:00:37. > :00:40.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.George Osborne called it a "major success".
:00:44. > :00:46.Google say they're paying what's due.
:00:47. > :00:48.But Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell's not impressed -
:00:49. > :00:51.we'll ask him how he'd get big business to pay more tax.
:00:52. > :00:57.David Cameron says he wants an emergency brake on access
:00:58. > :01:01.to welfare benefits for EU migrants to be applied immediately
:01:02. > :01:07.But will that be enough for the PM to clinch a deal and head
:01:08. > :01:15.And will it be best for business if we stay in or we get out?
:01:16. > :01:18.Later in the programme, as the debate over the UK's
:01:19. > :01:20.relationship with the EU intensifies, what's best or Wales?
:01:21. > :01:32.The Secretary of State gives us his view.
:01:33. > :01:35.And taking time out from their protracted negotiations
:01:36. > :01:37.with Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs over how much tax
:01:38. > :01:43.they should pay on their enormous fees - the best and the brightest
:01:44. > :01:45.political panel in the business - Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee
:01:46. > :01:51.and Janan Ganesh who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:52. > :01:53.First this morning, George Osborne hailed Google's back tax bill
:01:54. > :02:00.Since then the settlement's been condemned as too lenient by -
:02:01. > :02:02.among others - Boris Johnson, The Sun, Rupert Murdoch
:02:03. > :02:05.and the Labour Party, which has accused the Chancellor
:02:06. > :02:08.of offering the internet giant "mates' rates".
:02:09. > :02:11.In a moment, I'll be talking to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.
:02:12. > :02:14.First here's Google executive, Peter Barron, defending the company
:02:15. > :02:19.on the Andrew Marr Show this morning.
:02:20. > :02:23.What I would say is that in the UK we pay corporation tax at 20%.
:02:24. > :02:27.It's absolutely the same corporation tax rate as everybody else,
:02:28. > :02:35.Yes, but you keep coming back to this point about sales.
:02:36. > :02:37.We are taxed as corporation tax dictates on the activities,
:02:38. > :02:40.the economic activities of Google UK.
:02:41. > :02:43.So, we pay corporation tax in the UK at 20%,
:02:44. > :02:50.and, actually, globally, our effective tax rate over the last
:02:51. > :02:54.five years or so is round about 20%, which is very close to the UK rate,
:02:55. > :03:01.And I'm joined now by the Shadow Chancellor,
:03:02. > :03:14.Welcome. What single step would you take to make sure that companies
:03:15. > :03:20.like Google, Apple, Amazon, pay a fair and appropriate level of tax?
:03:21. > :03:24.Openness and transparency. I want the information about how this deal
:03:25. > :03:31.has been arrived at and I want them to publish in the future there tax
:03:32. > :03:36.records. So that we can have openness and transparency, see what
:03:37. > :03:39.is fair. The Chancellor said this was a major success. But we cannot
:03:40. > :03:46.tell because we have not got the information. Would you extend that
:03:47. > :03:51.to British major companies publishing their tax? Six out of ten
:03:52. > :03:57.of the UK's biggest companies are not paying any corporation tax. Yes,
:03:58. > :04:01.I would. The suggestion has been put forward about the FTSE 100. That is
:04:02. > :04:08.a good idea. There would be no commercial disadvantage. Do you
:04:09. > :04:14.think that transparency would be a major step forward? It is one step
:04:15. > :04:17.forward. We want country by country reporting as well. I supported
:04:18. > :04:23.George Osborne on as negotiations in Europe with that. We're not going to
:04:24. > :04:28.get enough. I found quite angry making this morning that we have
:04:29. > :04:31.allegation -- allegations that their Conservatives were voting their MEPs
:04:32. > :04:37.to vote against this. I find that frustrating. I want HMRC to be
:04:38. > :04:42.properly resourced so they can do the job. There are too many job
:04:43. > :04:45.cuts. We have lost too much expertise. There is time now to
:04:46. > :04:54.start thinking about how we review our tax system. The Treasury select
:04:55. > :04:59.committee has undertaken a review. Corporation tax is levied on
:05:00. > :05:02.profits. Even if you got your transparency, you would quickly find
:05:03. > :05:07.that the concept of profits that can be moved around geographically, they
:05:08. > :05:13.can be manipulated depending on costs, would you consider replacing
:05:14. > :05:17.corporation tax with, for example, a tax on corporate sales? Revenues are
:05:18. > :05:21.less malleable than profits. That is one of the issues to be addressed.
:05:22. > :05:28.Nigel Lawson has done an article to that effect. One of the most
:05:29. > :05:31.important things is to secure international agreement. We cannot
:05:32. > :05:35.have the situation where companies are shopping around the world to
:05:36. > :05:39.find the lowest tax regime and inventing company structures to
:05:40. > :05:44.enable that to happen. But if you had a tax on the revenues, it would
:05:45. > :05:49.not happen what they moved around. Revenues are revenues. You would
:05:50. > :05:55.levy a tax on the revenues in the UK. That is why it is worth looking
:05:56. > :06:00.at. It might be a combination of that and economic activity as well.
:06:01. > :06:04.One professor said if you raise corporate taxes too high, companies
:06:05. > :06:10.may move to island macro or elsewhere. Do you accept there has
:06:11. > :06:14.to be a limit? There has to be a limit, there has to be some
:06:15. > :06:17.reasonableness. If we can get international cooperation, you can
:06:18. > :06:22.avoid this development of virtual tax havens taking place. Would you
:06:23. > :06:28.want a common rate of corporation tax? Not necessarily. You would like
:06:29. > :06:31.to make sure that what you charge is reasonable and fair and you would
:06:32. > :06:37.expect those companies to abide by that. I listened to the Google
:06:38. > :06:41.representative this morning. The reputational damage to Google is
:06:42. > :06:46.immense. The savings they have made in taxes not worth the reputational
:06:47. > :06:56.damage. Let's move on to the other big issue, Europe. And membership.
:06:57. > :07:05.How did you vote in the 1975 referendum? Against. In the 1983
:07:06. > :07:07.Labour manifesto it claimed that a commitment to radical socialist
:07:08. > :07:14.policies was incompatible with membership of the European Union. It
:07:15. > :07:19.proposed withdrawal. Did you agree with that at the time? I did at the
:07:20. > :07:29.time. That is long gone. We're within Europe. We are working within
:07:30. > :07:30.Europe with other parties to see how we can make Europe fair,
:07:31. > :07:34.particularly with regard to the rights of workers. Take this tax
:07:35. > :07:47.issue. We need to be in Europe to ensure we can secure fair agreement
:07:48. > :07:50.on tax. That is why, by remaining within, we have got to remain within
:07:51. > :07:55.with their own reform agenda, that is one of the issues we need to
:07:56. > :07:59.reform. To take that phrase radical socialist policies, you are
:08:00. > :08:07.committed to radical socialist policies. How is that now compatible
:08:08. > :08:11.with remaining in the EU when it was not in 1983? Because we have
:08:12. > :08:16.demonstrated with the work we have undertaken within the EU that we
:08:17. > :08:19.have secured some benefits. Employment rights. In addition,
:08:20. > :08:23.there are real opportunities now where we can work with others to
:08:24. > :08:27.secure that radical change. Withdrawal from Europe at the moment
:08:28. > :08:31.would not be beneficial. It would lose jobs. It would undermine the
:08:32. > :08:34.benefits we have gained in terms of employment. That is why we want to
:08:35. > :08:39.work to reform it. The issue that I have got with the Prime Minister, we
:08:40. > :08:46.will see what he comes back with... On the social Europe issue, you want
:08:47. > :08:49.a more social Europe. In France you have got a socialist government that
:08:50. > :08:56.has moved to the right. In Germany, a centre-right government. Other
:08:57. > :09:00.countries have either the hard right in power or the hard right at the
:09:01. > :09:05.top of the polls. Where is your social Europe in that? That is why
:09:06. > :09:12.we will work with socialist and social Democrats. I think you will
:09:13. > :09:16.see in the coming years that a wider debate is taking place. In some way
:09:17. > :09:21.the referendum debate will enable us to then look at those ideas.
