.Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick
:06:41. > :06:44.Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and
:06:45. > :06:47.we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to
:06:48. > :06:53.pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to
:06:54. > :07:00.give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up
:07:01. > :07:09.for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the
:07:10. > :07:13.party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this
:07:14. > :07:19.is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you
:07:20. > :07:22.winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are
:07:23. > :07:28.frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to
:07:29. > :07:32.save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,
:07:33. > :07:35.you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in
:07:36. > :07:46.Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at
:07:47. > :07:50.MPs who have moved party before, almost none of them have given their
:07:51. > :07:54.voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking
:07:55. > :07:58.permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe
:07:59. > :08:02.many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a
:08:03. > :08:05.Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to
:08:06. > :08:13.decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our
:08:14. > :08:16.country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and
:08:17. > :08:24.have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and
:08:25. > :08:28.honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my
:08:29. > :08:33.constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is
:08:34. > :08:37.the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and
:08:38. > :08:44.do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas
:08:45. > :08:46.Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for
:08:47. > :08:53.disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,
:08:54. > :08:56.the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was
:08:57. > :09:01.extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years
:09:02. > :09:04.ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit
:09:05. > :09:08.speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things,
:09:09. > :09:13.there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at
:09:14. > :09:16.Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few
:09:17. > :09:20.ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just
:09:21. > :09:25.to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who
:09:26. > :09:32.believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,
:09:33. > :09:39.who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which
:09:40. > :09:42.has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,
:09:43. > :09:49.which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -
:09:50. > :09:52.after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David
:09:53. > :09:58.Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would
:09:59. > :10:02.you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP
:10:03. > :10:09.policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with
:10:10. > :10:15.immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will
:10:16. > :10:20.look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to
:10:21. > :10:33.restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How
:10:34. > :10:38.serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,
:10:39. > :10:41.destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is
:10:42. > :10:46.beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen
:10:47. > :10:51.eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing
:10:52. > :10:56.like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.
:10:57. > :11:00.There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis
:11:01. > :11:03.writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the
:11:04. > :11:07.first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used
:11:08. > :11:13.to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic
:11:14. > :11:18.in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some
:11:19. > :11:22.of us were not around in the 1980s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.
:11:23. > :11:25.There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose, the
:11:26. > :11:28.media problem of the general election which they cannot win if
:11:29. > :11:32.UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in
:11:33. > :11:36.many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does
:11:37. > :11:40.it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would
:11:41. > :11:45.it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics
:11:46. > :11:51.to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the
:11:52. > :11:55.Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably
:11:56. > :12:02.lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising
:12:03. > :12:06.them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It
:12:07. > :12:12.is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I
:12:13. > :12:17.was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the
:12:18. > :12:21.TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.
:12:22. > :12:25.But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to
:12:26. > :12:30.step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what
:12:31. > :12:35.he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in
:12:36. > :12:39.the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that
:12:40. > :12:43.we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they
:12:44. > :12:48.say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,
:12:49. > :12:53.Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this
:12:54. > :13:00.is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able
:13:01. > :13:04.to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly
:13:05. > :13:09.list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,
:13:10. > :13:21.this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.
:13:22. > :13:23.To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative
:13:24. > :13:28.The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative
:13:29. > :13:32.Pollsters ComRes spoke to over 1,000 councillors -
:13:33. > :13:35.that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier
:13:36. > :13:49.There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,
:13:50. > :13:52.and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to
:13:53. > :13:56.the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of
:13:57. > :14:02.Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge
:14:03. > :14:08.they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.
:14:09. > :14:11.Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of
:14:12. > :14:16.pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories
:14:17. > :14:23.run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten
:14:24. > :14:27.councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more
:14:28. > :14:32.ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is
:14:33. > :14:35.getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing
:14:36. > :14:44.seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be
:14:45. > :14:47.stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the
:14:48. > :14:53.policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU
:14:54. > :14:59.Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,
:15:00. > :15:11.39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...
:15:12. > :15:19.It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said
:15:20. > :15:24.were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while
:15:25. > :15:29.treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a
:15:30. > :15:33.Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative
:15:34. > :15:38.councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the
:15:39. > :15:45.general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are
:15:46. > :15:50.opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left
:15:51. > :15:57.the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the
:15:58. > :16:02.Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but
:16:03. > :16:11.what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my
:16:12. > :16:16.residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was
:16:17. > :16:23.happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%
:16:24. > :16:29.think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with
:16:30. > :16:34.31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing
:16:35. > :16:40.councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an
:16:41. > :16:48.issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a
:16:49. > :16:52.way by setting a rule like that, it is a very religious thing and it is
:16:53. > :16:58.almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the
:16:59. > :17:04.party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey
:17:05. > :17:09.thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have
:17:10. > :17:15.not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for
:17:16. > :17:20.difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must
:17:21. > :17:26.be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be
:17:27. > :17:32.specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote
:17:33. > :17:35.UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are
:17:36. > :17:40.disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,
:17:41. > :17:44.come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just
:17:45. > :17:49.eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and
:17:50. > :17:56.local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem
:17:57. > :18:02.the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former
:18:03. > :18:06.Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.
:18:07. > :18:09.Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:10. > :18:15.trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They
:18:16. > :18:20.believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and
:18:21. > :18:26.they are right. They said before they defected that people should
:18:27. > :18:32.vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is
:18:33. > :18:36.right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this
:18:37. > :18:41.is the point, the people should decide. However a future government
:18:42. > :18:46.decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who
:18:47. > :18:51.decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough
:18:52. > :18:56.powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come
:18:57. > :19:02.out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.
:19:03. > :19:07.The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron
:19:08. > :19:13.won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to
:19:14. > :19:18.give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote
:19:19. > :19:24.to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and
:19:25. > :19:28.be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in
:19:29. > :19:33.advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the
:19:34. > :19:39.rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take
:19:40. > :19:43.place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just
:19:44. > :19:47.now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that
:19:48. > :19:56.choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.
