:00:00. > :00:41.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.David Cameron says a manifesto shouldn't be a "wish list,
:00:45. > :00:49.He says he's been ticking off the commitments his manifesto made,
:00:50. > :00:53.Well, today we launch our own Manifesto Tracker and we'll be
:00:54. > :00:57.talking to the minister responsible for implementing it.
:00:58. > :01:00.The Government wants to crack down on the gender pay gap.
:01:01. > :01:03.But is it really as bad as everyone seems to make out?
:01:04. > :01:08.We'll be talking to TUC General Secretary Frances O'Grady.
:01:09. > :01:10.And we'll be asking who's wooing who
:01:11. > :01:14.in the putative Tory leadership contest?
:01:15. > :01:22.Later in the programme: The head of the British Army tells us there's
:01:23. > :01:25.been a culture of change in the forces, following a series
:01:26. > :01:40.And with me, as always, a match made in heaven.
:01:41. > :01:42.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Tim Shipman,
:01:43. > :01:44.who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:45. > :01:51.First, this morning let's turn to the situation in Syria.
:01:52. > :01:55.A nationwide "cessation of hostilities" is due
:01:56. > :01:58.But, despite that agreement, the prospects for peace
:01:59. > :02:02.The truce does not apply to the battle against what Russia
:02:03. > :02:04.calls terrorist targets and means it will continue its heavy bombing
:02:05. > :02:11.Meanwhile, Turkey has shelled Kurdish positions in Northern Syria
:02:12. > :02:14.and the Turkish Foreign Minister has said his country is pondering
:02:15. > :02:19.This morning, the Foreign Secretary said Russia had to begin complying
:02:20. > :02:24.The situation in Aleppo is extremely worrying,
:02:25. > :02:26.the Russians are using carpet-bombing
:02:27. > :02:29.tactics, indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas
:02:30. > :02:36.Yes, we demand that the Russians comply with their obligations under
:02:37. > :02:39.international law and their obligations under the UN
:02:40. > :02:48.Security Council resolutions that they have signed up to.
:02:49. > :02:56.Nick, you get a feeling that given this deal was signed in Munich, it
:02:57. > :03:01.it is living up to deal is signed in Munich reputations. When we hear the
:03:02. > :03:04.Foreign Secretary saying we demand Russian do something when they are
:03:05. > :03:11.creating facts on the ground and we are not, that will have a hollow
:03:12. > :03:15.ring. Russia is now. President's Asad air force. They have ensured
:03:16. > :03:20.that President Assad cannot lose this war but he cannot also win it.
:03:21. > :03:26.They have the air force but no forces on the ground. Now that
:03:27. > :03:30.President Assad cannot lose this war has changed the dynamics. We can
:03:31. > :03:35.whistle in the wind as much as we like but Russia is the reality and
:03:36. > :03:40.power. Sir Roderick Lyne, the former UK ambassador to Moscow was on radio
:03:41. > :03:44.five this morning and he said we should not get too carried away with
:03:45. > :03:48.quite how powerful Russia is, they don't have troops on the ground,
:03:49. > :03:53.they have a faltering economy and they are nervous about going into
:03:54. > :03:57.far because of the disaster of Afghanistan 35 years ago. They do
:03:58. > :04:03.have some troops on the ground, they have proxy forces on the ground from
:04:04. > :04:07.Hezbollah and the uranium National Guard. Although they can't take back
:04:08. > :04:11.the whole of Syria, they will take back enough of it -- Iranians
:04:12. > :04:15.National Guard. Making success in the south, the border with Turkey,
:04:16. > :04:19.controlling the Mediterranean coastline. When they have done that,
:04:20. > :04:24.they might be serious about peace talks. Then they are stuck with it.
:04:25. > :04:28.It is not clear if Vladimir Putin thinks beyond tomorrow. It is not
:04:29. > :04:33.clear what the long-term strategy could do. It could be like the
:04:34. > :04:37.Russian invasion of Afghanistan, an absolute disaster. President Assad
:04:38. > :04:41.is saying that they intend to take over the whole of the country,
:04:42. > :04:46.entirely unrealistic. There will be some sort of partition. What is
:04:47. > :04:48.happening is very frightening in the sense that everybody is fighting a
:04:49. > :04:58.proxy war, the Iranians and Saudis. The one thing that people keep
:04:59. > :05:01.saying is Barack Obama was so weak that it is quite unclear what he
:05:02. > :05:05.could have done. Perhaps he could have given Syria's weapons to the
:05:06. > :05:11.more moderate rebels. Hillary Clinton wanted him to do that in
:05:12. > :05:15.July 2012. She put a plan together along with the general and he turned
:05:16. > :05:18.it down. What would have happened is that they would be shooting down
:05:19. > :05:23.Russian planes with American weapons. Or Russia might not have
:05:24. > :05:28.gone to war. We don't know. Everything has a dynamic to it. This
:05:29. > :05:32.dynamic is leaving the west pretty much as onlookers. It is clear that
:05:33. > :05:38.at least in the short-term, Mr Putin will get back enough ground for
:05:39. > :05:43.Assad to then say we have got rid of a lot of these "Terrorists" because
:05:44. > :05:47.they are not Islamic state. It is now asked versus Islamic State.
:05:48. > :05:51.Exactly, we sound like the mouse that squeaked this morning. I
:05:52. > :05:56.disagree with Polly. One of the great powers in the world has now
:05:57. > :06:01.got very involved in a situation and the other hasn't. President Obama
:06:02. > :06:06.had options. He did not explore them to any sort of extent that it put
:06:07. > :06:16.off the Russians. Britain is left on the sidelines, waiting for a new US
:06:17. > :06:18.president, to get engaged in this issue and do something proactive.
:06:19. > :06:21.What could have been done that would have been any use at all? Either
:06:22. > :06:25.useless or worse than useless, stuck us in there... He did say he had
:06:26. > :06:29.chemical weapons and it was an important red Line. And he let them
:06:30. > :06:34.cross the red line. He totally ignored it. What would you have done
:06:35. > :06:38.that would have been useful? You could have set up a humanitarian
:06:39. > :06:42.safe haven and protected it with force and armed the rebels to deter
:06:43. > :06:47.the Russians and make it a situation where Assad could not continue. We
:06:48. > :06:52.now have a situation where Assad is now a fact of life, he is not going
:06:53. > :06:56.anywhere. There is not much you can do without you were serious
:06:57. > :06:57.involvement. I am glad we touched on Syria, it is an important developing
:06:58. > :06:59.story. Now, what's black and white
:07:00. > :07:01.and not read all over? Even if you did read it,
:07:02. > :07:07.would you be able to remember all the promises and whether
:07:08. > :07:09.the Government had delivered them? Today, we're launching our very
:07:10. > :07:14.own Manifesto Tracker, which charts the progress
:07:15. > :07:15.of the pledges Sort of like a blue virtual
:07:16. > :07:19.Edstone, or maybe not! Over the next four years,
:07:20. > :07:27.we'll be monitoring the Government's progress on all of the commitments
:07:28. > :07:30.the Conservatives made ahead of the 2015 general election
:07:31. > :07:34.in their manifesto, and a few big promises they made
:07:35. > :07:43.during the campaign. So, we've identified 161 pledges,
:07:44. > :07:46.and loaded them into our Manifesto We've grouped them into categories
:07:47. > :07:52.covering all the major areas of Government policy,
:07:53. > :07:53.from the constitution And we've given each
:07:54. > :08:01.of the promises a colour rating. Red signalling little
:08:02. > :08:06.or no progress so far. Amber when the Government
:08:07. > :08:09.has made some progress. Let's start by looking
:08:10. > :08:15.at the Conservative commitments As you can see they've made at least
:08:16. > :08:25.some progress on all of them. Easily the party's biggest promise
:08:26. > :08:27.here was to hold a referendum on Britain's membership
:08:28. > :08:33.of the EU by December 2017. We've marked that amber,
:08:34. > :08:35.to show that some progress The bill setting the vote has passed
:08:36. > :08:42.through Parliament and it's looking likely the poll will
:08:43. > :08:46.be held this year. The cornerstone of the Conservative
:08:47. > :08:48.election campaign last May was how they would handle the economy,
:08:49. > :08:53.and as you can see, that's where we've found the greatest
:08:54. > :08:59.number of promises. Let's look at one of the policies
:09:00. > :09:02.they identified as part of their plan to
:09:03. > :09:06.eliminate the deficit. That was to reduce the welfare
:09:07. > :09:10.bill by ?12 billion. Again, we've given
:09:11. > :09:14.that an amber rating. The savings were outlined
:09:15. > :09:16.in the Chancellor's Autumn Statement But it's too early to say
:09:17. > :09:25.if they'll all be achieved. When it comes to the constitution,
:09:26. > :09:27.the Government's made some progress But it promised to scrap
:09:28. > :09:35.the Human Rights Act, and replace it That gets a red rating,
:09:36. > :09:41.as although there have been reports something is in the pipeline,
:09:42. > :09:44.as yet there is no sign of the legislation
:09:45. > :09:50.required to introduce it. Some manifesto commitments have
:09:51. > :09:54.already been delivered in full. Like the introduction of English
:09:55. > :09:57.votes for English laws to give English MPs a veto over laws that
:09:58. > :10:06.only affect England. Other changes promised in
:10:07. > :10:08.the manifesto are less well known. Like the promise to recover
:10:09. > :10:11.?500 million from migrants and overseas visitors who use
:10:12. > :10:13.the NHS by the middle We will give that amber,
:10:14. > :10:21.because some new charges have already been introduced,
:10:22. > :10:23.and the Department of Health Let's add on the rest
:10:24. > :10:31.of the promises in each of the policy areas and have a look
:10:32. > :10:33.at how the government Taken together, of the 161
:10:34. > :10:42.Conservative election commitments, we think ten are red,
:10:43. > :10:51.111 are amber, and 40 are green. We'll be returning to the manifesto
:10:52. > :10:53.tracker every few months, but in the meantime you can find
:10:54. > :10:56.the full data on the politics And with us now the Cabinet Office
:10:57. > :11:08.Minister and Paymaster General, Matt Hancock, he oversees
:11:09. > :11:18.the implementation Welcome to the programme, do you
:11:19. > :11:22.regard this manifesto as a contract with the British people and do you
:11:23. > :11:25.intend to intimate it all? It is certainly the commitments on which
:11:26. > :11:31.we were elected. We take it incredibly seriously -- goals to
:11:32. > :11:36.implement it. That is the goal. We have got about a quarter delivered,
:11:37. > :11:41.we have had less than a year. In fact, I really welcome this scrutiny
:11:42. > :11:48.and this project you have been on. We will implement and publish our
:11:49. > :11:51.own plans and make sure that each individual manifesto commitment has
:11:52. > :11:56.an individual minister responsible for delivering it. And publish that.