:09:22. > :09:27.Wouldn't it be fair to say that like Jeremy Corbyn, you are pretty
:09:28. > :09:33.lukewarm about our membership of the European Union? I signed up to
:09:34. > :09:40.remain within the EU. That does not mean to say that we accepted as a
:09:41. > :09:45.perfect institution. We want to see reform. I come back to the tax
:09:46. > :09:48.issue. Unless we get international cooperation, particularly across
:09:49. > :09:56.Europe, we will not solve this problem. You have got a Eurosceptic
:09:57. > :10:00.track record. Kate Hoey, a leader -- leading Labour Eurosceptic, she said
:10:01. > :10:06.that you and Jeremy Corbyn consistently voted with Eurosceptic
:10:07. > :10:09.MPs on the EU. That is true, isn't it? On a number of issues, because
:10:10. > :10:13.we were frustrated with the slow pace of reform. That does not mean
:10:14. > :10:20.we are in favour of coming out. It is better to argue from within to
:10:21. > :10:23.secure a commonality of agreement. Do you broadly support the changes
:10:24. > :10:28.that David Cameron is trying to renegotiate? I don't know what they
:10:29. > :10:33.are yet. Let's see what he comes back with. My fear is if he does not
:10:34. > :10:38.treat this issue seriously and it is just about party management, he
:10:39. > :10:42.could blow it. We could be outside of Europe and have the economic
:10:43. > :10:47.penalties as a result. Even if he comes back with something you do not
:10:48. > :10:54.regard as satisfactory, you will campaign to stay in? We will
:10:55. > :10:57.campaign for our own agenda. The government wants to get this done by
:10:58. > :11:04.the end of June. Will you cooperate with that timetable? We will see
:11:05. > :11:08.what he comes back with. Let's have it as soon as possible. We want the
:11:09. > :11:12.debate to take place. Delaying it would not help. We want the debate
:11:13. > :11:18.to start now. It would be better for him to come back fairly soon. Get
:11:19. > :11:23.the debate going. Even if the campaign overlaps with important
:11:24. > :11:27.elections in Scotland, England, Northern Ireland, Wales? That is the
:11:28. > :11:31.problem but it will overlap with something. Immigration is good to be
:11:32. > :11:36.a huge issue. The IMF says that almost 4 million immigrants will
:11:37. > :11:43.arrive in the EU between 2015 and 2017. Almost 4 million. Should
:11:44. > :11:47.Britain take a fair share of that? I think is important we cooperate with
:11:48. > :11:51.our European partners to make that we can accommodate those that need
:11:52. > :11:55.to come to this country. In addition, that we have systems in
:11:56. > :12:01.place that protect wages, so that immigration is not used to undermine
:12:02. > :12:04.wages. But should we take a fair share of the 4 million? I think we
:12:05. > :12:10.should. We should cooperate with others and carry the burden. The
:12:11. > :12:15.majority of Britons want us to rise to it and ensure we assist others
:12:16. > :12:18.and that others are not suffering, and that we do not stand on one side
:12:19. > :12:27.when people suffer. Could you give an indication of how many? Young not
:12:28. > :12:31.at this stage. That would be a matter to negotiate with our
:12:32. > :12:37.European partners. Should we volunteered to be part of the EU
:12:38. > :12:41.quotas system? Mrs Merkel and others want 160,000 to be relocated through
:12:42. > :12:48.Schengen. Should we be part of Schengen? Should we be part of the
:12:49. > :12:53.160,000? We should be doing more in terms of assisting refugees coming
:12:54. > :12:57.from Syria. We should be doing more to help those in desperate need.
:12:58. > :13:02.People are drowning in the Mediterranean. We cannot stand
:13:03. > :13:06.aside. This country has a history of receiving refugees. People watching
:13:07. > :13:11.this would want some sort of idea of numbers because numbers are
:13:12. > :13:16.important. It is important. That is why we need to get into these
:13:17. > :13:21.negotiations quickly and come back with practical proposals. In 2013
:13:22. > :13:27.you told a gathering of the people's assembly at a rally on immigration
:13:28. > :13:33.that they should be open borders? I was arguing then... There was
:13:34. > :13:36.re-search looking at the long-term structure of the globe. Inevitably
:13:37. > :13:40.in this century we will have open borders. The movement of peoples
:13:41. > :13:43.across the globe will mean that borders will almost become
:13:44. > :13:49.irrelevant by the end of the century. We should be preparing for
:13:50. > :13:54.that and explaining why people move. Conflicts, poverty and destitution,
:13:55. > :13:58.and also climate change. In our policy-making we should be working
:13:59. > :14:02.now to see how we address that. It will mean that we need to look at
:14:03. > :14:07.how we resolve conflicts, how we make the world more equal and also
:14:08. > :14:11.how we tackle climate change. In that way we can deal with the
:14:12. > :14:16.reality of the world, which means that people are not forced to move
:14:17. > :14:21.but there will be movement. Total open borders? At the end of this
:14:22. > :14:25.century that is what will occur. People are ignoring borders already
:14:26. > :14:28.as they fly from Syria. We should be making sure that if there is no
:14:29. > :14:35.forced movement, we look at the push and pull factors. Conflict
:14:36. > :14:39.prevention, the tackling of inequality and policies that tackle
:14:40. > :14:45.climate change. In that way we can cope with the global pressures with
:14:46. > :14:50.regard to population movement. To do that, for a Labour government to
:14:51. > :14:54.prepare for that, would be loosening controls as you move towards that?
:14:55. > :15:00.No. What I am saying is if you look at the analysis of what is happening
:15:01. > :15:04.over the next 75 years, the movement of people is such that borders are
:15:05. > :15:07.very difficult to maintain. That will happen by the end of the
:15:08. > :15:12.century. We should be opening up the debate of how we handle that. One of
:15:13. > :15:16.the issues we have to tackle is why people are moving. It is about
:15:17. > :15:20.conflict and climate change. It is about poverty as well. That means
:15:21. > :15:25.greater equality not just in our country but across the globe. I
:15:26. > :15:30.wanted to talk to you about Google and the EU. I hope you will come
:15:31. > :15:38.back and give me an interview on economic policy. Let me finish with
:15:39. > :15:42.a taster? Back to Professor Blanchflower, he said about you and
:15:43. > :15:47.Mr Corbyn that you have to accept the realities of capitalism and
:15:48. > :15:52.modern markets, like it or not. No more silly stuff about companies not
:15:53. > :15:59.being able to pay dividends if they do not do X or Y. Do you accept
:16:00. > :16:04.that? That is why I appointed him as an advisor. I wanted objective
:16:05. > :16:05.advice. I have established the architecture for the future
:16:06. > :16:17.development of economic policy. Are you going to accept his advice
:16:18. > :16:21.on that? We will listen to his advice and take it on board. But we
:16:22. > :16:27.will also listen to other advisers. But those advisers, what's the point
:16:28. > :16:31.of them if you will not listen? We will test every policy we put
:16:32. > :16:35.forward. On that one, we are hoping that we would avoid any need for
:16:36. > :16:40.that by introducing as we come into covenant a real living wage. In the
:16:41. > :16:43.meantime, we want to campaign with shareholders so they pressurise
:16:44. > :16:47.their companies to abide by a real living wage. I think there is an
:16:48. > :16:51.alliance to be built there. Is it party policy that if companies don't
:16:52. > :16:54.pay what you regard as a living wage, until it's made mandatory,
:16:55. > :17:01.that they shouldn't be allowed to pay dividends? it's one of ideas we
:17:02. > :17:06.have floated for discussion. We have put it to the economic advisers to
:17:07. > :17:10.get their view. Angela Eagle said it's unworkable. That's why it's
:17:11. > :17:14.open for discussion. It's a really good campaigning tool for us to work
:17:15. > :17:17.with shareholders to make sure they exert their influence to ensure
:17:18. > :17:21.their companies, on things like the living wage and paying their taxes
:17:22. > :17:25.as well, to make sure their companies are acting appropriately.
