05/06/2016

Download Subtitles

Transcript

:00:38. > :00:44.Just over a fortnight to go, and the referendum debate is getting

:00:45. > :00:46.serious, with Boris Johnson and John Major the latest senior

:00:47. > :00:51.We'll be discussing all the week's big developments,

:00:52. > :00:59.We've hit the road with both campaigns, and we've got two big

:01:00. > :01:04.I'll be joined by Labour's John Prescott,

:01:05. > :01:08.And, if you haven't decided how to vote yet,

:01:09. > :01:18.One MP who's only now finally reached a decision will reveal live

:01:19. > :01:23.With the EU referendum just around the corner, we have got a special

:01:24. > :01:27.programme in Brussels looking at what people will mean for the money

:01:28. > :01:33.in your pocket, services in Wales and for industry.

:01:34. > :01:37.And, in a week in which one poll showed the public are three times

:01:38. > :01:39.more likely to trust the word of a random stranger

:01:40. > :01:45.And, in a week in which one poll showed the public are three times

:01:46. > :01:47.I'm joined by a political panel with the full authority

:01:48. > :01:50.It's Sam Coates, Isabel Oakeshott, and Janan Ganesh.

:01:51. > :01:52.We'll try and find some random strangers to replace

:01:53. > :01:57.them next week, and see if you notice the difference!

:01:58. > :02:00.So, in case you weren't sure just how high the stakes were in this

:02:01. > :02:02.referendum campaign, you only have to look at this

:02:03. > :02:05.morning's papers, and listen to former Prime Minister John Major

:02:06. > :02:07.taking aim at his fellow Tories in the Leave campaign.

:02:08. > :02:10.The current Prime Minister David Cameron tried to get his party

:02:11. > :02:12.to avoid so-called blue-on-blue attacks, in the hope of keeping

:02:13. > :02:17.It seems like John Major didn't get the message,

:02:18. > :02:20.as he accused the Leave campaign of squalid deceit,

:02:21. > :02:24.and called Boris Johnson a court jester.

:02:25. > :02:28.Here he is, talking to Andrew Marr earlier.

:02:29. > :02:33.This is going to affect people, their livelihoods, their future,

:02:34. > :02:36.for a very long time to come, and if they are given honest,

:02:37. > :02:38.straightforward facts and they decide to leave,

:02:39. > :02:40.then that is the decision the British people take.

:02:41. > :02:46.But if they decide to leave on the basis of inaccurate

:02:47. > :02:48.information, inaccurate information known to be inaccurate,

:02:49. > :02:56.Now, I may be wrong, but that is how I see their campaign.

:02:57. > :02:59.And this is so important, for once, I'm not prepared to give the benefit

:03:00. > :03:04.of the doubt to other people, I'm going to say

:03:05. > :03:08.And I think this is a deceitful campaign, and in terms

:03:09. > :03:10.of what they are saying about immigration, a really

:03:11. > :03:16.They are misleading people to an extraordinary extent.

:03:17. > :03:18.So, that was former Prime Minister John Major, but,

:03:19. > :03:22.when Boris Johnson took to the same sofa, he studiously declined

:03:23. > :03:25.to return fire when asked if those words were part of an attempt

:03:26. > :03:29.by the Remain campaign to "take him out".

:03:30. > :03:31.Whether it is or not, this morning I think that...

:03:32. > :03:32.I'm rather with John McDonnell this morning...

:03:33. > :03:39.He says that there's too much of this sort of blue-on-blue action,

:03:40. > :03:41.and what he wants to hear is the arguments,

:03:42. > :03:57.Boris failing to take the bait. As I said, John major hadn't got the

:03:58. > :04:01.memo from down the street, that was a joke.

:04:02. > :04:05.The fact was John Major was sent into the show by Downing Street to

:04:06. > :04:09.beat up on Boris. Is that an example, a testament to have rattled

:04:10. > :04:13.they are? My own evidence is they are very

:04:14. > :04:25.rattled, they got extremely twitchy about something I tweeted on Friday

:04:26. > :04:31.night where I suggested a prominent Remain person was appearing on sky.

:04:32. > :04:36.This shows the level of nerves in Downing Street. The kind of language

:04:37. > :04:40.being exchanged between senior figures in the party raises very

:04:41. > :04:43.serious questions about how the party comes together.

:04:44. > :04:48.We had Michael Gove this morning saying he thinks the party can come

:04:49. > :04:54.together on June the 24th. Of course they can, but I doubt it will be on

:04:55. > :04:58.June the 24th. It is quite remarkable for a

:04:59. > :05:03.Conservative Downing Street to get a former Conservative prime ministers

:05:04. > :05:08.to come onto the BBC, the main Sunday morning news show, Andrew

:05:09. > :05:11.Maher, and to beat up on the man who is currently favourite to be the

:05:12. > :05:17.Tory leader. That is almost unprecedented.

:05:18. > :05:22.John Major put his credibility on the line with phrases like squalid,

:05:23. > :05:27.depressing. He was going for Boris Johnson.

:05:28. > :05:32.There is a clear, strategic imperative behind what John Major

:05:33. > :05:35.was saying, he is trying to reduce Boris Johnson's credibility,

:05:36. > :05:39.currently the most popular and trusted figure in the EU debate.

:05:40. > :05:43.They are worried and trying to harm that.

:05:44. > :05:48.So, they are going for the man. The Big Questions this morning for

:05:49. > :05:53.Downing Street, and it is right to point fingers at Downing Street for

:05:54. > :05:57.pushing this kind of intervention, stiffening John Major's spines when

:05:58. > :06:00.it turned out Boris was going to be on the programme I think he had a

:06:01. > :06:07.bubble. That is my understanding. The danger

:06:08. > :06:14.is that Downing Street are encouraging this, to send this

:06:15. > :06:18.debate into a Tory blue-on-blue battle.

:06:19. > :06:20.The effect may well be to deter Labour voters.

:06:21. > :06:27.The people who want Britain to stay inside you need to do two things, to

:06:28. > :06:33.make sure Tory voters vote for Remain, and turn out the Remain vote

:06:34. > :06:36.against Labour and SNB voters. The question is whether having all

:06:37. > :06:45.the headlines dominated by this blue-on-blue fight -- SNP.

:06:46. > :06:50.It means people shrug and give up. It is more than just blue-on-blue.

:06:51. > :06:56.From what John Major said this morning, it seems Downing Street is

:06:57. > :07:00.prepared to trash the Tory brand, their own brand, in desperation to

:07:01. > :07:06.win on June the 23rd. John Major describing one of the

:07:07. > :07:09.likely people to be the ex-Tory leader -- next Tory leader as a

:07:10. > :07:12.court jester. Saying, if you put Michael Gove,

:07:13. > :07:18.Boris Johnson comic Iain Duncan Smith in charge of the NHS, is like

:07:19. > :07:23.giving your pet hamster to a buy them. A second Tory poster. How can

:07:24. > :07:28.you not conclude they are so desperate about June the 23rd they

:07:29. > :07:35.are prepared to trash their own party's brand.

:07:36. > :07:39.Short of using the B word when he thought the Microsoft when talking

:07:40. > :07:43.to Michael Brunson, it was very vociferous.

:07:44. > :07:46.It is true Boris Johnson did not retaliate in the interview. John

:07:47. > :07:52.Major and number ten would argue that retaliation was made very

:07:53. > :07:54.early, over the past few weeks, the Prime Minister's integrity on some

:07:55. > :08:01.questions had been brought into doubt by people in his own party.

:08:02. > :08:04.Without defending number ten's instructions to John Major if they

:08:05. > :08:10.exist, they feel aggrieved because of attacks during the campaign.

:08:11. > :08:13.Looking at the footage of John Major, I detect sincere emotion on

:08:14. > :08:18.his part, rather than being a mouthpiece.

:08:19. > :08:23.I did argue that he didn't mean what he said.

:08:24. > :08:26.As Sam was saying, he didn't want to come on.

:08:27. > :08:28.This is such an important development, it tells us about the

:08:29. > :08:32.remain camped. Now, staying with the EU referendum,

:08:33. > :08:34.today we're going to try Two well-informed campaigners,

:08:35. > :08:38.the Conservative MEP Dan Hannan and the Labour MP Emma Reynolds,

:08:39. > :08:43.will be interrogating each other I'll mostly just be sitting

:08:44. > :08:47.back to watch. A short while ago in our green room,

:08:48. > :08:51.they tossed a coin to see Emma is the winner, or loser,

:08:52. > :08:58.depending on your point of view, so they'll be the first

:08:59. > :09:02.to be cross-examined. They took a break in campaigning

:09:03. > :09:05.to make their pitch I'm Daniel Hannan, Conservative

:09:06. > :09:14.Member of the European Parliament, and I'm inviting you to fire me

:09:15. > :09:16.on the 23rd of June. First, because leaving

:09:17. > :09:20.is the modern choice. The European Union

:09:21. > :09:22.is a relic of the 1950s, when regional blocs

:09:23. > :09:28.looked like the future, but that world has been overtaken

:09:29. > :09:31.by technological change. Second, because it's

:09:32. > :09:37.the cheaper choice. Instead of handing Brussels

:09:38. > :09:39.?20 billion a year gross, 10 billion net, we'll have our money

:09:40. > :09:46.to spend on our priorities. We will take back the sublime right

:09:47. > :10:00.to hire and fire our own lawmakers. In a necessarily uncertain world,

:10:01. > :10:03.we will have taken back control to mitigate any risks ourselves

:10:04. > :10:07.instead of passing power to people who may not

:10:08. > :10:10.have our interests at heart. And fifth, because it's

:10:11. > :10:14.the confident choice. We are a merchant,

:10:15. > :10:17.maritime, global nation, the fifth largest economy

:10:18. > :10:21.on the planet, one of five permanent seat-holders

:10:22. > :10:25.on the UN Security Council. We have the world's most

:10:26. > :10:27.widely studied language, before we are able to run our own

:10:28. > :10:34.affairs in our own interests? Trading and cooperating with friends

:10:35. > :10:37.and allies on every continent, including Europe,

:10:38. > :10:43.but living under our own laws. So, here are Dan Hannan

:10:44. > :10:45.and Emma Reynolds. And, just to explain the rules,

:10:46. > :10:47.you've just five You can only ask questions,

:10:48. > :11:01.or only give answers. Nine out of ten economists and a

:11:02. > :11:05.string of organisations say leaving the EU would damage the economy,

:11:06. > :11:10.make families worse off, cause a recession, could you name an

:11:11. > :11:13.independent economic force -- economic forecaster who has said the

:11:14. > :11:15.opposite? Five former chancellors are

:11:16. > :11:22.campaigning to leave, plenty of economists, ...

