:00:39. > :00:46.Jeremy Corbyn calls on Britain to accept more refugees and economic
:00:47. > :00:50.migrants, as the Port of Calais is forced to close overnight
:00:51. > :00:54.after migrants attempted to force their way onto a Channel ferry.
:00:55. > :00:58.David Cameron appears increasingly confident he'll bag a deal on EU
:00:59. > :01:01.reform next month, including new measures to reduce EU migration
:01:02. > :01:07.In the first of three Sunday Politics debates,
:01:08. > :01:10.the leave and remain campaigns go head-to-head on immigration.
:01:11. > :01:16.And speaking exclusively to this programme, Ed Miliband's former
:01:17. > :01:20.pollster Deborah Mattinson criticises Labour's official report
:01:21. > :01:23.into why the party lost the general election for failing to face up
:01:24. > :01:28.Seconds out. and a massive missed opportunity.
:01:29. > :01:31.The Welsh and UK governments are squaring up for another fight
:01:32. > :01:39.This time it's over new trade union laws.
:01:40. > :01:45.The Conservative's 7/7 candidate has now launched his
:01:46. > :01:51.-- the conservative's Mayor candidate has now launched his
:01:52. > :01:53.action plan. And with me, as always,
:01:54. > :01:55.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:56. > :01:58.Nick Watt, Beth Rigby and Janan They'll be tweeting
:01:59. > :02:00.throughout the programme So, the Port of Calais was forced
:02:01. > :02:07.to close for a while yesterday after migrants managed to breach
:02:08. > :02:10.security and board a ferry. Amateur footage captured
:02:11. > :02:13.the moment a group managed to break through security fences and head
:02:14. > :02:15.towards the P ferry. The incident happened
:02:16. > :02:17.during a protest at the port, The head of the Road Haulage
:02:18. > :02:21.Association here in Britain has renewed demands for the French
:02:22. > :02:23.military to intervene. As it happens,
:02:24. > :02:25.the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was in northern France yesterday,
:02:26. > :02:27.visiting the migrant camps While he was there,
:02:28. > :02:32.he reiterated his calls for the British Government to do
:02:33. > :02:38.more to help migrants. I talk to people all over
:02:39. > :02:41.the country and not everyone is that cold-hearted, not everyone
:02:42. > :02:45.else has a stony heart. They are prepared to reach out,
:02:46. > :02:48.and I think we need a response And indeed Germany has
:02:49. > :02:53.done an enormous amount, other countries have
:02:54. > :02:57.done varying amounts, and I think we should
:02:58. > :03:00.be part of helping to bring a European-wide support
:03:01. > :03:13.to people, and that's what I'm Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Beth, what
:03:14. > :03:18.we make of the story, the government will allow unaccompanied children
:03:19. > :03:24.refugees, already in Europe, to come into Britain? Some of my government
:03:25. > :03:27.sources have suggested that is not what David Cameron would like to do,
:03:28. > :03:32.if you think about how he dealt with the crisis in August, he said we
:03:33. > :03:36.will take some Syrian refugees but we will take them from the camps in
:03:37. > :03:40.Syria and around Syria, we will not take them from Calais, because he
:03:41. > :03:45.thinks this is a push factor and it makes people come over. What the
:03:46. > :03:51.government might end up doing, they might agree to take refugee children
:03:52. > :03:55.unaccompanied, but only from Syria and the Middle East, not from
:03:56. > :04:03.Calais. What about the kids who have made it here? They could be bad way.
:04:04. > :04:07.Nick? The signals on government, they have not made any decisions yet
:04:08. > :04:11.and the announcement is not imminent, but Beth makes a very
:04:12. > :04:14.important point, the Prime Minister said you do not want to encourage
:04:15. > :04:16.people to make that journey, therefore the instinct is to take
:04:17. > :04:22.people from the neighbouring countries. Apart from unaccompanied
:04:23. > :04:26.kids, they have come across in terrible conditions, and they are in
:04:27. > :04:31.Calais and Dunkirk. The call to take these children, from that report,
:04:32. > :04:35.that says that is a fair proportion of the 26,000 unaccompanied children
:04:36. > :04:40.that have come to Europe. The figures in that report are
:04:41. > :04:45.terrifying, in 2014, of the 13,000 unaccompanied children that ended up
:04:46. > :04:49.in Italy, 3000 went missing, and of the African children that went to
:04:50. > :04:55.Italy, half of them had been subject to some form of sexual abuse, it is
:04:56. > :05:02.the most horrific figures. That 3000 figure, endorsed by Jeremy Corbyn,
:05:03. > :05:03.also endorsed by the cross-party International Development Select
:05:04. > :05:09.Committee, said there is edible pressure on the Prime Minister on
:05:10. > :05:12.this one. -- formidable. The humanitarian case has been strongly
:05:13. > :05:18.but by Jeremy Corbyn and others, but it is marginal. 3000 children, that
:05:19. > :05:25.would be great for them, but 37,000 migrants have come to Greece in
:05:26. > :05:30.January alone, and the mud has not even ended, ten times the number
:05:31. > :05:35.that came in last January -- the month. The problem is getting bigger
:05:36. > :05:40.and bigger, and the response has been wholly inadequate. It has, it
:05:41. > :05:47.looks marginal, but that is about as much as you can expect, until there
:05:48. > :05:51.is EU wide agreement about how to distribute what you might call the
:05:52. > :05:54.burden of the influx, but there is nothing close to that agreement and
:05:55. > :05:58.there's not even a deal between the EU and Turkey about ceiling borders
:05:59. > :06:03.and dealing with human traffickers let alone a deal within the EU about
:06:04. > :06:08.which country bears how much of the burden. Until then, you just have
:06:09. > :06:12.these improvised solutions, 3000 here, France taking a bit more, and
:06:13. > :06:16.there is no certainty that the unaccompanied children are
:06:17. > :06:20.overwhelmingly Syrian, there is the suspicion that Syrians travel as
:06:21. > :06:26.complete families and the unaccompanied children are
:06:27. > :06:29.disproportionately from Somalia, for example, similarly distress, but not
:06:30. > :06:33.the problem that they think they are dealing with. This plays into the
:06:34. > :06:38.referendum question, there is the nervousness in the in campaign, that
:06:39. > :06:42.a referendum in September, after a summer of large sums of migrants
:06:43. > :06:46.coming in, kids or otherwise, would affect the result one way or
:06:47. > :06:48.another. That is a big story, and we will come back to that at the end of
:06:49. > :06:50.the show. Last week, the long-awaited autopsy
:06:51. > :06:53.into Labour's defeat at the general The report by Margaret Beckett
:06:54. > :06:58.concluded that Ed Miliband wasn't judged to be as strong a leader
:06:59. > :07:01.as David Cameron, and that Labour had failed to shake off the myth
:07:02. > :07:04.that Labour was responsible But parallel research was also
:07:05. > :07:07.commissioned to inform the Beckett Report,
:07:08. > :07:09.and despite being completed in July, The former Labour pollster
:07:10. > :07:13.Deborah Mattinson carried out this research, and has spoken exclusively
:07:14. > :07:16.to the Sunday Politics. We are saying the Conservatives
:07:17. > :07:27.are the largest party. We all know what happened
:07:28. > :07:29.on election night. Instead of a hung parliament,
:07:30. > :07:33.David Cameron walked back into Downing Street
:07:34. > :07:36.with a majority of 12. Labour got it wrong, as well,
:07:37. > :07:39.suffering a net loss of 26 Friends, this is not the speech
:07:40. > :07:43.I wanted to give today. Ed Miliband resigned
:07:44. > :07:46.within hours, but it has taken eight and a half
:07:47. > :07:49.months for the party to publish its own inquiry
:07:50. > :07:53.into what went wrong. Margaret Beckett's report is called
:07:54. > :07:57.Learning The Lessons From Defeat. It doesn't, says one pollster,
:07:58. > :08:01.who has worked for several former I think it was a whitewash
:08:02. > :08:06.and a massive missed opportunity. Just a few weeks after the election
:08:07. > :08:09.defeat, Deborah Mattinson was commissioned
:08:10. > :08:12.by the acting leader Harriet Harman to research
:08:13. > :08:14.why Labour lost. She says the evidence was meant