:19:57. > :20:00.Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave
:20:01. > :20:08.the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but
:20:09. > :20:14.again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want
:20:15. > :20:18.to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before
:20:19. > :20:22.they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is
:20:23. > :20:30.Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will
:20:31. > :20:35.not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I
:20:36. > :20:38.think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be
:20:39. > :20:43.scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,
:20:44. > :20:48.didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign
:20:49. > :20:53.Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first
:20:54. > :21:00.reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher...
:21:01. > :21:05.Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26
:21:06. > :21:14.years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.
:21:15. > :21:18.Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?
:21:19. > :21:21.We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve
:21:22. > :21:29.things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider
:21:30. > :21:36.negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative
:21:37. > :21:49.promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to
:21:50. > :21:55.keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,000,
:21:56. > :22:13.you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250,000
:22:14. > :22:21.in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that
:22:22. > :22:25.under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the
:22:26. > :22:30.country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?
:22:31. > :22:37.Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?
:22:38. > :22:41.coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened
:22:42. > :22:47.under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we
:22:48. > :22:52.would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on
:22:53. > :22:58.immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.
:22:59. > :23:03.Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in
:23:04. > :23:08.2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP
:23:09. > :23:14.now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in
:23:15. > :23:19.this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought
:23:20. > :23:23.they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a
:23:24. > :23:28.thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of
:23:29. > :23:32.opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will
:23:33. > :23:36.be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are
:23:37. > :23:41.announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next
:23:42. > :23:46.Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather
:23:47. > :23:54.than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our
:23:55. > :24:00.survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact
:24:01. > :24:09.with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows
:24:10. > :24:16.one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want
:24:17. > :24:20.it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't
:24:21. > :24:27.work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are
:24:28. > :24:32.sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is
:24:33. > :24:37.further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards
:24:38. > :24:40.English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is
:24:41. > :24:44.unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we
:24:45. > :24:48.believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we
:24:49. > :24:54.have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK
:24:55. > :24:58.as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election
:24:59. > :25:04.result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,
:25:05. > :25:09.absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns
:25:10. > :25:14.night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals
:25:15. > :25:19.for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are
:25:20. > :25:25.agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There
:25:26. > :25:33.was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will
:25:34. > :25:37.produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for
:25:38. > :25:41.Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals
:25:42. > :25:47.for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will
:25:48. > :25:51.you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?
:25:52. > :25:57.The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You
:25:58. > :26:02.will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I
:26:03. > :26:06.don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish
:26:07. > :26:11.timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general
:26:12. > :26:17.election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what
:26:18. > :26:23.English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it
:26:24. > :26:28.over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,
:26:29. > :26:33.but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions
:26:34. > :26:39.that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs
:26:40. > :26:42.from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can
:26:43. > :26:46.achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English
:26:47. > :26:53.devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if
:26:54. > :26:57.you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going
:26:58. > :27:02.on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more
:27:03. > :27:07.freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of
:27:08. > :27:16.that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what
:27:17. > :27:21.happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution
:27:22. > :27:26.or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and
:27:27. > :27:30.that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair
:27:31. > :27:35.to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you
:27:36. > :27:42.perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more
:27:43. > :27:48.tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a
:27:49. > :27:52.commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --
:27:53. > :28:00.but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is
:28:01. > :28:05.less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to
:28:06. > :28:10.Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot
:28:11. > :28:15.more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about
:28:16. > :28:20.taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you
:28:21. > :28:24.can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,
:28:25. > :28:28.there will be English votes for English laws after the election?
:28:29. > :28:32.Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if
:28:33. > :28:36.there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce
:28:37. > :28:42.our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go
:28:43. > :28:47.away because I want to move on to some other matters.
:28:48. > :28:50.Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.
:28:51. > :28:52.Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq
:28:53. > :28:55.since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.
:28:56. > :29:04.When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers
:29:05. > :29:08.who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have
:29:09. > :29:13.already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to
:29:14. > :29:18.maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back
:29:19. > :29:22.from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else
:29:23. > :29:26.try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a
:29:27. > :29:31.full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role
:29:32. > :29:35.to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.
:29:36. > :29:38.And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,
:29:39. > :29:50.Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all
:29:51. > :29:54.that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been
:29:55. > :30:02.announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are
:30:03. > :30:04.sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of
:30:05. > :30:10.Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so
:30:11. > :30:15.little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some
:30:16. > :30:19.unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked
:30:20. > :30:23.for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it
:30:24. > :30:29.will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which
:30:30. > :30:32.can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the
:30:33. > :30:38.operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,
:30:39. > :30:41.Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our
:30:42. > :30:47.backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British
:30:48. > :30:50.government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic
:30:51. > :30:56.country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could
:30:57. > :31:00.have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political
:31:01. > :31:05.consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to
:31:06. > :31:08.send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with
:31:09. > :31:11.that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many
:31:12. > :31:19.other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards
:31:20. > :31:24.Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he
:31:25. > :31:26.condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any
:31:27. > :31:37.credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,
:31:38. > :31:41.they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we
:31:42. > :31:46.are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote
:31:47. > :31:49.last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the
:31:50. > :31:53.House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken
:31:54. > :31:56.care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of
:31:57. > :32:05.Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until
:32:06. > :32:10.recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq
:32:11. > :32:17.but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make
:32:18. > :32:24.sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our
:32:25. > :32:28.assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime
:32:29. > :32:34.Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there
:32:35. > :32:38.is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When
:32:39. > :32:42.we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by
:32:43. > :32:48.all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign
:32:49. > :32:51.policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority
:32:52. > :32:56.in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael
:32:57. > :33:03.Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he
:33:04. > :33:07.says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they
:33:08. > :33:11.are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery
:33:12. > :33:15.of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything
:33:16. > :33:19.does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United
:33:20. > :33:23.States and other countries are engaged in the action against
:33:24. > :33:29.targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing
:33:30. > :33:32.different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the
:33:33. > :33:37.House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have
:33:38. > :33:41.achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.
