:00:35. > :00:41.As evidence grows that the Russian passenger jet downed over
:00:42. > :00:45.Egypt's Sinai desert last weekend WAS the target of
:00:46. > :00:53.a terrorist attack, we look at how Moscow and the West will respond.
:00:54. > :00:59.We will have the latest from each at and Russia. -- Egypt.
:01:00. > :01:03.Are we now on the brink of an even more dangerous phase of Islamist
:01:04. > :01:07.David Cameron says he's ready to lead Britain out of the EU
:01:08. > :01:09.if he doesn't get what he wants from renegotiation,
:01:10. > :01:14.Will his list of demands result in a good deal or turn out to be
:01:15. > :01:17.And the row over a new contract for junior doctors in England
:01:18. > :01:27.Later in the programme... action,
:01:28. > :01:29.Falklands veteran Simon Weston says the delay of the report
:01:30. > :01:32.into the Iraq war is "an insult to the memories of every
:01:33. > :01:46.And with me, as always, the three journalists that help make this show
:01:47. > :01:49.the most anticipated TV event since the John Lewis Christmas advert!
:01:50. > :01:52.It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:53. > :01:54.We're not sure if they'll make you start thinking
:01:55. > :02:00.But they may well bring a tear to your eye.
:02:01. > :02:02.So, this week, we'll see what many eurosceptics and europhiles have
:02:03. > :02:05.been waiting for with all the excitement of a child thinking about
:02:06. > :02:09.their Christmas wish list, even though it's only early November.
:02:10. > :02:12.David Cameron will publish his letter to the President of the
:02:13. > :02:15.European Council setting out the "broad outlines" of what he wants
:02:16. > :02:18.to achieve from his renegotiation of Britain's EU membership.
:02:19. > :02:22.The upfront briefing from Ten Downing Street says that
:02:23. > :02:24.he'll challenge both the in and out campaigns to be more
:02:25. > :02:29.But, to assuage the eurosceptic majority in his party he'll use his
:02:30. > :02:36.strongest language yet to say that if he doesn't get what he wants,
:02:37. > :02:39.Whether they believe him is another matter.
:02:40. > :02:42.This is what Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has to say this
:02:43. > :02:46.The British people will not be fobbed off with a set of cosmetic
:02:47. > :02:51.This is about fundamental change in the direction of travel in the
:02:52. > :02:55.European Union, to make sure that it works for Britain, and that it is
:02:56. > :03:00.an effective organisation for all the citizens of Europe, driving our
:03:01. > :03:04.prosperity and competitiveness in the 21st century.
:03:05. > :03:11.If we cannot do that, then we will not be able to win a referendum.
:03:12. > :03:17.That was the Foreign Secretary. Janan Ganesh, is anything happening?
:03:18. > :03:21.There is a problem the David Cameron, the things he is most
:03:22. > :03:25.likely to get from his renegotiation are not the things that will move
:03:26. > :03:29.the average voter, so what he is likely to get our protections for
:03:30. > :03:32.non-euro countries within the EU, and that will be very technical
:03:33. > :03:38.institutional stuff, double majority voting and so forth. That is doable,
:03:39. > :03:43.the Germans don't want a fragmented EU in terms of the currency. Does
:03:44. > :03:48.your average undecided voter decide on the basis of that? I think they
:03:49. > :03:51.are more moved by free movement and immigration, maybe even economic
:03:52. > :03:55.regulation, so the things he is most likely to get may not help him in a
:03:56. > :03:59.year or 18 months' time when he is campaigning to win a referendum. You
:04:00. > :04:02.get the feeling he has delayed telling us what he is really looking
:04:03. > :04:08.for because he is bound to disappoint. Indeed, and he has to be
:04:09. > :04:12.very careful to ask for things he can get. Three of the main things he
:04:13. > :04:17.can get, but I don't think he will get the four years' delay for in
:04:18. > :04:21.work benefits, it is discriminatory and goes against the basic
:04:22. > :04:25.principles and yet he is asking again. We can only hope he has had a
:04:26. > :04:28.nod and a wink from 27 other countries that they will agree to
:04:29. > :04:33.that because if he fails to get it, it will agree to that because if he
:04:34. > :04:41.fails to get it, it'll renegotiation and it is a good package, so we will
:04:42. > :04:47.hope it is not a cavalier piece of speaking. What is your take? Philip
:04:48. > :04:50.Hammond did say some of the changes would be introduced through domestic
:04:51. > :04:54.legislation and it does look like the ban on EU migrants claiming in
:04:55. > :04:59.work benefits for four years, the Government will they would thereby
:05:00. > :05:03.codify some recent European Court judgments that have gone in favour
:05:04. > :05:06.of the UK and not embedded in treaty change, but the hard language about
:05:07. > :05:11.treaty change, the reason they are standing soaked up, is George
:05:12. > :05:15.Osborne is absolutely confident that he is going to get a treaty change
:05:16. > :05:20.agreement, protections for the Euro outs and Britain will get an opt out
:05:21. > :05:24.from an ever closer union. George Osborne's the is that the protection
:05:25. > :05:27.for the Euro outs is the most important thing he can get the
:05:28. > :05:31.benefit of Britain but he knows politically the campaign, the most
:05:32. > :05:34.important thing he has to get those migrant benefit restrictions. We
:05:35. > :05:36.will see what he says on Tuesday, that is when the speech is being
:05:37. > :05:36.made. A senior US government official is
:05:37. > :05:39.quoted today by CNN saying they are "99.9% certain" that the 224
:05:40. > :05:42.passengers aboard the Russian jet which crashed into the Sinai Desert
:05:43. > :05:45.last Saturday were the victims That's the view in London as well
:05:46. > :05:51.as Washington and now, A memorial service has been held
:05:52. > :05:59.today in the Russian city of St Petersburg, where the charter
:06:00. > :06:01.flight was heading, while Moscow draws up plans to repatriate 80,000
:06:02. > :06:04.of its holidaymakers from various locations in Egypt, after it
:06:05. > :06:08.suspended all flights there, following in the wake of Britain's
:06:09. > :06:13.decision to suspend flights from Sharm el-Sheikh where thousands of
:06:14. > :06:16.British citizens are still stranded. The downing of the flight is
:06:17. > :06:19.a tragedy for those who lost their lives, and an inconvenience
:06:20. > :06:22.for those stuck in Sharm. But its geopolitical significance
:06:23. > :06:25.will be massive if it represents the emergence of Islamic State,
:06:26. > :06:28.much better funded and organised than al-Qaeda, as a terrorist group
:06:29. > :06:49.capable of hitting targets far from In a moment, we will speak to Steve
:06:50. > :06:52.Rosenberg in St Petersburg. First, we are joined by Sally Nabil from
:06:53. > :06:58.Sharm el-Sheikh. Does the Egyptian Government Phil Borley get
:06:59. > :07:02.now? The British were the first to stop flights, the Americans followed
:07:03. > :07:08.another Russians have banned all flights to Egypt except to get
:07:09. > :07:11.people out, is it beginning to trouble the Cairo Government? The
:07:12. > :07:16.Egyptian Government seems to be in a very tight situation, from an
:07:17. > :07:20.economic perspective. Tourism is very important to the economy, it is
:07:21. > :07:24.a lifeline to the Egyptian economy, which is already in a bad shape and
:07:25. > :07:29.the tourism industry depends mainly on Russia and Britain, so the fact
:07:30. > :07:36.that no more to wrists, from Russia or Britain, will be coming to Egypt
:07:37. > :07:40.is a huge blow to tourism here and Egypt needs foreign currency and it
:07:41. > :07:43.depends on tourist spot that mainly, so it is a major blow to the
:07:44. > :07:48.industry and put the Government in a tight situation. On the other hand,
:07:49. > :07:53.the way the Egyptians have handled security in Sharm el-Sheikh airport
:07:54. > :07:55.was a matter of great concern and criticism from different countries
:07:56. > :08:00.around the world, even the tourists I have spoken to, they told us when
:08:01. > :08:04.they first arrived, the security measures were a mess, so now the
:08:05. > :08:09.measures have been tightened, some to wrists I spoke to yesterday told
:08:10. > :08:19.me it makes them feel better -- some to tourist. If the President Sese
:08:20. > :08:27.Government is feeling beleaguered in Cairo and will take another economic
:08:28. > :08:32.hit because of the tourism, can we expect further crackdown on the
:08:33. > :08:36.Sinai province terrorist groups? It is hard to tell at the moment, but
:08:37. > :08:41.the Sinai military operation has been going on for nearly two years
:08:42. > :08:50.now and every now and then, we hear about major attacks carried by
:08:51. > :08:54.mainly the IS affiliated group called the Sinai province, so the
:08:55. > :08:58.fact that the group have operated in Sinai the nearly two years, it seems
:08:59. > :09:02.the insurgency group is still gaining momentum and if it happens
:09:03. > :09:05.to be true they managed to smuggle a bomb on board the plane, it is a
:09:06. > :09:11.major blow to the security operators. Sally Nabil, thank you.