:08:15. > :08:16.to feed into the Beckett I did brief Margaret
:08:17. > :08:22.Beckett so I was somewhat disappointed not to see some
:08:23. > :08:25.of that reflected back. Yes, I think she picked up
:08:26. > :08:28.on the economy but there was actually no analysis,
:08:29. > :08:31.it is reduced effectively to one And there is a lot of quite
:08:32. > :08:41.defensive stuff about the fact this does not necessarily
:08:42. > :08:44.mean that anti-austerity is wrong. "Of course we had a great business
:08:45. > :08:47.strategy, what a pity the voters "That was probably
:08:48. > :08:52.the fault of the media". Quite apologetic,
:08:53. > :08:55.lots of defensive stuff in there, but nothing that actually
:08:56. > :08:58.really shone a light on what had Do you accept that when Labour
:08:59. > :09:02.was last in power it No, I don't, and I know
:09:03. > :09:07.you might not agree with that Margaret Beckett's report
:09:08. > :09:15.acknowledges that Labour failed to shake what she
:09:16. > :09:17.describes as the myth that the party caused
:09:18. > :09:19.the financial crisis. But she concludes that Labour
:09:20. > :09:23.was not seen as anti-aspiration Deborah Mattinson says that
:09:24. > :09:26.for people in her focus groups Frankly, they did not trust Labour
:09:27. > :09:31.to manage the economy effectively, they were very
:09:32. > :09:34.concerned about that. In their minds, they
:09:35. > :09:39.are seeing a conflation between the financial crisis,
:09:40. > :09:45.which they do blame Labour for, rightly or wrongly,
:09:46. > :09:46.and their sense that Labour would waste money,
:09:47. > :09:49.their money, and run the economy Voters could not see
:09:50. > :09:56.him as Prime Minister. But Margaret Beckett
:09:57. > :10:00.concluded that Ed Miliband faced an exceptionally
:10:01. > :10:03.vitriolic and personal attack People looked at Ed Miliband
:10:04. > :10:08.and did not see him And if you look at every
:10:09. > :10:13.election since the 70s, what we see, the party that has
:10:14. > :10:16.the leader with the best ratings is the party that wins,
:10:17. > :10:20.there is no exception to that. I get it, that people weren't
:10:21. > :10:23.prejudiced against immigration, I get it and I understand
:10:24. > :10:29.the need to change. The Beckett Report acknowledges that
:10:30. > :10:32.Labour did not quite get it on issues like immigration
:10:33. > :10:36.and benefits, and that the fear of the SNP propping up a minority
:10:37. > :10:47.government scared off many voters. But Deborah Mattinson says Labour
:10:48. > :10:55.was losing support in Scotland well before the independence referendum
:10:56. > :10:58.and the surge in SNP support. Put simply, she said
:10:59. > :11:00.voters did not feel that Labour was on their side,
:11:01. > :11:06.and the party still does not I feel very concerned
:11:07. > :11:14.that the lessons will be learned and I can't see how
:11:15. > :11:17.they will be learned, because that was the vehicle,
:11:18. > :11:19.that was the moment, and if this report does not address
:11:20. > :11:22.those issues then I'm not No political party has a divine
:11:23. > :11:27.right to exist and unless Labour really listens to those voters,
:11:28. > :11:29.that it must persuade, it stands no chance
:11:30. > :11:31.of winning the next election. And we've been joined by the former
:11:32. > :11:33.Shadow Cabinet minister Michael Dugher - you might remember
:11:34. > :11:41.he was sacked by Jeremy Corbyn Deborah Mattinson says the better
:11:42. > :11:47.report is a whitewash, is she right? -- Beckett Report. That is a bit
:11:48. > :11:50.harsh, does it have all the answers, though, of course not, and I think
:11:51. > :11:55.Deborah Mattinson make some very fair observations in that piece, but
:11:56. > :11:59.what Margaret concludes in her report, it is not a massive shock to
:12:00. > :12:03.those of us that were knocking on doors last May and have thought long
:12:04. > :12:06.and hard about it since, we were not trusted enough on the economy, and
:12:07. > :12:10.that was the big issue, but also on immigration and welfare, we were
:12:11. > :12:14.seen as out of touch, and also leadership being the most important
:12:15. > :12:19.thing in any race. She makes those conclusions, in the report, and I
:12:20. > :12:23.think the key thing now, is to listen to the issues that she
:12:24. > :12:25.raises, but also listen to Debra and many others who have made a
:12:26. > :12:30.contribution since the report came out. We have got to face up to the
:12:31. > :12:35.difficult issues as to why we lost, if we are going to win again. Voters
:12:36. > :12:38.found Ed Miliband the personification of the Labour brand,
:12:39. > :12:44.that was the problem, well-meaning but ineffectual. I'm likely to
:12:45. > :12:50.deliver -- and likely to deliver on promises. Did you detect that at the
:12:51. > :12:54.time? I was very close to Ed Miliband and I gave him some advice,
:12:55. > :12:58.some of which he took and some of which he didn't. I wanted him to be
:12:59. > :13:03.a success, I saw him in private and you have strong he did beat, and
:13:04. > :13:07.often he got very unfair coverage in the media and often he did not do
:13:08. > :13:11.himself justice in his performances -- I saw him in private and how
:13:12. > :13:17.strong he did beat. The real lesson here, for any lead at the Labour
:13:18. > :13:22.Party can you have got to play to your strengths and you have got a
:13:23. > :13:28.fundamentally address your perceived weaknesses. The private polling
:13:29. > :13:33.showed the Tories were in the late, was that not a warning that things
:13:34. > :13:37.were going wrong? -- in the lead. I'm not sure how much private
:13:38. > :13:43.polling I was shown. You did not see this? The year before the election,
:13:44. > :13:46.I was appointed Shadow Secretary of State for Transport, I was not so
:13:47. > :13:52.much part of the central operations and I did not see private polling.
:13:53. > :13:55.Many of us thought that we were getting difficult conversations on
:13:56. > :13:58.the doorstep, but we were told consistently, including by the
:13:59. > :14:01.pollsters, that we were neck and neck and there was a perception that
:14:02. > :14:05.we were doing better in the marginals, as well. That turned out
:14:06. > :14:10.to be catastrophically wrong, but one of the things that is not in
:14:11. > :14:14.Margaret's report is about the organisational lessons, that does
:14:15. > :14:18.speak, if you have a million conversations, what are you doing
:14:19. > :14:22.with the data? I remember in the last two days of the campaign, I was
:14:23. > :14:27.sent to Derbyshire, Amber Valley, and in Yorkshire, to Rothwell, but I
:14:28. > :14:32.should have been sent to Morley to help Ed Balls, and Derby North to
:14:33. > :14:38.help Chris Wood this. The campaign has got to base what they do on the
:14:39. > :14:41.information, and in 2010 we took very hard decisions, six months away
:14:42. > :14:45.from polling day, based on the information we had about prioritise
:14:46. > :14:53.in resources, but are not sure that happens this time. -- I'm not sure.
:14:54. > :15:04.Deborah Mattinson looks at the boundary changes before the next
:15:05. > :15:10.election, and she thinks the Beckett Report made a failure to confront
:15:11. > :15:16.why you lost enough. Her conclusion is this, Labour's future is in
:15:17. > :15:20.profound jeopardy - is it? I think we have a massive challenge at the
:15:21. > :15:26.next election. I don't think any political party has a right to be
:15:27. > :15:30.successful in the future. I am an optimistic person. Labour, when we
:15:31. > :15:36.have got our act together, when we have been in touch with the public
:15:37. > :15:44.we have shown we can win. Is Labour's continued existence a
:15:45. > :15:50.question mark? We have got to start getting in touch with the public.
:15:51. > :16:02.One thing the report did slightly skirt around, the question over
:16:03. > :16:06.politics as an identity. People like myself have been banging on about
:16:07. > :16:11.this, not just in the weeks before the election but for months and
:16:12. > :16:15.years before, and we need to face up to that. No political party has a
:16:16. > :16:22.right to exist, but I think if Labour gets our act together, if we
:16:23. > :16:26.stop picking fights with ourselves, if we face up to the difficult
:16:27. > :16:33.issues in this report and elsewhere, we can be successful in the future.
