:00:37. > :00:42.Jeremy Corbyn will be challenged for the Labour Party leadership
:00:43. > :00:45.by his former shadow cabinet colleague, Angela Eagle.
:00:46. > :00:48.So what makes her so sure she can win?
:00:49. > :00:54.She's the favoured candidate of Tory MPs, but will Theresa May win over
:00:55. > :00:58.the party's grassroots to become the next Prime Minister?
:00:59. > :01:01.And if she makes it to Number 10, what will her premiership be like?
:01:02. > :01:05.We'll hear from May-supporter, Chris Grayling.
:01:06. > :01:08.And after two tumultuous weeks following the referendum result,
:01:09. > :01:11.a leading Remain campaign insider gives us her candid account
:01:12. > :01:21.Plaid Cymru say Tony Blair should come before MPs to answer for Iraq.
:01:22. > :01:38.And as UK labour faces a leadership challenge, what next
:01:39. > :01:44.And with me - Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Isabel Oakeshott to
:01:45. > :01:47.help guide us through the political maelstrom - they'll be tweeting
:01:48. > :01:52.throughout the programme using the hashtag #bbcsp.
:01:53. > :01:55.The battle to take over from David Cameron as Conservative Party
:01:56. > :01:57.leader and Prime Minister has rapidly moved into its final phase
:01:58. > :02:00.- a vote of Conservative Party members who must choose
:02:01. > :02:02.between the Home Secretary and remain supporter Theresa May,
:02:03. > :02:04.and the business minister and Leave campaigner Andrea Leadsom.
:02:05. > :02:06.Speaking at the launch of her campaign, Theresa May said
:02:07. > :02:12.she wanted to unite the Conservative Party - and the country.
:02:13. > :02:15.If ever there was a time for a Prime Minister who is ready
:02:16. > :02:19.and able to do the job from day one, this is it.
:02:20. > :02:23.We have immediate work to do, to restore political stability
:02:24. > :02:28.To bring together the party and the country.
:02:29. > :02:30.And to negotiate a sensible and orderly departure
:02:31. > :02:37.But more than that, we have a mission to make Britain
:02:38. > :02:40.a country that works, not for the privileged and not
:02:41. > :02:47.for the few, but for every one of our citizens.
:02:48. > :02:49.I've been joined by the leader of the commons, Chris Grayling,
:02:50. > :02:52.who was one of four cabinet ministers to campaign to leave
:02:53. > :02:54.the EU but who is now supporting Theresa May -
:02:55. > :03:09.Why are you supporting Mrs May as a Leaver? The key thing is having a
:03:10. > :03:14.person who is right for the job. David Cameron chose to step aside, I
:03:15. > :03:18.regret that. We need someone to step into his shoes in whom I have
:03:19. > :03:22.confidence that they will deliver Brexit. I have known Theresa for a
:03:23. > :03:26.long time. She is a determined politician. Having got a mandate
:03:27. > :03:31.from the public to deliver Brexit, she will do that. What assurances
:03:32. > :03:37.have you sought from her? I have sought assurances that she means
:03:38. > :03:41.Brexit is Brexit. The country has spoken. The country has given us a
:03:42. > :03:45.clear direction to follow. The next Prime Minister has to follow that
:03:46. > :03:50.Matt and I am confident that Theresa May is committed to that. But Brexit
:03:51. > :03:58.can mean one of several things. They're of a. So what do you say to
:03:59. > :04:02.Tory twos, who were on your side, that she will water down the Brexit
:04:03. > :04:08.terms? That is not right. It is not just me, we have a range of Tory
:04:09. > :04:13.Leavers who are backing her, because we think she has the weight and
:04:14. > :04:15.experience to deliver. But I am not sure what assurances you have got
:04:16. > :04:22.that she will deliver as you would want her to. For example, can you
:04:23. > :04:26.guarantee to our viewers that she will not settle for a British
:04:27. > :04:32.version of Norway's relationship with the EU, or Switzerland's
:04:33. > :04:38.relationship? We have said all along that we want a UK solution. It is
:04:39. > :04:42.not about trying to replicate someone else. We have a clear
:04:43. > :04:47.mandate to end the principle of unfettered free movement in the UK
:04:48. > :04:53.from elsewhere in the European Union. We saw Lily 200,000 people
:04:54. > :04:58.arrive in the UK last year. The British public want that to change.
:04:59. > :05:04.Theresa May palmist "Control of free movement. That needn't be the same
:05:05. > :05:08.as the end of free movement. What does she mean? That is what we
:05:09. > :05:13.campaigned on for four and a half months, taking back control. What I
:05:14. > :05:17.find unacceptable is that we cannot control the flow of people into the
:05:18. > :05:20.country. There will be times when we need to recruit particular skills
:05:21. > :05:25.and we need to allow people to move within businesses. We need to have a
:05:26. > :05:29.managed system. It is all about control. It is about our government
:05:30. > :05:34.being able to decide when, how and where the number of people who can
:05:35. > :05:38.come and live and work in the UK. But for some EU citizens, would
:05:39. > :05:44.there still be an automatic right to compare? It will depend on what our
:05:45. > :05:48.rules are. The whole point is that it is about control. At the moment,
:05:49. > :05:52.we cannot set limits on the number of people who live and work here.
:05:53. > :05:58.The clear mandate from the British public, something that Theresa
:05:59. > :06:03.recognised and said so in her opening speech last week we have to
:06:04. > :06:08.take back control of our migration. But we don't know what that means.
:06:09. > :06:12.It means our parliament being able to set limits on the number of
:06:13. > :06:18.people who can live and work here. What sort of limits? That will be
:06:19. > :06:22.decided depending on whether we have skills needs, housing shortages and
:06:23. > :06:25.circumstances. None of us think we will erect barricades at Dover and
:06:26. > :06:31.nobody can ever live and work in the UK. But it is fundamental that
:06:32. > :06:36.ultimate control should reside with our government. Why do you trust has
:06:37. > :06:39.me on free movement when after six years at the Home Office, she
:06:40. > :06:46.couldn't even get non-EU debt migration below 100,000, which was
:06:47. > :06:50.the promise, never mind overall net migration? First of all, we spent
:06:51. > :06:56.five of those six years in coalition with the Liberal Democrats. She was
:06:57. > :06:59.not stopped from doing anything. We have just passed our first
:07:00. > :07:03.conservative only immigration act that will allow us to close the bank
:07:04. > :07:07.accounts and taking away the driving licences of people who overstate.
:07:08. > :07:13.One of the problems is people who come here legitimately for a short
:07:14. > :07:17.time, but never go. But she was so far out. Net migration was three
:07:18. > :07:20.times the target she agreed to six years ago. Why would you trust her
:07:21. > :07:26.to get it right when so far, she's got it wrong? If you look at the
:07:27. > :07:31.flow of migrants from inside the European Union, she had no ability
:07:32. > :07:35.to control that. But she has not controlled those from outside. We
:07:36. > :07:37.have just passed our first Conservative only immigration act.
:07:38. > :07:44.There have been limits to what we could do in coalition. As Theresa
:07:45. > :07:47.May herself said the other day, it is difficult because people are
:07:48. > :07:51.constantly looking for new ways around our system. I believe the
:07:52. > :07:58.acts we past two months ago will make a difference. Were our borders
:07:59. > :08:03.safer under Mrs May than they were in 2010? Our borders are safe in
:08:04. > :08:08.terms of counterterrorism. What has she done to make us safer? A huge
:08:09. > :08:12.amount has been done to protect our borders. In Calais, we now have a
:08:13. > :08:17.much better system of border control. We have been able to resist
:08:18. > :08:20.enormous pressure from people who want to come in illegally. What has
:08:21. > :08:28.she done to make British borders safer? She'd traduced new measures
:08:29. > :08:30.on the immigration front -- introduced new measures. She
:08:31. > :08:34.negotiated international agreements so that Abu Qatada was ported to
:08:35. > :08:41.Jordan. In my view, she has done a huge amount to improve the security
:08:42. > :08:46.services. As Home Secretary, she is responsible for MI5. They have done
:08:47. > :08:52.a fantastic job protecting us. Will she rule out a second referendum?
