:00:36. > :00:41.A thumping big win for Labour over the Conservatives in London -
:00:42. > :00:44.but what do Thursday's less impressive results across
:00:45. > :00:48.the country mean for Jeremy Corbyn's chances of getting to Number 10?
:00:49. > :00:50.We'll hear from both sides of the debate
:00:51. > :00:54.Here's one Tory riding high at least.
:00:55. > :00:57.Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has managed to take
:00:58. > :01:00.the party once thought of as too toxic for Scotland
:01:01. > :01:07.And with the elections now over, it's back to the biggest political
:01:08. > :01:15.The Cabinet's heavyweights have been trading blows
:01:16. > :01:18.Later in the programme, the voting is over but as the Assembly convenes
:01:19. > :01:20.all the parties have questions to answer.
:01:21. > :01:33.And how will the Khan- Corbyn combo work?
:01:34. > :01:38.giving media interviews this morning, I'm joined in the studio
:01:39. > :01:40.by the aristocracy, the upper crust, the royalty
:01:41. > :01:47.Tom Newton-Dunn, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.
:01:48. > :01:49.We're going to have a whip round after the show
:01:50. > :01:52.and get Steve a double-barrelled surname too.
:01:53. > :02:04.So, this week's elections were an extraordinary
:02:05. > :02:06.demonstration of modern democracy in the United Kingdom.
:02:07. > :02:09.There was good and bad for almost every political party
:02:10. > :02:11.across the nations and regions, and that's meant a feast
:02:12. > :02:12.of spinning, analysis, claim and counter-claim.
:02:13. > :02:15.Well today with almost all of the results now in -
:02:16. > :02:17.although we're still waiting for a few police and crime
:02:18. > :02:20.commissioners and one English council - we're going to try
:02:21. > :02:24.First here's Adam with his behind-the-scenes look at how
:02:25. > :02:29.It's election night, and my chance to annoy the big
:02:30. > :02:37.And this is the most depressing bit.
:02:38. > :02:42.Are you expecting to get a bit of a headache?
:02:43. > :02:48.It's a two day extravaganza of results.
:02:49. > :02:50.Will Jeremy Corbyn be staying up all night tonight?
:02:51. > :02:54.Jeremy doesn't go to bed on nights like this!
:02:55. > :02:57.We're old mates, we've been together 30 years on these different things
:02:58. > :03:01.So you're both proper election night geeks?
:03:02. > :03:06.The Labour telly addicts watched their party lose one council
:03:07. > :03:10.and a handful of councillors in England, not a lot,
:03:11. > :03:13.but not amazing either, as even Jeremy Corbyn admitted.
:03:14. > :03:17.We were getting predictions that Labour was going to lose councils,
:03:18. > :03:23.Although he celebrated winning two by-elections in pretty
:03:24. > :03:32.This is the first time I've ever had a desk at one of these things.
:03:33. > :03:38.The SNP got close to a majority in the Scottish Parliament,
:03:39. > :03:49.It is a vote of confidence in the record in government
:03:50. > :03:56.of the SNP, and it is a vote of trust in the SNP to lead
:03:57. > :04:03.Davidson, Ruth - Scottish and Conservative and Unionist...
:04:04. > :04:05.The biggest smile belongs to Ruth Davidson, leader
:04:06. > :04:09.of the Scottish Tories, who displaced Labour to become
:04:10. > :04:14.Have you been looking in the results in Scotland than just going whoa?
:04:15. > :04:23.Even if you look at some of the seats...
:04:24. > :04:27.We've just seen a few come through, the SNP have hold of one, but,
:04:28. > :04:30.actually, with huge swings from the SNP to the Conservatives.
:04:31. > :04:33.In Wales Ukip won their first seats on the Assembly,
:04:34. > :04:36.meaning a comeback for the former Tory MP Neil Hamilton,
:04:37. > :04:40.who managed to offend one Welshman within seconds.
:04:41. > :04:41.I'm thoroughly Welsh through and through,
:04:42. > :04:45.Here were are in virtually your hometown of Llanelli.
:04:46. > :04:47.Just one correction, Neil, of course it's not
:04:48. > :04:50.virtually my hometown - it is my hometown.
:04:51. > :04:53.So let's be very accurate about that, shall we?
:04:54. > :04:58.By lunchtime on Friday, us media types had realised that
:04:59. > :05:02.nothing especially dramatic had happened, so we all hotfooted
:05:03. > :05:05.it to City Hall to see Labour's Sadiq Khan elected
:05:06. > :05:10.Though most of the chat among the hacks in the press room
:05:11. > :05:19.was about the campaign run by his Tory rival, Zac Goldsmith,
:05:20. > :05:21.which was described as mean and divisive.
:05:22. > :05:26.I personally never went near central office in either
:05:27. > :05:28.of my campaigns, and I don't think Boris Johnson did either.
:05:29. > :05:30.Is that because they're not very good?
:05:31. > :05:32.That's because you are the candidates, it is
:05:33. > :05:36.your campaign and you should run it your way.
:05:37. > :05:41.And Labour nabbed another mayor, in Bristol, taking over
:05:42. > :05:46.The results from other campaigns around the UK are still
:05:47. > :05:51.It's not been super exciting, but we have got a nice view
:05:52. > :06:02.So with almost all the counting and number crunching across England,
:06:03. > :06:04.Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland now finished, let's take a look
:06:05. > :06:10.The SNP won the Scottish election, and will be the largest party
:06:11. > :06:16.But Nicola Sturgeon's party fell two short of a majority, and will govern
:06:17. > :06:22.Ruth Davidson's Conservatives overtook Labour to become the second
:06:23. > :06:26.biggest party north of the border, with 31 seats.
:06:27. > :06:29.Scottish Labour were pushed into 3rd place -
:06:30. > :06:33.with 24 seats, down 13 from the last Holyrood election.
:06:34. > :06:35.Labour remains the dominant party in Wales, winning 29
:06:36. > :06:41.And Leanne Wood's Plaid Cymru pipped the Conservatives 12 to 11 to become
:06:42. > :06:49.taking 7 seats in Wales - the first time they've sat
:06:50. > :06:53.In Northern Ireland, the DUP will once again
:06:54. > :06:59.They won 38 seats, with the next biggest party Sinn Fein on 28.
:07:00. > :07:02.Results in the English councils were seen as a major test
:07:03. > :07:08.And the party had a mixed night, winning the most councils -
:07:09. > :07:12.but losing 23 councillors since the last elections in 2012.
:07:13. > :07:14.There were two Westminster by-elections - with Labour
:07:15. > :07:18.holding the seats of Sheffield Brightside and Ogmore.
:07:19. > :07:21.And the Labour party won in London too -
:07:22. > :07:23.where Sadiq Khan beat Zac Goldsmith to the mayoralty,
:07:24. > :07:31.winning 57% of the vote on first preferences, to Goldsmith's 43%.
:07:32. > :07:34.The Green Party came third in the London elections -
:07:35. > :07:36.with their highest vote tally yet in the capital.
:07:37. > :07:39.There were also new Mayors chosen in Bristol, Salford and Liverpool -
:07:40. > :07:43.Finally, voters in 40 police forces in England and Wales
:07:44. > :07:46.elected their new Police and Crime Commissioner.
:07:47. > :07:50.With the Tories and Labour triumphing over independents.