:11:57. > :12:00.We will nationalise you and this process. You will nationalise us? We
:12:01. > :12:04.can't afford you, probably, but we will do this as a government. Let's
:12:05. > :12:08.see if you still want to do that at the end of this interview. Your
:12:09. > :12:12.manifesto promised to scrap Labour's Human Rights Act and replace it with
:12:13. > :12:15.a British Bill of Rights, and abolition Bill would be drafted
:12:16. > :12:21.within the first hundred days after the election. It didn't happen. Why?
:12:22. > :12:26.The work is in progress. Internally, we will publish it. Why have you not
:12:27. > :12:30.kept to the timetable? The timetable of the whole manifesto is to deliver
:12:31. > :12:34.within the parliament. You said this would be done, the draft bill within
:12:35. > :12:40.the first 100 days. Clearly, we will deliver against the commitment. I
:12:41. > :12:45.thought it was a bit harsh to call that read, I would call that Amber.
:12:46. > :12:50.It is not delivered yet. We called it red because the justice minister,
:12:51. > :12:54.Mr Bove, said the consultation had been delayed yet again. The question
:12:55. > :12:59.is what we deliver over the five-year parliament. -- Mr Gove. We
:13:00. > :13:02.are less than a year in and we have got one quarter delivered and that
:13:03. > :13:05.is one where there is work in progress but we are committed to
:13:06. > :13:11.doing it. The manifesto promised to make the UK's Supreme Court "The
:13:12. > :13:16.ultimate arbiter of human rights in the UK". That will not happen. This
:13:17. > :13:21.is all part of the same package which we have committed to
:13:22. > :13:26.delivering. We are less than a year in and we have a few years to go.
:13:27. > :13:31.Whatever the package, the Supreme Court will not be "The ultimate
:13:32. > :13:36.arbiter" on human rights, will it? That is part of the proposed
:13:37. > :13:41.package, as part of the replacement of the Human Rights Act. We will get
:13:42. > :13:47.to that. There is a bigger picture, which is making sure that we deliver
:13:48. > :13:50.on the overall set of commitments in the manifesto where we are making
:13:51. > :13:54.good progress. But, you can enhance the role of the Cyprian Court on
:13:55. > :13:58.human rights, I understand that. Maybe the British Bill of Rights
:13:59. > :14:02.will do their -- Supreme Court. But at the end of the day, the European
:14:03. > :14:06.Court of Human Rights is the ultimate arbiter. That is the
:14:07. > :14:10.factual legal situation. It all depends on the changes that you
:14:11. > :14:13.make. We will bring forward a package of changes to be able to
:14:14. > :14:18.deliver against these commitments in the Parliament. Mr Gove says we are
:14:19. > :14:21.not planning to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights.
:14:22. > :14:25.Let's see what happens when we published the proposals on this
:14:26. > :14:30.particular package. Immigration, probably your biggest fail, I would
:14:31. > :14:34.suggest. The 2050 manifesto repeated the pledge in the 2010 manifesto to
:14:35. > :14:39.get annual net migration down to tens of thousands -- 2015. After
:14:40. > :14:45.five years, far from getting it down, net migration reached a record
:14:46. > :14:52.336,000 last year, that is a spectacular failure. Clearly, this
:14:53. > :14:55.is a commitment. To get immigration down to tens of thousands, that
:14:56. > :15:03.remains the goal. But we haven't yet reached it. Presumably you did not
:15:04. > :15:07.call that green. No. It is red. That the commitment remains because we
:15:08. > :15:10.think it is reasonable to control immigration in this country, so that
:15:11. > :15:14.while some immigration can be very good for the economy and more
:15:15. > :15:19.broadly, actually it has got to be done at a reasonable level.
:15:20. > :15:24.It's not just that you didn't get it down enough, it's actually risen
:15:25. > :15:28.since you came to power. Why would you promise what you have failed
:15:29. > :15:34.dismally to deliver again? I think it is a reasonable goal. Clearly we
:15:35. > :15:41.put it in the manifesto for a reason, to get immigration down. And
:15:42. > :15:45.we are less than a year into the Parliament and we've got four years
:15:46. > :15:50.to go. Is it a goal or a pledge? Do you pledge to the British people
:15:51. > :15:55.today that net migration will be down to the tens of thousands by
:15:56. > :15:59.2020? Well I pledge to fulfil what was in the manifesto on which I and
:16:00. > :16:04.every other Conservative MPs was elected. Well that pledge was to get
:16:05. > :16:10.it down to the tens of thousands. It was meant to be in the tens of
:16:11. > :16:15.thousands by 2015, it is 346,000, is there a pledge that it will be down
:16:16. > :16:19.to the tens of thousands by 2020? There is a whole series of actions
:16:20. > :16:24.that we are taking, not least the EU renegotiation to try to tackle
:16:25. > :16:29.immigration and make sure that it's brought down to a reasonable level.