:08:53. > :08:57.There is no question of a second referendum. One of her supporters,
:08:58. > :09:00.Dominic Grieve, says people can change their minds. We are all clear
:09:01. > :09:04.that there is not going to be a second referendum. We can't just say
:09:05. > :09:08.to the British public, we don't like what you said, so we are going to
:09:09. > :09:14.ask again. Those of us who campaigned for Leave would not serve
:09:15. > :09:21.in a government that chucked away the first result and decided to have
:09:22. > :09:25.another go. Speaking of the campaign, do you regard the promises
:09:26. > :09:34.vote leaves made during the referendum as sacrosanct? I said to
:09:35. > :09:38.you that a campaign group can only make recommendations. But you made a
:09:39. > :09:41.number of promises. You promised explicitly that the status of EU
:09:42. > :09:46.citizens already here would not change. Mrs May is not promising
:09:47. > :09:51.that. I cannot conceive of a situation where we want to end the
:09:52. > :09:57.rights of EU citizens who are here to not remain. There are always
:09:58. > :10:02.individual circumstances... But she is talking about them being a
:10:03. > :10:06.bargaining chip. You said during the campaign, there will be no change
:10:07. > :10:10.for EU citizens already lawfully resident in the UK. Mrs May is not
:10:11. > :10:15.saying that. For those who have been more than five years in the UK, that
:10:16. > :10:19.is legally the case. But we want to make sure we can protect our own
:10:20. > :10:24.citizens in other EU countries. It is right that a UK Government should
:10:25. > :10:28.have its own system. But during the campaign, you never said there will
:10:29. > :10:32.be no change to EU citizens here, provided the EU looks after our
:10:33. > :10:37.citizens over there. That was never a condition. Now are you saying it
:10:38. > :10:40.is? I don't think there will be any change on either side. Everyone will
:10:41. > :10:44.take a grown-up approach might it would be too damaging to do
:10:45. > :10:52.otherwise. But we must look after the interests of our own citizens.
:10:53. > :10:54.So why doesn't she say that? She says she doesn't want to agree
:10:55. > :10:59.anything until she sees how they treat our citizens. Are you
:11:00. > :11:04.comfortable with the line she has taken? The only people who support
:11:05. > :11:09.her on this are the BNP. She has said what I have said. I am
:11:10. > :11:13.expecting all it is except those who have committed criminal offences to
:11:14. > :11:18.be able to stay -- all EU citizens. That is right and proper, but we
:11:19. > :11:25.must make sure we can look after the rights of new cases and is. Has Mrs
:11:26. > :11:30.May guaranteed to you that we will be out of the EU by the next general
:11:31. > :11:34.election? She has said we will trigger article 50 around the end of
:11:35. > :11:38.this year. There is then a two-year time frame and the next general
:11:39. > :11:46.election is 2020. So I can't see any circumstance in which we would not
:11:47. > :11:49.leave by then. Gone by 2020. Chris Grayling, thank you.
:11:50. > :11:51.After a protracted campaign of resignations, a massive vote
:11:52. > :11:54.of no confidence from his MPs, and an attempt by his deputy
:11:55. > :11:57.to negotiate some sort of compromise deal with the unions,
:11:58. > :12:05.it's now clear the Jeremy Corbyn will face a leadership challenge.
:12:06. > :12:11.Some suspected it might fizzle out, but Angela Eagle has finally
:12:12. > :12:16.announced she will go for the top job after all, saying she wants to
:12:17. > :12:22.explain her vision for the country. It comes after Labour's deputy
:12:23. > :12:25.leader Tom Watson called off a debate over Jeremy Corbyn's future,
:12:26. > :12:29.saying there was no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise
:12:30. > :12:33.because of this to Corbyn's refusal to stand down. That provoked an
:12:34. > :12:39.angry response from Unite leader Len McCluskey, who said Tom Watson's
:12:40. > :12:43.actions today can only look like an act of sabotage, fraught with peril
:12:44. > :12:47.for the future of the Labour Party. So what happens now? Angela Eagle
:12:48. > :12:53.needs to get the backing of 20% of MPs and MEPs. The magic and Amber is
:12:54. > :12:57.currently 51. There is also the prospect of another senior Labour
:12:58. > :13:02.figure like Owen Smith throwing his hat into the ring. The big question
:13:03. > :13:05.remains over whether Jeremy Corbyn automatically gets onto the ballot,
:13:06. > :13:09.or whether he needs to get 51 nominations himself, a difficult
:13:10. > :13:16.task, given that the Labour leader lost the vote of no-confidence among
:13:17. > :13:20.his MPs by 172 votes to 40. But if he does get on the ballot paper, it
:13:21. > :13:24.is Angela Eagle who has the difficult job. Over a quarter of a
:13:25. > :13:28.million people voted for Mr Corbyn in the last Labour leadership
:13:29. > :13:32.election. Nearly 60% of the vote. Since the EU referendum, nearly
:13:33. > :13:38.130,000 people have joined the Labour Party. But it is unclear how
:13:39. > :13:41.many of them want to help or hinder Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.
:13:42. > :13:42.Jeremy Corbyn appeared on the Andrew Marr programme
:13:43. > :13:45.a little earlier on BBC One - and was in no mood
:13:46. > :13:48.Why time-limit a leadership when I've been elected
:13:49. > :13:51.by a very large number of members and supporters
:13:52. > :13:59.an election somewhere results in a different leader,
:14:00. > :14:02.But I would be irresponsible if I walked away
:14:03. > :14:05.from a mandate that I was given and a responsibility I was given.
:14:06. > :14:08.I ask colleagues to respect that as well.
:14:09. > :14:22.Why are you challenging Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour leadership? I
:14:23. > :14:27.think it's clear that he has lost the confidence of MPs in the
:14:28. > :14:30.parliamentary party. Tom Watson, Howard deputy leader, who has his
:14:31. > :14:35.own mandate Rosie Winterton, the Chief Whip, John Quire, the chair of
:14:36. > :14:40.the Parliamentary Labour Party and a friend of Jeremy's, have been going
:14:41. > :14:44.to try to say to him that he needs the confidence of the Parliamentary
:14:45. > :14:48.party to continue. He's not listening. You can't leave behind an
:14:49. > :14:52.office door. Maybe he is not listening because he has a huge
:14:53. > :14:57.mandate from the party membership. As Labour leader, he has won every
:14:58. > :15:00.by-election and he has won the London mayoral election, the largest
:15:01. > :15:04.party in the local governor elections. Why wouldn't he carry on?
:15:05. > :15:10.We lost seats in the local government elections when we have a
:15:11. > :15:14.Conservative government. We should be doing better. Polling shows that
:15:15. > :15:19.we are 7% behind the Conservatives, even after all the tumult they have
:15:20. > :15:25.been through and more importantly, we lost the EU referendum.
:15:26. > :15:32.That was not his fault. No, but he wasn't connecting with Labour voters
:15:33. > :15:36.and he did not put the argument across, and so I think we need a
:15:37. > :15:42.strengthened Labour Party and an opposition which can unite so we can
:15:43. > :15:46.heal the country. Unfortunately I don't think Jeremy Corbyn can do
:15:47. > :15:55.that job. Other than Trident, what are the major policy differences?
:15:56. > :15:59.I'm on the left, any party IDs will be anti-austerity, what has happened
:16:00. > :16:05.in our heartlands, they have been hit by six years of Conservative
:16:06. > :16:13.cuts -- any party I lead. That is Jeremy Corbyn, that is his position,
:16:14. > :16:18.as well, what are the differences? I want to be a strong united
:16:19. > :16:21.opposition to get into government. Jeremy was asked in that interview
:16:22. > :16:26.three times whether he thought he could win a general election and he
:16:27. > :16:31.did not say yes. For our supporters and for the people we came into
:16:32. > :16:34.politics to represent, we need a Labour Party that can position
:16:35. > :16:39.itself as a strong united opposition and win a general election. In your
:16:40. > :16:44.view that is having a leader as a winner, but what are the major
:16:45. > :16:50.policy differences? I don't think Jeremy has managed to get across a
:16:51. > :16:54.strategy for winning. I'm on the left and my politics came out of
:16:55. > :17:01.what happened when I was growing up when my parents, they were prevented
:17:02. > :17:07.from fulfilling their opportunities because we had Labour governments I
:17:08. > :17:11.was able to fulfil mind, and I want a Labour Party that can deliver
:17:12. > :17:18.that. Jeremy does not talk about that. We will move on. He is the
:17:19. > :17:20.incumbent leader, should he not be on the ballot against you as a
:17:21. > :17:38.right? The Labour Party rules and the way it is done, and Jeremy
:17:39. > :17:48.Chardy know this, Tony Benn challenged Neil Kinnock in 1988 --
:17:49. > :17:51.Jeremy should know this. It is not clear he had to do this. Neil
:17:52. > :17:56.Kinnock can't remember if he had to do this, or whether he did it to
:17:57. > :18:01.show the strength. Putting aside the roles, most people watching this
:18:02. > :18:05.programme, not just Jeremy Corbyn fans, they will find it strange that
:18:06. > :18:09.the man who won the leadership fairly and decisively, now
:18:10. > :18:13.challenged by you, is not automatically allowed to defend his
:18:14. > :18:16.title? That is not clear from the Labour Party rules, the National
:18:17. > :18:22.executive committee will make a decision on that. Anyone who aspires
:18:23. > :18:27.to lead the Parliamentary party who can't get 51 members, 20% of the
:18:28. > :18:31.Parliamentary party, to back them, they are not going to be able to do
:18:32. > :18:35.the job properly and we are in challenging times, the Brexit vote,
:18:36. > :18:40.a government which has gone missing in action. We need a strong lead
:18:41. > :18:43.from the Labour Party if we are going to protect our communities who
:18:44. > :18:49.are going to be the hardest hit. Nothing of that lead is coming from
:18:50. > :18:54.Jeremy at the moment. You are the self-styled party of fairness, don't
:18:55. > :18:58.you think it will offend against natural justice against most
:18:59. > :19:02.people's idea of fairness if the incumbent who is challenged by you
:19:03. > :19:09.is not allowed to fight you in an election? Work that seem incredible?