:09:12. > :09:16.Let's go to St Petersburg, we are joined by Steve Rosenberg. Is there
:09:17. > :09:20.any indication yet of how, assuming that it is shown to be a terrorist
:09:21. > :09:27.attack, any indication of how Vladimir Putin is going to respond?
:09:28. > :09:32.No, not yet. I think it is important to remember that despite the growing
:09:33. > :09:37.suspicion that this was a bomb, the official Kremlin line still is that
:09:38. > :09:40.it is keeping an open mind about this disaster, it is treating all
:09:41. > :09:46.theories equally and the Kremlin says the fact that it has suspended
:09:47. > :09:51.all flights to Egypt does not mean it favours the terror theory over
:09:52. > :09:56.any other. Having said that, if it is proven to be a bomb, then judging
:09:57. > :10:00.by the way President Putin has responded in the past to terror
:10:01. > :10:05.attacks, I think we can expect a forceful response from him. How is
:10:06. > :10:09.the domestic politics? I know it is hard to tell, because the media is
:10:10. > :10:14.so controlled by the Kremlin, but is this an opportunity for Mr Putin to
:10:15. > :10:19.further strengthen his position with a tougher crackdown, or is there
:10:20. > :10:23.their fear in the Kremlin that having casualties as a result of his
:10:24. > :10:29.war on terror will not make him very popular? It is an interesting
:10:30. > :10:33.question. I remember back in 2004, when there was a string of terror
:10:34. > :10:38.attacks on Russian soil, there were bombs in the Moscow Metro, two
:10:39. > :10:45.planes bombed out of the sky and the year ended with the school siege in
:10:46. > :10:49.Beslan, where 330 people were killed. None of that seemed to dent
:10:50. > :10:54.Vladimir Putin's popularity. Quite the opposite, he used it to
:10:55. > :10:59.strengthen the power of the Kremlin. Now, you could argue that if this
:11:00. > :11:02.doesn't prove to have been a bomb, that could undermine the narrative
:11:03. > :11:07.that the Kremlin has been pushing domestically about its military
:11:08. > :11:10.operation in Syria. In other words, Russia has been saying it has been
:11:11. > :11:17.carrying out air strikes in Syria to boost national security in Russia,
:11:18. > :11:21.to destroy terrorists so they couldn't come to Russia and kill
:11:22. > :11:25.people there, that narrative will be seriously undermined. But whether
:11:26. > :11:29.Russians would connect the dots and say, President Putin said we would
:11:30. > :11:32.be safer but we clearly are not, I don't think that would happen,
:11:33. > :11:37.because the Kremlin control so tightly the media here, particularly
:11:38. > :11:41.television, and television is the key to influencing public opinion.
:11:42. > :11:45.So if the Kremlin was to change the narrative to something more like we
:11:46. > :11:49.have been attacked, we are the victims of terror, we need to carry
:11:50. > :11:52.on our battle against international terrorism, I think the Russian
:11:53. > :11:55.public would support that and from the people I have spoken to on the
:11:56. > :12:00.streets of St Petersburg this morning, I haven't heard a word of
:12:01. > :12:05.criticism of Vladimir Putin. Most people have said to me, I understand
:12:06. > :12:08.Russia is at threat of terror attacks and they don't seem to
:12:09. > :12:13.connect what may have happened to the Russian air bus with Russia's
:12:14. > :12:17.military operation in Syria. Steve Rosenberg in St Petersburg.
:12:18. > :12:19.We're joined now by the foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall,
:12:20. > :12:21.Dr Domitilla Sagramoso, an expert in Russian security
:12:22. > :12:24.And joining us from our Plymouth studio is the
:12:25. > :12:29.He sits on the Commons Defence Committee, and is
:12:30. > :12:40.Tim Marshall, if, as the intelligence suggests, this attack
:12:41. > :12:43.was coordinated with Islamic State leaders in Iraq, and its affiliates
:12:44. > :12:49.in the Sinai called soon I province, it means Islamic State has
:12:50. > :12:54.the capability to plot mass casualty attacks outside of Syria and Iraq --
:12:55. > :12:57.called Sinai province. I think in the future, they will be able to do
:12:58. > :13:02.it globally and this is the first sign of them doing it outside of the
:13:03. > :13:07.countries they operate in. The head of the FSB came back the lead met
:13:08. > :13:12.Putin on Friday and Putin immediately set ground the planes,
:13:13. > :13:18.that shows us what they truly believe. Britain is third, it is
:13:19. > :13:31.Russia and Germany and France in the amount of tourists there. President
:13:32. > :13:36.Sisi has been to Moscow three times since he was elected. He is trying
:13:37. > :13:40.to pull Russia back from America. So it is difficult for the Egyptians
:13:41. > :13:44.and Russians to come back out to openly unsaved. So to come back to
:13:45. > :13:50.your original point, I think it is pretty clear that the Isis affiliate
:13:51. > :13:55.in Sinai swore allegiance to Isis in Iraq. They are under a lot of
:13:56. > :14:01.pressure from the Russians, 20% of the bombing was against Syria. They
:14:02. > :14:04.have told their affiliate in the Sinai, you are the ones who can do
:14:05. > :14:07.it from you do the operation, they have killed the Russians and the
:14:08. > :14:14.Russians have to respond, I agree with what the Moscow correspondent
:14:15. > :14:21.said, Putin does not respond -- not not respond, Putin responds and
:14:22. > :14:25.response with violence. Johnny Mercer, if what we are saying is
:14:26. > :14:30.true and it was a planned attack by Islamic State, it takes IS into what
:14:31. > :14:33.is called full spectrum terrorist activity and it is better financed
:14:34. > :14:39.than Al-Qaeda, it is better resourced and organised in Syria and
:14:40. > :14:44.Iraq and Osama Bin Laden ever was sitting in a cave in Afghanistan,
:14:45. > :14:52.this takes the global war on terrorism to a whole new level.
:14:53. > :14:58.This threat is existential. You can see, if this is proved to be
:14:59. > :15:02.something that has originated from so-called Islamic State, you can see
:15:03. > :15:08.their strategic region. This is why the Prime Minister has been going on
:15:09. > :15:12.about this for so long. We have to do something about so-called Islamic
:15:13. > :15:15.State because the threat will only get closer. We see this great
:15:16. > :15:24.outpouring of humanity with that little boy washed up on a beach. We
:15:25. > :15:28.have had 30 of our own terrorists massacred in Tunisia.