:07:51. > :07:54.With 36 of the 40 election results having declared, the Tories have won
:07:55. > :08:12.What does this mean, in the round, for Labour? It is the worst possible
:08:13. > :08:16.result for Labour, because it isn't good enough, and it isn't bad
:08:17. > :08:21.enough, which is the worst-case scenario for anyone who wants Labour
:08:22. > :08:27.to win in 2020. This is concerning the likes of Jeremy Corbyn and John
:08:28. > :08:30.McDonnell, but it is the point of being a political party, winning
:08:31. > :08:36.elections. Is it the worst of both worlds because they didn't do badly
:08:37. > :08:40.enough? To justify ousting Corbyn, but they didn't do well enough to
:08:41. > :08:45.suggest that Corbyn's people were right, and there was a groundswell
:08:46. > :08:50.of opinion moving to the far left. We saw the message coming out from
:08:51. > :08:55.the deputy leader on Friday morning, stand-down everyone, not yet. Do you
:08:56. > :09:01.agree? No. Even if these results had been much worse, as many expected it
:09:02. > :09:05.would be in the media and beyond, it still wouldn't have been the mood
:09:06. > :09:10.now. It is all being played out in public. Tom Watson, the deputy
:09:11. > :09:14.leader, gave an interview on Friday where he called ambiguously for
:09:15. > :09:20.patients. What he meant was, it is far too early to remove a leader who
:09:21. > :09:25.got an overwhelming mandate nine months ago in September. And he's
:09:26. > :09:30.right about that. You can't do it if the party membership overwhelmingly
:09:31. > :09:35.backs the leader. But what he meant by patients was, you don't have to
:09:36. > :09:38.translate it, there is a time-limit to this. Jeremy Corbyn needs more
:09:39. > :09:44.time to show he can put together a winning formula. If he fails in
:09:45. > :09:49.that, at some point, there will be he and others who will trigger some
:09:50. > :09:55.kind of challenge. So he's on a leasehold? Yes. He's not doing well
:09:56. > :09:59.enough to suggest he will win the next election. I don't agree with
:10:00. > :10:03.Julia that people are indifferent about winning elections. But party
:10:04. > :10:08.members who voted for Jeremy Corbyn are absolutely different to winning
:10:09. > :10:13.elections. I don't know. I assume that people who go out knocking on
:10:14. > :10:18.doors want to win. Sadiq Khan. That was the big result for Labour, and
:10:19. > :10:26.he won very comfortably. He won very strongly in the GLA as well. The
:10:27. > :10:29.Tories did very badly. We have this strange situation where, despite
:10:30. > :10:34.Sadiq Khan being the poster boy for the night, he still hasn't met
:10:35. > :10:39.Jeremy Corbyn. Is Mr Khan going to be an alternative Labour Party based
:10:40. > :10:44.around London City Hall? He tells us he's going to meet Jeremy Corbyn
:10:45. > :10:49.tomorrow. Corbyn said they were going to meet today. It is a real
:10:50. > :10:55.problem for Jeremy now because he is up against someone else with their
:10:56. > :10:58.own mandate, an enormous one. 1.3 million Londoners, together with
:10:59. > :11:04.their second preferences. A huge number. I think Sadiq Khan will use
:11:05. > :11:08.that to be the mouthpiece of the moderates, the soft left. I would
:11:09. > :11:12.suggest that if we were not looking at this through the prism of what it
:11:13. > :11:18.means for Mr Corbyn, we may be pointing out that the Tories didn't
:11:19. > :11:21.have a great night. They lost seats in England and Wales, they lost
:11:22. > :11:27.London and their share of the vote in London is now under 30%. They
:11:28. > :11:32.only got eight seats on the Greater London assembly. They are in their
:11:33. > :11:36.worst position since 2004, which was the second time we had a London
:11:37. > :11:40.election. It isn't brilliant for them. They would save the first year
:11:41. > :11:46.in government, do get this kind of reaction. Or worse ones. At what is
:11:47. > :11:51.overlooked in all this is that the last Labour government's post-97
:11:52. > :11:55.devolution proposals has transformed UK politics. In Scotland, the
:11:56. > :12:00.Conservatives are thrilled because they came second, but that wasn't
:12:01. > :12:05.about David Cameron, it was about Ruth Davidson, their leader there.
:12:06. > :12:10.In London, when people voted for Sadiq Khan, they were not thinking
:12:11. > :12:16.about Jeremy Corbyn. They were voting for him. Unintentionally,
:12:17. > :12:20.those devolution proposals have transformed UK politics, fracturing
:12:21. > :12:26.the UK parties, and will no longer allow any single party to make those
:12:27. > :12:29.sort of thousand seat gains that Blair did. But the Tories shouldn't
:12:30. > :12:38.be too complacent about this. It wasn't a great result. It wasn't,
:12:39. > :12:43.but who would expect it? The party is an absolute disarray, the deepest
:12:44. > :12:46.divisions. We have had a senior Cabinet Minister resign, criticising
:12:47. > :12:50.the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. If they did well this
:12:51. > :12:56.time, I would be surprised. So the Tories should have done worse? They
:12:57. > :13:00.should. I would disagree with your hypothesis to begin with, because
:13:01. > :13:04.they are, in some parts of this country, making remarkable progress,
:13:05. > :13:12.like Scotland. They could have lost seats. We know the Ruth Davidson
:13:13. > :13:16.story. If David Cameron can show his own party he's still a winner, six
:13:17. > :13:21.years into government, I would suggest he is pretty safe
:13:22. > :13:24.post-referendum. Well, that is our panel's verdict.
:13:25. > :13:26.So the high point for the Conservatives this week
:13:27. > :13:28.was undoubtedly in Scotland, where a party once known
:13:29. > :13:30.as the toxic Tories has become Ruth Davidson's Conservatives,
:13:31. > :13:32.replacing Labour as Scotland's second party and becoming
:13:33. > :13:34.the official opposition to the SNP at Holyrood.
:13:35. > :13:36.Ruth Davidson successfully positioned herself as the only
:13:37. > :13:38.person capable of standing up to Nicola Sturgeon over independence
:13:39. > :13:42.This morning Nicola Sturgeon says "bring it on2.
:13:43. > :13:45.Well we can speak now to Ruth Davidson, she joins us
:13:46. > :13:57.Good morning. Are the Scottish Conservatives now quite separate
:13:58. > :14:05.from the Tories? There was no appearance in your campaign from
:14:06. > :14:10.ministers in Westminster. But our campaign was launched in March?
:14:11. > :14:16.Other than that, did anybody come up to campaign for you? This was not
:14:17. > :14:20.about London. It is a sophisticated electorate in Scotland. People knew
:14:21. > :14:25.what they were voting for. This wasn't about who would be Prime
:14:26. > :14:29.Minister. This was about who would be the First Minister of Scotland,
:14:30. > :14:32.and who would be the Leader of the Opposition in Scotland. I made a
:14:33. > :14:38.very clear campaign of what I would do if I were to be the Leader of the
:14:39. > :14:42.Opposition, how I would hold the SNP to account, how I would say no to a
:14:43. > :14:47.second independence referendum, and how I would concentrate on the
:14:48. > :14:52.things that matter to ordinary Scots. Let's not go over the
:14:53. > :14:57.campaign again! I could probably say those lines in my sleep! In what
:14:58. > :14:58.ways to you now regard yourself as distinctive and different from the
:14:59. > :15:08.English Tories? Since I took over as leader I was
:15:09. > :15:10.the first leader in Scotland to be the leader of the entire party in
:15:11. > :15:20.Scotland. In terms of fundraising, Pelissie... What made you different?
:15:21. > :15:25.You had seen me takes on different policy decisions from my colleagues
:15:26. > :15:30.down south, if you compare the manifestos you will see differences,
:15:31. > :15:34.for one example, the right to buy for housing association houses. We
:15:35. > :15:37.don't think that is appropriate for the housing market in Scotland. How
:15:38. > :15:43.colleagues did down south. There is a distinct difference that. I wonder
:15:44. > :15:53.if it was a Scottish Conservative idea or not. The title was Ruth
:15:54. > :15:56.Davidson, a strong opposition. It did say Scottish Conservatives twice
:15:57. > :16:02.on the front cover. And multiply many times inside. In the Times, the
:16:03. > :16:06.roof, the whole truth and nothing but the roof. You created a new Tory
:16:07. > :16:17.brand. -- Ruth the. We don't fight just as conservatives
:16:18. > :16:21.in Scotland but conservatives in the Unionist party. The echoes of the
:16:22. > :16:24.Unionist party played quite loud in this election was that they were
:16:25. > :16:28.looking for people who would unequivocally stand up for the
:16:29. > :16:32.decision we made just 20 months ago. I think that was an area we fought
:16:33. > :16:36.strongly on now we have had some success. While I recognise a win for
:16:37. > :16:41.the Scottish National party, they are now in a third term of
:16:42. > :16:44.government, and I congratulated the First Minister, what was really
:16:45. > :16:48.significant about the result is we managed to stop them having a
:16:49. > :16:54.majority. They slipped back. This idea that they didn't put a clear
:16:55. > :16:58.mandate for a referendum in their manifesto, unlike in 2011, and now
:16:59. > :17:03.they don't even have a majority, that takes the second referendum off
:17:04. > :17:06.the table for five years and give Scotland's stability. You say a
:17:07. > :17:10.second referendum is off the cards and I understand the reasons why. I
:17:11. > :17:14.suggest that means unionists in the rest of the UK you would like to
:17:15. > :17:20.back Brexit can now do so without the fear of the second independence
:17:21. > :17:23.referendum? I argued all through this campaign irrespective of what
:17:24. > :17:29.happens with a referendum on Europe, that is not trigger point for a
:17:30. > :17:33.second referendum. I haven't heard anyone in the SNP argued
:17:34. > :17:41.successfully if there are was a Brexit... It is important we stay
:17:42. > :17:45.part of the union in which we export so many goods and services. I have
:17:46. > :17:51.yet to have anyone in the SNP explain it. But I look forward in
:17:52. > :17:59.the coming weeks to hear them make the argument for that. Last time the
:18:00. > :18:02.SNP were a majority government the Scottish Tories gave them crucial
:18:03. > :18:07.support on budget votes. Can you see us of doing that again? I think
:18:08. > :18:16.times move on. The SNP is no longer led by Alex Salmond... We know that.
