:00:40. > :00:50.Iain Duncan Smith follows up his resignation with a blistering
:00:51. > :00:53.attack on George Osborne, saying some of the Chancellor's
:00:54. > :00:56.budget measures are deeply unfair and damaging to the country.
:00:57. > :01:00.It's being seen as a direct attack on Chancellor Osborne -
:01:01. > :01:03.are his leadership hopes now holed below the waterline?
:01:04. > :01:12.Later in the programme, we speak to to civil war over IDS's resignation,
:01:13. > :01:15.Later in the programme, we speak to the new man in charge at the Wales
:01:16. > :01:18.Office. How will things be But with questions
:01:19. > :01:22.over who pays, is the And with me, as always,
:01:23. > :01:31.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:32. > :01:35.Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh, who'll be tweeting
:01:36. > :01:39.throughout the programme So, George Osborne unveiled
:01:40. > :01:45.a Budget which he hoped would satisfy the Tory faithful,
:01:46. > :01:48.generate a feel-good factor in the run up to the EU referendum
:01:49. > :01:51.and enhance his own leadership That strategy started to come off
:01:52. > :01:57.the rails within 24 hours as the Chancellor faced Tory
:01:58. > :02:00.revolts on four fronts. And was blown to smithereens
:02:01. > :02:02.on Friday night when welfare secretary Iain Duncan Smith resigned
:02:03. > :02:06.over savings to disability payments. This morning open warfare
:02:07. > :02:08.is breaking out We'll be devoting the next
:02:09. > :02:19.half hour to this story, with analysis and comment from Nick,
:02:20. > :02:22.Isabel and Janan and interviews with the shadow work and pensions
:02:23. > :02:26.secretary Owen Smith, the Conservative backbencher
:02:27. > :02:29.Heidi Allen, and the head of the Institute for
:02:30. > :02:32.Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson. First, Giles Dilnot reports
:02:33. > :02:35.on the very public falling out at the top of David
:02:36. > :02:38.Cameron's government. When the Chancellor gets badly hurt
:02:39. > :02:43.in an attack from his own side, we shouldn't be
:02:44. > :02:46.surprised where it came Iain Duncan Smith and George Osborne
:02:47. > :02:54.whenever was buddies and they are on the
:02:55. > :02:57.opposite sides of the EU But for nearly six years,
:02:58. > :03:05.they've worked together in government, delivering
:03:06. > :03:07.welfare reform and savings. Last July, when the Chancellor
:03:08. > :03:09.announced the living Those currently on the minimum wage
:03:10. > :03:15.will see that pay rise And whilst in polling,
:03:16. > :03:22.there was popular support for balancing the books
:03:23. > :03:29.and reforming welfare, there was also angry protest,
:03:30. > :03:32.especially from disabled people, who passionately believed
:03:33. > :03:34.they had been targeted The deepest wound
:03:35. > :03:38.a Work and Pensions Secretary could inflict
:03:39. > :03:41.on his own governments, On Wednesday we were touted
:03:42. > :03:51.a budget that would be dull, not much wriggle room or rabbits,
:03:52. > :03:53.sugared or otherwise. Nonetheless, the Chancellor
:03:54. > :03:55.and wannabe PM was The richest 1% pay 28%
:03:56. > :04:00.of all income tax revenue, a higher proportion
:04:01. > :04:08.than in any single year Proof that we are all
:04:09. > :04:13.in this together. But not so for many disabled people
:04:14. > :04:16.and enough Tory MPs, On welfare, last week my right
:04:17. > :04:22.honourable friend the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions,
:04:23. > :04:27.set out changes that will ensure that within the rising disability
:04:28. > :04:30.budget, support is better It was a confirmation of changes
:04:31. > :04:37.that just 48 hours later would see a resignation letter from the man
:04:38. > :04:39.the Chancellor was referring to, questioning if enough
:04:40. > :04:44.is being done to ensure These were changes to personal
:04:45. > :04:50.independence payments that have replaced disability living
:04:51. > :04:54.allowance, that would make it more likely large numbers
:04:55. > :04:57.of recipients got less money, and in some cases
:04:58. > :05:08.much less, in future. Something he regarded
:05:09. > :05:11.as a compromise too far. According to Mr Duncan Smith,
:05:12. > :05:13.the changes had demanded because too much emphasis on money-saving
:05:14. > :05:15.exercises and that his welfare to work reforms
:05:16. > :05:16.could not be repeatedly By this weekend, the government's
:05:17. > :05:22.unofficial paramedic was dispatched to patch up
:05:23. > :05:24.the internal wounds, Mr Duncan Smith's literary
:05:25. > :05:37.cuts had inflicted. by the whole Cabinet on Wednesday
:05:38. > :05:42.morning before the Chancellor And he was obviously
:05:43. > :05:46.part of that process. These proposals came
:05:47. > :05:48.from his department. And the PM's response
:05:49. > :05:54.to the letter stressed... In the hours after
:05:55. > :05:56.the budget, amid angry rumblings from the backbenches,
:05:57. > :05:58.suddenly the government where describing
:05:59. > :06:00.and announced policy Something that has been put forward,
:06:01. > :06:05.there has been a review, And the suggestion
:06:06. > :06:10.the next day from the PM We are going to discuss
:06:11. > :06:15.what we put forward with the disability charities
:06:16. > :06:18.and others, as the Chancellor said It is important this
:06:19. > :06:26.increase in money goes to the people
:06:27. > :06:29.who need it the most. The problem is, the internal party
:06:30. > :06:31.concerns were that it looked like money was going to those that
:06:32. > :06:33.didn't need it most. The headline rate of capital gains
:06:34. > :06:35.tax currently stands at 28%. I am cutting the capital gains
:06:36. > :06:40.tax paid by basic rate Iain Duncan Smith
:06:41. > :06:45.said the disability reforms couldn't be defended
:06:46. > :06:47.within a budget that benefits I'm told this was the most toxic
:06:48. > :06:54.aspect for a large number And that he was not the only
:06:55. > :06:59.conservative in government who'd considered
:07:00. > :07:01.resignation over this. But not everyone was
:07:02. > :07:03.sorry to see him go. The problems have been
:07:04. > :07:10.at the heart of the DWP. I do not see eye to eye
:07:11. > :07:13.with the Treasury, I'm not the Chancellor's
:07:14. > :07:17.biggest supporter, shall we say, but the reality is,
:07:18. > :07:20.in all the experiences I've had, the problems have been
:07:21. > :07:23.with an evangelical point of view, They have consistently
:07:24. > :07:27.failed disabled people As Stephen Crabb takes
:07:28. > :07:32.on work and pensions, But clearly the quiet
:07:33. > :07:40.man reflected if you're going to turn
:07:41. > :07:42.up the volume at all, best rattle the windows
:07:43. > :07:44.of Downing Street. A war of words has now broken out
:07:45. > :07:49.in Iain Duncan Smith's old department, with one junior
:07:50. > :07:51.minister accusing him of "shocking" behaviour,
:07:52. > :07:54.but three other ministers rounding Mr Duncan Smith gave his first
:07:55. > :07:58.post-resignation interview to Andrew Anybody who thinks this
:07:59. > :08:13.is a here today, gone tomorrow I am genuinely frustrated, I have no
:08:14. > :08:18.personal ambitions. If I never go back into government again, I will
:08:19. > :08:23.not cry about that, it is not my ambition. I came into this
:08:24. > :08:27.government, and let me be clear, I came into this government because I
:08:28. > :08:32.cared about welfare reform. I spent eight years in social justice trying
:08:33. > :08:36.to figure out why certain communities were so badly off and
:08:37. > :08:41.how could we get them back to work and solve that one. Everything I
:08:42. > :08:46.have done has been driven by my desire to improve the quality of
:08:47. > :08:50.life for the worst. We can debate my policies, but my motivation has
:08:51. > :08:59.always been a bad back. My motive now, I am concerned that I want to
:09:00. > :09:03.succeed and it cannot do the things it should because it is too focused
:09:04. > :09:18.on narrowly getting the deficit down without saying where it should for.
:09:19. > :09:20.Minutes later the energy secretary Amber Rudd,
:09:21. > :09:23.popped up to attack her former cabinet colleague -
:09:24. > :09:29.saying she resents Mr Duncan Smith's "high moral tone".
