:00:38. > :00:44.President Obama leaves the UK, claiming it could take up to 10
:00:45. > :00:48.years to do a free trade deal with the UK if we leave the EU -
:00:49. > :00:53.but is America's trade deal with the EU any closer to happening?
:00:54. > :00:55.Immigration's running at more than three times
:00:56. > :00:58.the Government's target - but is the Home Secretary right that
:00:59. > :01:01.Britain can only stay in the single market if it agrees to the continued
:01:02. > :01:11.Jeremy Corbyn faces his first big electoral test as Labour Leader
:01:12. > :01:22.Later in the programme, the Tories will the party increase the number
:01:23. > :01:23.Later in the programme, the Tories and Labour have published their
:01:24. > :01:25.In the capital: manifestos ahead of the
:01:26. > :01:28.as the mayoral finishing line draws closer, Labour's candidate,
:01:29. > :01:30.Sadiq Khan, is here with us to outline why he should
:01:31. > :01:38.And with me for the duration, three journalists whom no-one puts
:01:39. > :01:40.at the back of the queue - or even the line.
:01:41. > :01:42.Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn -
:01:43. > :01:46.they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:47. > :01:49.So, Air Force One left Stanstead Airport a few hours ago
:01:50. > :01:53.and the President is now in Hanover, Germany.
:01:54. > :01:56.But the reverberations of Mr Obama's intervention in the EU referendum
:01:57. > :02:00.On Friday, the President told a press conference
:02:01. > :02:07.the EU, it would be at the back of the queue when it comes to doing
:02:08. > :02:11.a free trade deal with the US - comments he was asked about in a BBC
:02:12. > :02:15.The UK would not be able to negotiate something with the United
:02:16. > :02:21.We wouldn't abandon our efforts to negotiate a trade deal with our
:02:22. > :02:31.largest trading partner, the European market, but rather,
:02:32. > :02:34.it could be five years from now, ten years
:02:35. > :02:40.from now, before we were able to actually get something done.
:02:41. > :02:42.And I'm joined now by the Justice Minister and Leave
:02:43. > :02:55.Welcome to the programme. Mr Obama, 5-10 years for a free-trade deal
:02:56. > :02:59.with the UK under the EU. He's right, isn't he? What was most
:03:00. > :03:03.interesting this morning was how far he has backtracked since Friday
:03:04. > :03:07.evening. As you said, we were told we would be sent to the back of the
:03:08. > :03:12.queue if we didn't take his advice and stay in the EU. Now, he has said
:03:13. > :03:19.that if Britain was independent from the EU, we could not expect to do a
:03:20. > :03:24.free-trade deal quicker than with the EU. No one is really expecting
:03:25. > :03:29.that, so I think the reality is that these things can take time. It has
:03:30. > :03:37.taken almost 40 years even to get to this stage with a stalled EU- US
:03:38. > :03:41.deal. I think we would be better placed, and we are not prejudiced by
:03:42. > :03:47.being outside the EU in doing that. The president has made it clear that
:03:48. > :03:51.American power will do regional deals. That is why he has put so
:03:52. > :03:56.much energy into a specific deal with the 11 countries. He wants to
:03:57. > :04:01.do and EU deal involving all the EU members. The only started in 2013,
:04:02. > :04:06.they haven't been at it for 40 years. We have been talking about it
:04:07. > :04:11.for 40 years. That is a different matter. The negotiations started in
:04:12. > :04:15.2013. We would be a long way behind these two megadeal. When he said we
:04:16. > :04:21.were at the back of the queue, I was a bit startled, so I went and
:04:22. > :04:24.checked. The US has no other bilateral negotiations for a freight
:04:25. > :04:31.train with any other country than the EU. When you look at the 23
:04:32. > :04:35.trade deals it has, none of them are worth an economy bigger than
:04:36. > :04:39.Britain. Let's remember that if America signed a trade deal with us,
:04:40. > :04:44.it would be the equivalent of the North American trade deal because...
:04:45. > :04:49.I think we have strong mutual interest in doing it. America had a
:04:50. > :04:57.number of bilateral free trade talks going on with about 15 different
:04:58. > :05:01.countries. It essentially froze them because it wants to do regional
:05:02. > :05:05.deals - why would it reopen at Mr Ross? In the last 25 years, it has
:05:06. > :05:11.done a string of bilateral and regional negotiations, given the
:05:12. > :05:16.collapse of WTO talks, the Pacific deal was done. The EU one is stuck
:05:17. > :05:20.in the mud. If Britain came out of the EU, saying, we are not shackled
:05:21. > :05:24.by the special interests of film-makers who don't want American
:05:25. > :05:30.box sets polluting French culture, we want insist on the labelling
:05:31. > :05:33.requirements unfettered cheese that the Greeks do. And we won't have a
:05:34. > :05:36.dispute about the settlement mechanism that the Europeans are
:05:37. > :05:40.concerned about and people are concerned about in this country. It
:05:41. > :05:44.is important to understand why the Americans insist on that, because
:05:45. > :05:48.they don't trust the court systems in many European countries will stop
:05:49. > :05:51.American firms trust British courts to resolve commercial this beautiful
:05:52. > :05:57.stop all of these problems will be swept away, and I think we would be
:05:58. > :06:02.well placed. If we're done with the EU and we not a member, the EU will
:06:03. > :06:07.have free trade with United States and we don't know when we will have
:06:08. > :06:15.it. It could give a huge advantage to the French, Germans, Italians and
:06:16. > :06:23.Spanish. We know that the White House briefs out... The White House
:06:24. > :06:27.regularly briefed it. If you look at White House commentary, let me just
:06:28. > :06:32.put this to you - if America was my priority is the EU deal, the best
:06:33. > :06:36.way of ramping up its negotiations leveraged would be to come to a
:06:37. > :06:40.relatively quick deal with Britain. That would put the pressure on. In
:06:41. > :06:46.trade negotiations, America had a history of doing that. Do you accept
:06:47. > :06:52.that whatever our relationship with the EU, if we read, we can have no
:06:53. > :06:56.full access to the single market unless we agree to free movement of
:06:57. > :07:00.people? It depends what you mean by full access to the single market. I
:07:01. > :07:09.think we would not see any trade barriers go up because we are the
:07:10. > :07:13.fifth biggest economy in the world, but it means we can have proper
:07:14. > :07:17.control of our borders and we will not be bound by the stifling
:07:18. > :07:20.regulation that gives us a competitive disadvantage. It is
:07:21. > :07:24.important for small businesses here. You still don't know if we would
:07:25. > :07:29.have access to the single market. You can't tell as that. Everyone who
:07:30. > :07:34.does who is not a member of the EU has had to agree to free movement.
:07:35. > :07:37.It is a strawman to say, I can't tell you what the deal looks like
:07:38. > :07:42.until we have had the referendum. I can tell you this: Look at the
:07:43. > :07:47.options being put at their - Swiss, Norwegian, Turkish. I think because
:07:48. > :07:54.Britain's economy is bigger than all of those combined, and because
:07:55. > :07:58.French farmers and German car manufacturers sell as ?60 billion
:07:59. > :08:02.more each year than we sell them, we are very well placed and mutual
:08:03. > :08:06.self-interest suggests we would cut a good deal.