:16:30. > :16:34.Again there is a broader point, of the 160 odd commitments that you are
:16:35. > :16:37.measuring, delivering an accord of them, of course some are quicker
:16:38. > :16:41.than others to deliver on, it's fair to say. But the whole point of
:16:42. > :16:46.having the manifesto and tracking it as we are doing is to make sure we
:16:47. > :16:53.know where we are up to. Lets come onto the European negotiations, that
:16:54. > :16:57.was in the manifesto. The manifesto promised several key things in the
:16:58. > :17:02.renegotiation, a four-year ban on EU migrants claiming in work benefits,
:17:03. > :17:06.a new residency requirement for social housing, and no child benefit
:17:07. > :17:13.for EU migrants if their children live abroad. The draft deal contains
:17:14. > :17:19.none of these things. Well, firstly, as you say, the centrepiece of our
:17:20. > :17:22.European policy was to have the referendum, and we will be having
:17:23. > :17:25.the referendum. Although you call that Amber it is certainly going to
:17:26. > :17:29.happen. I understand that but none of the things you said we would get
:17:30. > :17:39.to vote on in this referendum have been delivered. We then sat out --
:17:40. > :17:42.set out what we wanted to negotiate and that negotiation is not
:17:43. > :17:46.complete. We have a lot of work to do this week to get the best
:17:47. > :17:49.possible deal we can. I hope we will have a good deal and be able to vote
:17:50. > :17:56.to stay in a reformed Europe. There is a version of the ban on EU
:17:57. > :18:00.migrants benefits, there is not no child benefits, now there will be 28
:18:01. > :18:04.different child benefits that Britain will pay but there is no
:18:05. > :18:10.mention of residency requirement for social housing, no mention of that
:18:11. > :18:13.in the deal, so that has gone? Look, we don't know the outcome of this
:18:14. > :18:17.negotiation until the end of this week. There is a week of hard work
:18:18. > :18:23.to get the deal. But there is a bigger picture here. Social housing
:18:24. > :18:29.is not on the agenda? Let's see what we get in this deal over the next
:18:30. > :18:33.week. But there's a bigger point here, which is that we said we'd
:18:34. > :18:36.have the renegotiation, lots and lots of people said you are never
:18:37. > :18:41.going to get these things on the table. A question of in work
:18:42. > :18:46.benefits, child benefit, we were told you couldn't even put that on
:18:47. > :18:50.the agenda. The discussion in Europe this week is exactly how far we go
:18:51. > :18:53.on those. People said that we couldn't deliver anything in this
:18:54. > :18:57.space and we've managed to deliver already the draft deal, and we will
:18:58. > :19:01.see where we end up. But not what was in the manifesto. We will see
:19:02. > :19:05.where we end up at the end of this week. We will indeed. Not
:19:06. > :19:09.necessarily next week but in the weeks ahead we will be coming back
:19:10. > :19:12.to go through this. Onto the economy, you put in place a charter
:19:13. > :19:18.for budget responsibility which commits you to running a surplus, a
:19:19. > :19:21.legal obligation as well as a policy. The in situ for fiscal
:19:22. > :19:24.studies says that will require tax rises or spending cuts as yet
:19:25. > :19:30.unannounced, do you agree? Not in the latest financial forecast put
:19:31. > :19:32.out by the office for budget responsible to who independently
:19:33. > :19:36.advise on these, and we have a budget in just over a month's time
:19:37. > :19:40.so we will see what the figures say, then. Clearly in the latest forecast
:19:41. > :19:47.from the government, yes, we have that surplus. You have not hit a
:19:48. > :19:54.surplus. We have hit it in the forecast. And they change. They do,
:19:55. > :19:59.as the economy changes. On that economic front there was an awful
:20:00. > :20:02.lot in the manifesto on that, it is all about economic security,
:20:03. > :20:06.generating jobs, in the same way that the national Security ones were
:20:07. > :20:09.all about national security. And those were the two elements at the
:20:10. > :20:14.heart of this manifesto that we were elected on. I would say that we are
:20:15. > :20:18.delivering very strongly on both. In terms of the big picture of what you
:20:19. > :20:22.are getting from the message that we said we were going to deliver. Let
:20:23. > :20:26.me come down to the smaller but still very important picture. You
:20:27. > :20:30.have a legal obligation to reach a surplus by 2020. If, to reach that
:20:31. > :20:37.surplus, you had to raise taxes, would you? Look, much as I'd love
:20:38. > :20:42.to, I'm not going to set out tax policy on Sunday morning. To meet
:20:43. > :20:45.the legal obligation, if it required tax increases, would there be tax
:20:46. > :20:49.increases? We've set out the plans and the plans hit a surplus. We did
:20:50. > :20:55.that in the Autumn Statement in November. Clearly the economy
:20:56. > :20:58.changes all the time, internationally, people have seen
:20:59. > :21:04.falls in the stock market in the last few months. But we will have a
:21:05. > :21:08.budget in more than a month's time. But I voted to have that surplus and
:21:09. > :21:14.that is clearly what we will set out to do. You promised a lower tax
:21:15. > :21:20.society. Yes. Yet on the forecast, the overall tax burden is rising as
:21:21. > :21:24.a percentage of GDP and on the forecast, not the buoyancy but extra
:21:25. > :21:28.tax that you have introduced will be ?50 billion higher. So you have
:21:29. > :21:32.previous on this, you could raise taxes again because you already
:21:33. > :21:37.have? Clearly there are some areas where we have tightened things up,
:21:38. > :21:44.especially on tax avoidance. We took an extra ?5 billion from tax
:21:45. > :21:47.avoidance measures. And what about the billions in addition to that? We
:21:48. > :21:51.have reduced the tax burden especially on people in lower wage
:21:52. > :21:54.jobs, they are going to get the national minimum wage but we are
:21:55. > :21:58.well on the way to the manifesto commitment of making sure you don't
:21:59. > :22:05.have to pay any income taxed until you make ?12,500. We have made
:22:06. > :22:08.progress but there is more to do. The manifesto talks about reducing
:22:09. > :22:13.the tax relief on pension contributions for people earning
:22:14. > :22:21.more than ?150,000, people on 45%, the highest income tax band, you are
:22:22. > :22:24.going to cut tax relief on their pension contributions. If you were
:22:25. > :22:31.to also cut the tax relief of those on the 40% rate, that would be
:22:32. > :22:35.breaching the manifesto? There we've done what we said we would do in the
:22:36. > :22:40.manifesto. We've followed the manifesto clearly in terms of the
:22:41. > :22:45.commitment that it made. Outside the manifesto there's always going to be
:22:46. > :22:49.other things that you do. On pension tax review were explicit that it
:22:50. > :22:53.would be those in the 45% wouldn't get it, you didn't mention any other
:22:54. > :22:59.bracket, the imprecation is that it's only the 45%. If you took away
:23:00. > :23:03.tax relief from the 40% taxpayers that would be broken manifesto
:23:04. > :23:08.commitment? That's not how I see it, you can add things to the manifesto.
:23:09. > :23:11.Look at the whole reform programme a massive reform programme which was
:23:12. > :23:15.not in our manifesto because we've built it up as a proposal since
:23:16. > :23:22.then. Likewise the Prime Ministerspeech on social mobility
:23:23. > :23:28.and an tackling an just inequalities -- an just inequalities. We've done
:23:29. > :23:35.a huge amount of that on the autumn. Delivering on the manifesto
:23:36. > :23:38.commitments is absolutely essential. But it is not the only thing you do
:23:39. > :23:43.in government because you respond to events. But the purpose of this
:23:44. > :23:47.interview is to hold your manifesto to account. Hunting, when will you
:23:48. > :23:50.give Parliament the chance to repeal the hunting act. We are committed to
:23:51. > :23:56.doing that. When? In this Parliament. We looked at doing it
:23:57. > :24:01.early on. You dropped that. We decided not to do it then, but we
:24:02. > :24:05.are committed to its. You set a target of ?1 trillion of exports by
:24:06. > :24:12.2020, most forecasters including your own oh BR say you will be at
:24:13. > :24:16.least ?350 billion short. Can we agree that you will not hit that
:24:17. > :24:22.target? It's fair to say that it is stretching target, but it remains
:24:23. > :24:29.our target, our aspiration. But you will miss it. There is an awful lot
:24:30. > :24:33.of work going into achieving it. Thank you for that, come back and we
:24:34. > :24:35.will see the progress in the months ahead. Look forward to it.
:24:36. > :24:37.And remember if you want to see how the government is doing
:24:38. > :24:40.in detail our manifesto tracker is available for you to peruse
:24:41. > :24:47.On Friday, new measures to tackle the pay gap between genders
:24:48. > :24:57.From 2018, companies with more than 250 employees will have
:24:58. > :25:00.to publish the differences in salary between men and women.
:25:01. > :25:02.Businesses failing to address the problem will be named
:25:03. > :25:07.Here's what Women and Equalities Minister Nicky Morgan had to say.
:25:08. > :25:09.Transparency about the gender pay gap in companies and public sector
:25:10. > :25:15.organisations is going to be very important in driving behaviour.
:25:16. > :25:19.So we are going to require companies, under the regulations,
:25:20. > :25:22.companies of over 250 employees, to publish their gender pay gap
:25:23. > :25:30.We, as a government, will then compile those league tables.
:25:31. > :25:33.It will be two fold, one, companies will hopefully,
:25:34. > :25:36.and we expect from the response we have,
:25:37. > :25:39.to think a lot harder about where women are in their workforce.
:25:40. > :25:41.How they are distributed, what they are being paid.
:25:42. > :25:44.But it will also drive applications to work in certain
:25:45. > :25:47.organisations because I think women will look and see what is the gender
:25:48. > :25:49.pay gap in this organisation and is this somewhere
:25:50. > :25:53.And with us now, General Secretary of the TUC, Frances O'Grady.
:25:54. > :26:02.Welcome back. We know there is a gender pay gap. In some age groups,
:26:03. > :26:06.not all, but still in some age groups. Where is the evidence that
:26:07. > :26:13.it is a result of dissemination, of employers not paying properly, as
:26:14. > :26:21.opposed to lifestyle and choices? We still do have this pretty crazy
:26:22. > :26:25.situation where women have Giroud and 80p for everyone pound that men
:26:26. > :26:29.do across the economy. -- where women earn 80p for every pound that
:26:30. > :26:34.men do. This is a welcome step, this initiative, but it is a very small
:26:35. > :26:37.step. It is about reporting, not about telling us why this is going
:26:38. > :26:41.on, not coming up with actions to deal with it. When you dig down from
:26:42. > :26:45.the headline figure, and you have just used one, you begin to see some
:26:46. > :26:50.quite deep-seated cultural issues, not just a matter of economics. The
:26:51. > :26:53.labour market study shows that men tend to work in occupations that pay
:26:54. > :26:58.more, that's been a historic thing. And women in jobs that pay less. For
:26:59. > :27:02.example men in construction, women in retail. Men in computer
:27:03. > :27:07.programming, women in nursing. That is one of the explanations for the
:27:08. > :27:13.page gap. There is certainly still big job separation, but one of the
:27:14. > :27:19.questions we must ask is, is it case of equal values? People paying for
:27:20. > :27:26.the work of equal value. It is illegal to pay anybody less than a
:27:27. > :27:32.man is getting or vice versa, equal pay for equal jobs. For example, why
:27:33. > :27:36.is looking after children considered to be less valuable than mending a
:27:37. > :27:40.car? The problem is, in order for women to prove it, they've got to be
:27:41. > :27:42.able to take employment tribunal claims, and of course we've seen
:27:43. > :27:48.this government introduce very significant fees that have massively
:27:49. > :27:52.reduced the number of women being able to take pay and six
:27:53. > :27:57.dissemination claims. Is on the gender pay gap really a generational
:27:58. > :28:01.matter, and it might be resolving itself? I'd like to show you this
:28:02. > :28:06.chart, here, which looks at different age groups. For women aged
:28:07. > :28:10.40 to 49, there is a gap, it's coming down but there is still a
:28:11. > :28:14.substantial gap. For younger women in the 22 to 29, there is no pay
:28:15. > :28:18.gap, indeed there is some evidence now that the gender pay gap is the
:28:19. > :28:25.other way among younger people than it is amongst men. What I think it
:28:26. > :28:31.shows you is that the real problem kicks in when women have babies.
