:00:37. > :00:41.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:48.After suggestions that David Cameron was diluting his EU negotiation
:00:49. > :00:50.demands, Downing Street insists he's still pushing for curbs
:00:51. > :00:55.But is there any evidence that the rest of Europe is listening?
:00:56. > :00:57.Jeremy Corbyn says Stop The War is "one of the most important
:00:58. > :00:59.democratic campaigns of modern times".
:01:00. > :01:08.And why all the fuss that he went to its Christmas fund-raiser?
:01:09. > :01:09.Yvette Cooper - one-time Labour leadership contender -
:01:10. > :01:17.says Britain should be doing more for refugees and migrants
:01:18. > :01:22.Later in the programme, a senior Labour AM once more done to tackle
:01:23. > :01:32.poverty. And with me for this final
:01:33. > :01:36.Sunday Politics of 2015, Tom Newton Dunn of The Sun,
:01:37. > :01:39.Helen Lewis of the New Statesman and Sam Coates of The Times -
:01:40. > :01:42.the Dasher, Dancer and Prancer They'll be tweeting
:01:43. > :01:47.throughout the programme. Downing Street insists that
:01:48. > :01:50.David Cameron will still push for curbs on in-work benefits
:01:51. > :01:53.for EU migrants in the UK, despite earlier briefings
:01:54. > :01:57.to the contrary. The Prime Minister will head
:01:58. > :02:00.to a crucial summit later this week to make his case for a reformed
:02:01. > :02:04.British relationship with the EU. However, several newspapers,
:02:05. > :02:06.citing official guidance, report that Mr Cameron has failed
:02:07. > :02:10.to convince other European leaders and is already preparing a fallback
:02:11. > :02:16.to replace his original demand for a four-year wait
:02:17. > :02:21.for in-work benefits. The Sunday Times headline says
:02:22. > :02:23."Prime Minister 'caves in' The Sunday Telegraph describes it
:02:24. > :02:28.as "Cameron's climbdown And the Independent on Sunday goes
:02:29. > :02:35.for the same metaphor, describing it as
:02:36. > :02:42."Cameron's big EU climbdown". Let's speak now to
:02:43. > :02:44.Conservative MP Peter Lilley. He was a Cabinet minister
:02:45. > :02:47.in the Conservative governments of both Margaret Thatcher
:02:48. > :02:57.and John Major. Welcome to the programme. The Prime
:02:58. > :03:01.Minister is thought by many of your colleagues not to be asking for a
:03:02. > :03:09.lot, yet he might not even get what he's asking for. Could he sell a
:03:10. > :03:14.watered-down deal to his party? It is more a question of whether he can
:03:15. > :03:22.sell whatever comes out of it to the country. There are lots of Labour
:03:23. > :03:27.MPs who want to see democratic powers returned to this country from
:03:28. > :03:31.the European institutions. That's the key issue as far as I'm
:03:32. > :03:36.concerned. He will clearly get some things because a lot of this has
:03:37. > :03:40.been pre-negotiated, so he will get something to say about removing the
:03:41. > :03:45.phrase ever closer union, something to do with benefits, even if
:03:46. > :03:50.actually it is something we could do anyway ourselves, like apply a
:03:51. > :03:55.four-year wait to British citizens as well as foreigners. There will be
:03:56. > :03:59.something, the question is will it be substantial? Will it include a
:04:00. > :04:09.return of powers to this country to govern itself? What major powers is
:04:10. > :04:15.he asking to be repatriated? Publicly, there doesn't seem to be
:04:16. > :04:26.anything on the list, unless some change in relation to free movement
:04:27. > :04:30.of Labour is somewhere up his sleeve. I do occasionally hear
:04:31. > :04:35.rumours that he will come back with some genuine return of powers, and
:04:36. > :04:43.if he does I will be dancing on the rooftops. We have no evidence that's
:04:44. > :04:47.even part of the negotiation. That is certainly disappointing, it is
:04:48. > :04:53.rather a strange strategy not to ask for the principal thing we want and
:04:54. > :04:59.yet still hope to get it. Because we have, over a series of treaties
:05:00. > :05:03.which David Cameron and I voted against, conceded a whole lot of
:05:04. > :05:12.powers to Europe beyond what is necessary. The trading area requires
:05:13. > :05:17.some common lawmaking, but beyond that we concede a lot of powers. We
:05:18. > :05:23.would like to start the process of getting those powers back. If we
:05:24. > :05:28.cannot, we will be on a slippery slope to creating a single state.
:05:29. > :05:34.The reason we are in the position we are, having to renegotiate, is that
:05:35. > :05:39.the countries of the eurozone are on the road to creating a single state.
:05:40. > :05:45.There's never been a currency without a single state to run it.
:05:46. > :05:51.They are forced, because they have created this currency, without a
:05:52. > :05:56.government to make it work. The question is can we be outside that
:05:57. > :06:02.process, can removing the opposite direction and get powers back, or
:06:03. > :06:05.will we be sucked on the slipstream? If we cannot overcome the two
:06:06. > :06:10.doctrines of Europe that everybody is heading in the same direction,
:06:11. > :06:14.albeit at different speeds, and powers can only ever go to the
:06:15. > :06:19.central institutions and never come back to the States, if we cannot
:06:20. > :06:24.break those two doctrines as far as Britain is concerned, he will not
:06:25. > :06:29.really have achieved anything. I understand all of that. A quick
:06:30. > :06:35.final question, if he comes back with even less than he's asking for,
:06:36. > :06:44.would you vote to leave? If he doesn't come back with some increase
:06:45. > :06:49.in power to ourselves, I feel for the first time in my life I would be
:06:50. > :06:54.voting to leave. I voted to stay in 1975 but I would be voting to leave
:06:55. > :06:59.in those circumstances. Tom, it is turning into a real mess
:07:00. > :07:06.for the Government, is it not? A huge mess. There was an exposer
:07:07. > :07:15.yesterday, of the 11pm call every night, coordinated with the Downing
:07:16. > :07:20.Street switchboard which the ministers have got to tune into. I
:07:21. > :07:24.can only imagine the horror that went on last night during the call,
:07:25. > :07:28.which still happens, over the headlines this morning. I think
:07:29. > :07:33.what's happened here is the four-year ban on migrants' benefit
:07:34. > :07:39.is dead. You think he's just not going to get it? It died I would say
:07:40. > :07:44.at least a month ago in the Chatham House speech. He said so in his
:07:45. > :07:48.speech saying, here is what I want, but by the way I will also accept
:07:49. > :07:53.what you choose to offer me. The papers reported the next day that it
:07:54. > :07:58.was dead in the water, so we are talking about the choreographing,
:07:59. > :08:02.how it happens and whether the Prime Minister himself withdraws it. Or
:08:03. > :08:08.somebody else might put something else on the table, doing the PM a
:08:09. > :08:13.favour, to bail him out and say if you don't want this how about that.
:08:14. > :08:18.Peter Lilley And, when I said can you sell this to your backbenchers
:08:19. > :08:22.comic said it is a problem for the other parties too but it is
:08:23. > :08:25.overwhelmingly a problem for the Conservatives and if he cannot
:08:26. > :08:30.achieve what is being asked for, I would suggest half the Parliamentary
:08:31. > :08:41.party in my not go with him on this. It is not the climb-down I would
:08:42. > :08:45.query, but the "big". He needed one totemic issue that looked like he
:08:46. > :08:49.was doing something about immigration. He couldn't look at the
:08:50. > :08:58.free movement of people or any kind of free movement cap. He couldn't
:08:59. > :09:02.tell nostrils any major power he is asking to be repatriated. It will be
:09:03. > :09:08.hard to make it look like he has come back with something so that
:09:09. > :09:16.people can say OK, that has changed my mind. If he gets one in February,
:09:17. > :09:20.can he have the referendum in June? I understand the Electoral
:09:21. > :09:24.Commission doesn't like the idea of a referendum that would overlap with
:09:25. > :09:28.the elections in May, and the risk in September is that we will have
:09:29. > :09:32.another summer migrant crisis and that would be a terrible atmosphere
:09:33. > :09:38.for those who want to stay in the European Union. There are a lot of
:09:39. > :09:41.hurdles, first you have got to get a deal in February that looks like a
:09:42. > :09:46.success. The reason they have done what they've done overnight is
:09:47. > :09:49.because it has been dragged down into a legal quagmire and David
:09:50. > :09:52.Cameron has got to have a conversation with his counterparts
:09:53. > :09:57.to set that entire renegotiation back on the right track. I know that
:09:58. > :10:03.some people in Brussels as saying he cannot get a deal by February, we
:10:04. > :10:14.will never get a deal, and if it slips into 2017 you won't
:10:15. > :10:18.get a deal then either. In June there is this tiny window because --
:10:19. > :10:22.where you could practically hold a vote. But then as you say you've got
:10:23. > :10:27.the migrant crisis, which pops up over the summer. I'm told that
:10:28. > :10:31.dealing with the flow of migration from Turkey will make an enormous
:10:32. > :10:35.difference to the optics of how Europe is seen to be able to deal
:10:36. > :10:40.with the migration crisis. Even though that doesn't have a huge
:10:41. > :10:44.impact on UK migration from the rest of Europe, David Cameron's
:10:45. > :10:48.renegotiation depends on something truly out of his control. So you're
:10:49. > :10:50.telling me it depends on the Turks now.
:10:51. > :10:53.On Friday night Jeremy Corbyn met up with some old friends
:10:54. > :10:56.Nothing unusual in that, you might think, but this
:10:57. > :10:58.was a fundraising do for Stop The War Coalition,
:10:59. > :11:01.the anti-war protest group that Mr Corbyn chaired until his election
:11:02. > :11:05.And, in case you hadn't noticed, it caused a bit of a stir.
:11:06. > :11:12.It was the biggest mass demonstration in British history.
:11:13. > :11:15.The group that organised it, the Stop The War Coalition,
:11:16. > :11:20.had been founded a year or so before following the 9/11 attacks
:11:21. > :11:24.and George Bush's declaration of war on terror.
:11:25. > :11:27.Around a million people marched as Tony Blair prepared to send
:11:28. > :11:32.Among the speakers, a backbench Labour MP.
:11:33. > :11:37.Thousands more deaths in Iraq will not make things right,
:11:38. > :11:41.it will set off a spiral of conflict, of hate,
:11:42. > :11:48.One of the reasons for its success, I've always thought,
:11:49. > :11:53.is that everyone was united around one single issue.
:11:54. > :11:56.We never got bogged down in our political analyses
:11:57. > :12:00.of what we thought about Saddam Hussein or what we thought
:12:01. > :12:03.about this dictator or that, or how we thought the political
:12:04. > :12:09.We weren't there to offer solutions to other people's problems and tell
:12:10. > :12:14.them how we thought it should be, we were there to stop our government
:12:15. > :12:21.taking what we considered to be a very bad and negative step.
:12:22. > :12:31.But despite the broad support, the inner leadership has largely
:12:32. > :12:35.Stop The War's founding member and convener Lindsey German
:12:36. > :12:38.was a member of the Socialist Workers Party for over 30 years,
:12:39. > :12:42.Her partner, John Rees, who's also co-founder
:12:43. > :12:45.of Stop The War and was a leading figure in the SWP, he also
:12:46. > :12:48.He sits on the editorial board of Counterfire, a political
:12:49. > :12:50.organisation created after that SWP split.
:12:51. > :12:52.He also helped start up The People's Assembly Against Austerity,
:12:53. > :12:56.Which has been organising protests since 2013.
:12:57. > :12:58.He's often sparked controversy, reportedly writing in 2006,
:12:59. > :13:02.for example, that socialists should unconditionally stand
:13:03. > :13:05.with the oppressed against the oppressor,
:13:06. > :13:08.even if the people who run the oppressed country
:13:09. > :13:12.are undemocratic and persecute minorities, like Saddam Hussein.
:13:13. > :13:14.Andrew Murray was the Stop The War coalition chairman from
:13:15. > :13:20.He's a member of the Communist Party and chief of staff of
:13:21. > :13:25.In 2014 he spoke at the launch event of a campaign called
:13:26. > :13:28.Solidarity With The Antifascist Resistance In Ukraine,
:13:29. > :13:31.which supports anti-government rebels there.
:13:32. > :13:34.He took back the chairmanship again in September this year,
:13:35. > :13:36.taking over from Jeremy Corbyn, who'd held the post from 2011
:13:37. > :13:53.As well as its elected officers, Stop The War has patrons
:13:54. > :13:56.including Labour MP Diane Abbott, George Galloway, the writer
:13:57. > :13:58.Tariq Ali, and Kamal Majid, a founding member of
:13:59. > :14:01.the Stalin Society, formed in 1991 to defend Stalin and his work.
:14:02. > :14:03.The 2003 protest against the Iraq war, which took place here
:14:04. > :14:06.in Hyde Park, was the high point of Stop The War.
:14:07. > :14:10.The human rights activist Peter Tatchell never played
:14:11. > :14:13.an official role at Stop The War, though he has participated
:14:14. > :14:17.But this week he took a very public step back and claimed
:14:18. > :14:23.the organisation has lost its moral compass.
:14:24. > :14:26.The shortcomings in Stop The War are driven by basically about half
:14:27. > :14:30.a dozen people at the top, and those views increasingly are not
:14:31. > :14:32.shared by many of their long-time grass-roots supporters like me
:14:33. > :14:38.People are turned off by the sectarianism,
:14:39. > :14:41.by the selective opposition to war, and by the failure to speak out
:14:42. > :14:46.against human rights abuses by regimes that happen to be
:14:47. > :14:51.on the receiving end of US and British military intervention.
:14:52. > :14:55.Critics like Tatchell have accused Stop The War of trying to silence
:14:56. > :14:59.those whose views don't fit their own.
:15:00. > :15:02.Nothing will be achieved by trying to shout down speakers!
:15:03. > :15:05.This video shows a Stop The War official clashing with a protester
:15:06. > :15:08.during a rally about western policy in Iran in 2012,
:15:09. > :15:22.This meeting last month caused controversy when Syrians
:15:23. > :15:27.in the audience said they weren't allowed to speak.
:15:28. > :15:30.There is one reason there is no Syrian from this room
:15:31. > :15:32.on the platform and that's because they support intervention,
:15:33. > :15:34.and the meeting is against intervention.
:15:35. > :15:37.APPLAUSE What's really disturbing is the way in which Diane Abbott
:15:38. > :15:39.closed down the meeting rather than allow Syrian Democratic left
:15:40. > :15:46.wing and civil society activists to speak.
:15:47. > :15:48.It's given the impression that she shares the questionable
:15:49. > :15:55.politics of Stop The War on the issue of Syria.
:15:56. > :15:59.But Stop The War insists a Syrian contributor did ask a question
:16:00. > :16:02.from the floor of that meeting and have rubbished the suggestion
:16:03. > :16:05.they support those who Western governments oppose.
:16:06. > :16:09.Obviously, you will have seen in recent days Stop The War
:16:10. > :16:13.explaining that they were opposed to Russian intervention in Syria
:16:14. > :16:17.as well as British intervention, so they are evenhanded.
:16:18. > :16:22.The reason I think people may think that is because we are a campaign
:16:23. > :16:26.based in Britain and our campaigning is obviously overwhelmingly
:16:27. > :16:29.orientated towards changing our own Government's policy.
:16:30. > :16:32.Welcome to Islington in north London.
:16:33. > :16:35.In there is Jeremy Corbyn's constituency office.
:16:36. > :16:38.This building is also home to the Stop The War coalition,
:16:39. > :16:41.but it is the figurative proximity rather than the literal one that
:16:42. > :16:46.I spoke to a number of Labour MPs who voted against air
:16:47. > :16:52.One told me that he wasn't so much worried about Stop The War
:16:53. > :16:55.and the influence it may have on Jeremy Corbyn and policy,
:16:56. > :16:58.but more that Jeremy Corbyn simply shares their views.
:16:59. > :17:01.There's dissent at the grass roots too.
:17:02. > :17:03.Last week 500 party members, including councillors,
:17:04. > :17:07.wrote to Mr Corbyn urging him to take a step back.
:17:08. > :17:10.Stop The War is not a Labour Party organisation.
:17:11. > :17:17.There are many people in it who have opposed the Labour Party
:17:18. > :17:19.and probably continue to oppose the Labour Party.
:17:20. > :17:22.I don't believe they hold to the values of solidarity,
:17:23. > :17:27.We also spoke to a number of Labour MPs who were relaxed
:17:28. > :17:29.about Jeremy Corbyn's connection to Stop The War, an organisation
:17:30. > :17:34.he's never made any secret of supporting.
:17:35. > :17:37.On Friday he went to the Christmas do, and said slurs by critics
:17:38. > :17:39.against Stop The War were an attempt to close down democratic
:17:40. > :17:46.He knows some of those critics include his own MPs.
:17:47. > :17:49.We're joined now from Leeds by the Labour MP, Richard Burgon.
:17:50. > :18:00.Morning, Andrew. The Communist Party of Britain, which has prominent
:18:01. > :18:06.members in stop the war, says attacks on stop the war are, quote,
:18:07. > :18:09.a systemic and vicious propaganda oi offensive designed to obscure
:18:10. > :18:13.British imperialism's agenda in conducting the bombing campaign in
:18:14. > :18:17.Syria. Do you agree with that? Well, first of all I think I'm in a good
:18:18. > :18:21.position to answer some of these questions, pause I've only ever been
:18:22. > :18:27.a member of the Labour Party. I joined when I was 15. What I really
:18:28. > :18:32.want to focus on is not the members of small political parties who may
:18:33. > :18:37.be involved in Stop The War Coalition, but the tens of
:18:38. > :18:41.thousands, in fact they've got an e-mail list of 150,000 people, many
:18:42. > :18:45.of whom are not in any political party, many of whom are in the
:18:46. > :18:48.Labour Party. The chairman who has taken over from Mr Corbyn is a
:18:49. > :18:52.member of the Communist Party of Britain, so what's the answer to my
:18:53. > :18:58.question? I think the attacks on stop the war are proxy attacks on
:18:59. > :19:07.Jeremy Corbyn. We haven't had that previously. When Charles Kennedy was
:19:08. > :19:10.speaking against the Iraq war, which 2 million people attended, Charles
:19:11. > :19:16.Kennedy wasn't attacked for that, and rightly so. But he wasn't a
:19:17. > :19:21.member of Stop The War Coalition. He spoke on the stop the war platform.
:19:22. > :19:26.But he wasn't a member? I'm not a member, there's a really important
:19:27. > :19:31.point here, it is right that people in democratic society express their
:19:32. > :19:35.views to MPs, march against things they think are incorrect. I do think
:19:36. > :19:38.the line and the leadership of the Stop The War Coalition hasn't
:19:39. > :19:41.changed in the 14 years since it was founded. What has changed is that
:19:42. > :19:45.Jeremy Corbyn has become leader of the Labour Party, so people in the
:19:46. > :19:49.media and elsewhere who wish to attack Jeremy Corbyn are using stop
:19:50. > :19:57.the war to do so. Of course it is not just the media, is it? It is not
:19:58. > :20:07.even the media. Labour MPses, Tristram Hunt, Stella Creasy, many
:20:08. > :20:10.more, they've attacked Stop the War Coalition and Jeremy Corbyn's
:20:11. > :20:13.support for it. I think the majority of Labour members agreed with Jeremy
:20:14. > :20:18.Corbyn on his analysis on whether or not we should agree to David
:20:19. > :20:22.Cameron's proposal to bomb Syria. But what do you say to their
:20:23. > :20:26.criticism of Mr Corbyn's continued association with Stop the War
:20:27. > :20:30.Coalition? I think they are mistaken. I think that stop the war,
:20:31. > :20:35.we've got to look at how stop the war has involved people from right
:20:36. > :20:40.across the political spectrum. When I was on that historical march in
:20:41. > :20:44.2003, there wasn't just the Lib Dem leader speaking but other people I
:20:45. > :20:48.spoke to, Conservative voters, so it is not just 57 varieties of
:20:49. > :20:55.Trotskyite groups that are involved. If it were the case it were merelily
:20:56. > :20:59.people on the ultraleft you wouldn't have 150,000 people involved or on
:21:00. > :21:03.the e-mail list. Who is not either a cop thirst, a Trotskyite or a
:21:04. > :21:08.Stalinist? Well, there are plenty of trade unions involved in the lip...
:21:09. > :21:12.Among the leadership, the people who lead this, whose names are
:21:13. > :21:15.associated with it, who doesn't Paul into that small hard left category?
:21:16. > :21:21.Well, it is a coalition, and that's the point of it. So give me another
:21:22. > :21:25.name that doesn't fall into that. Well, I wouldn't even know the full
:21:26. > :21:31.list of people on the board of stop the war, but what I do know is that
:21:32. > :21:33.there are people from trade unions supporting it, trade unions
:21:34. > :21:37.supporting it, probably in terms of the membership of Stop the War
:21:38. > :21:42.Coalition, the biggest composite of that are Labour Party members. But I
:21:43. > :21:46.do think this is a distraction of the democratic issue. We can't say
:21:47. > :21:50.that in this country being a member of a Stop the War Coalition
:21:51. > :21:53.campaign, campaigning against military interventions that were
:21:54. > :22:00.proven to be disastrous in Iraq and Libya is wrong. It is part of an
:22:01. > :22:05.open democratic process. People shouldn't be demonised for being
:22:06. > :22:09.part of it, or Jeremy Corbyn. I'm not doing that, what I'm trying to
:22:10. > :22:13.do is find out what stop the war really stands for and whether it is
:22:14. > :22:20.right to Jeremy Corbyn and other Labour people should be associated
:22:21. > :22:25.with it. They are had an article titled, Sociopaths United. The
:22:26. > :22:29.United States, Britain and their allies are no less sociopathic than
:22:30. > :22:34.the enemies they propose to hunt down. So British security forces are
:22:35. > :22:38.on a par with the beheaders, do you agree with that? I certainly don't
:22:39. > :22:44.agree with that. I think there've been things published on blogs on
:22:45. > :22:48.the stop the war website which are essential wrong, which I wouldn't
:22:49. > :22:50.agree with and the vast majority of people who are members of the Stop
:22:51. > :22:56.the War Coalition wouldn't agree with. I was reading in the paper
:22:57. > :22:59.this morning that the management of the website of the stop the war has
:23:00. > :23:05.changed. If that shows that they are going to be more careful to ensure
:23:06. > :23:09.that the content of the website on every occasion mirrorst or reflects,
:23:10. > :23:13.sorry, the view of the leadership of the Stop the War Coalition, then
:23:14. > :23:25.that's a welcome move. Well, it is certainly, if it is such a splendid
:23:26. > :23:29.organisation, it has to delete lots of articles it has published. It
:23:30. > :23:38.blamed the Paris attacks on French policy, claimed that the threat to
:23:39. > :23:43.the Yazidis was largely mythical, in fact force. And published a poem
:23:44. > :23:47.that quotes a well known anti-Semite and Holocaust denier. All of that it
:23:48. > :23:49.has had to take down. Does that sound like a respectable
:23:50. > :23:54.organisation that the Labour Party should be associated with? Well, the
:23:55. > :23:58.views that you've uncovered aren't views that I or members of the Stop
:23:59. > :24:05.the War Coalition would agree with. But the big picture is this. In a
:24:06. > :24:08.coalition there are always sorts of small numbers of individuals who
:24:09. > :24:11.come out with unacceptable views. But the fact is I'm interested in
:24:12. > :24:17.the democratic point, in the 2 million people that marched on 15th
:24:18. > :24:20.February 2003, in the thousands that protested against the intervention
:24:21. > :24:24.in Libya and intense the intervention in Syria. I'm not a
:24:25. > :24:29.pacifist but I think that the truth is that the Stop the War Coalition
:24:30. > :24:33.and the ordinary people from vicars to pensioners who marched against
:24:34. > :24:36.the war in Iraq, who marched against the intervention in Libya and have
:24:37. > :24:39.demonstrated against the intervention in Syria, they've got
:24:40. > :24:42.it right. Many of the people attacking Jeremy Corbyn and many of
:24:43. > :24:48.the people attacking the Stop the War Coalition have got it completely
:24:49. > :24:51.wrong. It is a topsy-turvy world we are in when attending Stop the War
:24:52. > :24:55.Coalition events is controversial. We are still pretending that Tony
:24:56. > :25:02.Blair and others got it right in Iraq. We haven't got much time Mr
:25:03. > :25:07.Burgon. Mr Corbyn stuck to his guns and went to the fundraiser. His spin
:25:08. > :25:11.doctor says the Labour Party is now slowly co hearing round Mr Corbyn's
:25:12. > :25:18.views, across a range of issues. Do you agree with that? I do. As I
:25:19. > :25:21.minced earlier, Jeremy Corbyn didn't instruct or order Labour MPs to vote
:25:22. > :25:27.against David Cameron's plan to bomb Syria. He gave them a free vote, and
:25:28. > :25:32.that that was the right thing to do. By a ratio of 2 to 1 Labour MPs
:25:33. > :25:38.agreed with Jeremy Corbyn's analysis, and by 2 to 1 members of
:25:39. > :25:47.the Shadow Cabinet agreed with Mr Corbyn. But on working tax credits,
:25:48. > :25:51.police cuts, issues such as ech attacking George Osborne's failed
:25:52. > :25:58.cuts and privatisationings the vast, of Labour MPs and members, and a lot
:25:59. > :26:03.of the public agree with him. Richard Burgon thank you for joining
:26:04. > :26:05.us and for persevering with the earpiece. I'm glad you stalk with
:26:06. > :26:11.it. Thank you. Take care. Bye. Yvette Cooper came third
:26:12. > :26:14.in the contest to become Her campaign only really came
:26:15. > :26:17.to life back in early September, when she became the first front rank
:26:18. > :26:20.UK politician to call for Britain to take in 10,000 refugees
:26:21. > :26:22.from the Syrian war. Now, in her new role as Chair
:26:23. > :26:25.of Labour's Refugees Taskforce, she's been on a fact-finding visit
:26:26. > :26:27.to the Jungle refugee 6,000 people are currently living
:26:28. > :26:42.in what, in most generous terms, Yvette Cooper, a former
:26:43. > :26:53.Shadow Home Secretary, a Labour leadership contender,
:26:54. > :26:56.argued over the summer Britain should take more Syrian asylum
:26:57. > :26:58.seekers than Now a backbencher, she is returned
:26:59. > :27:05.as a guest of citizens UK not to argue we should fling open
:27:06. > :27:09.the doors but that the jungle was a problem nobody has tried
:27:10. > :27:12.to find a solution to. Why do we not have UNHCR here doing
:27:13. > :27:16.proper assessments of everybody? And therefore actually they need
:27:17. > :27:25.to go back through You've got to have a proper process
:27:26. > :27:32.to assess people's refugee status and at the moment
:27:33. > :27:39.that's not happening. That's the real big tragedy of here,
:27:40. > :27:42.the people have got stuck here in these awful
:27:43. > :27:44.conditions and there's no Some would call it hell,
:27:45. > :27:48.that's a little hyperbolic, It's really purgatory,
:27:49. > :27:56.since there's a real sense nobody is going anywhere, unless to climb
:27:57. > :27:59.on board a lorry and illegally And a camp unsuited to summer
:28:00. > :28:05.is preparing for a winter it's There's an argument which says,
:28:06. > :28:09.if you help refugees, then somehow that
:28:10. > :28:11.will create a crisis. No, the crisis is here and now,
:28:12. > :28:16.the crisis is happening. The question is what we do to stop
:28:17. > :28:20.the crisis getting worse and worse, so you can't have people stuck
:28:21. > :28:25.living among the rubbish and the pools of water and the mud
:28:26. > :28:31.while they're applying for asylum. You've got to have a basic
:28:32. > :28:39.humanitarian aid in place. At the Medecins Sans Frontieres
:28:40. > :28:41.clinic on-site, the issue of the conditions and winter
:28:42. > :28:48.is a problem itself. The problem when we see the camp,
:28:49. > :28:52.it's very cold, the hygiene And what happens,
:28:53. > :29:02.the condition...the simple flu passes sometimes
:29:03. > :29:09.in the bronchal...and that's it. There are many women and children -
:29:10. > :29:14.yes, they are outnumbered - but they're housed in two sections
:29:15. > :29:17.of the camp we're not allowed to film in, though clearly some
:29:18. > :29:20.choose to live in other parts of the camp and walk
:29:21. > :29:22.the roads around. And it's the issue of unaccompanied
:29:23. > :29:25.minors with family already legally in the UK that is worrying
:29:26. > :29:29.some of the volunteers. So, there's a ten-year-old boy
:29:30. > :29:32.separated from his family and just There are eight-year-olds,
:29:33. > :29:40.nine-year-olds, ten-year-olds with family in the UK
:29:41. > :29:43.desperate to look after them, and come here to visit them
:29:44. > :29:45.and bring them things Do you suspect that people back home
:29:46. > :29:55.will see this and their natural humanity will say, "this is awful,
:29:56. > :29:58.that looks really dreadful, we still don't want
:29:59. > :30:00.lots of them to come"? The problem is you look
:30:01. > :30:11.around this and you think, how is this northern Europe,
:30:12. > :30:14.how can this be just a few miles How can this be what is
:30:15. > :30:17.happening in France? Yvette Cooper would be much happier
:30:18. > :30:20.if those minors were taken in with their families,
:30:21. > :30:22.and seems to be singing from a song sheet that says whether we take more
:30:23. > :30:26.refugees, fewer or none, it may well be a pressing question,
:30:27. > :30:42.but that the jungle in Calais Welcome back to the Sunday Politics.
:30:43. > :30:46.Should adults from this can be allowed into Britain? It depends on
:30:47. > :30:50.their circumstances. Most of them should be playing in France for
:30:51. > :30:56.asylum and that I think is what you would expect to happen. Some of them
:30:57. > :31:01.may not be refugees, some of them may have safe homes to go to and
:31:02. > :31:08.should do so. Clearly there's a lot of people there who have fled Syria,
:31:09. > :31:14.Afghanistan, who we know are fleeing conflict and persecution. There's a
:31:15. > :31:19.question about the children. We saw unaccompanied children. There are
:31:20. > :31:23.people traffickers, some cases where aid workers said they had families
:31:24. > :31:28.in Britain we were trying to reach. For example I spoke to a 15-year-old
:31:29. > :31:36.whose brother, his nearest relative is in Britain and he wants to join
:31:37. > :31:41.him. That's why he is in Calais. Should we let them in? We should
:31:42. > :31:48.have a process for him to be able to apply. We should be providing that
:31:49. > :31:54.sanctuary. I understand the children issue but I'm still not quite clear
:31:55. > :31:58.what your attitude is towards the adults there. Although a lot of
:31:59. > :32:03.people in this camp may have started as refugees, they are now in France.
:32:04. > :32:07.They are not in immediate danger of their lives so they now want to come
:32:08. > :32:12.to the UK because they think economic prospects are better here
:32:13. > :32:18.than in France. That makes their role economic migrants now. That's
:32:19. > :32:23.not the reality. They have no safe home at the moment, and I agree they
:32:24. > :32:26.should be playing right now and they should be assessed where they are.
:32:27. > :32:35.The French authorities should be doing a full assessment. So why are
:32:36. > :32:39.they not in there? Good question. Why are we leaving people in such
:32:40. > :32:44.awful conditions? If the French authorities cannot, we should get
:32:45. > :32:50.the UNHCR to come in and do a full assessment. There will also be
:32:51. > :32:54.people, I spoke for example to a single mother with two small
:32:55. > :33:00.children who had left Syria when her husband was killed in an Assad jail.
:33:01. > :33:08.She was trying to reach her father and brother, also in Britain. There
:33:09. > :33:13.should be a process for her to apply for sanctuary in Britain. If you had
:33:14. > :33:18.a fair system to apply, you might prevent people coming to Calais in
:33:19. > :33:25.the first place. Should we set up an asylum seeking vetting operation in
:33:26. > :33:29.Calais ourselves? We have a system the Government set up under pressure
:33:30. > :33:36.to take refugees from the camps in Syria. I'm talking about the camps
:33:37. > :33:42.in Calais. I agree but I'm saying we should prevent people coming to
:33:43. > :33:48.Calais in the first place. Once people have got to Calais, I think
:33:49. > :33:53.there is a case particularly for those children... We understand the
:33:54. > :33:58.children but I'm asking about adults because it is hard to know what your
:33:59. > :34:02.policy is on this. Should we start to say some of them are asylum
:34:03. > :34:06.seekers, the French are not doing their jobs properly, we will take
:34:07. > :34:14.them in once they go through the proper procedures - yes or no? Those
:34:15. > :34:19.who have formally in Britain should be able to apply for sanctuary in
:34:20. > :34:25.Britain but you need a system. You need to be able to do security
:34:26. > :34:30.checks and refugee checks. At the moment Britain is only taking 4000
:34:31. > :34:34.refugees per year. I think we could do more of that, and if we did that
:34:35. > :34:38.and worked with other countries we should be clearing the problems at
:34:39. > :34:44.Calais and preventing people coming to Europe on most dangerous boats in
:34:45. > :34:50.the first place. I know that people think we cannot solve this, it is
:34:51. > :34:57.too hard, but if we don't it will get worse. Some people may argue
:34:58. > :35:03.that the more you take in and give proper status to, you will encourage
:35:04. > :35:08.all the more to come into Europe. People are coming whatever happens.
:35:09. > :35:13.We are told there is another 5 million waiting to come. At one
:35:14. > :35:16.point the Government was arguing we shouldn't have search and rescue in
:35:17. > :35:21.the Mediterranean because that would encourage more people to come, I
:35:22. > :35:27.think that is immoral. People have come, they are travelling across
:35:28. > :35:33.Europe. Let me try to pin you down on that. It is still not clear what
:35:34. > :35:37.you want to do. Let's take the migrants who have made it into the
:35:38. > :35:42.EU this year. Although the German government took most itself, it
:35:43. > :35:48.tried to spread the burden through quotas of member states. Should we
:35:49. > :35:56.volunteer a quota? Yes, I think we should take 10,000 people. Only ten?
:35:57. > :36:01.The Germans are taking a lot more. The reason I said that figure is
:36:02. > :36:06.because that meant you would be talking about ten families for every
:36:07. > :36:11.city or County across the country and I also think the best way to do
:36:12. > :36:15.with this is to work with faith groups across the country and say
:36:16. > :36:21.how many refugees do you think you could support in each area.
:36:22. > :36:27.Germany's Labour market is in a different situation and they have a
:36:28. > :36:32.different demographic. So 10,000 out of Vermilion, that would be British
:36:33. > :36:37.response? That would be a good thing to do, but the truth is all
:36:38. > :36:41.countries will have to work together on this and there isn't a simple
:36:42. > :36:45.answer. It's not just about what you do in terms of the number of
:36:46. > :36:49.refugees you give sanctuary to, it's also how you prevent people
:36:50. > :36:54.travelling. We should reunite families and we have got to do
:36:55. > :36:59.something about humanitarian relief. There are people living in terrible
:37:00. > :37:02.conditions, with France and Britain being two of the most powerful
:37:03. > :37:08.countries in the world you would have thought it is not beyond the
:37:09. > :37:12.wit of these countries to make sure there is proper humanitarian relief,
:37:13. > :37:16.sanitation, and heating for people who will suffer not just from
:37:17. > :37:21.scabies but terrible conditions in those camps as the winter draws in.
:37:22. > :37:25.Indeed we shall see what horrors the winter brings because we have not
:37:26. > :37:29.gone through that yet in this migrant crisis. You heard a
:37:30. > :37:37.colleague of yours saying he thought the Labour Party was now moving
:37:38. > :37:40.strongly in Mr Corbyn's direction in policy matters, do you agree?
:37:41. > :37:44.There's been a lot of policies I disagree with, we have that debate
:37:45. > :37:50.over the summer. The challenge at the moment is that the Labour Party
:37:51. > :37:56.has an internal focus, looking inwards at ourselves. We have got to
:37:57. > :38:04.look outwards. You are not answering my question. Let me try one more
:38:05. > :38:09.time. Is your party moving broadly in Mr Corbyn's direction? I'm not
:38:10. > :38:12.sure quite what that means because we are having a debate in the party
:38:13. > :38:17.at the moment about what the policies should be in the future.
:38:18. > :38:23.The trouble is we cannot just make that debate look inwards when the
:38:24. > :38:27.Tories are being let off the hook on tax credits, Europe and a series of
:38:28. > :38:29.things. I will try to make the question more clear next time. Thank
:38:30. > :38:30.you. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:31. > :38:32.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:33. > :38:40.in Scotland, who leave us now Hello and welcome to
:38:41. > :38:43.the Sunday Politics Wales. A senior Labour AM wants more
:38:44. > :38:46.urgency from the Welsh Government Where next for military action
:38:47. > :38:51.in Syria and Jeremy Corbyn's leadership - we hear
:38:52. > :38:55.from a senior Labour MP. And some glad tidings in the Senedd
:38:56. > :38:59.- but how much Christmas joy Wales remains the worst performing
:39:00. > :39:13.part of the UK when it comes That was confirmed by the latest GVA
:39:14. > :39:17.figures published this week - which indicate how much is produced
:39:18. > :39:20.for every person working in Wales. But behind the big economic
:39:21. > :39:22.indicators are people's experiences. And for a significant proportion
:39:23. > :39:24.of people in Wales that At a time of year when there's
:39:25. > :39:29.an even greater squeeze on finances, our reporter Bethan Lewis has been
:39:30. > :39:46.hearing about the reality of trying Thursday afternoon in this sends
:39:47. > :39:54.advice office in Pontypridd, a debt clinic is being held. We had a
:39:55. > :39:58.couple asking, begging for a food voucher, because they don't have
:39:59. > :40:04.food. One of the things we are facing, and the community are
:40:05. > :40:09.facing, Christmas cannot be nice being spent for your family. They
:40:10. > :40:13.see the names and faces behind the statistics every day. We had another
:40:14. > :40:17.client walking into a hospital asking the could live in the
:40:18. > :40:25.hospital because life is that path outside. Living on ?38 a week. Could
:40:26. > :40:30.you live on ?38 a week? There is an established definition for poverty,
:40:31. > :40:40.that behind the jargon, what does it mean in practice? Luc Evans is a
:40:41. > :40:44.carpet fit in Mountain Ash. He is struggling to pay council tax debts
:40:45. > :40:55.and rent arrears when he was unemployed. I worked for two years,
:40:56. > :41:00.then I got a job. Things looking better, but still tried to find the
:41:01. > :41:06.money to pay off what I/O. Really stressful. You lose a lot of sleep.
:41:07. > :41:17.Sometimes you are afraid to answer the door if someone knocks. They are
:41:18. > :41:23.nice people, but it is their job, the bailiffs, like anyone else. Very
:41:24. > :41:30.stressful. More than one in five people in Wales live in poverty,
:41:31. > :41:36.around 700,000 people. Many of those live in working households. Over the
:41:37. > :41:40.last decade and more the percentage of people living in poverty in Wales
:41:41. > :41:45.has barely changed. Earlier this year an assembly committee said it
:41:46. > :41:49.was deeply concerned about the Welsh government's lack of progress in
:41:50. > :41:54.reducing poverty. Areas like the north-east of England have seen a
:41:55. > :41:57.drop, there has been very little improvement in Wales, with only
:41:58. > :42:02.London above it in the poverty league table. Christine Chapman is
:42:03. > :42:07.the chair the which produced a report on poverty in Wales. We are
:42:08. > :42:11.rich country in a way, but people are still struggling with their
:42:12. > :42:17.heating bills, food, that is absolutely appalling. There must be
:42:18. > :42:22.a strong message to the UK Government, things need to change.
:42:23. > :42:26.From the Welsh government point of view, there needs to be high-level
:42:27. > :42:30.discussions amongst all the ministers, as to how we can really
:42:31. > :42:37.address this. Good work is being done. We need to certainly speed
:42:38. > :42:42.things up. The Welsh government says it is working relentlessly to tackle
:42:43. > :42:46.the root causes of poverty. Dealing with the effects of UK Government
:42:47. > :42:53.austerity and welfare reforms, lifting people out of poverty, they
:42:54. > :42:57.say it is at the heart of its work. For Luke, and others Christmas
:42:58. > :43:05.brings extra pressures. Making sure my daughter has a good Christmas,
:43:06. > :43:12.she has food in the house, learning to budget that extra bit more for
:43:13. > :43:18.Christmas. With basic money, really. Some people go out, they can get the
:43:19. > :43:26.kids whatever they ask for. It does get stressful. She will appreciate
:43:27. > :43:32.it more than having everything she wanted anyway. Seven years in the
:43:33. > :43:36.job, Gemma Jones says there have been changes, but no basic
:43:37. > :43:42.improvements. I have only seen it get worse, really. I haven't seen
:43:43. > :43:45.clients coming, they come in and say things about the government, but
:43:46. > :43:51.they never say that is really good, that has helped me. We don't see
:43:52. > :43:54.that. I don't know what is going wrong, but we see a lot more clients
:43:55. > :44:01.in poverty, other than saying they're better off. Making sure
:44:02. > :44:06.everyone can afford the basics, food, shelter and fuel, is a steady
:44:07. > :44:07.goal. It's been three months
:44:08. > :44:09.since Jeremy Corbyn became leader Fair to say he's had a few highs
:44:10. > :44:14.and more than a few lows. Perhaps the most difficult episode
:44:15. > :44:20.centred around the vote on air strikes against
:44:21. > :44:22.so-called IS in Syria. It's just over a week since RAF jets
:44:23. > :44:24.expanded their strikes Madeliene Moon is the Labour MP
:44:25. > :44:36.for Bridgend and a member Thank you very much for coming in.
:44:37. > :44:39.You voted against the air strikes, what made you come to those
:44:40. > :44:45.conclusions? It is an issue capability. I have been on the
:44:46. > :44:51.Defence Select Committee for three parliaments, track capability, and
:44:52. > :44:55.look at how able are our personnel to carry out missions. What
:44:56. > :45:01.equipment do they have? What are the facts on the ground that lead us to
:45:02. > :45:06.think we are able to do this, but have the capability to do it. Lots
:45:07. > :45:11.of people talk about the rights and wrongs, that the first question is
:45:12. > :45:16.not should we do it, but can we do it? I could not get answers to so
:45:17. > :45:24.many of my questions about how many planes were we going to send? We had
:45:25. > :45:31.eight, because we needed eight to fly two. How many other game to
:45:32. > :45:37.send, given the Tornadoes are old platform? We have a lack of pilots,
:45:38. > :45:46.engineers and navigators to get the planes in the air. People talk about
:45:47. > :45:50.the Typhoon, but the typhoon cannot carry the Brimstone missile, which
:45:51. > :45:58.the Americans are keen to utilise. It seems to undermine any nation
:45:59. > :46:04.these air strikes can get to grips with so-called Islamic State
:46:05. > :46:09.fighters in Syria? One my issues was, we have been flying missions in
:46:10. > :46:25.Iraq, we have managed to take back 30% of the land held by
:46:26. > :46:35.Daesh. We made the same mistake in Afghanistan, going to Iraq,
:46:36. > :46:41.splitting our forces and give ability. Since then we have had a
:46:42. > :46:45.30% cut in our Armed Forces, yet we're still thinking we can fight on
:46:46. > :46:52.two fronts with an air force considerably diminished. For me, not
:46:53. > :46:55.acceptable. We heard a couple of weeks ago the Chancellor George
:46:56. > :47:01.Osborne saying the spending would go up to two percent of GDP, what Nato
:47:02. > :47:08.countries are supposed to be contributing. Will that make any
:47:09. > :47:14.difference in the next 4-5 years! That is jam tomorrow, it is not
:47:15. > :47:18.there to day. We don't have the new Lightning Two aircraft today. We
:47:19. > :47:26.don't have the new control aircraft today. They are thrown out in the
:47:27. > :47:30.future, 2020. As part of the Defence Select Committee, you are travelling
:47:31. > :47:36.to Iraq to see the work there. Is it your concern, those gains achieved
:47:37. > :47:41.in Iraq could be lost, because attention is focused elsewhere,
:47:42. > :47:58.particularly in Syria? David Cameron said the head of the snake is in
:47:59. > :48:05.Syria, but Daesh is not a snake, it is a Hydra. We have to make sure the
:48:06. > :48:11.people on the ground have the capabilities to fight back, and we
:48:12. > :48:18.support the grand treats of the people in the country. We can add
:48:19. > :48:23.value, but we don't fight the war. I was in Iraq, this time last year.
:48:24. > :48:27.The Iraqis were very clear, they did not want us on the ground, but they
:48:28. > :48:34.did want us in the air, they need and want our support. That is where
:48:35. > :48:38.we need to keep fighting. You talk about keeping fighting, but the
:48:39. > :48:42.position of the leader of the Labour Party is against any more action,
:48:43. > :48:48.air strikes or otherwise in area and in the region. To what extent does
:48:49. > :48:53.that make it more difficult to continue to go down the path you
:48:54. > :48:58.would like to see at least? The real risk is that we get into the very
:48:59. > :49:04.easy sideshow of internal politics within the political party. We are
:49:05. > :49:09.at war. My concern quite honestly is about the safety of our personnel,
:49:10. > :49:12.weather and not we're giving the personnel the actual equipment and
:49:13. > :49:18.platforms and training, and the numbers to do the job? That is my
:49:19. > :49:23.priority. That is where the Defence Select Committee is focused. We have
:49:24. > :49:28.our own battles as a committee to fight. In a sense, every time we say
:49:29. > :49:33.we want to go somewhere, the MoD finds lots of reasons why we cannot
:49:34. > :49:39.go there. We are battling that at the moment. We will go to Iraq,
:49:40. > :49:47.Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Because we need to know. Another group will go
:49:48. > :49:52.to Jordan, Lebanon. So we have a wide ranging view of what is
:49:53. > :49:53.happening on the ground. Come back once you have returned safe and well
:49:54. > :49:56.from Iraq. They keep or your time. Seasonal good tidings
:49:57. > :49:58.for the NHS earlier this week as the Welsh Government announced
:49:59. > :50:04.it's budget for next year. There was less goodwill for councils
:50:05. > :50:07.who face a cut of two per cent. but that was the major department
:50:08. > :50:10.to see reductions in a budget that felt far less austere
:50:11. > :50:25.than previous settlements. A rare example of harmony, the
:50:26. > :50:29.Senedd celebrating the season of goodwill to all. Not easy to get
:50:30. > :50:35.politicians to sing from the same hymn sheet when it came to last
:50:36. > :50:38.week's budget. The big winner was health, which the Welsh government
:50:39. > :50:47.will support ahead of next year's assembly elections. The NHS gets 278
:50:48. > :50:51.million extra pounds, 0.6 increase compared to 2010. They pointed
:50:52. > :50:57.Treasury figures showing spending on health is 1% per head higher in
:50:58. > :51:00.Wales than England. The Conservatives say once you take
:51:01. > :51:13.inflation into account, the funding for the NHS in Wales is nearly ?6.3
:51:14. > :51:18.billion, ?93 million less than 2010. That is as a result of the Welsh
:51:19. > :51:25.government's position not to protect funding between 2010-2013. The
:51:26. > :51:33.leader of the government said they had ultimately done well. It has led
:51:34. > :51:38.to better tax returns, more money in the Treasury, allowing the
:51:39. > :51:40.Chancellor to divvy up more money to the Dibaba administrations. This is
:51:41. > :51:44.a Welsh government unable at present to raise any of its own money,
:51:45. > :51:50.dependent on the UK Government. They cannot have it both ways. The gum in
:51:51. > :51:53.Cardiff is trying to make up for the mistakes in the first part of the
:51:54. > :51:59.assembly when they devastated health spending, the only part of the UK to
:52:00. > :52:03.do that. Now taking a knife to local government budgets across Wales.
:52:04. > :52:10.Councils will see a two percent cut to their budgets next year. Weber
:52:11. > :52:14.rule, pretty much every department except local government sees a cash
:52:15. > :52:20.increase. It does not feel like an austerity budget, it feels like the
:52:21. > :52:23.Welsh government has got extra money, and although there have been
:52:24. > :52:27.cuts, the government has listened, particularly to the Welsh Liberal
:52:28. > :52:33.Democrats, the deal we did with them, and the things we have been
:52:34. > :52:37.saying, protecting key areas. There are still concerns, despite the four
:52:38. > :52:41.percent increase, health spending will not be enough to get to grips
:52:42. > :52:47.with the challenges in the NHS. This is too little, too late. Woeful
:52:48. > :52:52.inadequacies in the health service, nothing in this budget today that
:52:53. > :52:58.tells us there is a plan to plan properly for the workforce, where
:52:59. > :53:01.Ruddy extra doctors coming from? Not confident there is going to be any
:53:02. > :53:05.change of outcomes as a result of this will stop when she appeared on
:53:06. > :53:09.our programme a fortnight ago, the finance and Mr told us they would be
:53:10. > :53:15.difficult choices to make because of cuts from the UK Government. With so
:53:16. > :53:21.many giveaways in the government, DG over a the challenge? This budget
:53:22. > :53:25.was about priorities, that one thing to put money into that of service.
:53:26. > :53:30.Nearly 300 million going into the health service, widely welcomed,
:53:31. > :53:36.also protecting further education, apprenticeship. Making sure we can
:53:37. > :53:41.protect our schools and social care. About priorities, tough making those
:53:42. > :53:45.decisions. As it goes into scrutiny, people will be saying why did you
:53:46. > :53:51.have to pull back on this area spending? Clearly be goodwill were
:53:52. > :53:57.last that long. Pressure groups and organisations have been warning cuts
:53:58. > :54:01.will affect various public services. While the Senedd was full of
:54:02. > :54:03.Christmas cheer, the message was far from festive.
:54:04. > :54:05.You heard next year's Assembly elections mentioned there -
:54:06. > :54:08.well let's take a look ahead to them - with Cathy Owens,
:54:09. > :54:09.a former adviser to the Welsh Government,
:54:10. > :54:11.and Anthony Pickles, the former chief of staff
:54:12. > :54:23.Thank you both for coming in. We heard in the report there, a fair
:54:24. > :54:28.few giveaways, Ralph, massive winner, education, to a certain
:54:29. > :54:32.extent. To what extent do you think the devil is in the detail? Seems
:54:33. > :54:39.the giveaway, but an awful lot of losses. They have protected areas
:54:40. > :54:43.people are worried about. Local services, the NHS, social services,
:54:44. > :54:49.schools. Things we have not seen, quite a cut in revenue funding in
:54:50. > :54:53.lots of different areas. Revenue funding is like the environment
:54:54. > :54:58.portfolio. Economic development, huge cuts across the board apart
:54:59. > :55:05.from one particular area. There is some extra capital spending, flood
:55:06. > :55:10.risk. Roads, rail. Also things that are nice to have, that the Welsh
:55:11. > :55:14.government have been trying to protect in the last five years. New
:55:15. > :55:18.organisations that have not had cuts, getting some cuts now.
:55:19. > :55:24.Interesting phone calls, we will see them coming out in the next month or
:55:25. > :55:30.two. The big winner has been the health service. The Conservatives
:55:31. > :55:35.have said next year's assembly election is on the health service,
:55:36. > :55:45.has that Fox been shot? Identikit has, the -- I don't think it has,
:55:46. > :55:52.the timing is interesting. Carwyn Jones took difficult decisions,
:55:53. > :55:58.their words effect on outcomes in the NHS. The elections will be seen
:55:59. > :56:03.as a referendum by many. Looking at the decisions, like they cannot fund
:56:04. > :56:06.a cancer drug funded Wales will stop independent enquiry, born at
:56:07. > :56:13.politically in May in the general election with some of the seats we
:56:14. > :56:16.saw won. The problem with the NHS you throw statistics from one site
:56:17. > :56:22.to another, a lot more heat than light being shared on the issue.
:56:23. > :56:26.Treasury figures showing it is 1% higher in Wales than England.
:56:27. > :56:33.Difficult issue to get to the heart of it. Both sides slinging numbers
:56:34. > :56:38.and facts and figures? That is true. I think if you look at what
:56:39. > :56:46.backbenchers are saying, you can see why this decision has been taken.
:56:47. > :56:51.Five seats held by the Conservatives in Wales, not currently held in the
:56:52. > :56:56.assembly. There will be some Labour AMs having to decisions about health
:56:57. > :57:00.spending. The perception of the differences between Wales and
:57:01. > :57:08.England, which has had a real effect on the opinion polls. England is no
:57:09. > :57:14.utopia, there are a dozen or so trust in special measures, 60 or 70
:57:15. > :57:20.accident and emergency units being shut. It is not a panacea. The
:57:21. > :57:24.argument has been somewhat lost. Labour has lost 15% in the polls in
:57:25. > :57:28.the last couple of years, largely to do with health, even though people
:57:29. > :57:35.know there is no crisis here more than England. All of this additional
:57:36. > :57:40.money, ?278 million additional next year going into the NHS, which could
:57:41. > :57:44.have been so helpful for organisations that are seen cuts.
:57:45. > :57:48.The Labour garment is making the political decision to take money
:57:49. > :57:53.from this part of the budget, putting it mainly into health. We
:57:54. > :57:59.are talking about an extra ?250 million going to health, in a ?15
:58:00. > :58:05.billion budget. 47% of the Welsh budget is made up by NHS spending.
:58:06. > :58:12.Absolutely true. That is because the health element of responsibility,
:58:13. > :58:16.health and social services. Always been a high proportion. Because of
:58:17. > :58:20.the responsibilities the Welsh government has. They are spending
:58:21. > :58:25.more money on health, but also more on social services, and that will
:58:26. > :58:29.have an impact on the future of England, that is the bit that has
:58:30. > :58:35.been cut quite drastically. The problem for the Conservatives, in
:58:36. > :58:38.2011, the Welsh Labour government's manifesto was against these cuts
:58:39. > :58:43.coming from the UK Government. We hear it every budget. Difficult for
:58:44. > :58:49.the Conservatives as they get to next May's collections, to say the
:58:50. > :58:56.cuts are the Conservatives' fault, but you have to blame Labour as
:58:57. > :58:59.well? I don't think it is. People voted in seats that nobody expected
:59:00. > :59:03.would-be Conservative gains, because of the outcomes in the economy
:59:04. > :59:08.across-the-board in the UK. That did not stop on the Welsh border. The
:59:09. > :59:12.health message is different in Wales, cutting through the general
:59:13. > :59:19.election. I would not be surprisingly does not cut again in
:59:20. > :59:24.May. Looking towards May, the great unknown for Conservatives and Labour
:59:25. > :59:27.will be Ukip, where will they take votes, what will the effect the? If
:59:28. > :59:34.he were still advising the Welsh, still had a voice to the Labour
:59:35. > :59:39.leader what would you tell them? Not to be complacent, because people say
:59:40. > :59:44.you will never have nine Ukip members in the assembly. We might
:59:45. > :59:48.very well have. They don't have to do anything rather than turn up and
:59:49. > :59:52.win the seat. You would hope that Labour in the next six months will
:59:53. > :59:56.be focusing on a couple of core messages, one of those, if you speak
:59:57. > :00:01.to the business community, they will argue what the Welsh government have
:00:02. > :00:05.been doing is to support what they are planning on, industry led
:00:06. > :00:12.investment. Infrastructure, skills, that is important to them. You would
:00:13. > :00:17.hope they take a grasp of some of the salient issues, in terms of
:00:18. > :00:23.waiting times that we now and May. Get those messages across, that is
:00:24. > :00:29.where I would focus my campaign. I guess that applies only to be 70
:00:30. > :00:34.party? Ukip will be taking votes in droves from the Conservatives. You
:00:35. > :00:38.cannot be Dubuisson, the polls showing there will be a bounce for
:00:39. > :00:46.Ukip. Personally I don't believe it, they polled 13% in May, I don't
:00:47. > :00:50.believe they will call 13% in May. Talking about eight or nine seats.
:00:51. > :00:55.With the regional situation, we won't get near to that? I don't
:00:56. > :00:59.think so. That level of complacency is worrying. What is really
:01:00. > :01:03.happening at the next election, there are many seats where the
:01:04. > :01:08.Conservatives are challenging Labour to some degree, and the Ukip vote is
:01:09. > :01:14.the bits making the difference. You could see a lot of seats, like
:01:15. > :01:19.Wrexham, change hands because of the impact of the Ukip factor. We
:01:20. > :01:23.delivered for Ukip a system that perfectly rewards them, parties that
:01:24. > :01:27.come second and third, that is now Ukip.
:01:28. > :01:30.Don't forget you follow all the latest on Twitter -
:01:31. > :01:32.we're @walespolitics but for now that's all from me -
:01:33. > :01:36.Diolch am wilio, a Nadolig Llawen - thanks for watching,
:01:37. > :01:48.Will David Cameron get his way in Europe?
:01:49. > :01:53.Are Labour MPs coming to terms with the idea that Jeremy Corbyn
:01:54. > :02:07.All questions for The Week Ahead and the Year Ahead.
:02:08. > :02:10.And joining us to gaze into our crystal ball for 2016
:02:11. > :02:15.is the Conservative MP, James Cleverly.
