:00:45. > :00:52.As campaigning restarts after the tragic death of the MP
:00:53. > :00:55.Jo Cox, we'll be looking at how the final days leading up
:00:56. > :00:57.to Thursday's EU referendum could have a crucial impact
:00:58. > :01:03.The polls suggest it's all still too close to call as voters
:01:04. > :01:06.across the country make their final decision on whether the UK
:01:07. > :01:08.is better off in or out, of the European Union.
:01:09. > :01:12.And we'll be letting both campaigns go head to head
:01:13. > :01:15.as they test the substance of each other's arguments.
:01:16. > :01:18.As Parliament returns tomorrow, one of Jo Cox's
:01:19. > :01:22.And we've a special report on how Welsh expats see
:01:23. > :01:27.of Lambeth which is said in some recent polling to be one of the most
:01:28. > :01:38.All that to come, and as we enter the final lap before the vote
:01:39. > :01:40.which will shape the future of Britain, I'm joined by three
:01:41. > :01:43.journalists who are just as in the dark about the likely
:01:44. > :01:49.Janan Ganesh, Tom Newton Dunn and Janet Daley.
:01:50. > :01:57.So campaigning is slowly beginning again after the death of the Labour
:01:58. > :02:00.MP Jo Cox on Thursday, with events planed today by both
:02:01. > :02:03.the official Remain and Leave groups.
:02:04. > :02:06.And we've heard from big figures from either side on the
:02:07. > :02:12.Labour leader and Remain supporter Jeremy Corbyn and Leave campaigner
:02:13. > :02:14.and Conservative minister Michael Gove were both asked
:02:15. > :02:19.Is there any kind of upper limit to immigration
:02:20. > :02:24.I don't think you can have one while you have the free movement
:02:25. > :02:27.of labour and I think the free movement of labour means that
:02:28. > :02:30.you have to balance the economy so you have to improve living
:02:31. > :02:37.And so that means the European Union's appalling treatment
:02:38. > :02:39.of Greece, particularly the European Central Bank
:02:40. > :02:43.as well as the European Union, that is a problem.
:02:44. > :02:46.So if you actually deliberately lower living standards and increase
:02:47. > :02:49.poverty in certain countries in south-east or eastern Europe,
:02:50. > :02:52.then you are bound to have a flow of people looking for somewhere
:02:53. > :02:57.Surely the issue is an anti-austerity, a growth package
:02:58. > :03:02.When I've had the opportunity to talk about migration
:03:03. > :03:05.during the course of this debate, I hope I have been very clear.
:03:06. > :03:11.I am pro-migration but I believe that the way in which we secure
:03:12. > :03:13.public support for the continued benefits that migration brings
:03:14. > :03:16.and the way in which we secure public support for helping refugees
:03:17. > :03:19.in need is if people feel that they can control the numbers
:03:20. > :03:23.In Canada and Australia, two countries I very much admire,
:03:24. > :03:26.they have control and therefore they are able both to welcome
:03:27. > :03:38.Both sides talking about immigration. Mr Corbyn saying no
:03:39. > :03:44.upper limit as long as we have free movement in the EU. That is honest
:03:45. > :03:51.but will not be welcome perhaps by the Remain campaign. Not in the
:03:52. > :03:55.slightest. The Leave campaign sleeper agent strikes against! It
:03:56. > :04:01.was Alex Gregory thing to say and you can imagine Jeremy Corbyn being
:04:02. > :04:07.piled full briefing notes before, saying whatever you do, don't talk
:04:08. > :04:12.about people coming in their droves -- an extraordinary thing to say. He
:04:13. > :04:17.threw that all in the bin and told it truthfully, as he saw it. It may
:04:18. > :04:24.be the thing that precipitate a leadership challenge on him after
:04:25. > :04:29.the referendum. Much talk of that but no evidence. What did you make
:04:30. > :04:35.of it? I picked was a phenomenal performance for a covert agent for
:04:36. > :04:40.the opposite side, not such a good performance for a sincere... It was
:04:41. > :04:44.honest. It was candid but there is still an element of the country
:04:45. > :04:49.which is pro-Remain in the most grudging way possible and his
:04:50. > :04:51.approach might resonate a bit more with the more enthusiastic approach
:04:52. > :04:57.from George Osborne or David Cameron. The most telling thing this
:04:58. > :05:00.morning is when Nigel Farage was pressed on his controversial poster
:05:01. > :05:04.on migration a few days ago and his response was to say that the
:05:05. > :05:09.mainstream Leave campaign have come up with some pretty fruity posters
:05:10. > :05:14.of their own on that subject. I think the beginnings of a split
:05:15. > :05:17.between those sides of the Leave campaign, on the tone of how you
:05:18. > :05:22.deal with the issue of migration, might open up even in the last few
:05:23. > :05:27.days. Is there a difference to the tone of the campaign even when
:05:28. > :05:34.talking about immigration? Or is it back to business as usual? The
:05:35. > :05:40.substance of the argument remains the same Ulster Jeremy Corbyn put
:05:41. > :05:48.his finger in the league right on it. As a consequence of the hideous
:05:49. > :05:54.events of the last couple of days if that is a tendency to imply that
:05:55. > :05:58.anybody associated with the Leave campaign, anybody who expresses
:05:59. > :06:05.concerns about the numbers of immigrants, the flow of migration,
:06:06. > :06:09.is somehow a right-wing extremist, a fascist who is, by implication,
:06:10. > :06:14.associated with this crime. Jeremy Corbyn didn't do that. I am saying
:06:15. > :06:18.there is a tone in the media coverage that implies guilt by
:06:19. > :06:21.association with anybody who expresses concern about migration
:06:22. > :06:29.and that is very dangerous because the surest way to drive people into
:06:30. > :06:32.extraparliamentary opposition and dissidents is to make it clear that
:06:33. > :06:39.no respectable politician will pick up their concerns. Did you agree
:06:40. > :06:45.with Nigel Farage? Of course not. Nothing is wrong with pointing it
:06:46. > :06:53.out. George Osborne has poured petrol on the plane is talking about
:06:54. > :06:59.the echoes of 1930s. -- the flames. That is absurd. Your point about a
:07:00. > :07:04.split in the Leave campaign, there have been a split from the off.
:07:05. > :07:13.Right from the beginning. There is a difference in tone between... I was
:07:14. > :07:19.going to say, the story last week was of a widening gap with Remain in
:07:20. > :07:23.the lead that was the opinion polls, sorry, with Leave in the lead. If
:07:24. > :07:28.you were on the Remain site, would you not take comfort from the polls
:07:29. > :07:32.today? Especially from the fact that, according to YouGov, the mood
:07:33. > :07:36.in the polls predate the killing of Jo Cox so you could conclusion there
:07:37. > :07:44.is a structural reversion to continue to which often occurs
:07:45. > :07:47.before big elections. -- continuity. But it does not help that you have
:07:48. > :07:55.the lead of the opposition getting into a conversation about free
:07:56. > :07:58.movement. One of the biggest poll findings, the number of people who
:07:59. > :08:01.feel they would lose out material from Brexit has gone up from 23 233%
:08:02. > :08:05.and that is how win. Plenty of opinion polls
:08:06. > :08:07.in this morning's papers, as you'd expect in the last weekend
:08:08. > :08:09.before the vote. There will be more to
:08:10. > :08:11.come in the days ahead. Of course, polls are not quite
:08:12. > :08:14.the holy grail these days, especially after their failure
:08:15. > :08:16.to get the result right And the pollsters find referendums
:08:17. > :08:20.even trickier than other votes. But imperfect as they may be,
:08:21. > :08:23.they're what we've got and they've told an interesting story
:08:24. > :08:25.throughout the campaign. Polls conducted by phone like this
:08:26. > :08:30.one back in May by Ipsos Mori have consistently put Remain ahead -
:08:31. > :08:33.here with an 18-point lead, But signs things were changing
:08:34. > :08:39.emerged at the end of last month, as one phone poll showed
:08:40. > :08:42.Leave three points ahead. And just this Thursday the latest
:08:43. > :08:46.Ipsos Mori survey caused a bit of a stir when it showed Leave
:08:47. > :08:49.with a six-point lead. But those carried out online have
:08:50. > :08:55.shown a different story, with the two sides level pegging
:08:56. > :08:59.or with Leave ahead. Back in May before the 'purdah'
:09:00. > :09:03.period which stopped the government taking part in the campaign,
:09:04. > :09:05.one internet poll gave Almost a month later,
:09:06. > :09:10.another online poll, this one by ICM, had
:09:11. > :09:15.Leave five points ahead. But this YouGov survey is one
:09:16. > :09:19.of four polls released overnight, suggesting both sides are neck
:09:20. > :09:21.and neck, suggesting the result So that's the story told
:09:22. > :09:28.by the polls in the months leading up to the referendum,
:09:29. > :09:31.and just so you have the full YouGov for the Sunday Times puts
:09:32. > :09:37.Remain on 44%, one point Another YouGov poll
:09:38. > :09:43.for Good Morning Britain gives Opinium for the Observer has Leave
:09:44. > :09:50.and Remain level pegging on 44%. And Survation for the Mail
:09:51. > :09:52.on Sunday, the only telephone poll today, has Remain
:09:53. > :10:02.on 45% and Leave on 42%. Well, there's only one man we can
:10:03. > :10:06.turn to explain what it all means - I speak of course of elections
:10:07. > :10:19.expert John Curtice, Four new polls out this morning.