:11:23. > :11:28.Gerard Lyons has said, although in favour of leaving, if we were to

:11:29. > :11:32.vote to leave, the two years, it would cause great uncertainty and

:11:33. > :11:35.depress the economy. He hasn't said that. He said that in

:11:36. > :11:41.a report. He hasn't. You will have to do

:11:42. > :11:45.better than that. He is strongly of the view leaving means walking away

:11:46. > :11:51.from a declining trade bloc and being able to leap up... And the

:11:52. > :11:59.uncertainty? All these international bodies...

:12:00. > :12:04.Hang on. The IMF, these are people who shared the outlook,

:12:05. > :12:10.international bureaucrats, they share the lifestyle, the tax-free

:12:11. > :12:19.lifestyle, they shared the basic outlook. Through euros, because that

:12:20. > :12:22.is the kind of circles they live in. The Institute for Fiscal Studies is

:12:23. > :12:28.widely respected, they have said by leaving we could blow a black hole

:12:29. > :12:33.of up to ?40 billion in our public finances, meaning less money for

:12:34. > :12:39.public services. They were feeding in the same basic

:12:40. > :12:42.data they got from these IMF, OECD organisations.

:12:43. > :12:45.They are independent. If I didn't think we would be better off as a

:12:46. > :12:52.whole, I would not be inviting viewers to make me redundant. The

:12:53. > :12:55.reason I am confident I will have a job in the private sector doing

:12:56. > :13:00.something more productive than regulating everyone else is we

:13:01. > :13:06.shouldn't be linked to the world is Oates only collapsing trade bloc.

:13:07. > :13:12.There are huge opportunity -- the world's. We are the only one that

:13:13. > :13:18.hasn't grown. Another question, you have described

:13:19. > :13:22.the NHS as the biggest 60 year mistake, why can the public trust

:13:23. > :13:27.the Leave campaign when they don't want the NHS to be in public hands?

:13:28. > :13:32.I said the mistake was having a nationalised system rather than a

:13:33. > :13:35.pluralist one as they have in almost every other industrialised country.

:13:36. > :13:40.The referendum is an instruction to the Government to get us out.

:13:41. > :13:44.It does not mean you are electing the boat Leave campaign, but giving

:13:45. > :13:51.a mandate to get us out on terms and in a timescale said to our allies

:13:52. > :13:57.across the control -- the channel but in our interests.

:13:58. > :14:02.We are really looking at a decision to leave and asking people not to

:14:03. > :14:06.trust any other politician but the British electorate.

:14:07. > :14:09.The weight of economic evidence is on the remain camped, you would

:14:10. > :14:13.admit that at least. Can you name a country that has

:14:14. > :14:17.access to the single market but does not accept free movement?

:14:18. > :14:23.The EU side free trade agreements with Colombia...

:14:24. > :14:27.You said access to the single market, every country in Europe has

:14:28. > :14:33.access to the single market. There is a free trade area from

:14:34. > :14:38.non-EU Iceland... Why therefore does Ireland and

:14:39. > :14:43.Norway faced agricultural tariffs of over 13%?

:14:44. > :14:48.Ireland and Norway? Icelands and Norway.

:14:49. > :14:53.Yes, they have wisely chosen to stay out of the Common Agricultural

:14:54. > :14:59.Policy. Their farmers are strongly in favour of staying out of the CIP.

:15:00. > :15:02.If we did the same thing, instead of being doubly penalised as a net food

:15:03. > :15:07.importer with efficient farms, paying more in, getting less out, we

:15:08. > :15:14.can have a British farming policy tailored to suit our needs.

:15:15. > :15:18.In Northern Ireland, you suggested the border would remain open between

:15:19. > :15:23.the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. How can you therefore

:15:24. > :15:25.guarantee that if you want to stop free movement, that European

:15:26. > :15:30.migrants would not come through that border? You are leaving the back

:15:31. > :15:36.door open. Illegal migrants could come through that border today but

:15:37. > :15:40.do not. They could come through legally. We have an agreement which

:15:41. > :15:45.includes the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, which are not in

:15:46. > :15:50.the, it long predates the EU. The point is it is possible now, don't

:15:51. > :15:55.take anyone's word for it, we have a common travel area with EU and

:15:56. > :15:59.non-EU states, no-one in Dublin or Westminster is suggesting that is a

:16:00. > :16:02.problem. We have only three seconds to go, tough and time in the

:16:03. > :16:08.interests of fairness! It is the dunnock Emma to be cross-examined,

:16:09. > :16:14.let's look at her pitch to undecided voters.

:16:15. > :16:16.We are stronger, safer and better off in Europe.

:16:17. > :16:18.Families benefit from lower prices, more jobs,

:16:19. > :16:21.Businesses benefit from a European single market

:16:22. > :16:27.Workers benefit from employment protection.

:16:28. > :16:29.We trade more with the EU than any other country.

:16:30. > :16:34.from companies like Jaguar Land Rover here in the West Midlands.

:16:35. > :16:37.And by staying in the EU, we will attract even more investment

:16:38. > :16:40.and create more jobs for the next generation.

:16:41. > :16:43.In the 21st century, the challenges that our country face

:16:44. > :16:45.no longer stop at the White Cliffs of Dover.

:16:46. > :16:47.Cross-border crime and terrorism, climate change -

:16:48. > :16:48.by working with our European partners,

:16:49. > :16:55.we can meet these challenges successfully.

:16:56. > :17:00.predicts that damage will be done to our economy if we leave.

:17:01. > :17:03.And the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney,

:17:04. > :17:15.It would create a black hole in our public finances,

:17:16. > :17:19.meaning less money for our public services, like schools and the NHS.

:17:20. > :17:30.for more jobs, prosperity and security.

:17:31. > :17:32.As before, Dan, you now have five minutes

:17:33. > :17:36.to put your questions. Off you go.

:17:37. > :17:44.Thank you. As you know, the EU is not a settled dispensation, it is

:17:45. > :17:48.undergoing the Euro crisis, the Schengen crisis, migration problems,

:17:49. > :17:54.and it is evolving - what are the greatest risks of Remain? Well, you

:17:55. > :17:59.would keep your job! You seem to want to lose your job. I don't think

:18:00. > :18:03.that there are great risks of as remaining, because we have the best

:18:04. > :18:07.of both worlds. We are not in the eurozone, we have the pound as our

:18:08. > :18:11.currency, like eight other member states retain their currency, but we

:18:12. > :18:15.have unfettered access to the single market, and no other country... What

:18:16. > :18:20.can you tell us about budget contributions in ten or 15 years'

:18:21. > :18:30.time? I know what our budget contributions are today, not what is

:18:31. > :18:32.on the side of your bus. How many migrants might be resettled here?

:18:33. > :18:36.More came from outside of the EU than inside. Can you tell us how

:18:37. > :18:41.many bailouts we might be dragged into? Zero. So if we vote to stay

:18:42. > :18:45.in, even though we had a written guarantee in 2014 that which would

:18:46. > :18:58.not be dragged into a bailout, you trust them this time? You say that

:18:59. > :19:03.but you are a MEP. I am asking the questions. I think the ministers go

:19:04. > :19:10.to the Council of Ministers meetings, 97% of the votes won, we

:19:11. > :19:14.are not run by Eurocrats. You cannot answer any of the questions about

:19:15. > :19:19.how it might look if we stay in, so there are risks both ways. Is it

:19:20. > :19:22.safer to take back control to mitigate risks ourselves, or save a

:19:23. > :19:27.passing control to people who may not have our interests at heart? I

:19:28. > :19:32.do not know why you mistrust our European partners to such a great

:19:33. > :19:35.extent, because the challenges we face in the 21st century, climate

:19:36. > :19:39.change, cross-border crime, terrorism, those are challenges we

:19:40. > :19:43.share with our partners. Let me ask another question, in our country we

:19:44. > :19:46.have an example of a very high-minded, radical tradition that

:19:47. > :19:52.has been very good at dispersing power from oligarchs to the general

:19:53. > :19:56.population. As an heiress to the suffragettes and the chartists, do

:19:57. > :19:59.you feel comfortable backing an elitist, anti-democratic project

:20:00. > :20:03.where supreme power is wielded by people immune to the ballot box,

:20:04. > :20:07.where we pay more to wealthy French farmers than poor African farmers,

:20:08. > :20:10.and where we have inflicted joblessness and misery on tens of

:20:11. > :20:14.millions of people around the Mediterranean while Eurocrats like

:20:15. > :20:19.around in private jets? Does that seem comfortable as a person on the

