:00:38. > :00:44.David Cameron thinks we'll be stronger, safer
:00:45. > :00:49.Leave campaigners say the real risk would be a vote to remain.
:00:50. > :00:53.So what are the dangers if we decide to stay?
:00:54. > :00:57.On his final presidential visit to the UK, Barack Obama
:00:58. > :01:00.will back the idea of Britain remaining in the EU.
:01:01. > :01:04.But is the leader of the free world right to wade into our debate?
:01:05. > :01:07.And before the referendum, there's the small matter
:01:08. > :01:13.of national and local elections right across the UK.
:01:14. > :01:19.Later in the programme, the parties roll out their plans for Wales after
:01:20. > :01:22.the election. We will be reading In London, with less than three
:01:23. > :01:25.weeks to go to polling day, we hear from mayoral hopefuls
:01:26. > :01:27.Sian Berry of the Greens And with me, as always,
:01:28. > :01:35.our panel of the best and brightest political brains in the business,
:01:36. > :01:37.Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott Now, the referendum isn't the only
:01:38. > :01:49.vote looming on the horizon. Before the EU vote on June 23rd,
:01:50. > :01:52.voters across the UK will get a chance to cast their ballot
:01:53. > :01:54.in a range of elections There are seven sets
:01:55. > :01:59.of elections happening in May, all of which will take place
:02:00. > :02:01.on the same day, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
:02:02. > :02:06.will hold national elections. There are 60 seats up for grabs
:02:07. > :02:09.in the Welsh Assembly. The Scottish Parliament,
:02:10. > :02:13.in which the SNP has held a majority since 2011,
:02:14. > :02:18.will elect 129 members, and in Northern Ireland,
:02:19. > :02:20.there are 108 seats that will be decided for representatives
:02:21. > :02:24.to the assembly at Stormont. Across England there
:02:25. > :02:27.are local government elections. 124 councils have
:02:28. > :02:31.seats up for election. 35 metropolitan councils,
:02:32. > :02:33.19 unitary authorities and 70 district councils,
:02:34. > :02:36.and four cities in England will elect mayors, London, Bristol,
:02:37. > :03:00.Liverpool and Salford. Londoners will also elect members
:03:01. > :03:02.to the London Assembly Finally, voters in 41 police force
:03:03. > :03:06.areas in England and Wales will elect a Police And Crime
:03:07. > :03:07.Commissioner. Joining me now from Glasgow
:03:08. > :03:09.is our election guru, Professor John Curtice
:03:10. > :03:13.of Strathclyde University. Let's start with the local elections
:03:14. > :03:18.in England. How should we judge the performance of Jeremy Corbyn's
:03:19. > :03:24.Labour Party in these elections? We have to appreciate that the seats up
:03:25. > :03:29.for grabs on me the these elections were for the most part fought for
:03:30. > :03:34.three year is ago. We are looking at the time of George Osborne's
:03:35. > :03:39.so-called a shambles budget when support for the Conservatives fell
:03:40. > :03:42.away. These were the only set of elections during the last parliament
:03:43. > :03:45.where the Labour Party began to put in a performance where you might
:03:46. > :03:50.have thought they would have been capable of winning the next
:03:51. > :03:54.election. Jeremy Corbyn's misfortune, he is defending not a
:03:55. > :04:00.brilliant baseline, but a relatively good one. Labour six or seven points
:04:01. > :04:06.ahead, as judged by their share of the vote. The truth is that Jeremy
:04:07. > :04:10.Corbyn is not 67 points ahead. In contrast to what we might have
:04:11. > :04:15.expected a few weeks ago, he is no longer 67 points behind. Labour and
:04:16. > :04:19.the Conservatives seem to be quite close to each other. That means that
:04:20. > :04:26.in practice Mr Corbyn may well be facing losses. The figure of 150 has
:04:27. > :04:31.been bandied around. Will that be good? Better than it might have been
:04:32. > :04:36.a few weeks ago. Is it the sort of performance to persuade you that the
:04:37. > :04:41.Labour Party is on course to win the general election? Certainly not. Is
:04:42. > :04:46.the biggest threat that they would lose London, and would that be
:04:47. > :04:51.unlikely? I agree it would be unlikely. If they were to fail to
:04:52. > :04:58.win the London mayoral election, that would be a serious reverse for
:04:59. > :05:02.Labour. Back in 2012, although Boris Johnson on the London mayoral
:05:03. > :05:08.election, Labour was clearly ahead in the parallel election. Neither
:05:09. > :05:14.Sadiq Khan, the Labour candidate, Northside Goldsmith, the concerted
:05:15. > :05:18.of the -- the Conservative candidate, has the same kind of
:05:19. > :05:25.attractiveness to the public. Labour did relatively well in London 12
:05:26. > :05:34.months ago. If David Cameron were not to win that election, Labour
:05:35. > :05:38.would have questions to ask itself. Could Labour even come third behind
:05:39. > :05:42.the Scottish Tories? The answer is that they could. There is another
:05:43. > :05:47.opinion poll lead this morning that put Labour on the Conservatives neck
:05:48. > :05:52.and neck with each other. Some opinion polls put Labour and the
:05:53. > :05:57.Conservatives together, but not by much. Labour neglect the heading for
:05:58. > :06:03.a very bad performance. It would be the worst result in any election
:06:04. > :06:06.since 1918. I do not think it will tell you much about Jeremy Corbyn
:06:07. > :06:09.and his popularity. We have to remember that what happens in
:06:10. > :06:13.Scotland is very distinct and separate from what happens in the
:06:14. > :06:18.rest of the UK. The election in Scotland is going to be, primarily,
:06:19. > :06:24.framed by people's views about independence. The truth is the
:06:25. > :06:28.overall majority of people that voted for independence are still
:06:29. > :06:31.determined to vote for the SNP. So long as that remains the case,
:06:32. > :06:36.Labour will struggle another the border. It has to do with Scottish
:06:37. > :06:41.politics and little to do with what is happening in the rest of the UK.
:06:42. > :06:46.Is there really a Ukip surge in Wales? The opinion polls suggest
:06:47. > :06:50.that Ukip are doing well in Wales. But that is roughly where the
:06:51. > :06:56.opinion polls are putting Ukip across the UK as a whole. In Wales,
:06:57. > :07:00.as in Scotland, and the London assembly elections, the elections
:07:01. > :07:07.are being held by proportional representation, not first past the
:07:08. > :07:10.post, so if Ukip can get the 15% that the opinion polls suggest that
:07:11. > :07:13.the might get, they will get significant representation in the
:07:14. > :07:16.Welsh assembly. Getting Ukip grade is one of the things in which the
:07:17. > :07:22.opinion polls tend to disagree with each other. Ukip will perhaps not do
:07:23. > :07:28.as well as that, they will get some seats, but perhaps not as well as
:07:29. > :07:32.the parties hoping. Northern Ireland, and the executive almost
:07:33. > :07:37.collapsed there last year. Will the turmoil at Stormont, is it likely
:07:38. > :07:45.expected to change people's voting patterns this time? We not expecting
:07:46. > :07:49.a vast in Northern Ireland. Not only is the assembly elected
:07:50. > :07:57.proportionally, but so is the elected -- the executive. The larger
:07:58. > :08:01.of the two Unionist parties and the Nationalist parties might not be
:08:02. > :08:05.quite as strong as last time. No one is expecting very much in way of a
:08:06. > :08:10.major change. Thank you for joining us. Nick Watt, let me come to you.
:08:11. > :08:15.These elections are widely being seen as Mr Corbyn's first serious
:08:16. > :08:20.test. What a Labour's real expectations? The expectation is
:08:21. > :08:26.there going to do badly in Scotland. That is in. They will do badly in
:08:27. > :08:30.Wales but the expecting that. They will not admit that they could do
:08:31. > :08:33.very badly in the English local elections, and that they could lose
:08:34. > :08:38.seats. If the Labour Party lost seats in the local elections, it
:08:39. > :08:43.would be the first time since 1985 that an opposition party had
:08:44. > :08:48.suffered losses in local elections in a non-general election year. It
:08:49. > :08:52.would be woolly bad. What did is down two at the end of the day, I
:08:53. > :08:56.know we should not wish think about London, a great picture of Glasgow
:08:57. > :09:02.behind John Curtice, but it is down to London. Jeremy Corbyn needs one
:09:03. > :09:08.victory and he looks like he will get one, Sadiq Khan in London. That
:09:09. > :09:13.will probably enough. He can do badly everywhere else but as long as
:09:14. > :09:17.he holds onto London years save? I think because the others are just
:09:18. > :09:21.priced in. If he can be seen to notch up one victory, it is a bit
:09:22. > :09:27.like the old and Royston by-election at the end of last year. Everyone
:09:28. > :09:31.assumes that they will do badly. They did well, it stabilises the
:09:32. > :09:35.leadership. He would probably be safe even if you lost London? I
:09:36. > :09:40.think he would be. Those who would like to see the back of have the
:09:41. > :09:44.difficulty that essentially his supporters control the party
:09:45. > :09:49.membership. It is an interesting question, how this is going to be
:09:50. > :09:52.judged. I spoke to one of Jeremy Corbyn's critics within the
:09:53. > :09:57.parliamentary party this morning and was surprised how upbeat he sounded.
