:00:36. > :00:43.Leave campaigners say Turkey is on course to join
:00:44. > :00:45.the European Union and, if we remain in the EU,
:00:46. > :00:48.that will mean more criminals here and greater pressure
:00:49. > :00:51.The Prime Minister says it's nonsense.
:00:52. > :00:54.We'll have the latest on this developing row.
:00:55. > :00:57.This woman claims to be the voice of business -
:00:58. > :01:00.and that most businesses in the UK want to remain in the EU.
:01:01. > :01:02.But is the business case that clear cut?
:01:03. > :01:07.We speak to the Director General of the CBI.
:01:08. > :01:10.When it comes to gauging public opinion on the referendum,
:01:11. > :01:11.which is better: telephone polls or online polls?
:01:12. > :01:16.Even the pollsters are having trouble answering that one.
:01:17. > :01:19.And I tell you what, if I don't know,
:01:20. > :01:24.Later in the programme: for lark for 21 years,
:01:25. > :01:26.At the end of a stormy two weeks in Cardiff Bay,
:01:27. > :01:29.the two main protagonists will be here to tell me
:01:30. > :01:38.In London it's thought 400,000, wrath citizens are eligible to vote
:01:39. > :01:42.in the EU referendum. Which way did they tilt?
:01:43. > :01:45.And with me - as always - a political panel of the best
:01:46. > :01:48.and the brightest in the business, hopefully they do know which way
:01:49. > :01:50.to jump: Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh
:01:51. > :01:54.who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:55. > :01:56.Turkey has taken centre-stage in the referendum debate today.
:01:57. > :01:58.Vote Leave are launching a new poster campaign warning that
:01:59. > :02:02.Turkey is on course to join the EU, leaving the UK vulnerable
:02:03. > :02:07.to criminals, mass migration and more pressure on public services.
:02:08. > :02:09.The Prime Minister was asked about the claims
:02:10. > :02:12.on the Robert Peston programme on ITV.
:02:13. > :02:16.Every country has a veto, and let's be clear,
:02:17. > :02:21.as Boris himself said, Turkey joining the EU is not remotely on
:02:22. > :02:24.the cards. At the current rate of progress, this would be decades,
:02:25. > :02:26.literally decades, before this even had a prospect of
:02:27. > :02:31.happening, and even at that stage, we would be able to say no.
:02:32. > :02:34.Well, that was David Cameron this morning.
:02:35. > :02:45.But here's what he had to say in a speech in Istanbul in 2010.
:02:46. > :02:49.But here's what he had to say in a speech in Ankara in 2010.
:02:50. > :02:57.It makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be
:02:58. > :03:01.frustrated. My view is clear. I believe it is wrong to say that
:03:02. > :03:06.Turkey can guard the camp, but not be allowed to sit in the tent. So
:03:07. > :03:09.why will remain your strongest possible advocate for EU membership
:03:10. > :03:15.and for greater influence at the top possible advocate for EU membership
:03:16. > :03:16.table of European diplomacy. The Prime Minister six years ago after
:03:17. > :03:20.becoming Prime Minister. Is it a proper issue for this
:03:21. > :03:30.referendum or is it a red Is it a proper issue for this
:03:31. > :03:35.the Leave campaign will be delighted that we
:03:36. > :03:38.the Leave campaign will be delighted about Turkey, you
:03:39. > :03:40.image of more migration, uncontrolled immigration from
:03:41. > :03:43.image of more migration, poorer countries so it is a
:03:44. > :03:53.image of more migration, win. I am not sure that the Prime
:03:54. > :03:57.Minister is right to engage in this one. But he has been called about
:03:58. > :03:59.this from someone whose judgment he also calls into question. But is a
:04:00. > :04:06.strange thing, his own Armed also calls into question. But is a
:04:07. > :04:10.Minister. The also calls into question. But is a
:04:11. > :04:14.right to say we have a veto, every EU member has a veto in new members,
:04:15. > :04:15.but if the Prime Minister is in favour of Turkey joining,
:04:16. > :04:22.but if the Prime Minister is in said he was in Ankara, then the veto
:04:23. > :04:25.does not matter? Absolutely. What a great clip that was
:04:26. > :04:28.does not matter? Absolutely. What a Minister in 2010, when he set out
:04:29. > :04:31.does not matter? Absolutely. What a Ray clearly what his position is. He
:04:32. > :04:38.supports Turkey joining the EU in whatever time frame that may be. It
:04:39. > :04:40.does not do for the Prime Minister to say we have a veto. The question
:04:41. > :04:45.is, will you use that veto? If to say we have a veto. The question
:04:46. > :04:55.Turkey, that is big news hear it? It would be a big U-turn.
:04:56. > :04:59.It could be moot, couldn't it? There is no prospect of Turkey joining in
:05:00. > :05:00.the future, is there? The telling thing about this conversation
:05:01. > :05:06.the future, is there? The telling are focusing on our veto and the
:05:07. > :05:08.veto possessed by all existing EU members and not focusing
:05:09. > :05:15.veto possessed by all existing EU itself. Is that country as keen on
:05:16. > :05:18.veto possessed by all existing EU change and internal politics in
:05:19. > :05:23.Turkey suggests they are less keen on membership or less keen on doing
:05:24. > :05:27.the things necessary to successfully apply for EU mentorship than they
:05:28. > :05:30.were a while ago. I think for reasons on the Turkish side and on
:05:31. > :05:33.the European side, it will not happen until I am a very old man.
:05:34. > :05:37.But it happen until I am a very old man.
:05:38. > :05:40.Leave to play up this issue and every day we talk about migration is
:05:41. > :05:42.a day we're not spending talking about the economy and I think that
:05:43. > :05:54.is their only route about the economy and I think that
:05:55. > :05:59.next year, who are not going to agree to Turkey joining any
:06:00. > :06:02.next year, who are not going to soon. And if you were to be fair to
:06:03. > :06:06.the prime and Vista, you would say he made that speech in 2010
:06:07. > :06:17.the prime and Vista, you would say Ankara, me and a whole load of
:06:18. > :06:22.the prime and Vista, you would say president. He was very
:06:23. > :06:23.the prime and Vista, you would say up to President
:06:24. > :06:27.the prime and Vista, you would say because he wanted more trade. That
:06:28. > :06:45.was pre-migration crisis. That has changed everything
:06:46. > :06:48.was pre-migration crisis. That has to do a 180 degrees U-turn on this
:06:49. > :06:50.issue. We will see as the day develops.
:06:51. > :06:56.So, the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens, says the health
:06:57. > :06:59.Two of his predecessors have also written a joint article
:07:00. > :07:01.in the Sunday Times saying that they think,
:07:02. > :07:04.for the NHS at least, staying in the EU is
:07:05. > :07:06.Mr Stevens was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning.
:07:07. > :07:11.When Mark Carney says that the risk of a slowdown in economic growth,
:07:12. > :07:15.possibly a recession, if we end up exiting the EU,
:07:16. > :07:19.if Mark Carney is right, then that is a severe concern
:07:20. > :07:23.for the National Health Service, because it would be very dangerous
:07:24. > :07:30.if at precisely the moment the NHS is going to need extra funding,
:07:31. > :07:39.they argue that remaining in the EU will place further strain on the NHS
:07:40. > :07:42.due to continued free movement of people and the accession
:07:43. > :08:00.The Department of Health estimates that the cost to the NHS in England
:08:01. > :08:02.from visitors and non-permanent residents who come from
:08:03. > :08:04.the European economic area, that is the EU plus Iceland,
:08:05. > :08:08.Lichtenstein and Norway, is around ?340 million a year.
:08:09. > :08:10.To put that in context, the total annual expenditure
:08:11. > :08:15.in England's NHS was ?113 billion in 2014-15.
:08:16. > :08:18.There are around 3 million people from other EU countries resident
:08:19. > :08:24.in the UK and all are entitled to use NHS services.
:08:25. > :08:30.All those would be entitled to stay in the UK, even if we were to leave
:08:31. > :08:33.the EU, due to the rights under the Vienna Convention.
:08:34. > :08:39.In 2015, around 257,000 EU nationals migrated to the UK.
:08:40. > :08:42.But whether that number would come down if we vote to leave depends
:08:43. > :08:46.on the deal the UK strikes with the EU following an exit.
