:00:38. > :00:43.Jeremy Corbyn struggles to get a grip on the turmoil inside his
:00:44. > :00:47.party after Ken Livingstone's comments on Hitler and Zionism.
:00:48. > :00:49.But will the Labour leader's latest anti-semitism review draw
:00:50. > :00:57.Despite demands he should be booted out, Mr Livingstone insists he'll
:00:58. > :01:00.fight to stay in the party, and refuses to apologise for saying
:01:01. > :01:07.We'll discuss the implications for Labour and its leader.
:01:08. > :01:12.The row comes just days before Thursday's elections across the UK.
:01:13. > :01:19.Later in the programme. leader Tim Farron and
:01:20. > :01:22.Who will get in, and who will be kicked out?
:01:23. > :01:24.Just a few days before the polls open,
:01:25. > :01:28.what kind of Assembly are we going to get on Thursday?
:01:29. > :01:38.The Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith will be here to set out
:01:39. > :01:40.why he should be London now. -- mayor.
:01:41. > :01:43.And with me for the duration - Nick Watt, Janan Ganesh
:01:44. > :01:46.They'll all be tweeting using the hashtag #bbcsp.
:01:47. > :01:49.This time last week Jeremy Corbyn was in a pretty good place.
:01:50. > :01:51.He'd put in a decent performance at PMQs,
:01:52. > :01:57.the Tories were ripping themselves apart over the EU referendum
:01:58. > :02:01.and any Labour rows seemed small beer in comparison.
:02:02. > :02:03.But that was before the Guido Fawkes political blog uncovered
:02:04. > :02:09.anti-Semitic tweets from a novice Labour backbencher called Naz Shah -
:02:10. > :02:13.made before she was an MP - and Ken Livingstone called Hitler
:02:14. > :02:19.in her aid - perhaps not the most helpful of modern
:02:20. > :02:21.political interventions - leading to his suspension,
:02:22. > :02:24.along with Ms Shah's from the party and calls for him to be
:02:25. > :02:28.So what might have been no more than a little local difficulty has
:02:29. > :02:31.become the biggest crisis in Mr Corbyn's leadership.
:02:32. > :02:36.Here's Ellie with a reminder of how the story unfolded.
:02:37. > :02:39.I accept and understand that the words are used caused upset
:02:40. > :02:43.and hurt to the Jewish community, and I deeply regret that.
:02:44. > :02:51.Naz Shah was apologising for this - a Facebook post that suggested
:02:52. > :02:57.She'd shared it and other offensive comments two years ago.
:02:58. > :03:00.On Tuesday afternoon she resigned as Parliamentary Private Secretary
:03:01. > :03:02.to the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.
:03:03. > :03:09.The next day a fellow shadow frontbencher was calling
:03:10. > :03:14.There has to be a suspension and an investigation when something
:03:15. > :03:17.like this occurs, because it is so serious and it does have such
:03:18. > :03:20.a knock on effect on people outside of parliament, in the real world.
:03:21. > :03:23.Moments later, the Prime Minister waded in.
:03:24. > :03:26.The fact that, frankly, we have a Labour Member
:03:27. > :03:28.of Parliament, with the Labour Whip, who made remarks about
:03:29. > :03:33.the transportation of people from Israel to America and talked
:03:34. > :03:36.about "a solution", and is still in receipt of the Labour whip
:03:37. > :03:40.After hours of speculation, Naz Shah, who was only elected
:03:41. > :03:42.last year, was suspended from the Labour Party
:03:43. > :03:48.But if the Labour leadership had hoped it would draw
:03:49. > :03:51.a line under the issue, they were sorely disappointed,
:03:52. > :03:53.because the next day, this happened...
:03:54. > :03:55.You didn't find that to be anti-Semitic?
:03:56. > :04:01.You have to remember, when Hitler won his election
:04:02. > :04:04.in 1932 his policy then was Jews should be moved to Israel.
:04:05. > :04:07.He was supporting Zionism, before he went mad and ended up
:04:08. > :04:15.You Nazi apologist, you Nazi apologisist.
:04:16. > :04:16.Rewriting history, rewriting history!
:04:17. > :04:23.Go back and check what Hitler did, go back and check what Hitler did.
:04:24. > :04:26.There was a book called Mein Kampf, you obviously haven't heard of it.
:04:27. > :04:28.Ken Livingstone was on the phone to another radio station
:04:29. > :04:32.when he got interrupted by the Labour MP John Mann.
:04:33. > :04:35.Watched by most of the country's media, they took it inside
:04:36. > :04:38.and continued their interesting difference of opinion
:04:39. > :04:44.You dare say, you dare say Hitler supported Zionism.
:04:45. > :04:49.I think you've lost it, Mr Livingstone.
:04:50. > :04:54.It's a deliberate, calculated attempt to cause problems,
:04:55. > :05:00.You certainly shouldn't be an Labour's National Executive.
:05:01. > :05:04.I've not said Hitler was a Zionist, what I said was his policy in '32
:05:05. > :05:06.was to deport Germany's Jews to Israel.
:05:07. > :05:11.John Mann was called to the Chief Whip's office for that
:05:12. > :05:14.and told he shouldn't have big rows on the telly.
:05:15. > :05:18.Other MPs voiced their opinion in Parliament instead.
:05:19. > :05:22.Anti-Semitism is wrong, full stop, end of story.
:05:23. > :05:26.I am sick and tired of people trying to explain it away -
:05:27. > :05:29.and yes - I'm talking to you, Ken Livingstone.
:05:30. > :05:31.Less than an hour later Ken Livingstone was suspended
:05:32. > :05:34.from the Labour Party, and chased by the media.
:05:35. > :05:36.Do you want to apologise for causing any offence?
:05:37. > :05:44.While Ken was indisposed, Jeremy Corbyn was trying not to let
:05:45. > :05:47.the issue occupy his local election campaigning, even if he had been
:05:48. > :05:51.forced to suspend one of his closest allies.
:05:52. > :05:54.It's not a crisis, there is no crisis.
:05:55. > :05:57.Where there is any racism in the party, it will be dealt with,
:05:58. > :06:03.I have been an anti-racist campaigner all my life.
:06:04. > :06:08.I suspect that much of this criticism, that you're saying
:06:09. > :06:10.about a crisis in the party, actually comes from those
:06:11. > :06:13.who are nervous of the strength of the Labour Party at local level.
:06:14. > :06:16.But it has been a damaging week for Labour, whose leadership
:06:17. > :06:18.promised to get a grip on anti-Semitism.
:06:19. > :06:21.Ken Livingstone insisted he had nothing more to say.
:06:22. > :06:25.I've got to do the washing now, doing some work on the pond,
:06:26. > :06:35.Well, Ken Livingstone didn't stay quiet for long.
:06:36. > :06:37.In fact yesterday morning he appeared on the London radio
:06:38. > :06:46.After the broadcast, he had this to say to
:06:47. > :06:50.If people have been offended, I'm really sorry about that.
:06:51. > :06:52.But they're not offended because I said the truth,
:06:53. > :06:55.exactly the same thing as the Prime Minister of Israel said
:06:56. > :06:57.48 hours earlier, they've been offended by the scrutiny
:06:58. > :07:01.of embittered old Blairite MPs stirring up all these
:07:02. > :07:05.accusations of anti-Semitism, when I said on the programme 80
:07:06. > :07:07.Labour Party Jewish members have a letter in the Guardian
:07:08. > :07:08.today saying they've never experienced anti-Semitism.
:07:09. > :07:11.We've had a handful of people who have said things
:07:12. > :07:15.They have been suspended or expelled immediately by Jeremy.
:07:16. > :07:22.It is filled with people campaigning against racism and anti-Semitism.
:07:23. > :07:24.Speaking on BBC One earlier this morning,
:07:25. > :07:27.the new Israeli Ambassador to the UK, Mark Regev,
:07:28. > :07:30.said a line has been crossed in the anti-semitism row
:07:31. > :07:37.Of course people have the right to criticise the government of Israel -
:07:38. > :07:45.If you follow the very vigorous public debates
:07:46. > :07:47.we have in my country, you'll know that every
:07:48. > :07:49.government position is open to debate in the parliament,
:07:50. > :07:51.in the press, in a very, very robust civil society.
:07:52. > :07:53.It's not about criticising Israel, it's about demonising
:07:54. > :07:57.The comments we've heard over the last two or three weeks
:07:58. > :08:01.that were made public, it has nothing to do
:08:02. > :08:04.with criticising this or that particular Israeli policy -
:08:05. > :08:06.it's demonising and a vilification of my country, and its
:08:07. > :08:16.But Jeremy Corbyn's close ally Diane Abbott told Andrew Marr
:08:17. > :08:20.that Labour doesn't have a problem with anti-semitism.
:08:21. > :08:25.The reality is that there have been 12 for incidents in the period
:08:26. > :08:27.when Jeremy's leader, and some of those remarks predate
:08:28. > :08:30.200,000 people have joined the party.
