:00:40. > :00:44.Was former London Mayor Ken Livingstone booted off
:00:45. > :00:51.Or, as Mr Livingstone claims, did he step down
:00:52. > :00:54.because he is at one on all defence matters with this lady,
:00:55. > :00:55.Labour's new Shadow Defence Secretary, Emily Thornberry.
:00:56. > :00:58.Like Mr Livingstone she's not a fan of Britain's
:00:59. > :01:04.David Cameron has a plan to deliver some "rabbits from the hat"
:01:05. > :01:12.Another campaign group has entered the fray on his side,
:01:13. > :01:17.As the battle hots up we'll be talking to a man who wants out,
:01:18. > :01:20.UKIP leader Nigel Farage, and a man who wants to stay in,
:01:21. > :01:24.Donald Trump and his former chum Alex Salmond have spent
:01:25. > :01:29.The wannabe American President thinks Mr Salmond's
:01:30. > :01:37.With hundreds of Welsh steel industry jobs under threat,
:01:38. > :01:40.Carwyn Jones says the UK government needs to be ready
:01:41. > :01:47.to step in to help. pledged to demolish sink estates.
:01:48. > :01:53.What will it mean to communities in the capital?
:01:54. > :01:56.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political
:01:57. > :01:59.I won't have a nasty word said against them.
:02:00. > :02:02.Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh who'll be tweeting
:02:03. > :02:13.So first today let's talk about Jeremy Corbyn,
:02:14. > :02:16.who gave a wide-ranging interview on the Marr show a little earlier.
:02:17. > :02:18.My question, with respect, was about sympathy action
:02:19. > :02:19.and whether you would remove that legislation.
:02:20. > :02:22.Sympathy action is legal in most other countries and I think it
:02:23. > :02:24.should also be legal here. But remember this...
:02:25. > :02:26.So you would repeal those Tory laws?
:02:27. > :02:28.Yes, of course. Nobody willingly goes on strike.
:02:29. > :02:30.They go on strike as an ultimate weapon.
:02:31. > :02:32.The number of strikes is actually very small.
:02:33. > :02:33.It's an ultimate weapon that is used.
:02:34. > :02:36.Anyone that is going on strike is making an enormous sacrifice.
:02:37. > :02:39.They don't get paid, they suffer a great deal as a result
:02:40. > :02:42.of it, so let's look at the causes of people being upset rather
:02:43. > :02:59.A policy packed interview with Andrew Marr on the Falklands,
:03:00. > :03:05.Islamic State, secondary striking, even on the idea maybe we could keep
:03:06. > :03:12.Trident but not any missile warheads on the missiles. I felt nostalgic. I
:03:13. > :03:17.was back to a teenager in the 1980s, I remember these arguments in the
:03:18. > :03:23.1980s and Michael foot put them in the manifesto for the 1983 election.
:03:24. > :03:32.He was robust on the Falkland Islands. He was. The point for
:03:33. > :03:37.Jeremy Corbyn is he has a mandate from the party to put forward these
:03:38. > :03:44.arguments. He had a 60% vote and it is clear what he thinks of nuclear
:03:45. > :03:48.weapons. He has been a member of CND since 1966. The challenge for Jeremy
:03:49. > :03:53.Corbyn is to put forward ideas in a way that appeals beyond new members
:03:54. > :03:59.of the Labour Party to the electorate as a whole who have
:04:00. > :04:02.concerns about security of the nation, for example, possibly having
:04:03. > :04:07.successor submarines of the Trident system without nuclear weapons. That
:04:08. > :04:13.is the Japanese system, they talk in Japan how they have what is known as
:04:14. > :04:16.the bomb in the basement. They are a non-declared nuclear state but could
:04:17. > :04:19.arm themselves with nuclear weapons within minutes if needed. That is
:04:20. > :04:23.what he is talking about. Sounds good in the leg party but he needs
:04:24. > :04:30.to sell it to the country as a whole. It is clear a lot of what
:04:31. > :04:34.Jeremy Corbyn says has the support of the grassroots, particularly the
:04:35. > :04:38.new ones who have joined the party. It is clear a lot of this does not
:04:39. > :04:42.have the support of the Parliamentary Labour Party. That is
:04:43. > :04:48.the constant problem yet to be squared. I cannot see a way it will
:04:49. > :04:54.be squared. I do not think many Labour MPs can either. His problem
:04:55. > :04:58.is admirable, it is he is determined not to remove himself from things
:04:59. > :05:04.said in the past. On the Falklands he is consistent with what he said
:05:05. > :05:09.in 2013, when it did not matter, and how he is now repeating those views.
:05:10. > :05:13.The problem is now Jeremy Corbyn matters and if you look at the
:05:14. > :05:18.Falklands, the last time there was a vote of those on the Falkland
:05:19. > :05:21.Islands, only three voted to change the system of administration, so he
:05:22. > :05:29.is out of step with people living there. He sets out his left-wing
:05:30. > :05:35.stall on these issues. Bit by bit, he is taking his time, doing it
:05:36. > :05:37.astutely. He is taking the lead party in his direction, part of the
:05:38. > :05:48.purpose I would suggest of the interview will stop no one could
:05:49. > :05:51.question that. If you go into a general election with a leader who
:05:52. > :05:58.says something like, let's have the return of secondary picketing, and
:05:59. > :06:02.that is not the worst idea in the manifesto, also talking about
:06:03. > :06:05.renewing the vanguard submarines without warheads and I think he
:06:06. > :06:08.floated the idea of reasonable accommodation with Argentina on the
:06:09. > :06:13.Falklands, he would go to the election knowing you have a white,
:06:14. > :06:20.working-class base, which is already flirting with Ukip. How low can
:06:21. > :06:24.Labour Singh? Technically it is impossible to get rid of him but
:06:25. > :06:28.maybe politics is like water and finds a way to go around obstacles.
:06:29. > :06:34.And if his ideas turn out to be popular? I think they will be
:06:35. > :06:39.popular with the membership at every general election since 1983 would
:06:40. > :06:43.suggest to us these ideas are outside the mainstream. Jeremy
:06:44. > :06:47.Corbyn says there is a new world out there, I tapped into that in the
:06:48. > :06:52.campaign, with thousands packing up meetings. We have the electoral test
:06:53. > :06:59.in May, let's see how the ideas go down outside the party. Should
:07:00. > :07:03.written keep its nuclear deterrent? -- Great Britain.
:07:04. > :07:04.Jeremy Corbyn doesn't think so and neither
:07:05. > :07:06.does his new Shadow Defence Secretary, Emily Thornberry,
:07:07. > :07:08.who we'll be talking to in just a minute.
:07:09. > :07:12.But first here's Adam on a multi-billion-pound question.
:07:13. > :07:17.The Imperial War Museum is showing the work of artist Peter Kennard,
:07:18. > :07:20.the creator of some of the starkest images of the campaign
:07:21. > :07:32.This was in 1980, this is when cruise missiles were coming
:07:33. > :07:35.to Britain and the idea was they were going to circulate
:07:36. > :07:38.It's coming back into fashion because some time this year
:07:39. > :07:42.the Government is expected to hold a Parliamentary vote
:07:43. > :07:45.on whether to build a new generation of submarines to carry
:07:46. > :07:53.The issue is dogging Labour, as Jeremy Corbyn made his first
:07:54. > :07:55.speech of the year at the Fabian's campaign group conference.
:07:56. > :07:57.I thank you very much for inviting me here today.
:07:58. > :08:04.Jeremy Corbyn's speech focused on energy, Europe, rail prices...
:08:05. > :08:06.no mention of Trident, which he has campaigned
:08:07. > :08:13.The issue is - not all of his MPs agree with him.
:08:14. > :08:15.My view at the moment is that the case in favour
:08:16. > :08:18.of retaining is stronger than the case against,
:08:19. > :08:22.but I think it's important we review this and look at all the options.
:08:23. > :08:24.I'm in favour of keeping our nuclear deterrent.