:08:47. > :08:52.NHS England says the total number of staff coming from EU countries
:08:53. > :08:58.was just over 53,000, or 4.6% of the total NHS workforce.
:08:59. > :09:02.A total of 9% of NHS England's hospital doctors, 6% of its nurses
:09:03. > :09:07.and health visitors, come from other EU countries,
:09:08. > :09:11.however, all would be entitled to stay in the event of a vote
:09:12. > :09:13.to leave, and without knowing what any future deal might be,
:09:14. > :09:16.it is impossible to know if there would be any impact
:09:17. > :09:23.A one-time pro-European Foreign Secretary, he is now
:09:24. > :09:29.campaigning for the UK to leave the European Union.
:09:30. > :09:37.Good morning, David Owen. Let me come straight to the remarks by the
:09:38. > :09:41.man currently running the NHS in England, Simon Stevens. He said it
:09:42. > :09:47.would be better for the NHS if we remain in the EU. What is your
:09:48. > :09:53.response? Let's be quite clear. Simon Stevens is the manager of the
:09:54. > :09:59.NHS, which is currently ?3 billion in debt. This man has presided now
:10:00. > :10:03.for a sufficient time to judge his management skills. In almost every
:10:04. > :10:09.part of the National Health Service, there is an acute crisis. He spent
:10:10. > :10:18.ten years in America, with an American health care company,
:10:19. > :10:22.effectively arguing for the TTIP, this treaty between America and the
:10:23. > :10:34.European Union, which could be introduced, and an assessment makes
:10:35. > :10:41.it very clear that TTIP will be very damaging to the National Health
:10:42. > :10:46.Service, if it is drafted in the way that it is. Simon Stevens should
:10:47. > :10:51.stick to his Lee which is to manage the health service more effectively.
:10:52. > :10:55.He is an individual, he has a view on the European Union which is fine,
:10:56. > :11:00.but his basic job is to look after the NHS, and at the moment he is
:11:01. > :11:09.making a very considerable mess of. It is not just Simon Stevens, two of
:11:10. > :11:15.his predecessors say staying in the EU is the preferable option.
:11:16. > :11:20.Identifying, if there is any danger to the NHS, it is in staying in,
:11:21. > :11:26.with all the elements of the NHS which are now involved with the EU.
:11:27. > :11:30.-- I don't think. For the first 20 years of our membership, with the
:11:31. > :11:36.common market, we had no involvement with the NHS at all. Now the NHS
:11:37. > :11:40.procurement policy, the NHS competition policy is all impact in,
:11:41. > :11:45.because we have started to Mark ties the NHS in 2002 under Labour. It
:11:46. > :11:49.continued under the coalition with the Liberal Democrats of this
:11:50. > :11:54.present Conservative government, and it has continued under this
:11:55. > :11:58.Conservative government. If you treat health like water or
:11:59. > :12:03.electricity or gas, as a utility, and you treat them all as customers,
:12:04. > :12:10.then you will be under market pressures, and the problem with the
:12:11. > :12:13.NHS is we lost what it was, it fortunately still is in Wales,
:12:14. > :12:18.Scotland and Northern Ireland, but in England it is a marker ties to
:12:19. > :12:21.health service modelling itself on the United States of America. If you
:12:22. > :12:28.wanted to make changes, you would be wiser to stick to Germany or France,
:12:29. > :12:33.not go the United States model. Let me put a point to you. Michael Gove,
:12:34. > :12:37.part of the Leave campaign, he says the NHS could be overwhelmed by
:12:38. > :12:43.continued migration if we stay in the EU. He predicts an extra 5
:12:44. > :12:49.million plus by 2030. These predictions suggest that Turkey,
:12:50. > :12:55.Macedonia and Albania all join the EU by 2020. That is not on the
:12:56. > :13:02.cards, is it? Let's be clear about your programme so far and analyse
:13:03. > :13:07.what has been said already. It is not the Prime Minister what he said
:13:08. > :13:11.in Istanbul, the Prime Minister nine weeks ago signed up to the European
:13:12. > :13:19.Council meeting on the 18th of March, and he said, to re-energise
:13:20. > :13:26.the accession process for Turkey to join the EU, and to make preparatory
:13:27. > :13:32.work for the opening of other chapters will continue at an
:13:33. > :13:35.accelerating pace. This is a Prime Minister who is getting used to
:13:36. > :13:41.saying one thing one time, another thing another. Nine weeks ago, we
:13:42. > :13:47.were committed to increasing the speed of entry for Turkey into the
:13:48. > :13:52.European Union. I am passionate about keeping Turkey inside Nato,
:13:53. > :13:57.and with one foot in the EU and with one foot in the Middle East. Why?
:13:58. > :14:02.Because Turkey is essentially important country, as a member of
:14:03. > :14:08.Nato in dealing with Isil, Syria, Iraq and many other problems around
:14:09. > :14:12.the world. But you will not make it by bringing them prematurely into
:14:13. > :14:16.the European Union. What we should be doing is encouraging them to come
:14:17. > :14:25.into the single market which has non-EU countries associated, but
:14:26. > :14:33.without this issue of freedom of movement of Labour. You are Foreign
:14:34. > :14:39.Secretary... Let me ask this question. You must surely know, that
:14:40. > :14:43.Turkey's chances of joining the EU in the foreseeable future are
:14:44. > :14:47.remote. Isn't that the reality? No, I think what was said by your
:14:48. > :14:51.commentator earlier in the programmers that has been a change
:14:52. > :14:54.of foreign policy. If the Prime Minister commits nine weeks ago to
:14:55. > :15:00.speeding up Turkey's membership, and then does not deliver on it, what
:15:01. > :15:04.will be the consequences? Turkey will feel they have been lied to or
:15:05. > :15:10.rejected by the Europeans and they will, in my view, come out of Nato
:15:11. > :15:14.with very profound consequences. At the moment, let's treat Turkey with
:15:15. > :15:18.respect, let's try and ensure they make the necessary changes on human
:15:19. > :15:23.rights and in many other areas. There are a lot of worrying aspects
:15:24. > :15:28.about Turkish policy, but mention above the European Union in my view
:15:29. > :15:35.is not the issue. It is how to make them more committed to Europe. Don't
:15:36. > :15:39.avoid this question. If we are in the European Union, we are committed
:15:40. > :15:44.to freedom of movement of Labour in every aspect of EU membership. That
:15:45. > :15:48.is a problem. David Owen, thank you, we will have to leave it there.
:15:49. > :15:50.The Confederation Of British Industry calls itself
:15:51. > :15:52.the "voice of business", claiming to speak on behalf
:15:53. > :15:55.of 190,000 businesses, employing up to 7 million people.
:15:56. > :15:57.And according to the CBI, British businesses overwhelmingly
:15:58. > :16:00.back the idea of remaining in the EU.
:16:01. > :16:04.What's more, they've been encouraging their members to talk
:16:05. > :16:08.to staff about the referendum to give them "the choice to hear
:16:09. > :16:10.what impact a Brexit would have on company growth,
:16:11. > :16:12.their jobs and their local community".
:16:13. > :16:19.As you can imagine, Leave campaigners are not amused.
:16:20. > :16:21.The chair of the Vote Leave business council, John Longworth,
:16:22. > :16:23.a former director-general of the British Chambers Of Commerce,
:16:24. > :16:25.said the call was an "anti-democratic abuse of power
:16:26. > :16:32.He added: "It's highly regrettable to see big corporate bosses plotting
:16:33. > :16:37.to gang up on their staff, and lecture them on how to vote."
:16:38. > :16:39.Well, we're joined now by the director
:16:40. > :16:56.general of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn.