:17:26. > :17:26.John McDonnell, I hope you come back to continue the debate with us. I
:17:27. > :17:30.certainly well. So, David Cameron once dismissed
:17:31. > :17:32.the idea of an emergency This morning, Downing Street
:17:33. > :17:35.is indicating that a brake on welfare benefits for EU
:17:36. > :17:38.migrants might be acceptable if it was applied immediately,
:17:39. > :17:40.but only as a stop-gap measure. This evening, the Prime Minister
:17:41. > :17:44.meets EU Council President Donald Tusk as he tries to broker a deal
:17:45. > :17:50.ahead of a crunch summit of European leaders next month -
:17:51. > :17:54.but will the fractious leave campaigns be in any position to take
:17:55. > :17:57.advantage if he's seen to fail? Right now the future of Britain
:17:58. > :18:04.inside or outside the European Union You might think it started here
:18:05. > :18:13.in Brussels, or that the media's massed ranks are awaiting
:18:14. > :18:17.the outcome in the European Parliament in Strasbourg,
:18:18. > :18:20.or that we are hovering with baited breath for a decision
:18:21. > :18:23.in our own Parliament, but no. This week the decision was made
:18:24. > :18:28.in Havering, in Essex. In this chamber right now,
:18:29. > :18:31.Havering councillors are debating If they do, of course nothing
:18:32. > :18:38.will change, because the smart among you know, no council,
:18:39. > :18:40.not even the British Parliament, Nevertheless Havering Council
:18:41. > :18:48.deliberately didn't deliberate on the leisure centre
:18:49. > :18:53.or meals on wheels. However the Prime Minister meanwhile
:18:54. > :18:56.was hurrying for a deal on wheels - not with councillors,
:18:57. > :19:06.but with 27 EU member states. It's his plan to block in-work
:19:07. > :19:09.benefits for EU migrants for four years that's getting
:19:10. > :19:10.the bumpiest ride. The EU counter proposal
:19:11. > :19:13.of an an "emergency brake" on access to benefits - if a country can prove
:19:14. > :19:16.it's welfare system's under strain - has not gone down well
:19:17. > :19:18.with Eurosceptics back home. They are saying we are
:19:19. > :19:26.allowed to go to Brussels, and ask their permission
:19:27. > :19:28.to change the benefit rules, David Cameron still wants that
:19:29. > :19:35.benefit ban, and knows accepting the emergency brake as is would only
:19:36. > :19:39.accelerate any campaign to leave. We want to end the idea
:19:40. > :19:42.of something for nothing. It's not good enough,
:19:43. > :19:48.it needs more work, I believe we've got to put
:19:49. > :19:55.country before party, country before personality, vote
:19:56. > :19:57.for freedom, and vote for leave. In Havering they aren't waiting
:19:58. > :20:02.for a date or a settlement. The Prime Minster knows Brexit
:20:03. > :20:05.supporters are eyeing his own Cabinet to see who might be tempted
:20:06. > :20:08.do the same. Michael Gove might come
:20:09. > :20:12.out for leave. Boris Johnson, though
:20:13. > :20:18.it's rather doubtful, might just possibly come out
:20:19. > :20:21.for leave, to vote for leave. Theresa May, who almost
:20:22. > :20:22.certainly is preoccupied And finally, Sajid Javid,
:20:23. > :20:27.the Business Secretary, who has the most
:20:28. > :20:31.Eurosceptic record of all. But it's very difficult,
:20:32. > :20:33.when you are a government minister, and you've got real feelings
:20:34. > :20:36.of loyalty to your party and your Prime Minister,
:20:37. > :20:40.to depart from the line. And a lot of pressure,
:20:41. > :20:43.moral pressure, if you like, A Havering Borough MP thinks that
:20:44. > :20:53.kind of pressure is wrong. I think that this is a decision
:20:54. > :20:56.that we all have to make And it shouldn't impede
:20:57. > :21:01.on people's political careers. People should be able
:21:02. > :21:04.to make up their own minds, and not worry about whether they are
:21:05. > :21:07.going to be sidelined or punished Those who do out themselves for out,
:21:08. > :21:12.will need campaign wizards who can Which, of two battling groups,
:21:13. > :21:19.that is yet undecided, but so far both have seen a bad
:21:20. > :21:24.spell of personality clashes and darkening moods way over
:21:25. > :21:26.the heads of most grassroots The chance of winning over
:21:27. > :21:30.undeclared MPs is the magic What we did discover,
:21:31. > :21:40.it's like the dementors slowly sucking the people up out
:21:41. > :21:44.of the air, body I do think that there will be
:21:45. > :21:48.a coming together now, probably for very good reasons,
:21:49. > :21:50.there have been divisions But I think this campaign will not
:21:51. > :21:54.be just politicians. It's about the people
:21:55. > :21:56.versus the elite in many ways. In fact, you have a referendum
:21:57. > :21:59.really in many ways when politicians Meanwhile back in Havering...
:22:00. > :22:02.is they want to do. party motion is therefore
:22:03. > :22:07.carried by 30 votes to 15. So, councillors in Havering have
:22:08. > :22:12.voted for a motion that says Now, there are plenty of councillors
:22:13. > :22:20.who said they don't have any business debating this,
:22:21. > :22:22.they have far more important things But what it might show
:22:23. > :22:27.is that for some people - and in this case,
:22:28. > :22:29.an official elected body - never mind what the date is,
:22:30. > :22:33.and never mind the renegotiation, they would like to make
:22:34. > :22:41.clear their views right now. I'm joined now by the Conservative
:22:42. > :22:43.MP, Steve Baker, co-chairman of Conservatives for Britain
:22:44. > :22:54.and a director of the Vote Leave If the Prime Minister can get an
:22:55. > :22:58.agreement that there will be a break in welfare payments for migrants the
:22:59. > :23:03.day after the referendum, isn't that a powerful thing to take to the
:23:04. > :23:07.country? It's not powerful at all. Bernard Jenkin is the Conservative
:23:08. > :23:10.director of Vote Leave, but we have been told by the OBR that it
:23:11. > :23:14.wouldn't make much difference even if the Prime Minister got this
:23:15. > :23:18.break. They would only take one case brought forward by activist lawyers,
:23:19. > :23:22.and we would expect the European Court of Justice to strike down such
:23:23. > :23:27.a measure. We think it's a red herring, and as John Redwood said, a
:23:28. > :23:30.bad joke. They have ended up trying to manufacture the appearance of
:23:31. > :23:34.success out of very little. As things stand at the moment, there's
:23:35. > :23:37.nothing the Prime Minister would bring back that would make you want
:23:38. > :23:42.to stay in? I've been clear through the whole period that most of us
:23:43. > :23:46.want to end the supremacy of the EU in the UK. Make our own laws in
:23:47. > :23:51.Parliament. The prime ministers had something similar about the European
:23:52. > :23:54.Court of Human Rights. Demanding an opt out from the charter is subbing
:23:55. > :24:01.the Prime Minister has had to give up. So money inconsistencies. The
:24:02. > :24:04.answer is no. I expect a good number of colleagues to join me and
:24:05. > :24:12.campaign to leave at this stage. How many Tory MPs will campaign for out?
:24:13. > :24:15.Of the 150 on the list who have expressed interest, and about a
:24:16. > :24:24.fifth have made up their minds, I think about 50-70. No more than 50
:24:25. > :24:29.or 70 Tory MPs campaigning on your side of the referendum to leave?
:24:30. > :24:33.That would be my expectation at this stage. John McDonnell said he wanted
:24:34. > :24:38.to get this out of the wear it, the referendum. Didn't sound to me like
:24:39. > :24:42.Labour would join with the SNP on delaying tactics for the referendum.
:24:43. > :24:46.Would you like the referendum to be later? Realistically we are
:24:47. > :24:49.campaigning out to leave the EU and we have secured our objectives for
:24:50. > :24:55.the campaign. But there is a good case to be made that a June date
:24:56. > :25:04.would trust us. There are elections in neigh, and I think there's a good
:25:05. > :25:07.case for a delay until September. I would prefer the government brought
:25:08. > :25:12.forward a measure that went through the Commons without a row, but if
:25:13. > :25:16.Labour and the SNP and conservative colleagues wish to put something
:25:17. > :25:23.through, then we will be able to what's the biggest beach from the --
:25:24. > :25:29.beast on the cabinet you would like to get? I haven't ruled anybody out.
:25:30. > :25:32.But I'm happy to go into the campaign without any Cabinet big
:25:33. > :25:38.beasts. It would be surprised this point if Chris Grayling didn't join
:25:39. > :25:45.us. He would count as a big beast, leader of the house. People know
:25:46. > :25:55.which Cabinet members are discussed. Theresa May? She made a speech on
:25:56. > :26:01.immigration which would be difficult to recalibrate with the EU. It's a
:26:02. > :26:04.matter for her. You've given up on Bryce Johnson? He occasionally
:26:05. > :26:10.flirts with it in the press. But he's a typical conservative, he
:26:11. > :26:15.loves Europe, he would like Europe to be different, but we'll see what
:26:16. > :26:24.he does when the comes. The different leave campaigns, it's
:26:25. > :26:27.flawed with blood, when will you stop knocking lumps out of each
:26:28. > :26:32.other? I'm not knocking lumps out of anybody and I regret this week that
:26:33. > :26:36.we've had distractions from the core aim of leaving the EU and I regret
:26:37. > :26:39.they have got their way to the press. Everybody involved needs to
:26:40. > :26:44.reach a resolution, everybody involved wants to move on and I hope
:26:45. > :26:48.we do so quickly, let's fight a winning campaign. You are not the
:26:49. > :26:52.director of Vote Leave but you are on the Parliamentary planning
:26:53. > :26:56.committee for Vote Leave, so you are associated. Did you agree with the
:26:57. > :26:59.attempts to get rid of the two full-time people running it, Dominic
:27:00. > :27:03.Cummings and Matthew Elliott? This is a matter for the board. Do you
:27:04. > :27:08.agree with whether they should have gone? At this stage it's very late
:27:09. > :27:19.in the day to make such a profound change. But given the severe
:27:20. > :27:22.concerns of my colleagues, it is clear there will have to be material
:27:23. > :27:24.changes in Vote Leave in order to carry parliamentarians with the
:27:25. > :27:26.campaign. What this material change mean? There has to be a greater
:27:27. > :27:30.degree of involvement with planetary and so they think they are shaping
:27:31. > :27:35.the campaign to win over those voters we need. Will there be a
:27:36. > :27:39.merger in the end? Surely that's what all of you need, you are up
:27:40. > :27:43.against the government, is huge machine, don't you need to be
:27:44. > :27:50.united? It's a David and Goliath battle and we need to be united. The
:27:51. > :27:52.process of unity will come through designation. Realistically, leave.
:27:53. > :28:01.EU is looking at the Courville, where as Vote Leave knows we need
:28:02. > :28:04.the swing vote. -- looking at the core vote. I'm confident that Vote
:28:05. > :28:11.Leave can and will win the referendum. I wouldn't give away the
:28:12. > :28:13.mop in case there is more blood to wipe up.
:28:14. > :28:16.One of David Cameron's four key demands in his EU
:28:17. > :28:19.renegotiation concerns competitiveness.