:08:31. > :08:37.What is your message to him now, should he apologise properly?
:08:38. > :08:39.Have you ever known Ken apologise for anything?
:08:40. > :08:42.No, but this might be the time to start!
:08:43. > :08:45.Ken's remarks were extremely offensive.
:08:46. > :08:48.He was suspended within hours, there's going to be an investigation
:08:49. > :08:56.and the party will decide what happens to Ken.
:08:57. > :08:59.We did ask the Labour Party for an interview with someone
:09:00. > :09:03.from the Shadow Cabinet, but no one was available.
:09:04. > :09:05.We're joined now from Exeter by the former Labour culture
:09:06. > :09:20.Welcome to the programme. In your view how big a problem does Labour
:09:21. > :09:24.have with anti-Semitism? Well, in a week where the Conservatives are
:09:25. > :09:26.doing terrible damage to our education system, the National
:09:27. > :09:29.Health Service and are themselves apart on Europe, I would not want to
:09:30. > :09:33.be on your programme on Sunday talking about this. In a way I agree
:09:34. > :09:37.with Diane Abbott, I don't think we have a massive problem but the way
:09:38. > :09:41.we have mishandled this whole crisis, which has been going on for
:09:42. > :09:44.weeks, although Ken Livingstone has done his best to make it worse, the
:09:45. > :09:51.way we have handled the crisis has made it seem worse than it is. What
:09:52. > :09:54.do you make of Ken Livingstone's claim this is just basically a group
:09:55. > :09:58.of embittered old Blairite MPs trying to undermine the new order?
:09:59. > :10:03.I've seen you would include you in that.
:10:04. > :10:10.One of the first people to call for Ken Livingstone to leave the party
:10:11. > :10:15.was John Lassman, the head of Momentum, on the hard left. I think
:10:16. > :10:20.the popular left-wing commentator Owen Jones was also very quick to
:10:21. > :10:27.call for Ken Livingstone's resignation so to try to describe
:10:28. > :10:32.this as some Blairite... , it looks more like some left on left battle.
:10:33. > :10:36.I am increasingly of the view Ken Livingstone is a Conservative Party
:10:37. > :10:40.spy who has been planted in the Labour Party and has now emerged to
:10:41. > :10:44.do as much damage as he possibly can to the Labour Party. That is
:10:45. > :10:48.certainly the view of my loyal Labour Party members and activists
:10:49. > :10:52.and voters who came up to me asking what was going on. They were
:10:53. > :10:57.outraged by his comments and defeat comes back into the party, they
:10:58. > :11:00.won't vote for the party. Jeremy has finally gripped it this week with
:11:01. > :11:10.the inquiry but we have got to act quickly and decisively. Has Jeremy
:11:11. > :11:14.Corbyn let it drag on? There have been very sensible voices across the
:11:15. > :11:19.political spectrum in the Labour Party who, for several weeks if not
:11:20. > :11:22.months, have been raising concerns about this and calling for quite
:11:23. > :11:26.simple and sensible solutions to wait. I think if they had been
:11:27. > :11:36.listened to earlier, we could have nipped this problem in the bud. I
:11:37. > :11:41.hope it has now been gripped but it will be judged on what we do.
:11:42. > :11:45.Parties are judged on what they do, not what they say. The leadership
:11:46. > :11:52.have said all the right things, we now need to see action. What is the
:11:53. > :11:56.difference between Ken Livingstone's attitude to Israel and the Jews and
:11:57. > :12:02.Jeremy Corbyn's attitude to Israel and the Jews? I'm not quite sure I'm
:12:03. > :12:07.qualified to comment on either of their attitudes to Israel and the
:12:08. > :12:12.Jews. All I know is someone who has been a very strong friend of
:12:13. > :12:16.Palestine, a supporter of the two state solution, the Labour Party has
:12:17. > :12:20.a proud tradition of believing and supporting Israel as a state with
:12:21. > :12:25.the right to exist but I think there is a problem on parts of the left.
:12:26. > :12:33.They don't seem to recognise where criticism... Legitimate criticism
:12:34. > :12:38.crosses over to hatred for Israel and anti-Semitism. The Labour Party
:12:39. > :12:43.supports absolutely Israel's right to exist. We always have and I hope
:12:44. > :12:46.we always will. We also support a Palestinian state and if we allow
:12:47. > :12:50.ourselves to be diverted from that sensible position which is held by
:12:51. > :12:56.all progressives all over the world, that will be a very dangerous path
:12:57. > :12:59.in my view. Are you clear in your mind that Ken Livingstone and Jeremy
:13:00. > :13:07.Corbyn support Israel's right to exist? I cannot speak for them, I
:13:08. > :13:12.can just speak for myself. I am not inside their brains and I think
:13:13. > :13:16.anybody who tried to get inside Ken Livingstone's brain would find that
:13:17. > :13:22.a very challenging process. So you are not sure your leaders support
:13:23. > :13:28.Israel's right to exist? The Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn I am sure
:13:29. > :13:31.100% support Israel's right to exist, but these are questions the
:13:32. > :13:36.leader can speak for on behalf of himself. The chance would be a nice
:13:37. > :13:49.thing but we are grateful to speak to you. In your view, I know there
:13:50. > :13:54.is due process to follow, should Ken Livingstone be rejected from the
:13:55. > :13:57.Labour Party? Countless Labour Party members and supporters came up to me
:13:58. > :14:02.on the streets of Exeter yesterday where we are fighting very important
:14:03. > :14:10.and tough local council elections on Thursday to say that if he came
:14:11. > :14:13.back, they wouldn't vote for us. If he was brought back, what would be
:14:14. > :14:19.the reaction amongst your colleagues? I think they would be
:14:20. > :14:23.dismayed. There is genuine anger about the damage this has done at a
:14:24. > :14:28.time when the Conservatives should be on the ropes. We should be 20%
:14:29. > :14:37.ahead in the opinion polls, we are behind, facing very difficult local
:14:38. > :14:41.elections. We are not being an effective opposition because the
:14:42. > :14:44.talk is all about turmoil in Labour. Labour people are furious about
:14:45. > :14:47.that, they want the leadership to get a grip, they want to be an
:14:48. > :14:52.effective opposition and they want to make sure we win the next
:14:53. > :14:59.election and the elections across the UK and in London. Thanks for
:15:00. > :15:05.joining us. Apologies for the quality of the sound. Nick Watt, how
:15:06. > :15:11.much is this being used by those opposed to Jeremy Corbyn to
:15:12. > :15:15.undermine his leadership? Yes, certainly the majority of the PLP
:15:16. > :15:20.don't support his leadership. A significant number of them would
:15:21. > :15:23.like to get him out, hope to do so after the European referendum. That
:15:24. > :15:26.had appeared to go away and now we have this crisis so maybe it will
:15:27. > :15:31.come back but I think those people who want to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn
:15:32. > :15:36.are not rubbing their hands and saying doesn't this make him look
:15:37. > :15:40.awful. They are, as most people in the Labour Party are, horrified by
:15:41. > :15:43.what this makes the Labour Party look like to the electorate as a
:15:44. > :15:49.whole and would like to deal with it. If you have two senior figures
:15:50. > :15:52.running after each other on stairways, whatever the cause, that
:15:53. > :15:57.looks dreadful for voters but then the issue you are talking about is
:15:58. > :16:02.supremely sensitive issue of anti-Semitism and the people I talk
:16:03. > :16:09.to who want to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn just hate what is going and
:16:10. > :16:13.feel that it is very dangerous and sensitive territory for the Labour
:16:14. > :16:16.Party. Where does it go from here? It depends whether the party decides
:16:17. > :16:23.this is just an embarrassment that can be got over. This is when Jeremy
:16:24. > :16:27.Corbyn's leadership stopped being funny, it is serious and it is not
:16:28. > :16:32.an accident or the mistake of judgment that meant he didn't get
:16:33. > :16:36.rid of Ken Livingstone immediately. They are very old allies, they go
:16:37. > :16:39.back a long way and you have to understand that this juncture of
:16:40. > :16:47.reality, the perception is so confused. I started my life on the
:16:48. > :16:52.Trotskyist left. I knew people, in fact I was in Hornsea when Jeremy
:16:53. > :16:57.Corbyn was on the council there. These people socialise with each
:16:58. > :17:02.other, marry each other, they never go outside of their very closed self
:17:03. > :17:08.referring political activist circle. So that picture that Jeremy Corbyn's
:17:09. > :17:14.first white painted of him standing over a photocopier eating baked
:17:15. > :17:17.beans, we all knew that person in the 1970s. These people live within
:17:18. > :17:23.their closed political frame of reference, that's why there was this
:17:24. > :17:28.horrendous misunderstanding of the significance of what Ken Livingstone
:17:29. > :17:32.had done and said. When they called John Mann in, they insisted the
:17:33. > :17:36.whip's office called him in to be disciplined as if there was some
:17:37. > :17:40.kind of moral equivalence between what Ken Livingstone had said and
:17:41. > :17:43.what John Mann had said in reprimanding him, that is another
:17:44. > :17:49.reflection of how out of touch they are. People will wonder why the
:17:50. > :17:56.Labour Party, which has a long historic track record of fighting
:17:57. > :18:01.racism, introduced legislation going way back to the 1960s on something
:18:02. > :18:08.like this, why does it now have to have an investigation into racism
:18:09. > :18:12.and a code of conduct on racism? Because they have at the very least
:18:13. > :18:16.turned a blind eye to this kind of behaviour, I would imagine for about
:18:17. > :18:20.30 years now. I'm only surprised that other people are surprised by
:18:21. > :18:26.this incident. In the 1980s people like Ken Livingstone were giving
:18:27. > :18:30.views not just on Zionism but on the foreign policy issues that were
:18:31. > :18:35.strident to say the least. When Frank Dobson was installed rather
:18:36. > :18:45.than Ken Livingstone as London mayoral candidate, a huge part of
:18:46. > :18:51.the soft left took Ken's side, now we have this disproportionate
:18:52. > :18:55.punishment of John Mann versus Ken. For a pattern of my lifetime there
:18:56. > :18:58.is an indulgence towards this behaviour and the only surprised
:18:59. > :19:03.that it has taken this amount of time for it to manifest in a crystal
:19:04. > :19:07.clear crisis which I imagine makes the average swing voter look upon
:19:08. > :19:14.Labour as something unpalatable. Will it have an effect on Thursday's
:19:15. > :19:18.elections? Sadiq Khan is nervous it will have an effect on him as the
:19:19. > :19:22.candidate for London mayor. He nominated Jeremy Corbyn but has done
:19:23. > :19:28.a good job of distancing himself from him. And he was one of the
:19:29. > :19:34.first to criticise him. He did it immediately. He is nervous but it is
:19:35. > :19:38.probably too late to affect the campaign. OK.