:19:10. > :19:15.Forget the rules, just offends against fairness. I don't know what
:19:16. > :19:20.the outcome is going to be of the decision-making process. I'm ready
:19:21. > :19:25.to fight a leadership challenge and have debates about the future of our
:19:26. > :19:30.party with anyone, Jeremy or anyone else who seeks to stand. Len
:19:31. > :19:36.McCluskey, the most important person in the Labour Party, perhaps. Not
:19:37. > :19:41.say that. I have a lot of respect him, but that is a big perhaps. He
:19:42. > :19:48.says keeping Jeremy Corbyn of the ballot would cause lasting division
:19:49. > :19:52.in the party. It would. This is not about the Labour Party being split,
:19:53. > :19:57.this is about it being an effective and united opposition to make our
:19:58. > :20:00.democracy work so we can challenge is Conservative government which has
:20:01. > :20:06.done such damage with the Brexit vote. I want to say that if you
:20:07. > :20:11.think we should have a strong and effective Labour Party and a strong
:20:12. > :20:16.democracy, challenging the Conservatives, join the Labour Party
:20:17. > :20:21.now. Do it today, you can do it online. 130,000 new members have
:20:22. > :20:28.joined Labour since the referendum. Who are they? The Labour Party
:20:29. > :20:34.nationally knows who they are. Have they been vetted? I have no idea at
:20:35. > :20:40.what the Labour Party office are doing about the new members. But it
:20:41. > :20:45.is important that people who think that we need a strong opposition,
:20:46. > :20:52.jaundiced battle now, joined the Labour Party, make us stronger --
:20:53. > :20:56.join this battle now. The 130,000 people who have joined already, they
:20:57. > :20:59.should be allowed to vote? That is a matter for the National if sect of
:21:00. > :21:05.committee to decide, they were in the past. -- National executive
:21:06. > :21:11.committee. There is no point in them joining if they can't. We opened up
:21:12. > :21:19.the ?3 membership which was a feature the last campaign. 150,000
:21:20. > :21:22.people are going to be picking the next Conservative Prime Minister, we
:21:23. > :21:27.have had nearly that number joining in the last week. Jeremy Corbyn
:21:28. > :21:33.would say he won by over 235,000 voting for him. You expect to be the
:21:34. > :21:40.only challenger? I have no idea. What about Owen Smith? We have
:21:41. > :21:42.spoken, but not recently, I've got no idea, I'm concentrating on
:21:43. > :21:48.launching my campaign which I will be doing tomorrow. It would be
:21:49. > :21:53.absurd for you and Owen Smith or someone else from the middle of the
:21:54. > :22:00.party, the moderate left, to split the anti-Corbyn vote? We have got to
:22:01. > :22:05.get on with doing our planning and see what happens in the future. I'm
:22:06. > :22:09.concentrating on getting my campaign up and running, launching it
:22:10. > :22:14.tomorrow, and joining a battle to have a stronger and united Labour
:22:15. > :22:22.Party which can give hope back to our country. You voted for the Iraq
:22:23. > :22:26.war. Do you regret that? I do, and if I had known what I know now, I
:22:27. > :22:30.would not have supported it. The important thing from the Chilcot
:22:31. > :22:36.Report is that we learn the lessons of that so those mistakes can never
:22:37. > :22:39.be made again in the future. John Prescott this morning, he also voted
:22:40. > :22:46.for it, he says he now regards the war as illegal. Chilcot has not said
:22:47. > :22:51.that. I'm asking you. It is important that we learn the lessons.
:22:52. > :22:55.Do you think it was illegal? The evidence at the time and the
:22:56. > :22:57.Attorney General's opinion at the time was not to that effect and it
:22:58. > :23:03.is no good trying to second-guess what happened subsequently. We need
:23:04. > :23:06.to learn the lessons and we need to make sure that if anything like that
:23:07. > :23:12.happens in the future we have more robust ways of testing these
:23:13. > :23:17.assertions, but I also think we have a country divided at the moment. You
:23:18. > :23:22.have said that. Very uncertain about the future. You have said that. We
:23:23. > :23:27.have got to address those problems. I understand that. But forgive me,
:23:28. > :23:32.we have not got much time, they will be a motion before Parliament next
:23:33. > :23:36.week holding Tony Blair for contempt of Parliament because of Iraq, how
:23:37. > :23:41.will you vote? I have not seen the motion yet. We have got to make
:23:42. > :23:46.certain that we don't spend our time in Parliament exacting revenge and I
:23:47. > :23:51.think Tony Blair has been put rightly through the mill about the
:23:52. > :23:56.decisions he took, the Chilcot Report did that, and I think we
:23:57. > :23:58.should... We would be far better at learning the lessons and making
:23:59. > :24:05.certain that we don't fall into the same mistakes if God forbid they
:24:06. > :24:11.should be a future occasion where these decisions are made. -- there.
:24:12. > :24:14.Final question, you talk about uniting Labour and the country,
:24:15. > :24:20.taking on the Tories, but if you lose and Jeremy Corbyn wins or the
:24:21. > :24:23.reverse, isn't there a clear indication that your party could be
:24:24. > :24:29.heading for a serious schism? Either way. We need to heal the party under
:24:30. > :24:33.effective leadership, so we can have a chance of winning the general
:24:34. > :24:39.election which might come much sooner than we all think. And that
:24:40. > :24:47.is my main aim with launching this leadership campaign. If he wins, you
:24:48. > :24:50.will accept the result? You have to accept the result of any... You
:24:51. > :24:55.would go back into the Shadow Cabinet? You have to accept the
:24:56. > :24:59.result of any democratic process but I'm focused on winning this and I'm
:25:00. > :25:02.not going to speculate about what happens afterwards. Angela Eagle,
:25:03. > :25:07.busy summer head, thank you. It's clear the battle inside Labour
:25:08. > :25:10.is about to get nasty - in the last hour, the MP
:25:11. > :25:13.who initiated the vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn,
:25:14. > :25:15.Margaret Hodge, had this to say I'm beginning to think he's
:25:16. > :25:20.actually a devious man, who is more concerned
:25:21. > :25:23.with destroying the Labour Party than he is with creating a force
:25:24. > :25:26.that can win an election in such difficult times and which
:25:27. > :25:40.will unite the party. There we are. We have heard from
:25:41. > :25:48.Chris Grayling and Angela Eagle and Jeremy Corbyn this morning. Helen,
:25:49. > :25:54.whatever the outcome, it looks like this ends badly for Labour. It is
:25:55. > :25:57.very interesting. In the new statesman we did an issue about
:25:58. > :26:03.whether Labour should split, and we said, no, but are now talking to
:26:04. > :26:09.Labour MPs who are openly talking about this, people who are tribally
:26:10. > :26:14.Labour and are not metropolitan, they are saying this cannot be sewn
:26:15. > :26:18.back together. The big question, if Jeremy Corbyn gets on the ballot and
:26:19. > :26:22.gets 50 MPs, I think he will win, but if he doesn't get on, that
:26:23. > :26:26.becomes a case of his faction splitting off, so the battle is...
:26:27. > :26:31.Everyone is imagining a split, but it is who gets left with custody of
:26:32. > :26:36.the party. Control of the Labour brand, which is powerful. The union
:26:37. > :26:42.funding is on a downward slope, already, the trade union is going to
:26:43. > :26:46.reduce that further, Labour have had very little success with big donors
:26:47. > :26:52.under Jeremy Corbyn. There is a fundamental force at work. The
:26:53. > :26:54.party's grassroots once a different Labour Parliamentary party and the
:26:55. > :26:59.Parliamentary Labour Party would like a different grassroots. One or
:27:00. > :27:04.the other has to go its own way. You can't reconcile them. The texture of
:27:05. > :27:08.the grassroots has changed in the past year, since the party was
:27:09. > :27:12.opened up by Ed Miliband to new members. It might be changing in the
:27:13. > :27:19.other direction even as we speak 130,000 new members since June, the
:27:20. > :27:22.equivalent of the size of the Tory party, it is possible the bulk of
:27:23. > :27:26.those people are people that might be, since the referendum campaign,
:27:27. > :27:32.might want a party that is moderate. We don't know that. Angela Eagle is
:27:33. > :27:37.taking a punt on the idea that those are relatively centrist voters, but
:27:38. > :27:41.what I'd take from her and Owen Smith, is not a massive amount of
:27:42. > :27:46.enthusiasm for running for this big ship, they don't radiate glee at the
:27:47. > :27:49.prospect of becoming leader, so I wonder if the idea is to have an
:27:50. > :27:52.interim leader who is moderate and then before 2020 and onto someone
:27:53. > :28:01.who they think can win a general election. It is a big part on her
:28:02. > :28:06.part. She sounded so miserable. -- punt. She sounded very depressed
:28:07. > :28:11.about the idea of launching aided ship contest and that is because
:28:12. > :28:16.there is no resolution to this. -- launching a leadership contest. If
:28:17. > :28:22.she wins it is a pyrrhic victory, but if she loses, it won't be
:28:23. > :28:26.resolved, and it feels like it will not be resolved until the next
:28:27. > :28:29.general election, when the public and determine what kind of Labour
:28:30. > :28:35.MPs they both like to fight for that election. It could be a bloodbath.