:10:20. > :10:23.What do they tell us? They certainly provide a degree of relief for David
:10:24. > :10:28.Cameron and the remaining macro side after some dire polls last week
:10:29. > :10:34.which almost unanimously suggested a sharp drop in support for Remain.
:10:35. > :10:39.But it is perhaps an indication of just how tight this referendum has
:10:40. > :10:44.become that three Internet polls between suggested it was 50-50 and
:10:45. > :10:49.one telephone pole, which although it puts Remain back in the lead, it
:10:50. > :10:53.makes the lead much narrower that in any previous point in the campaign.
:10:54. > :10:57.The fact that that is regarded as good news for them is an indication
:10:58. > :11:03.of how much trouble they had got into seemingly. I think these polls
:11:04. > :11:10.were taken at a time when it was too early, tell me if I'm wrong, to see
:11:11. > :11:17.if the appalling tragedy of Jo Cox has had any impact on the campaign.
:11:18. > :11:22.I think that is correct. The telephone poll was done entirely
:11:23. > :11:27.afterwards, one of the YouGov polls was done mostly afterwards. They are
:11:28. > :11:30.saying that the poll they did just before was already showing Remain
:11:31. > :11:36.increasing and the one after shows that continuing further. Given that
:11:37. > :11:39.there was a widespread expectation that perhaps Remain would start to
:11:40. > :11:45.regain ground as people considered the possible risks of voting for
:11:46. > :11:49.Leave, maybe this process had already kicked in and that is
:11:50. > :11:54.explaining something of a movement back towards Remain, and it may not
:11:55. > :11:58.necessarily have anything to do with the tragic murder of Jo Cox. There
:11:59. > :12:06.is nothing in these polls to be able to pin it definitively on that
:12:07. > :12:12.particular event. It is often said in referenda that there can be a
:12:13. > :12:16.reversion to the status quo on the final day and that would be to vote
:12:17. > :12:24.to remain. Is there any sign of that? And what can you tell us about
:12:25. > :12:28.the undecideds? I saw some of the polling suggesting that those who
:12:29. > :12:34.were undecided, if they vote, they are more likely to vote to remain
:12:35. > :12:38.than to come out. Your first point, it is precisely whether that process
:12:39. > :12:42.are people reverting back to the status quo is already kicking in and
:12:43. > :12:46.this explains why the polls this weekend are somewhat better than
:12:47. > :12:52.those in the week. And I think what it does seem to be the case, we are
:12:53. > :12:58.asking is that movement to leave was a stone that was gathering more moss
:12:59. > :13:02.and would continue this weekend and that clearly hadn't happened. Remain
:13:03. > :13:10.may hope that people reverting back to the status quo might happen, that
:13:11. > :13:16.is the first point. The second was about the significance of the
:13:17. > :13:19.undecideds. The number of them going down and the people who have made up
:13:20. > :13:25.their mind is going up but you are right that most polls find that the
:13:26. > :13:29.people who don't know are most likely to vote first of all and the
:13:30. > :13:36.second thing they are likely to do is to vote for Remain. And many of
:13:37. > :13:39.the opinion polls published now are already including into their
:13:40. > :13:43.headline tallies the reported votes of those who initially said they
:13:44. > :13:49.were undecided but are asked a follow up squeeze question. We
:13:50. > :13:52.should not say there is more ground to be made for Remain from that
:13:53. > :13:54.particular phenomenon. Thank you. Only a few days to go,
:13:55. > :13:58.so how will the campaigns try to win over undecided voters in the short
:13:59. > :14:01.time they have remaining? Well, we're joined now from Somerset
:14:02. > :14:04.by the former Lib Dem And here in the studio by the Labour
:14:05. > :14:21.MP and Leave campaigner, Paddy Ashdown, do you get a sense
:14:22. > :14:26.this weekend, if I can put it this way, that the Remain campaign is
:14:27. > :14:31.back on track? Andrew Neil, you really want to bring me on straight
:14:32. > :14:39.after John Curtis, my nemesis, and ask me to disagree with him! The
:14:40. > :14:42.last time I had to eat my hat... I disagreed with John twice on the
:14:43. > :14:47.poll now and I have been wrong on every occasion and I'm delighted to
:14:48. > :14:52.make my apologies to him on your programme. I don't know all the I
:14:53. > :14:56.think what you're talking about with John about the undecided voters
:14:57. > :15:04.maybe keep to this, if they vote or not, and if they do, will they vote
:15:05. > :15:09.in favour of remaining as people predict. I don't think any of us
:15:10. > :15:16.know. It is all within a margin of error, it is all to play for and it
:15:17. > :15:20.looks to me, extremely tight. Perhaps a small shift in favour of
:15:21. > :15:24.remaining macro but too small to be certain about it.
:15:25. > :15:32.We got some austere stories about the economy from the Chancellor this
:15:33. > :15:35.morning on ITV. In the final three days, starting tomorrow, three more
:15:36. > :15:42.days of campaigning to go, is that the right way to go, or would you
:15:43. > :15:47.advise the Remain campaign to start putting out a more positive message
:15:48. > :15:51.about remaining in the EU? They are following a playbook they have
:15:52. > :15:56.followed before. I'm not involved with the Remain campaign. My advice
:15:57. > :16:00.to voters, when it comes to predictions on the economy, do not
:16:01. > :16:05.listen to either side, listen to the independent voices whose job it is,
:16:06. > :16:09.paid by all the nations on earth, to make judgments about the economic
:16:10. > :16:15.consequences of our political actions. They have been wrong
:16:16. > :16:19.before, but I'll be all wrong? Are only Mr Johnson and Mr Farage red?
:16:20. > :16:24.People need to realise they are betting their jobs and the national
:16:25. > :16:29.economy on this. Nothing is certain, but when you make the judgment, you
:16:30. > :16:33.probably want to wear on your mind, not George Osborne's comments, or
:16:34. > :16:38.Boris Johnson's from the other side, they will put the point as they want
:16:39. > :16:43.to, but those independent voices, every single one of them, without
:16:44. > :16:49.exception, who are independent of the campaign, the global experts on
:16:50. > :16:55.this. This is not a conspiracy, it is a consensus, all of them say it
:16:56. > :16:59.will seriously damage our economy. For most people, worried about their
:17:00. > :17:08.jobs, that will be a more powerful factor in making your decision. More
:17:09. > :17:14.powerful than the words of the opposition parties. Some in Remain
:17:15. > :17:16.may not regard it as helpful, but Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC this
:17:17. > :17:23.morning that with free movement within the EU, you can have no upper
:17:24. > :17:29.limit on immigration. That was accurate and honest, wasn't it? One
:17:30. > :17:34.thing you can be sure of, if we leave the European Union, you will
:17:35. > :17:38.control immigration, but not anyway that the out campaigners claim. You
:17:39. > :17:44.will trash the economy, far fewer jobs and no one will want to come
:17:45. > :17:48.here. Your language is interesting. We will trash the economy, not that
:17:49. > :17:57.we will not grow as fast, not that it will be better to stay in than
:17:58. > :18:01.I'd, but we will trash the economy? Find another word, if you wish. We
:18:02. > :18:08.are slowly recovering from recession. It has been massive pain
:18:09. > :18:12.to get out of the mess we were in. The international economy, all of
:18:13. > :18:16.those who comment, they say in big terms are small towns, the used
:18:17. > :18:21.strong words are relatively more moderated ones, the agree it will
:18:22. > :18:27.push us back into recession. You can use trash the economy or say we are
:18:28. > :18:31.going back into recession. Creating those jobs, making Britain one of
:18:32. > :18:37.the best economies in Europe, we would turn that around if we came
:18:38. > :18:40.out. The consequences will be for jobs and businesses, the tax
:18:41. > :18:45.revenues for the government that pays for our public services, it
:18:46. > :18:52.will be very serious. John Mann, immigration has been a big part of
:18:53. > :18:57.the Leave campaign. Did the town get too hostile on immigration, did it
:18:58. > :19:02.get to a robust? Yes, and Nigel Farage's poster is the worst example
:19:03. > :19:07.of that. It would be better known if it had not been produced and he
:19:08. > :19:13.withdrew it. It is unhelpful and inaccurate, irrelevant to the real
:19:14. > :19:19.debate. So yes. What did you make of Jeremy Corbyn's remarks this morning
:19:20. > :19:23.on immigration? The issues in working-class communities remain.
