:00:38. > :00:43.Boris Johnson hosts a summit of allies in London
:00:44. > :00:47.to discuss how to broker a peace settlement in Syria.
:00:48. > :00:50.But as war continues to rage, could "no-bomb zones" -
:00:51. > :00:52.thought to be backed by the Foreign Secretary -
:00:53. > :00:56.protect civilians, and how would they work?
:00:57. > :00:59.We were told by the Remain campaign that a vote to leave the EU would
:01:00. > :01:05.But with the economy growing and employment at record
:01:06. > :01:09.Can Theresa May make a decision on airport expansion
:01:10. > :01:12.without triggering a Conservative cabinet bust-up
:01:13. > :01:23.Later in the programme. as the PM prepares to choose
:01:24. > :01:25.What next for Plaid as Dafydd Elis Thomas leaves the party?
:01:26. > :01:30.And more free childcare is promised in this week's budget,
:01:31. > :01:32.And more free childcare is promised on whether to expand Heathrow, is
:01:33. > :01:37.Brexit causing uncertainty in the aviation sector?
:01:38. > :01:40.All that to come before 12.15 - and the Scottish Secretary, David
:01:41. > :01:43.Mundell, on Nicola Sturgeon's plans for a second referendum
:01:44. > :01:48.And with me throughout - Tom Newtown Dunn,
:01:49. > :01:51.Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.
:01:52. > :01:53.They'll all be tweeting their thoughts and comments
:01:54. > :01:59.So, in just over an hour, the Foreign Secretary,
:02:00. > :02:02.Boris Johnson, will host a meeting of foreign allies in London,
:02:03. > :02:05.including US Secretary of State John Kerry,
:02:06. > :02:08.to discuss military options in Syria.
:02:09. > :02:11.Last week, Mr Johnson said the public mood had changed
:02:12. > :02:14.after relentless bomb attacks on Aleppo
:02:15. > :02:23.and that more "kinetic action" might be possible.
:02:24. > :02:30.Has the public mood changed on Syria? There is a desire to end the
:02:31. > :02:35.horror, but has the public mood really changed? Not really. When
:02:36. > :02:40.asked, the Public say that something must be done and we must stop the
:02:41. > :02:46.slaughter, but when also asked whether to put British troops there,
:02:47. > :02:50.they say, probably not. We have a new Foreign Secretary and British
:02:51. > :02:54.government, and we will have a new White House come January for sure.
:02:55. > :03:00.So there is a feeling that what has gone so far in terms of not
:03:01. > :03:05.intervening, not trying to oppose or block Putin from doing what he wants
:03:06. > :03:10.in Syria has failed, so time to try something else. There was talk of a
:03:11. > :03:17.no-fly zone. There's not so much talk about it now. Now there's
:03:18. > :03:21.suddenly a no-bomb zone. Are we clear what that would be? It is
:03:22. > :03:27.meaningless without a no-fly zone and no one is willing to enforce it.
:03:28. > :03:31.For me, the biggest issue is, what is the point of the United Nations?
:03:32. > :03:36.With Russia vetoing any possible peace plan, we are in a situation
:03:37. > :03:40.where we are basically handing over our moral authority in the world for
:03:41. > :03:45.dealing with humanitarian disasters and war crimes being committed by
:03:46. > :03:50.the side regime and Putin to an organisation which is controlled by
:03:51. > :04:02.Putin effectively because he has a veto on the Security Council. The
:04:03. > :04:05.situation is untenable. We cannot sit and pretend we don't want to be
:04:06. > :04:08.involved in this war. We are already at war, and we will be at war. We
:04:09. > :04:11.need to get to grips with it sooner or later. If we are willing to say
:04:12. > :04:15.that we don't care about Syrian children dying... But we are not
:04:16. > :04:21.willing to say that, so we need to do something about it. We could care
:04:22. > :04:27.deeply but admits there is not something we can do about it.