:09:30. > :09:37.I do remain perplexed. It indicated he was making progress. He wrote a
:09:38. > :09:41.letter on Thursday night saying what he was doing and why we should
:09:42. > :09:47.support it. So I don't understand. I do remain perplexed about it, but I
:09:48. > :09:53.am disappointed. This is an man I sat a cabinet with for nearly a
:09:54. > :09:58.year. He was a cabinet minister for nearly six years. I do respect him,
:09:59. > :10:03.so to suddenly launch a bombshell on the rest of us in a way that is
:10:04. > :10:15.difficult for us all to understand, is disappointing. It is the Tory
:10:16. > :10:23.party now in open welfare and it is not easily quelled? If Amber Rudd is
:10:24. > :10:27.perplexed, it is a dereliction of duty on her part to understand what
:10:28. > :10:30.has been going on in her own Administration. In a way, there is
:10:31. > :10:36.nothing sudden about this for Iain Duncan Smith, it has been brewing
:10:37. > :10:40.for a long time. She has known that. He has been rustling for a long time
:10:41. > :10:45.whether he can do better, staying where he is and operating within the
:10:46. > :10:50.difficult constraints the Treasury has imposed on him. Or whether he is
:10:51. > :10:54.better off out and saying what he really thinks. That is what tipped
:10:55. > :11:00.him over the edge. The Downing Street strategy is to paint Iain
:11:01. > :11:03.Duncan Smith as a kind of, head-banging Eurosceptic and try to
:11:04. > :11:07.pretend it is all about the EU referendum. I don't think anyone who
:11:08. > :11:11.watched Iain Duncan Smith this morning giving that powerful
:11:12. > :11:16.interview to Andrew Marr, could really doubt that what this is about
:11:17. > :11:20.is Iain Duncan Smith's real desire to do the right thing by the
:11:21. > :11:30.disadvantaged. The rest is just noises off. When you look at some of
:11:31. > :11:36.these clips come he comes out against the welfare cap, to
:11:37. > :11:41.arbitrate. If you are sitting in the Labour Party right now, you will be
:11:42. > :11:48.cutting up that interview and pouring it out at every opportunity.
:11:49. > :11:52.This story will go on and on? I interviewed Iain Duncan Smith about
:11:53. > :11:57.two months after the 2010 election. He said if George Osborne wants me
:11:58. > :12:01.to be a cheese parer and do arbitrate cuts, I will be out.
:12:02. > :12:06.Isabel says commie has been rustling for six years with this. He came
:12:07. > :12:12.into this after the visit to the Easterhouse estate in Glasgow. He
:12:13. > :12:16.had in Europe and championed the vulnerable. He came to it with a
:12:17. > :12:21.mission to try and increase incentives for the low paid to
:12:22. > :12:27.combat to work. To George Osborne, it is the bottom line. But it is not
:12:28. > :12:30.going to go away, you have the extraordinary spectacle of three
:12:31. > :12:34.ministers in his former department, pretty Patel included, putting out
:12:35. > :12:38.statements in support of the Iain Duncan Smith. And you have the
:12:39. > :12:41.pensions minister delivering a Downing Street script saying this is
:12:42. > :12:47.about Europe, even though there is not a word about Europe in Iain
:12:48. > :12:50.Duncan Smith's statement. Ross Altman, who was unhappy with Downing
:12:51. > :12:53.Street and the Treasury on the pension changes coming out and
:12:54. > :12:58.delivering what Downing Street one. It is a mess and it shows the normal
:12:59. > :13:03.discipline you would expect in government really is a challenge but
:13:04. > :13:09.the referendum. It is over the George Osborne? If wasn't on the
:13:10. > :13:14.budget. Tax credits last summer, reversal on pension reforms this
:13:15. > :13:18.year. And now this, you cannot deliver but on Wednesday which is
:13:19. > :13:22.just a proposition by Thursday evening and by Friday evening
:13:23. > :13:34.provokes a senior Cabinet colleagues resignation. It is bad for him.
:13:35. > :13:44.The government should be able to stun them month after a general
:13:45. > :13:47.election Monday, ... And start with them all going in different ways
:13:48. > :13:52.during the referendum, it could get worse. They need this referendum out
:13:53. > :13:57.of the way as quickly as possible. They need a comfortable victory by
:13:58. > :14:00.would suggest, with the remaining side, David Cameron's side to have
:14:01. > :14:07.any chance of putting a look on this. In four years' time, at a
:14:08. > :14:12.general election will determine George Osborne's leadership chances?
:14:13. > :14:15.Quite possibly. I don't know how the Chancellor will put this back
:14:16. > :14:21.together again if you EU referendum campaign. It might not just be a
:14:22. > :14:26.Osborne's future on the line, it could be the Prime Minister's the
:14:27. > :14:30.Chancellor's fate if tied to the Prime Minister. They are the
:14:31. > :14:35.project, they have worked together to make the Conservatives electable
:14:36. > :14:39.again. It George Osborne goes down, David Cameron's position is in
:14:40. > :14:41.doubt. I am not suggesting we care at this point, the it is
:14:42. > :14:50.destabilising. And don't forget Cameron has never
:14:51. > :14:53.been master of these events. As ever, he ain't controlling it. As we
:14:54. > :14:55.know, these things have a life of their own, so it should keep us
:14:56. > :15:03.busy. Iain Duncan Smith's resignation has
:15:04. > :15:05.been simmering for some time but it was triggered by plans
:15:06. > :15:12.to make cuts to disability benefits A few days before George Osborne's
:15:13. > :15:16.budget, the government previewed plans to change the way claimants
:15:17. > :15:21.were assessed for certain disability benefits, saving ?1.3 billion a
:15:22. > :15:26.year. The office of budgetary responsibility said the changes to
:15:27. > :15:32.the personal independence payments, or Pips, would adversely affect
:15:33. > :15:39.370,000 people by 2020. The amount of Paire pick a person receives is
:15:40. > :15:46.decided by awarding points based on need -- the amount of PIP. Grab
:15:47. > :15:50.rails, personal toilet seats, arguing people would audit have
:15:51. > :15:58.these items. Iain Duncan Smith resigned, saying the changes were
:15:59. > :16:02.not responsible. Replying to the resignation, the Prime Minister said
:16:03. > :16:07.it had now been agreed not to proceed with the policies in their
:16:08. > :16:09.current form. But that wasn't the only major criticism levelled at
:16:10. > :16:12.George Osborne's budget. The Chancellor confirmed he will miss
:16:13. > :16:18.Fiorentina of his three fiscal rules. Next financial year, welfare
:16:19. > :16:25.bill cost almost ?120 billion, well over the cap of ?115 billion, which
:16:26. > :16:28.he introduced himself to restrict overall welfare spending. And he
:16:29. > :16:32.also broke his debt rule, which promised that national debt would
:16:33. > :16:38.decline every year as a proportion of national income. This financial
:16:39. > :16:43.year, total debt is expected to be 83.7% of GDP, up from 83.3% in
:16:44. > :16:46.2014-15. We did ask the Government for
:16:47. > :16:48.an interview about the disability But we were told no
:16:49. > :16:51.one was available. It's a familiar refrain these days,
:16:52. > :16:54.especially when the government I'm joined now by the head
:16:55. > :17:06.of the Institute for Welcome to the programme. It looks
:17:07. > :17:11.like the government is making a U-turn on these cuts to disability
:17:12. > :17:17.payments, how big a haul does that blow in the Chancellor's efforts to
:17:18. > :17:20.get a budget surplus by 2020? The truth is we are talking very small
:17:21. > :17:25.numbers in the context of ?800 billion a year or so of spending.
:17:26. > :17:29.The Chancellor is aiming for nearly a billion pound surplus, he doesn't
:17:30. > :17:32.get this, it takes just down to under ten, so in that sense it
:17:33. > :17:39.doesn't matter all that much to his target the 2020. But he has already
:17:40. > :17:42.inked in 3.5 billion of unspecified cuts, we don't know what they would
:17:43. > :17:47.be to get this surplus, but there are about eight or 9 billion of
:17:48. > :17:49.watch some might call jiggery-pokery, cuts to public
:17:50. > :17:56.investment in the final year, and now this. It must make it more
:17:57. > :18:05.difficult for them. There are all sorts of things in the budget aimed
:18:06. > :18:08.at that particular year. Numbers are being moved around and there are
:18:09. > :18:13.some unspecified spending cuts. It is important to see this in the
:18:14. > :18:18.broader context. Unless something awful happens, we will get close to
:18:19. > :18:24.a budget balance in 2019-20, which given that we were over 150 billion
:18:25. > :18:28.in deficit in 2010, the biggest deficit in his time that we have
:18:29. > :18:30.had, to get from their too close to surplus will be quite an
:18:31. > :18:36.achievement. Economically and politically understand it matters
:18:37. > :18:40.enormously, but economically, the difference between a ?10 billion
:18:41. > :18:42.surplus and the deficit is almost hear the dash-mac when neither here
:18:43. > :18:55.nor there. The Treasury would expect that
:18:56. > :18:58.department to find ?1.3 billion elsewhere, is that right? Not
:18:59. > :19:05.necessarily, this is unlike the health budget or the education
:19:06. > :19:12.budget, it is determined by the demands on the budget. So I think if
:19:13. > :19:16.they don't put these changes in, the presumption will be at least that
:19:17. > :19:19.the spending will still be in the budget. The day after the budget,
:19:20. > :19:25.you said the Chancellor had only a 50-50 chance of filling his surplus
:19:26. > :19:31.in 2020. Would you like to recalibrate these odds? It is a
:19:32. > :19:37.relatively small change in the context of where we are, still a
:19:38. > :19:40.50-50 shot. The thing that will determine it is much less changes of
:19:41. > :19:43.this kind and parsley more what happens to the economy, whether the
:19:44. > :19:48.economy does better or worse than currently expected. In many ways,
:19:49. > :19:53.the most important thing we learned on Wednesday is that the O BR has
:19:54. > :19:56.much less optimistic about the economy, and therefore we will all
:19:57. > :20:02.be worse off than we thought we were going to be. The Treasury, as Iain
:20:03. > :20:08.Duncan Smith has been saying, has been clawing away at working age
:20:09. > :20:14.benefits the years, for him this was the final straw. But isn't that
:20:15. > :20:18.inevitable, if you have a government who ring fences pensions and the
:20:19. > :20:22.NHS, the only big travel figure spending line is welfare? If you are
:20:23. > :20:27.looking, like the government has been common to really dramatically
:20:28. > :20:32.reduce the deficit significantly, you are not going to avoid doing
:20:33. > :20:36.things on the welfare side. Much more than ?100 billion was spent on
:20:37. > :20:40.just working age welfare, covered by that welfare cap, which is far more
:20:41. > :20:43.than we spend on almost anything else, apart from health service and
:20:44. > :20:52.pensions. But the Chancellor has created this fiscal position. Even
:20:53. > :20:56.though it was weaker, he cut business rates, he cut corporation
:20:57. > :21:01.tax, capital gains tax, he raised the personal allowance, and he
:21:02. > :21:05.raised 40p income tax threshold. He didn't have to do any of that. Even
:21:06. > :21:10.if he had done only some of that, he would not have had to look for these
:21:11. > :21:13.cuts in disability for study has made that himself will stop you are
:21:14. > :21:17.right, she didn't have to make any of those changes, but it was very
:21:18. > :21:21.clearly in the Conservative manifesto to increase the personal
:21:22. > :21:24.allowance. So presuming that he would have kept the manifesto
:21:25. > :21:29.changes, he would have had to have done that, and has to do quite a lot
:21:30. > :21:32.more route. Cutting those taxes clearly means you have to do some
:21:33. > :21:39.other things to maintain his target. But he didn't have to do them. Also,
:21:40. > :21:42.perhaps his leadership tensions did play a part. There were two major
:21:43. > :21:48.areas where they could have raised a lot of money, pension reform, by
:21:49. > :21:52.taking away the top tax-free, which could have saved billions, and
:21:53. > :21:55.raising the fuel duty. If you don't visit now, when will you? Both could
:21:56. > :21:59.have raised billions and he chose not to do it. Those are two very
:22:00. > :22:04.different kinds of things. Yes, you are right, it is astonishing with
:22:05. > :22:09.petrol prices at their lowest level for a very long time, chatty on
:22:10. > :22:13.petrol at its lowest level since the mid-19 90s, the cost of driving a
:22:14. > :22:17.car at its lowest level for perhaps 30 years. If you can't increase fuel
:22:18. > :22:21.duties even then, that is a long-term problem for the Treasury,
:22:22. > :22:25.because it brings in a lot of money, ?30 billion a year, and if that goes
:22:26. > :22:30.it is a real problem. On pension tax will if it is a much more complex
:22:31. > :22:34.issue. There are good economic arguments, for maintaining it as we
:22:35. > :22:37.have at the moment, and had you got rid of that 40% relief, you would
:22:38. > :22:42.have hit the 5 million or so people who pay 40% tax, it would have been
:22:43. > :22:49.another slice of the population rather unhappy. The national debt,
:22:50. > :22:56.not the deficit, will be 1.7 4 trillion by 20 20. If the government
:22:57. > :23:00.was then to run a surplus of say 10 billion a year for ten years, which
:23:01. > :23:05.would be unprecedented in British government, after a decade, the debt
:23:06. > :23:11.would still, by my simple rhythmic calculation, the ?1.64 trillion. Is
:23:12. > :23:18.that what you mean by economically irrelevant in running a surplus? The
:23:19. > :23:22.key point about the size of the debt is it is size as a fraction of
:23:23. > :23:31.national income. More important than the absolute level. As the -- even
:23:32. > :23:34.running a surplus of 10 billion or so a year, you don't get too
:23:35. > :23:40.prerecession levels of debt until the mid 2030s. The argument the
:23:41. > :23:51.Chancellor would make the running a surplus year after year is that even
:23:52. > :23:54.if you just run a balanced budget, it takes quite a lot of time just to
:23:55. > :23:59.undo the damage that the crisis did. Joining me now from Glasgow
:24:00. > :24:07.is the Shadow Work and Pensions Owen Smith, in his resignation
:24:08. > :24:16.letter, Iain Duncan Smith says it is now time to look at ending the
:24:17. > :24:20.protection of pensions. Do you agree with that? I don't think that should
:24:21. > :24:24.be the first thing they look at at all, Andrew. I think the very clear
:24:25. > :24:27.message that Iain Duncan Smith himself has delivered is their word
:24:28. > :24:31.choices that could have been made in the budget, and the Chancellor made
:24:32. > :24:36.them and he made the wrong ones coming chose to cut the benefits
:24:37. > :24:40.from disabled people. As we have heard, the PIP cuts taking many
:24:41. > :24:44.thousands of pounds away from the 370,000 people, and instead he chose
:24:45. > :24:51.that he was going to cut corporation tax, which he -- is going to benefit
:24:52. > :24:54.large countries in this country, and he chose to cut capital gains tax,
:24:55. > :24:57.which were largely benefit people who have got a bit of money. So I
:24:58. > :25:00.think there were different changes he could have made even within the
:25:01. > :25:10.terms of this budget that would have been much fairer. I understand that,
:25:11. > :25:18.but which are nevertheless have thinks it the benefits? -- ring
:25:19. > :25:21.fenced? We need to look at all these things long-term, but it would be
:25:22. > :25:26.for a Labour government when we get closer to the next election to the
:25:27. > :25:32.absolute specifics on all of those pension benefits, but by and large,
:25:33. > :25:35.let's be clear. The last Labour government worked incredibly hard to
:25:36. > :25:39.raise pensioners out of poverty. We were incredibly successful in that
:25:40. > :25:42.regard, a million pensioners lifted out of poverty under the last Labour
:25:43. > :25:45.government and I don't think they ought to be the target for cuts,
:25:46. > :25:49.just as I don't believe that disabled people ought to be. There
:25:50. > :25:53.are myriad other choices the government could have taken. Iain
:25:54. > :25:57.Duncan Smith today I think has been very honest in explaining how George
:25:58. > :26:00.Osborne could have taken different choices, should have done, and in
:26:01. > :26:14.his words he is dividing Britain, moving away from any notion of us
:26:15. > :26:18.all being in it together. But you are committed to balancing current
:26:19. > :26:22.spending, but if you have ring fenced pensions, as you have told us
:26:23. > :26:27.this morning, presumably you would ring fence the NHS, or even add to
:26:28. > :26:34.spending in the NHS, and you want to ring fence nearly all of welfare as
:26:35. > :26:40.well. Where do the cuts come from the balance current spending? I have
:26:41. > :26:44.just given you two, let's be very specific, Labour would be saying
:26:45. > :26:48.today if it were our budget, that we would not have done the cuts to
:26:49. > :26:52.corporation tax, that would have given us in year ?600 million, and
:26:53. > :26:58.we would not have done the cut to capital gains tax, that would give
:26:59. > :27:02.us another ?600 million. That nets off the PIP cuts annually, the ?1.2
:27:03. > :27:06.billion, and there are other similar choices we could look at. We would
:27:07. > :27:11.not have taken corporation tax back to 19%. We would have been taking
:27:12. > :27:15.far more from large multinational companies than this government is.
:27:16. > :27:20.So far you have given me 1.2 billion, but you have announced much
:27:21. > :27:23.more than that in spending plans. So I am not quite clear how it is you
:27:24. > :27:29.would balance current spending, because I think we can both agree an
:27:30. > :27:35.extra 1.2 billion went to do it, will it? No, but a corporation tax
:27:36. > :27:44.alone by 2020 would be giving us ?2.5 billion, if we were to revert
:27:45. > :27:48.back to the April 2015 rate of 20%. We would still have a corporation
:27:49. > :27:52.tax in this country that was 10% lower than Germany, 15% lower than
:27:53. > :27:59.America, 10% lower than Australia. It would be an extremely competitive
:28:00. > :28:01.rate of tax. I just highlight that ?1 billion example, ?3 billion
:28:02. > :28:07.example, how we would make different choices. Right, but as I say, in
:28:08. > :28:12.many of your spending plans you have already spent that sort of money.