:20:20. > :20:23.centre-left? I feel comfortable because I feel the EU has been a

:20:24. > :20:26.force for good in terms of employment protection, in a way a

:20:27. > :20:30.Conservative governments never has, comfortable because we elect our

:20:31. > :20:35.MEPs, and we elect a government that sends ministers to Brussels to have

:20:36. > :20:38.the final say on European regulations, and I feel comfortable

:20:39. > :20:43.as a British MP that over the vast majority of policy areas, whether

:20:44. > :20:48.health, housing, education, policing, we have confidence in

:20:49. > :20:52.those areas. So Lord Rose, the leader of the remainder campaign

:20:53. > :20:56.says Vote Leave for higher wages, Paddy Ashdown says we will get

:20:57. > :21:01.cheaper food, don't you think there are benefits to the majority of low

:21:02. > :21:06.and medium income people from having that boosting household income? On

:21:07. > :21:10.the contrary. So they are wrong? I think they are wrong, people in my

:21:11. > :21:18.constituency, low and middle incomes, they will suffer the most

:21:19. > :21:22.if manufacturing is eliminated, according to the Brexit Economist,

:21:23. > :21:25.the Bank of England governor has predicted a recession, and it will

:21:26. > :21:31.be people I reserve present who will be worse after macro, not people

:21:32. > :21:37.earning high income jobs. -- worse off. What is the strongest argument

:21:38. > :21:41.for voting Leave? I don't think there is one. None at all? This is

:21:42. > :21:47.one of the things that puzzles a lot of people trying to make up their

:21:48. > :21:52.mind. You do not think there are any benefits of staying in the EU. It is

:21:53. > :21:55.not my job to tell you them, but I can see them! People make an issue

:21:56. > :21:59.out of being so broad-minded and reasonable, but they struggle to see

:22:00. > :22:04.the other point of view at all. They cannot put themselves in the shoes

:22:05. > :22:07.of the people that the EU is not benefiting, which is the vast

:22:08. > :22:10.majority. There is a lot of scaremongering on your side about

:22:11. > :22:15.what might happen, because if we stay in, we will pretty much have

:22:16. > :22:19.the status quo, access to a market where we trade more than with the

:22:20. > :22:27.rest of the world, 44% of our exports go to the rest of the EU.

:22:28. > :22:31.Our trade unions represent four million people who think we should

:22:32. > :22:35.stay. I would rather this on to them than you. Do you think the European

:22:36. > :22:40.Union is a growing, successful scheme that people would join today

:22:41. > :22:45.if we were not already a member? Yes no? Yes. We ended there, I thank you

:22:46. > :22:47.both for that. So, this week both sides of this

:22:48. > :22:50.referendum have really The big set-piece TV

:22:51. > :22:53.grillings have begun. Senior Conservatives have been

:22:54. > :22:55.knocking lumps out of each other. And the Labour machine seems finally

:22:56. > :22:58.to have creaked into life. We'll be talking about

:22:59. > :23:00.all of that today. But, first, our Adam's been

:23:01. > :23:02.on the buses to see where this

:23:03. > :23:03.campaign is heading. There's livestock,

:23:04. > :23:05.there's Boris Johnson, and there's a man

:23:06. > :23:09.with a stuffed animal. Well, I suppose I could have

:23:10. > :23:13.accidentally bought the cow This was the week the referendum

:23:14. > :23:22.started to feel a bit more like a general election

:23:23. > :23:24.campaign, and not just because of

:23:25. > :23:26.the photo op. Vote Leave unveiled

:23:27. > :23:27.a spending commitment, cutting the VAT on domestic fuel,

:23:28. > :23:30.and a whole new immigration system - And here Boris told farmers

:23:31. > :23:36.that their subsidies would be safe, even if the UK left the EU -

:23:37. > :23:40.not everyone was convinced. There's no authority, no power,

:23:41. > :23:47.he's just a person that's walked in here

:23:48. > :23:50.and said what he's got to say. You could say it, I could

:23:51. > :23:54.say it, I can promise. First of all,

:23:55. > :23:59.where are your wellies? Are you getting a bit

:24:00. > :24:03.of grief from the farmers? No, there's a lot of

:24:04. > :24:06.support, a lot of support, and a lot of people

:24:07. > :24:09.coming up to me and saying, "We are with you,

:24:10. > :24:12.we want to come out." Some people, obviously, need

:24:13. > :24:16.reassurance about the subsidies, He left - without offering me

:24:17. > :24:21.a lift, so I caught the train, to Birmingham,

:24:22. > :24:24.and the Labour in campaign. But this week Jeremy Corbyn

:24:25. > :24:31.made a big speech after it emerged many Labour supporters didn't know

:24:32. > :24:35.the party was in favour of the EU. Do you think that was

:24:36. > :24:37.a great speech from JC? Jeremy's journey, if you like,

:24:38. > :24:43.which mirrors the journeys that many have made on this,

:24:44. > :24:49.he was a Eurosceptic in '75, and I think he's more powerful

:24:50. > :24:55.for that. Our journey took us to a building

:24:56. > :24:58.site to see investment from abroad that the Remain campaign claim

:24:59. > :25:01.is linked to our EU membership. Of course, with foreign

:25:02. > :25:05.money comes foreigners. How are you going to vote?

:25:06. > :25:09.No, come out. Why's that? Because of all the immigrants

:25:10. > :25:13.and things like that. Too many of them now

:25:14. > :25:16.coming into this country. Well, inevitably,

:25:17. > :25:18.I've ended up in one of these This week, the Remain campaign

:25:19. > :25:22.got some high visibility backing from foreign leaders -

:25:23. > :25:25.in Spain, the Netherlands, the former Foreign Secretary

:25:26. > :25:32.David Miliband. Some people might say

:25:33. > :25:35.that you live in America now, you are one of these high-profile

:25:36. > :25:39.foreigners coming over and lecturing us on what to do,

:25:40. > :25:42.what do you say to that? I'm a British voter,

:25:43. > :25:45.and I'm able to speak with passion about my own country,

:25:46. > :25:47.this is my home country, and although it's not where I live

:25:48. > :25:50.and work at the moment, I still feel that there is

:25:51. > :25:52.a real obligation to speak not just to the economic issues

:25:53. > :25:55.and the security issues, but also the foreign-policy

:25:56. > :25:56.issues, frankly. to ride on Britain Stronger

:25:57. > :26:00.in Europe's luxury coach, or hop onto Nigel Farage's

:26:01. > :26:03.double-decker. You wait ages for a referendum

:26:04. > :26:06.battle bus to come along, So, you heard Alan Johnson there

:26:07. > :26:13.defending Jeremy Corbyn's latest intervention in the referendum

:26:14. > :26:15.campaign, despite critics claiming that Labour hasn't exactly been

:26:16. > :26:18.full-throated in its campaign Well, the former Deputy Prime

:26:19. > :26:24.Minister and veteran Labour campaigner John Prescott

:26:25. > :26:27.seems to agree. He says in his newspaper column

:26:28. > :26:29.today that his party's message

:26:30. > :26:43.hasn't been getting through. John Prescott, good morning to you.

:26:44. > :26:47.Good morning. You say in your column that the Conservatives have hijacked

:26:48. > :26:52.the campaign, why has Labour allowed that to happen? It is a good point,

:26:53. > :26:56.I suggested in the paper that it seems almost to have been the

:26:57. > :27:00.strategy, blue on blue destroying the Tory party, hopefully, we will

:27:01. > :27:04.have to wait and see! We saw that in the broadcasts this morning, but

:27:05. > :27:08.where is Labour? It seems as if we are just enjoying the fight between

:27:09. > :27:14.them, but that is not putting our position. Labour maybe in the

:27:15. > :27:19.European Union, I support being in it, but we're not putting the

:27:20. > :27:24.arguments, and so when you see on a bus there, for example, on Boris's

:27:25. > :27:28.bus, ?350 million a week to put into the health service, this is from a

:27:29. > :27:34.government that reduced from 9% of GDP the average in Europe to 7%, and

:27:35. > :27:41.when they go on with a Labour politician in this way, Gisela, the

:27:42. > :27:44.Tories get the publicity, and they are in the background. We are not

:27:45. > :27:48.putting down the record of the Tories, they cannot do it because

:27:49. > :27:52.they are in a joint agreement on a bus about Europe. Let me just get

:27:53. > :27:58.another question in, as a result of everything you say, are you worried

:27:59. > :28:04.that you are failing to galvanise the Labour vote, do get it out to

:28:05. > :28:08.vote for Remain on the 23rd? Absolutely! Labour people want to

:28:09. > :28:11.hear Labour people talking about this government's record, whether

:28:12. > :28:15.they are four in or out, they carried out a record that is

:28:16. > :28:24.basically destroying our health service, housing was halved in

:28:25. > :28:26.billions, and now they say they will bring it. Michael Gove says all

:28:27. > :28:30.these terrible bankers, why didn't the vote with Labour to stop the

:28:31. > :28:33.bonuses for them? He didn't, he doesn't, they are hypocritical, we

:28:34. > :28:37.must show that Labour has strong values, we believe in social

:28:38. > :28:45.justice. When you have heard Tories talking about being social justice?!

:28:46. > :28:50.Look Labour, at Labour. Maybe Labour voters are confused, when you look

:28:51. > :28:55.at Jeremy Corbyn's pro EU speech, he spent as much time attacking the

:28:56. > :29:00.Tories and EU policies. Good on Jeremy! By Sea said the bad things

:29:01. > :29:06.predicted by Vote Leave work addicted by those who say we should

:29:07. > :29:10.remain, that all the scare stories were just myth-making and prophecies

:29:11. > :29:15.of doom. Is it any surprise that Labour voters are confused? Yes, but

:29:16. > :29:20.I do not think we should talk too much about what we should do, Jeremy

:29:21. > :29:25.is not a passionate man, he does not scream and shout like me, does he?!