:16:57. > :17:00.Welcome to the programme. Good morning. If big business told its
:17:01. > :17:02.workers how to vote in a general election, there would be broad, so
:17:03. > :17:05.why are you encouraging your members to warn their workers about the
:17:06. > :17:08.dangers of Brexit? That is not what we have said. We have said that
:17:09. > :17:11.people working today in economy want to hear from their employers about
:17:12. > :17:13.what it means on either side of the debate. That is not what you said,
:17:14. > :17:18.you said what impact Brexit would have on growth, jobs and the local
:17:19. > :17:24.community. Positive for negative. You did not say that? It is clear
:17:25. > :17:28.this is not about warning anybody. This is about the questions that
:17:29. > :17:33.people are now asking about what it means for them. We were clean about
:17:34. > :17:37.that. Most of your members, you claim, are in favour of staying in
:17:38. > :17:40.the European Union. The message going out to the workforce will be
:17:41. > :17:46.overwhelmingly about remaining in the EU. The main thing is that
:17:47. > :17:51.people who are going to vote on June 23 have as good an understanding as
:17:52. > :17:55.they possibly can about what it means for their jobs, families and
:17:56. > :18:00.communities. That was the key message, nothing about telling
:18:01. > :18:04.people how to vote. We learned this week that one of your members,
:18:05. > :18:08.Circle, was planning uproar EU campaign with the Prime Minister,
:18:09. > :18:12.even before the renegotiations were finished. With the CBI or any of
:18:13. > :18:21.your members have similar discussions with the government? To
:18:22. > :18:24.my knowledge, no. The conversations that businesses, universities, all
:18:25. > :18:29.parts of our society have with government go on every day. Were you
:18:30. > :18:36.planning the pro-union-mac campaign with the government even before the
:18:37. > :18:42.renegotiations? No. But Circle was? No. Everything the CBI has done is a
:18:43. > :18:46.result of the things we have done and a half of our members. Circle
:18:47. > :18:52.has contracts with the government worth several million pounds. The
:18:53. > :18:56.taxpayer pays for that. Its boss was offering to help the Prime Minister
:18:57. > :19:01.do what he could to help keep Britain in the EU. It was a behind
:19:02. > :19:06.closed doors stitch up between big government and big business, wasn't
:19:07. > :19:10.it? The important thing is to understand what businesses across
:19:11. > :19:18.the country of all sizes are seeing. You're focusing on one company. What
:19:19. > :19:23.we are seeing is that the majority of businesses want to stay in
:19:24. > :19:27.we are seeing is that the majority European Union. I understand that. I
:19:28. > :19:27.am asking you if the way this company has
:19:28. > :19:31.am asking you if the way this smells of a
:19:32. > :19:35.am asking you if the way this think this is a stitch up. It is
:19:36. > :19:46.am asking you if the way this on issues of jobs,
:19:47. > :19:51.trading with the European Union trading with the European Union
:19:52. > :20:01.clearly heard. The voice of this company was certainly clearly heard.
:20:02. > :20:03.clearly heard. The voice of this He saw the Prime Minister, Mr
:20:04. > :20:06.Soames. This is what he did in the follow-up letter. He spoke about
:20:07. > :20:08.backing the prime and is to's campaign to keep us in the EU. This
:20:09. > :20:17.is even though the renegotiations were not finished. He went on to
:20:18. > :20:20.lobby for business. He said... He wants more business at the same
:20:21. > 2:52:31lobby for business. He said... He time. It really does add to the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31sense that this is big business feathering its own nest. That is not
2:52:32 > 2:52:31what is going on. There are conversations all the time. Why he
2:52:32 > 2:52:31wise to do that, to lobby for more business at the same time as
2:52:32 > 2:52:31lobbying to stay in the EU? I think there are conversations happening
2:52:32 > 2:52:31all the time. Is that conversation appropriate? Those are questions for
2:52:32 > 2:52:31other people. The CBI represents mainly businesses across the UK and
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Europe picking on one. The important thing is the voices of the many are
2:52:32 > 2:52:31heard in this. Are they heard? You give the impression you like the EU
2:52:32 > 2:52:31because it is a one-stop club for big business. There are 30,000
2:52:32 > 2:52:31lobbyists in Brussels, most of them are doing for the interests of your
2:52:32 > 2:52:31kind of members, the business. Ordinary folk do not get a look in?
2:52:32 > 2:52:31I do not think that is true. We have had 20 business surveys since the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31beginning of the year, for all different sizes of business, and it
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is not unanimous, but they are all seeing broadly the same thing. We
2:52:32 > 2:52:31have had the creative industries Forum coming out with the survey.
2:52:32 > 2:52:3193%, because they are big exporters. This is not just big business. It is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31all sizes of business. Let's look at how the EU is good for your members
2:52:32 > 2:52:31but not necessarily the rest of us. The European Court of Justice has
2:52:32 > 2:52:31forced Her Majesty is Customs and revenue to hand back almost ?8
2:52:32 > 2:52:31billion in tax paid by big British companies, overruling tax laws made
2:52:32 > 2:52:31by our government and our Parliament. That is good for big
2:52:32 > 2:52:31business but not public services? There are areas where we share
2:52:32 > 2:52:31sovereignty, in order to have a level playing field across Europe
2:52:32 > 2:52:31for businesses overall. We are not always going to like all of the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31rules. It is a question of whether the benefits outweigh the costs. The
2:52:32 > 2:52:31benefits to your members are clear, they are paying a billion less in
2:52:32 > 2:52:31tax. The independent office of budget responsibility expected HMRC
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to pay another 8 billion back by the end of the decade. This is about
2:52:32 > 2:52:31lowering tax regimes and not allowing HMRC to get the proper tax.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31That is not fear to ordinary people? To be clear, the CBI can businesses
2:52:32 > 2:52:31overall do not support aggressive tax avoidance. We support the moves
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that have been taken at the OECD level to sort this out. This is not
2:52:32 > 2:52:31something we support. Your members will be 16 billion better off.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31British schools, hospitals, public services, will be 16 billion worse
2:52:32 > 2:52:31off. If the HMRC goes down in all these cases, we could be 40 billion
2:52:32 > 2:52:31worse off. Good for big business, but not local hospitals? I do not
2:52:32 > 2:52:31know the exact details of those numbers, but I would say that the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31moves to improve tax policy are absolutely supported by members. The
2:52:32 > 2:52:31CBI has been wrong about Britain in the EU in the past. Why should we
2:52:32 > 2:52:31listen to you now? This is becoming a distraction. You are right that
2:52:32 > 2:52:31when the euro was debated at the end of the 1980s, in principle, the CBI
2:52:32 > 2:52:31had a principle of support with caveats. You supported the principle
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of the European exchange mechanism. That ended in recession. Many people
2:52:32 > 2:52:31lost their homes and jobs. You then became enthusiastic about UK
2:52:32 > 2:52:31membership of the monetary union, the euro. I ask again, if you were
2:52:32 > 2:52:31wrong then, why should we listen to you now? Two important points, if
2:52:32 > 2:52:31you had continued to scroll down, you would seem that there were
2:52:32 > 2:52:31caveats, conditions that had to be met. Conditions around harmonisation
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of inflation and the economy. They were never met. By 2000 the CBI had
2:52:32 > 2:52:31moved its position to neutral. The discussion we are having now is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31about something very different. It is about the experience that we as
2:52:32 > 2:52:31an economy have had the European Union for 43 years. We have thrived.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31We have gone from being the sick man of Europe to being the strong man.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31His Mrs are doing well. The benefit from being in a single market. The
2:52:32 > 2:52:31euro was about something which people were imagining in the future,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a different debate. Let's come to the current debate. We saw your
2:52:32 > 2:52:31stance on the euro then. You know think we would be better off if we
2:52:32 > 2:52:31remain. That is the clear fight -- the clear-cut view of the CBI. You
2:52:32 > 2:52:31commissioned an organisation to assess the impact of leaving the EU.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31That is the result of the survey. If we remain, they think the economy
2:52:32 > 2:52:31will grow by 41% by 2030. Even if we were to come out, the economy would
2:52:32 > 2:52:31still grow by 39%, even if we did not have any free trade against, it
2:52:32 > 2:52:31would grow by 36%. It is hardly game changing either way? We have
2:52:32 > 2:52:31deliberately taken optimistic, balance and areas of the future.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31You're right, economies recover and adapt. You have not shown the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31short-term impact of several years of uncertainty. What we believe, and
2:52:32 > 2:52:31many others believe as well, is there could be significant
2:52:32 > 2:52:31short-term impacts, no sunlit uplands. You can get to 39%. Your
2:52:32 > 2:52:31own study shows are economy would be almost 40% bigger by 2030, even if
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we were to leave. That is if we do a trade deal with the US, if we are
2:52:32 > 2:52:31able to form new relationships with the EU. These are optimistic
2:52:32 > 2:52:31assumptions. Take the non-optimistic on, the World Trade Organisation. We
2:52:32 > 2:52:31just trade on existing rules. It is 36%, it is still a massive rise. Of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31course we would continue to grow. No one has ever said we would not
2:52:32 > 2:52:31continue to grow. But will we be more prosperous? We would be 36%
2:52:32 > 2:52:31more prosperous. In the short-term, by 2020, we estimate there would be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a million fewer jobs and 4-5% hate to GDP. Do we want to do that to
2:52:32 > 2:52:31school leavers? We've just come out of recession. You accept that the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31difference is not massive? It is entirely possible the economy would
2:52:32 > 2:52:31adapt. But only with significant short-term impact, and particularly
2:52:32 > 2:52:31an impact on the next generation of school leavers. The CBI claims that
2:52:32 > 2:52:31each household benefits to the tune of six -- ?3000 a year. Observers
2:52:32 > 2:52:31have condemned that as a dishonest figure. Do you stand by it? We do.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31It was a literature sturdy of existing studies. We wanted to put
2:52:32 > 2:52:31together a figure that was easy to understand. -- literature study.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Estimates like that are difficult to do. There was a range good around
2:52:32 > 2:52:31it. To be clear, standards of living have doubled. That is since the UK
2:52:32 > 2:52:31joined the European Union. They have gone from ?20,000 household income