:28:32. > :28:35.Yes. That's when women are much more likely to work part-time, much more
:28:36. > :28:38.likely to need nurseries, and as we get older and we are looking after
:28:39. > :28:44.elderly parents, too. Elder care as well. Some of those public service
:28:45. > :28:48.cuts are hitting our sure start centres and care for the elderly. I
:28:49. > :28:53.think you hit on something, there. You can begin to see the return of
:28:54. > :28:57.the gender pay gap as women hit their late 20s or early 30s, because
:28:58. > :29:03.the average age that women have their first child is 28 and a half.
:29:04. > :29:07.So that suggests that the policy response will have to be quite
:29:08. > :29:11.sophisticated to get rid of a later developing pay gap. Stopping cuts on
:29:12. > :29:15.this is would help but also helping dads as well. A lot of men nowadays
:29:16. > :29:20.want to be more involved with their children but they need more paid
:29:21. > :29:26.paternity to be able to do that. I want to show you another chart that
:29:27. > :29:32.suggests there are developers. This shows you a figure that is not
:29:33. > :29:36.widely known, there are now every year 100,000 more women applying for
:29:37. > :29:42.university than men. 100,000 more. Women from poor backgrounds are 50%
:29:43. > :29:46.more likely to go to university than men. Women now take most of the
:29:47. > :29:52.first in medicine and law, two professions that are pretty well
:29:53. > :29:56.paid. Again, isn't this sense that, even in the later years, now, the
:29:57. > :30:00.gender pay gap could begin to resolve itself?
:30:01. > :30:07.I really hope so the TUC analysis shows that at this rate of change it
:30:08. > :30:14.would take another 45 years. No, I looked at these figures. Frances
:30:15. > :30:21.O'Grady, you took one year of the pay gap, which strode it came down
:30:22. > :30:26.by 0.2%. Dodt which showed. If you had taken the last ten years it
:30:27. > :30:30.still takes too long but it is not 47 years, that was a propaganda
:30:31. > :30:35.figure. You can't do a trend on one year. Most people agree we need bold
:30:36. > :30:39.action to change it. Given we have agreed that it is a complicated
:30:40. > :30:43.picture and now becomes an issue primarily for women who have taken
:30:44. > :30:48.time off and then go back into the workforce again, get me one thing
:30:49. > :30:53.that the government could do that would stop this gender pay gap
:30:54. > :30:58.re-emerging in their 30s and 40s? Stop cuts to nurseries. Provide a
:30:59. > :31:02.proper system of care for old people, that allows women and men to
:31:03. > :31:06.combine those caring responsibilities with a responsible
:31:07. > :31:10.job. That is what would really make... I can see how it would help.
:31:11. > :31:13.It is about progression and people feeling they can go for that
:31:14. > :31:17.promotion or training course that would get them a better job. And
:31:18. > :31:23.having the confidence to do it, that their life won't fall apart if they
:31:24. > :31:27.tried. If the TUC wanted to be ahead of the curve, should you not now be
:31:28. > :31:31.giving a lot more attention to the growing underperformance of young
:31:32. > :31:34.males, particularly from poorer backgrounds in education and the
:31:35. > :31:41.workforce? That is a looming problem. Believe you me, we do, we
:31:42. > :31:45.do. We've been fighting very hard for not just more apprenticeships
:31:46. > :31:50.but real quality apprenticeships. Equal opportunities for all. That
:31:51. > :31:54.would help. There are a lot of young men who want to be as involved in
:31:55. > :31:58.bringing up their children as their partners do. Why doesn't the TUC
:31:59. > :32:02.practice what it preaches when it comes to gender equality? Only three
:32:03. > :32:07.of the largest ten unions are led by women even though most unions have a
:32:08. > :32:11.female majority membership. Being a national offices in the unions are
:32:12. > :32:16.lower than the percentage of the night union members. Eight out of
:32:17. > :32:21.ten. And seven out of ten unions have women where they are
:32:22. > :32:25.significantly underrepresented on the national executive. Of the TUC
:32:26. > :32:29.delegation is. Even though women are majority membership. As you know,
:32:30. > :32:33.the picture has changed dramatically over the last few years. We do just
:32:34. > :32:39.have three in ten union leaders elected on average. That is a big
:32:40. > :32:42.change, it is a lot better than the board room and a hell of a lot
:32:43. > :32:53.better than many sat around the Cabinet table. It is still not that
:32:54. > :33:02.great. 74% female membership. Only 70% full time. 75% TUC delegation
:33:03. > :33:07.and only 28 on the TUC. Led by a woman general secretary. You have a
:33:08. > :33:10.way to go. For the first time in history it is 50-50. We are
:33:11. > :33:15.committed. We want to work with businesses who want to make that
:33:16. > :33:19.change. I am delighted to say. He loves unions. Thank you.
:33:20. > :33:21.It's just gone 11:30am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:33:22. > :33:24.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:33:25. > :33:40.Coming up here in 20 minutes, The Week Ahead.
:33:41. > :33:42.Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:33:43. > :33:45.The head of the British Army tells us there's
:33:46. > :33:48.been a culture of change in the forces following a series
:33:49. > :33:51.And the day for lovers, we look at that peculiar
:33:52. > :33:52.political coupling up - coalitions.
:33:53. > :33:55.But first, the head of the British Army is a man
:33:56. > :33:59.Making sure soldiers are ready at a moment's notice to be deployed
:34:00. > :34:03.to every corner of the world and to be put in harm's way.
:34:04. > :34:06.But he's also a man with a duty of care for soldiers when they're
:34:07. > :34:10.And it's fair to say that on that front, there have been failures
:34:11. > :34:12.which have affected soldiers from Wales.
:34:13. > :34:14.We've spoken with General Sir Nicholas Carter about that
:34:15. > :34:17.and the possibility of troops on the ground in Syria.
:34:18. > :34:20.The man in charge of the Army, General Sir Nicolas Carter,
:34:21. > :34:23.has served in Northern Ireland and Kosovo and commanded brigades
:34:24. > :34:31.He took over as the Chief of the General Staff
:34:32. > :34:35.He is in charge of an army which has had a difficult
:34:36. > :34:39.Shortcomings have been highlighted on several occasions.
:34:40. > :34:41.Earlier this year, a coroner found the Army's chain
:34:42. > :34:44.of command failed to prevent unlawful physical punishments known
:34:45. > :34:47.as beastings, which led to the death of a soldier,
:34:48. > :34:50.Private Gavin Williams from Caerphilly.
:34:51. > :34:54.In 2013, three SAS reservists died on a
:34:55. > :34:56.training match in the Brecon Beacons.
:34:57. > :35:00.According to the coroner, they died as a result of neglect.
:35:01. > :35:03.The inquest into the death of Cheryl James from Llangollen
:35:04. > :35:06.who died in the Deepcut Army barracks 20 years ago,
:35:07. > :35:14.Our correspondent Daniel Davies began
:35:15. > :35:15.by asking General Carter about Wales's importance
:35:16. > :35:18.Wales is very important to the British Army,
:35:19. > :35:21.not least because it punches well above its weight in terms
:35:22. > :35:24.of the soldiers it sends as but also because we've got a lot
:35:25. > :35:28.We've got a lot of ranges, we've got people who serve
:35:29. > :35:31.That relationship with the community is really important to us.
:35:32. > :35:36.In Wales recently we have had some high profile inquests of service
:35:37. > :35:43.people who have died at base or in training exercises.
:35:44. > :35:45.The Army has been severely criticised on a couple
:35:46. > :35:49.Does that dent the reputation of the Army in Wales?
:35:50. > :35:53.I think the two instances you refer to are both ones
:35:54. > :35:58.I would like to say I think it would be difficult
:35:59. > :36:00.for those sorts of things to happen again because we have
:36:01. > :36:03.changed our culture, we have recently issued a new code
:36:04. > :36:05.of leadership which is something I feel very strongly about.
:36:06. > :36:07.I would be surprised if it is occurred again.
:36:08. > :36:10.I'm not saying it can't happen because of course it can.
:36:11. > :36:13.We have put in place a lot of different processes to make sure
:36:14. > :36:15.those sorts of things don't happen in the future.