:04:28. > :04:32.Indeed. When Julia says "Get involved", that does not translate
:04:33. > :04:38.to anything precise or specific. The problem is you go round in circles
:04:39. > :04:43.when it comes to reaction, because when people are then asked what the
:04:44. > :04:49.endgame is - and you do need to have a sense of the end and an aim, and
:04:50. > :04:54.one of the problems with Iraq was that there was not that - you can
:04:55. > :04:59.simply say, something needs to be done and we are involved and there
:05:00. > :05:04.should be military action, but that raises 10,000 other questions which
:05:05. > :05:06.no one is capable of answering. As I understand it, the no-bomb zone
:05:07. > :05:11.would be that we would designate areas where no bombing would be
:05:12. > :05:16.allowed. We wouldn't have planes to stop it happening, but if bombing
:05:17. > :05:21.did happen in those areas, we would use missiles to take out Syrian
:05:22. > :05:27.infrastructure. It seems complicated, and to not take into
:05:28. > :05:29.account what we would do if the Russians put anti-missile batteries
:05:30. > :05:36.around this Syrian infrastructure, as well they might. And you could go
:05:37. > :05:41.one step further. Your understanding is the same as mine. Doing something
:05:42. > :05:48.to prevent drops being -- ones being dropped in that area, but without
:05:49. > :05:55.engaging with Russia. You could fire cruise missiles into a runway, which
:05:56. > :05:59.we were warned could be done, but the problem is, you could have a
:06:00. > :06:05.Russian jet in the middle of that runway, or a bus of school kids. We
:06:06. > :06:10.know that they are capable of doing that. You are looking towards a
:06:11. > :06:13.confrontation with Russia, what ever you do. Boris Johnson would say this
:06:14. > :06:19.is the kind of HARDtalk we need to get the man to listen, because
:06:20. > :06:23.everything else has failed. Mr Kerry being there is significant, but at
:06:24. > :06:34.this stage in the election cycle, it's hard to sue what -- see what Mr
:06:35. > :06:39.Obama would do. We have no idea what to reason may's foreign policy is in
:06:40. > :06:46.terms of intervention. The last thing she would want to do is to get
:06:47. > :06:50.involved in a Middle Eastern war. But we are already involved. And the
:06:51. > :06:56.idea that our entire foreign policy should be based on not having a
:06:57. > :07:00.conflict in the Putin... The West as a whole is not wanting to have a
:07:01. > :07:06.conflict with him, and that is why he is acting how he is.
:07:07. > :07:09.Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has repeated her
:07:10. > :07:12.warning that, if the UK leaves the single market, she will push for
:07:13. > :07:16.Speaking to Andrew Marr earlier this morning, Ms Sturgeon said
:07:17. > :07:18.she would not hesitate to protect Scotland's economic interests.
:07:19. > :07:20.There's a principle here about, you know,
:07:21. > :07:23.Does what we think, and what we say, and how
:07:24. > :07:27.And that's what's going to be put to the test, I think,
:07:28. > :07:30.Theresa May, perfectly legitimately, says she values the UK,
:07:31. > :07:34.In the Independence Referendum, Scotland was told repeatedly
:07:35. > :07:40.My message to the Prime Minister is, it's now time to prove these
:07:41. > :07:42.things, and demonstrate to Scotland that our voice does count
:07:43. > :07:45.within the UK, and our interests can be protected.
:07:46. > :07:47.Because if that's not the case, then I think Scotland
:07:48. > :07:50.would have the right to decide whether it wanted to follow
:07:51. > :07:59.I've been joined by the Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mundell.
:08:00. > :08:07.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. During the Scottish referendum
:08:08. > :08:10.campaign, two years ago, the ETA Together campaign claimed that the
:08:11. > :08:18.only guaranteed way for Scotland to remain in the EU was to stay in the
:08:19. > :08:23.UK. That turned out to be untrue. You owe the people of Scotland an
:08:24. > :08:28.apology. That isn't the full facts. It was made clear during the
:08:29. > :08:34.referendum in Scotland that there could be an EU referendum. Ruth
:08:35. > :08:37.Davidson, on many occasions, made it clear that people in Scotland would
:08:38. > :08:42.have the opportunity to vote on whether or not they remained in the
:08:43. > :08:47.EU. What was clear in that referendum, and you played a
:08:48. > :08:51.significant part in highlighting it, was that those who were advocating a
:08:52. > :08:57.yes vote could not set out a clear route for Scotland to get into the
:08:58. > :09:02.EU as an independent nation. They were told if they stayed in the UK,
:09:03. > :09:08.that was their best route to remaining in Europe. It turned out,
:09:09. > :09:12.it is obvious that that was untrue. It was a route that meant there was
:09:13. > :09:18.going to be an EU referendum. That was made very clear throughout that.
:09:19. > :09:22.People voted in Scotland decisively to remain part of the UK in full
:09:23. > :09:27.knowledge that there would be a referendum on whether the United
:09:28. > :09:31.Kingdom remained in the European Union. That is what the vote on the
:09:32. > :09:36.23rd of June in Scotland was about. It was about the UK remaining in the
:09:37. > :09:39.EU, not Scotland. The people of Scotland were told to vote for the
:09:40. > :09:48.union to be sure of staying in the UK. They also voted 62% to 38% to
:09:49. > :09:53.stay in the EU. Now they are being dragged out against their will.
:09:54. > :09:58.Surely that is grounds for a second Scottish referendum? I don't accept
:09:59. > :10:02.that. I've voted to stay in the EU, but I didn't do so on the basis that
:10:03. > :10:07.if I didn't get my own way that Scotland would be dragged out of the
:10:08. > :10:14.United Kingdom. We have had a once in a generation vote as to whether
:10:15. > :10:18.Scotland remained part of the UK. There was a decisive result in that.