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to about ?40,000. We are seeing a proportion of that has been a result
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of membership of the European Union, and independent studies would
2:52:32 > 2:52:31support that. You did no original research for this at all. We never
2:52:32 > 2:52:31claimed to. I have explained that to our viewers. You simply did a survey
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of research papers. But when you look, you cherry picked the research
2:52:32 > 2:52:31papers that had pro-union-mac inclusions. That is not true. I have
2:52:32 > 2:52:31got the ones that you did not use, you omitted the IUD, you omitted the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31National Institute for economic and social research. Even omitted the US
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Trade Commission survey of what it meant, or to get this ?3000 figure.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31You know tell me it is not accurate. That is not true. The evaluation we
2:52:32 > 2:52:31did of the different surveys, we omitted as many on one side as the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31other. There is a 20 page paper on this which anyone can go and read.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31It sets out the methodology accurately. You seem to be biased
2:52:32 > 2:52:31against those that did not come to the conclusion you want. Channel 4's
2:52:32 > 2:52:31respected fact checked included, the figure is not based on any real
2:52:32 > 2:52:31evidence. The chairman of the Treasury Select Committee described
2:52:32 > 2:52:31it as a scandalous misuse of data and intellectually miss honest. We
2:52:32 > 2:52:31went to him and we set out the facts. I do not think he had read
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the paper. It is not intended to be anything other than an assessment of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31consensus views over the last ten years. You did not include other
2:52:32 > 2:52:31papers. The important thing is to be focusing on what this would mean for
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the decision for the country. You're telling people that households would
2:52:32 > 2:52:31be ?3000 a year worse off if we were to leave? That is not what we are
2:52:32 > 2:52:31saying. Are you saying that we are ?3000 better off by remaining? As a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31result of having joined, about 15% of the increase in living standards
2:52:32 > 2:52:31over the time since joining is a result of being part of the European
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Union. That is a reasonable thing to have said. Is the CBI still keen on
2:52:32 > 2:52:31principle to join the euro? Absolutely not.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Would you welcome a further expansion of the EU to include the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31five countries already in the queue? I think it has to depend on the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31conditions at the time. The thing that is clear is we have a sovereign
2:52:32 > 2:52:31choice over those additional countries. Turkey is a huge market,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31it could be good for British business, would you welcome it? We
2:52:32 > 2:52:31have not had that discussion with our members. We would have a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31discussion at that time and have a point of view at that time. The CBI
2:52:32 > 2:52:31welcomed both the Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty. Would you welcome a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31further transfer of powers if we voted to remain? No. I think one
2:52:32 > 2:52:31thing which is clear is we pool sovereignty when it is in the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31benefits of our economy and we don't wear it is not. I would say one
2:52:32 > 2:52:31thing, in terms of the opt out from the working Time directive, a very
2:52:32 > 2:52:31important part of our special arrangement, if you like, of the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31European Union, the CBI was fully part of and helped to negotiate.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Thank you. Depending on which polls you look
2:52:32 > 2:52:31at, Britain is either scoffing at the idea of leaving the EU
2:52:32 > 2:52:31or it's marching swiftly One telephone poll this week gave
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Remain an eight point lead. An online poll, meanwhile,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31gave it to Leave by four points. The problem is that both
2:52:32 > 2:52:31those polls were done Our society and our electorate
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is made up of unique individuals, every one of them different and yet
2:52:32 > 2:52:31they share many attributes: gender, age, race, religion,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31economic background, education, political views,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31and social attitudes. Pollsters, therefore,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31can only ever try to tell us terms of a specific question,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31but it's only ever going to be a snapshot of wildly
2:52:32 > 2:52:31interpretable data. That snapshot is simply a moment
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in time, and is always, inevitably, slightly inaccurate
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to varying degrees, and what makes
2:52:32 > 2:52:31political polling even harder is it is like trying to
2:52:32 > 2:52:31hit a moving target from a moving platform
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in the And you would think in this EU
2:52:32 > 2:52:31referendum the simplicity of the question would help,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31should we leave It makes the whole thing
2:52:32 > 2:52:31much more complicated. The problem is a slew of polls
2:52:32 > 2:52:31giving very different signals. Given the problems
2:52:32 > 2:52:31pollsters had getting the general election right, and some
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of them didn't, this matters. Some have it neck and neck,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31some Remain ahead, others ahead It is a minefield in
2:52:32 > 2:52:31terms of working out When I apply different technical
2:52:32 > 2:52:31methods to my raw data, I can move the Remain or Leave lead
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in both directions. I tell you what, if I do not
2:52:32 > 2:52:31know having done this opinion polling lark for 21 years,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31I am not sure who does. Some of this is down to how
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the polls are done, how they get a truly
2:52:32 > 2:52:31representative sample of society in the first place,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31either by phone or online panels. Which is best is a bone
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of contention that in recent days has even
2:52:32 > 2:52:31spilt onto social media, The problem is it has become
2:52:32 > 2:52:31harder and harder to get Online samples are by their nature
2:52:32 > 2:52:31self-selecting so have biases Phone samples used to be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31considered far more representative, but in recent years,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the response rates to phone polls have dropped so low it is hard
2:52:32 > 2:52:31now to consider them to be So both modes have an element
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of self-selection. Can I ask you a few questions about
2:52:32 > 2:52:31about yourself? Would you say you are likely to vote
2:52:32 > 2:52:31or will definitely vote? Fewer of us use landlines
2:52:32 > 2:52:31or want to be cold called, thus more calls then ever before
2:52:32 > 2:52:31have to be made just to get But you do avoid those who,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31with online polling, And phone contact through
2:52:32 > 2:52:31persistence is better at eventually reaching those who are
2:52:32 > 2:52:31harder to get hold of. Would it be all right
2:52:32 > 2:52:31if we call you back later? There is a growing narrative
2:52:32 > 2:52:31amongst some pollsters that phone polling
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is probably the more accurate, which,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31given recent phone polling We look at samples and try to check
2:52:32 > 2:52:31them to see we have the right number of people who vote,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31do we believe that all the people
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in our sample who tell us they're going to vote actually
2:52:32 > 2:52:31will, are we missing people who really just do not care
2:52:32 > 2:52:31about the referendum referendum and aren't going to vote,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31are we missing the great unwashed who do
2:52:32 > 2:52:31not have degrees? All those things,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31when we make adjustments for all of those things, Remain is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31still ahead. We would have to be very,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31very wrong indeed for Remain, at the moment, on the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31polling so far, not to win this Online pollsters, who use panels
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of signed up people, are perhaps not surprisingly
2:52:32 > 2:52:31pointing to weaknesses So much so that the online pollsters
2:52:32 > 2:52:31YouGov have conducted some phone polling
2:52:32 > 2:52:31about phone polling. What we found from that comparison,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31both to the national picture and to our online polls,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31was that telephone polls were underestimating the people
2:52:32 > 2:52:31who are not university educated, and that is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31hugely important in the EU referendum because we know
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that is one of the great social cleavages, in other words,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31one of the great things that divides So phone polls are missing
2:52:32 > 2:52:31potential Leave voters. Online are accused
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of overstating them, there are two other that vital:
2:52:32 > 2:52:31are are you going to vote? Turnout will be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31crucial on June 23rd. The higher it is the more it favours
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Remain, and what happens when the mass of "don't
2:52:32 > 2:52:31knows" make up their mind? With more questions and mixed
2:52:32 > 2:52:31answers, and four weeks to go,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31most pollsters might reasonably fear
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the result of a poll that asked us all,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31"Do pollsters really have a It's just gone 11.35,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in Scotland who leave us now It's just gone 11.35,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31you're watching the Sunday Politics. Hello and welcome to
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the Sunday Politics Wales. Well, a fortnight after the election
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we finally have a new And Carwyn Jones had a few
2:52:32 > 2:52:31surprises up his sleeve We'll be hearing from
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the First Minister in a moment, and the Plaid leader Leanne Wood