:19:24. > :19:28.The issues are about pay, agency work, they are about people's hopes
:19:29. > :19:34.for the future. When you have zero our contracts, when the health
:19:35. > :19:37.services under pressure, and people see privatisation and cuts, the
:19:38. > :19:44.Labour agenda on Friday, whatever the result, it has to get into that.
:19:45. > :19:49.If it is a Leave vote, the first thing Labour could be doing was
:19:50. > :19:53.demanding a dash was demanding an immediate end of the procurement
:19:54. > :19:58.rules for public services. We could argue for an increase in public
:19:59. > :20:02.servers pay, to stop the impact of the European Court rulings and
:20:03. > :20:08.reinforcing agencies. It is agencies and the uncertainty in the labour
:20:09. > :20:12.market that is really behind the strain that appears to be in working
:20:13. > :20:17.-- the strength that appears to be in working-class communities for
:20:18. > :20:23.Kallis leave. There are only three days to go. Is the biggest issue
:20:24. > :20:28.immigration again? I hope not. I hope it is about hope and vision for
:20:29. > :20:31.what kind of country we want in the future, and how best in the modern
:20:32. > :20:36.technological age, where the computer has been invented, where we
:20:37. > :20:40.order things online, where big developments will get even faster,
:20:41. > :20:50.about how we deal with the whole of the world. I think that politicians,
:20:51. > :20:54.MPs, all of us, myself included, we remain extremely shaken by the
:20:55. > :21:00.horrific murder of Jo Cox. I think there will be less campaigning, less
:21:01. > :21:04.than there was. However strong people's views, they do not want to
:21:05. > :21:09.be banging on doors at the current time. I think there will be less
:21:10. > :21:15.politicians out and about and there would have been. There seems to be
:21:16. > :21:18.of their weight behind Leave, last week, certainly, up until the
:21:19. > :21:23.terrible events on Thursday. Do you get a sense that it could be
:21:24. > :21:26.slipping away from you this weekend? From the polls last time, I would
:21:27. > :21:32.have expected them to bounce back little bit. It will depend on
:21:33. > :21:35.turnout. If there is a disproportionately high turnout in
:21:36. > :21:43.the areas that do not normally vote, it will end up with a Leave vote. If
:21:44. > :21:47.it is lower, it will be Remain. Turnout will decide. It is not
:21:48. > :21:51.predictable. I hope the vast majority of people are voting and
:21:52. > :21:58.whatever the result, we need to get together as a country, and get
:21:59. > :22:04.behind that result. Paddy Ashdown... Would you allow me. It is a really
:22:05. > :22:08.important statement that John Mann has made. I admire him very much and
:22:09. > :22:14.I know he is just as interested in the future of this country as I am.
:22:15. > :22:19.If it is the case that the terrible death of Jo Cox, who I campaigned
:22:20. > :22:24.with on the issues of refugees and two I had massive admiration for, if
:22:25. > :22:28.that has led to a change in tone, that would be welcome. The way that
:22:29. > :22:33.John put his case and the way he moved away from the Nigel Farage
:22:34. > :22:38.poster, which I find distasteful, if that is the tone of this campaign, I
:22:39. > :22:42.do not think it will massively alter the result, but that last we will
:22:43. > :22:47.have a campaign we can be proud of, one that I have felt so far
:22:48. > :22:51.extremely ashamed about. High octane insults from both sides. Some of
:22:52. > :22:56.that is because it is an internal civil war in the Tory party, and
:22:57. > :23:03.they are always the worst. I was at the Oval the other day, and the man
:23:04. > :23:07.came up to the In campaign and said they should be executed. If we can
:23:08. > :23:12.get away from that, lower the tone and follow the approach John Mann is
:23:13. > :23:16.suggesting, we will have a good debate, honoured democracy, and it's
:23:17. > :23:20.essential qualities of tolerance and respect for others, rather than the
:23:21. > :23:24.kind of thing we have had in recent weeks. Will the final three days of
:23:25. > :23:31.the campaign be that different in tone? I think they will be.
:23:32. > :23:39.Certainly members of Parliament will be careful on the language used. I
:23:40. > :23:43.hope on the Leave site, everyone will distance themselves from Nigel
:23:44. > :23:48.Farage's poster and what lay behind that. I hope that on the Remain
:23:49. > :23:54.side, people Walsh move away from the exaggerations that have taken
:23:55. > :24:01.place. -- people will move. Paddy Ashdown. I agree with that as well.
:24:02. > :24:06.We have dealt in hyperbole. The public does not trust either side.
:24:07. > :24:11.If we can change that now, if we can come back to a statement of the
:24:12. > :24:17.facts, maybe relying on independent opinions, I think the last few days
:24:18. > :24:22.of the campaign will honour us. In the interests of our anti-hyperbole
:24:23. > :24:26.Drive, can both Remain and Leave agree that when the French economic
:24:27. > :24:31.minister says that if we vote to leave, we will be no more important
:24:32. > :24:37.than Guernsey, we can file that under hyperbole? Yes, you can. You
:24:38. > :24:42.may be able to file it under trash. Thank you. Thank you, John Mann, we
:24:43. > :24:48.can file that under hyperbole? Yes, we can.
:24:49. > :24:50.Now, over the past two weeks we've been letting the politicians
:24:51. > :24:53.from either side of this referendum debate interrogate each other over
:24:54. > :24:55.what they feel are the really big issues at stake.
:24:56. > :24:58.Today, in the last of the series for now, we've invited
:24:59. > :25:00.the Green Party MP and Remain campaigner Caroline Lucas
:25:01. > :25:02.to question the Conservative minister and Leave campaigner
:25:03. > :25:09.A little earlier, we tossed a coin to see who would go first.
:25:10. > :25:11.Dominic was the winner, and he chose to answer
:25:12. > :25:20.So, before we get started, let's have a listen to Domnic Raab
:25:21. > :25:27.making the case for why undecided voters should vote to leave.
:25:28. > :25:31.I am confident in you, the British people, and I am also
:25:32. > :25:35.convinced with my head and my heart that we can only reach our full
:25:36. > :25:41.Take some of the positives of leaving the EU, our small
:25:42. > :25:45.businesses would be freed up from straitjacket regulation.
:25:46. > :25:48.That is important for us because small businesses in this
:25:49. > :25:52.We would be freed up to trade more energetically with the growth
:25:53. > :25:55.markets of the future, from Asia to Latin America,
:25:56. > :26:02.which will cut prices in the shops, and we will take back full control
:26:03. > :26:05.over the money we give the EU, and our gross contribution is now
:26:06. > :26:07.?350 million every week and certain to rise.
:26:08. > :26:10.When it comes to immigration it can bring huge benefits,
:26:11. > :26:12.but only if it is properly controlled.
:26:13. > :26:15.Uncontrolled immigration from the EU has put pressure on jobs and wages,
:26:16. > :26:17.and a massive strain on infrastructure,
:26:18. > :26:23.The truth is, we cannot properly control immigration
:26:24. > :26:26.There is something bigger in this debate, something
:26:27. > :26:31.I want us to be masters of our own destiny.
:26:32. > :26:34.I want it as a citizen, as a father, and I want it
:26:35. > :26:40.With the majority of laws now made in Brussels by politicians
:26:41. > :26:42.and bureaucrats not elected by or accountable to you,
:26:43. > :26:45.we can only truly be masters of our own destiny if we vote
:26:46. > :26:51.to leave the EU on 23rd June and take back democratic control.
:26:52. > :26:53.And here are Caroline Lucas and Dominic Raab.
:26:54. > :27:01.And just to explain the rules, Caroline has just five minutes
:27:02. > :27:05.She can only ask questions, and he can only give answers.
:27:06. > :27:16.Thank you. Dominik, how much is Britain's net weekly contribution to
:27:17. > :27:20.the EU? Weekly? The grosses 350 million and the net contribution is
:27:21. > :27:25.around half of that. You will know that on this leaflet it says, let's
:27:26. > :27:30.give NHS the 350 million the EU takes every week. Is that not
:27:31. > :27:34.misleading because it is not the real figure? After was four months
:27:35. > :27:37.of campaigning, people have understood there is a difference
:27:38. > :27:41.between the gross contribution, and that includes some of the things
:27:42. > :27:45.that the EU spends in this country on our behalf, without is being able
:27:46. > :27:51.to prioritise, as well as the amount we give and do not see back. We want
:27:52. > :27:56.the money back that the EU spends on itself. Do you accept this as a
:27:57. > :28:01.wrong figure? We want control over the money we put in. It is the gross
:28:02. > :28:06.contribution, I have made that clear. We never send the men from
:28:07. > :28:12.the rebate, so we cannot possibly be spending that again on the NHS. Why
:28:13. > :28:16.should anyone believe your side on the NHS, given that also some of the
:28:17. > :28:21.key vote leave campaigners are people who want to privatise the
:28:22. > :28:25.NHS? We have a wide range of politicians involved. We have heard
:28:26. > :28:30.from John Mann. You're some of the most left-wing unions like our side.