:28:20. > :28:22.The Prime Minister says the burden of regulation on businesses is too
:28:23. > :28:24.high, and that the EU needs to strengthen the single market
:28:25. > :28:26.and accelerate trade agreements with America and China.
:28:27. > :28:29.Arguments about the economic costs or benefits of membership will form
:28:30. > :28:32.a large part of the referendum campaign, with both sides keen
:28:33. > :28:39.Those campaigning to remain within the EU say our membership
:28:40. > :28:42.is worth ?3000 to every household in Britain.
:28:43. > :28:48.It's based on a CBI claim that the UK's economy is 5% bigger
:28:49. > :28:55.They also claim that 3 million jobs are linked
:28:56. > :28:59.to trade within the EU, that 45% of UK exports of goods
:29:00. > :29:03.and services go to the EU, and that the value of
:29:04. > :29:09.trade with the EU is ?133 billion higher than it would be if we left.
:29:10. > :29:17.Those who argue we would be better off if we left claim that
:29:18. > :29:19.regulations imposed on business by the EU cost over
:29:20. > :29:25.They say the 3 million figure on jobs is
:29:26. > :29:27.dependent on trade with the EU, not membership.
:29:28. > :29:30.They argue that the trade would continue if we voted to leave,
:29:31. > :29:33.because we currently import more than we export from the EU.
:29:34. > :29:36.So its members would want free trade to remain.
:29:37. > :29:39.They further point out that the importance of UK trade
:29:40. > :29:47.They cite ONS figures showing that the proportion
:29:48. > :29:50.of UK exports heading for the EU fell from 54.8% in 1999
:29:51. > :30:00.But an analysis by the House of Commons Library in 2013
:30:01. > :30:03.of numerous studies into the economic
:30:04. > :30:05.impact of EU membership found no consensus either way,
:30:06. > :30:14.So, which side will manage to convince voters?
:30:15. > :30:16.I'm joined now by the former trade minister Digby Jones
:30:17. > :30:18.and Richard Reed, who founded Innocent Smoothies,
:30:19. > :30:21.who is campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU.
:30:22. > :30:32.Welcome. Digby Jones, the EU accounts for 45% of our exports. Why
:30:33. > :30:39.would you risk any of that? That will not change. Because in the
:30:40. > :30:45.morning after any referendum result, Germany, it is pivotal on Germany,
:30:46. > :30:49.would immediately want some form of tariff free arrangement with
:30:50. > :30:55.Britain. They make a million cars they sell in Britain a year. 75 to
:30:56. > :31:01.80% of all the trains in this country are built in Dusseldorf. We
:31:02. > :31:08.do not know for sure? No. Germany does it and the others follow. There
:31:09. > :31:14.are many arguments to stay in. But the one thing we should kill now is
:31:15. > :31:20.that not one job in Britain is at risk because of EU membership. Not
:31:21. > :31:24.one. There would be a free-trade agreement because we are so
:31:25. > :31:28.important to Europe. And by the way that does not mean there are not
:31:29. > :31:33.other reasons why not -- why we might not want to be in or out. I
:31:34. > :31:39.get so frustrated when people talk about jobs at risk. It is rubbish.
:31:40. > :31:44.That is very easy thing to call total nonsense. It is clear that if
:31:45. > :31:48.your biggest market is suddenly interfered with, that it will not
:31:49. > :31:50.somehow affect trade, does not make sense. You know more than most
:31:51. > :31:56.people that businesses need certainty. What we have right now is
:31:57. > :32:00.unfettered access to the largest market in the world. The fact that
:32:01. > :32:05.we want to start playing around with this and that is good for business,
:32:06. > :32:09.it does not make sense. I do not see the added value in belonging to a
:32:10. > :32:24.club that fetters small businesses in this country every day.
:32:25. > :32:33.I am a small business. I have done it for years. This is a colossal
:32:34. > :32:39.opportunity. If you are an entrepreneur in the UK. You're
:32:40. > :32:43.making it sound like it makes it more difficult. It makes it much
:32:44. > :32:49.easier because it is one set of regulations and 500 million
:32:50. > :32:55.consumers. If you have a shop, would you want 60 million people walk by
:32:56. > :32:59.our 500 million people walk by? You can achieve that through a
:33:00. > :33:02.free-trade agreement. You get the sales prevention team in Brussels
:33:03. > :33:10.marching valiantly towards 1970, trying to save this is how you will
:33:11. > :33:15.lead your small business in Hartlepool. But we all know that
:33:16. > :33:20.Sutherland Europe, compliance is a voluntary event. We all know that
:33:21. > :33:26.the French do not obey these rules. Then we and northern Europe, we are
:33:27. > :33:31.by no means the best, we obey this stuff. And a small business who
:33:32. > :33:39.doesn't have lobbyists in Brussels, and you know this... I know this.
:33:40. > :33:43.Britain loves a bit of regulation. You are absolutely right. If we come
:33:44. > :33:48.out and you say we will still trade, we will still have to comply with
:33:49. > :33:52.the regulation. That is the condition of free trade. We will not
:33:53. > :33:57.avoid regulation. The regulation is there whether we are in or out. If
:33:58. > :34:01.we are in, we get to influence the regulation. We get to have the voice
:34:02. > :34:10.heard. You tell that to the money men in the City who have seen
:34:11. > :34:15.legislation come down from Brussels. You see what happens when we're not
:34:16. > :34:20.there when the big decisions are made. You think we have no
:34:21. > :34:23.influence? We're one of the three big forces in Europe. We are one of
:34:24. > :34:31.the three biggest economies in Europe. Digby Jones, I want to ask
:34:32. > :34:36.you this. You assume we will still have unfettered access to the single
:34:37. > :34:40.market. But it has been pointed out by Richard Reid that that means we
:34:41. > :34:44.would have to meet the conditions of getting into the single market.
:34:45. > :34:48.Could there be other costs? Free movement of people may be a cost.
:34:49. > :34:54.That is a price Switzerland and Norway pay. Let's Explorer that. I'm
:34:55. > :34:58.concerned this referendum is going to become a referendum purely on a
:34:59. > :35:03.migration on the street, when we ought to be discussing how can
:35:04. > :35:07.European Union reform and improve the life of an unemployed
:35:08. > :35:12.25-year-old in Madrid and a single mother in Athens? How can the power
:35:13. > :35:17.of Britain, economic and otherwise, how can it be seen as a driver to
:35:18. > :35:22.get the standard of living up? If you base your economy on exporting
:35:23. > :35:27.our lives and importing BMWs, you will go bust. They are asking Europe
:35:28. > :35:31.to subsidise the growth of our lives, in the hope that for some
:35:32. > :35:34.reason on skilled people in Europe will do this. You are going to get
:35:35. > :35:40.on skilled people in Europe coming to rich countries instead of
:35:41. > :35:44.actually getting skilled people in Europe being marketable in northern
:35:45. > :35:52.Europe. You can only pull that off with reform. We should not be
:35:53. > :35:55.campaigning to stop these people coming. We should be campaigning to
:35:56. > :36:00.get the skills base of Europe up so they get wealthy, but more
:36:01. > :36:05.importantly, they are more marketable in our market. The
:36:06. > :36:08.British government has enough trouble getting the skills base
:36:09. > :36:13.right in Britain without trying to get it right in southern Europe.
:36:14. > :36:19.Richard Reid, you say that we are in the club that we can influence the
:36:20. > :36:24.rules. Let me put the question. The British have been on the wrong end
:36:25. > :36:28.of EU majorities on these rules more than any other country that is a
:36:29. > :36:35.member of the EU. We really get away on these things. You are joking. We
:36:36. > :36:42.have got the best possible setup. We are part of the EU. We said no to
:36:43. > :36:51.the euro, no to Schengen, no to force migratory bird it is. Why so
:36:52. > :36:57.many majority votes? This is a macro decision. Once in a generation. We
:36:58. > :37:01.have got to get it right. The big picture is it is a colossal
:37:02. > :37:07.opportunity and we have got the best version of the deal. When you and I
:37:08. > :37:12.were arguing cases about whether we should join the euro years ago, I
:37:13. > :37:16.can remember sitting in television studios and being told the world was
:37:17. > :37:21.going to end and we were going to go to Armageddon and back if we did not
:37:22. > :37:29.join the euro. We made the right decision about the euro. This
:37:30. > :37:31.interview has come to an end. I thank you both.
:37:32. > :37:33.It's just gone 11:35 - you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:34. > :37:36.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:37:37. > :37:45.Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be hearing from our political panel.
:37:46. > :37:48.Are plans to devolve the rail franchises
:37:49. > :37:50.to the Welsh Government about to hit the buffers?
:37:51. > :37:53.We hear concerns about plans to split control of trains running
:37:54. > :37:57.And with a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU possibly months
:37:58. > :38:11.away, we ask "what's best for Wales?"
:38:12. > :38:12.But first what's next for Welsh railways?
:38:13. > :38:15.Ministers here will be given responsibility for running many
:38:16. > :38:17.services from next year, but the UK Government may retain
:38:18. > :38:19.control over trains that run from here into England.
:38:20. > :38:22.One rail expert told us this would be "a completely daft idea",
:38:23. > :38:25.while the Welsh Transport Minister says UK officials are ignorant.