2:52:32 > 2:52:31will be here live. First, Cemlyn Davies
2:52:32 > 2:52:31on the machinations of the past week in Cardiff Bay's very
2:52:32 > 2:52:31own House of Cards. The past couple of weeks
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in Cardiff Bay have been like an episode
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of a tense political drama. We have had theatre,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31intrigue and suspense. Dealt a tricky hand after that
2:52:32 > 2:52:31unexpected tied vote delayed the nomination of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a First Minister, Labour's Carwyn Jones
2:52:32 > 2:52:31was forced to rethink and But by Thursday he had successfully
2:52:32 > 2:52:31navigated his way back into office and played that card,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we suspected was up his sleeve, inviting the only remaining
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Lib Dem Assembly Member to his Cabinet table as
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Education Secretary. A special adviser to former
2:52:32 > 2:52:31First Minister Rhodri Morgan, Paul Griffiths helped oversee
2:52:32 > 2:52:31two coalition deals. He has been watching Carwyn Jones's
2:52:32 > 2:52:31response to recent Carwyn will have been under
2:52:32 > 2:52:31significant pressure and will have been working very, very hard
2:52:32 > 2:52:31with people around him to test out what is possible and what can be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31gained and how a government can Back in 2007, Rhodri Morgan had
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a heart attack during this period. It might have been
2:52:32 > 2:52:31entirely coincidental. But the pressure that it puts
2:52:32 > 2:52:31on all the individuals involved, given the fact you have been
2:52:32 > 2:52:31through many months of hard campaigning, to actually come
2:52:32 > 2:52:31then to new relationships and new understandings with different
2:52:32 > 2:52:31people, it is enormous pressure. Kirsty Williams's appointment
2:52:32 > 2:52:31as Education Secretary was certainly a bold move by Carwyn Jones,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31but does it make political sense? Since the election, Kirsty's
2:52:32 > 2:52:31position has been more powerful than the maths imply
2:52:32 > 2:52:31because of the fractions From her point of view
2:52:32 > 2:52:31and from a Liberal Democrat point of view, rather than
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the decision echoing the Coalition Government in the UK from 2010,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31actually the Liberal Democrats in Wales, you could argue,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31had not a lot left to lose. In previous, more formal coalition
2:52:32 > 2:52:31agreements, Labour first ministers have been able to offer portfolios
2:52:32 > 2:52:31which sounded quite grand but were not of huge
2:52:32 > 2:52:31influence within government. Yet, what Kirsty Williams has got
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is, second to health, probably the biggest
2:52:32 > 2:52:31spending portfolio with one of the bigger sets of challenges
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in Welsh Government. Now as the credits roll on this
2:52:32 > 2:52:31opening programme, we are left wondering what more
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we can expect from the How significant will recent events
2:52:32 > 2:52:31prove to be and what lessons can In the long-term this
2:52:32 > 2:52:31will probably be It was a bit of drama
2:52:32 > 2:52:31last week when we had to wait to see who our
2:52:32 > 2:52:31new First Minister would be. But now things have been
2:52:32 > 2:52:31settled between Plaid Cymru and Labour, I think
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we will get back to normal Even with Kirsty Williams
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in the cabinet, it is still a The relationship in particular with
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Plaid Cymru will need to be worked That is the key point,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Carwyn Jones does still lack a majority and his government will
2:52:32 > 2:52:31come under pressure at some point. But we now know there
2:52:32 > 2:52:31will be several changes. Speaking on the Sunday Supplement
2:52:32 > 2:52:31programme this morning, the First Minister Carwyn Jones said
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that the ban on e-cigs When I spoke to Carwyn Jones just
2:52:32 > 2:52:31before we came on air It is clear there isn't
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a majority in the Assembly There's no point running
2:52:32 > 2:52:31into a brick wall so it is important we get a public health bill
2:52:32 > 2:52:31through that will command support Are you disappointed you won't to be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31able to press ahead with that? Of course, but we have to recognise
2:52:32 > 2:52:31reality and that there are many aspects to the public health bill
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that are important and it is Looking again at one of the other
2:52:32 > 2:52:31issues you have rolled back on this morning,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31changes to local government, the numbers
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of councils we have in Wales. There was talk of taking it down
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to eight or nine councils. You also think that
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is no longer a goer? I don't think the map
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we have published before the election
2:52:32 > 2:52:31will command support What is important
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is everybody agrees that there has to be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a reorganisation of local government The question is, there's no point
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of leaving things as they are for I want to discuss this
2:52:32 > 2:52:31with other parties to Everybody accepts
2:52:32 > 2:52:31there has to be change. Is this a reflection of a broader
2:52:32 > 2:52:31change in how you are going to be going about
2:52:32 > 2:52:31politics in the Senedd? You were saying last week no one
2:52:32 > 2:52:31party has a monopoly on good ideas, you need to reach
2:52:32 > 2:52:31out to other parties. Is this how it is going to be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31for the next few months? There has never been
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a government in Wales with a majority, there has always
2:52:32 > 2:52:31been the need to work with other You recognise the arithmetic
2:52:32 > 2:52:31and we will continue to look to find common ground
2:52:32 > 2:52:31with other parties. There's no point being tribal,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31for tribalism sake. People out there want to see good
2:52:32 > 2:52:31government in Wales and they want to see
2:52:32 > 2:52:31parties working together. I don't see that as a weakness,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31I see that as a sign of One element of this new policy
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is your invitation to bring in Kirsty Williams into the Cabinet,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31now ratified from her party's point To what extent will
2:52:32 > 2:52:31she be considered a To what extent will
2:52:32 > 2:52:31she have the odd pass where she doesn't have to fully
2:52:32 > 2:52:31support the government's programme? She is a full part of the Cabinet,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31clearly there is collected responsibility, but Kirsty and I
2:52:32 > 2:52:31will be meeting every week to work through the issues to make sure
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we get to a point of agreement. It isn't the case that she has do
2:52:32 > 2:52:31whatever she is told. She is not a member
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of Welsh Labour, she is a member of the Welsh
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Liberal Democrats. But will she be allowed
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to vote against some of the What we need is to make sure
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that we have Cabinet We have been here before,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we have coalitions in the past... But we have had a clear
2:52:32 > 2:52:31programme of government then. The issues have been
2:52:32 > 2:52:31dealt with pretty easily. Issues arise in the course of five
2:52:32 > 2:52:31years that you don't anticipate. But what about, for example,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in her area, education, will she have free reign
2:52:32 > 2:52:31on education policies or will there be a discussion
2:52:32 > 2:52:31there between you and her as well? There will be discussions
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to make sure nothing is happening that is outside
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of either party 's manifesto. We have published common
2:52:32 > 2:52:31priorities for education. She will be a very good
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Education Minister. The priorities that we have laid
2:52:32 > 2:52:31out are shared by both parties. Let me give you an example
2:52:32 > 2:52:31where that isn't the case. The Lib Dems had
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a manifesto commitment to abolish these regional consortia,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the four or five consortia throughout Wales to drive up
2:52:32 > 2:52:31standards in schools, she said In the past, your education
2:52:32 > 2:52:31ministers have said, these It is clear to me the consortia
2:52:32 > 2:52:31made a huge difference. Before that, the LEA's were not
2:52:32 > 2:52:31delivering consistently across We had one council, Anglesey,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31I had to be taken over Kirsty will look at
2:52:32 > 2:52:31what needs to be done. What she needs to do and what she
2:52:32 > 2:52:31understands is to make sure we continue moving in
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the right direction. In fairness, I have heard
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to say that this morning. What of this issue of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31smaller class sizes? She says that is ?40 million over
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the next five years. Are you happy to spend
2:52:32 > 2:52:31all that money on something which, in the past, education
2:52:32 > 2:52:31ministers from the Labour government have said, it is not the answer
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to all the problems. Bear in mind one of our
2:52:32 > 2:52:31manifesto commitments was to set aside an extra ?100
2:52:32 > 2:52:31million pot for education. We are not in a position
2:52:32 > 2:52:31where we are at odds with We will see how that manifesto
2:52:32 > 2:52:31commitment will fit in It has been quite clear
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we have agreed that one of her priorities is to reduce
2:52:32 > 2:52:31infant class sizes to 25 and under. We have to be careful to how it's
2:52:32 > 2:52:31done so local authorities and We have no difficulty
2:52:32 > 2:52:31with that objective. The other element
2:52:32 > 2:52:31where you are having to work with another
2:52:32 > 2:52:31party is Plaid Cymru. To what extent and to
2:52:32 > 2:52:31what detail was the deal done that
2:52:32 > 2:52:31allowed you to be appointed as First For example, on the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31number of doctors. Plaid Cymru were saying we have