:08:25. > :08:26.I think it's important for keeping our country safe.
:08:27. > :08:29.It's Labour Party policy, I hope it will stay that way.
:08:30. > :08:31.Have you had an argument with Jeremy about it yet?
:08:32. > :08:34.Definitely arguing with Jeremy this week, the boss of the GMB union,
:08:35. > :08:38.who says building new subs will safeguard thousands of jobs
:08:39. > :08:42.in places like Barrow, where they're built.
:08:43. > :08:45.If anybody thinks that unions like the GMB are going to go quietly
:08:46. > :08:49.into the night while tens of thousands of our members' jobs
:08:50. > :08:51.are literally swaneed away by rhetoric, then they have
:08:52. > :09:00.Meet the woman who's got to reconcile the two tribes,
:09:01. > :09:02.the Shadow Defence Secretary, Emily Thornberry, a critic
:09:03. > :09:06.of Trident who's doing the party's defence review.
:09:07. > :09:11.But it's turning into a row about how Labour makes policy.
:09:12. > :09:14.On one side, the people who feel the decision should be made by
:09:15. > :09:21.We have a national policy forum, we have a process where the papers
:09:22. > :09:24.go to our conference and are voted on.
:09:25. > :09:29.They involve trade unionists, they involve affiliated
:09:30. > :09:36.John Landsman, who campaigns for a bigger role for party
:09:37. > :09:38.activists and founded the Corbynite group Momentum,
:09:39. > :09:45.I'm not convinced the Government has to have a vote at all,
:09:46. > :09:49.but if it decides to have a vote we obviously need to have taken some
:09:50. > :09:51.soundings among party members and affiliates about what they think
:09:52. > :09:55.So, Labour Party policy on Trident could change by the summer?
:09:56. > :09:59.We will have had some process to consider our policy
:10:00. > :10:03.before the summer, yes, obviously, we have to.
:10:04. > :10:07.So Labour Party policy, when it comes to a vote,
:10:08. > :10:12.by the summer could be voting against the renewal of Trident?
:10:13. > :10:17.Look, I know that you're trying to get me to say very briefly,
:10:18. > :10:21.you know, something very quick about how policy is made
:10:22. > :10:25.in our party, the trouble is it's quite a complex process.
:10:26. > :10:28.Policy is ultimately decided by party conference
:10:29. > :10:30.in Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party but if we have to take quicker
:10:31. > :10:41.decisions, we have to do it by other methods.
:10:42. > :10:44.That might drive some Labour people into meltdown.
:10:45. > :10:47.It could be war, not just over whether Labour supports the renewal
:10:48. > :10:54.of Trident, but also who gets to make the decision.
:10:55. > :10:57.And with me now, the Shadow Defence Secretary, Emily Thornberry.
:10:58. > :11:09.Welcome. Did you drop Ken Livingstone from the defence review?
:11:10. > :11:14.No, it was going to be my review and when I spoke to Jeremy about it I
:11:15. > :11:17.said it was an honour to take an extraordinary job, to be able to
:11:18. > :11:22.shadow a department where people are prepared to put their lives on the
:11:23. > :11:27.line. Was he part of the defence review already? I said I would lead
:11:28. > :11:33.the review and it will be my review, and it will feed into international
:11:34. > :11:42.policy commission, co-chaired by Ken Livingstone, which will feed into
:11:43. > :11:44.the national policy forum which will then feed into party conference. Mr
:11:45. > :11:47.Livingstone said on defence matters he had lunch with you and you agree
:11:48. > :11:52.on everything on the defence side and so voluntarily stepped aside, is
:11:53. > :11:57.that true? I am a big fan of Ken Livingstone, that is not a secret, I
:11:58. > :12:02.am also against Trident. I come in as a sceptic and also with the
:12:03. > :12:06.ambition to listen to what people say, to be not afraid to ask
:12:07. > :12:14.difficult questions and to come to a view on policy on the basis of
:12:15. > :12:18.evidence. Did he step aside because you broadly agreed on defence
:12:19. > :12:21.matters? Jeremy Corbyn put me in charge of the review and that is
:12:22. > :12:27.what happened. Did Mr Livingstone step aside as he said? He is chair
:12:28. > :12:31.of the commission I will be feeding my review into. I understand. Do you
:12:32. > :12:37.agree on everything when it comes to defence? I agree with a lot Ken
:12:38. > :12:42.Livingstone says but I do not agree we should pull out of Nato and I
:12:43. > :12:46.will not review this on the basis of us changing any international
:12:47. > :12:51.agreements or organisations we are signed up to. The review will take
:12:52. > :12:56.place within the context of our continued membership of Nato? That
:12:57. > :13:02.is right. On Trident? Ken Livingstone is against renewing
:13:03. > :13:06.Trident. That has been your position. I think the days of
:13:07. > :13:12.unilateral, multilateral, all of this sort of thing is from the
:13:13. > :13:15.1980s. We should look at what are the 21st-century threats to Britain
:13:16. > :13:19.and how should we best address them? It seems that is the best way to do
:13:20. > :13:25.it, look at the threats and what is the best way of addressing that.
:13:26. > :13:32.What I am more than anything is a moderniser. You voted against
:13:33. > :13:37.renewal of Trident in 2007. Do you know what, in the 80s, I was in
:13:38. > :13:42.favour of Trident because there were two macro sides, life was different,
:13:43. > :13:47.but life has moved on since 2007. Certainly since the 1980s, and I
:13:48. > :13:51.think the time has come for us to have a debate about what the
:13:52. > :13:57.21st-century threats are, which includes whether or not it is the
:13:58. > :14:01.appropriate response. What would change your mind? What could you be
:14:02. > :14:08.told about Trident that would make you think we should keep it? Good
:14:09. > :14:15.try. I have had this job a couple of days and want to go into it with an
:14:16. > :14:19.open mind and look at evidence. You are against Trident? I am in favour
:14:20. > :14:24.of making policy on the basis of evidence put before me and I have
:14:25. > :14:28.had a large number of invitations to talk to people and pick their
:14:29. > :14:35.brains. I want to be able to do that and bring the party with me. Are you
:14:36. > :14:42.against drone strikes? No, I think in the future the role of drones is
:14:43. > :14:50.likely to increase, under the sea and for air strikes. When you were
:14:51. > :14:53.shadow Attorney General, did you question the legality under
:14:54. > :14:57.international law? This is quite difficult, because the advice I gave
:14:58. > :15:06.to the leaders... You have got that wrong. I was asking a question.
:15:07. > :15:13.Have you questioned their legality or not? There is a difference
:15:14. > :15:17.between their use and bare existence so therefore... I'm so sorry but
:15:18. > :15:22.it's legally privileged and I cannot talk about advice I gave to the
:15:23. > :15:30.leader. All right but you can talk to the electorate. Would you support
:15:31. > :15:33.the use of drone strikes? I would support the use of whatever means
:15:34. > :15:39.are necessary to keep the British people safe. Including drone
:15:40. > :15:45.strikes? Yes, within the confines of the law. Do you have an end date
:15:46. > :15:51.when you think you have got to have the review done by? No, I don't want
:15:52. > :15:56.the strategic review to be anything like the Tories' which was very
:15:57. > :16:01.short. They opened a website and only allowed people to put 200 words
:16:02. > :16:09.in and in my view didn't look at it properly so it will take as long as
:16:10. > :16:12.it takes. I have a lot to look at. I understand, we have a lot of ground
:16:13. > :16:18.to cover and we don't have a lot of time this morning. In the meantime
:16:19. > :16:21.it's almost certain there will be a major vote on Trident, which begins
:16:22. > :16:27.the real spending on the renewal some time in the spring. What will
:16:28. > :16:32.happen to Labour? Will you be whipped to vote in favour of current
:16:33. > :16:41.party policy, which is pro-Trident? Will you be encouraging to -- people
:16:42. > :16:46.to vote against it? The first question is, are they going to have
:16:47. > :16:51.a vote, are they going to have a vote in the spring, and what will
:16:52. > :16:59.the vote be? Will we have the Treasury and the MoD agreeing? If
:17:00. > :17:04.there is a main gate proposal, comes forward to the Commons, how will you
:17:05. > :17:08.vote? The rumour is they are not going to have anything more than
:17:09. > :17:12.another vote in principle on whether or not we should renew Trident.