:16:34. > :16:38.In what ways, as things stand at the moment, what ways will Labour be
:16:39. > :16:42.better, in better shape, under Jeremy Corbyn heading into the 2020
:16:43. > :16:48.election than it was in the 2015 election? What is one of the main
:16:49. > :16:57.conclusions from the Beckett Report, it said we did make some gains,
:16:58. > :17:02.1.5%, but we were stacking up area -- support in areas where we were
:17:03. > :17:06.already strong. If they think you are out of touch on immigration and
:17:07. > :17:11.welfare, you had better start talking about immigration and
:17:12. > :17:17.welfare. Jeremy Corbyn seems to want almost no limit on immigration, it
:17:18. > :17:25.is hard to detect if he would have any limits, and he is rather against
:17:26. > :17:30.welfare reforms. I'm not sure that is an election winning strategy. On
:17:31. > :17:36.immigration, I made this point to him, you have got to understand this
:17:37. > :17:39.is the second biggest issue nationally, it is the biggest issue
:17:40. > :17:48.in many constituencies including mine, and I said that many of the
:17:49. > :17:52.answers are about stopping pressure on wages and conditions. There are
:17:53. > :17:59.good centre-left solutions to these problems, about Europe dividing more
:18:00. > :18:04.help for communities facing these changes. I made the point to him, on
:18:05. > :18:09.welfare he is right to say we should be standing up to help the most
:18:10. > :18:13.vulnerable, but in my experience you only get heard on those issues if
:18:14. > :18:17.the public think you are for real in terms of wanting to be tough on
:18:18. > :18:22.people who are frankly making decisions not to go into work so you
:18:23. > :18:27.have got to get the balance right. Do you accept, given his huge
:18:28. > :18:33.support among party members, that Jeremy Corbyn will lead you into the
:18:34. > :18:40.next election? He faces a big test in May. We have seen the polls and
:18:41. > :18:44.the ratings, any big test is a real election. He faces a big test
:18:45. > :18:48.because he was clear that a left-wing agenda is the key to
:18:49. > :18:52.transforming our fortunes in Scotland, I hope he's right. We need
:18:53. > :18:56.to win in London but we have got to show we can make big gains in the
:18:57. > :19:03.rest of London as well and we have got to hold onto power in Wales as
:19:04. > :19:07.well. But even if he fails these tests, do you think there will be an
:19:08. > :19:13.attempt to remove him? We have got to get behind Jeremy and he has got
:19:14. > :19:18.to show us that he can deliver and turn things around. We need to get
:19:19. > :19:29.behind him. People are very clear about what Jeremy stands for. He has
:19:30. > :19:32.achieved remarkable cut throughs. Over the next few months we will see
:19:33. > :19:36.more of that so he has got to be given a chance because he has a huge
:19:37. > :19:40.mandate by the party members but he has got to show he can turn that
:19:41. > :19:45.into real support from the public. That means also winning the support
:19:46. > :19:49.of people who voted Conservative last time. It is not an easy
:19:50. > :19:54.challenge, we are behind him in that but he has got to show he can learn
:19:55. > :19:59.the lessons that Margaret Beckett has talked about and Debra and
:20:00. > :20:01.others as well. We have got to stop it there, thank you.
:20:02. > :20:04.The hole Labour is in is deepest in Scotland, where the once-mighty
:20:05. > :20:06.party now holds just one Westminster seat.
:20:07. > :20:08.If Jeremy Corbyn is to win the general election in 2020,
:20:09. > :20:11.he needs to claw back support from the SNP,
:20:12. > :20:14.and the first test of his appeal north of the border is coming up
:20:15. > :20:16.fast in elections to the Scottish parliament in May.
:20:17. > :20:19.Speaking to Andrew Marr this morning, the leader of the SNP took
:20:20. > :20:23.aim at Mr Corbyn, criticising a plan he's floated
:20:24. > :20:26.to keep Britain's Trident submarines minus their nuclear warheads.
:20:27. > :20:29.I wonder what you made of Jeremy Corbyn's suggestion that
:20:30. > :20:31.you could keep the Trident submarines, therefore keep the jobs
:20:32. > :20:34.in Scotland, but not have nuclear missiles on them.
:20:35. > :20:37.I think it was ridiculous and I think it's a sign of just how
:20:38. > :20:40.tortured these debates are becoming within the Labour Party.
:20:41. > :20:42.On Trident, I agree with Jeremy Corbyn.
:20:43. > :20:46.I'm not in favour of the renewal of Trident, and we might have a vote
:20:47. > :20:50.on that in the House of Commons sooner rather than later.
:20:51. > :20:57.I think the real challenge for Jeremy Corbyn is,
:20:58. > :21:00.can he get his party into the position he wants it to be
:21:01. > :21:03.in so we can have any chance at all of stopping
:21:04. > :21:07.For Labour to sit on the fence on this issue or have a free vote
:21:08. > :21:11.on this issue will leave them without a shred of credibility.
:21:12. > :21:14.And I've been joined now by the Shadow Scottish Secretary,
:21:15. > :21:25.Let's pick up on the point from Nicola Sturgeon about Trident. In
:21:26. > :21:31.Scotland the electoral choice on this is clear, if you are unilateral
:21:32. > :21:35.disarmament, you vote SNP. You couldn't vote Labour on this issue
:21:36. > :21:41.because people don't know what you stand for. The Labour Party has been
:21:42. > :21:46.clear, a motion was passed almost unanimously to reject the renewal of
:21:47. > :21:53.Trident on that policy basis. But it is not party policy. There is a
:21:54. > :21:57.policy review happening at the moment so the Scottish Labour
:21:58. > :22:05.Party's policy on this is clear. It is a Scottish election don't forget.
:22:06. > :22:10.These Trident issues are diverting us away from big issues of policy in
:22:11. > :22:18.terms of public services. The Deborah Mattinson research found
:22:19. > :22:22.Scottish voters felt abandoned by the Labour Party. When did Labour
:22:23. > :22:27.start taking Scottish voters for granted? It has been clear from a
:22:28. > :22:31.number of reports that have been done that there has been a process
:22:32. > :22:38.in the party where we have not devolved the party as much as
:22:39. > :22:41.Scotland. The Scottish party, in 1999 it was a tremendous opportunity
:22:42. > :22:55.for the Scottish Labour Party but I don't think we have caught up with
:22:56. > :23:06.that. I think under Kesia's leadership she is refreshing that.
:23:07. > :23:14.You face further electoral disasters in Holyrood in May. No one is under
:23:15. > :23:21.any illusion this will be a difficult election, but what Kesia
:23:22. > :23:24.is trying to do is get a positive policy platform together, reconnect
:23:25. > :23:28.with Scottish people, respond to what Scottish people have been
:23:29. > :23:32.saying on the doorsteps, and she's doing that on the basis of
:23:33. > :23:38.responding to what the Scottish people want. That's what people want
:23:39. > :23:45.to have. What the Shadow Cabinet was told by your own election director
:23:46. > :23:49.is that he expects you to lose all of your constituency MSPs, just as
:23:50. > :23:56.you lost all of your constituency MPs bar you last May. What can you
:23:57. > :24:07.do to avoid that? The important thing is to go back to Kezia
:24:08. > :24:12.Dugdale's policy. She wants to change the policies of the Scottish
:24:13. > :24:19.Labour Party in order for us to have a policy platform that is incredibly
:24:20. > :24:23.positive. What is the most distinctive Scottish policy
:24:24. > :24:28.initiative since Jeremy Corbyn became leader? This isn't about
:24:29. > :24:33.Jeremy Corbyn, it is about Kezia Dugdale. We have helped to buy
:24:34. > :24:38.scheme for first time buyers, we want to build 60,000 affordable
:24:39. > :24:42.homes, we want to put the 50p tax rate back in to close the
:24:43. > :24:47.educational attainment gap, they are just a few of the policies she has
:24:48. > :24:52.announced already. She is one of the few people in this election campaign
:24:53. > :24:57.actually talking about the policy issues of Scotland. Nobody is
:24:58. > :25:00.talking about these kinds of issues. Do you think that collection
:25:01. > :25:05.policies you have outlined are enough to stave off a further
:25:06. > :25:09.electoral humiliation? It is just the start of a policy platform she
:25:10. > :25:17.will be announcing in the run-up to the elections. Help to buy is a Tory
:25:18. > :25:21.policy. This is about resolving a housing crisis that has been created
:25:22. > :25:29.by an SNP government. We are not holding them to account because
:25:30. > :25:34.people are obsessing over things like polls. The transport system is
:25:35. > :25:38.creaking at the seams. This has got to be dealt with and there is a real
:25:39. > :25:43.opportunity to talk about the powers the Scottish Government currently
:25:44. > :25:49.has and new powers. Let's talk about tomorrow's Scotland. How much would
:25:50. > :25:55.a top rate 50p tax for Scotland raised? Up to 10 million, depending
:25:56. > :25:59.where you would have any change but every single penny would go into
:26:00. > :26:07.educational attainment. When the Conservatives cut the tax rate to
:26:08. > :26:11.45p, the Treasury were projecting it would cost ?3 billion a year to
:26:12. > :26:18.satisfy. That was for the whole of the UK, so 60-110,000,000 is a lot
:26:19. > :26:27.of money we can use to cut the educational attainment gap. Why is
:26:28. > :26:31.Jeremy Corbyn not cutting much ice north of the border? He has won a
:26:32. > :26:35.significant mandate within the party, he needs to win that now
:26:36. > :26:42.within the country but what we are concentrating on now is Kezia
:26:43. > :26:50.Dugdale as a new leader. I am interesting that you stress all the
:26:51. > :26:59.time Kezia Dugdale, is Jeremy Corbyn and asset or a liability in May? He
:27:00. > :27:02.is an asset because she wants us to invest in public services, he wants
:27:03. > :27:08.to use the powers in the Scottish bill to transform the Scottish
:27:09. > :27:15.Parliament... So why are the polls, if you have got Kezia Dugdale and
:27:16. > :27:22.Jeremy Corbyn doing all the right things, why are the polls so dire
:27:23. > :27:26.for you in Scotland? We will fight for every single vote and seat, we
:27:27. > :27:30.fight to win every election but whilst we are talking about polls
:27:31. > :27:33.and not holding the Scottish Government to account for a dreadful
:27:34. > :27:37.record in Government for eight years and not talking about positive
:27:38. > :27:42.policies being put forward, we will not get any traction in the polls.