2:52:32 > 2:52:31realised our manifesto commitment which is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a thousand extra doctors. The deal between you
2:52:32 > 2:52:31two says more GPs. Is it going to be a thousand more
2:52:32 > 2:52:31doctors over the next five years? There is an overemphasis
2:52:32 > 2:52:31on GPs here. We are talking about primary
2:52:32 > 2:52:31care professionals. They are just dealing
2:52:32 > 2:52:31with things the pharmacists Plaid Cymru are pressing this is a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31victory for them. They are calling for 5000 new nurses. We likely see
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that? That is half the story. We have more
2:52:32 > 2:52:31doctors in Wales than ever but it has to go hand in hand with
2:52:32 > 2:52:31pharmacists and practice nurses. Plaid Cymru are saying a thousand.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31That is for them to explain. When they talk about a thousand doctors,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31GPs? Orthopaedic surgeons? Because we don't understand the detail my
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the party can reach an agreement. We want to make sure Wales is an
2:52:32 > 2:52:31attractive place for all primary care professionals. You have too
2:52:32 > 2:52:31remembered this was an agreement to move us forward last week. It isn't
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a coalition agreement. The parties will disagree. Are you at Cross
2:52:32 > 2:52:31wires on certain areas? Plaid Cymru are saying they have got the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31national infrastructure commission which they are trumpeting as a huge
2:52:32 > 2:52:31deal in accessing money from financial markets. Is that your
2:52:32 > 2:52:31understanding? No, we have not gone into detail.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Should you have done that? That is for Plaid Cymru to come forward with
2:52:32 > 2:52:31ideas. We would not set up a quango. There is a difference of opinion on
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the M4 Black Root. What are your thoughts their?
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Batters got a process to go through. There will be a public enquiry. It
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is important is that enquiry looks at all the issues. We will not
2:52:32 > 2:52:31support of the blue route because it is a dual carriageway and there's no
2:52:32 > 2:52:31point in replacing one Doukara trip with another. It is a much cheaper
2:52:32 > 2:52:31than the black route. The blue route runs past thousands of people in
2:52:32 > 2:52:31their houses. Quite often, past their front doors. Anybody who
2:52:32 > 2:52:31supported that wouldn't win a seat in new parts for generations. Is the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31blue route that? It is a serious election issue in Newport. People
2:52:32 > 2:52:31used to tell me they don't want a motorway past their doors. The Black
2:52:32 > 2:52:31route is the route that is being perceived. We will have to see
2:52:32 > 2:52:31whether public enquiry says. Let's see what that inquiry's conclusions
2:52:32 > 2:52:31are. If you're in position after this inquiry when it is just you
2:52:32 > 2:52:31supporting the black roots, would you be happy accepting the support
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of the Conservatives? We don't know what the inquiry will show. If it
2:52:32 > 2:52:31turns round and says it is on something it should happen, we're
2:52:32 > 2:52:31back to the drawing board. We have to wait and see what the inquiry
2:52:32 > 2:52:31says. Have a look at the conclusions of that inquiry and take a decision
2:52:32 > 2:52:31then. So, wait and see. Carwyn Jones there, with his view
2:52:32 > 2:52:31on what we can expect The Leader of the Opposition
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to his plans, on paper at least, the leader of Plaid Cymru,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Leanne Wood is here with me now. We have seen Carwyn Jones rolling
2:52:32 > 2:52:31back on e-cigarettes, the number of councils in Wales. What you make of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that curve Mac it is good to see some movement on some things that I
2:52:32 > 2:52:31have to say I was disappointed overall to see the First Minister
2:52:32 > 2:52:31sounding exactly the same as the First Minister in the last
2:52:32 > 2:52:31administration. The way that he talked about the M4, for example,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31and is question about Plaid Cymru's commitment to getting an extra
2:52:32 > 2:52:31thousand doctors. It is an important point is to us. We are moving away
2:52:32 > 2:52:31from the agreements we made last week.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Is he really acting exactly as he did before the election? This
2:52:32 > 2:52:31morning he said there is no point banging our heads on the brick wall,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we have to understand supporters in there across the Assembly. We
2:52:32 > 2:52:31haven't got a monopoly on good ideas come he said. We are hearing some
2:52:32 > 2:52:31positive words but they are not being backed up by the action. What
2:52:32 > 2:52:31I saw in the interview there were still battle of the loft the Nile.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31He said there that Wales has more doctors than we've ever had before.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31That doesn't take away from the fact we have still got fewer doctors per
2:52:32 > 2:52:31head than any other country in the UK. Any other country barges to in
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the whole of the EU. The reason we have prioritised doctors and the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31reason why doctors were named and the training of doctors, that is an
2:52:32 > 2:52:31important point, what we have moved on in this agreement is the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31principle that we do need to train more doctors and that is imposed on
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is for training facilities and we will be pushing for a medical school
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in Bangor. But then I know details. That is what Carwyn Jones said. Now
2:52:32 > 2:52:31he is in place as First Minister, you have reached the agreement,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31without any details that is so much wiggle room you will end up getting
2:52:32 > 2:52:31far short of what you were hoping. After the agreement was announced,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31you were singing we have got nine key priorities but you are a long
2:52:32 > 2:52:31way away from what he wants. The danger faces the government if
2:52:32 > 2:52:31they continue to be intransigent because they need the support of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31another party to get their budget through. The way they tarnished and
2:52:32 > 2:52:31try to smear Plaid Cymru after having the Conservatives and Ukip
2:52:32 > 2:52:31voting with this, tells me it would be difficult for them to look for
2:52:32 > 2:52:31support from either of those two parties. One of the criteria that I
2:52:32 > 2:52:31will be looking at when we consider whether or not we support the budget
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in the future is how much progress is being made this agreement we have
2:52:32 > 2:52:31made week. If we see no progress, or if we seek backing down from that
2:52:32 > 2:52:31agreement, we will be having to consider carefully what we do with
2:52:32 > 2:52:31our votes. There are these three committees looking at those various
2:52:32 > 2:52:31deals. Let's try and iron out a few of them. On doctors, is there a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31minimum and which you won't go? Are you still hoping to get a thousand
2:52:32 > 2:52:31extra doctors, 5000 extra nurses? We want 1000 doctors. The reason why is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we have fewer doctors per head than so many other EU countries. We want
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to get Wales and the only way we can tackle waiting list is by having
2:52:32 > 2:52:31more people full stop he was saying you don't know what kind of doctors
2:52:32 > 2:52:31you want. We have made it very clear exactly how we want that mix-up of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31doctors and health care professionals to look. If he hasn't
2:52:32 > 2:52:31been briefed on that I suggest he needs to.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31What about an infrastructure commission? It was this huge new
2:52:32 > 2:52:31body, gets money from financial markets. Carwyn Jones said you
2:52:32 > 2:52:31weren't getting this quango. We never said it was going to be a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31quango. And arm's-length body? We have agreed to set one up and
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that was the agreements we made last week in order to allow him to be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31elected as First Minister. For Plaid Cymru support on future votes
2:52:32 > 2:52:31including registration and budgets, I expect to see some progress and no
2:52:32 > 2:52:31dig Andy agreements. -- reneging. How can you renege on an agreements
2:52:32 > 2:52:31without any details? It is called a compact. But there
2:52:32 > 2:52:31are no details. There is an agreements to see
2:52:32 > 2:52:31progress on five of Plaid Cymru smack pledges. I am not saying each
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of those five are full. If the agreement is kept but there will be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31progress on five of those commitments. What I want to see at
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the end of this term is progress made on all nine and indeed more of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the policy commitment in our manifesto. At the end of the day
2:52:32 > 2:52:31this country needs to seek progress and I spent the election saying, if
2:52:32 > 2:52:31we carry on doing what we have always done we will get what we've
2:52:32 > 2:52:31always got. It does seem to be stalemate on the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31M4 Black route was up Carwyn Jones said I am willing to negotiate on
2:52:32 > 2:52:31e-cigarettes, councils but not on blue route. He said, no. What
2:52:32 > 2:52:31happens there? He has the option of going to the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Conservatives for support. There are political consequences to doing
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that. I have always said that the Black route is too expensive, it
2:52:32 > 2:52:31causes too many environmental problems and it focuses all our
2:52:32 > 2:52:31borrowing capacity on one part of Wales where there is need in other
2:52:32 > 2:52:31parts. I am not intransigent on this. I will be prepared to look at
2:52:32 > 2:52:31other options but not that black roots.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31So it is back to the drawing board. When Ieuan Jones was in charge of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31transport he held an enquiry and that inquiry showed that black Blues
2:52:32 > 2:52:31would not reduce the traffic and just in overtime. Why would we want
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to spend in excess of the billion pounds on a project that doesn't
2:52:32 > 2:52:31actually achieve... Plaid Cymru won't support the Black route. If
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the government wanted to go ahead, it has to have the support of the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31loan Liberal Democrats and the Tories. I would say, good luck to
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that. Just one quick question. Is there a danger you have been conned?