:33:42. > :33:45.The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported
:33:46. > :33:49.that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a
:33:50. > :33:53.democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a
:33:54. > :33:59.very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue
:34:00. > :34:04.a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not
:34:05. > :34:09.embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military
:34:10. > :34:13.experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone
:34:14. > :34:20.tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We
:34:21. > :34:24.have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike
:34:25. > :34:27.the last government. The national security council is chaired by the
:34:28. > :34:35.Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of
:34:36. > :34:39.the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the
:34:40. > :34:45.people who have the information now. So, you will know what British
:34:46. > :34:50.and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said
:34:51. > :34:54.there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come
:34:55. > :34:56.back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will
:34:57. > :35:02.have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,
:35:03. > :35:08.indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does
:35:09. > :35:15.that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:16. > :35:20.comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat
:35:21. > :35:25.to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't.
:35:26. > :35:30.Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in
:35:31. > :35:34.the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take
:35:35. > :35:38.action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have
:35:39. > :35:44.not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought
:35:45. > :35:47.we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes
:35:48. > :35:54.on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal
:35:55. > :35:58.basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading
:35:59. > :36:04.of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that
:36:05. > :36:08.they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their
:36:09. > :36:15.action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes
:36:16. > :36:21.back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless, it
:36:22. > :36:26.is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria
:36:27. > :36:32.in building up the political strength of the more moderate
:36:33. > :36:36.opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do
:36:37. > :36:43.not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing
:36:44. > :36:47.something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you
:36:48. > :36:52.not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure
:36:53. > :36:57.of the legal advice at the time, and also we do not comment on the advice
:36:58. > :37:02.given to us by the Law officers. Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That
:37:03. > :37:06.was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal
:37:07. > :37:11.advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal
:37:12. > :37:14.situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it
:37:15. > :37:24.that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme
:37:25. > :37:28.humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine
:37:29. > :37:29.strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal
:37:30. > :37:31.advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say
:37:32. > :37:36.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:37:37. > :37:47.minutes, The Week Ahead. Hello and welcome to
:37:48. > :37:50.Sunday Politics Wales. It's not exactly been a dream start
:37:51. > :38:04.for the Conservative conference. We hear from Welsh Secretary Stephen
:38:05. > :38:09.Crabb about defections and resignations. And we speak to Nathan
:38:10. > :38:14.Gill whose party, UKIP, is giving the Tories a headache.
:38:15. > :38:17.Votes for 16-year-olds, it happened in the Scottish referendum, what
:38:18. > :38:20.about Wales? And Finance Minister Jane Hutt has
:38:21. > :38:24.been speaking to people across Wales as she prepares her budget.
:38:25. > :38:26.Crisis, chaos - thanks to a defection and a resignation, there's
:38:27. > :38:30.not much on the front pages to cheer up Conservatives this morning.
:38:31. > :38:32.They're holding their annual conference
:38:33. > :38:34.in Birmingham, their last before the general election, where the
:38:35. > :38:36.Welsh secretary Stephen Crabb has been speaking to our parliamentary
:38:37. > :38:52.Hello from a Sunni Birmingham. An interesting start to the week for
:38:53. > :38:59.the Conservatives. Perhaps they were expecting a difficult time. You can
:39:00. > :39:03.buy these stress balls for a pound. I think I will give one to Stephen
:39:04. > :39:08.Crabb, the Secretary of State for Wales. Apart from the defection and
:39:09. > :39:14.we ministerial resignation, what sort of week has it been?
:39:15. > :39:20.We don't make it easy for ourselves. It is going to be a very important
:39:21. > :39:24.week because of military action we are taking in Iraq through to
:39:25. > :39:27.questions about securing the economic recovery for this country
:39:28. > :39:31.and the big challenges of immigration and housing. Those are
:39:32. > :39:37.the issues we are going to be focusing on. All these as issues are
:39:38. > :39:46.exciting for the media -- other issues.
:39:47. > :39:51.But there is stuff behind the defection. Your party is struggling
:39:52. > :39:56.to convince Conservative members of Parliament that the Prime Minister
:39:57. > :40:00.wants to leave the EU? I think it is coming through that
:40:01. > :40:04.their way to get the referendum on ownership of the EU is by electing
:40:05. > :40:09.the Conservative government. We know that UKIP is playing a wrecking ball
:40:10. > :40:16.strategy. I was very sad that Douglas Carswell left. Mark
:40:17. > :40:24.Reckless, UKIP can have him. He is a difficult individual. We have a
:40:25. > :40:28.challenge to get our message clear on immigration, because those are
:40:29. > :40:35.the issues people care about. On the EU, you would be repaired to
:40:36. > :40:38.vote for Britain to leave the EU, just to reassure any more
:40:39. > :40:42.Conservative MPs who think the government isn't serious.
:40:43. > :40:46.If we don't get the changes that the Prime Minister wants to see in terms
:40:47. > :40:51.of our relationship with the EU, a less intrusive and burdensome EU. If
:40:52. > :40:56.you speak to businesses, they will tell you that the level of
:40:57. > :41:02.interference is too much from the EU. Unless we get serious change on
:41:03. > :41:04.that then yes, I would go into a referendum campaign saying this is
:41:05. > :41:10.not in the best interest of Britain and Wales to remain part of this. I
:41:11. > :41:16.am confident if we do this right, we can get those changes.
:41:17. > :41:19.You mentioned the air strikes. Parliament has voted to go into
:41:20. > :41:22.military action but we don't know where it will end.
