:00:37. > :00:39.Good morning and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:40. > :00:42.So after protracted negotiations, David Cameron has finally named
:00:43. > :00:45.the day when voters will decide whether or not the United Kingdom
:00:46. > :00:58.The Prime Minister said the country would be "safer,
:00:59. > :01:01.stronger and better off" by staying in a reformed European Union -
:01:02. > :01:03.on the terms he agreed with EU leaders in Brussels late
:01:04. > :01:11.But about a quarter of the ministers who sit with Mr Cameron
:01:12. > :01:15.They've said they'll campaign for the UK to leave.
:01:16. > :01:18.We'll be talking to one of those wanting out, Leader of the House
:01:19. > :01:24.We'll be deliberating over which way this man will swing.
:01:25. > :01:31.The Mayor of London has apparently been "agonising" over his decision,
:01:32. > :01:34.although apparently all the smart money's on him supporting
:01:35. > :01:44.The party wants to stay in the EU, arguing it will be better for jobs,
:01:45. > :01:54.We'll be joined by the Shadow Foreign Secretary, Hillary Benn.
:01:55. > :01:56.And with me, three of Fleet Street's finest, who've survived
:01:57. > :02:03.Nick Watt, Melanie Phillips and Tom Newton Dunn.
:02:04. > :02:08.So David Cameron's done a deal and named the date.
:02:09. > :02:16.Not everyone's convinced, even one of the Prime Minister's
:02:17. > :02:19.best Cabinet buddies, Michael Gove, has decided to campaign
:02:20. > :02:24.Both camps, those who want to stay in the EU and those who want
:02:25. > :02:26.to leave have come out all guns blazing this morning.
:02:27. > :02:29.Let's hear what David Cameron had to say on the Marr show
:02:30. > :02:36.If we remain in a reformed EU, you know what you will get communal how
:02:37. > :02:40.to do business, create jobs, continue with our economic recovery.
:02:41. > :02:44.If we leave, seven years potentially of uncertainty and at the end of
:02:45. > :02:49.that process you still cannot be certain that our businesses will
:02:50. > :02:52.have full access to the market. So it could cost jobs, mean overseas
:02:53. > :02:57.companies not investing in Britain. It would be a step into the dark, a
:02:58. > :03:00.real risk of uncertainty. And that is the last thing we need in our
:03:01. > :03:02.country now. Let's talk now to the BBC's
:03:03. > :03:09.Political Editor, Laura Kuenssberg. The town and the language has
:03:10. > :03:16.changed, it was fighting talk from Mr Cameron yesterday, all the other
:03:17. > :03:21.comments were about a friendly cabinet meeting, convivial, honest,
:03:22. > :03:24.now the gloves are off. It was described by Theresa Villiers, one
:03:25. > :03:27.of the ministers for Out, as emotional. I think today is the
:03:28. > :03:31.first time we will see those emotions spilling into the public
:03:32. > :03:35.domain. As you say the Prime Minister has moved into campaigning
:03:36. > :03:39.language, that fighting talk, because the stakes are so high for
:03:40. > :03:44.him. He knows fine well that he's taking a huge gamble with own
:03:45. > :03:48.leadership. Is taking a huge gamble with the country's membership of the
:03:49. > :03:52.European Union, and she always said he might in the end argued to leave,
:03:53. > :03:57.very few people who believe that come also taking a gamble with his
:03:58. > :04:01.own party unity and that fighting talk we heard from him on that is
:04:02. > :04:05.still in part a last-minute plea to those waverers to get on his side
:04:06. > :04:10.rather than going to the other. This is something we will see play out,
:04:11. > :04:14.perhaps Tom at Italy, this kind of blue on blue action. Cameron isn't
:04:15. > :04:18.going to stand up and debate directly with those opposing him. He
:04:19. > :04:24.will do it through another way. Another thing he said to Andrew Marr
:04:25. > :04:28.today was quite strong, and a bit sharp, he suggested that those come
:04:29. > :04:33.including perhaps Boris Johnson, want to campaign for Out, were
:04:34. > :04:37.linking arms with George Galloway and Nigel Farage. For most people in
:04:38. > :04:42.the Conservative Party, hardly a compliment. What about the waverers,
:04:43. > :04:48.Boris Johnson for example, he wasn't able to be swayed with Michael Gove,
:04:49. > :04:54.George Osborne, a close friend, and that will have been a big blow, how
:04:55. > :04:59.big a blow will it be Boris Johnson campaigns for Out? One thing about
:05:00. > :05:03.this, some people wonder why the media seem obsessed with one
:05:04. > :05:08.politician. The reason is this. It is not often that politicians have
:05:09. > :05:12.single name recognition. It's not often as, if we do from time to time
:05:13. > :05:16.you go out campaigning in action with politicians, if it is Boris
:05:17. > :05:20.Johnson people come out of their houses and their businesses and
:05:21. > :05:25.shops, to see him and talk to him. They want to have pictures taken
:05:26. > :05:29.with him. He's a rare politician, the kind who can actually add a real
:05:30. > :05:35.fizz to a campaign and cut through to the public. Some people love him,
:05:36. > :05:39.some despise. But the point is, his addition to the Out campaign, if
:05:40. > :05:42.that's the way he goes which is what we expect, it would change the
:05:43. > :05:48.dynamics of the campaign. Particularly for the Out side, who
:05:49. > :05:51.have not landed on one obvious leader, it would be a significant
:05:52. > :05:56.boost for them, real shot in the arm. We are finally going to cure
:05:57. > :06:01.from Boris Johnson at 10pm this evening. He will lay out his
:06:02. > :06:06.arguments in his regular Telegraph column. The surprise would be if he
:06:07. > :06:11.decided to stay in. But of course you never know with him, he is
:06:12. > :06:17.unpredictable, and instinctively many who know him well say that at
:06:18. > :06:21.heart he is a YouGov file, not naturally a sceptic. Theatrical to
:06:22. > :06:26.the end! Briefly, how will it play out between Cabinet ministers on
:06:27. > :06:30.either side? Will they really be able to hold it together over the
:06:31. > :06:37.weeks of campaigning? One extraordinary thing about this is
:06:38. > :06:40.that they have an officially divided Cabinet, and the normal way of
:06:41. > :06:45.politics working is that they have to stick together come hell or high
:06:46. > :06:49.water. I think most people will do their best to be polite but
:06:50. > :06:54.friendships and loyalties will be tested. Clearly what it means is
:06:55. > :06:59.that there won't be much going on here apart from this. The focus will
:07:00. > :07:03.be Europe. The Challenger David Cameron, whatever the result, is
:07:04. > :07:06.whether he can keep the party together after the vote. Thank you.
:07:07. > :07:09.So after a near sleepless night on Friday, European leaders
:07:10. > :07:11.were meant to agree a deal over a civilised English breakfast.
:07:12. > :07:21.They didn't bother with afternoon tea.
:07:22. > :07:23.In the end they came up trumps over dinner.
:07:24. > :07:29.History starts with a lot of waiting around, as I discovered on Friday.