:08:07. > :08:11.How would we have more control over borders if we left? We would have
:08:12. > :08:15.control over who could come to work here, I understand that, if we want
:08:16. > :08:19.in the EU any more, provided we weren't part of the single market,
:08:20. > :08:23.but how would we be able to stop people coming here? Do you think if
:08:24. > :08:30.we leave the EU that, if you're French or German or Italian, you
:08:31. > :08:34.would need a Visa? There are two issues: The numbers, and I think
:08:35. > :08:37.that as the Home Secretary conceded, we cannot control the numbers
:08:38. > :08:42.because of free movement if we are in the EU, and that makes life
:08:43. > :08:46.harder. The second question is, checks at the border, preventative
:08:47. > :08:49.ones. Under UK law with non-EU countries, we can stop someone
:08:50. > :08:55.coming in because it is not conducive to the public good. With
:08:56. > :09:01.the EU, we can only deny entry if there is a serious, credible and
:09:02. > :09:06.present threat. Which we do. As a result, since 2010, 6000 people have
:09:07. > :09:11.been turned back from the EU. If you compare that with people from out
:09:12. > :09:19.with the EU, we have registered to 60 7000. That shows the stronger
:09:20. > :09:25.checks. I understand, but my question is, outside the EU, we
:09:26. > :09:29.would not insist on visas for the Germans, French and so on? We would
:09:30. > :09:36.have to look at that as part of the negotiations. At the moment, the
:09:37. > :09:41.Obama Administration is looking at new Visa requirement and screening
:09:42. > :09:45.from Germany, Belgium, Greece, France because of the recent
:09:46. > :09:48.terrorist attacks. I think we should at least have the power and control
:09:49. > :09:54.to do that to keep Britain safe. Then we would need a Visa to go to
:09:55. > :09:58.France and Germany. A final question: Why do you not want the
:09:59. > :10:02.leader of the National front in France, Marine Le Pen, to come here?
:10:03. > :10:06.She's one of your biggest supporters. Her views are racist and
:10:07. > :10:12.I don't share her values. I think our party is deeply offensive. But
:10:13. > :10:16.she is on your site. All the more reason why I wouldn't like to see
:10:17. > :10:21.her come. So we do have control over our borders of the Home Secretary
:10:22. > :10:27.can stop coming? People from outside the EU, rappers like snoop doggy
:10:28. > :10:30.dog, have been barred entry because they have a offensive views. If the
:10:31. > :10:36.Home Secretary checks with officials, we probably cannot be
:10:37. > :10:39.nigh Marine Le Pen entry. It is another demonstration of the things
:10:40. > :10:41.we can't do because we don't have the proper controls of our borders.
:10:42. > :10:43.Thank you. Jeremy Corbyn will get his first big
:10:44. > :10:46.electoral test in just under two weeks' time, when voters go
:10:47. > :10:49.to the polls in local Opposition parties usually do
:10:50. > :10:51.well in these contests, even when they've just
:10:52. > :10:53.lost a general election. But with analysts predicting
:10:54. > :10:55.that the party could actually lose councillors, party
:10:56. > :10:57.strategists are There's a simple principle
:10:58. > :11:04.in British politics - if you want to win elections, you need to win
:11:05. > :11:10.seats of every shape and size. When in government, parties tend
:11:11. > :11:14.to lose council seats. In opposition,
:11:15. > :11:18.they tend to win them. Even Michael Foot, who went
:11:19. > :11:20.on to lead Labour to its biggest general election defeat
:11:21. > :11:26.ever, did pretty well to start with. In his first electoral test,
:11:27. > :11:29.in 1981, the party took When Neil Kinnock became leader,
:11:30. > :11:34.he also managed a more And then Ed Miliband,
:11:35. > :11:47.he picked up 857 seats. Since local government was invented
:11:48. > :11:49.in its modern form in 1974,
:11:50. > :11:54.there have been only two years - 1982 and 1985 - when the opposition
:11:55. > :11:57.party has actually lost seats in a local
:11:58. > :11:59.election if it is not So far, so historically positive for
:12:00. > :12:05.Jeremy Corbyn. The problem is, experts in the field
:12:06. > :12:11.reckon Labour could lose 150 seats in these English
:12:12. > :12:16.council elections. Even the party machine has been
:12:17. > :12:19.managing expectations. You simply can't
:12:20. > :12:21.explain away any kind of net loss of seats
:12:22. > :12:25.in these elections. After all, a new leader
:12:26. > :12:30.in the middle of his honeymoon period following on from
:12:31. > :12:35.a disastrous mega-galactic shambles of a budget failure shouldn't expect
:12:36. > :12:37.to see anything other than dramatic gains in the local
:12:38. > :12:41.elections that follow. Anything else,
:12:42. > :12:42.historically speaking, is It's an argument put forward by some
:12:43. > :12:51.of his MPs. I'm not going to put
:12:52. > :12:53.a specific number on it, but 300-400 seats would be a good
:12:54. > :12:55.step in the We have to be ambitious,
:12:56. > :13:01.because we are the Labour Party, and we are a
:13:02. > :13:04.party of government. We exist in order to be
:13:05. > :13:07.in Government and make a difference Southampton, that is where
:13:08. > :13:11.Ed Miliband has been... The last time this batch of council
:13:12. > :13:15.seats were contested, Labour under Southampton was one of a number
:13:16. > :13:24.of areas where Labour failed to capitalise in the general election,
:13:25. > :13:26.losing a Parliamentary If Jeremy Corbyn wants to be
:13:27. > :13:31.Prime Minister in 2020, he will be expected to make inroads now in many
:13:32. > :13:35.of the English council areas, and I think that all
:13:36. > :13:42.leaders are judged by We've got from now until
:13:43. > :13:46.the 5th of May to deliver positive and encouraging
:13:47. > :13:49.results for Labour. It's always hard to compare
:13:50. > :13:51.historic elections. There are always different
:13:52. > :13:54.political contexts, varying numbers of seats up grabs,
:13:55. > :13:58.but rightly or wrongly, several Labour MPs I've spoken
:13:59. > :14:01.to will do just that, conscious that Jeremy Corbyn
:14:02. > :14:03.could make history for the And we're joined now
:14:04. > :14:11.from Salford by the Shadow Education Secretary,
:14:12. > :14:21.Lucy Powell. Welcome to the programme, Lucy
:14:22. > :14:24.Powell. Your Labour MP Carly, Stephen Kinnock, says you should be
:14:25. > :14:29.gaining an extra 300-400 council seat in England - does that seem
:14:30. > :14:35.right? I won't get into the predictions game. Like Stephen, like
:14:36. > :14:39.Jeremy and the rest of the Shadow Cabinet, I am optimistic about these
:14:40. > :14:45.elections. We are a political party and always looking to make gains and
:14:46. > :14:49.progress at every electoral test. These elections are no different. I
:14:50. > :14:56.won't get into the predictions business. Hold on. What about the
:14:57. > :15:00.principle that new opposition leaders always do pretty well in
:15:01. > :15:09.their first electoral test? I was looking at the record - Ed Miliband,
:15:10. > :15:13.Tony Blair, Neil Kinnock, even Michael Foot, they all made gains.
:15:14. > :15:17.We must expect Jeremy Corbyn to do the same, surely?
:15:18. > :15:28.I have been hoping we will make progress. Do you think you will make
:15:29. > :15:32.gains? We are looking at winning in London for the first time since
:15:33. > :15:36.2004, we are looking to make progress in the local elections, we
:15:37. > :15:41.are looking to stay in power in Wales. Obviously in Scotland things
:15:42. > :15:44.are difficult there and they are long-term legacy issues for the
:15:45. > :15:49.Labour Party to deal with in Scotland but you do have to set it
:15:50. > :15:53.into context. It has been an incredibly tough year for the Labour
:15:54. > :15:58.Party, we suffered a crushing election defeat. That was not even a
:15:59. > :16:04.year ago, which we weren't expecting and everybody else wasn't expecting
:16:05. > :16:10.either. We had a long, drawn-out leadership contest. We have a new
:16:11. > :16:15.leader in Jeremy Corbyn and it takes time for everybody to adjust to
:16:16. > :16:20.that. But I think we have had a very positive few weeks where we have
:16:21. > :16:26.been on the front foot, we have been effective opposition, with issues
:16:27. > :16:31.like the Budget... We haven't got too much time. Let me put it in
:16:32. > :16:37.context. The Tories have divided and they are in disarray, last month
:16:38. > :16:45.brought yet another omnishambles Budget. Why would you not be poised
:16:46. > :16:58.for big gains? I am very hopeful we will get big gains. London will be a
:16:59. > :17:02.big gain, we haven't won since 2004. What I'm interested in is how we on
:17:03. > :17:07.the right track for winning in 2020, and that is a really tough job. I
:17:08. > :17:13.don't think anyone underestimates the challenge we face as a political
:17:14. > :17:17.party. Let me see if I can pin you down. Maybe one of the reasons it is
:17:18. > :17:25.not an easy job is that you may not be in tune with the public mood.