:28:31. > :28:36.In relation to what we said about the NHS, we would take 100 million
:28:37. > :28:39.each week from the net contribution. That is the allocation that would be
:28:40. > :28:43.made. When you get your salary from the House of Commons you get a gross
:28:44. > :28:51.figure. There is a difference between that and your take-home pay.
:28:52. > :28:54.There is no difference here. That is a misleading figure. I want to come
:28:55. > :28:58.onto another poster. This is another one you will be familiar with. The
:28:59. > :29:05.Leave side are sending at around the country. It says that Turkey I
:29:06. > :29:10.leaving the EU. On a scale of one to ten, how would you rate the
:29:11. > :29:17.suggestion that Turkey is close to becoming a EU member? I think it is
:29:18. > :29:23.right. Turkey is in the process of joining. British taxpayers are
:29:24. > :29:28.already paying ?1.8 billion between 2014 and 2022 pave the way. We have
:29:29. > :29:33.had politicians from Tony Blair to David Cameron making it clear that
:29:34. > :29:39.the UK wants Turkey to join the EU. The UK has a veto, doesn't it? It
:29:40. > :29:46.cannot possibly join in the UK uses that? It is a theoretical veto. It
:29:47. > :29:51.is real. Can you imagine Cyprus not using its veto? From Tony Blair to
:29:52. > :29:57.David Cameron, the consensus in this country is that Turkey should join
:29:58. > :30:01.the EU. Our diplomats are working on measures to expedite that happening.
:30:02. > :30:06.You have got to take into account the impact that would have. How many
:30:07. > :30:10.of the 35 chapters or areas of compliance that Turkey would have to
:30:11. > :30:13.fulfil before it could join, how many of those have been fulfilled in
:30:14. > :30:21.the last 30 years they have been trying to join? Not many. It is one.
:30:22. > :30:28.That is why it is worrying that in Whitehall and in Brussels they are
:30:29. > :30:31.expediting Turkish membership. I was in the Foreign Office when the eight
:30:32. > :30:35.countries from Central and eastern Europe were playing and in many of
:30:36. > :30:39.those cases those criteria were ignored because the political will
:30:40. > :30:43.was there and that is what we have now. Would you accept that this
:30:44. > :30:46.leaflet is misleading because it sounds like it is going to happen
:30:47. > :30:54.soon and it clearly isn't and Britain has a veto? Turkish
:30:55. > :30:58.membership of the EU is a question of when and not if and in that case
:30:59. > :31:02.it is right. Do you think is contributing to an atmosphere of
:31:03. > :31:06.fear and hatred? The responsible thing is to talk about immigration
:31:07. > :31:10.in a sensitive way and if you ignore it and you don't talk about the
:31:11. > :31:15.costs of immigration, you're going to get far more fringe extremist
:31:16. > :31:22.politics. That's not airbrush it out of the debate. I want to ask you,
:31:23. > :31:27.key campaigners on the Leave side like Nigel Lawson and Nigel Farage
:31:28. > :31:32.are at best climate sceptics is not climate deniers do you agree with
:31:33. > :31:37.them? I'm not a climate sceptic at all. You were pleased to see the
:31:38. > :31:41.agreement in Paris? Did the EU play a good role? The problem we have is
:31:42. > :31:45.that 10% of CO2 emissions come from the EU and 90% from the rest of the
:31:46. > :31:49.world so we need a global 08 regional approach. When I dealt with
:31:50. > :31:53.a lot of global institutions, the problem is the EU is so inward
:31:54. > :31:57.looking, we lose sight of the big picture and it is global not
:31:58. > :32:02.regional. The EU played a key role in Paris in terms of ratcheting up
:32:03. > :32:05.the ambition, yes or no? I don't think the ambition was particularly
:32:06. > :32:07.high if you look at the Regent of the world outside the EU. We will
:32:08. > :32:10.leave it there. -- the regions. Now it's the turn of Caroline
:32:11. > :32:13.to be cross-examined. First, let's have a look
:32:14. > :32:15.at her pitch to undecided voters, arguing the case
:32:16. > :32:21.for a vote to remain. They are in their early 20s now,
:32:22. > :32:25.and this referendum goes to the heart of the kind of future
:32:26. > :32:28.I want for them, that all of us want for our young
:32:29. > :32:31.people and for Britain. Yet there is a risk that the outcome
:32:32. > :32:34.will be decided by older generations if young people do not get
:32:35. > :32:36.out and vote. The EU can help us build a safer,
:32:37. > :32:39.better future, because the biggest challenges we face today
:32:40. > :32:41.are by their very nature international, and are best tackled
:32:42. > :32:44.by working hand-in-hand with our neighbours,
:32:45. > :32:46.challenges like climate change, the refugee crisis, cross-border
:32:47. > :32:52.crime and terrorism. The EU has been a force for good,
:32:53. > :32:55.from guaranteeing workers' rights to protecting our shared environment
:32:56. > :32:58.and helping to create jobs in every To turn our backs on this would be
:32:59. > :33:04.to turn our backs on a safer, greener, more prosperous
:33:05. > :33:05.and peaceful future. This referendum will define
:33:06. > :33:08.what kind of country our children Do we want to be an isolated,
:33:09. > :33:16.inward-looking country that cares only about what it can get out
:33:17. > :33:20.of the rest of the world, or do we want to be a generous,
:33:21. > :33:23.confident and outward-looking country that wants to be able
:33:24. > :33:26.to play its part in making Let's not take our
:33:27. > :33:29.country backwards. I taught my children that the right
:33:30. > :33:33.thing to do when confronted with a challenge is to stand tall
:33:34. > :33:36.and find a solution, That is why I am voting to remain
:33:37. > :33:41.on June 23rd and I am So, as before, Dominic,
:33:42. > :33:47.you have six minutes to question Caroline,
:33:48. > :33:59.off you go. The organisation which is trying to
:34:00. > :34:04.independently verify facts for the public estimate that around 50 to
:34:05. > :34:08.60% of UK law that are now made in Brussels. How high would that
:34:09. > :34:12.percentage have to be for you to be in favour of leaving the EU? It
:34:13. > :34:16.depends why those rules are being made in Brussels. They are being
:34:17. > :34:20.made because getting single market and we want to make sure there are
:34:21. > :34:23.strong social and environmental standards, I'm delighted that they
:34:24. > :34:26.are being made in Brussels, they should be come they are there
:34:27. > :34:30.because we want to make sure cross-border problems like air
:34:31. > :34:33.pollution are controlled because we have the ability to work
:34:34. > :34:39.cross-border in the EU, absolutely it should be there. Looking at bold
:34:40. > :34:44.figures does not help us. If 100% of the laws were made in Brussels,
:34:45. > :34:47.fined by you? It's a bit ridiculous to think that not a single domestic
:34:48. > :34:54.law would be made in Britain. Things like housing and defence and some
:34:55. > :34:58.issues are still decided at UK level. Where would you draw the
:34:59. > :35:01.line? I'm trying to get a sense of when you think the tipping point
:35:02. > :35:06.arrives when we have lost so much of our democracy. I would challenge the
:35:07. > :35:10.premise of your question because the idea that the EU is fundamentally
:35:11. > :35:14.more undemocratic than with Minster is wrong. The government that you
:35:15. > :35:18.represent was elected with just 24% of the eligible vote, we have an
:35:19. > :35:22.unelected House of Lords, at least in the European institutions we have
:35:23. > :35:25.a parliament are through proportional representation and the
:35:26. > :35:29.Council of ministers which means that if a democratic oversight of
:35:30. > :35:35.the rules coming from Brussels. When the people watching the show get to
:35:36. > :35:38.hold to account the 27th of heads of government in the European Council,
:35:39. > :35:44.the 10th of thousands of bureaucrats and the 90% of MEPs not from
:35:45. > :35:49.Britain? -- tens of thousands. There are fewer people working for the
:35:50. > :35:54.interjections in Brussels than for Kent County Council for example. --
:35:55. > :36:05.for the institutions. I would be the first to say that
:36:06. > :36:11.EU should be more democratic and accountable, I would like to see the
:36:12. > :36:15.European Parliament have more powers and the commission have fewer. To
:36:16. > :36:20.suggest that would be a reason for leaving the EU is just wrong, we
:36:21. > :36:24.need to be in there to fight it. Net immigration from the EU was 184,000
:36:25. > :36:32.last year, that is the equivalent of a size city the size of Oxford. Do
:36:33. > :36:36.you think there should be any limit on the volume of immigration from
:36:37. > :36:41.the EU? Jeremy Corbyn said note this morning. I think it will be
:36:42. > :36:44.self-regulating to an extent because people are coming because the other
:36:45. > :36:50.fifth richest country in the world and there are jobs here. So we don't
:36:51. > :36:52.need a limit? To have an arbitrary limit would be ineffective and we
:36:53. > :36:56.have seen that from looking at your own promise to try to do by talking
:36:57. > :36:59.about bringing it down to tens of thousands. There is no way he can do
:37:00. > :37:04.that because there is more migration coming from outside the EU that
:37:05. > :37:09.inside anyway. Take Romania and Bulgaria, the average wage around ?3
:37:10. > :37:13.an hour, we have a minimum rate of ?7.20 an hour, eight strong pull
:37:14. > :37:19.factor which puts strains on the NHS and housing. If it up price worth
:37:20. > :37:22.paying for staying in? There are so many assumptions in your question.