:07:30. > :07:35.Waiting for news from the EU summit, Westminster had ground to a halt.
:07:36. > :07:43.Over there, European leaders were on their second
:07:44. > :07:53.The French president was worried about the city of London getting
:07:54. > :07:55.a special deal, the Polish Prime Minister feared her citizens living
:07:56. > :07:58.in the UK would lose their benefits, and the Greek PM was
:07:59. > :08:06.David Cameron said he was battling for a better deal for Britain,
:08:07. > :08:08.which involved lots of talk, quite a few croissants,
:08:09. > :08:19.Suddenly, back at Westminster, a thing happened.
:08:20. > :08:22.One of the Leave campaigns, Grassroots Out, held a rally
:08:23. > :08:24.where it was rumoured they would reveal a surprise supporter.
:08:25. > :08:27.Who would be your dream Eurosceptic special guest?
:08:28. > :08:37.Sorry, it was actually George Galloway.
:08:38. > :08:44.When he turned up, a bunch of people left.
:08:45. > :09:02.They were people who were waiting for Nigel and had
:09:03. > :09:12.The only thing more exciting was happening back in Brussels,
:09:13. > :09:14.where finally, a deal designed to keep Britain in the EU
:09:15. > :09:20.The hacks were briefed by a clearly knackered Prime Minister.
:09:21. > :09:28.Within the last hour, I have negotiated a deal to give
:09:29. > :09:31.the United Kingdom special status inside the European Union.
:09:32. > :09:34.In the midst of it all, Angela Merkel was snapped
:09:35. > :09:44.That is what I call a working dinner.
:09:45. > :09:53.Now, it's Saturday morning in Downing Street.
:09:54. > :09:55.More waiting, this time for the first Cabinet meeting
:09:56. > :09:59.on a weekend since the Falklands, and David Cameron's chance
:10:00. > :10:11.This is the deal and here is what it amounts to.
:10:12. > :10:13.for the City of London, when it comes to in-work benefits,
:10:14. > :10:28.the UK will be able to apply the emergency brake,
:10:29. > :10:30.they would get in their home country.
:10:31. > :10:32.Time for ministers to give their verdict.
:10:33. > :10:37.Home Secretary, are you a remain-ian?
:10:38. > :10:42.Chancellor, I am guessing you are an inner, aren't you?
:10:43. > :10:50.Each gave their answer during a two hour meeting in Number 10.
:10:51. > :10:52.Then the PM appeared to press the button marked "Referendum".
:10:53. > :10:57.The choice is in your hands, but my recommendation is clear.
:10:58. > :11:00.I believe that Britain will be safer, stronger and better off
:11:01. > :11:06.And apparently it is now totally fine for members of the Cabinet
:11:07. > :11:14.What was it like when Michael Gove spoke, was he a bit sad?
:11:15. > :11:17.Of course, because he and the Prime Minister, he and the rest of us,
:11:18. > :11:27.One of the interesting and remarkable things about this
:11:28. > :11:29.government is we all know each other and we like each other,
:11:30. > :11:34.We have each other's mobile phones and we text and talk to each other.
:11:35. > :11:35.Please join me in welcoming Vote Leave's...
:11:36. > :11:39.But the six ministerial Tory outers headed straight to the HQ
:11:40. > :11:44.It is Iain Duncan Smith, I am a member of the Cabinet.
:11:45. > :11:54.I will be voting to leave the EU because I am profoundly
:11:55. > :11:57.optimistic about the UK, I believe we can flourish
:11:58. > :12:00.outside the European Union, so I think the better option
:12:01. > :12:04.is to take back control, and restore the ability
:12:05. > :12:06.to make our own laws and control our own
:12:07. > :12:10.Happy, happy, here we go, big smiles.
:12:11. > :12:14.Now the referendum campaign will be brought to a street near you,
:12:15. > :12:17.like the Britain Stronger In Europe team did in rainy Bath this weekend.
:12:18. > :12:20.There is one more thing we are waiting for, which side
:12:21. > :12:30.The Mayor of London will reveal his intentions tonight.
:12:31. > :12:37.Exciting. Let's pick up on that. Tom Newton Dunn, will he campaign to
:12:38. > :12:41.come out? It looks very much like it. People close to him this morning
:12:42. > :12:46.that I've spoken to, some pro-European MPs who hoped he would
:12:47. > :12:50.go their way, have now resigned themselves to Boris going from Vote
:12:51. > :12:53.Leave. Apparently it was down to this big dinner he had with Michael
:12:54. > :12:58.Gove on Tuesday night as revealed by the Mail on Sunday today. Horace was
:12:59. > :13:02.really given an argument he found hard to refuse. It would certainly
:13:03. > :13:06.appear that they have done a deal to do this together. Is it not more
:13:07. > :13:13.about leadership ambitions than about his true feelings to do with
:13:14. > :13:18.the EU? Everyone will presume that now is not simply because Boris
:13:19. > :13:22.Johnson is known for being inside Europe, he is an internationalist,
:13:23. > :13:26.born in New York, he's lived in Brussels, he has always been in
:13:27. > :13:30.favour of reform but not leaving. He was telling people openly one month
:13:31. > :13:34.ago that he would campaign to stay in. He has clearly worked out that
:13:35. > :13:38.the electorate that matters for him other grassroots Tories and the MPs
:13:39. > :13:42.who ask up to Cork and who will therefore hopefully propel him
:13:43. > :13:48.towards being Prime Minister. The thought he will have is, does he
:13:49. > :13:54.look sincere in doing this? He will have to have a very good argument
:13:55. > :13:59.tonight to make it look why he has done this apparent turnaround. Let's
:14:00. > :14:03.look at some of the substance, Melanie Phillips. Some will say that
:14:04. > :14:07.not many people in the public will look at the details, they will do it
:14:08. > :14:13.on gut instinct and emotion. Do you think that is true, or are there
:14:14. > :14:17.salient issues that could capture the imagination? I think the two are
:14:18. > :14:20.not necessarily in contradiction of each other, gut instinct and
:14:21. > :14:25.emotional part of it and fear will have a lot to do with this campaign.