:18:17. > :18:21.I think we will be robust. I will seek to put forward alternatives. I
:18:22. > :18:24.want to be as positive as I can be, not just crudely and blocking and
:18:25. > :18:28.questioning, although all of that is important. The debate we haven't had
:18:29. > :18:31.in Scotland for the last five years, but I want to put forward
:18:32. > :18:35.alternatives. One area I think we can make common cause is reforming
:18:36. > :18:39.education, it is a disgrace our school performances have gone back
:18:40. > :18:51.in Scotland in recent years. We used to have the best education system
:18:52. > :18:54.anywhere in the world. That is no longer the case. There is a lot I
:18:55. > :18:56.can do to try and bring the SNP onto our ground. I managed in the last
:18:57. > :18:59.parliament coming from third, in terms of school testing and money
:19:00. > :19:02.not just being handed to local authorities, I think we got a wink,
:19:03. > :19:04.teach first. There are real areas I think we can help the debate in
:19:05. > :19:09.Scotland and put forward is positive or turn at its. You shouldn't
:19:10. > :19:13.overplay your part. The SNP is still the dominant party in Holyrood, you
:19:14. > :19:17.are second, but all the other opposition parties are to the left
:19:18. > :19:21.of you. You're still a minority voice and won't be able to count on
:19:22. > :19:26.the opposition, other opposition parties ganging up on your side? We
:19:27. > :19:34.are a hugely important voice precisely because of the other side
:19:35. > :19:36.in voices you have identified. The First Minister, like the Prime
:19:37. > :19:39.Minister has competing and conflicting areas of interest: how
:19:40. > :19:42.one way or another. You are right to say Nicola Sturgeon has that she
:19:43. > :19:47.wants to make Scotland the highest in the UK. The other parties are
:19:48. > :19:52.trying to drag a further left, taking more money out of the pocket
:19:53. > :19:55.of ordinary working Scots. Our voice is crucial to pull her back to the
:19:56. > :19:59.centre, saying that is not the way to look after the Beeb all working
:20:00. > :20:04.hard and deserve a break in Scotland but also not the way to look after a
:20:05. > :20:10.Scottish economy. Last month's figures, 20,000 rise in unemployment
:20:11. > :20:14.in the UK, most of which came from Scotland. Our economic growth is a
:20:15. > :20:17.fraction of the rest of the UK. We need to become a more competitive
:20:18. > :20:21.country. That is an odd and I can make very strongly. Let me ask you
:20:22. > :20:26.this, when you look at the huge powers that have been devolved
:20:27. > :20:29.Scotland, and more on their way over schools, education, hospitals,
:20:30. > :20:36.health, transport and now a chunk of tax as well, is it ever conceivable
:20:37. > :20:40.that a Scottish MP from a Scottish constituency could ever again be
:20:41. > :20:44.Prime Minister of the United given that they would have no
:20:45. > :20:50.responsibility for so many things that affect the rest of the UK? Of
:20:51. > :20:54.course. Typically in the last Labour government you had a health minister
:20:55. > :21:01.who came from Lanarkshire in John Reid you had a chance of that came
:21:02. > :21:06.from Edinburgh. Is that conceivable again, that you could have a Home
:21:07. > :21:10.Secretary from a Scottish constituency, where everything on
:21:11. > :21:13.the home front is essentially devolved to Scotland? It was
:21:14. > :21:18.devolved at the time it was being taken over by John Reid. I know he
:21:19. > :21:24.played Parliamentary bingo and got a lot of big jobs. If you have English
:21:25. > :21:30.votes for English laws, a Scottish Prime Minister wouldn't even get to
:21:31. > :21:35.vote on his own policies. Andrew, you and I have talked about this
:21:36. > :21:38.many times. You saw our Strathclyde commission report, the basis that
:21:39. > :21:43.the Smith commission, the devolution of all these powers on one of the
:21:44. > :21:47.key aspects of that, looking at great detail with constitutional
:21:48. > :21:51.expert, was to ensure it wouldn't divest Scotland away from the rest
:21:52. > :21:56.of the UK. I don't think it does. In terms of all of the big jobs, I
:21:57. > :22:01.think you will see another Scottish Prime Minister, or from Wales or
:22:02. > :22:03.Northern Ireland. Talent will out. Do you think you've Zac Goldsmith
:22:04. > :22:11.bought the kind of campaign you fought in Scotland the Conservatives
:22:12. > :22:15.might have held on to the mayor? I don't qualify to talk about that,
:22:16. > :22:20.I've only been to London once this year. I knew I had a job to deliver
:22:21. > :22:23.here in Scotland. Even though I am a political geek I didn't watch the
:22:24. > :22:27.London mayoral race that closely I had a job to do the. Thank you.
:22:28. > :22:31.So Labour ended the week with a big result to feel cheerful about thanks
:22:32. > :22:33.to Sadiq Khan's thumping win over Zac Goldsmith to become
:22:34. > :22:43.The numeric macro has used his big job in office to reach out beyond
:22:44. > :22:44.the activists, which sounds like criticism of Jeremy Corbyn. He was
:22:45. > :22:49.talking to Andrew Marr earlier. We in Labour, our mission is to
:22:50. > :22:52.improve people's lives, and change We only do that
:22:53. > :22:55.by winning elections, by having a mandate
:22:56. > :22:57.to improve people's lives. What are the challenges
:22:58. > :22:58.facing Londoners? How do you tackle
:22:59. > :23:00.the housing crisis? How do you ensure we have a modern
:23:01. > :23:03.and affordable transport system? How do young people get
:23:04. > :23:05.the skills of tomorrow? We only do that by speaking to those
:23:06. > :23:11.people who previously By speaking to Tory voters,
:23:12. > :23:15.to those outside of our tent. And my point is, we've got to
:23:16. > :23:17.stop talking about ourselves. Well, to discuss this we're joined
:23:18. > :23:21.from Leeds by Caroline Flint, she was of course a former minister
:23:22. > :23:31.and was in Ed Miliband's Welcome back to the programme
:23:32. > :23:35.Caroline Flint. Let me put Sadiq Khan's quote to you. So-called
:23:36. > :23:39.natural Labour voters alone will never be enough to win a general
:23:40. > :23:44.election. Have you seen any progress from Thursday's results that Jeremy
:23:45. > :23:49.Corbyn's Labour Party is making progress in appealing to beyond the
:23:50. > :23:52.faithful? We need to make a lot more progress, Andrew. Although we had a
:23:53. > :23:57.fantastic result in London with Sadiq Khan, and I have to say the
:23:58. > :24:02.Tory campaign was both shameful and disgusting. We won in Bristol with
:24:03. > :24:05.Marvin and held onto councils like Crawley, Southampton and Redditch
:24:06. > :24:10.and Hastings, where I have been many times. It is not enough. We have to
:24:11. > :24:14.show that we are a party that is competitively challenging the
:24:15. > :24:17.government. That is why, as Sadiq said in his interview in the
:24:18. > :24:22.Observer today, we have to reach out beyond the big cities and reach out
:24:23. > :24:26.to those people who voted Conservative to vote Labour. Then we
:24:27. > :24:29.can have big politics for a big election and when it. What you say
:24:30. > :24:35.to John McDonnell, been a bit too in your party, saying I think we are on
:24:36. > :24:39.a steady course for victory in 2020. We are laying the foundations for
:24:40. > :24:44.that long haul victory in 2020. Is he right or wrong? I believe in
:24:45. > :24:48.honest straight talking politics. John McDonnell said in the run-up to
:24:49. > :24:53.these elections, we are looking to hang on. Looking to hang on isn't
:24:54. > :24:57.enough. This is the worst result for an opposition party after a general
:24:58. > :25:03.election in 30th. The year after Michael foot was elected we gained
:25:04. > :25:09.1000 council seats. Tony Blair 1800, Ed Miliband over 800. We actually
:25:10. > :25:13.had a loss of 28. In fact, the Tories, when you look at directly
:25:14. > :25:19.contested elections, gained three. It doesn't take away from the hard
:25:20. > :25:20.work on the ground by Labour councillors, Parliamentary
:25:21. > :25:25.candidates and members in these elections, but we need to be making
:25:26. > :25:30.far more inroads to be within an opportunity to win in 2020. That is
:25:31. > :25:34.the challenge for Jeremy. He deserves the right to lead, won the
:25:35. > :25:38.election, but he has to show, what have the loan from these elections?
:25:39. > :25:42.Will he talked people like Sadiq Khan to think about how we broaden
:25:43. > :25:47.our appeal so we can be in a very strong position, 2020. How long has
:25:48. > :25:51.it got to learn these lessons? Our members were only elected in
:25:52. > :25:56.September last year. I said he won on a huge mandate. He has not only
:25:57. > :25:59.won the right to be leader, he is the leader and our members believe
:26:00. > :26:03.Labour leaders should have the time to prove themselves. But, you know
:26:04. > :26:07.we know when the election is going to be, that is something relatively
:26:08. > :26:11.new to our politics in Britain. We also know this election we have to
:26:12. > :26:14.be honest about what the positive aspects and also about what didn't
:26:15. > :26:19.work and where we need to gain ground. How long have you got?