:28:13. > :28:17.You also talk about fair taxes, you would not cut the corporation tax
:28:18. > :28:23.any further, what else to you mean by fair taxes? What would you raise
:28:24. > :28:29.by fair taxes? As I said a minute ago, we can't for years out from a
:28:30. > :28:32.budget before, a pre-election budget from Labour, tell you precisely what
:28:33. > :28:36.all of our spending plans will be, I don't think that is a reasonable
:28:37. > :28:40.thing to ask any opposition government to do but I think we are
:28:41. > :28:54.setting very clear indicators about what we think the benefits would be.
:28:55. > :28:57.Give us another example. It is reflective of our belief that those
:28:58. > :29:04.who have the largest amounts of money ought to bear the largest
:29:05. > :29:11.burden in our society. It is unclear whether that raises you very much.
:29:12. > :29:14.The government's own analysis showed there was ?3 billion forgone in
:29:15. > :29:19.cutting that top rate of tax. I now see they are trying to argue they
:29:20. > :29:25.have somehow applied a famous curve and ?8 billion they have made. I
:29:26. > :29:28.think corporation tax shows you very clearly, corporation tax receipts
:29:29. > :29:34.have been flat, they have managed to cut from 28% to 20% in the last six
:29:35. > :29:40.years, and the amount of receipts we are getting in has gone from 43
:29:41. > :29:46.billion to 43 billion. Investment has decreased.
:29:47. > :29:53.What are used to call sickness benefit comes to over 50 billion
:29:54. > :29:59.pounds a year. You would leave it untouched? No, we want to reform the
:30:00. > :30:02.system. Take for example, Iain Duncan Smith made a lot about
:30:03. > :30:08.universal credit this morning. He has said George Osborne has stripped
:30:09. > :30:13.out the guts of universal credit. I was asking about disability? Some
:30:14. > :30:19.people who are disabled will be in receipt of universal credit. What
:30:20. > :30:27.would you do about the disability 50 billion pounds annual budget? We
:30:28. > :30:30.wouldn't be making the changes the current government are proposing.
:30:31. > :30:40.They are lying to the British public about this, spending on the disabled
:30:41. > :30:44.is increasing. If you take all disability benefits, I am publishing
:30:45. > :30:48.figures today that say it has declined around 60% that the
:30:49. > :30:55.government have already cut disabled benefits. -- 6%. That will not be my
:30:56. > :31:00.target. Would you keep this increase in the threshold for people who
:31:01. > :31:05.enter the 40% tax bracket? Yes, we would keep that. It is fair to say
:31:06. > :31:11.the fiscal drag of people being pulled into the 40p rate has been
:31:12. > :31:15.increasing. I think we will need to reform taxation much more
:31:16. > :31:19.fundamentally. I still think the key thing today is we have got to
:31:20. > :31:24.understand George Osborne is the man in the dock. I am going to have to
:31:25. > :31:30.stop you there. We look forward to talking to you in the future about
:31:31. > :31:36.your plans for tax reform. Now let's go to the Conservative MP who has
:31:37. > :31:45.spearheaded the back bench opposition to George Osborne's tax
:31:46. > :31:50.cuts. Was a Iain Duncan Smith right to resign? He was coming he had
:31:51. > :31:55.reached a point where he had had enough of the purse strings being
:31:56. > :31:59.pulled so he couldn't deliver the welfare reform he wanted to. He had
:32:00. > :32:06.no option. Mr Cameron says he is puzzled by the resignation and the
:32:07. > :32:12.position of the government on these welfare reforms and cuts had been
:32:13. > :32:18.collectively agreed. I am learning, I am still a relatively new MP. You
:32:19. > :32:23.can keep your powder dry for so long, you are convinced by the whips
:32:24. > :32:28.that this is the right thing to do. Your conscience will kick in, it did
:32:29. > :32:32.for me last year over tax credits. The rumblings are more open this
:32:33. > :32:37.year than they were last year over tax credits. Iain Duncan Smith
:32:38. > :32:40.looked around him and saw many MP is saying how unhappy they were and he
:32:41. > :32:45.couldn't proceed any longer. Would you have been one of the rebels if
:32:46. > :32:50.the government had proceeded with what was in the budget for the
:32:51. > :32:55.disability payments? Absolutely, I would have been. Iain Duncan Smith,
:32:56. > :33:02.perhaps under Treasury pressure over the years has presided over a number
:33:03. > :33:06.of cuts to welfare. Now he is resigning over a cut that isn't
:33:07. > :33:14.going to happen, as far as we can make out. What is the logic in that?
:33:15. > :33:17.The first thing to say, I cannot say the certain it wouldn't have
:33:18. > :33:20.happened. I have had no letter or e-mail coming from the Treasury
:33:21. > :33:28.saying we will be looking at it again. A lot of what has been cut
:33:29. > :33:36.from Iain Duncan Smith's point of view, so the tax credit taper rate,
:33:37. > :33:40.universal taper rate, PIP, it has been coming thick and fast. He has
:33:41. > :33:45.had to deliver what it was revolutionary welfare reforms. He
:33:46. > :33:50.wanted to do them the right way. Everything I talked about in my
:33:51. > :33:56.maiden speech about doing it gently and allowing the minimum wage to
:33:57. > :33:58.rise. The Treasury whole the purse strings and they stopped him
:33:59. > :34:03.delivering the policies the way he wanted to. Given what happened to
:34:04. > :34:09.tax credits, which was a move to take away some welfare benefits from
:34:10. > :34:15.the working poor, is it not puzzling the Chancellor then moved in to an
:34:16. > :34:19.even more difficult group to deal with, in terms of taking things
:34:20. > :34:27.away, into the disabled and seem to have learned nothing from the tax
:34:28. > :34:34.credit U turn? I guess we will see in the days and weeks to come. It is
:34:35. > :34:39.not just PIP, you will remember the extra payment given to claimants who
:34:40. > :34:43.had been ill for a long time and were returning to work. I voted
:34:44. > :34:46.against that also. I hope Stephen Crabb, the new Secretary of State
:34:47. > :34:50.will have a conversation with the Treasury and this will be brought to
:34:51. > :34:54.the table. We have made some poor decisions. Some of the areas of
:34:55. > :34:59.taxation we have opted for instead, are wrong. It doesn't send the right
:35:00. > :35:03.message that as a Conservative Party we can look after everybody in
:35:04. > :35:06.society. It is only the Conservatives who can, because we do
:35:07. > :35:13.need the strong economy to deliver any of this. But it has got to come
:35:14. > :35:17.back to the table and we have got to start again. Is it your view it
:35:18. > :35:19.wouldn't be enough just to tinker with what the government was
:35:20. > :35:24.planning to do with the personal mobility independent payments and do
:35:25. > :35:32.what it did with tax credits, which was to scrap what it was planning to
:35:33. > :35:38.do and start again? I have spoken to a lot of disability charities. I am
:35:39. > :35:44.putting myself through and Mark PIP assessment because I want to feel
:35:45. > :35:50.what it is like. It just doesn't work that so many groups of ill and
:35:51. > :35:53.disabled people. Tinkering with two tiny point isn't good enough. We
:35:54. > :35:59.need to look at the whole process and start from scratch and work with
:36:00. > :36:03.these charities, who understand the pressures put on these people so we
:36:04. > :36:08.have a system that works for them. Your party is in open warfare this
:36:09. > :36:12.morning, you have a resignation and people are referring to you as the
:36:13. > :36:18.nasty party. How big a crisis is this for the Conservatives? I have
:36:19. > :36:26.been thinking about this this morning. I am trying to keep my own
:36:27. > :36:31.wooden spoon in my kitchen drawer. I think, in a funny sort of way,
:36:32. > :36:36.because there has been so much focus on the EU, this might lead the sense
:36:37. > :36:41.check we need. All MPs are good people trying to do the best they
:36:42. > :36:45.can. This could be the slap to the face we all need that says hang on,
:36:46. > :36:50.get back together and sort ourselves out. We are the party that should be
:36:51. > :36:55.looking after people. In fact, I think it could bring us together. If
:36:56. > :37:00.you are to be brought together for a fresh start from tax credit to
:37:01. > :37:04.disability payments, is George Osborne still the right Chancellor
:37:05. > :37:15.to do it? It depends how he responds to the challenge. I am hoping so.
:37:16. > :37:22.The jury is still out? Yes. Are his chances to be Prime Minister below
:37:23. > :37:27.the water line? Sometimes the strength of a man is how he picks
:37:28. > :37:32.himself up from a fall. So let's see how he responds. If this is
:37:33. > :37:36.attempted to be brushed under the carpet, I think his chances are
:37:37. > :37:40.over. If he lets himself up and shows he is listening, making
:37:41. > :37:44.mistakes is OK, providing you correct them before they affect
:37:45. > :37:48.people. He did that with tax credits. Some ways it was a big
:37:49. > :37:54.thing because it would have affected millions and millions of people. But
:37:55. > :37:59.we need to wait and see what he is going to do with this. Your wooden
:38:00. > :38:05.spoon is always welcome on this programme.
:38:06. > :38:18.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:19. > :38:26.Welcome to Sunday politics Wales. On today's programme. On a momentous
:38:27. > :38:31.weekend for Wales politics, Alun Cairns tells us how he's going to
:38:32. > :38:36.run the show, and as the living wage comes in, some businesses say will
:38:37. > :38:42.harm the Nick -- economy, not help it. But first, Wales has a new
:38:43. > :38:49.Secretary of State, Alun Cairns joins after Iain Duncan Smith's
:38:50. > :38:54.shock resignation. More on him later and a bit of trivia for you, Alun
:38:55. > :39:00.Cairns is the 19th person to have the job. Our political editor caught
:39:01. > :39:03.up with him on Barry Island and asked him what his priorities were.
:39:04. > :39:05.Well, Stephen Crabb, when I worked closely with him,
:39:06. > :39:08.our styles are very similar and he got the deal done in the City
:39:09. > :39:10.Deal where many people predicted that wouldn't happen.
:39:11. > :39:13.There is the same plan for North Wales, for the growth deal
:39:14. > :39:16.and the Swansea Bay City Deal, but it's about delivering on that.
:39:17. > :39:21.If we think back, the last major infrastructure project delivered
:39:22. > :39:25.in Wales was probably Cardiff Bay and the regeneration of those areas,
:39:26. > :39:29.now, I want the city deal to use be seen in that light and it's
:39:30. > :39:37.about striking those deals and getting that economic growth
:39:38. > :39:39.potential released around the Cardiff Deal that has already
:39:40. > :39:42.been announced, but it's the same for North Wales and the same
:39:43. > :39:44.for Swansea and other communities in Wales.
:39:45. > :39:46.Now, one thing presumably you won't be grateful
:39:47. > :39:51.to Stephen Crabb for is the mess that he's left you, which is the way
:39:52. > :40:00.How are you going to deal with the real concerns
:40:01. > :40:03.and criticisms of this Wales bills which including came from Welsh MPs.
:40:04. > :40:05.Well, I work very closely with Stephen Crabb whilst
:40:06. > :40:09.I was jointly working with him on it so I recognise challenges that
:40:10. > :40:16.are there, but I want to get a deal that works for Wales,
:40:17. > :40:24.that works for the communities in Wales, as well as for
:40:25. > :40:28.It's about getting the thing that seats
:40:29. > :40:33.businesses and the communities businesses across the whole of Wales
:40:34. > :40:36.absolutely determined to do everything I can to deliver
:40:37. > :40:40.Do you accept you got it wrong with the Wales Bill
:40:41. > :40:42.and the Wales Office team up until this point because you've got
:40:43. > :40:44.so much criticism from so many different people?
:40:45. > :40:47.Well, I think that Stephen Crabb and I need to be saying
:40:48. > :40:50.Anything constitutional is always hugely complex.
:40:51. > :40:52.A draft bill was there, laid bare, so people
:40:53. > :40:56.The direction of travel was outlined by Stephen Crabb and I'm
:40:57. > :40:59.going to continue following that track so that we can work
:41:00. > :41:01.on a Wales Bill that will work for Wales,
:41:02. > :41:03.for the UK and the Welsh Government jointly.
:41:04. > :41:05.It's about getting a deal that suits all concerned.
:41:06. > :41:08.I accept that this is more a question for your predecessor,
:41:09. > :41:10.Stephen Crabb, but you are going to have to
:41:11. > :41:12.defend very controversial changes to welfare which are going
:41:13. > :41:16.Iain Duncan Smith, the man who has just resigned,
:41:17. > :41:18.the architect of many of those changes,
:41:19. > :41:20.Well, welfare reform is an important agenda
:41:21. > :41:24.We need to move away from the situation where people
:41:25. > :41:27.Universal Credit has been transformational in giving people
:41:28. > :41:29.that opportunity to get back into work, and there
:41:30. > :41:31.are communities in society who are responding
:41:32. > :41:43.There's an increase in budget for welfare.
:41:44. > :41:48.It's moving from 15 billion to over 18 billion, but it's about better
:41:49. > :41:51.Now, Stephen Crabb's approach has been pragmatic as Secretary
:41:52. > :41:55.I'm sure he will be pragmatic as the Secretary of State for Work
:41:56. > :41:57.and Pensions, but obviously, as Secretary of State for Wales,
:41:58. > :42:00.I will be doing everything possible to insure that the particular
:42:01. > :42:04.Unlike your predecessor, you have the benefit,
:42:05. > :42:14.I suppose in terms of the relations with the assembly in the UK
:42:15. > :42:15.Government, of previously being an assembly member.
:42:16. > :42:17.How will you approach the relations between the two
:42:18. > :42:21.Well, having been an assembly member I can understand the culture that
:42:22. > :42:24.exists, but also the culture of the Welsh Government from having
:42:25. > :42:26.seen them working together and working within the assembly,
:42:27. > :42:28.and as it was originally established, as a corporate body,
:42:29. > :42:31.how they work together on committees and so on,
:42:32. > :42:33.so I hope that will give me an insight
:42:34. > :42:34.to work closely with the Welsh Government.
:42:35. > :42:37.I want to deliver for Wales, now, of course we can't
:42:38. > :42:49.deliver for Wales without the support of the Welsh Government,
:42:50. > :42:52.and I'd like to work equally closely with the First Minister.
:42:53. > :42:54.I know him particularly well and I'm hoping that we can
:42:55. > :42:57.build on that relationship for the benefit of Wales.
:42:58. > :42:59.There was a very strange relationship towards the end
:43:00. > :43:01.between Stephen Crabb and Carwyn Jones on the issue
:43:02. > :43:05.How do you get on with the First Minister?
:43:06. > :43:09.on with him very well on a personal level but of course politically
:43:10. > :43:24.we won't always see I too and challenges will remain,
:43:25. > :43:27.on with him very well on a personal level but of course politically we
:43:28. > :43:30.but it's only by working through these issues
:43:31. > :43:33.for the benefit of Wales will we all benefit and that will be
:43:34. > :43:36.good for the Welsh Government as well as the UK Government.
:43:37. > :43:38.More importantly, it would be good and better fork Welsh
:43:39. > :43:42.I suppose the question to you is, how
:43:43. > :43:45.hard are you prepared to fight for these infrastructures around
:43:46. > :43:47.the Cabinet table where they will be many people fighting for that
:43:48. > :43:50.for that shrinking pot of public money that is out there?
:43:51. > :43:53.Well, if you think back to win the last major
:43:54. > :43:54.infrastructure project took place in Wales,
:43:55. > :43:56.it was a Conservative Government the delivered that around
:43:57. > :43:59.We've announced major infrastructure investment earlier this week around
:44:00. > :44:02.We want similar projects across North Wales, Krause --
:44:03. > :44:07.It's in our blood that as Conservatives we want
:44:08. > :44:13.to deliver growth, we want progress, we want to empower people and that's
:44:14. > :44:15.where the UK Government agenda is going.
:44:16. > :44:18.We want a package that works for Wales and I and determined to do
:44:19. > :44:20.everything to work with the private sector, businesses but also
:44:21. > :44:22.with communities and the Welsh Government
:44:23. > :44:27.we will have more from Nick at the end of the programme. But first,
:44:28. > :44:30.what does 50p mean to you? Well, that's how much more the new living
:44:31. > :44:34.wage war pay every hour compared to the minimum wage. It's being brought
:44:35. > :44:38.in in less than a fortnight and unions are welcoming it, but some
:44:39. > :44:40.businesses say it could be difficult.
:44:41. > :44:44.Since the 50s, Parsons Pickles has been bottling local cockles
:44:45. > :44:47.and mussels to be sent all over the UK from its home
:44:48. > :44:58.At the moment, many of the workers here earned close to
:44:59. > :45:01.That's ?6 70 an hour for those over 21 years old.
:45:02. > :45:04.But next month, the staff here will get a pay rise under
:45:05. > :45:06.the new living wage when it is introduced.
:45:07. > :45:10.That will take the minimum wage to workers aged 25 and over to ?7 20
:45:11. > :45:13.an hour, 50p more than the current rate.
:45:14. > :45:17.I think it will be good because it will help towards the cost of living
:45:18. > :45:22.It's for my kids and everything in the future.
:45:23. > :45:24.It's all going in the right direction.
:45:25. > :45:28.How would you feel about the company, that it's putting
:45:29. > :45:31.a little bit of extra strain on the company.
:45:32. > :45:45.I do think 50p is not really that big a price hike.
:45:46. > :45:48.Though 50p may not sound much, this company's wage bill is set
:45:49. > :45:53.to rise by ?20,000 a year according to the managing director.
:45:54. > :45:57.It's not just the ?7 20 that it's going up to,
:45:58. > :46:12.obviously people who have sponsored ability and who are on that little
:46:13. > :46:14.obviously people who have responsibility and who are on that
:46:15. > :46:18.little bit more, or more again, we've got to put it up pro rata.
:46:19. > :46:21.Whilst Colin says the company can cope for now, he believes future
:46:22. > :46:23.increases to the living wage could force the company
:46:24. > :46:30.As you saw in production, before, there's a lot of people
:46:31. > :46:31.here where machines could take their place,
:46:32. > :46:34.but we just haven't done it because it's nice to have a team
:46:35. > :46:46.here and employ people, especially in a small village
:46:47. > :46:51.Colin does agree that salaries need to rise,
:46:52. > :46:59.but believes more should be done to help companies like he's coped
:47:00. > :47:02.but believes more should be done to help companies like his cope
:47:03. > :47:07.Its businesses like this where the work isn't particularly
:47:08. > :47:10.skilled that are likely to be most greatly affected by the introduction
:47:11. > :47:14.Hospitality and retail are other sectors that could well feel
:47:15. > :47:17.the strain as well, though a greater proportion of Hotel and shop workers
:47:18. > :47:26.are likely to be too young to qualify for that extra 50p.
:47:27. > :47:28.The British Retail Consortium recently claimed that nearly
:47:29. > :47:32.across the UK as a result of the pressures on businesses,
:47:33. > :47:36.It estimates 74,000 shops will close and Wales will be disproportionately
:47:37. > :47:38.affected compare to other parts of the UK.
:47:39. > :47:40.The national living wage and it's introduction in Wales
:47:41. > :47:43.is going to have a key impact, but it's worth outlining
:47:44. > :47:45.that the retail industry is broadly supportive in principle
:47:46. > :47:50.Our concerns lie in the fact that we believe the impact
:47:51. > :47:51.on employment will be seriously underestimated.
:47:52. > :47:54.Our own reports showing that we are seeing a potential lost
:47:55. > :47:57.of over 900,000 jobs over the next decade across the UK,
:47:58. > :48:01.but our remodelling has shown that that is most like dutiful in areas
:48:02. > :48:05.like Wales, leading to a possibly economically
:48:06. > :48:22.We are seeing accelerated rates of shop closures in Wales.
:48:23. > :48:24.We're seeing higher rates of footful decline.
:48:25. > :48:27.There are now calls for more support to be offered to Welsh businesses.
:48:28. > :48:30.I think it's critical that we need to take action now to prevent
:48:31. > :48:33.further loss of jobs and to also ensure that we have a supportive
:48:34. > :48:34.environment and one which encourages investment.
:48:35. > :48:38.So now is the time to see reform in areas such as business rates,
:48:39. > :48:40.something that the Welsh Government has power over to do is.
:48:41. > :48:44.something that the Welsh Government has power over to do.
:48:45. > :48:47.We will be encouraging the next Welsh Government to think very
:48:48. > :48:49.strongly about that radical reform via the business rates agenda.
:48:50. > :48:52.In the meantime, Parsons Pickles and similar businesses up and down
:48:53. > :48:53.the country face yet heavier burdens.
:48:54. > :48:56.The national minimum wage for those below 25 years old goes up
:48:57. > :48:59.in October, and the UK Government wants to see the hourly living wage
:49:00. > :49:12.Now, in response to that report, the Welsh Government says that it was
:49:13. > :49:17.supporting small businesses to reduce their rate bills, while the
:49:18. > :49:23.UK Government said it created the living wage so that low paid workers
:49:24. > :49:29.could share in economic growth. Now, this week we saw the report released
:49:30. > :49:35.by Lady Justice Macur, a report into abuse usage care homes in North
:49:36. > :49:42.Wales. Where does that leave us? Well, Sally Holland is the
:49:43. > :49:46.Commissioner for children in Wales. Thank you for coming in. He said
:49:47. > :49:52.that when you what the report you said you needed time to reflect on
:49:53. > :49:56.it. There was a long-awaited report. There was very little information
:49:57. > :50:02.about how it was progressing and when it would come out. It's finally
:50:03. > :50:06.come out this week and it doesn't really take us any further in our
:50:07. > :50:12.understanding in how we failed so many children over so many years, in
:50:13. > :50:19.North Wales. What will happen now? Does it need further work? Another
:50:20. > :50:23.commission? One immediate thing that would help would be some more
:50:24. > :50:27.information about the process of reduction in the report, because
:50:28. > :50:35.when you get into reading it, a lot of it is quite a difficult read,
:50:36. > :50:37.especially about the cover-up of established -- establishment
:50:38. > :50:43.figures. There are blanks all the way through that. It's a difficult
:50:44. > :50:46.read. It's probably a because of legal proceedings, but I think it
:50:47. > :50:53.would help people's confidence in the review if the UK Government acts
:50:54. > :50:56.blame -- explain their ration now regarding that. Some who have been
:50:57. > :51:01.abused have said they aren't happy with the finding of this report.
:51:02. > :51:05.What next for those people who have clearly suffered terribly as a
:51:06. > :51:10.result of what happened at those care homes. They don't feel they've
:51:11. > :51:16.got justice? I think any enquiry, what we have learnt now, it has to
:51:17. > :51:24.be more victim - centred. So far, with the Gothard enquiry, of all
:51:25. > :51:29.institutional abuse in England and Wales, that is doing that, so it's
:51:30. > :51:35.been advised by the committee of survivors of abuse, and the contrast
:51:36. > :51:48.between that and the Lady Justice Macur review is quite significant. I
:51:49. > :51:51.think an unredacted copy of that, it's a long process for these
:51:52. > :51:55.survivors who waited so long for answers, but I think it's a very
:51:56. > :52:00.different process with a debit -- very different feel. You, as a
:52:01. > :52:07.commissioner, your result of that Waterhouse enquiry into thousand,
:52:08. > :52:12.said they needed to be a children's Commissioner, do you think that the
:52:13. > :52:18.existence of your role means there will be less likely that these
:52:19. > :52:27.atrocities will happen again? I'm concerned about young children and
:52:28. > :52:37.-- who may be experienced -- experiencing abuse now, we try to
:52:38. > :52:42.provide helpful responses to abuse. We've moved a long way in the last
:52:43. > :52:45.few years. There is a national plan, I know it isn't always the same as
:52:46. > :52:52.action, but we are seeing a difference in how many children
:52:53. > :52:54.police are actively identifying as at risk of sexual exploitation, and
:52:55. > :52:59.they are bringing them into charities to help them work
:53:00. > :53:08.constructively. How have you found it in your role? Do you feel you
:53:09. > :53:14.have teeth when you make a report, published recommendations, they are
:53:15. > :53:20.not binding? Do you need a muscular role in what you say needs to
:53:21. > :53:26.happen? The legislation surrounding my role is quite complex, it
:53:27. > :53:34.concerns full devolution. It comes from the Waterhouse review. I look
:53:35. > :53:37.at complaints and advocacy for children, for example and
:53:38. > :53:41.whistle-blowing. However, I think I should have the same teeth for
:53:42. > :53:47.anything concerning the welfare of children. There is an election on
:53:48. > :53:52.the way. There will be a new Government on the way. What you want
:53:53. > :53:58.to see in terms of the focus on the next Government when it comes to
:53:59. > :54:02.children? I've spent my first year left -- listening hard to children.
:54:03. > :54:08.I've had really clear messages from that and that is that emotional
:54:09. > :54:12.health and well-being, mental health really needs a lot of work in the
:54:13. > :54:18.next Government and there are opportunities to do that. Is that
:54:19. > :54:24.money? Legislation? New policies? What do you think needs to be done?
:54:25. > :54:27.We've seen problems with our mental health services for children and
:54:28. > :54:35.young people. There is money going into that, some really positive
:54:36. > :54:38.plans, but we aren't yet seeing a difference for children. I will be
:54:39. > :54:43.keeping a close eye on mental health. It needs to be more lordly
:54:44. > :54:49.joined up with the curriculum plans that we have. The Donaldson review
:54:50. > :54:53.puts children's well-being at the centre of education and what should
:54:54. > :54:57.be provided for children. That's got to be planned when we look at how we
:54:58. > :55:03.support children in this very complex new world. With their
:55:04. > :55:08.emotions and mental health. What will happen in schools, with closer
:55:09. > :55:14.to home and the smacking and, do you think there needs to be a renewed
:55:15. > :55:19.focus in the next assembly? Yes. I stick up for children's writes and
:55:20. > :55:26.that's one of the best situations to deal with that. If you hit a child,
:55:27. > :55:32.you can see it was reasonable punishment. Can you imagine the
:55:33. > :55:38.horror we would feel it somebody had hit an elderly or disabled person,
:55:39. > :55:46.children deserve the same protection from physical banishment as adults
:55:47. > :55:49.have. It's been discussed so widely, the democratic process has sort of
:55:50. > :55:54.run its course there. What needs to change? I've had positive
:55:55. > :56:01.discussions with all four parties in the assembly. I think there's an
:56:02. > :56:05.appetite for change. Ireland change the law on this very successfully
:56:06. > :56:10.and quietly with no fuss in January. I think Wales can easily do it. I
:56:11. > :56:15.think we should be the first country in the UK to do it and I think the
:56:16. > :56:20.rest of the UK will follow suit. It's been a busy week for Stephen
:56:21. > :56:27.Crabb. He's been running the Wales Office but has now been employed by
:56:28. > :56:39.the UK Government to go to Westminster. Some people say he's
:56:40. > :56:43.one to watch. The PM thinks he might even have a future as a film star.
:56:44. > :56:47.David Cameron said Stephen Crabb could be the next James Bond,
:56:48. > :56:49.as he reminds him so much of Russell Crowe.
:56:50. > :56:52.He certainly been known as a man of action.
:56:53. > :56:54.Here he is, coasteering in his local constituency.
:56:55. > :56:56.He's also a keen marathon runner and member of
:56:57. > :57:02.But what perhaps makes a most interesting is his modest
:57:03. > :57:06.Born in Inverness, he and his two brothers were raised by their single
:57:07. > :57:09.mother in a council house, in Pembrokeshire.
:57:10. > :57:12.First elected in 2005, he now lives in Haverfordwest
:57:13. > :57:19.Many reacting to his appointment yesterday say he is a man to watch.
:57:20. > :57:23.Some people even said he could be a future leader and Prime Minister.
:57:24. > :57:26.But, for now, the would-be James Bond will be tackling
:57:27. > :57:32.If he can leave tetchy Tory backbenchers neither shaken nor
:57:33. > :57:35.stirred, maybe the number 10 would be a more important figure
:57:36. > :57:54.Stephen Crabb for number ten, who can say? But now joining us is our
:57:55. > :57:59.political editor. Hi, Nick. Looking at Stephen Crabb going from the
:58:00. > :58:06.Wales officer to -- office to work and pensions, that is a massive step
:58:07. > :58:10.up for exposure. He is entering the bear pit. Anyone who saw that
:58:11. > :58:15.blistering interview that Iain Duncan Smith did on the Andrew Marr
:58:16. > :58:19.show this morning, not only that, it seems that the department is at odds
:58:20. > :58:29.with each other. Some supporting Iain Duncan Smith, and other junior
:58:30. > :58:35.ministers, very critical of him. Is he ready? Certainly, he's been
:58:36. > :58:40.angling for a position, certainly that he talks about welfare reform.
:58:41. > :58:45.We talk about his back story. A single mother on benefits, council
:58:46. > :58:49.house. A good policy is a good policy, no matter where you come
:58:50. > :58:56.from and just because he's got that background doesn't mean he has a
:58:57. > :59:01.monopoly on welfare reform. He engages with the welfare reform in a
:59:02. > :59:08.kind of confident, unapologetic way that we don't see in other senior
:59:09. > :59:13.Conservative politicians, even those from other parties. And he is going
:59:14. > :59:17.to need all of that in the coming months, in this job, as he tries to
:59:18. > :59:25.bring people with him, while at the same time dealing with the cuts
:59:26. > :59:31.which George Osborne wants. So what about Alun Cairns? What will be the
:59:32. > :59:36.main challenges for him? We were on the freezing cold Barry Island. It
:59:37. > :59:42.was all about infrastructure concerning what he wanted to talk
:59:43. > :59:47.about. Many people see the role of the Wales Office has depleted in
:59:48. > :59:52.region -- recent years. He says it's become more important because of the
:59:53. > :59:58.way George Osborne described -- distributes money across this
:59:59. > :00:03.country, such as Sheffield, Leeds. You've got the added Government the
:00:04. > :00:12.assembly, of course, so he's got to negotiate that. Then you've got the
:00:13. > :00:22.Wales Bill. Being Stephen Crabb's number two will help, and he also
:00:23. > :00:28.helped him with more recent issues. Alun Cairns does have an opportunity
:00:29. > :00:34.to rearrange things. He does have an insight being an assembly member for
:00:35. > :00:43.11 years. Will that hemp -- help or hinder? Allen has this hinterland
:00:44. > :00:49.experience of politics. We have seen previous assembly members become MPs
:00:50. > :00:54.become hypercritical of the assembly. They have strong opinions
:00:55. > :00:59.about how it is run. It will be interesting to see which way he
:01:00. > :01:02.goes, and see whether he becomes very opinionated about the way
:01:03. > :01:05.devolution works. That's all we've got time for. You can follow us on
:01:06. > :01:09.Twitter. That's all from me. extra cash. -- onto the consumers
:01:10. > :01:11.will stop My thanks to Diane Abbott
:01:12. > :01:26.and to Justine Greening. can David Cameron bring his
:01:27. > :01:30.government back together after Iain Duncan Smith's resignation? What
:01:31. > :01:34.happens to George Osborne's budget plans and what will the impact of
:01:35. > :01:37.all this be on the EU referendum campaign?
:01:38. > :01:51.So where does it go from here? I would suggest it gets worse for the
:01:52. > :01:54.Tories long before it gets better. Yes, I think one thing David Cameron
:01:55. > :01:58.and George Osborne might want to think carefully about is how they
:01:59. > :02:01.manage Iain Duncan Smith, and the pretty hostile briefing against him
:02:02. > :02:10.is only going to increase his ire. They should not forget that he has
:02:11. > :02:14.quite an important weapon, the private conversation with primers
:02:15. > :02:17.to's office in recent weeks, which show that the Prime Minister wanted
:02:18. > :02:23.to much, much further than Iain Duncan Smith was willing to go. When
:02:24. > :02:26.they say these were your ideas, why is it a problem, Iain Duncan Smith's
:02:27. > :02:30.argument is yes, these were my ideas, but they were part of a
:02:31. > :02:34.long-term sustainable plan. They were not about giving you, George
:02:35. > :02:38.Osborne, money to cut taxes for the wealthy, which is what he did in
:02:39. > :02:41.capital gains tax. So I think they probably need to handle Iain Duncan
:02:42. > :02:42.Smith with care because he could be dangerous for them if he really is
:02:43. > :02:51.on the loose. Is clear It already for every person
:02:52. > :02:57.in Downing Street is briefing to have a go at Iain Duncan Smith,
:02:58. > :03:03.there is someone ready to have a go at Mr Cameron and the government? I
:03:04. > :03:06.cannot remember a time since David Cameron became leader of the
:03:07. > :03:11.Conservative Party that discipline has broken down as it has in the
:03:12. > :03:17.last 48 hours. It is hard to see how he brings discipline back in before
:03:18. > :03:21.the referendum. His powers of patronage is limited, he doesn't
:03:22. > :03:28.want a big reshuffle before the referendum, he wants to wait. There
:03:29. > :03:42.is a feeling of open season. Is he on his way out? It is not in
:03:43. > :03:48.Brexit's interest to whip this up. People will worry what a big leap it
:03:49. > :03:52.is into the unknown if we leave. If they think we are voting for a total
:03:53. > :03:57.change of government and Prime Minister, it puts the stakes of even
:03:58. > :04:01.higher. We might see believe campaign's dumping this down a
:04:02. > :04:08.little bit. The Chancellor, now among the walking wounded, has a
:04:09. > :04:14.budget to get to the House of Commons which deals through money
:04:15. > :04:17.matters. He needs a vote to cut the capital gains tax, cut corporation
:04:18. > :04:24.tax, raise the threshold for the 40% taxpayers. There is a danger with
:04:25. > :04:27.rebellion in the air and the Tory back benches rebel against one
:04:28. > :04:33.thing, as they do on disability, they could rebel on other things? I
:04:34. > :04:38.think he has two problems, the immediate is the legislated
:04:39. > :04:41.challenge of getting the CGT cut and the threshold raised and everything
:04:42. > :04:47.else through Parliament in the coming weeks and months. Then he has
:04:48. > :04:49.to find the money he has just lost by reversing on the disability
:04:50. > :04:56.benefit cut. He has already lost money from reversing the tax credit
:04:57. > :05:02.policy. Which is why he broke his welfare cap. Exactly. Even if he
:05:03. > :05:05.gets through this immediate challenge of getting the budget
:05:06. > :05:09.through Parliament, his central purpose as a politician is to close
:05:10. > :05:14.the deficit. He has made it harder for himself by reversing on some of
:05:15. > :05:19.these contentious measures. It's not as if the problem ends in a few
:05:20. > :05:24.weeks' time. Isn't it made worse by the fact this is taking place in the
:05:25. > :05:29.midst of the EU referendum campaign, which had already divided
:05:30. > :05:35.conservatives. It like pouring petrol on the flames? It is hard to
:05:36. > :05:39.see anything other than another four months of mayhem. We don't know what
:05:40. > :05:45.the results of the referendum will be. Probably a good deal of mayhem
:05:46. > :05:50.after that. It is interesting how quiet Boris Johnson has been. I
:05:51. > :05:56.understand he is away skiing, but we haven't heard from friends of his.
:05:57. > :06:01.Maybe the lines are bad to the Alps. It shows you how serious his team
:06:02. > :06:10.are, they are being smart and will not wade in. This has been a good
:06:11. > :06:14.weekend for Brexit, because their most high profile member of the
:06:15. > :06:18.Cabinet has resigned and appears to be a bit bullied, possibly by George
:06:19. > :06:22.Osborne. He speaks from the heart of this because he had this visit to
:06:23. > :06:28.Glasgow and got onto this issue. In that sense it is a good weekend the
:06:29. > :06:32.Brexit. But the problem for them, you need to be talking about the
:06:33. > :06:37.vision for the future of Britain. This is quite Westminster, inside.
:06:38. > :06:41.Brexit need to counter the main argument that they are the biggest
:06:42. > :06:46.risk. While there may be sympathy for Iain Duncan Smith, it is not
:06:47. > :06:50.getting on their argument. The two leading spokesman for the remain
:06:51. > :06:53.campaign on the conservative side the Prime Minister and the
:06:54. > :06:59.Chancellor. The Minister has a civil war on his hands and has to be
:07:00. > :07:03.careful he doesn't make it worse by some of the briefing Downing Street
:07:04. > :07:08.is behind. The second most important man is among the walking wounded.
:07:09. > :07:17.Why will people listen to him over the referendum. That is why it has
:07:18. > :07:21.been a good weekend for the Brexit. But the most political force in this
:07:22. > :07:25.country will make a big picture decision based on the big picture
:07:26. > :07:28.arguments of what is the safest option and what is the riskiest
:07:29. > :07:31.option. I am not sure this great excitement and eruptions in the
:07:32. > :07:37.Westminster village, I am not sure whether they massively register with
:07:38. > :07:40.the British people if they make a big decision are big issues. There
:07:41. > :07:47.is concern over the Conservative Party and their brands. They work so
:07:48. > :07:51.hard to detoxify themselves in the run-up to the last elections. It
:07:52. > :07:55.wasn't convincing, they were in coalition and now they have the
:07:56. > :08:03.smallest of majorities. Now it looks like they are the nasty party. At a
:08:04. > :08:07.time when the home strategy was to move to the centre ground? It hasn't
:08:08. > :08:11.worked. If I were a conservative strategist, I would concerned about
:08:12. > :08:16.the catastrophic damage to the party's brand. The Prime Minister
:08:17. > :08:21.keeps on making speeches, normally on Monday about the poor, about
:08:22. > :08:27.racial discrimination, about equality. All designed to position
:08:28. > :08:30.the Tories in the centre, even the centre-left ground, because they
:08:31. > :08:36.think Labour has left that. But they can come up with the tax credit
:08:37. > :08:41.fiasco and the disability fiasco. Who is running the show? It is hard
:08:42. > :08:46.to close the deficit once you have ring fence the NHS and everything
:08:47. > :08:51.else. But they make it difficult and provocative when they juxstapose a
:08:52. > :08:57.cut in tax credits, with raising the threshold of in terrorist --
:08:58. > :09:04.inheritance tax last year. Capital gains tax this year. They have had
:09:05. > :09:08.to do it because it was in the manifesto, but it didn't have to be
:09:09. > :09:12.in the manifesto and it is that juxtaposition rather than the cost
:09:13. > :09:18.of welfare that appeared to be so incendiary. You say it has been a
:09:19. > :09:21.good weekend the Brexit, and the domestic back drop will exacerbate
:09:22. > :09:27.tensions between the remain and leave. But there is an international
:09:28. > :09:33.guy mentioned to this. The EU in Turkey have come to an agreement, I
:09:34. > :09:39.think it starts tonight. And here is a guess, I'd bet it starts to
:09:40. > :09:43.unravel within 24 hours? It is the sort of thing that looks good on
:09:44. > :09:47.paper. Refugees who come over arson back to Turkey and Syrian refugees
:09:48. > :09:52.are sent to Europe. Looks great on paper. These are people who have
:09:53. > :09:57.risked their lives, seen people drowned in the Aegean Sea. Lost
:09:58. > :10:03.family members. They make it to Greece and you are going to say to
:10:04. > :10:09.them, get back. And they say, fine, I will do that. It will be difficult
:10:10. > :10:14.to do. UN agencies are saying they are not sure if it is legal. You
:10:15. > :10:18.cannot treat a group of migrants as a group under the Geneva Convention,
:10:19. > :10:25.they have to be treated as individuals. But this treats them as
:10:26. > :10:30.a group. If you see more unpleasant scenes out of Greece, more of a
:10:31. > :10:39.sense the European Union just hasn't tackled this problem, that all adds
:10:40. > :10:43.to the leave campaign? Yes, it is a real source of alarm. The debate
:10:44. > :10:49.about Turkey and the possible prospect of Turkey, in the
:10:50. > :10:53.long-term, becoming part of the EU, is extremely toxic. The outer
:10:54. > :11:00.campaign will be seeking to exploit every inch of that debate. It has
:11:01. > :11:06.been a horrible week for the remain campaign, politically and
:11:07. > :11:09.strategically. Ultimately, the decision by swing voters, people by
:11:10. > :11:16.definition have no principled view on the subject, will be based on big
:11:17. > :11:22.picture variables and factors. Would you rather have the Prime Minister,
:11:23. > :11:28.still a credible, by all accounts a reasonably popular Prime Minister,
:11:29. > :11:34.on your side? You would. It is a big asset than Iain Duncan Smith, Boris
:11:35. > :11:36.Johnson Michael Gove. One of the big elements of the bigger picture is
:11:37. > :11:43.the prospect of Turkey becoming a member of the European Union. I am
:11:44. > :11:47.not sure I will be alive at the time Turkey joins the European Union.
:11:48. > :11:53.That means the EU is basically lying to Turkey? The implicit thing about
:11:54. > :11:57.the deal they have had is you make progress towards membership. I am
:11:58. > :12:02.making progress towards becoming a millionaire, it is not going to
:12:03. > :12:07.happen. I was looking to you for alone! I was in Luxembourg ten years
:12:08. > :12:13.ago when those accession negotiations began. The Foreign
:12:14. > :12:17.Minister of Turkey was made to wait in Ankara. He eventually flew
:12:18. > :12:21.through the night when Europe eventually said yes, we will start
:12:22. > :12:26.it. There has to be a referendum in France to allow them to join. The
:12:27. > :12:31.French will not vote in favour of Turkey joining. I agree it is not
:12:32. > :12:37.going to happen but it is a sleight of hand to imply to the Turks to get
:12:38. > :12:40.them to deal with the migrant crisis. They use it to get the money
:12:41. > :12:44.and sneak through various things. All Brexit has to do is create the
:12:45. > :12:51.impression that it might happen sooner or later and bingo, you will
:12:52. > :12:56.scare a lot of people. More worrying is how strategically depend on the
:12:57. > :12:58.West is on Turkey. The Turkish government, is nothing like the
:12:59. > :13:05.Turkish government than it was years ago. Which is why we are having to
:13:06. > :13:08.shut up about domestic Turkish affairs because we are so reliant on
:13:09. > :13:12.them. They are only closing newspapers. And locking people up.
:13:13. > :13:26.We will leave it there. We won't be back next week, it is
:13:27. > :13:29.Easter, but remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.
:13:30. > :13:36.Unless of course, it is Easter.