:41:23. > :41:26.We know it will be a long and drawn-out affair. I think the debate
:41:27. > :41:31.on Friday in the Commons, the Prime Minister and the opposition were
:41:32. > :41:36.very clear and realistic about that. This isn't a short-term fix and we
:41:37. > :41:44.are not relying on air strikes alone. We are going to be involved
:41:45. > :41:47.in some time to come. We have a responsibility to act to this
:41:48. > :41:50.thread. Moving on, the tremors from the
:41:51. > :41:55.Scottish referendum being felt in all the party conferences. His other
:41:56. > :41:59.Wales will be central to the future of the debate but given that 45% of
:42:00. > :42:04.Scots voted to leave, how are you going to ensure that Wales is
:42:05. > :42:08.actually part of the debate? The pro-Minister also said that he
:42:09. > :42:12.wants Wales to be at the heart of this. He picked William Hague, a
:42:13. > :42:17.former Welsh Secretary to chair the devolution committee. He has a huge
:42:18. > :42:22.knowledge of Wales and I will be working alongside him with that. We
:42:23. > :42:26.are clear that Wales is not a bit part player in the scene and we are
:42:27. > :42:31.going to be at the core. What does that mean? We are talking
:42:32. > :42:36.about the future of the UK and the institutional framework that keeps
:42:37. > :42:40.us together. Wales is very much at the heart of that and that is what
:42:41. > :42:44.we will be talking about. What does it mean in terms of
:42:45. > :42:50.policy? We have the Wales Bill going through Parliament at the moment to
:42:51. > :42:53.devolve more powers to Wales. Your timetable is speedier than the
:42:54. > :42:58.Scots, in a sense. The bill has a lot of support in the
:42:59. > :43:01.House of Commons and it is in the House of Lords at the moment but
:43:02. > :43:06.beyond that, we have the Silk Commission which has options in
:43:07. > :43:09.terms of further devolution. That is the work we will be looking at and
:43:10. > :43:14.we want to deliver on that. Some of it will require legislation in the
:43:15. > :43:22.next parliament but some things we can do before then so should we.
:43:23. > :43:25.That is the kind of thing we should be looking at as part of the Cabinet
:43:26. > :43:31.committee on devolution alongside the work on Scotland and England.
:43:32. > :43:33.You have heard from the Welsh government that yes, they want what
:43:34. > :43:38.is being offered to Scotland but they want to be able to pick and
:43:39. > :43:42.choose from that menu. You want the worst government to be more
:43:43. > :43:45.accountable and responsible. Does that mean they would still have to
:43:46. > :43:50.have a referendum before getting income tax powers?
:43:51. > :43:53.I think the referendum is a good thing and we need to move in step
:43:54. > :43:59.with public opinion. And forget the people of Scotland settled it by
:44:00. > :44:04.saying they want the Scottish parliament to have tax-raising
:44:05. > :44:07.powers. That question has never been put to the people of Wales and I
:44:08. > :44:10.think it is important we stick to that principle. If it becomes clear
:44:11. > :44:15.that every party wants this and there is a groundswell of public
:44:16. > :44:19.opinion evident in Wales that they want to move ahead quickly with
:44:20. > :44:24.income tax evolution, maybe there is a discussion to have. I think the
:44:25. > :44:27.referendum is a positive thing and it would be irresponsible of Welsh
:44:28. > :44:31.government not to have it. They need to show they are willing to use the
:44:32. > :44:34.tax powers we are giving them. You know the Welsh government has
:44:35. > :44:39.said that there are so many hurdles in front of it that it won't trigger
:44:40. > :44:44.that referendum so you are effectively offering the Welsh
:44:45. > :44:48.government a veto on accountability. The government needs to come clean
:44:49. > :44:54.on what it really wants from this next stage of devolution, tax
:44:55. > :44:58.devolution. Their participation in the Silk Commission seemed to
:44:59. > :45:03.indicate strong support. They seemed to be a consensus for this next days
:45:04. > :45:06.of tax devolution. It is worrying that Welsh Labour seems to be
:45:07. > :45:10.backtracking. Listening to the comments not just from Carwyn Jones
:45:11. > :45:16.but from Owen Smith in Westminster as well. I think the responsible
:45:17. > :45:20.thing to do is get behind it and support it and recognise it as a
:45:21. > :45:25.healthy next stage. One of the points they have been
:45:26. > :45:29.making is that the income tax power model you are offering just doesn't
:45:30. > :45:33.offer them enough flexibility. That is the model in the bill. They
:45:34. > :45:38.supported it in the House of Commons stage of its passage. I am
:45:39. > :45:42.open-minded about that and maybe we can look at that again.
:45:43. > :45:50.I shall let you go and rivers yours each. Have a stress ball.
:45:51. > :45:56.That was David Cornock talking to the Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb.
:45:57. > :45:58.The Children's Commissioner for Wales has told this programme
:45:59. > :46:01.that more work needs to be done in schools before
:46:02. > :46:05.But Keith Towler said he agreed with calls to let 16
:46:06. > :46:08.and 17-year-olds vote in elections after the voting age was lowered
:46:09. > :46:17.The issue divides opinion, as Cemlyn Davies reports.
:46:18. > :46:25.Thousands of teenagers filing into a concert venue may not seem
:46:26. > :46:28.particularly significant that the? This gathering of young people in
:46:29. > :46:35.Glasgow earlier this year was part of an historic decision in British
:46:36. > :46:40.politics. The BBC big debate brought together 16 and 17-year-olds from
:46:41. > :46:44.all over Scotland to discuss the independence referendum and to
:46:45. > :46:53.listen, not to a rock band, but two for politicians trying to secure
:46:54. > :46:56.their vote. -- but two four politicians. There were calls for
:46:57. > :47:01.the voting age to be lowered across the UK. The Liberal Democrats want
:47:02. > :47:07.to see that happen and this week, their education spokesperson in the
:47:08. > :47:11.Welsh assembly went back to school to discuss this issue.
:47:12. > :47:15.There are some that are very well informed and others that might be
:47:16. > :47:19.influenced by their peers and by members of their families. That is
:47:20. > :47:26.the case for youngsters who are 18 and is certainly the case for people
:47:27. > :47:30.much older than that. I don't really understand this demarcation between
:47:31. > :47:34.16 and 17-year-old. Plaid Cymru and Labour also want to
:47:35. > :47:39.see 16-year-olds given the vote. The Conservatives are less enthusiastic.
:47:40. > :47:43.It is a question of maturity in terms of their knowledge of politics
:47:44. > :47:48.and experience of the world. I'm not saying we can't have it and given
:47:49. > :47:50.the issues that will, constitutionally as a result of what
:47:51. > :47:54.happened in Scotland it is something we should be considering. I think we
:47:55. > :47:59.need to be very cautious on our approach to giving votes to
:48:00. > :48:04.16-year-olds. The suffragettes on the march...