:28:36. > :28:40.Last year it was quite lively, and this year, there might be a lot of
:28:41. > :28:45.screaming at the Labour Party conference. It would be worth the
:28:46. > :28:53.price of admission to both party conferences this autumn.
:28:54. > :28:56.The referendum result came as a shock to many, not least those
:28:57. > :28:59.Lucy Thomas was deputy director of Britain Stronger In.
:29:00. > :29:02.In an exclusive for the Sunday Politics, she talks to fellow
:29:03. > :29:04.campaign insiders about how the referendum was lost.
:29:05. > :29:06.We are absolutely clear now that there is no way
:29:07. > :29:11.Right up until the end, we thought Remain could win.
:29:12. > :29:16.I'm Lucy Thomas, and I was deputy director of that campaign,
:29:17. > :29:19.and one of those that was there from the beginning.
:29:20. > :29:21.This is the story of what we did and why,
:29:22. > :29:24.but why, in the end, it wasn't enough.
:29:25. > :29:27.So let's go back to where it started.
:29:28. > :29:29.We launched Britain Stronger In Europe on a cold October morning
:29:30. > :29:39.Cue the usual jokes about our organisation.
:29:40. > :29:43.We set out to persuade people that Britain was stronger,
:29:44. > :29:47.safer and better off in Europe than we would be out on our own,
:29:48. > :29:49.and that leaving was a leap in the dark, a risk
:29:50. > :29:54.As a nation of Eurosceptics, we always knew it would be tough,
:29:55. > :29:59.but I'm not sure we were prepared for what the early research showed.
:30:00. > :30:01.When we presented that and we discussed it
:30:02. > :30:03.with you and the team, I think everybody sort
:30:04. > :30:08.God, this is going to be harder than we thought.
:30:09. > :30:10.So we built a campaign based on numbers.
:30:11. > :30:13.It's the economy, stupid, and it had been proven to work
:30:14. > :30:17.in the Scottish referendum and the general election.
:30:18. > :30:26.One of the reasons why some of the specific warnings
:30:27. > :30:28.would have bounced off people was because it sounded
:30:29. > :30:30.like scaremongering, because it wasn't evidence.
:30:31. > :30:32.It was just saying, if we vote to leave,
:30:33. > :30:35.it will cost this many jobs or this much growth
:30:36. > :30:42.And people said they were crying out to hear from the experts.
:30:43. > :30:46.to economists, scientists to defence chiefs, they all spoke
:30:47. > :30:51.for themselves, and the weight of expert opinion was overwhelming.
:30:52. > :30:56.if the UK was to leave the European Union.
:30:57. > :30:59.Material slowdown in growth, notable increase in inflation.
:31:00. > :31:05.In a sense, we were the victims of our own success in the early
:31:06. > :31:07.part of the campaign, because we landed our economic
:31:08. > :31:15.We pushed the Leave campaign from Norway to Canada to Albania,
:31:16. > :31:18.and then finally pushed them entirely off the single market.
:31:19. > :31:20.Of course, what it meant was that that was the moment
:31:21. > :31:24.Nigel Farage's approach to this referendum, and to make it
:31:25. > :31:31.Imagine what will happen to public services...
:31:32. > :31:34.When I first saw their PPB, the one with all the arrows
:31:35. > :31:38.implying that millions of people from all sorts of countries
:31:39. > :31:41.including Turkey and possibly other countries that aren't in the EU
:31:42. > :31:44.are going to come and move to Britain, and I showed
:31:45. > :31:47.that to focus groups, it was very powerful,
:31:48. > :31:50.because it captured the anxiety and fear and emotion
:31:51. > :31:53.people have at the prospect of being overwhelmed
:31:54. > :31:58.and these are all terms I would hear in the focus groups.
:31:59. > :32:05.and the literature that was used off the back of it was very powerful.
:32:06. > :32:10.I also knew, of course, that it was purposefully choosing
:32:11. > :32:15.So we always knew that immigration was a problem,
:32:16. > :32:25.around this table, that lots of the discussions were heard.
:32:26. > :32:28.Some wondered, was there more we could do to get EU leaders
:32:29. > :32:30.to show more flexibility on free movement, maybe?
:32:31. > :32:33.But to others, that meant fighting the rest of the campaign
:32:34. > :32:37.on immigration, when we needed for it to be back on the economy.
:32:38. > :32:40.If you could solve the problem of free movement, it would have been
:32:41. > :32:45.If you can't solve the problem of immigration, moving
:32:46. > :32:47.on to immigration might make things worse, not better.
:32:48. > :32:54.But given what we did know, it made sense to stick to the economy.
:32:55. > :32:57.But it became clear that for some people,
:32:58. > :32:59.that economic risk didn't mean anything.
:33:00. > :33:03.I spoke to one man in my constituency who was out one day,
:33:04. > :33:08.He was voting to leave because of all those concerns
:33:09. > :33:16."I understand your concerns about that.
:33:17. > :33:18.What do you think about the argument that leaving would be
:33:19. > :33:22.he said, "What do I care about the economy?
:33:23. > :33:28.There are lots of people in Britain who do feel passed over,
:33:29. > :33:32.They don't see what the future could hold for them or their children,
:33:33. > :33:39.This referendum was a chance to attach that anger to the EU.
:33:40. > :33:46.Shouldn't Labour have been able to reach out to those voters?
:33:47. > :33:50.The brutal truth is that the leader of the Labour Party did not
:33:51. > :33:54.campaign with authenticity, passion, conviction
:33:55. > :34:02.He said he was for Remain, but it was on quite a narrow basis,
:34:03. > :34:09.in terms of what the broader argument could be.
:34:10. > :34:14.Polling took place during the campaign that showed half
:34:15. > :34:20.that our official position was for Remain.
:34:21. > :34:23.So I think more could have been done, yes.
:34:24. > :34:26.And whether it was true or not, the Leave campaign was determined
:34:27. > :34:33.The power of the 350 million a week can't be overstated.
:34:34. > :34:36.In focus groups, it is quite unusual for floating voters who aren't
:34:37. > :34:40.interested in politics to have internalised a campaign fact
:34:41. > :34:44.or number so that it comes out spontaneously, and it did.
:34:45. > :34:47.When we would say, have you noticed that some people are saying that
:34:48. > :34:51.isn't actually true, people would say, "Vaguely,
:34:52. > :34:54.but it's still a very big number, isn't it?"
:34:55. > :35:02.In the final debate, just days before the vote,
:35:03. > :35:04.the Leave campaign came armed with their catch-all phrase
:35:05. > :35:08.Taking back control of our country and our system.
:35:09. > :35:14.We can take back control over our laws.
:35:15. > :35:16.We can take back control over our taxes.
:35:17. > :35:19.We can take back control over our borders,
:35:20. > :35:29.They were being presented with a simple solution, which was,
:35:30. > :35:31.if you think this is a problem and migration is putting pressures
:35:32. > :35:34.on our public services and jobs, we can take back control.
:35:35. > :35:37.The way I would put it was that we had a complex truth
:35:38. > :35:43.up against a simple lie, and we see what happened.
:35:44. > :35:48.And what happened will be talked about for decades.
:35:49. > :35:50.Though we built the biggest ever cross-party, cross-sector campaign
:35:51. > :35:56.with over 40,000 volunteers, we didn't win the day.
:35:57. > :35:58.This was a campaign where experts were dismissed
:35:59. > :36:00.and conventional wisdom thrown out of the window.
:36:01. > :36:10.Many doubt if campaigns will ever be the same again.
:36:11. > :36:15.And Matthew Elliott from Vote Leave will be looking at how their
:36:16. > :36:21.campaign won the referendum on the Daily Politics. Isabel, having
:36:22. > :36:25.looked at that and seen what they are now saying, I now find myself
:36:26. > :36:30.surprised that Remain lost by only four percentage points. Right. The
:36:31. > :36:32.bottom line is that their big argument on the economy, they went
:36:33. > :36:37.grossly over the top at the beginning. They tried to create what
:36:38. > :36:41.pollsters call a settled view, which then becomes difficult to dislodge.