:15:29. > :15:32.I understand. Is the British response which the Prime Minister
:15:33. > :15:36.has not managed to get Pollard to agree to on deploying eight Tornado
:15:37. > :15:40.jets into Syria, is that really adequate given what you have called
:15:41. > :15:45.an existential threat? We need to do what we are asked to
:15:46. > :15:49.do by the coalition. It is not a question of how much manpower or
:15:50. > :15:53.machinery we are sending but the effect we can achieve on the ground.
:15:54. > :15:57.We have been asked to provide those Tornado jets because they have a
:15:58. > :16:01.specific tactical and technical capability to the coalition are
:16:02. > :16:05.asked when it comes to dynamic targeting within Syria. We should
:16:06. > :16:09.stand up to that and do our duty, and have the stomach for the fight.
:16:10. > :16:14.The idea we are asking people to do some mass bombing in Syria with no
:16:15. > :16:23.strategy, is misinformed. We should have got past this by now.
:16:24. > :16:26.What does this mean for Russia and Mr Putin?
:16:27. > :16:30.To a certain extent, this has brought the ball back to Russia. I
:16:31. > :16:36.would disagree with what the correspondent was saying, that the
:16:37. > :16:41.Russians will not be particularly affected and critical of Mr Putin's
:16:42. > :16:44.paper in the Middle East. On the one hand they understand, that is their
:16:45. > :16:55.argument that the President Assad regime needed to be faced for stock
:16:56. > :17:00.because it had fallen, then jihadists groups in Damascus and
:17:01. > :17:04.western parts of the country weather and they understand that.
:17:05. > :17:09.On the other hand, they will put brakes to any attempt to send ground
:17:10. > :17:15.troops which I think they are not planning to do either. I imagine he
:17:16. > :17:19.will have another response to the bombing.
:17:20. > :17:23.He hasn't done much, Tim Marshall. He has been bombing the other groups
:17:24. > :17:26.against President Assad. He may now extend the bombing to
:17:27. > :17:31.Islamic State. If you look at the pattern of
:17:32. > :17:37.bombing, 80% against the Free Syrian Army, it's changed on Thursday.
:17:38. > :17:41.There was an increase on bombing on Isis targets and I think you'll see
:17:42. > :17:47.more of that in coming days. There is no way the Russians will react.
:17:48. > :17:50.The Russian public, if you look at 9/11 and the reaction of the
:17:51. > :17:53.American public, lots of things have happened to lots of countries, the
:17:54. > :17:58.immediate reaction in the first weeks and months is not, our foreign
:17:59. > :18:03.policy is wrong, but revenge. The most potent of many of the human
:18:04. > :18:08.emotions. I am certain in the short term the Russian public will support
:18:09. > :18:17.more action. Your original point, Isis is in Libya, Syria,
:18:18. > :18:23.Afghanistan, Iraq, India, growing very slowly in many other countries,
:18:24. > :18:28.and it has become the poster boy for jihadists. It has replaced Al-Qaeda
:18:29. > :18:32.and with that comes money and people prepared to kill themselves.
:18:33. > :18:36.Johnny Mercer, the head of MI5 says the threat of terrorism to the UK is
:18:37. > :18:42.the highest he has seen, that was before the jet went down over the
:18:43. > :18:46.Sinai desert. We now know, we have had it independently corroborated,
:18:47. > :18:51.that I S has been using mustard gas on civilians in Aleppo, not because
:18:52. > :18:55.it is a very use to them, but as a sign, we have got it, a sign to the
:18:56. > :19:01.West. Is that a response series SATs is
:19:02. > :19:05.there a response seriously adequate to this?
:19:06. > :19:08.Until now, we have not been militarily involved as much as we
:19:09. > :19:12.should have. We are in a difficult place here, we are learning all
:19:13. > :19:16.still healing from the mistakes in the last 15 years in terms of
:19:17. > :19:21.foreign policy engagement. That can't mean we draw up the
:19:22. > :19:26.drawbridge and think the way to keep safe at home and keep our way of
:19:27. > :19:29.life is to have no strategic involvement overseas.
:19:30. > :19:34.If it is proved this is done by so-called Islamic State, it
:19:35. > :19:37.demonstrates their strategic reach and reinforces that argument that we
:19:38. > :19:41.have to do something about this threat. It is only going to come
:19:42. > :19:45.closer and it is not good enough for it to come closer, the something to
:19:46. > :19:52.happen, and afterward for us to say, we should have done this and that.
:19:53. > :19:55.We need an intelligent foreign policy such intervention strategy,
:19:56. > :20:01.this is what the banister is trying to do and we should support him.
:20:02. > :20:05.He referred to help Afghanistan and Iraq hang over this country's
:20:06. > :20:10.foreign policy and military responses. Does Afghanistan, from
:20:11. > :20:14.the Soviet era, does that hang over, is it a restraint on what the
:20:15. > :20:18.Kremlin might do today? Totally, they are aware of the risks
:20:19. > :20:24.that occurred when they intervened and the deaths and casualties in
:20:25. > :20:27.Afghanistan. One of the reasons why the Civic union became so weak and
:20:28. > :20:34.eventually led to its disintegration. There is only one
:20:35. > :20:40.other point I would like to make which people in Russia are now
:20:41. > :20:44.talking about, experts, is the fact that to a certain extent this attack
:20:45. > :20:50.was also very much targeted against Egypt. I think a lot of the focus
:20:51. > :20:54.has been on Russia. For me, it was always not very clear white Isis in
:20:55. > :21:00.Egypt in the Sinai desert was going to attack if Russian plane, and why
:21:01. > :21:02.not the people who were under the bombs?
:21:03. > :21:06.It seems very much that we should not forget the dimension that to a
:21:07. > :21:12.certain extent the Russians might not have been the initial main
:21:13. > :21:17.objective of the attack, but to have an impact on Egypt and the Egyptian
:21:18. > :21:22.tourism industry, because a country suffering the most from this attack
:21:23. > :21:26.is actually going to be Egypt. Because its economy is so weak. We
:21:27. > :21:30.had to be more careful when we analysed these groups and the
:21:31. > :21:36.connections, and not immediately assume that Isis is giving this
:21:37. > :21:38.order. I disagree with that interpretation.
:21:39. > :21:43.Tim Marshall, here is the rub at the moment. We now face this potential
:21:44. > :21:49.far wider or dangerous better resourced terrorist threat than ever
:21:50. > :21:54.before. It happens at a time when we want to get together to deal with
:21:55. > :22:00.this but the British are not bombing in Syria. Our allies America have
:22:01. > :22:04.stopped bombing, Saudi Arabia, UAE, has devoted its jets, Bahrain has
:22:05. > :22:10.not been part of anything since debris, the Saudis since September,
:22:11. > :22:15.Jordan since August. America which is half-hearted in this, is almost
:22:16. > :22:20.on its own in dealing with this now. And with a president not keen on
:22:21. > :22:25.doing this, who was pushed into it. The British situation is different.
:22:26. > :22:28.The politics of the matter, it is clear, is not in the House of
:22:29. > :22:33.Commons. The SNP, Labour, Tory rebels, will
:22:34. > :22:38.vote it down. We were talking earlier, because of a rock, we are
:22:39. > :22:50.not going to do without Parliamentary vote. -- Iraq.
:22:51. > :22:54.The French are putting their aircraft carrier back into the Gulf.
:22:55. > :22:56.It was that the two months and they are selling it back from another
:22:57. > :23:02.operation. At the request of the Americans. In
:23:03. > :23:07.2007, since then, the Americans do not have a carrier in the Gulf.
:23:08. > :23:17.The Tornado jets would make a difference. To say, we as a culture
:23:18. > :23:20.with commonalities in our belief systems, we are standing together.
:23:21. > :23:28.At the moment, they are not. We will leave it there.
:23:29. > :23:31.The uneasy truce between supporters of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn
:23:32. > :23:34.and the majority of Labour MPs is under renewed strain this week.
:23:35. > :23:37.First, MPs from the right of the party swept the board
:23:38. > :23:40.at elections for posts that will give them a role in making policy.