:48:05. > :48:09.Things were very different a century ago when women of all ages were
:48:10. > :48:16.still fighting for the vote. That battle was won in 1918 but even
:48:17. > :48:22.then, only with regard to some women over the age of 30. Ten years later
:48:23. > :48:26.that fell to 21, in line with men. Dish voters will have gone to the
:48:27. > :48:28.polls... In 1970, 80-year-olds were allowed
:48:29. > :48:36.to take part in the general election. The Scottish --
:48:37. > :48:39.18-year-olds. The Scottish referendum was the first time that
:48:40. > :48:43.16 and 17-year-olds have been allowed to vote in the UK. The
:48:44. > :48:46.children's Commissioner hopes that will be the case again.
:48:47. > :48:52.Children and young people are getting involved in their
:48:53. > :48:56.communities and making a difference so the next step is to welcome them
:48:57. > :49:01.into the democratic process. At this point do you think enough is
:49:02. > :49:03.being done? For example, a 16-year-olds were given the vote to
:49:04. > :49:08.take part in an election next week or next month, if the infrastructure
:49:09. > :49:13.in place and the understanding for them to do that?
:49:14. > :49:19.No, it isn't. We need to invest some real time in thinking through how we
:49:20. > :49:24.can equip young people to understand and be prepared for a decision to be
:49:25. > :49:29.made about lowering the voting age. Get conversations going and are
:49:30. > :49:34.national participation structures with politicians and with Welsh
:49:35. > :49:37.government, driven by the education curriculum are preparing young
:49:38. > :49:41.people to think this through solidly so they can exercise their vote in
:49:42. > :49:46.the right way. How long would it be until that
:49:47. > :49:52.infrastructure is in place, for example, is the next general
:49:53. > :49:55.elections who soon -- too soon? I don't think so. We should be able
:49:56. > :49:59.to do it for the next assembly election.
:50:00. > :50:04.More than 100,000 young people were registered to vote in the Scottish
:50:05. > :50:10.referendum. Lowering the vote across the UK would affect 1.5 million
:50:11. > :50:15.teenagers, 75,000 here. Currently there is a 2 tier system
:50:16. > :50:21.of citizens. The state can make demands of 16 and 17-year-olds
:50:22. > :50:24.because they can learn to drive and pay tax but they can't communicate
:50:25. > :50:27.how they feel about these institutions.
:50:28. > :50:31.I think that is something that has to change. But what do young people
:50:32. > :50:36.themselves make of the suggestion they should be allowed to vote?
:50:37. > :50:40.Is the only thing I would say is we would need more information before
:50:41. > :50:43.we could make the decision. I feel like young people would like to have
:50:44. > :50:46.a say in what happens in the country but I don't think we have enough
:50:47. > :50:50.information yet. I know quite a lot of 16-year-olds
:50:51. > :50:55.are very impressionable and we don't have enough expertise on who to vote
:50:56. > :51:02.for. The Scottish referendum has raised
:51:03. > :51:09.important questions about what the voting age should be. It will be up
:51:10. > :51:12.to MPs in Westminster to decide if 16 and 17-year-old should be given
:51:13. > :51:17.the vote, but there are calls for powers to be devolved to make
:51:18. > :51:25.decisions like that in Cardiff Bay. The Presiding Officer has previously
:51:26. > :51:28.said that we need it discussion about lowering the voting age but it
:51:29. > :51:31.Tuesday is budget day for the Welsh government
:51:32. > :51:34.when finance minister Jane Hutt will unveil next year's spending plans.
:51:35. > :51:36.But with no majority in the Senedd and with the squeeze
:51:37. > :51:43.Behind-the-scenes Finance Minister budget approved by the assembly?
:51:44. > :51:49.Behind-the-scenes Finance Minister Jane Hutt has been talking to her
:51:50. > :51:53.opponents to negotiate a deal. In public she has been around Wales
:51:54. > :51:58.talking to public sector workers to hear their views on what to spare
:51:59. > :52:02.from the cuts. She has been speaking to my colleague.
:52:03. > :52:06.I have been so impressed by the commitment, determination and
:52:07. > :52:13.willingness to be positive about how they can live under these very
:52:14. > :52:18.difficult circumstances. It is very tough for them because it is 1.5
:52:19. > :52:24.billion yes that we have got to spend our budget so it has all been
:52:25. > :52:27.about priorities. As a is difficult because people
:52:28. > :52:34.want more money spent on their services and you can't offer that.
:52:35. > :52:38.It is about getting back to the word priorities. What do they feel we
:52:39. > :52:43.should be investing? A strong message coming over is that we
:52:44. > :52:48.should do things to prevent things getting worse or prevent ill-health
:52:49. > :52:53.or the kind of poverty that we know blights many people's lives. Also
:52:54. > :52:56.things like if you look at prevention, every meeting people
:52:57. > :53:01.have said that we need to invest in prevention. If we can help keep
:53:02. > :53:05.people at home for treatment rather than admitted into hospital.
:53:06. > :53:09.If you speak to people working in the NHS, they say they have made
:53:10. > :53:14.these cuts already and they are finding it difficult.
:53:15. > :53:19.Of course, people will say, should you spend so much money on arts and
:53:20. > :53:24.culture and sport? If we need to spend more money on social services.
:53:25. > :53:29.These are very tough decisions that ultimately, I have got to go away
:53:30. > :53:32.and with my colleagues in the most government say, how are we going to
:53:33. > :53:39.manage in these tough times? I have to say that this tool that I've
:53:40. > :53:45.taken with people, all that they have wanted to do is say to me that
:53:46. > :53:51.we can work together. We want to serve the people and use our
:53:52. > :53:54.professional skills to the full. It has been remarkable. I have also
:53:55. > :54:01.been going out to meet people who are using our services. I have met
:54:02. > :54:06.apprentices and elderly people, as well as young people who are getting
:54:07. > :54:10.into work. I can see what works because it is very important in
:54:11. > :54:12.government that you check out, through proper evidence and
:54:13. > :54:18.evaluation, what is making a difference. Sometimes you have to
:54:19. > :54:20.say, if it isn't, we shouldn't continue with it.