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Looking at health, doctors, the issue of a commission. Have you been
2:52:32 > 2:52:31conned? I don't think so. I guess time will
2:52:32 > 2:52:31tell. When we see the way in which the Assembly pans out of the next
2:52:32 > 2:52:31five years I think we will arrive at the end of the process realising
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Plaid Cymru has had a lot of power in this term. Thank you very much
2:52:32 > 2:52:31for your time. Well, all this excitement has
2:52:32 > 2:52:31been a bit much for us, so we're taking a little holiday
2:52:32 > 2:52:31next week and will be But we're going to end today
2:52:32 > 2:52:31on a bit of music, reflecting all the ups and downs
2:52:32 > 2:52:31since the election. This is from my colleague at BBC
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Wales Online, Phil John. Something to tide you over
2:52:32 > 2:52:31until we meet again. # Having to spend each day
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the colour of the leaves # Let me be the one
2:52:32 > 2:52:31you're looking for # I'm on the top of the world
2:52:32 > 2:52:31looking down on creation # I'm on the How top of the world
2:52:32 > 2:52:31looking down on creation # And the only
2:52:32 > 2:52:31explanation I can find # This town ain't big
2:52:32 > 2:52:31enough for the both of us # And it ain't me
2:52:32 > 2:52:31who's going to leave # Turned around and smiled at me,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31do you get the picture? # That's when I fell
2:52:32 > 2:52:31for the leader of the pack # But everybody's changing and I
2:52:32 > 2:52:31don't feel the same. it is therefore the public
2:52:32 > 2:52:31as well as serving a useful purpose of actually being
2:52:32 > 2:52:31able to get across. To you both, thank you very much
2:52:32 > 2:52:31indeed. And with that, it is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31back to you, Andrew. Treasury warnings on Brexit,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is Labour on course for 2020, and are there enough women
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in the referendum campaign? And joining me and my panel
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of so-called experts, is the former Deputy Leader
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of the Labour Party Harriet Harman. Wellcome, it is nice to see you
2:52:32 > 2:52:31again. The Treasury has already told us how bad the economy will be in
2:52:32 > 2:52:312030, but nobody really knows. This is about, in their view, the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31immediate impact on interest rates, mortgages, jobs, house prices,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31before the autumn is out. This I would suggest is politically more
2:52:32 > 2:52:31significant? Yes, and it is absolutely the Remain campaign's
2:52:32 > 2:52:31biggest howitzer which is why they are firing it now. This is the last
2:52:32 > 2:52:31time they can deploy the full mast ranks of the government's resources
2:52:32 > 2:52:31into the campaign. Most people disagree passionately in this
2:52:32 > 2:52:31campaign about whether over the long-term the British economy will
2:52:32 > 2:52:31prosper or not outside the EU. Pretty much everybody, I think apart
2:52:32 > 2:52:31from Boris Johnson has admits it there might be some short-term
2:52:32 > 2:52:31problems. It is the same with retail. We have heard from the Prime
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Minister today. And mortgages, smacking people as hard as they can
2:52:32 > 2:52:31in their pockets. Even Boris Johnson said there would be a fall because
2:52:32 > 2:52:31he hopes it will go up. People may be nervous that when they get onto
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that tick it does not stop falling. It will be a difficult one for the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Leave campaign? Guess, and I am picking up a lot of concern in the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31various Brexit camps. They look as if they have conceded the argument
2:52:32 > 2:52:31on the economy. Of course, they emphatically argue the opposite
2:52:32 > 2:52:31direction is that we can do even better out, but there is a lot of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31concern among those who want to leave, that those who are
2:52:32 > 2:52:31representing them in these campaigns, are not putting the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31argument strongly enough and are almost backing of it which is why we
2:52:32 > 2:52:31are hearing arguments about Turkey and immigration and other things. I
2:52:32 > 2:52:31think Leave has to come out really strongly and rebut what the Treasury
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is saying point by point, whether it is on food prices, and there is a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31compelling argument that the Common Agricultural Policy example
2:52:32 > 2:52:31massively distorts prices. Food may not be more expensive when we come
2:52:32 > 2:52:31out so we need to rebut it line by line. -- they need to rebut it. The
2:52:32 > 2:52:31polling suggests if you are worried about the economy you will more
2:52:32 > 2:52:31likely to vote Remain, if you are more worried about public services,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31you will be more likely to vote Leave. This will create a sense of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31economic uncertainty? Yes, and it will be interesting if they make a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31GDP prediction. We are talking about food prices and employment but will
2:52:32 > 2:52:31they predict a technical recession in GDP which I imagine will happen
2:52:32 > 2:52:31if we vote to leave. The Bank of England has admitted that is a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31possibility. I can think of people who are very high up in British
2:52:32 > 2:52:31public life who are downplaying their view about how bad the GDP
2:52:32 > 2:52:31crisis will be in the short-term. I agree with Isobel, it is strange to
2:52:32 > 2:52:31concede the short-term economic argument. You cannot say here is the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31reality of a short-term recession. In return, there is the prospect of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a longer-term economic benefit which realises in 2030. Labour does not
2:52:32 > 2:52:31normally think very much of Tory forecasts. Will you accept this? We
2:52:32 > 2:52:31are very concerned about jobs and prices and we are very concerned
2:52:32 > 2:52:31about the cavalier sense that it might be a bit of a problem in the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31short-term but it will be fine in the long-term, two reasons.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Obviously, the Treasury forecasts will be very well worth picking
2:52:32 > 2:52:31through and looking through and will be very persuasive. As far as the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31short-term is concerned, we are trying to find our way out of a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31global financial crisis, and the idea that it would not cause major
2:52:32 > 2:52:31uncertainty and instability to leave an economic union that we have been
2:52:32 > 2:52:31part of four decades, it is a no-brainer even before tomorrow. You
2:52:32 > 2:52:31think the short-term is a problem if we vote to leave? It will be a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31problem about jobs, a problem about prices. Why on earth would we want
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to try and distance ourselves from this biggest trading block of 500
2:52:32 > 2:52:31million people. Why would we want to struggle for keeping our head above
2:52:32 > 2:52:31water in the longer term when we are in the EU as we are? I think it is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31cavalier from people who are not worried about prices and to feel
2:52:32 > 2:52:31happy that their jobs are fine, let's make this bid for freedom. I
2:52:32 > 2:52:31think it is reckless. Reckless? I think there is an accession among
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the Remain camp and it is interesting that Harriet brings this
2:52:32 > 2:52:31up, constantly bringing up trade associations. We can trade without
2:52:32 > 2:52:31trade deals. We talk about the Remain camp focuses highly on the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31importance of the trade deals have, but we are a service economy run
2:52:32 > 2:52:31airily, and those trade deals do not cover the service sector. We can
2:52:32 > 2:52:31trade but if you look without trade deals, that means paying tariffs,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31for example. If you look at the food in our supermarkets which comes in
2:52:32 > 2:52:31from Europe, they can put tariffs on that to make it cost more, and why
2:52:32 > 2:52:31wouldn't they, if we opt out of that free trade area? They would not put