:23:41. > :23:43.Then Mr Corbyn's senior policy adviser, a young man called
:23:44. > :23:45.Andrew Fisher, was suspended from the party, apparently after Blairite
:23:46. > :23:48.MPs complained he had backed an anarchist at the general election
:23:49. > :23:57.We already know that at least one MP wants to trigger
:23:58. > :24:01.a leadership election if next May's election results are underwhelming.
:24:02. > :24:04.But, if there is a contest, how would it work, and what hurdles
:24:05. > :24:06.would face Mr Corbyn and his potential challengers?
:24:07. > :24:09.Giles has been delving into the Labour Party rule book.
:24:10. > :24:18.Be warned, there is flash photography in his film.
:24:19. > :24:21.That some Labour MPs did not and do not want Jeremy Corbyn
:24:22. > :24:27.That there are internal tensions between some MPs and Jeremy Corbyn's
:24:28. > :24:37.That Labour has not removed a sitting leader since 1935 is a fact.
:24:38. > :24:40.And that Jeremy Corbyn won the ballot to become leader with
:24:41. > :24:48.a whisker off 60% of the vote is also a fact.
:24:49. > :24:52.What is surprising about these facts is that it's Jeremy Corbyn's team
:24:53. > :24:55.themselves who are very keen to see the rules surrounding any challenge
:24:56. > :25:02.Because, when it comes to the rule book, the mechanism for such
:25:03. > :25:11.It starts well enough with chapter four, clause two, B, two:
:25:12. > :25:23.The wording of this clause is, in fact, already out-of-date as
:25:24. > :25:29.of last conference, as any MP who can get 20% of support from
:25:30. > :25:32.Labour Parliamentarians, that's MPs and now MEPs which, as of now means
:25:33. > :25:38.Whether there is anyone who could do that at the moment is
:25:39. > :25:42.a very moot point, however much some might wish there was.
:25:43. > :25:45.If they get them, they then write to the Party General Secretary, and
:25:46. > :25:54.Then Labour's National Executive Committee decides the timetable and
:25:55. > :26:00.The problem is, nowhere in the rules is it specified what happens next.
:26:01. > :26:02.It seems, within party circles, depending on their views,
:26:03. > :26:13.The challenger or challengers are put on the ballot with
:26:14. > :26:20.But the incumbent leader then needs 15% of Labour Parliamentarians to
:26:21. > :26:31.nominate them so they too appear on it.
:26:32. > :26:37.He is not popular inside the PLP, that is very clear.
:26:38. > :26:39.So, if he's not going to go through automatically,
:26:40. > :26:42.he has to knock on doors and get people to sign the form.
:26:43. > :26:47.The challenger is on the ballot, others may also seek 20% nomination
:26:48. > :27:00.threshold, and they too appear, but the leader is automatically included
:27:01. > :27:02.The idea, the incumbent, somebody with 60% of the electorate in the
:27:03. > :27:06.Labour Party, might not be on the ballot paper, yet someone at best
:27:07. > :27:08.on the fringes of the Labour Party could be, is obviously unthinkable.
:27:09. > :27:14.Only the named challenger goes forward
:27:15. > :27:17.with their 20% nomination, and it is a straight binary head-to-head with
:27:18. > :27:22.the leader who again is automatically in the contest.
:27:23. > :27:29.Mr Corbyn might need more protective gear from scenario one and two, but
:27:30. > :27:33.this programme understands option three is what the current leader's
:27:34. > :27:38.team and the party solicitor think is the correct interpretation.
:27:39. > :27:41.Of course, any talk of leadership challenges
:27:42. > :27:46.might well upset the 60% of those who clearly wanted Jeremy Corbyn to
:27:47. > :27:50.not only lead the party but lead it into the 2020 general election.
:27:51. > :27:55.This wouldn't happen in any other organisation where you
:27:56. > :27:57.have a new CEO judged on metrics that happened in the
:27:58. > :28:03.Let us give him a bit more time before we start mounting challenges
:28:04. > :28:06.or talking about challenges, because he does have an overwhelming mandate
:28:07. > :28:11.Nonetheless, in bars and offices across Westminster, some Labour MPs
:28:12. > :28:16.are thinking into the night how they can stop Jeremy Corbyn.
:28:17. > :28:20.And some have no desire to remove him,
:28:21. > :28:26.but think the idea of challenging any leader is important as an idea.
:28:27. > :28:29.As a historian, I realise the Labour Party has a major problem
:28:30. > :28:38.And I want a situation where it can say
:28:39. > :28:41.they are not doing a decent job, and therefore they have got to go.
:28:42. > :28:49.Because if he had won, he's there for two or three years.
:28:50. > :28:51.So, if the rules were clarified, would it make
:28:52. > :28:57.I can't see it happening for a very long time.
:28:58. > :29:00.At the moment, the only way to be able to get rid
:29:01. > :29:03.of Jeremy Corbyn, if that is what you want, is to convince people he
:29:04. > :29:10.I see absolutely no evidence of that happening at all.
:29:11. > :29:19.Of course that doesn't mean someone won't try.
:29:20. > :29:27.Pole, even if the Parliamentary party had the stomach for a coup
:29:28. > :29:30.against Mr Corbyn, it would result in civil war within the party
:29:31. > :29:32.because the next election would go back to the same electorate that
:29:33. > :29:46.elected Mr Corbin? could happen but if he was an
:29:47. > :29:50.absolute disaster, losing by-elections, and by disaster,
:29:51. > :29:54.significantly worse than Ed Miliband's results. After all,
:29:55. > :29:58.Labour doesn't get rid of its leaders. Until something of that
:29:59. > :30:01.kind happens, where you have a really persuasive argument that
:30:02. > :30:06.there is not a hope in hell of him winning the next election, that
:30:07. > :30:11.might bring the party round, but any rebels had to bring enough up the
:30:12. > :30:16.party round to say, look, winning is what really matters and this guy
:30:17. > :30:22.isn't going to win for us. Are there people talking, plotting coup is
:30:23. > :30:26.already? Of course, the counterrevolutionaries, and they are
:30:27. > :30:31.delighted with themselves in the PLP, they have a serious of
:30:32. > :30:34.modernisers who have been elected to the chairmanship of these committees
:30:35. > :30:41.-- a series of modernisers. 10% of them visited bag of loot voted for
:30:42. > :30:45.this candle. The problem is, they have the power to trigger a
:30:46. > :30:51.leadership contest but do not have the power to decide the contest,
:30:52. > :30:54.that will be for the people who overwhelmingly voted for Mr Corbyn
:30:55. > :31:00.and I agree, it will take up catastrophic meltdown over the next
:31:01. > :31:03.year to get the contest taking place, but even if you had that
:31:04. > :31:06.contest, I still think you will find, because he has only been there
:31:07. > :31:12.a year, his supporters will say it is not our fault, give him more time
:31:13. > :31:15.and you will find even in those circumstances, Jeremy Corbyn or
:31:16. > :31:20.Jeremy Corbyn person would win. Mr Corbyn does sometimes create
:31:21. > :31:24.unnecessary problems for himself. Let me show you this clip from
:31:25. > :31:28.Andrew Fisher, he was a political adviser to Mr Corbyn. He has been
:31:29. > :31:30.suspended from the party but he is still working for the Labour
:31:31. > :31:33.leader. One of its problems is this is what he had to say.
:31:34. > :31:36.I had the most excruciating half-hour of my life where I was
:31:37. > :31:39.I sometimes have nightmares, very violent, bloody nightmares
:31:40. > :31:45.But it was excruciating and he said, look, we got to explain to people
:31:46. > :31:48.there is more to life than moving from the bedroom to the sofa.
:31:49. > :31:51.That was his attitude towards people who are unemployed.