:27:43. > :27:47.Let's get this campaign onto real issues that ordinary Scots want to
:27:48. > :27:51.talk about on the doorsteps, which is about holding the Government to
:27:52. > :27:56.account for a dreadful track record, and get some policies on there that
:27:57. > :28:01.says to the people the Scottish Labour Party has changed and we can
:28:02. > :28:03.talk about tomorrow's Scotland and how we can transform people's lives.
:28:04. > :28:06.Thank you. The huge influx of migrants
:28:07. > :28:09.into the EU from Syria and elsewhere is putting the future
:28:10. > :28:11.of the EU in "grave danger", that was the stark warning
:28:12. > :28:13.from the French Prime Minister Tomorrow, EU interior ministers
:28:14. > :28:16.will discuss a possible two-year suspension of the Schengen system
:28:17. > :28:18.of passport-free travel. It all comes as David Cameron seeks
:28:19. > :28:21.to put the finishing touches to a new deal for the UK
:28:22. > :28:24.inside the EU before But how is the migrant crisis
:28:25. > :28:29.affecting his renegotiation? Since January 2015, nearly 1.1
:28:30. > :28:32.million migrants have arrived in Europe, the vast
:28:33. > :28:34.majority coming by sea. The International Monetary Fund
:28:35. > :28:38.estimates that nearly 4 million migrants will have reached
:28:39. > :28:44.the EU by the end of 2017. Tomorrow, EU interior ministers
:28:45. > :28:47.will discuss a possible suspension of the passport-free Schengen area
:28:48. > :28:49.and the re-introduction of border The EU is also considering tearing
:28:50. > :28:58.up the so-called Dublin Convention and introducing a new dispersal
:28:59. > :29:00.scheme to distribute migrants more It's an extra headache
:29:01. > :29:07.for David Cameron as he seeks to renegotiate the terms
:29:08. > :29:12.of our membership of the EU. The Prime Minister's preferred
:29:13. > :29:15.option is a four-year ban on new EU migrant workers claiming
:29:16. > :29:19.in-work benefits. But that's unlikely to satisfy many
:29:20. > :29:23.Conservative backbenchers. Former Cabinet minister Liam Fox,
:29:24. > :29:27.who has already said he will campaign to leave the EU,
:29:28. > :29:29.said yesterday that he "didn't expect a British prime minister
:29:30. > :29:33.to have to take the political begging bowl around the capitals
:29:34. > :29:36.of Europe just to change our own Over the next three weekends
:29:37. > :29:43.we will be staging three debates Joining me now to discuss
:29:44. > :29:48.immigration and the EU are the Ukip MEP Diane James, who's campaigning
:29:49. > :29:50.for Britain to leave the EU, and the Conservative MP
:29:51. > :30:07.Damian Green, who supports The French prime ministers as the
:30:08. > :30:13.future the EU is in grave danger, so why would we want to stay in it? --
:30:14. > :30:16.Prime Minister says. It is useful to as, it makes us safer and more
:30:17. > :30:20.secure and more prosperous and therefore it is worth saving, from
:30:21. > :30:26.our perspective and to the other member countries. Why does it make
:30:27. > :30:29.us more secure? The way that we cooperate with other European
:30:30. > :30:33.countries, the European institutions, things like the
:30:34. > :30:38.European arrest warrant, data share, these are very useful to our police
:30:39. > :30:42.and security services. We share data with the United States, as well. But
:30:43. > :30:47.not on the same automatic basis as we do with Europe. There is
:30:48. > :30:52.automatic sharing of intelligence between Britain and the United
:30:53. > :30:56.States. There is can we have a separate treaty with them, it is not
:30:57. > :31:00.as automatic and quick. -- there is, we have a separate treaty. We can
:31:01. > :31:08.change information within minutes with other European countries, and
:31:09. > :31:14.it takes days and weeks with other countries, and that means in cases
:31:15. > :31:18.of terrorism and sadly we live in a dangerous world, with global
:31:19. > :31:26.terrorism, that kind of European cooperation is increasingly
:31:27. > :31:29.important. Diane, we face a migration crisis, what is your
:31:30. > :31:36.solution, to turn Britain into a fortress Britain? No, it isn't, but
:31:37. > :31:41.it is to regain border control for the United Kingdom, and that is a
:31:42. > :31:45.position endorsed by a number of countries, and number of member
:31:46. > :31:49.states across the EU, you have five countries which every imposed border
:31:50. > :31:53.controls to some extent. There is still free movement of people.
:31:54. > :31:56.France said last week they will extend their border control, their
:31:57. > :32:00.passport control as an emergency measure because of the terrorist
:32:01. > :32:06.attacks in Paris. Border control is needed because under the current
:32:07. > :32:10.system freedom of movement, people, services, transport, that also means
:32:11. > :32:14.freedom of movement for terrorists and weapons, that come from the
:32:15. > :32:18.Balkan states. We don't have border controls? Yes, but not sufficient,
:32:19. > :32:23.if someone comes in from the Mediterranean states or from the
:32:24. > :32:28.Balkan states, they have gained entry into the European member zone.
:32:29. > :32:36.They can't then move around. If they get their passport, ultimately...
:32:37. > :32:40.That can take ten years. It is five years in Germany, it can be granted
:32:41. > :32:43.sooner if the Dublin agreement is changed and asylum seekers get a
:32:44. > :32:49.faster processing, they can then come to the United Kingdom. It is
:32:50. > :32:52.not five years in Germany, it is a comment if you have a criminal
:32:53. > :32:57.record, you can't get one, and the things that Niger Farage was saying
:32:58. > :33:04.about the scenes in Cologne, that was wrong. -- Nigel. The out
:33:05. > :33:08.campaign is saying that border controls are what we need, strong
:33:09. > :33:11.border controls, and pulling out of Europe would have the practical
:33:12. > :33:15.effect, our border controls which act have a, thanks to the treaty
:33:16. > :33:20.with the French government, they would certainly come back to Dover
:33:21. > :33:25.-- our border controls which we have at Calais. Migrants would find it
:33:26. > :33:30.much easier to get to this country and claim asylum here. But if they
:33:31. > :33:36.couldn't get in, they did not qualify, we would have the power to
:33:37. > :33:40.deport them? We were, after a legal process, but they would be stopped
:33:41. > :33:44.not at Calais, it would be at Dover, when they are in Britain, and once
:33:45. > :33:48.they are here they can claim asylum and because we have proper legal
:33:49. > :33:52.processes it takes a lot of time and expense to deal with that. He has
:33:53. > :33:57.all the accused me of getting my facts wrong, but he has got his
:33:58. > :34:00.facts wrong. The agreement in terms of stationing our teams and our
:34:01. > :34:05.support staff and control, in the French ports, that is a France UK
:34:06. > :34:08.agreement, it has nothing to do with the European Union. If you are
:34:09. > :34:15.suggesting that the agreement between France and the United
:34:16. > :34:17.Kingdom gets torn up because we leave the EU, that is fanciful and
:34:18. > :34:23.misleading and I don't agree with you. France signed the treatment
:34:24. > :34:27.with us as a fellow member of the EU and the French interior minister has
:34:28. > :34:30.said that they would look at the treaty, of course it would be at
:34:31. > :34:36.risk, do you think the people of Calais want that camp on their
:34:37. > :34:41.doorstep? Of course not. The French are doing us a favour. How would the
:34:42. > :34:47.renegotiation by the Prime Minister help address any of this? The area
:34:48. > :34:51.of renegotiation and this is about the extra pull factor that comes
:34:52. > :34:56.from the perception that the British benefits system is easier to access
:34:57. > :35:01.compared with other countries, and therefore there are people coming
:35:02. > :35:04.here simply to make the benefits system and I think what many people
:35:05. > :35:09.think about immigration, they are moral axed about people coming here
:35:10. > :35:13.to work and pay taxes but they don't like people coming to use the
:35:14. > :35:19.welfare system -- they are more relaxed. But it has been said this
:35:20. > :35:24.will not have a big impact, you might marginalise one pull factor,
:35:25. > :35:28.but with rises in the national minimum wage, you have increased the
:35:29. > :35:34.pull factor on the other hand. It's a boiler fairness, that is what --
:35:35. > :35:39.that is a boiler fairness, that is what people want... It is unlikely
:35:40. > :35:45.to have a big impact. This will have very little impact on the numbers. I
:35:46. > :35:49.think people can make a distinction between those who are coming here to
:35:50. > :35:55.work, who benefit our economy and benefit all of us. But we have
:35:56. > :35:57.agreed it is unlikely, even if it is fair, it is unlikely to have any
:35:58. > :36:05.impact on the numbers. We don't know. The OBR has had a good guess.