:19:39. > :19:40.After their disastrous results in last year's General Election,
:19:41. > :19:43.the Liberal Democrats are hoping for some better luck this week.
:19:44. > :19:45.Their leader, Tim Farron, says the local elections are utterly
:19:46. > :19:47.critical for the party's "survival, revival and rebirth",
:19:48. > :19:50.as they go in defending just over 300 seats in England.
:19:51. > :19:53.But has Mr Farron's leadership over the past year made any difference
:19:54. > :19:58.The last general election left the party in a sorry state,
:19:59. > :20:02.going from 57 MPs down to a measly eight.
:20:03. > :20:05.The result caused former leader Nick Clegg to resign the very
:20:06. > :20:08.next day, triggering a party leadership election.
:20:09. > :20:13.Two candidates went head-to-head - the then Party President Tim Farron
:20:14. > :20:19.and former Care Minister Norman Lamb.
:20:20. > :20:27.I am up for this, you are up for this, I am optimistic
:20:28. > :20:31.but it will take hard work and bloody mindedness.
:20:32. > :20:34.Over the last year, it's been an uphill struggle for Mr Farron,
:20:35. > :20:37.having to prove to the political classes that, even with eight MPs,
:20:38. > :20:40.his party is still a force to be reckoned with.
:20:41. > :20:42.Although the Lib Dems successfully used their hundred-odd peers
:20:43. > :20:52.to defeat the Government in the Lords over tax credits, trade
:20:53. > :20:56.union reform and child refugees,
:20:57. > :20:57.Lord Rennard's resignation from the party executive
:20:58. > :21:00.and the legal action over the election of MP
:21:01. > :21:05.Alistair Carmichael only made the journey more challenging.
:21:06. > :21:07.And next week, Mr Farron will once again be put
:21:08. > :21:26.Both the big parties are polling badly, it couldn't be a better time
:21:27. > :21:36.for a Lib Dem could -- come back, could there? You have summed it up
:21:37. > :21:40.very nicely. The general election result last May was obviously
:21:41. > :21:44.devastating, and I am going to argue it was devastating for the country
:21:45. > :21:51.as it was for the Liberal Democrats. You think of these issues going on
:21:52. > :21:53.at the moment, the attack on junior doctors, the Balkanisation, even
:21:54. > :21:58.potential privatisation of our school system across the UK, the
:21:59. > :22:02.heartless approach to orphaned refugees in Europe, and yet we are
:22:03. > :22:06.talking about divisions within the Labour Party. They are indeed the
:22:07. > :22:11.most ineffective official opposition probably in British political
:22:12. > :22:18.history. What would come back look like? It would look like a 50%
:22:19. > :22:21.increase in our membership and gaining more council by-election
:22:22. > :22:25.seats and more votes in those by-elections than any other party,
:22:26. > :22:29.which incidentally is exactly what is happening. There is a real sense
:22:30. > :22:33.we are finding people on the doorsteps being very ready to listen
:22:34. > :22:39.to our message. We have got to fight for attention and to get onto the
:22:40. > :22:44.stage at all. The results last May but us in that position but I am an
:22:45. > :22:56.optimistic kind of person. We have an enormous challenge on our plate,
:22:57. > :22:58.we have a Tory government which is very arrogant, taking for granted
:22:59. > :23:00.the fact they are in office, being all the more arrogance because their
:23:01. > :23:03.official opposition is shambolic, and the desperate need for the good
:23:04. > :23:09.of Britain to be a Liberal Democrat revival. Given that you are doing so
:23:10. > :23:15.well in local government by-elections, you must hope to do
:23:16. > :23:22.much better on Thursday than the 331 English councillors you currently
:23:23. > :23:24.have? I think I would be in dangerous territory if I start
:23:25. > :23:28.giving you figures but I am increasingly confident we will do
:23:29. > :23:33.much better than we did last May. The sense I am getting on the
:23:34. > :23:36.doorstep around the country is positive, people listening. Lots of
:23:37. > :23:40.people who are progressive, centre-left voters who feel utterly
:23:41. > :23:45.disappointed with the Labour Party as a movement at the moment. And
:23:46. > :23:49.many people switched off by the Conservatives, one example of that
:23:50. > :23:54.was a councillor in Yeovil who is a case worker for the Conservative MP
:23:55. > :23:57.there who defected to the Liberal Democrats, actually having to give
:23:58. > :24:06.up her job in the process because she realised that what the Tories
:24:07. > :24:10.were offering last May is not what they are delivering. We have started
:24:11. > :24:15.down the road of serious unfairness, taking money away from people with
:24:16. > :24:22.disability, people dependent on the NHS and care services, and behaving
:24:23. > :24:32.in an inhuman way towards the child refugees. Will you add to your tally
:24:33. > :24:37.of council seats? I hope so. I hope so and I couldn't tell you either
:24:38. > :24:40.way. You have been telling me how good you are doing in the local
:24:41. > :24:46.government by-elections, why wouldn't you do just as well on
:24:47. > :24:49.Thursday? I am telling you things that have happened, I'm not capable
:24:50. > :24:56.of telling you things that will happen. Let me come onto your key
:24:57. > :25:03.message. Your key message for the local elections is you are pledging
:25:04. > :25:06.to fight unnecessary cuts to university services, how credible is
:25:07. > :25:08.that when you spent five years in power with the Tories presiding over
:25:09. > :25:16.these cuts? We spent five years writing the
:25:17. > :25:19.economy and protecting front-line services from those cuts. What
:25:20. > :25:23.happened is over five years we help to get the country in a position
:25:24. > :25:27.where the books were all but balanced. We got to a crossroads
:25:28. > :25:31.where we make a decision as a country, do we carry on cutting or
:25:32. > :25:35.is this the time we say, we have stabilise the financial situation,
:25:36. > :25:39.now it is the time to go easy and to put money into front-line services?
:25:40. > :25:45.You will see at this point in time we have a Conservative government
:25:46. > :25:51.that has chosen to give away tax cuts to the wealthy at a time it is
:25:52. > :25:55.passing on cuts through local government to social services, to
:25:56. > :26:00.schools, highways and so on. We say politics is about choosing. At this
:26:01. > :26:03.point, having got the economy from the brink, this is the point of
:26:04. > :26:07.government, and if the Liberal Democrats are in government, we
:26:08. > :26:11.would be choosing not to give tax cuts to the wealthy but supporting
:26:12. > :26:17.public services such as those run by local authorities. When you were in
:26:18. > :26:23.power, in government, you close to 350 libraries, closed 350 youth
:26:24. > :26:28.centres and around 600 sure start centres. Now you are posed as the
:26:29. > :26:32.anti-cuts party, no one will believe you? When we were in government we
:26:33. > :26:39.prevented the Conservatives making far greater cuts. One of the great
:26:40. > :26:43.sadness is for me, or an irony is it has taken the last 12 months of
:26:44. > :26:51.seeing what the Conservatives do without us to see what a difference
:26:52. > :26:55.we made. They managed to do that with you in power. And now you are
:26:56. > :27:01.trying to tell the voters who are against all these cuts, cuts you
:27:02. > :27:05.presided over in government. I am not Jeremy Corbyn, I won't come onto
:27:06. > :27:08.this programme and say you never need to make tough decisions in
:27:09. > :27:13.government. We were very clear over those five years we were acting in
:27:14. > :27:16.the national interest to balance those books.