:17:26. > :17:29.This chart shows they regularly rate immigration one of their number one
:17:30. > :17:35.concern is, ahead of the NHS and the economy, this is recent poll. Most
:17:36. > :17:40.are not against immigration but they think the influx is too high. How
:17:41. > :17:45.does that square with Jeremy Corbyn's view that we have not let
:17:46. > :17:51.too many in? All of these issues we have got to think deeply about and
:17:52. > :17:54.there is an urgency to that. Immigration, welfare, the economy,
:17:55. > :17:59.these were all issues at the last election but that was only a few
:18:00. > :18:04.months ago. If we knew the answer is, if we knew how we would make
:18:05. > :18:08.labour relevant again, the Labour values I care about, how we will
:18:09. > :18:12.make them relevant in the modern world, if I had those answers we
:18:13. > :18:19.wouldn't be sitting here now because we would be in Government. Do you
:18:20. > :18:25.agree with Jeremy Corbyn... We have got to spend time, doing the
:18:26. > :18:31.difficult job of understanding how the Labour Party can be relevant in
:18:32. > :18:38.the modern world, and that includes issues... If you let me come back to
:18:39. > :18:42.immigration and get a specific answer out of you. Do you agree with
:18:43. > :18:48.Jeremy Corbyn that in recent years we have not let too many in? I don't
:18:49. > :18:52.want to get into a numbers game about immigration. I know from all
:18:53. > :18:56.the work I do on the doorstep, immigration is a massive issue and
:18:57. > :19:04.people have real concerns about the impact that immigration has on some
:19:05. > :19:07.of our communities. As the Labour Party, we have to address those.
:19:08. > :19:13.That's why I thought we were right at the last election to have a
:19:14. > :19:18.policy around the emergency rate for example on benefits for EU migrants,
:19:19. > :19:24.a policy the Government have adopted, but I don't think simple
:19:25. > :19:29.retail policy offers are what Labour's challenge is right now. Our
:19:30. > :19:34.challenge is over the next few years what is our relevant values that we
:19:35. > :19:43.can offer to the public that will help us win the election. Let me
:19:44. > :19:49.come onto education. You asked if you planned to bring academies under
:19:50. > :20:01.local authority control and you said no, by 2020 almost every secondary
:20:02. > :20:06.school will be a free School or an Academy, do you stand by that? Only
:20:07. > :20:13.17% of primary schools are academies. You said nearly every
:20:14. > :20:17.secondary, do you stand by that? I don't know about primary schools,
:20:18. > :20:21.let's see what happens over the next few weeks because the Government's
:20:22. > :20:26.attempt to force all schools against their wishes to become an Academy is
:20:27. > :20:29.on the rocks. They put the brakes on some schools feeling they have no
:20:30. > :20:37.option but to become academies, which is what many schools felt over
:20:38. > :20:41.the last few years. And I understand the policy of making every school
:20:42. > :20:46.and Academy is difficult, I take your point, but you said every
:20:47. > :20:51.secondary school and most primaries will be free schools or an Academy.
:20:52. > :20:57.It is not that different from where the Government wants to end up, is
:20:58. > :21:03.it? You are taking my comments out of context. I was talking about
:21:04. > :21:07.Labour's policy at the next election in that circumstance, and my point
:21:08. > :21:12.is that we have got to look anew at what is the accountability framework
:21:13. > :21:16.for all schools? How do we make sure there are sufficient places in our
:21:17. > :21:19.schools, that we have raising standards in our schools, we have
:21:20. > :21:24.sufficient school improvement support for our schools, and we have
:21:25. > :21:26.proper accountability of some of these Academy chains of which we are
:21:27. > :21:33.seeing many more problems arising with their accountability. That is
:21:34. > :21:38.what I will be looking at. In the short term, I will be fighting tooth
:21:39. > :21:42.and nail the Government's plans to force good and outstanding schools
:21:43. > :21:53.against their wishes to become academies. Jeremy Corbyn has
:21:54. > :22:02.described academise a share -- described... Jeremy said lots of
:22:03. > :22:08.things about the forced programme. Is it asset stripping or not? In
:22:09. > :22:14.some cases it can be. The key question is does it meet the test of
:22:15. > :22:18.school improvement? There is mixed evidence of whether it leads to
:22:19. > :22:24.school improvement, as the education select committee have found. The
:22:25. > :22:27.second question is does it give schools freedom and autonomy? How
:22:28. > :22:33.can that be the case if you are forcing a school against its wish to
:22:34. > :22:38.be an Academy. That is not real autonomy. And the first test is
:22:39. > :22:49.around accountability and there are some very real issues there. Some
:22:50. > :22:53.might call that asset stripping. If our state system is being asset
:22:54. > :22:59.stripped as your leader claims, that would be really serious so is he
:23:00. > :23:03.right or wrong? There have been examples of financial mismanagement
:23:04. > :23:06.in some Academy chains, we have seen those recently where directors have
:23:07. > :23:13.been paying themselves double money by setting up arms length
:23:14. > :23:18.organisations that they are also paying themselves from so there are
:23:19. > :23:23.issues of financial probity which is why both Jeremy and I have been
:23:24. > :23:28.arguing that there needs to be a much more robust financial
:23:29. > :23:35.accountability structure. He seems to be against academies altogether.
:23:36. > :23:41.We have got exactly the same view about this, Jeremy and I have worked
:23:42. > :23:46.closely on these issues and that is that there are some excellent
:23:47. > :23:49.Academy schools, there are also some excellent community schools. This
:23:50. > :23:55.tired argument of pitting one school type against another is frankly
:23:56. > :23:58.over. What we have got to be addressing is ensuring we have good
:23:59. > :24:02.quality teachers and head teachers in all of our schools, something the
:24:03. > :24:06.Government is failing to do. We've got to make sure schools have
:24:07. > :24:14.adequate resources, and they are facing real terms cuts to their
:24:15. > :24:19.budgets, and make sure we have enough places for all of our
:24:20. > :24:25.children. There is a crisis in school places and teacher shortages.