:36:06. > :36:10.They are guessing, it is a guess. Nigel Farage said he would cut
:36:11. > :36:15.immigration even if that meant lower economic growth, do you agree? There
:36:16. > :36:22.are two parts to your question, George Osborne has predicated his
:36:23. > :36:27.fiscal strategy on high numbers of immigration, but we have done this
:36:28. > :36:30.on individuals who come here on a points system to deliver real value
:36:31. > :36:36.to this country, who are not subsidised by the tax credit option
:36:37. > :36:40.and who actually meet the needs that we have in the United Kingdom, and
:36:41. > :36:45.currently, as we know, we want engineers and medics and nurses and
:36:46. > :36:48.lawyers. Ukip strategy has never been to stop those individuals
:36:49. > :36:54.coming, but what we are saying, the impact of low skilled immigration on
:36:55. > :37:00.this country is negative. That is our position. Even if it meant slow
:37:01. > :37:07.economic growth, you would still cut the numbers? It would not mean
:37:08. > :37:10.slower economic growth. We have made our position very clear in terms of
:37:11. > :37:17.the value of the money that we would not be paying in terms of membership
:37:18. > :37:20.of the EU, coming back to the United Kingdom's economy, and balancing the
:37:21. > :37:25.whole position, that would be a positive for us as a country. The
:37:26. > :37:30.Prime Minister has refused to leave a group of 40 Eurosceptic
:37:31. > :37:36.backbenchers in the Conservative Party, who want to asking to do much
:37:37. > :37:39.more. Should he not make them? The Prime Minister meets backbenchers
:37:40. > :37:43.all the time. He has not meant this group, they wrote to him in November
:37:44. > :37:49.and he has not met them. -- he has not met this group. Anyone who would
:37:50. > :37:52.like to meet the Prime Minister has ample opportunities to do so, I'm a
:37:53. > :37:57.backbencher, I can speak to the Prime Minister, and all of these
:37:58. > :38:02.points have been raised. It is possible that this story is slightly
:38:03. > :38:05.overblown. Thank you very much. We will be coming back to these stories
:38:06. > :38:07.in the weeks ahead. And next week we'll be debating
:38:08. > :38:10.the economic effects of leaving It's just gone 11.35,
:38:11. > :38:13.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:14. > :38:16.in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to
:38:17. > :38:27.the Sunday Politics Wales. The Welsh and UK governments
:38:28. > :38:34.are on another collision course. This time it's over
:38:35. > :38:38.new trade union laws. We have the first interview
:38:39. > :38:41.with the Education Minister since he announced his intention
:38:42. > :38:44.to stands down as an AM And it's 35 years since
:38:45. > :38:49.the SDP was formed. We talk with one man
:38:50. > :38:52.who was at the centre. There's another fight on the way
:38:53. > :38:55.between Wales and Westminster, The UK Government wants to tighten
:38:56. > :39:01.the ability of unions to call Ministers in Cardiff Bay oppose
:39:02. > :39:07.the move and say that power Bethan Lewis now on what's likely
:39:08. > :39:16.to be a messy scrap. It wouldn't be the first time that
:39:17. > :39:20.a dispute about who is in charge of what has ended up
:39:21. > :39:23.in a legal fight. The UK and Welsh Government went
:39:24. > :39:34.head to head in the Supreme Court. Last week, First
:39:35. > :39:36.Minister Carwyn Jones raised the possibility
:39:37. > :39:40.it could happen again. If it comes to the point where that
:39:41. > :39:43.bill is passed and its provisions are applied to devolved public
:39:44. > :39:46.services, then we will seek to introduce a bill in this chamber
:39:47. > :39:50.to overturn sections of the bill It's a matter for the UK Government
:39:51. > :39:57.as to whether they then wish to go to the Supreme Court
:39:58. > :39:59.in order to frustrate the will of this democratically
:40:00. > :40:02.elected Assembly. And this Trade Union Bill provokes
:40:03. > :40:06.strong passions on both sides. The Conservatives
:40:07. > :40:10.feel there should be tighter rules on unions'
:40:11. > :40:12.power to call strikes. The unions and Labour see it
:40:13. > :40:16.as an ideologically driven When it comes to strikes,
:40:17. > :40:21.the law, if it is passed, would allow employers to use agency
:40:22. > :40:26.workers to replace striking staff. 50% of a union's members would have
:40:27. > :40:30.to vote in a ballot calling 40% of those eligible
:40:31. > :40:35.to vote would have to support a strike to make it
:40:36. > :40:38.legal in key areas such The Welsh Government argues
:40:39. > :40:43.this would affect public sector employees in devolved areas
:40:44. > :40:47.and they say they will fight to overturn the measures
:40:48. > :40:51.if they are introduced. It's very clear that we have very
:40:52. > :40:56.strong relationships with trade unions in our public
:40:57. > :40:59.services in Wales. It is very clear to us that
:41:00. > :41:01.responsibility for the public services lies with the Welsh
:41:02. > :41:05.Government under the This is an intrusion
:41:06. > :41:10.into the devolution settlement I think they should now agree
:41:11. > :41:17.with us on the amendments we want to see to exclude Wales
:41:18. > :41:21.from the Trade Union Bill. I think that is a spurious argument
:41:22. > :41:24.because everybody knows that employment legislation is not
:41:25. > :41:28.devolved, end of story. I think we have to
:41:29. > :41:34.look at trade unions legislation across the world
:41:35. > :41:37.in that we have modernised ours and this is part of that
:41:38. > :41:39.modernisation to get the recognition to the individual
:41:40. > :41:43.member that their vote counts This week, the Assembly's
:41:44. > :41:48.likely to vote against giving the UK Parliament permission
:41:49. > :41:51.to pass the new law If, as expected, it's
:41:52. > :41:57.still brought the stage will be The Welsh Government
:41:58. > :42:02.will vote against granting consent to the UK
:42:03. > :42:05.Government and I know other parties I'm confident the Assembly will not
:42:06. > :42:11.give authority for the UK Government The UK Government may take the view
:42:12. > :42:18.that they are able to do so in which case, we will seek
:42:19. > :42:22.to reverse the effects of the bill in the next Assembly
:42:23. > :42:26.as the First Minister has said. If it is defeated in the Assembly
:42:27. > :42:32.all it is giving is the views of the National Assembly by
:42:33. > :42:37.majority, but as it is on a matter which the United Kingdom Government
:42:38. > :42:41.still believe we have any particular Do you think you'll be right
:42:42. > :42:50.to ignore the Assembly's Go back to the original
:42:51. > :42:53.position, employment legislation is not devolved
:42:54. > :42:56.to the National Assembly. Therefore, issuing
:42:57. > :42:59.an opinion on it As well as the constitutional
:43:00. > :43:05.clash, the Welsh Government and the wider Labour Party
:43:06. > :43:08.are fundamentally opposed to another At the moment union
:43:09. > :43:13.members opt out rather The government would reverse
:43:14. > :43:19.thatbut putting a huge debt in the Labour Party's
:43:20. > :43:22.offers as the party gets a substantial
:43:23. > :43:26.amounts from the unions. The House of Lords has raised
:43:27. > :43:29.concerns about that. In the meantime, the
:43:30. > :43:31.Welsh Government says a legal fight can be avoided
:43:32. > :43:35.if the UK Government listens. But at the moment it looks like both
:43:36. > :43:41.sides are standing firm. It's been just over a week
:43:42. > :43:46.since the surprising news that Huw Lewis, the Education Minister,
:43:47. > :43:50.would be stepping down as an AM It's a brief which will,
:43:51. > :43:55.no doubt, be central during the election
:43:56. > :43:57.campaign and afterwards. Well, in his first interview
:43:58. > :44:00.since his announcement I visited Huw Lewis in his
:44:01. > :44:03.Merthyr constituency. I asked him about standards in Welsh
:44:04. > :44:05.schools and underfunding The spend per pupil in Wales has
:44:06. > :44:12.been rising year on year. For the last year or so,
:44:13. > :44:15.it's been impossible to figure out actually
:44:16. > :44:19.what the spend is England. They have stopped collecting
:44:20. > :44:23.the statistics in the plain straightforward way
:44:24. > :44:25.we do here in Wales. The academy and free school system
:44:26. > :44:30.in England means there are wild variations in terms of spend
:44:31. > :44:34.between one school and another. With some schools
:44:35. > :44:37.being favoured simply because they fit with the
:44:38. > :44:41.government's political programme. Free schools, for instance,
:44:42. > :44:44.having money lavished upon them in areas where there is actually
:44:45. > :44:48.a surplus of school places. It is no way to run a system
:44:49. > :44:51.really if you are looking And yet they are still ahead
:44:52. > :44:57.when we look at the GCSE results. That was something this
:44:58. > :45:00.time last year you were suggesting maybe Wales
:45:01. > :45:03.would overtake England on some We very nearly did
:45:04. > :45:14.it by the way, we're talking about fractions now
:45:15. > :45:17.of percentage points when it comes What is very, very
:45:18. > :45:20.interesting about the last couple of years in GCSE results
:45:21. > :45:23.is, Wales's results just They are pretty much
:45:24. > :45:31.stagnant at the moment. It'll be very interesting
:45:32. > :45:34.to see how that plays out. So this year, do you want
:45:35. > :45:36.to make another forecast? Will it happen this
:45:37. > :45:38.year do you think? No, I think my successor