:31:52. > :31:55.For this plummy accented, Oxbridge-educated Tory
:31:56. > :31:58.in a red rosette, frankly, to be saying that, was the most
:31:59. > :32:09.It took every sinew of my self-discipline not to thump him.
:32:10. > :32:17.Though Mr Fischer is no stranger to defend himself, having called other
:32:18. > :32:21.Labour members vile gits and scumbags. You wonder why Mr Corbyn
:32:22. > :32:24.feels he needs someone like this. And if you think Mr Corbyn is trying
:32:25. > :32:32.to prevent an internal push against himself, why he would making the
:32:33. > :32:35.late make several of the personnel decisions he has -- why he would be
:32:36. > :32:39.making several other personnel decisions. If you are hoping to get
:32:40. > :32:41.him out, your hub would have to be that the new members that have
:32:42. > :32:45.changed the composition of the Labour Party are not hardened,
:32:46. > :32:49.militia style activists that will defend him to the last ditch, but
:32:50. > :32:53.are dreamers and kids who got excited over the summer and will
:32:54. > :32:56.break away in the coming years and will realise that internal party
:32:57. > :33:01.warfare means turning up to tedious meetings on a wet Thursday night and
:33:02. > :33:05.they will not be there to protect him in the worst instances. I think
:33:06. > :33:08.Polly is right, he won't go unless he is an obvious disaster, but I
:33:09. > :33:13.don't think he will come across as an obvious disaster until the spring
:33:14. > :33:19.of 2020, by which time it is too late and Labour have already lost
:33:20. > :33:21.the last of the late next election. -- lost the next election.
:33:22. > :33:24.It's coming up to one o'clock, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:33:25. > :33:32.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:33:33. > :33:35.Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:33:36. > :33:39.The Falklands veteran, Simon Weston, says the delay the publication
:33:40. > :33:42.of the report the Iraq war is "an insult."
:33:43. > :33:49.The former Children's Commissioner, Keith Towler, says commissioners
:33:50. > :33:52.should be appointed by the Assembly, not the Welsh government.
:33:53. > :33:54.And in the devolution debate, the draft Wales Bill has been
:33:55. > :33:59.But what's been happening with the Scotland Bill?
:34:00. > :34:02.But first, Wales has been observing Remembrance Sunday.
:34:03. > :34:05.The First Minister, Carwyn Jones, and the Welsh Secretary,
:34:06. > :34:08.Stephen Crabb, were at the Remembrance Service
:34:09. > :34:12.at the Wales National War Memorial in Alexandra Gardens in Cardiff.
:34:13. > :34:20.The First Minister said marking the occasion was hugely important.
:34:21. > :34:23.It's encouraging to see that more and more people coming every year.
:34:24. > :34:27.We know how important it is, not just to remember those who've
:34:28. > :34:30.fallen in conflicts past, but to remember those who are still
:34:31. > :34:37.We no longer have any serving soldiers from the First World War,
:34:38. > :34:39.there is unfortunately a dwindling number of those who have
:34:40. > :34:44.As those who fought fade away, how important is it that
:34:45. > :34:52.Last year I was here for the final gathering of the Normandy Veterans.
:34:53. > :34:55.They are now getting on and decided last year would be
:34:56. > :35:01.But it is absolutely crucial that as the people fade away,
:35:02. > :35:05.Mr Jones also said more needed to be done to care
:35:06. > :35:08.for former soldiers injured in battle, and believes this is one
:35:09. > :35:12.of the areas where the Welsh and UK governments work well together.
:35:13. > :35:16.We have the Armed Forces Covenant, the Military Covenant which is made
:35:17. > :35:19.by governments and devolved administrations to do everything we
:35:20. > :35:23.can to support Armed Forces and their families, through housing and
:35:24. > :35:25.making sure that where treatment is necessary,
:35:26. > :35:30.I think it's a very good example of the different layers of government
:35:31. > :35:35.It's one that is completely free of politics and conflict,
:35:36. > :35:40.but we need to do more to make sure that more service men and women
:35:41. > :35:51.Well, one of the UK's most prominent
:35:52. > :35:53.Armed Forces veterans is Simon Weston.
:35:54. > :35:56.The former Welsh Guards soldier was aboard the Sir Galahad when it was
:35:57. > :35:59.destroyed at Bluff Cove during the Falklands conflict in 1982.
:36:00. > :36:01.He suffered burns to 46% of his body and went
:36:02. > :36:05.But, as a survivor, he considers himself one of the lucky ones.
:36:06. > :36:09.Out of his platoon of 30 men, 22 were killed during the attacks.
:36:10. > :36:11.Since then, Weston has spent his time collecting
:36:12. > :36:14.money and raising awareness to burns victims and war veterans.
:36:15. > :36:17.Now, he's turning his attention to mental health issues.
:36:18. > :36:20.He suffered from depression and drank heavily
:36:21. > :36:25.But before we spoke about that, I wanted his views on the
:36:26. > :36:30.Chilcott Enquiry into the Iraq war, which he opposed strongly, in 2003.
:36:31. > :36:34.I think the Chilcott Enquiry has been one
:36:35. > :36:40.of the worst episodes of political interference for any enquiry.
:36:41. > :36:42.I think it's an insult to the memories
:36:43. > :36:47.Every single family that suffered because of the injury and because
:36:48. > :36:50.of the death of their loved ones over there.
:36:51. > :36:54.I think it's been one of the most horrendous episodes
:36:55. > :36:57.of moral ineptitude that I've seen for a long, long time.
:36:58. > :37:02.Possibly in my lifetime, possibly the worst I would experience.
:37:03. > :37:09.But I just think it's been horrendous.
:37:10. > :37:12.I think whether Mr Chilcott can look at
:37:13. > :37:16.himself in the mirror in the morning and not feel ashamed, I don't know.
:37:17. > :37:21.You're somebody who is very well known about standing up
:37:22. > :37:24.for the rights of serving personnel and former serving personnel.
:37:25. > :37:27.But now you're also turning your attention to mental health issues.
:37:28. > :37:35.Well, mental health is a lot to do with service.
:37:36. > :37:38.It has huge resonance for a lot of people who served.
:37:39. > :37:43.There's a lot of people in prison from the ex-service community
:37:44. > :37:54.Now, whether that alcoholism or whether it's PTSD, or
:37:55. > :38:00.whether its other issues surrounding their service, we can't fully know.
:38:01. > :38:03.Because your access is limited and the charity that I set up with
:38:04. > :38:06.the comedian, Jim Davidson, to look into all of this and help these guys
:38:07. > :38:11.get back on the straight and narrow, we only have a limited resorts.
:38:12. > :38:15.So, we can't do a full blown investigation for ourselves.
:38:16. > :38:18.But we do think it's something that should be looked at.
:38:19. > :38:21.I do think that there are many different interventions
:38:22. > :38:27.We do need psychiatrists and psychologists and medical
:38:28. > :38:32.We do need people to be segregated from mainstream society
:38:33. > :38:36.for everybody's safety, including the person who is the problem.
:38:37. > :38:39.But I do think that it's not always the domain of the
:38:40. > :38:44.If you're feeling down, some people go for a run.
:38:45. > :38:52.And that gets the ills and the woes of their life sorted
:38:53. > :38:59.Maybe it's group therapy, maybe it's talking therapy.
:39:00. > :39:02.It's being involved with the right people
:39:03. > :39:07.On a Welsh Government and UK Government basis,
:39:08. > :39:10.is enough being done, do you think, to address all these problems that
:39:11. > :39:16.I think one of the biggest problems we had was we got rid
:39:17. > :39:23.We had them, and we then put everybody into the community.
:39:24. > :39:29.And for some it was absolutely the right thing to do,
:39:30. > :39:32.they should never have been put into hospitals in the first place.
:39:33. > :39:36.But I do think for some people, a hospital is a better environment.