:17:13. > :17:17.Pro-Trident people should be angry about that because we had a vote
:17:18. > :17:22.about that in 2007, what have they been doing all this time? Labour
:17:23. > :17:26.policy is to have a continual artsy deterrent but to have a review. We
:17:27. > :17:37.are in the process of having a review, we need to look at when the
:17:38. > :17:40.vote is, what it is about, then I will have a discussion with Jeremy
:17:41. > :17:42.and the Chief Whip and did -- decision will be made. Jeremy has
:17:43. > :17:46.said he wants macro to accommodate differences in views and I have said
:17:47. > :17:52.my review has got to be done in an atmosphere of trust and respect. So
:17:53. > :17:56.it will be a free vote. What do you say to those who say when it comes
:17:57. > :18:02.to the Trident part of the defence review that it is a sham, that you
:18:03. > :18:07.have replaced Maria Eagle who was pro-Trident. Your leader is a
:18:08. > :18:11.lifelong unilateral disarmament. The party grass roots is increasingly
:18:12. > :18:17.hostile to Trident, so the chances of this recommending anything other
:18:18. > :18:21.than don't renew Trident is pretty impossible. I will begin this review
:18:22. > :18:28.by looking at the threat to Britain because my overriding responsibility
:18:29. > :18:34.is to make sure it is in line with what keeps Britain safe. We will
:18:35. > :18:38.take it as the evidence takes us. That is how we will approach it.
:18:39. > :18:42.Jeremy has already said, he said in the last few days that it may be
:18:43. > :18:47.this won't be a binary decision, things are not must rarely black and
:18:48. > :18:52.white any more, we are not going to the 1980s. What do you make of this
:18:53. > :18:57.idea that he floated on the Andrew Marr Show this morning that we could
:18:58. > :19:01.maybe renew Trident but not put warheads on the missiles? The
:19:02. > :19:08.Japanese option, that is certainly one thing that needs to be looked
:19:09. > :19:12.at. What would be the point? I'm not saying this is what we are going to
:19:13. > :19:16.do, but the way that it works is that the Japanese have got the
:19:17. > :19:25.capability to build a nuclear bomb if they need to, but you can then
:19:26. > :19:30.use them in various delivery forms. That's a possibility, it is an
:19:31. > :19:37.option. So you put the eventual warheads onto Trident submarines?
:19:38. > :19:42.Trident missiles? I appreciate that you want me to speculate and I
:19:43. > :19:50.understand that. Your leader spoke about it this morning. I have said
:19:51. > :19:54.there are of options. When you file a ballistic missile at a country,
:19:55. > :19:58.every early warning ballistic missile system will assume that is
:19:59. > :20:03.an attack because ballistic missile is only carry nuclear weapons so we
:20:04. > :20:11.will risk retaliation for something that is not using nuclear weapons,
:20:12. > :20:18.isn't that very dangerous? You are welcome to take part in my review. I
:20:19. > :20:24.am a kind of busy on the day job. Do you think the party membership
:20:25. > :20:27.should determine Trident policy, not just be consulting on it, which I
:20:28. > :20:32.know you'll want to do, but should they determined in the end such
:20:33. > :20:37.important issue? Party conference will decide what our policy is. I
:20:38. > :20:41.would like to have a review that will have party members feeding into
:20:42. > :20:46.it, feeding into their views in a way we have not had before and I
:20:47. > :20:50.will encourage that. You weren't in the end have a vote among party
:20:51. > :20:56.members to determine your policy? Our rules are that party conference
:20:57. > :21:05.decides our policy. Do you think you will have your ducks in a row by the
:21:06. > :21:11.time of this year's party conference? If I can help the
:21:12. > :21:15.national policy Forum by doing an interim report, I will do so. What
:21:16. > :21:18.do you say to the trade union leaders who say you will put
:21:19. > :21:24.thousands of jobs at risk if you don't renew Trident? I say I will
:21:25. > :21:30.listen to what they say and I will look at whether there are other
:21:31. > :21:35.alternatives. I understand, and I fully respect the concerns that have
:21:36. > :21:40.been raised so we need to look at whether there are solutions to that.
:21:41. > :21:45.You have taken substantial donations from a law firm that support clients
:21:46. > :21:51.that took the British Army to court on what turned out to be deliberate
:21:52. > :21:55.and miscalculated lies, holy and entirely without merit, where the
:21:56. > :22:06.accusations against the army. Should you return that? What happened was
:22:07. > :22:09.that Lee Day seconded people to my office because when your shadow
:22:10. > :22:20.Attorney General you don't have any resources at all. You didn't get
:22:21. > :22:23.?14,500 in donations? No, so I got very good bright lawyers and I have
:22:24. > :22:29.returned all of them and they were very good and they helped us be a
:22:30. > :22:34.good opposition. So there is no money to return? There is no money
:22:35. > :22:38.to return and it was a pleasure to have them in my office, they were
:22:39. > :22:42.very helpful to the Labour Party and interned to the country. We were
:22:43. > :22:49.summarising legislation, helping with clauses, giving advice to the
:22:50. > :23:00.leaders' office. Unfortunately the Government will now even cut the
:23:01. > :23:04.money. Will you come back when your review is complete? Any time. We
:23:05. > :23:06.will hold you to that. Now to the European Union
:23:07. > :23:09.and Britain's membership of it. George Osborne appeared
:23:10. > :23:10.quietly confident this week about the Government's chances
:23:11. > :23:13.of impressing voters with the deal it gets from Brussels,
:23:14. > :23:15.and even the European President, Jean-Claude Junker, appeared more
:23:16. > :23:17.upbeat about the prospects Not good news for
:23:18. > :23:20.those who want out? But they'll be buoyed by one poll
:23:21. > :23:24.this morning that puts the "out" This morning there's news of another
:23:25. > :23:28.group on the pro-EU campaign trail. The question may be fairly simple
:23:29. > :23:38.but there are rather a lot of different campaigns
:23:39. > :23:40.trying to bend our ears. On the side of those
:23:41. > :23:44.who want us out of the EU, there's the Vote Leave campaign
:23:45. > :23:49.headed by Dominic Cummings and Matthew Elliott,
:23:50. > :23:50.who ran the successful They're also linked
:23:51. > :23:54.to Business For Britain, which has the support of a number
:23:55. > :23:58.of leading business figures, and to the groups Labour Leave
:23:59. > :24:01.and Conservatives For Britain, Also campaigning for Brexit
:24:02. > :24:06.is Leave.EU, which has links to Ukip and is funded by the Ukip donor
:24:07. > :24:11.Arron Banks. They're vying with the Vote Leave
:24:12. > :24:13.campaign to be the officially And to top it all, there is now Go,
:24:14. > :24:27.a new grass-roots group made up of MPs including Kate Hoey
:24:28. > :24:30.and David Davis which is designed to coordinate campaigning
:24:31. > :24:31.on the ground. On the other side, the main group
:24:32. > :24:34.is the Britain Stronger In Europe, headed by the former Marks
:24:35. > :24:37.Spencer's boss Sir Stuart Rose. Then there's Business
:24:38. > :24:40.For New Europe, led by Roland Rudd, Labour Yes, led by Alan Johnson,
:24:41. > :24:43.and now there's a new group set up by the Tory MP Nick Herbert,
:24:44. > :24:45.called Conservatives Even though some of the members
:24:46. > :24:52.are Eurosceptics, they say they will support David Cameron's
:24:53. > :24:54.renegotiation and will vote to remain inside the EU
:24:55. > :24:58.if he's successful. Expect a few leaflets
:24:59. > :25:01.through your door in the next And with us now is the Ukip
:25:02. > :25:19.leader, Nigel Farage. With even staunch Eurosceptic MPs
:25:20. > :25:25.like Nick Herbert campaigning to stay in, don't you worry the tide of
:25:26. > :25:29.opinion is moving away from you and tour was David Cameron? I would
:25:30. > :25:38.never regard Nick Herbert as a staunch Eurosceptic. He campaigned
:25:39. > :25:49.to keep the pound, he was paid to do it. He has never once advocated
:25:50. > :25:53.Britain should leave the EU so he is doing a job bolstering the Prime
:25:54. > :25:58.Minister. There was lots of speculation, will Boris Johnson back
:25:59. > :26:06.the outcome pain? What do you think? I don't know. Not Michael Gove, we
:26:07. > :26:11.know now. I suspect lots of senior politicians will put their careers
:26:12. > :26:17.before their conscience and back the Prime Minister. I am beginning to
:26:18. > :26:23.see this referendum as the people versus the politicians, it might not
:26:24. > :26:27.matter. Except your own side continues to be riven by
:26:28. > :26:30.factionalism. We have vote to leave, Leave.EU, and they seem to be
:26:31. > :26:37.spending more time attacking each other than the common enemy. You
:26:38. > :26:41.have these groups vying to be the official bumbler group. I've been
:26:42. > :26:44.trying to support both of the organisations, though I have to say
:26:45. > :26:53.when I listen to Dominic Cummings on Friday... Who is on Vote Leave I
:26:54. > :26:57.believe. Yes, and suddenly they are talking about a two referendum
:26:58. > :27:06.strategy which I don't like the look of one little bit. Why not? The
:27:07. > :27:12.argue was, we can vote to come out and then Europe will panic and make
:27:13. > :27:16.us an offer which will be effectively associated membership
:27:17. > :27:21.and we could vote on that. We effectively have that now, we had
:27:22. > :27:23.that since the euro was created. Dan Harmon has criticised every
:27:24. > :27:33.government that has lost a referendum. After the interview I
:27:34. > :27:41.saw the other day I wasn't sure. There is now a third group called
:27:42. > :27:48.Go. It does lend itself to jokes about the Judaean people's struggle.