:37:23. > :37:26.Most of the pressure on our housing and education and health system is
:37:27. > :37:29.coming from a lack of investment and cuts on the government, not from
:37:30. > :37:32.people coming in. In the NHS you are far more likely to be treated by
:37:33. > :37:36.someone who has come from another European country. There are some
:37:37. > :37:41.real challenges in there. I'm not saying that regression doesn't bring
:37:42. > :37:45.pressures but we should be recognising there is a net economic
:37:46. > :37:48.benefit that migrants bring with them so let's invest that properly
:37:49. > :37:53.in the services in the area. The latest report by the EU's
:37:54. > :37:57.anti-corruption body shows fraudulent abuse of EU funds at
:37:58. > :38:02.record levels, they have been criticised for not even implementing
:38:03. > :38:06.the first obligation under the UN's Convention against corruption. Under
:38:07. > :38:09.our aid policy, we would not give a penny of taxpayers money to a poor
:38:10. > :38:14.African country that would not comply with UN standards but we give
:38:15. > :38:17.billions to the EU. Are you comfortable with that? I'm not
:38:18. > :38:21.comfortable with corruption or fraud but I don't think the EU has a
:38:22. > :38:24.monopoly on that and many times the accounts have not been able to be
:38:25. > :38:27.signed up because individual nation states have not done their job
:38:28. > :38:34.properly, it is government at fault, not the EU. In your election
:38:35. > :38:39.manifesto you referred to the EU's unsustainable economic 's. Do you
:38:40. > :38:43.still hold that view? I think it is unsustainable whether at EU level or
:38:44. > :38:48.British level and the way to do that do that is to fight it in Britain
:38:49. > :38:50.and in the EU. Thank you to both of you.
:38:51. > :38:52.It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:53. > :38:54.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:55. > :38:59.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead, when we'll be
:39:00. > :39:03.talking about how the final week of this campaign could take shape.
:39:04. > :39:11.First though, the Sunday Politics where you are.
:39:12. > :39:13.Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:39:14. > :39:16.Wales are looking to stay in the Euros tomorrow,
:39:17. > :39:18.but what are the chances of increasing the numbers
:39:19. > :39:27.A postcard from Spain on how Welsh people see the EU Referendum.
:39:28. > :39:30.But first, politics changed this week.
:39:31. > :39:33.In the middle of an increasingly bitter referendum campaign,
:39:34. > :39:36.everything came to a halt last Thursday as the news of the death
:39:37. > :39:41.The details of what happened that day don't need to be repeated.
:39:42. > :39:44.But often terrible events raise difficult questions.
:39:45. > :39:47.For example, what does it say about the character
:39:48. > :39:51.Does the low regard in which our politicians are held need to change?
:39:52. > :39:55.The Cardiff South and Penarth MP Stephen Doughty knew Jo Cox
:39:56. > :40:12.Thanks are coming in on what is a difficult time. Tell us about her.
:40:13. > :40:17.All our viewers will have read the thousands of column inches about the
:40:18. > :40:20.tenacious, cheeky, fun loving woman. That doesn't really scratch the
:40:21. > :40:26.surface? It does reflect part of her
:40:27. > :40:31.character. I knew Jo for 15 years. I first met in Wales. She had a
:40:32. > :40:37.affection for Wales, had lots of close friends here. I met her
:40:38. > :40:45.campaigning on the referent -- European campaign with Glenys
:40:46. > :40:50.Kinnock. We made views. I got to know whether best when it worked
:40:51. > :40:54.with her at Oxfam and the humanitarian sector. She was my boss
:40:55. > :41:00.at Oxfam and she was a remarkable woman. She was fallen, full of
:41:01. > :41:05.energy and full of ideas that she had a huge focus on what's really
:41:06. > :41:10.mattered. She felt passionately about people in conflict around the
:41:11. > :41:15.world, about women in particular. And about the big issues of our
:41:16. > :41:19.time. She would frustrate us by not being interested in the bureaucracy
:41:20. > :41:25.of meetings because you wanted to be out there speaking to people. She
:41:26. > :41:30.seemed as somebody who represented the best of politics. There was a
:41:31. > :41:37.tribute to her by Andrew Mitchell saying she got on with him, party
:41:38. > :41:44.politics aside, let's get on with Syria. That is what you would want
:41:45. > :41:47.from your politician. Absolutely. She believed in building bridges.
:41:48. > :41:52.She was proudly laboured to the corporate she knew you couldn't
:41:53. > :41:57.speak to the people who agreed with you. When this came to big issues
:41:58. > :42:01.like International development or humanitarian crises or conflicts in
:42:02. > :42:04.the world you had to reach out and influence the people who were able
:42:05. > :42:08.to make those decisions, even if they didn't initially agree with
:42:09. > :42:14.you. She was happy to reach out across the house but in other ways.
:42:15. > :42:18.If that is to be some legacy do you think it ought to be that
:42:19. > :42:21.politicians stop thorough moments, for example in the referendum
:42:22. > :42:27.campaigning, and paused to think how they should conduct in future. It is
:42:28. > :42:31.causing people to reflect on how they conduct themselves. We all take
:42:32. > :42:36.part in the tribal politics and football style chanting in Prime
:42:37. > :42:45.Minister's Questions. For some people but goes into a more closed
:42:46. > :42:58.mind mentality and Jo's example was she would work with others. It has
:42:59. > :43:02.raised the issue of MP security. It is an important part of our
:43:03. > :43:07.democratic process. You can go to your MP and have a word and shout
:43:08. > :43:12.sometimes. Get of what want off your chest. How important is it that is
:43:13. > :43:19.maintained but balancing it with security? One of the most important
:43:20. > :43:23.thing in our work democracy is that. People say MPs and out of touch with
:43:24. > :43:27.the public. MPs are more in touch with the public that they have been
:43:28. > :43:31.in any time in history because we come back every week to meet the
:43:32. > :43:36.people and knock doors. Our accessibility on social media and
:43:37. > :43:40.e-mail and so on. I speak to hundreds of people in my local area
:43:41. > :43:44.who agree with me, disagree with me and I would hate to see that put at
:43:45. > :43:51.risk for stop but how does that interaction on social media can
:43:52. > :43:55.change into something abusive? It has change things. People don't
:43:56. > :44:02.realise what they are doing online is the equivalent of shouting abuse
:44:03. > :44:08.in the a room full of people. They wouldn't do that in person but they
:44:09. > :44:16.happy to do that on a keyboard. Some other takes on a sinister character.
:44:17. > :44:21.Chris Bryant said on Friday evening he thought perhaps the authorities
:44:22. > :44:24.in Parliament, the security elements, wasn't being taken
:44:25. > :44:30.seriously enough. Is that something he would go along with Mike Darragh
:44:31. > :44:38.measures in place and my experience locally has been supportive.
:44:39. > :44:42.Sometimes it has been bureaucratic in Westminster particularly the
:44:43. > :44:46.situation many women MPs have found themselves in. There have been
:44:47. > :44:50.serious threats. I sat with colleagues a few months ago who were
:44:51. > :44:54.being threatened with killed or raped because of their gender or
:44:55. > :45:00.religion. That is not acceptable. It might be said on a Twitter account
:45:01. > :45:04.on a Facebook account but for some people that can turn into a
:45:05. > :45:13.dangerous reality. Does this feed into the Ludik garden with which MPs
:45:14. > :45:18.are currently held? -- low regard. They do seem to be a poison in the
:45:19. > :45:24.discussion about politicians stop those that need to be challenged now
:45:25. > :45:28.and addressed? Does that don't think it is the place to politicians.