:39:37. > :39:40.I know it costs, but isn't the fact that those people are in a place
:39:41. > :39:43.where they can be cared for properly more important than leaving them to
:39:44. > :39:51.Where they can become victims and we hear too often
:39:52. > :39:59.What they're talking about is people that can't actually
:40:00. > :40:02.think straight and have issues, and they need support.
:40:03. > :40:05.But if they're in a community where they get lost and there's not enough
:40:06. > :40:09.money or resources to find them and keep them safe, then they'll be
:40:10. > :40:14.How that use and abuse will take place
:40:15. > :40:21.This is a much bigger issue when you are talking about all the different
:40:22. > :40:33.But, for me, the biggest problem for me personally and viewpoint
:40:34. > :40:36.that I talk about mostly is depression and PTSD because there
:40:37. > :40:40.And I'm very fortunate that I've come through them and I am
:40:41. > :40:44.as confident as I am and I'm able to talk about it and I
:40:45. > :40:46.don't feel embarrassed about talking about those things.
:40:47. > :40:50.Because mental health should not be seen as a weakness.
:40:51. > :40:55.It should not be seen as few weeks, you are frail,
:40:56. > :40:57.you are lesser than the other person.
:40:58. > :41:01.Because it's the domain of a lot of people.
:41:02. > :41:04.And given the overall economic situation where we are talking about
:41:05. > :41:08.cuts to public services, do you fear that this isn't the right time to be
:41:09. > :41:12.expecting more money to be spent on mental health issues because the
:41:13. > :41:16."Where's the money going to come from?"
:41:17. > :41:20.I'm not a politician and I don't have the purse strings.
:41:21. > :41:23.But I don't think any further cuts to the mental health
:41:24. > :41:31.That's a fact because they've been cut to the bone anyway.
:41:32. > :41:35.So, to take any more out of it would leave even more vulnerable
:41:36. > :41:40.people more vulnerable again to whatever they may fall prey to.
:41:41. > :41:43.Whether that be society, individuals, whatever that may be.
:41:44. > :41:47.But we shouldn't cut any more out of that particular arena.
:41:48. > :41:50.What we should be looking at is possibly finding better ways
:41:51. > :41:54.to invest in the mental health services and
:41:55. > :42:03.It would be a conversation worth having
:42:04. > :42:14.Because I think that we can do things away
:42:15. > :42:17.from the prescribed arenas where doctors and psychologists have to
:42:18. > :42:23.But the human cost is even bigger, and even more tragic.
:42:24. > :42:30.One life left in despair is one life to many.
:42:31. > :42:35.And we shouldn't abandon people and we shouldn't see them
:42:36. > :42:39.as being less people because they mental health issues.
:42:40. > :42:41.We should be looking for different aspects.
:42:42. > :42:54.I got to experience a lot of these things
:42:55. > :42:58.And I came through it, and I came through it largely
:42:59. > :43:03.She takes great credit, or she should take great credit,
:43:04. > :43:08.But I learned so much from my mother's experiences
:43:09. > :43:13.as a clinician, and she made a huge different in one person's life.
:43:14. > :43:20.And if one person can do that in what you are exposed to
:43:21. > :43:24.in the way of decency, kindness and the excellence of her skills,
:43:25. > :43:32.My mother didn't do anything in the way of psychiatry.
:43:33. > :43:35.She didn't sit me down and say, "Right, what are your problems?"
:43:36. > :43:39.She sat me down and talked to me in a way that made me the man I am.
:43:40. > :43:48.And I think my experiences are born out of genuine love.
:43:49. > :43:52.And the experience I have from my mother.
:43:53. > :43:55.So, if we're going to learn anything,
:43:56. > :43:57.it is from experience the best learn it.
:43:58. > :44:00.And I certainly think that I have something to offer in that regard.
:44:01. > :44:07.Earlier this week, the announcement that
:44:08. > :44:10.a former Labour government adviser and councillor had been appointed as
:44:11. > :44:15.the Future Generations Commissioner caused a stir in Cardiff Bay.
:44:16. > :44:18.It also put a spotlight on the growing number
:44:19. > :44:21.of Commissioner positions created by the Welsh government.
:44:22. > :44:24.Our reporter, Bethan Lewis, has been hearing the views
:44:25. > :44:28.of the former former Children's Commissioner, Keith Towler.
:44:29. > :44:32.Sophie Howe was this week introduced as the
:44:33. > :44:38.And she's got a big job to do over her seven-year term.
:44:39. > :44:42.The Commissioner's responsibilities include to be a guardian
:44:43. > :44:45.for the ability of future generations to meet their needs, and
:44:46. > :44:48.to encourage public bodies to take greater account of the long-term
:44:49. > :44:59.The commissioner will be supported by up to 18 staff, and will have
:45:00. > :45:05.In Cardiff Bay, some are unhappy about her links to the Labour Party.
:45:06. > :45:09.The government say she was selected by a panel,
:45:10. > :45:12.including Assembly Members from all parties, before she was formally
:45:13. > :45:17.The Future Generations Champion joins other Commissioners,
:45:18. > :45:21.responsible for children, the Welsh language and older people.
:45:22. > :45:24.Appointed in 2008, Keith Towler was Children's Commissioner
:45:25. > :45:29.What does he make of this week's row?
:45:30. > :45:32.Firstly, I feel disappointed that that kind
:45:33. > :45:38.I also feel a great deal of sympathy for Sophie.
:45:39. > :45:45.None of this is of her making, but it is about, I think, legitimate
:45:46. > :45:50.questions that are asked about the independence of Commissioners.
:45:51. > :45:55.I've always taken the view, as the Children's Commissioner,
:45:56. > :45:59.but in relation to all of the Commissioners, that the
:46:00. > :46:03.accountability and the appointment of Commissioners should be done by
:46:04. > :46:05.the National Assembly for Wales, and not by the Welsh government.
:46:06. > :46:08.The Welsh government never interfered in any of the work that I
:46:09. > :46:13.They never tried to coerce me or influence me to do things that I
:46:14. > :46:16.didn't think were in the right interests of children or people.
:46:17. > :46:21.But, nevertheless, I think the accountability
:46:22. > :46:24.and appointment procedures raise questions when the accountability is
:46:25. > :46:27.not to the people through our National Assembly for Wales.
:46:28. > :46:33.But the Welsh government have said that the candidate was selected
:46:34. > :46:36.by a panel of cross-party Assembly Members and that person was
:46:37. > :46:44.But, nevertheless, the First Minister still has that veto
:46:45. > :46:50.When he was Children's Commissioner, and now,
:46:51. > :46:53.Keith Towler thinks a set of United Nations principles for roles such as
:46:54. > :47:00.It emphasises the need to be independent of government.
:47:01. > :47:03.Always at the back of my mind, I kept thinking about those UN
:47:04. > :47:06.principles about independent institutions and I
:47:07. > :47:14.knew that, actually, I wasn't properly independent because
:47:15. > :47:20.It's not about government First Minister or ministers acting
:47:21. > :47:25.inappropriately with Commissioners, not in my experience.
:47:26. > :47:27.But the process and the system is in the wrong place.
:47:28. > :47:30.The other issue that the appointment of the Future Generations
:47:31. > :47:32.Commissioner has raised is the issue of links with political parties.
:47:33. > :47:41.I don't think anybody who has served as an Assembly Member or a member of
:47:42. > :47:43.a parliament should be a Commissioner.
:47:44. > :47:46.I think when you apply to be the Commissioner, if you are
:47:47. > :47:48.a member of a political party, you should resign that membership
:47:49. > :47:59.It should be absolutely clear that your political affiliation
:48:00. > :48:03.If they do, your position is compromised.
:48:04. > :48:09.When it comes to political links, the Welsh government says
:48:10. > :48:11.Commissioners can declare political affiliations.
:48:12. > :48:16.But they don't have too resigned membership of parties.