:24:26. > :24:30.Very interesting ground which you have gone over before. I want to
:24:31. > :24:36.show you an advert gone up for a new media spokesperson for Jeremy
:24:37. > :24:42.Corbyn. There is a fixed term contract for Jeremy Corbyn, leader
:24:43. > :24:47.of the Labour Party, running from December 2016 or when he ceases to
:24:48. > :24:53.be leader, whichever is sooner. Which do you think will be sooner? I
:24:54. > :24:58.haven't seen the advert but Jeremy has only been a leader for a few
:24:59. > :25:03.months. OK, you're not going to tell me which would be sooner? We are
:25:04. > :25:06.supporting him in his job and I'm not going to comment on that. Very
:25:07. > :25:08.well. Thank you very much. The party views on Europe
:25:09. > :25:13.and immigration are well-known, but voters may not know
:25:14. > :25:15.what Nigel Farage's Purple Army thinks about issues
:25:16. > :25:18.like recycling and council tax. Ukip, which had never held more
:25:19. > :25:21.than a handful of local election seats before,
:25:22. > :25:22.achieved its first major breakthrough in 2013,
:25:23. > :25:28.when they gained 139 seats. The following year they increased
:25:29. > :25:32.their total by another 161 seats, performing particularly well
:25:33. > :25:36.in parts of Essex. While in 2015, on the same day
:25:37. > :25:39.as the general election, In that set of elections,
:25:40. > :25:48.Ukip won control of Thanet Council in Kent, the first time the party
:25:49. > :25:51.took control of a local council, But within six months they had
:25:52. > :25:55.lost overall control, after five councillors left Ukip,
:25:56. > :26:00.saying they were unhappy with the council's lack of action
:26:01. > :26:02.on a manifesto pledge to reopen So, 2016 is the last year
:26:03. > :26:08.in the four-yearly cycle Will they be able to
:26:09. > :26:18.maintain the momentum? We're joined now by the party's
:26:19. > :26:27.deputy chairman, Diane James. Welcome to the programme. You have
:26:28. > :26:33.got your referendum running strongly in the news, immigration is a huge
:26:34. > :26:38.issue as well. What would be a good result for Ukip in these local
:26:39. > :26:42.elections? Certainly to retain the 20 seat we will be defending this
:26:43. > :26:49.time, but also building on that. We are fielding 1400 candidates out of
:26:50. > :26:53.the 2700 that will be available across the country. We are also
:26:54. > :26:59.fielding candidates in the big Assembly elections - Stormont,
:27:00. > :27:06.Holyrood... And the police crime Commissioner. Are you looking to
:27:07. > :27:13.gain? Of course, we wouldn't be doing anything otherwise. Populist
:27:14. > :27:17.and anti-EU parties are gaining ground right across Europe so if you
:27:18. > :27:22.don't gain ground there must be serious doubts in this climate about
:27:23. > :27:25.your long-term future. We are looking to gain ground and increase
:27:26. > :27:30.the number of councillors we have got as well as membership of all of
:27:31. > :27:38.the assemblies I have referred to. The momentum is behind the populist
:27:39. > :27:41.parties, but certainly behind the Eurosceptic parties because what
:27:42. > :27:45.they do say and they share in terms of issues is the negative impact of
:27:46. > :27:49.EU membership is having on particularly for instance just
:27:50. > :27:53.trying to plan in terms of infrastructure and other aspects.
:27:54. > :28:01.And yet when you get a foothold in local government it doesn't go very
:28:02. > :28:06.well. You controlled Thanet, within six months you had lost overall
:28:07. > :28:12.control. You are still just a protest party. We are not just a
:28:13. > :28:17.protest party. The issue you are referring to is Manston airport,
:28:18. > :28:21.very difficult in terms of the overall plans for that from not only
:28:22. > :28:26.just the local authority but also the county council level so we don't
:28:27. > :28:30.actually have control of Kent County Council. I'm sure if we had we could
:28:31. > :28:36.have had a lot more import there. Equally there is this issue of a
:28:37. > :28:40.local problem and individuals coming into government, no matter which
:28:41. > :28:44.party they represent, understanding how slowly sometimes decisions can
:28:45. > :28:50.be reached. Look at Boston Borough Council, you did well there in 2015.
:28:51. > :28:54.Then one Ukip councillor was suspended, the party split down the
:28:55. > :28:59.middle because you couldn't agree on a leader, six councils carried on
:29:00. > :29:06.under the Ukip banner, six others under the Ukip Group, it is a
:29:07. > :29:10.shambles. You always pick up on the bad news to do with Ukip but you
:29:11. > :29:15.never pick up on the bad news to do with other parties. This morning you
:29:16. > :29:25.reeled off a series of good examples, but you have you raised
:29:26. > :29:31.any of the councillors from Labour across the country who have had to
:29:32. > :29:35.be suspended for serious reasons. Some decided to walk away from the
:29:36. > :29:39.Ukip banner for whatever reasons, but in terms of the individuals who
:29:40. > :29:47.have been suspended or had to stand down, that is the different ball
:29:48. > :29:52.game and I would like you to be fair in tackling that.
:29:53. > :29:57.My job is to put the tough questions each party. Why would people vote
:29:58. > :30:01.for a party that might not even have a reason to exist after the
:30:02. > :30:08.referendum? We will have a reason to exist because no one else will hold
:30:09. > :30:12.David Cameron to account and make sure it happens. That is my view. In
:30:13. > :30:18.terms of our counsellors, bear in mind we are the only party out there
:30:19. > :30:26.that does not flip councillors. Probably just as well! It sounds
:30:27. > :30:31.like you cannot be whipped. I am not into dominatrix stuff. I'm talking
:30:32. > :30:35.about politics! It is something our cabinet ministers are accused of the
:30:36. > :30:39.moment. There is real disquiet amongst the electorate that they
:30:40. > :30:43.want to vote for somebody, and then they see the systems that are in
:30:44. > :30:46.place, cabinet rather than committee, backbenchers who find
:30:47. > :30:51.themselves in a situation where they can't contribute to decisions. And
:30:52. > :31:00.we are talking about incursions into the green belt, housing targets and
:31:01. > :31:04.academies. This is the sort of issue that I Ukip councillor who is not
:31:05. > :31:12.whipped will be able to represent their community. Even if we leave
:31:13. > :31:16.the EU, Ukip continues? Yes, it does. We will talk to the
:31:17. > :31:17.Conservatives and Liberal Democrats about the local elections in England
:31:18. > :31:19.next week. We say goodbye to viewers
:31:20. > :31:41.in Scotland, who leave us now Low and welcome to the Sunday
:31:42. > :31:47.politics Wales. Today: Both the Conservatives and Labour have
:31:48. > :31:53.released their manifestos and this week. We will be looking at what the
:31:54. > :31:57.smaller parties have to offer. It has been another busy week of
:31:58. > :32:01.campaigning ahead of that election. All the major parties have their
:32:02. > :32:04.manifestos, available for you to read at your pleasure if you like
:32:05. > :32:17.that sort of thing. Last week, we heard from Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems
:32:18. > :32:24.about their policies. First, the highlights of the campaign week.
:32:25. > :32:26.It was another roaring week on the campaign trail as two more
:32:27. > :32:33.The Tories launch their manifesto in Wrexham at the company that makes
:32:34. > :32:38.This is no game for the Tories, who say Labour would
:32:39. > :32:47.The first challenge, though, is to get the public engaged.
:32:48. > :32:50.It is our job, our role and it must be our passion to make sure we
:32:51. > :32:52.energise those voters to come out and vote
:32:53. > :32:57.Andrew RT Davis says it's time for a change and only one party
:32:58. > :33:04.I hope the voters will vote for the party that
:33:05. > :33:06.will deliver for them in the National Assembly
:33:07. > :33:08.for Wales and that party is the Welsh Conservatives.
:33:09. > :33:12.Or we can continue with 17 years of Labour's managed decline.
:33:13. > :33:17.I don't think anyone wants that managed decline to continue.
:33:18. > :33:20.At a college in Nantgarw near Caerphilly,
:33:21. > :33:24.students were being marshalled into place for Labour's launch.
:33:25. > :33:30.And then, at last, and with everyone ready, Labour got on with it.
:33:31. > :33:35.It is absolutely fantastic to be with you this
:33:36. > :33:42.The man who wrote the manifesto was full of energy,
:33:43. > :33:47.which was a little surprising given how busy he has been.
:33:48. > :33:50.I have travelled more than 4,000 miles, met with thousands upon
:33:51. > :33:54.thousands of people, as we have discussed and explored
:33:55. > :33:59.Political parties shouldn't think they have a monopoly on wisdom and
:34:00. > :34:01.that means you have to talk to people
:34:02. > :34:03.on the ground, in health, and education,
:34:04. > :34:06.in job creation, and then take their ideas, acknowledge them
:34:07. > :34:10.of course, and then make sure those ideas can be taken forward.