:45:29. > :45:33.Anybody who puts themselves out of the public services and people put
:45:34. > :45:37.themselves into the public sphere, journalists included. I have spoken
:45:38. > :45:43.to one of my party members, he works in a well-known bakery store in
:45:44. > :45:50.Cardiff and the abuse they suffer from customer, we have stuff bash
:45:51. > :45:57.lost something as a society when it is acceptable to shout at people.
:45:58. > :46:03.For politicians, they have all out from it for themselves and on, that
:46:04. > :46:07.seems to have been ignored by large parts of the public now. How do you
:46:08. > :46:15.tried to go about rebuilding that higher regard? In my experience is
:46:16. > :46:26.the vast majority of MPs are in there for whatever reasons for the
:46:27. > :46:31.greater good. That the plight of the referendum campaign, many other
:46:32. > :46:35.aspects of political life. There are issues when it comes down to the
:46:36. > :46:43.kind of denigration generally of a political class and public services
:46:44. > :46:46.that you are in it for yourself. Most MPs work long hours, they work
:46:47. > :46:53.hard at the cost of their family. In the case of Jo with tragic
:46:54. > :46:57.consequences. To end with, for those of us who didn't know Jo Cox, how do
:46:58. > :47:00.you think she would like to be remembered?
:47:01. > :47:05.She would want people to care about the causes she cared for, standing
:47:06. > :47:09.up for refugees are the poorest in the world, standing up for women in
:47:10. > :47:12.particular. We should all pay a bit more attention to the horrors that
:47:13. > :47:18.are happening to humans around this world, not just those on our streets
:47:19. > :47:22.but those in the Congo, Afghanistan and elsewhere. We are all one
:47:23. > :47:27.planet. She would want is to engage with those people and support them
:47:28. > :47:29.instead of building up walls and dividing ourselves. Thank you very
:47:30. > :47:31.much for coming in today. For the first time in nearly 60
:47:32. > :47:34.years Wales are taking part But as Chris Coleman's men prepare
:47:35. > :47:38.for their crucial final group game tomorrow,
:47:39. > :47:40.how can we make the most Speaking to this programme,
:47:41. > :47:43.Neville Southall, our most capped player said the team's participation
:47:44. > :47:46.in Euro 2016 should be seen as a "chance in a million" to invest
:47:47. > :47:49.in grassroots football. Picked up a little bit of turf out
:47:50. > :47:56.of his boot has Gareth Bale. Looks like a rugby union kick the
:47:57. > :48:05.way he has gone back. Stepped to the right,
:48:06. > :48:07.chest puffed out and strike. Gareth Bale with a moment
:48:08. > :48:12.of absolute magic. This is how the journey starts
:48:13. > :48:16.for any footballing star, having a kickabout with
:48:17. > :48:19.friends on a local pitch. Here, in the shadow of Gareth Bale's
:48:20. > :48:25.old school in Cardiff, these young players are practising their skills,
:48:26. > :48:29.keeping fit and having fun. I like playing football
:48:30. > :48:31.because it is fun. These boys have
:48:32. > :48:42.everything they need. Somewhere suitable and safe to play
:48:43. > :48:47.and enthusiastic coaches as well. According to our most capped player,
:48:48. > :48:51.this is what we need Will it be a variation
:48:52. > :48:56.on the theme this time? Neville Southall represented
:48:57. > :49:03.his country 92 times. He now coaches and works with young
:49:04. > :49:08.people and he believes this is the time to invest further
:49:09. > :49:12.in grassroots football. We've got a look at this as a one
:49:13. > :49:15.chance in a million, to change the way we do things in
:49:16. > :49:17.grassroots football. We need every kid in
:49:18. > :49:20.school playing football. We need every kid being given
:49:21. > :49:23.the dream so they can be the next Gareth Bale,
:49:24. > :49:26.Aaron Ramsey, Ashley Williams, We need to feed them that dream
:49:27. > :49:31.but then we need to give them the facilities to play on and then
:49:32. > :49:35.we need to give them a really good At this stage, the boys are really
:49:36. > :49:44.keen and there's loads of boys who'd like the opportunity,
:49:45. > :49:46.and girls, who would like the opportunity to play for teams
:49:47. > :49:48.but unfortunately there's just It is all done by volunteers
:49:49. > :49:52.and there's not enough people to run enough
:49:53. > :49:54.teams for the children. Much of the work developing
:49:55. > :49:57.the sport at a grassroots level is done by the FAW Trust
:49:58. > :50:02.who told us more people are playing The number of boys playing has
:50:03. > :50:07.increased by 15% over the past Over the same period, 7% more girls
:50:08. > :50:14.have taken up the sport. Since 2004, the number
:50:15. > :50:17.of disabled players has The Trust has now set itself more
:50:18. > :50:24.ambitious goals but in the meantime it too believes that more
:50:25. > :50:29.should be done to help support. We're hearing about up to three
:50:30. > :50:32.figure percentage increases in fees That is a real threat
:50:33. > :50:36.to grassroots football and grassroots sports so we need to make
:50:37. > :50:39.sure that we are working together, we are working with national and
:50:40. > :50:42.local government to make sure those pitches and facilities are
:50:43. > :50:46.accessible at a reasonable price. It is a really important
:50:47. > :50:48.area of work for less. This girls football session
:50:49. > :50:51.in Bangor is another example A big chunk of the organisations
:50:52. > :50:57.funding, ?1 million a year, comes from the Welsh Government,
:50:58. > :50:59.who told us it hopes the historic success of Chris Coleman's
:51:00. > :51:03.team will inspire people across Sports Wales who distribute
:51:04. > :51:08.the government's sports funding, said significant
:51:09. > :51:12.investment has been made in Welsh football and the current enthusiasm
:51:13. > :51:16.is a catalyst for growing the game In the meantime, Welsh fans continue
:51:17. > :51:26.to make their voices heard in France and across the world due
:51:27. > :51:31.to the global reach football can provide in a way other
:51:32. > :51:34.sports simply can't. That is an opportunity we mustn't
:51:35. > :51:39.ignore according to another former international
:51:40. > :51:41.following the team. It is so vital we take this
:51:42. > :51:43.opportunity, not just for sport actually,
:51:44. > :51:46.but for selling Wales to the world. The profile of Wales,
:51:47. > :51:49.without a shadow of doubt, will have been elevated to a really
:51:50. > :51:51.significant level as the That'll be the case if we go out
:51:52. > :51:56.in the group stage or we continue to the last 16 which I'm
:51:57. > :51:58.sure we will. We will have already done
:51:59. > :52:00.some fantastic work. And that work continues as Wales
:52:01. > :52:04.prepare for another The challenge back home is to make
:52:05. > :52:09.sure their efforts lead to success Now Wales, along with the rest
:52:10. > :52:20.of the UK, go to the polls on Thursday for what everyone agrees
:52:21. > :52:22.is a critical vote But many expat Welsh people
:52:23. > :52:27.will already have cast their votes. So what's their perspective
:52:28. > :52:31.on the vote here? Our economics correspondent
:52:32. > :52:33.Sarah Dickins packed her bags and headed off to Benidorm
:52:34. > :52:38.to find out. The bright lights and the glitz
:52:39. > :52:41.of the part of Benidorm that has been a magnet to Welsh
:52:42. > :52:43.tourists for decades. But as well as holiday-makers
:52:44. > :52:46.it has attracted many others who have left the Welsh
:52:47. > :52:49.homeland and now live permanently They are certainly talking about
:52:50. > :52:55.the EU referendum just days away. For Welsh expats doing business
:52:56. > :52:59.here in the centre of Benidorm it is about whose economic
:53:00. > :53:03.forecasts do you believe? Do you vote Remain so things stay
:53:04. > :53:08.broadly as now you hope, or do you vote Leave in the belief that trade,
:53:09. > :53:13.free trade, wins the day? 1.3 million UK citizens live
:53:14. > :53:18.in other EU countries. and more than 170,000
:53:19. > :53:27.live in France. Here in Spain, many of the Welsh
:53:28. > :53:31.expats concerns centre around how the vote could
:53:32. > :53:35.affect their lifestyles. Whether the pensions would still go
:53:36. > :53:38.up with inflation and if they'd still get free health care
:53:39. > :53:43.if the UK were to leave the EU. Will be relationship between the two
:53:44. > :54:00.nations change after the referendum? I am going to vote that we stay
:54:01. > :54:08.in on selfish reasons. Now I'm living in Spain
:54:09. > :54:14.you don't know, If you were living in Wales still,
:54:15. > :54:20.what do you think you'd be voting? I would definitely vote to come out
:54:21. > :54:23.so we can have an autonomous Great Britain again
:54:24. > :54:28.because that is what it was in A very different world from the buzz
:54:29. > :54:39.of Benidorm, more than 40 British expats play bowls here four times
:54:40. > :54:42.a week and five of them are Welsh. Those who have lived in Spain
:54:43. > :54:48.for fewer than 15 years have a vote. The more you think into it the more
:54:49. > :54:53.I feel we need to stay. Is it simply for your pocket it is
:54:54. > :54:58.better to stay? It is better for my
:54:59. > :55:03.pocket but I think for I think people are basing it all