:09:58. > :10:02.He said, I think we might put on a couple of hundred seats. This is a
:10:03. > :10:07.terrible time for the Tory leadership. I came off the phone and
:10:08. > :10:10.thought, this is about expectation management. This is the critics of
:10:11. > :10:17.Jeremy Corbyn saying that we should put on a few hundred seats. When
:10:18. > :10:20.they do not, they will see it as a disaster. The setting him up to
:10:21. > :10:26.fail. The Tories are expected to do quite well in these elections, even
:10:27. > :10:31.in Wales. We have had the budget, the Panama Papers, the steel crisis,
:10:32. > :10:37.the split over the referendum. It has got to take its toll on the
:10:38. > :10:43.Tories? It has in the opinion polls, which are Sean at the minimum of the
:10:44. > :10:46.Tory lead, narrowing, and in some cases Labour pulling ahead. I
:10:47. > :10:52.suspect some Tories would not mind doing badly in the local elections
:10:53. > :10:56.in England if it relieves the pressure on Jeremy Corbyn, who they
:10:57. > :11:03.want in place over the next four years and contesting the 2020
:11:04. > :11:06.general election. Even if Labour do badly in Scotland, Jeremy Corbyn
:11:07. > :11:11.owes a debt to Sadiq Khan, because his likely but not certain victory
:11:12. > :11:15.in London, judging by the opinion polls, will attract more attention
:11:16. > :11:20.than elections everywhere, not before it deserves -- not because it
:11:21. > :11:26.deserves to, but because the media has a slight skew towards London. It
:11:27. > :11:29.is a slightly sexier office. It will drown out any underperformance that
:11:30. > :11:34.Labour have in the rest of the country. Is it too cynical to say
:11:35. > :11:38.that some Tories will not be too upset if they do not win London
:11:39. > :11:42.because Mr Corbyn will then be secure? I do not think that is
:11:43. > :11:51.cynical. That is absolutely the case. Janan is right. There will be
:11:52. > :11:55.lots of post-analysis about how the billionaire's son, Zac Goldsmith,
:11:56. > :11:58.lost the election. It is interesting that the people who want to get rid
:11:59. > :12:02.of Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour Party, the window they are talking
:12:03. > :12:07.about is not after the local elections, but after the referendum
:12:08. > :12:10.at the end of June. We might be focused on the Conservatives by
:12:11. > :12:17.then. I think the troubles of the Tory party will take the focus then.
:12:18. > :12:18.So the referendum campaign has begun.
:12:19. > :12:21.The official campaign groups have been designated and the arguments
:12:22. > :12:26.The Prime Minister says we'll be stronger, safer, and better off in.
:12:27. > :12:28.And a vote to leave, says to Mr Cameron,
:12:29. > :12:34.But it won't have escaped your attention that the EU
:12:35. > :12:36.is also facing challenges, a migration crisis, economic
:12:37. > :12:42.So, if we do decide to remain, what are the risks ahead of us?
:12:43. > :12:53.For some, the consequences of this EU referendum are crystal clear.
:12:54. > :12:56.For the rest of us, it is difficult to see the future
:12:57. > :12:58.after June the 23rd, hard to predict.
:12:59. > :13:03.Of course, the politicians claim to know our fortunes.
:13:04. > :13:06.This cannot be described as anything other than risk, uncertainty,
:13:07. > :13:16.We have clearly elevated Brexit as one of the serious downside risks
:13:17. > :13:22.I firmly believe that leaving the EU would leave our country less secure.
:13:23. > :13:25.This lot, Vote Leave, call it Project Fear.
:13:26. > :13:28.They say the other side is trying to scare people into thinking that
:13:29. > :13:33.Instead they say that the uncertainty is staying in.
:13:34. > :13:40.What will the EU look like in five, ten, 15 years?
:13:41. > :13:43.For me, it would be an outdated bloc, something that was created
:13:44. > :13:46.in the last century, something that can neither control
:13:47. > :13:53.It has been foretold that migration will be one of the dominant
:13:54. > :14:01.David Cameron insists his negotiated emergency brake on migrants' in work
:14:02. > :14:03.benefits as well as changes to child benefits will discourage EU
:14:04. > :14:09.migration, but some experts say it will have little impact.
:14:10. > :14:13.Figures from the Migration Observatory this week suggest that
:14:14. > :14:18.continuing economic instability in the Eurozone is encouraging
:14:19. > :14:21.an increasing number of southern European migrants to head to the UK
:14:22. > :14:24.Looking forward, it is very difficult to know
:14:25. > :14:30.It is possible that if the gap in economic performance
:14:31. > :14:32.between the UK and other countries, for example,
:14:33. > :14:36.Italy, Portugal and Spain, remains significant,
:14:37. > :14:39.there could be quite a pull factor for some time.
:14:40. > :14:41.It is also possible if there is more economic convergence
:14:42. > :14:43.that we could see the numbers start to fall.
:14:44. > :14:48.Much has also been made this week about the risk to both the British
:14:49. > :14:51.and the global economy if Britain voted to leave the EU,
:14:52. > :14:55.In the single market we trade freely right across Europe
:14:56. > :14:58.and we have a say in making the rules across the Continent.
:14:59. > :15:01.If we leave, we give all of that up with no idea
:15:02. > :15:07.The real economic risks are for staying in the European Union.
:15:08. > :15:12.We might find ourselves on the hook for bailouts for countries that
:15:13. > :15:15.are having difficulty staying in the euro in the future.
:15:16. > :15:19.We might find that our rebate comes under assault in the future,
:15:20. > :15:22.we might find that the amount of money overall that we have
:15:23. > :15:26.to give the European Union goes up and up and up.
:15:27. > :15:30.A few weeks ago, the Governor of the Bank of England said that
:15:31. > :15:32.leaving the EU was the biggest domestic risk to
:15:33. > :15:37.Membership of the European Union brings risks as well,
:15:38. > :15:39.and the principal risk, risks I should say,
:15:40. > :15:41.because there are more than one, are associated with the unfinished
:15:42. > :15:53.On the issue of whether our laws are made in Westminster or Brussels,
:15:54. > :15:56.for those wanting to leave the EU, a vote to remain would mean handing
:15:57. > :16:00.Fewer and fewer things over which we have the authority
:16:01. > :16:04.Fewer and fewer of our decisions can be upheld in British courts
:16:05. > :16:14.And I also know that fewer and fewer decisions will be made
:16:15. > :16:17.on European Union level which will be in British interests.
:16:18. > :16:20.And yet one former minister told me that pooling some decision-making
:16:21. > :16:27.The truth is that if you enter into any international agreement,
:16:28. > :16:29.then you may agree that those decisions should be
:16:30. > :16:32.Our Nato membership involves exactly the same kind of arrangement.
:16:33. > :16:35.We allow Nato to take a decision for our collective strength.
:16:36. > :16:49.Both sides seemed to agree a vote to remain is not a vote
:16:50. > :16:54.Those who want to stay in are confident, at least publicly,
:16:55. > :16:57.that the renegotiation will change for the better our relationship
:16:58. > :17:01.Those who want out say that relationship will only get worse.
:17:02. > :17:03.Quite how persuasive those two visions are,
:17:04. > :17:14.I predict we will find out on June the 24th.
:17:15. > :17:17.Joining me now is Labour MP Tristram Hunt, he was a member
:17:18. > :17:19.of the Shadow Cabinet under Ed Miliband.
:17:20. > :17:26.He is now campaigning for Britain to remain in the EU.