:10:19. > :10:24.On the assumption that we would also remain part of the European Union,
:10:25. > :10:27.so a major change has taken place. I don't accept that analysis. People
:10:28. > :10:32.were told that there would be a vote on whether the UK remained in the
:10:33. > :10:36.EU. The reasons for Scotland remaining in the UK were
:10:37. > :10:41.overwhelmingly economic, and those issues remain today in relation to
:10:42. > :10:43.the UK single market. It is very odd that people who are concerned about
:10:44. > :11:01.the EU single market are quite willing to
:11:02. > :11:03.give up the UK single market, which is four times as valuable to
:11:04. > :11:05.Scotland, and responsible for a million jobs. If the Scottish
:11:06. > :11:07.Government demands another referendum, will the UK Government
:11:08. > :11:11.grant it? The UK Government will have two agreed to a referendum, but
:11:12. > :11:17.we want to argue that there shouldn't be another referendum. It
:11:18. > :11:21.is in Scotland's best interests at the two governments work together
:11:22. > :11:25.with 18 UK approach to get the best possible situation for Scotland...
:11:26. > :11:33.If the Scottish Parliament decides that we do want -- we do not like
:11:34. > :11:37.the terms of Brexit and we want another referendum, would you grant
:11:38. > :11:42.it? There would have to be an agreement between the two
:11:43. > :11:45.governments in the same form as the Edinburgh Agreement. The great shame
:11:46. > :11:50.of the Edinburgh Agreement, which the SNP used to quote repeatedly, is
:11:51. > :11:55.that they have not adhere to it, because a fundamental part of that
:11:56. > :11:59.would be that both sides would respect the result. Viewers will
:12:00. > :12:04.notice that you haven't really answered my question. Could Scotland
:12:05. > :12:08.remain inside the single market in Europe as part of the Brexit
:12:09. > :12:13.process? From the outset, I have said we would listen to any proposal
:12:14. > :12:18.that the Scottish Government brought forward in relation to Scotland's
:12:19. > :12:22.interests. We have had for months and no specific proposals have come
:12:23. > :12:27.forward. Nicola Sturgeon was talking about proposals this morning, but at
:12:28. > :12:34.this moment, I see it impossible that Scotland could remain within
:12:35. > :12:37.the EU whilst the rest of the UK leads. It would be difficult to see
:12:38. > :12:41.how that could be achieved. But we will listen to any proposals the
:12:42. > :12:46.Scottish Government bring forward in relation to achieving the best
:12:47. > :12:50.interests of Scotland. I am convinced that Scotland's best
:12:51. > :12:56.interests are being part of the UK. You praised Scotland's membership of
:12:57. > :13:00.the single market during the referendum. In March of this year
:13:01. > :13:05.you said it secured jobs, was vital to tourism and industry, inbound
:13:06. > :13:10.visitors and the rest of it. So why would you not want to retain it for
:13:11. > :13:15.Scotland? I agree with the benefits Scotland has received from the
:13:16. > :13:20.single market, but we are in a different situation now. The UK is
:13:21. > :13:24.negotiating its exit from the EU. The Prime Minister has said it is
:13:25. > :13:29.not going to be on the basis of existing arrangements, it will be on
:13:30. > :13:34.the basis of a new arrangement, and as part of that, we will want to
:13:35. > :13:40.secure the best arrangement for Scottish businesses. Given the
:13:41. > :13:43.history we have gone through, do you want to guarantee a special post
:13:44. > :13:49.Brexit status for Scotland. We leave the EU, but Scotland will have a
:13:50. > :13:54.distinct status? I'm willing to look at any proposal brought forward that
:13:55. > :13:58.looks at Scotland's interests. We have had no specifics from the
:13:59. > :14:07.Scottish Government. They say now that they have them. It is a bit rum
:14:08. > :14:10.to attack the Scottish Government. The principle is, could Scotland
:14:11. > :14:17.have a special position, and would you help that or not? I am willing
:14:18. > :14:21.to listen to any proposal brought forward. Will fishing and farming go
:14:22. > :14:27.back to Edinburgh? The devolution settlement are going to be a
:14:28. > :14:34.change,... Will they go to Edinburgh or to London? We will have a
:14:35. > :14:40.decision at the end of that process. I want to make sure we have the best
:14:41. > :14:44.arrangement for Scotland. You can't answer the question? We want to
:14:45. > :14:50.listen to what fishermen and farmers say, and the people of Scotland. It
:14:51. > :14:55.will be a package of arrangements, clearly, that need to be taken
:14:56. > :14:59.forward as a result of leaving the EU. One final question. If the
:15:00. > :15:04.Scottish Nationalist MPs vote against grammar schools, which are
:15:05. > :15:06.purely for England, isn't that proof that your English votes for English
:15:07. > :15:16.laws isn't working? It demonstrates all MPs in the
:15:17. > :15:21.Parliament have the opportunity to vote on all issues. You wouldn't
:15:22. > :15:32.mind if they voted to stop Grammar schools? Of course I wouldn't --
:15:33. > :15:40.would mind... I think we have got the balance right in that
:15:41. > :15:43.legislation. It is meaningless if they can vote to stop grammar
:15:44. > :15:49.schools when it doesn't affect Scotland. They have to answer for
:15:50. > :15:53.that, based on an opportunistic approach and cause resentment in
:15:54. > :15:54.England. Thank you for being with us.