:45:39. > :45:41.will make that prediction. I'm confident, actually,
:45:42. > :45:45.we will see a further uplift. One thing that has
:45:46. > :45:49.been a major part of the policy side of education
:45:50. > :45:53.in Wales over the last few years has been the tuition fee
:45:54. > :45:55.grant where pupils and students in Wales only
:45:56. > :45:59.pay the first ?3500, Is it something you would
:46:00. > :46:08.like to see continue during the lifetime
:46:09. > :46:11.of the next Assembly? The central principle
:46:12. > :46:13.of it is something indispensable Essentially, what we have done
:46:14. > :46:19.in Wales is to continue to invest in the prospects of young
:46:20. > :46:22.people by supporting them through university, which I think
:46:23. > :46:27.should be the central principle that any reasonable
:46:28. > :46:30.government should stick to. It has meant that our young people
:46:31. > :46:35.now have ?22,000 less debt on average when they come through
:46:36. > :46:38.the end of their graduation year. It's being reviewed at the moment,
:46:39. > :46:41.we won't know until after the Assembly elections what that
:46:42. > :46:45.review will recommend. But do you think that
:46:46. > :46:48.principle of a student from Wales should be able to go
:46:49. > :46:51.anywhere in the UK and not have to worry about those
:46:52. > :46:53.additional fees, the ?5,500 you currently spent,
:46:54. > :46:57.should that remain? Yes, is very simple
:46:58. > :47:00.and definite answer to that. Again it comes down to the central
:47:01. > :47:04.principle, what are you primarily My argument would be,
:47:05. > :47:09.it is the life chances That takes primacy, even over
:47:10. > :47:17.the very real priorities that you need to address
:47:18. > :47:19.around institutions, The person comes first,
:47:20. > :47:24.the individual comes first and then, of course,
:47:25. > :47:28.we do reasonable and common sensical things to make sure
:47:29. > :47:31.we have a sustainable system. I'll have one last pop
:47:32. > :47:34.at this, for the manifesto, it will remain as it is,
:47:35. > :47:39.not as a universal element rather than something which
:47:40. > :47:42.will be means tested? Well, we will have to see
:47:43. > :47:44.what the manifesto will I think the central principle,
:47:45. > :47:48.as I say, needs to be, we will invest in your
:47:49. > :47:52.ambition as a young person. We will not curtail your ambition
:47:53. > :47:56.particularly when it If you really think you're
:47:57. > :48:01.best served across the border or in Scotland or Northern Ireland,
:48:02. > :48:03.that is OK. You talk about belt tightening
:48:04. > :48:09.in public services, something we have heard God
:48:10. > :48:12.knows how many times. As Education Minister,
:48:13. > :48:17.do you ever think, here we are once again in this year's budget,
:48:18. > :48:19.the health service getting Perhaps too much money goes
:48:20. > :48:24.into the health service when actually here you are trying
:48:25. > :48:27.to drive up standards for schools, trying to give us world
:48:28. > :48:31.leading higher education statements and having to take money out
:48:32. > :48:33.of your budget to put I think everybody, the settled
:48:34. > :48:39.will of the Welsh people would always be that the NHS
:48:40. > :48:43.is a top priority and needs to be So we have to meet the needs
:48:44. > :48:50.of the health service. But I am proud that we have seen
:48:51. > :48:54.an upward investment also in education, particularly
:48:55. > :48:59.in our schools despite the very difficult times we have
:49:00. > :49:04.been since 2008. How hard do you have
:49:05. > :49:07.to fight for the budget? Gives an insight into Cabinet now
:49:08. > :49:10.when different ministers are saying, I need this,
:49:11. > :49:13.that and the other. As Education Minister,
:49:14. > :49:15.how hard do you have to fight? We all make our
:49:16. > :49:17.argument and I try to put mine as best I can and fight
:49:18. > :49:20.forcefully for our priorities. You have to remember
:49:21. > :49:23.that you were talking about a Welsh Labour
:49:24. > :49:26.Cabinet with people And although there can
:49:27. > :49:35.be can be discussion, for sure, in the end everyone around
:49:36. > :49:39.that table wants to see good A decent standard of service
:49:40. > :49:45.delivery right across our communities and we are
:49:46. > :49:48.all as one on that. You are standing down
:49:49. > :49:51.in May at the elections, It's been a tremendous honour
:49:52. > :50:00.to represent the community To have served as Education
:50:01. > :50:06.Minister which in many I will always walk out
:50:07. > :50:10.a little taller, I suppose, But it is time for fresh
:50:11. > :50:17.horizons I think. Huw Lewis there starting a series
:50:18. > :50:24.of programmes here on BBC Wales on How Wales Works,
:50:25. > :50:28.starting with education. Tomorrow night, Lucy Owen looks
:50:29. > :50:32.into whether she should send her son to a Welsh or English-medium
:50:33. > :50:36.secondary school? Now, it was the party that was meant
:50:37. > :50:43.to break the mould of British 35 years ago tomorrow,
:50:44. > :50:48.the gang or four walked out of David Owen's house to say they'd
:50:49. > :50:53.walked out of the Labour Party. It had a phenomenal start
:50:54. > :50:55.but within a few years But what parallels, if any,
:50:56. > :50:58.are there with the arguments Will there be a new SDP anytime
:50:59. > :51:04.soon? In a moment, I'll be speaking
:51:05. > :51:09.to former Labour MP turned SDP now But first, Rhodri Lewis,
:51:10. > :51:14.a mere schoolboy at the time, May 1979, and it is all
:51:15. > :51:26.change in Downing Street. Cardiff's Sunny Jim Callaghan
:51:27. > :51:29.was out and the grocer's girl Where there is despair,
:51:30. > :51:34.may we bring hope. Meanwhile, the Labour
:51:35. > :51:37.Party was coming apart. Its conferences more about pantomime
:51:38. > :51:39.and punch-ups than policy. At Labour's special conference
:51:40. > :51:45.in Wembley today historic decisions The meeting in November
:51:46. > :51:50.1980 saw Michael Foot This was the final straw for many
:51:51. > :51:55.on the Labour right. Agonising, it was like divorcing
:51:56. > :51:58.once beloved husband. There was a lot of emotional
:51:59. > :52:04.pull in the whole thing. But once you've made your mind up it
:52:05. > :52:08.becomes different and becomes challenging, exciting,
:52:09. > :52:12.a test of your strength and a test # There comes a time
:52:13. > :52:20.for making your mind up. # And the Gang of Four did
:52:21. > :52:23.make their minds up. They decided to walk
:52:24. > :52:25.out of the Labour Party At the centre of it
:52:26. > :52:30.all, the former MP for Labour to begin with,
:52:31. > :52:34.he joined the fledgling The SDP scored a string
:52:35. > :52:39.of by-election successes in the days when canvassing through a car
:52:40. > :52:43.roof was still allowed. But the boy from Pontypool
:52:44. > :52:46.always had time Your life would be a living
:52:47. > :52:53.hypocrisy, and that's what's wring with Mr Healey and Mr Hattersley,
:52:54. > :52:56.when you advocate policies, major policies
:52:57. > :52:58.you don't believe in. Just a year after its launch
:52:59. > :53:02.the Falklands War happened and attention shifted
:53:03. > :53:04.to the south Atlantic. The result, the Tories got back
:53:05. > :53:09.in in 1983 with a huge majority and the SDP, well it got 25%
:53:10. > :53:14.of the vote but only a miserable Another of the Gang of Four
:53:15. > :53:19.with strong Welsh connection says the party failed because it
:53:20. > :53:23.needed time to develop. When you look at the electoral
:53:24. > :53:28.system, first past the post makes it very, very difficult
:53:29. > :53:32.for a party to create, start and in one fell
:53:33. > :53:35.swoop become government. That was, in my view,
:53:36. > :53:38.never possible. We had to build it up and we had
:53:39. > :53:42.to build it up by taking Labour votes, and we had to smash
:53:43. > :53:46.into labour in the '83 election because they deserved
:53:47. > :53:48.to be smashed into. The failure to do that
:53:49. > :53:56.was namby-pambyism. As Labour move to the right,
:53:57. > :54:00.the SDP saw its hour had passed and the party merged
:54:01. > :54:02.with the Liberals. Gwynoro still kept the flame burning
:54:03. > :54:05.back in Carmarthen under a new banner, happy to field
:54:06. > :54:11.questions about his change of party. One or two people have drawn
:54:12. > :54:14.attention to it but it hasn't been The reality is,
:54:15. > :54:17.Carmarthen has been well acquainted with that
:54:18. > :54:19.kind of politics before. Lady Megan Lloyd George switched
:54:20. > :54:23.from Liberal to Labour and that has always been my answer to some
:54:24. > :54:25.of the Labour people that we accepted someone
:54:26. > :54:29.from another party who served Quite frankly it's a nonissue
:54:30. > :54:32.because the broad mass of even Labour supporters well
:54:33. > :54:37.understand there is something fundamentally at fault
:54:38. > :54:40.with the Labour Party of today compared to the Labour Party
:54:41. > :54:42.of when I was last 35 years on, the parallels
:54:43. > :54:53.with the situation in today's Does the example of the SDP offer
:54:54. > :55:00.Labour way forward or is it a warning from history that voters
:55:01. > :55:24.don't like parties who can't even There we are, a trip down memory
:55:25. > :55:27.lane there. Gwynoro Jones, we heard Shirley Williams in that piece
:55:28. > :55:31.saying that walking out of the Labour Party was like leaving your
:55:32. > :55:34.family. How difficult was it for you?