:34:11. > :34:12.They say politics is a dirty business.
:34:13. > :34:18.Absolutely delighted to do something mucky and messy.
:34:19. > :34:21.And on a visit to Brecon, Lib Dem leader Tim Farron wasn't afraid to
:34:22. > :34:30.His party got a pasting at last year's general election
:34:31. > :34:34.and, with further losses predicted at the Assembly election as well,
:34:35. > :34:38.the party and its leader in Wales face a race against time
:34:39. > :34:48.You've got to accept the position that you are in.
:34:49. > :34:51.I am always a glass-half-full person.
:34:52. > :34:53.I think, what is the purpose of our party?
:34:54. > :34:56.And our party is there to be the party that is on the side
:34:57. > :34:59.of the individuals, not on the side of the vested interests.
:35:00. > :35:02.To speak for people's values, not to play to one client group.
:35:03. > :35:06.And to try to stand up for fresh, authentic government.
:35:07. > :35:09.The parties know that older people tend to turn out to vote so it is
:35:10. > :35:12.perhaps with that in mind that, in Llandudno this week,
:35:13. > :35:14.Plaid Cymru said it would scrap care fees
:35:15. > :35:17.for the elderly and people with dementia.
:35:18. > :35:20.It is important to break down the barriers between health
:35:21. > :35:23.and social care and the way to do that is integrate
:35:24. > :35:25.the service is fully and also get rid of
:35:26. > :35:29.the artificial historic divide between charging for social
:35:30. > :35:32.and dementia care and not charging for health care.
:35:33. > :35:35.As for Ukip, well, look who has turned up here in Welshpool
:35:36. > :35:41.Yes, Nigel Farage visited Mid Wales, where he met local
:35:42. > :35:45.shopkeepers and did a spot of phone canvassing as well.
:35:46. > :35:54.There you go, that surprised you, didn't it?
:35:55. > :35:57.The Ukip leader seemed to enjoy himself.
:35:58. > :36:04.We had it in Inverness yesterday where you meet a lot of people
:36:05. > :36:08.and have fun and then a couple of people abuse you and you
:36:09. > :36:10.think, oh, that is what the media will show, but actually
:36:11. > :36:15.But real politics is clearly thirsty work and Mr Farage was soon ready
:36:16. > :36:20.for his obligatory photo drinking a pint.
:36:21. > :36:23.With another week's campaigning over, here's to the next.
:36:24. > :36:39.As we heard, the Conservatives unveiled their manifesto this week
:36:40. > :36:44.and Susie Davis is here to talk about it. You wrote the manifesto,
:36:45. > :36:48.that's fair to say, isn't it? It is not just the work of one
:36:49. > :36:55.person, a lot of other people put work into it.
:36:56. > :36:59.Take the credit. One of the things that we cannot see in the manifesto
:37:00. > :37:03.is a lot of costings and her things well exactly work. You see will
:37:04. > :37:09.create 50,000 jobs over the next five years. I will you do that? How
:37:10. > :37:11.does a government create 50,000 jobs?
:37:12. > :37:15.It is about creating the conditions for the economy to thrive as well as
:37:16. > :37:19.putting in the programmes and Pritchard schemes that would have
:37:20. > :37:27.been talking about in depth in the manifesto. Apprenticeship schemes.
:37:28. > :37:29.We were talking about a mixture of large enterprises and small
:37:30. > :37:32.businesses and creating new skill sets.
:37:33. > :37:38.But you don't see how many apprenticeships.
:37:39. > :37:46.We haven't set limits. We are conscious that there are only 200
:37:47. > :37:50.thousand small businesses in Wales -- 2000.
:37:51. > :37:56.We won't know whether you have succeeded or not cause you haven't
:37:57. > :38:04.set a target. We are working with both ends of the
:38:05. > :38:09.industry spectrum and have a small enterprise industry. People of all
:38:10. > :38:13.ages are able to take up apprenticeships that are meaningful
:38:14. > :38:18.and not just sausage machine figures.
:38:19. > :38:25.Another set of figures, treble the childcare allowance. An extra 20
:38:26. > :38:27.hours a week. That would affect 70,000 children. What is the
:38:28. > :38:34.costing? That will cost roughly 55 million a
:38:35. > :38:38.year. It will cost less in later years because we will have to train
:38:39. > :38:45.up childcare professionals during this period. That is already paid
:38:46. > :38:49.for. We have made this clear some weeks due to the changes being made
:38:50. > :38:51.in Jewish and fees. No figure on the investment in
:38:52. > :39:04.health service. How much more? The promises to
:39:05. > :39:10.protect the hell service budget -- health service budget. What we have
:39:11. > :39:16.committed to is that the money coming down from the health portion
:39:17. > :39:19.will be used for the health budget. There are school permitting changes
:39:20. > :39:24.within the service because we wanted to be more efficient.
:39:25. > :39:29.In the last couple of weeks we have heard of potential 1 billion a year
:39:30. > :39:33.savings that the Conservatives have identified in the NHS budget. Is
:39:34. > :39:39.that what you are looking at? This is about something else.
:39:40. > :39:45.You can do that in Wrexham has said it quite recently.
:39:46. > :39:49.What he identified was a report from some years ago that identified ?1
:39:50. > :39:54.billion of savings. That is not included in our costings. There is
:39:55. > :39:58.potentially even more for the health service to use for the things it
:39:59. > :40:04.needs now. One policy you have in the
:40:05. > :40:10.manifesto, funding schools directly. Saving ?150 million a year. Is that
:40:11. > :40:14.right? Savings is the wrong word. That is a
:40:15. > :40:21.redeployment of money to go direct to schools. Rather than two
:40:22. > :40:25.consortiums. At the moment local authorities take
:40:26. > :40:28.a slice and pass it on but you say give it all to schools.
:40:29. > :40:34.We are seeing local authorities can keep some of it because services
:40:35. > :40:39.like school transport and special needs pupils may need a more
:40:40. > :40:45.regionalised thing but more money will be going to schools.
:40:46. > :40:50.How much? 156 million.
:40:51. > :40:55.What were the schools have to do with that additional money?
:40:56. > :41:07.They can either choose to use the local authority but they will have a
:41:08. > :41:10.choice. You will be losing the consortium which to placate the work
:41:11. > :41:17.of local authorities in ensuring excellence and standards.
:41:18. > :41:21.You will be scrapping the tuition fee which is very generous to
:41:22. > :41:25.students from Wales. They get around by thousand every year from the
:41:26. > :41:30.Welsh Government. You are proposing to pay around half the rent every
:41:31. > :41:34.year. That is a lot less than they get at the moment. It's a lot less
:41:35. > :41:40.generous to Welsh students. Is that correct?
:41:41. > :41:43.It's about what kind of debt they would prefer to have. At the moment
:41:44. > :41:47.it is long-term and you don't hear back until you are certain amount.
:41:48. > :41:53.It doesn't affect your credit rating.
:41:54. > :41:59.But it will be more. It is a manageable debt. But if you
:42:00. > :42:06.get another loan and cannot pay it back to fix your credit rating in
:42:07. > :42:13.the future. And some students are pushed into going to payday lenders
:42:14. > :42:17.which is a foolish thing to do. They will be taking three times more
:42:18. > :42:24.than they are currently taking. Ayew happy with that?
:42:25. > :42:28.Students understand have to take on some debt for the prospects of their
:42:29. > :42:37.future but they are not taking on the cost of learning but the of
:42:38. > :42:40.living. I can tell you from sitting in the
:42:41. > :42:44.Assembly previously that one of the things I get some people's nurses
:42:45. > :42:52.when the health minister says that as a matter for the health board.