:38:26. > :38:27.More from her in a moment, but first Cemlyn Davies reports
:38:28. > :38:37.on what's coming down the track for Welsh railways.
:38:38. > :38:41.Britain had a nationalised rail service and there were no franchises
:38:42. > :38:45.The steam of yesteryear has now given way to a much foggier picture,
:38:46. > :38:49.where borders and responsibilities are blurred.
:38:50. > :38:51.Like most roots in Wales, the Aberystwyth to Birmingham
:38:52. > :38:54.International line is part of the Wales and Borders rail
:38:55. > :38:56.franchise, which will soon become the Welsh Government 's
:38:57. > :38:59.responsibility but it seems the map could be very different and much
:39:00. > :39:08.There is a suggestion now that certain services like this one
:39:09. > :39:10.starting in Wales but ending in England could be broken up
:39:11. > :39:12.with different companies providing the service either side
:39:13. > :39:15.of Offa's Dyke and that could leave passengers travelling to places
:39:16. > :39:17.like Birmingham from Aberystwyth having to change at a station
:39:18. > :39:31.That is a very bad situation, especially for people
:39:32. > :39:33.going to Birmingham International Airport, which is people
:39:34. > :39:34.from university, hospital, travelling a lot, going
:39:35. > :39:45.I am going to Manchester, I have to change over
:39:46. > :39:49.It is only about 20, 25 minutes, maybe a half-hour
:39:50. > :39:56.It is just the best option for me really.
:39:57. > :39:58.I remember the sunny days when you could get a train
:39:59. > :40:00.to Aberystwyth once-a-day, all the way to London.
:40:01. > :40:07.Most of the passengers go as far as Shrewsbury, about 75%,
:40:08. > :40:10.and about 50% of passengers are actually going beyond Shrewsbury
:40:11. > :40:11.to mostly Birmingham, Birmingham International
:40:12. > :40:17.or of course London, which is a major destination.
:40:18. > :40:20.The UK Government has said it expects that services primarily
:40:21. > :40:23.serving English passengers will be remapped and taken out of the Wales
:40:24. > :40:24.and Borders franchise to ensure proper accountability.
:40:25. > :40:26.The Welsh Government meanwhile has launched a consultation
:40:27. > :40:29.into the future of the Wales and Borders franchise and though
:40:30. > :40:31.the document makes no reference to any possible redrawing
:40:32. > :40:34.of the rail network, Carwyn Jones did have this to say
:40:35. > :40:40.It is the suggestion of the Department for Transport
:40:41. > :40:43.that they do not want to see rail services exist between a departure
:40:44. > :40:46.point in Wales and a terminus point in England and vice versa.
:40:47. > :40:53.We are more than happy to make that case to the UK Government.
:40:54. > :40:56.But it is important to understand that is the attitude that has been
:40:57. > :41:05.taken so far by the Department for Transport.
:41:06. > :41:06.As well as the Aberystwyth to Birmingham line,
:41:07. > :41:10.there are questions over the future of the Milford Haven to Manchester
:41:11. > :41:11.service and the route between Holyhead and Manchester
:41:12. > :41:18.Despite running through England, it is understood the Cardiff
:41:19. > :41:20.to Holyhead line would not be affected because that journey
:41:21. > :41:24.And neither would the route between London and Swansea
:41:25. > :41:35.or Holyhead because they are part of separate franchises.
:41:36. > :41:37.The suggestion has baffled industry experts, including Christian Wolmar.
:41:38. > :41:39.The transport journalist, who does have strong Labour ties,
:41:40. > :41:45.has written extensively about the British railway system.
:41:46. > :41:47.I think this is a completely daft idea.
:41:48. > :41:50.It is the sort of thing that has arisen out of the fact
:41:51. > :41:52.that the railway is privatised, so the English government seems
:41:53. > :41:55.to be worried that the Welsh Government would have control of say
:41:56. > :41:58.a train that ran from Aberystwyth to Birmingham and in the English
:41:59. > :42:01.part of it, the Welsh Government would be running it and therefore
:42:02. > :42:03.might say in things like the timetable and services
:42:04. > :42:14.I think that is a completely ridiculous notion and hopefully,
:42:15. > :42:23.The UK Government says it is working closely with the Welsh ministers
:42:24. > :42:25.and no decision will be made without taking local
:42:26. > :42:29.The strength of opposition to any change is already clear.
:42:30. > :42:36.It is ludicrous, it is impractical, it is being done behind-the-scenes
:42:37. > :42:38.with a lot of secrecy initially anyway, and we are determined
:42:39. > :42:43.It is not in the interest of passengers.
:42:44. > :42:49.It would affect the tourist industry.
:42:50. > :42:52.This train left Aberystwyth on time for its journey through mid Wales
:42:53. > :42:56.and into England but it is unclear how far it will be allowed to travel
:42:57. > :43:07.Our reporter Carl Roberts caught up with the Transport Minister in
:43:08. > :43:12.Edwina Hart's standing down in a few weeks of course,
:43:13. > :43:14.after a ministerial career where she's been known
:43:15. > :43:21.Carl asked Mrs Hart for her take on this situation.
:43:22. > :43:24.We understand that this has been mooted in discussions at official
:43:25. > :43:26.level and obviously, we are very unhappy about that
:43:27. > :43:28.because we want to ensure that those services remain
:43:29. > :43:36.within the franchise, it makes it a very value added
:43:37. > :43:39.So obviously we will be pressing our case to ensure
:43:40. > :43:45.that the franchise arrangements include cross-border.
:43:46. > :43:47.What do you think the motivation is for these suggestions?
:43:48. > :43:49.Why are these being discussed from a Department for Transport
:43:50. > :43:54.Some people say it would be to sabotage any franchise and make
:43:55. > :43:56.it less appealing to anybody who might want to bid for it.
:43:57. > :44:00.Yes, I think people do try and say things, that there are these
:44:01. > :44:05.I sometimes think that some people that you deal with do not actually
:44:06. > :44:07.understand Wales and they do not understand how things work
:44:08. > :44:15.I mean sometimes there are officials at various levels within the DFT
:44:16. > :44:18.but I have to say at the end of the day, my job is to ensure
:44:19. > :44:21.we have the best possible service and the best franchise
:44:22. > :44:23.and that is not the right way to go ahead.
:44:24. > :44:28.I am basing my comments on ignorance rather than conspiracy theory.
:44:29. > :44:30.You have said in the past that any future franchise, you think
:44:31. > :44:33.that the people of Wales would like to see rail services
:44:34. > :44:36.You say that is what the people of Wales think.
:44:37. > :44:41.I don't think I have used the word nationalised in that way.
:44:42. > :44:47.There is much more accountability for the public, which I think
:44:48. > :44:50.there will be when we look at how we might set things up
:44:51. > :44:53.Because I don't think it has been really well-run,
:44:54. > :44:55.in terms of what happens now with rail.
:44:56. > :44:58.We have all the problems with Network Rail, which are very
:44:59. > :45:00.real to us in Wales, projects overrunning,
:45:01. > :45:02.costs overrunning, and you have no control over Network Rail really
:45:03. > :45:04.because they are judge, jury and executioner,
:45:05. > :45:11.Do you foresee a situation where the Welsh Government would be
:45:12. > :45:14.running those services, perhaps putting an arm 's length
:45:15. > :45:16.company to do the work for you, but firmly managed and run
:45:17. > :45:20.with responsibility with the Welsh Government?
:45:21. > :45:23.Yes, and I do see that as being the future and we have a lot
:45:24. > :45:25.of support for locking up these issues like this.
:45:26. > :45:29.We have already indicated what we would do with the Metro
:45:30. > :45:33.And that is very important because people can have confidence
:45:34. > :45:35.that they will actually have input in to what is happening.
:45:36. > :45:38.There is such a lot going on in terms of transport.
:45:39. > :45:40.You have the franchise discussions, all the issues
:45:41. > :45:41.about electrification, and with electrification,
:45:42. > :45:44.there is great disappoint but where we are now in Swansea
:45:45. > :45:46.because they really wanted to be part of the electrification straight
:45:47. > :45:58.They are going to a different control period.
:45:59. > :46:00.They are worried it might never happen.
:46:01. > :46:02.And the impact then further west if electrification does not come
:46:03. > :46:05.to Swansea, so people do want to feel that there
:46:06. > :46:08.is a government fighting for them to have more control over things.
:46:09. > :46:11.We asked people about you and the kind of person you are,
:46:12. > :46:14.They say you make decisions, you get things done.
:46:15. > :46:18.Is it with regret that by the time you leave office that the future
:46:19. > :46:21.of any new M4 relief road is still up in the air?
:46:22. > :46:23.No, I think we have gone through a process with
:46:24. > :46:27.I think there is a lot of hot air around the M4 relief road.
:46:28. > :46:30.At the end of the day, we will end up with a public
:46:31. > :46:32.enquiry, we have all the environmental considerations
:46:33. > :46:37.I think when you leave politics, there will always be things
:46:38. > :46:40.you would have liked to have been there, but that would mean
:46:41. > :46:43.you would have to carry on and live long enough to do it
:46:44. > :46:47.And I am not one of those politicians who think you have
:46:48. > :46:50.to keep on forever, things can get done when you're not there.
:46:51. > :46:56.In public life, there have been to many that have thought that.
:46:57. > :46:59.And the final question from me, if you are not on the train
:47:00. > :47:02.going from Swansea to London, do you think you will be driving
:47:03. > :47:06.Well, I would very much hope that we can proceed
:47:07. > :47:08.with the project, we are very committed to the project.
:47:09. > :47:10.Obviously, there are other hurdles to go through.
:47:11. > :47:12.There will be a public enquiry and everything.
:47:13. > :47:15.But I know one thing, that I will be retired,
:47:16. > :47:18.but there are a lot of people that require that for work and the CBI
:47:19. > :47:22.and all of them are very strong behind the need to ensure we have
:47:23. > :47:24.economic prosperity and they regard that as being a key issue,
:47:25. > :47:31.It's possible that we're less than six months away
:47:32. > :47:34.from a referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave
:47:35. > :47:40.David Cameron wants to apply a so-called emergency brake
:47:41. > :47:42.on the ability of EU migrants to receive in-work
:47:43. > :47:55.And he wants to apply that brake the day after a referendum.
:47:56. > :47:57.There's an important meeting tonight at Downing Street .
:47:58. > :48:00.If Mr Cameron gets his own way, the vote could take place in June.
:48:01. > :48:03.In a moment we'll discuss this with one person who wants to leave,
:48:04. > :48:10.In Wales, we have already had some of the issues debated
:48:11. > :48:12.when Carwyn Jones went head-to-head with Nigel Farage
:48:13. > :48:15.Last week, the Secretary of State for Wales, Stephen Crabb,
:48:16. > :48:18.set out his stall, as being in favour of staying
:48:19. > :48:20.in if David Cameron gets the changes he wants,
:48:21. > :48:23.so when I met him, I asked him if there were any circumstances
:48:24. > :48:25.where he would not back the Prime Minister.
:48:26. > :48:27.Well, we are going into this renegotiation process
:48:28. > :48:30.with confidence that we can get a deal and if you look at the track
:48:31. > :48:33.record of the Prime Minister, even when every other commentator
:48:34. > :48:35.has been predicting that he would not be able to get
:48:36. > :48:38.reform in Europe, whether we are talking about securing the rebate
:48:39. > :48:41.or getting a real terms reduction in the European Union budget,
:48:42. > :48:44.he achieved that, so we have got confidence that he can get a good
:48:45. > :48:51.I have got confidence in that, which is why I am confident that
:48:52. > :48:53.when the referendum comes, when we get that successful
:48:54. > :48:56.renegotiation, I can go out as Secretary of State for Wales
:48:57. > :48:58.and campaign on a strong and pragmatic case for Wales
:48:59. > :49:02.and Britain to remain inside a reformed European Union.
:49:03. > :49:05.What we don't have yet is the exact meaning of what a good
:49:06. > :49:15.The proposal for a four-year period before which European migrants
:49:16. > :49:18.would not be able to claim in work benefits, that proposal
:49:19. > :49:20.is still on the table, that proposal is still
:49:21. > :49:24.being discussed with our European partners.
:49:25. > :49:27.Now, if our European partners come back to us and say,
:49:28. > :49:30.look, there is another way we can help you which even the same
:49:31. > :49:32.objective, and let's recognise what the broad objective is,
:49:33. > :49:34.which is to reduce the pull factor of welfare policy,
:49:35. > :49:37.increasing immigration into the UK, of course, we want skills,
:49:38. > :49:40.we want talent to come to Wales and to come to Britain,
:49:41. > :49:42.what we don't want is our welfare policies providing
:49:43. > :49:48.Now, the European member states, the other member states,
:49:49. > :49:51.know this is a difficult area that they get where we are coming
:49:52. > :49:53.from and although it is painstaking, it is difficult discussions,
:49:54. > :49:56.I am confident that they will see sense and help us reach
:49:57. > :50:05.When it comes to the campaign itself, whenever that might be,
:50:06. > :50:08.do you think there needs to be a different emphasis on the campaign
:50:09. > :50:11.in Wales, considering Wales is the only part of the UK receiving
:50:12. > :50:15.Does that sway how the debate should be held in Wales?
:50:16. > :50:19.The point I am making in this speech is this should be about weighing up
:50:20. > :50:21.the risks and opportunities, both options, either staying
:50:22. > :50:25.And of course, in Wales, we have issues with a greater
:50:26. > :50:27.than average proportion of farming subsidies and structural payments
:50:28. > :50:30.like objective one, those are clearly factors that we need
:50:31. > :50:34.What I don't like is to see the debate in Wales simply
:50:35. > :50:38.focus on those issues, which is the traditional evidence
:50:39. > :50:44.and arguments that politicians in Wales tend to use to back up this
:50:45. > :50:52.kind of unthinking stay the European Union
:50:53. > :51:04.I am saying we need a bit more of a considered approach,
:51:05. > :51:06.one that actually look as at the risks and the
:51:07. > :51:08.opportunities, weighs it up, it is a hard-headed,
:51:09. > :51:14.In Wales, we have got issues that are important.
:51:15. > :51:17.But the hard-headed pragmatic approach will be over the last seven
:51:18. > :51:19.or eight years, ?1 billion of structural funds has come
:51:20. > :51:23.The leave side will say, well, that is British money that
:51:24. > :51:29.That is why I am asking, do you think that element should
:51:30. > :51:36.This referendum that we are going to have in the next year or so,
:51:37. > :51:38.this will be a once in a generation decision.
:51:39. > :51:40.Now, it is a decision for the long-term.
:51:41. > :51:42.Now, we should not be making arguments for the long-term based
:51:43. > :51:45.on the fact that we are getting temporary payments from
:51:46. > :51:47.the European Union because of economic failure in Wales.
:51:48. > :51:49.Objective one is not an accolade for Wales.
:51:50. > :51:52.We should be aiming and working and doing everything we possibly can
:51:53. > :51:55.Because that is actually a mark of economic failure,
:51:56. > :52:00.So let's weigh up the pros and cons, we will take into account
:52:01. > :52:02.all of these different issues, structural funds, farming payments,
:52:03. > :52:07.Our ambitions should be for Wales to be punching well above its weight
:52:08. > :52:16.within the European economy, rather than trailing behind.
:52:17. > :52:23.You will be aware of this letter that has been sent by Carwyn Jones
:52:24. > :52:26.and the leaders of all four political parties in the assembly,
:52:27. > :52:33.as well as the views of Nicola Sturgeon,
:52:34. > :52:36.which is that the referendum should not be held too close
:52:37. > :52:38.to the assembly and local elections in May.
:52:39. > :52:40.That would rule out a June referendum.
:52:41. > :52:42.Can I ask, what is your view on that?
:52:43. > :52:45.I was really surprised that Carwyn Jones put his name to that
:52:46. > :52:47.letter, given that it was Carwyn Jones who kicked
:52:48. > :52:49.off his own assembly campaign at the start of this year
:52:50. > :52:51.with a head-to-head debate against Nigel Farage
:52:52. > :52:56.I think he is trying to have it both ways.
:52:57. > :52:59.They all made the case last year that they should not
:53:00. > :53:01.have the referendum on the same day as the elections
:53:02. > :53:03.to the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament.
:53:04. > :53:07.I happen to believe that there is no great problem in combining elections
:53:08. > :53:09.on a particular day, but we listened to the arguments
:53:10. > :53:13.and we made a commitment not to have it on the same day.
:53:14. > :53:17.Now they have moved the goalposts and say, we don't want
:53:18. > :53:19.the referendum happening within a number of months or weeks
:53:20. > :53:21.of the assembly and the Scottish Parliament elections.
:53:22. > :53:24.I think there is a bit of silliness going on here.
:53:25. > :53:26.I think people in Wales are well able to handle debates
:53:27. > :53:30.about different issues in roughly the same time period and I think it
:53:31. > :53:39.I'm joined now to chew over some of those points by Eluned Parrott
:53:40. > :53:41.who speaks on Europe for the Lib Dems and Sam Gould
:53:42. > :54:01.These changes, these proposals that David Cameron wants to see to limit
:54:02. > :54:08.in work benefits for migrants for four years, what does that mean?
:54:09. > :54:14.Does that make the European Union a less attractive policy for you? Not
:54:15. > :54:20.at all. Regardless of the package of changes that evict Cameron is hoping
:54:21. > :54:25.to achieve on a pragmatic basis, the long-term picture for Europe is one
:54:26. > :54:31.of partnership with our nations. Looking to the long-term, the
:54:32. > :54:34.economic opportunities to help collaborate together across Europe,
:54:35. > :54:37.to fight against the threat of jobs being lost to the Far East, it is
:54:38. > :54:42.about tackling climate change over the long-term, it is about those
:54:43. > :54:47.international relationships we have developed for a long period of time
:54:48. > :54:54.that have helped to bring as security and stability. I do not
:54:55. > :54:58.think what David Cameron achieves will sway either of you too but do
:54:59. > :55:03.you think for the British voters, if he can come back and say he has a
:55:04. > :55:08.good deal on for example benefits, that may sway some of the uncertain
:55:09. > :55:12.voters? I think the voters will see through the smoke and mirrors being
:55:13. > :55:16.created from David Cameron. I do not think in any way he's gone to get a
:55:17. > :55:22.good deal. This emergency brake on migration, it is allowing him to go
:55:23. > :55:26.back to Brussels and actually request for rest to then have
:55:27. > :55:30.another break on migration. It is not giving them any real power. The
:55:31. > :55:34.fact that he has to go around Europe and the different states begging for
:55:35. > :55:39.his own right to actually change his own laws is not a leader of an
:55:40. > :55:45.independent nation. What do you think about this matter of him
:55:46. > :55:48.having the emergency brake the day after a referendum and it would he
:55:49. > :55:54.in place for seven years while they work on a more permanent fixture?
:55:55. > :56:04.Doesn't that undermine one of the key plus points for the remainder
:56:05. > :56:09.said which is that uncertainty? It just be tinkering again if the UK
:56:10. > :56:15.remains. Not at all. Over a period of time it is the challenges facing
:56:16. > :56:18.Europe. There will be changes negotiated between the European
:56:19. > :56:23.states but of course those decisions for the European Parliament and our
:56:24. > :56:28.elected heads of states as part of the Council of Europe. There are
:56:29. > :56:30.inevitably going to be different crises that approach Europe and we
:56:31. > :56:36.will need to take those into account and deal with them as they arise but
:56:37. > :56:39.what I am talking about is those long-term challenges that can mean
:56:40. > :56:44.constant, climate change, making sure that we are economic leverage
:56:45. > :56:49.the time that we can brave the swings and fortunes of the global
:56:50. > :56:52.market. And also things like making sure we have research and
:56:53. > :56:57.development in our universities, investment going there and making
:56:58. > :57:00.sure that we have things like the common agricultural policy, a stable
:57:01. > :57:05.food base and farmers that are able to survive without it. That is a
:57:06. > :57:09.good point, isn't it? For the remainder said, you can list off a
:57:10. > :57:13.whole load of attractive things. From the leave said, there is a
:57:14. > :57:17.danger that it is unlawful lot of uncertainty when you are looking
:57:18. > :57:22.things like trade and so on. Is that a concern as a mark not at all. I
:57:23. > :57:27.think there is more uncertainty of we remain. If you look at the case
:57:28. > :57:31.of Welsh steel and the uncertainty that has been there. We have lost
:57:32. > :57:36.hundreds of jobs we simply as a result of the European Union doing
:57:37. > :57:39.absolutely nothing. We need our own control over the UK markets to
:57:40. > :57:44.ensure we can protect British jobs first. That is the steel industry
:57:45. > :57:49.but there are an awful lot of other issues, trade for example with the
:57:50. > :57:54.European Union, a huge amount of exports from the UK. You would have
:57:55. > :57:57.to sort of renegotiate all those different factors without knowing
:57:58. > :58:06.exactly what the end point would be? The EU will offer a trade deal
:58:07. > :58:13.within 24 hours of us leaving. That is not cast is your opinion. That
:58:14. > :58:15.would have to remain. We would regain our seat on the World Trade
:58:16. > :58:20.Organisation, enabling us to make our own trade arrangements. PE you
:58:21. > :58:24.has not made trade arrangements with United States of America or China,
:58:25. > :58:27.some of the biggest market in the world. We will be able to do that as
:58:28. > :58:31.an independent nation. We import billions of pounds worth of projects
:58:32. > :58:36.from the EU. We import more than we actually export to it. It is in
:58:37. > :58:39.their interest to make sure we have a free-trade arrangement with them.
:58:40. > :58:46.It makes freedom far easier for trade. That is absolute nonsense.
:58:47. > :58:51.They are undergoing those negotiations over a union with
:58:52. > :58:56.America. But it is an absolute nonsense. 44% of Britain's trade
:58:57. > :59:00.goes to European nations. Emerging, developing countries, that is about
:59:01. > :59:04.it said, according to the latest figures. It would be absolutely
:59:05. > :59:09.devastating to the British economy and to Wales in particular if people
:59:10. > :59:13.who have come and invested in Wales decided all of a sudden that they
:59:14. > :59:17.would have to leave because the reason the game here is it was an
:59:18. > :59:21.entry point to the European market. The European market is half a
:59:22. > :59:25.billion consumers and ?10 trillion in value. The UK market as an entry
:59:26. > :59:31.point is nowhere near as attractive. A separate issue, to pick up on what
:59:32. > :59:34.Stephen Crabb said in the interview there, does it need to be a
:59:35. > :59:38.different emphasis in Wales when you consider the billions of pounds over
:59:39. > :59:43.the last ten years or so that have come from EU structural objective
:59:44. > :59:47.one funds # I have heard the argument, it is edition money that
:59:48. > :59:54.will come to Wales anyway. Again, that is not a guarantee. When the
:59:55. > :59:57.European Union is growing, there is the fact that when Turkey joins the
:59:58. > :00:01.European Union, Stephen Crabb is more than aware that the funding
:00:02. > :00:05.into Wales will then also decrease. There is far more sense -- certainty
:00:06. > :00:10.when we take control of our funds. In terms of trade negotiations, the
:00:11. > :00:17.transatlantic trade negotiation partnership is being negotiated in
:00:18. > :00:21.secret, it puts many of our things in Wales at risk. It puts the NHS at
:00:22. > :00:26.risk and could lead to privatisation of the NHS, which we want to stop.
:00:27. > :00:35.Actually, that is not true. It is your policy in the UK as Ukip to
:00:36. > :00:38.scrap the NHS. That is not the case. Thank you very much for coming in.
:00:39. > :00:40.Don't forget you can follow all the latest on Twitter.
:00:41. > :00:53.talk about themselves and the mayoral budget. Back to Andrew.
:00:54. > :01:01.Welcome back. Let's return to the issue of Google's tax bill. It is
:01:02. > :01:04.not just Google. Earlier I spoke to John McDonnell and asked him what he
:01:05. > :01:10.would do to make sure that companies like Google pay a fair and
:01:11. > :01:14.appropriate level of tax. First of all, I want the information about
:01:15. > :01:22.how the deal was arrived at and I want them in future to publish their
:01:23. > :01:25.tax records, the British part. So we can have openness and transparency,
:01:26. > :01:29.we can see what is fair. The Chancellor said this was a major
:01:30. > :01:36.success, but we cannot tell because we have not got the information.
:01:37. > :01:40.I would suggest that the Google row rumbles on by Google appearing with
:01:41. > :01:46.Andrew Marr this morning. There are other companies in the frame like
:01:47. > :01:49.Amazon, Apple, big investigation by the European Commission --
:01:50. > :01:55.commission. And we discover that a lot of major British multinationals
:01:56. > :01:58.do not pay any are very small amounts of corporation tax. This
:01:59. > :02:04.issue has got a long way to go, I would suggest? Yes, and it could end
:02:05. > :02:11.up in a transatlantic almost cold war between the EU and the US and in
:02:12. > :02:15.particular US companies. Each side thinks the other is trying to
:02:16. > :02:18.exploit its site disproportionately. I wonder if eventually the people
:02:19. > :02:23.who ultimately lobby for International corporate tax reform
:02:24. > :02:26.and clarity will be corporations themselves. At the moment they are
:02:27. > :02:30.getting into trouble of what is ultimately observing the letter of
:02:31. > :02:35.the law, and certainly observing their duty to pay the legal minimum
:02:36. > :02:38.of tax, the duty they have to their shareholders. If that is getting
:02:39. > :02:42.them into trouble, I think they have an incentive in the long run to
:02:43. > :02:46.press for a clarity and reform internationally, even if it means
:02:47. > :02:51.their aggregate tax payment goes slightly upwards. The irony is that
:02:52. > :02:57.this row comes after there has been major changes at the OECD level, at
:02:58. > :03:03.EU level, on trying to simplify and get multinationals to pay their due
:03:04. > :03:09.tax. And yet we seem to be no further forward than before. I
:03:10. > :03:12.wonder if people start looking harder at corporation tax and
:03:13. > :03:16.whether that is the right way to proceed? S there are other ways of
:03:17. > :03:21.doing it. You can do it on turnover, sales. These large companies that
:03:22. > :03:31.are taking bigger and bigger slabs of the British markets are not
:03:32. > :03:36.paying their tax. Think of the people competing against Amazon.
:03:37. > :03:42.Argos, the local book shop... It is not fair. Their sense of
:03:43. > :03:46.indignation... Then to discover that the Conservative Party, while
:03:47. > :03:48.talking about how they are trying to clean this up and they are doing
:03:49. > :03:53.more than Labour, which possibly they are, meanwhile instructing
:03:54. > :03:57.their MEPs to vote against moves in Europe, to try to get a proper
:03:58. > :04:02.European agreement on this, it will not work unless we get a European
:04:03. > :04:05.agreement, and to find out that the Government says one thing speaking
:04:06. > :04:11.here but secretly in the European Parliament does something else.