:17:27. > :17:32.Do you accept, let's look at some of the risks that could be associated
:17:33. > :17:36.with remaining, start with immigration. Do you accept that as
:17:37. > :17:40.long as we remain in the EU we have no real control of the numbers
:17:41. > :17:44.coming to our country? The European Union is not perfect and it is quite
:17:45. > :17:49.right to have this debate about how we reform Europe in the future. When
:17:50. > :17:54.it comes to our borders, we check who comes in. There will remain
:17:55. > :17:59.passport controls but we have to make sure that we explain to people
:18:00. > :18:03.that if we left Europe but still wanted to trade with the single
:18:04. > :18:07.market, we would also have to have the free movement of people just as
:18:08. > :18:11.Norway and Switzerland does. But in the long run I think there is an
:18:12. > :18:15.interesting question about the degree of free movement of people
:18:16. > :18:19.across the European Union. My point is that Britain should be a part of
:18:20. > :18:23.that conversation. We should be involved in that reform and change
:18:24. > :18:28.and if we are not at the table than our voice won't be heard. The
:18:29. > :18:32.numbers would seem to be beyond our control because that's the price of
:18:33. > :18:38.membership. Over the past five years the number of EU nationals living in
:18:39. > :18:40.the UK has risen by 700,000, it is now 3.3 million, it has doubled in
:18:41. > :19:00.ten years. As long as we remain in the EU it is surely a risk that at
:19:01. > :19:03.least another 700,000 could come in the next five years, it could be
:19:04. > :19:06.even more. Or it could be markedly less. If we go back to a time when
:19:07. > :19:09.the British economy was worse in the 1980s, we saw large numbers of
:19:10. > :19:11.people going abroad to work in the European Union. We are taking a
:19:12. > :19:14.snapshot at the moment and the point about pooling risk across the single
:19:15. > :19:16.market is that when your economy is in difficulty you can take
:19:17. > :19:20.opportunities in other parts of the country. In the UK we should be
:19:21. > :19:25.supporting reforms to make sure there are not benefit attractions to
:19:26. > :19:29.coming to the UK so I think the Prime Minister's point about having
:19:30. > :19:32.to pay in before you take out, the point about fairness is really
:19:33. > :19:37.important and I think people in Britain think that if people are
:19:38. > :19:42.coming here to work, to pay their taxes and contribute to society,
:19:43. > :19:46.that is fine. You say it's a snapshot but let's look at this
:19:47. > :19:51.chart. Over the last five years, as you can see from that, from about
:19:52. > :19:57.2012, under five years in fact, these are the absolute number,
:19:58. > :20:06.immigration from the EU has risen dramatically. My point is it is not
:20:07. > :20:11.a snapshot, it is a clear trend. The part of immigration over which we
:20:12. > :20:18.have no control is rising the fastest, isn't that a risk? But we
:20:19. > :20:23.go back to 1975 so historically this is a snapshot, and overtime this
:20:24. > :20:28.well change. We cannot have a system whereby you turn up in the UK and
:20:29. > :20:33.claim benefits from day one. You have to have a contributory
:20:34. > :20:38.principle. Also, those parts of the country, Boston in Lincolnshire,
:20:39. > :20:42.parts that have experienced high levels of immigration and we should
:20:43. > :20:46.be open and honest about this that we have seen statistics show big
:20:47. > :20:51.changes and may have impacted communities in big ways sometimes,
:20:52. > :20:55.they need the extra resource for schools and hospitals that this
:20:56. > :21:01.brings in. The case I'm putting to you this morning is that that is not
:21:02. > :21:05.necessarily a snapshot or that it will necessarily change. Let's look
:21:06. > :21:09.at the risks we would face in the years to come. Angela Merkel, the
:21:10. > :21:13.German Chancellor, decided that last year over a million Syrian
:21:14. > :21:18.immigrants could go to Germany. Eventually they could come here if
:21:19. > :21:24.they wish. Why should we be at the risk of unilateral decisions taken
:21:25. > :21:29.by a foreign leader? Obviously there are issues about residency rights in
:21:30. > :21:34.Germany or Italy before anyone could come to the UK. We retain border
:21:35. > :21:39.controls. If they become German citizens they will be allowed to
:21:40. > :21:46.come here. This is a balance of risks, on June the 23rd of voters
:21:47. > :21:50.have to weigh up these may bes. What we have heard clearly from the
:21:51. > :21:54.governor of the Bank of England, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the
:21:55. > :22:00.head of the IMF, that there will be a seismic economic shock to the
:22:01. > :22:03.British economy. I understand that and there has been plenty of
:22:04. > :22:08.coverage of the risks of coming out, but I'm looking at the risks of
:22:09. > :22:15.staying in. Let me give you another one, I've given you the Angela
:22:16. > :22:20.Merkel example. Albania, Turkey and others all want to join the EU. More
:22:21. > :22:26.people that could have a right to come and live and work in the UK.
:22:27. > :22:30.That is a risk. We are already seeing the risk of Brexit. The pound
:22:31. > :22:34.is falling in value, economic decisions are not being taken at the
:22:35. > :22:40.moment. I'm not arguing that there are risks to coming out, I perfectly
:22:41. > :22:46.understand that. I'm looking at the risks if we stay in. Address this
:22:47. > :22:51.issue that the risk is of another 87 more people with the right to come
:22:52. > :23:01.to Britain. My point is the risks are happening now,... What is your
:23:02. > :23:06.answer to the 87 million? The extension of Europe has to be
:23:07. > :23:09.managed carefully. The broader conversation about the total free
:23:10. > :23:13.movement of people across the European Union is something that
:23:14. > :23:19.needs to be addressed but firstly we won't have any say over that if we
:23:20. > :23:23.have left the European Union. Secondly, those countries which
:23:24. > :23:27.trade with Europe like Norway and Switzerland also have to accept the
:23:28. > :23:32.free movement of people. There's no free ticket on this. What I want is
:23:33. > :23:36.a strong Great Britain at the negotiating table making the case
:23:37. > :23:40.for our borders and security. When it comes to the free movement of
:23:41. > :23:45.people you raised the issue of Syrian refugees and concerns about
:23:46. > :23:51.security in the aftermath of Brussels and Paris, being part of
:23:52. > :23:55.Europe and having security connections with Europe makes us
:23:56. > :23:59.stronger. There's talk of another Greek financial bailout, fears of an
:24:00. > :24:03.Italian banking crisis looming this summer. If the eurozone plunges into
:24:04. > :24:07.another recession, the numbers coming here could easily hit new
:24:08. > :24:16.record highs. We have also seen we are not part of the Europe... They
:24:17. > :24:22.will come here looking for jobs. We are not on the hook for the Greek
:24:23. > :24:27.bailout. We were with the last one. Not to the same degree as other
:24:28. > :24:32.European members. We negotiated a strong exemption from that. This is
:24:33. > :24:39.about Britain having a strong voice at the negotiating table and you are
:24:40. > :24:43.offering up your own Project Fear. I am taking a methodical look at the
:24:44. > :24:51.risks. The eurozone is stagnating at the moment, that's why Spaniards,
:24:52. > :25:00.Italian and Portuguese are pouring into this country in huge numbers.
:25:01. > :25:05.If the eurozone was to tilt into another recession, that risks a lot
:25:06. > :25:09.more. It is a risk, and the British answer to that should be to deepen
:25:10. > :25:17.the single market, to make it more effective, to have growth across
:25:18. > :25:23.Europe. You do, if you have a strong British voice arguing for growth
:25:24. > :25:30.across Europe. You're talking about these potential threats in the
:25:31. > :25:34.future, we have a threat now. Businesses in my constituency,
:25:35. > :25:37.Stoke-on-Trent, are not making investment decisions. Indecision,
:25:38. > :25:43.two years of negotiation if we leave. Hold on... Two years of
:25:44. > :25:51.indecision if we vote to leave. Why are they eyeing the British stock
:25:52. > :25:54.exchange if there is indecision? There will always be levels of flow
:25:55. > :25:59.and investment but what we are seeing is fear and concern about the
:26:00. > :26:02.future. I think of workers in Staffordshire who go to work at the
:26:03. > :26:09.Toyota plant in Derby, they have jobs because of being part of the
:26:10. > :26:18.single market. I'm talking about the risks if we remain. Do you deny that
:26:19. > :26:22.if we stay in we face further integration? We have had a clear
:26:23. > :26:27.commitment from the Prime Minister that we won't be involved in ever
:26:28. > :26:31.closer union and that is a big philosophical moment, that Britain
:26:32. > :26:36.has a distinct and different stance to the rest of the European Union. I
:26:37. > :26:43.think people will benefit from the best of both worlds. If that is the
:26:44. > :26:46.case, you will be familiar with D5 president report, the official road
:26:47. > :26:51.map for greater integration into the European Union. It calls for
:26:52. > :26:59.financial, fiscal and political union by 2025. That could affect us.
:27:00. > :27:04.We have a clear commitment we will not be involved in ever closer
:27:05. > :27:09.union. Have you read this report? Not all of it. It is not a long
:27:10. > :27:15.report. It says much of what I have just named, not all, but much of
:27:16. > :27:22.that could be achieved already through a deepening of the single
:27:23. > :27:27.market, which is important for all 28 EU members, so we would not
:27:28. > :27:33.necessarily be excluded. I am in favour of a deep into single market
:27:34. > :27:37.so that those 200,000 businesses in the UK, exporting to Europe, have
:27:38. > :27:44.greater growth and opportunities. People become richer. So there could
:27:45. > :27:49.be deeper integration. I would like to see the digital and service
:27:50. > :27:54.economy grated more, we want more jobs and growth across Europe that
:27:55. > :28:00.Britain will benefit from. Why would we, when we face a global fear about
:28:01. > :28:06.downturn, decide to cut ourselves off from the richest market in the
:28:07. > :28:12.world. You say it is the richest, it is also stagnating. Because we
:28:13. > :28:15.cannot do our own trade deals with the part of the world that is
:28:16. > :28:21.growing, our trade is therefore hindered. It has taken seven years
:28:22. > :28:25.to reach a deal with Canada, it is not complete, the free trade deal
:28:26. > :28:31.with Australia has been blocked by Italy. These are all growth markets,
:28:32. > :28:36.unlike Europe, and we are unable to do free trade deals with them. That
:28:37. > :28:41.is a risk. Do you honestly think that if we left Europe and there
:28:42. > :28:47.were negotiations with India about a free trade deal, the UK, 60 million
:28:48. > :28:53.people, would be ahead of the queue of the European Union... Nothing is
:28:54. > :28:59.happening with India for nine years. We had historic links with India.