:15:55. > :15:56.During the EU Referendum campaign, leading Remain supporters repeatedly
:15:57. > :15:59.warned that a vote to leave the European Union would cause
:16:00. > :16:03.Three months on, were their forecasts accurate?
:16:04. > :16:08.Since the vote on June 23rd, the economic news
:16:09. > :16:11.The value of the pound has been in pretty steady depreciation
:16:12. > :16:13.since referendum day, falling to a 31-year
:16:14. > :16:22.It was as low as $1.18 but has still rebounded a bit.
:16:23. > :16:25.The weak pound left Tesco in a situation.
:16:26. > :16:28.They stopped selling Marmite and other products for a day online
:16:29. > :16:32.And a leaked Treasury report said that Government tax revenues
:16:33. > :16:35.could be down by 66 billion a year in a post-Brexit economy.
:16:36. > :16:43.Though the report emanated from Project Fear days.
:16:44. > :16:44.However, many of the short-term economic fundamentals
:16:45. > :16:52.The dominant service sector grew a healthy 0.4% in July.
:16:53. > :16:55.In the same month, the unemployment rate dipped to under 5%,
:16:56. > :17:01.House-buying has also been rising since the referendum,
:17:02. > :17:04.nearly 110,000 properties were purchased in August.
:17:05. > :17:11.Is the economy already suffering from the Brexit blues or not?
:17:12. > :17:14.Joining me now is the former shadow Europe Minister,
:17:15. > :17:16.the Labour MP Pat McFadden, who was a Business Minister
:17:17. > :17:30.Do you know concede that nearly all the short-term economic forecasts
:17:31. > :17:35.made by the Remain campaign have turned out to be untrue at best,
:17:36. > :17:40.scaremongering at worst? No, I think this week was the week that the
:17:41. > :17:45.beginnings of the economic effects of Brexit began to take hold, most
:17:46. > :17:49.obviously on the currency fall. You talk about short-term, this began on
:17:50. > :17:54.the night of the referendum itself and was given booster rockets by the
:17:55. > :17:59.signals sent out by the Conservative Party conference. In terms of the
:18:00. > :18:03.warnings next to reality, the warnings about the fall of the
:18:04. > :18:09.currency speculated that it might fall in value by about 12%, the
:18:10. > :18:18.reality is closer to 20%. Let's look at some of the warnings. We will
:18:19. > :18:20.come back to the currency, but let's look at this. The Treasury report on
:18:21. > :18:34.maybe 23rd said the following: That turned out to be untrue, didn't
:18:35. > :18:39.it? What has happened here, which isn't in line with those warnings,
:18:40. > :18:42.is consumer confidence has remained high. The actions of the Bank of
:18:43. > :18:46.England in cutting interest have been important, so the short-term
:18:47. > :18:55.effect in terms of consumer confidence... So it is wrong? Hasn't
:18:56. > :18:58.turned out in line with that, but it would be complacent in the extreme
:18:59. > :19:02.to conclude that with the effects of the currency which we know also from
:19:03. > :19:08.the Bank of England's comments the other dates will feed into higher
:19:09. > :19:16.prices, which will hit lower income consumers hardest. But we don't know
:19:17. > :19:20.yet, I will come onto that but in the short term, I will show you
:19:21. > :19:22.another one. A month before the referendum, the Chancellor George
:19:23. > :19:35.Osborne said this: That turned out to be wronged too,
:19:36. > :19:39.didn't it? We are not in recession but if you look at the forecasts of
:19:40. > :19:44.growth over the next few years, the Bank of England have forecast growth
:19:45. > :19:53.next year to not be the 2.3% it thought before the referendum but to
:19:54. > :19:58.be 0.8%. Is it forecasting a recession? No, but it is forecasting
:19:59. > :20:03.a slowdown which would mean GDP after two years would be for the ?5
:20:04. > :20:07.billion less than the estimates before the referendum took place.
:20:08. > :20:14.And it might be wrong, because look, it was wrong about the recession. Is
:20:15. > :20:19.anybody now forecasting a recession? I don't know if anybody is
:20:20. > :20:22.forecasting a recession. The IMF are certainly forecasting a slowdown in
:20:23. > :20:29.a similar way to the Bank of England. George Osborne also said
:20:30. > :20:37.house prices will plummet by 18%. Any sign of that? House prices are
:20:38. > :20:41.not plummeting by 18%. Your side that you represent made much of the
:20:42. > :20:46.IMF's claim that provoked Leave would mean an immediate slide into
:20:47. > :20:53.recession, a collapse in house prices, and a crash in stock markets
:20:54. > :21:01.which of course are currently at record levels. Even the IMF admits
:21:02. > :21:06.there is none of that. There maybe longer term dangers but in the
:21:07. > :21:10.short-term it happen. In the short-term it didn't happen. In the
:21:11. > :21:15.short term what has happened here, as I said a moment ago, is consumer
:21:16. > :21:19.confidence has remained high, the Bank of England cut interest rates
:21:20. > :21:24.which put more money into people's pockets and I think the action they
:21:25. > :21:28.took was important, but I think it would be wrong to say imply that
:21:29. > :21:33.because these things haven't happened in the first few months
:21:34. > :21:37.that we are somehow out of the woods on the economy. I understand that,
:21:38. > :21:41.that's the last thing I would say, but here's the question - most of
:21:42. > :21:45.these forecasters are still pretty gloomy about the long-term but if
:21:46. > :21:51.they couldn't get the last few months right, why would you trust
:21:52. > :21:57.them for 2025 when they couldn't say what will happen in September? Why
:21:58. > :22:03.would you trust them to say what happens five years from now? People
:22:04. > :22:09.will ask the question but the big tangible we have is in the decline
:22:10. > :22:14.of the currency and that is a real and now effect. We can talk about
:22:15. > :22:18.whether it is lost or minus, but the Government said the other day this
:22:19. > :22:22.would bring inflation back, to use his words it is going to get
:22:23. > :22:27.difficult, particularly for people on lower incomes and that will feed
:22:28. > :22:31.into people's purchasing power. The international markets partaking of
:22:32. > :22:37.you have our future prospects and at the moment it is not a vote of
:22:38. > :22:41.confidence. Do you agree with the latest Remain mantra that people
:22:42. > :22:47.might have voted to leave the EU but didn't necessarily vote to leave the
:22:48. > :22:51.single market? I do agree with that. A lot of people have said people who
:22:52. > :22:55.voted to leave didn't know that's what they were voting for, so let me
:22:56. > :23:00.show you a clip of David Cameron at the height of the referendum
:23:01. > :23:05.campaign. The British public would be voting if we leave to leave the
:23:06. > :23:10.EU and the single market, we then have to negotiate a trade deal from
:23:11. > :23:15.outside with the European Union. There you have it loud and clear on
:23:16. > :23:20.BBC television, voting Leave means leaving the single market, not
:23:21. > :23:24.losing access to it but leaving the membership of it. We have George
:23:25. > :23:29.Osborne on tape saying the same thing, so why do you make out Leave
:23:30. > :23:34.voters didn't know what they were voting for? I think people voted
:23:35. > :23:38.Leave for a number of different reasons. For some it might have been
:23:39. > :23:43.immigration, for some it might have been the promise of more money for
:23:44. > :23:47.the NHS, but there are number of countries outside the EU which can
:23:48. > :23:52.have full access to the single market, we know about Norway and on.
:23:53. > :23:58.But they all have to pay in and have free movement. We can come onto that
:23:59. > :24:02.but what I'm saying is it's not the case that when you are outside the
:24:03. > :24:06.EU you necessarily have to be outside the single market and the
:24:07. > :24:10.reason this is important is because this has been a cornerstone of
:24:11. > :24:17.British economic policy for many years, particularly in terms of our
:24:18. > :24:20.inward investment, and the reasons why both manufacturing industry and
:24:21. > :24:26.financial services has invested and created employment in the UK, and I
:24:27. > :24:31.think it would be cavalier to begin this negotiation by closing the door
:24:32. > :24:35.on that. Is it Labour's policy, I know you don't speak for Labour
:24:36. > :24:40.leadership, but is it their policy to remain in the single market? You
:24:41. > :24:45.are right, I'm a backbencher, but it is the policy to have as full access
:24:46. > :24:52.as possible to the single market. At least what we have now in terms of
:24:53. > :24:55.goods and services. You can call it membership or not but that is what
:24:56. > :25:03.Keir Starmer and the Labour Party wants. The old party home affairs
:25:04. > :25:06.select committee is blaming Jeremy Corbyn's lack of leadership for
:25:07. > :25:13.creating a safe space for what they call vile anti-Semitism. Do you
:25:14. > :25:17.agree with that? I think this report should be taken seriously. The
:25:18. > :25:22.atmosphere in the Labour Party, there has been a lot of nasty things
:25:23. > :25:27.said on social media over the past year in particular. I hope we don't
:25:28. > :25:31.make the mistake of shooting the messenger, I hope we take the report
:25:32. > :25:35.seriously and I hope we don't fall into the trap that sometimes I see
:25:36. > :25:41.when these accusations are wielded, that we point to antiracism records
:25:42. > :25:46.and say look at our virtue in our record here, that must mean we
:25:47. > :25:50.cannot be anti-Semitic. Let me be clear about this, pointing to your
:25:51. > :25:53.own sense of righteousness is no excuse for nastiness or cruelty to
:25:54. > :25:59.someone else so we should take this very seriously indeed. Pat McFadden,
:26:00. > :26:05.thank you for being with us this morning.
:26:06. > :26:07.A third runway at Heathrow was first given the green
:26:08. > :26:09.light by Gordon Brown's government in 2009.