:29:26. > :29:29.But to that extent, our people want to see, and this is what has

:29:30. > :29:35.happened to politics, people speak and do believe what they are saying!

:29:36. > :29:39.On both sides, Cameron's side, Boris Johnson, they are saying things that

:29:40. > :29:45.they did not do in government, which Labour oppose, and they are against

:29:46. > :29:50.social justice. We want a Labour Europe, different to them, not, we

:29:51. > :29:54.all believe in Europe, let's travel on the same bus! No wonder people

:29:55. > :29:58.are confused, get a strong Labour voice, and glad Jeremy said what he

:29:59. > :30:03.said, but point out what these beggars did in government!

:30:04. > :30:13.What about the confusion, even Damian McBride caught on Twitter

:30:14. > :30:13.offering policy tips to the Brexit campaign.

:30:14. > :30:42.Labour voters seem to be confused. I don't say that the Europe they

:30:43. > :30:46.want is the one I want. I took part in the last referendum. Despite the

:30:47. > :30:53.Tories not giving us a referendum and taking us in 1975 into the

:30:54. > :30:57.common market. I do believe, I was against a political Europe. In fact,

:30:58. > :31:01.I turned down a job with Jim Callaghan to be commissioner. On

:31:02. > :31:05.that ground, I thought that is where they were heading.

:31:06. > :31:14.I can't say it has stopped. What we argued then was for a wider Europe

:31:15. > :31:16.so we didn't move along the federal Europe case. That is still an

:31:17. > :31:18.argument to be fought for, I feel strongly, Labour does. I'm not sure

:31:19. > :31:24.the Tories pursued it. Sadiq Khan, tested Jarrell, Harriet

:31:25. > :31:28.Harman, they have appeared with Tories, including the Prime

:31:29. > :31:36.Minister. You refused, but last night you were appearing on Russia

:31:37. > :31:39.Today, a Putin propaganda channel, with Ken Livingstone, he has been

:31:40. > :31:47.suspended from your party, have you thought this through?

:31:48. > :31:52.Of course. I don't go in joint party operations, I never have. I didn't

:31:53. > :31:56.when I fought the Labour in 1975. I am the same. I am not saying they

:31:57. > :32:01.can't or shouldn't. We are saying the Labour vote is crucial and there

:32:02. > :32:05.is confusion as to the Labour position.

:32:06. > :32:10.Standing alongside Tory politicians, the survey has recently shown most

:32:11. > :32:17.of the speeches that come out of that are Tory spokesmen. 48% Tory,

:32:18. > :32:28.8% Labour. Why are we confused? Like in Scotland, if you appear alongside

:32:29. > :32:30.them bring on Europe, you better start telling people what you

:32:31. > :32:32.disagree about. Jeremy is trying to do that. I

:32:33. > :32:35.wouldn't do it, it adds to the confusion. If you can't get the

:32:36. > :32:36.Labour vote out in big numbers, are you worried you could lose this

:32:37. > :32:42.referendum? Yes. I want every Labour person in

:32:43. > :32:47.to vote. I fought on the last one thinking we would win on the

:32:48. > :32:51.referendum, and we lost, mainly it was particularly women, they get

:32:52. > :32:57.concerned about the long-term, their children, security, I think that is

:32:58. > :33:06.what defeated as in 1975. Seriously, I think it will go the other way. We

:33:07. > :33:12.need to be talking about the big powers. It is not Britain on its

:33:13. > :33:16.own, it is global powers, America, India, China, who will decide the

:33:17. > :33:22.issue about crime, immigration, security. We will be a little island

:33:23. > :33:27.shouting out, don't you recognise we are a big power. But we will have no

:33:28. > :33:32.say in a global decision. Jeremy Corbyn has hinted he might

:33:33. > :33:36.bring Ed Miliband into the Shadow Cabinet. What about you, are you

:33:37. > :33:41.available? I have done my bit for the Labour

:33:42. > :33:46.Party, except shouting on the side as I do. That is his decision. I

:33:47. > :33:54.want to see a united party. One of the things is people are confused

:33:55. > :34:02.because of these changes. Where does Labour stand? Start talking about it

:34:03. > :34:05.and be clearer on immigration. We have been cowards, the whole

:34:06. > :34:13.political establishment has avoided the argument. That is a global

:34:14. > :34:18.solution. There will be more migration coming from African

:34:19. > :34:22.countries which have no water or food because of climate change. This

:34:23. > :34:26.is not a temporary problem but a global problem and needs a global

:34:27. > :34:30.solution and not a little country on the side shouting and staying out of

:34:31. > :34:32.it. Thank you.

:34:33. > :34:34.Now, even if plenty folks are still undecided,

:34:35. > :34:38.you might think most Mps will have made their mind up as to how they'll

:34:39. > :34:40.It's only two-and-a-half weeks to go, after all.

:34:41. > :34:43.But, according to our research, there at still 26 undecided Tory

:34:44. > :34:47.Well, we're going to reduce that number by one today,

:34:48. > :34:50.as the Conservative MP Johnny Mercer is here to reveal for the first time

:34:51. > :35:04.What is your decision? The first thing to say is, like a lot of

:35:05. > :35:08.people, being out on the doors of Plymouth, we are disappointed by the

:35:09. > :35:11.level of debate. Even today.

:35:12. > :35:18.What is your decision? It is important to get this across.

:35:19. > :35:20.But tell me, leave or remain? Two Government ministers saying the

:35:21. > :35:24.Government is not telling the truth about the economy which has upset

:35:25. > :35:31.people. In terms of this referendum, it is

:35:32. > :35:35.clear we should remain, not a single economic expert has come out and

:35:36. > :35:38.said this will do things for our economy, our jobs.

:35:39. > :35:42.If you look at what this garment has delivered in places like Plymouth

:35:43. > :35:47.around jobs, the single biggest factor in improving people's life

:35:48. > :35:51.chances, it has done good things. It is the economic case.

:35:52. > :35:56.And a security case. Why do the people of Plymouth seem not

:35:57. > :36:00.convinced quite a recent polls say they were largely for Leave.

:36:01. > :36:04.A poll I have been running has come out and said that.

:36:05. > :36:10.When this debate started, I said this was an issue, not the issue. It

:36:11. > :36:16.has become clear. I did not think we would vote to leave the EU. This is

:36:17. > :36:21.a vote of singular importance to this country. People have begun to

:36:22. > :36:24.forget we need to get on with Government on June 24.

:36:25. > :36:31.That may be the case. But do you think you can win on the economic

:36:32. > :36:34.arguments? With the economic arguments, there are single clear

:36:35. > :36:41.points. On the economy, the people who

:36:42. > :36:45.always feel the worst affected, it is always the most vulnerable.

:36:46. > :36:49.Always those who file like a desperate struggle. My area of

:36:50. > :36:55.Plymouth is still categorised by the EU as a deprived area in parts. They

:36:56. > :36:59.cannot take that shock. It is OK for others to say we can go to this

:37:00. > :37:04.nirvana. The truth is the same people are affected.

:37:05. > :37:07.Why do 74% in your constituency say...

:37:08. > :37:13.That is a very small poll. But it is indicative of the mood,

:37:14. > :37:16.74%. People will feel more passionate

:37:17. > :37:19.about leaving because for some people this is a single issue. They

:37:20. > :37:24.have been looking for a reason to come out and leave the EU. I think

:37:25. > :37:30.the vast majority do not want to leave. You are looking at where we

:37:31. > :37:35.are now it is not perfect. We are on this trajectory. Do we throw it away

:37:36. > :37:41.for a nirvana no one can quite lay their hands on. Could the most

:37:42. > :37:45.vulnerable in the UK who rely on a job, on the NHS, public service

:37:46. > :37:50.funding, could they withstand that shock? I can look them in the eye

:37:51. > :37:54.and say, I went this based on something that sounded like a great

:37:55. > :37:58.idea but I could not go for it. It has loads of problems.

:37:59. > :38:02.Why take so long? Thinking about Europe is not something I got into

:38:03. > :38:08.politics today about. I have spoken to a lot of people. It

:38:09. > :38:13.would be naive to suggest there are reasons why people want to leave. On

:38:14. > :38:18.balance, it is a clear case. Society is judged by how it looks after its

:38:19. > :38:24.vulnerable. We have to remain part of the EU to continue to do that. It

:38:25. > :38:26.isn't perfect. Thank you for coming on and telling

:38:27. > :38:28.us how you will vote on June 23. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:29. > :38:33.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:38:34. > :38:37.the Week Ahead, when we'll be talking about the referendum

:38:38. > :38:39.and the TV debates with the veteran Conservative backbencher David

:38:40. > :38:40.Davis. First, though, the Sunday

:38:41. > :38:48.Politics where you are. Hello and welcome to the Sunday

:38:49. > :38:50.Politics Wales. This week we've got

:38:51. > :38:52.a special edition the closest thing the

:38:53. > :38:56.European Union has to a home - and we're going to be looking

:38:57. > :38:59.at what the vote on June the 23rd will mean to the money in your

:39:00. > :39:02.pocket, to services in Wales, All of which, we hope, will help you