:36:42. > :36:46.But in doing so, they went so far over the top that their claims
:36:47. > :36:49.became unbelievable, and simply adding more experts to its got no
:36:50. > :36:54.response from the electorate. Secondly, and more importantly, they
:36:55. > :37:00.had no answer on the immigration question. I think the majority of
:37:01. > :37:04.people who voted Leave, whether or not they would admit it, well, in
:37:05. > :37:08.their heart of hearts, voting so because of immigration, and Remain
:37:09. > :37:12.had no answer on that. You didn't have to be a rocket scientist or
:37:13. > :37:16.even a psephologists work-out that immigration was going to be the big
:37:17. > :37:19.issue. We have spoken about it on this programme months before the
:37:20. > :37:26.campaign began, and yet even by the end of the campaign, they still had
:37:27. > :37:31.no answer to the immigration issue. That is the legacy of years of
:37:32. > :37:34.British politics, when no one will make a positive case for
:37:35. > :37:38.immigration, or a case for the trade-off, where you say we accept
:37:39. > :37:41.immigration because of the economic benefits. The economic argument
:37:42. > :37:44.failed because people didn't feel that all these years of prosperity
:37:45. > :37:47.in the City of London had any translation to the real economy. So
:37:48. > :37:51.when we said it would be terrible for the City of London, people
:37:52. > :37:59.thought, what has that got to do with me? Was there anything Remain
:38:00. > :38:01.could have done to have won? I think a different renegotiation in January
:38:02. > :38:08.or February by the Prime Minister Cold War which secured some tangible
:38:09. > :38:12.concession on -- by the Prime Minister, some negotiation which
:38:13. > :38:18.achieved a concession on immigration would have done it. People didn't
:38:19. > :38:21.feel they were getting that, and therefore, it was very interesting.
:38:22. > :38:25.It wasn't the internal dynamics of the campaign that was at fault. The
:38:26. > :38:29.reason they didn't have a answer was because Cameron didn't come back
:38:30. > :38:34.with something solid. So it was Angela Merkel what lost it? Yes, and
:38:35. > :38:37.I am sure she is now bitterly regretting not giving Cameron
:38:38. > :38:42.something. The other thing is that I know that when the Britain Stronger
:38:43. > :38:46.In Europe campaign had their early meetings before the campaign
:38:47. > :38:48.officially began, they had a discussion about identifying five
:38:49. > :38:52.positive things about being in the EU that we can sell to voters, and
:38:53. > :38:57.they couldn't come up with any. That was again part of the problem. They
:38:58. > :39:01.failed to put a positive case, it was just Project Fear. It was also
:39:02. > :39:06.David Cameron what lost it, because for years, to get selected in the
:39:07. > :39:09.Tory party, you had to be Eurosceptic. He then had a career
:39:10. > :39:14.saying it would not be a problem if we leave, and then pivoted to say
:39:15. > :39:18.the sky would fall in. A lot of voters concluded, that is typical of
:39:19. > :39:20.the political elite. Making it up as you go along.
:39:21. > :39:22.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:23. > :39:25.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:26. > :39:33.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.
:39:34. > :39:36.Hello, welcome to Sunday Politics Wales.
:39:37. > :39:39.In a few minutes, is the Labour Party about to split?
:39:40. > :39:41.With Angela Eagle challenging for the leadership, will the Welsh
:39:42. > :39:47.And playing the man, not the ball, Alun Cairns tells us how
:39:48. > :39:52.he plans to capitalise on Wales's footy success.
:39:53. > :39:55.But first, Plaid Cymru want Tony Blair to appear before MPs,
:39:56. > :39:57.and possibly face sanctions, in the light of the conclusions
:39:58. > :40:02.Plaid's parliamentary leader is Hywel Williams,
:40:03. > :40:18.Good morning. What exactly do you want to see happening now following
:40:19. > :40:24.this report? Well, we think the evidence of the Chilcott report is
:40:25. > :40:28.quite damning. We want MPs to have the opportunity to debate what sort
:40:29. > :40:33.of sanctions we should take against Mr Blair and bring him before the
:40:34. > :40:38.house so that he can hear the verdict. Possibly, also stripped of
:40:39. > :40:44.some of his titles, some sort of symbolic punishment for him for what
:40:45. > :40:49.he did in taking us into this unjust and illegal war. The original plan
:40:50. > :40:54.was for an impeachment. That seems to be off the cards, it
:40:55. > :41:01.is a contempt motion next week which will need the support of a majority.
:41:02. > :41:04.Do you think you'll get that? Circumstances have changed
:41:05. > :41:12.enormously since we brought the case for impeachment before the house in
:41:13. > :41:17.2006. I think the opinion has changed. There will be many more MPs
:41:18. > :41:21.who are anxious to make their views known.
:41:22. > :41:28.I hope we succeed. The problem, I guess, that you have is that we have
:41:29. > :41:31.this report, 12 volumes, 2.6 million words, it will take four weeks to
:41:32. > :41:36.read through it at the average pace, but two or three days after the
:41:37. > :41:39.report comes out you are already calling for Parliament action
:41:40. > :41:45.against Tony Blair. You don't even know what is in the report.
:41:46. > :41:50.I've read the executive summary which is 150 pages, and a large
:41:51. > :41:53.chunks of the evidence itself. This case has been in preparation for a
:41:54. > :41:58.long time. We were calling for impeachment in
:41:59. > :42:02.2006. But not the outcomes, and not what
:42:03. > :42:05.Chilcott has said, you had no time to look at what is actually in the
:42:06. > :42:10.report. There are details of the report
:42:11. > :42:14.which tell us that he has a case to answer.
:42:15. > :42:19.The most obvious one is that he decided well beforehand to take us
:42:20. > :42:22.into war, before even telling the House of Commons.
:42:23. > :42:27.He agreed with President Bush and the evidence is now well known.
:42:28. > :42:33.And there is that notorious memo he sent to Mr Bush saying I will be
:42:34. > :42:36.with you, whatever. That says he had decided well
:42:37. > :42:40.beforehand what would happen. In that sense he misled the House of
:42:41. > :42:45.Commons. But that's not unnecessarily
:42:46. > :42:51.misleading the house, he says a case was made in order to go to war, he
:42:52. > :42:55.took evidence from the head of MI6 and what the Chilcott enquiry
:42:56. > :43:00.evidence shows, but you haven't seen it because you haven't read it is
:43:01. > :43:03.that he was misled by MI6 who didn't give him the picture. You are being
:43:04. > :43:09.unfair to blame by not reading the whole report.
:43:10. > :43:14.Mr Blair is anxious to off-load the blame. He says there were mistakes
:43:15. > :43:18.in process, what happens day-to-day, there were mistakes by everyone else
:43:19. > :43:22.including the intelligence agencies, but he thinks he's right. I think
:43:23. > :43:26.he's wrong, and the evidence is against him. There will be the
:43:27. > :43:31.opportunity for MPs to debate this and we will have had more time to
:43:32. > :43:35.look at the evidence, but it is very clear indeed, from what I've seen
:43:36. > :43:40.already, that he has a case to answer and I think it is a damning
:43:41. > :43:44.case. But John Chilcott was saying that
:43:45. > :43:47.his hope was that maybe governments in future would think again, all
:43:48. > :43:52.think more carefully about going into war. Would your efforts be
:43:53. > :43:57.better spent trying to achieve that rather than trying to lay blame at
:43:58. > :44:02.the door of Tony Blair, when we've had a report which has looked at it
:44:03. > :44:09.sadly that? There are families of the 179 people
:44:10. > :44:13.were killed, from the UK, and 24 civilians. As well as hundreds of
:44:14. > :44:15.thousands of Iraqis who were killed. People are looking for basic
:44:16. > :44:20.justice. He misled the highest court in the
:44:21. > :44:24.land, the House of Commons, the Parliament of the UK. I think he
:44:25. > :44:29.should face the consequence of that. But the problem you have is that he
:44:30. > :44:34.doesn't necessarily have to come and dance in the House of Commons. You
:44:35. > :44:36.can't force him to go there. He is unlikely to agree to come there
:44:37. > :44:41.voluntarily. The highest and the lowest in the
:44:42. > :44:44.land eventually can be summoned to Parliament. We are the people
:44:45. > :44:48.assembled eventually and if they tell people to come they are to
:44:49. > :44:51.come. Well, there we are. Thank you for
:44:52. > :44:55.Well, we'd all love to have been watching Wales in the Euro
:44:56. > :44:58.Even so, the team's success exceeded all expectations.
:44:59. > :45:00.The Welsh Secretary told this programme the publicity this success
:45:01. > :45:08.They say all good things must come to an end and on Friday night
:45:09. > :45:11.Chris Coleman's men arrived in Cardiff today hero's welcome.
:45:12. > :45:16.But the team's adventure may yet yield more Welsh success.
:45:17. > :45:19.The Secretary of State for Wales has followed all the action over
:45:20. > :45:25.Kicking every ball, he believes what the players have
:45:26. > :45:31.Even if I went to the Chancellor to asking for a huge sum of money
:45:32. > :45:34.in terms of billions or millions, we never could have bought this
:45:35. > :45:37.This really has put Wales on the map.
:45:38. > :45:40.The international currency of football should
:45:41. > :45:44.The huge sums of money and investment that goes behind it,
:45:45. > :45:47.and we now need to position ourselves to exploit that positively
:45:48. > :45:52.instead of having the photograph of a castle from Scotland,
:45:53. > :45:54.or maybe a castle from Wales, we can now have some
:45:55. > :45:58.superstar football players who are recognised internationally.