:27:17. > :27:25.Whether you blame Labour or the banks, the mess was there. We
:27:26. > :27:29.responded responsibly. But one of the issues we should be talking more
:27:30. > :27:34.about this week but sadly Labour's internal divisions has taken it off
:27:35. > :27:37.the front pages is the junior doctors scandal. Remember, just over
:27:38. > :27:40.a year ago it was my colleague Norman Lamb who prevented that
:27:41. > :27:44.contract being written in the first place. It was only the Conservatives
:27:45. > :27:48.getting into power on their own without us which meant they pushed
:27:49. > :27:53.forward on that cart to our national health service. If forcing of
:27:54. > :27:57.schools to turn into academies, something we blocked. Further cuts
:27:58. > :28:00.to the police, we blocked, the Conservatives are now putting in
:28:01. > :28:05.place. We were the party that believed we should live within our
:28:06. > :28:10.means, in our ability to fund public services on the basis of how wealthy
:28:11. > :28:14.the country is. Over five tough years the Liberal Democrats helped
:28:15. > :28:18.balance the books and get us out of the financial crisis. We say you
:28:19. > :28:25.don't then make more cuts you don't need to. You didn't lose the books,
:28:26. > :28:31.Mr Farron. You left behind a deficit of about ?80 billion. Let me just
:28:32. > :28:36.finally ask you this, you have five members in Holyrood, five in the
:28:37. > :28:45.cabinet is amply, two in the London assembly. Of the seats up for grabs,
:28:46. > :28:48.three and 31 councillors. If you don't improve in at least a couple
:28:49. > :28:55.of these areas, does your leadership come under pressure, doesn't have
:28:56. > :28:58.consequences for you? -- 331 councillors. You set out the case
:28:59. > :29:01.clearly at the beginning of this interview, in the last couple of
:29:02. > :29:07.months we have been coming back from a devastating result for us. I don't
:29:08. > :29:11.expect it to be an overnight success, but my sense is as I have
:29:12. > :29:15.been knocking on doors is you find a warming towards a Liberal Democrat
:29:16. > :29:19.message. A sense if you vote Liberal Democrat, makes a difference. That
:29:20. > :29:24.you have people working on the ground in your local community to
:29:25. > :29:28.get things done. So you will do better? I just want to know if you
:29:29. > :29:32.will do better or not? I am no more others since sales and new, but I'm
:29:33. > :29:38.optimistic about how we will do this week. It feels more positive than a
:29:39. > :29:42.year ago. With a shocking Tory government, arrogant as it is, and a
:29:43. > :29:46.Labour opposition so shambolic, this is a moment where the Liberal
:29:47. > :29:48.Democrats need to recover and I'm hopeful this week we will. Tim
:29:49. > :29:51.Farron, thank you for your time. Well that's the Liberal Democrats,
:29:52. > :29:53.what about the Conservatives? Their local election campaign has
:29:54. > :29:56.been relatively low key these last few weeks,
:29:57. > :29:58.with the small matter of an EU referendum campaign taking
:29:59. > :30:00.up most of their time. You could say with Labour
:30:01. > :30:04.in the spotlight the pressure is off the Conservatives
:30:05. > :30:06.in the English local elections. These set of seats were last
:30:07. > :30:08.up for grabs in 2012, when George Osborne's so-called
:30:09. > :30:10.'omnishambles budget' had hit the headlines and the Tories slumped
:30:11. > :30:15.to winning only 884 seats, However, Ukip are targeting
:30:16. > :30:23.Conservative seats and significant losses to Mr Farage's party could be
:30:24. > :30:26.a sign the referendum campaign isn't What's more, there's been
:30:27. > :30:33.a lot of friendly fire in the last few months,
:30:34. > :30:35.with councillors across the country criticising government policy
:30:36. > :30:37.on a range of issues, including turning all schools
:30:38. > :30:39.into academies, more directly elected mayors and reductions
:30:40. > :30:41.in the grants from It is not just the EU
:30:42. > :30:48.that the Conservative Party And the Conservative's Local
:30:49. > :30:54.Government Minister Brandon Lewis joins me now from Chelmsford in
:30:55. > :31:05.Essex. Let me go straight to this business
:31:06. > :31:12.of forced academies in England. The Tory Cabinet member for Oxfordshire
:31:13. > :31:17.County Council says she will have to suck it up, but she thinks you have
:31:18. > :31:22.gone bonkers. Why have you gone bonkers? We haven't. I have to say,
:31:23. > :31:29.from my own experience, if I look at what I have seen in East Anglia and
:31:30. > :31:34.Great Yarmouth, the academies have reformed education. It is a good
:31:35. > :31:36.step forward, about making those schools autonomous, giving them
:31:37. > :31:40.independence. I understand councillors who have been involved
:31:41. > :31:44.in education want to continue to be involved in education. We have to do
:31:45. > :31:48.what is right for the pupils to get that improvement in educational
:31:49. > :31:51.standards. She is not against academies but against you forcing
:31:52. > :31:56.every schools to be academies. Plenty others share her concerns.
:31:57. > :32:04.Why don't you listen to your own people? We are listening to people.
:32:05. > :32:07.What we are saying is... You have to have a two way conversation.
:32:08. > :32:11.Academies have the ability to improve education. I have seen this
:32:12. > :32:16.first hand myself, with vast improvement in the offer of
:32:17. > :32:19.education for pupils. We have to put the pupils first. This is about
:32:20. > :32:22.making sure young people today are getting the best education, the best
:32:23. > :32:29.life chances to move forward and benefit from economics, growth and
:32:30. > :32:34.jobs for security. This is about making sure we do what is right for
:32:35. > :32:37.the pupils and to make sure they are getting the best education. We
:32:38. > :32:41.believe by putting schools in direct control of their destiny is the best
:32:42. > :32:45.way to give pupils the best opportunity. Whom are academies
:32:46. > :32:54.responsible accountable? I didn't hear that. Whom are academies
:32:55. > :32:58.accountable to? They have shown across the country having that
:32:59. > :33:02.independence, the knowledge of the teachers, the headteachers who run
:33:03. > :33:09.those schools and know what is best in that area... Who are they
:33:10. > :33:14.accountable to? It is important they have the opportunity... I asked, to
:33:15. > :33:19.whom are they accountable? Ofsted will judge schools and Ofsted goes
:33:20. > :33:23.in and looks at schools and gives a review of what the school's position
:33:24. > :33:26.is and if it needs to improve, Ofsted is very clear. It is
:33:27. > :33:30.transparent, there is no secret and is well covered in the press local
:33:31. > :33:40.and national when schools have a challenge. No local accountability?
:33:41. > :33:45.I have never seen the school that has had a bad Ofsted report be able
:33:46. > :33:48.to keep it secret. It is a public thing and therefore there is a clear
:33:49. > :33:52.responsibility for the people in that school to move things forward,
:33:53. > :33:56.improve things. And looking at what is right for the pupils. You don't
:33:57. > :34:01.want now to have parent governors, so even if you get a bad Ofsted
:34:02. > :34:04.report, how do the parents hold that school accountable if under the
:34:05. > :34:10.white paper you propose they shouldn't be parent governors?