:39:03. > :39:07.to decide whether or not the UK and Wales should remain

:39:08. > :39:12.or leave the European Union. MUSIC: Ode To Joy

:39:13. > :39:21.by Beethoven The European Parliament,

:39:22. > :39:24.a huge rabbit warren of a building, full of deals being struck

:39:25. > :39:28.and promises made - It's one of the main institutions

:39:29. > :39:31.of the EU, alongside the Commission,

:39:32. > :39:34.the Council, In the Parliament,

:39:35. > :39:41.they vote in seconds, sometimes hundreds of times

:39:42. > :39:44.in each session, MEPs have power over all

:39:45. > :39:48.sorts of issues, from human rights

:39:49. > :39:50.to the environment, Tara Palmeri knows all the ins

:39:51. > :39:57.and outs of how the EU works. As a journalist for a specialist

:39:58. > :40:00.political magazine in Brussels, she says EU leaders resent there's

:40:01. > :40:04.a referendum in the UK at all. There's a lot of frustration

:40:05. > :40:06.in general, just because of the fact that, oh,

:40:07. > :40:10.we had to go through this huge UK settlement,

:40:11. > :40:12.we're trying to beg them to stay, in the UK press, they don't

:40:13. > :40:18.realise how much we help them. This is the chitter-chatter

:40:19. > :40:20.I hear all the time. And then there's also talk of,

:40:21. > :40:22."Well, if they leave, "we're going to make it

:40:23. > :40:24.hard for them, "and to teach the other

:40:25. > :40:28.member states a lesson So, yeah, of course there's

:40:29. > :40:33.resentment, it's politics, But what would happen to the EU

:40:34. > :40:39.project if the UK left? Some say it could speed up

:40:40. > :40:41.closer integration between those countries

:40:42. > :40:43.who are left, as a dissenting British voice

:40:44. > :40:46.would have gone - shared by people like this

:40:47. > :40:51.MEP from Sweden, Peter Lundgren. so is excited by what's

:40:52. > :40:56.happening in the UK right now. Quite recently we had a poll

:40:57. > :40:59.that showed that we are still having a majority

:41:00. > :41:03.for staying in the European Union, that then the Eurosceptical ones

:41:04. > :41:13.in Sweden would increase - but...if it was 10, 12%, and would

:41:14. > :41:18.actually have a majority by then. So I often say to my voters

:41:19. > :41:20.home in Sweden, they don't believe it's

:41:21. > :41:24.possible to leave this place, Back in Wales, I meet the UK's man

:41:25. > :41:30.in Brussels. Lord Jonathan Hill is

:41:31. > :41:34.one of the 28 commissioners charged with coming up

:41:35. > :41:37.with new EU policies. He thinks that Wales and Britain

:41:38. > :41:41.get a better deal out of the EU underestimate the influence that the

:41:42. > :41:50.UK has in the EU with its voice. I think if you look at the agenda

:41:51. > :41:54.that's being pursued in the EU, in terms of the single market,

:41:55. > :41:58.free trade, better regulation, those are all agendas that the Brits

:41:59. > :42:01.have argued for, for as long as you and I

:42:02. > :42:04.can remember. And that is now

:42:05. > :42:05.the mainstream agenda. Aren't you underestimating

:42:06. > :42:09.the influence the UK has globally in its ability to talk with America,

:42:10. > :42:12.with China, with India, Isn't it you that's underestimating

:42:13. > :42:16.what the UK can achieve? No. As I've said, I think

:42:17. > :42:19.that being in the EU gives us clout

:42:20. > :42:22.in these negotiations. There are a whole load of other

:42:23. > :42:25.business relationships Back in Brussels,

:42:26. > :42:29.things are livening up. Well, it's just gone past 11:20 here

:42:30. > :42:32.in the European Parliament. A bell has just gone off to tell

:42:33. > :42:35.the 751 MEPs so they're all streaming

:42:36. > :42:38.down this corridor into the main chamber session

:42:39. > :42:41.just behind me there, some European legislation

:42:42. > :42:45.is going to be passed. I caught up with two of Wales' MEPs

:42:46. > :42:51.to discuss the referendum. Looking at the issue of the economy

:42:52. > :42:54.in Wales specifically, regional aid, you'll have

:42:55. > :42:57.read recently that says, in Wales,

:42:58. > :43:03.a net beneficiary of EU funds. What did you make of that report

:43:04. > :43:05.when you saw it? Well, are we saying

:43:06. > :43:08.that our democracy and our freedom is worth ?1.50 per

:43:09. > :43:12.person, per week? Because that's basically

:43:13. > :43:15.what that research is telling us. Because that's quite a cheap price,

:43:16. > :43:17.I think, for selling our ability...

:43:18. > :43:22.It's ?80 million a year overall. There's been an awful lot of talk

:43:23. > :43:27.about how worthwhile it is and what this research shows is

:43:28. > :43:32.that in Wales, just on the economy, just on regional funding

:43:33. > :43:34.coming to Wales, actually, there's

:43:35. > :43:37.an economic benefit there. The reality is, it's our money

:43:38. > :43:42.coming back to us. An awful lot of it.

:43:43. > :43:43.More of it coming back. There's no such thing as EU money,

:43:44. > :43:46.and the rest of the United Kingdom is paying ?3 a week

:43:47. > :43:50.so that in Wales we benefit ?1.50. Great, brilliant,

:43:51. > :43:52.we're benefiting in Wales, let's stay in the European Union,

:43:53. > :43:55.surely? Absolutely not, because ?10.1 billion a year net

:43:56. > :43:59.is what we're paying to the EU. We could use that much better

:44:00. > :44:01.ourselves without the EU actually telling us

:44:02. > :44:04.how to spend that money, where to spend it,

:44:05. > :44:05.and flying the EU flag to say, thank you very much.

:44:06. > :44:08.That's a fair point, Kay Swinburne - OK, more of it comes back,

:44:09. > :44:12.but at the end of the day, it's that point of there's no such

:44:13. > :44:14.thing as European money - Wales or elsewhere. I think we have

:44:15. > :44:17.to come back to the economy, and where we started on this,

:44:18. > :44:20.that actually the economic impact and therefore it is my absolute

:44:21. > :44:26.belief that if we leave the EU, there will be such a significant

:44:27. > :44:28.impact on our economy overall, as the United Kingdom,

:44:29. > :44:30.not just in Wales, but across the whole

:44:31. > :44:32.of the United Kingdom. and therefore we will lose that cost

:44:33. > :44:38.of the EU very quickly in our lack of productivity

:44:39. > :44:41.as a result of leaving. So if you're taking

:44:42. > :44:43.two, three, four, five - and worse scenarios beyond that -

:44:44. > :44:47.hit on your GDP as a percentage, then actually the cost of the EU

:44:48. > :44:51.is less than 1% of our GDP. So there's a real significant

:44:52. > :44:53.mismatch here for the opportunity we are

:44:54. > :44:57.giving people as part of the EU. And the risk of us coming out,

:44:58. > :45:00.and the impact, there will be no spare money

:45:01. > :45:02.for Wales, Is there a concern maybe

:45:03. > :45:07.that the whole debate about the EU referendum,

:45:08. > :45:09.in Wales specifically, has centred around this

:45:10. > :45:12.issue of regional funding, and that's been too much

:45:13. > :45:14.of a focus of the debate, rather than, as you're talking about

:45:15. > :45:18.there, the wider economic benefits? I talked to all the companies

:45:19. > :45:21.around Wales right now and I've certainly prioritised

:45:22. > :45:24.going to visit as many of them as possible to find out what they

:45:25. > :45:28.see the value of the EU as being, and we've had those

:45:29. > :45:31.long discussions. that this is a hugely beneficial

:45:32. > :45:37.union for them to be part of. Access to those 500 million

:45:38. > :45:40.people in terms of consumers and actually, many of those

:45:41. > :45:45.are foreign companies who are invested in the UK

:45:46. > :45:49.and invested in Wales, specifically, So there is no certainty,

:45:50. > :45:53.in the longer term, whether or not that investment would

:45:54. > :45:57.continue if we were to leave the EU. All these risks are really,

:45:58. > :46:00.really big, and, actually, for what? That is all we are hearing,

:46:01. > :46:04.is fear, fear, fear. when Switzerland and Norway

:46:05. > :46:09.had their referendum... Aren't they

:46:10. > :46:11.well-placed fears? No, not at all. Doesn't it

:46:12. > :46:13.highlight what the issues would be? We don't know

:46:14. > :46:15.what's going to happen. Norway and Switzerland were told

:46:16. > :46:17.the exact same thing. Fear, doom and gloom,

:46:18. > :46:20.we're going to lose jobs, we're going to lose money, and look

:46:21. > :46:24.how they are booming as nations within Europe but outside of the EU.

:46:25. > :46:28.Why would we be any different? And are you seriously saying

:46:29. > :46:31.that the Germans are going to stop selling us their BMWs and Mercedes?

:46:32. > :46:34.Of course they're not. But there are issues here

:46:35. > :46:37.about trade deals, which would take years and years to

:46:38. > :46:40.complete, and the uncertainty there. And it's a huge leap in the dark.

:46:41. > :46:42.This is ridiculous. No, a leap in

:46:43. > :46:45.the dark is an absolute misnomer. It's disgraceful to say that, as the

:46:46. > :46:49.fifth largest economy in the world, we cannot set up our own

:46:50. > :46:52.unilateral trade deals with whoever we want

:46:53. > :46:55.for the benefit our nation. We just need to look at Iceland.

:46:56. > :46:58.They set up a trade deal with China. That's an absurd comparison.