:14:26. > :14:29.The fear, we must cling on for fear of something worse which is what the
:14:30. > :14:32.Prime Minister has played on and will continue to do so
:14:33. > :14:37.significantly. I was struck by the interview with the Prime Minister
:14:38. > :14:42.this morning in which he addressed the most important issue,
:14:43. > :14:47.sovereignty. And he redefined it. He was so keen to slip away from it
:14:48. > :14:51.because it is so dangerous him. The odd comment is that Britain will
:14:52. > :14:54.still have no control over its own stash might be argued is that
:14:55. > :14:59.Britain will still have no control over its own laws, they will be
:15:00. > :15:04.dictated in significant measure. Users they are looking at a
:15:05. > :15:09.mechanism... He is clinging to his apparent concession that he has run
:15:10. > :15:12.from them not to sign up to ever closer union. That is a meaningless
:15:13. > :15:16.thing. The thing is that we in Britain will continue to be bad but
:15:17. > :15:20.the judgments of the European Court of Justice. Although the Prime
:15:21. > :15:23.Minister is floated some kind of constitutional settlement, this is a
:15:24. > :15:26.nonsense because nothing can override that superiority. While we
:15:27. > :15:37.continue to be signed at the EU. Opponents are vexed that we appear
:15:38. > :15:40.not to have the ability to make her own laws, but we do not seem to be
:15:41. > :15:45.vexed whether we have the ability to decide whether to go to war not. You
:15:46. > :15:51.could have a situation in the next few months where Turkey and Syria,
:15:52. > :16:00.sorry, Russia and Turkey could find themselves at war. What happens
:16:01. > :16:03.then? We are bound to go to war on Turkey's behalf, the cause Turkey is
:16:04. > :16:06.a member of Nato. Opponents of the European Union do not seem to be too
:16:07. > :16:09.vexed about that. Do you think security will be the overriding
:16:10. > :16:13.thing that will convince people? It is simple who is clicked to win this
:16:14. > :16:19.campaign. The winners will be the safest option and the losers will be
:16:20. > :16:23.the riskiest option. That is why the Prime Minister is talking about risk
:16:24. > :16:28.and uncertainty. He's saying what can you, the outers, what is your
:16:29. > :16:32.vision for what Britain would be like outside the European Union. We
:16:33. > :16:34.will hear more from you later in the programme.
:16:35. > :16:37.Well, as we've been hearing, as soon as David Cameron announced
:16:38. > :16:39.the date of the referendum, members of the Cabinet were given
:16:40. > :16:42.free rein to campaign on either side of the argument.
:16:43. > :16:44.So who'll be campaigning to stay in and who'll be
:16:45. > :16:49.It is time for ministers to pick a side.
:16:50. > :16:51.No surprises that David Cameron, George Osborne and Philip Hammond
:16:52. > :17:00.And they will be pleased that potential outers Theresa May,
:17:01. > :17:04.Liz Truss and Sajid Javid have also all opted for the remain team.
:17:05. > :17:09.Chris Grayling, Priti Patel, John Whittingdale, Theresa Villiers
:17:10. > :17:12.and Iain Duncan Smith will be campaigning to leave.
:17:13. > :17:17.They will be cheered that Michael Gove, after much
:17:18. > :17:20.soul-searching, has also plumped for the leave campaign.
:17:21. > :17:27.However, there is one big name waiting on the sidelines.
:17:28. > :17:31.Pollsters claim his support could sway a lot of voters.
:17:32. > :17:33.Surely it cannot be long to wait now.
:17:34. > :17:35.And the Leader of the House of Commons, Chris Grayling,
:17:36. > :17:43.Welcome. Hello. Why do you not think the deal that the Prime Minister
:17:44. > :17:47.secured was enough? The Prime Minister has made some progress in
:17:48. > :17:52.his discussions in Brussels, and we give him credit for that, but does
:17:53. > :17:57.this represent a transformation that says to me, we should stay within
:17:58. > :18:01.the European Union? It does not. Our membership of the European Union
:18:02. > :18:06.holds us back. There are decisions that we should be taking for the
:18:07. > :18:11.benefit of her country that we cannot take when wearing the EU,
:18:12. > :18:15.like how many people, and live and work your, like forming free-trade
:18:16. > :18:18.deals around the world, and we are spending millions of pounds a week
:18:19. > :18:22.in subscriptions to the EU that should be spent on the National
:18:23. > :18:26.Health Service are bringing their beds. Some of that does not take
:18:27. > :18:31.into account the rebate that the UK gets. In your mind, the prime and it
:18:32. > :18:34.has failed in his ambition to secure fundamental reform? The Prime
:18:35. > :18:37.Minister has worked hard at this. He has failed, in your mind? What he
:18:38. > :18:56.has brought back is a deal that he and others believe it is
:18:57. > :18:59.sufficient for us to stay in the European Union. I do not think that,
:19:00. > :19:01.I think we should leave. That is the essence of the debate. What did they
:19:02. > :19:05.have secured to get your support? You're talking about risk. All the
:19:06. > :19:10.National statisticians are saying that our population is on the way to
:19:11. > :19:14.rising from 75 to 80 million people. I do not think we can cope with
:19:15. > :19:20.that. We do not have the houses, the school places, the hospitals. Your
:19:21. > :19:23.government has failed to do anything about net migration figures? Letting
:19:24. > :19:30.that happen is a huge risk. We cannot do anything about it because
:19:31. > :19:33.of the free movement you -- rules in the European Union. If we did not
:19:34. > :19:36.have free movement, what level of movement would be acceptable? We
:19:37. > :19:42.should bring it down to the tens of thousands. If the UK pulled out of
:19:43. > :19:47.the EU, you would get the level down to the tens of thousands? We would
:19:48. > :19:51.have the ability to set limits. We would look at the reality of the
:19:52. > :19:54.migration pressures we face. We could take decisions in the
:19:55. > :19:59.interests of Britain. At the moment we cannot do that. So there is not
:20:00. > :20:03.anything that David Cameron could have secured to get your support,
:20:04. > :20:05.because you always wanted to come out of the EU? I believed for a long
:20:06. > :20:24.time it was likely I would decide to come out of the EU. I have
:20:25. > :20:26.sat through European meetings for five years. We are not able to look
:20:27. > :20:28.after our national interest properly, our citizens are business
:20:29. > :20:30.interests. Too many decisions have been passed to Brussels. Michael
:20:31. > :20:32.Gove spoke yesterday about the decisions that cross the desks of
:20:33. > :20:37.ministers. Give me one example of something that has come across your
:20:38. > :20:40.desk that you could not in act because of the EU? When I was
:20:41. > :20:44.Minister for health and safety, there were changes being brought in
:20:45. > :20:49.that would cost British business money. Which ones to G1 to bring --
:20:50. > :20:55.want to not bring in. You always talk about regulations. Which
:20:56. > :21:00.specific bills were you not able to pass, which laws were foisted on you
:21:01. > :21:04.by the EU? I would not have imposed massive change to the North Sea oil
:21:05. > :21:08.industry, which is the best safety record in the world. It took three
:21:09. > :21:11.years of intense negotiations to reduce a package which would have
:21:12. > :21:16.been damaging to one that simply cost extra money for the industry.
:21:17. > :21:20.You want to strip away health and safety regulations? We have the best
:21:21. > :21:31.resume in the world. Across the board you would like to get rid of
:21:32. > :21:34.health and safety regulations that are brought in as a result of not
:21:35. > :21:37.just our government but the EU? I want us as a nation to decide what
:21:38. > :21:39.health and safety rules we get in the UK, not have been imposed. I
:21:40. > :21:42.want the right regulation. I want proper safety in the workplace but
:21:43. > :21:47.not massive burdens put on business. What was the atmosphere like in
:21:48. > :21:51.Cabinet yesterday. It was cordial. It was constructive and friendly.