:54:21. > :54:24.On Tuesday when we see the government, will we see evidence
:54:25. > :54:28.that the tough decisions have been made?
:54:29. > :54:31.Tough choices in the budget next Tuesday.
:54:32. > :54:33.Finance Minister Jane Hutt talking to Tomos Livingstone about Tuesday's
:54:34. > :54:38.As we've heard, UKIP are causing problems for the Tories,
:54:39. > :54:42.UKIP leader Nigel Farage said the party is "parking its tanks" on
:54:43. > :54:48.Labour's lawn and is emerging as the main opposition to Labour in Wales.
:54:49. > :54:50.That was his message at the UKIP conference
:54:51. > :54:56.in Doncaster this weekend, where he also a range of income tax cuts.
:54:57. > :54:59.Nathan Gill is the UKIP MEP for Wales and is in our Bangor studio.
:55:00. > :55:11.Let's start with these defections. Are you tapping up any Welsh MPs,
:55:12. > :55:15.Nathan Gill? We are not just parking our tank on
:55:16. > :55:20.the lawn of Labour, we are talking about driving a tank through the
:55:21. > :55:25.valleys. I am not tapping up any of the Labour MPs personally but I'm
:55:26. > :55:29.sure Farage is in conversation with him. He has indicated that is the
:55:30. > :55:33.case so we are looking forward to hearing some more exciting
:55:34. > :55:38.announcements in the future. What about Welsh Tories? David Jones
:55:39. > :55:43.has apparently declined your invitations.
:55:44. > :55:47.It is all about what we really believe in and do we believe in
:55:48. > :55:54.Great Britain? To be really believe in giving people what they want and
:55:55. > :56:00.party loyalty? -- do we believe. There are people in the Conservative
:56:01. > :56:03.as well as Labour who said we will cut the deficit and cut immigration
:56:04. > :56:09.into this country, getting us out of the EU. They are unable to do that
:56:10. > :56:13.under the Conservatives or Labour and the only way is for them to be
:56:14. > :56:16.honest and admit that UKIP are the only party in town when it comes to
:56:17. > :56:22.this. Last week we published a poll that
:56:23. > :56:26.showed that your party has picked up noticeable support in Wales, up
:56:27. > :56:29.seven points and putting you in third place for the general
:56:30. > :56:34.election. How much of that is down to Europe?
:56:35. > :56:39.I think initially we were the party of the one issue that everybody
:56:40. > :56:43.talked about, the EU. As we discovered in the Scottish
:56:44. > :56:52.referendum, there is a deep? Great deal of disconnect -- a great deal
:56:53. > :56:57.of disconnect. People just don't seem to connect with Westminster.
:56:58. > :57:04.They vote for these MPs and they seem to represent their own parties.
:57:05. > :57:08.We want MPs that represent the people of their constituencies and
:57:09. > :57:12.what we want. Uncontrolled immigration, as an example, people
:57:13. > :57:18.are furious about it because if you can't get local housing and your job
:57:19. > :57:22.is dependent on the job market and there is a never-ending stream of
:57:23. > :57:27.cheap Labour, no wonder people find it hard to find work. People want
:57:28. > :57:29.politicians to stand up for the British people first and UKIP can do
:57:30. > :57:35.that. Let's look at Europe and the in and
:57:36. > :57:42.out referendum that David Cameron has offered. 14% support in Wales
:57:43. > :57:45.suggests that you could tip the balance in some constituencies
:57:46. > :57:49.against the Conservatives. That would make it less likely they would
:57:50. > :57:55.get a majority and that there would be a referendum on the EU.
:57:56. > :57:59.The Conservatives don't deserve another term in office. What they
:58:00. > :58:05.have done is a disgrace, selling us out time and time again. As Douglas
:58:06. > :58:09.Carswell and Mark Reckless have said when they defected from the
:58:10. > :58:15.Conservatives to UKIP, basically it is all a ruse and David Cameron
:58:16. > :58:20.wants to do what Mr Wilson did in the 70s and have a sham of a
:58:21. > :58:26.renegotiation. A loaded referendum question. It doesn't matter because
:58:27. > :58:30.it is crucial we have UKIP MPs in Westminster, that we hold the
:58:31. > :58:33.balance of power and we can make sure we get a free and fair
:58:34. > :58:39.referendum on the big issue that matters, the EU.
:58:40. > :58:41.But better that referendum than no referendum at all is what some
:58:42. > :58:46.voters will be thinking if they are Eurosceptic. Dali, voting for UKIP
:58:47. > :58:50.could make it even more remote a prospect.
:58:51. > :59:02.We have said all along that they'll abound in trouble. -- Ed Miliband is
:59:03. > :59:05.in trouble. We are saying it doesn't matter if
:59:06. > :59:09.you vote Conservative or Labour because they will give you the same
:59:10. > :59:16.old. You will get a sham referendum. If you vote UKIP, you get UKIP. It
:59:17. > :59:21.is crucial we get into Westminster, where we can make the difference.
:59:22. > :59:27.If UKIP is about more than Europe, let's look at some of the income tax
:59:28. > :59:34.policies that Farage has unveiled. Cuts in every tax band, no income
:59:35. > :59:39.tax all the way up to ?13,500. How would you pay for this?
:59:40. > :59:47.Why are people on a minimum wage paying tax? We pay ?55 million a day
:59:48. > :59:51.to the EU. It all comes back to that.
:59:52. > :59:58.We are paying ?21 million a day in foreign aid, which is a disgrace
:59:59. > :00:02.when we have so many people reliant on food banks. We will cut that
:00:03. > :00:06.budget and reduce it to ?1 billion a year...
:00:07. > :00:12.Would that be enough to pay for your income tax cuts or would you still
:00:13. > :00:16.pull out of the EU? We are going to do that as well,
:00:17. > :00:22.that is what we are all about. We will save ?55 million a day from
:00:23. > :00:28.that. We believe strongly that a pound spent by a British citizen is
:00:29. > :00:31.better than a pound spent by the British government.