:55:04. > :55:10.on people coming into the country I don't think it is
:55:11. > :55:16.going to be that bad. I think it is time that Britain took
:55:17. > :55:25.back its decision-making. The EU seems to be taking over too
:55:26. > :55:34.much of our justice system. What about those working in Spain
:55:35. > :55:39.and the next generation of Howard Westcott from
:55:40. > :55:43.Neath is not confident if we were to leave the EU,
:55:44. > :55:46.countries would rush to sign trade The Brexit argument
:55:47. > :55:51.is that UK is so important to the Spanish economy
:55:52. > :55:53.in lots of different ways they would have to sign a deal
:55:54. > :55:55.that is similar But that is typical
:55:56. > :55:58.British mentality. These young students
:55:59. > :56:08.here are the next generation This generation don't look at things
:56:09. > :56:14.in terms of countries and whatever, they look
:56:15. > :56:17.at it in terms of where The polls suggest the result
:56:18. > :56:25.is finely balanced. While most Welsh expats
:56:26. > :56:29.across Europe will have voted by now, back home there are many
:56:30. > :56:32.who still haven't Well, joining me now to talk
:56:33. > :56:38.about the events of an awful week and throw forwards to Thursday's
:56:39. > :56:52.crucial vote is Nick Servini. Thanks for coming in. We heard a
:56:53. > :56:56.little bit about it there earlier. Considering what happened last week,
:56:57. > :57:00.the death of Jo Cox, can we expect the last few days of campaigning to
:57:01. > :57:05.be a little bit different? A little bit more respectful? I agree. I
:57:06. > :57:10.don't think you can have an event like that and not have an impact. We
:57:11. > :57:14.will have the recall of Parliament tomorrow and we will see the huge
:57:15. > :57:18.example of MPs unifying together because from their perspective, they
:57:19. > :57:22.would think an attack on one MP is an attack on all of them. That is
:57:23. > :57:27.bound to permeate into the debates for the rest of the week. The
:57:28. > :57:33.individual circumstances in this horrifying incident in Yorkshire is
:57:34. > :57:39.subject to judicial process. It has backed the debates about the tone of
:57:40. > :57:47.public life. It has been reflected in comments this morning. Peter Hain
:57:48. > :57:49.has accused the leave side and the Retallick on immigration as
:57:50. > :57:54.contributing to this aggressive debates and the tone of the debate.
:57:55. > :57:59.-- Retallick. Michael Gove told Andrew Marr this morning he is not
:58:00. > :58:03.against immigration, he wants control of immigration and
:58:04. > :58:07.admittedly in sensitive circumstances, made the case for
:58:08. > :58:12.rigorous debate as part of freedom of speech. I don't suppose it is an
:58:13. > :58:16.easy answer. Maybe the media as part of the problem here, focusing on the
:58:17. > :58:22.confrontational element of politics and certainly social media as you
:58:23. > :58:28.touched on and many others have as well, has a major role in what has
:58:29. > :58:30.happened. Tomorrow, we know MPs will be in Westminster so maybe
:58:31. > :58:35.campaigning won't be at full throttle. Tuesday and Wednesday, the
:58:36. > :58:43.last two days of campaigning, what can we expect? A frenetic 48 hours.
:58:44. > :58:48.An extraordinary state of affairs. What has happened is the momentum
:58:49. > :58:53.has come to a huge pause as a result of what has happened. I was out with
:58:54. > :58:57.the Leave campaign in Caerphilly on Thursday morning before the
:58:58. > :59:04.seriousness of the situation became camp Aaron -- a balance. There was a
:59:05. > :59:09.sense of momentum from the Leave side. I spoke to Chris Grayling and
:59:10. > :59:12.said, what do you need to do now in the last week of campaigning? He
:59:13. > :59:17.said, stop people having second thoughts. You could think the past
:59:18. > :59:22.couple of days people haven't had the bombardment that we are used to
:59:23. > :59:26.and maybe they have been stewing over things and having those second
:59:27. > :59:30.thoughts. The counter view is towards the tail end of last week I
:59:31. > :59:34.spoke to another senior Welsh politicians on the Remain side,
:59:35. > :59:40.really sceptical about their chances. They have been overwhelmed
:59:41. > :59:49.at times by the opposition that is out there, and this final sort of
:59:50. > :59:53.Fleury we will have now who is to say the leave can pick up the
:59:54. > :59:58.momentum where they left off? Duke get the sense that is a body of
:59:59. > :00:02.voters out there and decided still who are still waiting for this
:00:03. > :00:09.golden fact that will say, that is the one. That make my mind up. It
:00:10. > :00:13.possibly isn't out there. Let's break the bad news to them, there is
:00:14. > :00:17.no single bit of information that'll make it abundantly clear. We're
:00:18. > :00:24.talking about the future, we are talking about predictions of what
:00:25. > :00:29.can happen. As a result that perfect fact doesn't exist and it is what
:00:30. > :00:35.people are craving for. What they are not going in for is the single
:00:36. > :00:41.fact but the single area. The Remain side, they say you can go around the
:00:42. > :00:44.houses on sovereignty EU regulations, even immigration but
:00:45. > :00:48.when it comes down to it people vote on the state of their mortgages,
:00:49. > :00:54.jobs, economic security. On the Leave side, they are focusing on the
:00:55. > :01:03.one area birth control. This fundamental belief that they see
:01:04. > :01:07.people crave and want overall control of their destiny including
:01:08. > :01:12.borders, that is where immigration comes in. It is an appealing
:01:13. > :01:17.message. This is come down to something as simple as those who
:01:18. > :01:24.back Remain via more towards the economic sector and those who back
:01:25. > :01:29.Leave, theatre mods immigration. Is that overly simplistic as Mike
:01:30. > :01:33.possibly better think it is an accurate area. We've got all these
:01:34. > :01:38.undecideds. Both sides are saying at least a fifth still haven't made up
:01:39. > :01:43.their mind. On the Remain side they think it is up to a third. Most of
:01:44. > :01:48.those undecideds are they say adding the South Wales Valleys. I would
:01:49. > :01:51.expect in that final flurry that is where a lot of the concentration of
:01:52. > :01:53.the campaigning will take place. Thank you very much like coming in
:01:54. > :01:54.today. Don't forget, you follow
:01:55. > :01:56.all the latest on Twitter. But for now that's all from me,
:01:57. > :02:07.time to go back to Andrew. So, we're entering the final stage
:02:08. > :02:19.of this referendum campaign and it's What do the campaigns have
:02:20. > :02:24.left up their sleeves, and what will be the impact
:02:25. > :02:46.of the papers and Parliament is recalled tomorrow to
:02:47. > :02:51.pay tribute to Jo Cox. That will influence the campaign and take our
:02:52. > :02:57.eyes away from it. We have David Cameron tonight on question Time on
:02:58. > :03:02.BBC One and the big debate from Wembley on BBC One on Tuesday night.
:03:03. > :03:07.How will the final couple of days be? What should we be looking for?
:03:08. > :03:12.It will be more muted than otherwise had it not been for the killing of
:03:13. > :03:16.Jo Cox. I think there is no appetite on either side to return to some of
:03:17. > :03:24.the vociferous nurse of the past month or two. Muted but also quite
:03:25. > :03:27.settled -- the vociferous nature. The campaign is decided in that we
:03:28. > :03:34.know what the issues are but the ultimate question is do you dislike
:03:35. > :03:39.immigration more than you like economic calm and that is the test
:03:40. > :03:46.on Thursday. What impresses me about the Wembley Arena debate on Tuesday
:03:47. > :03:51.is who Remain have chosen as their three debaters. 2-mac of them are
:03:52. > :03:58.clearly designed to pitch to Labour voters, Sadiq Khan... We can see
:03:59. > :04:05.them on the screen. Vadis O'Grady and Sadiq Khan are clearly designed
:04:06. > :04:12.to appeal to the Labour voters -- Frances O'Grady. Even Ruth Davidson
:04:13. > :04:18.is a centrist conservative and perhaps better to appeal to Scottish
:04:19. > :04:32.Labour Party voters. You look on the Leave side, Boris Johnson, and Ryan
:04:33. > :04:40.Ledson -- Andrea Leadsom. Looking at that, which is the stronger team? I
:04:41. > :04:44.think the Leave team, if that does not sound too partisan, in terms of
:04:45. > :04:50.dynamism and vitality of personality. There may be some
:04:51. > :04:56.surprises, remaining Ake might put some fresh faces but there are no
:04:57. > :05:02.fresh arguments. There is only now a semantic problem. This item is now
:05:03. > :05:07.anti-uncontrolled immigration and that is an important factor, this is
:05:08. > :05:12.not about uncertainty in an absolute sense because there is uncertainty
:05:13. > :05:19.on both sides. It has now got the point where it is a question of who
:05:20. > :05:25.gets the best formulation. Anything can happen in a big debate,
:05:26. > :05:33.particularly one with 6000 people being there. If I was a Remain
:05:34. > :05:39.strategist, I would be worried that team is a bit underpowered for this
:05:40. > :05:44.big event. I would agree. We might all know Frances O'Grady but I'm not
:05:45. > :05:50.sure anybody us in the country might unless you are a team of of the TUC.
:05:51. > :05:56.Leave a gone with the same team that they thought did well in the eye
:05:57. > :06:00.debate -- in the ITV debate. The main have gone with three different
:06:01. > :06:06.characters. It suggests that they have some new tactics. The last time
:06:07. > :06:11.when we saw Amber Rudd exec are going viciously for Boris Johnson,
:06:12. > :06:17.this one is all about getting out your base vote. People know the
:06:18. > :06:22.arguments, even if you're not been tuning into it has been flooding in
:06:23. > :06:26.subconsciously. It is about motivating your supporters to go to
:06:27. > :06:35.the polls will stop one thing on the Remain choice, Ruth Davidson. We set
:06:36. > :06:42.up a debate of our own, a cab that goes round and interviews people,
:06:43. > :06:47.and we wanted, Ruth Davidson was put up and we could not get a single
:06:48. > :06:53.person in the Leave campaign to debate her. Because they were
:06:54. > :06:57.frightened of her? Yes. She is exceptionally good and smart, when
:06:58. > :07:01.it comes to those one-liners, and if she can pull one off against
:07:02. > :07:06.somebody like Boris Johnson, that could do... But there could be a
:07:07. > :07:10.danger. Let me put it diplomatically, she is not Boris
:07:11. > :07:16.Johnson's biggest fan and Boris Johnson already got attacked by
:07:17. > :07:21.Amber Rudd in the ITV debate. If we go down that road again, it could
:07:22. > :07:25.rebound on them. You could argue that what Amber Rudd got wrong was
:07:26. > :07:29.the tone with which she attacked Boris Johnson and a more skilful
:07:30. > :07:34.politician, like Ruth Davidson, could pull off the same line but
:07:35. > :07:39.deliver it in a better way. The point about scripting is
:07:40. > :07:42.interesting. I was talking to somebody in number ten a couple of
:07:43. > :07:47.days ago who were saying that when you briefed politicians you usually
:07:48. > :07:50.have to give them the killer line on the opponent but with Ruth Davidson
:07:51. > :07:55.you have to do nothing. She is across all the details and she can
:07:56. > :08:00.come up with a venomous whip at the end of a sentence. One thing also
:08:01. > :08:04.very clear from this Remain team is that they are worried about Labour
:08:05. > :08:13.voters who will be key to this and if they are so angry about scare
:08:14. > :08:17.tactics and immigration, they will bring victory to the Leave campaign
:08:18. > :08:20.and that is what people are worried about. This is an identity crisis
:08:21. > :08:27.for the Labour Party, even more than the Conservative Party. David
:08:28. > :08:35.Cameron is on a Question Time special tonight. Michael Gove did
:08:36. > :08:39.one last week. Life programmes with an audience are always tricky but
:08:40. > :08:44.David Cameron knows how to do these things. This is his forte, the
:08:45. > :08:50.medium of his choice which is precisely why it is happening. What
:08:51. > :08:58.will be most interesting tonight is his tone he chooses. The post Jo Cox
:08:59. > :09:01.tragedy age of trying to be nicer to each other, personally I don't think
:09:02. > :09:08.George Osborne succeeded this morning. He can't really do
:09:09. > :09:14.uplifting, happy politics. Even Paddy Ashdown fell into the trap!
:09:15. > :09:17.Two whole years of British politics we have spent campaigning and we
:09:18. > :09:22.haven't stopped, the Scottish referendum into the general
:09:23. > :09:27.election. And the Prime Minister is exhausting. Negative campaigning
:09:28. > :09:32.works. If the PM does the uplifting stuff, that might work better than
:09:33. > :09:35.the scare stories. There is a lot of talk about politicians attacking
:09:36. > :09:39.each other but there is a middle ground about how they are attacking
:09:40. > :09:41.the electorate. The idea of terrifying pages into thinking that
:09:42. > :09:46.the triple lock on their pensions will have to be withdrawn, the
:09:47. > :09:52.sacred promise that Cameron made, if they vote the wrong way, that was
:09:53. > :09:55.disgusting. There is a lot of attempt to put the fear of God up
:09:56. > :10:00.the electorate which has been extremely unattractive. We have had
:10:01. > :10:03.newspaper endorsements, the editorials have come out as usual
:10:04. > :10:07.the Sunday before an important election. The main have the Mail on
:10:08. > :10:14.Sunday, the Observer, the mirror, the people. Leave have the sun on
:10:15. > :10:19.Sunday, the Sunday Telegraph, the Sunday Times and the Sunday express.
:10:20. > :10:22.It is fashionable to say that editorials don't matter but
:10:23. > :10:27.politicians still crave for them to come down on their side. They must
:10:28. > :10:34.have some importance. But if we are heading to a very close result,
:10:35. > :10:40.51-49, even a minimal impact it a significant impact. They matter in
:10:41. > :10:43.this referendum but what is interesting is the way that some
:10:44. > :10:49.newspaper houses have split with the times being pro-leave, the Daily
:10:50. > :10:53.Mail wanting to leave but the Mail on Sunday wanting to remain will
:10:54. > :10:58.stop a lot of people will be cynical and say that these are newspaper
:10:59. > :11:01.proprietors covering their bets. I think it is a good reflection on the
:11:02. > :11:05.industry and the editors being given their head to decide a large
:11:06. > :11:15.existential question for the country. When we go into the vote on
:11:16. > :11:24.Friday morning, on Thursday morning, where will we be? Will we know the
:11:25. > :11:27.result? As it was in 1975. Or will it be like the general election last
:11:28. > :11:31.year when even those who thought they knew the result didn't? I think
:11:32. > :11:37.it will be a very long night and we might not know the result until the
:11:38. > :11:43.same time on Friday morning. Polls are polls, snapshots, maybe there
:11:44. > :11:47.are shy people on both sides. The key is getting your vote out. I
:11:48. > :11:51.genuinely have no idea which way it will go. Whichever campaign can put
:11:52. > :12:00.more of their people through the polling station wins. What I'm not
:12:01. > :12:03.clever about, does Remain continue to put about the terrible economic
:12:04. > :12:09.consequences if we leave from their point of view? And does Leave carry
:12:10. > :12:13.on about immigration? Are we going to get more of the same with maybe a
:12:14. > :12:20.different tone after what has happened but fundamentally the same
:12:21. > :12:25.things. Those are the headlines but there are subtle argument and I wish
:12:26. > :12:28.they were getting more attention. I wish the Leave campaign were
:12:29. > :12:35.stressing more the uncertainty economically of the EU. It may be
:12:36. > :12:41.too late. It has been said but it is not a headline. We have them
:12:42. > :12:48.questions about the risks of remaining. But the media attention
:12:49. > :12:53.has been on the risks. You would expect the change proposition to be
:12:54. > :13:00.the one that embodies the risk. The EU is a volatile and some would say
:13:01. > :13:08.failing project. I understand that. That is your point of view. How will
:13:09. > :13:18.we vote? To stay in by a margin of 55-45. That would be healthy. I
:13:19. > :13:22.think it will be Leave by a squeak. Remain. We will bring them back next
:13:23. > :13:24.week to see if they are right. The Daily Politics will be
:13:25. > :13:27.back at noon tomorrow, and the Sunday Politics will be back
:13:28. > :13:31.for a special extended show to take in all the news following the result
:13:32. > :13:33.of the EU referendum. Remember, if it's Sunday,
:13:34. > :14:16.it's the Sunday Politics. Finding out this story
:14:17. > :14:18.matches any pride I had Marking the centenary of the Somme
:14:19. > :14:23.through personal stories brings new focus
:14:24. > :14:25.to what happened there. It puts the human element
:14:26. > :14:29.into war, really.