:26:20. > :26:23.People will be looking to hear from Jeremy what he's run and how he will
:26:24. > :26:26.take us forward and they will be looking... We have elections next
:26:27. > :26:30.year and the year after, but we have to ask ourselves is a party. I think
:26:31. > :26:34.this is a really big task for Jeremy Tilse. We are having a debate about
:26:35. > :26:39.what is the Labour Party for? We have to decide, are we a party of
:26:40. > :26:41.protest or a mainstream, democratic socialist party which is
:26:42. > :26:46.competitively challenging for government? If we are the latter,
:26:47. > :26:51.which we should be, we need to have the politics and the leadership to
:26:52. > :26:55.actually talk about that much, much more and take us board. That is
:26:56. > :27:00.really important for all of us. We have to ask ourselves is well, we
:27:01. > :27:06.have ten years of opposition here. We don't need another five on top of
:27:07. > :27:09.that. John McDonnell thinks you begrudge things. He says, for
:27:10. > :27:14.goodness sake get behind the leader, it is time to put up or shut up. I
:27:15. > :27:23.am someone who loves the Labour Party. I joined in 1979, I know what
:27:24. > :27:28.it's like... Put up or shut up? I am putting up. I put up in the House of
:27:29. > :27:32.Commons, where I am working with John McDonnell's team on tax
:27:33. > :27:36.transparency measures. We have a Tory party that should be absolutely
:27:37. > :27:40.on the ropes. A jet measures they had to drop on tax credits, Sunday
:27:41. > :27:45.trading they have had to drop, and I knew turned since the last general
:27:46. > :27:50.election. The education policy in tatters, the Panama papers, it goes
:27:51. > :27:56.on and on. The truth is we need to be making sure that the public know
:27:57. > :28:00.about that and we have an alternative to that. At the moment,
:28:01. > :28:04.despite all those issues facing the Tory party, we didn't make as much
:28:05. > :28:08.progress as we showed. Let's be honest about these results, let's be
:28:09. > :28:12.honest about we need to reach out beyond our core vote, just as Sadiq
:28:13. > :28:18.Khan said. I hope John McDonnell will back me on that. Lets see if we
:28:19. > :28:21.can continue with this honesty. Given Scotland is now effectively a
:28:22. > :28:28.no go area for Labour, how could you ever hope to win the 2020 election
:28:29. > :28:34.on England alone? You would need a 13 point lead, a bigger lead than
:28:35. > :28:39.Tony Blair had. That is just not conceivable. It is a massive
:28:40. > :28:42.challenge, Andrew. In Scotland are very disappointing night for
:28:43. > :28:48.Scotland. I think how Scottish friends all know that the way back
:28:49. > :28:51.for Labour will take some time. I wouldn't blame Jeremy Corbyn for
:28:52. > :28:56.what happened in Scotland either. You are right. My understanding is
:28:57. > :29:00.if we don't make the sort of comeback we need to in Scotland, in
:29:01. > :29:05.the numbers were used to be able to rely on, we need to gain something
:29:06. > :29:09.like 100 seats, 100 seats in England to have a majority. We need to have
:29:10. > :29:14.that sort of talking within the party. Activists realise protests in
:29:15. > :29:17.themselves will not be enough. Labour votes won't be enough and I'm
:29:18. > :29:21.looking to Jeremy Corbyn to provide the leadership that.
:29:22. > :29:31.A final question. What you say to several Tory MPs who have said to
:29:32. > :29:36.me, and I quote, Mr Corbyn's survival is the single most
:29:37. > :29:42.important thing for Tories for 2020? If we are not winning elections,
:29:43. > :29:46.they will say that. In many respects, the Tories were probably
:29:47. > :29:50.relatively relieved. Despite the shameful campaign they ran in
:29:51. > :29:54.London, given everything that's been going on in government in the last
:29:55. > :29:58.eight months, they should be quite relieved in terms of the result. We
:29:59. > :30:03.need to show them that Jeremy can stand up and face those criticisms,
:30:04. > :30:07.and the way he does that is by reaching out, as Sadiq Khan has
:30:08. > :30:12.done, as have many councils across the country in keeping their seats,
:30:13. > :30:14.and do the right thing for Labour. We need to move on, Caroline. Thank
:30:15. > :30:16.you. So that's the view of one former
:30:17. > :30:19.member of the Labour frontbench - we're joined now by the current
:30:20. > :30:21.shadow energy minister Clive Lewis, he's in our Norwich studio -
:30:22. > :30:30.welcome to the Sunday Politics. Morning, Andrew. Caroline Flint was
:30:31. > :30:34.saying that George Osborne's latest budget is in ruins, the Tories are
:30:35. > :30:37.tearing themselves apart over Europe, Iain Duncan Smith resigned
:30:38. > :30:42.because of what the government is doing to the working poor. The best
:30:43. > :30:50.Mr Corbyn could say was, we hung on. Is that good enough? Let's have a
:30:51. > :30:56.look at the focus of the media to -- the media and the punditry. It was
:30:57. > :31:00.issued in the Labour Party that was the core focus for you guys. You
:31:01. > :31:05.brought that on yourselves. The bottom line is, at the start of your
:31:06. > :31:09.programme, you began that the results of the Labour Party, when
:31:10. > :31:14.actually, we were up 2% in the national share vote and the Tories
:31:15. > :31:18.were down 5%. Yet you in your commentators started on how it was a
:31:19. > :31:24.result for Labour. I'm not saying it was anything to shout about. But
:31:25. > :31:27.let's look at the results. You need 13 points to win, so I would suggest
:31:28. > :31:31.that one or two points is neither here nor there was yellow Caroline
:31:32. > :31:36.Flint hit the nail on the head in that we have a massive task in front
:31:37. > :31:42.of us. But infighting is not the way forward. That is not going to help
:31:43. > :31:46.us achieve victory in 2020. We all know it is a massive uphill
:31:47. > :31:51.struggle. We need to think how we can make the best effort to win in
:31:52. > :31:56.2020, and that is what the next few weeks and months need to be about. I
:31:57. > :32:00.agree with with so much of what Sadiq Khan said in his interview.
:32:01. > :32:09.Why doesn't Jeremy Corbyn meet with him? I think he will. But he won the
:32:10. > :32:14.capital city, by 14 points. It was an incredible victory, the first
:32:15. > :32:20.Muslim leader of a major city in Europe. And Mr Corbyn, we haven't
:32:21. > :32:26.seen him anywhere near him yet. It is a fantastic victory. Sadiq Khan
:32:27. > :32:32.nominated Jeremy. He didn't vote for him, which is a brilliantly
:32:33. > :32:38.principled position. Corbyn and Khan are comrades and good friends. They
:32:39. > :32:44.have a lot to learn from each other. Sadiq Khan won because he was with
:32:45. > :32:48.Jeremy Corbyn. All the people in London who are supporting the Labour
:32:49. > :32:53.Party under Jeremy Corbyn and reaching out. I am sure that Sadiq
:32:54. > :33:00.and Jeremy will meet in the near future. It is certainly unusual.
:33:01. > :33:04.Caroline Flint has just told us that the Conservatives should be happy
:33:05. > :33:09.and relieved by Thursday's results. I don't think they should. In Exeter
:33:10. > :33:15.they lost four seats. In Ipswich, there were seats we didn't even win
:33:16. > :33:20.in 97. Their share of the vote is down 5%. They didn't make the games
:33:21. > :33:24.expected in Wales. I don't think it is a fantastic result for them at
:33:25. > :33:34.all. I expect the Conservatives will try to turn the focus back on to
:33:35. > :33:37.Labour, but I don't think they've got anything to crow about either at
:33:38. > :33:39.the moment. What do you say to Ian Murray, the Scottish Secretary, the
:33:40. > :33:43.only Labour MP in Scotland. He says, I don't think the public see the UK
:33:44. > :33:50.Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn as being a credible party of future
:33:51. > :33:55.government in 2020. I listened to the whole interview, and I respect
:33:56. > :34:01.Ian Murray great real. I heard his statement. I think he was saying,
:34:02. > :34:05.basically, where we are as a party at the moment isn't good enough. I
:34:06. > :34:10.don't think you'll find anyone in the Labour Party who would disagree
:34:11. > :34:14.with that. We need to move forward and consolidate. These results were
:34:15. > :34:18.not the disaster that you and the punditry were predicting. We were
:34:19. > :34:25.told 150 or 200 seats lost -- would be lost. We were told Jeremy Corbyn
:34:26. > :34:29.wouldn't win, and then he won with a landslide. We won -- we heard that
:34:30. > :34:35.the old by-election would be a disaster. And he won. I think the
:34:36. > :34:45.thing to think about now is that politics is in flux. In the US, we
:34:46. > :34:50.have a socialist running Hillary Clinton to the wire, but then you
:34:51. > :34:53.have Donald Trump standing as well. People are concerned and angry, and
:34:54. > :34:58.things are changing, and the punditry needs to take that into
:34:59. > :35:03.account and reflect that things are changing. We will take that into
:35:04. > :35:08.account. I never use the word disaster to talk about Labour's
:35:09. > :35:14.performance on Thursday. Let's stick with that. I put to you that surely
:35:15. > :35:20.the real lesson from Scotland is this - if you continue to attack
:35:21. > :35:26.north of the border, as you have been, you need to do better in
:35:27. > :35:31.England than even Tony Blair did in 97, and that, I put to you, is
:35:32. > :35:36.frankly fantasy. Let's look at Scotland. It was a very difficult
:35:37. > :35:41.night for us. I would rather you looked at England and tell me how
:35:42. > :35:46.you will do well. This is the issue - what we have done in this weeks
:35:47. > :35:53.election is consolidate our vote in 2015 and improve it by 2%. We now
:35:54. > :35:58.need to move forward. We now have next to no chance of winning in 2020
:35:59. > :36:03.if we remain a divided house, and that is what has happened at the
:36:04. > :36:09.moment. What we can all learn from Sadiq was explaining is -- in his
:36:10. > :36:14.interview is that we have consolidated our vote in 2015 and
:36:15. > :36:18.improved it, and now we have to move on small businesses, to those who
:36:19. > :36:23.are affected by the government cuts on public services. We need to reach
:36:24. > :36:26.out to people who have voted Conservative in the past. I think it
:36:27. > :36:33.is a message that Jeremy Corbyn has two and will listen to. But the key
:36:34. > :36:35.thing is that a house divided has no chance of being able to do that in
:36:36. > :36:39.2020. Thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am -
:36:40. > :36:41.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:36:42. > :36:44.in Scotland, who leave us now we're going to be talking
:36:45. > :36:49.about a big week ahead Hello and welcome to
:36:50. > :36:58.the Sunday Politics Wales. As AMs make their way
:36:59. > :37:01.to Cardiff Bay, what next The man who chairs the Tories
:37:02. > :37:05.here tells me he wants answers after his party
:37:06. > :37:11.lost seats on Thursday. Labour retained 29 seats,
:37:12. > :37:15.but lost the Rhondda to Plaid. Elsewhere the Tories and Lib Dems
:37:16. > :37:18.were disappointed to have lost James Williams now,
:37:19. > :37:33.on where the parties go next. After a frantic few days and
:37:34. > :37:37.sleepless nights, the dust is beginning to settle on the election.