:45:59. > :46:01.The Welsh government is already looking to build
:46:02. > :46:08.This promotional video was broadcast in Germany this week.
:46:09. > :46:11.In terms of the number of people who are accessing our website,
:46:12. > :46:14.the Visit Wales website, we are seeing a huge number
:46:15. > :46:19.of people finding out what it is to visit Wales.
:46:20. > :46:23.So there has been a marked increase in interest by would-be visitors.
:46:24. > :46:25.The challenge for us, and what we need to do,
:46:26. > :46:33.is make sure we convert that interest into actual visits.
:46:34. > :46:36.But to what extent can Ben's blocks and Gareth's goals realistically
:46:37. > :46:43.Professor Max Munday has previously assessed the economic impact
:46:44. > :46:47.of Swansea's promotion to the Premier League on the city.
:46:48. > :46:50.When a club comes up to the championship,
:46:51. > :46:54.to the premiership, we are getting a year or many,
:46:55. > :47:02.Part of that is related to television revenue and hope.
:47:03. > :47:04.You get additional tourism and income coming into the city.
:47:05. > :47:06.This is a bit different, we are talking about
:47:07. > :47:12.My first point would be that it is going to be much more
:47:13. > :47:14.difficult to quantify the economic effects related to what has been
:47:15. > :47:27.Ironically, with so many thousands of fans following the team
:47:28. > :47:30.in France, Professor Munday believes there is an apartment that Wales has
:47:31. > :47:33.missed out on money that would otherwise
:47:34. > :47:40.Nevertheless, there could be a post-tournament dividend, he says.
:47:41. > :47:49.We have to admit that things are very uncertain in the Welsh
:47:50. > :47:51.and UK economy at the moment, the leadership elections,
:47:52. > :47:55.There is a great deal of uncertainty.
:47:56. > :47:57.Anything that can give a little confidence can be very
:47:58. > :48:05.It may be impossible to properly measure what the national team's
:48:06. > :48:09.success means for Wales, but after 58 years in
:48:10. > :48:15.the footballing wilderness, is it's not welcome enough that such
:48:16. > :48:24.The Labour Party is facing its most serious crisis in decades.
:48:25. > :48:28.With falling support in its heartlands,
:48:29. > :48:31.and Angela Eagle's decision to challenge for the leadership, few
:48:32. > :48:36.In a moment, two senior Labour figures tell us what the party needs
:48:37. > :48:41.First, in a personal essay, the former minister and Rhondda AM
:48:42. > :48:50.Leighton Andrews outlines the challenges ahead.
:48:51. > :48:52.Nine years ago when I was appointed Deputy Minister for regeneration
:48:53. > :48:55.by Rhodri Morgan, all you would have seen here on the site
:48:56. > :48:58.of the old steelworks in Ebbw Vale were diggers and bulldozers.
:48:59. > :49:06.Now you'll find a hospital, a school, a college,
:49:07. > :49:12.new housing and the Gwent archive all located on this site.
:49:13. > :49:14.None of this could have happened without millions of pounds
:49:15. > :49:23.Despite that, this area, Blaenau Gwent, recorded the highest
:49:24. > :49:32.Why did valleys areas like Ebbw Vale, Rhondda Cynon Taff,
:49:33. > :49:37.Torfaen, Neath Port Talbot, Caerphilly and Merthyr
:49:38. > :49:42.Turn Their Backs On The European Union?
:49:43. > :49:45.Welsh Remains campaigners believe, above all, this has been
:49:46. > :49:53.A populist revolt against the political elites.
:49:54. > :49:58.The referendum vote has certainly exposed a sharp division
:49:59. > :49:59.between the leadership of the National Assembly,
:50:00. > :50:02.both the Welsh Labour government and the official opposition
:50:03. > :50:11.of Plaid Cymru, and the majority of the people of Wales.
:50:12. > :50:14.The truth is, that these values are precisely the kind
:50:15. > :50:17.of post-industrial areas, former mining or steel producing
:50:18. > :50:20.areas, which have lost jobs to globalisation.
:50:21. > :50:27.Where working-class people feel at left behind.
:50:28. > :50:30.Overall, in the EU referendum campaign, the biggest driver
:50:31. > :50:36.of the Brexit message was immigration in Wales,
:50:37. > :50:42.But the South Wales valleys are not places which have had significant
:50:43. > :50:51.But immigration is a proxy for a range of other issues.
:50:52. > :50:55.Perceived pressure on public services, the alleged
:50:56. > :51:01.undercutting of wages, the insecurities of change,
:51:02. > :51:14.But the referendum wasn't the first warning sign for Welsh Labour.
:51:15. > :51:19.In May's Assembly election Labour haemorrhaged votes to Plaid Cymru
:51:20. > :51:26.Plaid Cymru and Ukip both blame Labour, after 17
:51:27. > :51:31.years running Wales, for the valleys being in decline.
:51:32. > :51:34.It's a powerful message, which is particularly attuned
:51:35. > :51:40.The challenge for the Welsh Labour government is to instil
:51:41. > :51:46.a sense of hope and belief, not only that things can get better,
:51:47. > :51:53.In a time of falling public sector budgets, that is a really
:51:54. > :52:00.But, unless new impetus can be found, these could be
:52:01. > :52:13.I'm joined now by the former Shadow Welsh Secretary Nia Griffith
:52:14. > :52:17.and the leader of the PCS union in Wales, Corbyn
:52:18. > :52:31.Thank you for coming in. Let's pick up on what Leighton Andrews was
:52:32. > :52:36.talking about there, there are issues at a UK level, but in Wales,
:52:37. > :52:40.that disconnect Leighton Andrews is talking about between the Labour
:52:41. > :52:45.government and its former heartlands, the industrial South
:52:46. > :52:50.Wales valleys. Should that be a concern to leadership in Wales? It
:52:51. > :52:53.is a considerable concern. Where you would have had a job in the
:52:54. > :52:59.steelworks and the opportunity to get a mortgage to buy a house,
:53:00. > :53:02.people are seeing temporary jobs and agency work, they see that a lot of
:53:03. > :53:09.regeneration has been focused on Cardiff. Or, as Leighton pointed
:53:10. > :53:14.out, project in Ebbw Vale and that don't actually generate the sort of
:53:15. > :53:21.industrial jobs they would want to apply for. We see a lot of young
:53:22. > :53:25.people taken on by agencies, on, off, zero hours contracts, split
:53:26. > :53:31.shifts, I transport costs to get those jobs. We need to look a lot
:53:32. > :53:37.more carefully at a tailored offer to what we are doing in the valleys.
:53:38. > :53:42.So what needs to happen? When we put these points to Carwyn Jones a
:53:43. > :53:46.couple of weeks ago he sort of sad, old, we'll see how it goes. There
:53:47. > :53:51.doesn't seem to be real concern at the top of the party.
:53:52. > :53:55.We need to dissect in more detail what is happening. We can't say we
:53:56. > :53:59.need a brand chips and regeneration, but then we need to think about
:54:00. > :54:04.transport, are we asking these young people to go and live somewhere
:54:05. > :54:07.else? To live in Cardiff, for example or are we able to make sure
:54:08. > :54:12.they have transport links in the wrong communities. We probably have
:54:13. > :54:19.to get a lot more local in our response, and really work very
:54:20. > :54:22.closely with local communities. Highlighting baby problems of people
:54:23. > :54:26.who live in the communities, but what about the problems facing the
:54:27. > :54:31.Labour Party not being able to connect with those people. The fact
:54:32. > :54:35.that so many people took the decision to vote you kept in some of
:54:36. > :54:42.the areas that have been mentioned is a big concern for me. And for
:54:43. > :54:47.many others. Ultimately, people didn't vote Ukip because everyone
:54:48. > :54:51.who voted Ukip is a racist, they voted you can because they felt
:54:52. > :54:55.disenfranchised. They felt the areas they live in not invested in on the
:54:56. > :54:57.right way. There are not being invested in on the right way. Their
:54:58. > :55:01.moral many is shiny shops and amenities you can offer. There is
:55:02. > :55:06.only so many voluntary jobs that you can do that potentially permanent
:55:07. > :55:14.job. More often than not, as we have just said, it leads to zero
:55:15. > :55:18.contract. So what is Labour doing? I think that we as a recognised trade
:55:19. > :55:22.unions within Wales have a partnership agreement with the Welsh
:55:23. > :55:26.government, we are going to be working closely with the Welsh
:55:27. > :55:31.government to get the message out to the valleys. To start speaking to
:55:32. > :55:36.our own members within those areas, speaking to the public about what is
:55:37. > :55:41.actually happening. Ultimately, you have to remember we have had six
:55:42. > :55:46.years of massive cuts, massive austerity, 900 million lost to the
:55:47. > :55:52.Welsh economy because of welfare cuts, 62,000 job cuts in Wales since
:55:53. > :55:56.2010 and employers not playing a living wage.