:00:32. > :00:34.Next week we will be hearing from the Liberal Democrats
:00:35. > :00:37.as they meet in Glasgow for their annual conference.
:00:38. > :00:40.We're @walespolitics for all the latest political news in Wales
:00:41. > :00:57.My thanks to you both. Andrew, back to you.
:00:58. > :01:05.Here we are back in Birmingham with the Conservatives. The Tories
:01:06. > :01:11.thought all they had to do was come here, have a rally, a jamboree, and
:01:12. > :01:16.off they go to the races, or in their case the general election. Two
:01:17. > :01:22.races later it hasn't quite worked out like that. Let's look at the
:01:23. > :01:28.state of this conference as it gets under way. On our panel we are
:01:29. > :01:33.joined by David Davis. You wrote an article in the Mail on Sunday this
:01:34. > :01:39.morning which was an Exocet at the heart of David Cameron's modernising
:01:40. > :01:46.strategy. It was designed to act as a lever. It was designed to cause
:01:47. > :01:50.trouble. No, we are in the running for the next general election. One
:01:51. > :01:55.of the characteristics of having a five year fixed term Parliaments is
:01:56. > :01:59.that the last year is about campaigning. It is important we beat
:02:00. > :02:05.Miliband, he would be a disastrous Prime Minister. You think the whole
:02:06. > :02:13.modernising strategy was a wrong turn, that is what the article said.
:02:14. > :02:33.Yes. Has that opened the door to UKIP? It has left a lot of people
:02:34. > :02:35.disillusioned with politics. What do you do to get it right? Who was
:02:36. > :03:11.listening to you? Frankly we need to take a more
:03:12. > :03:15.robust series of policies. How many more UKIP defections will there be?
:03:16. > :03:23.I do not think there will be any more. I would be very surprised. I
:03:24. > :03:28.know Nigel Farage has a brilliant sense of timing, but I do not think
:03:29. > :03:34.he has got the resources to do that, namely, another Tory MP. So it could
:03:35. > :03:40.be another Labour one, maybe? I think an awful lot will hinge on
:03:41. > :03:45.what happens in Rochester. Because that is not a slam dunk. Clack and
:03:46. > :03:57.unfortunately looks like it will be a walkover for them. But Rochester
:03:58. > :04:03.is a different scene. And so, there could be a kind of Newark situation.
:04:04. > :04:08.When I campaigned in Newark, two labour families I spoke to said they
:04:09. > :04:13.would vote Tory to keep UKIP out. How bad was the Labour conference
:04:14. > :04:18.last week? One politician said after he had a really bad performance that
:04:19. > :04:23.his television performance was suboptimal. I think that would be a
:04:24. > :04:26.good way of describing Ed Miliband's speech. The problem for
:04:27. > :04:30.Ed Miliband in memorising speeches is that we are not auditioning for a
:04:31. > :04:36.new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing for Prime Minister. He failed the
:04:37. > :04:39.Laurence Olivier test, and therefore failed the Prime Minister test. I
:04:40. > :04:43.think the real problem for him was forgetting to mention the deficit.
:04:44. > :04:48.He spoke from the heart about issues which she really cares about, the
:04:49. > :04:52.NHS, the rupture between wages and inflation, and forgot the deficit.
:04:53. > :04:55.Those issues are important, but if you are not addressing things like
:04:56. > :05:00.the deficit, then people are really not going to be listening to your
:05:01. > :05:07.messages on the areas that matter. Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am
:05:08. > :05:10.afraid. I hope that this ends the nonsense of leaders wasting their
:05:11. > :05:15.time learning speeches off by heart. You could learn a Shakespeare
:05:16. > :05:20.play in the time it takes to learn 70 minutes of a leader's speech. I
:05:21. > :05:24.think we should just go back to sensible reading what you have
:05:25. > :05:28.written. You can then alter it just beforehand. A lot of things were
:05:29. > :05:32.changing, which is not surprising, but he did not have time to learn
:05:33. > :05:36.it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked once or twice, but that is enough
:05:37. > :05:39.for that. Despite some of the derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories
:05:40. > :05:44.are flat-lining in the sun decks, they have been there almost since
:05:45. > :05:50.the disastrous budget, the omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is
:05:51. > :05:55.still several points ahead, nothing seems to change? And David Cameron
:05:56. > :05:59.is now the leader in trouble. It is almost as if a week is a long time
:06:00. > :06:06.in politics. I thought the Labour and friends was Saab --
:06:07. > :06:12.sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial. You could've watched the top
:06:13. > :06:17.speeches without knowing that the borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and
:06:18. > :06:20.Syria were in question. I hope, because of Friday's discussion in
:06:21. > :06:25.Parliament, that this conference will raise its sights a bit, and we
:06:26. > :06:29.will have something in Cameron's speech, possibly that of George
:06:30. > :06:34.Osborne as well, which is a bit more global. People hoped UKIP had gone
:06:35. > :06:41.away during the summer, people at this conference, I mean, but it is
:06:42. > :06:45.back with a bang. They are still up at 15% in the polls, the Tories
:06:46. > :06:50.languishing on 32 - what is going to change? UKIP won 3% of the last
:06:51. > :06:58.election, I always thought they would get about 6%. If, by the turn
:06:59. > :07:03.of the year, they are still in double digits, I think at that point
:07:04. > :07:08.you can begin to wake of his party's chances of winning. I have
:07:09. > :07:12.had three people say to me so far, come election day, it will be fine,
:07:13. > :07:16.people will sober up and so on. It will be all right on the night is
:07:17. > :07:24.not a very good strategy, frankly. When they get past 5%, I start to
:07:25. > :07:28.bite into our 3-way marginal seats, with liberals, Labour and Tories,
:07:29. > :07:33.and we have got about 60 of those in the Midlands and the north, so it
:07:34. > :07:37.really is quite serious. And if I may steal one of David's lines, when
:07:38. > :07:41.you were interviewing Mark Reckless this morning, and was not talking
:07:42. > :07:45.about the EU referendum, he was talking about how he felt he had