:37:38. > :37:43.But there are still big questions that need answering. The biggest of
:37:44. > :37:47.which, what will Welsh Labour do? Having lost just one seat, will
:37:48. > :37:52.Carwyn Jones and his party decide to do as they did last time round and
:37:53. > :37:55.go it alone? I am quite relaxed about us going as a minority. You
:37:56. > :38:00.get some strength from that because you know you have to do a deal with
:38:01. > :38:03.people. It is not so difficult to where we were a few weeks with 30
:38:04. > :38:08.seats and very similar to the SNP in Scotland. I am expecting there will
:38:09. > :38:14.be a minority Labour government formed in the coming days or weeks.
:38:15. > :38:17.After party leader Leanne Wood 's extraordinary victory, Plaid Cymru
:38:18. > :38:22.finds itself back in second place. And as it stands, I detect little
:38:23. > :38:28.appetite amongst the party 's top Raster formally joining coalition
:38:29. > :38:31.with Labour. The Welsh Conservatives on the other hand have another
:38:32. > :38:36.question to answer. There's Andrew RT Davies stay on as leader? This is
:38:37. > :38:40.not that the time for knee jerk reaction. As a party, we will be
:38:41. > :38:43.looking at this result and wondering why we did not quite make the
:38:44. > :38:48.strides we were hoping to but equally we did not lose any first
:38:49. > :38:53.past the post seats. We are competitive in seats we have never
:38:54. > :38:56.won before. It is not a disaster. The Welsh Conservative Party is
:38:57. > :38:59.still here and here in force in Wales but we need to look at why we
:39:00. > :39:03.did not quite make up rate we were hoping to. One Conservative source
:39:04. > :39:08.tells me that senior party members are quote rallying around Andrew RT
:39:09. > :39:12.Davies, saying that the feeling is that he fought a good campaign and
:39:13. > :39:16.was not to blame for the party 's poor results. One of the parties
:39:17. > :39:20.Assembly Members tells me that the party needs to get away from this
:39:21. > :39:25.football culture of sacking the manager after a bad result. But they
:39:26. > :39:30.do expect a piece one member of the group in the assembly to challenge
:39:31. > :39:33.Mr Davies' leadership post you would think Ukip having entered the
:39:34. > :39:38.assembly for the first time would be busy celebrating. But they too are
:39:39. > :39:45.pondering their leadership. The leader of the party in Wales is
:39:46. > :39:47.myself. We will I'm sure be deciding who will be leading the group
:39:48. > :39:51.amongst ourselves at our first group meeting which we will be having on
:39:52. > :39:57.Tuesday. Do you expect to be challenged? I would not be surprised
:39:58. > :40:01.if I was but that is healthy in democracy. I have no problem with
:40:02. > :40:04.that. I have it on good authority that Neil Hamilton will challenge
:40:05. > :40:09.Nathan Gill for leadership of the Ukip group in the assembly when the
:40:10. > :40:13.party Assembly Members meet for the first time on Tuesday morning. I
:40:14. > :40:17.understand that Nathan Gill is confident that he has the numbers
:40:18. > :40:22.and the support to carry the vote. Another question that needs
:40:23. > :40:27.answering, who will replace Dame Rosemary Butler as designing offers
:40:28. > :40:31.a question with macro? I am told Kirsty Williams has been interested
:40:32. > :40:36.in the post in the past but the name keeps cropping up is David melding,
:40:37. > :40:41.a deputy in the last assembly. I am told he is interested in the post
:40:42. > :40:44.and will would knock we will see if he has enough cross-party support.
:40:45. > :40:48.Having answered some questions, the election nevertheless has posed
:40:49. > :40:50.others. Perhaps we will have some certainty in the coming days.
:40:51. > :40:53.Plenty of food for thought there, and here to chew it over
:40:54. > :40:56.with me are two new kids on the Assembly block.
:40:57. > :40:58.Jeremy Miles was elected for Labour in Neath,
:40:59. > :41:00.and Sian Gwenllian who's the new Plaid Cymru AM for Arfon.
:41:01. > :41:12.Thank you both very much for joining me this morning. Congratulations on
:41:13. > :41:18.being voted in. We heard Carwyn Jones saying this morning, a tough
:41:19. > :41:21.election for Labour, as good a result as you think it was, but
:41:22. > :41:26.lessons need to be learned. What do you think that means? The first
:41:27. > :41:32.thing is against great results the last election, 30 seats, it is a
:41:33. > :41:37.great result this time, to manage to get 29 seats. I think that is the
:41:38. > :41:42.first point to note. At underlying those headline results, there have
:41:43. > :41:46.been swings against Labour and indeed against Plaid Cymru and the
:41:47. > :41:51.Conservative Party in a number of constituencies and I think it is
:41:52. > :41:56.important to understand what the electorate are saying to us in that
:41:57. > :42:02.context. Were you surprised some of the constituencies did not go to the
:42:03. > :42:06.Conservatives? And to Plaid Cymru? None of them managed to take seats,
:42:07. > :42:10.with the notable exception of the Rhondda. I think it is read as a
:42:11. > :42:16.that 29 was the upper end of expectations and that was as a
:42:17. > :42:18.result, a very good result. But the campaigns in those seats, take
:42:19. > :42:25.Llanelli for example, Lee Waters is a strong candidate and that paid
:42:26. > :42:31.off. The party made the right judgment as to which of the seated
:42:32. > :42:34.wanted to focus its energies in. Sian Gwenllian, the Rhondda is
:42:35. > :42:38.something that many Plaid Cymru supporters will be delighted about
:42:39. > :42:43.but apart from that personal debt three four Leanne Wood, is there a
:42:44. > :42:50.disappointment that really on a national level Plaid Cymru went up
:42:51. > :42:55.just over 1% Qusair Maki did not make a great breakthrough. It was an
:42:56. > :43:01.excellent night for Plaid Cymru with the notable success four Leanne
:43:02. > :43:06.Wood, it is still a very sweet for us as members of Plaid Cymru. But we
:43:07. > :43:10.had successes in Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, Carmarthen, Cardiff
:43:11. > :43:15.West, where the percentages increase. But gaining support is one
:43:16. > :43:22.thing, unless you take seated means nothing. No wonder we were very
:43:23. > :43:26.close in Aberconwy and Llanelli. But we have now a fantastic platform on
:43:27. > :43:32.which to build and we have a fantastic team of people in the
:43:33. > :43:40.assembly and we are ready to be working hard and also to be the
:43:41. > :43:44.opposition, challenging the Labour government. There are clear messages
:43:45. > :43:47.coming from the electorate that they may have voted for Labour but that
:43:48. > :43:51.does not mean to say that they are completely happy with what has been
:43:52. > :43:56.going on over the last 17 years. The messages we are getting through is
:43:57. > :43:59.that they need now to really get to grips with some of the problems in
:44:00. > :44:03.education and the health service and the economy and we will be holding
:44:04. > :44:09.them to account on that. As you would expect them to do. Is there a
:44:10. > :44:14.feeling that in those areas like part of the valleys, Blaenau Gwent,
:44:15. > :44:16.down to 600 between you and Plaid Cymru, in the north-east of Wales,
:44:17. > :44:20.the Conservatives are closing on, that they did not make those big
:44:21. > :44:24.rigs whose this time but the writing is on the wall very much tearing
:44:25. > :44:27.future elections? I think if you look at what has happened in
:44:28. > :44:32.different constituencies, where the Labour Party 's vote has gone down,
:44:33. > :44:36.the beneficiaries is different in different constituencies. That is
:44:37. > :44:39.why I say the time for making the assessment on this is not really on
:44:40. > :44:44.the hoof, just after the election. There needs to be a sober reflection
:44:45. > :44:48.on the pattern across Wales. So that we learn the right messages. It is
:44:49. > :44:52.fantastic to have the result that we have had. Other parties have not
:44:53. > :44:57.woken through in the way it was expected, or at least they expected,
:44:58. > :45:00.but it is incumbent upon us to reflect on why those majorities have
:45:01. > :45:04.gone down in some places. What will change? You have the votes but is
:45:05. > :45:08.people do seem to be wanting a change. We have seen problems with
:45:09. > :45:12.health and education and so on. There's anything change now from a
:45:13. > :45:16.Labour group point of view in the assembly? You take time to reflect
:45:17. > :45:20.on some of those policies or do you think it is good to be business as
:45:21. > :45:23.usual? It was laid out in the manifesto what we planned to do if
:45:24. > :45:29.we were in government, as we will be for the next five years. And the
:45:30. > :45:34.task in hand is to implement as much of that as we can. There have been
:45:35. > :45:38.specific commitments in the areas of health, building on the reforms that
:45:39. > :45:42.we have not implemented to date already. There have been commitments
:45:43. > :45:47.on funding in education, a game building on what has been happening
:45:48. > :45:51.in the last assembly. As Carwyn Jones himself said, we were putting
:45:52. > :45:54.ourselves forward in the election as being halfway through a decade of
:45:55. > :45:58.delivery and we want to complete that but there will be conversations
:45:59. > :46:02.with parties as they were in the last assembly in order to make sure
:46:03. > :46:06.that we can deliver as much that manifesto as we possibly can. We had
:46:07. > :46:11.effectively the last assembly 30 seats, one was the presiding
:46:12. > :46:14.officer, Carwyn Jones was able to deliver a programme of government by
:46:15. > :46:20.having discussions with other parties. To get budgets through,
:46:21. > :46:26.Sian Gwenllian, they will be drawing on support perhaps from Plaid Cymru.