:36:16. > :36:18.But the case of the three men who died in the Brecon Beacons
:36:19. > :36:22.on SAS training exercise, that wasn't that long
:36:23. > :36:26.No. I wasn't really referring to that.
:36:27. > :36:30.I was referring to the other instance which is in the media
:36:31. > :36:33.No, and that is also extremely dispiriting when something
:36:34. > :36:38.It does call all those responsible to have a really good look
:36:39. > :36:40.at the way they adhere to what are really quite well
:36:41. > :36:43.thought through drills and procedures to how you handle
:36:44. > :36:47.If someone were to look at that case and others
:36:48. > :36:50.and come to the conclusion that being in the Army is not just
:36:51. > :36:54.dangerous in battle but as an employer, it's not safe,
:36:55. > :36:59.I think you have to go back and look at when things
:37:00. > :37:02.I recognise the Brecon thing happened recently but the other
:37:03. > :37:05.instances that have been in the media, one happened ten years
:37:06. > :37:07.ago and the other happened 20 years ago.
:37:08. > :37:10.What I would say is, we are an employer which now we pull
:37:11. > :37:13.very highly in terms of our approval rating.
:37:14. > :37:17.For one or two very small things that have occurred,
:37:18. > :37:20.I don't think you can knock the whole of the Army's reputation
:37:21. > :37:24.But you are trying to change the culture of the Army in other
:37:25. > :37:28.ways and recruit from communities that are underrepresented.
:37:29. > :37:31.Does that not in itself suggest the Army has got a problem?
:37:32. > :37:35.The Army's got a maximise talent and that is
:37:36. > :37:39.With the economy and change in demography
:37:40. > :37:42.and all that goes with that, we are in a position where we have
:37:43. > :37:44.got to become a very modern employer.
:37:45. > :37:48.That requires us to draw from all of Britain's society
:37:49. > :37:52.Part of that, of course, is having a career structure
:37:53. > :37:55.which is flexible and which all sorts of people can serve in.
:37:56. > :37:58.It's about demonstrating the fact we have, we
:37:59. > :38:02.are the largest employer of apprentices in Europe which a lot
:38:03. > :38:07.We offer a career for all sorts of different
:38:08. > :38:10.people in all sorts of different ways which is something that perhaps
:38:11. > :38:15.In terms of our culture, it is about recognising we do have
:38:16. > :38:19.That leadership on operations, I think, is second to none.
:38:20. > :38:22.What I want to do is to make sure that leadership style is translated
:38:23. > :38:24.into the way we lead in peacetime as well.
:38:25. > :38:28.How do you do that given the damage the Army's reputation has
:38:29. > :38:33.I would question the extent to which the Army's
:38:34. > :38:38.It doesn't stand up when you poll and indeed the most recent poll
:38:39. > :38:42.would show as an institution we are liked by some 90%.
:38:43. > :38:45.That was our approval rating which I think the BBC would die
:38:46. > :38:49.The plain fact is we have a good reputation and we will hang
:38:50. > :38:52.All organisations have to adapt and we have to adapt
:38:53. > :38:54.because the generation that is joining the Army
:38:55. > :38:57.now is a different generation to my generation and probably you.
:38:58. > :39:00.The upshot of that is, we have to think hard about how
:39:01. > :39:03.we lead them and the opportunities we provide them.
:39:04. > :39:05.That is why it is healthy to look at our culture,
:39:06. > :39:07.all organisations need to do that all the time.
:39:08. > :39:11.We have world-class junior leaders and I want them to continue
:39:12. > :39:16.There is a big military decision facing British
:39:17. > :39:20.politicians at the moment, whether to renew the nuclear weapons
:39:21. > :39:26.The answer is a political decision, it's not a decision I'm involved in.
:39:27. > :39:28.I think the government has made it clear
:39:29. > :39:31.But there could be another government after the next
:39:32. > :39:34.election and a party, the Labour Party, that hasn't made
:39:35. > :39:39.Do you not give them advice on what you think Britain needs?
:39:40. > :39:42.I might well give them advice when necessary but the fact
:39:43. > :39:43.of the matter is your question is hypothetical.
:39:44. > :39:46.We have the government of today and I think
:39:47. > :39:52.On the threat that Britain faces, what are
:39:53. > :40:00.those threats and is the Army up to facing them in an era of cuts?
:40:01. > :40:05.It might have been but you probably haven't spotted that we had
:40:06. > :40:07.a defence review that culminated in November last year
:40:08. > :40:10.and the Chancellor in July of last year made
:40:11. > :40:13.a commitment to peg defence spending to 2% of GDP.
:40:14. > :40:15.That represents, over the course of this Parliament,
:40:16. > :40:18.an uplift in resources which is very positive.
:40:19. > :40:22.Rather, we've got a government that is investing in its
:40:23. > :40:26.That is having a big impact on the morale of our Armed
:40:27. > :40:28.Forces, in particularly the Army where we're seeing retention
:40:29. > :40:33.But to answer your question on threats, the answer is I cannot
:40:34. > :40:36.remember a time in my lifetime where the world
:40:37. > :40:42.For the head of the Army that means you've got to try and back some
:40:43. > :40:44.horses in terms of what you train to do.
:40:45. > :40:48.Ultimately, it comes down to talented people being able
:40:49. > :40:50.to adaptable because pound to a brass farthing
:40:51. > :40:54.we will get it wrong the first time and the trick is adapting quickly
:40:55. > :40:58.Does Britain need to have troops on the ground in Syria
:40:59. > :41:05.I think it is very difficult to see how that'll play out.
:41:06. > :41:07.Of course, what we need to do when we deploy
:41:08. > :41:10.troops is to be very clear about the purpose of why
:41:11. > :41:14.You can see that in all sorts of places across the world.
:41:15. > :41:16.Is that the lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan
:41:17. > :41:21.where you served in both those countries, where perhaps the end
:41:22. > :41:23.goal of the mission wasn't clear enough?
:41:24. > :41:25.No, I think the goal of the mission was clear enough.
:41:26. > :41:28.It was difficult to deliver and I think the British Army did
:41:29. > :41:30.extraordinarily well given the circumstances.
:41:31. > :41:38.Now, did you get a card this morning?
:41:39. > :41:44.And the idea of coupling up is also on the minds of AMs as it's possible
:41:45. > :41:47.a coalition of some sort will need to be formed after
:41:48. > :41:52.Cemlyn Davies now on what kind of new political partnerships
:41:53. > :42:10.The roses are out, the fizz is on ice.
:42:11. > :42:13.Grand gestures of commitment will be the order of the day.
:42:14. > :42:17.There will be sickly displays of affection too.
:42:18. > :42:22.New relationships could blossom, old flames may be rekindled.
:42:23. > :42:25.And if the opinion polls are anything to go by
:42:26. > :42:30.the dating game may still be enforcing after May's election.
:42:31. > :42:34.They suggest no party will win an overall majority and Labour,
:42:35. > :42:36.who have governed without a majority for
:42:37. > :42:40.the past five years, could end up with fewer seats
:42:41. > :42:44.prompting the party to turn its back on the single life
:42:45. > :42:53.Labour have previously held hands with the Lib Dems and more
:42:54. > :42:59.Valerie Livingstone is a political analyst
:43:00. > :43:04.I think Labour will campaign incredibly hard to get
:43:05. > :43:07.as close to that 30 mark as possible.
:43:08. > :43:09.If they don't quite get there and the Liberal Democrats
:43:10. > :43:13.maintain a few seats in the Senedd, they might look to a coalition
:43:14. > :43:18.Kirsty Williams could be brought into government for a lower cost
:43:19. > :43:22.perhaps to the Welsh Labour Government than any other party.
:43:23. > :43:28.A coalition between Plaid Cymru and Labour could prove quite
:43:29. > :43:32.Plaid Cymru would be the third largest party
:43:33. > :43:33.in the Assembly based on current polling
:43:34. > :43:37.and they would demand seats in the Cabinet.
:43:38. > :43:40.They may also make it difficult for Labour ministers to get
:43:41. > :43:43.through a number of key policy such as the M4 relief road.
:43:44. > :43:48.Do you think that either of those scenarios would lead to a stable
:43:49. > :43:52.government that would last the next five years?
:43:53. > :43:55.I think either a Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition or a
:43:56. > :43:58.Plaid-Cymru Labour coalition is likely to be quite a stable
:43:59. > :44:01.arrangement particularly when we factor in Ukip
:44:02. > :44:05.who are going to be in the Senedd for the first time after this
:44:06. > :44:08.Because no party will want to be seen to destabilise
:44:09. > :44:11.the government when Ukip are the opposition force
:44:12. > :44:17.That of a rainbow coalition made up of Plaid Cymru,
:44:18. > :44:24.It has nearly happened before and last week it emerged Plaid Cymru
:44:25. > :44:26.and the Lib Dems had already been on pre-election
:44:27. > :44:31.dates with the Greens although any talk of a lasting relationship has
:44:32. > :44:36.Plaid Cymru would struggle to enter into any arrangement with the
:44:37. > :44:42.Leader Leanne Wood has already ruled out a coalition
:44:43. > :44:47.But strange things happen after elections and we may
:44:48. > :44:49.see a change of leadership either with the Conservatives or
:44:50. > :44:53.That might lead to changes down the line but at the moment it
:44:54. > :44:58.It has been suggested that 20 seats, a third of the total,
:44:59. > :45:02.could be enough for a party to try governing alone.
:45:03. > :45:05.The SNP did just that with a similar proportion
:45:06. > :45:09.of the Scottish Parliament seats in 2007.
:45:10. > :45:11.The people of Scotland know that this is a minority government
:45:12. > :45:14.and operates in a Parliament therefore different any other
:45:15. > :45:18.elected in the history of this Parliament.
:45:19. > :45:20.It wasn't really expected to last that long
:45:21. > :45:24.but it did and it gave the SNP a toe hold on power they then grew
:45:25. > :45:30.I suspect the situation in Cardiff Bay is very difference
:45:31. > :45:32.because we are looking at Labour being the
:45:33. > :45:36.They have been in government for a very, very long time,
:45:37. > :45:37.as long as anybody can remember.
:45:38. > :45:42.If Labour were to win 20 seats in the Senedd
:45:43. > :45:46.We would be looking at a leadership election so no,
:45:47. > :45:49.I don't think they would manage it on 20 seats but if they were up
:45:50. > :45:55.to 27 28, minority government would be an option for them.
:45:56. > :45:57.Short of a formal relationship, a more casual
:45:58. > :46:02.understanding could also help a party govern without a majority.
:46:03. > :46:04.Confidence and supply is an arrangement we might see
:46:05. > :46:12.But I wonder if we would almost have that without it being spoken about?
:46:13. > :46:15.Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats won't want to be
:46:16. > :46:19.seen to side with the Conservatives and Ukip and therefore Labour can
:46:20. > :46:27.The picture will be much clearer on the 6th of May when we will know
:46:28. > :46:32.Like the most romantic partnership,
:46:33. > :46:41.So much for who might get together but what's it like when you're
:46:42. > :46:45.trying to form a new coalition and indeed when you're
:46:46. > :46:48.Rhodri Morgan, as we saw, formed coalitions with both
:46:49. > :46:51.the Lib Dems and Plaid during his time in charge,
:46:52. > :46:53.while Jenny Willott was a minister in the Conservative-Lib Dem
:46:54. > :47:07.Thank you both for coming in to discuss this. Rhodri Morgan, is a
:47:08. > :47:13.man who has led to coalitions, what is it like? Is it a lots more
:47:14. > :47:17.difficult than minority government? No, not a lot more difficult than
:47:18. > :47:23.minority government. You have a reasonable assurance that you are
:47:24. > :47:26.going to get your budget through and that is of an overwhelming
:47:27. > :47:31.importance. How you going to get your budget through? With Carwyn
:47:32. > :47:35.Jones at the moment, he has relied on the fact he could do a deal with
:47:36. > :47:40.the Lib Dems to the budget through even though he's not in coalition
:47:41. > :47:45.because he is one vote short. He is more settled because it got that
:47:46. > :47:50.certainty. It is not on a piece of paper. You can agree a programme
:47:51. > :47:54.when you are in a coalition that is the key thing. You need to write a
:47:55. > :47:58.Bible on what we have agreeing on over the next two and half years in
:47:59. > :48:04.the first case with the Lib Dems in the year 2000, and for years in the
:48:05. > :48:07.case Plaid Cymru in 2007. You need to set out as much as you possibly
:48:08. > :48:14.can in advance and you not when to get any arguments popping up in 2008
:48:15. > :48:18.or 2009. You have shaken hands on it and then it'll flow throughout the
:48:19. > :48:22.budget and the main items of policy will all be in there. Jenny Willott,
:48:23. > :48:27.as somebody who is in the junior partnership side of it, is it more
:48:28. > :48:32.difficult for the junior partner rather than the larger partner in a
:48:33. > :48:37.coalition? Depends on what you mean by more difficult. Rhodri Morgan is
:48:38. > :48:41.right. One of the real strengths of having a coalition is you negotiate
:48:42. > :48:45.a programme in the beginning and that means you both know where you
:48:46. > :48:50.are going to be heading and you both know what you are going to deliver.
:48:51. > :48:53.That is committed to from the start. It is an advantage for the public
:48:54. > :48:57.because they know what they are going to expect over the term of
:48:58. > :49:00.that parliament or the Assembly which means they can hold their
:49:01. > :49:05.politicians more easily to account for the labelling it or not. Whether
:49:06. > :49:11.it can be very difficult for the junior partner is you don't get the
:49:12. > :49:13.credit for things that are your ideas and the things you have pushed
:49:14. > :49:20.through and made happen. You always get the bane for the popular
:49:21. > :49:24.decisions. -- the blame. That is the case whenever you are, it happens in
:49:25. > :49:31.mainland Europe, the UK and that is a real challenge because you don't
:49:32. > :49:36.have the profile. You can't shout loud enough to claim credit for the
:49:37. > :49:39.things that are yours. There is a reason for that. When you other
:49:40. > :49:43.major party and I'm lucky enough that on both occasions we were the
:49:44. > :49:48.major part of the coalition, what you do is to ensure that you don't
:49:49. > :49:54.take anything out of your manifesto. You allow the minority partner to
:49:55. > :49:59.add to the commitments you have made in your manifesto but you don't
:50:00. > :50:03.anything out of yours. You add. Whereas the minority partner may
:50:04. > :50:06.have to drop something that is in their manifesto and that is what
:50:07. > :50:11.causes the difficulty. That is not Mrs is certainly true. In the
:50:12. > :50:17.coalition agreement in Westminster it was three quarters of the Lib Dem
:50:18. > :50:20.manifesto ended up in the coalition. The Conservatives dropped a huge
:50:21. > :50:28.amount. There was a lot of stuff that was quite unpopular in their
:50:29. > :50:32.manifesto they could do it. Does that make those initial days between
:50:33. > :50:38.the election and forming a government, it was five days in your
:50:39. > :50:44.case, a few weeks in yours, it must be fraught. It was many months. It
:50:45. > :50:48.was 18 months into the first Assembly Government committee was
:50:49. > :50:54.October 2000 when the election had been in May 1999. I had been the
:50:55. > :51:01.first secretary as it was then since February. It's even from the
:51:02. > :51:08.February to October. The budget was having to be... But in 2007 there
:51:09. > :51:12.was an election. There were two months and wearing two months in
:51:13. > :51:17.which there was a dance going on as to whether the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru
:51:18. > :51:20.and the Conservatives would form this rainbow coalition. Whether the
:51:21. > :51:25.Lib Dems would come in with us because of what had happened in the
:51:26. > :51:28.year 2000, 2003 and this issue of not getting any credit, the Lib Dems
:51:29. > :51:32.are nervous about coming in again because they did not feel they got
:51:33. > :51:41.the credit for what they did in the two and half years of the first
:51:42. > :51:44.coalition. They wanted try out a different model. We try to get a
:51:45. > :51:47.coalition with them, it didn't work. The only alternative was the rainbow
:51:48. > :51:50.coalition or us going in with Plaid Cymru which eventually happened. I
:51:51. > :51:54.remember this clearly, will they, won't they? Did you think at some
:51:55. > :51:59.point the game was over and it was going to be the rainbow coalition?
:52:00. > :52:05.It could have happened. Did you think it at the time? You try to
:52:06. > :52:09.pretend that it isn't possible. A little bit like Wales playing
:52:10. > :52:14.Scotland. Could we possibly lose? Yes, theoretically we could vote you
:52:15. > :52:18.don't believe you could be out power. It was a knife edge within
:52:19. > :52:20.the Liberal Democrats at which delegates turned up to their
:52:21. > :52:25.national executive as to whether they turn down the rainbow coalition
:52:26. > :52:29.or whether they approved it was up to be really boring at a point of
:52:30. > :52:34.technicality it came down to a lack of a casting vote of the national
:52:35. > :52:40.executive meeting. Do you think back and think how different it might
:52:41. > :52:44.have then? Do not always what it is after elections. It's what makes it
:52:45. > :52:49.more interesting. Elections are dull and boring if you know who is going
:52:50. > :52:57.to win. Don't say that come with the campaign coming and we need to keep
:52:58. > :53:02.it interesting! It also means that if you have an election where the
:53:03. > :53:06.result is a dead cert, who is motivated to go out and vote? It'll
:53:07. > :53:09.be difficult to get people fired up about it. If you have an election
:53:10. > :53:13.where you're not sure who is going to win which a seat and you're not
:53:14. > :53:16.sure what the numbers are going to be after the election, who is good
:53:17. > :53:20.to form the government, that is likely to get people motivated. It
:53:21. > :53:26.means your vote does make more of a difference and it could affect the
:53:27. > :53:29.outcome of an election. From a party point of view, I don't want to look
:53:30. > :53:35.at what may or may not happen after May because we don't know, having
:53:36. > :53:40.just been in a coalition in Westminster are the party still
:53:41. > :53:44.smarting after the defeat that came after that and might make them less
:53:45. > :53:50.willing to go into a coalition here in Cardiff Bay? I'm sure that is
:53:51. > :53:54.true. We had 57 MPs are now we have eight. It is going to take a while
:53:55. > :54:00.for the emotional hurt to go away and for us to recover and feel
:54:01. > :54:06.positive about it. One of the things that I take away from it personally,
:54:07. > :54:08.I am very, I can still see the things we did in government the
:54:09. > :54:14.Tories would never have done in a million years. Regardless of the
:54:15. > :54:20.impact from a political party in the short time, even the matter the
:54:21. > :54:25.result points going into politics if you known going into power. The only
:54:26. > :54:28.way you change things and make Britain always a better place is if
:54:29. > :54:32.you get into power and you are able to implement what you think is the
:54:33. > :54:38.best way forward. By either doing it in a coalition or if you are lucky
:54:39. > :54:42.enough to have a majority that is when you can change things. I am
:54:43. > :54:48.proud of the things we did when we were in government. It was the right
:54:49. > :54:51.thing for us to do. The points you were making then about it isn't
:54:52. > :54:55.about ditching what is in your manifesto, it is about adding to it,
:54:56. > :55:00.that suggests you are positive about the idea of a coalition because it
:55:01. > :55:06.means more of the political spectrum is represented in government.