:29:00. > :29:03.What about Australia and Canada? We are not owed a living in the world.
:29:04. > :29:08.We have to make our businesses grow on their own terms and you do that
:29:09. > :29:13.by being part of the European Union. You have a much greater weight
:29:14. > :29:17.around the world by being part of this. My point is that we have the
:29:18. > :29:24.best of both worlds. We have the historic connections with the
:29:25. > :29:27.Commonwealth, with America. But why does the American trade
:29:28. > :29:33.representative say to us you would be crazy to leave Europe. Why do our
:29:34. > :29:38.allies around the world say you should be part of Europe? You say we
:29:39. > :29:43.won't be part of any further political integration, you say we
:29:44. > :29:47.won't join the euro, we won't be part of Schengen, and yet it is
:29:48. > :29:51.clear Europe will become at least within the eurozone more and more
:29:52. > :29:55.integrated. We will have less influence on that, we will
:29:56. > :30:01.essentially become a semi detached country club. What is the point? The
:30:02. > :30:05.point is a growing market for British businesses of 500 million
:30:06. > :30:09.people, and yes, this is the point about the best of both worlds, we
:30:10. > :30:15.don't want ever closer political union. We want access to the single
:30:16. > :30:17.market. The best of both worlds, safer, stronger and better off in
:30:18. > :30:20.Europe. Now, this week President Obama
:30:21. > :30:22.will make his valedictory He'll even have lunch with the Queen
:30:23. > :30:26.to celebrate her ninetieth birthday, presumably after she's
:30:27. > :30:31.watched the Daily Politics. But it's another aspect
:30:32. > :30:36.of Mr Obama's visit While he's here, the leader
:30:37. > :30:39.of the free world is expected to endorse the idea of the UK
:30:40. > :30:42.remaining in the Those campaigning
:30:43. > :30:45.to leave the EU are, surprise, surprise,
:30:46. > :30:48.Here's what Boris Johnson had to say yesterday.
:30:49. > :30:51.I just find it absolutely bizarre that we are being lectured
:30:52. > :30:53.by the Americans about giving up our sovereignty,
:30:54. > :30:58.The United States, for their own reasons, their own history,
:30:59. > :31:04.traditions, based on the ideas of no taxation without representation,
:31:05. > :31:06.a fervent belief in the inviolability of American democracy,
:31:07. > :31:08.they would not dream of sharing sovereignty.
:31:09. > :31:15.Is he in danger of making America look like a hypocrite?
:31:16. > :31:19.Not in danger of it, I am afraid there is an intrinsic hypocrisy.
:31:20. > :31:25.I do not know what he's going to say, but if that is
:31:26. > :31:31.the American argument, of course it is nakedly hypocritical.
:31:32. > :31:34.To discuss this I'm joined by James Rubin.
:31:35. > :31:40.He was a spokesman in the US State Department during Bill
:31:41. > :31:43.And Liam Fox, former Defence Secretary, and a leading
:31:44. > :31:45.light in the campaign to leave the EU.
:31:46. > :31:52.Why should the leader of her closest allies, with whom we have a special
:31:53. > :31:56.relationship, on your regard as crucial to this country, not say
:31:57. > :32:01.what he thinks is in our national interest? He is entitled to say what
:32:02. > :32:06.he thinks is an America's national interest, but whether it is in the
:32:07. > :32:09.interests of Britain is a different question. Of course the president is
:32:10. > :32:15.entitled to say what he thinks, but we have to add a couple of caveats.
:32:16. > :32:19.That is his view. There are other views in America, Senator Rubio for
:32:20. > :32:22.example expressing a different view, he has expressed what he thinks
:32:23. > :32:30.about the special relationship if Britain were to leave the European
:32:31. > :32:32.Union. Tell me one previous American administration, Democratic or
:32:33. > :32:38.Republican, that thought we should not be in the EU, or did not care if
:32:39. > :32:43.we left? It is not a question of what the express, it is that they
:32:44. > :32:48.should respect what Britain does. They all want us to stay? There were
:32:49. > :32:52.strong elements of the last Republican administration, strong
:32:53. > :32:56.Republican leaders at present, who do not think... I do not remember
:32:57. > :33:01.the second President Bush saying that Britain should leave the EU.
:33:02. > :33:06.The debate is now, about our future, our relationship with the rest of
:33:07. > :33:10.the world. It is fair to say, though I might not use the same
:33:11. > :33:14.terminology, it is unthinkable that the United States would allow a
:33:15. > :33:19.court to overrule the Supreme Court or someone else to determine their
:33:20. > :33:23.external borders, in a way that the European Union does for the United
:33:24. > :33:29.Kingdom. Boris Johnson has made that point. President Obama, supporting
:33:30. > :33:32.things for Britain, things that no European -- that no American
:33:33. > :33:38.president would contemplate. Maybe we would be more inclined to listen
:33:39. > :33:41.to the president if he favoured an open border with Mexico, and if
:33:42. > :33:47.Congress was no longer the ultimate decider of federal law? Let me see a
:33:48. > :33:50.couple of things. I am glad that my colleague agrees that the president
:33:51. > :33:54.is attacked -- entitled to express his view of what is in the
:33:55. > :34:02.President's interest. -- America's interest. America and the EU
:34:03. > :34:06.together, they are the most powerful force for free markets and democracy
:34:07. > :34:11.around the world. If Britain leads the European Union, we will be
:34:12. > :34:13.weaker. We will might be able to pursue the great values that our
:34:14. > :34:18.countries have pushed around the world. Written working with the
:34:19. > :34:24.United States and the EU is able to do that. We have a joke in America,
:34:25. > :34:27.but it is a serious matter. Friends do not let friends drive drunk. This
:34:28. > :34:32.is not in our interest, or the interests of the world. What about
:34:33. > :34:36.our interest? You will make that judgment. Is the president simply
:34:37. > :34:42.going to say it is in the interests of America? I think he will avoid
:34:43. > :34:47.telling Britain what is in Britain's interest. About the point on
:34:48. > :34:51.hypocrisy, I know Boris Johnson likes to read biographies of the
:34:52. > :34:57.past. Maybe he is living in the past when he thinks that America is a
:34:58. > :35:02.very large country, a superpower, it has the world's largest military. It
:35:03. > :35:08.does not have to do only what you choose is compared to the British.
:35:09. > :35:10.Britain is a different country, not the superpower any more. Just
:35:11. > :35:15.because we will not do something does not mean that the British
:35:16. > :35:18.ignored. If the US president was coming here to support Leave, you
:35:19. > :35:23.would be shouting it from the rooftops? I do not think we will
:35:24. > :35:28.find out if that is true or not. There is an element of hypocrisy. We
:35:29. > :35:34.need to get the balance. We need to stick to the issues. We recognise
:35:35. > :35:38.the president is alleged to have his view, but it is not the only
:35:39. > :35:42.American view of what is in America's interests. We have to
:35:43. > :35:46.recognise it is a British debate ultimately. We will make our
:35:47. > :35:49.decision. As to this point about pushing our values, Britain had the
:35:50. > :35:54.same values before we joined the European Union in 1973. The fact we
:35:55. > :36:00.will be changing our philosophical approach because we are part of the
:36:01. > :36:04.group in union is not true. I mean that the EU is a very powerful
:36:05. > :36:08.instrument in our world. The United States has great military power, but
:36:09. > :36:13.there are other powers we need to achieve order and stability, and
:36:14. > :36:18.promote free markets. We need the ability to promote sanctions and
:36:19. > :36:23.provide aid. We need the ability to promote democracy. The EU is good at
:36:24. > :36:27.that working with the United States. We are better able to do that when
:36:28. > :36:33.our closest ally is within the EU. Let him come back on that. We think
:36:34. > :36:37.that the European Union is failing and that the structural failures of
:36:38. > :36:41.the European Union are not good for the West. We are seeing the
:36:42. > :36:45.re-emergence of nationalist tensions across Europe. We are seeing fence
:36:46. > :36:51.building. That is not the fault of the EU. It is a failure of the EU.
:36:52. > :36:55.We are seeing a whole generation of young Europeans unemployed as a
:36:56. > :36:59.result of the single currency. It is creating tensions. You did not have
:37:00. > :37:04.a problem with foreigners weighing in during the Scottish referendum.