:04:12. > :04:15.There are a lot of legs on this. A lot of trouble for the Conservative
:04:16. > :04:19.Party because it plays to their weakness, sick -- just a security
:04:20. > :04:23.and defence place to be Labour weakness. They are in bed with the
:04:24. > :04:30.big corporations. Do you think they are in bed with them? Politicians
:04:31. > :04:36.love meeting cutting edge companies. They do not spend that much time
:04:37. > :04:41.with steel companies. It is a bit of a stretch to then think that they
:04:42. > :04:47.were ever doing anything about Google's tax returns. I think it is
:04:48. > :04:50.quite a stretch. The Google top executive right at the heart of
:04:51. > :04:56.Downing Street, just as Andy Coulson from the Murdoch empire was right at
:04:57. > :05:01.the heart of Downing Street. You have got Seamus Milne at the heart
:05:02. > :05:12.of the Corbyn Empire. There is quite a difference! It is ironic, the
:05:13. > :05:16.International rules were meant to be cleaned up. They were meant to have
:05:17. > :05:22.done something about the double Irish and Dutch sandwich. I speak in
:05:23. > :05:28.tongues because that is how you have to do it these days. Unless there is
:05:29. > :05:32.a major radical change, I would suggest, if they carry on the
:05:33. > :05:37.current way, it will be another ten years before there are further
:05:38. > :05:42.changes? Yass and not only were the international rules meant to have
:05:43. > :05:48.been cleared up, George Osborne talked about how reprehensible
:05:49. > :05:53.aggressive tax avoidance is. Then last week he said the deal with
:05:54. > :05:57.Google is a special deal. The problem with George Osborne is he
:05:58. > :06:00.has forgotten the second part of Peter Mandelson's famous sentence
:06:01. > :06:08.about being relaxed about people getting rich... As long as they pay
:06:09. > :06:13.their tax. The problem for George Osborne is that he sees everything
:06:14. > :06:16.through a 2010 lens. This deal is much better than anything that
:06:17. > :06:23.happened under new Labour. That is six years ago. We have moved on.
:06:24. > :06:28.People are now judging this government on what they have done.
:06:29. > :06:33.It has been a long slow burning campaign. The tax Justice campaign
:06:34. > :06:40.has been brilliant. UK uncut Ren fantastic demonstrations against top
:06:41. > :06:44.shop, Vodafone, boots, people avoiding their taxes in elaborate
:06:45. > :06:52.ways. Witty campaigns the public saw. I think it is at the centre of
:06:53. > :07:01.it now. With other cases coming up, Apple and Amazon, Vodafone always in
:07:02. > :07:05.the frame... Just finally, I thought it was fascinating that Peter Borren
:07:06. > :07:10.of Google explained in effect that the money made in Britain and other
:07:11. > :07:18.places is then sent to Bermuda, essentially warehoused in Bermuda.
:07:19. > :07:21.It is a tax haven. If they repatriated back to California
:07:22. > :07:26.headquarters, they would pay corporation tax in America and they
:07:27. > :07:33.think that is too high. America corporate tax is run about 40%.
:07:34. > :07:36.Apple has about 200 billion US dollars in cash reserves
:07:37. > :07:41.internationally. Let's move on to the referendum. I got the impression
:07:42. > :07:46.from listening to John McDonnell and other Labour shadow ministers I have
:07:47. > :07:49.interviewed that there is no appetite on the Labour front bench
:07:50. > :07:55.to delay this referendum. I think they would like to get on with it? S
:07:56. > :07:59.they want to get on with it, then wanted to succeed. They want the yes
:08:00. > :08:02.campaign to win. At the moment Labour is not doing very well with
:08:03. > :08:10.it. It ought to be a great hallmark for them. Labour is almost
:08:11. > :08:14.unequivocally pro-EU. They should be making a lot of capital against
:08:15. > :08:21.every split Tory party and they are not, really. It is not clear why.
:08:22. > :08:28.Maybe their hearts are not in it. It is led by two people who voted to
:08:29. > :08:31.come out into -- 19 75. Alan Johnson woman who is leading the campaign,
:08:32. > :08:34.does not appear to be making much headway. Maybe they are waiting
:08:35. > :08:39.until Cameron comes back with a package. I think they are missing a
:08:40. > :08:46.trick. The Eurosceptics want more time. They fear if it is rushed,
:08:47. > :08:54.they will definitely lose. But for a June referendum in the Commons, it
:08:55. > :08:57.would need Labour as well. It is clearly not going to happen. The
:08:58. > :09:02.only thing that could stop it, because the numbers are now not in
:09:03. > :09:05.the Commons, is if the electoral commission, bearing in mind you have
:09:06. > :09:09.the leaders of the three devolved administrations saying they're not
:09:10. > :09:13.happy, that is the only thing that could potentially stop it. Now that
:09:14. > :09:18.the Labour Party is saying we should get on with it, it looks like that
:09:19. > :09:22.will happen. People like Steve Baker needs to be careful. They have been
:09:23. > :09:26.saying for 20 years we need a referendum. Here it is coming down
:09:27. > :09:28.the stream and they say, we are not sure about it. That potentially
:09:29. > :09:35.shows they are nervous about the case. One of the most telling thing
:09:36. > :09:41.is Steve Baker said was the number of Tory MPs who would vote to leave
:09:42. > :09:44.would be no more than 70, which is clearly expectations management on
:09:45. > :09:49.his party that's my part. What you have seen in the past 72 hours is
:09:50. > :09:59.expectations management on all sides. Downing Street is dampening
:10:00. > :10:05.down expectations. We are all massively impressed. I hope you are
:10:06. > :10:08.right that he is that clever. What worries me is that he has been
:10:09. > :10:17.reckless. He has put things out there that he could never get. He
:10:18. > :10:21.has not put everybody square. If not clever, certainly cynical. Steve
:10:22. > :10:28.Baker and the sceptics are playing down their expected numbers, even
:10:29. > :10:31.Cabinet ministers. The area where George Osborne thinks he will make
:10:32. > :10:39.the most fundamental and important changes as the exceptions for those
:10:40. > :10:42.countries not in the eurozone. That gets very little coverage. George
:10:43. > :10:46.Osborne says that is the most important thing we could get because
:10:47. > :10:50.it will play for decades to come. The territory they are fighting on
:10:51. > :10:56.is the area where they are quite weak, benefits reform. We will have
:10:57. > :11:01.another referendum in 2021 when treaty change takes place and the
:11:02. > :11:05.eurozone becomes a proper monetary union. I don't think anybody is go
:11:06. > :11:09.to do a treaty change for a long time. The mood across Europe,
:11:10. > :11:16.particularly about immigration and refugee is, I think nobody will want
:11:17. > :11:21.a treaty. It is all talk. I do not see it. I don't think anybody will
:11:22. > :11:24.trust their own electorate sufficiently at any particular
:11:25. > :11:33.point. They will look at hours with great interest. And they will say,
:11:34. > :11:36.don't go there. Before we go, a sad morning today. We learned that
:11:37. > :11:42.veteran broadcaster Terry Wogan has died at the age of 77 after a short
:11:43. > :11:45.battle with cancer. Over his many years in broadcasting, he
:11:46. > :11:47.interviewed a great number of people, including politicians. He
:11:48. > :11:53.really is talking to Margaret Thatcher.
:11:54. > :12:03.What do the next ten years hold for us and for our Prime Minister?
:12:04. > :12:10.Mrs Margaret Thatcher. You ever apprehensive? Are you ever nervous
:12:11. > :12:14.before you get up and speak? Always. And you would not speak well if you
:12:15. > :12:19.were not. I have been answering questions in the House every Tuesday
:12:20. > :12:24.and Thursday for ten years. And I am still just as nervous as I was at
:12:25. > :12:29.the beginning. It requires immense preparation. You have seen your
:12:30. > :12:36.share of trouble and strife and success. What have been your worst
:12:37. > :12:39.moments? The worst moment on totally was when the Argentinians invaded
:12:40. > :12:44.the Falkland Islands. I will never forget it. With the worries and some
:12:45. > :12:52.of the terrible problems you have had, do you have any time for
:12:53. > :12:58.personal worries? We have been very lucky. You know Dennis very well.
:12:59. > :13:05.You both belong to Lord's Tavern is. Everyone knows Dennis. He is
:13:06. > :13:11.marvellous! Why did your audience laugh when you mentioned him? He is
:13:12. > :13:13.held in great affection by everyone because he has the tremendous knack
:13:14. > :13:18.for saying things people would love to say but they're not.
:13:19. > :13:20.Terry Wogan, one of the most accomplished and professional,
:13:21. > :13:26.charming broadcasters in modern times. Sadly died this morning. We
:13:27. > :13:32.learn from his family. Terry Wogan. That is it for today. I thank all of
:13:33. > :13:36.my guests. The daily politics will be on BBC Two from noon tomorrow and
:13:37. > :13:40.every day next week, including Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday. I
:13:41. > :13:43.am back your macro same time, same place next week. We will know more
:13:44. > :13:46.about the American election campaign by them. If it is Sunday, it is the
:13:47. > :13:52.Sunday Politics.