:26:10. > :26:11.Almost eight years on, could Theresa May be about finally
:26:12. > :26:13.to allow Heathrow expansion to go ahead?
:26:14. > :26:17.Or could she surprise everyone and back Gatwick instead?
:26:18. > :26:20.Maybe she will come out in favour of both of them!
:26:21. > :26:22.A decision is expected imminently, but it's not straightforward
:26:23. > :26:26.Several members of her cabinet are opposed to any plan to expand
:26:27. > :26:28.Heathrow, and reports suggest as many as 60 of her backbenchers
:26:29. > :26:32.Our reporter, Mark Lobel, has been looking at
:26:33. > :26:41.A growing number of people want to take more flights and some
:26:42. > :26:43.accuse the Government of dragging their feet over
:26:44. > :26:54.All the while, our airports are operating flat-out.
:26:55. > :27:00.So this is fully autonomous, you just have to press the start
:27:01. > :27:06.Matthew Hill is from a business-backed group campaigning
:27:07. > :27:10.We haven't had a full-length runway in London and the south-east
:27:11. > :27:15.Gatwick was built in the 1930s, Heathrow in the 1940s,
:27:16. > :27:21.Heathrow is full, Gatwick will be full in the next few years.
:27:22. > :27:24.Matthew's group claims the lack of a new runway is costing us
:27:25. > :27:31.I think there are huge economic benefits from the construction
:27:32. > :27:35.At the moment, because we don't have that new runway, we don't
:27:36. > :27:37.have that new capacity, the new flights to new markets,
:27:38. > :27:41.we are missing out on ?9.5 billion a year in lost trade.
:27:42. > :27:43.Until we get that decision and we get that runway
:27:44. > :27:47.built, we will continue to lose out on that trade.
:27:48. > :27:50.One airport that's eager to expand is Heathrow,
:27:51. > :27:53.either by expanding this northern runway, the one closest to us here,
:27:54. > :27:56.or, the Airports Commission's favourite proposal, building
:27:57. > :28:00.a new runway parallel to here, about a kilometre that way in place
:28:01. > :28:08.It's said that would offer 40 new destinations from the airport,
:28:09. > :28:10.carry lots more air freight, provide 70,000 new jobs
:28:11. > :28:15.and an overall boost to economic activity in the country,
:28:16. > :28:18.with a promise of no night flights, new environmental and community
:28:19. > :28:28.Heathrow's hub status also services many of the UK's other airports,
:28:29. > :28:34.On average, every year a quarter of a million passengers travel
:28:35. > :28:36.to and from this key exporting region via Heathrow,
:28:37. > :28:42.While we've been very strong supporters of a third runway
:28:43. > :28:44.at Heathrow, we think it's in the best interests
:28:45. > :28:46.of the north-east, we also think it's in the best
:28:47. > :28:56.Our services connect to many, many destinations across the world,
:28:57. > :29:03.and allow businesses to trade right the way across the globe.
:29:04. > :29:09.Gatwick Airport also wants to expand with another runway here.
:29:10. > :29:12.By doubling Gatwick's capacity, the plan would create 22,000
:29:13. > :29:15.new jobs, a vastly expanded short-haul network, and more
:29:16. > :29:21.I think the expansion of Gatwick will bring firstly
:29:22. > :29:24.the certainty of delivery, we can have spades in the ground
:29:25. > :29:30.in this Parliament and we can be operational in the next,
:29:31. > :29:32.so that's within ten years we can have a new runway,
:29:33. > :29:35.and Gatwick can provide the increased capacity at a price
:29:36. > :29:43.Now, before anyone gets carried away, there are of course some
:29:44. > :29:49.people who would far prefer no extra planes in the sky.
:29:50. > :29:51.We already fly more than everybody else,
:29:52. > :29:53.most of these are leisure flights, well who's taking
:29:54. > :29:59.Actually 70% of all of our flights are taken by 15% of the population.
:30:00. > :30:03.It's a wealthy frequent-flying elite.
:30:04. > :30:09.But with approval of a third runway looking likely,
:30:10. > :30:18.could more protests be on the horizon?
:30:19. > :30:21.I can tell you now, they are dusting off the handcuffs, you know,
:30:22. > :30:24.And you have to remember, Heathrow, if they choose to expand
:30:25. > :30:26.Heathrow, you are talking about hundreds of homes
:30:27. > :30:29.being bulldozed, whole communities being eradicated, wiped off the map.
:30:30. > :30:32.Over the last few years, since the last big protest around
:30:33. > :30:34.Heathrow, the relationship between local people around
:30:35. > :30:37.the airport and grass roots climate change activists
:30:38. > :30:42.Those guys are going to get together and just cause merry hell for people
:30:43. > :30:51.The Prime Minister, Theresa May, who once called for a better not
:30:52. > :30:54.bigger Heathrow whilst in opposition, will chair a select
:30:55. > :30:57.group of colleagues expected to decide imminently
:30:58. > :31:00.on whether to build a new runway and where.
:31:01. > :31:03.It will then take months for a national policy statement
:31:04. > :31:08.outlining the new works to get drawn up before MPs get to vote on it,
:31:09. > :31:12.leaving plenty of time for any further opposition to airport
:31:13. > :31:20.I've been joined by two Conservative MPs.
:31:21. > :31:22.Adam Afriyie is opposed to Heathrow expansion,
:31:23. > :31:43.Adam, the independent Daviess report into runway expansion said the case
:31:44. > :31:49.for Heathrow was clear and unanimous in the Commission. 180,000 more
:31:50. > :31:54.jobs, more than ?200 billion in economic benefits. So why are you
:31:55. > :31:58.putting the interests of your constituency before the national
:31:59. > :32:00.interest? I will fight tooth and nail for the interests of my
:32:01. > :32:04.constituents, but the wonderful thing about the binary choice
:32:05. > :32:09.between Heathrow and Gatwick is that it is not in the regional or
:32:10. > :32:17.consumers' interests to expand Heathrow. The Daviess report has
:32:18. > :32:23.already been largely undermined. There are 17 reasons why it doesn't
:32:24. > :32:30.work and is wrong. Number one, they said Gatwick would not have 42
:32:31. > :32:34.million passengers until 2024. This year, they already have 42 million
:32:35. > :32:39.passengers. Gatwick have increased their destinations to 20 now, which
:32:40. > :32:44.they didn't expect either. The Davies review was good in its day,
:32:45. > :32:51.but is it had a limited remit. They were talking about Heathrow as a
:32:52. > :32:56.hub, but the airline industry has changed. We have to pay to this for
:32:57. > :33:05.more than 15 years. The government White Paper in 2003 suggested we
:33:06. > :33:10.should expand Heathrow. ?20 million and 12 years later, the Davis Report
:33:11. > :33:14.came to the same conclusion. We are never going to get any form of
:33:15. > :33:19.progress on this is competing MPs are allowed to frustrate the
:33:20. > :33:24.process. You could have had about three people who are Gatwick MPs
:33:25. > :33:30.arguing very passionately against Adam's desire to expand Gatwick. The
:33:31. > :33:35.point is, we are in a paralysis. We are having a theological debate that
:33:36. > :33:41.will last decades, and Heathrow is... Why Heathrow? Why not expand
:33:42. > :33:45.Gatwick and increase the capacity of our regional airports? I thought the
:33:46. > :33:49.government's strategy was to rebalance the economy in favour of
:33:50. > :33:54.the North and the Midlands. If you listen to northern MPs, or people
:33:55. > :34:00.representing Northern or Scottish interests, they all say they want to
:34:01. > :34:04.increase Heathrow. The SNP said last week they wanted Heathrow to be
:34:05. > :34:08.expanded. If you want to help the economy is in those areas, listen to
:34:09. > :34:16.what they are saying. They are saying expand Heathrow. 32 regional
:34:17. > :34:20.airports support the expansion of Heathrow to maintain its position as
:34:21. > :34:25.one of the global hubs. Even the Scottish Government agrees with
:34:26. > :34:31.expanding Heathrow. They all say, we want to be a serious player in
:34:32. > :34:34.aviation. We need a global hub, and that is Heathrow. The interesting
:34:35. > :34:39.thing is that there is no argument that Heathrow is the UK hub, and no
:34:40. > :34:44.one is trying to get rid of that. But if you are adding a single new
:34:45. > :35:00.runway, is it better to add it at Heathrow or Gatwick, and for me it
:35:01. > :35:03.is overwhelmingly clear. Heathrow is the most expensive airport in the
:35:04. > :35:06.world. If you add another runway at taxpayer expense, you make it even
:35:07. > :35:08.more expensive. So flight prices go up. Whether or not Heathrow could
:35:09. > :35:12.ever be delivered is another question. My own Borough Council as
:35:13. > :35:18.part of the legal action... So even if the decision is made, we may not
:35:19. > :35:25.see the capacity. At Gatwick is dirt cheap. It can be delivered within
:35:26. > :35:29.ten years. But it is not a global hub airport. But the hub that we
:35:30. > :35:35.have at Heathrow is perfectly adequate for the next ten or 15
:35:36. > :35:42.years. It is running at 99% capacity. Every airline, the new
:35:43. > :35:46.planes being ordered... The airline have decided that the hub capacity
:35:47. > :35:54.is sufficient and they are moving to a different model. Let me ask you
:35:55. > :36:00.this. We haven't built a major new runway in London and the south-east
:36:01. > :36:07.for 60 years. Since 1946, so 70 years. Why not expand Heathrow and
:36:08. > :36:11.Gatwick? Personally, I would do both. If we are serious about having
:36:12. > :36:17.international trade and Golding links to the outside world,
:36:18. > :36:22.especially after Brexit, we have to get serious about aviation and
:36:23. > :36:25.accept that we need more capacity. I think it's scandalous we haven't
:36:26. > :36:29.managed to expand capacity for 70 years, when we think of the economic
:36:30. > :36:34.growth that has happened in that time. If we want to build a
:36:35. > :36:38.prosperous economy, it seems bizarre we are reluctant to increase
:36:39. > :36:43.aviation. Whatever the decision, do you think there will be a free vote
:36:44. > :36:56.on this? I think this is one area where I think the government does
:36:57. > :36:58.need to take a lead, and I hope they will make a rational choice for
:36:59. > :37:04.Gatwick. If the government comes out for Heathrow, will you defy the
:37:05. > :37:10.whips? Yes. I will always vote for Heathrow, because it doesn't make
:37:11. > :37:15.economic sense. If MPs are happy at the prospect of Heathrow... Does the
:37:16. > :37:20.figure strike a chord with you? I would hope there would be more, but
:37:21. > :37:24.it depends on the political position of Labour and the SNP. I hope that
:37:25. > :37:30.the government decides inclusively... Ad is doing what he
:37:31. > :37:35.feels is the best for his constituents. I think 60 is way off
:37:36. > :37:43.the mark. I don't know what journalists suggested 60 Tory MPs.