:55:35. > :55:42.It wasn't easy. If you had it in a party for 20 years, even I was as a
:55:43. > :55:47.young man, to leave you thought often about it. It is easier for me
:55:48. > :55:53.because I lost that election. But I can imagine for them, the second
:55:54. > :55:59.half of the 1970s in Shadow Cabinet positions, indeed in government some
:56:00. > :56:05.of them, it was not easy at all. It is like leaving a family. You regard
:56:06. > :56:10.-- you are regarded as a traitor. The times I was called in the 1980s
:56:11. > :56:17.as a traitor. Similar Labour Party would think it was a treaty even
:56:18. > :56:22.today. We took a lot of time. Jenkins had gone to Brussels. He was
:56:23. > :56:26.ready to make the move. Shirley and David waited until the last moments
:56:27. > :56:30.because they were hoping the Labour Party would change in Europe, change
:56:31. > :56:37.on first past the post, change or nuclear weapons and they didn't.
:56:38. > :56:43.Then they went out. Roy Hattersley says in the film last week, what you
:56:44. > :56:46.should have done, the people who left, was stay within the party and
:56:47. > :56:55.tried to change things from within. Should you do that? Roy did that.
:56:56. > :56:57.Roy was one of Jenkins's people. Billy Sealey was the social
:56:58. > :57:04.Democrats commit he didn't come over. Cledwyn Hughes was a Democrat
:57:05. > :57:07.but he didn't come over. They were offended people who were a social
:57:08. > :57:13.democrat in the Labour Party. Only 35 made the jump. Why? Because of
:57:14. > :57:22.the previous question. It wasn't an easy thing to do for. They have been
:57:23. > :57:29.struggling for 20 years and enough was enough by 1980. One of the
:57:30. > :57:32.points that labelling of a treaty would be there was a belief in the
:57:33. > :57:37.Labour Party they lost the 90 23 election so money mentally because
:57:38. > :57:46.the SDP split the Labour vote. Is that a fair characterisation? That
:57:47. > :57:51.is true. The Alliance, the SDP Liberal Alliance had 25% of the
:57:52. > :57:56.vote. We almost came second within 1%. I maintain to this day if it
:57:57. > :57:59.hadn't been for the Falklands War the history of British politics in
:58:00. > :58:05.the 80s would have been completely different. Had it not been for the
:58:06. > :58:10.SDP, maybe Labour would have won in 1983 the stop possibly. We didn't
:58:11. > :58:17.help their cause. The question somebody had raised that we had
:58:18. > :58:23.failed, we didn't fail. Labour had to change. Neil Kinnock changes.
:58:24. > :58:29.Tony Blair, SDP Mark two. The SDP did not fail. When they are looking
:58:30. > :58:36.at 35 years tomorrow since the SDP was formed, are the parallels
:58:37. > :58:40.between the Labour Party at the end of the 70s and the Labour Party now,
:58:41. > :58:45.just to irresistible to ignore, do you think is Mac there are some
:58:46. > :58:52.parallels but they are different this user stop back then, it is the
:58:53. > :58:56.power of the trade unions, it is anti-Europe and a number of other
:58:57. > :59:00.things. The Labour Party isn't anti-Europe now, the power of the
:59:01. > :59:04.unions has gone because it is one member, one vote. It is about social
:59:05. > :59:10.policies, economic policies and that is one link, defence, Trident. It
:59:11. > :59:15.was there in the 1970s and 1980s and it is there now. But a social
:59:16. > :59:19.Democrats within the Labour Party will without question. The problem
:59:20. > :59:24.for them is they are not as well-known as Jenkins and a and
:59:25. > :59:31.Shirley Williams. They can't attract attention. There is those problems.
:59:32. > :59:35.-- David Owen. There is a rift within the left and right of the
:59:36. > :59:39.Labour Party and quite a lot of issues. It is coming to the service
:59:40. > :59:46.time and time again. Do you think that could lead to a similar
:59:47. > :59:52.breakaway group? Eventually, yes. Jeremy Corbyn and his people are in
:59:53. > :59:56.control and you can't deny that. He has got 60, 70% of the vote and he's
:59:57. > :00:00.entitled to be the leader. It is up to the others how they will cope
:00:01. > :00:04.with it, how they will live within that system. Are they going to be
:00:05. > :00:14.quiet? Are they going to say like the SDP did, we can cope with this.
:00:15. > :00:20.You see yourself as an outsider with the Labour Party, what would be your
:00:21. > :00:24.advice for anybody within Labour thinking, they are not happy with
:00:25. > :00:30.the direction of the party. I can't give them advice about what they
:00:31. > :00:33.should do. But I'll tell you one thing if we're talking about
:00:34. > :00:37.realignments, it's got to be about is used they would agree with the
:00:38. > :00:45.Liberal Democrats. Constitutional reform, Europe, the environment, a
:00:46. > :00:47.lot of this use. Not too interested in social Democrats on the right of
:00:48. > :00:53.the Labour Party who disagree with Jeremy Corbyn because he is an out
:00:54. > :00:58.and out left. They've got our principles they believe in. What do
:00:59. > :01:03.they believe in? The gang of four had clear principles. They had clear
:01:04. > :01:08.principles on Europe, the one member one vote, there were many clear
:01:09. > :01:09.things. The social Democrats and the Labour Party need to have that.
:01:10. > :01:11.Don't forget you follow all the latest on Twitter,
:01:12. > :01:15.But for now that's all from me, diolch am wylio,
:01:16. > :01:20.we will have Sadiq Khan, Labour's candidate in the hot seat, until
:01:21. > :01:27.then, back to you, Andrew. Can David Cameron keep his party
:01:28. > :01:30.together in the run-up Will the SNP stymie the PM's
:01:31. > :01:36.plans for a summer vote? And who will go along to
:01:37. > :01:53.John McDonnell's economics roadshow? Nick, Damian Green downplayed the 40
:01:54. > :01:59.Eurosceptics who have written to the Prime Minister, asking for a
:02:00. > :02:03.meeting. Is he right? Is there a serious division for the Tories? It
:02:04. > :02:06.was a very diplomatic response from Damian Green, but what Downing
:02:07. > :02:10.Street would say about the letter from John Barron, what is the point
:02:11. > :02:13.of meeting him and his 40 merry friends, because I want to get
:02:14. > :02:17.Britain out and they have always wanted to do so and the demands they
:02:18. > :02:21.are tabling in that letter, to have primacy of the UK Parliament over EU
:02:22. > :02:27.law is not in the negotiation and is not going to happen, but there is a
:02:28. > :02:30.port in point. David Cameron was dismissive of John Barron in the
:02:31. > :02:34.House of Commons and he needs to maybe occasionally show a bit more
:02:35. > :02:39.charm and listening to those kind of people. -- important point. They are
:02:40. > :02:42.on the other side of the prime Minster, but he has got to manage
:02:43. > :02:46.the process carefully and he needs to avoid a civil war, and he can
:02:47. > :02:52.avoid that if all sides are respected in this debate. Presumably
:02:53. > :02:58.the 40 that signed our hard-core Eurosceptic but there are more
:02:59. > :03:03.Eurosceptics. Even if David Cameron gets all of what he is asking for,
:03:04. > :03:08.how many Conservative MPs will still want to come out? Going back to the
:03:09. > :03:15.John Barenboim, the 40 that have signed that letter, Downing Street
:03:16. > :03:19.have put them to one side -- John Barron point. The battle for the
:03:20. > :03:29.party, what do you do with those, maybe a third of the party, that
:03:30. > :03:32.would be minded to leave, maybe 100-100 and 50 MPs, George Osborne
:03:33. > :03:35.was talking about emergency brakes on legislation, if things are coming
:03:36. > :03:41.through from Brussels which the British don't want. They still think
:03:42. > :03:45.that the negotiation really is in play and what we have to do is try
:03:46. > :03:51.and pick off moderate Eurosceptics and give them a package which they
:03:52. > :03:54.can get behind and then we need to accept that there will be 40
:03:55. > :03:59.hard-core people that we could never placate. In the David Cameron
:04:00. > :04:03.nightmare, that is the potential backdrop to the referendum, the
:04:04. > :04:08.French Prime Minister has said Europe is in grave danger and we
:04:09. > :04:12.have had President task of the council say that we have only got a
:04:13. > :04:16.couple of months to sort out the immigration issue -- Donald Tusk.