:34:11. > :34:13.Actually there can be parent governors. What it says is there
:34:14. > :34:16.doesn't have to be. There can be parent governors. I have seen
:34:17. > :34:21.academies in my own constituency and elsewhere where parent governors are
:34:22. > :34:26.important. Key to this is making sure the school itself, with the
:34:27. > :34:29.headteachers and the teachers themselves, who know what is best to
:34:30. > :34:33.move education board, have the opportunity to do that. This is
:34:34. > :34:37.about looking what is right and best for pupils, to get the best possible
:34:38. > :34:41.education, the best start in life. Let's look at local government
:34:42. > :34:45.spending now. You have slashed grants to local government over the
:34:46. > :34:52.years. Paul Carter, Conservative leader of Kent Council, he says the
:34:53. > :34:58.tank is now an empty and we really are, to use another analogy,
:34:59. > :35:00.scraping the barrel. Councils, even Tory councillors are saying under
:35:01. > :35:08.your government they are now scraping the barrel. Local
:35:09. > :35:11.government accounts for about 25% of all public expenditure. We have
:35:12. > :35:15.never been shy about being clear it has to play its part in dealing with
:35:16. > :35:18.debt and deficit. Over this parliament we will see local
:35:19. > :35:23.government in a very strong position. What local government can
:35:24. > :35:27.do and what it is doing when you look Oxfordshire, the Midlands, the
:35:28. > :35:37.North, East Anglia sharks, is making sure they are efficient. -- East
:35:38. > :35:41.Anglia. It is under pound cheaper than Liberal Democrat equivalents,
:35:42. > :35:45.showing really good efficiencies to deliver good quality front line
:35:46. > :35:53.services. At the same time. Paul is an excellent leader, but Lemi -- let
:35:54. > :35:59.me be clear, local government surpluses has gone up from 13 to ?22
:36:00. > :36:03.billion. That is a testament to the efficiencies local governments have
:36:04. > :36:07.shown. It shows there is capacity to go further and also bearing in mind
:36:08. > :36:13.the grant from central government is a small part of the finance for
:36:14. > :36:19.local government. It comes from as a tax, rates and new home tax. Why
:36:20. > :36:27.does he he now Xavi cuts would have a real impact, are having a real
:36:28. > :36:32.impact on people and communities? It is a Conservative saying this? We
:36:33. > :36:38.have to live within our means and make those difficult decisions. They
:36:39. > :36:43.deliver the best decisions to do that. We have seen those
:36:44. > :36:48.efficiencies. Councils are ?80 a year cheaper than the Labour
:36:49. > :36:51.equivalent. Or local authorities, particularly the district councils,
:36:52. > :36:56.though smaller local councils, as Great Yarmouth is doing, should see
:36:57. > :37:02.how they can share chief executives to make sure the efficiencies can
:37:03. > :37:07.deliver good front line services, dozens of councils across the
:37:08. > :37:10.country from Oxfordshire through to Staffordshire, East Anglia and the
:37:11. > :37:13.Midlands are doing this. We can see more of that. There is more
:37:14. > :37:17.opportunity for that. It doesn't just a liver efficiencies by better
:37:18. > :37:22.front line services. When you have been making these funding cuts, why
:37:23. > :37:27.have they disproportionately fallen on Labour areas, which tend to be
:37:28. > :37:30.poorer, and not Tory areas which tend to be richer? Why have you hit
:37:31. > :37:36.the poorer parts of this country with your cuts? With the best of
:37:37. > :37:39.respect, I think the framing of that is slightly misleading. Let's get to
:37:40. > :37:43.the core of what's going on. One of the worst hit councils in the
:37:44. > :37:47.country has been my own in Great Yarmouth. The reason for that goes
:37:48. > :37:52.back historically, before they left power Labour cut the fund that hit
:37:53. > :37:55.councils with the poorest background. And those are the same
:37:56. > :38:02.authorities that have the highest spending power. They had more to
:38:03. > :38:07.spend per household than the equivalent Conservative verities.
:38:08. > :38:10.More needs. Labour led councils like Liverpool, even if they just
:38:11. > :38:15.collected the council tax, it would be ?500 per house better off
:38:16. > :38:21.roughly. We need to make sure these efficiencies are there. The average
:38:22. > :38:26.cup per household in the Tory area is calculated to be ?68 per person
:38:27. > :38:32.per household by the end of this parliament. The Labour councils per
:38:33. > :38:38.household is ?340. You are picking on the poorer parts this country. We
:38:39. > :38:43.also have to bear in mind the spending power in the first places
:38:44. > :38:48.much higher. Because they had more than they needed to spend on. That
:38:49. > :38:52.is why their spending power can be up to ?1500 more in some places than
:38:53. > :38:56.the equivalent smaller district area. They still do have higher
:38:57. > :39:01.spending power per household. And that is why extra money, an extra
:39:02. > :39:04.?300 million was put in for those transitional works, because as we
:39:05. > :39:08.get to the end of this parliament, the change we made to put more money
:39:09. > :39:12.in with a focus on social care, those authorities start to get more
:39:13. > :39:15.money coming through again. Thank you for joining us, Brandon Lewis.
:39:16. > :39:17.It's just gone 11.40am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:18. > :39:20.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:21. > :39:29.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.
:39:30. > :39:32.Hello, and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:39:33. > :39:34.By this time next week it'll all be over, or will it?
:39:35. > :39:37.The election will certainly be done and dusted, but what kind
:39:38. > :39:42.We'll find out what my panel think in a moment.
:39:43. > :39:46.Meanwhile there's plenty more to be done to win votes before Thursday.
:39:47. > :39:49.Cemlyn Davies now on the parts of the campaign other
:39:50. > :39:55.Who do Welsh voters want to be, or not to be
:39:56. > :40:01.That's the question we have answered later this week.
:40:02. > :40:04.Carwyn Jones isn't ready to leave the stage yet, and striking his
:40:05. > :40:09.best Shakespearean pose at Swansea University the Labour
:40:10. > :40:13.leader explained why he deserves an encore.
:40:14. > :40:16.We don't make wild uncosted promises that we know we can't deliver on.
:40:17. > :40:21.We will put more resources into the NHS, education standards
:40:22. > :40:24.will continue to rise, and the performance of our economy,
:40:25. > :40:26.which has been really good over the last few years,
:40:27. > :40:34.The Welsh Conservatives have their own blueprint,
:40:35. > :40:37.their leader believes the party can build enough support to blow
:40:38. > :40:44.We are working to be in government after Mayfest, and be in a position
:40:45. > :40:48.to implement our key investing in NHS, delivering excellence
:40:49. > :40:54.in education and quality jobs with decent take-home pay.
:40:55. > :40:56.If you want real change share in Wales, and to secure that
:40:57. > :40:58.change, you have to vote Welsh Conservatives.
:40:59. > :41:01.As we approach the final furlong Plaid Cymru said only two
:41:02. > :41:03.parties are in the running to win this election.
:41:04. > :41:06.And, despite the long faces, Plaid remain confident they can
:41:07. > :41:14.But we'll never be satisfied in coming second.
:41:15. > :41:19.We are in this race for one reason, and one reason only.
:41:20. > :41:23.To win and to be the next government of Wales.
:41:24. > :41:25.Bold words, but then what else should we expect
:41:26. > :42:00.Yes, Adam Price is that man, writes Plaid MEP Jonathan Edwards
:42:01. > :42:07.But away from Welsh mythology Nigel Farage was back
:42:08. > :42:13.The Ukip leader was actually in Caerphilly where he was keen
:42:14. > :42:18.There's a statue of Tommy Cooper as well, I want to see that.
:42:19. > :42:22.Ukip are hoping to win their first Assembly seats on Thursday,
:42:23. > :42:27.and Mr Farage is determined to help his party achieve that aim.
:42:28. > :42:30.I've come back again and again to Wales, repeatedly,
:42:31. > :42:33.I'm here today and back again next week.
:42:34. > :42:41.The Lib Dems are hoping to avoid another puncture
:42:42. > :42:51.And the party's UK leader has been busy trying to ensure
:42:52. > :42:53.they still have enough AMs for a five-a-side team
:42:54. > :42:59.The Liberal Democrats definitely need to recover for
:43:00. > :43:04.I think the Liberal Democrats have seen an increase in our performance,
:43:05. > :43:08.it looks like it will carry on to Polling Day.
:43:09. > :43:12.It could be a very good result for us.
:43:13. > :43:15.The final score will soon be clear, but with a few days to go the teams
:43:16. > :43:25.Plenty to chew over there as we move into the final
:43:26. > :43:33.Valerie Livingston knows all about what makes a good
:43:34. > :43:37.campaign, Roger Scully knows more than is decent about polling,
:43:38. > :43:39.and Helen Reynolds, who spends much of her time laughing
:43:40. > :43:54.Thank you for joining me. Helen, rather than laughing at political
:43:55. > :43:59.tweets, I guess there is a serious point to be made as well. We've been
:44:00. > :44:06.predicting for years that this will be the social media election. To
:44:07. > :44:12.what extent is that true? It is as true as it was last time. I don't
:44:13. > :44:16.think anything has really changed. It's pretty much like they are
:44:17. > :44:21.taking their leaflets and sticking them at an line thinking that's
:44:22. > :44:25.going to work. Everyone is saying they've had a wonderful reception on
:44:26. > :44:34.the doorstep so it has the blanket effect of nothing less. At the end
:44:35. > :44:38.of the election debate it seemed that everyone thought to their
:44:39. > :44:42.leader was the winner. It seems like not a great deal of engagement or
:44:43. > :44:46.listening. Roger, it is it a problem that this
:44:47. > :44:52.election has suffered because at the same time there have been some
:44:53. > :45:00.really big important issues on a UK level from steel, to the EU, to the
:45:01. > :45:05.Panama papers and the anti-Semitism row, is that overshadowing what is
:45:06. > :45:11.happening in Wales? Undoubtedly, to a large extent for many voters this
:45:12. > :45:17.is the default election that has been most overshadowed by UK level
:45:18. > :45:21.political issues since 2003 when the Iraq war dominated the headlines. It
:45:22. > :45:26.has created challenges and difficulties all over the parties,
:45:27. > :45:31.but most of it for the Labour Party and the Conservative Party who are
:45:32. > :45:35.rather battling against significant bad news stories coming from the
:45:36. > :45:39.party at UK level. Valerie, you used to work for the
:45:40. > :45:44.SNP in Scotland is know a thing or two about election campaigns, how do
:45:45. > :45:47.you try to overcome that as a political party, the fact that maybe
:45:48. > :45:52.one not getting as much attention as you would like?