:27:49. > :27:53.The point about Go is that it is there to break the deadlock, and
:27:54. > :27:57.next Saturday there will be Conservatives, Labour, Ukip and DUP
:27:58. > :28:02.sharing a public platform. There's a big auditorium with 2000 people
:28:03. > :28:09.coming and we will start the ground campaign in earnest. Should Vote
:28:10. > :28:15.Leave and Leave.EU amalgamate? Of course. Leave.EU are brilliant at
:28:16. > :28:19.mass-marketing. Vote Leave are Westminster -based group of people
:28:20. > :28:23.with some fantastic links to the business community, some great
:28:24. > :28:27.academic back-up. They would be complimentary, not contradictory.
:28:28. > :28:32.Meanwhile, as you still struggle to get a united front, if I can put it
:28:33. > :28:40.like that, perhaps the United front of the Judaean people's struggle...
:28:41. > :28:48.I would suggest from the better together project, which proved so
:28:49. > :29:06.effective in the Scottish referendum, shouldn't you fear
:29:07. > :29:14.Project Fear? Even Project Fear has a problem because a Scottish
:29:15. > :29:19.minister said all of the big businesses would leave Britain, but
:29:20. > :29:25.we would maintain our manufacturing bases. Even though if we stay in
:29:26. > :29:28.there will be some uncertainty as the euro zone becomes more united
:29:29. > :29:34.and we are likely to be part of that, so you cannot be sure of the
:29:35. > :29:39.future, no one on your side can tell us if we come out what will our
:29:40. > :29:43.status beach? What will our relationship be? Because you have
:29:44. > :29:47.lots of differences. We have a whole range of options. There are
:29:48. > :29:51.countries all over the world with different relationships, the Swiss
:29:52. > :29:55.have bilateral relationships the Norwegians have a relationship with
:29:56. > :30:00.the economic area. We are the biggest trading partner the has in
:30:01. > :30:04.the world, trading at a vast trading deficit. We want a British deal
:30:05. > :30:09.based on trade, cooperation and nothing more.
:30:10. > :30:16.There is still the uncertainty as to whether you can deliver. Every
:30:17. > :30:21.German car manufacturer, every producer, will insist we do that
:30:22. > :30:28.deal as quickly as possible. You hold that but it is uncertain. Under
:30:29. > :30:34.the terms of the treaties, on day one nothing would change, we would
:30:35. > :30:38.have access to markets during the time we renegotiate the British
:30:39. > :30:44.deal. Do you feel the ground moving on to you as the forces of the
:30:45. > :30:48.British state, Alex Salmond felt the same with the Scottish referendum,
:30:49. > :30:53.it is a formidable force and you are up against it? In terms of our
:30:54. > :30:59.political class, yes, I think the chances of many people currently in
:31:00. > :31:03.senior positions in politics, perhaps they diminish, inevitably,
:31:04. > :31:07.but you cannot take away from ordinary folk scene such as Cologne
:31:08. > :31:12.and saying to themselves, in three years, all of these people will have
:31:13. > :31:16.EU passports and be able to come to Britain. This campaign will be the
:31:17. > :31:19.people against the politicians and the more the politicians clubbed
:31:20. > :31:25.together, perhaps more the people will choose to vote against them. In
:31:26. > :31:29.any possibility of a relationship with the EU out, will almost
:31:30. > :31:32.certainly involve continued free movement and these people may well
:31:33. > :31:36.still be able to come to this country under any deal you reach? We
:31:37. > :31:41.have free trade deals all over the world that don't involve the free
:31:42. > :31:49.movement of people, it is only in Europe we have the free -- pretence
:31:50. > :31:53.that we have to have free movement of people. I want to control our
:31:54. > :31:58.borders and have an Australian style points system where we can judge
:31:59. > :32:02.whether people will make a positive contribution to society and I cannot
:32:03. > :32:10.do that as a member of the EU. You have not had the best of times,
:32:11. > :32:17.since the election. It culminated in what you designated a car breakdown
:32:18. > :32:24.as an assassination attempt. Has that undermined, as the most famous
:32:25. > :32:27.person on the outcome paying, has it undermined your credibility? I do
:32:28. > :32:34.not think it does. To say we have had a tough time, it is interesting,
:32:35. > :32:42.Ukip has been written off by every commentator in Fleet Street but the
:32:43. > :32:47.latest poll had us at 17%. The most important issue, immigration, we are
:32:48. > :32:53.the most trusted party on 29% and we go into this year with the
:32:54. > :32:56.expectation of winning seats in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
:32:57. > :32:58.and playing a big role in this referendum.
:32:59. > :32:59.Let's talk now to former Conservative Chancellor,
:33:00. > :33:11.Are you in any doubt the Prime Minister is going to be the
:33:12. > :33:18.enthusiastic leader of the campaign to remain in the EU? I think you
:33:19. > :33:23.will, because all the news, although it is not really news, a lot of it
:33:24. > :33:26.is rumoured, is he will come back with a reasonable deal. He has
:33:27. > :33:30.already got the things he first talked about in the bag when he
:33:31. > :33:36.first announced he was going to have a referendum and seek reforms. He
:33:37. > :33:39.has added one or two more. Nobody knows the final deal but they are
:33:40. > :33:45.close to getting one and the debate is getting more serious and I think
:33:46. > :33:50.David will advocate staying in. He will put it, a reformed European
:33:51. > :33:56.union. Given this was the predictable outcome, is the
:33:57. > :34:04.referendum process, promoted by David Cameron, worth the candle? We
:34:05. > :34:09.shall see. You can see now, is it or not? Wait for the outcome, which
:34:10. > :34:15.will determine the effect of the referendum on British politics and
:34:16. > :34:21.the economy. All politicians of my generation did not think a
:34:22. > :34:26.referendum was a good way to run a modern, sophisticated country. You
:34:27. > :34:32.wish she had not done it? I do not think anybody thinks... I was in
:34:33. > :34:35.favour of calling a referendum. Margaret Thatcher denounced
:34:36. > :34:41.referendums in stronger terms than I have and they are a gamble and I do
:34:42. > :34:45.not think the Scottish one has resolved the Scottish independence
:34:46. > :34:49.issue. Let me come on to Scotland. It seems clear that the in campaign
:34:50. > :35:04.will draw heavily on the better together project. We have been
:35:05. > :35:08.briefed on fear of Russian aggression. Who will be happy if
:35:09. > :35:14.they leave? President Putin will be happy. It will put the positive case
:35:15. > :35:18.of Britain in Europe? I shall try to put the positive case, I hope Damian
:35:19. > :35:22.Greene will put the positive case. We are in the EU because we think it
:35:23. > :35:29.strengthens our voice in the modern world and it is good for the economy
:35:30. > :35:36.and we think that this is the right place, in what is a complicated
:35:37. > :35:42.world, with nations interdependent. We will be a modern and more modern
:35:43. > :35:48.and more successful if we are in. The campaign exaggerates things.
:35:49. > :35:53.Nigel Farage is a parody of a right-wing nationalists. People are
:35:54. > :35:57.inclined to say there will be calamity if we stay in or calamity
:35:58. > :36:02.if we leave. They will be huge uncertainty if we leave. I believe
:36:03. > :36:10.that my children and grandchildren will discover that we would be
:36:11. > :36:14.losing political influence. We know you want to stay in. If we vote to
:36:15. > :36:21.remain, should membership of the euro come back onto the agenda? I do
:36:22. > :36:25.not think it will in my lifetime. The British have decided not to join
:36:26. > :36:31.the euro. The euro has to be reformed. The eurozone still has not
:36:32. > :36:37.sorted out its crisis. Should it come back onto the British agenda? I
:36:38. > :36:40.am not going to forecast the future when we are fighting this
:36:41. > :36:48.referendum. I was asking for an opinion. I believe that if you have
:36:49. > :36:52.the single market, not a trade deal, a single market, usually you have a
:36:53. > :36:57.single means of exchange, but they made a mess of the euro and did not
:36:58. > :37:02.run it properly. I would not join at the moment. You don't rule it out?
:37:03. > :37:08.Maybe one day the next generation of politicians find we do want to have
:37:09. > :37:12.the same currency, but I cannot tell. You are pro-European, you know
:37:13. > :37:20.its failings. You can be critical of it. Do you worry, the future, even
:37:21. > :37:25.if we stay in, the future of the EU will be on what takes place inside
:37:26. > :37:28.the eurozone and we will be on the periphery, increasingly a country
:37:29. > :37:33.club member, does it worry you? It worried me when we started. With
:37:34. > :37:37.great respect you are talking about one of the most serious issues,
:37:38. > :37:43.there was an issue that needed to be addressed. We are almost there, what
:37:44. > :37:47.we did not want is the decision of the British and some others, who
:37:48. > :37:52.will not join in the foreseeable future, not to join the single
:37:53. > :37:56.currency, that it would make a second-class citizens and the
:37:57. > :38:00.eurozone group should not decide things that adversely affected us.
:38:01. > :38:04.We negotiated that before the referendum came up. I think George
:38:05. > :38:10.is almost there. My understanding is, but I am not directly involved.
:38:11. > :38:17.I think that is the most important point and it will not feature in
:38:18. > :38:25.this campaign. Deregulation, and other important things, reforms even
:38:26. > :38:28.a pro-European like me wanted. Thank you for your short interview and we
:38:29. > :38:31.will come back to you as the debate and referendum progresses.
:38:32. > :38:33.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:34. > :38:36.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:37. > :38:49.Hello, and welcome to the sunday politics wales.
:38:50. > :38:53.In a week where hundreds of jobs are expected to be lost
:38:54. > :38:55.from the Welsh steel industry, we'll be in Port Talbot asking
:38:56. > :39:03.The five main Welsh party leaders cross swords in their first debate
:39:04. > :39:10.Steel workers are bracing themselves for the news,
:39:11. > :39:13.which could come as early as tomorrow, that hundreds of them
:39:14. > :39:18.This programme has been told that the Tata plant in Port Talbot
:39:19. > :39:21.will be worse affected, but other plants could see losses too.
:39:22. > :39:26.So what's going wrong with steel, and what can be done to help?
:39:27. > :39:31.Cemlyn Davies now, on an industry central to the Welsh economy.
:39:32. > :39:42.It's been part of the Welsh industrial landscape for decades.
:39:43. > :39:50.In the 1960s the Port Talbot steel plant was the biggest in Europe,
:39:51. > :39:59.That was then, things are very different now.
:40:00. > :40:03.Last year about half of the world steel was made in China.
:40:04. > :40:07.But as the Chinese economy slows and demand falls,
:40:08. > :40:10.much of that steel has been expoted cheaply the EU,
:40:11. > :40:17.Thousands of steel jobs in Scotland and the North of England have
:40:18. > :40:21.already gone, now this programme has been told that hundreds of Welsh
:40:22. > :40:25.jobs could be axed as early as this week with most of those
:40:26. > :40:30.going in Port Talbot where Tata employs around 4000 people.
:40:31. > :40:33.Tata told us the company's workforce would be the first to hear any
:40:34. > :40:37.significant names, but already there are real concerns
:40:38. > :40:43.Communities always recover from this situation,
:40:44. > :40:48.It doesn't happen overnight and they will be hardships.
:40:49. > :40:53.We are working to achieve that doesn't happen.
:40:54. > :40:57.We need to keep the stability of the plant and continue
:40:58. > :41:03.From his office Professor David Blackerby can see
:41:04. > :41:08.He believes downgrading the plant would have serious implications
:41:09. > :41:15.Port Talbot is massively important to the British economy,
:41:16. > :41:18.probably in 2014 it accounted for one third of all steel
:41:19. > :41:25.So we've seen a number of job losses since then.
:41:26. > :41:28.If we want a manufacturing base and we want steel,
:41:29. > :41:31.Port Talbot is the jewel in the crown not just in Wales,
:41:32. > :41:38.We are watching the industry that we love, and that we have been
:41:39. > :41:42.so much a part of in terms of Welsh industrial history,
:41:43. > :41:48.To the point where it's so serious it could be going over cliff,
:41:49. > :41:55.I'm not entirely sure that Westminster see it in
:41:56. > :42:00.If it was a bank they'd be intervening.
:42:01. > :42:03.However, because it's not in the heart of London,
:42:04. > :42:06.it's not part of the city, they don't seem to take it
:42:07. > :42:12.Taking part of the steel industry into public ownership was an idea
:42:13. > :42:14.put forward by Rhun ap Iorwerth during Plaid Cymru's
:42:15. > :42:21.He wants a task force to look at every possible option.
:42:22. > :42:25.I have no doubt at all about the Welsh steel industry can
:42:26. > :42:27.flourish in years to come, but we have a situation right
:42:28. > :42:35.If this task force decided that there was merit in the Welsh
:42:36. > :42:39.government taking a stake in the Welsh steel industry,
:42:40. > :42:42.temporarily, I'm confident that we take a step back
:42:43. > :42:47.from that in years to come, but that would bring profit
:42:48. > :42:53.But the minister says that simply wouldn't be possible.
:42:54. > :42:57.People seem to think steel is like everything else.
:42:58. > :43:01.The commission watches what goes on across Europe
:43:02. > :43:03.because there are rules in place about state aid for steel.
:43:04. > :43:09.Matters about intervention, nationalisation, that's a matter
:43:10. > :43:16.In terms of what we can do in Wales we are limited.
:43:17. > :43:18.If you stick to any of the steel companies they will know
:43:19. > :43:20.about the close relationship they've got with us,
:43:21. > :43:24.and how we are trying to help in every way we've been able to.
:43:25. > :43:36.The UK Government say they have been proactive in helping the steel
:43:37. > :43:39.and she, they have cut energy costs and taken action on imports,
:43:40. > :43:40.procurements and EU admissions regulations.
:43:41. > :43:43.But it seems that simply hasn't been enough to protect Welsh steel
:43:44. > :43:47.workers whose future is now more uncertain than ever.
:43:48. > :43:50.Not surprisingly, steel was one of the themes which came up this
:43:51. > :43:53.morning when the 5 main party leaders in Wales got together
:43:54. > :43:57.for a BBC Wales radio debate ahead of the Assembly election.
:43:58. > :44:00.More of that debate in a moment, but this is what the First Minister
:44:01. > :44:16.If you look at what Italy has done they have taken the industry into
:44:17. > :44:21.public ownership. I hope we don't get to that position in the UK, but
:44:22. > :44:25.if we do, the UK Government must be ready to make sure that it supports
:44:26. > :44:27.the steel industry and wheels can get through this difficult patch.
:44:28. > :44:29.We heard in the debate about governments in Europe taking
:44:30. > :44:32.a stake in their steel industries, but is that the way forward,
:44:33. > :44:37.Joining me is the Labour MEP Derek Vaughan and Caroline Jones
:44:38. > :44:41.who's a member of UKIP's National Executive.
:44:42. > :44:53.Thank you for coming in. We heard Carwyn Jones saying that if it was
:44:54. > :44:56.needed, they need some sort of government aid and the Government
:44:57. > :45:00.should step in what is he talking about their?
:45:01. > :45:04.I think he's referring to nationalisation. The Italian
:45:05. > :45:09.government nationalised one of their plants. There is more that the UK
:45:10. > :45:13.Government could do short of mass motivation. They could provide
:45:14. > :45:19.emergency assistance, investment for environmental products, training,
:45:20. > :45:23.and all those things wouldn't affect state aid rules. The UK Government
:45:24. > :45:27.should be going ahead and doing those things.
:45:28. > :45:30.But it's worth bearing in mind that the Italian government has been
:45:31. > :45:35.investigated into the way it stepped in and stop its not so clear cut to
:45:36. > :45:40.save going to sell a on so there's no need to worry?
:45:41. > :45:46.The complaint against the Italian government came from the industry
:45:47. > :45:52.not the EU. They decided it was an emergency and the top action. In
:45:53. > :45:55.addition to re-nationalising the agency -- industry be putting
:45:56. > :46:04.millions of viewers to invest in the industry. In Germany they put in
:46:05. > :46:07.?380 million a year for investment. The UK Government could invest in
:46:08. > :46:10.the steel industry if they wanted, they've chosen not to.
:46:11. > :46:16.What do you make of all this Caroline Jones?
:46:17. > :46:20.There are strict rules prohibiting any government from intervening
:46:21. > :46:26.regarding state aid, or indeed providing any financial package
:46:27. > :46:32.underwriting a financial package why reconstruction takes place to
:46:33. > :46:38.salvage jobs. There are many jobs and many people really concerned at
:46:39. > :46:44.the moment. This is decimating the Welsh economy. We know that one
:46:45. > :46:50.tenth of the output of Wales comes from steel.
:46:51. > :47:01.Therefore, we are on our last plant with Mark steel works. We lost the
:47:02. > :47:07.others,... But what more can we do?
:47:08. > :47:17.Cheap Chinese steel, we need to put a block on it. Obviously, we need
:47:18. > :47:21.energy costs to be looked at. We need a level playing field with the
:47:22. > :47:25.rest of the world. We can't compete at the moment because of high energy
:47:26. > :47:30.costs and taxes. We need strongly to look at the
:47:31. > :47:42.coal, the hundred million tonnes of coal that infrastructure, the
:47:43. > :47:45.motorway, the ports. That would delete the transportation costs from
:47:46. > :47:53.halfway around the world. That point of coal, there's an awful
:47:54. > :47:56.lot of coal they are bad it's very difficult because of problems with
:47:57. > :48:01.plants directive so it can't be accessed. In a way the EU laws are
:48:02. > :48:06.getting in the way of something that could help the industry?
:48:07. > :48:11.Certainly not in terms of the steel industry. The UK Government could do
:48:12. > :48:17.things that wouldn't impact on EU state aid. One more example, if
:48:18. > :48:20.there is an announcement tomorrow of large-scale job losses in Port
:48:21. > :48:24.Talbot, the UK Government could apply to globalisation fund and
:48:25. > :48:29.access ?5 million. The fund is there to help workers.
:48:30. > :48:36.The UK Government has not accessed a single penny from that fund.
:48:37. > :48:43.They should be that many. That's a fair point, isn't it?
:48:44. > :48:46.Yes, carbon emissions from the UK prevent the extraction of coal.
:48:47. > :48:52.They've had permission to extract the cold but they cannot because of
:48:53. > :48:55.EU will and directives. Carbon emissions, you know, make that
:48:56. > :49:02.obsolete, really. What about the point that when we
:49:03. > :49:05.look at cheap coal coming in from China, in America they've
:49:06. > :49:08.implemented tariffs on imported, is that something that the UK could be
:49:09. > :49:15.doing? Absolutely. One thing that Labour
:49:16. > :49:17.MEPs are pressing for is an anti-dumping tariff. Unfortunately,
:49:18. > :49:22.the UK Government has not supported that.
:49:23. > :49:27.They've called for investigations to see whether or not China is actually
:49:28. > :49:31.done thing low-cost steel. We don't know that's happening. I
:49:32. > :49:36.was at a discussion in Brussels last week and I know that despite the UK
:49:37. > :49:40.Government not supporting the tariffs, now there are four cases of
:49:41. > :49:44.steel going to the European Commission. Sometime in the near
:49:45. > :49:47.future I hope those tariffs will be put in place. That will help the
:49:48. > :49:51.industry. I'd like to see the Welsh
:49:52. > :49:56.government, and the UK Government being in harmony. They are blaming
:49:57. > :49:59.one another. Get their heads together, put aside their
:50:00. > :50:03.differences and put the Welsh steel workers first. This is what we must
:50:04. > :50:09.concentrate on all the sake of our economy and these people.
:50:10. > :50:14.In the report their people are saying that the Welsh government
:50:15. > :50:19.should buy a stake in the Port Talbot plant.
:50:20. > :50:21.Is that feasible? No, I'm looking at coal extraction, I have to be
:50:22. > :50:29.honest. But that's just one part of it.
:50:30. > :50:33.I think that the two governments should get together and look, and
:50:34. > :50:37.talk to one another, for once instead of being against each other,
:50:38. > :50:40.put your differences aside and work collaboratively with the people of
:50:41. > :50:44.Wales. I know from discussions at Tata last
:50:45. > :50:49.week that the unions and management they are pretty impressed with what
:50:50. > :50:52.the Welsh government has tried to do concerning business rates and
:50:53. > :50:57.investment. But they've is so much more that the UK Government should
:50:58. > :51:01.be doing, they just haven't done it. They've got no strategy, no policy.
:51:02. > :51:07.Dot. But they've given tens of millions
:51:08. > :51:11.of pounds as compensation for higher energy costs. From a Labour Party
:51:12. > :51:15.point of view, we've heard Jeremy Corbyn said let's re-nationalise the
:51:16. > :51:18.railways, you think it's on the cards that you start saying we
:51:19. > :51:26.should look at re-nationalising steel as well?
:51:27. > :51:30.As a last resort, it may be something we look at. The steel
:51:31. > :51:34.industry across the UK is in serious trouble. Something needs to be done.
:51:35. > :51:38.Before we get to the stage I'm saying there is more the UK
:51:39. > :51:43.Government could be doing, supporting anti-dumping tariffs,
:51:44. > :51:46.putting in place investment, research, development and
:51:47. > :51:49.environmental centres. There is more the UK Government should be doing
:51:50. > :51:56.but opened her mouth a point-blank refused to do anything.
:51:57. > :52:00.You live in the area, we are expecting these hundreds of jobs to
:52:01. > :52:03.go tomorrow, perhaps next week what effect will that have?
:52:04. > :52:08.It will have a terrible effect on the lives of the people who are made
:52:09. > :52:13.redundant. Also, on the economy as a whole.
:52:14. > :52:18.We are looking to bring on the Welsh economy, we can't, historically,
:52:19. > :52:24.we've been a world leader in heavy manufacturing industry. It's all
:52:25. > :52:28.been decimated in the last 15 years. I really, really think it's
:52:29. > :52:31.important that the Government, the two governments, the Welsh and UK
:52:32. > :52:41.governments have urgent talks with one another and to fight, if needed,
:52:42. > :52:45.the European rules and regulations. I am sorry, we are going to have to
:52:46. > :52:47.leave it there. Thank you very much both.
:52:48. > :52:50.On now to the first big set piece debate with the 5 main Welsh party
:52:51. > :52:55.Our sister programme, Sunday Supplement on BBC Radio Wales
:52:56. > :52:59.And perhaps not surprisingly, there were many disagreements
:53:00. > :53:07.on issues including health, education and the economy.
:53:08. > :53:14.In around 100 days the five political leaders will be asking for
:53:15. > :53:20.your vote at the Assembly elections. This morning the arguments were
:53:21. > :53:24.rehearsed in a BBC radio studio. They debated the economy, health and
:53:25. > :53:30.education. They agreed more jobs were needed, but how? Plaid Cymru
:53:31. > :53:34.says Wales needs more inward investments and wants to bring back
:53:35. > :53:40.the Welsh development agency as a body to promote Wales abroad.
:53:41. > :53:45.We are not selling Wales abroad as well as we could. There is a great
:53:46. > :53:51.brand here. There are some fantastic businesses here in Wales and the
:53:52. > :53:55.WDA, as was, is known internationally. That was ditched.
:53:56. > :54:01.We are saying that we could do better in terms of economic Forum on
:54:02. > :54:07.a global scale if there was an organisation acting for Wales. It's
:54:08. > :54:13.not working at the moment. How else will undoubtedly be a
:54:14. > :54:16.central issue company's elections. The Conservatives and Ukip wants
:54:17. > :54:22.directly elected health commissions. It's been a long term policy that we
:54:23. > :54:27.bring accountability to the health boards. They are not just somewhere
:54:28. > :54:30.where people can be rewarded. We want to make them fully accountable
:54:31. > :54:38.by making the entire health board electable. So not just a commission
:54:39. > :54:42.about the entire board? The entire board. When we have
:54:43. > :54:46.issues like in North Wales the entire board would be done away with
:54:47. > :54:49.through democracy. Plaid Cymru want a reorganisation,
:54:50. > :54:57.but Labour and the Liberal Democrats say that would be too much upheaval.
:54:58. > :55:04.What the NHS needs is more politics. We need to take the politics out of
:55:05. > :55:08.the NHS. I put on the table, many months ago, a nonparty commission to
:55:09. > :55:14.put the long-term strategic challenges of the NHS, the Labour
:55:15. > :55:19.Party saw the potential in that. The other parties walked away. We need
:55:20. > :55:22.to work together to overcome the challenges of an ageing population.
:55:23. > :55:27.There were debates over whether England spends more money on health
:55:28. > :55:29.than Wales. Some robust exchanges took place about education
:55:30. > :55:38.standards. We said that we would -- protect
:55:39. > :55:44.schools. We did. We said that GCSEs would improve, they did. Literacy,
:55:45. > :55:50.numeracy frameworks, we got tests that parents can see. We've done
:55:51. > :55:56.that. We've invested money to bring the worst up to the level of the
:55:57. > :55:59.best. We believe that every child deserves a good education.
:56:00. > :56:04.Bride and the Liberal Democrats said standards weren't where they should
:56:05. > :56:09.be and change was needed. -- party macro and the Liberal Democrats.
:56:10. > :56:19.What we've got to do is have greater choice in the education system we've
:56:20. > :56:24.got to appreciate this strength of the pew bills. Vocational courses at
:56:25. > :56:28.our best for some individuals and are promoted by the vocational
:56:29. > :56:33.route. We've got to make sure that we raise the esteem of further
:56:34. > :56:36.education so that where people come out with qualifications from
:56:37. > :56:41.colleges they can generally have a part to play in the economy.
:56:42. > :56:43.This was the first big set piece debate ahead of the elections, there
:56:44. > :56:44.are plenty more still to come. Well, the man trying
:56:45. > :56:47.to keep everyone in check, chairing that debate was our Welsh
:56:48. > :57:00.Affairs Editor Vaughan Roderick You've recovered Ben! It was a
:57:01. > :57:04.lively debate, wasn't it? It was interesting. The one thing
:57:05. > :57:09.I've noticed, one word continually came up, that was changed.
:57:10. > :57:14.When you have a government that's been in power for 16, 17 years as
:57:15. > :57:20.Labour have been in Cardiff Bay you would expect this to be a change in
:57:21. > :57:23.action. What you had was all the opposition parties pushing this
:57:24. > :57:29.change message and competing with each other for the change wrote. The
:57:30. > :57:33.difficulty is this, there are quirks in the Welsh election system that
:57:34. > :57:36.make it difficult for Wales to lose. They can win half the seats with
:57:37. > :57:42.roughly one third of the votes because of the way the system works.
:57:43. > :57:48.All the opposition parties feel that there is a big change out there.
:57:49. > :57:52.And the one leader not talking about change was Carwyn Jones, how
:57:53. > :57:59.difficult is it after 16 or 17 years of Labour rule here to try and
:58:00. > :58:05.appear to be fresh and not have that change wrote against them?
:58:06. > :58:11.I think it is immensely difficult. The question that Labour face is
:58:12. > :58:17.that they have changed radically at a UK level, but is that to their
:58:18. > :58:22.advantage in terms of Wales? Carwyn Jones had little choice, really, but
:58:23. > :58:26.to defend his record. Politicians love to be able to blame the last
:58:27. > :58:30.government. The last government and the one before that, and the one
:58:31. > :58:36.before that, were led by Labour in Wales so he can't do that. It was a
:58:37. > :58:41.tough job up against four. He handled it pretty well.
:58:42. > :58:45.He was trying to convey a sense of steady as she goes, we are moving in
:58:46. > :58:51.the right direction. All elections, at the end of the day, two into a
:58:52. > :58:56.battle between hope and there. What Carwyn Jones is saying that there
:58:57. > :59:02.are risks in changing direction. I think we'll find a lot of
:59:03. > :59:06.mudslinging, comparing and contracting Wales and England,
:59:07. > :59:11.especially on health. We had that allotment between Andrew RT Davies
:59:12. > :59:18.and Carwyn Jones, it generates more heat than light.
:59:19. > :59:22.And the problem is, is there a fracture on this, what you will
:59:23. > :59:27.find, is they are both correct. These stats they are using are
:59:28. > :59:31.different statistics. One of those statistics didn't take age of the
:59:32. > :59:35.population into account, the other did. You know, they were cherry
:59:36. > :59:42.picking statistics. As I think the campaign goes on, we
:59:43. > :59:48.will get a better picture of those sort of arguments. I noticed Andrew
:59:49. > :59:51.RT Davies didn't put a figure on education spending, he won't get
:59:52. > :59:55.away with that. I think he's perfectly entitled to do today, but
:59:56. > :59:59.he will be able to do that before the election. He'll have to come up
:00:00. > :00:03.with those figures. But even at this relatively early
:00:04. > :00:06.stage there were plenty of differences in terms of policies on
:00:07. > :00:10.health organisation, what kind of schools do want to see in Wales, it
:00:11. > :00:18.was clear that there are separate at and policies emerging.