:07:46. > :07:49.broken his pledges to the electorate because the Conservatives he said
:07:50. > :07:51.had failed on immigration and on the deficit, and those sort of
:07:52. > :07:56.bread-and-butter issues could be really potent on the doorstep, which
:07:57. > :07:59.means the Tories have got to run the kind of campaign they ran in Newark,
:08:00. > :08:04.which is a real centre ground, Reddan but a campaign, in which they
:08:05. > :08:09.would hope to get Liberal Democrat and Labour voters out to vote
:08:10. > :08:14.tactically against UKIP. I think today we have seen Cameron been
:08:15. > :08:18.pushed to the right. He has had to say, yes, I would leave Europe,
:08:19. > :08:22.which he has never said before. It is a huge stepping stone, a big
:08:23. > :08:29.difference. It takes the Tory party somewhere else. May be get them a
:08:30. > :08:35.lot of votes. But it has not so far. But I think it loses a lot of
:08:36. > :08:39.people. The industry organisations, for example. The prospect of going
:08:40. > :08:45.out of Europe, but is quite a fight for them. Is it not the lesson that
:08:46. > :08:55.you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do not need to, really. I agree, last
:08:56. > :09:04.week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold on, that is enough subs! I would not
:09:05. > :09:10.be crowing too much! But what I was going to say, he left out something
:09:11. > :09:14.incredibly important, the deficit. But how many people outside the M25
:09:15. > :09:19.are thinking about the deficit? One problem we face with Miliband is, he
:09:20. > :09:24.is good at politics and bad at economics, in a way. He comes up
:09:25. > :09:28.with bonkers policies which people love, price-fixing, things like
:09:29. > :09:33.that. Our problem will be about relevance on the doorstep. I do not
:09:34. > :09:38.think at the end of the day it will be about Europe. But was there not a
:09:39. > :09:40.moment of danger for you at the conference, that one area where
:09:41. > :09:44.Miliband is potentially vulnerable is not having credible team with
:09:45. > :09:48.business. Who turned up at the Labour conference, the head of
:09:49. > :09:53.Airbus, saying, we have got to stay in the European Union? The danger is
:09:54. > :10:01.that Europe allows the Labour Party to gain credibility with business.
:10:02. > :10:05.There is some truth in that. But we are in effectively the home
:10:06. > :10:09.straight, the last six months, and people will be fussing about prices
:10:10. > :10:14.and jobs. Very parochial. They will not be saying, what does the CBI
:10:15. > :10:19.think about this? It is, what is happening to me, in my town, in my
:10:20. > :10:28.factory, in my office. That is where the fight will be. Is it not the
:10:29. > :10:32.truth that if UKIP stays anywhere near around this level of support,
:10:33. > :10:36.it is impossible for the Tories to win an overall majority? I would
:10:37. > :10:40.say, if it is this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to
:10:41. > :10:44.finish as the biggest party, even in a hung Parliament. The Tories keep
:10:45. > :10:49.trying to win back UKIP voters with cold logic - witches it makes Ed
:10:50. > :10:55.Miliband becoming prime minister more likely. UKIP is basically a
:10:56. > :10:59.vessel phenomenon, coming from the gut, and David Cameron has never
:11:00. > :11:01.found the emotional pitch in his rhetoric to meet that. I wonder
:11:02. > :11:13.whether we will see that moron Wednesday. It is just not him. I
:11:14. > :11:18.hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I hope you're right that we do
:11:19. > :11:24.actually engage on emotion. So far with UKIP, our policy has been to
:11:25. > :11:28.insult them. It does not work. I know that from my constituency. We
:11:29. > :11:31.have to say to them, there is a wider Tory family, we understand you
:11:32. > :11:37.are patria, we understand you are worried about your family, and we do
:11:38. > :11:40.the same. What does it tell us about the state of the Tories, seven
:11:41. > :11:43.months from the election, the economy is going well, they are not
:11:44. > :11:48.that far behind Labour, and yet there is all sorts of leadership
:11:49. > :11:51.speculation? It is extraordinary. They are doing well, they are in
:11:52. > :12:04.with a shout. It depends. UKIP has to be kept below 9% of. -- below
:12:05. > :12:08.9%. I think David Cameron is one of the few who speaks human, actually
:12:09. > :12:11.talks quite well to people and does not look like a swivel-eyed loons.
:12:12. > :12:16.Whereas a lot of people behind him do. You look at Duncan Smith and
:12:17. > :12:21.Eric Pickles, they are all kind of driven, ideological men, with very
:12:22. > :12:29.right-wing policies. And nice people! Don't hold back! He is not
:12:30. > :12:35.the Addams family, he is basically quite human. I think a lot of people
:12:36. > :12:38.do not realise how ideological he is himself and how well he has led his
:12:39. > :12:43.party in the direction they all want to go. You go on about him being
:12:44. > :12:47.this metropolitan moderniser, I do not think that is what he is,
:12:48. > :12:52.really. It may not be visible from the guardian offices in the
:12:53. > :12:58.metropolis! Everybody where you are, Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser.
:12:59. > :13:01.And where you are, too. That is the nature of living in London. The
:13:02. > :13:05.trouble is, when these people get into Westminster, they are part of
:13:06. > :13:11.Westminster, too. If you could only win by being an outsider, the moment
:13:12. > :13:14.you get in, you are done for. All teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson
:13:15. > :13:23.to be the next leader? I do not think so! The point of my Exocet, or
:13:24. > :13:28.lever, this morning, is that I think this is winnable. If we are good
:13:29. > :13:33.Tories for the next six months, we can do this. It is by denying ground
:13:34. > :13:39.to UKIP, not giving in to them, not buckling. Denying ground. Thank you
:13:40. > :13:42.to our panel. They did all right today, but the normal. That is your
:13:43. > :13:48.lot for today. I am back tomorrow. We will have live coverage of George
:13:49. > :13:52.Osborne's speech to the conference. I am back next week in Glasgow for
:13:53. > :13:58.The Sunday Politics at the Labour conference. How could you miss
:13:59. > :14:05.that? Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye.