06/12/2015

:00:39. > :00:42.Good morning, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:43. > :00:44.Police say they're treating a multiple stabbing in London

:00:45. > :00:54.as the the RAF intensifies its bombing campaign over Syria,

:00:55. > :00:57.is this the latest sign of an evolving threat on British streets?

:00:58. > :00:59.Labour scored a significant win at this week's Oldham by-election

:01:00. > :01:01.but after a tough week for Jeremy Corbyn

:01:02. > :01:05.there are more reports of smears, abuse and even talk of a purge.

:01:06. > :01:09.We'll be speaking to a member of the shadow cabinet.

:01:10. > :01:18.Later in the programme: that has its rebels,

:01:19. > :01:20.Will the latest airstrikes against so-called IS make us more

:01:21. > :01:32.Boris Johnson add cycling revolution on the ground in Syria?

:01:33. > :01:34.Boris Johnson add cycling revolution is proving controversial, is the

:01:35. > :01:39.mayor backing bikes over other road users?

:01:40. > :01:42.And joining me for all of that, three journalists who've dutifully

:01:43. > :01:48.battled through the wind and the rain to get here,

:01:49. > :01:50.even without the threat of a telling off from Andrew.

:01:51. > :01:52.It's Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh,

:01:53. > :01:54.and they'll be tweeting throughout the show.

:01:55. > :02:02.that police are treating an attack at a London underground station

:02:03. > :02:05.A man carrying a knife was reported to have screamed,

:02:06. > :02:08.as he injured three men at Leytonstone station

:02:09. > :02:14.making it potentially the first terrorist attack on British soil

:02:15. > :02:17.since the murder of fusilier Lee Rigby in 2013.

:02:18. > :02:18.Mobile phone footage shows police officers

:02:19. > :02:21.wrestling with a man after he had been tasered.

:02:22. > :02:24.He was later arrested and remains in custody.

:02:25. > :02:28.The Metropolitan Police said one man suffered serious knife injuries

:02:29. > :02:30.but was not thought to be in a life-threatening condition,

:02:31. > :02:37.while two other victims received minor injuries.

:02:38. > :02:39.Well, the Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith

:02:40. > :02:41.has this morning called the attack an "abomination",

:02:42. > :02:43.and we can speak now to the local MP John Cryer

:02:44. > :02:55.Your response? It is an appalling attack. And it is frightening, very

:02:56. > :02:59.frightening for local people. I've been talking to some of the local

:03:00. > :03:03.businesses this morning and obviously they are all very worried

:03:04. > :03:07.about it now. What the background is, what the motivation is, I do

:03:08. > :03:12.think it would be particularly helpful to speculate at the moment.

:03:13. > :03:17.-- I don't think it would be particularly helpful. So I'd rather

:03:18. > :03:22.not do that. But when something like this happens in your own area, it is

:03:23. > :03:25.not something expect. Leytonstone is a peaceful area, a lot of

:03:26. > :03:28.communities live together extremely peacefully and harmoniously, that's

:03:29. > :03:33.one of the great things about this area. People will be scared and

:03:34. > :03:38.understandably so, as you say, so what is your message to constituents

:03:39. > :03:42.as they wake up to this news? I think the message is that we carry

:03:43. > :03:48.on as normal, that we don't allow this sort of barbaric behaviour to

:03:49. > :03:54.change our lives. And I think that's the important thing. And I think

:03:55. > :03:57.people will continue as well. I'm not saying people will be blase

:03:58. > :04:02.about it, people will be very concerned. But I don't think people

:04:03. > :04:05.will allow this to change the way they live their lives on a

:04:06. > :04:10.day-to-day basis, that's the impression I've had from the people

:04:11. > :04:13.I've been talking to this morning. Now, this has happened just days

:04:14. > :04:19.after parliament voted for air strikes in Syria, people are bound,

:04:20. > :04:25.rightly or wrongly to draw a link between the two, what say you?

:04:26. > :04:29.Welcome I was opposed to the air strikes in Syria, I voted against

:04:30. > :04:33.air strikes in Syria, I think it will prove to be quite a major

:04:34. > :04:38.mistake. I am not convinced that this will be connected to the air

:04:39. > :04:44.strikes in Syria. Well I just don't know at the moment so we can only

:04:45. > :04:48.speculate. But there doesn't seem to be immediately evidence that there

:04:49. > :04:52.is a direct link. But we have to find out what the background is.

:04:53. > :04:55.Police are investigating. I have been in contact with police this

:04:56. > :05:00.morning. At I think it would be dangerous to say this is a direct

:05:01. > :05:04.consequence of air strikes in Syria. And as I say I am a fairly major

:05:05. > :05:07.critic of the government's activities. Thank you.

:05:08. > :05:09.This comes after the so-called Islamic State

:05:10. > :05:11.claimed a husband and wife who massacred 14 people

:05:12. > :05:17.were supporters of the terrorist group.

:05:18. > :05:21.So is this just the latest sign that the West faces a new type of threat?

:05:22. > :05:25.Well, we're joined now by the security expert Will Geddes.

:05:26. > :05:30.At the moment it looks like a lone wolf, no accomplices, no

:05:31. > :05:35.organisation in any major way behind it, is that how you read it? I think

:05:36. > :05:39.pretty much so. It is incredibly difficult to say right now and again

:05:40. > :05:43.it is dangerous to speculate too much until the police have

:05:44. > :05:46.undertaken their investigations to determine how this individual was

:05:47. > :05:51.motivated, under what particular an brother that might have been,

:05:52. > :05:55.whether it was alone, whether it was a self radicalisation process --

:05:56. > :06:02.what particular an umbrella that might have been. We have been

:06:03. > :06:06.expecting an attack because we have had the Paris attacks, we have had

:06:07. > :06:10.the attacks in Southern California, and there had been warnings about

:06:11. > :06:15.it, and the terror threat is still extremely high. So we shouldn't be

:06:16. > :06:19.that surprised. No, I don't think we are. And I think we are accepting

:06:20. > :06:23.the fact that unfortunately we are at a very high risk level intervals

:06:24. > :06:28.of these types of attacks. And this precedes the Syrian bombing

:06:29. > :06:31.agreements in terms of the fact that there were seven significant plots

:06:32. > :06:36.foiled this year. We have always been on the radar, it is just down

:06:37. > :06:40.to the capabilities of the individuals. Sadly, certainly in the

:06:41. > :06:43.wake of this most recent incident, it will be the platform of lone

:06:44. > :06:47.wolves more than anything else. Do you think that is the case? That is

:06:48. > :06:52.the most recent pattern, that might be what continues in, unfortunately,

:06:53. > :06:56.capitals across Europe? I think we have to be pragmatic and accept

:06:57. > :07:01.that. Ultimately we know that the individuals that are planning as

:07:02. > :07:05.cells have a far higher chance of detection. So individuals working on

:07:06. > :07:08.their own, whether it be in a very specific conceptual sort of agenda

:07:09. > :07:18.and motivation or whether it be an individual that is simply aligned to

:07:19. > :07:21.the ideologies of Daesh will add to the spectrum of Brett. Nick Watt,

:07:22. > :07:26.what do you think the little reaction will be? We have had some

:07:27. > :07:29.reaction from Jon Cryer saying stay vigilant but don't be blase. That

:07:30. > :07:34.was an incredibly important contribution you had from John

:07:35. > :07:37.Cryer, he is not just the local MP, E is the chairman of the

:07:38. > :07:41.Parliamentary party. In that capacity Jeremy Corbyn invites him

:07:42. > :07:47.to attend the Shadow Cabinet. He voted against air strikes and he is

:07:48. > :07:50.being held up as how the majority of opinion in the Labour Party is

:07:51. > :07:54.against air strikes. He was absolutely clear saying it would be

:07:55. > :07:58.dangerous to say that this attack in Leytonstone is in any way linked to

:07:59. > :08:01.the vote in parliament. The reason why that is significant is that

:08:02. > :08:05.there will be some people and indeed we are already seeing some people on

:08:06. > :08:09.Twitter saying that this attack in Leytonstone is as a result of that

:08:10. > :08:12.vote. Well, the chairman of the PLP who voted against the air strikes

:08:13. > :08:16.said it would be dangerous to make that conclusion. But people will

:08:17. > :08:19.make those links and they will continue to do so particularly in

:08:20. > :08:23.the light of Michael Fallon saying the bombing campaign is intensifying

:08:24. > :08:28.in Syria and there are likely to be civilian cavities. They may well do

:08:29. > :08:33.so but what strikes me about this attack, is awful and horrible as it

:08:34. > :08:37.is for everybody involved, is that it is a rather pathetic and little

:08:38. > :08:42.attack. Very happily the victim, as we understand it, is not going to

:08:43. > :08:45.die as a result of this attack. What strikes me is, were we in America

:08:46. > :08:49.and were the people who are prone to do these things able to get their

:08:50. > :08:54.hands on guns, this would have been a mass casualties could well have

:08:55. > :08:58.been a mass casualties attack. As it was, we're left with somebody just

:08:59. > :09:02.randomly stabbing and not really getting anywhere. Do you think

:09:03. > :09:08.people are ready for how long this campaign is going to go on for, and

:09:09. > :09:11.we are going to live in the shadow indirectly or directly of a

:09:12. > :09:15.terrorist threat? I don't know if people are ready for just Syria or

:09:16. > :09:20.maybe five years worth of security being one of the top three issues in

:09:21. > :09:24.the country. If you look at the issues index, most salient to voters

:09:25. > :09:28.in recent years, it has been the usual economy, NHS, immigration to a

:09:29. > :09:31.certain extent. I wonder whether, by the time of the next election

:09:32. > :09:36.because of this fairly consistent terror threat, security is even

:09:37. > :09:39.number one, two or three. We've got the investigatory Powers Bill going

:09:40. > :09:43.through Parliament at the moment and I think that kind of legislation,

:09:44. > :09:48.the presence of a terror threat, the kind of thing that is on the evening

:09:49. > :09:52.news might overnight over five years will change what we consider to be

:09:53. > :09:56.the most salient issues in British issues -- night after night. There

:09:57. > :10:00.had been reports that one of the Paris attackers had travelled to

:10:01. > :10:03.Britain earlier this year, and the chair of the Home Affairs Select

:10:04. > :10:06.Committee said it is a real worry that people are able to get through

:10:07. > :10:11.our borders without being detected. How worried are you by those

:10:12. > :10:14.reports? I think we are playing a bit of a catch-up game and

:10:15. > :10:18.unfortunately we have to appreciate it many capabilities in tens of the

:10:19. > :10:23.border force a Metropolitan Police and police agencies across the UK.

:10:24. > :10:25.Although there have been positive suggestions by the government in

:10:26. > :10:29.terms of boosting numbers within the security services, for example, you

:10:30. > :10:36.are still looking at approximately 18 months before those 1900 new

:10:37. > :10:40.heads within GCHQ and security services will be operationally able

:10:41. > :10:43.to fulfil their mission. Briefly on the police numbers, also a very

:10:44. > :10:47.controversial issue in terms of the spending review, that didn't happen,

:10:48. > :10:53.the cuts that people feared, the government will be relieved they did

:10:54. > :10:56.not make those cuts? Iain Duncan Smith in condemning these attackers

:10:57. > :10:59.as an abomination made that exact point, saying we kept those police

:11:00. > :11:01.numbers and they will be important in terms of attacking the terrorist

:11:02. > :11:02.threat. Now, the Prime Minister had hoped to

:11:03. > :11:05.sign off his plans for a renegotiation of Britain's EU

:11:06. > :11:08.membership later this month. have decided not give him an early

:11:09. > :11:11.Christmas present, and that means the referendum on

:11:12. > :11:24.whatever deal he does get Last month David Cameron sent a

:11:25. > :11:29.letter to Donald Tusk, president of the European Council setting out the

:11:30. > :11:33.EU reform demands. There were four main areas he once renegotiated.

:11:34. > :11:38.Protection for non-Europe countries and safeguarding their rights.

:11:39. > :11:42.Exemption from an ever closer union. And more powers for national

:11:43. > :11:48.parliaments. Restore competitiveness in the EU which involves cutting red

:11:49. > :11:52.tape and free trade agreements with other economies. And finally, the

:11:53. > :11:56.one causing the most headaches, restricting benefits for EU

:11:57. > :11:59.migrants. Under the Prime Minister's plans, EU migrants would

:12:00. > :12:05.not be able to claim any in work benefits for four years. On Thursday

:12:06. > :12:08.David Cameron abandoned hopes for an early referendum as early as May

:12:09. > :12:13.next year after admitting he would not be able to get the deal he wants

:12:14. > :12:16.at an EU summit in two weeks' time. Donald Tusk will on Monday published

:12:17. > :12:22.an assessment of the British demands in a letter to the 27 other member

:12:23. > :12:26.states. It follows a round of confessionals in which governments

:12:27. > :12:29.have outlined their concerns. He said December's meeting will pave

:12:30. > :12:37.the way for a deal in February. By then David Cameron will be forced to

:12:38. > :12:39.decide whether to campaign for a Brexit or stay in the EU.

:12:40. > :12:43.and committed eurosceptic Iain Duncan Smith

:12:44. > :12:45.has been speaking on The Andrew Marr show this morning,

:12:46. > :12:48.and he said the delay was a sign of strength, not weakness.

:12:49. > :12:55.Well the mood is actually very upbeat. I'm involved in putting

:12:56. > :12:58.together the package that the Prime Minister wants to take to the

:12:59. > :13:01.council. So we've been deep in discussion about that. The Prime

:13:02. > :13:05.Minister has been pretty clear throughout that he wants to take a

:13:06. > :13:09.package that supports the manifesto commitment. In my area for example

:13:10. > :13:12.on welfare it is very clear that he wants to have that commitment,

:13:13. > :13:14.people living here and contributing to the system, and that will be one

:13:15. > :13:16.of the key elements. We did ask for a government minister

:13:17. > :13:21.to talk to us about the prime minister's renegotiation plans

:13:22. > :13:23.but were told none was available. we can speak instead to the

:13:24. > :13:26.Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin, of the eurosceptic Conservatives

:13:27. > :13:29.For Britain group and he joins us

:13:30. > :13:40.from our Westminster studio. Welcome to the programme. Are you as

:13:41. > :13:48.upbeat and optimistic as Iain Duncan Smith? No. Ironic, really, because

:13:49. > :13:52.he and I were elected on the same day in 1992 and we both opposed the

:13:53. > :14:02.Maastricht Treaty. We both spare about the direction of the European

:14:03. > :14:06.Union. -- we both despair. And while he is gamely supporting the Prime

:14:07. > :14:11.Minister's negotiation in its centre is, I think he knows in his heart

:14:12. > :14:14.that this is a very lame renegotiation compared to what the

:14:15. > :14:18.Prime Minister was originally promising. I mean, there are a whole

:14:19. > :14:26.range of things that the Prime Minister wanted, like getting out of

:14:27. > :14:31.all the home affairs and justice revisions of the Lisbon Treaty, like

:14:32. > :14:35.getting a complete opt out of the EU Charter of fundamental rights, which

:14:36. > :14:40.is, for example, gives the power to the European court of justice to

:14:41. > :14:41.decide prisoner voting and not just the European Court of Human Rights,

:14:42. > :14:48.and so it goes on. But, you know, you know Iain Duncan

:14:49. > :14:53.Smith well, he is not known as a raging Europhile, and if he is

:14:54. > :14:59.optimistic and competent, certainly, publicly, the chances of a

:15:00. > :15:02.meaningful deal of a deal with Europe, -- meaningful chance of a

:15:03. > :15:07.deal with Europe, then why cannot you be? He is bound by his duty to

:15:08. > :15:12.the cabinet, but I am free to speak my mind, Iain Duncan Smith focus

:15:13. > :15:18.very narrowly on a very circular way, on his own, on the Prime

:15:19. > :15:26.Minister's own terms of reference. The European Union has changed so

:15:27. > :15:29.dramatically over the last 20 or 30 years, the question the British

:15:30. > :15:32.people are going to have to face, do they want to carry on with this

:15:33. > :15:34.journey? There is no status quo, is they want to carry on with the

:15:35. > :15:38.journey of integration, because what the prime ministers negotiating

:15:39. > :15:42.about, will not change the course of the European Union or the course of

:15:43. > :15:47.the United Kingdom within the European Union. They are relatively

:15:48. > :15:51.trivial, rather complicated, but relatively trivial negotiating

:15:52. > :15:56.demands. He's going to get the deal by February. Even if he gets the

:15:57. > :16:00.deal by February, it will not change the price of fish, it will not allow

:16:01. > :16:04.the UK Parliament to determine our own laws and it will not restrict

:16:05. > :16:07.the European court of justice, another of the Prime Minister's

:16:08. > :16:15.demands that he has now dropped. It will not restore the opt out of the

:16:16. > :16:19.social chapter, which was gained by John Major in the Maastricht Treaty,

:16:20. > :16:24.it will not achieve any of these things. There was never going to be

:16:25. > :16:28.enough concessions... I am glad you are making the point that this

:16:29. > :16:32.renegotiation was never really going to address the fundamental

:16:33. > :16:40.problems... Or, you were never going to be satisfied! The Prime Minister

:16:41. > :16:45.was making these much tougher demands. He has dropped these

:16:46. > :16:48.demands. I would be supporting the Prime Minister's negotiating

:16:49. > :16:51.position if he had stuck to his demands. Which one in particular, if

:16:52. > :16:54.there was one thing you would like to see him bring back which you

:16:55. > :16:59.could sell to your constituents, what would it be? The fundamental

:17:00. > :17:04.one, restrict the ability of the European Court of Justice to rule on

:17:05. > :17:09.almost anything. Risen a voting, I mentioned, it is now moving to that

:17:10. > :17:12.area. And the whole question of the relationship between those countries

:17:13. > :17:15.that do not want to be in political union, do not want to be involuntary

:17:16. > :17:20.union, do not want to be in the fiscal union treaty which has been

:17:21. > :17:25.redesigned by the call Eurozone states. -- prisoner voting. What we

:17:26. > :17:29.have got to face, this is not a status quo we are voting to stay in,

:17:30. > :17:33.it is a continuing development of European Union integration, if you

:17:34. > :17:42.want to have choices, you must vote Leave. It has been reported that the

:17:43. > :17:46.campaign will campaign for Brexit. LAUGHTER

:17:47. > :17:51.Would you welcome him leading the campaign from the out? You have

:17:52. > :17:58.laughed... We would welcome him joining the vote to leave campaign,

:17:59. > :18:02.but I don't think it is very likely, at the moment he is convincing

:18:03. > :18:07.people he's being really tough but we know that this is what happens in

:18:08. > :18:11.all EU negotiations, the government pretends to be tough, pretends to be

:18:12. > :18:15.a showdown, and in the end, hey presto, rabbit out of the hat,

:18:16. > :18:19.everything is marvellous. Game set and match for the British. Is there

:18:20. > :18:24.any thing, do you think, that Iain Duncan Smith will be able to sell

:18:25. > :18:31.once this renegotiation is done and dusted? Sell to the backbench... ? I

:18:32. > :18:35.doubt it, I think... As Bernard has suggested, in January, 2013, when

:18:36. > :18:38.David Cameron talked about renegotiation, he meant something

:18:39. > :18:41.sweeping, even in addition to the thing is Bernard has mentioned, even

:18:42. > :18:45.including flirting with the idea of some deep reform to European free

:18:46. > :18:48.movement, that was what was being suggested two years ago. There is

:18:49. > :18:54.not going to be anything approaching any of that in any deal that urges

:18:55. > :18:57.early next year. As it stands a number of backbenchers will find

:18:58. > :19:02.that hard to support. Tactic from Downing Street, to leak the idea

:19:03. > :19:05.that David Cameron might conceivably support the leave campaign, slightly

:19:06. > :19:10.misjudged, so transparent the obvious that he will not. If

:19:11. > :19:15.anything, it was a message sent to other European capitals, " if I

:19:16. > :19:24.don't do that smack if you do not do this deal, I may join the sceptics.

:19:25. > :19:30.-- if you do not do this deal". I agree with Jan, nobody will take

:19:31. > :19:33.seriously the idea that he will campaign for out because

:19:34. > :19:36.fundamentally that is not what he believes, he wants to stay in and

:19:37. > :19:41.has said seven the beginning. Bernard is right, there is a feeling

:19:42. > :19:46.that the renegotiation will only achieve something rather cosmetic.

:19:47. > :19:49.-- and has said so since the beginning. David Cameron may pull a

:19:50. > :19:54.rabbit out of a hat and pretend that he has got a concession but people

:19:55. > :19:56.will not be convinced. I leave it to Nick to stick up for the Prime

:19:57. > :19:59.Minister in this particular instance, what would the rabbit in

:20:00. > :20:05.the hat, the rabbit coming out of the hat, be, for David Cameron, once

:20:06. > :20:11.this deal is done and dusted. It will be examined as rabbit, because

:20:12. > :20:14.we will know about it! He cannot go beyond what he wrote in the letter

:20:15. > :20:19.to Donald Tusk, the rabbit that he takes out of a hat which says, isn't

:20:20. > :20:23.this amazing, isn't opt out from the historic commitment to ever closer

:20:24. > :20:26.union, he will say it is significant... He will say it has an

:20:27. > :20:30.impact on the European Court of judgment rulings, but the point is,

:20:31. > :20:36.first, we know that is what he wants to achieve, and also, people like

:20:37. > :20:40.Bernard, and we can see he is nodding (!), he will say this is

:20:41. > :20:45.just a cosmetic change, it is not going to change the fundamental

:20:46. > :20:51.privacy of EU law over EU law. -- fundamental primacy of EU law over

:20:52. > :20:54.UK law. If there were a concession on in work benefits, many people

:20:55. > :21:01.feel that is impossible, bearing in mind the laws, would that satisfy

:21:02. > :21:03.you? It would not, in the end, the European Court of Justice will

:21:04. > :21:08.always have the power to overturn Teva has been agreed, the problem

:21:09. > :21:11.the Prime Minister has got, he started at the beginning with

:21:12. > :21:16.grappling with quite some big things, but refusing to argue with

:21:17. > :21:20.the overall architecture of the European Union. -- grappling with

:21:21. > :21:24.some quite big things. If you do not change the architecture, nothing

:21:25. > :21:28.will really change, except that the European Union will carry on

:21:29. > :21:32.morphing into a state and we will be part of that, whether we are in out

:21:33. > :21:36.of the Euro, ever closer treaty in the treaty -- ever closer union in

:21:37. > :21:39.the treaty, not in the treaty, whatever. Thank you very much for

:21:40. > :21:43.joining us. The real substance being debated

:21:44. > :21:47.by MPs in the Commons on Wednesday may have been whether to extend air

:21:48. > :21:50.strikes into Syria but it was the conflict inside

:21:51. > :21:52.Jeremy Corbyn's party that ended up

:21:53. > :21:54.grabbing just as many headlines. Even when the party finally arrived

:21:55. > :21:56.at a position, it couldn't heal the rift between

:21:57. > :22:01.the leader and some of his MPs. The party received

:22:02. > :22:02.a much-needed boost with a comfortable majority

:22:03. > :22:05.in Thursday's by-election. So when it comes to Jeremy Corbyn's

:22:06. > :22:07.Labour, just what do the voters

:22:08. > :22:19.make of it all? Labour won the old by-election and

:22:20. > :22:22.comfortable, there are majority was reduced but they increased their

:22:23. > :22:27.share of the vote, Jeremy Corbyn says it shows that Labour is

:22:28. > :22:30.electoral. We, with the help of the pollen company populace, have

:22:31. > :22:34.gathered together a group of people that once voted Labour but did not

:22:35. > :22:39.at the last election. We are going to hear of what they think of the

:22:40. > :22:42.new Labour Party and behind this screen, we have two seasoned Labour

:22:43. > :22:48.advisers to pass comment on what they hear. Vets get started. --

:22:49. > :22:52.polling company Populous. -- let's get started. All of the former

:22:53. > :22:56.Labour voters are from London, and at the general election they spread

:22:57. > :23:01.their approach to Ukip, the greens, conservatives and Lib Dem, all of

:23:02. > :23:04.them felt Labour lost their vote over the economy, Ed Miliband and

:23:05. > :23:09.being out of touch. What do they make of Labour today? -- Greens.

:23:10. > :23:13.They are moving in the right direction, with a charismatic

:23:14. > :23:24.leader, whose policies seem to be standing up for the average man. I

:23:25. > :23:30.disagree, no disrespect, for me, I am quite a middle ground person,

:23:31. > :23:36.going from the left to the right, they have gone far too left for me.

:23:37. > :23:41.For me they are unelectable. He is very principled, I respect him for

:23:42. > :23:46.that but I do not agree with his policies, particularly defence.

:23:47. > :23:52.Initial impressions? Did people know who he was before he became the

:23:53. > :23:58.Labour leader? I had not. Had you heard of him? I had heard of him...

:23:59. > :24:03.He seems principled, compassionate... He has used a term,

:24:04. > :24:12.the new politics... Have you heard that? Yes... Do you know what he

:24:13. > :24:17.means? Not specifically, I presume he means a different attitude

:24:18. > :24:23.towards leading the party and the way they make decisions perhaps.

:24:24. > :24:31.It goes back to the same problem, if you have a vague catchphrase and no

:24:32. > :24:36.substance behind it... Maybe I am not seeing the strong leadership --

:24:37. > :24:40.leadership capability, I understand he's principled, but as a leader of

:24:41. > :24:43.the country, I am not convinced. Does that sound like a good way of

:24:44. > :24:48.changing things, giving them more freedom in the way that they vote?

:24:49. > :24:53.It brings a more human feel, does not feel like everyone is a robot,

:24:54. > :24:56.all of us in this room, we could all be voting for Labour but we would

:24:57. > :25:02.all have different opinions on things. That is... That is a human,

:25:03. > :25:07.you know, that is human nature. I think the fact that is being

:25:08. > :25:11.respected, that is good. But, keeping it in line, how he's going

:25:12. > :25:18.to manage that, that may be a problem. That woman has some up the

:25:19. > :25:27.nub of the problem! That is pretty much their position right now. This

:25:28. > :25:31.is a video clip... I'm not happy with the shoot to kill policy in

:25:32. > :25:42.general, I think that is quite dangerous. That is woolly. You

:25:43. > :25:50.cannot go from principled to Willy and evasive, that is a problem. --

:25:51. > :25:57.woolly and evasive. You need crystal clear clarity on security issues.

:25:58. > :26:01.You need to give somebody a bit of time, let them lace up their running

:26:02. > :26:06.shoes (!), they find their own pace, and they get a little bit of time.

:26:07. > :26:11.It is early days, he has just started in the job. In time, he will

:26:12. > :26:21.show, you know, a lot of strength will stop courage, I think. Why not

:26:22. > :26:24.vote Labour this time? -- a lot of strength and courage. Labour was

:26:25. > :26:29.giving benefits left right and centre, if somebody needs them,

:26:30. > :26:34.fine, but they were in so much debt, the country was getting further and

:26:35. > :26:39.further into debt. There was no end to it. Do you know the if Jeremy

:26:40. > :26:47.Corbyn and John Madonna's government would spend more money, would they

:26:48. > :26:53.put up taxes? -- do you know if they Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell

:26:54. > :26:57.government. I bet there is not a single specific about how it is

:26:58. > :27:02.different. Despite the debate about austerity. They have not mentioned

:27:03. > :27:10.that word once. The fact Labour have not articulated anything... They

:27:11. > :27:14.have asked a leading question, so not to give that response, that

:27:15. > :27:20.suggest, well,... We will not make up our minds... We do not know...

:27:21. > :27:25.These people are not the British electorate, nor can they alone give

:27:26. > :27:30.Labour a victory, but there will be plenty to note, as lost Labour

:27:31. > :27:31.voters, they seem prepared to give Labour and Jeremy Corbyn time to bed

:27:32. > :27:37.in. STUDIO: And I'm joined in the studio

:27:38. > :27:39.now by the Shadow Work and Pensions

:27:40. > :27:44.secretary, Owen Smith. We have had plenty of evidence from

:27:45. > :27:48.the pollsters, you saw and heard some of it, at the last election

:27:49. > :27:51.Labour was not trusted on the economy, particularly when it came

:27:52. > :27:56.to managing the welfare bill, do you think you are on the way to learning

:27:57. > :28:01.that trust? If you take the evidence of the poll that matters, the poll

:28:02. > :28:06.with the people, looking at Oldham, then perhaps we are winning back

:28:07. > :28:10.trust. There is no doubt we did not have it at the last election, that

:28:11. > :28:17.is why Labour lost and lost badly, but we did win a victory on Thursday

:28:18. > :28:20.in Oldham, up 10%, the Tories were down 10%. Perhaps we are in the

:28:21. > :28:24.foothills of starting to win back trust. I recognise and Jeremy Ross

:28:25. > :28:29.recognises we have a long way to go, almost five years until the next

:28:30. > :28:35.election and we will have to put in place policies and ideas to win back

:28:36. > :28:38.trust fully. -- Jeremy recognises. It was a Labour victory but that is

:28:39. > :28:44.a Labour heartland, you should not be surprised that you did well

:28:45. > :28:47.somewhere like Oldham, that is despite the policies of the national

:28:48. > :28:51.party, you could say, it you could say it is because of a strong Labour

:28:52. > :28:55.parliament, that is not a Nuneaton which you need to win back. But in

:28:56. > :28:59.the media we were talking about lots of suggestions that Labour was going

:29:00. > :29:06.to lose that seat, or if we win, we would win only by 1000. Labour MPs

:29:07. > :29:10.themselves were saying that! That is my point. But the pollsters were

:29:11. > :29:15.certainly saying in their view, we were likely to struggle. For us to

:29:16. > :29:19.hold it as well as we did, increase the share of the vote from last time

:29:20. > :29:23.around, 11,000 majority, you cannot say anything other than it was a

:29:24. > :29:28.good victory for Labour. I think it has to be a vindication both of Jim

:29:29. > :29:32.McMahon, the excellent candidate, now the MP for old, a good local guy

:29:33. > :29:38.who has been a council leader, very well respected. -- Oldham. The kind

:29:39. > :29:43.of community-based politicians that we produce in labour. -- community

:29:44. > :29:47.rooted politicians. But also a vindication of Jeremy Corbyn and the

:29:48. > :29:50.rebuilding of trust. Nobody in Oldham can be in any doubts as to

:29:51. > :29:56.who is the leader of the Labour Party right now!

:29:57. > :30:02.Let's talk about welfare, we heard the lady saying Labour was giving

:30:03. > :30:06.benefits left, right and centre and leaving the country in so much debt,

:30:07. > :30:09.how do you address that? Well, I think we've got to start by doing

:30:10. > :30:12.what we did not do well enough under the last parliament which is call

:30:13. > :30:17.out the line from the Tory party that the dead this country were in

:30:18. > :30:23.and are still in, let's not forget the Tories have practically doubled

:30:24. > :30:27.debt. Let's talk about welfare specifically. Happy to. The Labour

:30:28. > :30:32.Party under Harriet Harman clearly felt it should move closer to the

:30:33. > :30:36.Conservatives on welfare and not further away, the party did not vote

:30:37. > :30:39.against their bill introducing ?12 billion of saving and Harriet Harman

:30:40. > :30:44.said she was sympathetic to lowering the benefits cap. You did not vote

:30:45. > :30:52.against the limit on child tax credits for two children. In that

:30:53. > :30:55.vote we definitely were wrong and that's why Labour has now voted

:30:56. > :31:01.against the welfare bill, and the reason for that is the reason many

:31:02. > :31:04.people in this country, I think, have started to turn against the

:31:05. > :31:08.Conservative Party. Because the tax credit changes that were at the

:31:09. > :31:12.heart of that bill, and the heart of the ?12 billion savings. At you knew

:31:13. > :31:17.about the tax credit bill and you were still in favour of a benefit

:31:18. > :31:20.cap, at the time you were still in favour of lowering the benefit cap

:31:21. > :31:25.and you wanted to limit it to child tax credits to two children. So was

:31:26. > :31:30.that all a complete aberration? Well, as I said, I think those were

:31:31. > :31:34.the wrong decisions. I actually argued within the Shadow Cabinet at

:31:35. > :31:37.the time against our abstaining on that vote. I said in my conference

:31:38. > :31:41.speech a couple of months ago that this is no time for the Labour Party

:31:42. > :31:46.to be abstaining on whether we make poor people, working people, poorer,

:31:47. > :31:50.in this country. People want the Labour Party to stand up for working

:31:51. > :31:54.people. What is your evidence for saying people want you to do that?

:31:55. > :31:59.Harriet Harman announced that Labour did not oppose limiting tax credits

:32:00. > :32:03.to two children because she said, we simply cannot say to the public that

:32:04. > :32:09.you were wrong at the election. So who is representing the people here?

:32:10. > :32:13.We might point to Heidi Allen, who you have got on the programme later,

:32:14. > :32:17.or any of the other 20 or 30 Tory MPs who stood up against their own

:32:18. > :32:22.Prime Minister just a few weeks ago. On tax credits? Saying that they got

:32:23. > :32:25.it wrong on tax credits. The Tories describe that as welfare spending,

:32:26. > :32:30.that was part of their ?12 billion at the election. It is entirely

:32:31. > :32:34.legitimate for me to talk about that. Of course it is but it is not

:32:35. > :32:39.just that. You said people want us to do this and I am trying to get

:32:40. > :32:42.from you the evidence for that. Yes on tax credits but more broadly on

:32:43. > :32:48.Labour's perception of people on Labour with welfare. We have seen

:32:49. > :32:51.leaks from polling from Labour's learning the lessons task force

:32:52. > :32:55.chaired by Margaret Beckett in which people said Labour was in full to

:32:56. > :32:59.the undeserving, it needs to be for middle-class voters not just down

:33:00. > :33:01.and outs. And a Labour win would have been good for people on

:33:02. > :33:07.benefits and immigrants, anyone claiming money. How will you win an

:33:08. > :33:11.election if people only see you as representing those groups? Well,

:33:12. > :33:16.we've got to win an election because those groups and low and middle

:33:17. > :33:21.income earners in Britain, the very people being hit by tax credit cuts

:33:22. > :33:24.and now the universal credit cuts that are coming down the stream next

:33:25. > :33:28.year, need a Labour government in order to introduce fairness. They

:33:29. > :33:33.also want to know that we are in favour of free-form. There is no

:33:34. > :33:39.doubting that. Where is the evidence for that? -- in favour of reform.

:33:40. > :33:42.This is your own polling and it is not in line with what the public

:33:43. > :33:47.want or how they view you. That's what I just said. In addition to

:33:48. > :33:50.supporting in work benefits for people who are in low and middle

:33:51. > :33:56.income jobs, like tax credits and universal credit, we also need to be

:33:57. > :34:00.making an argument for reform. Do you accept you are not doing that?

:34:01. > :34:04.Well I think we are only just starting to do that. I'm going to be

:34:05. > :34:08.announcing in the New Year a big new commission by the Labour Party to

:34:09. > :34:13.look at Social Security, to try to present a Labour alternative,

:34:14. > :34:15.reformed social security system. There is no doubt that for

:34:16. > :34:23.generations people have increasingly become Miss trust for of the social

:34:24. > :34:28.securities system -- distrusting of the Social Security system. We need

:34:29. > :34:31.to win back people's trust. It should be a massive positive for our

:34:32. > :34:38.country that we have a generous welfare state, it is a positive.

:34:39. > :34:42.Which policy decisions so far are going to back up that idea of reform

:34:43. > :34:47.rather than people's idea that you are only four people on benefits if

:34:48. > :34:51.you are trying to your appeal? And you have talked about tax credits,

:34:52. > :34:56.but if you want to lower the benefit cap, if you now don't want to limit

:34:57. > :35:00.tax credits, which policy areas now back up what you've just said about

:35:01. > :35:04.reform? Well, we've said very clearly that we support the

:35:05. > :35:11.government in capping the overall spending on social security. And the

:35:12. > :35:16.benefit cap? Well, the benefit cap, interestingly, I think we've

:35:17. > :35:21.reserved judgment on. But it was only two weeks ago... That wasn't

:35:22. > :35:26.your view. Let me finish, if I may. Two weeks ago we had a legal opinion

:35:27. > :35:29.from a judge in London that the benefit cap was discriminating

:35:30. > :35:32.against disabled people. There is further evidence that the benefit

:35:33. > :35:34.cap is not doing what the government set out to do, it is not saving

:35:35. > :35:39.money because it means local councils are having to spend money

:35:40. > :35:43.on discretionary housing payments to support people being made homeless

:35:44. > :35:47.as a result of it. It isn't helping people back into work. It's only

:35:48. > :35:51.around 4% of people seem to be getting any benefit. So the question

:35:52. > :35:55.is, what is this benefit cap for in individual households? Yes we need

:35:56. > :35:58.of course to have a limit on the amount of money that people can have

:35:59. > :36:03.individually and as households but it has to reflect need. Well, that's

:36:04. > :36:08.important, because listening to you there, it sounded like you wanted to

:36:09. > :36:12.drop the idea of a benefit cap in principle. So you still support the

:36:13. > :36:17.idea of a benefit cap at ?26,000 per year? No we don't. But you did at

:36:18. > :36:21.the election support it? At the election we did, and since the

:36:22. > :36:26.election we have changed our view. Our view is that cutting it to

:36:27. > :36:30.?23,000 and ?20,000 which is what was included in the welfare bill,

:36:31. > :36:34.I'm afraid it is a congregated lot of numbers but we've got to get into

:36:35. > :36:37.them, that would mean that we would affect literally millions of people

:36:38. > :36:41.across Britain and it would have resulted in hardship and would have

:36:42. > :36:45.cost money. What should the cap be? We need to get back to a principle

:36:46. > :36:48.that people use to understand which is the connection between the sorts

:36:49. > :36:53.of support that you might receive from the state, the amount of money

:36:54. > :36:58.you contribute, so getting back a connection between contribution and

:36:59. > :37:02.reward, but also your need. So if you've got three children, or if you

:37:03. > :37:05.fall pregnant in a period where you lose your job, you don't get

:37:06. > :37:10.penalised for having that said child. It seems to me extraordinary

:37:11. > :37:15.that the government is penalising children. You are not supporting a

:37:16. > :37:18.cap at the moment? You cannot say ?26,000 was right, you are now

:37:19. > :37:22.reviewing the whole policy? You agree with Jeremy Corbyn that it

:37:23. > :37:26.results in social cleansing? I have been saying that for the last two

:37:27. > :37:29.months, there is nothing new that. We said we would oppose the

:37:30. > :37:33.reduction. When I spoke to you last time on daily politics you said you

:37:34. > :37:38.would stick to the principle of the benefits cap. I did not. You said in

:37:39. > :37:42.September that you wanted to have a benefit cap, in principle you did

:37:43. > :37:46.not agree with lowering it to ?23,000, and Jeremy Corbyn was

:37:47. > :37:51.against it. What I said very clearly, we were opposed to the

:37:52. > :37:54.reduction to ?23,000 and ?20,000 outside London. I said we were

:37:55. > :37:59.reviewing the concept of a benefits cap across the board. But that we do

:38:00. > :38:04.accept that there have to be limits on the amount of money that an

:38:05. > :38:07.individual households can get in benefits. And what we need to do is

:38:08. > :38:11.get to a point where we've got a much fairer set of criteria to now

:38:12. > :38:18.analyse and understand why we should be giving family X amount Y, and

:38:19. > :38:22.that should reflect their need. The number of children, the nature of

:38:23. > :38:26.work they are in, and the relative security of the family. The

:38:27. > :38:29.fundamental principles we have always adhered to. Most viewers out

:38:30. > :38:32.there will not understand a government that says we penalised

:38:33. > :38:38.children we take money away from them on the basis of how many

:38:39. > :38:43.children may have. You abstained on that issue earlier, but as you said,

:38:44. > :38:46.you changed your mind. Should colleagues of yours be worried about

:38:47. > :38:50.being sacked after voting against the leadership on air strikes? No, I

:38:51. > :38:54.don't think they should be. Obviously I'm not in charge of

:38:55. > :38:57.reshuffles, that's a job to Jeremy, but I just think this is newspaper

:38:58. > :39:01.tittle tattle. What I've seen in the way in which Jeremy has handled this

:39:02. > :39:05.in Shadow Cabinet is that he has been very keen to stress that we've

:39:06. > :39:10.got to be respectful of the different views. I voted against,

:39:11. > :39:13.others voted in favour, I don't think there is any reason, and I

:39:14. > :39:16.think any abuse that anyone has been subject to as a result of decisions

:39:17. > :39:21.taken in good conscience and good faith is disgraceful, and we should

:39:22. > :39:24.not settle for it or allow it in the Labour Party. Owen Smith, thank you.

:39:25. > :39:27.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:28. > :39:29.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:39:30. > :39:34.Coming up here in twenty minutes, we'll be talking to

:39:35. > :39:44.the Conservative MP who used her maiden speech to rebel against her

:39:45. > :39:47.Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

:39:48. > :39:50.A Welsh MP warns that the airstrikes against so-called IS

:39:51. > :39:54.in Syria could radicalise more young Muslims here.The

:39:55. > :39:57.leader of the Welsh Conservatives says military action is right

:39:58. > :40:02.And two Syrian students tell us that they don't think

:40:03. > :40:09.During last week's ten-hour Syria debate in the commons,

:40:10. > :40:12.David Cameron said bombing the so called Islamic State militants

:40:13. > :40:19.The attackers in Paris last month were heard shouting "this is

:40:20. > :40:24.for Syria" - referring to France's involvement in air strikes there.

:40:25. > :40:27.But even if it's true that we're a bigger target for IS because

:40:28. > :40:30.of military action, should it be a reason for inaction?

:40:31. > :40:37.Four days after the vote, and several RAF missions over Syria have

:40:38. > :40:39.already been completed.

:40:40. > :40:44.Triggered by a vote at Westminster on Wednesday night.

:40:45. > :40:47.But in the cold light of day, the differences of opinion persist

:40:48. > :40:52.over whether it will make people here and in Syria safer.

:40:53. > :40:59.I fear the air strikes are going to create more refugees.

:41:00. > :41:01.It is going to benefit Assad in the long-running

:41:02. > :41:05.and I fear it is going to radicalise more young Muslims, not only in this

:41:06. > :41:08.I understand when people say we want peace.

:41:09. > :41:11.Most of us in this country, most of us really do want peace.

:41:12. > :41:14.But I think it is, how do we get that?

:41:15. > :41:17.And in my mind, joining in with other countries, showing such

:41:18. > :41:22.solidarity with France, coming in as part of an international force,

:41:23. > :41:25.joining with about 60 countries now in that

:41:26. > :41:31.countries at the Vienna talks, it is all part of it.

:41:32. > :41:36.This constituency, Cardiff South and Penarth, home to the National

:41:37. > :41:40.Assembly, is one of Wales's most diverse.

:41:41. > :41:43.Earlier in the week, in the House of Commons debate, the

:41:44. > :41:47.local MP Stephen Doughty talked about how some young Muslims here

:41:48. > :41:53.But will targeting the extremists in Syria make that more or less

:41:54. > :42:02.The local MP voted in favour of air strikes.

:42:03. > :42:05.His assembly colleague is torn and isn't sure which way he would

:42:06. > :42:12.The point is we already live in a world that isn't safe.

:42:13. > :42:15.What happened in Paris could just have easily been

:42:16. > :42:18.a city anywhere within Britain, including here in Cardiff.

:42:19. > :42:22.And let's not pretend that there aren't people already radicalised,

:42:23. > :42:28.living in Britain as well, who may contemplate a sort

:42:29. > :42:35.And if people can be attracted to the fascist cult that is Isis, then

:42:36. > :42:39.the risk exists already, and that's what makes this such a difficult

:42:40. > :42:43.choice, because I don't think anyone could hand on their heart say we

:42:44. > :42:46.absolutely can guarantee we are safer for action,

:42:47. > :42:50.or we can guarantee we are safer if we are not taking action, given we

:42:51. > :42:58.For other Cardiff Bay politicians, there was no doubt

:42:59. > :43:03.about the right course of action, and the need for air strikes.

:43:04. > :43:08.We have the defence forces, we have intelligence

:43:09. > :43:11.agencies, we have a government committed to national security and

:43:12. > :43:16.to the security of individuals, and I think that is the way the British

:43:17. > :43:19.people want their government to respond in making sure our country

:43:20. > :43:25.The bombing started within hours, but gauging

:43:26. > :43:29.whether the air strikes will lead to greater peace and security won't be

:43:30. > :43:36.Joining us from our Carmarthen studio is Christopher Salmon -

:43:37. > :43:39.the Dyfed Powys Police and Crime Commissioner - and a former soldier

:43:40. > :43:54.Good morning, thank you for joining us. Just give figure on that point

:43:55. > :44:01.in the report, do you think we are safer now having bigger than these

:44:02. > :44:08.air strikes against ISP? I think we can count ourselves lucky -- Isis.

:44:09. > :44:10.We have a strong civic society. We have this well established

:44:11. > :44:14.Institutes of government and security and a long history of

:44:15. > :44:19.dealing with threats of all sort in this country. There are no easy

:44:20. > :44:24.answers in this particular problem, and there are no bloodless answers.

:44:25. > :44:31.We know we are at threat. It is right we tried to confront that

:44:32. > :44:34.read, so where we are at the moment is in the process of dealing with

:44:35. > :44:38.the problem we see that arrived in Paris in such terrible form not long

:44:39. > :44:44.ago, and we know we are at threat here. Is there this new threat from

:44:45. > :44:50.the so-called lone wolf attackers? We've seen in London yesterday, a

:44:51. > :44:57.man, multiple stabbings in London, and reports of the man saying, this

:44:58. > :45:02.is the Syria. Those kind of attacks are impossible to defend against,

:45:03. > :45:09.aren't they? They are difficult, but this one was handled, it seems by

:45:10. > :45:14.the people around it. Those threats already existed, and I don't predict

:45:15. > :45:18.we see that the decision to extend what was happening in Iraq already

:45:19. > :45:24.in terms of air strikes into Syria necessarily makes them any worse. IS

:45:25. > :45:31.does not respect borders, it doesn't respect organisational boundaries.

:45:32. > :45:35.We need to respond in kind and to act across borders where we need

:45:36. > :45:39.to, and that is why it is the right action to use air power and to

:45:40. > :45:43.confront them. You say it is right to use air power and to confront

:45:44. > :45:50.them. You say it is right to use air powerful Iraq. Do you think air

:45:51. > :45:54.strikes alone is sufficient, or do do they need to be boots on the

:45:55. > :46:00.ground, soldiers being sent into Syria? I think ultimately,

:46:01. > :46:03.personally, I find it hard to see how it will be resolved without

:46:04. > :46:08.boots on the ground. The question is, whose boots are they? There are

:46:09. > :46:13.local forces that are talked about a great deal. But if you are going to

:46:14. > :46:17.arm them, you need to know who they are, and it's not easy. They need to

:46:18. > :46:22.be working towards a common aim stop if it's not local forces come these

:46:23. > :46:25.to be another form, maybe Western forces, that becomes much more

:46:26. > :46:30.politically difficult. That's my personal view, but in the

:46:31. > :46:36.short-term, let's not pretend air strikes effective, but in the long

:46:37. > :46:40.term it is effective. We need to make these people's lives as a ball,

:46:41. > :46:45.keep them on the move, keep them down. If they worrying about

:46:46. > :46:49.building tunnels, they have less time to plan attacks. That's what

:46:50. > :46:53.air strikes can help with. We've been conducting them in Iraq were

:46:54. > :46:58.some time, and they have been successful with local forces in

:46:59. > :47:04.pushing IS back. I would have thought the same logic will apply in

:47:05. > :47:09.Syria, but therefore it is right we extend that reach. As I say,

:47:10. > :47:14.personally, in the long run, it is hard to see how this will be

:47:15. > :47:20.achieved without boots on the ground. You are the police and

:47:21. > :47:28.crimes Commissioner for Powys, have you decided to increase the work

:47:29. > :47:35.going on there to see if a terrorist threat... Has changed how you deal

:47:36. > :47:38.with that port? It is a side of critical national infrastructure and

:47:39. > :47:43.is guarded accordingly, so there are more than the usual level of

:47:44. > :47:47.response officers around. There's a particular plan to police it, it's

:47:48. > :47:51.something I've discussed with the chief constable. He is aware of the

:47:52. > :47:59.threats as well. It is kept under constant review and is policed stop

:48:00. > :48:03.it is policed alongside the Wales counter extreme unit and with the

:48:04. > :48:08.counterterrorist police in London, so it stretches all the way across

:48:09. > :48:14.the UK. It is a concern, will keep it under review. But at the moment,

:48:15. > :48:19.there's nothing to suggest it is of a particular concern. There is no

:48:20. > :48:25.intelligence to suggest any plans of attacks against the board? The UK

:48:26. > :48:30.threat level is that severe, which means if Fred is likely, and that

:48:31. > :48:42.applies across the UK. We are replying to those in our patch -- a

:48:43. > :48:47.threat is likely. More broadly, Powys is a rural force area. You

:48:48. > :48:55.think you are more sheltered from terrorist threats, or is it equally

:48:56. > :49:01.valid target for Isis militant? We are more sheltered, the population

:49:02. > :49:07.demographic we have is relatively homogenous. It is a real area. To be

:49:08. > :49:14.fair, in Wales as a whole, we can be confident the risks are lower than

:49:15. > :49:21.they might be elsewhere in London and the Midlands. All that doesn't

:49:22. > :49:27.mean we mustn't be vigilant. We are on very high alert, and that does

:49:28. > :49:37.apply in Powys and Wales and across the UK. Our forces would be called

:49:38. > :49:41.upon, so we need to be prepared for that and vigilant. We need to be

:49:42. > :49:46.vigilant within our borders, at our borders and beyond. We will play our

:49:47. > :49:49.part in that, but we must keep everything in context and

:49:50. > :50:02.perspective, and I think we can be whether to be reassured that we have

:50:03. > :50:06.strong team -- strong communities. Thank you for your time.

:50:07. > :50:08.Some who support air strikes in Syria say there's

:50:09. > :50:13.They say there's a duty to help protect Syrian people from the yoke

:50:14. > :50:16.of Islamic State in the midst of almost five years of civil war.

:50:17. > :50:21.Bethan Lewis has been talking to two young Syrians - now studying

:50:22. > :50:23.For 18-year-old Nanna and 17-year-old Nazim, life on the

:50:24. > :50:25.Glamorgan coast is very different to their experiences

:50:26. > :50:30.They are students at Atlantic College, an international sixth form

:50:31. > :50:36.In the wake of the Westminster vote, they told me what they make

:50:37. > :50:40.of air strikes and talked about their lives back home.

:50:41. > :50:47.My life in Damascus was, before the war, was relatively pretty good.

:50:48. > :50:50.The problem was that my dad used to own pharmacies and they used to be

:50:51. > :50:56.In 2012 they were all destroyed, and the house was destroyed,

:50:57. > :51:03.I remember sometimes we would spend three nights without sleep because

:51:04. > :51:06.the bombing would be mostly at night and then you can't sleep, and during

:51:07. > :51:10.Once we had a bomb just outside the class.

:51:11. > :51:14.I used to live in the city of Homs, which is in central Syria.

:51:15. > :51:27.In 2012 the situation in Homs got really bad and we had to move

:51:28. > :51:33.During that, our old house was collapsed,

:51:34. > :51:35.so there was no other way of returning to

:51:36. > :51:42.My father and my older brother are in Germany.

:51:43. > :51:44.They've been refugees there for more than a year now.

:51:45. > :51:48.My mother and my younger brother are still in Syria, they now live

:51:49. > :51:53.Nanna and Nazim are both hoping to visit their families in Syria

:51:54. > :51:56.soon, and have strong views about the MPs'

:51:57. > :52:03.I'm disappointed in the decision because more

:52:04. > :52:12.The past two months proved that when Russia first,

:52:13. > :52:17.and France after it, decided to bomb the Islamic State and it didn't

:52:18. > :52:22.really pay off because they are, like, lots of civilians died for no

:52:23. > :52:28.I felt that when they took that decision, they were not thinking

:52:29. > :52:35.So I thought about it, if one of the MPs or even the

:52:36. > :52:39.Prime Minister's daughter was stuck in Syria,

:52:40. > :52:45.Joining us from our Cambridge studio is Sir Emyr Jones Parry - the former

:52:46. > :53:03.Good morning. What do you make of the wisdom then of launching these

:53:04. > :53:07.air strikes against IS and Syria? It was a difficult decision and a

:53:08. > :53:11.fascinating debate in the House of Commons, which explore the

:53:12. > :53:15.arguments. There's a real risk of not doing anything, as well as the

:53:16. > :53:20.risk of doing something. If you are under attack and there is a serious

:53:21. > :53:25.threat, it is a question of judgment, what do you do? On

:53:26. > :53:29.balance, the House of Commons believe the best thing was to act. I

:53:30. > :53:36.think the important thing is, this is not just attacking from the air,

:53:37. > :53:39.it is part of a coordinated plan. That'll have to involve a peace

:53:40. > :53:43.process. That's going to be difficult but I look to the Russians

:53:44. > :53:47.and Americans you actually come together and ready press for that.

:53:48. > :53:52.It means looking after the refugees and helping the countries in the

:53:53. > :54:00.region. And crucially it means getting the communities in which I

:54:01. > :54:05.still operating two separate them from these evil barbarians, I'd call

:54:06. > :54:11.them that, and in the end they will have to be troops on the ground.

:54:12. > :54:15.That, I think, means local countries will have 2 come up and play their

:54:16. > :54:20.part, because in the end what Iraq and Syria both need is better

:54:21. > :54:25.governance, they need governments which are responsive, not a

:54:26. > :54:29.government in Iraq which contributed to this problem, but governments

:54:30. > :54:34.which have control of the territory and deliver security, economic

:54:35. > :54:38.prospect, and do it without favour in ways that the people living in

:54:39. > :54:43.those countries can respect and want to stay there. That's the long-term

:54:44. > :54:46.challenge. We'll come back to that in a moment, but you are a man

:54:47. > :54:51.skilled in the arts of diplomacy and those discussions will be ongoing.

:54:52. > :54:55.Does the fact the UK is involved with air strikes in Syria, does that

:54:56. > :54:59.help or hinder their position when it comes to those UN or Nato

:55:00. > :55:05.discussions behind the scenes? There's always the assumption that

:55:06. > :55:10.the permanent five members of the Security Council have a particular

:55:11. > :55:13.role. That is right. It doesn't follow the role requires you to be

:55:14. > :55:19.bombing in order to be able to exercise influence. I'm sure the

:55:20. > :55:26.British diplomats and ministers have been trying to play their part. The

:55:27. > :55:30.fundamental factors that Russia and the US have to come to some

:55:31. > :55:35.accommodation, that a precondition, and then there need to be talks.

:55:36. > :55:38.They will be difficult. We've had five years of civil war. How will

:55:39. > :55:42.you bring the parties together, and which party is to bring together? In

:55:43. > :55:53.against the Free Syrian Army, they are a mix of different groups. Who

:55:54. > :55:59.is representing whom? Who is entitled to be at the table? And who

:56:00. > :56:04.can then deliver the outcome of what ever might be agreed? They are

:56:05. > :56:10.fundamental questions, and then when you add into the mix the countries

:56:11. > :56:15.in the region, around, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, what are they doing to

:56:16. > :56:21.facilitate and help the progress of ending negotiation? It is immensely

:56:22. > :56:26.complicated, difficult, that's why they haven't made much progress so

:56:27. > :56:31.far. But what they've got to do is get on with it and meanwhile these

:56:32. > :56:39.attacks will have to continue in order to try and restrain Isis, to

:56:40. > :56:43.stop any extension of territory that they control, and to deny them

:56:44. > :56:47.through the attacks on the oil wells, to deny them funding, which

:56:48. > :56:54.otherwise would be used for more nefarious purposes. Given, as you

:56:55. > :56:59.are blind in the region, and the difficulties of organising trips on

:57:00. > :57:05.the ground from the neighbouring countries, do you think it is almost

:57:06. > :57:09.inevitable there will be, if not UK, Western military boots on the ground

:57:10. > :57:14.and Syria? I don't think it is inevitable at all. I see no prospect

:57:15. > :57:18.of British troops being deployed in Syria as part of any effort to try

:57:19. > :57:23.and follow up what has been achieved by the attacks. Countries in the

:57:24. > :57:34.region will have to play a bigger part. What I would look for, if

:57:35. > :57:38.there was going to be an International of it, that the United

:57:39. > :57:43.Nations might deploy peacekeepers, but that is a long way down the

:57:44. > :57:47.road. One of the issues you highlighted is the need for Russia

:57:48. > :57:53.and the US to come together in these peace talks. How difficult will that

:57:54. > :58:00.be? Well, they met, didn't play, recently at a June 20 heads of

:58:01. > :58:02.government meeting? And the body language between the president of

:58:03. > :58:08.the United States and Russia didn't look to be the warmest, did it? The

:58:09. > :58:13.fact is, they have a responsibility to try and work together, and I hope

:58:14. > :58:19.that with suitable lubrication of the relationship that they can get

:58:20. > :58:24.point where the two Administration 's, putting aside their specific

:58:25. > :58:30.national interests, understand that globally the threat to all of us

:58:31. > :58:34.from what is happening, the need to look after the people in the region,

:58:35. > :58:40.to try and give them a decent government, for the first time in

:58:41. > :58:46.generations almost, and to restore peace, security and some economic

:58:47. > :58:48.prospect, that's the challenge. And it is meant, but it got to done.

:58:49. > :58:53.Thank you very much for your time. On Tuesday the Welsh Government

:58:54. > :58:56.publishes its draft budget for We heard on last week's programme

:58:57. > :59:00.that tough decisions will have to be taken because

:59:01. > :59:02.of cuts to how much money goes from the Treasury into the coffers

:59:03. > :59:06.of ministers in Cardiff Bay. In last year's budget, more money

:59:07. > :59:09.went into health, and local government

:59:10. > :59:12.and educational were the big losers. There's no way of explaining it

:59:13. > :59:17.in any other way. We have had a cut of 10%

:59:18. > :59:20.in our budget, and there have been some areas that have seen reductions

:59:21. > :59:22.in the funding. I would say that to

:59:23. > :59:24.you straightaway. We know that there's been

:59:25. > :59:26.difficulties, we've got a budget statement next

:59:27. > :59:30.week, and we're looking at ways to make sure the FE is in a less

:59:31. > :59:33.difficult position as we go forward. But you're quite right, it's been

:59:34. > :59:36.very hard on the FE sector. We haven't been able to keep up

:59:37. > :59:41.spending on everything, given the Jeff Jones is a former Labour

:59:42. > :59:57.council leader and a local He joins me now, thank you for

:59:58. > :00:00.coming in. Last week we had Jane Hutt, the finance minister for the

:00:01. > :00:07.Welsh government, saying two decisions have to be made. That

:00:08. > :00:11.almost underplaying it, really. It is a difficult spending review. The

:00:12. > :00:16.local government it is difficult because, to be fair to the Welsh

:00:17. > :00:20.assembly, for the first term of the UK coalition in 2010, the first four

:00:21. > :00:24.years they protect the local government. It is any larger they

:00:25. > :00:28.switched me to the health service. If you look at the spending review,

:00:29. > :00:34.English local government is expected to cut 24% in that period. In my

:00:35. > :00:37.opinion, Welsh government is three years behind English local

:00:38. > :00:42.government in terms of cuts. There's a point that they are talking about

:00:43. > :00:47.the funding for councils in England will be the council tax and business

:00:48. > :00:53.rate, and nothing century. Will we reach that point in Wales? People

:00:54. > :00:55.didn't pick this up because when the spending review was announced a look

:00:56. > :01:00.that tax credits and the performance of the shadow Labour Chancellor,

:01:01. > :01:03.instead of looking at what is a fundamental change. The next four

:01:04. > :01:08.years English lord government will lose much of its central grants, and

:01:09. > :01:13.the return and be expected to use business rates to replace it. I

:01:14. > :01:17.think that is a move by the UK government to actually do Volvo

:01:18. > :01:22.authority down to regional and local government, but at the same time you

:01:23. > :01:29.get accountability. Devolving income tax to Wales is all part of the

:01:30. > :01:32.system to reduce the size of the UK state. We know health will be

:01:33. > :01:37.getting more money, they announced at last check, but that means areas

:01:38. > :01:42.like education will lose out. I been hearing councils are telling schools

:01:43. > :01:48.they are expecting 16% cuts in the next three years. You hearing that?

:01:49. > :01:54.My own compounds of us been told some of its balance will be taken,

:01:55. > :01:57.some ?32,000, because they are strapped for cash. Local govern

:01:58. > :02:01.plays an important part of a help with social care. You have to be

:02:02. > :02:05.careful that if you could local governor and social care, it has an

:02:06. > :02:08.ongoing effect on the National Health Service, because you can't

:02:09. > :02:13.get all people out of hospital. It adds to pressure. You've got to look

:02:14. > :02:19.at local govern and say it isn't on its own, it does help health

:02:20. > :02:23.service. When you are thinking about the decisions, how challenging word

:02:24. > :02:29.beaver councils over the next year? Are you assuming more cuts? It is

:02:30. > :02:32.the period of the period up to 2020. It is the most difficult period

:02:33. > :02:35.local Gutman has ever faced. There we are, that's all we have time

:02:36. > :02:39.for. Thank you for watching. It is Coming up, all the rest

:02:40. > :02:47.of the national political news. Now, every new MP thinks hard

:02:48. > :02:49.about their first speech It's a chance to praise

:02:50. > :02:56.the constituency and raise some issues that are close

:02:57. > :02:59.to their heart, but there's a convention that on the whole

:03:00. > :03:01.they're pretty uncontroversial. Well, occasionally that

:03:02. > :03:04.convention is ignored. That's what the

:03:05. > :03:07.Conservative MP Heidi Allen chose to do when she devoted her maiden

:03:08. > :03:10.speech in October to a political hot potato, her own government's plans

:03:11. > :03:20.to cut tax credits. The Prime Minister has asked us that

:03:21. > :03:24.everything we do must pass the family test. Cutting tax credits

:03:25. > :03:30.before wages rise does not achieve that. Showing children that their

:03:31. > :03:35.parents would be better off not working at all does not achieve

:03:36. > :03:38.that. Sending a message to the poorest and most honourable in our

:03:39. > :03:46.society that we do not care does not achieve that either. Madam Deputy

:03:47. > :03:51.Speaker, I believe the pace of these reforms is too hard, too fast. As

:03:52. > :03:58.these proposals stand, too many people will be adversely affected.

:03:59. > :04:03.Something must give. For those of us proud enough to call ourselves

:04:04. > :04:05.compassionate conservatives, it must not be the backs of the working

:04:06. > :04:08.family we purport to serve. So that was Heidi Allen speaking out

:04:09. > :04:11.against tax credit cuts in October, cuts that were later dropped

:04:12. > :04:14.by the chancellor under pressure from her and other Conservative MPs

:04:15. > :04:18.and following a defeat in the House Well, Heidi Allen joins me now

:04:19. > :04:29.for her first national TV interview Welcome to the programme. How did it

:04:30. > :04:33.feel to go from being a little-known backbencher to a very rebellious one

:04:34. > :04:38.in the matter of one speech? The word rebellious does make me smile.

:04:39. > :04:43.You stand up in the House of Commons once and stand something and

:04:44. > :04:48.suddenly you are a rebel. I did not expected to have the impact it did.

:04:49. > :04:55.You didn't? Not at all. Was naivete? Rob Lee. It wasn't until my husband

:04:56. > :05:00.picked me up and asked whether I had seen the evening news I realised the

:05:01. > :05:04.momentum it was gathering. Because you were the headline. Pretty much.

:05:05. > :05:10.How did your fellow MPs react? Absolutely brilliant, from the old

:05:11. > :05:14.wise sages to the new members of Parliament, quietly in the corridors

:05:15. > :05:18.and writing me well done messages, saying that I had said things they

:05:19. > :05:23.wanted to but did not dare. And did George Osborne speak to you

:05:24. > :05:25.afterwards? No, but to be fed the big Secretary of State 's are not

:05:26. > :05:31.typically hanging around in the Commons anyway. He hasn't told you

:05:32. > :05:37.of? Knows. You voted for tax credit cuts, so what changed? My not

:05:38. > :05:40.understanding the detail. And I did not disagree that welfare needed

:05:41. > :05:45.reform and I still believe that, but the detail about how and the timing

:05:46. > :05:48.was not clear. And I'm on the work and pensions select committee also

:05:49. > :05:52.and we were doing a lot of work into the reset and it just became clear

:05:53. > :05:56.that the detail did not stack up. Do you think most MPs didn't understand

:05:57. > :06:03.the changes and then did or stuck to their curtains? I think everybody

:06:04. > :06:09.started to understand the changes, but it was whether they were content

:06:10. > :06:13.to stay with that or brave enough. Where would you make the ?12 billion

:06:14. > :06:17.of savings? We still can make the man that is the point, but it is the

:06:18. > :06:22.pace of change, how hard and fast. That was the part I could not

:06:23. > :06:25.accept. We are fortunate now that George Osborne has managed to find

:06:26. > :06:31.better tax receipts and we can take the cuts altogether. He hopes, that

:06:32. > :06:33.is just the forecast. You know the Institute for Fiscal Studies has

:06:34. > :06:38.said that actually there will still be many losers, it will be further

:06:39. > :06:40.down the line, in fact it could be a more difficult time for the

:06:41. > :06:44.Conservatives in the run-up to the election. Are you now against

:06:45. > :06:49.universal credit which will be, in fact, where those losers will have

:06:50. > :06:52.their money cut from? Not at all because universal credit, we are a

:06:53. > :06:57.way off from delivering it across the country, but the olden days of

:06:58. > :07:01.people earning an extra hour wage and benefit is being taken, that is

:07:02. > :07:05.smoothed out with universal credit. Crucially you give people longer to

:07:06. > :07:08.prepare. That was the bit I could not swallow, sorry, next April,

:07:09. > :07:13.gone. But they will still lose the money. There will be a transition

:07:14. > :07:19.period for some people, and there will be a chance for higher wages

:07:20. > :07:22.for some people to have increased, but the cold hard reality, according

:07:23. > :07:26.to the ISS, is that people could still lose over ?1000. That will

:07:27. > :07:30.still be hitting those people you said could not be hit this time

:07:31. > :07:34.round. But they will have longer to adjust to that. As you mention, the

:07:35. > :07:38.minimum wage and tax threshold will increase and it gives people time to

:07:39. > :07:42.prepare, to take on bed free childcare and so on. Doing it

:07:43. > :07:47.overnight would give people the chance to change their lives. It is

:07:48. > :07:50.having is somebody with you discussing what things you can do,

:07:51. > :07:55.can you look for extra work, what is the childcare situation, and being

:07:56. > :07:57.mental through that change. You said your colleagues reacted brilliantly

:07:58. > :08:01.and you seem to have made friends with the Shadow Work and Pensions

:08:02. > :08:04.Secretary who mentioned you in the interview, is it a worry you are

:08:05. > :08:09.being lauded by the other side? Not at all, I am not interested in being

:08:10. > :08:14.lauded by anybody, I just want good policy and the right decisions. I'd

:08:15. > :08:17.am not interested in the party. I heard one of your articles earlier

:08:18. > :08:22.in the programme about this new politics, that's what I want to see.

:08:23. > :08:26.A gentler kind of politics? Not even gentler, but just consensus, if you

:08:27. > :08:30.have a good idea, let's go with it. I have no truck with, Labour are

:08:31. > :08:33.terrible, conservatives are terrible. We are in that building to

:08:34. > :08:38.make things better, let's just shot up and do it. It sounds great if it

:08:39. > :08:42.can actually be done after years and generations of much more convert of

:08:43. > :08:47.politics, yet to be seen, do you have ambitions to go up the ladder?

:08:48. > :08:51.And is what you have done so far make it more difficult. I never did

:08:52. > :08:55.and you are right, it would make it more difficult, but that is a great

:08:56. > :08:58.sense of freedom. If I did not come into this to clamber up that greasy

:08:59. > :09:02.pole than it does not matter because I am free and that is a fantastic

:09:03. > :09:07.feeling, so long as my party don't deselect me. You have neatly moved

:09:08. > :09:08.on to our next subject, so thank you very much.

:09:09. > :09:10.So let's talk about the Labour Party.

:09:11. > :09:12.The former frontbencher Tristram Hunt has been calling for unity this

:09:13. > :09:15.morning, but that's something that seems to be in short supply to judge

:09:16. > :09:22.Today's Observer is one of several to report that

:09:23. > :09:25.the shadow cabinet is bracing itself for a 'revenge

:09:26. > :09:28.reshuffle' following the emphatic win at the Oldham by-election.

:09:29. > :09:31.It says the victory will embolden Jeremy Corbyn and his allies to

:09:32. > :09:34.get rid of those shadow ministers who didn't back him in the Commons

:09:35. > :09:46.reports on a possible reshuffle, and also says that Mr Corbyn's

:09:47. > :09:49.allies have accused MPs of spreading lies about his health in an attempt

:09:50. > :10:01.A lot of talk of civil war in the Labour Party, party within a party,

:10:02. > :10:06.groups coming from within the Labour Party to attack one side or the

:10:07. > :10:10.other, is that how you see it? Yes. This is as bad if not worse than

:10:11. > :10:13.when the SDP split. You had the extraordinary scenario where the

:10:14. > :10:15.leader of the Labour Party passionately believes that we should

:10:16. > :10:19.not be taking part in these air strikes and then you have the Shadow

:10:20. > :10:23.Foreign Secretary making the speech of a lifetime to say that absolutely

:10:24. > :10:27.we should do that. And Jeremy Corbyn is saying that he is committed to a

:10:28. > :10:31.new sort of inclusive style of politics, but some of the people who

:10:32. > :10:34.support him in the momentum group and the stop the War coalition are

:10:35. > :10:39.making some pretty barbed and unpleasant attacks on those people.

:10:40. > :10:51.So yes, it's pretty difficult in the Labour Party at the moment. And is

:10:52. > :10:55.it that anti-Corbyn MPs can not accept that he has won with a big

:10:56. > :10:59.mandate? Are they crying foul at every turn because they cannot get

:11:00. > :11:03.over it or is there an orchestrated campaign of intimidation that is, at

:11:04. > :11:07.the very least, being ignored by the Centre, if not discouraged? It is

:11:08. > :11:12.just that their views are fundamentally different. We should

:11:13. > :11:16.not understate the utter despair of those MPs who have been around for a

:11:17. > :11:20.long time, are on a different wing of the party to Jeremy Corbyn, you

:11:21. > :11:24.talk to them at the moment it's like having a counselling session with

:11:25. > :11:28.them. They simply do not see how this is going to play out, they

:11:29. > :11:32.cannot see a mechanism for changing things, they are completely at odds

:11:33. > :11:37.with this surge of new members who have joined the Labour Party, and

:11:38. > :11:41.then you've got this spectre of this organisation called Momentum which

:11:42. > :11:46.lets not forget is not just Labour Party members. It is an organisation

:11:47. > :11:55.for people of any political persuasion. And there is a real fear

:11:56. > :11:59.that Momentum will try to grip the centre of the party. We hear

:12:00. > :12:03.endlessly about campaigns to deselect a number of MPs which is

:12:04. > :12:08.denied by organisations like Momentum, which is not necessarily a

:12:09. > :12:11.Labour Party organisation. What is it we are talking about here?

:12:12. > :12:15.Deselection only really happens if an MP has committed a crime or is

:12:16. > :12:27.involved in expenses, not for a differing opinion. This is where the

:12:28. > :12:31.Corbyn-ites and the moderates have a similar opinion. The moderates want

:12:32. > :12:35.to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn but it is technically and constitutionally

:12:36. > :12:40.impossible. Deselection is incredibly rare. It is usually some

:12:41. > :12:46.kind of malfeasance on the part of the MP that promotes deselection. If

:12:47. > :12:51.boundary review goes through before 2020, that provides an almost

:12:52. > :12:58.accidental opportunity for a lot of people like Momentum to reselect

:12:59. > :13:03.rather than deselect existing MPs in various constituencies, and at the

:13:04. > :13:07.moment, ditched that MP and get some more aligned with their thinking.

:13:08. > :13:11.And they could then extend their influence. We've got ten seconds,

:13:12. > :13:15.Hilary Benn, what happened to him this week? He went from a pretty

:13:16. > :13:20.pedestrian politician to the Premiership, he is now a very big

:13:21. > :13:25.beast. And possible leader if it were ever to come. Such a long way

:13:26. > :13:29.off. That's it for today, thank you for being our guests today. I'll be

:13:30. > :13:34.back with daily politics tomorrow on BBC Two at noon, they never let me

:13:35. > :13:36.go. Andrew will be back next week. Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the

:13:37. > :13:38.Sunday politics.