:48:17. > :48:19.But the former Commissioner thinks change is needed to help people
:48:20. > :48:21.in these key roles to get on with the job.
:48:22. > :48:24.The focus has to be about ensuring that whoever gets appointed to those
:48:25. > :48:29.roles is able to do the best job they can without political discourse
:48:30. > :48:33.These jobs are hard enough as they are without having all
:48:34. > :48:44.The Future Generations Commissioner hasn't started her role yet,
:48:45. > :48:47.and it's unfair on her right now for this to be happening
:48:48. > :48:56.In recent weeks, First Minister Carwyn Jones and Welsh Secretary
:48:57. > :48:59.Stephen Crabb have been at loggerheads over the UK Government's
:49:00. > :49:05.Tomorrow the draft Wales Bill is being scrutinised by AMs and MPs
:49:06. > :49:13.In the meantime, at Westminster, the Scotland Bill and the
:49:14. > :49:15.UK Government's response to the Scottish independence referendum
:49:16. > :49:18.is expected to complete its journey through the Commons.
:49:19. > :49:25.Here's our correspondent, David Cornock.
:49:26. > :49:28.There is some flash photography in his report.
:49:29. > :49:32.The Scots rejected independence after a pledge
:49:33. > :49:37.A vow the only one still in his job promised to implement the
:49:38. > :49:41.So, now it is time for our United Kingdom to come together
:49:42. > :49:48.A vital part of that will be a balanced settlement
:49:49. > :49:52.fair to people in Scotland and, importantly, to everyone in England,
:49:53. > :49:58.Just as the people of Scotland will have more power over their affairs,
:49:59. > :50:04.so it follows that the people of England, Wales and Northern Ireland
:50:05. > :50:15.The Smith Commission suggests that Holyrood be given
:50:16. > :50:18.the power to set income tax rates and bands, and keep the proceeds,
:50:19. > :50:25.and the power to create new benefits in devolved areas
:50:26. > :50:28.and make discretionary payments in all welfare areas.
:50:29. > :50:31.So, the Scottish Government could compensate those hit by
:50:32. > :50:39.One year after the Smith Commission reported,
:50:40. > :50:44.Here's a flavour of the exchanges during the most recent
:50:45. > :50:46.Scottish Question Time at Westminster.
:50:47. > :50:50.The powers that are being delivered to the Scottish Parliament will make
:50:51. > :50:59.it the most powerful devolved parliament in the world.
:51:00. > :51:01.But rather than tell us what they'll do with those powers,
:51:02. > :51:06.The SNP, who won all but three of Scotland's's 59 seats last May,
:51:07. > :51:10.Only 9% of people in Scotland believe that
:51:11. > :51:17.So, unsurprisingly, the government is now having to accept amendments.
:51:18. > :51:22.Labour's Scotland spokesman, better known as the MP for Caerphilly,
:51:23. > :51:28.is happy that Holyrood will now have the power to compensate those
:51:29. > :51:41.One of the main things the government
:51:42. > :51:44.has brought forward a mechanism where by the Scottish Parliament can
:51:45. > :51:47.That's very important because the Scottish Parliament, under
:51:48. > :51:50.Labour's certainty, will want to compensate people for the money they
:51:51. > :51:54.Wouldn't you like to see the Welsh Assembly have those powers?
:51:55. > :51:56.No, because Wales is very different to Scotland.
:51:57. > :51:58.I think what is absolutely fundamental is the fact that,
:51:59. > :52:00.relatively speaking, Scotland is better off than Wales.
:52:01. > :52:03.We are very reluctant to accept any measures which the government would
:52:04. > :52:08.We want to see a prosperous nation in Wales, not the poorer one.
:52:09. > :52:11.But Plaid Cymru say what's good enough for the Scots is
:52:12. > :52:15.Of course, the comparison with what Scotland
:52:16. > :52:20.Although, perhaps, people feel that we are looking
:52:21. > :52:23.at Wales rather than Scotland, none the less that is what devolution is
:52:24. > :52:28.Well, why shouldn't it be the same in Wales as well?
:52:29. > :52:31.Why shouldn't we be as capable as the Parliament of Scotland
:52:32. > :52:34.Despite the arguments about the details, the Scotland Bill
:52:35. > :52:38.It should clear the House of Commons within days.
:52:39. > :52:41.The draft Wales Bill, on the other hand, it's still very much a draft.
:52:42. > :52:49.The UK Government hope it can secure a cross-party consensus behind it
:52:50. > :52:59.Tomorrow, MPs and AMs will join forces in the Senedd for a whole
:53:00. > :53:01.day's pre-legislative scrutiny of the draft bill, taking evidence
:53:02. > :53:08.There's still a few tickets left for what could be
:53:09. > :53:13.That report was from our Parliamentary Correspondent,
:53:14. > :53:19.Don't forget to check out his blog on BBC Wales politics online.
:53:20. > :53:21.And we'll be providing comprehensive coverage of tomorrow's committee
:53:22. > :53:23.hearings on the draft Wales Bill across our TV, radio,
:53:24. > :53:32.My thanks to Bob Stewart and to Stephen Pound and, with that,
:53:33. > :53:39.The row between junior doctors and Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has
:53:40. > :53:43.The disagreement centres around a proposed new contract
:53:44. > :53:48.The Government says the existing arrangements are outdated
:53:49. > :53:51.and claims the move will help deliver the Conservative manifesto
:53:52. > :53:56.The British Medical Association, representing junior doctors, says
:53:57. > :53:59.the changes will result in working practices that are unsafe and unfair
:54:00. > :54:06.Any industrial action could involve a walk-out from all
:54:07. > :54:09.but emergency work, in what is likely to be the biggest
:54:10. > :54:15.Well, the Labour Party has called on Mr Hunt to scrap his plans,
:54:16. > :54:23.and the Shadow Health Secretary Heidi Alexander joins us now.
:54:24. > :54:29.Welcome to the programme. Is the Labour Party in favour of the
:54:30. > :54:34.concept of a 7 day a week Health Service? We are but I think you need
:54:35. > :54:37.to understand the barriers that exist in order to provide that
:54:38. > :54:42.service. Jeremy Hunt the Health Secretary has
:54:43. > :54:46.implied that if you change the junior doctors's contract, then in
:54:47. > :54:52.some way that automatically means you have a 7 day NHS. It doesn't.
:54:53. > :54:56.You don't just need junior doctors. They are already working weekends
:54:57. > :55:02.and nights. You need consultant cover, diagnostics support,
:55:03. > :55:06.pharmacists, 24/7 social care. If Jeremy Hunt isn't being honest
:55:07. > :55:13.about the resources he would put in to deliver that 24/7 NHS, then
:55:14. > :55:16.picking a fight with junior doctors which is what he seems determined to
:55:17. > :55:24.do at the moment, will not provide the solution he said it will.
:55:25. > :55:31.If you wanted a proper 7-day-a-week NHS, would you also had to change
:55:32. > :55:35.the junior doctors's contract? I'm not totally convinced that
:55:36. > :55:38.changing their contracts will actually result in more junior
:55:39. > :55:43.doctors being available on the ward. There are some things that should
:55:44. > :55:47.probably... You have said the existing contract
:55:48. > :55:51.is not perfect, do you need to change it in some ways for seven day
:55:52. > :55:55.cover? Along with the things you mentioned. If you listened to what
:55:56. > :56:00.hospital bosses and chief executive say, they are saying very clearly
:56:01. > :56:03.that the junior doctor contract is not the main issue here.
:56:04. > :56:08.There are other things that would need to change. One of the things
:56:09. > :56:11.that really concerns junior doctors is that the proposals that seemed to
:56:12. > :56:15.be on the table at the moment are bad for patient safety, and they are
:56:16. > :56:32.not convinced that the proposals will result in them not working even
:56:33. > :56:35.more excessive and exhausting hours than they at the moment.