:02:16. > :02:21.Welcome to the programme. If the Prime Minister cannot even get his
:02:22. > :02:25.minimum demands in the renegotiation with Europe, would you vote to
:02:26. > :02:30.leave? I've always felt his best chance of getting a good result from
:02:31. > :02:33.Europe is if there is a credible leave campaign, with people like me
:02:34. > :02:38.saying that if we don't get a good deal for Britain we would campaign
:02:39. > :02:44.to leave. That might feel like a stone in his shoe at the moment but
:02:45. > :02:54.unless people genuinely believe that he won't get the best deal for
:02:55. > :03:00.Britain. He says he rules nothing out. No one
:03:01. > :03:06.really believes the Prime Minister wants to leave the European Union or
:03:07. > :03:10.would lead a campaign to do so. But if the country as a whole is making
:03:11. > :03:15.those kind of noises, the people the Prime Minister is negotiating with,
:03:16. > :03:19.our partners in Europe, may think it is in their best interests to give
:03:20. > :03:24.him the deal he's looking for. Should he be asking for more? The
:03:25. > :03:33.Prime Minister is always at his best when his bold, I think you should be
:03:34. > :03:37.cheeky with the things he asks for, but recognise we are not going to
:03:38. > :03:48.get everything. Could we get more than he is asking for? The
:03:49. > :03:53.particular vehicle that he uses to get results shouldn't be quite so
:03:54. > :03:56.important as the results themselves. What you are not saying, but it is
:03:57. > :04:02.clear what you think, he should be tougher with Europe. I don't think
:04:03. > :04:07.it is possible to be tough enough with Europe. We've got to keep
:04:08. > :04:12.pushing and if we get something, push for more. Ultimately the deal
:04:13. > :04:17.he comes back with will be judged by the British people. I understand
:04:18. > :04:20.that. Tory politicians say that simply because they don't want to
:04:21. > :04:27.answer the questions I am asking because that is flannel. Most
:04:28. > :04:31.Conservative backbenchers I speak to think what he's asking for is not
:04:32. > :04:36.nearly enough. If he cannot even bring that back, I would suggest to
:04:37. > :04:42.you he will not carry a majority of his MPs in Parliament. The deal on
:04:43. > :04:46.the table... We have seen this from the Paris climate summit, the deals
:04:47. > :04:51.are done in the 11th hour so we will know what deal is on the table only
:04:52. > :04:57.at the 11th hour, then we will judge that deal when we see it. When you
:04:58. > :05:00.negotiate, you don't come out with demands and then as the negotiation
:05:01. > :05:08.goes on make these demands even greater! Yes, you do. I've never
:05:09. > :05:12.seen a negotiation like that, but good luck to you. What demand should
:05:13. > :05:18.he ask for that he's not asking for now? I will not try to second-guess
:05:19. > :05:23.because you have got to trade things, give a little bit there...
:05:24. > :05:27.I'm asking you to tell me what you think he should be asking of Europe
:05:28. > :05:33.that he's not asking at the moment. Most people would agree we want to
:05:34. > :05:38.have better control around who gets benefits. No, he's asking for that.
:05:39. > :05:44.Let me try one more time - what should he ask for that he's not
:05:45. > :05:50.asking for at the moment? As I said, I'm not going to second-guess that.
:05:51. > :05:55.I give up! Let me come on to Mr Corbyn. I would suggest to you, Tom
:05:56. > :06:00.Newton Dunn, that Jeremy Corbyn is ending this year in a much more
:06:01. > :06:05.secure position than it looked when he first got elected or at the
:06:06. > :06:09.Labour Party conference. I completely agree with you. When this
:06:10. > :06:17.crystallised was during the Syria vote, the week before last, when we
:06:18. > :06:30.thought the majority of Conservative MPs would abstain -- Labour MPs.
:06:31. > :06:35.Perhaps the Prime Minister's case wasn't that strong but they felt
:06:36. > :06:39.scared. The Corbyn machine, the unions put a lot of pressure on them
:06:40. > :06:43.and that was the turning point. He played his part in getting the
:06:44. > :06:47.Chancellor to withdraw on the tax credit front, he has carried the
:06:48. > :06:53.bulk of his Parliamentary party on Syria and most of his cabinet as
:06:54. > :06:58.well, and I would suggest, Helen, that the anti-Jeremy Corbyn forces
:06:59. > :07:02.are now bereft of a strategy. Yes, they have a huge problem that the
:07:03. > :07:11.members who voted for Jeremy Corbyn think he is doing really well. The
:07:12. > :07:17.PLP needs to get behind him. The problem is I think sometimes we get
:07:18. > :07:26.the narrative on Corbyn wrong. A lot of his deeply held principles, think
:07:27. > :07:33.about giving that free vote on Syria, he has been a member of the
:07:34. > :07:43.Stop The War coalition since it started, and yet he didn't say Acme
:07:44. > :07:50.or you will go. But he will now, given that he is ending the year in
:07:51. > :07:54.a pretty strong decision, he will, I suggest, in the New Year, start to
:07:55. > :08:00.remould the Labour Party much more in his image of what he stands for.
:08:01. > :08:05.Absolutely. I don't think there's much chance of being a successful
:08:06. > :08:08.challenge to Jeremy Corbyn in 2016 and that's because the members are
:08:09. > :08:13.broadly behind him. The reason that's a disaster for the Labour
:08:14. > :08:16.Party is because of what will happen in September, the annual Labour
:08:17. > :08:21.Party conference by the seaside somewhere. They will use that moment
:08:22. > :08:24.to push through rule changes to make it harder for the Parliamentary
:08:25. > :08:30.Labour Party and mainstream forces to fight against what he wants, and
:08:31. > :08:38.to embed what they think in terms of official Labour Party positions and
:08:39. > :08:42.what Helen said he should do. When Mr Corbyn won the Labour leadership,
:08:43. > :08:47.the Conservatives thought Christmas had come early. He is actually
:08:48. > :08:53.proving to be a tougher leader than you thought. Only lazy observers
:08:54. > :08:58.would assume his leadership would make life easy for us. He galvanised
:08:59. > :09:02.a huge number of people in the country. I think he is so wrong on
:09:03. > :09:07.so many levels it is beyond belief but lots of other people seem to
:09:08. > :09:11.think he is right. We need to find ways of countering his political
:09:12. > :09:15.agenda because it is wrong and dangerous, but we need to do so at
:09:16. > :09:20.the same time as understanding why he managed to have such a
:09:21. > :09:24.grass-roots appeal. Although you all seem to be agreed he is ending the
:09:25. > :09:31.year on a strong note, the Labour Party Christmas party was not a lot
:09:32. > :09:34.of laughs, was it? What happened? It sounded like a slightly awkward
:09:35. > :09:40.occasion. This is the moment when all of the Labour Party staff get
:09:41. > :09:44.together, a free fake, one of the Shadow Cabinet plays Santa. You've
:09:45. > :09:49.got to picture the scene, about ten tables of staff who all pretty much
:09:50. > :09:55.come from the mainstream, and one and a half tables of allies of
:09:56. > :09:59.Jeremy Corbyn huddled in one part, and the two clans didn't really mix.
:10:00. > :10:05.There was only one real moment of dissent it felt like when somebody
:10:06. > :10:13.at around 1115 PM Port Things Can Only Get Better on, and that is
:10:14. > :10:20.about as open as Labour Party revolts get. I want to show you a
:10:21. > :10:30.Christmas party from the Daily Politics archive. Who is our secret
:10:31. > :10:35.Santa? Here he comes. It is a bit difficult to see. The first clue is
:10:36. > :10:39.that he is a Labour MP, he's been a member of Parliament since 1983 for
:10:40. > :10:47.the smallest constituency in Britain. Next clue, he is one of
:10:48. > :10:58.just 12 Labour MPs to back Plaid Cymru and the SNP's call for an
:10:59. > :11:13.inquiry into the war. Finally, he chairs the Parliamentary wing of
:11:14. > :11:24.CND, and you should know this, Meg? Jeremy Corbyn? I thought it was the
:11:25. > :11:34.real Santa! Yes please, thank you very much. Jeremy Corbyn, having
:11:35. > :11:38.more fun at the Daily Politics Christmas party than he did the
:11:39. > :11:47.Labour Party one. Will there be an EU referendum next
:11:48. > :11:59.year? No. Yes. Yes. No. By this time next year will Jeremy Corbyn still
:12:00. > :12:04.be a Labour leader? ALL: Yes. If David Cameron loses the
:12:05. > :12:12.referendum, will he be able to survive as Prime Minister? Yes. You
:12:13. > :12:17.have got to say that! Will Philip Hammond remained Foreign
:12:18. > :12:23.Secretary next year? On what? Will he remain Foreign Secretary? No.
:12:24. > :12:29.They might have to be a reshuffle. Hilary Benn, will he remain as
:12:30. > :12:35.Shadow Foreign Secretary? No. Will the Government finally approved a
:12:36. > :12:41.third runway at Heathrow? No, definitely not. Yes. No. Will we
:12:42. > :12:50.ever get to see the Chilcot inquiry in 2016? Yes. No. I don't know. Will
:12:51. > :12:57.Donald Trump win the Republican nomination next year? No. No. Who is
:12:58. > :13:06.going to be the new Mayor of London? Sadiq Khan. Probably Sadiq Khan, it
:13:07. > :13:12.is a Labour city. Zac Goldsmith, and it is not a Labour city, trust me.
:13:13. > :13:15.He would be much better at soaking up the second preference votes.
:13:16. > :13:19.That's a bit technical for us! That's all for today and, in fact,
:13:20. > :13:21.all from the Sunday Politics this year. I'll
:13:22. > :13:24.be back here on 10th January. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:25. > :13:26.it's the Sunday Politics. Unless, of course, it's
:13:27. > :13:29.the festive season.