:46:27. > :46:35.What would be on top of your list of priorities? Of course, we will be
:46:36. > :46:45.happy to cooperate so long as we feel that we can get deals that are
:46:46. > :46:51.good for the people of Wales. My personal view is that we now should
:46:52. > :46:54.move forward on the small business rates policy for example where there
:46:55. > :46:58.is consensus across the board that we should be cutting those business
:46:59. > :47:04.rates and childcare is another area as well. There is consensus on some
:47:05. > :47:08.of those policies. The M4 relief road? Is that something you would be
:47:09. > :47:17.keen to sort of maybe water down the plans there? Well, getting the
:47:18. > :47:22.balance right on infrastructure projects between North and South
:47:23. > :47:25.Wales is absolutely crucial now. If Labour are really going to prove to
:47:26. > :47:29.the people of North Wales that they do care about North Wales, they
:47:30. > :47:35.should now put aside their ideas for the M4 relief road, the option that
:47:36. > :47:40.they are trying to back, and really start thinking about improving the
:47:41. > :47:42.infrastructure in North Wales and pushing for the electrification of
:47:43. > :47:46.the railways as well. Is not something that should be considered
:47:47. > :47:51.quitting Mark we made commitments in the manifesto to the Eira roads in
:47:52. > :47:57.North Wales, the Metro in North Wales. There are infrastructure
:47:58. > :48:00.commitments in North Wales. The Metro North Wales is not going to
:48:01. > :48:06.happen. That is just something that was a gimmick during the election. I
:48:07. > :48:14.want to see the A55 improvements there to the infrastructure. Without
:48:15. > :48:18.going into too much detail on particular projects, is it something
:48:19. > :48:22.that there will have to be areas now, you say about your manifesto,
:48:23. > :48:26.you have not got a majority, so some things are going to have to change?
:48:27. > :48:30.Do you see room for manoeuvre on these things question mark Carwyn
:48:31. > :48:34.Jones is having discussions with other parties. What those
:48:35. > :48:39.discussions among two is in tidying matter for him and the objectives
:48:40. > :48:43.and him. In order to get our programme through last assembly
:48:44. > :48:47.without an absolute majority, conversations have to happen and I
:48:48. > :48:51.expect that were continuing the next SMB. It is the right way to deal
:48:52. > :48:54.with things. Thank you for coming in this morning.
:48:55. > :48:57.There are two of the new Assembly Members, and there will be
:48:58. > :48:59.almost two dozen newbies in the new session.
:49:00. > :49:02.We know who they are and which parties they represent.
:49:03. > :49:04.But what about the figures which haven't had an airing?
:49:05. > :49:07.Rhodri Lewis now with your cut out and keep guide to who's
:49:08. > :49:17.Over 60 who will be coming Cardiff Bay next week to begin work,
:49:18. > :49:19.22, more than a third, are new to the job.
:49:20. > :49:21.Well, OK, it is 21 plus one actually.
:49:22. > :49:24.Dai Lloyd is back after retaking the seat he lost five years ago.
:49:25. > :49:26.The number of women has increased by one.
:49:27. > :49:30.My maths tells me that means there are therefore 35 men.
:49:31. > :49:33.Minority ethnic group is make up about 4.5% of Wales' population
:49:34. > :49:35.but only two will be in the new assembly.
:49:36. > :49:37.Oscar Ashgar and Vaughan Gething both served last time round.
:49:38. > :49:40.Hannah Blythyn, Jeremy Miles and Adam Price are the first openly
:49:41. > :49:43.The Stonewall group said that was a milestone in democracy.
:49:44. > :49:48.And Adam Price is also one of seven former MPs now in Cardiff Bay.
:49:49. > :49:51.Three were already there but now there is also Huw Irranca-Davies,
:49:52. > :49:54.who gave up his Commons seat, and he has been joined by two
:49:55. > :49:56.others, who were kicked out by voters elsewhere.
:49:57. > :50:06.And there will be drinks all round at the House of Lords
:50:07. > :50:07.as peers celebrate doubling their representation.
:50:08. > :50:09.Labour Eluned Morgan, AKA the Baroness Morgan of Ely,
:50:10. > :50:11.joins Dafydd Elis-Thomas, Lord Elis-Thomas of Nant Conwy,
:50:12. > :50:14.adding membership of the altogether younger Welsh institution to that
:50:15. > :50:25.With Edwina Hart and Huw Lewis standing down and Leighton Andrews
:50:26. > :50:27.out, Carwyn Jones has plenty of opportunity to
:50:28. > :50:30.Could this be the biggest reshuffle seen in many years?
:50:31. > :50:44.So something there of what we can expect in the days to come,
:50:45. > :50:47.They lost seats and support on Thursday.
:50:48. > :50:49.The first and only time they went backwards since devolution.
:50:50. > :50:51.Their Chairman in Wales is Jonathan Evans.
:50:52. > :50:54.I spoke to him a little earlier and began by asking him how
:50:55. > :51:06.disappointing the results were for his party.
:51:07. > :51:12.It is disappointing. I would prefer to be chairman of a party that
:51:13. > :51:15.continued to add members of the assembly and add votes. Having said
:51:16. > :51:21.that, we have to recognise this was always gone to be a difficult
:51:22. > :51:23.election for us. Firstly, the UK Independence Party was standing in
:51:24. > :51:26.every constituency in Wales and they have not done that previously. Polls
:51:27. > :51:32.were indicating they were likely to go beyond the 7% threshold that
:51:33. > :51:36.would win them regional seats. And date of our 20 regional seats are
:51:37. > :51:40.held by the Conservatives. We were always likely to be under pressure
:51:41. > :51:47.in regional seats. It was always gone to be your strategy to target
:51:48. > :51:54.the constituencies. You gained constituencies last time. What went
:51:55. > :51:56.wrong. The first thing to say is that we do not start from the
:51:57. > :52:00.position that we had last time around. We start from the position
:52:01. > :52:06.of the last assembly election in those seats because voters in Wales
:52:07. > :52:09.now they vote somewhat differently in assembly elections to
:52:10. > :52:14.Parliamentary elections. For instance, if you look at a seat like
:52:15. > :52:18.Cardiff North, we do not start with a 2000 majority. We start with a
:52:19. > :52:22.position where we are couple of thousand votes behind and in some
:52:23. > :52:25.constituencies for example like the Vale of Glamorgan, they of Clwyd and
:52:26. > :52:31.Wrexham, we are starting in a position where we are 4000 behind.
:52:32. > :52:34.Was it just overhyped and over spun by the Conservatives who were
:52:35. > :52:40.saying, look at north-east Wales, in play, the veil, Cardiff North, and
:52:41. > :52:46.what we saw in Cardiff North, Julie Morgan doubling her majority. Was
:52:47. > :52:49.there a touch of arrogance after last year 's election? I think the
:52:50. > :52:55.position is we could see we were making progress in north-east Wales.
:52:56. > :53:00.You do not know how much progress and it has to be said that which
:53:01. > :53:05.even a swing of 9% as you know is an enormous swing. And people were
:53:06. > :53:11.seeing that we were making progress. The final outcome is swings of five,
:53:12. > :53:17.six, 7% in some constituencies in north-east Wales, down in the Gower,
:53:18. > :53:21.a swing to us over 5%. These are enormous swings and I think they
:53:22. > :53:25.were for people. But we did not manage to get over the line and also
:53:26. > :53:31.in a couple of places, we went significantly back. Is Andrew RT
:53:32. > :53:35.Davies the correct man to lead the Conservative group? Let me firstly
:53:36. > :53:40.say he worked very hard in the cause of this election campaign. The whole
:53:41. > :53:43.of the board of the Conservative Party apps recognises this. We were
:53:44. > :53:50.very impressed by his performance and very import -- during the course
:53:51. > :53:54.of the debates. It will be a matter for the Assembly group to decide who
:53:55. > :53:58.ultimately is going to be the leader. As the chairman of the party
:53:59. > :54:01.in Wales, I have already announced that we will be undertaking a review
:54:02. > :54:07.of the last two election campaigns and I think that it may well be that
:54:08. > :54:10.my colleagues in the assembly will be wanting to see what the outcome
:54:11. > :54:14.of that review is before they start raising issues in terms of the
:54:15. > :54:21.leadership. We have already hid grumblings. Semi-members were saying
:54:22. > :54:24.to me they were not happy, Andrew needed to shoulder the burden on the
:54:25. > :54:29.blame for this. Is your message, shut up for now I'd wait for this
:54:30. > :54:35.review to come back? Or should they be questioning him? I do not know
:54:36. > :54:39.who these Assembly Members because they have not been speaking to me
:54:40. > :54:45.and I am the chairman of the party. I speak for all of these people.
:54:46. > :54:49.Now, amongst those activists, it is very likely we are going to divide
:54:50. > :54:55.over the next five weeks. Some of us as I have said in my own case will
:54:56. > :54:57.be there trying to make the case alongside the Secretary of State for
:54:58. > :55:01.Wales for us to aim within the European Union. I think none of us
:55:02. > :55:06.wants to see a situation in which the Conservative Party in Wales
:55:07. > :55:09.spends about five week period arguing about who is leading us in
:55:10. > :55:12.the assembly. Let's focus on dealing with the referendum issue first.
:55:13. > :55:16.Well, it's been a big week for Welsh politics with potentially lots
:55:17. > :55:27.You have had a bit of time to recover. What stood out for you on
:55:28. > :55:31.the night? The single moment was Leanne Wood 's spectacular victory
:55:32. > :55:36.in the Rhondda but for me it was a series of moments and it was a
:55:37. > :55:42.succession of veteran Labour Assembly Members and people like Ann
:55:43. > :55:47.Jones, Julie Morgan, it Jane Hutt, Lesley Griffiths, seeing off the
:55:48. > :55:49.Tory challenge in those constituencies, those marginal
:55:50. > :55:53.constituencies where potentially they really could have been hurt.
:55:54. > :55:58.And it was brutally effective and if you throw into the mix the other
:55:59. > :56:01.marginals where they are against the Lib Dems, Cardiff Central, Plaid
:56:02. > :56:06.Cymru in Llanelli, it was extraordinary. I really thought they
:56:07. > :56:09.would have lost one of those marginals, at least, somewhere along
:56:10. > :56:14.the line but to hold all of them was impressive. There was a good
:56:15. > :56:19.headline, the women what won it for Labour. To what extent do you think
:56:20. > :56:24.the Labour Party were a little lucky this time around? There is no doubt
:56:25. > :56:26.that the steel crisis gave him a platform while Sajid Javid was on a
:56:27. > :56:36.plane in Australia somewhere, Stephen Kinnock, I know he is an MP
:56:37. > :56:41.that he was with the unions and there was a 24-hour period where
:56:42. > :56:45.every interview I saw with Carwyn Jones had the blast furnaces in the
:56:46. > :56:51.background. It just gave them a platform to go on. You throw into
:56:52. > :56:53.the big question about tax affairs of senior Conservative politicians
:56:54. > :56:58.at Westminster and I think the other issue is on the NHS, you had this
:56:59. > :57:02.simmering row about the junior doctors strike in England that
:57:03. > :57:07.actually peaked as we were approaching polls for the assembly
:57:08. > :57:10.election and it just helped him, Carwyn Jones, deflect any criticism
:57:11. > :57:15.of the NHS in Wales. Does that explain away the problems for the
:57:16. > :57:17.Tories? We know there is a postmortem, they will see what went
:57:18. > :57:24.wrong this way round, what do you think? The Tories and all the other
:57:25. > :57:27.opposition parties, a central line of attack that Labour have been in
:57:28. > :57:32.power for 17 years, it is time for a change, clearly was not as effective
:57:33. > :57:36.as they would have liked. From the Conservatives prospective and from
:57:37. > :57:42.Jonathan Evans, talking about squeezing the majorities, but the
:57:43. > :57:45.point is, after taking Gower for the first time in 100 years in the
:57:46. > :57:49.general election last year, taking the rate of fluid on the NHS and
:57:50. > :57:54.this was the election on the state of the Welsh NHS, not a year ago, I
:57:55. > :57:57.think squeezing the majority is not good to be good enough for the
:57:58. > :58:01.Conservatives this time around -- the Vale of Clwyd. It is good to be
:58:02. > :58:03.difficult for Andrew RT Davies. We are told he is reflecting on the
:58:04. > :58:08.future at the moment. Any decision will be wrapped up now in the
:58:09. > :58:12.European Union referendum. Things may be put on hold for the time
:58:13. > :58:17.being. Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems, what can we expect from Ukip? Plaid
:58:18. > :58:23.Cymru broadly come not a great night, very benign conditions, you
:58:24. > :58:26.could argue with Ukip taking chunks out of the labour and Conservative
:58:27. > :58:29.vote. They may not have that in the future. But at least they have
:58:30. > :58:32.something to build on and that result in the Rhondda will give them
:58:33. > :58:37.a degree of confidence. The Lib Dems, what is left to say about the
:58:38. > :58:41.Lib Dems Goschen Markley of easily have a huge rebuilding job and the
:58:42. > :58:47.question is whether things have fallen to such a low levels they can
:58:48. > :58:51.possibly come back. Historically, they have had bounceback ability.
:58:52. > :58:55.That is put to the test time now. Ukip are meeting on Tuesday to talk
:58:56. > :59:02.about the leadership there. Do we think that constant infighting is
:59:03. > :59:06.gone to continue? It is. They are going to be scrapping publicly. They
:59:07. > :59:08.will be scrapping against other people and political journalists
:59:09. > :59:13.like you and I to some extent will have to readjust our antenna in
:59:14. > :59:16.terms of how we recover Assembly politics because they will operate
:59:17. > :59:20.in a totally different way to any of the other parties. Thank you very
:59:21. > :59:22.much. Don't forget you follow
:59:23. > :59:24.all the latest on twitter. But for now that's all from me,
:59:25. > :59:53.diolch am wylio, weeks. Thank you for joining us.
:59:54. > :00:06.Andrew, from here in London, back to you.
:00:07. > :00:15.Welcome back. The panel is assembled, and we will be talking
:00:16. > :00:19.about the EU referendum shortly, particularly about Tory splits in
:00:20. > :00:26.that referendum. First, let's get a reaction to what you have been
:00:27. > :00:30.hearing on the show. Caroline Flint was very interesting. She said the
:00:31. > :00:35.things that the moderates have said before, we will need to do better
:00:36. > :00:38.than this, for example. She also repeated the Tom Watson line, which
:00:39. > :00:44.is that our members think that he deserves more time. I'm not even
:00:45. > :00:48.sure that if he had lost London there would have been a coup. There
:00:49. > :00:53.was lots of talk and rumbles, but there is going to be this one this
:00:54. > :00:58.year for sure. The argument from the moderates is that he needs more time
:00:59. > :01:03.because of the mandate. At no point have the Labour voters who voted for
:01:04. > :01:08.Jeremy Corbyn going to say, time is up now. In 2020 when Labour go to a
:01:09. > :01:13.landslide defeat, they will still not think there was an argument for
:01:14. > :01:18.Corbyn not to be leader. There is nothing to be gained by waiting and
:01:19. > :01:23.everything to be lost. When I hear about people talking about the need
:01:24. > :01:28.for unity and lack of squabbling, it did remind me of the appeals that
:01:29. > :01:32.used to be made among Tories during the Maastricht debacle in the early
:01:33. > :01:37.90s, but it never happened, of course. When there are divisions,
:01:38. > :01:42.you can't hide them. This drama is being played out in public. Tom is
:01:43. > :01:47.right. What the so-called moderates are doing now is much more sensible,
:01:48. > :01:53.which is to say, there won't be a coup. The hints that there might be
:01:54. > :01:59.have stopped. There will not be a coup for now, and they are framing
:02:00. > :02:04.it very sensibly with that Watson line, patience. He has this mandate
:02:05. > :02:08.from last September. It's far too early to challenge the mandate when
:02:09. > :02:12.he is still popular with the membership. But let's frame it to
:02:13. > :02:19.see whether he can be an election winner, and that is fair. If he
:02:20. > :02:23.isn't an election winner, they hope at some point to persuade the
:02:24. > :02:27.membership... That they will not persuade the membership. The polls
:02:28. > :02:31.told the members he would not be an election winner and they voted for
:02:32. > :02:37.him anyway. What was always not a feasible option to them, although
:02:38. > :02:43.some were contemplating it, was moving now. It's too early. There is
:02:44. > :02:51.a caveat there, which is that there is no electoral trigger in 2017. He
:02:52. > :02:54.will not be electorally tested in 2017, as it is all about the shires.
:02:55. > :02:56.With the local elections over you can expect the referendum
:02:57. > :02:59.campaign to get as hot as a Sunday afternoon in early May.
:03:00. > :03:03.And, in case you'd forgotten, this is an argument which has pitched
:03:04. > :03:05.former close Cabinet allies against one another.
:03:06. > :03:07.Here's Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Chancellor George Osborne
:03:08. > :03:19.They are giving part of the economic case for each side of the debate.
:03:20. > :03:23.If we look at the arguments that are made now about how Britain might
:03:24. > :03:25.suffer outside the European Union economic play, they are all
:03:26. > :03:28.arguments that are a reprise, a rerun of the original case
:03:29. > :03:30.that was made against staying outside the single currency.
:03:31. > :03:33.But more than that, you can see how countries which are outside
:03:34. > :03:36.the European Union are able to forge trade deals and to grow faster
:03:37. > :03:43.One of the striking things about the EU, is that is has brought
:03:44. > :03:45.economic insecurity and massive youth unemployment to countries
:03:46. > :03:59.I'm pretty clear that there will be a significant hit to the value of
:04:00. > :04:03.people's homes and to the cost of mortgages. That's one example of the
:04:04. > :04:08.kind of economic impact that we get from leaving the youth. The Leave
:04:09. > :04:13.campaign is today saying they would leave the single market. For me,
:04:14. > :04:18.that is an absolutely catastrophic economic mistake our country.
:04:19. > :04:23.Michael Gove said this morning to Andrew Marr that the relations
:04:24. > :04:29.between the warring Tory cabinet ministers were still cordial. Do you
:04:30. > :04:35.believe them, or have a squadron of pigs just flown over the studio? Of
:04:36. > :04:40.course it isn't cordial. No more than what is going on in the Labour
:04:41. > :04:45.Party right now. There is this debate going on. I have wanted a
:04:46. > :04:48.referendum for many years on this issue. It is extraordinary that we
:04:49. > :04:53.have just had the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who has supported the
:04:54. > :04:59.idea of the EU referendum, saying it is catastrophic the dash it would be
:05:00. > :05:05.catastrophic. If one of the options is catastrophic, how irresponsible
:05:06. > :05:07.to have it. In September, they were saying, we haven't finished the
:05:08. > :05:13.negotiations yet and we don't know which way we are going to go. He
:05:14. > :05:18.either lied then, or he is lying now. Which is it? Has this not
:05:19. > :05:24.turned out to be more rancorous, even much more rancorous, than Mr
:05:25. > :05:30.Cameron and George Osborne ever envisaged to three months ago. If
:05:31. > :05:33.you go back to the row we were initially having in January about
:05:34. > :05:39.collective responsibility, which is, will Cameron allow or not allow his
:05:40. > :05:49.cabinet to campaign for leave, and he lost that one. But in May, using
:05:50. > :05:53.key had a point. Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, big hitters doing immense
:05:54. > :06:00.damage to the Tory brand and to Tory unity. Things bubbling up of late
:06:01. > :06:05.are the way that ministers like Priti Patel going for issues like
:06:06. > :06:10.NHS funding. We can pay the NHS more if we left the EU, which means we
:06:11. > :06:15.are not paying enough. That hits right at the heart of government
:06:16. > :06:21.policies. The moment collective responsibility ends, a spell that is
:06:22. > :06:26.cast over us that they all agree with everybody about everything, we
:06:27. > :06:34.never see it in the same way again. In 75 with Harold Wilson - will you
:06:35. > :06:38.remember that? And never again they say that Mr Benn and Mr Wilson and
:06:39. > :06:45.all those people were on the same song sheet. He very clever Rees said
:06:46. > :06:52.an agreement to differ -- very cleverly said. But it was the
:06:53. > :06:57.differing that stood out. We all were two young! But Harold Wilson
:06:58. > :07:01.never played the prominent part in the campaign that David Cameron has
:07:02. > :07:11.played. He kind of stood back from it all. Very clever. But also, using
:07:12. > :07:16.the government's power, it has turned nasty because of the way that
:07:17. > :07:20.the government's Remain side has played it. And some of the
:07:21. > :07:26.ridiculous claims that have been made. People come up to me all the
:07:27. > :07:31.time and say, wide you think this? We want facts. People are crying out
:07:32. > :07:36.for the facts. The Chancellor saying it is going to be catastrophic is
:07:37. > :07:40.absolute and utter nonsense. We know that because the Prime Minister said
:07:41. > :07:44.last year himself that it wouldn't be. Michael Gove said today that he
:07:45. > :07:49.wasn't bothered about being part of the single market. Given that the
:07:50. > :07:53.economic debate is... If you look at the private polling they are doing,
:07:54. > :08:00.the Remain side think they are winning the economic argument. The
:08:01. > :08:04.Leave side think that they will win on immigration, controlling borders
:08:05. > :08:08.and national sovereignty and so on. To say that it doesn't matter if we
:08:09. > :08:15.are in the single market, even if there is a price to pay, could come
:08:16. > :08:25.to haunt the Leave side. I think it is an error. When in the Scottish
:08:26. > :08:33.referendum campaign, Alex Salmond was fudging over the currency issue,
:08:34. > :08:37.the fact that he fudged it meant that he could never say what would
:08:38. > :08:41.actually happen. I think a lot of people will be bothered about being
:08:42. > :08:45.out of the single market, including a lot of their natural supporters,
:08:46. > :08:49.and some business people. I think they are losing the debate on the
:08:50. > :08:54.economy, and that will be more pivotal in the end. The ordinary
:08:55. > :09:02.response to the Remain campaigners about being in the single market
:09:03. > :09:07.is... If you seriously think that BMW is going to go to Angela Merkel
:09:08. > :09:15.and say that they are happy to have 3% WTO tariffs to our biggest market
:09:16. > :09:22.in the UK, that is insane. Gordon Brown has been brought out for the
:09:23. > :09:24.Remain campaign. He had an intervention in the Scottish
:09:25. > :09:31.referendum. I wonder if it could be a repeat for months, because I
:09:32. > :09:35.wonder how much Mr Brown resonates south of the border? You would be
:09:36. > :09:40.tempted to think absolutely not, because Gordon Brown is still a
:09:41. > :09:48.hugely respected figure in Scotland, perhaps less in England. But the key
:09:49. > :09:54.voters, the undecideds, art those middle ranking people. Not those
:09:55. > :10:00.posh people or the people who have made up their minds to leave. The
:10:01. > :10:05.public sector worker, perhaps, middle ranking people. They could
:10:06. > :10:09.crucially play a row role in organising -- galvanising Labour
:10:10. > :10:17.voters. How do you persuade them enough to care? Referendums are
:10:18. > :10:23.dangerous for Prime Minister. They produce wacky sequences. David
:10:24. > :10:29.Cameron was a king for Jeremy Corbyn to do well when he was making a
:10:30. > :10:33.speech in support of staying in. That is what happens in referendums,
:10:34. > :10:37.you become desperate for your previous enemies to survive and
:10:38. > :10:44.flourish. The Labour vote is important. If that doesn't come out,
:10:45. > :10:48.it would be disastrous for Remain. And people in favour of Brexit are
:10:49. > :10:52.going to be more keen to vote because they feel more passionately.
:10:53. > :10:58.It is difficult to be passionate about remaining in the EU. And those
:10:59. > :11:06.who are passionate about coming out are quite eurosceptic. -- about
:11:07. > :11:13.staying in our quite eurosceptic. Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne would put
:11:14. > :11:18.themselves in that category. The EU is constantly being reformed. But
:11:19. > :11:24.not in the direction we want to. And the heads of MI5 and MI6 supported
:11:25. > :11:30.staying in this morning. George Osborne wants to play the security
:11:31. > :11:34.card. Whether they are right or wrong, I would suggest that
:11:35. > :11:38.security, in terms of fighting terrorism and keeping our borders
:11:39. > :11:43.secure, is not something that British people associate naturally
:11:44. > :11:47.with the EU. You are absolutely right. The remainers started off
:11:48. > :11:52.thinking that security would be a big catchphrase, but it hasn't
:11:53. > :12:00.worked. It is a score draw at best, largely because migration has come
:12:01. > :12:05.to play in this security argument. A former head of MI6 has said that it
:12:06. > :12:12.doesn't matter. Remain have got to say something in this. The best they
:12:13. > :12:16.can hope for is, their best suit is the economy, and leave immigration.
:12:17. > :12:21.That is the danger of the security issue. If you bring up security, you
:12:22. > :12:25.can quickly move on to immigration. They can say, you cannot really be
:12:26. > :12:31.secure and less you can control our borders. The moment you got on to
:12:32. > :12:40.immigration, it is highly emotive and the doubters have got some --
:12:41. > :12:45.those who support out have got some clout on this. As long as the
:12:46. > :12:50.economy is centre stage, and most people assume that Remain are
:12:51. > :12:55.winning that argument, I think that is as Sagna second as going back to
:12:56. > :13:02.75. The polls show that they are ahead on the economy. The 200 page
:13:03. > :13:06.Treasury document was predicated on GDP, but actually it was predicated
:13:07. > :13:10.on an extra 3 million immigrants coming to this country by 2030. We
:13:11. > :13:11.shall see what happens in the next couple of
:13:12. > :13:15.months. We'll be back at the same
:13:16. > :13:17.time, 11.00 next week. You can watch the Daily Politics
:13:18. > :13:20.every day this week at noon. Remember, if it's Sunday,
:13:21. > :13:50.it's the Sunday Politics. MUSIC: Ain't No Mountain High Enough
:13:51. > :13:53.by The Supremes Follow the world's greatest
:13:54. > :13:58.migrations on an epic race for life.