:56:36. > :56:37.The contract at the moment has financial penalties built into it
:56:38. > :56:39.which means, if a hospital forces junior doctors to work very long
:56:40. > :56:41.hours, then that hospital is financially penalised. And that
:56:42. > :56:43.system, whilst it may not be perfect, has the broad confidence of
:56:44. > :56:46.junior doctors, and they are very worried this proposal that has come
:56:47. > :56:50.forward in the last couple of days, even though negotiations have been
:56:51. > :56:54.going on for years, will compromise patient safety.
:56:55. > :56:58.Was the BMA right to begin a strike ballot without sitting down with
:56:59. > :57:03.Jeremy Hunt over the new offer? I think the BMA and junior doctors
:57:04. > :57:07.feel that they have been backed into a corner because of the way that
:57:08. > :57:11.Jeremy Hunt has handled these negotiations.
:57:12. > :57:16.He started off by saying that the BMA and junior doctors would have
:57:17. > :57:20.two agreed to 22 out of 23 preconditions laid down by the
:57:21. > :57:23.doctors and dentists's remuneration board.
:57:24. > :57:28.He went on to imply, which has angered Junor doctors even more, if
:57:29. > :57:34.you change this contract it will somehow result in lives being saved.
:57:35. > :57:38.And then we have a situation on Wednesday, 24 hours before the
:57:39. > :57:43.ballot of junior doctors is due to start, that he decides the best way
:57:44. > :57:47.to conduct negotiations is to issue a press release from the Department
:57:48. > :57:53.of Health. And that is the best way to conduct negotiations.
:57:54. > :57:59.He has been talking to the BMA since 2012, this is not a new problem.
:58:00. > :58:04.He has made an 11% pay offer. He said other than the few already
:58:05. > :58:07.working illegal hours, less than 1% would see come would lose some pain
:58:08. > :58:13.but that is because they would not be working as much. 75% would get a
:58:14. > :58:18.rise, is that not something worth talking about?
:58:19. > :58:23.A lot of this is spent, Andrew. How do you know?
:58:24. > :58:28.The 11% pay offer applies to a proportion of the junior doctors's
:58:29. > :58:32.contract, the other proportion of their wage will actually be going
:58:33. > :58:39.down. So, you cannot say that this is an 11% pay rise. Let me finish
:58:40. > :58:43.this point. How do you know if you don't sit around negotiations?
:58:44. > :58:47.Listen to Jeremy Hunt, he is saying the overall pay envelope for junior
:58:48. > :58:51.doctors will remain broadly the same. How can it possibly be an 11%
:58:52. > :58:56.pay rise? A rise in the basic and they will do
:58:57. > :58:59.less overtime, less hours would count as overtime.
:59:00. > :59:04.It is cogitated as it may be the junior doctors will think this does
:59:05. > :59:08.not take us forward. Don't they owe it to those of us who
:59:09. > :59:13.pay their salaries, the people who use the NHS, to sit down with Mr
:59:14. > :59:18.Hunt and go through it? I think they have tried but the way in which the
:59:19. > :59:19.Health Secretary has handled these negotiations has been absolutely
:59:20. > :59:24.appalling. Take the example of this. On
:59:25. > :59:29.Wednesday, again, 24 hours before the ballot opens, it is the first
:59:30. > :59:34.time that the Health Secretary says that the Care Quality Commission are
:59:35. > :59:39.going to be involved in monitoring the hours of junior doctors. Why
:59:40. > :59:43.didn't we hear that two months ago? Why did we hear that six months ago?
:59:44. > :59:47.This is the Care Quality Commission... If you were a junior
:59:48. > :59:50.doctor, would you vote for strike action?
:59:51. > :59:56.I am not a junior doctor, it is not for me as a politician to sit in a
:59:57. > :59:58.TV studio on a Sunday afternoon and tell junior doctors how they should
:59:59. > :00:10.vote in a ballot. I am not going If they do vote for strike action,
:00:11. > :00:14.will the Labour Party support them? I am not going to prejudge the
:00:15. > :00:18.outcome of the ballot. You have come on and argued the junior doctors'
:00:19. > :00:22.case, with knowledge and some eloquence, so if they vote for
:00:23. > :00:27.strike action, why, given everything you have said, would you not support
:00:28. > :00:32.them? Jeremy Hunt can avoid a strike tomorrow if he avoids the threat of
:00:33. > :00:40.contract imposition. I will ask Jeremy Hunt when I speak to him.
:00:41. > :00:43.Would you, if they vote for strike action, will the Labour Party
:00:44. > :00:47.support them? It is a simple question. I will be happy to come
:00:48. > :00:50.back and speak to you in a couple of weeks, but I am not going to
:00:51. > :00:57.prejudge the outcome of a democratic process that is currently under way.
:00:58. > :01:01.The Government in a mess or other junior doctors chancing their arm?
:01:02. > :01:03.It is interesting, it is where is where those two Conservative
:01:04. > :01:08.manifesto commitments made, the seven-day NHS and the other thing,
:01:09. > :01:12.the ?22 billion of efficiency savings in the NHS to meet the ?30
:01:13. > :01:17.billion funding gap. What is interesting is if there is pain
:01:18. > :01:21.here, imagine what it will be like in other areas of the public
:01:22. > :01:25.services. The NHS is protected, it has a ring fenced budget that rises
:01:26. > :01:29.in line with inflation. Other areas that are not protected will face
:01:30. > :01:34.cuts of 25%, so this is just an early taste of how difficult things
:01:35. > :01:37.will get next year on the other side of the Spending Review. I want to
:01:38. > :01:41.put something to you that the cheaper the defence staff said to
:01:42. > :01:47.me, not about the NHS, he would be worried if Mr Trident Macca delete
:01:48. > :01:50.Corbin's views on Trident became Labour policy -- Jeremy Corbyn's
:01:51. > :01:56.views on Trident became Labour policy, that he would never press
:01:57. > :01:59.the button. Let's hear what Richard Houghton had to say. The whole thing
:02:00. > :02:06.about deterrence rest on the court Macca delete -- rest on the use. If
:02:07. > :02:10.you say you are never going to use it, I say you use it every minute of
:02:11. > :02:15.every day and the purpose of the deterrent is you don't have to use
:02:16. > :02:18.it because you successfully deter. So no point in spending billions and
:02:19. > :02:21.billions if our enemies think we will never use it? Yes, because
:02:22. > :02:25.deterrence is then completely undermined.
:02:26. > :02:29.Isn't that the point, if you have the deterrent, you say you will use
:02:30. > :02:32.it, even if you might not. If you don't have it, you save the money.
:02:33. > :02:38.What is the logic of having it and saying you will not use it? I think
:02:39. > :02:41.Jeremy was probably answering a hypothetical question. He has been
:02:42. > :02:45.clear that the Labour Party is going to have a review of its policy. I am
:02:46. > :02:50.somebody who welcomes that review, to be honest. I understand that, but
:02:51. > :02:54.my point is you can have a review and say we won't have the deterrent
:02:55. > :02:59.or we will have the deterrent. What is the logic of saying we will have
:03:00. > :03:06.it but won't use it? As I say, I think Jeremy was answering a
:03:07. > :03:11.hypothetical question. I think it is a difficult question. His views on
:03:12. > :03:15.nuclear weapons are long held. The Labour Party needs to go through
:03:16. > :03:20.this review. We need to decide democratically as a party whether we
:03:21. > :03:25.want to commit to the renewal of Trident. At the point at which that
:03:26. > :03:28.decision is taken, Labour Party members will obviously be
:03:29. > :03:30.deciding... Thank you, you can come back and tell me that.
:03:31. > :03:34.There's no Sunday Politics next week because MPs are taking a break
:03:35. > :03:36.from Westminster - but we'll be back on the 22nd November.
:03:37. > :03:40.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics -