:00:00. > :00:00.This programme contains some flashing images.
:00:07. > :00:08.We're live from sunny Birmingham on day one of
:00:09. > :00:11.the Conservative Party Conference, where, three months after Britain
:00:12. > :00:13.voted to leave the European Union, the Prime Minister has given
:00:14. > :00:50.us her first inkling of how she plans to do it.
:00:51. > :00:53.Morning, folks - welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:54. > :00:56.Theresa May says she will trigger Article 50, starting the two year
:00:57. > :00:58.process of negotiations that will culminate in Britain
:00:59. > :01:01.leaving the EU, before the end of March next year.
:01:02. > :01:04.So Brexit by Easter 2019 - but what kind of relationship
:01:05. > :01:11.A Great Repeal Bill will also be voted on next Spring,
:01:12. > :01:17.but won't be enacted until we leave, at which point EU laws will be
:01:18. > :01:44.In the capital, if London was defined by the conservatism of the
:01:45. > :01:46.Notting Hill set, what now? We explore the potential rise of Sidcup
:01:47. > :01:50.Man. So far no Great Repeal Act to get
:01:51. > :01:56.rid of the Sunday Politics Panel - Steve Richards, Rachel Sylvester
:01:57. > :02:03.and Tom Newton Dunn. It's 100 days since we voted
:02:04. > :02:07.to leave the EU and the clamour has grown for the Government to tell us
:02:08. > :02:10.what Brexit would look like. This morning, as the Tory faithful
:02:11. > :02:15.gather in Birmingham, we still don't expect to be told
:02:16. > :02:18.what Brexit means but we do know more about the timetable
:02:19. > :02:20.and the extrication process. A Bill will go before parliament
:02:21. > :02:23.this spring to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act,
:02:24. > :02:25.which legalised our membership But it won't actually come
:02:26. > :02:35.into force until we leave. Theresa May also told
:02:36. > :02:37.the Andrew Marr Show that Article 50 would be invoked
:02:38. > :02:40.by March of next year - starting the two year process
:02:41. > :02:51.of renegotiation before we leave. I have been saying we would not
:02:52. > :02:55.trigger it before the end of this year, so that we get confirmation in
:02:56. > :02:58.place. I will be saying in my speech today that we will trigger before
:02:59. > :03:02.the end of March next year. The remaining members of the EU have to
:03:03. > :03:06.decide what the process of negotiation is. I hope, and I will
:03:07. > :03:09.be saying to them, that now they know what the time is going to be,
:03:10. > :03:16.it is not an exact date, but they know it will be the first quarter of
:03:17. > :03:19.next year, that we will be able to have some preparatory work so that
:03:20. > :03:22.once the trigger comes we have a smoother process of negotiation.
:03:23. > :03:27.Theresa May, on this channel, just over an hour ago. What do you make
:03:28. > :03:31.of it? Saggy as you said, we know more about when but we don't know
:03:32. > :03:36.what Brexit is going to be. We don't know how the relationship will work
:03:37. > :03:39.out, we don't know what the Prime Minister's negotiation position will
:03:40. > :03:43.be, we haven't worked out anything about the free market access and
:03:44. > :03:46.freedom of movement. All of the substance. It is a significant
:03:47. > :03:50.announcement but we don't actually know anything really big about what
:03:51. > :03:55.our lives are going to be like in future. Is there a risk from the
:03:56. > :04:01.Prime Minister? Is there a risk putting this before Parliament to
:04:02. > :04:10.repeal the 1972 Communities Act? Undoubtedly. Anything you put before
:04:11. > :04:12.the House of Commons or the House of Lords, where there is no Tory
:04:13. > :04:17.majority, let alone a Brexit majority, risks getting amended. She
:04:18. > :04:21.runs the risk. There is also a risk of not saying this, not having the
:04:22. > :04:30.greater appeal, which is actually a great repeal act, when is being
:04:31. > :04:35.repealed, but she needed to throw the Tory right red meat, and they
:04:36. > :04:40.got it this morning. There is always the potential of a constitutional
:04:41. > :04:45.crisis. If the Lords were to dig in over this, or even digging over
:04:46. > :04:49.Article 50, demand a vote on that, lawyers are arguing whether you need
:04:50. > :04:54.it or not, it may not be plain sailing when you have a majority of
:04:55. > :04:59.12? It definitely isn't going to be with a majority of 12. The scope for
:05:00. > :05:03.constitutional crisis is many. Clashes with the Lords, clashes with
:05:04. > :05:09.the Commons, Scotland is still there in the background allows a
:05:10. > :05:14.significant factor. It will always be there, but perhaps in a different
:05:15. > :05:19.context. I don't think this will be the trigger for a constitutional
:05:20. > :05:24.crisis. You have to admire the elegant choreography. I was told
:05:25. > :05:27.ages ago that she knew she could not keep carry on saying Brexit means
:05:28. > :05:32.Brexit, there will have to be new lines. This is beautiful. We kind of
:05:33. > :05:36.knew that Article 50 was going to be triggered early in next year. David
:05:37. > :05:41.Davis even said that. It was a fair bet it would be before Easter. They
:05:42. > :05:47.couldn't spend the next two years negotiating Brexit and refocusing
:05:48. > :05:51.the entire legislative programme to spend the next two years rejigging
:05:52. > :05:55.the mountain of legislation we are affected with. They have turned a
:05:56. > :05:58.logistical, unavoidable inevitability into a sense of
:05:59. > :06:06.momentum this weekend. Very clever presentation. There are going to be
:06:07. > :06:12.huge crises to come over this. Picking off the 1972 Act, putting it
:06:13. > :06:17.all into British law and legislation, rather than dependent
:06:18. > :06:22.on Europe, that is what the Brexiteers wanted. To that extent,
:06:23. > :06:27.she has thrown them a bit of red meat today? Yes, but we still don't
:06:28. > :06:32.know what Brexit is going to be. But a bit of red meat keeps you going
:06:33. > :06:41.for a while. Maybe get them through to lunch time. Today or tomorrow?
:06:42. > :06:44.Really just today. The tactic is to get some stuff about Brexit out, get
:06:45. > :06:50.them talking about that and then move onto agenda she wants,
:06:51. > :06:58.domestic. What do you think? Good luck with that! Are you reading my
:06:59. > :07:02.script coming up? It was on the autocue, I'm sorry! Clearly, she is
:07:03. > :07:07.accessed about not making his premiership all about Brexit. It
:07:08. > :07:12.will be, but she is desperate. She needs to define herself away from
:07:13. > :07:16.Brexit, who is Theresa May, what did she really believe? We have heard
:07:17. > :07:25.whispers, but the next few days as a chance to do that. The fringe, Liam
:07:26. > :07:29.Fox is talking at two fringes. Two opportunities for a story. David
:07:30. > :07:32.Davis as well. These two men of great talent and potentially great
:07:33. > :07:40.ego, they will not be able to stop themselves having feelings heard.
:07:41. > :07:44.And Boris. Boris who? I have not seen him on the fringes. Fringe
:07:45. > :07:48.meetings have been quite dull at party conferences recently. Because
:07:49. > :07:53.of this issue, I think people are going to pack them out. That is
:07:54. > :07:56.where words might be said, explosive words. We live for fringe meetings!
:07:57. > :07:59.The PM hopes her announcement will deal with Brexit on day one
:08:00. > :08:02.so the conference can get on to talk about other matters.
:08:03. > :08:11.But as you can see from this not so slim tome - the conference guide-
:08:12. > :08:16.there are plenty of other issues to talk, maybe even argue about.
:08:17. > :08:19.Our Ellie caught up with two Tory MPs from different sides
:08:20. > :08:22.of the party before they set off, to see what they think lies in store
:08:23. > :08:32.# Just can't wait to get on the road again
:08:33. > :08:36.# The life I love is making music with my friends
:08:37. > :08:40.# And I can't wait to get on the road again...#
:08:41. > :08:42.Do you actually enjoy going to conference?
:08:43. > :08:47.It's not as much fun as when you're not an MP,
:08:48. > :08:49.because now people want to talk to you and everybody
:08:50. > :08:55.But do you make contacts, do you network?
:08:56. > :08:58.Do think Theresa May gets nervous about conference,
:08:59. > :09:03.I think if you are performing on a big stage, whoever you are,
:09:04. > :09:05.you ought to have a few nerves jangling around.
:09:06. > :09:09.But she's a polished performer, I'm sure she'll know
:09:10. > :09:13.Theresa May will also know she has several contentious issues she needs
:09:14. > :09:17.It is perhaps not surprising, then, that day one of
:09:18. > :09:27.We're pretty well balanced between those of us like myself,
:09:28. > :09:29.representing constituencies with really high levels
:09:30. > :09:31.of research, science and agriculture, who will be very
:09:32. > :09:33.keen, but probably pragmatically understanding that we are not
:09:34. > :09:35.going to hear everything tomorrow, and the rest
:09:36. > :09:39.of the party who are just desperate for information.
:09:40. > :09:44.If they don't think the deal is going in the right way,
:09:45. > :09:46.they will want to say something about it.
:09:47. > :09:48.I think the time frame is pretty clear.
:09:49. > :09:50.We are going to trigger Article 50 at some point relatively
:09:51. > :09:54.That means we will get the negotiations done a good year
:09:55. > :09:58.The rest is going to be important meat on the bones.
:09:59. > :10:01.But, in terms of the core strategy, Theresa May goes into this
:10:02. > :10:04.So, a unified front, albeit perhaps fragile.
:10:05. > :10:07.But then there is the question of grammar schools.
:10:08. > :10:10.Depends whether we hear more about it.
:10:11. > :10:13.You know, the concept in its one-dimensional sense,
:10:14. > :10:17.you can't have a problem with that, can you?
:10:18. > :10:19.Giving parents choice, giving bright children the chance
:10:20. > :10:23.But, for me, for many of us, it has to be a package
:10:24. > :10:26.Our teachers are pretty stressed and overworked
:10:27. > :10:30.I'm not actually sure this is the right time.
:10:31. > :10:32.I would rather see emphasis being put on fairer funding.
:10:33. > :10:34.Constituencies like mine have been underfunded for decades.
:10:35. > :10:36.If you go into politics and government scared
:10:37. > :10:39.of your own shadow, unprepared to do anything bold or brave,
:10:40. > :10:44.I think there is no risk-free option.
:10:45. > :10:46.Of course, people have different views on grammar schools
:10:47. > :10:48.and it is a totemic political issue as well.
:10:49. > :10:51.But I think if you read the green paper, the Prime Minister has set
:10:52. > :10:53.out a very sensible, carefully calibrated approach,
:10:54. > :10:55.not just to grammar schools but the wider
:10:56. > :11:02.The new PM also faces big strategic decisions on expensive projects
:11:03. > :11:04.like airport expansion, an area even her Cabinet
:11:05. > :11:10.With all these big infrastructure projects, HS2, Heathrow,
:11:11. > :11:13.issues around fracking, nuclear as well, I think we have got
:11:14. > :11:16.to take the right decisions for the country, make sure Britain
:11:17. > :11:22.Each one of those is thorny in its own right.
:11:23. > :11:26.But what I think is most important is we look at it very carefully,
:11:27. > :11:30.That is where we all start to see the metal in Theresa,
:11:31. > :11:34.Whilst on the one hand, having a Prime Minister -
:11:35. > :11:37.nobody could have been more delighted than me that we managed
:11:38. > :11:40.to cut the tax credits changes - but having a Prime Minister
:11:41. > :11:42.that sticks to her guns, I'm not for U-turning,
:11:43. > :11:47.How confident are you, going to this conference,
:11:48. > :11:51.that it is all going to be sorted and you are going to be
:11:52. > :11:55.Well, people predicted an economic nosedive after the referendum.
:11:56. > :11:57.People said there would be political chaos.
:11:58. > :11:58.Actually, the economy has proved resilient.
:11:59. > :12:07.I think there is a sense of resolve on all sides of the party
:12:08. > :12:10.on all of these different issues to get behind this Prime Minister
:12:11. > :12:14.Last year, you got into a bit of trouble, being quite vocal
:12:15. > :12:17.Some suggestion you weren't a proper conservative.
:12:18. > :12:20.I think I am absolutely a proper conservative.
:12:21. > :12:24.I think my party needed reminding what conservative was.
:12:25. > :12:27.Our job is to help people who need a leg up.
:12:28. > :12:36.Her opening speech in Downing Street told me she absolutely is.
:12:37. > :12:39.Like all of these things, we will hear more about this week.
:12:40. > :12:50.# And I can't wait to get on the road again. #
:12:51. > :12:52.And we're joined now by the Transport Secretary,
:12:53. > :12:57.who was a leading Leave campaigner, Chris Grayling.
:12:58. > :13:08.Welcome back to the programme. The great repeal act, what exactly does
:13:09. > :13:11.it repeal? It repeal the 1972 European Communities Act. It means
:13:12. > :13:14.the European Court of Justice no longer has sway in the United
:13:15. > :13:19.Kingdom. It means the European Commission and Parliament no longer
:13:20. > :13:23.make laws for us. As of today, in our system, European law is supreme
:13:24. > :13:27.over UK law, and it repeal that. Except what it does is it
:13:28. > :13:31.consolidates all existing European legislation into British law. It
:13:32. > :13:35.would be more accurate to call it the great Consolidation act? Is This
:13:36. > :13:38.is what I argued for during the League campaign. The remaining
:13:39. > :13:43.campaign said you could not do it, it will take years, it will be a
:13:44. > :13:48.disaster. My response then is what it is now, the best way to do it is
:13:49. > :13:53.to consolidate existing legislation, much of which we will want to keep,
:13:54. > :13:57.the environmental measures, the workers' rights measures, what we
:13:58. > :14:00.want to do is to make sure we can get certainty before the event and
:14:01. > :14:04.after the event, for workers, businesses, but what the legal
:14:05. > :14:08.position will be. Over time, we have the freedom, outside the European
:14:09. > :14:11.Union, free from the control of the European Court, to change our legal
:14:12. > :14:17.system in the way that we want. It does mean we would leave the EU with
:14:18. > :14:24.all of this EU law still part of British law. Now, what would you
:14:25. > :14:27.wish to change in the aftermath? There is a whole variety of
:14:28. > :14:31.different things we will be looking at a change. For example, if you
:14:32. > :14:34.want a practical one, it is unlikely that after we have left the European
:14:35. > :14:37.Union we will still be paying child benefits to children that have never
:14:38. > :14:41.even entered the United Kingdom. That is the kind of thing we will be
:14:42. > :14:46.free to change after we have left. What else? Much of it we will want
:14:47. > :14:49.to keep, environmental measures, not all that has been done in the
:14:50. > :14:54.European Union for 40 years has been bad for Britain. How long will it
:14:55. > :14:58.take to pick all of this after we leave? Will be down to the
:14:59. > :15:05.Government to decide... Ten years? 20 years? It will take it as long as
:15:06. > :15:09.we choose. What is right and proper is that on the day after there is a
:15:10. > :15:12.degree of certainty for businesses. It would not be fair for a company
:15:13. > :15:16.to be operating under a set of rules, for there to be a cliff edge
:15:17. > :15:22.where they do not know what is going to happen the day after. Let's make
:15:23. > :15:25.it an evolution, not a revolution. A lot of the things you have to agree
:15:26. > :15:30.to enter negotiations mean it will have to remain law even after we
:15:31. > :15:33.leave? This clearly the case that if a business in this country is
:15:34. > :15:36.continuing to sell a product in the European Union, it will have to make
:15:37. > :15:40.the standards of the European Union. Those rules will apply. That is the
:15:41. > :15:44.same if we're selling to the United States, the rules of the United
:15:45. > :15:51.States would apply to a business planning to sell a product there.
:15:52. > :15:55.What happens if you lose the vote? It is inconceivable that Parliament
:15:56. > :15:59.can look at the view of the British public and ignore it. Parliament
:16:00. > :16:02.voted overwhelmingly for the referendum to take place in the
:16:03. > :16:03.first place, the people have given a mandate and I am certain Parliament
:16:04. > :16:13.will fulfil it. What would happen? You have a
:16:14. > :16:19.majority of only 12 and there was a majority for remain in the Commons
:16:20. > :16:24.and there is a large majority in the house of lords. If the parliament
:16:25. > :16:30.does not seamlessly agree for what you call the great repeal act, what
:16:31. > :16:37.would happen? Both houses are full of Democrats and they will respect
:16:38. > :16:44.the will of the people. But we could be faced with a constitutional
:16:45. > :16:47.crisis? We have taken the decision to leave and parliament voted for
:16:48. > :16:52.the referendum and it is inconceivable that Parliament would
:16:53. > :17:01.not allow that process to go forward. If the inconceivable
:17:02. > :17:08.happen, you'd have to cores and -- call an election. Inconceivable is a
:17:09. > :17:18.bit of a stretch. Plenty of voices, particularly in the House of Lords,
:17:19. > :17:23.would use this as a an opportunity to thwart you. And I don't think the
:17:24. > :17:27.House of Lords will turn around and say we should not fulfil that. There
:17:28. > :17:33.may be dissenting voices but they will view it as a democratic mandate
:17:34. > :17:37.that we have to fulfil. Has your party don soundings in the Commons
:17:38. > :17:42.to make sure you can get this through? I've not been involved in
:17:43. > :17:47.that discussion but parliament will respond to the will of the people.
:17:48. > :17:55.That's the way this country works. That's what you hope. We shall see
:17:56. > :17:59.how it works. We've been told by the Prime Minister this morning that
:18:00. > :18:06.article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. That means that we are
:18:07. > :18:10.out by Easter 2019. Can you confirm that those British members of the
:18:11. > :18:17.European Parliament currently in Strasberg, there will be no more for
:18:18. > :18:22.them after this. If we have left by the end of the two-year period. It
:18:23. > :18:26.is technically possible to extend it. After that period, there
:18:27. > :18:47.wouldn't be EP is after that point in 2019. -- MEPs. For Brexit to mean
:18:48. > :18:50.Brexit, the famous phrase, which is basically tautology. It would mean
:18:51. > :18:58.the freedom to have our own trade laws. It would mean the ability to
:18:59. > :19:07.do that? You are leading me to answer questions about the specific
:19:08. > :19:15.legal structures. It means our own free-trade deals? Correct. It would
:19:16. > :19:26.mean we are no longer subject to the rules of the European Court of
:19:27. > :19:30.Justice. Also correct. And we would have whatever control we desire over
:19:31. > :19:33.immigration? The Prime Minister has been clear that we need to control
:19:34. > :19:39.the flow of immigration into the country. Any of these counts as out
:19:40. > :19:47.from being a member of the single market. So can we agree that there
:19:48. > :19:51.is no way we can remain a member of the single market? There is no such
:19:52. > :19:53.thing as a member of the single market. There are a number of
:19:54. > :20:00.different trading agreements within the EU. We are effectively a member
:20:01. > :20:07.of the single market now but we can't be after this. The question
:20:08. > :20:12.you have asked me, do we want to be Norway, Switzerland, Canada when it
:20:13. > :20:16.comes to trading arrangements? We want to be the United Kingdom. We
:20:17. > :20:22.are the biggest customer of German car-makers, French farmers... I
:20:23. > :20:28.don't want to have the referendum fight again. It seems as black as
:20:29. > :20:34.black or as White is white that if you want all of that we cannot be a
:20:35. > :20:38.member, we can have access on terms yet to be agreed, we will have a
:20:39. > :20:43.relationship, but why cannot you say that we won't be a member in the way
:20:44. > :20:49.that we are currently a member of the single market? We won't be a
:20:50. > :20:54.member of the European Union but there is no such thing as a member
:20:55. > :21:00.of the single market. There is no single market in services, for
:21:01. > :21:04.example. There is but it is not as developed as goods. I believe we
:21:05. > :21:08.will end up with a trading partnership with the European Union
:21:09. > :21:14.on terms to be agreed that will work for both of us. Access but not
:21:15. > :21:18.membership. You cannot be a fully paid-up member of the single market
:21:19. > :21:22.without the European Court of Justice ruling on it and you don't
:21:23. > :21:32.want that. I don't understand your problem. Your pre-merging --
:21:33. > :21:36.prejudging the outcome of negotiations. We want the best
:21:37. > :21:39.possible trading arrangements with European neighbours and that is what
:21:40. > :21:44.we will work towards. Where different to the other countries
:21:45. > :21:48.that have been involved in these negotiations before. We have heard
:21:49. > :21:52.all that before in the referendum and we wanted some clarity on what
:21:53. > :21:59.it would mean. Transport, when will you give is the decision on runway
:22:00. > :22:02.expansion? I'm not going to set a date today. I've spent the summer
:22:03. > :22:06.looking at the three different options. We have three very well
:22:07. > :22:09.presented packages. The airport commission has looked at it
:22:10. > :22:14.carefully and the Prime Minister and I want to understand the options in
:22:15. > :22:19.detail and understand the strengths and weaknesses of each and we will
:22:20. > :22:28.reach our decision shortly. I'm not going to set a date on it. Shortly
:22:29. > :22:32.means in this year, surely. I don't want to wait unnecessarily long to
:22:33. > :22:39.take the decision but nor do I want to set a date so to to work towards
:22:40. > :22:43.that. Will there be a free vote? I need to identify the best option for
:22:44. > :22:49.Britain and take the best possible approach to get the support of
:22:50. > :22:56.parliament Porritt. Will there be a free vote? Decisions have not been
:22:57. > :23:04.taken but we will do the best for the interests of the country.
:23:05. > :23:12.Theresa May has said the options for an expansion to Heathrow are
:23:13. > :23:17.seriously flawed. Philip Hammond has described the Heathrow option as
:23:18. > :23:19.dead as a Norwegian parrot. Can you be sure that the Prime Minister and
:23:20. > :23:25.Anna Chancellor will vote for your proposal? We are looking at three
:23:26. > :23:35.options that are very new. One of them is Heathrow. Warrant -- they
:23:36. > :23:41.are very different options to what has been proposed in the past. They
:23:42. > :23:45.are all very well crafted proposals. They are interesting and have
:23:46. > :23:54.potential and we need to decide. That is why I am asking you. HS2,
:23:55. > :23:59.high-speed train, can you state categorically it will go ahead? It's
:24:00. > :24:02.due to start construction in the spring. The hybrids Bill Haas to
:24:03. > :24:13.continue its passage through the house of law -- the hybrid Bill Haas
:24:14. > :24:27.to continue through its passage in the house of lords. Will it be 2026?
:24:28. > :24:31.Will it be on-time and on budget? The select committee of MPs said it
:24:32. > :24:44.is unlikely and will certainly be over budget. I expected be
:24:45. > :24:49.absolutely clear and on -- expected to be absolutely on-time and on
:24:50. > :24:54.budget. The latest estimate for phase one, the core cast is ?14
:24:55. > :25:03.billion but there is contingency on top of that. How much? It is set to
:25:04. > :25:09.Treasury rules. It is always going to be over. If you really believed
:25:10. > :25:18.in the Northern powerhouse wouldn't this money be better spent instead
:25:19. > :25:22.of making it quicker to come to and Birmingham from London in under 90
:25:23. > :25:28.minutes, which you already can, wouldn't it be better to spend the
:25:29. > :25:43.money on state of the art road links between East and West in the north.
:25:44. > :25:49.I think we need to do both. We can't get more freight onto rail without
:25:50. > :25:55.creating more space. By taking fast trains off the West Coast main line
:25:56. > :26:02.which is already busy and put fast freight trains onto the new route,
:26:03. > :26:04.you create more capacity for places like Milton Keynes Dons Northampton,
:26:05. > :26:10.Coventry. It is about making sure we have a transport system that can
:26:11. > :26:14.cope with the demands of the 21st-century. Thank you very much.
:26:15. > :26:17.Now, as we speak, voters in Hungary are going to the polls to vote
:26:18. > :26:20.on whether to accept mandatory EU quotas for relocating migrants.
:26:21. > :26:22.The country's government has been campaigning for voters to reject
:26:23. > :26:24.the EU's proposals and has run a highly controversial campaign,
:26:25. > :26:27.accusing migrants of terrorism and crime - and the Prime Minister
:26:28. > :26:30.Viktor Orban has said today he'll quit if the country votes
:26:31. > :26:35.In response to the ongoing migrant crisis, the EU wants to establish
:26:36. > :26:36.a permanent European resettlement programme, under which,
:26:37. > :26:39.member states must take their fair share of asylum seekers,
:26:40. > :26:42.depending on the size of each country's population and economy.
:26:43. > :26:45.If countries refuse, the European Commission has proposed
:26:46. > :26:49.that they would incur a financial penalty of 250,000 euros per person,
:26:50. > :26:54.to cover the cost of another country taking them.
:26:55. > :26:56.Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said the plan
:26:57. > :27:01.Last year, Hungary rejected an emergency EU plan that would have
:27:02. > :27:06.seen tens of thousands of refugees transferred out of the country
:27:07. > :27:08.in return for accepting a quota of almost 1300 refugees
:27:09. > :27:15.As an EU border country, Hungary has received 18,500
:27:16. > :27:22.In 2015, it received the most asylum applications relative
:27:23. > :27:27.to its population of any EU state - 1800 for every 100,000 local people,
:27:28. > :27:29.though the majority of those then travelled onwards to other
:27:30. > :27:36.Although the referendum result will have no affect
:27:37. > :27:38.on the EU's decision, the Hungarian government hopes
:27:39. > :27:41.the weight of public opinion will help it resist the plans,
:27:42. > :27:44.running a very controversial referendum campaign.
:27:45. > :27:46.For example, this poster saying migrants carried out
:27:47. > :27:55.We're joined now from Budapest by our Correspondent, Nick Thorpe.
:27:56. > :28:03.I understand that the polls are pretty clear that the government
:28:04. > :28:08.will win this referendum but it needs a turnout of at least 50% for
:28:09. > :28:19.it to matter. What indication of turnout so far? As of 11am, turnout
:28:20. > :28:23.was just over 16% of the electorate. We have an electrode of 8.3 million,
:28:24. > :28:29.the government is campaigning strongly for a no vote. The
:28:30. > :28:36.government have framed the question in such a way that it is hard to
:28:37. > :28:48.vote, yes, we do want this imposed on us. The issue of turnout is
:28:49. > :28:55.important because the opposition have campaigned not to vote or to
:28:56. > :29:01.spoil votes. Even if the government wins on the numbers, if more people
:29:02. > :29:06.vote against the quotas, is it a symbolic defeat for the government
:29:07. > :29:14.if that was to happen? Some people will argue it would be a symbolic
:29:15. > :29:19.defeat if they don't get 50%. We've heard that ministers are backing off
:29:20. > :29:25.the whole issue of turnout. They are hoping for at least 3 million people
:29:26. > :29:31.to vote. Even 4 million which would be the 50%, voting no to migrant
:29:32. > :29:36.quotas. They say that all of those votes will give them a strong moral
:29:37. > :29:40.hand. In the words of the Prime Minister, it will sharpen the
:29:41. > :29:44.Hungarian sword in the battles ahead. Thank you very much.
:29:45. > :29:47.Malin Bjork is Swedish MEP and Vice Chair of
:29:48. > :29:50.the Confederal Group of the European United Left
:29:51. > :30:05.Welcome to the programme. The quota system proposed already seem to be
:30:06. > :30:09.dying if the Hungarians vote the way they are expected to today, that
:30:10. > :30:16.will kill it, will it not? I think we should have it as a point of
:30:17. > :30:22.departure whether we have seen that Hungary is a model in any of the
:30:23. > :30:29.fields that we want hungry -- Europe to be. I don't think Hungary is the
:30:30. > :30:34.model. I don't think we should give him the kind of weight that he
:30:35. > :30:36.actually claims. He wants more weight to this referendum. I don't
:30:37. > :30:47.think we should give it to him. It is not just Hungary, is it? There
:30:48. > :30:51.are meant to be 100,000 migrants covered by the quota system, fewer
:30:52. > :30:57.than 5% have been covered by it. It is just not happening, whether
:30:58. > :31:01.Hungary votes for or against? No, it is totally... But that means it is
:31:02. > :31:05.not operational, it is simply not working. There are serious
:31:06. > :31:09.criticisms to have towards implementing partners in this. But I
:31:10. > :31:13.do think when it comes to the political course, Hungary is playing
:31:14. > :31:18.a very dangerous, racist and right nationalist game. I don't think we
:31:19. > :31:23.should adapt to it. If it comes to it, we have to be prepared to be
:31:24. > :31:26.behind those that do not want to be the Europe that is taking
:31:27. > :31:31.responsibility globally. Let me clarify what you mean by that. The
:31:32. > :31:35.Foreign Minister of Luxembourg has already said that Hungary should be
:31:36. > :31:43.expelled from the European Union. Is that what you are saying as well?
:31:44. > :31:46.No, no. You know what I think? As a progressive politician on the left
:31:47. > :31:51.side, I do have a lot of criticisms to the European Union. But there are
:31:52. > :31:57.planets apart from the kind of models that Viktor Orban is trying
:31:58. > :32:01.to build, where he does not respect human rights, laws and media
:32:02. > :32:07.freedoms, and now he attacks refugee rights. Given all of that, let's
:32:08. > :32:12.accept what you say is true about that, others may dispute it, but
:32:13. > :32:15.let's accept that as true, why should Hungary remain a member of
:32:16. > :32:20.the European Union? Well, it is up to each country that has voted to
:32:21. > :32:26.stay, and voted to become members, voting to stay, I don't think Orban
:32:27. > :32:30.has any intention of leaving EU. I think he wants more influence in the
:32:31. > :32:33.EU. I think he wants more influence domestic league through the
:32:34. > :32:36.referendum and more influence in the EU. The question the rest of the
:32:37. > :32:40.countries have to ask themselves is if we are going to give it to him or
:32:41. > :32:44.adapt to his politics in any of these fields he is active in? I
:32:45. > :32:47.think we should make a stand against it. We should have political forces
:32:48. > :32:53.in other countries that have exactly the same kind of agendas, which we
:32:54. > :32:57.don't want to see strengthened. Isn't the problem that may be
:32:58. > :33:02.Hungary is on the trend, and you are not? We have seem the right, some
:33:03. > :33:08.may call it the far right even, on the march in Austria, Poland and in
:33:09. > :33:13.Hungary, even in Germany, with the recent elections in Berlin and
:33:14. > :33:15.Angela Merkel's backyard, even progressive social Democratic
:33:16. > :33:23.Sweden, your third biggest party is now the Sweden, Democrats, a hard
:33:24. > :33:28.right nativist party. Why are forces on the move, and while the forces
:33:29. > :33:32.used and four on the defensive? The more progressive forces, I think
:33:33. > :33:36.they are growing in many countries also, such as Spain, Ireland and
:33:37. > :33:41.other countries. It is not just for the left, it is for the broader
:33:42. > :33:44.political spectrum to counteract nationalist, right-wing and racist
:33:45. > :33:49.forces. We know where they lead, a dead end. It is a challenge in the
:33:50. > :33:54.European countries. Why is Europe going in this direction? In 2016,
:33:55. > :34:03.why are the forces of the rights so strong? To be honest, I think we
:34:04. > :34:08.have to be a little bit more humble and say are we failing people in
:34:09. > :34:12.some way? Yes, austerity policies are not working. Inequalities have
:34:13. > :34:17.grown for over 20 years in Europe. Of course it is a failure. We are
:34:18. > :34:21.capable of saving banks, but not refugees. People see this. It is
:34:22. > :34:25.political failure and I think we have to sit down and create
:34:26. > :34:28.different pacifists. What is happening now is worrying. I see
:34:29. > :34:33.some of the political forces in Europe. -- create different
:34:34. > :34:42.patterns. I see parties in Europe adapting to racism nationalist
:34:43. > :34:45.voices. I think we have to be the different parties that will not
:34:46. > :34:53.adapt to nationalist stories. They paint imaginary enemies. A huge
:34:54. > :34:57.chunk of Hungary's public spending comes from the European Union, net
:34:58. > :35:01.contributors like Sweden and the United Kingdom. If Hungary votes
:35:02. > :35:08.this way, should that continue? Should we continue to bankroll it?
:35:09. > :35:11.The way Europe and the European Union, individual members develop,
:35:12. > :35:17.of course we should lead discussions about money and heel spending to the
:35:18. > :35:24.respect for rule of law, the respect for human rights and the respect for
:35:25. > :35:26.international rights that are being infringed by the Hungarian
:35:27. > :35:28.government. Of course, we have to have such a discussion and it has to
:35:29. > :35:32.be frank. It's just gone 11.35,
:35:33. > :35:34.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:35:35. > :36:15.in Scotland who leave us now The American ambassador, has told us
:36:16. > :36:25.how to get more to risk, to come here. I would not get them to try to
:36:26. > :36:35.pronounce some of the names. Nobody likes a sure. But what next for the
:36:36. > :36:39.Conservatives? This morning we have had more about what they have
:36:40. > :36:44.planned, but they have not got the breakthrough that they hope for, the
:36:45. > :36:56.relentless march upwards at the assembly elections went backwards.
:36:57. > :37:04.Thank you for joining me. We have an article today, about the future of
:37:05. > :37:12.the Tories in Wales. Theresa May has said that by March next year she is
:37:13. > :37:21.going to trigger article 50, is that wise to trigger so soon? Not at all.
:37:22. > :37:30.She has mapped out the strategy, and she said that she would always
:37:31. > :37:37.trigger it this year, the early part of next year, confederated the
:37:38. > :37:42.Cabinet, and herself, cheering the Cabinet committee that is going to
:37:43. > :37:52.be dealing with this matter. We have got the death approach for the
:37:53. > :37:59.negotiations. But concealed, triggering in the middle of March,
:38:00. > :38:05.German and French elections? It is two years of negotiations, it does
:38:06. > :38:09.not have to be two years if it is concluded sooner, but interestingly,
:38:10. > :38:15.the Prime Minister has talked about giving this indication of when
:38:16. > :38:20.article 50 is going to be triggered, interesting dynamic and she has
:38:21. > :38:26.given certainty to that triggering of article 50, and the rest of the
:38:27. > :38:34.negotiations, are going to fall into place. That is going to put the
:38:35. > :38:47.legislative framework into place. I have destroyed this, as a leading
:38:48. > :38:55.Brexiteer, -- described. Free access to the single market, no curbs on
:38:56. > :39:06.immigration? Is that possible? Anything is possible. What is clear,
:39:07. > :39:10.the European Commission and European Union have got to outline what they
:39:11. > :39:17.are looking for. This is a two-way relationship. And trade with
:39:18. > :39:22.Britain, just as important as trade with Europe. We have got this
:39:23. > :39:32.referendum at Hungary, communities feeling as though the voice is not
:39:33. > :39:39.being listened to. The old structures that that propped up. But
:39:40. > :39:45.can you see how it would be difficult to allow the United
:39:46. > :39:54.Kingdom to have tarrif free access to the single market, and curbs on
:39:55. > :40:02.immigration? As I have just said, I think what the European Union needs
:40:03. > :40:04.to do is actually look at the old structures, that propped up the
:40:05. > :40:10.European Union and realise that is not going to last. They have got to
:40:11. > :40:15.get a blueprint for the future. We have had the referendum, June 23,
:40:16. > :40:21.and the British people instructed the government to renegotiate the
:40:22. > :40:26.relationship, and some concerns about negotiating on that. That is
:40:27. > :40:41.what we are going to be walking off. What about immigration, being such a
:40:42. > :40:44.large reason for voting Brexit, curbing would be worth it for
:40:45. > :40:54.trading goods? I think that is a lazy view. We have got a whole range
:40:55. > :40:58.of issues, on both sides. You cannot isolate one issue. We are defining a
:40:59. > :41:05.relationship, that for the last 40 years, has governed this country, it
:41:06. > :41:19.has been governed by the European Union. What people voted for, taking
:41:20. > :41:26.back control. Where those decisions are taken... People are going to
:41:27. > :41:38.vote. Your not giving details. Do you think it would worth it?
:41:39. > :41:43.Having to pay tariffs on certain goods, to curb immigrations? The
:41:44. > :41:52.negotiations have to be a two-way process. It is not about an
:41:53. > :41:58.individual view. It is about getting the best overall deal for the United
:41:59. > :42:04.Kingdom, and Europe. You have got an article in the Sunday Times. Talking
:42:05. > :42:11.about forming a government at Wales, but you are for the robbery from
:42:12. > :42:21.government than at any point since devolution. If you look at what we
:42:22. > :42:29.achieved that constituencies, we slashed majorities... Third in all
:42:30. > :42:40.regions. But we knew that was going to be the case. We had the rise of
:42:41. > :42:49.Ukip, you have got to accept that. But they are out of ideas. I have
:42:50. > :42:53.also said in the article, fed up of Wales being led, I want us to lead,
:42:54. > :42:59.looking at us positively rather than pointing out the negatives. We can
:43:00. > :43:09.achieve so much more, the government has got a new mandate. The leader of
:43:10. > :43:16.the government in Wales, far more popular than you, the Leader of the
:43:17. > :43:21.Opposition, more popular, you said the Conservatives at a six year high
:43:22. > :43:28.in Wales, but yours is not. I will change my aftershave. Seriously, do
:43:29. > :43:36.you think you need a change in leadership? I am working closely
:43:37. > :43:45.with colleagues at Westminster, a robust group, offering all the
:43:46. > :43:51.evidence. But Wales cannot go to the extremes, left or right, we need to
:43:52. > :43:58.be governing from the centre. And if you looked at last week's Labour
:43:59. > :44:03.conference, talking about changes to the executives, the Conservatives
:44:04. > :44:14.want nobody to be left behind. The most important American in Britain.
:44:15. > :44:26.The American ambassador has been in Wales, and we caught up with him in
:44:27. > :44:28.Bangor, after he was talking to some students.
:44:29. > :44:30.Well they want to talk about the election and
:44:31. > :44:32.the Presidential election, of course, is something
:44:33. > :44:42.that everyone I meet is following closely here.
:44:43. > :44:45.We follow back home what's happening in Wales and the United Kingdom
:44:46. > :45:02.But I reminded them, two great Welsh Americans fought it
:45:03. > :45:05.out for President 200 years ago, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson.
:45:06. > :45:07.You go read what they said about each other, it'd
:45:08. > :45:09.make the paint peel but they got through that!
:45:10. > :45:11.The system is designed to be contentious, democracy
:45:12. > :45:17.You were talking to some of the students, about something
:45:18. > :45:24.happening - a sense of unease back at home and here.
:45:25. > :45:27.Is that a reflection of some of the debates, your democracy,
:45:28. > :45:35.I think it's happening on both sides of the Atlantic, the isle,
:45:36. > :45:41.this growing gulf, people talking at each other or past each other.
:45:42. > :46:00.Some may say the UK has been burning bridges
:46:01. > :46:17.Before, we had been asked what we thought as friends.
:46:18. > :46:26.We said it is up to you, we care, value a strong UK in a strong EU.
:46:27. > :46:27.Whatever happens, this relationship will be -
:46:28. > :46:33.as President Obama put it - unbreakable.
:46:34. > :46:42.Ford are looking at how they invest in Wales.
:46:43. > :46:49.Must be concerns for people looking to America and business?
:46:50. > :46:54.Of course it creates uncertainties but what we are focused
:46:55. > :47:01.on are all the things that don't change.
:47:02. > :47:03.And the fact is, we are the number one investor.
:47:04. > :47:06.One million British people wake up and go to work for American
:47:07. > :47:10.One million American people wake up and go to work
:47:11. > :47:14.Can that still continue, the working relationship?
:47:15. > :47:17.Not only can it, it did yesterday, it is today, it will tomorrow,
:47:18. > :47:19.government to government, business to business
:47:20. > :47:31.Our First Minister has been in the US, this month.
:47:32. > :47:36.He's got concerns but the message was Wales is open for business.
:47:37. > :47:40.Do you think that's a message people are buying into in the US?
:47:41. > :47:48.It demonstrated partnerships that exist, not getting complacent,
:47:49. > :47:55.This takes daily nurturing, government level,
:47:56. > :48:09.Here for the first time in north Wales.
:48:10. > :48:15.Hoping you've enjoyed the countryside.
:48:16. > :48:18.How do we persuade, as a nation, Wales, to get more people
:48:19. > :48:23.Quite happy to go to London, Edinburgh...
:48:24. > :48:30.Wonderful thing was done for President Obama,
:48:31. > :48:33.who was the first sitting US President to visit Wales.
:48:34. > :48:42.They did that great promotional video about Wales
:48:43. > :48:43.with Matthew Reese, Damien Lewis, many others.
:48:44. > :48:52.I wouldn't lead with getting them to try to pronounce some of the names!
:48:53. > :48:58.Get them here first then show them the long sign, suck them in,
:48:59. > :49:17.How is your council? Have you been happy with the service you have been
:49:18. > :49:21.dating? The service seems to vary. And the leader of one of the largest
:49:22. > :49:28.councils has told us it is time to cooperate. The government is going
:49:29. > :49:34.to review the blueprint of how they should look in the future.
:49:35. > :49:36.Wherever we live, we've all got something to say
:49:37. > :49:39.But it seems some local authorities are better than others.
:49:40. > :49:41.This report used 40 indicators, ranging from school attendance
:49:42. > :49:44.records to use of leisure facilities, to map out council
:49:45. > :49:50.Where we've got comparable indicators, in around two thirds
:49:51. > :49:52.of those cases we've seen an improvement across Wales.
:49:53. > :49:54.Equally important, I think, is the range of performance
:49:55. > :49:59.and the difference between the best and worst performers.
:50:00. > :50:02.And in over half of the indicators comparable, we've seen a narrowing
:50:03. > :50:08.of the gap between the best and worst performers.
:50:09. > :50:11.That said, there has also been a slight deterioration in some
:50:12. > :50:13.areas, and there remain big differences between some councils,
:50:14. > :50:18.including how they deal with your waste, for example.
:50:19. > :50:20.This estuary has long been a political boundary.
:50:21. > :50:25.These days it separates Carmarthenshire from Swansea.
:50:26. > :50:28.Two neighbouring local authorities, and yet their record when it comes
:50:29. > :50:30.to how much waste is sent to landfill couldn't
:50:31. > :50:35.Swansea is the worst performing council with 38% of all rubbish
:50:36. > :50:44.Carmarthenshire on the other hand is the best - just 5%.
:50:45. > :50:56.Well, Swansea Council, whose recycling rate is higher
:50:57. > :50:59.than the national target said it has chosen to predominantly use a local
:51:00. > :51:03.landfill site for the next four years at a time when other councils
:51:04. > :51:08.have opted to incinerate their non-recycable rubbish.
:51:09. > :51:11.So-called bed blocking, delays in discharging people
:51:12. > :51:14.from hospital due to lack of suitable arrangements elsewhere
:51:15. > :51:18.is another area where people have had very different experiences,
:51:19. > :51:26.Conwy is the best performer with fewer than one person per 1,000
:51:27. > :51:30.over 75 having to wait longer in hospital than is necessary.
:51:31. > :51:33.In Cardiff, the figure was 11/1000 - more than double the rate
:51:34. > :51:43.I would suspect there is an issue about community resources that might
:51:44. > :51:47.be affected by demographic and geographic issues -
:51:48. > :51:53.if you have a rural area, you're relying on community GPs
:51:54. > :51:55.whereas in the cities you could possibly have a higher
:51:56. > :52:18.It is possible it is a geographic issue.
:52:19. > :52:23.It is clear that every local authority has strengths and
:52:24. > :52:39.weaknesses. What can be done to ensure people have equal resources.
:52:40. > :52:51.The answer, cooperation. Not every council has enough capacity, we can
:52:52. > :52:57.share offices, regional working, share practices. We need to look at
:52:58. > :53:10.local government family. Make all areas rise. It seems the Local
:53:11. > :53:12.On Tuesday, the local government statement,
:53:13. > :53:16.members on his vision, having torn up his predecessor's map
:53:17. > :53:17.for council mergers, Mark Drakeford is expected
:53:18. > :53:19.to outline proposals for the existing local authorities
:53:20. > :53:23.to work more closely together on a regional basis.
:53:24. > :53:34.we have seen the variation in performance, is it inevitable that
:53:35. > :53:45.we have got different councils, performing differently at different
:53:46. > :53:49.aspects? Democratic organisations and although they have got
:53:50. > :54:01.frameworks, they have got to provide some services, at different levels.
:54:02. > :54:09.Choices to make. Some merit in saying you have to work together.
:54:10. > :54:25.How difficult, how easy, to achieve that? The fore for misses, --
:54:26. > :54:31.performances, for different measures. You have got to find out,
:54:32. > :54:39.where is the best practice, improving at a range of different
:54:40. > :54:45.areas. Recycling, school performance, and one of the main
:54:46. > :54:55.differences, the percentage of care plans, gone from 58 to 84%. Using
:54:56. > :55:02.this information effectively. That issue, sharing best practice, why
:55:03. > :55:09.has Swansea not been asking neighbours, why has not been
:55:10. > :55:15.happening? Local councils have been coming together, effectively
:55:16. > :55:19.working. I think what we have got to put to one side, it is not going to
:55:20. > :55:27.be a big announcement on Tuesday, that is not going to happen. But
:55:28. > :55:32.what we are going to see is an encouragement of the good practices
:55:33. > :55:50.and formalising some of those arrangements. Can we expect an
:55:51. > :55:59.juicy, carrot and a stick? If you don't, cuts? We could see that, but
:56:00. > :56:07.at the end of the day, a citizen of the country has the right to good
:56:08. > :56:13.services. I think you could have that approach, but essentially we
:56:14. > :56:20.have been talking about this. Local councils need to focus on these
:56:21. > :56:25.services. It is about good services. Putting the citizens first, is going
:56:26. > :56:32.to mean that local councils come together. It could be carrot and
:56:33. > :56:40.stick. This is not the first time that it has been talked about. Local
:56:41. > :56:45.government reorganised itself at Scotland, but still talking about it
:56:46. > :56:54.here. We have been talking about it for a long time. But the government
:56:55. > :57:00.thinks too many councils, fewer would be an answer, why has that not
:57:01. > :57:10.been happening? I do not think they want to spend three years
:57:11. > :57:15.reorganising. Some good practices, and some of the small practices
:57:16. > :57:20.already teaming up with others, to provide services across the country.
:57:21. > :57:28.A lot of good practice. I do not think they are keen to take on
:57:29. > :57:39.reorganisation. But if they can work together, so easily, why not have
:57:40. > :57:42.fewer? Why 22 chief executives? I think they are going to come
:57:43. > :57:56.together, and possibly merge voluntarily. Shared officers. Not 22
:57:57. > :58:05.trading standards officers. Services are going to be shared, not just
:58:06. > :58:13.local government, but better collaboration for other agencies.
:58:14. > :58:23.Better arrangements between them. When you said voluntary measures,
:58:24. > :58:27.how many? -- mergers? I think we need to move away with the accession
:58:28. > :58:38.from numbers, but when they want to come together, I think we are going
:58:39. > :58:41.to seem less. No number? No. Do not forget, you can get the latest
:58:42. > :58:45.political news And we're joined now by the former
:58:46. > :59:04.Work and Pensions Secretary and Leave campaigner,
:59:05. > :59:21.Iain Duncan Smith. it you said we could be out of the
:59:22. > :59:26.European Union by 2018? My senses if you keep their process as simple as
:59:27. > :59:30.possible and don't try to get special pleading and try to be a
:59:31. > :59:34.member of the single market which they are not going to grant you, if
:59:35. > :59:41.you go for a clear and simple position on trade and find an
:59:42. > :59:48.agreement then the more complex issues then disappear. Theresa May
:59:49. > :59:56.has said that when she brings the act forward to repeal the 1972 act,
:59:57. > :00:00.at the same time you binding the European Law and you speed the
:00:01. > :00:04.process up. Keeping it simple, keeping up pace is what we
:00:05. > :00:10.recommended. It allows you to get the end point quicker.
:00:11. > :00:15.You talk about member of the single market, Chris Grayling told me there
:00:16. > :00:22.was no such thing, which slightly puzzled me. You clearly think that
:00:23. > :00:25.there is. What you want, as I understand it, is a free-trade
:00:26. > :00:31.agreement with the European Union. That could not be done by 2018? We
:00:32. > :00:33.want free trade. There are two approaches to getting free trade
:00:34. > :00:39.with the European Union. The first is that you say, OK, in this
:00:40. > :00:45.process, if we sympathise and ask ourselves, if we now have a new
:00:46. > :00:50.relationship, we have left, we want capital goods, we want to access
:00:51. > :00:54.each other's markets, it benefits you more than us, but we are happy
:00:55. > :00:58.not to have tariff barriers on your trade, we have an agreement of no
:00:59. > :01:03.tariff barriers. Financial services are outside, a separate issue, more
:01:04. > :01:07.of a regulatory issue. That is also approaching a deal on equivalence
:01:08. > :01:11.that we could accelerate. The point I am saying is if you do not go down
:01:12. > :01:14.the road trying to nominate individual bits and pieces and say
:01:15. > :01:18.it is a good agreement for us both, you could reach that by agreement.
:01:19. > :01:24.If you don't and you can't, you could fall back on the WTO
:01:25. > :01:27.arrangements and say, well, later on, we will continue that
:01:28. > :01:32.negotiation discussion to decide whether or not we want a free-trade
:01:33. > :01:36.position. If you fall back on that, what you say to the boss of Nissan,
:01:37. > :01:42.who says he will not invest again in this unless the government back row
:01:43. > :01:46.compensates him, he faces tariffs? The answer to that is that first of
:01:47. > :01:50.all I did not believe we will end up in a situation where it is, in any
:01:51. > :01:56.way, a financial benefit for the European Union to want to impose any
:01:57. > :02:01.kind tariff. Right now you are 12% better off anyway. The level of the
:02:02. > :02:06.pound has made it 12% more competitive with European partners,
:02:07. > :02:10.even if you slapped on 10% tariff. It goes up and down, but you asking
:02:11. > :02:15.him to take investment decisions, multi-billion pound decisions, head
:02:16. > :02:24.of Jaguar, saying roughly the same thing, at a time of real
:02:25. > :02:28.uncertainty. Until it is resolved, investment in Britain will slow
:02:29. > :02:31.down, if not dry up? They invest because this is a darn good place to
:02:32. > :02:34.sell your businesses. You heard from the head of the publishing sector in
:02:35. > :02:38.Germany, he said Britain in five years' time will be much more
:02:39. > :02:47.profitable than anywhere else and will be the boom place. Outside the
:02:48. > :02:50.European Union it will be more flexible to set out arrangements. I
:02:51. > :02:55.am with him on this. I was in business before I came into
:02:56. > :02:58.politics. Nobody knows what the future holds for anything. For car
:02:59. > :03:02.makers and others that want to build stuff, they are here because they
:03:03. > :03:08.want a flexible workforce, much lower levels of cost, and a much
:03:09. > :03:12.better contract law base. 85% of Nissan's output goes to the single
:03:13. > :03:18.market. That is right, they also sell here. 15%? You are not suddenly
:03:19. > :03:22.going to meet a massive tariff wall, a closet is not in the interests of
:03:23. > :03:27.the European Union to set up a massive tariffs. Guess who sells
:03:28. > :03:30.more to us than we do to them? The European Union. The Germans
:03:31. > :03:34.themselves are behind-the-scenes talking to us. We had a lot of that
:03:35. > :03:40.during the referendum. Let me move onto some other things. Damian Green
:03:41. > :03:43.is now running your old department. He is scrapping repeated tests for
:03:44. > :03:51.the seriously disabled, people that you know are not going to be able to
:03:52. > :03:55.improve. Why didn't you do that? We wanted to change this, it was a
:03:56. > :03:59.programme given to us by the last Labour government, we did quite a
:04:00. > :04:02.lot to improve it. The big problem, the programme as it exists at the
:04:03. > :04:06.moment, it does not deal with health conditions, it deals with ability to
:04:07. > :04:09.work. That is the problem. If you want to scrap it for people with
:04:10. > :04:13.health conditions, you have to change the criteria by which they
:04:14. > :04:25.are being assessed. That has always been the issue. For disability
:04:26. > :04:27.payments, it is a different matter. They are assessed on their
:04:28. > :04:30.condition. The problem for that... He will stop the assessments of
:04:31. > :04:32.people that are seriously disabled, why didn't you do that? This is not
:04:33. > :04:34.seriously disabled, it is people that suffer from sickness
:04:35. > :04:38.conditions, not necessarily full-time disability. There are two
:04:39. > :04:41.elements. When I was in Government, we have always set out a process
:04:42. > :04:47.that said we needed to change the way the sickness benefit system was
:04:48. > :04:51.assessed. That was so you could rule out conditions, some progressive,
:04:52. > :04:55.some absolute, on a medical basis, on the approval of the Health
:04:56. > :04:58.Service, so they would say this is a condition that will change, it will
:04:59. > :05:02.mean they cannot work now but they might be able to work for a bit. You
:05:03. > :05:07.put it into a box marked medical conditions. That was already on the
:05:08. > :05:13.box. He has just done that, to acclaim. Why didn't you do it, if it
:05:14. > :05:16.is that simple? We needed to get agreement in Government and we have
:05:17. > :05:23.not reached the Provo ease approval. It is a wider plan. This could have
:05:24. > :05:30.been incremented on its own? But you have to change the way you do it. I
:05:31. > :05:33.was in favour of a bigger plan that brought in changes all into one,
:05:34. > :05:36.because they are competing with each other and do not have the kind of
:05:37. > :05:41.effect that you want. It is the right thing to do. Until now, there
:05:42. > :05:43.have not been a huge number of assessments taking place because the
:05:44. > :05:50.system has not been able to cover it. There is a lot of talk about
:05:51. > :05:54.trying to reposition the Tory party on the centre ground, even the
:05:55. > :06:01.centre-left, talking about worker's rights and so on. It is not credible
:06:02. > :06:05.until she does something. 6 million people earn less than the Living
:06:06. > :06:08.Wage, after six years of Conservative government. 6 million
:06:09. > :06:12.people earn less than the Living Wage. That is the reality, not Tory
:06:13. > :06:22.erect a wreck that we are hearing in the hall. -- that is the Tory
:06:23. > :06:29.rhetoric. Raising the minimum wage was making sure that you identify
:06:30. > :06:33.that and raise the blood. There are still 6 million below. The mantra of
:06:34. > :06:42.this government was to make work pay. 50% of families in poverty have
:06:43. > :06:46.at least one family member working. They are still in poverty, waiting,
:06:47. > :06:53.doing difficult and unpleasant jobs, long hours, they are still in
:06:54. > :06:59.poverty. Many people in this country work and still it is the equivalent
:07:00. > :07:03.of poverty. That does not pay, work does not pay for them. Huge problems
:07:04. > :07:13.down the low skill level of work. This is the one area, the level of
:07:14. > :07:18.skills at that point is arguably some of the lowest in the Western
:07:19. > :07:21.world. Companies too often do not invest in skills because of the
:07:22. > :07:26.nature of the tax credit system, you have them in packets of 16 hours, it
:07:27. > :07:29.is not worth investing. Universal Credit will change all of that quite
:07:30. > :07:34.dramatically. It allows people to work more of the hours, invest more
:07:35. > :07:38.in them. The second aspect is back to the migration issue. That has had
:07:39. > :07:43.a very damaging effect on low workers. There are two elements of
:07:44. > :07:46.this. It is not just the statutory migration, it is that what happened
:07:47. > :07:53.is that a lot of people come for under one year. They do part-time
:07:54. > :07:57.work, they claim full benefits, Migration Watch proved it is over 4
:07:58. > :08:03.billion per year. That allows them to go and do cash in hand work. It
:08:04. > :08:07.is a big problem, it has only now become clear how damaging that has
:08:08. > :08:11.become to British people working at low income level. What does this
:08:12. > :08:16.party, if it is this self-styled Workers Party, what does it have to
:08:17. > :08:21.do in a country where 6 million people get less than the Living
:08:22. > :08:24.Wage, 50% of people in poverty are already in work and poverty levels
:08:25. > :08:36.among those in work are at record levels. So much for the worker's
:08:37. > :08:40.party? The answer is it has to do a lot, we have been talking about
:08:41. > :08:45.Brexit a lot, Theresa May has dropped a lot of hints about what
:08:46. > :08:50.she wants to do. The announcement yesterday morning about this massive
:08:51. > :08:55.review, led by a Blairite, Matthew Taylor, to completely re-examine
:08:56. > :09:02.employment rights. Thereby meaning, for the low paid and the casual
:09:03. > :09:09.workers, holiday pay for Uber drivers, it opens a massive area of
:09:10. > :09:20.things, grammar schools... You need high-quality technology schools to
:09:21. > :09:25.up-skill its? She has all of this on her agenda, possibly more
:09:26. > :09:31.interesting than even Brexit. I was planning not to mention Brexit in
:09:32. > :09:34.this segment, but I think I did. There was a lot of flesh to be put
:09:35. > :09:41.on his bones before it is convincing? Theresa May is playing a
:09:42. > :09:45.political game of trying to dump the nasty party image, become a more
:09:46. > :09:52.compassionate conservative. She is changing from the David Cameron era,
:09:53. > :09:56.instead of being the bottom 10% or 15% of people that he was focusing
:09:57. > :10:02.on, as well as the wealthier elite, she is looking at the people earning
:10:03. > :10:07.more than ?16,000, up to ?21,000, those who have children that are not
:10:08. > :10:11.on free school meals, not the most deprived, she calls them the just
:10:12. > :10:15.managing classes, they might have one for holiday each year, they
:10:16. > :10:19.might want to send their kids to piano lessons or the local Football
:10:20. > :10:24.Club, they are not the poorest people on welfare. That could have
:10:25. > :10:26.an impact on what you're saying, it could also undermine her reputation
:10:27. > :10:31.for being compassionate if she is seen to be abandoning the people
:10:32. > :10:34.that need help most. There is always a political case for doing something
:10:35. > :10:38.for Middle Britain, where most people are. They call at Middle
:10:39. > :10:46.America over there and so on. But these are not the in work but in
:10:47. > :10:50.poverty. Being a worker's party, one that dines out on its support for
:10:51. > :10:54.work, if it is to do anything, it has to do something about these
:10:55. > :11:00.people? The key issue is what the economic policies are in this new
:11:01. > :11:03.government. Nobody on the programme this morning has talked about the
:11:04. > :11:13.deficit, which George Osborne framed everything around, to the point
:11:14. > :11:16.where, as they know better than anyone, he struggles to get welfare
:11:17. > :11:21.reforms affected because of our budget cuts that hit those on low
:11:22. > :11:25.income in work. Until we know the degree to which the framing of that
:11:26. > :11:29.deficit strategy has changed, we will not really know the space they
:11:30. > :11:33.will have to make sure that does not happen over the next few years and
:11:34. > :11:38.the opposite happens. That applies to all of these issues, actually.
:11:39. > :11:45.The economy will provide the space, or not, to do these things. The
:11:46. > :11:49.Treasury is telling the Chancellor that the slowdown in the economy,
:11:50. > :11:54.not as slow as they thought, but still a slowdown, that, in itself,
:11:55. > :11:58.will widen the deficit. Therefore, he is not going to have a tonne of
:11:59. > :12:02.money to throw around on top of that, which would widen the deficit
:12:03. > :12:07.even further. There is room for manoeuvre which may be quite slight?
:12:08. > :12:12.Not quite true. He has abandoned George Osborne's fiscal targets.
:12:13. > :12:15.Having already taken this into account by what they think is the
:12:16. > :12:19.slowing of the economy. They have been wrong in the past, but that is
:12:20. > :12:23.why they have done that. There is not a turn of money around to spend
:12:24. > :12:28.billions on infrastructure, unless, of course, like Mr Corbyn, you want
:12:29. > :12:33.to borrow it. When you say you are not going to eradicate the deficit
:12:34. > :12:38.by 2020, that is what you mean. If he needs to cushion the Brexit
:12:39. > :12:41.impact, if there is one, I don't think we could pay off the deficit
:12:42. > :12:47.by 2020. Then you'll have all of this money to do what you want with.
:12:48. > :12:51.Final thought? There is also the attitude about business and the
:12:52. > :12:55.attitude to the super rich and well. I think Theresa May will concentrate
:12:56. > :12:58.on that more than David Cameron, alleviating concerns. The Autumn
:12:59. > :13:03.Statement from the Chancellor will be as big as any of the statements
:13:04. > :13:05.we hear this week. I am glad to hear it, it will be coming up live on a
:13:06. > :13:08.Daily Politics special. at the Conservative Party
:13:09. > :13:11.conference here in Birmingham. Fear not, I'll be back tomorrow
:13:12. > :13:14.at 11am for a two-hour special as Chancellor Philip Hammond
:13:15. > :13:20.takes to the stage. We are back on Tuesday and Wednesday
:13:21. > :13:24.bringing Theresa May's speech on Wednesday just before lunch. We will
:13:25. > :13:26.be back next Sunday as well. In the meantime, remember -
:13:27. > :13:29.if it's Sunday, it's Euro 2016,
:13:30. > :14:13.what a time for Welsh football. to develop the next stars of
:14:14. > :14:19.the future? We've definitely got the numbers,
:14:20. > :14:22.our numbers are right up there. But given our Welsh weather,
:14:23. > :14:25.should our grassroots be 3G? If there were better pitches at
:14:26. > :14:27.a younger age, you'd probably get more kids
:14:28. > :14:29.coming through. You're probably looking at
:14:30. > :14:33.about 850K just to put a pitch down.