:46:59. > :47:00.300,000 people... Why is it absurd? A tiny country in the middle

:47:01. > :47:03.of the North Atlantic, compared to, as you've just said there, the fifth

:47:04. > :47:06.largest economy... There we go. As you've said, if a tiny country

:47:07. > :47:09.can set up a trade deal with China, the fifth biggest trading company

:47:10. > :47:13.in the world? But there are trade deals

:47:14. > :47:15.and trade deals. I would not want the Icelandic deal

:47:16. > :47:17.for the United Kingdom - with China - because it is not

:47:18. > :47:19.a good deal. So, why... Can I bring this back to

:47:20. > :47:23.something very specific here? In terms of Wales. If we were

:47:24. > :47:26.to come out of the EU tomorrow, our Welsh farmers wouldn't get

:47:27. > :47:29.the CAP payments they get right now. Yes, they would.

:47:30. > :47:32.No, they wouldn't. Yes, they would. Because the economy would be

:47:33. > :47:35.in difficulty. Absolute rubbish. Since when were you in government,

:47:36. > :47:38.Nathan? 10.5... Can I finish what I was saying?

:47:39. > :47:40.10.5... We'll finish that point,

:47:41. > :47:43.then come back to you. That actually the direct

:47:44. > :47:46.payments are really important particularly West Wales,

:47:47. > :47:50.where I come from. But the other side of that is,

:47:51. > :47:55.Welsh lamb is my biggest export. Over 50% of lamb,

:47:56. > :47:59.Welsh lamb, goes to the EU. a 60% tariff would be the standard

:48:00. > :48:04.tariff on most lamb. Where's our market gone?

:48:05. > :48:08.Our lamb is 60% more expensive for the French, the Belgians to buy.

:48:09. > :48:10.It's not going to happen. So we're going to bring

:48:11. > :48:13.tariffs on the French selling us their cheese

:48:14. > :48:16.and champagne? Of course we're not. But they're luxury items,

:48:17. > :48:18.with all fairness. And it's really important.

:48:19. > :48:21.Lamb is a luxury item to a lot of people, as well.

:48:22. > :48:24.I don't know about your household, but I only have it usually once a

:48:25. > :48:27.month because it's fairly expensive. Now, with regards to trade deals

:48:28. > :48:30.and all these kinds of things, and you've said,

:48:31. > :48:35.if we leave tomorrow, the farmers will not get the CAP.

:48:36. > :48:38.What a load of rubbish. Are you telling me that the

:48:39. > :48:42.government in Westminster wouldn't be able to find

:48:43. > :48:44.a piffling ?220 million... David Cameron said there'd

:48:45. > :48:46.be no guarantee. That's because he's

:48:47. > :48:49.in the middle of scaremongering, trying to make people vote to stay

:48:50. > :48:53.in. The reality is, ?10.1 billion... You've said that already.

:48:54. > :48:55...is the net benefit of us leaving. Let's move on.

:48:56. > :48:58.We will find ?220 million. This is a trade deal

:48:59. > :49:02.with America, essentially, and there's been an awful

:49:03. > :49:05.lot of talk from Ukip members, it could mean the end,

:49:06. > :49:08.the privatisation, of the NHS. That's scaremongering

:49:09. > :49:09.of the worst kind, when you know that the European

:49:10. > :49:12.Parliament has a majority of members who would not allow that to happen.

:49:13. > :49:15.No, absolutely not. The majority of members here will

:49:16. > :49:19.vote for TTIP to go through. But with a provision it would not

:49:20. > :49:22.include social services, Let's hope that has that in it,

:49:23. > :49:27.but we cannot guarantee it. How many nations in Europe

:49:28. > :49:30.have an NHS, Four, five, six,

:49:31. > :49:34.seven other countries. ..from opening up

:49:35. > :49:37.to the private sector. Well... Are we going to allow 27 other

:49:38. > :49:40.nations to decide Or are we going to ourselves

:49:41. > :49:45.set up our own free trade deals with America for the benefit solely

:49:46. > :49:48.of Britain and the British people? And that's the reality.

:49:49. > :49:52.That's a good point. If it wasn't... If we weren't in the EU,

:49:53. > :49:54.we could set up that trade deal with America and make sure

:49:55. > :49:56.the NHS is safe. and I've spent a lot of time

:49:57. > :50:00.with my US counterparts - the real issue is that as a block

:50:01. > :50:03.of 500 million plus people, we have huge waits in those

:50:04. > :50:05.negotiations, which means that we

:50:06. > :50:08.can exclude our public sector And therefore there will be no

:50:09. > :50:13.risk to the NHS or any other health care system.

:50:14. > :50:16.You cannot guarantee that. But that is the deal,

:50:17. > :50:18.and I will not vote - nor will anybody

:50:19. > :50:19.in this house vote - for anything that doesn't put

:50:20. > :50:22.that level of protection in. as a population of just over

:50:23. > :50:26.60 million people, we will not have the ability

:50:27. > :50:29.to actually negotiate that type of caveat

:50:30. > :50:32.within a trade deal. So, 60 million people

:50:33. > :50:35.versus three... Didn't Obama himself say we'd be

:50:36. > :50:38.at the back of the queue? The queue, yes. How many Americans

:50:39. > :50:41.use the word "queue"? They don't even know what it means.

:50:42. > :50:43.It's "the back of the line". That was something that the

:50:44. > :50:47.Prime Minister asked him to say, more scaremongering.

:50:48. > :50:49.And that's all it is. This is the leader

:50:50. > :50:52.of the free world. Who's been asked to do it

:50:53. > :50:54.as a favour. The Prime Minister asked him

:50:55. > :50:56.to do us a favour. Let's scare the British people

:50:57. > :50:59.into voting to stay in something we actually don't want to

:51:00. > :51:01.be a part of. But ultimately, it's not about

:51:02. > :51:04.the ?55 million a day, it's not about not being able

:51:05. > :51:06.to control our borders. It's about - do we believe

:51:07. > :51:09.that the British people are good enough to make

:51:10. > :51:13.all of our own laws in Westminster, or do we need bureaucrats,

:51:14. > :51:16.unelected, here in this building, I'll say first, Barack Obama

:51:17. > :51:20.isn't here to defend himself, but I'm sure he'd dispute that fact.

:51:21. > :51:23.But there is a point there. Making your own

:51:24. > :51:26.laws for your own country, But we actually do make

:51:27. > :51:28.our own laws. We are actually

:51:29. > :51:31.part of the legislation here. I certainly take

:51:32. > :51:34.part in co-decision processes. I genuinely have an

:51:35. > :51:37.impact on law here. not only do the elected members

:51:38. > :51:41.of the house here have a say, they're the government ministers

:51:42. > :51:47.of each country. If they don't want a rule or a law,

:51:48. > :51:50.it doesn't happen, it's a case of actually

:51:51. > :51:53.finding those rules that work. So when the British government...

:51:54. > :51:56...you need one set of rules, and on 95% of those rules

:51:57. > :52:00.over the last seven years, It is a tiny number that we have not

:52:01. > :52:06.actually wanted in their entirety. And we opposed them, and the rest

:52:07. > :52:09.of Europe said "tough luck", and we've had to impose them.

:52:10. > :52:13.But on almost every important... 79 laws that our government said

:52:14. > :52:15.was not beneficial or good for the British people,

:52:16. > :52:19.and the rest of Europe said, "Well, "tough luck, you've got to

:52:20. > :52:21.have them." This vote is about who rules

:52:22. > :52:25.and governs Britain. Is it us, the British people,

:52:26. > :52:30.or is it this place? My issue is, what is sovereignty?

:52:31. > :52:32.Ultimately... I mean, I'm Welsh,

:52:33. > :52:35.so is my sovereignty the same Is it the same as somebody

:52:36. > :52:39.in Scotland? I suspect not. So sovereignty is a strange word

:52:40. > :52:42.to be using in the first place, in the context

:52:43. > :52:44.of the United Kingdom. But leaving that aside,

:52:45. > :52:46.we give up our sovereignty when we actually

:52:47. > :52:48.participate in NATO missions. Where our soldiers

:52:49. > :52:50.are sent to fight. We are actually giving

:52:51. > :52:52.up our sovereignty in that. The World Trade Organisation

:52:53. > :52:56.is a trade organisation We give up sovereignty,

:52:57. > :53:01.as does any member of the WTO. Therefore, our sovereignty

:53:02. > :53:03.is always shared. there is no such thing as a

:53:04. > :53:07.sovereign nation. I would love for this to continue

:53:08. > :53:09.for longer, but we have run out of time.

:53:10. > :53:12.Nathan Gill, Kay Swinburne, thank you much for your time.