:42:53. > :42:54.What is going to change? They will take over the direct
:42:55. > :43:03.accountability for the local health boards. Accountability between
:43:04. > :43:06.patients and the board themselves. We tried something similar in
:43:07. > :43:12.Scotland and ditched it because it didn't work. Why would not work they
:43:13. > :43:16.are but work year? There's no reason why it shouldn't
:43:17. > :43:20.work. Families and patients can have somewhere to go that they do not
:43:21. > :43:29.know at the moment. Instead it is faceless accountability at the
:43:30. > :43:34.moment. It is very much for joining us.
:43:35. > :43:39.We have heard a lot from the so-called bigger guns but there are
:43:40. > :43:47.lots of smaller parties seeking your vote. None of them have yet to win a
:43:48. > :43:50.seat in Cardiff Bay but they fight on. We have been speaking to the
:43:51. > :43:53.parties fielding candidates in each of the five regions across Wales.
:43:54. > :43:56.The 60 Assembly Members elected on 5th May will meet here
:43:57. > :43:59.But if the Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party win seats,
:44:00. > :44:02.they won't want to be here at all but will fight to close
:44:03. > :44:10.The Assembly now wants more powers, they want more Assembly Members,
:44:11. > :44:16.a pay rise, tax-raising powers and a separate legal system.
:44:17. > :44:28.The Welsh Office and our 40 MPs in Westminster do the job perfectly
:44:29. > :44:35.Anything that needs to be devolved, any issues, we say devolve it
:44:36. > :44:48.The crisis in the steel industry has arguably overshadowed the Assembly
:44:49. > :44:51.election campaign and focussed the minds of politicians and candidates.
:44:52. > :44:54.The Welsh Communist Party wants the next Welsh Government
:44:55. > :44:57.to nationalise the steel industry and are calling
:44:58. > :45:00.on Labour supporters to give their second vote
:45:01. > :45:06.The Communists argue that Labour won only two seats across all five
:45:07. > :45:10.regions five years ago and, if Labour supporters want to see more
:45:11. > :45:13.Socialists in the Assembly after 5th May, then they should vote
:45:14. > :45:19.There's so much that could be done with a thoroughly modernised steel
:45:20. > :45:22.industry but we don't have those resources at the moment.
:45:23. > :45:25.Only the Communist Party in Wales is standing
:45:26. > :45:28.in this election, not only for a Welsh Assembly and government
:45:29. > :45:33.with real powers and resources to make a big difference,
:45:34. > :45:35.but we believe that this needs to take place within a federal
:45:36. > :45:39.Britain so that the wealth that is currently hoarded by the
:45:40. > :45:45.wealthiest 10% of the population, to avoid paying their taxes, would be
:45:46. > :45:53.redistributed to all the nations and regions and the peoples Britain.
:45:54. > :45:57.The Monster Raving Loony Party have launched a so-called manic-festo
:45:58. > :46:05.Policies include re-routing any more M4 relief roads to boost
:46:06. > :46:07.tourism in Porthcawl, Tenby, and even
:46:08. > :46:11.If they win seats here in Cardiff Bay, they would work to
:46:12. > :46:14.introduce mermaids to the bay itself and they are calling on people
:46:15. > :46:20.We are offering an alternative for people and we say they usually
:46:21. > :46:27.If you don't like what is being offered in the mainstream,
:46:28. > :46:32.We will be on everybody's ballott paper down the bottom.
:46:33. > :46:35.to vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party
:46:36. > :46:37.with our great manifesto ideas that we have.
:46:38. > :46:40.Several of the Monster Raving Loony Party's over the years have actually
:46:41. > :46:43.been developed and brought through into mainstream politics.
:46:44. > :46:47.We were the first party to consider whether
:46:48. > :46:51.The first party to bring pets' passports
:46:52. > :46:58.And the first party that has brought about independent radio.
:46:59. > :47:01.So lots of our ideas, actually, they take time, but they do come
:47:02. > :47:06.There are plenty of people and parties after your votes.
:47:07. > :47:17.There is a full list on the BBC Wales election website.
:47:18. > :47:25.In the last of our interviews with the main parties about the
:47:26. > :47:35.manifestos, Liber's Carwyn Andrews is here. It is not a huge document.
:47:36. > :47:41.110 pages in 2011 but this year just 24 pages with many pictures.
:47:42. > :47:48.Why has it got shorter? We have gone digital first and that is how the
:47:49. > :47:54.next government will be. Our manifesto is a digital manifesto and
:47:55. > :47:59.we produced a shorter version for printing.
:48:00. > :48:04.There are far fewer policy ideas than previous manifestos.
:48:05. > :48:14.It is focused on a number of very important and exciting pledges.
:48:15. > :48:21.Childcare is the most exciting offer in the UK. That goes beyond any
:48:22. > :48:25.other offer from another party. Looking at other top line messages,
:48:26. > :48:36.this new treatment fund to give that access to new drugs. The independent
:48:37. > :48:42.body Nice decide whether drugs go into the NHS. What will change?
:48:43. > :48:46.This is an important commitment and goes beyond what other parties are
:48:47. > :48:50.promising. It repeatedly said it is not to buy drugs but about
:48:51. > :48:56.treatments. We want to ensure that we are able to offer support to
:48:57. > :49:01.people with life-threatening diseases, not just cancer, but also
:49:02. > :49:05.that is about treatment. Through this fund, will be able to support
:49:06. > :49:13.the health board and others in developing what is necessary.
:49:14. > :49:21.Part of the problem is that patients from Wales have gone into England,
:49:22. > :49:24.particularly cancer patients. There is a drug to be introduced later
:49:25. > :49:31.this year and that was to be the case because there will be drugs in
:49:32. > :49:41.England not available in Wales. Only for those drugs which are
:49:42. > :49:49.approved by Nice. The process is in England are being
:49:50. > :49:54.merged with the Nice process. People travel to Wales as well so it is not
:49:55. > :49:59.a one-way street. We are putting in place a radical proposal for
:50:00. > :50:02.treatment fund. It is not about the drugs, it's also about new
:50:03. > :50:06.treatments that are come on stream. My point is very specific, that
:50:07. > :50:08.those people who have had to travel to England to get those cancer
:50:09. > :50:13.drugs. Have to do the same. There are
:50:14. > :50:17.cancer drugs available in Wales that are not available in England. You
:50:18. > :50:22.should not why the Conservative began that on this issue. Recruiting
:50:23. > :50:24.a new fund that will be for broader than the scheme and Ingrid which has
:50:25. > :50:36.failed and is being closed that down.
:50:37. > :50:41.-- closed in England. Apprenticeships, of the past five
:50:42. > :50:47.years to have construed on all the higher level qualifications.
:50:48. > :50:55.Why the switch? We have been very successful. We have had better
:50:56. > :50:59.apprenticeship levels. We are proud of that.
:51:00. > :51:04.Why change it? We believe there is a gap and people
:51:05. > :51:11.want to retrain. That has always been the case.
:51:12. > :51:18.We met people at the college the other day at different stages in
:51:19. > :51:27.wanting to go into. It is a major step, a radical step, and as proving
:51:28. > :51:33.popular with employers. The tuition free grant sees the
:51:34. > :51:38.Welsh Government pay ?5,000 towards expenses. We have discussed the
:51:39. > :51:42.merits and otherwise have that many times. In this manifesto, there is
:51:43. > :51:46.hardly anything about what you will do in future. All you are seeing is
:51:47. > :51:51.a better package and then offer in England. But didn't do anything they
:51:52. > :51:54.are so are seeing better than nothing.