:55:57. > :56:00.They are real issues. But that is the point Leighton Andrews finished
:56:01. > :56:04.on in his report, a dwindling public sector pouch, unless they can be a
:56:05. > :56:08.fresh impetus on the Welsh government you are talking about
:56:09. > :56:12.lost valleys. How do you get, with dwindling public services, fresh
:56:13. > :56:16.impetus in the Welsh government when they have been in power for 17 years
:56:17. > :56:21.and the heartlands are no longer listening?
:56:22. > :56:24.The cuts have been devastating and we have to look beyond the public
:56:25. > :56:30.sector. We have to look at some of the carp industries in my yearly, in
:56:31. > :56:35.Llanelli. We need more permanent jobs and fewer agency jobs. We need
:56:36. > :56:39.to look at ways of trying to guarantee that so that we work with
:56:40. > :56:42.the private sector to make a more stable environment and a better
:56:43. > :56:45.environment, with better working additions. We have to focus much
:56:46. > :56:51.more specifically on job offers rather than, perhaps, some of the
:56:52. > :56:56.bigger more exciting projects we have also got going. We need to make
:56:57. > :57:00.sure that people who need to access jobs are actually able to do so and
:57:01. > :57:06.are not stopped from doing so by travel barriers or by this awful
:57:07. > :57:13.business of the revolving door, in, out from all the time. Carwyn Jones
:57:14. > :57:16.recently met with the trade unions, post-Brexit, he talked about the
:57:17. > :57:22.impact of Brexit and what that means for Wales. The trade unions put
:57:23. > :57:26.forward a proposal that they should be a summit, there should be a
:57:27. > :57:30.coming together public sector and private sector within Wales, and
:57:31. > :57:35.what we should be doing is working together to ensure that of their
:57:36. > :57:39.recognition, will once you have union recognition there is more
:57:40. > :57:44.chance of better terms and conditions under better way forward
:57:45. > :57:49.for everybody. Looking at the way forward, talking rugby Welsh
:57:50. > :57:54.situation, the UK level, it is frankly a bit of a mess in the
:57:55. > :57:59.Labour Party right now. Angela Eagle will stand against Jeremy Corbyn,
:58:00. > :58:04.you were on the front bench, and have resigned, what you make of this
:58:05. > :58:09.situation? The issue we are facing now is that we may have a General
:58:10. > :58:14.Election very soon. It may not be a four-year term, until the next
:58:15. > :58:19.election. The reason may has said... Yes, I hear what they are saying,
:58:20. > :58:24.that when they are faced with trying to push through difficult
:58:25. > :58:28.legislation with half a dozen of their MPs able to block that the
:58:29. > :58:30.rebel and then the temptation to have a General Election,
:58:31. > :58:34.particularly if they see a weakened Labour Party is going to be very
:58:35. > :58:39.strong. Our concern is that we don't want to see another four years of
:58:40. > :58:43.this shambolic Tory government. If that opportunity were to arise we
:58:44. > :58:46.want to be in a position where we could action the win a General
:58:47. > :58:52.Election so we can't begin to turn the ship around. But if Jeremy
:58:53. > :58:56.Corbyn is allowed to stand, and for the legal complaint about that,
:58:57. > :59:02.there is a good chance he will win. And then you go into this election
:59:03. > :59:07.with a leader that clearly, a majority of MPs in Westminster,
:59:08. > :59:10.don't support. If we do have a leadership contest and Jeremy Corbyn
:59:11. > :59:14.stands they will be a very vibrant discussion in the party about who
:59:15. > :59:18.would make the best leader. What we need is a leader who can win
:59:19. > :59:24.general elections. We need a leader who can unite the party, we need a
:59:25. > :59:29.leader who can show... But you have that. Jeremy Corbyn has not been
:59:30. > :59:33.tested at the General Election. He has an overwhelming mandate and the
:59:34. > :59:38.people splitting the party is on the disloyal MPs who are challenging him
:59:39. > :59:42.with a vote of no-confidence. Many party members say to me that we
:59:43. > :59:46.recognise that you see what is happening at a much closer quarters,
:59:47. > :59:49.all of us have been out campaigning over the last three months up and
:59:50. > :59:53.down the country, and the message we are taking back to Jeremy is that,
:59:54. > :59:58.yes, people like them moved the left. They likely aren't just a
:59:59. > :00:01.ready programme, that is something that any new leader would want to
:00:02. > :00:08.carry forward, certainly Angela Eagle want to. But they don't see
:00:09. > :00:13.him as able to galvanise the party into a really strong opposition for
:00:14. > :00:18.a General Election. You are a Corbyn support what do you make of that,
:00:19. > :00:24.this idea that members of the party like the shift to the left? 60% of
:00:25. > :00:29.the membership voted him in as leader only nine months ago, some
:00:30. > :00:34.people say we've had 126,000 new members. Only over the last few
:00:35. > :00:41.months since all this drama actually kicked off. And, ultimately, what
:00:42. > :00:50.you have to remember is that Jeremy Corbyn does have a big appeal.
:00:51. > :00:53.There's been all this talk about... There is a particular sort of person
:00:54. > :00:57.who is joining the party because they want to support Jeremy Corbyn,
:00:58. > :01:02.but ultimately they are joining them as they believe he is the right
:01:03. > :01:06.person for the job. We are running short of time. You know there is
:01:07. > :01:12.this challenge against him. What if the decision from the Labour
:01:13. > :01:16.committee says, actually, he doesn't have an automatic right to stand, he
:01:17. > :01:20.won't that the support of MPs, what would you do then? Ultimately, this
:01:21. > :01:26.could lead to a legal challenge which would be... Ultimately, Jeremy
:01:27. > :01:30.Corbyn is the party who has been elected into the position and we
:01:31. > :01:34.believe the party rules are different and we believe that as the
:01:35. > :01:39.existing leader of the Labour Party he should automatically be on the
:01:40. > :01:43.list. If it takes a call to make that decision, that is where it will
:01:44. > :01:48.have to go. That could lead to is written in the party. Do you think
:01:49. > :01:53.it could lead to respect and the party?
:01:54. > :01:57.It would be a real shame. But it could happen. Now is the time to
:01:58. > :02:01.come together and fight the Tories, not fight amongst ourselves.
:02:02. > :02:05.Do you think it could lead to is bit in the party?
:02:06. > :02:08.In a lot of people who did vote for Jeremy Corbyn last year are saying
:02:09. > :02:13.we don't think he can win a General Election so I think that is a
:02:14. > :02:18.discussion and the debate we will have in any sort of leadership
:02:19. > :02:21.contest. The NEC will set the rules, we will have a precise discussion as
:02:22. > :02:26.You can follow all the latest on Twitter.
:02:27. > :02:29.But for now that's all from me, let's go back to Andrew.
:02:30. > :02:34.for London will look after the franchise in a few years' time.
:02:35. > :02:45.And with that, it's back to you, Andrew.
:02:46. > :02:54.So, will Angela Eagle succeed in replacing Jeremy Corbyn? And our
:02:55. > :02:57.senior Tories discussing plans for a centre ground party with the Lib
:02:58. > :02:58.Dems? Or questions for the week ahead.
:02:59. > :03:06.And joining us is the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Tim Farron.
:03:07. > :03:13.Welcome back. Will the Liberal Democrats campaign to rejoin the EU,
:03:14. > :03:18.come the next general election? We have to see what am I of the land
:03:19. > :03:25.will be. It could be October, it could be made 2020. But just like
:03:26. > :03:29.every other Liberal leader since 1955, I believe, I will have in my
:03:30. > :03:33.manifesto a question that there are a commitment that Britain is better
:03:34. > :03:38.off at the heart of Europe. Chris Grayling said to us this morning
:03:39. > :03:44.that he thinks he will be -- we will be out by the next election. If it
:03:45. > :03:48.is October, all bets are off, but if the parliament goes its term and we
:03:49. > :03:54.are out of the EU and into the 2020 election, would you like your party
:03:55. > :03:57.to have a commitment to rejoin? I want to be part of Europe and I
:03:58. > :04:01.would like to be part of the European Union. If you had asked the
:04:02. > :04:05.12 months ago, I would not have predicted that we would have left
:04:06. > :04:09.the EU. I would not have predicted that Jeremy Corbyn would lead the
:04:10. > :04:14.Labour Party or that David Cameron would have resigned. In four years'
:04:15. > :04:17.time, the lie of the land could be very different. But I am trying to
:04:18. > :04:22.work out if you feel so strongly about it, will you accept the
:04:23. > :04:28.referendum result, or will you try to get us back into the EU? I accept
:04:29. > :04:31.the referendum result. At the moment, the trajectory is towards
:04:32. > :04:35.Brexit and we have to accept that. I have no time for MPs who say we
:04:36. > :04:40.should be undoing the result. That does not mean I give up my campaign
:04:41. > :04:43.for Britain to be in the EU. As has been said by others, you have an
:04:44. > :04:49.election, and if you lose, you accept it, but you don't give up
:04:50. > :04:53.your principles. So I hope it will remain in the EU and I hope it will
:04:54. > :04:59.be the choice of electors if that is the case. Politicians must not force
:05:00. > :05:04.that on people. But didn't we just vote to come out? The 52% were very
:05:05. > :05:08.clear over what they voted against. That was all they were asked to do.