:53:13. > :53:14.You're welcome. With the fate of the Welsh steel

:53:15. > :53:17.industry still uncertain, the head of the body which

:53:18. > :53:19.represents steelmakers has told this programme

:53:20. > :53:22.the industry won't survive if China is allowed unfettered

:53:23. > :53:26.access to European markets. The steel crisis continues

:53:27. > :53:33.to cast a long shadow. and both sides of the campaign have

:53:34. > :53:40.a different take on Brussels' role. The city saw Welsh steelworkers

:53:41. > :53:44.protesting in harmony with their European colleagues

:53:45. > :53:47.back in February, demanding EU action

:53:48. > :53:50.to save their industry. Under threat, as they see it,

:53:51. > :53:54.from Chinese steel, which is accused of being

:53:55. > :53:57.dumped on the European market. In other words,

:53:58. > :54:01.sold below the cost of production. In response,

:54:02. > :54:03.the EU has imposed taxes 'The devastating effects

:54:04. > :54:08.of Chinese dumping 'are why the European steel industry

:54:09. > :54:12.is calling for China 'to be denied market

:54:13. > :54:14.economy status.' As it stands, China is

:54:15. > :54:18.regarded as a nonmarket economy because its government is seen

:54:19. > :54:21.to interfere in the market. If, in due course, China is granted

:54:22. > :54:26.market economy status by the EU, the country's exports

:54:27. > :54:29.would face lower tariffs. So, do you believe that if China

:54:30. > :54:35.is granted market economy status, it would make the

:54:36. > :54:38.steel crisis worse? The dimension of the Chinese

:54:39. > :54:43.steel industry, excess steel capacity

:54:44. > :54:50.is such that... the non-survival of the

:54:51. > :54:54.European steel industry. While Tata Steel is in the process

:54:55. > :54:57.of looking for a buyer Italy's Ilva group is also looking

:54:58. > :55:03.to off-load its Taranto site It is the biggest in Europe,

:55:04. > :55:10.employing some 14,000 people. Some of Italy's MEPs are also

:55:11. > :55:17.worried about what will happen next. TRANSLATION: We need to put policies

:55:18. > :55:20.in place to challenge China and avoid destroying

:55:21. > :55:22.our own industry. There needs to be space for everyone

:55:23. > :55:25.in the global market, but we also need to be able

:55:26. > :55:30.to defend our home interest. it's reason enough for the UK

:55:31. > :55:35.to get out of the EU. I think it's a very,

:55:36. > :55:37.very serious concern, but it also shows that the

:55:38. > :55:40.European Commission, which has been investigating

:55:41. > :55:44.Chinese steel dumping for the last ten years

:55:45. > :55:47.without taking any action, is clearly not acting

:55:48. > :55:50.in our best interests. But back in Port Talbot,

:55:51. > :55:54.Welsh Labour's MEP, a Remain campaigner,

:55:55. > :55:57.says the European Parliament is opposed to giving China

:55:58. > :56:00.the special trade status. Well, I think we've got

:56:01. > :56:02.a much better chance of protecting the steel industry

:56:03. > :56:05.at a EU level So, for example, currently, the

:56:06. > :56:11.European Parliament's position is, we would not accept

:56:12. > :56:14.market economy status for China, which says China will get

:56:15. > :56:18.it automatically But also, there many people,

:56:19. > :56:23.including myself, who think China have not met

:56:24. > :56:26.the five criteria they need to meet before getting

:56:27. > :56:28.that economy status. And therefore they won't get

:56:29. > :56:31.granted market economy status two big questions soon to be

:56:32. > :56:40.answered that will shape Wales' future

:56:41. > :56:43.for years to come. Europol is the EU's law

:56:44. > :56:46.enforcement agency and coordinates the sharing

:56:47. > :56:50.of EU countries' intelligence It's Carmarthenshire-born

:56:51. > :56:53.director told me why he thinks the UK is safer

:56:54. > :56:57.staying in the EU. We're looking at the issue

:56:58. > :57:00.of whether or not Wales, whether the UK, should remain

:57:01. > :57:03.part of the European Union. From a security point of view,

:57:04. > :57:06.policing point of view, were the UK to leave

:57:07. > :57:10.the European Union? Well, in the last ten years,

:57:11. > :57:12.especially, the UK has become more

:57:13. > :57:14.and more dependent to share intelligence and to

:57:15. > :57:20.coordinate joint operations against organised crime

:57:21. > :57:23.and terrorism right across Europe, so I think we would be

:57:24. > :57:26.losing potential access to something from the way in which the UK

:57:27. > :57:31.protects itself from these threats. But what would really change

:57:32. > :57:34.were the UK to leave, in terms of sharing

:57:35. > :57:36.that information, sharing that intelligence?

:57:37. > :57:38.Because, presumably, just whether or not the UK's

:57:39. > :57:43.part of the European Union. It does, and the UK has really

:57:44. > :57:45.important relationships with the Americans,

:57:46. > :57:48.and also intelligence community, but there are some unique parts

:57:49. > :57:52.of the way the EU does the business. You know, sharing information

:57:53. > :57:55.through Europol, for example, which is an EU law enforcement

:57:56. > :57:58.agency that I run - and I give you a very

:57:59. > :58:01.current example, on child sexual exploitation,

:58:02. > :58:04.we've had some great success responsible for that

:58:05. > :58:07.operating online. that Europol has coordinated across

:58:08. > :58:13.Europe that have involved the UK. Police forces running

:58:14. > :58:17.important operations, and we can connect, for them,

:58:18. > :58:23.intelligence across Europe. But would that information

:58:24. > :58:26.really stop at Dover, at the border with the UK just

:58:27. > :58:29.because the UK would leave the EU? I mean, that just

:58:30. > :58:31.doesn't seem credible. It does depend, then, on how the UK

:58:32. > :58:35.would negotiate this withdrawal, and I'm sure Britain, because it's

:58:36. > :58:38.such an important security partner in the world, would negotiate access

:58:39. > :58:42.to some of these systems. But I can tell you in

:58:43. > :58:43.the case of Europol, it would become a

:58:44. > :58:45.second-tier member, like Norway and Iceland

:58:46. > :58:47.is at the moment. It wouldn't have direct access

:58:48. > :58:49.to our database. There are other very important

:58:50. > :58:51.systems in Europe for a country, which UK

:58:52. > :58:56.would find itself being in, about whether you can continue

:58:57. > :59:03.to have these systems with the most highly

:59:04. > :59:09.sought-after intelligence, the relationships across the globe

:59:10. > :59:12.in terms of intelligence, wouldn't be a second order

:59:13. > :59:15.country in terms of Europol, with MI5 and all the security

:59:16. > :59:20.services that go with it. Surely you wouldn't demote the UK

:59:21. > :59:23.to a second-class country? Well, the United States are

:59:24. > :59:27.currently a very important member of Europol as well,

:59:28. > :59:30.but they're in a second-tier in terms of what access

:59:31. > :59:33.they've been granted. So what I'm saying is, there are

:59:34. > :59:37.legal and political things if you were to continue to negotiate

:59:38. > :59:42.your access to these systems. And I'm not saying the sky is going

:59:43. > :59:44.to fall in - I think the UK will get a pretty

:59:45. > :59:46.good deal - and my point is,

:59:47. > :59:49.it definitely won't be as good as it is now, and that therefore

:59:50. > :59:52.has potential consequences You mentioned earlier that

:59:53. > :59:56.point about the UK becoming in terms of security and

:59:57. > :00:00.in terms of intelligence. What would that entail, then? What

:00:01. > :00:04.would be the consequences of that? When I was growing up

:00:05. > :00:07.in Carmarthenshire we didn't really have a problem

:00:08. > :00:11.with international drug traffickers We didn't have child sexual

:00:12. > :00:16.exploiters working on the internet. That has changed.

:00:17. > :00:18.I think you have to see security in terms of how

:00:19. > :00:20.they affect their communities, In terms of it being now a global

:00:21. > :00:27.dimension requiring, therefore, the closest possible international

:00:28. > :00:31.partnerships for our police forces. And that moment the EU, through

:00:32. > :00:35.Europol and other mechanisms, gives that capability

:00:36. > :00:38.to police forces in Wales and around the UK,

:00:39. > :00:40.and what I'm saying is, the UK will still be

:00:41. > :00:43.a strong partner, will still be able to

:00:44. > :00:45.protect itself, it just won't be as effective,

:00:46. > :00:48.that's the point. And I think, therefore...

:00:49. > :00:50.My view, therefore, why you'd want to vote out

:00:51. > :00:54.on June 23, I really don't think

:00:55. > :00:56.security should be one of them. Lastly, just as a young man born

:00:57. > :00:59.and raised in Pontyberem, maybe some of our viewers

:01:00. > :01:01.will be thinking, "How do you end up

:01:02. > :01:03.being the head of Europol?" It is, but there are many

:01:04. > :01:07.people from Wales that have gone on to do

:01:08. > :01:09.different things in life, and I just got a few lucky

:01:10. > :01:11.breaks along the way. I went to London as a student

:01:12. > :01:14.and then found myself doing... I never forget

:01:15. > :01:16.my Welsh roots, though. My mammy is still living there,

:01:17. > :01:18.and my family as well, so I'm a regular visitor

:01:19. > :01:22.back to Gwendraeth Valley. Robin Wainwright, thank you very

:01:23. > :01:25.much for your time. Thank you. Hopefully we've helped you

:01:26. > :01:29.a little bit to decide how you'll cast your vote

:01:30. > :01:32.on June 23 - and if not, well, you've still

:01:33. > :01:35.got a little bit of time but whether or not the UK leaves

:01:36. > :01:42.or remains in the European Union is very much down to you.

:01:43. > :02:07.See you next time. David Davis will talk to is about

:02:08. > :02:12.the snoopers' charter, but that interview with John Major on the

:02:13. > :02:16.Andrew Marr Show, earlier we showed you in talking about the deceit of

:02:17. > :02:21.the Leave campaign, this is in talking about Boris Johnson's

:02:22. > :02:24.prospect of leading the party. If they continued to divide the

:02:25. > :02:29.Conservative Party, as they are doing at the present time, and if

:02:30. > :02:33.Boris has the laudable ambition, because it is laudable to become

:02:34. > :02:37.Prime Minister, he will find, if he achieves that, that he will not have

:02:38. > :02:42.the loyalty of the party he divided. Iain Duncan Smith was serially

:02:43. > :02:46.disloyal in the 1990s. When he became leader, he was surprised that

:02:47. > :02:51.no-one was loyal to him. Boris should learn from that.

:02:52. > :02:58.What was the purpose of his interview this morning?