:45:53. > :45:56.You need to focus on your ground more. It's vital that on the day of
:45:57. > :46:00.the election you get your supporters out.
:46:01. > :46:02.You have to do a lot of work before the election to identify their
:46:03. > :46:07.supporters and make sure they turn up to vote for you.
:46:08. > :46:10.How do you go about doing that? Knocking on doors or more
:46:11. > :46:16.sophisticated? It is a combination of the two. You
:46:17. > :46:19.need an army of activists knocking on doors, gathering information. You
:46:20. > :46:26.can also use computers to analyse that information and work out where
:46:27. > :46:30.best to deploy your resources. You're saying that Twitter is a
:46:31. > :46:34.little bit bland, how should they be going about making sure that they
:46:35. > :46:38.get their messages and support out not just on Twitter but on other
:46:39. > :46:43.social media as well? The key is to remember that it is
:46:44. > :46:49.social media not political media. Think about how people interact and
:46:50. > :46:52.adopt the voice and behaviour. People talk about things they are
:46:53. > :46:57.interested in, they don't necessarily want to talk about you
:46:58. > :47:02.was a politician. It's about being fairly clever and targeted. Key word
:47:03. > :47:06.searches on the things people are talking about, join in those
:47:07. > :47:15.conversations. Don't just wait for people to find it and be interested.
:47:16. > :47:19.How much has this campaign changed because of perceptions, to what
:47:20. > :47:24.extent have the polls shifted during the course of this Welsh election?
:47:25. > :47:30.We haven't seen huge shifts but we have seen a movement down for the
:47:31. > :47:34.Conservatives, and a bit of movement up for Plaid Cymru and in the most
:47:35. > :47:39.recent polls some signs of movement upwards for the Liberal Democrats as
:47:40. > :47:43.well. Two or three months ago it looks as if the Conservatives were
:47:44. > :47:50.strong favourites for second place, the most recent pale has Plaid Cymru
:47:51. > :47:55.second on both fronts albeit not so far ahead of the Conservatives that
:47:56. > :47:59.coming second could be guaranteed. I guess the campaign, to an extent,
:48:00. > :48:05.has not gone very well for the Conservatives. But again format
:48:06. > :48:13.matters beyond their control. Maybe, has it worked in Labour Party macro
:48:14. > :48:17.favour the steel situation is awful for the people involved but from
:48:18. > :48:21.Carwyn Jones's point of view he has been able to portray himself as a
:48:22. > :48:26.statesman. Obviously the big issue is people's
:48:27. > :48:31.jobs and livelihoods but there is a political dimension to that. Carwyn
:48:32. > :48:39.Jones has played, I think most people think, that rather well. Last
:48:40. > :48:43.week, Ken Livingstone and so on have not been particularly helping the
:48:44. > :48:48.Labour Party, for the party in Wales they must be very much hoping that
:48:49. > :48:52.the emphasis on this as a Welsh election will mean matters going on
:48:53. > :48:55.in London do not have too much impact in terms of votes or
:48:56. > :49:00.supporter turnout. What do you think about the other
:49:01. > :49:05.parties, Plaid Cymru and Ukip in particular, Plaid Cymru seemed to be
:49:06. > :49:09.going more towards the centre ground, not being such an
:49:10. > :49:13.independent socialist party as being the competent party that want to go
:49:14. > :49:17.into government? I think what Plaid Cymru were trying to get across in
:49:18. > :49:24.their manifesto was their competence. They had a fulsome
:49:25. > :49:27.credible plan. Leanne Wood is a very likeable politician at the front and
:49:28. > :49:31.centre of the campaign in a bid to gain support from all sectors of the
:49:32. > :49:35.Welsh electorate. What about Ukip then? The initial
:49:36. > :49:41.fights and backstabbing seem to have, down to you think somebody has
:49:42. > :49:45.had a word they are or is it the initial interest in the election has
:49:46. > :49:49.gone into proper campaigning? I think now that we have all the
:49:50. > :49:55.candidates in place it has died down. Ukip seems to whether that
:49:56. > :49:59.storm quite well, it didn't seem to have a hugely negative impact on how
:50:00. > :50:03.they were polling. It is interesting that we see Nigel Farage here but we
:50:04. > :50:08.haven't really seen any of the other UK leaders making prominent
:50:09. > :50:11.appearances in Wales. He is a huge asset to Ukip.
:50:12. > :50:13.Let's take a quick break now and bring you a world exclusive.
:50:14. > :50:15.Graphics on election night have come a long way
:50:16. > :50:20.On Thursday evening and into Friday I'll be crunching
:50:21. > :50:23.the figures on BBC One and S4C and bringing you the analysis
:50:24. > :50:29.Let's take a look at your first chance to see this year's BBC Wales
:50:30. > :50:31.election graphics located, where else, but in
:50:32. > :50:37.Hello, welcome to BBC Wales's election virtual reality studio
:50:38. > :50:43.The authorities have kindly allowed us to use the space.
:50:44. > :50:46.We'll be looking at what the key data is telling us ahead
:50:47. > :50:51.First of all, we see how things looked after the 2011 election.
:50:52. > :50:55.I open up the floor to reveal our Virtual Chamber.
:50:56. > :50:58.Now, clearly, as we know, Labour the largest party,
:50:59. > :51:04.They didn't cross that winning line here.
:51:05. > :51:08.The Conservatives are the second largest party, the main
:51:09. > :51:12.Plaid Cymru are in yellow here rather than the traditional green.
:51:13. > :51:15.They are 11, and the smallest party in the last Assembly, the Liberal
:51:16. > :51:22.Just get rid of the members here, because as we know, we haven't
:51:23. > :51:29.Let's have a look at how the parties faired over the last
:51:30. > :51:33.We look back to the first elections in 1999,
:51:34. > :51:44.Basically Labour have cemented their position.
:51:45. > :51:46.There is always this interesting fight between Plaid Cymru
:51:47. > :51:49.and the Conservatives over who can make it into second place.
:51:50. > :51:51.And then the Liberal Democrats have always been in fourth position,
:51:52. > :51:57.This is the latest opinion poll showing the constituencies
:51:58. > :51:59.here from Cardiff University and ITV Wales.
:52:00. > :52:03.Yes, Labour is still the largest party with 33% of the vote,
:52:04. > :52:08.but much lower than they have been before the last election.
:52:09. > :52:10.The battle for second place between Plaid Cymru
:52:11. > :52:14.and the Conservatives is still going on, but this time,
:52:15. > :52:16.apparently, Plaid Cymru have overtaken the Conservatives.
:52:17. > :52:19.The new kids on the block, Ukip, got 15% of the vote ahead
:52:20. > :52:22.of the Liberal Democrats who down to 8%.
:52:23. > :52:26.This is just an opinion poll, so we don't know.
:52:27. > :52:29.What would that mean in terms of seats?
:52:30. > :52:33.Well, my new toy, this is a coalition builder
:52:34. > :52:35.that shows you that yes, Labour would be the largest
:52:36. > :52:38.party with 28, but still shy of a majority.
:52:39. > :52:40.13 for Plaid Cymru, ten for the Conservatives,
:52:41. > :52:43.the new group in the Assembly, Ukip, on seven and the Lib
:52:44. > :52:46.That's what the Chamber would look like.
:52:47. > :52:49.But what would the Government looked like?
:52:50. > :52:52.Let's take them over here and show you what the Labour Party might
:52:53. > :52:55.try to do, which is form a government on its own.
:52:56. > :52:59.But they are short of that overall majority so they might bring
:53:00. > :53:03.in the two Liberal Democrats, according to this opinion poll.
:53:04. > :53:05.They are still short of that overall majority.
:53:06. > :53:08.So they might go back to what they did in 2007 and bring
:53:09. > :53:11.in Plaid Cymru that gives them plenty of Assembly members
:53:12. > :53:14.to get their programme of government through.
:53:15. > :53:16.But how difficult would it be for them to work together?
:53:17. > :53:20.The other scenario, of course, is that one of these
:53:21. > :53:23.parties work together, but if you look at the political
:53:24. > :53:26.policy differences and ideological differences between these parties,
:53:27. > :53:30.that is hell of a job to form any sort of official coalition.
:53:31. > :53:34.I can hear the politicians shouting at the screen, why are
:53:35. > :53:37.We haven't even counted to the votes yet!
:53:38. > :53:39.Absolutely, that is just based on one opinion poll.