:51:55. > :52:07.Let me give you this commitment. We know that Plaid Cymru will make
:52:08. > :52:12.students pay ?9,000 tuition fees. We will not do that. We will listen to
:52:13. > :52:19.what the Diamond cap review has to say. The First Minister does not
:52:20. > :52:25.like the idea of means testing. What we are going to do is taking forward
:52:26. > :52:30.the scheme that we have which is saved Welsh graduates ?22,000 hit on
:52:31. > :52:36.average. We are making a commitment we will not charge will students
:52:37. > :52:38.?9,000 in a university fees unlike Plaid Cymru.
:52:39. > :52:41.What you're seeing as there is a review coming back in September and
:52:42. > :52:46.you will be to see what that review tells you to do.
:52:47. > :52:50.The higher education sector needs to be able to demonstrate...
:52:51. > :52:54.But you are not... We know that the scheme we have at
:52:55. > :53:00.the moment is cheaper than we feel that the moment when we launched it.
:53:01. > :53:06.It is for others to make the case for change and we will look at the
:53:07. > :53:11.review. We need to be able to demonstrate that Wells students can
:53:12. > :53:16.study every subject. You can discuss the merits or
:53:17. > :53:19.otherwise of other parties and you can discuss, I would rather we
:53:20. > :53:24.don't. But they at least have policies on offer.
:53:25. > :53:29.We need to see what the review has to say. We will consider that. We
:53:30. > :53:35.have said we will not ask students to pay ?9,000.
:53:36. > :53:42.The review published hundreds of pages of statistics and documents, a
:53:43. > :53:44.treasure trove of information. It is therefore used to base your policies
:53:45. > :53:48.on but you're shying away from information.
:53:49. > :53:52.I don't think we are. We don't know what the UK Government are going to
:53:53. > :53:57.do in regards to funding in England. It may be that the University of
:53:58. > :54:02.Bristol and Manchester is able to charge higher fees. That would
:54:03. > :54:08.affect the body. But we are not going to make wealth should -- Welsh
:54:09. > :54:15.students pay ?9,000. That is all from us. Don't forget
:54:16. > :54:23.the special leaders debate on Wednesday. For now, that is all from
:54:24. > :54:23.me. Thank you for watching and now time to
:54:24. > :54:25.me. Thank you for watching and now time
:54:26. > :54:29.You can see a full list of all the candidates standing
:54:30. > :54:31.in the Mayoral election on the screen now.
:54:32. > :54:33.And further information is available on the BBC London website.
:54:34. > :54:38.Now, the Home Secretary has made her first major intervention
:54:39. > :54:42.She was on Andrew Marr this morning, speaking up for Remain.
:54:43. > :54:45.She was asked how immigration could be controlled if we stay
:54:46. > :54:50.Nobody who has heard me over the last few
:54:51. > :54:51.years can doubt that I
:54:52. > :54:54.think we need to control immigration.
:54:55. > :55:00.Controlling it is hard, and it's hard whether we are inside the
:55:01. > :55:05.It's hard dealing with EU migration or
:55:06. > :55:08.Harder to deal if we are still inside.
:55:09. > :55:10.Immigration is going to
:55:11. > :55:13.carry on rising very sharply if we stay inside the EU, isn't it?
:55:14. > :55:15.The thing about immigration is, it is
:55:16. > :55:23.as a government, say, we are going to change this one rule
:55:24. > :55:25.and suddenly the result is going to be what we want.
:55:26. > :55:28.You have constantly to be working at it, which is exactly what
:55:29. > :55:40.The Home Secretary having trouble getting a clear-cut answer. The
:55:41. > :55:45.Leave campaign thinks immigration has its strongest card, why isn't it
:55:46. > :55:49.making more of it? I think it is a while since the strong card within a
:55:50. > :55:53.certain group of the electorate, it also backfires with another one and
:55:54. > :55:58.that has gone to the heart of a lot of disagreement that has been all
:55:59. > :56:02.the way through the last few months between the rival Brexit camps. One
:56:03. > :56:07.side of those camps thinks they should go very hard on immigration,
:56:08. > :56:18.they think it is a banker for them, the other groups are actually this
:56:19. > :56:20.deters as many people from our case as it attracts so there is a real
:56:21. > :56:23.tension there. That may be the issue. My understanding is that
:56:24. > :56:26.polling shows immigration really resonates with those who have
:56:27. > :56:30.already made up their mind to leave but for those who are still not
:56:31. > :56:39.sure, it doesn't get them to come on board. Yes, the levers of Vote Leave
:56:40. > :56:45.-- leaders have been clear since the moment they set up shop that they
:56:46. > :56:48.should talk about immigration, that if they defined their campaign on
:56:49. > :56:54.immigration they would lose, simple as that because you are simply
:56:55. > :57:01.talking to up to 30% of the electorate who have already made up
:57:02. > :57:05.their minds. And Matthew Elliott has been clear all along their campaign
:57:06. > :57:08.has got to be defined on the economy, on security, and they have
:57:09. > :57:14.got to show their option is the safest option and that staying
:57:15. > :57:17.inside the EU is the risky one. They have headlines today saying the Home
:57:18. > :57:22.Secretary has admitted we cannot have full control of our borders but
:57:23. > :57:25.watch them, they will be moving back to Obama and the economy because
:57:26. > :57:30.that is the area from which they only have a chance of winning. The
:57:31. > :57:40.consensus view seems to be that it was a bad week for Leave. What will
:57:41. > :57:44.they do now? I think they need to make some impact with something
:57:45. > :57:51.spectacular, different. You feel they have run out of momentum. They
:57:52. > :57:56.had a terrific dart, with huge names like Michael Gove and Boris Johnson,
:57:57. > :58:02.and that then seemed to be it. Every week the Remain campaign have
:58:03. > :58:06.treated this like a Lynton Crosby style general election campaign.
:58:07. > :58:14.They are totally owning the agenda, which begs the question why put out
:58:15. > :58:19.Theresa May today? Why would you want to slip that in? Maybe because
:58:20. > :58:25.they think the Obama coverage will cover that up. I think Leave Haft to
:58:26. > :58:33.concentrate on immigration now. Do you think that puts people off as
:58:34. > :58:36.well? It may well but it is their strongest suit and they do have a
:58:37. > :58:40.huge amount of support on what they are saying about immigration across
:58:41. > :58:45.the country. If you have one big weapon, you have got to keep firing
:58:46. > :58:50.it. Were you surprised that Dominic Rabb didn't just rule out the idea
:58:51. > :58:56.of visas? I was actually, I'm not sure how that will go down among the
:58:57. > :59:01.Leave campaigners. I think it will be picked up that the Remain
:59:02. > :59:05.campaign will run with that, but to follow on from what Tom was saying
:59:06. > :59:10.about what Leave should do this week, I think they have got to nail
:59:11. > :59:15.this ongoing claim that the alt campaigners cannot explain what out
:59:16. > :59:21.looks like. It is very lazy criticism but quite an effective one
:59:22. > :59:25.that they cannot come up with some kind of model and it is difficult
:59:26. > :59:28.for them to prove a negative. But they need to start some kind of
:59:29. > :59:34.language which ridicules the suggestion that they cannot come up
:59:35. > :59:40.with a comparable... This is Norway or whatever. I think you need more
:59:41. > :59:44.Michael Gove and less Boris Johnson. Michael Gove made a significant
:59:45. > :59:47.speech in the week in which he said the optimistic case is to leave the
:59:48. > :59:53.European Union because he was saying Britain could have a great future
:59:54. > :59:55.outside the European Union and the Remain people are pessimistic
:59:56. > :00:03.because they are saying we have got to be part of this club. What do you
:00:04. > :00:10.get from Boris Johnson? Raising questions about whether he was being
:00:11. > :00:19.racist against the President of the United States. Voters don't like
:00:20. > :00:25.that. What voters like is optimism and substance, and that is what
:00:26. > :00:28.Michael Gove is doing. Also their big problem, absolutely part of
:00:29. > :00:32.their strategy is not to spell out what Leave looks like in any detail
:00:33. > :00:40.because they don't want to make the same mistake that Alex Salmond did,
:00:41. > :00:46.they want to give no detail at all. Then nobody can never come back
:00:47. > :00:51.about it. Michael Howard said it won't be the Norway deal, it won't
:00:52. > :00:55.be the Swiss deal, it will be the British Steel, the fifth largest
:00:56. > :00:59.economy in the world. It takes the president of the US to put trade
:01:00. > :01:05.deals into the headlines, you don't often get that, and he said if we
:01:06. > :01:10.weren't part of an EU deal, we would go to the back of the queue. Tom,
:01:11. > :01:15.you think he has already stepped back a bit from that quite blunt
:01:16. > :01:23.statement? It was interesting, the Hugh Edwards interview, which was
:01:24. > :01:30.very saccharine stuff. It got some good news headlines. I would like to
:01:31. > :01:34.see you up against him. If we have a special relationship, why do we go
:01:35. > :01:40.to the back of the queue? And Obama pointedly didn't be that. I think it
:01:41. > :01:44.was a misstep. I was sitting in the Foreign Office behind Number Ten
:01:45. > :01:48.officials on Friday when trade started coming up and you could see
:01:49. > :01:53.them shuffling. When he said the back of the queue comment, they
:01:54. > :01:58.turned around and said that is your intro, which made me think they
:01:59. > :02:04.didn't know that was coming either. I wonder if it isn't a paper tiger.