:37:05. > :37:10.You told the Scandinavian countries, if your analysis is that Scottish
:37:11. > :37:13.independence is a threat to your security, why are you not standing
:37:14. > :37:17.up and saying it? President Obama probably thinks it is a threat to
:37:18. > :37:23.allow security, so why should they not see that? I thought it was a
:37:24. > :37:28.risk to the security of Britain in the Scottish referendum if we left
:37:29. > :37:32.Natal. If Britain pulls out of the EU, the Scottish will pull out of
:37:33. > :37:36.Britain and there will be a hold-mac in Natal. I do not believe that to
:37:37. > :37:42.be true. When were you last in Scotland? I was recently there and I
:37:43. > :37:48.sat with the Scottish party leader. They have been clear that if the EU
:37:49. > :37:52.does not include Britain, the Scottish want to lead. Interest is
:37:53. > :37:57.one thing, having an opinion about what the SNP will do is different.
:37:58. > :38:01.THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE What about Senator Cruise, he is
:38:02. > :38:04.fighting for the Republican nomination with Donald Trump. He
:38:05. > :38:10.said that Mr Obama's comments will make it more likely that England, he
:38:11. > :38:14.means Britain, that England will pull out of the EU? I do not think
:38:15. > :38:19.it will have a massive impact either way in terms of the British result.
:38:20. > :38:23.I think it is important for us to recognise that this is a decision
:38:24. > :38:27.for the United Kingdom. I do not agree with this assessment that the
:38:28. > :38:31.European Union in its current model is good for the United States. It is
:38:32. > :38:38.unstable. Now you're giving an opinion for us. You just asked me
:38:39. > :38:42.not to do that. The United States and Britain working together have
:38:43. > :38:46.made the world a better place for democracy, for a free market. We are
:38:47. > :38:52.only able to do that successfully when our closest ally is part of the
:38:53. > :38:55.EU. American foreign policy will be weaker, Western foreign policy will
:38:56. > :39:00.be weaker if the British leave the EU. We look forward to the
:39:01. > :39:02.President's visit, whatever he has to say. Thank you.
:39:03. > :39:04.It's just gone 11:35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:05. > :39:07.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:08. > :39:26.Hello, welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales. They may look glossy
:39:27. > :39:30.but you should never judge a book by its cover. The party manifestos have
:39:31. > :39:34.been coming out they can't fast, as we move closer to made a fifth. Over
:39:35. > :39:38.the next two weeks, we will look closely at the promises each of the
:39:39. > :39:42.main parties are making. Labour and the Tories bring out their plans
:39:43. > :39:45.next week. As it stands, Plaid Cymru have been joined by the Lib Dems and
:39:46. > :39:51.UK having pitted together their ideas and getting them out there.
:39:52. > :39:59.More from them in a moment. First we are discussing Clive Comrie's
:40:00. > :40:06.promises in the manifesto. Your changes to tuition fee plans. At the
:40:07. > :40:09.moment, a Welsh student -- a Welsh students can go anywhere and pay no
:40:10. > :40:16.more than ?3500. You are changing that. Will you pay the entirety of
:40:17. > :40:18.their tuition after Mark is a difficult decision.
:40:19. > :40:23.In an ideal world, we would probably want to be able to divide -- provide
:40:24. > :40:27.free education but that isn't possible. We know our higher
:40:28. > :40:32.education institutions are suffering badly. The current system means we
:40:33. > :40:37.are hugely subsidising higher education institutions. They would
:40:38. > :40:41.be able to take out loans to make their tuition fees wherever they
:40:42. > :40:45.went. If they come back and work in Wales for five years, we will repay
:40:46. > :40:49.those loans up to the sum of ?18,000. We think that's fair for
:40:50. > :40:54.individuals but also better for Wales. How many graduates are doing
:40:55. > :41:01.that at the moment? Figures vary but it is roughly 70,000 earlier, off
:41:02. > :41:06.the top of my head. It was not my strong point. We believe we can save
:41:07. > :41:10.by doing what we are doing, to ?50 million per year, which could go
:41:11. > :41:14.back into the higher education budget. If you don't know how many
:41:15. > :41:19.graduates would be coming back, taking advantage of this new system,
:41:20. > :41:24.how can you know how much it would save? We cannot predict exactly.
:41:25. > :41:28.What we have done is put 10% on those students who we know are
:41:29. > :41:32.coming back this year, to give us a bit of space. They will be working
:41:33. > :41:36.in the Welsh economy, making a contribution and growing the wealth
:41:37. > :41:39.of Wales. Was about those students who graduate and find an initial job
:41:40. > :41:43.on a trainee scheme, somewhere in England which takes more than five
:41:44. > :41:47.years but want to come back. It was in them at a disadvantage. It is
:41:48. > :41:53.tough but we are offering to every person under 25 in Wales who can't
:41:54. > :41:56.find, or hasn't yet found a full-time job, we will guarantee to
:41:57. > :42:01.find a job for that person and help them get access. It's not an easy
:42:02. > :42:04.decision of these budgets are always about priorities. We feel that money
:42:05. > :42:09.should be invested in education in Wales and growing the economy.
:42:10. > :42:16.Looking at budgets, there is a whole raft of savings here from Plaid
:42:17. > :42:22.Cymru. What happens to the party of anti-austerities? When George
:42:23. > :42:27.Osborne proposed savings, is shouted cups. We are talking about genuine
:42:28. > :42:31.savings, being able to make ?1 million worth of savings. That's the
:42:32. > :42:38.kind of savings you would get on a budget our size. Just by looking at
:42:39. > :42:42.doing things differently, we would bring business people in to help us
:42:43. > :42:45.do that. A further ?300 million worth of savings, mostly efficiency
:42:46. > :42:54.savings, over the whole of the budget. Looking at things like
:42:55. > :43:03.buying more effective -- more effectively in bulk. We wouldn't be
:43:04. > :43:09.spending the money on the motorway which the government are puzzling.
:43:10. > :43:14.10% savings within the NHS, that's a huge amount. It is a huge amount,
:43:15. > :43:16.but at the moment we have seven local health boards and a lot of
:43:17. > :43:29.complex and expensive administration. Let's be clear about
:43:30. > :43:34.this, this isn't saying it can't be done. We know that it can be done.
:43:35. > :43:38.The greatest uncertainty was concerning the efficiency savings.
:43:39. > :43:43.It's possible but not going to be easy or painless. What happens the
:43:44. > :43:47.party of austerity? This is about taking the money that we got on
:43:48. > :43:51.spending more effectively. We need to do a zero budget approach, to
:43:52. > :43:55.look and say, instead of doing what you usually do with a budget, look
:43:56. > :43:59.at what we spent last year and how much we need to spend this year, we
:44:00. > :44:02.look at the whole budget and said, where can we say something? It isn't
:44:03. > :44:08.easy but we have a certain amount of money. If we carry on as we are, our
:44:09. > :44:12.NHS is going down the pan and we are achieving what we want education. We
:44:13. > :44:16.have to make difficult decisions so we can reinvest, to reinvigorate our
:44:17. > :44:20.economy, to create a world-class education system and transform
:44:21. > :44:23.health care. Will patients be happy that you are making these huge
:44:24. > :44:30.savings to the NHS, while giving a pay increase to teachers watermarked
:44:31. > :44:34.that is about driving up the quality of the education our children get,
:44:35. > :44:38.which is just not good enough. It's based on models that have been
:44:39. > :44:41.effective elsewhere. Those cuts won't affect patients. We are
:44:42. > :44:44.talking about efficiency cuts and investing some of that money we save
:44:45. > :44:50.in 1000 extra doctors over five years. Patients will be better off.
:44:51. > :44:57.I want to go back to this teacher premium payment. An extra 10% in
:44:58. > :45:01.their salary if they go on a course. How does that make them better
:45:02. > :45:08.teachers? It just gives them more money. A Masters of education isn't
:45:09. > :45:12.just some course. People aren't always incentivised to be able to do
:45:13. > :45:16.it. They had always given time off to do it and we would do that. There
:45:17. > :45:20.would be a cost which we think would be about ?40 million per year. Even
:45:21. > :45:24.the state of our education system and the way it is failing our young
:45:25. > :45:28.people, that is a good investment. Education is all about people. To
:45:29. > :45:33.have the best people, you need to train them and paid for them.
:45:34. > :45:37.When it comes to the NHS and reorganisation, one of the big plans
:45:38. > :45:41.you have berries to get rid of decision-making on hospitals and
:45:42. > :45:49.have it centralised to Cardiff. Can you see how people locally will say
:45:50. > :45:53.that's not a local decision? We are proposing a thing -- single NHS for
:45:54. > :46:00.wealth but would set high priorities. We don't think people in
:46:01. > :46:05.Wales should wait more than 28 days from finding out they are at risk of
:46:06. > :46:07.cancer to getting a diagnosis. We set a high priority and it's
:46:08. > :46:11.different because we then have another level of management in the
:46:12. > :46:15.middle, which is the health board. We would have doctors and nurses
:46:16. > :46:18.managing our hospitals as they used to do. These are your high-level
:46:19. > :46:24.national priorities and you work out how you deliver them.
:46:25. > :46:29.One last one, on councils being in charge of GPs services. Is this the
:46:30. > :46:32.right time to get this extra work to the councils? It in the context of
:46:33. > :46:37.our proposals to bring councils together into regional bodies. It
:46:38. > :46:43.will be a lap -- that level. What we certainly cannot do is carry on with
:46:44. > :46:46.the way things are. The Liberal Democrats launch their
:46:47. > :46:53.manifesto this week. I will be joined by Peter Black. I keep coming
:46:54. > :46:59.in. And carry on with education. One of your big pitches for the election
:47:00. > :47:06.is smaller class sizes for infant classes, no more than 25. What's the
:47:07. > :47:09.rationale behind that? If you get children young enough and educate
:47:10. > :47:13.them and give them the right attention, they will do better in
:47:14. > :47:20.life. There's lots of educational evidence to back that up. There are
:47:21. > :47:24.three -- this research and the foundation is based on region --
:47:25. > :47:28.research which says if you give children at a young age, get them
:47:29. > :47:32.involved in education, they will go on in life and perform better in the
:47:33. > :47:38.education system. Our proposal is that every child should not be in a
:47:39. > :47:42.class of more than 25. It's a long-term thing and won't happen
:47:43. > :47:50.overnight. We believe it is crucial. So that teachers have the time to
:47:51. > :47:55.teach properly. The research is from the OECD. They said that many
:47:56. > :48:00.countries invested additional resources to reduce classroom sizes
:48:01. > :48:06.but performance has improved in only a few. They say at teachers is what
:48:07. > :48:11.we need. Why make the class sizes the priority? And better leadership
:48:12. > :48:14.in our classrooms is important as well, but they are talking about
:48:15. > :48:18.across the whole educational spectrum. We're talking about
:48:19. > :48:22.concentrating on infant class sizes were the infants, as they come to
:48:23. > :48:25.school, need to be getting to the education system properly, getting
:48:26. > :48:30.the attention they need, getting their reading and spelling and
:48:31. > :48:33.arithmetic right. At that stage, learning those basics, they will go
:48:34. > :48:38.on to do better in the education system at the evidence does back
:48:39. > :48:43.that up. Moving to tuition fees, you would be reintroducing tuition for
:48:44. > :48:47.students from Wales, paying the full feeds wherever they go. But he would
:48:48. > :48:54.be offering student living support at ?2500 per year. Students in Wales
:48:55. > :48:59.benefit from over ?5,000 per year at the moment. They would be a lot
:49:00. > :49:03.worse off. Is that fair? Students benefit in the sense that the
:49:04. > :49:06.tuition fees they are going to have to repay once they reach a certain
:49:07. > :49:10.income level will be the same as those in England. Most of those
:49:11. > :49:17.students will end up not repaying the loan anyway. The real problem
:49:18. > :49:22.will be for many students that they will have dad from living costs. If
:49:23. > :49:25.we increase the amount of money available for students at
:49:26. > :49:29.university, having them that extra support for the living costs, much
:49:30. > :49:35.about student debt will be reduced. You don't repay the tuition fees
:49:36. > :49:39.until you are ?21,000 per year. It doesn't count against your mortgage
:49:40. > :49:43.or anything else. At the end of the time, the vast majority will end up
:49:44. > :49:54.not repaying it. Why not get it higher? ?5,000 is what we currently
:49:55. > :49:58.contribute. Why not more? This figure is open for discussion. This
:49:59. > :50:03.is on top of the assembly support grant which they already get. We are
:50:04. > :50:08.saying that the extra money which is available needs to be reallocated
:50:09. > :50:11.back into higher education. The universities have been starved for
:50:12. > :50:15.cash in recent years and are unable to offer the courses and conditions
:50:16. > :50:18.which students expect of them. It is a balance between investing in
:50:19. > :50:23.students, giving them that supports adults were investing in
:50:24. > :50:26.universities. Urals and talking about building 20,000 new affordable
:50:27. > :50:33.homes. What you class as an affordable home? In this context,
:50:34. > :50:36.anything which has a state subsidy. There is a whole range of different
:50:37. > :50:39.types of affordable home, whether it's delivered directly by a local
:50:40. > :50:45.council, housing association, planning. A builder to build a
:50:46. > :50:49.certain number of properties at a reduced rate. Those of the
:50:50. > :50:52.affordable homes we are talking about. We believe we need that
:50:53. > :51:03.investment. House-building drives the economy. You will also be able
:51:04. > :51:09.to stimulate the economy right from that investment. There will be local
:51:10. > :51:14.opposition, all sorts of hurdles in your way in what you want to do and
:51:15. > :51:17.what you will be able to do. I think I see thousands will be guaranteed
:51:18. > :51:22.by making sure we have the capital money there to deliver. It's always
:51:23. > :51:27.difficult but there is a huge amount of Brownfield land out there which
:51:28. > :51:29.needs to be developed. In Swansea, we are developing large part of
:51:30. > :51:35.Swansea City centre into affordable homes. That can be done all-round
:51:36. > :51:39.wealth. You can develop these houses and you have got the space to do it.
:51:40. > :51:43.If you can that the investment upfront, you will get that
:51:44. > :51:45.affordable housing. You say you want to see an extra 140,000
:51:46. > :51:59.apprenticeships over the next five years. Why did you arrive at that
:52:00. > :52:02.number? 140,000 is roughly double what is currently being delivered
:52:03. > :52:06.over five years. We believe investment in young people,
:52:07. > :52:10.investment in all people, giving them the skills they need to get
:52:11. > :52:15.jobs, the opportunities to get a job, and a job which is meaningful,
:52:16. > :52:20.not just a training programme. Actually giving people proper
:52:21. > :52:24.training. That is actually crucial to get the economy started again.
:52:25. > :52:30.The figure we decided on, we need to double that figure and I think
:52:31. > :52:33.that's achievable. It reflects the needs that Wales has for the skills
:52:34. > :52:38.we need the future. Like it very much for being my first
:52:39. > :52:41.guests this morning. We have a lot to get through so let's just take a
:52:42. > :52:46.look at how the assembly campaign has been going this week. There was
:52:47. > :52:47.a pair of manifesto launches, a revelation over lunch and even some
:52:48. > :52:53.farmyard frolics. Welsh Labour said this election
:52:54. > :52:58.is all about who we want to be the next First Minister,
:52:59. > :53:00.so these party members and candidates gathered
:53:01. > :53:03.in Barry Island to tell us Anyway, Carwyn Jones was given
:53:04. > :53:17.a very warm welcome, and then he went on to give a speech
:53:18. > :53:21.where he said it wasn't actually I know you've been out
:53:22. > :53:27.on the streets, knocking doors, making phone calls,
:53:28. > :53:30.getting our message across. I want to thank all of you for
:53:31. > :53:33.what you are all doing and I'm fortunate to have such a fantastic
:53:34. > :53:38.selection of colleagues. Over in Cardiff, lunch
:53:39. > :53:43.was interrupted at this nursery. What's your favourite food to
:53:44. > :53:45.make, kids? Welsh Conservatives leader Andrew RT
:53:46. > :53:54.Davies said there will be a promise to treble free childcare for three
:53:55. > :53:58.and four-year-olds But what everyone really wanted
:53:59. > :54:04.to know was what he'd And so to this GP surgery in Penarth
:54:05. > :54:16.where the Welsh Lib Dems got pulses racing with the launch
:54:17. > :54:23.of their 100 page manifesto. Kirsty Williams told NHS staff
:54:24. > :54:25.what her prescription would do Make sure we get the basics right
:54:26. > :54:33.for people so when they do need to rely on services
:54:34. > :54:35.the Government provide, Not just average, not just good, not
:54:36. > :54:43.just getting by, but great service. Over in Carmarthenshire,
:54:44. > :54:48.a strong voice for agriculture was being promised by Plaid Cymru,
:54:49. > :54:51.the party said farmers would be represented at the Cabinet table
:54:52. > :54:56.if it wins the election. I'd like to think the voice
:54:57. > :54:58.of agriculture will be properly reflected within Welsh
:54:59. > :55:00.government of whatever colour. I would love to see it
:55:01. > :55:04.back where it belongs. Not only within government,
:55:05. > :55:07.but generally within society. UKIP launched its
:55:08. > :55:09.manifesto on Friday. A bright, glossy document
:55:10. > :55:18.full of promises. And so another week of hard
:55:19. > :55:22.campaigning came to an end. With polling day less
:55:23. > :55:24.than three weeks away, it's time to belt up for the ride
:55:25. > :55:43.and present a united front. the campaigning week there. You may
:55:44. > :55:48.have spotted my final test at Ukip's launch on Friday. Thank you for
:55:49. > :55:50.coming in. One of the things I'd like to discuss is the proposal you
:55:51. > :55:56.have to reintroduce Grammar schools in Wales. I guess it clear enough
:55:57. > :56:01.what it would mean. 11 plus exam, some people get in and others won't.
:56:02. > :56:06.Those who get in will go on through the grammar school. What happens to
:56:07. > :56:10.those pupils who don't pass the 11-plus? He wouldn't propose to go
:56:11. > :56:15.back to the old system where you had an 11-plus and, although there was a
:56:16. > :56:22.13 plus, it didn't make much difference. We would want to have a
:56:23. > :56:28.flexible system where every year, 11, 12, 13 and 16, pupils would be
:56:29. > :56:31.reassessed. It's also about technical and vocational schools. We
:56:32. > :56:35.will come onto that is, but what proportion of 11-year-olds will pass
:56:36. > :56:41.and what proportion will have to reapply or go to the technical and
:56:42. > :56:44.vocational courses? We don't propose to impose a system of grammar
:56:45. > :56:49.schools, but it gives the opportunity to schools, governing
:56:50. > :56:53.bodies, parents, to decide for themselves whether they want to
:56:54. > :56:56.change their school into an academic school or a technical and vocational
:56:57. > :57:01.one. It's all about giving power to the people who use it, use these
:57:02. > :57:05.institutions, not having a government taking decisions for
:57:06. > :57:10.them. If you are 11 and don't get into a grammar school and try to get
:57:11. > :57:13.into that might try to get in at 12, 13, are you getting the right
:57:14. > :57:16.education to make it more likely that you will get in later, if you
:57:17. > :57:21.are following the vocational courses? Kids learn at different
:57:22. > :57:27.speeds and we need to have a certain amount of flexibility. In the old
:57:28. > :57:34.days, when I went to grammar school, in Carmarthenshire, the secondary
:57:35. > :57:37.modern was the alternative. Those Cinderellas of the system. We want
:57:38. > :57:44.to get away with that that might get away from that. What we need to look
:57:45. > :57:47.at is the capacity of children and not putting them up with the wrong
:57:48. > :57:53.educational model for them to develop into the world of work. The
:57:54. > :57:56.other headline issues in your manifesto is a cancer nurse per be
:57:57. > :58:01.one given the diagnosis. How many more nurses would that mean and what
:58:02. > :58:05.is the cost? The health service in Wales is a complete mess. It's very
:58:06. > :58:11.poorly managed and it's failing to meet lots of targets. Cancer
:58:12. > :58:15.treatments is very bad. That's why did is badly underfunded. We have
:58:16. > :58:20.covered that many times on this programme and elsewhere. How many
:58:21. > :58:23.more nurses and what is the cost? I don't know the actual figure, but we
:58:24. > :58:26.need to reconfigure the health service budget. The main thing I
:58:27. > :58:31.want to get people to understand here is we need to introduce more
:58:32. > :58:35.democracy into the health service so the local health boards are not just
:58:36. > :58:40.full of the point are also elected representatives of patients.
:58:41. > :58:43.Patients can decipher themselves what their local priorities will be.
:58:44. > :58:47.I'm not want to provide a national target for this because it's not
:58:48. > :58:51.something which is going to be imposed upon the system by the Welsh
:58:52. > :58:55.government. How would letting an entire health board change anything?
:58:56. > :58:59.Presumably all the political parties will put their candidate ahead and
:59:00. > :59:11.we will have a board made up of different little parties arguing as
:59:12. > :59:16.they do now. 75% of all... The point is, if we have publicly elected
:59:17. > :59:22.bodies, they were representations not party interests. What we want to
:59:23. > :59:27.do is reduce the size of these boards from their current 1822 about
:59:28. > :59:31.11 or 12. More than half of whom will be elected by the people. They
:59:32. > :59:36.can then decide priorities for their areas, not happen impose upon them
:59:37. > :59:39.whether Welsh government. That's why I say we won't have a national
:59:40. > :59:43.target as such, because each individual authority will be able to
:59:44. > :59:47.decipher it is of what its local needs are and how they will be met.
:59:48. > :59:51.One of the things you are saying is that MPs would have the right to
:59:52. > :59:58.scrutinise the work of the assembly. Do you think MPs should have a sort
:59:59. > :00:01.of veto in that regard? No. What we want to do is use these
:00:02. > :00:06.underemployed MPs because Welsh MPs are not able to participate in the
:00:07. > :00:10.wealth of the House of Commons in respect of English legislation. Once
:00:11. > :00:14.you bring them into the work of the assembly and give them a role in the
:00:15. > :00:18.committee system, and also to bring local councillors into the assembly
:00:19. > :00:22.system. Rather than what the other parties want to do which is increase
:00:23. > :00:25.the number of assembly members in Cardiff. That would be a cheaper,
:00:26. > :00:33.better and more flexible way of improving the work of the assembly.
:00:34. > :00:37.There is an awful lot of's fewer that like there aren't any costings
:00:38. > :00:41.or any idea of how much more you will spend in some areas and save
:00:42. > :00:45.another areas. How do people know how serious you are about things if
:00:46. > :00:51.you do that any prices down? We are making savings. We are spending
:00:52. > :00:58.money on climate change programme which we scrap. There are lots of
:00:59. > :01:02.other ways in which we would save money at the micro level as well. We
:01:03. > :01:06.are not proposing that we have a blueprint for everything in this
:01:07. > :01:11.manifesto. This is a broadbrush document which gives people a
:01:12. > :01:14.general idea of the kind of change we would deliver. A manifesto was
:01:15. > :01:19.meant to be your detailed promises over the next five years, surely?
:01:20. > :01:24.There's no point in making detailed promises you can't keep. We've seen
:01:25. > :01:32.other parties do that before. The Liberals in particular had big
:01:33. > :01:35.problems the last parliament. Of course, we have got costings in
:01:36. > :01:39.respect of something. Not in terms of others. This is a programme for
:01:40. > :01:44.five years, of course. Economic circumstances will determine our
:01:45. > :01:48.capacity to deliver on also of things. Thank you very much for
:01:49. > :01:52.being the third of our manifesto speakers this morning. Next week, I
:01:53. > :01:57.said we expect to speak to labour and the Tories about their manifesto
:01:58. > :02:02.plans. Don't forget also we have the special Wales report debate on
:02:03. > :02:05.education. At this Tuesday at 10:40pm. For now, you can follow all
:02:06. > :02:07.the promotion on the election and the political stories as well is
:02:08. > :02:11.politics. For now, for mayor, and you can find full
:02:12. > :02:13.details of the election Polling day is on
:02:14. > :02:17.Thursday 5th of May. I do hope you can join us next week,
:02:18. > :02:20.when our guest is the Labour Now, the Treasury wading
:02:21. > :02:25.into the referendum campaign, the government will get its first
:02:26. > :02:43.look at the Chilcot report, Janan, we're going to get the
:02:44. > :02:47.Treasury report on what it would mean for the economy we leave the
:02:48. > :02:54.EU. The Chancellor will wade in as well. It is supposed to be pretty
:02:55. > :02:59.bad, the consequences. Given that the Chancellor's stalk is not as its
:03:00. > :03:04.highest, does it matter? Probably not. Even if his stock were much
:03:05. > :03:08.higher, it is still the government advocating for its own positions are
:03:09. > :03:13.your average water might look at it and think, they would say that,
:03:14. > :03:18.wouldn't they? On its own, the Treasury report and the IMF does not
:03:19. > :03:22.matter, Mark Carney's interventions do not matter, the big business
:03:23. > :03:29.interventions do not matter. Combine them in the run-up to the June 23rd
:03:30. > :03:33.vote, the drip, drip of mainstream opinion, however you want to phrase
:03:34. > :03:39.it, probably does impinge on the minds of the nervous swing voter.
:03:40. > :03:42.There is a massive antiestablishment Zeitgeist in this country and
:03:43. > :03:47.internationally. You can resent the establishment and still take them
:03:48. > :03:52.seriously when the unified on the question of pounds and pence and the
:03:53. > :03:58.family budget. That is the issue. The Remain campaign has all the big
:03:59. > :04:02.battalions on its side. The issue is, if you listen to the big
:04:03. > :04:08.battalions and you read them, then you would vote to remain. As Janan
:04:09. > :04:12.says, as we see in America, we can see here as well, lots of
:04:13. > :04:20.antiestablishment sentiment is around. If you have David Cameron,
:04:21. > :04:25.Lord Ashdown, Neil Kinnock, the president of America, Goldman Sachs,
:04:26. > :04:31.the IMF, the CBI, it could be these are the people that they want to
:04:32. > :04:36.take it out on? Absolutely. I was speaking to someone prominent from
:04:37. > :04:40.the Brexit lot yesterday, and they said the cheered when they saw the
:04:41. > :04:45.photograph of Neil Kinnock and David Cameron lined up. They think that
:04:46. > :04:51.plays to their cause. I agree with pretty much everything that Janan
:04:52. > :04:55.said, it is the drip. People do not go into the details, but get a sense
:04:56. > :05:02.of things. The antiestablishment feeling is something that is
:05:03. > :05:06.accumulating. You feel it out there, definitely. George Osborne takes the
:05:07. > :05:11.view that he could actually lose the argument in one area, the process
:05:12. > :05:15.argument, which is, it is outrageous the government is spending ?9
:05:16. > :05:19.million on this leaflet, this is not the done thing, the Electoral
:05:20. > :05:24.Commission are not happy, and Brexit, when that arrogant, but the
:05:25. > :05:29.actor Mickey needs to win is the substance argument, what Janan was
:05:30. > :05:35.talking about. The electorate do not tune into the process argument. We
:05:36. > :05:37.do and we get excited, but the electorate get tuned into the
:05:38. > :05:42.substance arrogant, and that is where he thinks he will prevail. In
:05:43. > :05:46.terms of the intervention by the Treasury, the Treasury has form on
:05:47. > :05:51.this. If you think back to the Scottish referendum they had a very
:05:52. > :05:54.meticulously prepared document. At the time, they were sitting on it
:05:55. > :05:58.and waiting for the exact moment with the thought it would be most
:05:59. > :06:03.powerful. Of course the Brexit side of things will have a very prepared
:06:04. > :06:08.for battle for everything that that report says, so I wonder if it will
:06:09. > :06:15.disappear into the key says, she says, on the one hand, on the other,
:06:16. > :06:19.and it will cancel out. This is the issue I cannot quite understand. If
:06:20. > :06:23.you look at the reports on the line the Treasury and the Cancellara
:06:24. > :06:29.going to take, it is scary. They say the economy will be in a mess,
:06:30. > :06:33.billions lost on investment, rising unemployment, interest rates on
:06:34. > :06:39.mortgages might go up. Growth will be hit. Let's say all of that is
:06:40. > :06:43.true. All of that was true whether or not Mr Cameron had done his deal
:06:44. > :06:47.with Europe. Even if he had not done a deal with Europe, surely it would
:06:48. > :06:52.follow that we should still stay in a view except all that? Does that
:06:53. > :06:57.not undermine the government's credibility? It undermines the deal
:06:58. > :07:00.which no one has talked about since February. Tristram Hunt was the
:07:01. > :07:05.first one to mention it for a long time this morning. It is a complete
:07:06. > :07:11.irrelevance. If you believe, as the Treasury will I do, that Brexit is
:07:12. > :07:16.to Mendis existential economic risk, even calling a referendum, you would
:07:17. > :07:20.wonder why risk it. These are good arguments against David Cameron,
:07:21. > :07:24.George Osborne, the government and its handling. I do not think it
:07:25. > :07:28.translates into an argument in favour of voting to leave. Jeremy
:07:29. > :07:34.Corbyn made his intervention last week with the speech. Do we know
:07:35. > :07:38.what else he's to do? Campaign with great enthusiasm to keep Britain in
:07:39. > :07:42.the European Union. We all know what Jeremy Corbyn things. He is from
:07:43. > :07:51.that element of the Labour Party, Tony Benn supporters, who campaigned
:07:52. > :07:53.for no in 1975. The signed up to the 1983 manifesto that said that
:07:54. > :07:58.Britain should leave the European Union. He was in the element of the
:07:59. > :08:04.Labour Party that did not buy into the famous French intervention. He
:08:05. > :08:09.is ticking the box. When he was leader, he found himself boxed into
:08:10. > :08:12.a corner, signed up with Hilary Benn and membership of the European
:08:13. > :08:17.Union. The calculation the Jeremy Corbyn made was that he had much
:08:18. > :08:22.bigger battles to fight. Trident was a bigger issue for him. It is a
:08:23. > :08:27.problem for David Cameron. From the look of the opinion polls at the
:08:28. > :08:32.moment, a majority of Conservative inclined voters will vote to leave.
:08:33. > :08:36.To win, David Cameron needs to get out the Labour vote and the
:08:37. > :08:41.centre-left vote. If that is all Mr Corbyn is going to do, it may be
:08:42. > :08:46.more difficult. He sounded so have hearted. If I was on a Sunday
:08:47. > :08:51.newspaper, I would be deploying people to track Jeremy Corbyn at all
:08:52. > :08:55.these low profile events that he ghosted, where no one thinks there
:08:56. > :09:00.is any press, and let's hear what he really thinks. In private, I beg you
:09:01. > :09:04.would get the comments that would expose his true position. Howdy
:09:05. > :09:10.Remain get the Labour vote added? We need other votes. They need other
:09:11. > :09:14.advocates, Alistair Darling, a strong figure, still held an immense
:09:15. > :09:20.respect by many members of the Labour Party. It is difficult. We
:09:21. > :09:24.keep coming back to this point about turnout in the referendum. Yes. What
:09:25. > :09:28.about the president of America coming here? We know what line he's
:09:29. > :09:32.going to take, but we do not know how he will coach it. Will that
:09:33. > :09:37.influence how people think about our position in Europe? To the extent
:09:38. > :09:42.that it is another voice on top of the ones that we mentioned earlier.
:09:43. > :09:47.In combination they matter more than they might matter individually. The
:09:48. > :09:50.reason that Obama matters disproportionately is a big part of
:09:51. > :09:54.the Leave argument rests on the idea that if you were to leave the
:09:55. > :10:00.European Union, there is a world of opportunity out there, and trade
:10:01. > :10:03.deals with countries like the US. We have made to answer one. Yes, so if
:10:04. > :10:08.one of the biggest foreign governments of the Lott intervenes,
:10:09. > :10:15.it undercuts the Leave argument by quite a bit. I imagine that before
:10:16. > :10:21.the referendum that the interventions by foreign governments
:10:22. > :10:27.will be more decisive than the interventions by big business
:10:28. > :10:31.domestically. It will not be phrased more strongly than that, do not
:10:32. > :10:36.expect any big trade deals. Will the president have much of an impact? I
:10:37. > :10:40.think the Brexit campaigners are surprisingly relaxed about this,
:10:41. > :10:44.which suggest to me that they do not think he will have much impact.
:10:45. > :10:49.There is a sense that perhaps America, I am not saying President
:10:50. > :10:55.Obama himself, but America may not understand the real detail of this
:10:56. > :10:59.debate. I think that is clear. What did is that many people find so
:11:00. > :11:03.objectionable about the EU. There is always that thing about do not waltz
:11:04. > :11:07.over here and tell us what to do. The Brexit campaigners were not
:11:08. > :11:12.initially relaxed. There was a letter to the embassy saying that he
:11:13. > :11:15.should not be intervening. They got their act together and thought, that
:11:16. > :11:22.is a silly process argument, let's focus on the substance. Boris
:11:23. > :11:26.Johnson on the BBC saying that the president is a hypocrite, because he
:11:27. > :11:29.would not surrender that level of sovereignty, that is an argument on
:11:30. > :11:34.substance, where they should be focusing their attention. The
:11:35. > :11:38.Chilcot Report, of great longevity, it is going to Downing Street later
:11:39. > :11:42.this week. Downing Street will look through to see of their any national
:11:43. > :11:47.security implications before it is published. Should the report be
:11:48. > :11:52.published during the referendum campaign? I cannot see a principal
:11:53. > :11:56.reason why it should not. You could argue that if it pains the
:11:57. > :12:01.establishment, and leaving the EU is an antiestablishment thing to do, it
:12:02. > :12:06.favours one side over another. That is almost an indirect thing. If the
:12:07. > :12:10.report is ready and all the editing has been done, there is no reason in
:12:11. > :12:15.principle it cannot come out. I would agree. Does this favour one
:12:16. > :12:19.side of the other? It seems to me it does not. No doubt everything at the
:12:20. > :12:24.moment is being seen through the prism of the EU referendum campaign.
:12:25. > :12:27.At the end of the data is about the lessons that need to be learned and
:12:28. > :12:32.the families desperate for it to come out. We are desperate to see
:12:33. > :12:36.it. I am not arguing it should be delayed, I wondered about the
:12:37. > :12:40.principle. If you're antiestablishment minded and the
:12:41. > :12:42.establishment get some candid kicking in the report, or it
:12:43. > :12:48.confirms all you ever thought about it, it could have a marginal impact.
:12:49. > :12:53.Or you could say that Jacques Chirac and other EU leaders back in 2003
:12:54. > :12:57.said the conflict was a disaster, and maybe we should have a common
:12:58. > :13:01.foreign and Security policy. It would be more of an issue if Tony
:13:02. > :13:06.Blair was playing a massive role in the campaign. Where is he, with its
:13:07. > :13:11.Tony Blair? I heard he wanted to be more involved and he was advised to
:13:12. > :13:16.keep his head down. For some reason, the Remain people do not seem keen
:13:17. > :13:18.on having him. We are always available for interviews. Thank you.
:13:19. > :13:27.Next week, we're on at the later time of 1:40
:13:28. > :13:34.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.