:55:07. > :55:12.You make it work if the people of Wales don't give you the majority.
:55:13. > :55:16.You have two negotiate very hard and the final negotiations with Plaid
:55:17. > :55:19.Cymru did go into the second and third decimal place of what we were
:55:20. > :55:28.proposing to do over the following four years. A lots of hard work went
:55:29. > :55:31.into that initial period between June and July and then you hope that
:55:32. > :55:37.by putting in the investment you are not there to have problems down the
:55:38. > :55:42.line in 2008. How difficult was it to keep their discipline? It's Mr
:55:43. > :55:50.bin fraught for the one Wales coalition, was difficult to keep
:55:51. > :55:54.discipline? Not at a Cabinet level but sometimes at a group level and
:55:55. > :56:00.sometimes at the party outside level. It is harder outside. If you
:56:01. > :56:04.are involved in making the decisions you understand what the negotiations
:56:05. > :56:07.have been. You understand what compromises have been made. For
:56:08. > :56:10.ministers it is easier to stick together because you understand why
:56:11. > :56:15.you have come to a particular position. It is natural for Labour
:56:16. > :56:19.AMs who are not in government to think if those Plaid Cymru were not
:56:20. > :56:25.in those coalition is I might have a chance of a ministerial office. So
:56:26. > :56:26.much more to discuss. Thank you both coming in.
:56:27. > :56:28.Don't forget you follow all the latest on Twitter.
:56:29. > :56:41.MPs are on their half term holiday at the moment, so you might be
:56:42. > :56:44.forgiven for thinking we'll be in for a quiet time next week.
:56:45. > :56:49.On Thursday, David Cameron heads to Brussels where he hopes
:56:50. > :56:52.to finalise his deal on Britain's membership of the EU at what's been
:56:53. > :56:57.dubbed the "crunch" European summit.
:56:58. > :57:07.We will see how crunchy it is. Tim, Mr Hammond, the Foreign Secretary
:57:08. > :57:10.this morning, Matthew Hancock on this programme, they both said,
:57:11. > :57:13.let's see what the final deal is because there could be more in it
:57:14. > :57:16.than the draft settlement, more for the British government. I would
:57:17. > :57:22.suggest that the draft settlement for Mr Cameron is as good as it
:57:23. > :57:25.gets. That may well be the case, journalists have been seeking
:57:26. > :57:28.rabbits from hats for many weeks, taking them out, and Eurosceptics
:57:29. > :57:33.have been shooting them long before David Cameron got anywhere near it.
:57:34. > :57:36.One thing I understand David Cameron will do before next weekend, he can
:57:37. > :57:43.explain what he means by this sovereignty lock, the sovereign
:57:44. > :57:47.Parliament will be... That is all smoke and mirrors. It is but it is
:57:48. > :57:51.the one thing he has got left. It is something they can do in domestic
:57:52. > :57:54.law and explain how the Supreme Court here will hold the European
:57:55. > :57:58.Court to the letter of the European treaty. It is effectively getting a
:57:59. > :58:02.British court to say that the European Court is not adhering to
:58:03. > :58:05.its own treaties. If the summit finishes on Friday I suspect he will
:58:06. > :58:08.unveil that either at a press conference or we will see him doing
:58:09. > :58:13.Andrew Marr next Sunday and telling the world all about it. He is going
:58:14. > :58:17.to do Andrew Marr next Sunday. Politically the Prime Minister would
:58:18. > :58:22.be in trouble with his own party if this deal was further watered down,
:58:23. > :58:25.wouldn't he? He needed to be strengthened. I'm hearing stories
:58:26. > :58:31.coming out of Brussels saying there is a rabbit or two, but whether they
:58:32. > :58:36.are tiny little rabbits or great big ones I don't know. I think this is a
:58:37. > :58:40.campaign that will be won by fear, not by terrific bribes and isn't the
:58:41. > :58:46.deal wonderful? What Philip Hammond said this morning was very
:58:47. > :58:49.important, that if we vote to leave, Europe will make sure our conditions
:58:50. > :58:55.are as bad as possible for fear of the whole thing falling apart, other
:58:56. > :58:58.countries peeling off. That's the serious threat. The idea that we
:58:59. > :59:03.will get a wonderful deal out of Europe or that France will go on
:59:04. > :59:06.being our border guards and look after our camp in Calais, I think
:59:07. > :59:12.it's those sorts of fears that will win it. If Mr Sarkozy wins in
:59:13. > :59:17.France, it could change the camp whether we are in or outcome he is
:59:18. > :59:21.campaigning on that. He could, that's true. Next year is next year.
:59:22. > :59:28.The problem with all these things, like the out campaign saying if in,
:59:29. > :59:34.Europe will react like this, none of that is provable until it happens.
:59:35. > :59:42.We had a close colleague of Angela Merkel today warning that it would
:59:43. > :59:45.be bloody, our terms, if we leave. And why shouldn't they say that?
:59:46. > :59:54.There's no point in issuing the threat afterwards. If they want to
:59:55. > :59:57.threaten, now is the time. Doesn't mean he's not a good man just
:59:58. > :00:01.because we haven't heard from him, but we haven't. It seems, I was
:00:02. > :00:06.suggesting, that Michael Gove, in terms of which Cabinet ministers are
:00:07. > :00:09.going to go with remain and which ones are going to go without, it
:00:10. > :00:15.seems that Michael Gove is becoming the pivotal figure, here.
:00:16. > :00:18.Suggestions that if he decides to go out, and apparently he is incredibly
:00:19. > :00:22.anguished about this, Boris Johnson could well follow. If he doesn't,
:00:23. > :00:27.they might not. Michael Gove is genuinely torn. Downing Street were
:00:28. > :00:31.very confident at the beginning of this year that Michael Gove would be
:00:32. > :00:35.with the Prime Minister. But anybody that has no Michael Gove, and are
:00:36. > :00:39.used to be his colleague, he will know that in his heart of hearts he
:00:40. > :00:42.would like to get Britain out of the European Union, it is as simple as
:00:43. > :00:45.that. At he knows that if he campaigns to take Britain out of
:00:46. > :00:50.Europe, what he is essentially doing is joining a campaign which, if
:00:51. > :00:54.successful, will destroy David Cameron's Korea, and George
:00:55. > :00:58.Osborne's and hand the Tory leadership to the two people in the
:00:59. > :01:03.Conservative Party he loathes more than anybody else, Theresa May and
:01:04. > :01:07.Boris Johnson. So he is torn. The thing about Boris Johnson, in his
:01:08. > :01:11.heart of hearts, believes Britain should be in the European Union. But
:01:12. > :01:15.there is one thing Boris Johnson believes more than that, which is
:01:16. > :01:19.that Boris Johnson should be Prime Minister. Therefore he needs to do
:01:20. > :01:25.what is best for that, which is why he needs this sort of thing.
:01:26. > :01:29.Grateful for that blinding revelation that Boris Johnson wants
:01:30. > :01:34.to be Prime Minister. If Cameron can keep Michael Gove on board, there
:01:35. > :01:39.will be fewer defections other than the usual suspects? I think that's
:01:40. > :01:42.right. Somebody described him to me as the big Domino and if he falls,
:01:43. > :01:49.others could. Cameron is trying quite hard. He had Gove in last week
:01:50. > :01:54.trying to persuade him. What they think they've got is an enlargement
:01:55. > :01:58.from Gove that if he does opt to follow his conscience and vote out
:01:59. > :02:01.he will not do much campaigning. I suspect he would do one interview
:02:02. > :02:05.and sit the thing out, and they think if he is not out there leading
:02:06. > :02:09.it, that will not do quite as much damage. We know Alan Johnson is
:02:10. > :02:14.heading up the labour effort to stay in, but is Jeremy Corbyn really
:02:15. > :02:18.going to campaign hard to stay in? Is the Labour Party going to spend
:02:19. > :02:24.money on this campaign? I very much doubt it. It's not in his heart. His
:02:25. > :02:28.instincts are to pick up the wrong issue, today there he is saying that
:02:29. > :02:32.he thinks Cameron is wrong on immigration, we should have much
:02:33. > :02:36.easier immigration, he shouldn't be trying to cut back the number of EU
:02:37. > :02:40.migrants coming into the country. That is no way to win it, I presume
:02:41. > :02:48.he knows it. It's very important that Labour voters are brought on
:02:49. > :02:52.board. Mr Cameron needs them, too. Cameron really needs Labour voters.
:02:53. > :02:56.It ought to be the great, strong, uniting message for Labour.
:02:57. > :03:00.Virtually all Labour MPs are strongly in favour part from a
:03:01. > :03:04.maverick hand. Quite the clear majority of the Parliamentary party.
:03:05. > :03:08.It should have been a big contrast, Labour pro-European, Tories all over
:03:09. > :03:12.the place. I'm afraid Jeremy Corbyn will muddy that.
:03:13. > :03:29.final debate when he laid into the European Union. He hates the new
:03:30. > :03:37.free trade area. He said he would support our membership but push four
:03:38. > :03:41.reform from within. A few days before the big summit which is meant
:03:42. > :03:46.to clinch it one way or the other are we heading for a June 23
:03:47. > :03:50.referendum? Almost certainly and thank God. So we can plan our summer
:03:51. > :03:55.holidays and ministers and advisers feel the same. Never mind about the
:03:56. > :03:59.needs of the nation. It looks like there will be some kind of deal and
:04:00. > :04:04.they may give him a bit more in some areas. Cameron is determined to
:04:05. > :04:07.press on with this, he does not want this hanging over his government.
:04:08. > :06:30.Every Monday he Will have backed out of the
:06:31. > :06:35.referendum, that is a factor in several politicians cut relations
:06:36. > :06:42.right now. As I discovered, the front runners have been very coy
:06:43. > :06:56.about it all. What is this about? A programme about the Tory leadership.
:06:57. > :06:59.What on earth is the relevance of that to your
:07:00. > :07:02.many millions of viewers when you consider that there is no,
:07:03. > :07:03.thankfully, thankfully, and there is no vacancy
:07:04. > :07:07.Nor is there going to be one for a very long time.
:07:08. > :07:13.Oh well, maybe I'll get lucky with some of the other
:07:14. > :07:16.Apparently, Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, might
:07:17. > :07:18.Speculation surrounds the Welsh Secretary,
:07:19. > :07:19.Stephen Crabb, Education Secretary Nicky Morgan
:07:20. > :07:21.once a female candidate, preferably her.
:07:22. > :07:23.Defra Secretary, Liz Truss is repeated to be ambitious.
:07:24. > :07:24.There are mutterings about Business Secretary,
:07:25. > :07:27.Sajid Javid, but is he really angling to be the next
:07:28. > :07:32.And is a leadership bid while Michael Gove is swinging over
:07:33. > :07:34.which side to back in the referendum.
:07:35. > :07:39.Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom is holding surgeries in the Commons
:07:40. > :07:42.tearoom and a mystery member of the 2015 intake is rumoured
:07:43. > :07:44.to have big plans and Employment Minister and arch
:07:45. > :07:46.Eurosceptic Priti Patel is expected to have a profile-boosting
:07:47. > :07:52.role in the Out Campaign and then there is Liam Fox.
:07:53. > :07:57.This week, a poll on the website run by
:07:58. > :07:59.Paul Goodman found that the former Defence Secretary was favourite
:08:00. > :08:11.If you speculate that the hard right of Conservative Party membership,
:08:12. > :08:16.is about a fifth of it, that sounds fair enough.
:08:17. > :08:19.What was remarkable about his score was in fact how low it was,
:08:20. > :08:21.it was the joint-lowest score for a leading
:08:22. > :08:27.A lot of this is total nonsense, but it presages
:08:28. > :08:30.potentially three years of Tory leadership gossip for the people
:08:31. > :08:58.The Tory party would be in a leadership crisis but the country
:08:59. > :09:04.would be in a huge political crisis. It would go on for years. It would
:09:05. > :09:09.take at least smack years of very painful negotiations, maybe longer,
:09:10. > :09:13.to get us out of these treaties. Nobody has done it before, nobody
:09:14. > :09:20.knows what it would look like. Cameron would have to go. The
:09:21. > :09:24.humiliation would be appalling. Osborne's chances would be shot to
:09:25. > :09:29.pieces. By then, the country might have changed its mind and be upset
:09:30. > :09:33.by having narrowly voted against for getting out. They might regret it.
:09:34. > :09:40.Where does that leave whoever the future leader is? Do you agree? This
:09:41. > :09:45.whole contest will boil down to several binary choices, in and out
:09:46. > :09:52.of Europe, George Osborne and not George Osborne. Boris Johnson Atmos
:09:53. > :09:56.Boris Johnson. Woman and man. -- or not Boris Johnson. Depending on the
:09:57. > :10:00.circumstances we will find a leader. The young and old. 2015 intake are
:10:01. > :10:04.getting bored about George Osborne is nearly inevitable and if not him,
:10:05. > :10:07.Boris Johnson. They are thinking about running one of their own.
:10:08. > :10:12.There are names that we haven't even considered that may enter the fray.
:10:13. > :10:15.David Cameron might not go immediately but if he has to go he
:10:16. > :10:21.would be the walking wounded through the summer and into the autumn. Mr
:10:22. > :10:26.George Osborne probably the same. He kind of throws everything open. It
:10:27. > :10:31.stars. There is a lot of chat amongst ministers about what happens
:10:32. > :10:35.if we vote to leave -- it does. The Prime Minister says we trigger at
:10:36. > :10:41.ago 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, two years negotiation and I should do
:10:42. > :10:45.that -- at Article 50. One school of thought is that the prime and will
:10:46. > :10:50.bring in David Davies as the Deputy Prime Minister and lead the exit
:10:51. > :10:54.negotiations but I can't see that. I think that will be a leadership
:10:55. > :10:59.contest and the defining feature is who is the best person to lead those
:11:00. > :11:02.exit negotiations. And you would assume that a minister who has said
:11:03. > :11:06.we should leave would be best placed. Maybe it will be possible to
:11:07. > :11:10.have administered through said we should be in but maybe not wholly
:11:11. > :11:19.involved in the remaining campaign. A good Eurosceptic track record.
:11:20. > :11:22.Boris Johnson? Theresa May Possibly. Do you want Boris Johnson
:11:23. > :11:26.negotiating the future of the treaty over two years? I think Boris
:11:27. > :11:30.Johnson's position will be weaker than anyone things because of the
:11:31. > :11:38.dithering. It is so transparent and nakedly ambitious. Whether he is
:11:39. > :11:41.fought in or out. Anybody who is interested in politics feels
:11:42. > :11:44.passionately in or out and he can't pretend to be waiting for these
:11:45. > :11:48.minor negotiations on this fundamental issue that he has
:11:49. > :11:53.tackled all his life. Even if we wrote to remain, what is your view
:11:54. > :11:58.on what is sometimes called even if we vote to remain, the
:11:59. > :12:01.Conservatives, whose heart would not have been in remaining, will want
:12:02. > :12:07.someone to lead them after Mr Cameron, much later, who was Brexit?
:12:08. > :12:13.There is a strong case for that. Most of the polls suggest that 70%
:12:14. > :12:21.of the conservative grassroot is a Brexitier. There are polls which
:12:22. > :12:24.show, to speak up for Boris, that he is wildly more popular than any
:12:25. > :12:27.other conservative. There are conservative MPs who will look at
:12:28. > :12:32.those polls, the one in the Independent this morning he is the
:12:33. > :12:37.only main stream politician who has a positive rating. This is a 2-stage
:12:38. > :12:42.process, the MPs put you on the ballot paper, the grassroots people
:12:43. > :12:49.select you. Only two names go forward. You need to get past the
:12:50. > :12:54.MPs and then make your case to the wider. If Boris gets through, to
:12:55. > :12:57.being one of the final two, given his popularity with the Tory
:12:58. > :13:02.grassroots, could change, it could be skin deep, I don't know, but
:13:03. > :13:06.wouldn't he be an unstoppable? He doesn't have a huge backing at
:13:07. > :13:11.Westminster, a lot of MPs don't know him. Will he survive the rigours of
:13:12. > :13:15.a campaign? The interview on the Andrew Marr show, he faced awkward
:13:16. > :13:20.questions about one of his friends. You assume he will get through that
:13:21. > :13:24.process. We are talking about a contest after we have voted to stay
:13:25. > :13:29.in. Important lesson from 1975, Harold Wilson was a massively
:13:30. > :13:32.strengthened after that win. He moved Tony Benn at the crucial post
:13:33. > :13:34.of industry because he was very strong. The Prime Minister will
:13:35. > :13:40.pretty strong on that. Remember, if it's Sunday,
:13:41. > :13:46.it's the Sunday Politics.