:02:05. > :02:09.The fact is there is no deal between the EU and the USA. They started
:02:10. > :02:14.talks in 2013, they are meeting in New York tomorrow for the 13th
:02:15. > :02:17.round, speaking to contacts in Washington they say there is no
:02:18. > :02:23.prospect of any ratification of the deal by this Congress. We will be
:02:24. > :02:27.lucky to get it signed before Obama steps down in January 2017, and
:02:28. > :02:37.there are now protests growing everywhere. We have pictures of
:02:38. > :02:40.demonstrations in Germany yesterday, there is a head of steam building up
:02:41. > :02:49.against it and it may not even happen. The hope of the Brexit
:02:50. > :02:53.campaigners will be that this Barack Obama comment backfires. Even if
:02:54. > :02:57.there were a queue, are we to really believe America is so short of
:02:58. > :03:01.tremendous negotiators that there is a limited number of personal
:03:02. > :03:08.available to actually make further deals? I think it is an extremely
:03:09. > :03:13.thin argument. Additionally we know that America sells us something like
:03:14. > :03:14.$56 billion worth of goods, are we really to believe they will somehow
:03:15. > :03:25.throw with that to the wind? Even without free trade, we are the
:03:26. > :03:30.big as in -- the biggest investors in America. There are 1 million
:03:31. > :03:34.Brits employed by American companies here. The US election campaign has
:03:35. > :03:40.become increasingly isolationist or stop not just Bernie Sanders and
:03:41. > :03:43.Donald Trump, or even Ted Cruz, but now Hillary Clinton has come out
:03:44. > :03:51.against the Pacific trade deal, which is ahead of the queue -- is
:03:52. > :03:58.ahead of the European one. The problem with Clinton is that it was
:03:59. > :04:01.on her husband's watch that NAFTA was signed, the North American Free
:04:02. > :04:05.Trade Agreement. The argument is that all those jobs in Detroit went
:04:06. > :04:08.south to Mexico, and the Clinton brand has been badly damaged by
:04:09. > :04:13.that. She has always had to walk away from that. I don't believe that
:04:14. > :04:18.Hillary Clinton as president would be isolationist. The thing about
:04:19. > :04:25.Arak Obama is that this queue may not exist, but the United States
:04:26. > :04:29.likes to deal with regional blocs, not individual countries. One of the
:04:30. > :04:37.big challenges for Brexit is that the EU minus us is 440 million
:04:38. > :04:42.people. How important are we? There is no doubt that Obama's impact here
:04:43. > :04:49.will be big, because the Leave campaign say, when we leave the EU,
:04:50. > :04:52.we will replace any lost trade with greater trade deals with other
:04:53. > :04:56.countries that the EU stopped us from signing, such as America pulls
:04:57. > :05:04.up or bar masses, no you want. Hillary Clinton says, you certainly
:05:05. > :05:10.won't. -- President Obama says. As I look at it, it is on both the
:05:11. > :05:14.Democratic left and the Republic right, that it may become more
:05:15. > :05:19.difficult not to Britain but for anyone to do trade deals with
:05:20. > :05:25.America. America does what is in its interest. The most significant thing
:05:26. > :05:32.about Arak Obama 's remarks was homelike king Ince bestial qualities
:05:33. > :05:38.our relationship is. Didn't he make a joke about us having to sell an
:05:39. > :05:43.electric chair to the United States? The great height of our special
:05:44. > :05:47.relationship was all about pounds, shillings and pence. Someone who
:05:48. > :05:50.follows -- as someone who follows trade talks, I am grateful to the
:05:51. > :05:57.president for bringing it to the front of the agenda.
:05:58. > :06:04.The junior doctors' strike is due this week. It is only in England,
:06:05. > :06:12.but the Labour Party has come up with a suggested compromise, let's
:06:13. > :06:17.pilot the plan. There we go, Labour steps in to halt doctors' strike.
:06:18. > :06:20.People might think, that is not a bad idea, let's see if it works. I
:06:21. > :06:27.would be surprised if Jeremy Hunt went for that. He would say, here is
:06:28. > :06:31.the deal, you must accept it. The BMA and the Labour Party don't
:06:32. > :06:33.really want this to go ahead. The second they start withdrawing
:06:34. > :06:41.doctors and people start dying because of it, they are in trouble
:06:42. > :06:47.in terms of public support. It is worth asking why they did not pilot
:06:48. > :06:51.it first. Jeremy Corbyn is in a corner on this, for all the right
:06:52. > :06:54.reasons. He agrees that a seven-day service is needed. I think the
:06:55. > :07:01.junior doctors have done themselves no favours by being as dogmatic as
:07:02. > :07:05.they have been. Mr Hunt hasn't done himself any favours, either. He
:07:06. > :07:11.believes that what he is doing is in the interest of patients. I expect
:07:12. > :07:20.him to hold the line. Syriza May was saying, it is being piloted with
:07:21. > :07:26.20,000 -- to Reza may.... The Home Secretary is saying it is being
:07:27. > :07:31.piloted with 20,000 doctors. I am not sure that Jeremy Hunt would want
:07:32. > :07:35.an independent forensic examination. Do you agree that if the strike goes
:07:36. > :07:40.ahead it starts to go the Government's way? Absolutely. Jeremy
:07:41. > :07:44.Hunt knows that he just needs to sit pretty and not worry too much about
:07:45. > :07:52.these last-minute offers. Tomorrow will be a fascinating day. We will
:07:53. > :07:57.find out before the strike begins which side will blink. If we are
:07:58. > :08:02.looking at a complete withdrawal of labour from doctors,, it is
:08:03. > :08:07.something that has never happened before in this country and it could
:08:08. > :08:12.be disastrous in terms of deaths. The blame will fall squarely on the
:08:13. > :08:20.shoulders of the doctors. We shall see. We have marked this week as
:08:21. > :08:26.another bad week for Remain. We should market every week and -- we
:08:27. > :08:28.should mark it every week and see what happens.
:08:29. > :08:32.We'll be back at the usual time of 11am next Sunday,
:08:33. > :08:36.and the Daily Politics is on at lunchtime all next week
:08:37. > :08:39.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.