:00:19. > :00:21.-- separate agendas and policies emerging. There are sharp
:00:22. > :00:27.differentiations between the parties now in terms of policies. I remember
:00:28. > :00:30.the second election was incredibly boring, basically the argument came
:00:31. > :00:39.down to should it be pensioners or kids who get free access to is
:00:40. > :00:43.wrinkles. -- swimming pools. Do you foresee it, these possible
:00:44. > :00:47.new powers for the Assembly, with the power to vary in gum tax by
:00:48. > :00:52.2018, might there be talk about taxes and the manifestos to?
:00:53. > :00:59.I think the Conservatives will paint this picture of wanting to create a
:01:00. > :01:02.low tax Wales. Other powers, its more uncertain because Wales Bill
:01:03. > :01:06.hasn't gone through Parliament yet. In a sense all the parties are
:01:07. > :01:12.writing the manifestos a bit blind in terms of that.
:01:13. > :01:14.And in the last couple of days the education minister, Huw Lewis, is
:01:15. > :01:19.not standing for election this time, what you make of that?
:01:20. > :01:26.The surprises that he announced it so late. We have a number of people
:01:27. > :01:31.elected in 1999 who say that they don't want to do 20, 21 years. I
:01:32. > :01:35.think it's a little bit surprising that it's been announced so late in
:01:36. > :01:37.the day. I don't think we should read too much into it in terms of
:01:38. > :01:39.of the politics of it. the politics of it.
:01:40. > :06:36.Don't forget you follow all the latest on twitter,
:06:37. > :06:41.Donald Trump is net damaging for the Scottish economy, but that is not
:06:42. > :06:46.why I am saying he should be considered on the same basis as
:06:47. > :06:52.everybody else. We have banned American shock jocks and MPs, not
:06:53. > :06:58.necessarily on terrorism, Donald Trump is not on any of these things,
:06:59. > :07:04.but making statements, in the words of the formulation, are not
:07:05. > :07:08.conducive to the public interest. What did you get wrong, your
:07:09. > :07:13.assessment of Donald Trump, or the size of an independent Scotland's
:07:14. > :07:19.oil revenue? Eight years ago I would have found it difficult to know that
:07:20. > :07:23.Donald Trump was going to run for president of the US. Most people
:07:24. > :07:28.would have found that an incredible proposition. I was not to know he
:07:29. > :07:32.would make a range of statements that are deeply offensive and deeply
:07:33. > :07:39.not acceptable whether they apply to Mexicans all Muslims. Nor did I
:07:40. > :07:46.anticipate he would only go forward with a 10th of the investment
:07:47. > :07:51.promised. It is a yes or no, which? I did not anticipate any of these
:07:52. > :07:56.things, Andrew. Thanks for joining us. You have won the prize for the
:07:57. > :08:01.best ever backdrop to an interview down the line I have done. Alex
:08:02. > :08:12.Salmond, thank you for joining us. Back to Europe, we are told I think
:08:13. > :08:16.the Sunday Times and other papers that the Prime Minister is not going
:08:17. > :08:23.to just get what he wants, he is going to pull rabbits out of a hat
:08:24. > :08:27.and get more than we expect. We spent 2015 playing down
:08:28. > :08:31.expectations. I remember number 10 enjoying it in November and December
:08:32. > :08:35.when the Conservative leaning press was talking down the renegotiation
:08:36. > :08:39.Cameron would achieve, they wanted to go into February with Tory
:08:40. > :08:44.backbenchers and voters and members expecting really quite a paltry deal
:08:45. > :08:48.from Brussels and Berlin. The rabbits he pulls out of his hat do
:08:49. > :08:53.not have to be big, they can be medium-sized. They can still clear
:08:54. > :09:00.the low hurdle that has been set for him. He has raised the bar by
:09:01. > :09:04.talking about rabbits. So far this has gone exactly as I and many
:09:05. > :09:08.others predicted. Cameron was always going to orchestrate it so it
:09:09. > :09:12.sounded like it would be difficult and then he managed to get
:09:13. > :09:18.concessions and then he gets something fantastic at the last
:09:19. > :09:25.crucial moment! I think that leave, out campaign, the various campaigns,
:09:26. > :09:29.have a challenge. Not to allow Tisch boaters to fall for these ruses and
:09:30. > :09:44.there should be real scrutiny of what Cameron comes back with. --
:09:45. > :09:49.allow voters. If you are the Prime Minister on the European project,
:09:50. > :09:53.which I expect privately he wishes he did not kick off in the first
:09:54. > :10:01.those, it looks good, it looks like he will get a deal. The potential
:10:02. > :10:05.major deserters, we are told Michael Gove will stay, Nick Herbert forms a
:10:06. > :10:13.Eurosceptic group to stay inside, and we see no sign of Boris Johnson,
:10:14. > :10:20.Theresa May leading the out camp. If they do not do it, that is job done
:10:21. > :10:25.for the Prime Minister. Yes, it is dangerous to predict, but the stars
:10:26. > :10:30.seem to be coming together in a favourable way. I picked this up on
:10:31. > :10:34.Thursday last week, essentially the Prime Minister would get something
:10:35. > :10:40.on welfare that would be better on the four-year ban on in work
:10:41. > :10:45.benefits. You could say pressure on public services is too great and we
:10:46. > :10:49.need to limit migration. What is interesting is that potentially
:10:50. > :10:53.means the four girls he wants, he could do better than that. It is
:10:54. > :10:59.interesting because it now appears according to an opinion poll in the
:11:00. > :11:03.Times newspaper, voters have clocked onto the negotiations and believed
:11:04. > :11:07.they are for real and believe if the Prime Minister gets a good package,
:11:08. > :11:17.there is a greater chance they will vote to stay in. All the detriment
:11:18. > :11:22.-- diplomats who said he could not do this, he appears to have proved
:11:23. > :11:26.them wrong. If it is going well for the Prime Minister, there are
:11:27. > :11:34.opinion polls showing a majority to come out, today. I have learned my
:11:35. > :11:38.lesson from the general election, which is not to believe polls and so
:11:39. > :11:43.I do not think they are correct. They were right on the Scottish
:11:44. > :11:48.referendum. You think the campaign is starting from behind? I do and I
:11:49. > :11:53.think there is a danger as Nigel Farage touched upon, that voters
:11:54. > :11:58.will think it is a giant stitch up if the political establishment, the
:11:59. > :12:01.big figures we have talked about, are on one side, it does not look
:12:02. > :12:10.like a balanced debate and it may backfire. Tomorrow, the equity
:12:11. > :12:14.markets have had their worst start to the year since the crash. All
:12:15. > :12:17.eyes will be on London and New York tomorrow. Should the government
:12:18. > :12:23.prepare for a potential financial crisis? It is politically preparing
:12:24. > :12:28.because George Osborne gave a speech ten days ago that was more negative
:12:29. > :12:33.about the economic picture than the Autumn Statement in November. That I
:12:34. > :12:41.think is laying the political ground if not for recession or crisis, then
:12:42. > :12:45.slower growth than we were expecting. It looks worrying, the
:12:46. > :12:50.Dow was down almost 500 points at one stage. That would be very bad
:12:51. > :12:55.for George Osborne but there is an argument people will cling to him as
:12:56. > :12:59.a future leader if times are tough. Some people saw that speech as the
:13:00. > :13:03.beginning of Project Fear on the European referendum. Maybe he
:13:04. > :13:11.believed it and he was telling us the warning lights were flashing. We
:13:12. > :13:12.will see if there is a flight to British bonds. Keep your eye on the
:13:13. > :13:15.markets tomorrow. The Daily Politics is back tomorrow
:13:16. > :13:21.at midday over on BBC Two, and I'll be back here,
:13:22. > :13:28.same time, same place, Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:29. > :13:32.it's the Sunday Politics.