:05:09. > :05:13.They were not asked to vote for one of the five or six potential exit
:05:14. > :05:17.strategies, whether it be for access to the single market, some level of
:05:18. > :05:21.free movement, or whether it is the almost North Korea option but a
:05:22. > :05:24.handful of people prefer the UK to have. It seems to me to be right
:05:25. > :05:31.that the British people, before we leave the EU, are given the choice
:05:32. > :05:35.as to what they want. So you want a referendum on the terms of
:05:36. > :05:40.departure? Well, nobody has voted for what comes next. People voted to
:05:41. > :05:43.leave the EU, but it seems right to me that having made the choice two
:05:44. > :05:49.weeks ago, the British people should also be allowed to choose what is
:05:50. > :05:54.the next step. That sounds like a referendum on the terms to me. Which
:05:55. > :05:59.I am not in favour of, because we have seen that people are busy. We
:06:00. > :06:04.have representative democracy for a reason, and some decisions are
:06:05. > :06:08.better thrashed out by people elected by voters to do that, rather
:06:09. > :06:12.than putting everything to a referendum. But Tim has a point.
:06:13. > :06:17.There is no problem with people campaigning for another referendum.
:06:18. > :06:22.In 1975, we had a referendum and it wasn't like all the anti-Europeans
:06:23. > :06:27.accepted the decision. They carried on campaigning for another 40 years.
:06:28. > :06:35.So it could be another 40 years before he gets another referendum.
:06:36. > :06:39.He is a young lad. Who knows? I would be about Gladstone's age by
:06:40. > :06:42.them. I agree with you in one sense that we don't want to go to the
:06:43. > :06:47.public with a referendum on every issue. The problem is that this
:06:48. > :06:51.government, in a chaotic way, has established that principle, which
:06:52. > :06:58.means that it would be wrong and anti-democratic for the MPs to then
:06:59. > :07:03.overturn what the electorate have done. That means that in terms of
:07:04. > :07:09.endorsing what happens next, and the 52% may have 52 the ideas of what
:07:10. > :07:15.exit looks like. That is fine, but Britain needs to choose what happens
:07:16. > :07:24.next. And they need to choose whether they prefer the status quo
:07:25. > :07:28.before Article 50 is invoked. Oh! Well, I think there was a real
:07:29. > :07:33.danger that MPs will, over a course of time, basically diluted Brexit
:07:34. > :07:37.and not deliver it properly. I thought it was interesting that
:07:38. > :07:41.people like Chris Grayling or arguing that Brexit is safer in the
:07:42. > :07:47.hands of Theresa May. Why is he during that when she was a Remainer?
:07:48. > :07:53.Because he says she has the backing of the majority of Tory MPs. Of
:07:54. > :07:58.course, in Parliament, most MPs are for Remain, and he says that only
:07:59. > :08:01.Theresa May can push through Brexit, which is counterintuitive, but makes
:08:02. > :08:06.sense when you think about it. Surely no government can agree to a
:08:07. > :08:10.referendum on the terms, because Europe would then say, so you need
:08:11. > :08:18.another vote? You are getting nothing. It would be like Congress
:08:19. > :08:23.announcing a referendum on a trade deal with another country. Why would
:08:24. > :08:26.that country do a deal when it is subject to domestic politics? So I
:08:27. > :08:29.think another referendum is unlikely, but I fear that the
:08:30. > :08:35.entirety of the next parliament will be taken up by the process of
:08:36. > :08:39.extrication. What did you say about article 50? If the legal
:08:40. > :08:43.interpretation that once one has invoked article 50, the matter is
:08:44. > :08:46.out of our hands, that is like jumping out of a plane without being
:08:47. > :08:50.sure whether you have a parachute. It seems to me that the bridge
:08:51. > :08:56.people should be allowed to check the safety of the parachute. That
:08:57. > :09:01.means, do we know what we are going into? If we decide collectively that
:09:02. > :09:06.we should be in the single market, for example, as many Brexiteers
:09:07. > :09:09.believe, then for us to press the button to leave the European Union
:09:10. > :09:14.without any guarantee that we would have that access would be foolish to
:09:15. > :09:19.stop are you saying we need another referendum before we press article
:09:20. > :09:23.50? We will need to check the legal advice, but I would not want us to
:09:24. > :09:27.be in a legal position where there is no turning back. But the issue is
:09:28. > :09:33.whether you need a vote of parliament to trigger article 50. To
:09:34. > :09:36.my mind, that is a detail. What I am really bothered about is whether the
:09:37. > :09:40.UK puts us in a position where there is no turning back and we have to
:09:41. > :09:46.settle for whatever bad deal we might get. But once you trigger
:09:47. > :09:50.article 50, that is it. The problem is, if you have done that, my
:09:51. > :09:54.understanding is that there is and then an opportunity for us to
:09:55. > :09:59.negotiate. We get what we are given, and it might be a really bad deal.
:10:00. > :10:03.My job is to make sure to get a good deal. The discussions now might all
:10:04. > :10:07.be over exit over the next few years. It is going to move on from
:10:08. > :10:12.being stuffed for the political classes, as people experience the
:10:13. > :10:16.fact that they have less to spend on holiday, that their savings are
:10:17. > :10:23.worth less. People will begin to realise the reality. Let me ask you
:10:24. > :10:27.this. There is an indication from the Sunday Times... Do you want to
:10:28. > :10:34.rebrand your party? Do you think that the term Liberal Democrats is
:10:35. > :10:38.tarnished? No, I don't. Our party has nearly doubled in size since the
:10:39. > :10:42.last election 13 months ago, and it has gone up by another 16,000 in the
:10:43. > :10:46.last fortnight. There is a movement among young people joining the
:10:47. > :10:55.Liberal Democrats, who see the chaos in the other two parties. How about
:10:56. > :11:00.the Labour Democrats? If you look at the other parties, we are now the
:11:01. > :11:05.marketplace where progressives and moderates from other parties can
:11:06. > :11:09.safely gather. We are open to talking to others in other parties.
:11:10. > :11:14.One of the good things from the referendum, not the result, was the
:11:15. > :11:17.fact that many of us shared platforms with people who we
:11:18. > :11:24.discovered we agree with more than just on the European Union. Have you
:11:25. > :11:32.got any Tories in your cross hairs? I have talked to lots of people.
:11:33. > :11:39.Answer the question. That would not be fair. I have talked to loss of
:11:40. > :11:46.people. Politics is really fluid. Do you buy this realignment? For it to
:11:47. > :11:51.happen, the Lib Dems would need both Andrea Leadsom to be the Tory leader
:11:52. > :11:55.and Jeremy Corbyn to stay as the Labour leader. It requires a lot to
:11:56. > :11:58.happen. If Leadsom did become Tory leader and Jeremy Corbyn were
:11:59. > :12:01.strengthened as Labour leader, you have not just a centrist party
:12:02. > :12:06.potentially, but a very big centrist party. What I would issue as a
:12:07. > :12:10.warning is that that party would still be subject to all the
:12:11. > :12:13.squabbles that any existing party suffers. Were I and Tim to join, for
:12:14. > :12:18.example, there would be a debate about what centrism means. Is it
:12:19. > :12:22.social democracy or something more economically liberal? Does it mean
:12:23. > :12:26.commitment to the European Union, or honouring the referendum and getting
:12:27. > :12:29.out? It would be no less prone to internal disagreements. Dubai the
:12:30. > :12:35.story this morning that there were 20 Tory MPs threatening to leave if
:12:36. > :12:40.Andrea Leadsom should become leader? I didn't buy that at all. It sounded
:12:41. > :12:45.like 20 years he fits to me. In relation to a realignment, it is
:12:46. > :12:49.interesting, what will happen to the UK Independence Party. Tim said the
:12:50. > :12:53.Lib Dems world where the marketplace is, but think about all those people
:12:54. > :12:58.that voted, for a righty of reasons, for Brexit, and what happens to
:12:59. > :13:01.Ukip. I think we will see that rebranding under a different name is
:13:02. > :13:05.some kind of people's party, and that could pick up a lot of Lib Dem
:13:06. > :13:12.and Labour votes. Is Tim Farron right to be confident with the
:13:13. > :13:17.position the Lib Dems are in? Last man standing, possibly the token
:13:18. > :13:20.male leader after all this. The joy for the Lib Dems is that they have a
:13:21. > :13:25.clear position and they are most gunning to be a majority party. They
:13:26. > :13:30.can have a focus that other parties don't have. We shall see. We have
:13:31. > :13:34.run out of time. The Daily Politics is back at midday on BBC Two all
:13:35. > :13:40.this week. I will be back here on Sunday on BBC One at 11 o'clock.
:13:41. > :13:51.Remember, if it's Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.