:00:36. > :00:38.Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:39. > :00:42.begins a new drive urging Scots to support what she calls
:00:43. > :00:46."the beautiful dream" of independence.
:00:47. > :00:51.Tough talk from George Osborne ahead of his Budget on Wednesday.
:00:52. > :00:53.The Chancellor wants us to live within our means.
:00:54. > :00:56.Fighting talk too, from the man in his shadow.
:00:57. > :00:59.John McDonnell wants to revive Labour's economic credibility.
:01:00. > :01:05.And does Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party have a problem
:01:06. > :01:09.Labour students at Oxford are already being investigated
:01:10. > :01:13.Later in the programme: university will also face scrutiny.
:01:14. > :01:16.Next week Assembly Members and the Senedd shut up shop
:01:17. > :01:31.We ask, has the government delivered on its promises?
:01:32. > :01:34.And with me three Fleet Street journos, living the dream.
:01:35. > :01:40.Nick Watt, Julia Harley-Brewer and Tim Shipman.
:01:41. > :01:45.For the rest of us, it is a bit of a nightmare!
:01:46. > :01:47.So, four months ago, George Osborne sounded upbeat
:01:48. > :01:52.Writing in the Sun on Sunday, ahead of Wednesday's Budget,
:01:53. > :01:54.the Chancellor says the world is facing its most uncertain period
:01:55. > :01:58.He says Britain has to act now, rather than pay later,
:01:59. > :02:03.Let's listen to the Chancellor on the Marr Show a little earlier.
:02:04. > :02:06.I think the world is a much more difficult and dangerous place.
:02:07. > :02:09.My message in this Budget is that the world is a more
:02:10. > :02:12.uncertain place than at any time since the financial crisis.
:02:13. > :02:16.We need to act now so we don't pay later.
:02:17. > :02:21.That is why we need to find additional savings,
:02:22. > :02:24.equivalent to 50p in every ?100 the Government spends by the end
:02:25. > :02:27.We have got to live within our means to stay secure.
:02:28. > :02:33.That is the way we make Britain fit for the future.
:02:34. > :02:39.That was the Chancellor earlier this morning. What did we learn? He is
:02:40. > :02:44.preparing the ground for a very difficult budget. Why is he talking
:02:45. > :02:49.about the difficult global economic circumstances? We have a significant
:02:50. > :02:55.slowdown in China but it helps him in the EU referendum campaign. Why
:02:56. > :02:58.risk leaving the EU when it is difficult economic circumstances? It
:02:59. > :03:03.helps him with a budget. You need to expend why he was talking in the
:03:04. > :03:07.July budget, the Autumn Statement, targeting a 10 billion budget
:03:08. > :03:13.surplus by 2020 and now he will be talking back calories and ?18
:03:14. > :03:21.billion hole in the size of the economy. Will he be able to meet
:03:22. > :03:26.that surplus? He needs an alibi for that. All the global headwinds,
:03:27. > :03:29.problems in the emerging markets, the slowdown in China, the Eurozone
:03:30. > :03:34.struggling to be overwhelmed. We knew that back in July. Nothing has
:03:35. > :03:40.changed. The thing about George Osborne is he is a politician. It is
:03:41. > :03:43.always about politics. It is not ideal, coming into local elections,
:03:44. > :03:49.London mayoral elections, to be giving a load of cuts to public
:03:50. > :03:53.services and possibly tax rises. The reality is he is always looking at
:03:54. > :03:59.the long game and he does always play a brilliant politicians long
:04:00. > :04:05.game. He is looking to 2020 and does not care. He also plays a bad shot
:04:06. > :04:11.game. Will it be a difficult budget or will it be a steady issues
:04:12. > :04:15.budget? What is striking about back in this morning, at least half of it
:04:16. > :04:21.was about the European Union and not the budget. The rest of it was about
:04:22. > :04:24.the Tory leadership and him taking potshots at Boris Johnson. The
:04:25. > :04:28.subtext of this budget is it has been a difficult and dangerous time
:04:29. > :04:34.for George Osborne and his teacher. He sat there and said, I am not
:04:35. > :04:40.going to sit in this chair and mumble away. Who could he be talking
:04:41. > :04:44.about there? We were told week ago that the subtext of the budget would
:04:45. > :04:48.be the dangers of Brexit and the Tory leadership. It is not the
:04:49. > :04:57.subtext, it is the text. There is hardly anything in it in terms of
:04:58. > :05:00.big stuff. Steady as she goes. Can we just have another shout out for
:05:01. > :05:07.the brilliant headline, genius political strategist clears up mess
:05:08. > :05:10.made by genius political strategist. He may be nursing a little rabbit to
:05:11. > :05:15.surprise as always! Now, if a certain referendum had
:05:16. > :05:18.gone a bit differently, Scotland, would be an independent
:05:19. > :05:20.country in just over ten days' time. Those wanting to leave the UK didn't
:05:21. > :05:25.win that argument in 2014 but that hasn't dented the fortunes
:05:26. > :05:28.of the SNP, who are riding high It's the party's Spring Conference
:05:29. > :05:31.in Glasgow this weekend, and we're joined now
:05:32. > :05:41.from there by the First Minister Good morning. A pleasure to be with
:05:42. > :05:48.you, Andrew. Had the referendum gone your way, we would be ten days from
:05:49. > :05:53.independents. You will be taking a massive and unsustainable ?15
:05:54. > :05:56.billion budget deficit, 10% of Scottish GDP. What would you be
:05:57. > :06:04.doing to get that down? We would deal with it in the same way the UK
:06:05. > :06:13.dealt with its deficit in 2009/ when they had 2.2% of the GDP. -- 2009/
:06:14. > :06:17.2010. They will be building on the underlying fundamental strengths of
:06:18. > :06:21.the Scottish economy. Our this goal position has been broadly similar to
:06:22. > :06:25.the rest of the UK and, in some years, better than the rest of the
:06:26. > :06:30.UK. Onshore revenues are growing at a faster rate than the fall in
:06:31. > :06:33.offshore revenues. We have higher employment and faster productivity
:06:34. > :06:36.growth. The economy is fundamentally strong and that would have been a
:06:37. > :06:43.very good basis on which to become an independent country. Did you not
:06:44. > :06:47.oppose most efforts of the British government to get the deficit down?
:06:48. > :06:51.I opposed many measures that George Osborne has taken. I do not say we
:06:52. > :06:55.should not try to get the deficit down. I have opposed and continue to
:06:56. > :06:59.oppose the speed at which it is happening in the way in which it is
:07:00. > :07:03.happening but no one would deny that countries want to get their fiscal
:07:04. > :07:07.positions into a more stable condition and the UK is in right
:07:08. > :07:14.now. The point I'm making is the Scottish economy is fundamentally
:07:15. > :07:17.strong economy. Much of what I have said illustrates that point. Let's
:07:18. > :07:21.look at some of the things you have said. You have said most countries
:07:22. > :07:25.have deficits. Can you name another at Fat economy 80s after the
:07:26. > :07:35.financial crash that has a budget deficit of 10% of GDP. You do not
:07:36. > :07:42.look at just one year full if I go back to that -- two 2008, 2009, it
:07:43. > :07:45.was double that of Scotland. Our this goal position has been stronger
:07:46. > :07:51.but is not right now because of the particular issues. Is it not the
:07:52. > :07:57.case that Scotland's deficit now is the highest in the European Union?
:07:58. > :08:02.That is true, isn't it? In the year we had figures published in this
:08:03. > :08:09.past week, we have a very difficult and challenging set of figures. It
:08:10. > :08:13.is the highest. No country, whether the UK, Scotland or another EU
:08:14. > :08:17.country, makes judgments about that this good strength of that country
:08:18. > :08:21.on the strength of one year's goes. The point I am making is over the
:08:22. > :08:26.past ten years, our fiscal position has been broadly similar to the UK
:08:27. > :08:30.and coming summer beiges, has been significantly better. If you project
:08:31. > :08:34.forward to the next five years, the future is much more important than
:08:35. > :08:40.the past, onshore revenues are likely to Bath the outstrip the
:08:41. > :08:45.decline in offshore revenues. -- basked in the outstrip. The North
:08:46. > :08:49.Sea contains difficulties for those working in the North Sea and
:08:50. > :08:53.economies on the North East of Scotland. The economy of Scotland is
:08:54. > :08:59.fundamentally strong. Let's look at more than one year. You have said it
:09:00. > :09:04.is a snapshot. Without oil revenues, and there are no oil revenues now,
:09:05. > :09:10.without the revenues, Scotland has run a persistent budget deficit of
:09:11. > :09:15.over 10% every year for 13 years. You have a systemic deficit problem.
:09:16. > :09:20.Why should you not look at oil revenues? Oil revenues are there and
:09:21. > :09:25.have been contributing to the Treasury to the tune of ?300
:09:26. > :09:31.billion. They are not there now. Without them you have run a
:09:32. > :09:35.persistent budget deficit and have done for 13 years. I accept it is
:09:36. > :09:40.the future that matters more than the past. If you look at the
:09:41. > :09:43.projections for the next five years, our onshore revenues, remember more
:09:44. > :09:48.than 90% of the Scottish economy comes from onshore and not offshore.
:09:49. > :09:53.If you look five years ahead, onshore revenues are projected to
:09:54. > :10:01.grow in the region of ?14 billion. That is many times before in
:10:02. > :10:05.offshore revenues in that period. I am not denying the challenge of
:10:06. > :10:09.North Sea and other countries. Norway is facing exactly the same
:10:10. > :10:13.challenge. Because they are better prepared for it and have Stuart did
:10:14. > :10:19.oil resources better, Norway, in the last couple of weeks true down on
:10:20. > :10:26.its massive oil fund. The powers that independence would have given
:10:27. > :10:34.as and we did not vote yes, we have had -- we would have had ability to
:10:35. > :10:36.draw down on that faster. Why are onshore revenues growing less
:10:37. > :10:45.strongly in Scotland than the rest of the UK? That is a long-standing
:10:46. > :10:49.issue. One issue at the heart of that is growth in the heart of
:10:50. > :10:53.London. We are seeing a narrowing in some of the long-standing gap there
:10:54. > :10:58.has been between aspects of the Scottish economy and the UK economy.
:10:59. > :11:01.If we take productivity, for a long time Scotland lags significantly
:11:02. > :11:08.behind the rest of the UK. Over the past years we have close that gap is
:11:09. > :11:12.it that can leave. We still lag behind our European competitors and
:11:13. > :11:16.that is a problem. I am not standing here denying the challenges that the
:11:17. > :11:21.Scottish economy has. In the same way you have been talking about the
:11:22. > :11:25.Chancellor's budget and the same way the UK economy has challenges and
:11:26. > :11:29.across the European Union, they have challenges. There are real strength
:11:30. > :11:36.is in the Scottish economy. The real question should be how we build on
:11:37. > :11:43.and accents are the big strengths. Revenues per person in Scotland
:11:44. > :11:49.where ?10,700 in the years 2011, 20 12. They are now ?10,000, 700 ( even
:11:50. > :11:54.with the growth in revenues. The offshore has offset that. We still
:11:55. > :12:03.have a fundamental deficit problem. I am not denying we have a deficit.
:12:04. > :12:07.The UK has a deficit. Take revenues per head of population, which is
:12:08. > :12:11.what you decided to me there. In the most recent year, our revenues per
:12:12. > :12:18.head of population are broadly similar to the UK. In every one of
:12:19. > :12:21.the past 35 years, revenues per head of population have been higher than
:12:22. > :12:27.the rest of the UK. I accept we have a challenge in the North Sea. I
:12:28. > :12:30.accept that like all oil-producing countries, we have challenges about
:12:31. > :12:34.how we transition away from oil and gas over the years to come, though
:12:35. > :12:37.there is a great deal of attention in the North Sea. These are
:12:38. > :12:41.challenges we should embrace and challenges we should be working out
:12:42. > :12:45.how we face up to and address. Scotland is doing that and we'll do
:12:46. > :12:52.that on the basis of fundamental strengths in our economy. -- will do
:12:53. > :13:00.that. Scotland pays per capita about the same as the UK average. I am
:13:01. > :13:05.talking about the current year. What I am saying is, you cannot judge the
:13:06. > :13:09.economy in one year. It is similar in one year in 34 of the past 35
:13:10. > :13:16.years and has been higher. That is the point I am making. The reason
:13:17. > :13:21.you are running a deficit, per capita spending is so much higher
:13:22. > :13:26.than in Scotland it is ?1400 higher public spending per person.
:13:27. > :13:33.Westminster that is that build it is the difference between tax revenues
:13:34. > :13:40.and what you spend. -- fits that bill. It is a deficit. The UK is in
:13:41. > :13:48.deficit in Scotland is in deficit. It is twice as big! In 2008, 2009,
:13:49. > :13:52.the UK deficit was twice as big as Scotland it will vary from year to
:13:53. > :13:58.year. In terms of the point about per capita spending, there are very
:13:59. > :14:01.good reasons why someone who knows Scotland well, we have a country
:14:02. > :14:06.where one in five of the population lives in a row and remote community.
:14:07. > :14:11.I was Health Secretary for five years. It cost more to deliver
:14:12. > :14:16.health services on an island or rural community than it does in
:14:17. > :14:20.Glasgow. Westminster pays for that, it makes up the difference. If you
:14:21. > :14:25.are independent you would either have to raise taxes or cut spending.
:14:26. > :14:30.What would it be? By how much would you raise taxes and cut spending? We
:14:31. > :14:34.set a budget in devolved Scotland every year. We make choices,
:14:35. > :14:38.sometimes these are tough choices. If Scotland were independent, we
:14:39. > :14:41.would do that as well. The point I am making, the economy of an
:14:42. > :14:45.independent Scotland would face challenges like other economies do.
:14:46. > :14:51.We're in a fundamentally strong position. Employment is higher than
:14:52. > :14:55.any other UK nation. Productivity is growing faster. We have a number of
:14:56. > :15:02.key strengths in the economy. One of the challenges is how we build on
:15:03. > :15:04.these strengths and get our economy growing faster. We have a number of
:15:05. > :15:09.world leading sectors in our economy.
:15:10. > :15:18.The fact is your deficit was ?15 billion, moving with oil revenues at
:15:19. > :15:21.2 billion last year. This year oil revenues are reckoned to be at zero
:15:22. > :15:31.so your budget deficit would get even worse. Two cut your deficit to
:15:32. > :15:38.anything like acceptable levels you would have to increase tax to 16% or
:15:39. > :15:42.cut spending by 14% or a combination of the two, what would it be? We
:15:43. > :15:51.would deal with the deficit in the same way the UK is dealing with the
:15:52. > :15:56.deficit and dealt in the deficit -- with the deficit in 2009/ ten. We
:15:57. > :16:00.would be in the same position as many other countries but we would be
:16:01. > :16:06.in a position where we have got a fundamentally strong economy. I wish
:16:07. > :16:11.Scotland have voted yes in 2014, if it had done we would have spent the
:16:12. > :16:18.last almost two years preparing for Scotland becoming independent. In a
:16:19. > :16:24.negotiation around independence, there would have been discussions
:16:25. > :16:28.about assets, liability, the share of defence spending, so that's what
:16:29. > :16:32.would have been the case if we voted for independence. Looking ahead, we
:16:33. > :16:38.have a strong economy and the challenge is how we grow it even
:16:39. > :16:42.faster. You accept surely that you wouldn't be allowed to join the
:16:43. > :16:48.European Union with a 10% deficit, you would have to agree to Brussels
:16:49. > :16:54.programme, correct? We are getting into some ridiculous territory here
:16:55. > :16:58.and one of the most ridiculous arguments. Scotland wouldn't have
:16:59. > :17:03.been out of the EU, we wouldn't have been in the position of an accession
:17:04. > :17:07.state. It is a bit rich for anybody, given where we are right now, with
:17:08. > :17:11.the prospect of being taken out of the EU ahead of us, for
:17:12. > :17:18.scaremongering about the prospects of that. With two weeks to go until
:17:19. > :17:23.independence, instead of increases in public spending which you
:17:24. > :17:29.announced yesterday... They didn't vote yes. But if it had been, you
:17:30. > :17:32.would have been looking at the list of hospitals and schools to close,
:17:33. > :17:38.you would be the austerity party, that's what you would have to do.
:17:39. > :17:42.That's ridiculous. Countries the world over have deficits and deal
:17:43. > :17:46.with them. We would also have been taking on the greater powers to grow
:17:47. > :17:54.our economy, particularly our own short economy. Italy and Greece had
:17:55. > :18:00.10% deficit and you know the austerity they had to go through. I
:18:01. > :18:04.think this argument starts to tip over into being incredible, we start
:18:05. > :18:08.to compare Scotland, with all of the strength of the Scottish economy, to
:18:09. > :18:12.countries like Greece and Italy. I have spoken about the fundamental
:18:13. > :18:16.strengths of our economy, not least the fact we have had the longest
:18:17. > :18:23.period of economic growth since the devolution. You have said all of
:18:24. > :18:30.that. Yes, we have challenges, but Scotland has a strong economy. Then
:18:31. > :18:41.why do your revenues like you're spending by ?2400 per person? -- lag
:18:42. > :18:49.your spending. We have a deficit like many other countries... Nobody
:18:50. > :18:54.has a deficit like Scotland's. We have a particular issue because of
:18:55. > :18:57.the fall in North Sea revenues. It is an indictment of Westminster
:18:58. > :19:07.mismanagement that unlike Norway, we don't have a massive oil fund to
:19:08. > :19:10.help deal with that. Westminster is paying for your deficit, Westminster
:19:11. > :19:14.is paying for the difference for the rest of the deficit, would you like
:19:15. > :19:19.to thank the rest of the people of the United Kingdom for making up for
:19:20. > :19:25.the deficit you have got? Westminster has a deficit of its
:19:26. > :19:32.own, it is ?1 trillion in debt. That is not the deficit, that is the
:19:33. > :19:35.debt. That is why I said debt, I understand the difference between
:19:36. > :19:41.deficit and debt, but it has accumulated debt of ?1 trillion, it
:19:42. > :19:45.has an annual deficit just like Scotland and many other countries
:19:46. > :19:51.do. It is actually 1.5 trillion, even worse than you think. I was
:19:52. > :19:53.being kind to them, Andrew! You should be kind because they are
:19:54. > :19:57.saving you quite a bit of money! Does Labour have a problem dealing
:19:58. > :19:59.with allegations of anti-semitism? The party is worried enough to have
:20:00. > :20:02.established an inquiry into the Labour Club
:20:03. > :20:03.at Oxford University where there are accusations that
:20:04. > :20:06.members used off-colour language And the Sunday Politics has been
:20:07. > :20:09.told that the investigation will look at new claims
:20:10. > :20:13.from another university. It comes after an activist
:20:14. > :20:16.with controversial views was allowed back into the party then promptly
:20:17. > :20:18.chucked out again last week. Does Jeremy Corbyn's support
:20:19. > :20:23.for causes like the Palestinians or Stop The War mean he's not tough
:20:24. > :20:27.enough when there are allegations It's seen that way by some
:20:28. > :20:30.students at Oxford. Last month the vice-chair
:20:31. > :20:33.of the Labour club there resigned, claiming some members had a problem
:20:34. > :20:39.with Jews and used words like Zio, a nickname for Jewish people that
:20:40. > :20:42.many find offensive. It's now being investigated
:20:43. > :20:45.by the Labour peer Baroness Royle, who is also looking at the wider
:20:46. > :20:47.issue of behaviour in We understand she's now
:20:48. > :20:50.extended her investigation to include students
:20:51. > :20:53.at the London School of Economics. This week, they have been electing
:20:54. > :20:56.a new general secretary One of the candidates,
:20:57. > :21:03.Rayhan Uddin, who's also in the Labour group,
:21:04. > :21:05.has been criticised for some Facebook posts that emerged
:21:06. > :21:09.during the campaign. In one, he talked about leading
:21:10. > :21:12.Zionists wanting to take over the student union to make it right
:21:13. > :21:18.wing and Zio again. Facebook post:
:21:19. > :21:33.of language, writing in another He has been referred to Labour's
:21:34. > :21:35.investigation into student politics by someone
:21:36. > :21:39.who now works for an MP. We've seen the letter they wrote,
:21:40. > :21:49.which said: Because it was an older generation
:21:50. > :21:58.of activists that came up at Prime Minister's
:21:59. > :22:00.Questions this week. I was completely appalled to see
:22:01. > :22:03.yesterday that the Labour Party has readmitted someone to their party
:22:04. > :22:07.who says, and I believe that the 9/11 suicide bombers,
:22:08. > :22:12.and I quote, must never be condemned and belongs to an organisation that
:22:13. > :22:15.says "we defend the Islamic State He was referring to Gerry Downing,
:22:16. > :22:21.who had also blogged about what he called
:22:22. > :22:25.the Jewish question, after being readmitted to the party
:22:26. > :22:28.this week he was resuspended. He reckons it's really a battle
:22:29. > :22:31.between different wings in Labour. You've said there is a conspiracy
:22:32. > :22:35.of people out to get Jeremy Corbyn, Well, Dan Jarvis and these people
:22:36. > :22:40.of course, obviously there's the whole Blairite wing of the party
:22:41. > :22:45.and others, who have been absolutely disgusted at the membership
:22:46. > :22:48.and the left-wing surge in the membership and can't
:22:49. > :23:00.believe what happened. And do you think they are using race
:23:01. > :23:04.and religion as a tool for that? Whereas the Labour MP Wes Streeting
:23:05. > :23:08.says there is a problem I think in certain parts
:23:09. > :23:11.of the British left, there has always been a virulent
:23:12. > :23:15.form of pretty bigoted politics, particularly in terms
:23:16. > :23:22.of anti-Semitism, which has been an issue in some of our university
:23:23. > :23:24.campuses There's also a mentality
:23:25. > :23:30.which I think has been epitomised by the repulsive use of Mr Downing,
:23:31. > :23:33.which is not so much Stop The War People who seem to hate
:23:34. > :23:38.their country more than they hate And we have got to start sending
:23:39. > :23:44.a far stronger message that this is simply not acceptable
:23:45. > :23:48.in the modern Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn's supporters,
:23:49. > :23:50.like those in the grass roots campaign group Momentum,
:23:51. > :23:54.say none of this is fair on him. Corbyn comes under the most
:23:55. > :23:57.incredible level of attacks and one of the things that he's attacked
:23:58. > :24:00.for is his long-standing commitment to anti-war, anti-imperialism,
:24:01. > :24:08.peace in the Middle East. And I think that's where some
:24:09. > :24:11.of this comes from. He does absolutely condemn
:24:12. > :24:13.anti-Semitism, he has time There is not a shred
:24:14. > :24:16.of anti-Semitism in his personal make-up, in his moral make-up
:24:17. > :24:21.or in his political make-up. And as for Labour's investigation
:24:22. > :24:23.into anti-Semitism among students, there's no time frame
:24:24. > :24:30.for when it will report. Let's speak now to the Labour MP,
:24:31. > :24:36.John Mann, who's chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group
:24:37. > :24:41.against Anti-Semitism. He's in Berlin at an
:24:42. > :24:51.Anti-Semitism Conference. Is there an anti-Semitism problem in
:24:52. > :24:56.the Labour Party? Of course, that's why these issues have got attention.
:24:57. > :25:02.It is not a big problem, but a small problem when it comes to racism
:25:03. > :25:08.needs to be dealt with. We have been here before. I can recall 30 years
:25:09. > :25:13.ago when there were extremists trying to ban Jewish societies in
:25:14. > :25:16.some of the universities, and we clamped down on them very hard then
:25:17. > :25:22.and they weren't in the Labour Party but it is the same kind of people,
:25:23. > :25:26.the same ideology. Some of that has crept into the Labour Party and it
:25:27. > :25:34.needs to be removed. Why has it come back? People could write big
:25:35. > :25:39.academic books on why it has re-surged but what we have seen in
:25:40. > :25:45.history is that anti-Semitism never seems to go away. But why in the
:25:46. > :25:48.Labour Party has come back? People have obviously chosen to dissociate
:25:49. > :25:52.with the Labour Party in the growth of membership, some of those people
:25:53. > :25:59.have attitudes that are very outdated and prejudiced. There is no
:26:00. > :26:04.space for them in the Labour Party and the reason that is important is
:26:05. > :26:06.because I am getting young Jewish activists posturing whether the
:26:07. > :26:12.Labour Party is the place for them in terms of their support, their
:26:13. > :26:20.vote and their activity, and we cannot tolerate a situation where
:26:21. > :26:24.any part of society doesn't feel that a major political party like
:26:25. > :26:28.the Labour Party is not the place for them, which is why prompt
:26:29. > :26:32.effective action and vigilance on this is required, including from
:26:33. > :26:39.Jeremy as the leader of the Labour Party. Is the Labour leader doing