:53:40. > :53:42.We have to wait until after Thursday to know exactly
:53:43. > :54:00.There we are. We love our little election ties. I have two apologise
:54:01. > :54:08.to Roger for saying it was just an opinion poll! Apologies there.
:54:09. > :54:12.Before we go on to talk about what might happen after Thursday we want
:54:13. > :54:17.to talk a bit more about social media. That issue of everyone
:54:18. > :54:21.sending out the same brand messages. We have one example here from
:54:22. > :54:28.Labour. But all the parties are guilty of this. What's wrong with
:54:29. > :54:33.that? There's nothing wrong with it if it
:54:34. > :54:38.comes with personality and insight, for those people who are undecided
:54:39. > :54:43.they want to vote for a person, a human being. If it feels like a
:54:44. > :54:47.sound bite or a party line, then it's like tumbleweed. You can see
:54:48. > :54:52.from these kind of tweets they get limited engagement. If they are
:54:53. > :54:55.shaded or liked, you can have a look at those and see that these are
:54:56. > :54:59.people who are already allowed to the party.
:55:00. > :55:08.We have another example of something a little bit different. Here we are
:55:09. > :55:11.in North Wales launching our health manifesto. Only the Conservatives
:55:12. > :55:17.are committed to... Why is it so special having Andrew
:55:18. > :55:21.RT Davies on social media not on the television?
:55:22. > :55:28.This is a little insight into who he is. You can see his body language.
:55:29. > :55:32.On Twitter you can only post a 22nd clip, most people don't have time to
:55:33. > :55:37.watch a whole election debate they just want a little taste. This is
:55:38. > :55:42.like looking through the door because it is a long rectangle
:55:43. > :55:46.shape, but it's still good. I'd rather see him and read his
:55:47. > :55:51.words. Is that important to see a bit of the person to see what a
:55:52. > :55:56.Twitter looks like rather than just the words?
:55:57. > :56:02.Yes, politicians have a bit of a job gaining trust with the public, they
:56:03. > :56:06.want to see that it is you saying it in your own voice. They want to see
:56:07. > :56:09.your body language and relate to you as a person as well as someone who
:56:10. > :56:13.represents ideals. The last one we've got is a bit
:56:14. > :56:22.different. This is the former Green party leader in Wales.
:56:23. > :56:31.Is this what you're looking for? I like this. It's showing a bit of
:56:32. > :56:36.personality. You either like her or you don't. It's creating an emotion,
:56:37. > :56:41.some form of response whether good or bad. That is the main point was
:56:42. > :56:48.not give a little bit of yourself. That treat is a good example because
:56:49. > :56:53.she engages with people. They don't just expect to see press releases.
:56:54. > :56:57.Barry, you've worked with political parties is it difficult to get them
:56:58. > :57:05.to understand the importance of political social media? Some
:57:06. > :57:09.politicians use it as a told to engage but others see it as a tool
:57:10. > :57:12.for broadcast that is where it goes wrong. If you're not listening
:57:13. > :57:19.that's where it begins to get a bit tedious. Looking ahead to after
:57:20. > :57:26.Thursday, your latest polls there, we know that during the campaign all
:57:27. > :57:30.the parties have said we want to go for a majority to varying degrees,
:57:31. > :57:36.but what you think is the most likely scenario is macro and putting
:57:37. > :57:42.you on the spot their! Well, what happens after the election depends
:57:43. > :57:49.on two things, the numbers, they can impose their own logic. And then
:57:50. > :57:53.secondly, which parties will be able to work with each other
:57:54. > :57:58.realistically. It looks likely that we will have no party very close to
:57:59. > :58:02.a majority. Labour's almost certainly going to be the biggest
:58:03. > :58:10.party but it will depend how far short of a majority they are. In the
:58:11. > :58:14.current Assembly Labour have exactly half the seats, they have
:58:15. > :58:17.essentially been able to have either the Liberal Democrats or Plaid Cymru
:58:18. > :58:23.as potential partners to push them into a majority. They have been able
:58:24. > :58:27.to play the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru off against each other.
:58:28. > :58:30.It looks like the possible configuration is much more limited
:58:31. > :58:38.in the next Assembly. Are you assuming that any government
:58:39. > :58:43.is going to have, the Labour Party, leading it. They are not going to be
:58:44. > :58:46.any situation where labour is down to 24 or 25 seats, that's not the
:58:47. > :58:52.cards? Even if Labour are down to 24 it
:58:53. > :58:54.doesn't look at the moment as if there is a politically feasible
:58:55. > :59:00.alternative coalition that could reach a majority. You'd need to
:59:01. > :59:03.seize say the Conservatives and Ukip performing at the abhorrent or
:59:04. > :59:09.beyond the upper end of expectations to get anywhere close to 30 or 31
:59:10. > :59:19.seats that they would need. -- performing at the upper end or
:59:20. > :59:22.beyond. At the moment those parties don't look as if they are in the
:59:23. > :59:29.same sort of place. Valerie, we know that one of the
:59:30. > :59:33.successes of the SNP in 2007 as the minority government was to look
:59:34. > :59:38.competent in government. That helped them in normally, is that potential
:59:39. > :59:43.prize enough to draw in maybe Plaid Cymru and the Tories to work
:59:44. > :59:47.together should the maths add up? I think it's very unlikely this time
:59:48. > :59:51.round that the Conservatives would go into a coalition with Plaid
:59:52. > :59:56.Cymru. Particularly given the currently do ship of both parties.
:59:57. > :00:01.They might prefer to really push Labour and make it difficult for
:00:02. > :00:04.Labour to get their programme for government through without
:00:05. > :00:06.significant concessions to the opposition parties.
:00:07. > :00:11.I assume that both leaders will still be there for the duration of
:00:12. > :00:15.the next Assembly? Leadership elections do seem likely
:00:16. > :00:19.over the next year or so but politically, for Plaid Cymru, any
:00:20. > :00:23.leader of Plaid Cymru to say I will eat my party into a coalition with
:00:24. > :00:28.our archenemies, the Conservatives, seems to be very unlikely.
:00:29. > :00:31.So minority Labour for the next five years do you think something
:00:32. > :00:35.different? Expect and mix, really, isn't it?
:00:36. > :00:43.I can't imagine there is going to be a huge amount of change.
:00:44. > :00:47.In terms of how we've seen things changing over the course of this
:00:48. > :00:51.election, did you think that Labour is more comfortable than it has been
:00:52. > :00:55.in the past carrying on as a minority government or are they
:00:56. > :00:59.depending on the numbers, seeking some form of support, they don't
:01:00. > :01:03.have that many members from the Liberal Democrats to draw on for
:01:04. > :01:07.support? Well, they may be in a situation,
:01:08. > :01:13.whether they are comfortable with it is the only feasible option. It
:01:14. > :01:18.looks as if the range of possible governments after the election may
:01:19. > :01:22.well be limited to simply Labour minority or Labour Plaid Cymru
:01:23. > :01:26.coalition. To have a coalition you need to sides wishing to enter a
:01:27. > :01:33.partnership. It could well be that Labour are, in a sense, condemned to
:01:34. > :01:36.government. They are the largest party, and they may be in a
:01:37. > :01:42.situation where there is no possibility for them to form a
:01:43. > :01:47.majority coalition which could make life difficult for them.
:01:48. > :01:50.In terms of Ukip, if we are expecting them to be in the
:01:51. > :01:55.Assembly, how does that change things?
:01:56. > :01:59.It will be fascinating for Assembly watchers. How long does it last?
:02:00. > :02:03.There are huge issues with discipline within Ukip and we are
:02:04. > :02:06.expecting a leadership election. No matter how many are elected on
:02:07. > :02:09.Thursday I don't think they will be Ukip Assembly members by the end.
:02:10. > :02:11.Certainly a big week ahead for Welsh politics.
:02:12. > :02:13.Don't forget about our special programmes after the polls close
:02:14. > :02:16.on Thursday, with minute by minute coverage of the results
:02:17. > :02:24.That's from 10.30 on Thursday evening.
:02:25. > :02:26.in the Mayoral election on the screen now.
:02:27. > :02:28.And further information is available on the BBC London website.
:02:29. > :02:35.What will Labour's anti-Semitism row mean for the party's election
:02:36. > :02:39.Is Jeremy Corbyn facing a possible challenge to his leadership?
:02:40. > :02:41.And what are the Leave and Remain teams plotting for the
:02:42. > :03:07.Elections to the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly,
:03:08. > :03:12.English local areas, and London now. Labour is fighting in all of these
:03:13. > :03:18.areas. How do we judge Mr Corbyn's party performance? I think you need
:03:19. > :03:23.a symbolic victory in London. In many ways it will matter less than
:03:24. > :03:26.doing well in English local council elections. Councils are your
:03:27. > :03:30.campaigning base for a general election in four years' time. It is
:03:31. > :03:35.a much more sexy office, the London mayor. It's the Khan wins I think it
:03:36. > :03:39.gets him out of trouble, gets Joe Clee Corbyn out of some trouble,
:03:40. > :03:43.deservedly or not. The result I'm beginning to think might end up
:03:44. > :03:56.being historic is in Scotland. If the Conservatives finished second, I
:03:57. > :04:00.think it establishes two things. One, the idea that a left-wing
:04:01. > :04:02.Labour Party can recover some of the ground lost to the SNP, a very
:04:03. > :04:04.popular idea in the leadership contest last summer, will suffer.
:04:05. > :04:06.And more significant is if the Tories finished second, it will
:04:07. > :04:10.confirm Ruth Davidson as the most interesting, maybe the most talented
:04:11. > :04:14.politician of the Next Generation and there will be a lot of pressure
:04:15. > :04:19.from the London branch of the Tory to tempt her down. To take away the
:04:20. > :04:27.only winner the Tories might have had in two generations question what
:04:28. > :04:34.yes. She could be a potentially compelling UK wide figure. At the
:04:35. > :04:41.end of the day, if Jeremy Corbyn holds on to London, which the polls
:04:42. > :04:46.tell us he will, then he is OK. I think the Tories must be praying
:04:47. > :04:52.that he will be OK. He is the gift that goes on giving. Is it in the
:04:53. > :04:57.Tory interest the Tories not to hold on to London? I think it is in Tory
:04:58. > :05:01.interests that Jeremy Corbyn survives as leader, no one else
:05:02. > :05:05.could be as good further Tories except maybe the Shadow Chancellor.
:05:06. > :05:11.The people who are not paying terribly close attention to the
:05:12. > :05:15.detail of this row, even though they must be aware of the vague issues,
:05:16. > :05:21.there is a conclusion beginning to surface that the Labour Party is
:05:22. > :05:25.being done by crazy people. If they choose the Shadow Chancellor, who is
:05:26. > :05:30.a much harder character, would be a much more muscular version of Jeremy
:05:31. > :05:34.Corbyn and probably less incompetent looking, more impressive as a
:05:35. > :05:39.personality, that means that the hold of the hard left of Labour will
:05:40. > :05:43.be embedded for a political generation, another three or four
:05:44. > :05:47.years. That would be a different problem for the Tories, because they
:05:48. > :05:51.wouldn't just be able to make him look Ludogrets. How has it come
:05:52. > :05:59.about? This is the first electoral test for the government. A year on
:06:00. > :06:03.from the last election and usually we judge them by how is the
:06:04. > :06:07.government faring? How is it beginning to lose about? And yet the
:06:08. > :06:12.yardsticks all seem to be about Labour, not the Tories. They have
:06:13. > :06:16.been about Labour for the last 72 hours, since they got into this
:06:17. > :06:19.crisis over the row on anti-Semitism. Before that the only
:06:20. > :06:22.thing we were talking about is the referendum. The reason we are not
:06:23. > :06:26.focusing so much on the Conservatives on how they are doing
:06:27. > :06:30.is David Cameron hasn't taken any interest in these elections on
:06:31. > :06:34.Thursday. He is absolutely focused on the EU referendum. For him it is
:06:35. > :06:39.a matter of life or death, whatever he says. He loses the referendum on
:06:40. > :06:42.the 23rd of June and that is the end of his premiership and the of George
:06:43. > :06:48.Osborne and the right life of the party will be in the descendants.
:06:49. > :06:53.But Thursday, what is about Thursday is still London election is the
:06:54. > :06:57.least significant election. When you want to know how is Labour going to
:06:58. > :07:03.do in the general election you need to look at Scotland and the English
:07:04. > :07:07.locals and Wales. But London will be symbolically the most significant
:07:08. > :07:11.election, because if as we assume Sadiq Khan wins, as Janan was
:07:12. > :07:15.saying, that will take the I've got a victory my back pocket box and
:07:16. > :07:20.Jeremy Corbyn will for the moment soldier one. You mentioned how these
:07:21. > :07:27.elections, as important as they are, have been overshadowed by the EU
:07:28. > :07:30.referendum on the 23rd of June. The Leave and Remain campaign have been
:07:31. > :07:34.putting out commercials, let's take a look.
:07:35. > :07:36.At the end of the war, Britain created the NHS.
:07:37. > :07:42.It protects us throughout our lives - but it's in danger.
:07:43. > :08:05.Remaining in Europe will create an extra 790,000 UK jobs by the time
:08:06. > :08:18.There we go. The first one to Leave and second Remain. The poll suggests
:08:19. > :08:22.they are winning the argument on the economy. But private polling
:08:23. > :08:29.suggests the NHS and immigration do well for Leave. What's going on
:08:30. > :08:36.here? They've looked at private polling and concluded on the economy
:08:37. > :08:42.Remain has a lead which is more or less insurmountable. On immigration
:08:43. > :08:50.Leave have an insurmountable lead. Rather than engage in a futile
:08:51. > :08:53.attempt to win back credibility on economy or immigration is better to
:08:54. > :08:59.spend everyday folks think the debate on your home territory. That
:09:00. > :09:02.is why I think if on the ballot in seven weeks' time the average voter
:09:03. > :09:07.sees the question as, what is the best way controlling immigration?
:09:08. > :09:12.Leave Will win. If the question is how do you preserve economic
:09:13. > :09:19.stability then Remain will win. By this time next week when the
:09:20. > :09:25.Thursday election results will have been analysed and so on, the EU
:09:26. > :09:32.referendum campaign starts proper. All the way until June 23. Does the
:09:33. > :09:36.Remain side not have a problem, it seems to have fired a lot of its
:09:37. > :09:40.ammunition already? It does, with that 200 page Treasury report. We
:09:41. > :09:44.have around two of the Treasury report. Ten years ago it was looking
:09:45. > :09:49.at the long-term consequences of an exit from the European Union. There
:09:50. > :09:52.is another report to go. That is the immediate consequences, which will
:09:53. > :09:56.basically say there will be a mighty recession and the pound would go
:09:57. > :10:00.through the floor. But remember, we have two phases of the campaign. We
:10:01. > :10:07.have about two and a half or three weeks after the local elections. Up
:10:08. > :10:12.until that point government can put out any election document it wants,
:10:13. > :10:16.it can get civil servants to write in favour of the European Union. 28
:10:17. > :10:20.days, from the end of May until the 23rd of June it means ministers can
:10:21. > :10:25.say what they like but they cannot use government machinery and
:10:26. > :10:27.government publications. You will watch a great blast from the
:10:28. > :10:37.government side in the three weeks after the local elections.
:10:38. > :11:18.The remaining side have made claims about what the jobs will be, but
:11:19. > :11:25.this doesn't surprise me at all. I find the British the most resilient
:11:26. > :11:30.people against being threatened amongst any in the world. During the
:11:31. > :11:34.election campaign, every time Nicola Sturgeon said we are going to lock
:11:35. > :11:43.David Cameron out of Downing Street, I heard a chorus from British people
:11:44. > :11:47.saying oh yeah. Last night was the famous White House correspondents
:11:48. > :11:51.dinner, it is a time for comedy, comedy acts even from the
:11:52. > :11:53.politicians. The president began by talking about his visit here. Let's
:11:54. > :11:56.listen. Even some foreign leaders,
:11:57. > :11:58.they've been looking ahead, Last week Prince George showed up
:11:59. > :12:02.to our meeting in his bathrobe. Although, while in
:12:03. > :12:16.England I did have lunch with Her Majesty The Queen,
:12:17. > :12:22.took in a performance of Shakespeare, hit the Links
:12:23. > :12:25.with David Cameron. Just in case anybody is still
:12:26. > :12:44.debating whether I'm black or not... The president there showing he has
:12:45. > :12:49.great comedic timing as well. He can be a stand-up man when he steps down
:12:50. > :12:54.from the White House. You have been to the Westminster dinner, it is not
:12:55. > :12:59.quite on the same scale. It is not. The most important thing this year
:13:00. > :13:03.is George Osborne, the year before it was Ed Miliband, their speech is
:13:04. > :13:07.on the record but not filmed. George Osborne delivered what was generally
:13:08. > :13:12.perceived as a very good joke because he told jokes at his own
:13:13. > :13:25.expense. This quite funny one about now I am on the 52-macro diet, I had
:13:26. > :13:29.to eat my words after the Budget. You are now off to Newsnight so we
:13:30. > :13:36.whipped together to get you a farewell present and there it is.
:13:37. > :13:40.But you only get that if you win a competition! That is how kind we are
:13:41. > :13:43.to you. Enjoy it because you won't get anything like that on Newsnight.
:13:44. > :13:47.The Daily Politics will be back on Tuesday at midday on BBC Two,
:13:48. > :13:50.and I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday at 11
:13:51. > :13:55.We will have all of these local election results.
:13:56. > :14:04.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.