:00:37. > :00:45.David Cameron says he's hopeful for a deal next month
:00:46. > :00:49.on a new relationship between Britain and the European Union.
:00:50. > :00:57.Is momentum building for a referendum this summer?
:00:58. > :00:59.He sacked two ministers, prompting three to resign
:01:00. > :01:03.but is Jeremy Corbyn in a more powerful position at the end
:01:04. > :01:05.of a tumultuous week for the Labour Party?
:01:06. > :01:10.We'll speak to Shadow Cabinet Minister Lucy Powell.
:01:11. > :01:15.Later in the programme, Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt
:01:16. > :01:19.will Jeremy Corbyn help or hinder Labour in May's Assembly elections?
:01:20. > :01:23.And what are the lessons to be learned from last month's floods?
:01:24. > :01:25.and we will talking about fares, housing, and whether things
:01:26. > :01:39.We're ten days into 2016 and we've not sacked them and they've not
:01:40. > :01:44.resigned yet, so with me, the best and the brightest political
:01:45. > :01:50.panel in the business, Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.
:01:51. > :01:53.So David Cameron toured Europe last week continuing his re-negotiation
:01:54. > :01:55.of Britain's EU membership ahead of the referendum.
:01:56. > :01:57.He knows that whatever he comes back with will not persuade
:01:58. > :02:02.So they will be free to campaign for an exit.
:02:03. > :02:05.But this morning the Prime Minister made it clearer than ever
:02:06. > :02:07.that he would be campaigning to stay in the EU.
:02:08. > :02:18.My aim is clear, the best of both worlds for Britain, the massive
:02:19. > :02:23.prize of sorting out what frustrates us about Europe, but staying in a
:02:24. > :02:27.reformed Europe. The prize is closer than it was and I will work around
:02:28. > :02:31.the clock to get that done. The government will not be neutral about
:02:32. > :02:35.this issue with people on one side or the other, my intention is that
:02:36. > :02:38.at the conclusion of the negotiation, the Cabinet reaches a
:02:39. > :02:43.clear recommendation for the British people on what we will do. I hope
:02:44. > :02:48.that we'll be staying in a reformed European Union, because I have got a
:02:49. > :02:50.good negotiation for Britain. At that point, clear government
:02:51. > :03:04.position, members of the Cabinet, ministers with
:03:05. > :03:05.long-standing, long-held views on a different basis, they will be able
:03:06. > :03:06.to campaign. And we're joined now
:03:07. > :03:18.by the eurosceptic Conservative MP, Who should lead the out campaign? I
:03:19. > :03:22.do not think personalities matter. The Prime Minister matters because
:03:23. > :03:27.he has a big personality. For the out campaign, you have Nigella
:03:28. > :03:32.Lawson, other people. No doubt you will have four five Cabinet
:03:33. > :03:35.ministers. Does it not need to be a better known public figure than
:03:36. > :03:41.Nigel Lawson, who was Chancellor in the 1980s, or Chris Grayling or even
:03:42. > :03:45.yourself? No, people will not make their decision on the basis of which
:03:46. > :03:50.pretty face is leading the campaign. They will make it on one basis
:03:51. > :03:56.alone, will it be good for my job or bad for my job? The argument will be
:03:57. > :04:02.about economic is, jobs, not these other bogus numbers that come up, it
:04:03. > :04:08.will be about my job, is my industry protected? Boris Johnson, Theresa
:04:09. > :04:13.May? There will be lots of our timid in Westminster, should Boris lead,
:04:14. > :04:17.it will not matter. What matters is the tactics and strategy. That will
:04:18. > :04:23.be decided before the conclusion of the negotiation. Nigel Farage has
:04:24. > :04:25.had a torrid time since the general election, culminating in the
:04:26. > :04:33.assassination attempt that apparently was not. Is he a
:04:34. > :04:38.liability to the leave campaign? No, probably not. He has about 3 million
:04:39. > :04:46.people who are supporting him. Some of them in his party? He is his
:04:47. > :04:51.party, to a large extent. I do not think is a liability, everyone knows
:04:52. > :04:55.what he and his party are like. Has he got lots of credibility? It has
:04:56. > :05:00.slipped backwards since the general election. I do not think the parties
:05:01. > :05:05.matter. The personalities do not matter. This will be a personal
:05:06. > :05:10.decision. What percentage of Tory MPs do you reckon we'll leave? It is
:05:11. > :05:14.a majority, I do not know what the number will be. If you did it
:05:15. > :05:20.tomorrow and there was no other effect, probably two thirds. Really,
:05:21. > :05:24.is that including the payroll vote? Yes. So two thirds of the
:05:25. > :05:30.Conservative Parliamentary party will vote to leave? Yes, if you did
:05:31. > :05:35.it tomorrow. But you have to be in mind the dynamics. You, like me,
:05:36. > :05:39.have lived through a lot of prime ministers and ministers returning
:05:40. > :05:43.from Europe and declaring victory. They arrive on Monday at 330 and
:05:44. > :05:48.declare their victory. We have no other information. None of it is
:05:49. > :05:53.published, the decisions had been taken in private with no
:05:54. > :05:59.journalists. There will be a sort of wave out of that. Out of that, two
:06:00. > :06:05.thirds will evaporate. Come the day, even 50% of the Conservative Party?
:06:06. > :06:10.I should think so. How many Cabinet ministers will exercise their right
:06:11. > :06:16.to campaign to leave? Not more than half a dozen, 56 maybe. I cannot
:06:17. > :06:22.think of more. Iain Duncan Smith? Iain Duncan Smith, maybe Theresa
:06:23. > :06:29.May, maybe sad you jab it, certainly Chris Grayling. Maybe Iain Duncan
:06:30. > :06:31.Smith. What is your reaction this morning to the story that senior
:06:32. > :06:37.officials in Downing Street are vetting or altering speeches by
:06:38. > :06:44.ministers to tone down Eurosceptic comments? My speeches go back 20
:06:45. > :06:52.years or so. Is this the start of the government machine getting
:06:53. > :06:55.moving? Yes. There are three things David Cameron said that were
:06:56. > :06:58.important. David Cameron made it plain that the government machine
:06:59. > :07:05.will go crazy on one side of this side image. It has started. Nothing
:07:06. > :07:10.unusual in that, by the way. David Cameron might get some sort of deal
:07:11. > :07:14.which curtails in work benefits for migrants. Is that a game changer,
:07:15. > :07:20.does it change it his way? He said, or something equally powerful, not
:07:21. > :07:24.important at all. Why do people come from Romania to hear? They come
:07:25. > :07:32.because the minimum wage is twice as big as the average wage in Rumania.
:07:33. > :07:35.And about to get bigger. In 2020, according to the Treasury strategy,
:07:36. > :07:42.tax credits will not matter, which is why they wanted to abolish them.
:07:43. > :07:48.In 2020, this whole strategy will be relevant. What is your best guess
:07:49. > :07:53.for the date of the referendum? Probably September this year. Not in
:07:54. > :07:57.summer? It might, but they have limitations built into the law. If
:07:58. > :08:01.they get it through in February, they might get the summer, but I do
:08:02. > :08:05.not think they will get it through in February. Bear in mind they have
:08:06. > :08:10.four basic claims, only one of which has really been talked about at the
:08:11. > :08:15.moment. Some of the others, the parliamentary proposals, the defence
:08:16. > :08:19.of the city, the euro, all of this, it will either be just words and not
:08:20. > :08:26.matter, which is weird lips at the moment, or it will be serious. The
:08:27. > :08:29.city basically needs a veto in European legislation relating to
:08:30. > :08:33.financial services. If it does not get that, it is meaningless. If
:08:34. > :08:37.David Cameron loses the referendum, does he have to resign as Prime
:08:38. > :08:44.Minister? That is the least important question. Is there an
:08:45. > :08:49.answer? I do not know. Should they? Not necessarily, it depends on how
:08:50. > :08:55.it goes with the terms. He said this morning there is no plans for a
:08:56. > :08:59.British exit. This is disgraceful. You have two moderately likely
:09:00. > :09:05.outcomes. We do not know which will be. There were no plans for Scottish
:09:06. > :09:09.independence. I suspect there were. There are no plans for the British
:09:10. > :09:13.exit and that is serious because it is a complicated operation to carry
:09:14. > :09:17.out if it happens. We will be returning to you, David Davis, thank
:09:18. > :09:20.you. Nick, there is no doubt that the
:09:21. > :09:25.Prime Minister is gearing up to campaign disdain with he brings back
:09:26. > :09:29.from Brussels. Absolutely, he is determined to keep Britain in the
:09:30. > :09:32.European Union. His official languages that he wants to
:09:33. > :09:37.renegotiate better terms and if he gets the right deal, he will keep
:09:38. > :09:41.them, but the mask slip today when Andrew Marr asked about British
:09:42. > :09:45.exit, the preparations for that, and he said it was not the right answer.
:09:46. > :09:50.Today, the other interesting things he did was a reprieve is of the
:09:51. > :09:56.Scottish referendum. He was saying that if you are -- that if you lost
:09:57. > :10:00.the referendum he would not resign. He wants to get that message out
:10:01. > :10:05.there because he wants to kill the idea of a link between his future
:10:06. > :10:09.and the referendum results. With the Scottish referendum, in private they
:10:10. > :10:12.prepared a resignation later. He made clear to Andrew Marr this
:10:13. > :10:17.morning that the government machine is not going to be neutral, it will
:10:18. > :10:20.back David Cameron. That is one of the reasons I would disagree with
:10:21. > :10:26.David Davis and say that the out campaign needs a big figurehead. You
:10:27. > :10:30.will have the full weight of an institutional machine behind the yes
:10:31. > :10:37.vote. On the out said, we have Nigel Farage. He appeals to 3 million
:10:38. > :10:41.voters, but not a majority. There is a responsible case to be made. That
:10:42. > :10:47.is why someone like Boris Johnson will be pressured enormously to say
:10:48. > :10:51.which side he will jump for. If David Davis is right, and at least
:10:52. > :10:56.50% of the parliamentary party, including the payroll vote is going
:10:57. > :11:00.to vote to leave, many will campaign to leave, that is a massive problem
:11:01. > :11:04.for the Conservatives and David Cameron? The problem is especially
:11:05. > :11:10.acute if the final result is so narrow that the result can be
:11:11. > :11:14.plausibly attributed to a credible, sitting Conservative Prime Minister
:11:15. > :11:20.having campaigned to remain in. If Eurosceptic backbenchers are Cabinet
:11:21. > :11:25.minister can say, had David Cameron campaigned the other way, or less
:11:26. > :11:29.lasciviously, we might have got our lifetime's ambition to leave the
:11:30. > :11:34.European Union. If it is close, it will linger in the Tory party. It
:11:35. > :11:39.introduces poison. My guess is that the party will fall apart. I am much
:11:40. > :11:44.less certain than I was 18 months ago. They know they can govern for
:11:45. > :11:49.another nine years. Have we change the constitution? I think the
:11:50. > :11:53.presence of Germany Corbyn effectively guarantees the next
:11:54. > :11:57.election. -- the presence of Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you.
:11:58. > :11:59.So Jeremy Corbyn sacked two Shadow ministers and three resigned.
:12:00. > :12:02.Now another Labour MP says she can no longer work with the party's
:12:03. > :12:04.leadership in the wake of last week's reshuffle.
:12:05. > :12:07.Alison McGovern has told this programme that she is resigning
:12:08. > :12:12.from a policy review on child poverty after the pressure group
:12:13. > :12:14.she chairs was described as "right wing" and "Conservative"
:12:15. > :12:18.Labour say she's resigning from something that doesn't exist.
:12:19. > :12:21.As Labour's internal divisions become more acrimonious,
:12:22. > :12:24.can the different wings of the party continue to work with each other?
:12:25. > :12:38.A new year, a new start, but still the fireworks.
:12:39. > :12:43.But let's be honest, we have sort of got used to them.
:12:44. > :12:48.There was that vote on Syria which saw 67 Labour MPs disagree
:12:49. > :12:50.with their leader and vote with the government,
:12:51. > :12:56.not least because of that speech from Hilary Benn.
:12:57. > :13:00.Can I have a Green Clean Machine, please, with Siberian ginseng
:13:01. > :13:05.Jeremy Corbyn's new year resolution, we were led to believe,
:13:06. > :13:07.was to detoxify his party, starting with a reshuffle.
:13:08. > :13:09.Things had started appearing in some of the newspapers.
:13:10. > :13:11.There was talk of revenge, a dish best served cold.
:13:12. > :13:15.The leadership team denied any such briefing.
:13:16. > :13:22.But nothing actually happened until Tuesday when Michael Dugher,
:13:23. > :13:24.the then Shadow Culture Secretary tweeted, just been
:13:25. > :13:32.The day rattled on but it was not until after midnight that
:13:33. > :13:35.Pat McFadden was fired from his role as a Shadow Europe Minister.
:13:36. > :13:37.Both were accused of disloyalty by the leadership.
:13:38. > :13:42.What then followed was a raft of resignations.
:13:43. > :13:45.The first was Jonathan Reynolds in the Shadow Transport team.
:13:46. > :13:47.Then the Shadow Foreign Office Minister, who picked our programme
:13:48. > :13:51.I have just written to Jeremy Corbyn to resign from the front bench.
:13:52. > :13:54.I think things that are being said, that are being briefed at,
:13:55. > :13:57.that I've seen being briefed at this morning, are simply not true.
:13:58. > :13:59.Undoubtedly they will do that about other individuals,
:14:00. > :14:01.undoubtedly they will do that about me.
:14:02. > :14:03.Less than an hour later, Shadow Defence Minister Kevan Jones
:14:04. > :14:10.Jeremy Corbyn's right-hand man, John McDonnell, also
:14:11. > :14:13.We have had a few junior members resign today
:14:14. > :14:17.and that is their right, but they do all come from a narrow
:14:18. > :14:19.right wing clique within the Labour Party, based around
:14:20. > :14:27.I do not think they have ever really accepted Jeremy's mandate.
:14:28. > :14:29.Progress is seen broadly as the Blairite wing of the party.
:14:30. > :14:32.By the time the Shadow Chancellor was making those comments,
:14:33. > :14:35.I am told he was late for a meeting with the group's
:14:36. > :14:40.Alison McGovern says he asked to take part in Labour's policy
:14:41. > :14:43.review on the subject, a role from which the Sunday Politics can
:14:44. > :14:47.reveal she now feels she has to resign.
:14:48. > :14:50.I am there waiting to meet him to talk about it and all
:14:51. > :14:53.the while he had gone to the television studio to call
:14:54. > :14:56.the organisation that I am the chair of of having a hard right
:14:57. > :15:01.We are all Labour members and we believe in having
:15:02. > :15:05.That is what we are, nothing more, nothing less,
:15:06. > :15:08.and I do not want to be on the television talking
:15:09. > :15:12.about this, but I feel like I have been backed into a corner and I have
:15:13. > :15:15.no other choice now but to stand up and say,
:15:16. > :15:18.this is who we are and we should get on with the business of getting
:15:19. > :15:23.The rumours have centred around one man, because of this.
:15:24. > :15:28.It is now time for us to do our bit in Syria.
:15:29. > :15:30.But Hilary Benn kept his job as Shadow Foreign Secretary.
:15:31. > :15:33.The BBC understands a number of Shadow Cabinet ministers had
:15:34. > :15:37.threatened to walk out with him if he had been sacked.
:15:38. > :15:41.Other new frontbenchers have defended their boss.
:15:42. > :15:44.What Jeremy Corbyn has tried to do is to be consensual, to negotiate,
:15:45. > :15:47.not to hurt people's feelings and get the right team,
:15:48. > :15:50.and who says it has to be done in three hours or three days?
:15:51. > :15:53.This has not exactly been a happy new year for Labour.
:15:54. > :15:56.One Shadow Cabinet minister told me the handling of this
:15:57. > :16:02.Another former minister said it smacked of a leader more focused
:16:03. > :16:04.on consolidating his power internally and he was not looking
:16:05. > :16:09.It has left a bad taste in the mouths of a number of them.
:16:10. > :16:14.Actually, can I have a coffee instead?
:16:15. > :16:18.We're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Education Secretary,
:16:19. > :16:29.Welcome back to the programme. Was Jeremy Corbyn right to sack Michael
:16:30. > :16:35.Dugher from the Shadow Cabinet? Good morning to you as well. It is good
:16:36. > :16:39.to be zero. It has been a very difficult week for the Labour Party.
:16:40. > :16:44.How can I top it off, by having a nice friendly chat with you about
:16:45. > :16:47.the Labour Party? Was he right to sack Michael Dugher? I do not think
:16:48. > :16:51.that after the difficult week we have had, I week which everybody
:16:52. > :16:56.will be down to experience and learn the lessons from, that it is helpful
:16:57. > :17:00.to the Labour Party, and indeed politics as a whole, for us to pick
:17:01. > :17:04.through the events of that week. There is the moment to draw a line
:17:05. > :17:08.under what has happened this week and to focus on the job we have got,
:17:09. > :17:14.to be an effective opposition, to take this Tory government to task
:17:15. > :17:17.and to start to begin that detailed work of setting out Labour's vision
:17:18. > :17:22.and policies for the future, so that by the time of the next election, we
:17:23. > :17:25.have a real alternative to put on the table. OK, but you would agree
:17:26. > :17:32.the events are worthy of analysis and this is our first new programme
:17:33. > :17:36.of the new Year. Jeremy Corbyn's team briefed that Michael Dugher was
:17:37. > :17:40.incompetent. Do you think he was incompetent? The events of this week
:17:41. > :17:43.have had plenty of analysis over many days. Not on this programme.
:17:44. > :17:49.You have on your programme during the week as well. Was he
:17:50. > :17:52.incompetent? Michael Dugher is a very good colleague and he will
:17:53. > :17:55.serve the Labour Party well know from the backbenches, as he has done
:17:56. > :18:02.over many years from the front benches. After all that has happened
:18:03. > :18:07.this week, we retain a Shadow Cabinet, a Labour top team, that is
:18:08. > :18:14.a broad team. The team that I joined on that basis, and that spirit of a
:18:15. > :18:17.broad church remains. That is something I am pleased about, and
:18:18. > :18:22.together, we can do the job we have been asked to do, because we are not
:18:23. > :18:26.just Labour's Shadow Cabinet, we are the official opposition. The clue is
:18:27. > :18:32.in the name. It is our job to expose what the government is doing. That
:18:33. > :18:36.is my intention and Jeremy Corbyn's intention. Other members of the
:18:37. > :18:38.Shadow Cabinet, Charlie Falconer, have said we need to draw line under
:18:39. > :18:48.last week's events. Would you have stayed in the Shadow
:18:49. > :18:54.Cabinet if Hilary Benn had been sacked? I am not going to get drawn
:18:55. > :18:58.into nit-picking... It is a huge question because we were told 11
:18:59. > :19:02.Shadow Cabinet ministers had threatened to resign. You had been
:19:03. > :19:09.named in the number of reports as one of them, were you? It is a here
:19:10. > :19:18.political situation. Hilary Benn remains... The Shadow Cabinet
:19:19. > :19:22.remained intact as a broad team. My views were not sought nor offered.
:19:23. > :19:26.This is a matter for Jeremy Corbyn, he is the leader of the Labour Party
:19:27. > :19:31.and it is up to him to make decisions about the team and the
:19:32. > :19:35.Shadow Cabinet. One of the new members of your team is Emily corn
:19:36. > :19:40.bread, Shadow Defence Secretary. She says she does not know why Jeremy
:19:41. > :19:46.Corbyn made her Shadow Defence Secretary. Do you? Again it is not
:19:47. > :19:50.my view. I look forward to working with Emily and the rest of the
:19:51. > :19:54.Shadow Cabinet to develop those policies going forward. One of them
:19:55. > :20:00.is about the defence of our country and we will have a robust process,
:20:01. > :20:03.and very detailed process, where we put forward the argument and look at
:20:04. > :20:10.the evidence and the research and we will build a really good policy. Let
:20:11. > :20:15.me ask you about an issue on this. A lot of the reason people see why she
:20:16. > :20:20.has been appointed is quite clear. Your leader is against Trident and
:20:21. > :20:24.always has been, he put Ken Livingstone in charge of the Trident
:20:25. > :20:29.review, he now has a Shadow Defence Secretary opposed to Trident. It is
:20:30. > :20:35.obvious that he is moving to end Labour's support for the nuclear
:20:36. > :20:40.deterrent, is it not? You have got a very detailed policy process that we
:20:41. > :20:44.will go through. It is not just a matter for the Shadow Cabinet, it is
:20:45. > :20:50.a matter for the national policy forum. I am not a unilateralist, I
:20:51. > :20:57.think we should maintain an independent, ongoing nuclear
:20:58. > :21:01.deterrent. My question to you was... My question was is it not clear that
:21:02. > :21:07.Jeremy Corbyn wants to move your party to a unilateral nuclear
:21:08. > :21:10.disarmament position? That is his position, but let's see how this
:21:11. > :21:15.process goes forward. I have not had a discussion with him about Trident
:21:16. > :21:20.at all and we have not had a discussion in the Shadow Cabinet
:21:21. > :21:26.about this topic yet either. We have a clear policy making process. In my
:21:27. > :21:30.experience of these things, it never turns out to be as binary as
:21:31. > :21:35.everybody wants it to be. As you proceed and set out your argument
:21:36. > :21:39.and case and look at the evidence, as you commission research and try
:21:40. > :21:45.to build alliances, not just within the Shadow Cabinet, but within the
:21:46. > :21:48.trade union membership, you compromise and your position changes
:21:49. > :21:54.and you get a policy that everyone can get behind and in my experience
:21:55. > :21:59.that is what will happen. You are either for or against having nuclear
:22:00. > :22:03.arms and labour fought the 1983 election on a unilateral disarmament
:22:04. > :22:07.tickets and lost by a landslide. You have said you are in favour of
:22:08. > :22:12.Trident. Would you resign from the Shadow Cabinet if labour comes out
:22:13. > :22:20.for nuclear disarmament? I know you want this to be an easy decision. I
:22:21. > :22:28.would just like an answer, Lucy Powell. Let's see where we get to.
:22:29. > :22:32.If the Labour position becomes Mr Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn's
:22:33. > :22:38.position, if that becomes your official policy, would you stay in
:22:39. > :22:43.the Cabinet? I would be very surprised after all the discussion
:22:44. > :22:46.we go through, after all aspects of the Labour Party, I would be very
:22:47. > :22:52.surprised if we got to a position where the Labour Party policy was
:22:53. > :22:56.one of unilateral disarmament. If it was, what would you do? We will see
:22:57. > :23:02.when we get there, but I really do not think we will get there. I am
:23:03. > :23:06.doing pretty badly this morning since every question has yet to
:23:07. > :23:12.elicit an answer. I am getting better at batting you off. You
:23:13. > :23:18.either on who is telling the viewers you are batting me off. I want to be
:23:19. > :23:23.on your programme topic about what is happening to junior doctors. Stop
:23:24. > :23:31.playing for time. Ask me about education and health. There are
:23:32. > :23:35.reports this morning and Mr McDonnell the Shadow Chancellor
:23:36. > :23:39.already referred to this, that Jeremy Corbyn's people want to
:23:40. > :23:45.policy-making from the Shadow Cabinet to the Labour National
:23:46. > :23:50.Executive Committee, not even the policy forum, just the executive
:23:51. > :23:55.committee. Do you support that move? I do not think that is going to
:23:56. > :24:00.happen. Any changes to Labour Party policy-making process, as those on
:24:01. > :24:04.the left will know better than anybody because they are the holders
:24:05. > :24:07.of the rule book, they will know that changes like that can only be
:24:08. > :24:13.made at conference by changing the rule book of the Labour Party. We
:24:14. > :24:20.have a very consensual policy-making process. Will the National Executive
:24:21. > :24:24.Committee be the policy forum? No, that is not their role. We have got
:24:25. > :24:28.a policy forum that could be improved in the way it engages with
:24:29. > :24:31.outside experts and party members and the public and it could be
:24:32. > :24:38.improved and Angela Eagle is looking that at that at the moment. But we
:24:39. > :24:43.have a very robust and complex system, but to get to the right
:24:44. > :24:49.policy-making process, and I know those of you in the media what it to
:24:50. > :24:52.be really simple, but it is not. Was it consensual for the Shadow
:24:53. > :24:59.Chancellor to describe the progress pressure group as having, quote, a
:25:00. > :25:04.right-wing, Conservative agenda? I do not think his comments were right
:25:05. > :25:10.or helpful. The best thing we can do now at the end of this week that we
:25:11. > :25:13.have had is to put an end to the escalation of factionalism and name
:25:14. > :25:18.calling and move on together to do the job that we need to do, which is
:25:19. > :25:21.to be an effective government. You said today there are big issues
:25:22. > :25:26.around Europe, junior doctors going on strike for the first time in 40
:25:27. > :25:30.years and we have got an important job to do that my constituents
:25:31. > :25:34.expect us to be doing. The last thing they want, and if there is
:25:35. > :25:38.anything that Jeremy's leadership when taught us is that this
:25:39. > :25:47.internal, talking about each other and the factions and so on, that is
:25:48. > :25:50.what the public hate. They want big vision and big ideas and policies
:25:51. > :25:55.for the future. When I ask you about policy ideas you will not give me an
:25:56. > :25:59.answer. There cannot be a bigger idea than whether or not the Labour
:26:00. > :26:05.Party is moving towards unilateral nuclear disarmament. We have just
:26:06. > :26:09.had a huge chat about that. Ask me about education and the floods, the
:26:10. > :26:14.economy that needs to change for working people. Ask me about the
:26:15. > :26:17.crisis that is hitting families at the same time David Cameron is
:26:18. > :26:21.making a speech about families and his government is doing the opposite
:26:22. > :26:27.of supporting families. Ask me some of those things. On families are you
:26:28. > :26:32.disappointed that Alison McGovern, the chair of progress, has resigned
:26:33. > :26:36.from the policy forum on child poverty? It is a shame because
:26:37. > :26:40.Alison has got a huge amount to offer. I have known her for many
:26:41. > :26:46.years before both of us were Labour MPs and she has been a long-standing
:26:47. > :26:48.campaigner on issues of child poverty and international
:26:49. > :26:52.development and how we can change the economy to make it work for
:26:53. > :26:56.working people. I hope Allison continues to make a contribution to
:26:57. > :27:01.the Labour Party and I am sure she will, she is an effective
:27:02. > :27:05.parliamentarian. I know from speaking to her that the last thing
:27:06. > :27:11.she wants is all this attention that she is getting today and she was to
:27:12. > :27:14.move on and draw a line and what has happened and realign our fire
:27:15. > :27:19.knocked on each other, but on the Tories and on this government that
:27:20. > :27:25.is doing a terrible job of running this country. Let me return to Emily
:27:26. > :27:30.Thornberry. A year ago she accepted ?14,500 donation from a law firm
:27:31. > :27:34.which has been condemned by an enquiry for making false allegations
:27:35. > :27:39.against British soldiers which were wholly without merit, in the words
:27:40. > :27:43.of the enquiry. Now she is Shadow Defence Secretary should she
:27:44. > :27:48.returned that money? I do not know anything about that, I do not know
:27:49. > :27:52.about the law firm or the nature of the sponsorship and how it was given
:27:53. > :27:56.or what she is doing, but I am sure she will come on this programme and
:27:57. > :28:00.you can interrogate her about these issues as you happen to me the past.
:28:01. > :28:04.Very well, let's hope I will do better next time. Goodbye.
:28:05. > :28:09.Now, after last-ditch talks broke up on Friday without agreement
:28:10. > :28:11.a strike by Junior doctors, the first in over 40 years,
:28:12. > :28:15.It will lead to the cancellation of thousands of appointments
:28:16. > :28:16.and operations and the Government argues
:28:17. > :28:20.So what's prompted this virtually unprecedented action by Doctors?
:28:21. > :28:27.The Health Secretary is the star of a high-stakes medical drama.
:28:28. > :28:31.The supporting cast, junior doctors, the thousands of staff who finished
:28:32. > :28:34.medical school but are not consultants yet.
:28:35. > :28:37.It is over big changes to their contracts, from rotas
:28:38. > :28:42.to pay, changes which are much needed, according to the government,
:28:43. > :28:52.and their supporters in places like right of centre think tanks.
:28:53. > :28:55.It has wanted to move towards more of the seven-day week,
:28:56. > :28:57.which actually, I think that ambition is shared
:28:58. > :29:00.across the medical workforce, including junior doctors,
:29:01. > :29:02.and it wants to change the so-called pay progression,
:29:03. > :29:05.the way that junior doctors get paid more just for being in office
:29:06. > :29:09.for longer, just as they are doing to the rest of the public sector,
:29:10. > :29:11.so I think they were absolutely right to start this
:29:12. > :29:16.But the doctors are furious about it.
:29:17. > :29:18.Both sides have been negotiating for months,
:29:19. > :29:21.most recently on Friday, when the gap between them
:29:22. > :29:29.Let's look at some of the concessions made
:29:30. > :29:34.They want Saturday to be considered a normal working day.
:29:35. > :29:37.Initially they said antisocial hours which come with extra pay would not
:29:38. > :29:43.But that has been rolled back to 7:00pm.
:29:44. > :29:45.The Department of Health has also promised to introduce so-called
:29:46. > :29:48.guardians who will monitor that doctors are not forced to work
:29:49. > :29:55.They will have the power to fine NHS trusts who break the rules,
:29:56. > :29:58.and the Government reckons most junior doctors will actually see
:29:59. > :30:04.Jeremy Hunt says that agreement has been reached in 15 out of 16 areas,
:30:05. > :30:07.but I've spoken to someone on the junior doctors' negotiating
:30:08. > :30:09.team who told me that the number of unresolved issues
:30:10. > :30:15.Nadia is an anaesthetist at a London Hospital.
:30:16. > :30:18.She will be a consultant soon and is worried for the junior
:30:19. > :30:21.doctors who will follow in her footsteps.
:30:22. > :30:23.They will probably find themselves working more weekends,
:30:24. > :30:30.They would find their shifts much more erratic, much less compatible
:30:31. > :30:34.with having a normal life, which would affect the working lives
:30:35. > :30:38.of thousands of junior doctors who have families and children
:30:39. > :30:42.in school, and they would struggle with that.
:30:43. > :30:45.It would also affect patients, having erratic working lives,
:30:46. > :30:48.erratic working hours, is proven not to be good
:30:49. > :30:51.for anyone's health, and there are lots of studies that
:30:52. > :30:57.If this contract goes through, there is a high likelihood
:30:58. > :31:00.that is going to be the situation and those people will be in charge
:31:01. > :31:05.More than 70 junior doctors from hospitals along
:31:06. > :31:09.It is a repeat of 1975, the last time that junior
:31:10. > :31:13.On Tuesday, this generation of medics will provide only
:31:14. > :31:18.Another two strikes are coming with plans for no junior doctors
:31:19. > :31:30.This issue has even made it into the charts when an NHS choir
:31:31. > :31:36.One of the campaigners behind it says the government is not
:31:37. > :31:42.seeing the real problems in the health service.
:31:43. > :31:45.There are not enough staff, this is not in one hospital,
:31:46. > :31:47.this is every hospital in the country, there are not enough
:31:48. > :31:50.staff to deal with the demands in A
:31:51. > :31:53.There are not enough GPs, and GPs are leaving our health
:31:54. > :31:56.service, A doctors are leaving the health service.
:31:57. > :32:00.These are the key issues which need to be addressed,
:32:01. > :32:02.and they need to be addressed now, not after this contract negotiation
:32:03. > :32:06.or as part of a pay envelope, or any other speak the government
:32:07. > :32:18.Jeremy Hunt is convinced that a more seven-day NHS is the way
:32:19. > :32:22.But it looks like there could be plenty of cliffhangers
:32:23. > :32:26.Now, we asked for an interview with the doctors' union,
:32:27. > :32:28.the BMA, and the Department for Health but neither
:32:29. > :32:33.But we're joined now by the former Conservative MP and Health Secretary
:32:34. > :32:40.He now chairs the NHS Confederation which represents NHS Trusts.
:32:41. > :32:49.Welcome to the programme. Thank you. Our BMA militants spoiling for a
:32:50. > :32:56.fight, or has Jeremy Hunt bungled the negotiations and provoke
:32:57. > :33:01.hard-working doctors to stop work? The last thing patients want is a
:33:02. > :33:04.long running commentary about the behaviour of the negotiating
:33:05. > :33:11.parties. It is disappointing that we have got a strike action plan for
:33:12. > :33:14.this week, but what we need to see is the parties back in the
:33:15. > :33:19.negotiating room dealing with the detail that your report just
:33:20. > :33:26.highlighted. That can only be dealt with round the negotiating table.
:33:27. > :33:33.The overwhelming majority of doctors to back an unprecedented action of
:33:34. > :33:35.strikes, including a full strike in the third one, hardly suggests the
:33:36. > :33:42.negotiations have been handled with aplomb. What has been going on
:33:43. > :33:46.within the negotiating room is addressing the detail. Any pay
:33:47. > :33:51.negotiation, as you very well know, covers a mass of complex detail.
:33:52. > :33:55.There is a commitment from the BMA and the employers and the government
:33:56. > :34:01.to deliver better performance over the weekend and we have seen. We
:34:02. > :34:05.have seen in our hospitals that there is an issue around excess
:34:06. > :34:09.mortality. The government is right to address that issue. This is part
:34:10. > :34:14.of the response to that issue and that is a commitment that is shared
:34:15. > :34:20.by all the negotiators. It cannot be that accepted as they are going on
:34:21. > :34:23.strike. The government claims there are 11,000 unnecessary weekend
:34:24. > :34:30.deaths because of book cover. That is just a propaganda figure. It is
:34:31. > :34:35.right that the excess mortality is not just around we can cover, that
:34:36. > :34:42.is true. That figure is a propaganda figure. There is an analysis that
:34:43. > :34:46.shows there is excess mortality in British hospitals at weekends. That
:34:47. > :34:50.is an issue that the BMA, the doctors, the clinical leaders of the
:34:51. > :34:55.health service and the management leaders and the government from a
:34:56. > :34:59.policy point of view all understand needs to be reassessed. Except the
:35:00. > :35:03.report comes up with the 11000 and you said it is not possible to
:35:04. > :35:08.determine the extent to which these excess deaths may be preventable and
:35:09. > :35:13.it would be misleading to assume they were. It is a figure the
:35:14. > :35:18.Secretary of State uses all the time. Rash and misleading. I am not
:35:19. > :35:22.using it, but I say there is a need to look seriously on behalf of
:35:23. > :35:29.patients if there is evidence of excess mortality at the weekend. We
:35:30. > :35:34.know there is excess mortality. But that is not the right figure. Should
:35:35. > :35:39.we simply sit back and do nothing? If the figure is not right perhaps
:35:40. > :35:43.the Secretary of State should not be using it. Is it not wholly
:35:44. > :35:48.unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS
:35:49. > :35:53.without an increase in overall NHS resources? That is what the
:35:54. > :35:59.government announced in the comprehensive spending review before
:36:00. > :36:03.Christmas. What is unrealistic... That is simply to keep the NHS
:36:04. > :36:08.ticking over, it is not to pay for seven days a week cover. It is
:36:09. > :36:13.unrealistic to imagine we can deliver the kind of health and care
:36:14. > :36:16.services we want in our country without addressing some of the
:36:17. > :36:21.fundamental issues around budgets, you are right about that, but also
:36:22. > :36:25.about joining up the different elements of the health and social
:36:26. > :36:29.care system. We talk about the NHS budget and we come into the studio
:36:30. > :36:34.on a separate we can to talk as though it is a completely different
:36:35. > :36:38.subject about the funding of social care and residential care. What we
:36:39. > :36:44.need to be more adult about is looking at this as a single system,
:36:45. > :36:47.which is why I and the NHS Confederation have called for a
:36:48. > :36:53.review of the funding and structure of health and care services.
:36:54. > :36:58.The government is trying to implement seven-day week cover on
:36:59. > :37:03.health spending that is essentially unchanged in real terms, not
:37:04. > :37:08.financing that. Look at what our health spending is, as a share of
:37:09. > :37:14.GDP, look among the wealthier countries of Europe, down there, we
:37:15. > :37:20.spend 8.5% of our GDP on health, and that includes private health. These
:37:21. > :37:24.other countries, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, France, are
:37:25. > :37:35.closer to 11%. The event that we already spend less, how can we hope
:37:36. > :37:39.to have a seven day a week NHS on a .5% GDP. Most of the people who work
:37:40. > :37:44.in the health service now we already have a seven day a week health
:37:45. > :37:48.service. This is about Phil cover. What do you say about this? What I
:37:49. > :37:53.say about the funding of the health service is that this is precisely
:37:54. > :37:57.one of the issues that needs to be addressed. I think it needs to be
:37:58. > :38:01.addressed on a cross-party basis. That is one of the things I learned
:38:02. > :38:05.this chair of the cross-party health committee in the last parliament.
:38:06. > :38:11.Can we afford things like seven day a week, Phil cover of which is what
:38:12. > :38:16.is being proposed with that level of health spending? Only Ireland
:38:17. > :38:20.devotes less spending than we do. I accept there is an issue around
:38:21. > :38:26.excess mortality in NHS hospitals that we can. I do not accept that we
:38:27. > :38:30.do not have a seven day a week health service. Do you accept that
:38:31. > :38:35.we need to get closer to France and Germany than we are at the moment on
:38:36. > :38:39.spending? I do agree that not just in this country but across the
:38:40. > :38:43.world, all over a very long period, as societies get richer, they spend
:38:44. > :38:48.more of their income on health and your services, but we have to move
:38:49. > :38:53.away from thinking the health service is isolated, it is part of
:38:54. > :39:01.the key system, and we need to look at that on a holistic bases across
:39:02. > :39:04.health and tear. That is in the medium and long-term. You're doing
:39:05. > :39:06.your commission, I hope you will keep us appraised of that as you go
:39:07. > :39:19.on. Hello and welcome to
:39:20. > :39:22.the Sunday Politics Wales. In a bumper year in Welsh politics,
:39:23. > :39:25.which political party After a difficult week
:39:26. > :39:30.for the Labour Party we ask, And last month's floods devastated
:39:31. > :39:35.homes in North Wales. How can we avoid similar
:39:36. > :39:38.scenes in future? In less than four months' time,
:39:39. > :39:42.we'll be going to the polls All the parties will be setting
:39:43. > :39:48.out their stalls in the weeks ahead, Our political editor Nick Servini
:39:49. > :39:52.now on what promises to be OK, it is January, and everyone
:39:53. > :39:59.is off the booze so the political chit chat in and around the Senedd
:40:00. > :40:02.is not happening in pubs, The intriguing question,
:40:03. > :40:07.what will be the political make-up Here is a reminder as
:40:08. > :40:14.to how things stand. Labour are the biggest party
:40:15. > :40:17.with exactly half the number Next, the main opposition group
:40:18. > :40:22.are the Conservatives with 14. Then there is Plaid
:40:23. > :40:25.Cymru with 11 seats. And last but not least,
:40:26. > :40:30.the Lib Dems with five. Roger Scully from Cardiff University
:40:31. > :40:34.puts detailed research At the moment, they suggest
:40:35. > :40:42.that we are on course, that the Labour Party is still to be
:40:43. > :40:47.the largest party in the Assembly, We see the Conservatives in a fairly
:40:48. > :40:53.consistent second place ahead The other major difference with 2011
:40:54. > :40:58.is support for Ukip, which is much higher
:40:59. > :41:01.than it was five years ago. At the moment it looks as if Ukip
:41:02. > :41:05.is going to be in the Assembly The Liberal Democrats,
:41:06. > :41:11.on the other hand, could be really struggling to maintain
:41:12. > :41:15.their position in the Assembly. The big question is whether Labour
:41:16. > :41:19.can hold onto power. I think the party is
:41:20. > :41:21.facing a triple whammy. Well-documented problems over
:41:22. > :41:26.the NHS, potential infighting Can Carwyn Jones insulate himself
:41:27. > :41:33.from these problems? And thirdly, the age-old challenge
:41:34. > :41:38.of trying to appear fresh If they have a really disastrous
:41:39. > :41:46.night, our electoral system means they might win a few
:41:47. > :41:49.more seats on the list, if they lose some first
:41:50. > :41:52.past the post seats, so they can't go down too low,
:41:53. > :41:56.given we have got quite a fixed We are looking at Labour having
:41:57. > :42:01.anything from 24 to 28. There is only a few scenarios
:42:02. > :42:05.in terms of what the government You have got a Labour government
:42:06. > :42:11.who can only really talk to Plaid Cymru at this point
:42:12. > :42:14.in time, because the Lib Dems, Then you have talks about a formal
:42:15. > :42:20.coalition, an informal agreement or something very formal,
:42:21. > :42:24.where Labour will have to agree a budget with Plaid
:42:25. > :42:27.Cymru every year. You could argue that
:42:28. > :42:32.the Conservatives have their best ever chance in Cardiff Bay
:42:33. > :42:35.after the General Election I would expect them to talk a lot
:42:36. > :42:41.about Jeremy Corbyn in the coming months and the state of health
:42:42. > :42:45.services, but knocking a government is one thing, persuading people that
:42:46. > :42:49.you are a government And that is the challenge
:42:50. > :42:54.for their leader, Andrew RT Davies, making people believe he could be
:42:55. > :42:58.the next First Minister. A number of these seats that Labour
:42:59. > :43:02.won in 2011 were won, and in some cases pretty
:43:03. > :43:05.convincingly, by the Conservatives The Vale of Glamorgan,
:43:06. > :43:11.held by Jane Hutt, a Labour Cabinet Minister,
:43:12. > :43:15.the Conservatives won that seatk pretty easily in
:43:16. > :43:18.the General Election. You would think the Conservatives
:43:19. > :43:23.must be fancying their chances of capturing that seat for the first
:43:24. > :43:26.time in the Assembly this year. And talking of party leaders,
:43:27. > :43:31.2016 is a massive year for Leanne Under her, the party
:43:32. > :43:36.has had a huge profile. But it has failed to make that
:43:37. > :43:40.count at the ballot box. That will need to change
:43:41. > :43:44.this time around. On the policy front,
:43:45. > :43:47.they claim to be the most ambitious party for Wales, but their challenge
:43:48. > :43:51.will be proving the workability or the credibility of
:43:52. > :43:54.many of their policies, particularly in areas
:43:55. > :44:18.like health, where it One leader game this commentary on
:44:19. > :44:22.by Kammy's aspirations. They don't have the same aspirations as SNP and
:44:23. > :44:27.not being seen as the credible challenger to Labour is problematic.
:44:28. > :44:31.Nevertheless, Plaid Cymru does do a lot better in Welsh elections. It
:44:32. > :44:37.will have its eye on key target seats like Llanelli and Carden Arben
:44:38. > :44:41.West -- Carmarthen, but to make any series challenge to Labour, it has
:44:42. > :44:45.to win seats in South Wales and at the moment, the polls and the mood
:44:46. > :44:50.and the zeitgeist does not suggest Plaid Cymru is in a position to do
:44:51. > :44:53.so. That is incredibly disappointing for Leanne Wood, especially after
:44:54. > :44:57.the public profile she has had over the last 12 months.
:44:58. > :45:01.It is difficult to see the Lib Dems in anything other than a fight
:45:02. > :45:03.for their political lives, as they have been in other parts
:45:04. > :45:08.As they knock on doors over the coming months,
:45:09. > :45:11.what they will be focusing on is the concessions they have won
:45:12. > :45:13.in striking deals with Labour in areas like the pupil deprivation
:45:14. > :45:25.After a dismal performance in the UK general election, this election is
:45:26. > :45:29.about maintaining a presence in the Assembly. It is as serious as that
:45:30. > :45:33.for the Lib Dems. It is hard to imagine they will be wiped out
:45:34. > :45:38.completely but they could be down to a group of one or two, which is
:45:39. > :45:41.hugely significant for Kirsty Williams and the Welsh Liberal
:45:42. > :45:46.Democrats. In terms of their campaigning, it is all about trying
:45:47. > :45:49.to hold a presence, making sure they have well oiled constituency
:45:50. > :45:50.machines which allow them to maintain a couple of Assembly
:45:51. > :45:53.Members. No cup, because they
:45:54. > :45:57.are the great unknown. They have never had a presence
:45:58. > :46:00.here and many are predicting they will return a handful
:46:01. > :46:03.of AMs for the first time. This is where the presence of the EU
:46:04. > :46:06.referendum comes into play. If it takes place in June,
:46:07. > :46:10.Ukip will have a huge profile as a result and that
:46:11. > :46:13.could really benefit them a shadow minister resigning
:46:14. > :46:25.live on TV. Cardiff South's Stephen Doughty left
:46:26. > :46:29.Labour's front bench over the sacking of his
:46:30. > :46:32.colleague Pat McFadden. He's one of three shadow
:46:33. > :46:35.ministers who quit during He made his announcement
:46:36. > :46:39.on our sister programme, Are you considering your
:46:40. > :46:43.position, Mr Doughty? I have just written to Jeremy Corbyn
:46:44. > :46:46.to resign from the front bench. I agreed to serve on Jeremy's front
:46:47. > :46:50.bench for a number of reasons. I had well-publicised differences
:46:51. > :46:53.with him on foreign policy and defence and national security,
:46:54. > :46:57.but I recognise the mandate Jeremy had been given by the party
:46:58. > :47:00.and I areas where I wholeheartedly On tax credits, climate change,
:47:01. > :47:06.many other issues, fighting the Trade Union Bill,
:47:07. > :47:09.I was proud to lead that work, but, fundamentally, I agree
:47:10. > :47:11.with everything Pat McFadden said about terrorism and
:47:12. > :47:14.national security. Joining me is the Shadow Wales
:47:15. > :47:28.Office Minister in the Lords, Just to start with Jeremy Corbyn's
:47:29. > :47:33.reshuffle, it is fair to say far from an ideal way of going about a
:47:34. > :47:40.Cabinet reshuffle, a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle. Fair to say? It was not
:47:41. > :47:44.tidy. I have seen better reshuffles in my time, but Jeremy has got a
:47:45. > :47:51.YouTube mandate and it is up to him who is in his Shadow Cabinet and who
:47:52. > :47:58.his ministers are. But wasn't all the stories in the media, it took so
:47:59. > :48:02.long, it had the air of a shambles around it. I think this is something
:48:03. > :48:08.that needs to be tightened around the leadership. People have got a
:48:09. > :48:11.lot of respect for Jeremy Corbyn. People are little bit worried about
:48:12. > :48:15.the people around him and probably that is where it got a little bit
:48:16. > :48:19.messy, the briefings and counter briefings, it is unnecessary. It
:48:20. > :48:23.needs to be tidied up and tightened and they learned that. And it does
:48:24. > :48:29.not reflect what they are saying they want to see, which is this new
:48:30. > :48:35.fairer, kinder, gentler politics. It seems to be more of the old Gordon
:48:36. > :48:39.Brown and Tony Blair. The real focus should be on opposing the Tory
:48:40. > :48:44.government. That is where our sole focus should be. We have had huge
:48:45. > :48:48.floats over the Christmas period is, we have seen the Tories tried to cut
:48:49. > :48:53.back on tax credits, we have seen them not really condemning people
:48:54. > :48:58.for killings in Saudi Arabia. There are things we need to do, we need to
:48:59. > :49:03.oppose, we have got the trade union Bill coming to the House of lords
:49:04. > :49:07.this week, they broke no opposition, this Tory government, and we need to
:49:08. > :49:10.make sure we are speaking for the general public, who are
:49:11. > :49:17.uncomfortable with the position at the moment of where the Tories are
:49:18. > :49:21.taking us. Should Pat McFadden, the former Shadow European minister,
:49:22. > :49:27.have been sacked for his comments? This morning on BBC, Lord Falk and,
:49:28. > :49:31.said he should not have been sacked. I work really closely with Pat
:49:32. > :49:36.McFadden in the Lords and he was an excellent minister. He is really
:49:37. > :49:44.able, but we are going into a referendum and it is up to the new
:49:45. > :49:47.leader to determine who is in those positions. You are being very
:49:48. > :49:53.diplomatic but should he have been sacked? No, I don't think he should
:49:54. > :49:57.have been sacked, but that is the mandate Jeremy Corbyn has been given
:49:58. > :50:00.and we have got to respect that. You were talking about the fact all this
:50:01. > :50:05.discussion around Jeremy Corbyn is distracting from the pop work of an
:50:06. > :50:09.opposition. Could it also be a distraction as we enter this period
:50:10. > :50:14.of an Assembly election campaign in May? Because of all the shouting in
:50:15. > :50:20.Westminster, that could detract from the message Labour is hoping to get
:50:21. > :50:23.through for the Assembly elections. I think people in Wales need to
:50:24. > :50:32.understand that this election in Wales is about the leadership of
:50:33. > :50:36.Carwyn Jones. The fact is, Labour has delivered every single manifesto
:50:37. > :50:41.promise it promised at the last election. 48% of the money spent in
:50:42. > :50:46.Wales is spent on health, we are prioritising that, we have got the
:50:47. > :50:50.best results in terms of education ever, so things are improving in
:50:51. > :50:54.Wales. Carwyn Jones is a great leader and I hope that is the basis
:50:55. > :51:01.on which people will be voting. So what would be your message for your
:51:02. > :51:05.Labour colleagues in Parliament in Westminster, who are seemingly
:51:06. > :51:09.continuing this sniping, these counter briefings, which will to
:51:10. > :51:15.track from the Labour Assembly campaign? My message would be,
:51:16. > :51:20.everybody calm down a bit, and let's focus our attention on the Tories,
:51:21. > :51:26.not internally. Is advice like that being heeded by Labour MPs and some
:51:27. > :51:30.peers as well, who just can't accept the fact, almost, that Jeremy Corbyn
:51:31. > :51:36.is the leader? He has had a massive mandate from the party membership,
:51:37. > :51:40.we have got to respect that. The key thing now is to understand that
:51:41. > :51:44.Labour is in power in Wales, we are able to affect change here and we
:51:45. > :51:48.have got to focus on that. Anything that is a distraction in Wales on
:51:49. > :51:54.that we should put to one side. We heard in the piece, Labour have been
:51:55. > :51:58.in power in Wales for the past 16 years. How difficult will it be to
:51:59. > :52:04.try and present yourself as a fresh, new, bright party, when you have
:52:05. > :52:08.been in power for so long? We will be unveiling our manifesto, which
:52:09. > :52:13.will have a whole raft of new policies. We have delivered on
:52:14. > :52:17.everything we promised, and that is an important benchmark for people to
:52:18. > :52:29.measure against, but we will have promises for what we are trying to
:52:30. > :52:34.do in the future. There will be a lot of new Assembly Members, I am
:52:35. > :52:37.hoping to be one of them, and that will give a fresh new look to the
:52:38. > :52:39.Assembly and the Labour Party. Thank you for joining us.
:52:40. > :52:41.After the wettest December on record, ministers have rejected
:52:42. > :52:43.suggestions Wales wasn't prepared for the bad weather.
:52:44. > :52:46.But a council leader has told this programme lessons must be learned
:52:47. > :52:49.to ensure the response to flooding is more effective in the future.
:52:50. > :52:53.Christmas was a wash-out for communities across Wales
:52:54. > :52:56.as flood water tore through towns and villages, bringing with it
:52:57. > :52:59.destruction and dejection over the festive period.
:53:00. > :53:05.For the fourth time in 20 years, Bernard Eccles and his wife have
:53:06. > :53:09.been left counting the cost after water got into their home
:53:10. > :53:15.The emotion, of course, is, you just can't put a price on that.
:53:16. > :53:19.You just give up after a while and you just laugh about it.
:53:20. > :53:25.The flood waters have now receded and the true extent
:53:26. > :53:30.and cost of the damage caused in villages and towns like Llanrwst
:53:31. > :53:35.At the same time, local residents say they are still
:53:36. > :53:41.There is a feeling here and across North Wales more
:53:42. > :53:44.could have been done to prevent these scenes and,
:53:45. > :53:47.with experts predicting further greater flooding in the future,
:53:48. > :53:50.there are now calls for lessons to be learned.
:53:51. > :53:53.Dyfed Edwards is the leader of Gwynedd Council, another
:53:54. > :53:57.area which bore the brunt of the bad weather.
:53:58. > :54:01.I think the danger of the Welsh Government and indeed
:54:02. > :54:05.all of us in government at whatever level is that we react
:54:06. > :54:09.There is a crisis, there is an emergency,
:54:10. > :54:15.What we are learning now is the weather is changing.
:54:16. > :54:18.That means, rather than reacting all the time,
:54:19. > :54:22.waiting for a crisis to happen, we must ensure that we take a step
:54:23. > :54:26.back and look, OK, do we have the infrastructure,
:54:27. > :54:30.are our defences correct, do we have the support in place
:54:31. > :54:37.to be able to be proactive and to also be able to help people
:54:38. > :54:44.But does the Natural Resources Minister agree
:54:45. > :54:46.with the suggestion Wales was underprepared
:54:47. > :54:52.I think the teams were working extremely hard
:54:53. > :54:56.from early Boxing Day and making sure the resilience of the country
:54:57. > :55:00.was at its best, but this is, we are talking about nature here,
:55:01. > :55:03.unprecedented rainfall in December and January,
:55:04. > :55:07.we are seen to be holding our head here and making sure
:55:08. > :55:11.that we can just keep defences operational.
:55:12. > :55:14.In the meantime, questions are being asked about the First Minister's
:55:15. > :55:18.promises during his recent visit here to make funds
:55:19. > :55:21.available immediately to help pay for repairs.
:55:22. > :55:27.A significant chunk of that is money the Welsh Government has
:55:28. > :55:31.received as a result of the UK Government's decision to spend more
:55:32. > :55:39.However, flood victims attending this drop-in advice session held
:55:40. > :55:43.by Natural Resources Wales are still waiting to find out how
:55:44. > :55:49.I would like to see where the money is being spent and see evidence
:55:50. > :55:52.it is going to be spent if it is needed in Llanrwst
:55:53. > :55:57.It is easy to say the money is available, but make sure
:55:58. > :56:01.Have you heard anything about where that money is and how
:56:02. > :56:09.If you pardon the pun, ?3 million is probably a drop
:56:10. > :56:14.We are going to have to look for other ways
:56:15. > :56:17.of protecting ourselves in the future because perhaps this
:56:18. > :56:20.is not going to be the biggest rain event we have had.
:56:21. > :56:24.The next ten years, it might be even more.
:56:25. > :56:26.Carl Sargeant told us the Welsh Government has
:56:27. > :56:30.invested in flood defences and letters have been sent to local
:56:31. > :56:33.authorities to let them know how they can apply for funding.
:56:34. > :56:37.The advice from insurers is that some of the money should be used
:56:38. > :56:41.to help homeowners make their properties more resilient.
:56:42. > :56:44.Anything which encourages people to build
:56:45. > :56:48.resilience measures into their homes has to be welcomed.
:56:49. > :56:52.And we would certainly encourage home owners to think of that.
:56:53. > :56:56.We have also been calling recently for greater
:56:57. > :57:01.information in the home buying process about flood risk.
:57:02. > :57:05.We think it is important that when people are
:57:06. > :57:08.buying a home, they get information about flood risk on their home
:57:09. > :57:14.But for the residents of Llanrwst and many
:57:15. > :57:18.others across Wales, it is too late, as another clear up continues
:57:19. > :57:25.following the wettest December on record.
:57:26. > :57:28.This week, AMs will return to Cardiff Bay and one of the first
:57:29. > :57:31.things they'll discuss will be the Wales Bill.
:57:32. > :57:34.Its aim is to offer new powers to Cardiff Bay, but it's been called
:57:35. > :57:38.an English veto, which will fan the flames of nationalism.
:57:39. > :57:43.Well, the Assembly's Deputy Presiding Officer, Conservative AM
:57:44. > :57:50.David Melding, joins me now to discuss.
:57:51. > :57:56.As well as being the deputy beside in office, you are also the chair of
:57:57. > :58:01.the Constitutional affairs committee and a report of yours last month
:58:02. > :58:05.looking at this Wales Bill was fairly damning. What are the main
:58:06. > :58:09.concerns you have as it presently stands? It was critical but
:58:10. > :58:13.constructive. We have offered a way out of the current breakdown in
:58:14. > :58:18.consensus and I think that is at the heart of its problem. We need a made
:58:19. > :58:22.in Wales solution to our constitutional questions and we need
:58:23. > :58:27.to take this opportunity. It has not been done fully in the past, we have
:58:28. > :58:30.had three bills that have tried to improve Welsh Governance Centre. On
:58:31. > :58:35.the fourth attempt, we need to get it right. Was there a feeling this
:58:36. > :58:40.was something you were given at the last minute, this is what we want,
:58:41. > :58:46.rather than being something more built on consensus between the two
:58:47. > :58:50.institutions? In fairness to the UK Government, they presented a draft
:58:51. > :58:53.Bill and they expected modifications, but what is appointed
:58:54. > :58:58.many people in Wales and the Assembly and Welsh government is the
:58:59. > :59:01.consensus that was around the St David's Day process seems to have
:59:02. > :59:07.been lost and that energy is not in the Bill. I think that accounts for
:59:08. > :59:12.a lot of its problems. Is there a lack of respect from the civil
:59:13. > :59:17.service? You say in the report that you asked the UK civil service for
:59:18. > :59:24.evidence, invited senior officials, they never got back to you. I think
:59:25. > :59:27.there has been a great problem about Whitehall's involvement in this
:59:28. > :59:32.whole process. I am not talking about the Wales Office, you would
:59:33. > :59:35.expect them to take the lead, but in asking each Whitehall department
:59:36. > :59:40.what they think should be reserved and not given to Wales in terms of
:59:41. > :59:45.its powers, was the wrong way to go about the question. They should have
:59:46. > :59:50.asked, what is the Welsh government -- UK need to operate, reserve those
:59:51. > :59:54.powers, and leave all else to the Assembly should it be appropriate.
:59:55. > :59:59.But how much change is needed? Looking at some of the things that
:00:00. > :00:03.is said, as it is currently drafted, it is not clear, it will add
:00:04. > :00:07.convexity and difficulty to the Assembly's ability to legislate. It
:00:08. > :00:12.seems to be a fairly fundamental change that is needed. There is a
:00:13. > :00:16.lot of agreement in parts of the Bill. The powers to the Assembly for
:00:17. > :00:20.its own elections and the recognition of the Assembly's
:00:21. > :00:26.purpose. That sort of spirit of co-operation needs to permeate the
:00:27. > :00:33.whole Bill. Basically we need very few reservations, we need to remove
:00:34. > :00:40.the clemency -- clumsy system... And get a clear statement on what Welsh
:00:41. > :00:44.law is in governance. A lot of time and critical effort seems to go on
:00:45. > :00:48.constitutional issues. What would you say to voters who say,
:00:49. > :00:54.concentrate on hospitals and schools and jobs and council services, other
:00:55. > :00:59.bread and butter issues, rather than this almost constant navel-gazing. I
:01:00. > :01:04.completely agree that public the economy, are the things that affect
:01:05. > :01:08.day-to-day life, but if you get your constitutional procedure is wrong,
:01:09. > :01:12.you don't end up with the suitable powers to fix these problems. That
:01:13. > :01:15.is why this behind-the-scenes work is important. But it is important
:01:16. > :01:20.because we need to get public service delivery in a much better
:01:21. > :01:23.state. What happens next time? There will be a debate in the Assembly on
:01:24. > :01:29.Wednesday next week where new ideas will be inserted into this draft.
:01:30. > :01:34.What will happen next? It will go to Whitehall, will be except what the
:01:35. > :01:38.Assembly suggests? There will be a report from the Welsh affairs Select
:01:39. > :01:45.Committee so this process of consultation goes on and the UK
:01:46. > :01:51.Government will probably then introduce an amended Bill into the
:01:52. > :01:55.legislate if process and I hope that will recognise our recommendations
:01:56. > :02:02.and act on them. I almost don't want to ask this but we have had so many,
:02:03. > :02:07."This will be the settlement for devolution", do you think this has
:02:08. > :02:09.the potential to do that? If the UK Government acted on our full
:02:10. > :02:10.recommendations, we would do what we and beget affordable to Londoners to
:02:11. > :02:23.buy. Andrew, back to you. Now, the Prime Minister
:02:24. > :02:29.is pledging to "tear down" 100 sink estates in England,
:02:30. > :02:32.replacing them with new homes Michael Heseltine is being brought
:02:33. > :02:37.in to oversee the initiative, but so far the Government's
:02:38. > :02:39.pledged to spend just ?140 I think sink housing estates,
:02:40. > :02:47.many built after the war, where people can feel
:02:48. > :02:50.trapped in poverty, unable to get on and build a good
:02:51. > :02:53.life for themselves, I think it is time, with Government
:02:54. > :02:56.money but with massive private sector and perhaps
:02:57. > :02:59.pension sector help, demolish the worst of these
:03:00. > :03:02.and actually rebuild houses that people feel they can
:03:03. > :03:16.have a real future in. So, we have not got a budget for
:03:17. > :03:20.this scheme, we do not know how much it will cost, we do not know the 100
:03:21. > :03:25.sink estates that will be renovated, other than that it is a great idea.
:03:26. > :03:29.Politically it is a great idea because it signals in Westminster
:03:30. > :03:34.what we call a one nation approach to policy. There is not much behind
:03:35. > :03:39.it at all, but the symbolism is powerful. Iain Duncan Smith began
:03:40. > :03:51.his leadership with a visit to a housing estate. Tony Blair began his
:03:52. > :03:54.premiership with a visit to a housing estate in London. There is a
:03:55. > :03:56.rich history of this and David Cameron is right that post-war, poor
:03:57. > :03:59.people in this country were used as guinea pigs for brittle lists and
:04:00. > :04:02.modern architect. This is the way of taking the edge of that. If it is
:04:03. > :04:05.only symbolism, it does not help anybody. At the end of this worldly
:04:06. > :04:11.amount of social housing be higher or lower than it was before? When
:04:12. > :04:17.you sell off these properties, there is supposed to be a mechanism
:04:18. > :04:21.whereby people build more. Where in Kensington will you build more?
:04:22. > :04:28.Social housing rents in Islington are 20% of market rates. Affordable
:04:29. > :04:33.rates are 60% of astronomical and people cannot afford them. It is not
:04:34. > :04:36.affordable for the people in social housing. I noticed the Prime
:04:37. > :04:44.Minister mentioned building in the private sector and he mentioned
:04:45. > :04:47.pension funds. I have monitored the pension fund contribution to
:04:48. > :04:52.infrastructure and it is pretty close to zero. If these people in
:04:53. > :04:55.these estates are waiting on pension money, they will be living in their
:04:56. > :05:00.sink estates for a long time to come. He also mentioned in the
:05:01. > :05:06.report by an estate agent that says you have these high-rise rocks in
:05:07. > :05:10.so-called recreational areas in no-go zones and if you had lower
:05:11. > :05:16.blocks you could use that and have many more people. We know all that,
:05:17. > :05:20.but how will it happen? The image that came into my mind when I saw
:05:21. > :05:24.the article in the Sunday Times was the picture you carried on the front
:05:25. > :05:28.page of the Sunday Times which was Margaret Thatcher walking into that
:05:29. > :05:33.inner-city wilderness and saying, we have got to concentrate on the inner
:05:34. > :05:37.cities after she won her third election. But the problem is there
:05:38. > :05:42.has to be substance and there is a danger with Downing Street that they
:05:43. > :05:52.think Jeremy Corbyn is in their eyes so useless that they can do these
:05:53. > :05:54.hits like this, but you have to have substance. If you are talking about
:05:55. > :05:59.rebuilding Britain's council housing estates, you need more money. Let's
:06:00. > :06:04.monitored this closely. Let's find out what the 100 estates will be and
:06:05. > :06:07.let's get a regular update on how they will be improved and it would
:06:08. > :06:13.be nice to know where either people who are going to go to live in them
:06:14. > :06:17.at the moment? They had trouble getting the MPs who were living in
:06:18. > :06:20.Parliament and trying to get them out after three years. Let's keep an
:06:21. > :06:26.Now, if our political panel have made New Year's resolutions to spend
:06:27. > :06:29.less time in the office, they might have to break them
:06:30. > :06:32.because 2016 is going to keep them busy.
:06:33. > :06:34.The EU Referendum, which could happen as early as June,
:06:35. > :06:36.will dominate the political landscape.
:06:37. > :06:38.David Cameron continues his attempts at renegotiation apace,
:06:39. > :06:41.but it is unlikely to convince the ardent "leave" campaigners,
:06:42. > :06:53.The result of the elections on the first Thursday in May
:06:54. > :06:55.will dictate the tone of Jeremy Corbyn's first
:06:56. > :07:00.In Scotland, the party is facing the possibility of virtual wipe-out
:07:01. > :07:06.But there are also elections for the Welsh assembly -
:07:07. > :07:11.And in the local elections there are predictions Labour
:07:12. > :07:14.could lose up to 200 of the 1,200 seats they are defending.
:07:15. > :07:18.Northern Ireland will also be holding elections.
:07:19. > :07:21.London might offer Labour a glimmer of hope, with Sadiq Khan maintaining
:07:22. > :07:24.a paper-thin lead over his Conservative rival Zac Goldsmith.
:07:25. > :07:28.Away from the ballot box, a few long-awaited decisions may
:07:29. > :07:30.finally come to fruition, not least a ruling on the expansion
:07:31. > :07:36.Economic growth could be trimmed back in the face of a global
:07:37. > :07:39.slowdown, as speculation continues about when the Bank of England
:07:40. > :07:46.And come the summer, we should finally find out
:07:47. > :07:51.what the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war actually achieved.
:07:52. > :07:58.Helen, the Tory split over Europe, particularly if the referendum is
:07:59. > :08:03.this year, will be apparent for all to see. As David Davis was saying,
:08:04. > :08:07.it could be a serious split down the middle of the party. Is there a
:08:08. > :08:12.possibility that the party managers lose control of this split? This
:08:13. > :08:18.becomes a serious, historical split for the Tories? My feeling is it
:08:19. > :08:23.will be quite contained. They have power, they want to stay in power
:08:24. > :08:26.and they are seen as a credible party in government. It is not an
:08:27. > :08:32.existential issue in the that Trident is. Trident in labour is so
:08:33. > :08:37.forceful is that this is something that is attacking the heart of the
:08:38. > :08:41.Labour Party and it is rendering it unelectable. Is the country so
:08:42. > :08:46.excited about Europe? The turnout might be quite low? Is the Tory
:08:47. > :08:56.party turning up against Europe going to put a lot of them off? I
:08:57. > :09:06.would think not. I remember in 1840s the... You took it off twitter. It
:09:07. > :09:12.was the quill pen. The party was split them for a generation. Is this
:09:13. > :09:18.as potentially a serious? There were Eurosceptics who were saying this
:09:19. > :09:23.would be a great split. But they were not in power as a majority for
:09:24. > :09:27.about 30 or 35 years after that split. That is why what the Prime
:09:28. > :09:31.Minister announced last week when he said ministers will be able to
:09:32. > :09:35.campaign on either side was so vitally important in ensuring that
:09:36. > :09:40.the split that will come, and it will be a split, does not turn into
:09:41. > :09:45.a civil war. That announcement is really important for managing the
:09:46. > :09:49.tone and the aftermath. I think Downing Street are hoping it will
:09:50. > :09:56.not be a Corbin like split, but some are hoping it will be on the other
:09:57. > :10:04.side. My instinct is that telling the ministers to campaign as they
:10:05. > :10:08.see fit, I think you will avoid it being the worst split. You may be
:10:09. > :10:12.right, but sometimes the Tories when it comes to Europe just cannot help
:10:13. > :10:17.themselves as we saw with Maastricht. Let me come to Labour.
:10:18. > :10:23.It has been a pretty traumatic week for Labour. Where now? Where now is
:10:24. > :10:29.Labour moderates increasingly peeling off over the course of this
:10:30. > :10:33.year. From the Shadow Cabinet or the party? The Shadow Cabinet and the
:10:34. > :10:38.front bench, rather than the party, although moderates in the country
:10:39. > :10:42.might peel off as well. What I found bizarre about the reshuffle was not
:10:43. > :10:46.the fact that Pat McFadden was sacked, that Maria Eagle was
:10:47. > :10:50.demoted, the mystery to me is why do they want to be there in the first
:10:51. > :10:54.place? What do mainstream Labour people think they are achieving by
:10:55. > :10:59.actively serving in the front bench of a leader who they themselves
:11:00. > :11:03.believe is driving the party into the ground? Presumably there is some
:11:04. > :11:12.prestige in being in the Shadow Cabinet. Of any Shadow Cabinet, the
:11:13. > :11:17.Tory ones included. They think party unity is a prized above all else and
:11:18. > :11:22.they are actively aiding and abetting and will be tainted by the
:11:23. > :11:27.results in 2020 if it is as bad as people think it will be. If the
:11:28. > :11:34.centre-left of the party peels off from the Shadow Cabinet, that will
:11:35. > :11:37.make life a lot easier for Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald. He can
:11:38. > :11:43.reconfigure the Shadow Cabinet in his image. Yes and he has got a good
:11:44. > :11:50.year coming. Labour are likely to be the largest party and will end up in
:11:51. > :11:55.government and Sadiq Khan has a good chance of winning the Mayor
:11:56. > :11:58.elections and all of that will stop anyone on the Centre who wants to
:11:59. > :12:05.say, the electorate have spoken and this man can never get anywhere. I
:12:06. > :12:08.do not think it will happen. My sense is even if the election
:12:09. > :12:15.results are bad, it is not curtains for Jeremy Corbyn, but if they are
:12:16. > :12:19.as decent as Helen suggested, will he go into the Labour conference in
:12:20. > :12:20.Liverpool at the end of September looking to change the Trident
:12:21. > :12:34.policy? A totemic change of policy? That is why good is the story in the
:12:35. > :12:37.Independent On Sunday about strengthening the hand of the
:12:38. > :12:42.National executive committee of the Labour Party, over the cabinet, so
:12:43. > :12:45.they can change the policy by then. You're right, Steve Deke Canos
:12:46. > :12:54.looking stronger in London than Zac Goldsmith, Susie may well win. --
:12:55. > :13:00.Sadiq Khan is stronger. Labour is bound to do badly. Local elections
:13:01. > :13:06.do not determine leaders. Jeremy Corbyn may well have a narrative
:13:07. > :13:09.that says it is all OK. Yes or no, will Jeremy Corbyn be leader of the
:13:10. > :13:18.Labour Party at the end of this year? Yes, definitely, without
:13:19. > :13:23.question. If David Cameron loses the referendum, will he be Prime
:13:24. > :13:28.Minister by the end of the year? Yes. No. Yes.
:13:29. > :13:33.The Daily Politics will be back at lunchtime tomorrow and all next
:13:34. > :13:36.And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday.
:13:37. > :13:39.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.