:04:17. > :04:21.The Dutch Prime Minister has given warnings, as well. If there's a
:04:22. > :04:25.sense that Europe is falling especially regarding migration,
:04:26. > :04:30.Schengen is swept away, as it might be tomorrow, that is not a way to
:04:31. > :04:34.win a referendum. It is a huge advantage for the Brexit campaign
:04:35. > :04:38.and it distinguishes them from their predecessors of 20 years ago,
:04:39. > :04:42.leaving the EU back then was seen as a pessimistic thing to do, but now
:04:43. > :04:46.you can almost support Brexit because you think, why chain
:04:47. > :04:52.yourself to a continent which is losing, when there's so much
:04:53. > :04:55.dynamism in the world elsewhere? The characteristic of the Brexit
:04:56. > :04:58.campaign is the challenge David Cameron has got to summer, it cannot
:04:59. > :05:05.say they are entirely insular any more. -- has got to surmount. I
:05:06. > :05:12.thought the internal Tory problem with the explosive, if not a big
:05:13. > :05:15.split, but like a rolling crisis from the 1990s, but I no longer
:05:16. > :05:19.think that is true, the fact they know they can expect to be in
:05:20. > :05:24.government until at least 2025, they can maintain basic adhesion because
:05:25. > :05:30.of the weakness of the Labour Party and that is a contrast with the 90s
:05:31. > :05:34.-- basic cohesion. Cameron will look like he is losing control, but there
:05:35. > :05:40.will not be anything existential going on for the party. We believe
:05:41. > :05:44.the government is anxious to get it out of the way by the end of June,
:05:45. > :05:48.may be the first week of July. Nicola Sturgeon said some
:05:49. > :05:56.interesting things on the Andrew Marr show, about the timetable for
:05:57. > :05:59.the referendum. We had a negative feeling campaign from the no
:06:00. > :06:04.campaign and they almost lost, in the referendum for Europe, the
:06:05. > :06:08.campaigns are much closer to start with, and if the in campaign falls
:06:09. > :06:15.into the trap of the no campaign I fear it will lose. Nicola Sturgeon
:06:16. > :06:21.has said that she does not want a June referendum and she feels that
:06:22. > :06:24.is too soon. You can say, that is the view of the First Minister, she
:06:25. > :06:30.doesn't have a vote in parliament, but it have more significance. I was
:06:31. > :06:36.briefed last week by senior Scottish Nationalist who said this, "Many
:06:37. > :06:43.conservatives will not want a June referendum and the risk epics want
:06:44. > :06:49.more time to layout their case -- Eurosceptics want more time to
:06:50. > :06:57.layout their case". The Scottish Nationalists will not help to vote
:06:58. > :07:01.by voting for a June referendum. The SNP could try and turn this into a
:07:02. > :07:05.vote in the house and then it depends on what Labour do, do they
:07:06. > :07:09.want to have it in June or later? I think the Eurosceptics are so
:07:10. > :07:16.focused on trying to get this referendum through, I don't think
:07:17. > :07:20.them as long as they feel they have the campaign in time that they want,
:07:21. > :07:27.the four-month period, I think they will go for it. I'm not sure that is
:07:28. > :07:32.true. Given the divisions in the Eurosceptics side at the moment, and
:07:33. > :07:37.the out campaign, I think they need longer to get there ducks in a row
:07:38. > :07:44.and they feel the best time for them to fight is after there has been
:07:45. > :07:47.another major migration crisis in the summer, people will not on their
:07:48. > :07:56.side of the ardent when that happens. That might be true. -- of
:07:57. > :08:01.the argument. But they cannot argue for a delay in some ways, but I do
:08:02. > :08:04.feel that Nicola Sturgeon's intervention is significant and the
:08:05. > :08:07.pressure on the Prime Minister to listen to what she is saying, will
:08:08. > :08:10.not so much come in parliament, it could come from the electoral
:08:11. > :08:14.commission, which has already said they cannot have the referendum in
:08:15. > :08:20.May as the same time as the devolved elections, and if you have Nicola
:08:21. > :08:23.Sturgeon, Arlene Foster, the First Minister of Northern Ireland, and
:08:24. > :08:27.Karen Jones can be First Minister of Wales Coulibaly said they think this
:08:28. > :08:32.is over complicating -- First Minister of Wales, if they all said
:08:33. > :08:37.they think this is over, catering, because it would happen at the same
:08:38. > :08:41.time as the devolved elections -- if they all said this is
:08:42. > :08:46.overcompensated. That would be significant, we could be bouncing
:08:47. > :08:50.into September. They have said they do not want the overlap, there
:08:51. > :08:54.should be a clear gap between the referendum campaign and the local
:08:55. > :09:01.elections, the assembly come and the Parliamentary elections in Scotland.
:09:02. > :09:03.They have a low view of the ability of the electorate to distinguish
:09:04. > :09:12.between elections, I do think Nicolas -- Nicola Sturgeon is an
:09:13. > :09:17.obstacle, but the biggest obstacle will be David Cameron and what he
:09:18. > :09:24.can get from the EU. You don't think it will be a done deal pretty much
:09:25. > :09:30.they are putting a lot of weight white -- you don't think it will be
:09:31. > :09:33.a done deal? They are putting a lot of weight on one summit, but the
:09:34. > :09:38.next summit that matters, it only takes one delay for us to move
:09:39. > :09:41.beyond June and then into September. I thought 2017 would be more likely,
:09:42. > :09:53.I have slightly revised that view, but I don't think June is possible.
:09:54. > :10:01.We have leave, and several out campaigns, and we have got one which
:10:02. > :10:06.is called grassroots out. Liam Fox, Conservative, Nigel Farage, Kate
:10:07. > :10:13.Hoey from Labour was there, it was launched yesterday. At some stage
:10:14. > :10:16.they have got to consult them if they want to be serious and marshal
:10:17. > :10:22.their resources, they have got to have a single campaign? And by law
:10:23. > :10:27.they have got through, the electoral commission is going to have two
:10:28. > :10:31.designate a campaign on either side. It is pretty clear that the inside
:10:32. > :10:34.are coalescing around the Britain stronger in Europe group, but on the
:10:35. > :10:37.outside there is not that agreement and there is feuding between these
:10:38. > :10:41.groups and they're going to have to reach agreement. The problem they
:10:42. > :10:45.have, who is going to lead them? Nigel Lawson is a key figure and he
:10:46. > :10:49.says they will get a senior Cabinet minister, but I said the most senior
:10:50. > :10:53.Cabinet minister who will go for Brexit, in Duncan Smith, do his own
:10:54. > :11:00.thing, which leaves you with Chris Grayling -- Iain Duncan Smith. And
:11:01. > :11:07.also Theresa Villiers. They will go up against the leader of the in
:11:08. > :11:11.campaign who is someone called David Cameron, and so they really do need
:11:12. > :11:20.to get unity. Vote Labour say they are more grown-up, -- vote leave say
:11:21. > :11:24.they are more grown-up, for example. Some are said to me the other day
:11:25. > :11:30.that Chris Grayling's view is that many senior figures in the party
:11:31. > :11:33.should be voices. In other words he was suggesting he did not want to
:11:34. > :11:36.leave and they would not be one senior Cabinet minister that was
:11:37. > :11:39.going to champion it which gives them another problem. The
:11:40. > :11:47.organisational, factional differences make much less
:11:48. > :11:50.difference in who you have as your voice, it could be a very prominent
:11:51. > :11:59.businessperson, for example, the head of a major company. Who knows
:12:00. > :12:02.how to bend opinion. That is not true of many business people. They
:12:03. > :12:08.could talk about the economic risk. The state in campaign was launched
:12:09. > :12:18.by Stuart Rose. And it was a disaster. It was a disastrous launch
:12:19. > :12:25.will stop you going to John McDonnell's economic seminar? I'm
:12:26. > :12:29.washing my hair. He was to get out of the -- he says he would like to
:12:30. > :12:36.get out of the Westminster bubble, he has only got to the West End, but
:12:37. > :12:41.he has got out there. You don't want to come? There are many people
:12:42. > :12:45.worried about Jeremy Corbyn's leadership in the Labour Party, but
:12:46. > :12:48.they are encouraged about the seminars, the economics panel, he
:12:49. > :12:55.has got an incredibly serious group of people, is opening up these
:12:56. > :12:59.seminars and they are encouraged. There was a good piece in the Sunday
:13:00. > :13:02.Times about whether there is a good deal with Google and whether this is
:13:03. > :13:09.such a good deal for the British taxpayer. I can feel I'm going to be
:13:10. > :13:12.on my own. Anyway, it has sold out, there is no room for you.
:13:13. > :13:16.Jo Coburn will be back with the Daily Politics
:13:17. > :13:21.And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday
:13:22. > :13:32.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.