:21:52. > :21:55.The Prime Minister accepted we had different views around the table. We
:21:56. > :21:59.are all committed to working in the next few months for the cause we
:22:00. > :22:07.believe in. We will do it in a constructive and friendly way. You
:22:08. > :22:11.will not be able to do that. We do not have to attack each other
:22:12. > :22:15.personally insult each other. It is already happening. You have said the
:22:16. > :22:18.Prime Minister is your mongering, it will be project fear.
:22:19. > :22:20.Prime Minister is your mongering, it friendly? I have not said the prime
:22:21. > :22:24.and is to is scaremongering. friendly? I have not said the prime
:22:25. > :22:33.have implied it will friendly? I have not said the prime
:22:34. > :22:38.airlines thing, we have cheap airfares all around the world. There
:22:39. > :22:43.are airports in continental Europe that would go bust if it was not for
:22:44. > :22:47.low-cost aviation from United Kingdom. You can guarantee that to
:22:48. > :22:52.the British people, can you? All these things will be there the day
:22:53. > :22:57.after Britain votes to leave the EU? Why would people in continental
:22:58. > :23:01.Europe cost themselves money? You cannot guarantee it? Aske yourself
:23:02. > :23:06.the question. Do you think the day after Britain leaves the
:23:07. > :23:12.the question. Do you think the day no longer sell BMWs to the British?
:23:13. > :23:14.the question. Do you think the day It will not happen. There will be a
:23:15. > :23:17.trade deal. Countries will want to trade with the UK. The issue is,
:23:18. > :23:21.will it be the same trade with the UK. The issue is,
:23:22. > :23:27.be full access for the UK to the same markets? For goods and
:23:28. > :23:31.services? Are you saying this will be a utopia where the same deal will
:23:32. > :23:36.be struck, we will not have to be part of freedom of movement rules,
:23:37. > :23:41.and we will not have to pay a penny towards the EU? We are the most
:23:42. > :23:45.important customer of the European Union. Can you guarantee that we
:23:46. > :23:49.will have full access to trade and services in the way that exist now,
:23:50. > :23:53.without freedom of movement and without paying into a EU fund? Aske
:23:54. > :23:58.the question the other way around, why would they take a risk with jobs
:23:59. > :24:07.in Germany, France and other European countries, by not agreeing
:24:08. > :24:10.a proper modern free-trade agreement in goods and services? They run a
:24:11. > :24:13.massive trade surplus with us. They sell more to us than we sell to
:24:14. > :24:17.them. They lose out financially of those arrangements do not continue.
:24:18. > :24:21.I am not seeing the arrangements would not continue, they would
:24:22. > :24:25.continue. I am talking about the Thames. Everyone says we do not know
:24:26. > :24:31.what out would look like. I am trying to see how long it would
:24:32. > :24:35.take, would it look like Canada, and would it be on the same terms we
:24:36. > :24:40.have no? Why would it not be on a free-trade basis? It costs them
:24:41. > :24:44.money if it is not. It is not ours who loses money, it is Germany and
:24:45. > :24:48.France and other European countries. That is why there would be a
:24:49. > :24:52.free-trade agreement that would allow all businesses to trade. How
:24:53. > :24:58.long would that take? A relatively short period of time in my view,
:24:59. > :25:02.because they lose financially. If it took Canada seven years, how long
:25:03. > :25:06.would it take the UK? There is a process of negotiation set out in
:25:07. > :25:12.the treaty that is estimated to take two years. I would not expect those
:25:13. > :25:15.countries to take a risk. They would lose out financially, not us. Even
:25:16. > :25:20.over the negotiations, President Hollington said that he will not
:25:21. > :25:24.give special treatment to Great Britain. Why would these countries
:25:25. > :25:27.who have been pulled through the ringer over these negotiations
:25:28. > :25:33.suddenly want to immediately, on your timescale, set up favourable
:25:34. > :25:36.terms of trade with the UK? Does anybody seriously think that
:25:37. > :25:39.President Hollande will say to the French farmers, who we know are
:25:40. > :25:43.fairly lively bunch when they want to be, you will no longer have
:25:44. > :25:47.free-trade agreements to sell your wine, cheese and other agricultural
:25:48. > :25:52.products to British supermarkets? Why would you take that political
:25:53. > :25:57.risk? We do not know the terms, that you admit. We know what you would
:25:58. > :26:01.like. We know you're saying you cannot believe there would be
:26:02. > :26:07.another option, but it is a risk. The Prime Minister is right? It is a
:26:08. > :26:09.risk for the French not to have an agreement with us. Otherwise their
:26:10. > :26:14.businesses lose out. Sajid Javid does not agree with you and use the
:26:15. > :26:19.Business Secretary. Is he wrong when he says, my head says it is too
:26:20. > :26:26.risky for business? I think the risk is on the other side. Inside you jab
:26:27. > :26:32.the drum? I have a different view. -- is Sajid Javid. Continental
:26:33. > :26:37.Europe are the ones who would lose if we do not have a free-trade
:26:38. > :26:40.agreement with them. He is the Business Secretary. What do you know
:26:41. > :26:46.that he does not? We have different views around the Cabinet table. We
:26:47. > :26:50.set them out yesterday. Some of us are in Yahn Sommer out. We will have
:26:51. > :26:55.that debate over the next few months. The Business Secretary is
:26:56. > :26:59.very good at his job. He is also clear in his article that he is
:27:00. > :27:05.deeply unhappy about the European Union. But he is being loyal to the
:27:06. > :27:09.Prime Minister. We are taking different views. We are both loyal
:27:10. > :27:13.to the Prime Minister. Not on this issue. The Prime Minister has been
:27:14. > :27:22.clear that government ministers are free to take different sides. It is
:27:23. > :27:25.a bold decision, the right decision. If you lose the argument, are you
:27:26. > :27:29.worried about your job? I think that is relevant. While? It will only
:27:30. > :27:32.happen on June 23rd? Wanted easily see a situation where David Cameron
:27:33. > :27:38.feels strongly about this. He will say to you and your colleagues or
:27:39. > :27:42.canning for out, that is it, it is over? David Cameron will do what he
:27:43. > :27:48.believes is right. This is a matter of principle for me. It is not about
:27:49. > :27:53.my career, my job. I am doing what I believe is the right thing for the
:27:54. > :27:56.country. What happens to me is neither here nor there. I believe it
:27:57. > :28:01.is the right thing for the country and I also believe it is the
:28:02. > :28:05.low-risk option. Is it right for a Conservative majority government,
:28:06. > :28:09.for the first time in many years, fighting and divided over this
:28:10. > :28:13.issue? People expect mature democracy, the expect is as
:28:14. > :28:20.politicians to debate and discuss. They do not expect us to agree all
:28:21. > :28:23.the time, we are not robots. We will have a constructive debate but we
:28:24. > :28:27.will stay friends, we will stay respectful of the Prime Minister,
:28:28. > :28:33.and work to make sure that we carry on gather -- governing the country
:28:34. > :28:39.well. If you win, does the Prime Minister have to go? Absolutely not.
:28:40. > :28:42.So you trust him to renegotiate bilateral trade agreements with the
:28:43. > :28:46.EU as the Prime Minister the campaign to stay in the EU? I trust
:28:47. > :28:50.him as the Prime Minister that was bold enough to give the country the
:28:51. > :28:58.choice. If the country decides to stay, he will lead us in government
:28:59. > :29:01.in 2020. He would really be your favourite person to lead these
:29:02. > :29:05.negotiations? You would still trust and? I would still trust them. In
:29:06. > :29:09.terms of your colleagues, do you think it would be possible for him
:29:10. > :29:16.to stay either way? Absolutely. The last thing we need at the end of all
:29:17. > :29:20.this, regardless of the result, is a political bloodbath. We have a good
:29:21. > :29:24.team and the team needs to carry on. How big boost would Boris Johnson be
:29:25. > :29:31.to your campaign? It would be great if he
:29:32. > :29:32.to your campaign? It would be great more than anybody else, but
:29:33. > :29:33.to your campaign? It would be great you will join. If you lose, will
:29:34. > :29:35.this issue be settled? you will join. If you lose, will
:29:36. > :29:39.will have decided, so we will not be you will join. If you lose, will
:29:40. > :29:42.able to return. We will not be urging for another referendum. Is
:29:43. > :29:58.that it for a generation? The people On this momentous weekend,
:29:59. > :30:00.what does the EU referendum How would we be affected
:30:01. > :30:04.if the UK left and what are And Carwyn Jones says he wants five
:30:05. > :30:08.more years to start the work he begun, but has he done enough
:30:09. > :30:11.to inspire his party at their last conference before
:30:12. > :30:14.the Assembly election? In just four months' time,
:30:15. > :30:19.we'll get the the chance to do
:30:20. > :30:21.something that hasn't been on offer for more than 40 years - to decide
:30:22. > :30:24.whether we want to leave or remain The campaign seems to have been
:30:25. > :30:28.going on for months, But how does being a member
:30:29. > :30:36.of the EU affect us here in Wales? The EU is often called the biggest
:30:37. > :30:39.trading block in the world - So what better place
:30:40. > :30:47.to discuss it than the biggest indoor market in Wales
:30:48. > :30:52.with the people who sell here? The vast majority of meat from Wales
:30:53. > :30:56.is exported to the EU and according to the Welsh government,
:30:57. > :30:58.the red meat market alone is worth at least
:30:59. > :31:04.?175 million a year. If the UK left the EU,
:31:05. > :31:06.that market would still be there but what isn't
:31:07. > :31:08.clear is what exactly This butchers is run by a married
:31:09. > :31:15.couple with very different views But he does have to make
:31:16. > :31:24.the changes and if he doesn't stand his ground,
:31:25. > :31:31.we are done for. The way I look at it,
:31:32. > :31:37.they want our stuff and we want their stuff so we go back
:31:38. > :31:40.to where we were before. Farmers get their share of around
:31:41. > :31:43.?200 million of European Union The average dairy farmer gets
:31:44. > :31:48.?22,000 of grants with the average sheep farmer getting
:31:49. > :31:53.around ?19,000 a year. One gripe we have
:31:54. > :31:58.heard today is about immigration because any EU citizen
:31:59. > :32:01.can come and live in Wales. When we look at
:32:02. > :32:03.immigration, it is worth bearing in mind that Wales
:32:04. > :32:05.is the part of the UK with the lowest proportion
:32:06. > :32:07.of people born abroad. But people do come here to live
:32:08. > :32:11.and the two countries at the top of the list are both
:32:12. > :32:13.from within the EU. Parts of Wales, like Swansea,
:32:14. > :32:16.also benefit from EU It was worth almost
:32:17. > :32:21.?2 billion between 2014 and 2020, helping
:32:22. > :32:27.to create thousands of jobs. Opponents say it is not
:32:28. > :32:30.European money, it is our money and if we didn't have to send
:32:31. > :32:33.funds to the EU every year, it could come from
:32:34. > :32:37.the UK Government. Supporters of the EU say there is no
:32:38. > :32:40.guarantee that the UK Government would keep giving so
:32:41. > :32:51.much money to Wales. If they leave, I suppose it
:32:52. > :32:54.would just tell every other sort of major player like
:32:55. > :32:56.Germany and stuff like that to just cause them
:32:57. > :33:04.to leave and if they all leave, it might bring instability
:33:05. > :33:06.to the economic front. The EU regulates how much fishing
:33:07. > :33:09.there is off the coast of Wales, Here they say it could
:33:10. > :33:13.damage the industry. Everybody put sanctions on them
:33:14. > :33:15.apart from us and our waters We should be allowed
:33:16. > :33:18.to do that ourselves. Opponents say if they left the EU,
:33:19. > :33:21.there would be much more freedom to trade with emerging
:33:22. > :33:23.export markets like India and China, rather
:33:24. > :33:27.than having to go through Brussels. So it is clear the
:33:28. > :33:29.debate is heating up but until there is agreement
:33:30. > :33:32.in Brussels and a date for the vote, I am joined by people from either
:33:33. > :34:00.side of the argument. Joining me now are two women
:34:01. > :34:03.from either side of the argument - the chief executive of Leave EU,
:34:04. > :34:06.Liz Bilney, and the Lib Dem AM Eluned Parrott, who's
:34:07. > :34:12.with Britain Stronger in Europe. We would be able to negotiate our
:34:13. > :34:16.own trade agreements and re-establish our links with the
:34:17. > :34:20.Commonwealth. We could put in place appropriate policies such as
:34:21. > :34:24.migration. We could look to an Australian style system which we all
:34:25. > :34:30.agree is fair. We could welcome people from all over the world.
:34:31. > :34:33.Why would the UK be better to remain in the EU?
:34:34. > :34:36.It is nonsense to suggest it prevents us from trading with the
:34:37. > :34:42.rest of the world. 50 or 60% of our trade is with the rest of the world.
:34:43. > :34:45.The most compelling reason for me is the European Union has given us 60
:34:46. > :34:51.years of peace in a continent that has known 2000 years of
:34:52. > :34:56.uninterrupted war. I am not going to gamble with the futures of my
:34:57. > :35:01.children. I am going to vote with my heart to stay in and keep talking to
:35:02. > :35:06.our neighbours and friends. The point about peace. If the UK
:35:07. > :35:11.decided to leave the EU, it would still be there. That element of
:35:12. > :35:13.peaceful cooperation on mainland continental Europe would still be
:35:14. > :35:17.there? It would be there but we wouldn't be
:35:18. > :35:21.a part of it and I think we would be weaker if we weren't a part of that
:35:22. > :35:25.union. We helped create a system whereby we talk to our neighbours to
:35:26. > :35:34.help prevent what happened in the first and second world Wars, where
:35:35. > :35:38.this multilateral military only agreement centres into the First
:35:39. > :35:41.World War because we toppled into those situations.
:35:42. > :35:44.Would you like to come in there? I would suggest we are a member of the
:35:45. > :35:57.wrong club because we are a member of Nato and the UN Security Council.
:35:58. > :36:03.We also have seats in the 20. -- G20. We don't need to be part of the
:36:04. > :36:11.EU if security is our main concern. David Cameron was speaking to the
:36:12. > :36:14.BBC this morning, saying that the UK likes to be part of these
:36:15. > :36:20.organisations. Why not be part of this huge single market, the biggest
:36:21. > :36:25.in the world? Why not be in there, able to influence things.
:36:26. > :36:31.The EU cost us ?350 million a week and doesn't give us any benefits in
:36:32. > :36:34.return. When you look at trade, we are part of the World Trade
:36:35. > :36:38.Organisation so we have the right number shipped in different clubs.
:36:39. > :36:47.Why are we paying all this money? -- membership in different clubs.
:36:48. > :36:51.If the UK leaves, what would the nature of the trading relationship
:36:52. > :36:57.between the UK and the rest of the EU be?
:36:58. > :37:01.We buy more from the EU than we sell. When we look at the deficit
:37:02. > :37:07.figures, ?80 billion of deficit sat there and 50 million -- 50 billion
:37:08. > :37:13.is with the EU. In the event of the UK leaving...
:37:14. > :37:16.Trade won't change. We were going into the supermarket and buy...
:37:17. > :37:24.You can guarantee that? People will still want to purchase French wine
:37:25. > :37:28.and hoovers... Because of that, there will be no impact on jobs.
:37:29. > :37:35.You don't know that. We will want to buy the same products. We want to
:37:36. > :37:39.sell the same services. You would come to an agreement and when you
:37:40. > :37:44.have a seat on the World Trade Organisation, you will come to that.
:37:45. > :37:49.It doesn't sound cast-iron. Canada is a country trying to have its own
:37:50. > :37:51.free-trade agreement with the EU at the moment and has taken seven
:37:52. > :37:58.years. And I said, a country of fewer
:37:59. > :38:02.people, negotiated a trade agreement with China. Are you suggesting we
:38:03. > :38:06.are not capable? That was the argument from Nigel
:38:07. > :38:10.Farage this morning. There is a difference. Iceland is a small
:38:11. > :38:13.country and the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world,
:38:14. > :38:20.trading with all of these countries in the EU. China is one country. How
:38:21. > :38:25.can you guarantee we have a similar trade nature with the EU?
:38:26. > :38:29.Because we buy more from the EU than we sell so when we come to the table
:38:30. > :38:31.and they want to carry on that trading relationship, the cards are
:38:32. > :38:35.in our hands. It gives us the freedom to have a
:38:36. > :38:40.better deal for us? How can you argue with that? Is a
:38:41. > :38:45.fairy tale. How is it logical to say it is logical to be part of some
:38:46. > :38:48.clubs but not other clubs? There is no logical basis for that. When you
:38:49. > :38:52.think about the trade relationship with Europe, yes we will trade with
:38:53. > :38:57.them but there may well be terrorists in place and costs. We
:38:58. > :39:00.will not trade at the same price with the same ease. If there is no
:39:01. > :39:05.difference, why do you want to leave? What is the difference? There
:39:06. > :39:10.will be change and risk and difference and independent estimates
:39:11. > :39:14.reckon that UK consumers will pay ?3000 a year more for services and
:39:15. > :39:19.goods that we buy from the EU, such as flights, roaming charges on
:39:20. > :39:24.mobile tariffs and all those kind of things that have been lowered as a
:39:25. > :39:27.result of our membership of the EU. If you are looking for a new
:39:28. > :39:32.relationship, let's look at the relationships that exist for
:39:33. > :39:36.countries in Europe but not the EU like Norway or Switzerland. Are you
:39:37. > :39:40.basing your argument on a model they follow?
:39:41. > :39:45.I think we are more complex than that. You can take elements of what
:39:46. > :39:47.different countries have put I think it is a very simplistic way of
:39:48. > :39:51.looking at the world to say, let's take the Norway option. You can take
:39:52. > :39:57.elements of different countries and come up with a structure that
:39:58. > :40:00.reflects our make-up that makes us different and that is why we have to
:40:01. > :40:03.be out. Can you not described to me the
:40:04. > :40:08.model of the new relationship you want to broker? You want to broker a
:40:09. > :40:12.relationship with Europe but you can't tell me what that looks like?
:40:13. > :40:17.You want the voters of this country to throw away what they have for an
:40:18. > :40:21.unknown and uncertain future? It is risky for our children. I want my
:40:22. > :40:26.children to grow up in a world where they have jobs to go to...
:40:27. > :40:30.I would suggest that staying in the EU is the unknown. We have seen it
:40:31. > :40:36.evolved from what it was in 1975 to what it is today. We joined the
:40:37. > :40:41.Common market and now it is the EU. It will progress and we are seeing
:40:42. > :40:46.the decline of the euro so in a couple of years it could even
:40:47. > :40:51.collapse itself. I would suggest it is better to build outside the EU,
:40:52. > :40:56.make friends with the Commonwealth, the guys we left behind, and
:40:57. > :41:00.negotiate our own trade agreements. We will prosper. We find the
:41:01. > :41:07.prospect of leaving exciting. Eluned Parrott, you said the average
:41:08. > :41:11.consumer would be ?3000 worse off out of the EU, why is that?
:41:12. > :41:16.There are savings to be had by the fact there are no import charges and
:41:17. > :41:18.tariffs and for example... But you don't know what they would
:41:19. > :41:23.be. We have calculated it the other way
:41:24. > :41:29.round we think it would be ?3000 better off by coming out.
:41:30. > :41:34.We will come back to you. The kind of things that are cheaper
:41:35. > :41:38.as a result of the EU for consumers are food because we have a system
:41:39. > :41:44.that supports farming. It gives this food security. It is likely to be
:41:45. > :41:49.more expensive as a result. There are flights within Europe because of
:41:50. > :41:52.agreements within the airline industry and the European Union.
:41:53. > :41:57.Roaming charges for mobile phones and making sure there is access to
:41:58. > :42:05.mobile networks overseas. There are things with the average cost if we
:42:06. > :42:09.leave the UK is around ?3000 a year, it is estimated.
:42:10. > :42:14.You say ?3000 a year better off. Why is that? Let's say that if we
:42:15. > :42:18.are not in the EU, we will be saving ?55 million per day.
:42:19. > :42:24.That doesn't take into the account the fact there is a UK rebate that
:42:25. > :42:28.comes in so it is closer to ?45 million a day.
:42:29. > :42:33.It is still a lot of money. It could still help towards schools,
:42:34. > :42:36.hospitals and it could make this country great. It is a huge cost
:42:37. > :42:44.saving for our economy. But not for farmers in Wales. 15,000
:42:45. > :42:48.farmers in Wales get around ?20,000 a year in EU subsidies. They will
:42:49. > :42:51.lose that, won't be as Mac only if the government chooses not to give
:42:52. > :42:55.it back. It is uncertain. It is a different
:42:56. > :42:58.issue, saying you don't trust the fact the government would give us
:42:59. > :43:01.the rebate back. It is not trust, it is a lack of
:43:02. > :43:08.certainty. You are gambling it is better to
:43:09. > :43:13.have a bird in the hand. We know we can sort ourselves out and be better
:43:14. > :43:18.by being out. There will be cost savings by coming out. Jobs will not
:43:19. > :43:22.be affected. There are a lot of mist on the inside campaign but we are
:43:23. > :43:25.here to present the facts and we know that once people see the
:43:26. > :43:29.information, they will vote to come out of the EU.
:43:30. > :43:32.This is the first of many debates to come. Thank you both for coming in.
:43:33. > :43:35.In the middle of the huge story of an EU referendum,
:43:36. > :43:38.spare a thought for Welsh Labour, trying to set out their stall
:43:39. > :43:41.The Party has led the government in Wales since we've
:43:42. > :43:46.It's fair to say it's been a mixed bag as far as services go -
:43:47. > :43:48.ministers admit to having taken their eye off the ball
:43:49. > :43:52.Well, our political editor Nick Servini has been at the party's
:43:53. > :43:54.annual conference in Llandudno and spoke to the leader,
:43:55. > :44:05.He began by asking him what he made of the European deal.
:44:06. > :44:08.I can live with what has been proposed. I think the important
:44:09. > :44:14.thing is the principle that Wales should be part of the UK and the EU,
:44:15. > :44:20.to get access to the big single market that sustains so many jobs in
:44:21. > :44:27.Wales. And yet, and also Jeremy Corbyn again, today, a kind of
:44:28. > :44:31.mealy-mouthed acceptance. It could be tight. A bit of old-fashioned,
:44:32. > :44:38.tribal party politics is perhaps not is what is required if you want the
:44:39. > :44:44.UK to remain. The problem is the referendum in May and then the vote
:44:45. > :44:48.in June makes it hard to differentiate. The European campaign
:44:49. > :44:52.is different to the election campaign. Those that want Wales to
:44:53. > :44:55.remain part of the EU, we have an election on the 5th of May and the
:44:56. > :45:04.parties will be on their knees in terms of energy levels and they will
:45:05. > :45:08.have to campaign. There is a logistical difficulty. Senior Labour
:45:09. > :45:12.figures spoke to me, saying you should have a pact with the other
:45:13. > :45:17.parties whereby you don't talk about the EU because it gets in the way of
:45:18. > :45:22.the assembly campaign. Is this unrealistic? I won't be talking
:45:23. > :45:27.about the EU as a central part. We will be talking about health,
:45:28. > :45:31.education, the economy. We shouldn't conflate the EU referendum with the
:45:32. > :45:35.assembly election campaign. You know, let's be realistic. They are
:45:36. > :45:41.going to run into each other at different stages. Let's talk about
:45:42. > :45:45.your speech and the assembly campaign. Interesting, I thought, it
:45:46. > :45:52.was very personal at times. You had your wife as the warm up act. She
:45:53. > :45:58.volunteered, bless her! There was definitely a personal element. I
:45:59. > :46:04.wonder, particularly in terms of the content, you talked about it being a
:46:05. > :46:08.fight between who you want as a First Minister - yourself or Andrew
:46:09. > :46:12.RT Davies. I get the sense this is going to be a presidential style
:46:13. > :46:16.campaign. Is that what you want? First of all, we stand on what we
:46:17. > :46:20.have done and what we are going to do. We kept the promises we made in
:46:21. > :46:26.2011 and we are telling the people of Wales we will make our promises
:46:27. > :46:30.in 2016. In the age we live in, of course people look at party leaders
:46:31. > :46:34.and they will judge them according to whether they think they are up to
:46:35. > :46:38.the job that they are aspiring to get. Yes, there is an element of
:46:39. > :46:44.people looking at party leaders. They want to see them as people who
:46:45. > :46:50.look the part as First Minister. It is inevitable. You also have the
:46:51. > :46:53.policies. In terms of the policies, what are you going to do about
:46:54. > :47:01.hospital waiting list if you are in power? See them come down even more.
:47:02. > :47:05.We see bed blocking come down and cancer figures doing better than
:47:06. > :47:10.England. There are areas where we want to see improvement. Most
:47:11. > :47:16.hospital waiting lists are longer in Wales than England. Some are and
:47:17. > :47:19.some aren't. The OECD gave us a report last Friday that showed us
:47:20. > :47:25.there was no difference between the English and Welsh NHS. It didn't
:47:26. > :47:30.look at waiting times. It looked at what was being delivered. We have
:47:31. > :47:35.heard the Tories say the Welsh NHS is worse than the English NHS. It
:47:36. > :47:44.isn't. We have no junior doctors strike. We don't want that chaos. It
:47:45. > :47:51.is worse on waiting times. There is work to do. Not an cancer. Not
:47:52. > :47:55.cancer but most of them. You are right to say we want improvements to
:47:56. > :47:59.continue. We have seen ambulance waiting times improved and we want
:48:00. > :48:05.the same on waiting times. What are you going to do? It hasn't worked so
:48:06. > :48:11.far. It is making sure we put resources into the NHS. The NHS is
:48:12. > :48:13.not far off half of our budget. Demand goes up and the challenge -as
:48:14. > :48:17.it will be in the rest Demand goes up and the challenge -as
:48:18. > :48:24.meet the demand. You covered Demand goes up and the challenge -as
:48:25. > :48:29.of the M4 relief road. It is the only biggest construction project
:48:30. > :48:35.since the start of devolution. Are you going cool on it? There has to
:48:36. > :48:42.be a relief road. Why didn't you mention it? There are several things
:48:43. > :48:50.we didn't mention. We have a manifesto. It will be in the
:48:51. > :48:51.manifesto? Yes. You talked about taking flak for difficult decisions.
:48:52. > :48:56.I want to take you back to a taking flak for difficult decisions.
:48:57. > :49:02.he made to the NHS Confederation a couple of weeks ago. You said, it is
:49:03. > :49:03.impossible to spend more on the NHS and an council 's and anyone who
:49:04. > :49:10.says otherwise risks taking the and an council 's and anyone who
:49:11. > :49:18.Welsh public for fools. So are you prepared to take the flak here, that
:49:19. > :49:22.the new administration and you, the priority will be the NHS and
:49:23. > :49:27.will be less money for cancelled? That was aimed at other parties,
:49:28. > :49:33.particularly the Tories. I am told to put
:49:34. > :49:35.particularly the Tories. I am told defences. You can't do it all. It
:49:36. > :49:39.was aimed at defences. You can't do it all. It
:49:40. > :49:42.there is a magic money tree somewhere and difficult decisions
:49:43. > :49:51.don't have to be taken. They want to cut education funding by 12%, local
:49:52. > :49:58.government by 12%. That is an 38% increase on tax. In terms of your
:49:59. > :50:02.spending plans, you have said you cannot increase NHS and councils.
:50:03. > :50:07.You made it clear in the speech you are going to keep increasing
:50:08. > :50:12.spending on the NHS so it is a difficult message for cancelled and
:50:13. > :50:16.council spending. You seem to think this is a message I was giving on
:50:17. > :50:21.the half of our party. It was aimed at other parties because they claim
:50:22. > :50:24.you can do both. You are right to say that as we find more resources
:50:25. > :50:30.for the NHS, you have to find them from elsewhere and that is where the
:50:31. > :50:36.difficult decisions to come in. It sounded to me it is one or the
:50:37. > :50:40.other. We are not looking to raise council budgets, which seems to be
:50:41. > :50:45.the suggestion. When we look at where to find money, we look at
:50:46. > :50:48.schemes that are coming to an end and rationalising things. Sometimes
:50:49. > :50:53.we have to take difficult decisions where funding is kept in certain
:50:54. > :50:59.areas because there is a limited pot of money. What we have tried to do
:51:00. > :51:01.is prioritise spending on what the people of Wales will want.
:51:02. > :51:07.You have talked about a ten year plan and we are halfway through it.
:51:08. > :51:11.What is left to do? What have you failed to achieve in the first five
:51:12. > :51:15.years that needs to be done in the second? It isn't failing, you get
:51:16. > :51:22.five years delivering for people and you get a sense of what you can do
:51:23. > :51:27.next. We have come up with six pledges -help older people, people
:51:28. > :51:31.who need childcare, those who want training, people in the NHS and
:51:32. > :51:35.education. These are the areas that are important for the people of
:51:36. > :51:41.Wales. They are costly. We can deliver on them. We think they are
:51:42. > :51:46.understandable and will make a difference to people's lives.
:51:47. > :51:50.A ten year plan. Are you going to be First Minister after ten years?
:51:51. > :51:54.I want to be First Minister in May. I think it is wrong for politicians
:51:55. > :51:58.to say, I want to be there for a certain amount of time. I want the
:51:59. > :52:05.people of Wales to put me back in charge as First Minister in May.
:52:06. > :52:08.Thank you. I am pleased to say Nick has come down from Llandudno to join
:52:09. > :52:14.us now. What was the mood of the conference?
:52:15. > :52:17.It was a very busy conference. It would have been intense before an
:52:18. > :52:23.assembly election and throw into the mix Jeremy Corbyn, throw into the
:52:24. > :52:28.mix the fact that as things were unfolding in Llandudno, we had
:52:29. > :52:33.events in Westminster playing out and the story was unfolding about
:52:34. > :52:37.the confirmation of the date for the EU referendum. In terms of the set
:52:38. > :52:41.piece speech from Carwyn Jones, I think there was the view in the
:52:42. > :52:46.room, not just from party hacks, who would you -- who you would expect to
:52:47. > :52:51.say this but from independent observers-it was one of his
:52:52. > :52:55.strongest set pieces as he has given as a leader. It opened up the
:52:56. > :53:02.personal element. His wife was the warm up act talking about family
:53:03. > :53:05.holidays and the times they have met. He came in and talked about the
:53:06. > :53:11.aspirations that his mother and father had for him. That was
:53:12. > :53:18.introducing a new element. On the fundamental message of the decade of
:53:19. > :53:22.delivery and being halfway in, asking for more time, there are pros
:53:23. > :53:26.and cons. The clear strength for them is it brings Labour into the
:53:27. > :53:32.here and now. Welsh Labour don't want to be defending failed policies
:53:33. > :53:37.from 2002 in 2016 so it was not a triumphalist, look at our record
:53:38. > :53:41.after 17 years of Welsh Labour since evolution came into being. It comes
:53:42. > :53:47.into the here and now. The inevitable risk is it is an appeal
:53:48. > :53:51.for more time and inevitably, the response from a lot of people will
:53:52. > :53:57.be, you've had nearly 20 years! In the middle of the conference, bless
:53:58. > :54:00.them, comes this huge news we are going to have a referendum. What is
:54:01. > :54:08.your take on how the campaign will go in Wales. You know, I think a lot
:54:09. > :54:11.of people are not ready for it yet. I was in Merthyr last week and I
:54:12. > :54:15.spoke to a lot of people in relation to this and it is striking how many
:54:16. > :54:18.people have not made up their mind. Maybe I should be more specific.
:54:19. > :54:22.They haven't had the time to read Maybe I should be more specific.
:54:23. > :54:27.on it and be in a Maybe I should be more specific.
:54:28. > :54:28.make an informed choice. I have got an unscientific theory on this and
:54:29. > :54:32.it is the date in an unscientific theory on this and
:54:33. > :54:37.once you have a date in the calendar you then become a
:54:38. > :54:43.on the issues that are involved. I think the war in terms of broadcast
:54:44. > :54:48.and newspaper obsession with this over the months
:54:49. > :54:52.and newspaper obsession with this I don't know if you were born
:54:53. > :54:56.and newspaper obsession with this 1975, I was three. It
:54:57. > :54:58.and newspaper obsession with this generation opportunity and will be a
:54:59. > :55:00.huge story. I think people don't know what the
:55:01. > :55:05.huge story. I think people don't be like. What is it going to feel
:55:06. > :55:07.huge story. I think people don't like? I was in Swansea on Friday,
:55:08. > :55:10.looking at the EU. Overall like? I was in Swansea on Friday,
:55:11. > :55:13.more people wanted to leave than remain. You think of Swansea as a
:55:14. > :55:16.place remain. You think of Swansea as a
:55:17. > :55:23.million pounds of EU funding. remain. You think of Swansea as a
:55:24. > :55:28.it surprise you, looking at the poll last week, more people in Wales
:55:29. > :55:34.wanted to opt to leave than remain? Wales probably being the greatest
:55:35. > :55:37.beneficiary of EU money than the best of the UK? There has
:55:38. > :55:44.historically been a sense that Wales is more pro-Europe. There has been
:55:45. > :55:49.some research to back that up. Then we had the European elections. We
:55:50. > :55:56.have seen the rise in Ukip in Wales, really aiming for the assembly
:55:57. > :56:00.elections. The EU aid issue will give a Welsh dynamic to this picture
:56:01. > :56:07.because its presence is everywhere in so many communities and will have
:56:08. > :56:11.to be addressed by both sides. There will be an overlap between the
:56:12. > :56:17.referendum and the assembly election campaign. How will they deal with
:56:18. > :56:21.that? Hugely. At the Labour conference in Llandudno, people were
:56:22. > :56:26.deeply pessimistic. Stern warnings for people like me and other
:56:27. > :56:31.journalists -you have a duty to separate the two. One said the
:56:32. > :56:36.parties should form a packed and not talk about EU issues for fear of it
:56:37. > :56:40.being a distraction in the assembly campaign. Inevitably, that is going
:56:41. > :56:44.to be unrealistic. When assembly candidates knock on doors, people
:56:45. > :56:47.are going to want to know what they think about the EU and not the
:56:48. > :56:51.assembly. That is all from us. Goodbye.