:26:40. > :26:45.enough? Or the fact he has talked about his friends, Hamas, Hezbollah,
:26:46. > :26:52.and shared platforms with people who have been very hostile to Israel and
:26:53. > :26:56.so on, is that a disadvantage? Is it encouraging anti-Semitism or is it
:26:57. > :27:00.not relevant? I have met Jeremy recently to discuss anti-Semitism in
:27:01. > :27:06.the Labour Party and it is clear to me that he does not tolerate or
:27:07. > :27:11.support it but what he has to do is follow that free with actions and
:27:12. > :27:16.ensure that others in the Labour Party follow it through with actions
:27:17. > :27:21.because the kind of thing, the atmosphere that is being created in
:27:22. > :27:26.Oxford University is not a one-off. This has been happening elsewhere as
:27:27. > :27:30.well. While these can be seen as small incidents, if you are the
:27:31. > :27:38.young Jewish person who is impacted by it, it is not small for you and
:27:39. > :27:43.it is magnified in the universities, which are pretty tolerant places and
:27:44. > :27:47.rightly so, if there is in tolerance to any particular group and to
:27:48. > :27:51.Jewish students. We are not prepared to have that in the Labour Party,
:27:52. > :27:55.there has got to be action, it has got to be led from the front and it
:27:56. > :28:02.has got to be decisive action. There is no space for these people in the
:28:03. > :28:07.Labour Party or is there space for people in any way excusing their
:28:08. > :28:13.actions. But there is an inquiry into what has been going on at
:28:14. > :28:17.Oxford, but is your party doing enough about this? Because I
:28:18. > :28:21.understand these inquiries may be subsumed into a much bigger inquiry
:28:22. > :28:28.into bullying and so on. What is your feeling? It is action by
:28:29. > :28:31.results. If there is a decisive action, there will be an almighty
:28:32. > :28:39.row which wouldn't be helpful but the idea that those of us who fought
:28:40. > :28:44.over decades, challenging anti-Semitism and other forms of
:28:45. > :28:48.racism, are going to accept other than the highest of standards in our
:28:49. > :28:56.own party, well I can tell you it is going to happen. There are many of
:28:57. > :29:00.us who will only accept absolutely the highest standards. We are not
:29:01. > :29:05.prepared to tolerate any form of anti-Semitism or any excuse for it
:29:06. > :29:10.in the Labour Party or anywhere else in society. But in our own party
:29:11. > :29:14.absolutely not and therefore there has got to be action, words are not
:29:15. > :29:20.good enough. Historically the Labour Party has done well from the Jewish
:29:21. > :29:24.vote. The Jewish vote over time has tended to vote Labour. If this
:29:25. > :29:31.anti-Semitism continues in your party, are you in danger of losing
:29:32. > :29:35.the Jewish vote? We prepared a report ten years ago on a
:29:36. > :29:39.cross-party basis that highlighted anti-Semitism in all of its aspects
:29:40. > :29:43.including from the right but also what was described by some as the
:29:44. > :29:48.new anti-Semitism on the left. It is not new but it had been dormant for
:29:49. > :29:52.a long period of time. People have been accustomed to the Labour Party
:29:53. > :30:00.and that part of the left being highly tolerant to everybody. That
:30:01. > :30:03.has got to happen, you cannot have a progressive party of any substance
:30:04. > :30:08.in politics if it allows any form of intolerance and therefore we are not
:30:09. > :30:13.prepared to have second-class citizens, second-class form of
:30:14. > :30:17.racism allowed in the Labour Party. Anti-Semitism has got to be
:30:18. > :30:24.challenged, including anti-Semitism on the left, and so robustly and put
:30:25. > :30:32.back in the dustbin again. That is my intention in the Labour Party. I
:30:33. > :30:36.am looking forward to Jeremy and the National Executive being decisive,
:30:37. > :30:39.removing the anti-Semites, going into where there is intolerance and
:30:40. > :30:45.explaining what is anti-Semitism and why we are not prepared to have it
:30:46. > :30:48.in our party. Thanks for joining us this morning.
:30:49. > :30:50.Labour's Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell ran Jeremy Corbyn's
:30:51. > :30:52.leadership campaign on a platform fighting not just austerity,
:30:53. > :30:55.Now though, he wants to be the new voice of fiscal
:30:56. > :30:57.responsibility, and says he's going to re-write
:30:58. > :31:01.In a moment we'll be talking to John McDonnell's number two,
:31:02. > :31:02.the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury.
:31:03. > :31:05.But first let's hear what Mr McDonnell had to say
:31:06. > :31:08.It is a wider ambition then just Labour's fiscal credibility.
:31:09. > :31:11.I want to try to restore credibility to economic policy-making generally,
:31:12. > :31:14.not just within the Labour Party but across politics too.
:31:15. > :31:16.We have had too long, for example, the last six
:31:17. > :31:19.years we have had fiscal rules which have not been met,
:31:20. > :31:24.I am trying to encourage a better economic debate.
:31:25. > :31:27.What I have said is quite clearly, when we go back into government,
:31:28. > :31:31.we will eliminate the deficit, reduce debt, and will
:31:32. > :31:33.ensure that is supervised independently by the Office
:31:34. > :31:40.And Labour's Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Seema Malhotra,
:31:41. > :31:53.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You would balance current spending with
:31:54. > :31:58.revenue and borrow to invest. How does that differ from Mr Brown and
:31:59. > :32:03.Mr balls? You are right about there being two key parts to the new
:32:04. > :32:07.fiscal credibility were all. In a sense, this builds on very much
:32:08. > :32:14.where we have been before. It also responds to the criticisms that were
:32:15. > :32:18.made of Jaws -- George Osborne's this school charter where he was
:32:19. > :32:23.criticised for tying his own hands and not allowing for investment. --
:32:24. > :32:28.fiscal charter. There are two key differences. It makes it more
:32:29. > :32:32.explicit, that there should be independent voices. We have said we
:32:33. > :32:36.want the OBR to be an independent voice around deficit reduction
:32:37. > :32:43.targets, and also reporting directly to Parliament. The second area is
:32:44. > :32:47.that we want to make sure there is the opportunity for investment and
:32:48. > :32:53.also, if there are difficult times, like we had in 2009, when monetary
:32:54. > :32:58.policy does not seem to be working, it gives an opportunity for fiscal
:32:59. > :33:03.policy to work alongside. It builds on but has two key differences. Mr
:33:04. > :33:17.Brown defended his rules as well when times got bad. It was described
:33:18. > :33:24.as being austerity light. This must be as well? It has been developed
:33:25. > :33:27.and the reason... It is not about austerity. It is a framework that
:33:28. > :33:33.will allow us to make spending and tax decisions in the future. It
:33:34. > :33:39.responds to the criticisms, the universal criticisms of George
:33:40. > :33:46.Osborne's this dull charter. -- fiscal charter. It says we need to
:33:47. > :33:51.invest for the future. I understand all that. Mr Brown and Mr Balls also
:33:52. > :33:57.wanted to invest and that was criticised by the Shadow Chancellor
:33:58. > :34:05.as austerity light. If that were austerity light, this is steroid to
:34:06. > :34:14.-- night as well. We're in a situation where George Osborne is
:34:15. > :34:22.blaming everyone but himself. -- this is austerity light as well.
:34:23. > :34:27.George Osborne's Member of Parliament for the Tory Party has
:34:28. > :34:30.said, what we have seen our warm words. He has talked about
:34:31. > :34:38.investment and an export led strategy. This is built on debts,
:34:39. > :34:45.household debt. How much is public investment? Around 30 billion, if
:34:46. > :34:50.you take into account the difference in spending. It is 34 billion in
:34:51. > :34:56.public spending at the moment. It should be much higher. How much more
:34:57. > :35:01.should it be? It should be higher. There is no excuse for what George
:35:02. > :35:07.Osborne has done. I am not asking about Mr Osborne. I am asking about
:35:08. > :35:12.your policy. 34 billion at the moment, rising to 40 billion by 20
:35:13. > :35:23.20. How much more would it be? It focuses on where it needs to be
:35:24. > :35:28.regarding GDP. You need to have a good level of investment so you are
:35:29. > :35:34.creating jobs for the future. What I am trying to work out is what this
:35:35. > :35:38.means in hard cash for investment, how big would investment be under a
:35:39. > :35:45.Labour government? It is clear that George Osborne has been cutting
:35:46. > :35:49.investment. It was around 3%, 3.5%, and is now 1.4% in terms of
:35:50. > :35:55.infrastructure. If you want jobs of the future coming through, if you
:35:56. > :35:58.want to turn around the situation where young people... By how much
:35:59. > :36:02.more would public investment increase under this formula? What we
:36:03. > :36:06.have said is you need to make sure that we have a balance of where the
:36:07. > :36:11.economy needs investment so we can get tax receipts and growth for the
:36:12. > :36:15.future. We had economists saying that George Osborne, if you talk
:36:16. > :36:21.about fairness in the future... I am here to talk about the labour policy
:36:22. > :36:25.and not that of George Osborne. Nor has there been balanced growth. If
:36:26. > :36:34.you want a balanced budget, you need to balance growth. Let's talk about
:36:35. > :36:37.labour. John McDonnell has talked about the difference between
:36:38. > :36:41.short-term and long-term investment. What is the difference? What we have
:36:42. > :36:45.said as she want to see investment that will see us having a big stake
:36:46. > :36:55.in the future. If you want to look at energy investment, you are
:36:56. > :37:02.talking out about -- about 20, 30 years. It is about supporting
:37:03. > :37:06.companies, entrepreneurs and supporting the long-term growth for
:37:07. > :37:09.the country as well. If you're talking about rail, roads and
:37:10. > :37:16.infrastructure, you will be aware, I am sure, of the reports that showed
:37:17. > :37:19.recently we have fewer buses than 2010, our rolling stock and trains
:37:20. > :37:25.are in poor condition, people are taking longer to get to work and the
:37:26. > :37:29.trains are more crowded. That should be a wake-up call to George Osborne
:37:30. > :37:33.he is not working in the interests of the British public and people are
:37:34. > :37:41.asking if the decisions are based on political interest and not on the
:37:42. > :37:43.country's future. You would balance current spending, day-to-day
:37:44. > :37:49.spending. At the moment there is a deficit. What would you cut to
:37:50. > :37:53.balance current spending? There are two things. The first is about
:37:54. > :37:58.spending decisions and the second about tax receipts. We are arguing
:37:59. > :38:02.that if you want to see tax receipts grow, George Osborne has seen them
:38:03. > :38:11.for in regard to productivity growth. What would you cut? We would
:38:12. > :38:16.want to see that growth increases in that you see an increase in tax
:38:17. > :38:23.receipts. You cannot spend if it is not within your means. What would
:38:24. > :38:25.you cut? You cannot spend if it is not within your means. What the
:38:26. > :38:30.announcement from the Labour Party is about is how we earn our way in
:38:31. > :38:32.the world and survived in a competitive economy. We will leave
:38:33. > :38:37.it there. Thank you very much. It's just gone 11:35am,
:38:38. > :38:46.you're watching the Sunday Politics. Hello and welcome to
:38:47. > :38:49.the Sunday Politics Wales. Carwyn Jones says he's halfway
:38:50. > :38:53.through a decade of delivery. But as the curtain falls
:38:54. > :38:57.on the current Sssembly, And the Conservative leader in Wales
:38:58. > :39:01.tells us why he cannot protect any spending apart from health
:39:02. > :39:07.if he becomes First Minister. When politicians make promises,
:39:08. > :39:10.we expect them to keep them, The First Minister has made
:39:11. > :39:14."delivery" a key word Indeed, he says he wants another
:39:15. > :39:19.five years to complete what he calls Cemlyn Davies has been looking
:39:20. > :39:25.at what was promised A reliable delivery service
:39:26. > :39:39.is something we have come to expect. It is so easy these
:39:40. > :39:45.days to get what we want And when we have been
:39:46. > :39:55.promised that we will get something we assume it'll
:39:56. > :39:56.be delivered on time Five years ago the First Minister
:39:57. > :40:02.made that exact point in a speech to civil servants at
:40:03. > :40:06.Welsh Government HQ. Delivery is going
:40:07. > :40:10.to be the watchword. We want to make sure
:40:11. > :40:14.that we deliver for Wales. To ensure that would be
:40:15. > :40:18.the case, Carwyn Jones set up a delivery unit to monitor
:40:19. > :40:20.the performance of Welsh Government Now, with another election
:40:21. > :40:25.looming he and his ministers believe they have
:40:26. > :40:28.delivered, fulfilling Welsh Labour's The Welsh Government
:40:29. > :40:34.has created a young peoples It has also increased
:40:35. > :40:39.school spending compared to the money it gets
:40:40. > :40:42.from Westminster and doubles the number of young children
:40:43. > :40:45.benefiting from the Flying Start Project, setup to help disadvantaged
:40:46. > :40:50.families. The government has also funded
:40:51. > :40:53.the employment of 500 extra Community Support Officers
:40:54. > :40:57.and there is data to back up the claim access to GPs has
:40:58. > :41:03.improved since 2011. Although opposition
:41:04. > :41:06.parties dispute that. On the face of it, superficially,
:41:07. > :41:09.you could say they have delivered. You have to ask how ambitious
:41:10. > :41:16.they were in the first place. That manifesto was fashioned
:41:17. > :41:23.at a time when the Labour Party knew that cuts were coming
:41:24. > :41:26.through in the block grants and therefore the commitments they
:41:27. > :41:31.made back in 2011 were cautious. There was nothing there
:41:32. > :41:35.about what might be achieved in terms of outcomes,
:41:36. > :41:38.about achieving strategic It was a narrowing of the criteria
:41:39. > :41:43.on which they would And you think that was
:41:44. > :41:48.completely deliberate? I think it was intelligent
:41:49. > :41:53.if you like back in 2011. It allows Carwyn Jones
:41:54. > :41:57.to say in interviews now, And Carwyn Jones is now hoping
:41:58. > :42:02.for another term to finish In 2011, I promised a decade
:42:03. > :42:08.of delivery, a ten year focus on the bread and butter issues that
:42:09. > :42:13.matter to people's everyday lives. We are halfway through that decade
:42:14. > :42:16.of delivery and we can't afford In the meantime, opposition parties
:42:17. > :42:25.are unimpressed with the They point to longer
:42:26. > :42:29.waiting times for treatment They also point out just two GP
:42:30. > :42:34.surgeries across Wales offer Meanwhile, GCSE results
:42:35. > :42:39.here continue to lag behind England and the latest stats show
:42:40. > :42:44.economic growth in Wales Carwyn Jones' term in office has
:42:45. > :42:51.been abject failure. He claims that Labour
:42:52. > :42:55.is delivering, but what have his government actually
:42:56. > :42:58.achieved beyond the disappointment The Welsh Government
:42:59. > :43:02.was meant to understand Wales's needs better
:43:03. > :43:06.than Whitehall bureaucrats Meant to deliver Welsh
:43:07. > :43:11.solutions to our problems, The truth is that creating
:43:12. > :43:16.the Welsh Government It has been more
:43:17. > :43:24.like decades of decay. And so with polling
:43:25. > :43:32.day less than two months away what can we expect
:43:33. > :43:36.over the coming weeks? What is coming through very
:43:37. > :43:38.clearly is that Labour have a clear strategy of how
:43:39. > :43:42.they want to fight the election. It is a defensive election
:43:43. > :43:44.for them but they have staked out a ground that
:43:45. > :43:47.goes back five years, it started in that manifesto five
:43:48. > :43:51.years ago, of a cautious set of objectives which they can say
:43:52. > :43:53.they have delivered, they are delivering
:43:54. > :43:56.competent government. The onus is on the other parties
:43:57. > :43:59.to raise the level of debate and I'm not seeing them
:44:00. > :44:01.doing it at the moment. But I think they need to go
:44:02. > :44:09.above simply carping at Labour They need to project a bit
:44:10. > :44:16.of vision, a bit of imagination into the whole way
:44:17. > :44:20.the election is contested. Soon enough all the parties
:44:21. > :44:22.will be showing us their menus and they will be
:44:23. > :44:26.hoping their slice of Assembly seats after the election will give them
:44:27. > :44:33.a chance to deliver their policies. So that's the story so far
:44:34. > :44:37.from the Labour Government. But the main opposition in Wales,
:44:38. > :44:39.the Conservatives have Their leader, Andrew R T Davies
:44:40. > :44:44.wants to be the next First Minister, and told his party's conference
:44:45. > :44:49.in Llangollen that this year But when it comes to his spending
:44:50. > :44:55.plans the only guarantee he gives Beyond that he says we'll just
:44:56. > :44:59.have to wait and see. He spoke to our political
:45:00. > :45:03.editor, Nick Servini. Andrew RT Davies, welcome
:45:04. > :45:05.to the Sunday Politics Wales. I want to start by
:45:06. > :45:07.talking about the speech A lot of people I've spoken to have
:45:08. > :45:13.read into it as something Not only did he barely mention
:45:14. > :45:19.you, he spent most of the speech talking about how a withdrawal
:45:20. > :45:23.from Europe would be disastrous for Welsh
:45:24. > :45:25.farming. And you are a farmer of course.
:45:26. > :45:30.You want us to leave. The Prime Minister came
:45:31. > :45:33.here with the intention to promote the Assembly campaign
:45:34. > :45:35.which is on May the 5th but also, there
:45:36. > :45:37.is a referendum campaign That referendum campaign
:45:38. > :45:42.is being fought across the whole He had two messages he needed
:45:43. > :45:45.to deliver yesterday. The Prime Minister and myself
:45:46. > :45:49.disagree on the European referendum question but that is why
:45:50. > :45:51.we have a referendum. It is a big constitutional
:45:52. > :45:54.question that every man and woman have a chance to vote
:45:55. > :45:57.in over the age of 18. The key fact for us is the Assembly
:45:58. > :46:01.election and whether we want to continue with more decline that
:46:02. > :46:04.Labour has given us for the last 17 years or whether we want
:46:05. > :46:07.to transform the Welsh economy. We want to reinvigorate the NHS
:46:08. > :46:10.and deliver excellence in education. You must be disappointed,
:46:11. > :46:12.though, he barely Together with a load of other people
:46:13. > :46:18.right at the beginning. You want to be the First
:46:19. > :46:20.Minister of Wales. speech conference after confidence
:46:21. > :46:25.that is the way the Prime Minister's I can point you to a number
:46:26. > :46:29.of speeches, it is the way he deals with these matters when he goes
:46:30. > :46:31.around the conferences, The fact of the matter is,
:46:32. > :46:35.we as the Welsh Conservatives are focused on one goal only
:46:36. > :46:38.up until May the 5th and that is delivering
:46:39. > :46:40.a Conservative government to the National Assembly for Wales
:46:41. > :46:42.so you can have investment in the health service,
:46:43. > :46:45.you can have excellence in education and you can have good quality jobs
:46:46. > :46:47.with take-home pay rise. I will touch on those
:46:48. > :46:50.issues but I want to He says you are fundamentally wrong
:46:51. > :46:57.in your view of what a withdrawal I don't know how long David Cameron
:46:58. > :47:03.has spent on a farm, What does he know about
:47:04. > :47:08.farming that you don't? I've got my two sons
:47:09. > :47:15.and daughter who want to come Before I go to work to do
:47:16. > :47:19.the politics, I work on that farm I know what is good
:47:20. > :47:23.for Welsh agriculture and I will tell you this much,
:47:24. > :47:26.the decline in dairy farmers The decline in family farms in Wales
:47:27. > :47:31.isn't good for Welsh agriculture. Ultimately, the lack
:47:32. > :47:33.of opportunities for young people to come into agriculture is not good
:47:34. > :47:36.for Welsh agriculture. What we need is to make
:47:37. > :47:39.sure we have a vibrant, thriving Welsh agricultural industry
:47:40. > :47:43.and we can have that debate, we can have that discussion
:47:44. > :47:45.after May fifth. But what we need is a Welsh
:47:46. > :47:48.Government that delivers on bovine TB, delivers on getting support
:47:49. > :47:52.into Welsh agriculture rather than modulating farming
:47:53. > :47:54.out of existence. I will finish on this
:47:55. > :47:56.point if I may, we can either farm for subsidies
:47:57. > :47:59.or we can farm for food. Ultimately, food security
:48:00. > :48:02.is the biggest goal that this country has got to securing
:48:03. > :48:04.the future going forward. Year-on-year, since
:48:05. > :48:09.the Common Agricultural Policy came into existence,
:48:10. > :48:11.food security for this country He talked a lot in that
:48:12. > :48:17.speech yesterday about 40% potential tariff on Welsh lamb
:48:18. > :48:19.exports, for example. You can't give an assurance
:48:20. > :48:23.that there won't be a tariff in the event of a
:48:24. > :48:25.withdrawal, can you? We import 435 million pounds worth
:48:26. > :48:31.of beef into the United Kingdom. We export about ?120 million out
:48:32. > :48:35.of the United Kingdom. The bulk of that imported
:48:36. > :48:37.beef into the UK comes Those countries are going to want
:48:38. > :48:42.to trade with this country because their market is bigger
:48:43. > :48:44.coming into these countries If you can tell me the million
:48:45. > :48:48.jobs in engineering in Germany they are going to turn
:48:49. > :48:52.their back on this country or the five million jobs across
:48:53. > :48:54.the European Union that is relying on trading with Britain,
:48:55. > :48:56.the ?60 billion surplus they trade with the UK
:48:57. > :48:59.is going to be turned away What we need with Europe
:49:00. > :49:04.is a good, solid trading relationship that secures economic
:49:05. > :49:08.prosperity not political union. I go back to my point,
:49:09. > :49:11.May the 5th is the critical time frame that people can
:49:12. > :49:14.vote for the first time in five years to reinvigorate the NHS,
:49:15. > :49:16.get excellence in education and make sure that we have an economy that
:49:17. > :49:21.gives decent take-home pay. You have been criticised
:49:22. > :49:25.in the past, particularly at the time of the last Assembly
:49:26. > :49:28.elections, you as a party, There was a proposed 20% reduction
:49:29. > :49:34.in the education budget... There was a proposaly
:49:35. > :49:39.that was set out. It was never proposed
:49:40. > :49:42.by the Welsh Conservatives. It's proposed by Carwyn Jones time
:49:43. > :49:45.and time again because of some clip that Nick Bourne gave
:49:46. > :49:47.to the TV cameras but it was never in a manifesto and
:49:48. > :49:51.it was never in a policy position. What is going to happen
:49:52. > :49:53.to the education budget under a future
:49:54. > :49:54.Conservative government? We want to make sure
:49:55. > :49:56.we can fund schools directly to free up between ?50
:49:57. > :49:59.and ?70 million out of the bureaucracy, that
:50:00. > :50:02.money hits the classroom. What we have announced as well
:50:03. > :50:05.for tuition fee policies is a ?400 million support package for students
:50:06. > :50:09.over the five years of the Assembly that will pay students directly
:50:10. > :50:12.for their living costs. No other party has come clean
:50:13. > :50:15.on how they will fund Importantly, we see
:50:16. > :50:19.the importance of vocational FE, as well, needs to stand
:50:20. > :50:24.shoulder to shoulder with HE so we have a
:50:25. > :50:27.balanced education system and students and pupils can
:50:28. > :50:31.reach their full potential. We have said the NHS
:50:32. > :50:35.is the number one... What is going to happen
:50:36. > :50:38.to the education budget? The education budget
:50:39. > :50:40.will have more money freed up to its because we want
:50:41. > :50:42.to fund schools directly. We will be making sure that money
:50:43. > :50:45.hits the classroom rather than staying in County Hall
:50:46. > :50:47.or central bureaucracy. The overall education
:50:48. > :50:51.budget will increase under a Conservative government
:50:52. > :50:53.in Cardiff Bay? I just mapped out to you what our
:50:54. > :50:56.policy is on education, about how we want to
:50:57. > :50:58.get more money into schools and we have announced
:50:59. > :51:01.what we will do for HE and funding Does that mean the overall increase
:51:02. > :51:06.in education budgets will increase? I would like to see as much money
:51:07. > :51:09.going into public services as possible in Wales,
:51:10. > :51:11.but what we have to be aware of is our money
:51:12. > :51:14.is dependent on coming from There are spending reviews,
:51:15. > :51:19.there are budgets every year and there are consequentials that
:51:20. > :51:23.flow out of those budgets. We are talking about a five-year
:51:24. > :51:25.period, where that money comes available we will want to put
:51:26. > :51:28.it into front-line services. It would be wrong
:51:29. > :51:30.of me at this stage to say I can guarantee X, Y or Z,
:51:31. > :51:33.other than the health budget because ultimately we know
:51:34. > :51:37.the Westminster government has given a protection of the health budget
:51:38. > :51:40.in England with an extra ?8 billion There will be a direct consequential
:51:41. > :51:44.coming over from that budget and we can guarantee 500 million
:51:45. > :51:48.we will receive over the five years of the Assembly
:51:49. > :51:50.will go into the Welsh NHS. You have two main policies
:51:51. > :51:57.on this, directly elected health
:51:58. > :51:59.commissioners and what you call What is that going to
:52:00. > :52:03.do to waiting lists? How is that going to shorten waiting
:52:04. > :52:06.times for patients in Wales? It has to be taken in
:52:07. > :52:08.the round of what we propose, protecting the health
:52:09. > :52:11.budget so that is investment secured so those commissioners of health
:52:12. > :52:13.care knowing they will get those In this Assembly,
:52:14. > :52:16.Welsh Labour along with Plaid Cymru and the Liberal
:52:17. > :52:18.Democrats cut those budget lines so commissioners couldn't
:52:19. > :52:21.commission services. Directly elected commissioners
:52:22. > :52:23.of health in the regions of the health boards will be
:52:24. > :52:27.directly accountable to those communities and people will be
:52:28. > :52:31.a power to drive change within those Ultimately, a Keogh-style inquiry
:52:32. > :52:34.will deliver on people's concerns about poor
:52:35. > :52:37.standards of care. We have excellence in many areas
:52:38. > :52:40.of the health service across Wales but where there are concerns such
:52:41. > :52:43.as the Public Service Ombudsman outlined this week, they need to be
:52:44. > :52:47.addressed not like Labour's policy of brushing this under the carpet
:52:48. > :52:50.such as we had in Mid Staffs. Andrew RT Davies,
:52:51. > :52:53.thank you very much. It's that time of year again
:52:54. > :52:59.where the Chancellor reveals what's in his red box as he
:53:00. > :53:02.outlines his budget. But this morning, George Osborne has
:53:03. > :53:04.been saying he'll have to make further cuts to public spending
:53:05. > :53:07.because the global economy Joining me now are two people who've
:53:08. > :53:14.seen many Chancellors come and go. Victoria Winckler from
:53:15. > :53:17.the Bevan Foundation think tank, and Professor Patrick Minford who's
:53:18. > :53:35.advised many of them Thank you both are coming in. When
:53:36. > :53:38.you are here George Osborne saying there is less money about and they
:53:39. > :53:44.will have to be further savings, what does that make you think?
:53:45. > :53:50.First of all, the savings are not inevitable. This is a regime he has
:53:51. > :53:55.imposed on himself. If we still accept he wants to make savings of
:53:56. > :54:01.cuts as other people might call them, I think that makes me really
:54:02. > :54:05.quite concerned. We see public services cost very much to the bone
:54:06. > :54:08.now and we see welfare payments really going down and down to
:54:09. > :54:12.individuals and making life difficult. I accept the Chancellor's
:54:13. > :54:17.options are difficult but the prospect of more cuts is not one
:54:18. > :54:21.that would make me happy. Do you think when we look at welfare cuts,
:54:22. > :54:28.for example, those Kurds we have already seen has gone down as fat as
:54:29. > :54:36.they can go. How damaging with any more cuts speakers Mike Weir to
:54:37. > :54:41.start thinking about what is the innovative -- acceptable? We're not
:54:42. > :54:49.far off the floor. Groups of people. The cuts to housing benefit, the
:54:50. > :54:56.macro to disability benefits mean there is no moral fact any more. You
:54:57. > :54:59.have advised a few Conservative chancellors in your time. If you had
:55:00. > :55:04.the year of George Osborne what would it be? You have got a separate
:55:05. > :55:07.George Osborne boss Mike Retallick from what he is delivering. It has
:55:08. > :55:13.been much slower than the Retallick when implied. We started out in the
:55:14. > :55:20.beginning of the recession with 10% of national income deficit. We're
:55:21. > :55:25.down to just under five. Was to get into surplus by 2020. He slipped, he
:55:26. > :55:31.was originally going to get it balanced by now. Leading figures
:55:32. > :55:37.with a large pinch of salt. He is trying to put a more disciplined on
:55:38. > :55:40.the public sector to deliver better solutions, more innovative
:55:41. > :55:47.solutions. The cuts have succeeded in delivering less government
:55:48. > :55:52.spending, more efficiency. That is fine. The bee problem is his tax
:55:53. > :55:57.behaviour has been random. But there's a lot of complexity of the
:55:58. > :56:00.tax system. He brought in a national living wage which looks like a
:56:01. > :56:07.tremendous own goals as that will raise wages for the lowest paid by
:56:08. > :56:11.40% by 2020. That looks like it could be a real problem for him.
:56:12. > :56:15.This morning he was on the Andrew Marr programme and said further
:56:16. > :56:20.efficiencies would form part of the savings. If you look at the
:56:21. > :56:24.Whitehall departments that have seen huge swathes of cuts, they are down
:56:25. > :56:27.to the bone already. In terms of efficiency savings.
:56:28. > :56:34.We never really know with public spending. Little servants don't get
:56:35. > :56:39.serious about changing the way they do things until they are faced with
:56:40. > :56:43.no alternative. Then they discover better ways of delivering. They
:56:44. > :56:49.become more efficient. The Treasury is an old hand at this. They say the
:56:50. > :56:52.only way they can have the public servers to innovate is saying there
:56:53. > :56:56.is no more money. Politics takes over the do the same thing. We
:56:57. > :57:02.should take it with a pinch of salt. There are lots of ways in which
:57:03. > :57:11.governments can be delivered cheaply. We are facing a growing
:57:12. > :57:15.economy, he has done pretty well, George Osborne, in the performance
:57:16. > :57:18.of the economy. Looking at what he might be able to play around with.
:57:19. > :57:24.There was a manifesto commitments last year, a once to increase
:57:25. > :57:28.personal allowance on tax to 12,000. Would that be something you would be
:57:29. > :57:32.willing to see jettisoned in order to spend more on something like
:57:33. > :57:36.welfare? The increase in personal allowance
:57:37. > :57:39.is no greater benefits for people who are earning less than that
:57:40. > :57:43.amount. There are a lot of people earning less than that. For people
:57:44. > :57:49.earning just over that, it doesn't make a huge difference. For me, from
:57:50. > :57:56.a social justice perspective, raising the tax allowance is not a
:57:57. > :58:01.significant one. To keep that level and to be able to maintain
:58:02. > :58:04.expenditure on some aspects of welfare benefits, some aspects of
:58:05. > :58:10.the health service would be welcome. One of the things he could do, he
:58:11. > :58:14.was to take the threshold for top earners to 50000 by 2020, if he
:58:15. > :58:20.ditched that that is saving 6 billion. Is that the type of thing
:58:21. > :58:25.he will have to look at? Ditching those tax cuts that Willie manifesto
:58:26. > :58:28.commitment? I agree with Victoria on this business of the personal
:58:29. > :58:35.allowance. It is a very cost ineffective way of helping lower
:58:36. > :58:40.income people. This is where Osborne has got real problems. He doesn't
:58:41. > :58:44.understand why tax credits are deficient to incentivise people into
:58:45. > :58:48.the labour market. That is where he has got it wrong. The balance
:58:49. > :58:52.between the national living wage and tax credit and personal allowance
:58:53. > :58:57.which is a total waste of money. It doesn't affect the tax raise of the
:58:58. > :59:00.people on low incomes stop it sounds to me like he has backed himself
:59:01. > :59:08.into a corner because he doesn't have that much money for wiggle
:59:09. > :59:14.room. What do you expect? What do expect he will pull out of the hat?
:59:15. > :59:17.Nottingham North. He is going to raise insurance premium tax. He will
:59:18. > :59:23.tax the banks again. It doesn't make a lot of sense. He has got himself
:59:24. > :59:29.caught in this abolition of tax credits, through the universal cap
:59:30. > :59:35.that is coming in. He has got himself into a corner. He had to
:59:36. > :59:38.adjust, we have to have a new Chancellor to start again and get
:59:39. > :59:44.this thing right. He has made a terrible mess of this area of
:59:45. > :59:48.policy. Short of that nuclear, do you think it is something in terms
:59:49. > :59:52.of fuel duty as the prices of oil has been falling and falling, we are
:59:53. > :00:08.seeing less than a pound per litre diesel and petrol. My Bass might he
:00:09. > :00:14.be looking about? I think there are also taxes that
:00:15. > :00:21.there is a lot of support for. Tax and added sugar in food. Whole areas
:00:22. > :00:25.of taxing he could be looking at and which could generate income and
:00:26. > :00:30.reduce the harm. When we saw yesterday, half a million people
:00:31. > :00:33.with disabilities are going to be effective now because of changes to
:00:34. > :00:39.personal independence payments, when Osborne is so focused on getting to
:00:40. > :00:41.grips with welfare bill and payments, you are talking about that
:00:42. > :00:47.this morning, is a something he needs to do from eight public
:00:48. > :00:53.spending points of view on visits a philosophical aim he has? It is
:00:54. > :00:58.philosophical. He has got himself into a twist on this whole issue.
:00:59. > :01:02.There are problems with welfare, now be reasonable limits. In the whole
:01:03. > :01:09.structure of this thing we have to stick with tax credits. If he wants
:01:10. > :01:12.to be a tax reform which he is the opposite, he needs to simplify the
:01:13. > :01:16.tax system particularly at the top weather is a massive network of high
:01:17. > :01:21.matter tax rates which he is able to drift in and that is a big problem.
:01:22. > :01:27.It doesn't raise any revenue. He's got scope for that. If he focused on
:01:28. > :01:32.that he will be a better Chancellor. Thank you both for coming in this
:01:33. > :01:34.morning. We will have more on that on Wednesday on the budget on all of
:01:35. > :01:35.BBC Wales's programme. Thanks for watching,
:01:36. > :01:43.time to go back to Andrew. for years to come. Thank you very
:01:44. > :01:48.much indeed. Now it is back to Andrew.
:01:49. > :01:51.So, what's in store for us this week?
:01:52. > :01:53.Well, just the small matter of George Osborne's Budget.
:01:54. > :01:56.Another EU summit and the political diary's jam-packed with
:01:57. > :02:03.Let's hear more from our Political Panel, and we're also
:02:04. > :02:09.joined by the Conservative MP, David Davis.
:02:10. > :02:19.100 days to go. Where are we at the moment in this campaign? Just on
:02:20. > :02:25.polling, we are balanced with a large number of uncertainty. What
:02:26. > :02:30.has happened in the last few weeks has been dominated with the flow of
:02:31. > :02:34.events. Turkey has dominated peoples minds and that is what will happen
:02:35. > :02:40.for most of the next 100 days. Events like that will force people.
:02:41. > :02:45.Turkey is about security and immigration and so on. That is a
:02:46. > :02:48.potential backdrop. If the Turkish deal begins to fall apart and the
:02:49. > :02:53.migrant crisis continues, which almost certainly it will, that is
:02:54. > :02:56.the kind of backdrop that is probably more helpful to your side
:02:57. > :03:01.of the referendum than the other one? It is not an accident, a
:03:02. > :03:07.structural outcome of the Schengen zone and the weakness of the eastern
:03:08. > :03:12.border. On other fronts, the financial front, you have the Euro
:03:13. > :03:16.structurally driving events. It seems to me the balance of
:03:17. > :03:23.probabilities in the next 100 days will be those sorts of things are
:03:24. > :03:30.actually going to favour a Brexit. For years and years, Mr Cameron, Mr
:03:31. > :03:37.Osborne, Mr Hague and so on have been spewing out Eurosceptic
:03:38. > :03:42.dialogue. Now they praise our membership of the EU! We cannot
:03:43. > :03:46.survive without the EU. Doesn't that risk jarring a bit with the
:03:47. > :03:51.electorate? I think it is absurd. We have a situation where the Prime
:03:52. > :03:56.Minister gave a big speech at Chatham House. He said can if you
:03:57. > :04:01.could not get the reforms, he would consider the alternative. Everything
:04:02. > :04:05.was on the table. In two options can he would consider campaigning to
:04:06. > :04:11.vote to leave. Now we are told if we left Britain, virtually
:04:12. > :04:16.catastrophic. Plagues of locusts and we will probably all die. You cannot
:04:17. > :04:20.say in November I will leave if I do not get my reforms and now say our
:04:21. > :04:24.country will collapse. That cannot be true, otherwise he would have
:04:25. > :04:31.been willing to leave the EU and risk economic collapse. I think it
:04:32. > :04:38.is scare tactics by Project Fear and it has been very damaging. People
:04:39. > :04:42.like me want Brexit but it is very damaging to the Conservative Party
:04:43. > :04:53.and unity. Howdy you see the campaign going? It has been largely
:04:54. > :05:02.dominated by the Vote Remain rather than the Vote Leave. Vote Remain
:05:03. > :05:09.have chucked a lot at Vote Leave. Many reports have been pumped out.
:05:10. > :05:13.They are in danger of using up all of that arguments for the race has
:05:14. > :05:19.got going. It does look fairly balanced. Some polling has suggested
:05:20. > :05:25.it leans a little towards the remaining side. Whenever people like
:05:26. > :05:29.David or others say it is all Project Fear, for the silent group
:05:30. > :05:32.of people and families with children who are not paying that much
:05:33. > :05:35.attention, if you talk about fear at all, there is a slight sense of
:05:36. > :05:41.maybe there is something to be fearful of after all. It works a
:05:42. > :05:45.bit, I am sure it does, but for how long question that when the Danes
:05:46. > :05:49.had their Euro referendum, the same thing happened. Eventually people
:05:50. > :05:57.were going in for the mockery, as you were, saying we're going to have
:05:58. > :06:01.a 17 foot high fence between us and Germany. That destroyed the campaign
:06:02. > :06:05.for the one thing that has happened is the credibility of the Government
:06:06. > :06:10.are doing has slipped quite a lot in the last few weeks and it is partly
:06:11. > :06:13.because of the exaggeration. You have two friends getting slightly
:06:14. > :06:18.nervous of it, slightly afraid of it, worrying about the risks. On the
:06:19. > :06:23.other hand, they are starting to say, do we really believe all this
:06:24. > :06:29.nonsense? That is the undetermined fact. It has not been a reasonable
:06:30. > :06:35.debate about facts. Is it too early to see who has been nudging ahead?
:06:36. > :06:43.What is significant is that David Davis has a tie in the colours of
:06:44. > :06:54.Vote Leave. The other one is a green tie with black writing. This is an
:06:55. > :06:56.issue of taste. I think what we are learning is the Brexit side is
:06:57. > :07:01.winning skirmishes. The reason they are doing that is because they are
:07:02. > :07:05.an insurgency. With an insurgency, it has six Cabinet ministers in it
:07:06. > :07:11.and that is exciting. You will clearly set the news agenda. The
:07:12. > :07:15.battle in the overall war, you would assume that Remain is nudging ahead
:07:16. > :07:22.because the polling after the Prime Minister Pozner Diehl said voters
:07:23. > :07:27.were impressed by that. Vote Leave have an incredibly simple and
:07:28. > :07:31.incredibly powerful message. Take back control. You may well find that
:07:32. > :07:39.message is so simple and so clear that that might achieve a cut
:07:40. > :07:44.through. Is the queen on the Brexit side or not? I do not think anyone
:07:45. > :07:49.is questioning she is a Eurosceptic. Even at the palace they are not
:07:50. > :07:53.disputing that and the complaint may have made about the story in the Sun
:07:54. > :07:56.newspaper last week. People have said she has in making these
:07:57. > :08:00.comments for some time. Cabinet ministers have told me they do
:08:01. > :08:08.similar things. This woman puts the mother bubble things -- the
:08:09. > :08:14.Commonwealth above all things. She defends the laws and traditions of
:08:15. > :08:20.this country as well. Not Brexit necessarily but Eurosceptic? That
:08:21. > :08:27.seems incontrovertible. The palace and Number 10 are not disputing that
:08:28. > :08:31.at all. It is great to have the Queen onside but I would like her to
:08:32. > :08:43.have one vote. She does not have a vote at all. Is this more within the
:08:44. > :08:50.Tory family question is it more bitter than you thought? Will it get
:08:51. > :08:54.more bitter as time goes on? Even if Mr Cameron wins, he may find it hard
:08:55. > :08:59.to put it together again. I do not think so. It is robust, pretty
:09:00. > :09:06.robust. To some extent he sets the tone himself if he is rude about
:09:07. > :09:12.Boris, there is a backlash. Some say he regards Boris in the same way he
:09:13. > :09:23.regards Ed Balls. A scan and he cannot stop picking at it. This is
:09:24. > :09:27.outside the house and takes quite a lot of poison out of it. It is
:09:28. > :09:33.robust and fears. People are taking it incredibly seriously. How is
:09:34. > :09:37.Boris doing? Pretty well. What is his real value? He draws attention
:09:38. > :09:42.to the issue and adds credibility to it. He makes the odd mistake and
:09:43. > :09:51.everyone forgives him for it. On balance, very useful and important.
:09:52. > :09:56.What about cross-party appeal? The Government began by emphasising the
:09:57. > :10:00.security implications of staying in, saying we needed to stay because of
:10:01. > :10:04.security. I think they have found that a tough argument because people
:10:05. > :10:08.do not associate EU with security. They will move on economic arguments
:10:09. > :10:14.now. The problem with economic arguments is they are nowhere near
:10:15. > :10:19.well-defined as clear and cut -- clearly cut as they were in 1975.
:10:20. > :10:25.They want to make a big picture argument. David Cameron got this
:10:26. > :10:31.deal on the Friday in Brussels. At 7:30pm, George Osborne was on the
:10:32. > :10:35.today programme making a massive destiny economic security argument.
:10:36. > :10:39.They know you cannot focus on the nitty-gritty of that. You have to
:10:40. > :10:43.make the big picture argument. It is potentially a mixed picture. David
:10:44. > :10:48.was saying earlier there is a major crisis in the Eurozone in the next
:10:49. > :10:52.few months, then that could be difficult. You have the opt out full
:10:53. > :10:57.stop when you are in government, there was an opt out from Britain
:10:58. > :11:06.having to join the euro. There is a major crisis. Two European summits
:11:07. > :11:10.in one week. That was not the case when we voted in 1975. The common
:11:11. > :11:16.market was seen as a successful, economic unit that we needed to
:11:17. > :11:22.join. The atmospherics are very different. For 20 years, it was the
:11:23. > :11:29.most successful economic unit, until about the early 90s. Since then we
:11:30. > :11:36.have got nothing. That is what people are seeing. We are moving on
:11:37. > :11:38.to the economic arguments. We have the budget which frames it. They're
:11:39. > :11:43.going to see Barack Obama coming here towards the end of April.
:11:44. > :11:52.You'll be making the argument and doing several events, as I
:11:53. > :11:56.understand it. He owes him a favour. Basically, what you're going to get
:11:57. > :12:00.as a return to the security argument. Returning to where we
:12:01. > :12:05.started this debate, you have got a situation where events will often
:12:06. > :12:08.favoured the out side but the control and ability to stage managed
:12:09. > :12:16.different moments is with the governments. -- the Government. They
:12:17. > :12:23.published a letter with generals on it and have not signed it. One of
:12:24. > :12:28.the generals came out this morning and said he was supporting the
:12:29. > :12:33.Government. It is from the Scottish referendum playbook. That worked. We
:12:34. > :12:37.saw Nicola Sturgeon struggling an hour ago, to explain basic, fiscal
:12:38. > :12:41.point about an independent Scotland but that is why Scotland voted to
:12:42. > :12:46.stay in the UK. You do not know whether the Government will have
:12:47. > :12:52.that element of certainty. As things stand at the moment, are we in or
:12:53. > :12:56.out? The last time I was here I cautiously gave numbers. I would
:12:57. > :13:05.still cautiously stay in. Depressingly I feel we would remain.
:13:06. > :13:09.In with a suppose so vote. None of you overly enthusiast take. We are
:13:10. > :13:17.right on a knife edge in terms of public opinions. We live in a world
:13:18. > :13:21.where the consensus opinion these days is usually wrong.
:13:22. > :13:25.I'll be back next week, same time same place.
:13:26. > :13:32.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.