:00:37. > :00:42.Could British war planes be in action over the skies of Syria
:00:43. > :00:46.Later this week, David Cameron set out his strategy
:00:47. > :00:55.George Osborne says all Whitehall departments have agreed to cuts
:00:56. > :00:59.as he gears up for his Spending Review this week.
:01:00. > :01:03.We speak to one of his Conservative predecessors.
:01:04. > :01:07.And it's been a pretty rough week for the Labour Party.
:01:08. > :01:13.Later in the programme: can Jeremy Corbyn steady the ship?
:01:14. > :01:16.Leanne Wood says she's prepared to listen to David Cameron as he makes
:01:17. > :01:29.the case for British air strikes against so-called Islamic State.
:01:30. > :01:33.And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political
:01:34. > :01:43.They pay me to say it, so I am happy to do so.
:01:44. > :01:45.Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh - who'll be tweeting
:01:46. > :01:48.Following the terror attacks in Paris, President Hollande has
:01:49. > :01:51.embarked on putting together a Grand Coalition to defeat Islamic State in
:01:52. > :01:54.Syria, involving the UN, America, Russia and, naturally, Britain.
:01:55. > :01:56.The British Government is keen to join but faces the little problem
:01:57. > :01:59.Later this week, David Cameron will present
:02:00. > :02:03.his Syrian strategy to Parliament in the hope it will command a majority
:02:04. > :02:10.Here's what the Chancellor had to say on the Marr Show earlier,
:02:11. > :02:13.This week, we are going to step up our diplomatic efforts,
:02:14. > :02:16.our humanitarian efforts, and make the case for a greater
:02:17. > :02:22.The Prime Minister will seek support across Parliament
:02:23. > :02:27.for strikes against that terrorist organisation in Syria and frankly
:02:28. > :02:30.Britain has never been a country which stands on the sidelines
:02:31. > :02:45.Nick, am I right in thinking that you can see now the makings, the
:02:46. > :02:56.putting together, of majority for the Prime Minister's desire to bomb
:02:57. > :03:00.in Syria? They are being reasonably cautious that they are pretty
:03:01. > :03:03.confident that, even now, they have the numbers. Three big things have
:03:04. > :03:08.happened since three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was indicating he
:03:09. > :03:12.was unlikely to have a vote. Paris has changed everything. Jeremy
:03:13. > :03:16.Corbyn has had a challenging week. Thirdly, the Prime Minister has said
:03:17. > :03:21.he will set out the comprehensive strategy. Labour MPs who said they
:03:22. > :03:26.would like to support him have said they could not do it unless there
:03:27. > :03:31.was a comprehensive strategy. It is also turning Tory MPs can lead by
:03:32. > :03:36.Crispin Blunt, who would have voted against. He is now indicating he
:03:37. > :03:41.possibly will vote for this. DUP, Nigel Dodds, who has eight MPs at
:03:42. > :03:46.Westminster, he is indicating that if the Prime Minister set this
:03:47. > :03:51.out... It looks like the numbers are there. We did here this morning that
:03:52. > :03:57.the BBC reported the DUP with back the Prime Minister if what he had to
:03:58. > :04:01.say was credible. We are told the Tory rebels are about 15 and Labour
:04:02. > :04:05.rebels thinking of voting with the Government or abstaining could be as
:04:06. > :04:12.high as 50. What is your intelligence? A huge number, from
:04:13. > :04:17.very senior people as well. Actually the number of senior people leaving,
:04:18. > :04:22.exiting the Shadow Cabinet, I think a challenging week would be an
:04:23. > :04:28.understatement. It is at a whole new level. There is only so much time
:04:29. > :04:32.you can buy with free votes. Jeremy Corbyn opposes the party policy.
:04:33. > :04:36.This time he would set his own policy but no 1 would come with him.
:04:37. > :04:40.How many times can you play that trick before people say this is a
:04:41. > :04:49.loose conglomeration of individuals and not a party? Do you think he
:04:50. > :04:54.would go for a free vote? Maria Eagle has just published a paper
:04:55. > :04:59.which is very hawkish. Hilary Benn has been making noises about this.
:05:00. > :05:05.Who is there to support, apart from John McDonnell, in this position? He
:05:06. > :05:09.is very isolated on this. The problem for the Prime Minister is,
:05:10. > :05:12.in a sense he gets what he wishes for. We begin joining others in
:05:13. > :05:19.bombing and things do not really changed in Syria. I do not think the
:05:20. > :05:21.House of Commons is the primary obstacle facing David Cameron. I
:05:22. > :05:26.think he will get the votes could not see much because of the case he
:05:27. > :05:33.will make later this week but because what happened in the last
:05:34. > :05:37.week. They focused on all necessary measures and use combat as a
:05:38. > :05:41.metaphor, but a deliberate metaphor, I think. The biggest problem is not
:05:42. > :05:43.the Parliamentary vote for David Cameron, it is the diplomatic
:05:44. > :05:49.struggle to agree with Russia exactly how we go about this. Russia
:05:50. > :05:54.are happy to bomb in Syria against Isil but they are not happy to do so
:05:55. > :05:57.in a way which, in their words, destroys the statehood of Syria
:05:58. > :06:04.which alludes to their traditional support for the existing Syrian
:06:05. > :06:07.state and basher al-Assad. The politics is far more challenging
:06:08. > :06:17.than the technical act of getting the votes together. That is the
:06:18. > :06:18.problem. What is the endgame? Transition can sometimes take a long
:06:19. > :06:24.time. A very long transition. On Wednesday, Chancellor Osborne
:06:25. > :06:26.will announce the Government's Over the next five years, they
:06:27. > :06:30.will total ?4 trillion. But even to stay within that barely
:06:31. > :06:33.imaginable sum of money, Mr Osborne will have to continue to cut
:06:34. > :06:35.departmental and welfare spending. Hence the mantra you will hear this
:06:36. > :06:41.week of "a country that lives within its means" - in other words more of
:06:42. > :06:45.a squeeze on many public services. The Chancellor wants government
:06:46. > :06:46.departments to find a further ?20 billion worth
:06:47. > :06:51.of savings between now and 2020. So, where could that money come
:06:52. > :06:54.from? Welcome to our virtual Treasury
:06:55. > :06:59.courtyard. Now, they don't have one of these
:07:00. > :07:02.in the real courtyard but it represents everything the
:07:03. > :07:07.Government is due to spend this year I'm going to start by highlighting
:07:08. > :07:14.a few of the most significant parts You can see the ?217 billion
:07:15. > :07:21.which goes on Social Security. That includes everything
:07:22. > :07:25.from jobseeker's allowance to There is the ?35 billion
:07:26. > :07:31.the UK is due to spend this year And George Osborne says that's
:07:32. > :07:38.a figure he is determined to bring Now,
:07:39. > :07:42.the focus of his statement is the money which goes on administering
:07:43. > :07:45.and delivering public services. Here it is,
:07:46. > :07:51.and you can see it's just under half We are going to delve into
:07:52. > :07:56.the budgets of a few of the most It is the NHS which accounts
:07:57. > :08:03.for the biggest chunk The Chancellor is not going to find
:08:04. > :08:09.any of his savings here because he has promised to increase
:08:10. > :08:12.NHS funding in England by ?10 The Government's also promised
:08:13. > :08:21.a real terms increase That is part of its commitment to
:08:22. > :08:27.meeting the Nato target of spending The Government is also committed to
:08:28. > :08:36.spending 0.7% of GDP on overseas aid - meaning that
:08:37. > :08:42.budget is also protected. So, the Chancellor is not going to
:08:43. > :08:45.find any of his ?20 billion of savings he says he needs to make
:08:46. > :08:51.from either health, defence or aid. So, where could it come from
:08:52. > :08:52.instead? What about
:08:53. > :08:56.from the education budget? That is a big part of what the
:08:57. > :09:00.state spends on public services. Here
:09:01. > :09:01.the Conservatives have promised a That means savings
:09:02. > :09:08.from here will be limited. Although the rest of the budget does
:09:09. > :09:13.not have any guaranteed protection. Here is the money that goes
:09:14. > :09:17.to English local authorities. This was one of the first
:09:18. > :09:20.departments to agree to big savings Let's look at the Home Office whose
:09:21. > :09:29.budget this year is ?10.6 billion. The single biggest thing
:09:30. > :09:32.Theresa May's department spends money on is the grant it gives to
:09:33. > :09:37.police forces in England and Wales. Although they also get some of their
:09:38. > :09:40.money from other sources including And some of the other departments
:09:41. > :09:47.which are going to have to find big savings over the next four years are
:09:48. > :09:57.the departments of business, But let's go back to that big part
:09:58. > :10:04.of government spending I mentioned Because
:10:05. > :10:07.of course that is where a lot of the focus has been in the weeks
:10:08. > :10:10.and months before this statement. Again here there is plenty
:10:11. > :10:13.the Chancellor will not touch. The state pension is
:10:14. > :10:16.a massive part of the budget. But the Government has
:10:17. > :10:19.a long-standing promise not to cut it along with various pensioner
:10:20. > :10:23.benefits. The other areas of big spending
:10:24. > :10:27.the Government has had to look to are housing benefit, disability
:10:28. > :10:35.benefits and incapacity benefits. And, you can see that big sum
:10:36. > :10:37.of money, ?30 billion, which is due to be spent
:10:38. > :10:40.on personal tax credits this year. An area where the Chancellor has
:10:41. > :10:43.found that making savings can So, the Chancellor faces some tricky
:10:44. > :10:49.trade-offs on Wednesday when he unveils his spending plans
:10:50. > :10:52.for the next five years. Paul Johnson from the Institute
:10:53. > :11:07.of Fiscal Studies has some ideas. Paul, welcome back to the programme.
:11:08. > :11:11.Let's start with this tricky question of tax credits. What is the
:11:12. > :11:18.Chancellor, in your view, most likely to do? He has two big
:11:19. > :11:23.choices. He can decide not to make any cuts, or much in the wake of
:11:24. > :11:28.cuts, next April. That is what all of the bus has been about, the cuts
:11:29. > :11:33.that will come in next April. -- the fuss. Most of the savings will come
:11:34. > :11:40.in the long run full he has also announced the new universal credit
:11:41. > :11:44.system will be much less generous than he was originally intending. In
:11:45. > :11:47.five or ten years time, even if he does not put the cut scene he was
:11:48. > :11:52.planning in April, he will still make much the same level of saving
:11:53. > :11:55.for them if he does that, his spending in 2016 on welfare benefits
:11:56. > :12:00.will be ?4 billion or so higher than he was planning and he will bust his
:12:01. > :12:05.own welfare cap, the cap he has legislated, which assumes he will
:12:06. > :12:13.make those savings. That is one option. The other option is he will
:12:14. > :12:16.try to find some savings in 2016, maybe reduce the cuts to tax credits
:12:17. > :12:22.that have some savings and look elsewhere in the welfare budget to
:12:23. > :12:27.make up the rest of the savings. Whatever he does on tax credits will
:12:28. > :12:30.cost money, certainly in the short run. His deficit reduction plan for
:12:31. > :12:36.the ship is already in some trouble. He faces huge pressures to
:12:37. > :12:43.spend more on everything from health to Social Security. -- for this year
:12:44. > :12:46.is already in some trouble. The first thing to say about that
:12:47. > :12:50.surplus in 2020, there is a huge amount of uncertainty about where we
:12:51. > :12:56.will be. Forecasting these things by view ad is an extreme you tricky and
:12:57. > :13:00.uncertain business. Ignoring that, assuming the whole world moves as he
:13:01. > :13:05.expects over the next few years, he will require cuts of about 25% in
:13:06. > :13:09.those unprotected apartments we have just heard about the Home Office,
:13:10. > :13:15.local government, and so on, on top of the cuts that happened during the
:13:16. > :13:21.last parliament will Boyd -- involve really sharp cuts between 2010 and
:13:22. > :13:24.2020. They are big changes to the way which we will deliver local
:13:25. > :13:29.Gottman and the way we will be delivering police force, the way we
:13:30. > :13:33.will be delivering further education and so on. Those areas of government
:13:34. > :13:39.will change fundamentally over the decade. Let me get these right. When
:13:40. > :13:43.you add up all the cuts, those made in those about to happen, between
:13:44. > :13:55.20102020, major departments, the unprotected ones, will face cuts of
:13:56. > :14:00.up to 40%. -- between 2010-2020. Is it doable? That is a good question.
:14:01. > :14:04.It may not turn up that badly if the economy does better than expected
:14:05. > :14:08.all the Chancellor finds some additional savings in Social
:14:09. > :14:14.Security, or he does not aim for the 10 million surplus and goes for a 1
:14:15. > :14:20.billion surplus. -- 10 billion. If he does go down that route, it will
:14:21. > :14:25.be more difficult than it was in the last parliament. If there were easy
:14:26. > :14:29.cuts to have made, they will have been made already. Do not forget one
:14:30. > :14:34.of the biggest bits of public spending goes on the pay of people
:14:35. > :14:37.who work in the public sector, the pay of nurses, teachers and civil
:14:38. > :14:42.servants and so on. That was quite easy to hold down over the last
:14:43. > :14:47.parliament. Pay in the private sector was doing so badly. We
:14:48. > :14:51.expect, almost economists now expect that pay in the private sector will
:14:52. > :14:59.rise well to be strongly. In that world it will be quite hard to hold
:15:00. > :15:00.down pay right across the public sector, as he said he would do back
:15:01. > :15:02.in the July budget. Joining me now Nigel Lawson,
:15:03. > :15:12.Margaret Thatcher's longest serving Welcome back to the programme. Thank
:15:13. > :15:16.you, I enjoyed your rant the other day. It was not a rant, it was a
:15:17. > :15:21.carefully scripted commentary but thank you for your remarks. Let me
:15:22. > :15:26.take an overall review on the Chancellor 's position. The
:15:27. > :15:34.borrowing figures for October were pretty bad, looks like he will
:15:35. > :15:39.overshoot this year 's borrowing. Is the austerity programme in trouble
:15:40. > :15:45.again? It is difficult, he has a difficult time because of these
:15:46. > :15:50.ridiculous protected programmes which should not exist. Aid is going
:15:51. > :15:56.up again and again, the Nobel Prize for economics has been given to an
:15:57. > :16:02.English economist, he is Scottish in fact, and one of his principal
:16:03. > :16:07.findings, he is a great expert on global poverty and one of his major
:16:08. > :16:10.findings is that overseas aid although well-intentioned does more
:16:11. > :16:18.harm than good. Yet that is going up and up. He has got a tough time but
:16:19. > :16:22.it can be done. When I was Chancellor I was able to balance the
:16:23. > :16:30.budget and get it into surplus and he has to do it as well. He has huge
:16:31. > :16:35.pressure on security, the police, the NHS, we were just talking about
:16:36. > :16:39.mitigating cuts on the tax credit side, these are all hard to resist
:16:40. > :16:45.in the current atmosphere. It is going to be very difficult and
:16:46. > :16:49.although I suspect it will mainly be cuts in savings in public spending I
:16:50. > :16:53.think he will have to do more on the tax side than he would have liked.
:16:54. > :16:59.There is some logic in that, for example it looks as if, Paul Johnson
:17:00. > :17:05.was seeing, or maybe it was you, but he is likely to some extent to defer
:17:06. > :17:10.the cutting of the tax credits. It's quite right to take a knife to the
:17:11. > :17:14.tax credits, they have grown far too much and are undesirable in their
:17:15. > :17:18.present size. But nonetheless what he did propose originally was a bit
:17:19. > :17:25.too much for some and therefore he has got to delay it a bit. But when
:17:26. > :17:29.he presented, he presented a package including raising income tax
:17:30. > :17:35.threshold. He could, as part of the package delay that a little bit and
:17:36. > :17:39.help on the tax side. The government has always said it will do all the
:17:40. > :17:44.heavy lifting, the heavy lifting will be done by cuts in spending
:17:45. > :17:49.rather than increasing taxes. Will he now have to look at increasing
:17:50. > :17:53.some taxes are hats at a time of low oil prices on fuel duty? I think
:17:54. > :18:01.that's a good suggestion and it is sensible to do that. But defer a
:18:02. > :18:07.reduction which he might find less... Yes but might he have to
:18:08. > :18:13.look at some tax rises? I think you should look at the fuel duty, yes.
:18:14. > :18:19.President Hollande has said that national security comes before
:18:20. > :18:25.deficit reduction, he has sidelined the fiscal pact he has with the rest
:18:26. > :18:29.of Europe. He plans a huge increase in security spending, 17,000 more
:18:30. > :18:33.police and border guards and other security personnel. Will the British
:18:34. > :18:37.be looking at George Osborne to do something similar next week?
:18:38. > :18:41.President Hollande has never been keen on deficit-reduction in the
:18:42. > :18:45.first place. It's not unconnected with the fact as well that the
:18:46. > :18:52.French economy, and I live in France, the French economy is in a
:18:53. > :18:55.bad way. We are doing much better. Security is important but the
:18:56. > :19:03.government has said very clearly that it is going to be keeping to
:19:04. > :19:06.the 2% target, 2% of GDP on defence spending, something France is not
:19:07. > :19:12.doing even though it has considerable defence expenditure.
:19:13. > :19:16.The leaked letter from one of the most senior police officers to the
:19:17. > :19:19.Home Secretary says cuts to police budgets could reduce very
:19:20. > :19:24.significantly the ability to respond to a Paris style attack. The
:19:25. > :19:29.Chancellor is going to be under pressure to make security more
:19:30. > :19:34.important than deficit-reduction. Certainly for the foreseeable
:19:35. > :19:38.future. Security is essential. It is vital. But I think the police are
:19:39. > :19:44.complaining a little bit too much. Look how much the police are
:19:45. > :19:50.spending now on chasing up often unsubstantiated accusations of
:19:51. > :19:54.historic sex abuse. That has got nothing to do with security. Those
:19:55. > :19:59.resources should be put where they need is. I think also what the
:20:00. > :20:03.police need is not just money, and the security services to, they need
:20:04. > :20:06.intelligence. I think it would make a lot of sense and what I would like
:20:07. > :20:14.to see the government doing is to expedite the passage of the
:20:15. > :20:19.investigatory Powers Bill which is long overdue and badly needed. In
:20:20. > :20:25.this climate you accept that cutting the top rate of income tax back to
:20:26. > :20:29.the 40% that you originally introduced, that that is politically
:20:30. > :20:34.impossible for the foreseeable future? It depends how far you can
:20:35. > :20:38.proceed. I would hope that during this parliament it can be done. It
:20:39. > :20:43.is politically difficult but there is no budgetary reason against it.
:20:44. > :20:48.When I cut it it increased revenue and it would do so again. The cap
:20:49. > :20:52.which George Osborne has already done in the last parliament from 50,
:20:53. > :21:00.245 even though the Liberal Democrats he did it and it raised
:21:01. > :21:04.money and didn't cost anything. To be cutting police numbers, to be
:21:05. > :21:09.struggling to find money for the NHS, to be doing something for the
:21:10. > :21:13.working poor on tax credits, making life a bit more difficult for them
:21:14. > :21:18.but then to be cutting the top rate of the highest earners? That is why
:21:19. > :21:22.I don't think you can be doing it now that you were asking about the
:21:23. > :21:29.foreseeable future. You still think he can do it before the end of this
:21:30. > :21:35.Parliament? Yes I do. On Europe, how confident are you feeling about
:21:36. > :21:40.winning the referendum to withdraw? Nobody can call a referendum. It is
:21:41. > :21:44.difficult enough sometimes to call a general election and referendums are
:21:45. > :21:49.even harder to call. Logically I don't think he will do it. Logically
:21:50. > :21:56.David Cameron ought to be campaigning to leave because what he
:21:57. > :22:03.said at the beginning was he was dissatisfied with the European Union
:22:04. > :22:09.as it is. He wanted a fundamental reform to be enshrined in treaty
:22:10. > :22:13.change. Then stay in a reformed European Union. There is not going
:22:14. > :22:17.to be a reformed European Union. There will not be a treaty change.
:22:18. > :22:22.What the referendum is going to be about is if you want to stay in or
:22:23. > :22:27.leave and an reform European Union. So logically he ought to say leave
:22:28. > :22:32.and that is where I am because if it is an reform we don't want to stay
:22:33. > :22:35.in it. So even if the primer Mr was to get all his renegotiation demands
:22:36. > :22:50.such as we know them it would not change your mind on coming out? No,
:22:51. > :22:52.if he demanded a lot more and got it, major reforms which I have
:22:53. > :22:57.written about but I don't have time to go into no, I think it would be
:22:58. > :23:04.welcomed right across the European Union. This is not the view of the
:23:05. > :23:06.majority of the people, but we cannot tell the rest of the
:23:07. > :23:11.countries what to do, all we can say is what we are going to do. As we
:23:12. > :23:16.get closer to the referendum date, we don't know when it will be but
:23:17. > :23:20.when we get closer to it being announced, in terms of who seem to
:23:21. > :23:25.be the major figure who leads your side of the referendum campaign, if
:23:26. > :23:37.not Nigel Farage, who? Certainly not Nigel Farage. I think the people who
:23:38. > :23:40.want to stay in have put up a businessman. Stewart draws. Not a
:23:41. > :23:48.particularly captivating businessman. Who will be the
:23:49. > :23:54.equivalent? I have no idea, but we will wait and see but it certainly
:23:55. > :24:00.won't be Nigel Farage. He will be an important player. Why not? Because
:24:01. > :24:06.Ukip has just one member of Parliament. We are a parliamentary
:24:07. > :24:10.democracy and the majority party is the Conservative Party. Nigel
:24:11. > :24:12.Lawson, thank you for being with us. Thank you.
:24:13. > :24:15.It's been a pretty torrid week for the Labour Party.
:24:16. > :24:17.Splits on everything from how to deal with terrorists to
:24:18. > :24:20.Trident, to Ken Livingstone, culminating in a bizarre row
:24:21. > :24:22.about whether or not the Shadow Chancellor wants to scrap MI5.
:24:23. > :24:25.John McDonnell insists Britain's spies are safe in his hands,
:24:26. > :24:27.though he did admit that his party has had a "rough week".
:24:28. > :24:34.It is the week that Jeremy Corbyn and his party grappled with issues
:24:35. > :24:40.In the wake of the Paris attacks, the Labour leader said he was not
:24:41. > :24:44.happy with the idea of police officers shooting to kill
:24:45. > :24:46.on British streets, which led to a very stormy party meeting,
:24:47. > :24:56.So, you tweeted, "please tell me it is not true that Jeremy just said,
:24:57. > :24:58.faced with Kalashnikov-wielding genocidal fascists, our security
:24:59. > :25:06.I, along with millions of Labour voters
:25:07. > :25:09.in this country, were very concerned by the interview that Jeremy gave.
:25:10. > :25:14.Thankfully, Hilary Benn, the Shadow Foreign Secretary, clarified matters
:25:15. > :25:17.very quickly and restated support for the use of lethal force and,
:25:18. > :25:23.support of the use of drone strikes, which Jeremy had also questioned.
:25:24. > :25:25.Jeremy himself, thankfully, a few hours later,
:25:26. > :25:27.also issued a clarification, and I'm very pleased he did.
:25:28. > :25:31.A lot of Labour voters will have been very relieved.
:25:32. > :25:38.Then came a row about the former Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone,
:25:39. > :25:41.being appointed to co-chair the party's review of Trident, and
:25:42. > :25:44.the emergence of a letter from a campaign group calling for MI5 to be
:25:45. > :25:46.disbanded that the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, seems
:25:47. > :25:50.And we found something else interesting that John
:25:51. > :25:57.This Parliamentary motion he proposed last October saying
:25:58. > :26:00.taxpayers who do not like war should be able to opt out
:26:01. > :26:05.The military is where the next battle may lie.
:26:06. > :26:11.If and when the Government brings forward
:26:12. > :26:14.plans to extend British air strikes from Iraq to Syria, some Labour MPs
:26:15. > :26:17.want to vote in favour, while their leader is a committed
:26:18. > :26:23.One Labour figure is speaking out for the first time.
:26:24. > :26:27.I think it would be wrong to suggest there is a settled view on the
:26:28. > :26:31.People will bring their own prejudices,
:26:32. > :26:33.which are from being instinctively for intervention, to having long
:26:34. > :26:39.The only thing I would ask of all of my colleagues is we look
:26:40. > :26:45.at this with an open mind, examining the facts rather than
:26:46. > :26:53.seeing how it matches our prejudices, and then reach a
:26:54. > :26:55.decision which is in the national interest.
:26:56. > :26:57.Do you think Jeremy Corbyn is able to do that?
:26:58. > :27:00.He has some very strongly held views that we should not get involved
:27:01. > :27:05.He may have to come to a point where he says,
:27:06. > :27:08.now that I'm not just a backbencher, I am actually the Leader of
:27:09. > :27:12.There is an element of national interest and that is
:27:13. > :27:16.For the young Corbynites at this event about Labour's economic policy
:27:17. > :27:23.The only reason we look bad to the general public, the only reason
:27:24. > :27:28.we do not look very strong at the moment, is that we are not united.
:27:29. > :27:31.If you have criticisms with the Leader, you should take it up
:27:32. > :27:35.It is not fitting to do these things in the press, criticising people.
:27:36. > :27:38.Do you think there is a plot against Jeremy Corbyn?
:27:39. > :27:46.If they are planning a plot they should probably think
:27:47. > :27:49.about the fact Jeremy was elected with 59.5% of the vote, I think.
:27:50. > :27:56.And we saw, from the beginning, he went
:27:57. > :27:59.from the least likely person to get in to the front runner, to the
:28:00. > :28:04.If people are plotting to get rid of him, they really should listen
:28:05. > :28:07.The party should be based around what the party members want.
:28:08. > :28:09.Unfortunately for them there will be another flash point
:28:10. > :28:14.On Tuesday there will be a vote in the House of Commons on Trident,
:28:15. > :28:19.Labour MPs have been instructed not to turn up.
:28:20. > :28:22.We understand a bunch of them, including some big names,
:28:23. > :28:24.are thinking about defying their Leader and voting
:28:25. > :28:32.It would be a largely symbolic vote but another visible symbol of
:28:33. > :28:40.I'm joined now from Doncaster by the Labour MP Caroline Flint -
:28:41. > :28:46.she was a minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
:28:47. > :28:53.Good morning, thank you for coming back on the programme. Let me begin
:28:54. > :28:57.with a general question, it's been a pretty terrible week for Labour,
:28:58. > :29:03.what is the mood now on the Labour backbenches among your colleagues?
:29:04. > :29:07.It's not been a great week for Labour, that is correct. I think
:29:08. > :29:12.part of the reason for that is we haven't looked certain and confident
:29:13. > :29:17.on some of the big issues the nation are worried about. What we have to
:29:18. > :29:22.have from the leadership, not just Jeremy but those around him, is
:29:23. > :29:28.certainty about what we think about what is happening in terms of the
:29:29. > :29:32.terrorist acts in Paris. But more widely about what the certainty we
:29:33. > :29:37.can offer as Labour Party about how we will support our national
:29:38. > :29:41.security. I think understandably there have been concerns, I don't
:29:42. > :29:46.think just on the backbenches of the Labour Party, but also amongst the
:29:47. > :29:51.Shadow Cabinet, that is clear, but also more widely amongst the party
:29:52. > :29:57.membership as well. The news has been dominated for a week now by
:29:58. > :30:03.these terrible events in Paris. Has Jeremy Corbyn mishandled the Labour
:30:04. > :30:11.response to these events? I think what is really important is that
:30:12. > :30:14.with leadership does come a massive responsibility to speak clearly and
:30:15. > :30:19.with certainty about a whole number of issues. But probably more than
:30:20. > :30:23.any other subject area if you like national security demands that.
:30:24. > :30:26.Because at a time where we are all reeling from what has happened in
:30:27. > :30:30.Paris, and there is no doubt Jeremy Corbyn takes very, very seriously
:30:31. > :30:36.what has happened there and its implication for the security of
:30:37. > :30:40.British people as well and others around the world. The question of
:30:41. > :30:43.allowing our pleas through the legal framework which already exists to
:30:44. > :30:47.take action when they are presented with a terrorist in front of them
:30:48. > :30:51.but also on some of the other matters about how we should move
:30:52. > :30:55.forward in a united way with other countries to tackle Isil, I think
:30:56. > :31:00.that certainty has been wanting and not helped, I have to say, when
:31:01. > :31:04.other members of the Shadow Cabinet cannot speak with one voice about
:31:05. > :31:09.what the leader wants to do. I hope out of this week we will see some
:31:10. > :31:14.clarity and certainty coming forward and I think we already know, and I
:31:15. > :31:18.have heard more this morning, that David Cameron will come back to the
:31:19. > :31:22.House of Commons this week. We do need a plan, it can't just be about
:31:23. > :31:26.military action, it has to be more than that and I hope we can be in a
:31:27. > :31:30.position to opportunity going forward to tackle the threat of Isil
:31:31. > :31:31.which is the most major threat to security around the world that we
:31:32. > :31:42.have at the moment. If Mr Cameron comes form with that
:31:43. > :31:48.dashes forward with that kind of plan, would you back military action
:31:49. > :31:55.in Syria? I believe there can be a case former literary action in
:31:56. > :31:58.Syria. We are facing the most profoundly barbaric group of
:31:59. > :32:04.terrorists I think I have ever realised in my lifetime or thought
:32:05. > :32:10.about. -- military action. Also the most resourced group of terrorists
:32:11. > :32:14.in the world. It is a different situation to what we faced a few
:32:15. > :32:20.years ago where I voted against military action when Cameron came
:32:21. > :32:25.back to Parliament to deal with Assad. We have in this country and
:32:26. > :32:33.this region, a number of dangerous groups. There are a number of --
:32:34. > :32:41.there is a hierarchy of dangerous groups and Isil is the top of that
:32:42. > :32:45.list. If it can be about, yes, what sort of military action should take
:32:46. > :32:51.place, maybe the air strikes... Like we are doing in Iraq, within that a
:32:52. > :32:55.wider plan as to how we will deal with civil war in Syria and what
:32:56. > :33:01.else we need to do going forward. That is something I feel I could
:33:02. > :33:05.support. You say there is no doubt that the Labour leadership takes
:33:06. > :33:11.these matters seriously. Can I point out, just before the election this
:33:12. > :33:17.year, the Shadow Chancellor penned his name to a document supporting
:33:18. > :33:21.the abolition of MI5 and disarming the police? Last year he supported
:33:22. > :33:26.people opting out of having their taxes fund any kind of military
:33:27. > :33:30.activity. I do not think... I suspect a lot of people will not
:33:31. > :33:36.think that is taking these issues very seriously. Is Mr McConnell fit
:33:37. > :33:42.to hold the second most important position within the Shadow Cabinet?
:33:43. > :33:46.One of the aspects of the leadership campaign over the summer was a sense
:33:47. > :33:52.that Jeremy was authentic and very clear about his views. And, you
:33:53. > :33:58.know, they may not be shared with everybody, I may have some different
:33:59. > :34:04.views to Jeremy on that. Part of his appeal was the authenticity, that it
:34:05. > :34:09.did not have any spin. He said he did not realise what he do when he
:34:10. > :34:15.held that the letter and seemed to support it. We had a leadership
:34:16. > :34:21.election. There was a massive surge in our membership and Jeremy had an
:34:22. > :34:25.overwhelming mandate. Maybe, you know, Jeremy and John McDonnell,
:34:26. > :34:29.have earned the right within that to put forward their views. What is
:34:30. > :34:34.clear to me, I am a moderate politician, but I am also a
:34:35. > :34:38.conviction politician. I do not say one thing to one group of people and
:34:39. > :34:42.another to another group of people. If the leadership believes in these
:34:43. > :34:45.things, they should say that and the biggest test is then to let the
:34:46. > :34:53.British people determine whether they agree with them or not. I think
:34:54. > :34:57.clarity, authenticity and honesty, they are all very important and that
:34:58. > :35:01.is how you create trust. The last election, at the end, it was clear
:35:02. > :35:08.your party had a problem over the issue of economic security. When Mr
:35:09. > :35:13.Corbyn has said about not shooting terrorists and his reservations
:35:14. > :35:17.about killing jihadi John, is not a danger, as some polls suggest this
:35:18. > :35:24.morning, though it is not a danger, as some polls suggest this morning,
:35:25. > :35:28.voters are national security and not just economic security? When it
:35:29. > :35:32.comes to leadership, as you know, you may have your own view is that
:35:33. > :35:36.you had before but you have to be open to actually other views as
:35:37. > :35:42.well. That is why we're having this debate within the Parliamentary
:35:43. > :35:48.Labour Party as to how we get a position regarding what we do next
:35:49. > :35:51.in Syria. Jeremy has an overwhelming mandate. With that comes a
:35:52. > :35:55.responsibility leadership which shows the ideas he puts forward and
:35:56. > :35:59.answers to these really difficult questions, whether on the economy
:36:00. > :36:04.national security, can also reach out beyond the Parliamentary Labour
:36:05. > :36:12.Party and to that matter the Labour Party. Part of that is winning
:36:13. > :36:16.People's trust to back you. That is the task, not just the Jeremy but
:36:17. > :36:22.any leader of the leather party. He needs to show he can do that. I
:36:23. > :36:25.think he wants to do that. -- the Labour Party. They have said this
:36:26. > :36:29.morning they will have a full discussion in the Shadow Cabinet and
:36:30. > :36:34.there will be discussions within the Parliamentary Labour Party as well.
:36:35. > :36:38.Leadership does require a wider reach and responsibility beyond
:36:39. > :36:44.boundaries. Are you surprised that in so many personal appointments,
:36:45. > :36:50.John McDonnell, Ken Livingstone now on defence, Mr Corbyn seems to have
:36:51. > :36:57.made no effort to reach out to the centre of your party, much less the
:36:58. > :37:02.right of it? Well, all party leaders, I have to say, and I have
:37:03. > :37:05.seen a few, do tend to sometimes surround themselves not only with
:37:06. > :37:11.elected politicians but the paid staff who are part of their group.
:37:12. > :37:16.For any party leader, whoever they point, they have to show they will
:37:17. > :37:19.work in a way that is not just fashioned by their own particular
:37:20. > :37:23.background and experience and maybe their own point of view. There is a
:37:24. > :37:29.wider responsibility here. The Labour Party is not a pressure
:37:30. > :37:34.group. We exist to win elections in order to put our platform into
:37:35. > :37:39.practice in government. Therefore, the people around Jeremy, who have
:37:40. > :37:42.been appointed, they have to demonstrate they understand the
:37:43. > :37:45.responsibilities of that, responsibilities to the wider Labour
:37:46. > :37:51.Party. Some people within it he may not agree with him on everything but
:37:52. > :37:55.at heart we all want to win the next election. Importantly, 400,000
:37:56. > :38:00.people took part in the leadership election. That is amazing. We have
:38:01. > :38:10.had a ground swell of people join the party and many of them want to
:38:11. > :38:12.be active in a very positive way. I welcome mat. We have to convince
:38:13. > :38:17.millions of people to support us in the next election and in all the
:38:18. > :38:22.elections up to 2020. Final question to you, if Mr Corbyn continues the
:38:23. > :38:30.way he has begun, will he be leading your party into the 2020 election?
:38:31. > :38:35.Does he have any chance of winning? Look, we have had, seven, eight,
:38:36. > :38:39.nine weeks since the leadership election. It has been rocky along
:38:40. > :38:42.the way. We have made significant impact when it came to the debate
:38:43. > :38:49.around tax credits for working people. Will he lead your party into
:38:50. > :38:55.the next election? What Jeremy has to do now is focused on how he leads
:38:56. > :39:01.our party right now. That will determine our fortunes in the weeks,
:39:02. > :39:03.months and also in 2020. Thank you for joining us.
:39:04. > :39:08.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:09. > :39:19.Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:39:20. > :39:23.Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood says she's prepared to listen to
:39:24. > :39:26.David Cameron as he makes the case for British air strikes
:39:27. > :39:31.Former counter-terrorism minister Kim Howells questions whether
:39:32. > :39:35.the Muslim community here should do more to tackle Islamic extremism.
:39:36. > :39:40.And what will the Chancellor's Spending Review mean for Wales?
:39:41. > :39:43.If we believe what we read in the newspapers today,
:39:44. > :39:46.David Cameron wants the UK to be part of bombing raids
:39:47. > :39:50.against the so-called Islamic State in Syria in the next fortnight.
:39:51. > :39:53.To do that, of course, he needs the backing of the House
:39:54. > :39:56.of Commons, so the Prime Minister will begin renewed efforts to
:39:57. > :40:02.Tomorrow he'll meet France's President Hollande for talks
:40:03. > :40:06.on counter-terrorism co-operation and the fight against IS.
:40:07. > :40:09.It comes as the leader of Plaid Cymru has told BBC Wales that
:40:10. > :40:13.she's prepared to listen to the Prime Minister as he makes the case
:40:14. > :40:19.But Leanne Wood says Mr Cameron would need to convince her party.
:40:20. > :40:38.Events of the past week have brought the problems of the Middle East
:40:39. > :40:41.into much sharper focus and much closer to home.
:40:42. > :40:46.what do we do about so-called Islamic State?
:40:47. > :40:50.France, the United States and Russia are already hitting them, but the
:40:51. > :40:54.Prime Minister won't try for another vote to allow British air strikes
:40:55. > :40:58.against them in Syria until he is confident he has enough support.
:40:59. > :41:02.But even a party opposed to the Iraq war back in 2003
:41:03. > :41:05.is willing to at least lend him their ears.
:41:06. > :41:09.To date we have not been convinced of the case but, of course,
:41:10. > :41:14.we are prepared to listen to what the Prime Minister has to say
:41:15. > :41:18.and we will listen very carefully to his proposals.
:41:19. > :41:22.But I think there would need to be a number of tests met
:41:23. > :41:26.before we were convinced that we were not about to make the same
:41:27. > :41:34.when the UK government was involved in the invasion of Iraq.
:41:35. > :41:37.What would convince you to back air strikes in Syria?
:41:38. > :41:41.It is very difficult to discuss hypotheticals but, clearly,
:41:42. > :41:46.the sanction of the UN would be something that would be something
:41:47. > :41:51.that would be important to us, but that is not the only thing.
:41:52. > :41:55.What we would need to see was some sort of plan to make sure
:41:56. > :42:03.I would like to be satisfied, for example, that there was some
:42:04. > :42:06.sort of definition as to what success would look like,
:42:07. > :42:13.These are the things that were failed to be looked at ahead
:42:14. > :42:17.of the invasion of Iraq and look at the mess that was created
:42:18. > :42:20.as a result of making those mistakes.
:42:21. > :42:23.Kim Howells was the counter-terrorism minister
:42:24. > :42:25.under the Westminster Labour government.
:42:26. > :42:28.Away from politics, art has long been his passion,
:42:29. > :42:31.and he has begun to commit to canvass his own experiences
:42:32. > :42:34.of being in Afghanistan to see Western action first-hand.
:42:35. > :42:38.But he thinks British overseas action might be a thing of the past.
:42:39. > :42:42.I think the government is probably very worried that it is now seen
:42:43. > :42:46.by the Americans, for example, as being a bit insignificant.
:42:47. > :42:53.Britain has turned in on itself since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
:42:54. > :43:00.I think people are very wary about getting involved
:43:01. > :43:06.in other people's wars, wherever it is in the world.
:43:07. > :43:12.Maybe that is a fundamental change in the nature of British society.
:43:13. > :43:17.Maybe we never will get involved in wars again.
:43:18. > :43:20.There was a time when Wales felt somewhat removed
:43:21. > :43:23.from the threat of global terrorism but, given what happened
:43:24. > :43:27.at the Stade de France, there are potential targets on our doorstep.
:43:28. > :43:30.There is talk of the Millennium Stadium banning bags,
:43:31. > :43:34.and all just a stone's throw from the part of Cardiff
:43:35. > :43:37.which several young men left for Syria.
:43:38. > :43:40.Riyadh Khan was killed in an RAF drone strike earlier this year.
:43:41. > :43:45.The question now, what can be done here to stop future Riyadh Khans?
:43:46. > :43:50.I'm afraid the response to atrocity after atrocity
:43:51. > :43:55.What sort of thing would you like to see?
:43:56. > :43:59.I have not seen thousands of British Muslims out on the streets
:44:00. > :44:08.and demonstrating solidarity with people who have been murdered.
:44:09. > :44:12.I think communities have got to wake up.
:44:13. > :44:21.All of us have a responsibility to try and understand this phenomenon,
:44:22. > :44:30.But that includes Muslim societies in this country.
:44:31. > :44:36.they would strongly argue they are more than doing their bit.
:44:37. > :44:41.The Dar Ul-Isra Centre has a long-established open-door policy.
:44:42. > :44:44.Not for the first time, Muslim and non-Muslim children
:44:45. > :44:48.have this week been finding out about the true meaning of Islam.
:44:49. > :44:53.Politicians have already spoken for years of an anti-Muslim backlash
:44:54. > :44:56.and with talk of 'shoot to kill' if the UK were to be attacked,
:44:57. > :45:00.with suspicion high, many Muslims feel vulnerable.
:45:01. > :45:06.and we can look back at the case of Charles de Menezes,
:45:07. > :45:10.if they make a judgement not based on clear intelligence
:45:11. > :45:15.but maybe their prejudices of what a suspicious individual looks like,
:45:16. > :45:18.very often they are falling back on stereotypes.
:45:19. > :45:22.A Muslim with a headscarf, a Muslim with a beard, and if
:45:23. > :45:27.decisions are made on that basis, increasingly we are going to have,
:45:28. > :45:30.we might have some sad, fatal incident.
:45:31. > :45:34.I think Muslims are conscious that they are very much
:45:35. > :45:40.Only recently, someone like Nigel Farage said Muslims
:45:41. > :45:44.For Muslims, they are British, they have chosen their home,
:45:45. > :45:48.and they are as British as can be, but constantly being questioned
:45:49. > :45:50.about your loyalties is not comfortable
:45:51. > :45:54.and often when we are talking about law enforcement,
:45:55. > :45:57.it feels like you are in the firing line.
:45:58. > :46:02.I think politicians can start talking differently about British
:46:03. > :46:06.Muslims, talking about them not as a suspect community, not as someone
:46:07. > :46:10.who has to take care of extremism when no-one else has, but as part of
:46:11. > :46:14.the British public, part of the wider British fabric of society,
:46:15. > :46:17.and not simply look at British Muslims as the solution
:46:18. > :46:25.That might start helping towards building a warmer, safer Britain.
:46:26. > :46:29.So how do we combat so-called IS and keep people in Wales
:46:30. > :46:35.Easy to ask, far more difficult to get everyone to agree on an answer.
:46:36. > :46:39.But whatever your colour, your creed and your community, until there is a
:46:40. > :46:43.definitive answer, the uncertainty, the threat, the fear,
:46:44. > :46:47.the suspicion is not going to go away.
:46:48. > :46:54.Earlier, I picked up on some of the issues raised there with a Muslim
:46:55. > :47:00.member of the National Assembly, the Conservatives' Altaf Hussain.
:47:01. > :47:04.You will see that it has been condemned worldwide.
:47:05. > :47:07.I am shocked, I am terrified by what has happened
:47:08. > :47:17.we pray for their families both in Paris and in Mali.
:47:18. > :47:21.We have seen that there has been a worldwide condemnation
:47:22. > :47:27.Also, you can see that the Muslim Council of Britain,
:47:28. > :47:31.the Muslim Council of Wales, have come out and condemned it.
:47:32. > :47:36.There is also a peace candle vigil in Newport organised by
:47:37. > :47:44.Islamic Council of Wales and that was attended by all the faiths.
:47:45. > :47:50.You are right, they are not coming out on the streets
:47:51. > :47:54.like we have seen at a time of war in Iraq, when we went there,
:47:55. > :48:00.there were so much people against, but they were not listened to.
:48:01. > :48:04.Muslims should coming out. They are coming out.
:48:05. > :48:07.It think it might take a little more while.
:48:08. > :48:12.this accusation that not enough is being done?
:48:13. > :48:16.Do you think there is a view in the Muslim community that they
:48:17. > :48:19.are being blamed, that they are constantly under suspicion,
:48:20. > :48:25.You have seen that we have created in the past multiculturalism, which
:48:26. > :48:32.has run its course, and what it has done is that we have multiple
:48:33. > :48:37.cultures, Islamic parallel not getting integrated,
:48:38. > :48:50.If you say the cultures are side-by-side rather than together,
:48:51. > :48:57.We need to integrate, we have to celebrate our diversity, we have to
:48:58. > :49:03.integrate, celebrating each person's uniqueness, and take it further.
:49:04. > :49:09.What keeps us apart, we need to condemn that.
:49:10. > :49:16.For example, we saw in the mosque in Cardiff, opening its doors,
:49:17. > :49:19.allowing schools in, is that the kind of opening up of
:49:20. > :49:24.the Muslim community you are talking about, or something different?
:49:25. > :49:27.In this country you have a rule of law,
:49:28. > :49:31.you have liberty, and you have freedom.
:49:32. > :49:36.You can do what you want, really, but it should be under rules.
:49:37. > :49:40.It is a way forward but it is happening now,
:49:41. > :49:46.Probably they need to be more open, you are absolutely right.
:49:47. > :49:50.This is the way forward, openness, integration.
:49:51. > :49:56.Is it a difficult time to try and get this to happen, when we look
:49:57. > :50:00.at the feeling in the public about immigration, about migrants
:50:01. > :50:05.and refugees coming to Wales and the UK, we are looking at a time when
:50:06. > :50:09.terrorism is a real concern for people, is it a difficult time
:50:10. > :50:12.to ask the Muslim community of Wales to open up
:50:13. > :50:15.because they might feel this suspicion against them?
:50:16. > :50:27.700 people, it is said, have gone to Syria.
:50:28. > :50:30.They do come back and when they do, we don't know.
:50:31. > :50:35.So we need to be very open to each other in these communities,
:50:36. > :50:40.they need to look after themselves, which is very important.
:50:41. > :50:43.Has there been a complacency, perhaps, in Wales?
:50:44. > :50:49.We note that there are young men in Cardiff, other cities perhaps,
:50:50. > :50:53.who have been radicalised, who have gone to Syria to fight with
:50:54. > :50:59.Have we felt these problems happened in London, elsewhere,
:51:00. > :51:01.rather than in towns and cities in Wales as well?
:51:02. > :51:09.Some blame poverty, a lack of aspiration, a lack of education,
:51:10. > :51:18.Because there is some other problem which we don't know.
:51:19. > :51:31.What would be your plan in terms of how that integration should work?
:51:32. > :51:34.If you had the Muslim community's ear now
:51:35. > :51:38.and you had a suggestion to make, what would that be?
:51:39. > :51:43.It is, for instance, we have to have proper education in all the schools.
:51:44. > :51:48.We don't know what is happening, where these children are going,
:51:49. > :51:52.because there is no character identified by the Muslims
:51:53. > :51:56.themselves, people are worried about what these children are taught,
:51:57. > :52:05.We have to also bring goodness, what we have, humanitarian laws and
:52:06. > :52:10.other things which we have, into our families and talk about it.
:52:11. > :52:19.Austerity, cuts, balancing the books -
:52:20. > :52:22.they're all very familiar phrases to anyone
:52:23. > :52:26.who's listened to the news or read a newspaper over the past five years.
:52:27. > :52:30.So what can we expect for the public finances over the next five years?
:52:31. > :52:36.On Wednesday, all eyes will turn to number 11 Downing St.
:52:37. > :52:39.George Osborne has said he wants to balance the books by 2019
:52:40. > :52:43.but it is turning out to be easier said than done.
:52:44. > :52:46.The Chancellor's proposed changes to tax credits were defeated in the
:52:47. > :52:50.House of Lords and have been widely criticised by some of his own MPs.
:52:51. > :52:54.He has also faced criticism for apparently planning further cuts
:52:55. > :53:00.Sharing the pain of how to cut public spending will be the big task
:53:01. > :53:04.for Mr Osborne, but at least some of his own side are fully behind him.
:53:05. > :53:08.The government are quite right to be making cuts to public spending and
:53:09. > :53:14.Of course there are issues now around policing, which are being
:53:15. > :53:17.looked at, and that is why the government have said we are going to
:53:18. > :53:21.recruit thousands more people into the intelligence agencies, we are
:53:22. > :53:25.certainly going to look at funding for firearms officers and the police
:53:26. > :53:28.in general as well, but what we can't do is have some sort of knee
:53:29. > :53:31.jerk reaction that says, we are borrowing ?100 billion here, let's
:53:32. > :53:36.up it to ?160 billion to get people on the ground now.
:53:37. > :53:39.It's a temporary fix that will undermine us in the longer term so I
:53:40. > :53:44.hope we are not going to back down on the need to balance the books.
:53:45. > :53:50.Ministers in Cardiff Bay want Mr Osborne to match ?600 million
:53:51. > :53:54.of funding for a city deal, backing major transport
:53:55. > :53:58.and infrastructure projects for Cardiff and South East Wales.
:53:59. > :54:01.We are also due to see details of the proposed flaw
:54:02. > :54:04.in the Barnett Formula, which decides how much money
:54:05. > :54:09.And it will be interesting to see if he is as enthusiastic about the
:54:10. > :54:13.Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon in November as he was in March,
:54:14. > :54:15.just before the general election campaign.
:54:16. > :54:18.Either way, further cuts, we are told,
:54:19. > :54:21.could do serious damage to public services in Wales.
:54:22. > :54:24.I think we will get a continuation of austerity and cuts and,
:54:25. > :54:29.more worryingly, we will see further cuts to the police force, and we are
:54:30. > :54:32.concerned about the problem we have got with terrorism across Europe
:54:33. > :54:38.And I think local government will be under attack again,
:54:39. > :54:42.so older people in their homes will not get the care they need,
:54:43. > :54:48.facilities they hold very dear in their committees will close.
:54:49. > :54:52.George Osborne has said he wants to make an extra ?37 billion
:54:53. > :54:55.of savings over the next five years so, from Wednesday,
:54:56. > :55:01.he will be tightening his grip on the already squeezed public purse.
:55:02. > :55:04.Joining me to discuss the Spending Review are two AMs,
:55:05. > :55:08.Julie Morgan, a Labour member of the Assembly's finance committee
:55:09. > :55:16.and Shadow Finance Minister and Conservative Nick Ramsay.
:55:17. > :55:23.Thank you both for coming in. As we look ahead to Wednesday, we know
:55:24. > :55:27.there will be further cuts, no doubt about that, but it is quite a bleak
:55:28. > :55:34.forecast for those people on welfare, benefit changes. The
:55:35. > :55:40.Institute for Fiscal Studies says Welsh households on average losing
:55:41. > :55:46.?459 a year. It is a tough time over the next five years. It is a tough
:55:47. > :55:50.time and it has been over the last five years. I agree with what David
:55:51. > :55:54.Davies said in that clip, but the problem is that we have been
:55:55. > :55:58.borrowing far too much, we have been living beyond our means and it has
:55:59. > :56:01.fallen to the current UK Conservative government to draw the
:56:02. > :56:05.reins in and get the budget back on track. That is what is Spending
:56:06. > :56:11.Review is about. These are tough times but there is light at the end
:56:12. > :56:14.of the tunnel. In a few years' time the books will be balanced and
:56:15. > :56:18.Britain will be in an economically sound position. What do you think of
:56:19. > :56:23.the importance of balancing the books? Not spending so much on
:56:24. > :56:27.interest charges for money that has been borrowed? Is that a fair way of
:56:28. > :56:31.looking at this? George Osborne is not succeeding in balancing the
:56:32. > :56:35.books and figures that came out last week showed that very clearly. He
:56:36. > :56:39.said the deficit would be gone by the end of the first parliament,
:56:40. > :56:53.when the Conservatives took over in the coalition. That did not happen.
:56:54. > :56:56.I think the was halved. Now he says it will be balanced by 20/20 but the
:56:57. > :56:59.figures last week showed that was going to be difficult to do. It will
:57:00. > :57:01.be interesting to see what he does. Just looking ahead to 20/20, George
:57:02. > :57:06.Osborne wants a surplus by 20/20. Does he need to revise that, to have
:57:07. > :57:11.a rethink, given the tax take is lower than expected? First of all,
:57:12. > :57:16.you can't have it both ways. Labour can't say we have cut too far and
:57:17. > :57:21.too fast, and then say the deficit has only been halved. That was his
:57:22. > :57:26.promised. But you have done that would have required far greater
:57:27. > :57:30.cuts. All I am saying is, that was his mantra, he was going to stop the
:57:31. > :57:35.deficit in the last Parliament and he did not. He said he's going to do
:57:36. > :57:41.it by 20/20. It is what the Conservatives have said. But the
:57:42. > :57:45.situation was revised. Later this week, we will know where we are
:57:46. > :57:49.going to be fiscally in a few years' time so we will see at what point
:57:50. > :57:55.that surplus will be achieved. What we have seen over the last five
:57:56. > :57:58.years, cuts to public spending, but presumably the UK Government will
:57:59. > :58:01.have gone for the easiest cuts first. Whatever is coming now is
:58:02. > :58:06.going to be far more difficult to get through. It is not quite as
:58:07. > :58:11.bleak a picture as people paint. Within those cuts that are being
:58:12. > :58:15.made, there are protected areas. The National Health Service, the key
:58:16. > :58:19.priority of people in this country, that is going to be protected. We
:58:20. > :58:24.know the Welsh Labour government have not decided to protected her.
:58:25. > :58:27.In policing, there are going to be cuts to policing, but within the
:58:28. > :58:33.budget there is protection for issues like counter terrorism. Very
:58:34. > :58:37.important at the moment. And yet this morning, George Osborne refused
:58:38. > :58:40.to rule out the idea that there would be fewer police officers on
:58:41. > :58:45.the street. That has got to be a cause for concern during a time when
:58:46. > :58:49.we are facing terrorist threats. Within policing there are going to
:58:50. > :58:53.be priority is made. This is not going to be easy for anyone. A few
:58:54. > :58:57.years down the line, there is going to be a surplus, we are not quite
:58:58. > :59:04.sure the extent of what that will be yet, but imagine the amount of money
:59:05. > :59:06.we are going to have to spend on public services. This is a
:59:07. > :59:09.short-term challenge and a few years down the line, Wales and the UK will
:59:10. > :59:16.be fiscally better off. Looking at what this will mean for Wales,
:59:17. > :59:19.already we have heard Jane Hutt, the finance minister here, saying it is
:59:20. > :59:23.going to be terrible news for public services if there are any more cuts.
:59:24. > :59:30.Presumably we can expect some form of cuts on Wednesday. How bad? We
:59:31. > :59:32.have heard that some of the departments, the settlement has
:59:33. > :59:37.already happened with the government and there have been cuts, and those
:59:38. > :59:41.were transferred to Wales through the Barnett formula. That suggests
:59:42. > :59:45.there will be cuts. I am very concerned about local government
:59:46. > :59:48.because a lot of cuts have already happened. Probably it is very
:59:49. > :59:53.difficult to make any more cuts in local government. But we are going
:59:54. > :59:59.to have a Barnett floor. It will be interesting to see how much that
:00:00. > :00:04.Barnett floor is. This is the idea there is a minimum spend coming to
:00:05. > :00:08.Wales for the Welsh block grant. The Barnett foreman is obviously totally
:00:09. > :00:11.unsuitable and a House of Lords committee reiterated last week again
:00:12. > :00:16.that it is not fit for purpose but we have the government saying that
:00:17. > :00:20.during the Spending Review is going to bring forward a Barnett floor but
:00:21. > :00:24.that needs to be done in conjunction with the Welsh government. As I
:00:25. > :00:27.understand, so far, it has not been discussed with the Welsh government
:00:28. > :00:33.so it will be interesting to see what has happened. It is vital so
:00:34. > :00:37.that we don't fall even further behind, particularly when spending
:00:38. > :00:40.rises. That is a good point. Presumably having a Barnett floor is
:00:41. > :00:46.good but you need to decide what that is or else it is meaningless.
:00:47. > :00:50.How much do you think that needs to be pressure on to make sure it is at
:00:51. > :00:55.an acceptable level? The details have got to be finalised. The level
:00:56. > :01:00.of the floor will be important and we will be looking closely at that.
:01:01. > :01:04.But I make the point again, for the first time in living memory, we have
:01:05. > :01:09.a UK Government looking to protect the amount of money coming to Wales.
:01:10. > :01:15.We have not seen that before. 1.I would like to make, one of the
:01:16. > :01:20.issues we have seen in Wales, education of schools budget has been
:01:21. > :01:23.protected, 1 % above whatever comes from the UK Government. There were
:01:24. > :01:27.some suggestions in the newspapers this week, maybe that will make it
:01:28. > :01:34.through to the next Labour manifesto. Do you think that needs
:01:35. > :01:38.to be maintained or do you think it is better to have the flexibility? I
:01:39. > :01:41.think we have got to look at everything. The manifesto is in the
:01:42. > :01:46.process of being made so no decisions have yet been made. But in
:01:47. > :01:49.the position of the cuts that will be coming from Westminster,
:01:50. > :01:54.everything has got to be open for discussion. It would be great if we
:01:55. > :01:56.could keep that extra 1% because the education of our children must be
:01:57. > :02:01.one of the most important thing is that we do and there is a strong
:02:02. > :02:04.commitment from the Welsh Labour government but I think everything
:02:05. > :02:09.has to be considered. And we need to protect the NHS budget. I am afraid
:02:10. > :02:11.time has beaten us. Thank you for joining us. Thank you for
:02:12. > :02:14.time has beaten us. Thank you for joining us. Thank you
:02:15. > :02:21.time has beaten us. Thank you for need to come up bicycles and onto --
:02:22. > :02:24.people need to get on to bikes and of polluting cars.
:02:25. > :02:26.Can Jeremy Corbyn rein in his discontented MPs?
:02:27. > :02:28.Can George Osborne sell his spending cuts?
:02:29. > :02:44.Helen, let's start with the spending review. It is quite clear that
:02:45. > :02:48.deficit reduction is not getting any easier, even though the economy has
:02:49. > :02:52.been growing for some time. I thought it was interesting that even
:02:53. > :03:00.Nigel Lawson said the Chancellor may have to look if he wants to continue
:03:01. > :03:09.reducing the deficit, not just at spending cuts but tax rises. That is
:03:10. > :03:14.about having a surplus by 2020. It gives them very little room for
:03:15. > :03:18.manoeuvre. The big problem for the Tories in this Parliament, last
:03:19. > :03:22.parliament you had heavy cuts for councils which fell a lot on adult
:03:23. > :03:27.social care. A small number of people which hugely affected by
:03:28. > :03:31.that. The next round of cuts will mean a much larger group of people
:03:32. > :03:38.are affected. That is much harder to get past the public. It gets in a
:03:39. > :03:44.lot of money and a big revenue from the Government. Is that possible?
:03:45. > :03:50.There is logic to it, given to what has happened with oil prices. The
:03:51. > :03:54.logic is, low oil prices and the political logic will be, the gunmen
:03:55. > :04:00.will say, they have done enough on making fuel cheaper tax wise in
:04:01. > :04:04.recent years. They now have political room for manoeuvre on that
:04:05. > :04:08.issue. George Osborne is now boxed in, not just by the decision to aim
:04:09. > :04:12.for a surplus and the decision to aim for troubling pounds in welfare
:04:13. > :04:17.cuts, but also by the decision alluded to by Nigel Lawson to
:04:18. > :04:25.protect entire departments of spending, health service and foreign
:04:26. > :04:30.aid. Anything to do with people over 65. That leaves you with one option,
:04:31. > :04:34.to go to departments which have already made absolutely swingeing
:04:35. > :04:39.cuts over the last two years and ask for more. There is a perverse
:04:40. > :04:42.incentive that when the Treasury knows that for example local
:04:43. > :04:45.government or business is able to make very deep cuts, as they have
:04:46. > :04:50.done, those departments are awarded by being asked more cuts. There is a
:04:51. > :04:58.perverse incentive almost to hold out. George Osborne has a thoroughly
:04:59. > :05:01.consistent record. He will duff up the Labour Party and then implement
:05:02. > :05:08.the fiscal deficit reduction plan. In the last parliament he halved the
:05:09. > :05:12.overall fiscal deficit. In this Parliament he went into the election
:05:13. > :05:15.saying, I will run a 10 million surplus two years before the general
:05:16. > :05:20.election. He has all it is a laid back by one year. He has announced
:05:21. > :05:26.today the 10 billion has pretty much gone. He may run a surplus but it
:05:27. > :05:30.may be ?10 rather than 10 billion! That will be much closer to the Ed
:05:31. > :05:35.Balls plan. As Helen was saying, he has got himself into this mess
:05:36. > :05:41.because he set a trap for Ed Balls. There is a danger of just public
:05:42. > :05:47.weariness. I think the Treasury is worried about this. The mood of the
:05:48. > :05:53.public. We are into our sixth year and there is still 80 million to go.
:05:54. > :05:59.The public in Greece just got fed up. In Portugal a few weeks ago, the
:06:00. > :06:06.Portuguese economy was recovering well but the public got fed up. In
:06:07. > :06:12.the election campaign we heard about the long-term economic plan. If you
:06:13. > :06:17.asked people what that was, there are a few new. Most people assume
:06:18. > :06:23.that things were on the upside. They did not realise the cuts in the
:06:24. > :06:30.second term would be deeper. The comprehensive spending review will
:06:31. > :06:35.be live on BBC Two. It will be a political event. Let's move on to
:06:36. > :06:43.the Labour Party. We have the vote on Trident. SNP are putting it down
:06:44. > :06:50.and it is meant to be a trap for Labour. The leader it is against it
:06:51. > :06:57.but the party is in favour of it credible to say, just abstain? I
:06:58. > :07:01.think they will get away with it. It was set at conference but it cannot
:07:02. > :07:07.come onto the conference floor for three years. The Labour leader is
:07:08. > :07:13.completely opposed to it. He has said there is no compromise on it.
:07:14. > :07:18.He has had to make a series of compromises. No matter what Mr
:07:19. > :07:26.Corbyn and John McDonnell wants, they cannot change it for another
:07:27. > :07:30.three years? What happened at the Labour conference is they attempted
:07:31. > :07:37.to have it debated but they failed. It is up to the National policy
:07:38. > :07:40.Forum. This review is being chaired by Maria Eagle and Ken Livingstone
:07:41. > :07:46.for that they are looking at it and it will go to the National policy
:07:47. > :07:49.Forum to decide. That is a way of overruling what the existing rules
:07:50. > :07:53.are full you have a strange situation where Jeremy Corbyn wants
:07:54. > :07:58.to promote grassroots decision-making on things he agrees
:07:59. > :08:04.with. Not so much in this case. The point Caroline Flint was making, you
:08:05. > :08:07.cannot keep having free vote on such massive issues as to whether this
:08:08. > :08:11.country should have nuclear deterrent and whether we should
:08:12. > :08:16.extend the battle against Islamic State to Syria. You cannot have a
:08:17. > :08:20.huge disparity between leader and Parliamentary party on existential
:08:21. > :08:26.issues. What it leads to is the leader having to use flirted,
:08:27. > :08:30.surreptitiously methods to get his own way and negotiate around party
:08:31. > :08:35.policy. The ultimate example this week with getting Ken Livingstone,
:08:36. > :08:46.the famous defence expert, to have the defence review. Briefly, because
:08:47. > :08:50.I want to move on. If you get 60% of the vote in the leadership election,
:08:51. > :08:53.it is that at the fair to put your views forward. They need to make a
:08:54. > :08:58.decision by the time there is a big vote on Trident next year. The
:08:59. > :09:02.difficulties they hear and now. And that is Syria. The here and now is
:09:03. > :09:09.having an effect. We had a policy morning. One of the questions was
:09:10. > :09:19.about national-security. -- a poll this morning. Who do you think would
:09:20. > :09:24.keep you and your family safe? 39% trusted David Cameron and only 17%
:09:25. > :09:28.voted for Jeremy Corbyn. The point I put to Caroline Flint, this is
:09:29. > :09:30.dangerous for Labour. They already have a problem with economic
:09:31. > :09:38.security. That is one reason they did not win. To not be trusted
:09:39. > :09:44.national-security as well, it means it is well nigh impossible to win an
:09:45. > :09:51.election. There was a seductive narrative about patria to them with
:09:52. > :09:57.Jeremy Corbyn not singing with Queen -- not seeing the Queen 's speech. I
:09:58. > :10:00.think particularly in the aftermath of Paris, what people were looking
:10:01. > :10:04.to see from leaders were looking to see from leaders in summary. That is
:10:05. > :10:11.a huge problem. The problem also comes with the fact these polls are
:10:12. > :10:15.very bad. At this stage, Ed Miliband was doing better and that was, even
:10:16. > :10:19.then, people were talking about whether it would bring him down.
:10:20. > :10:24.Debts have a look at the state of the parties with the poll. I'm told
:10:25. > :10:27.this is the biggest Tory lead over Labour since John Major took over
:10:28. > :10:35.from Margaret Thatcher, 15 points. There we have the Tories on 42 and
:10:36. > :10:41.Labour down to 27. The Labour vote came down a couple of points. Ukip
:10:42. > :10:45.are still doing pretty well, at 15%. The Lib Dems are still
:10:46. > :10:54.flat-lining at 7%. The Scottish National 's get five. It means a lot
:10:55. > :11:02.more in Scotland. The Green party is down at 3% and going nowhere. At
:11:03. > :11:07.this stage of the process is it is not -- the process, it is not that
:11:08. > :11:11.important. Given all the problems we have had about tax credits and Tory
:11:12. > :11:17.difficulties, it is pretty disheartening. The last time the
:11:18. > :11:23.Labour Party scored 27% in a general election was under Baikal foot as
:11:24. > :11:28.leader. It has been a defining moment for Jeremy Corbyn and the
:11:29. > :11:33.Labour Party. -- under Michael Foot. You need to ensure the nation's
:11:34. > :11:38.finances are safe and national-security is safe. On the
:11:39. > :11:45.second one, is a nation secure in your hands? He appeared to be found
:11:46. > :11:51.wanting. You have a at a clown situation, what would you do? He
:11:52. > :11:59.equivocated and said, I would be an easy. -- a Bataclan Theatre
:12:00. > :12:05.situation. Only the next day did he finally set out the circumstances in
:12:06. > :12:08.which he would approve that type of response by the security services.
:12:09. > :12:14.The problem was his initial responses showed his instincts.
:12:15. > :12:19.Putting that in front of the British people, you will have a challenging
:12:20. > :12:22.time winning an election like that. The Parliamentary Labour Party has
:12:23. > :12:27.to be careful. They may not be in tune with the people in the country
:12:28. > :12:31.in the Labour Party who elected Mr Corbyn as leader. Although they are
:12:32. > :12:38.getting impatient, I would suggest they have to wait at least until May
:12:39. > :12:42.until the Scottish elections, the local government elections. They
:12:43. > :12:46.really cannot move before then, can they? They acknowledge he has a
:12:47. > :12:52.thumping great mandate from the election. A lot of those people have
:12:53. > :12:58.actually converted to being full party members. He still has a huge
:12:59. > :13:05.backing at grassroots level. The Mint is thriving and drawing in huge
:13:06. > :13:10.crowds of people. -- momentum is thriving. Even a later post was then
:13:11. > :13:16.they could come third in Scotland. They were saying Jeremy Corbyn is
:13:17. > :13:20.the 1 guy who could bring back the votes that were lost to SNP in
:13:21. > :13:27.recent years. By one warning to the Labour Party is, if you think 27% is
:13:28. > :13:35.low, wait until the public starts to focus on the next election? 27% is
:13:36. > :13:39.not the floor for Labour. We shall see. That is all for today.
:13:40. > :13:41.The Daily Politics will be back on BBC2 at noon tomorrow.
:13:42. > :13:46.And we'll be back again next weekend at the same time.
:13:47. > :13:50.We will be back to disentangle the spending review next Sunday at the
:13:51. > :13:53.same time. Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:54. > :13:59.it's the Sunday Politics.