2:52:32 > 2:52:31tariffs on food coming into Britain. We might do that, but they would not
2:52:32 > 2:52:31do that. We would take off the tariffs from the food that comes
2:52:32 > 2:52:31from America, Australia and New Zealand. We are in an established
2:52:32 > 2:52:31range of trading which has been going on for decades and has seen
2:52:32 > 2:52:31food prices going down. That is a big issue if you are on a low
2:52:32 > 2:52:31income. Why would we take that risk? The former chief executives of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31supermarkets, and they have not got any skin in the game because they
2:52:32 > 2:52:31are former chief executives, they have said because of these
2:52:32 > 2:52:31established arrangements, prices are likely to go up. We will hear more
2:52:32 > 2:52:31of that this week with the Treasury report which is coming out tomorrow
2:52:32 > 2:52:31morning. Talking about the economy, let's hear a word from John
2:52:32 > 2:52:31McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor about Labour in the economy. This is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31what he had to say yesterday. Our whole society could do so much
2:52:32 > 2:52:31better than we are at the moment. What we have attempted over the last
2:52:32 > 2:52:31eight months is to lay out the framework by which Labour can
2:52:32 > 2:52:31win the next election, and then set about the fundamental
2:52:32 > 2:52:31business of transforming capitalism. We should aim at nothing
2:52:32 > 2:52:31less than that. So, socialism in one parliament,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31that must excite you? He is talking about a new economic policy which
2:52:32 > 2:52:31will talk about fairness and investment and he says we will be on
2:52:32 > 2:52:31a listening exercise as they put the flesh on the bones. He is talking
2:52:32 > 2:52:31about remaking capitalism, not reforming it, not liberalising it,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31remaking capitalism. Is that realistic? I think there is a bit of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31remaking to be done, for example, remaking the responsibilities of big
2:52:32 > 2:52:31businesses to repay their taxes, do we think it is all sorted? It is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31certainly not. Every government tells me they will put more
2:52:32 > 2:52:31apprentices and you look carefully and they don't really. This
2:52:32 > 2:52:31government, a lot of the apprentices are not what the Germans or
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Austrians would regard as apprentices. Chasing that tax seems
2:52:32 > 2:52:31to be in a never-ending chase as you try and close the loopholes. Because
2:52:32 > 2:52:31it has not necessarily been done so far, and all credit to Margaret
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Hodge and the Public Accounts Committee in exposing all of this,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31does not mean it cannot be done. We could have lots more investment if
2:52:32 > 2:52:31people paid their tax and we could have much more prosperity in the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31economy, but he is recognising we have to convince people that they
2:52:32 > 2:52:31can trust us on the economy. Are you happy with the direction he is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31taking you? I think the principles he is setting out is right. We got
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the wrong answer in the general election last time and we got to be
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the opposition rather than the government, and we have to get a
2:52:32 > 2:52:31different answer next time and that means convincing the public. It is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31about setting up a framework that also making sure we are listening to
2:52:32 > 2:52:31what the public's concerns are about us, not what we want to hear but
2:52:32 > 2:52:31what they are saying. You don't think there are enough women
2:52:32 > 2:52:31involved in the referendum campaign? Would it not be fair to say that it
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is really the Remain side which has the female problem. The Leave site
2:52:32 > 2:52:31has Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey, pretty Patel, Penny Mordaunt and so on. It
2:52:32 > 2:52:31is your side which is lacking the women -- pretty Patel. There is
2:52:32 > 2:52:31hardly anything between either side. Really? Could you
2:52:32 > 2:52:31hardly anything between either side. that? One of the things we are
2:52:32 > 2:52:31hardly anything between either side. saying is actually, being in the EU
2:52:32 > 2:52:31has helped back-up women at work. It is paradoxical, and it might seem
2:52:32 > 2:52:31unlikely, but the EU has been a strong friend to women at work and
2:52:32 > 2:52:31these directives which governments always do not like, either Labour
2:52:32 > 2:52:31these directives which governments the Tories don't like the idea of
2:52:32 > 2:52:31directives from Europe, but they have been backing up part-time
2:52:32 > 2:52:31workers... I understand have been backing up part-time
2:52:32 > 2:52:31am looking at the fact have been backing up part-time
2:52:32 > 2:52:31said there are not enough have been backing up part-time
2:52:32 > 2:52:31voices in the campaign. Do you agree with that? I would agree with you.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31voices in the campaign. Do you agree The Leave women are pretty loud.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Where is The Leave women are pretty loud.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31single biggest female voice and she is almost mute. The idea that the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Leave side is in some post feminist political nirvana is for the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31absolute birds. political nirvana is for the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Leave side I think of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage and
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Leave side I think of Boris Johnson to think about it. I just gave
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Leave side I think of Boris Johnson prominent women campaigners. Are you
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Leave side I think of Boris Johnson haven? No, I don't think they would
2:52:32 > 2:52:31know what that is. haven? No, I don't think they would
2:52:32 > 2:52:31work out if haven? No, I don't think they would
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the EU is a beacon haven? No, I don't think they would
2:52:32 > 2:52:31equality. I would like you to look at this.
2:52:32 > 2:52:31equality. I would like you to look in the European Union. Something
2:52:32 > 2:52:31probably strikes you about that. Where is the gender equality in the
2:52:32 > 2:52:31EU in the top seven jobs? That is why it is an irony that actually,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31the directives and European court judgments have backed up women at
2:52:32 > 2:52:31work. Except in the EU itself? But if you look at the Treaty of Rome,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31which was very much ahead of its time, saying you have to pay women
2:52:32 > 2:52:31equally and treat women equally... It is do as I say, not as I do. It
2:52:32 > 2:52:31looks like a boys' club up there. It is do as I say, not as I do. It
2:52:32 > 2:52:31And the other thing that strikes me about this row of men. Who
2:52:32 > 2:52:31those people? Could you even recognise one of them? I do know who
2:52:32 > 2:52:31they are and I don't like the fact they are all men... That tells
2:52:32 > 2:52:31about the EU and our sovereignty. No, it does not. The directives from
2:52:32 > 2:52:31Europe have backed up women at work, No, it does not. The directives from
2:52:32 > 2:52:31part-timers, low-paid women, women having babies. If
2:52:32 > 2:52:31part-timers, low-paid women, women would have done it, more better. Why
2:52:32 > 2:52:31haven't they read the directives? would have done it, more better. Why
2:52:32 > 2:52:31don't know who they are. That speaks for itself. They
2:52:32 > 2:52:31don't know who they are. That speaks think should be running us and you
2:52:32 > 2:52:31don't know who they are! I am think should be running us and you
2:52:32 > 2:52:31talking about the facts of the impact for women at work about us
2:52:32 > 2:52:31being in the EU and our rights on maternity and equal pay. The
2:52:32 > 2:52:31directives have helped us even when our own government have not. They do
2:52:32 > 2:52:31not seem to have got the message. You have picked them at random! No,
2:52:32 > 2:52:31they are not! Bayard the top seven jobs in the EU. Ranks to all our
2:52:32 > 2:52:31guests, good to see Harry it back. -- thanks to all our guests, good to
2:52:32 > 2:52:31see Harry it back. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday
2:52:32 > 2:52:32Politics, unless it is the Whitsun bank holiday.