:02:59. > :03:02.I guess number ten asked him to do it, and being a loyal supporter of a

:03:03. > :03:08.Tory party, he would do that. I guess he was trying to reduce the

:03:09. > :03:13.credibility of the Leave campaign's claim. Some irony when you consider

:03:14. > :03:17.the most incredible claim has been from George Osborne, the Treasury,

:03:18. > :03:22.in terms of his forecasts, and even what John Major said, I was his last

:03:23. > :03:29.defender in the Commons, the numbers bandying around.

:03:30. > :03:35.He said for example this controversial ?350 million was one

:03:36. > :03:41.third of that. That is half the net contribution. He said industries

:03:42. > :03:46.would face 10% levies. The car industry would, but most of

:03:47. > :03:49.the others would be up to 5%. He was not being very

:03:50. > :03:53.straightforward with the numbers. Were you surprised how personal the

:03:54. > :03:57.attacks on Boris well. We know he has long hated Iain

:03:58. > :04:05.Duncan Smith. Understandable. But saying in the

:04:06. > :04:10.hands of Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, IDS, the NHS would be like

:04:11. > :04:18.a hamster in a room with a pattern. He was trashing the Tory brand.

:04:19. > :04:22.A harsh attack. I don't think it was very wise.

:04:23. > :04:24.One of the problems both sides of this campaign have had is it is too

:04:25. > :04:31.personalised. The public don't like it. After the

:04:32. > :04:34.23rd, we had to pull the party together.

:04:35. > :04:38.With that sort of attack, it is a bad idea.

:04:39. > :04:43.Sam. Let me put it this way. Whatever the result, things for the

:04:44. > :04:48.Tories will never be the same again for the rest of this Parliament.

:04:49. > :04:53.It will be very hard. Clearly with a working majority of about 18, hard

:04:54. > :04:59.to get contentious the station through, the biggest area of danger

:05:00. > :05:04.for David Cameron. He will be a zombie Prime Minister, he can't get

:05:05. > :05:07.it through the Commons, and the Lords is a different matter where

:05:08. > :05:12.legislation will get stuck. You saw the kinds of things in the

:05:13. > :05:17.Queen's Speech. With the exception of the data Bill, I can't see any of

:05:18. > :05:22.the bills will be that radical when they get passed into law. So I think

:05:23. > :05:25.there will be a successful coup after June the 23rd, that seems

:05:26. > :05:32.unlikely. Even if it is a vote to Leave.

:05:33. > :05:38.That could change things. I think David Cameron would go within his

:05:39. > :05:42.own time. In the case of a remain vote, there are up to 20 MPs who

:05:43. > :05:48.bitterly disliked David Cameron. I don't think that number has

:05:49. > :05:52.dramatically increased solely as a result of the referendum campaign.

:05:53. > :05:55.There is a safety valve, the leadership election which will

:05:56. > :06:01.happen possibly sooner than you think.

:06:02. > :06:06.There may not be an immediate coup even if the vote is to Remain.

:06:07. > :06:12.The keyword or words, zombie parliaments, there are anything

:06:13. > :06:14.between 20-50 MPs deeply disillusioned with the Prime

:06:15. > :06:19.Minister. They have a taste for revolt. The

:06:20. > :06:25.Government majority is derisory. This Government could now find it

:06:26. > :06:29.very difficult to get anything major through this potential zombie

:06:30. > :06:33.parliament. That is absolutely true. On the

:06:34. > :06:38.matter of a coup, there are a number of mischief makers within the Tory

:06:39. > :06:41.ranks who don't mind if a coup succeeds or fails, they feel the

:06:42. > :06:48.Labour opposition is so weak, they have the luxury of doing this.

:06:49. > :06:53.I think the numbers are lower than you think. I would say 20, not more

:06:54. > :06:56.than that. That is enough, given the Government

:06:57. > :07:00.majority. These are the ones that hate the

:07:01. > :07:06.regime as it were. You have another group. The problem

:07:07. > :07:09.is not if there is a Brexit victory, but if there is a very narrow Remain

:07:10. > :07:16.victory. A lot of those wanting Brexit will

:07:17. > :07:20.feel they have been cheated. The ?9 million spent on the

:07:21. > :07:25.leaflets, all of that, they will be difficult to manage.

:07:26. > :07:30.This is a Government that has found it hard to get its budget through.

:07:31. > :07:35.Almost unprecedented, it lost most of the major parts of the budget

:07:36. > :07:42.unveiled in March. Would it not be even more difficult if it is a vote

:07:43. > :07:45.to Remain, but small, to get its business through except the

:07:46. > :07:51.noncontroversial. To say it is difficult for the

:07:52. > :07:57.future is a description of the past ten months, they had two H a great

:07:58. > :08:03.answer their planned pensions reform amongst other things.

:08:04. > :08:08.The potential American trade deal. Most recently, and prior to the

:08:09. > :08:11.referendum. Things will become difficult

:08:12. > :08:16.afterwards. David Cameron will end up leading my kind of Government, it

:08:17. > :08:25.won't do very much. The basic strategic stuff. What the founders

:08:26. > :08:30.in America intended. The one bit of optimism for the Tories, it picks up

:08:31. > :08:34.on David's point, I wouldn't underestimate how many Tory MPs want

:08:35. > :08:36.is referendum done with, that includes absolutely committed

:08:37. > :08:42.leaders who don't think much of David Cameron.

:08:43. > :08:45.Interviewing Johnny Mercer, he wants it over, you can tell from his

:08:46. > :08:52.demeanour. And he wouldn't look at me but there

:08:53. > :08:56.may be another reason! We don't need to go that!

:08:57. > :08:59.Let me ask you. Given the kind of Government our panel are talking

:09:00. > :09:03.about, it is already difficult for the Government to get things done.

:09:04. > :09:07.Even more difficult after the referendum I would suggest if it is

:09:08. > :09:11.Remain by a small majority. Does that give you hope for your

:09:12. > :09:18.continued opposition to the investigatory Powers act for the

:09:19. > :09:24.police and intelligence services? Taking up on the American view, look

:09:25. > :09:31.what happened with tax credits. There were about 40 people opposing

:09:32. > :09:34.it, only two voting against it. It went to the House of Lords, got

:09:35. > :09:38.knocked back. The Government knew there was a looming rebellion.

:09:39. > :09:41.That will be the message of the future.

:09:42. > :09:46.A lot of that pressure play. The investigative powers act, large

:09:47. > :09:49.parts of it will be flayed by the House of Lords, the Government will

:09:50. > :09:53.concede. That is the way it will happen.

:09:54. > :09:58.Whether it is the approval mechanisms or the data gathered or

:09:59. > :10:01.who has access, those will be challenged.

:10:02. > :10:06.All those things will now be more at risk at least after the referendum.

:10:07. > :10:11.Maybe why they are brushing it through in the next few days.

:10:12. > :10:15.I would suggest looking at the campaign, two and a half weeks to

:10:16. > :10:22.go, in the week up to the Whitsun bank holiday, Remain one that, and

:10:23. > :10:26.overwhelming economic amount of stuff coming out.

:10:27. > :10:28.In the weeks since leading up to this weekend, Leave have probably

:10:29. > :10:35.done better. The interviews on Sky.

:10:36. > :10:39.Still all to play for. Leave goes into this week probably with a

:10:40. > :10:45.spring in its step. I think that is right. One of the

:10:46. > :10:50.mistakes of the Remain campaign was at two different points, to feel

:10:51. > :10:56.like they were heading for victory. Once in the aftermath of the visit

:10:57. > :10:59.by President Barack Obama. They thought it was a big moment that

:11:00. > :11:07.would produce a push. A couple of weeks ago, they sensed

:11:08. > :11:10.that polls were going their way, in private conversations they thought

:11:11. > :11:15.they had got it in the bag. That created hubris and a problem.

:11:16. > :11:21.They did not see coming the Australian style points system

:11:22. > :11:25.attacked by Vote Leave last weekend, setting out plans. They thought it

:11:26. > :11:30.would be a policy freak referendum campaign. That pulled the debate

:11:31. > :11:35.back into the Leave side. Is Leave thinking it can win?

:11:36. > :11:42.Privately, I think they are beginning to think they have a 50-50

:11:43. > :11:45.chance, maybe more. Previously, privately, a lot would admit they

:11:46. > :11:50.felt pessimistic. I definitely sense a shift. If you

:11:51. > :11:58.look at what happened in Scotland, it was around this time use saw

:11:59. > :12:03.polls saw an advantage -- seeing an advantage for independence.

:12:04. > :12:08.Still three weeks to go, nobody is counting their chickens.

:12:09. > :12:14.I am reliably informed Leave is ahead but that is embargoed so I

:12:15. > :12:20.didn't mention it. But they still don't think they are

:12:21. > :12:23.losing? How big a victory do they need in

:12:24. > :12:29.order to put the question to bed and preserve the Prime Minister.

:12:30. > :12:35.At least 55-45? That would do it. The fact they

:12:36. > :12:41.deployed John Major shows they are worried.

:12:42. > :12:47.John Major was the nuclear weapons. Lose or win, yes or no?

:12:48. > :12:53.Brexit, a small margin. You heard it here first. Just to

:12:54. > :12:56.mention, as well as the debate we have been discussing, I will be

:12:57. > :12:57.interviewing leading figures from both sides of

:12:58. > :13:02.Starting tomorrow at 7.30 on BBC One, with Shadow Foreign

:13:03. > :13:05.Followed on Wednesday by Chancellor George Osborne.

:13:06. > :13:07.And then it's the turn of Leave campaigners Nigel Farage

:13:08. > :13:14.I hope you can join me, it should be fun.

:13:15. > :13:17.And, of course, we're back here next week as usual at 11 o'clock

:13:18. > :13:58.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:59. > :14:03.It's home to a million people at any one time,