:37:44. > :37:46.My sense is that it is probably about 20 hard-core people in the
:37:47. > :37:54.House of Commons. I think it will be a free vote. If it is 20 hard-core,
:37:55. > :37:58.you will need Labour to get it through? Labour MPs were very keen
:37:59. > :38:05.on supporting Heathrow, in my experience. It may be delayed again,
:38:06. > :38:08.of course. After 70 years, what's another week here or there!
:38:09. > :38:21.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:22. > :38:26.He's served Plaid Cymru in Westminster and Cardiff Bay
:38:27. > :38:29.for more than 40 years, even serving as leader but now
:38:30. > :38:31.Dafydd Elis Thomas says it's all over.
:38:32. > :38:34.He left the party on Friday night, sparking public words of sorrow
:38:35. > :38:36.and some anger from colleagues, but no doubt rancour
:38:37. > :38:42.Lord Elis Thomas joins us live in a moment, but his former
:38:43. > :38:47.colleague Rhun ap Iorwerth was keen to play down his decision.
:38:48. > :38:52.I think the wider implications for Plaid Cymru are very limited.
:38:53. > :38:54.I think what we had here was a very well-publicised and,
:38:55. > :38:57.let's be honest, fairly long drawn-out falling out
:38:58. > :39:01.between Dafydd Elis Thomas and Plaid Cymru.
:39:02. > :39:04.It's regretful to see a relationship of this sort, that lasted
:39:05. > :39:06.four or five decades, coming to an end in this way.
:39:07. > :39:09.This is a specific matter, relating to a specific Assembly member.
:39:10. > :39:12.Plaid Cymru's work of being an effective and efficient
:39:13. > :39:14.opposition, working constructively with government where
:39:15. > :39:30.And the now Independent AM for Dwyfor Meironnydd,
:39:31. > :39:35.Lord Elis Thomas, joins me from Bangor.
:39:36. > :39:48.Good morning. Thanks for joining me. Good morning. How does that sound,
:39:49. > :39:54.the independent AM? I quite like it. I didn't expect it to come to this,
:39:55. > :39:57.obviously especially after the period before the last election
:39:58. > :40:02.after the national executive of the party, held the local party to have
:40:03. > :40:09.a rerun selection conference to see if I was fit to be a candidate. I
:40:10. > :40:14.won the substantial vote there. But the programme we stood on was very
:40:15. > :40:21.much a programme for Gwyneth, for auroral Wales and the agricultural
:40:22. > :40:27.industry. Can I clear a few things up. You are saying this morning you
:40:28. > :40:33.made this decision, you started thinking about this before the
:40:34. > :40:39.election. Then we heard it said you had given assurances to your party
:40:40. > :40:43.you would be loyal to the party. Did you give those pursuer and since
:40:44. > :40:48.before the election, that you would be loyal to Plaid Cymru? I don't
:40:49. > :40:54.know where this is coming from. It is a report he has had from the
:40:55. > :41:00.meeting of executives. That is not true. There was no loyalty test. I
:41:01. > :41:04.was given a gagging order at that meeting, I was to check with the
:41:05. > :41:07.chair of the constituency party before making any controversial
:41:08. > :41:15.statement. I don't know what a controversial statement is! I manage
:41:16. > :41:23.to stick with that up to the election. But after that I hoped it
:41:24. > :41:30.would be a change of heart, the result that 47% of the vote would
:41:31. > :41:36.have been accepted by the party and they would have had a constructive
:41:37. > :41:41.part to play. You said you ran a local campaign, but those promises
:41:42. > :41:45.were printed on papers paid for by Plaid Cymru, the volunteers working
:41:46. > :41:49.for you were supporting Plaid Cymru. You said there is no constitutional
:41:50. > :41:54.case for you to trigger a by-election, and I'm sure you are
:41:55. > :41:58.right on that. But is there a moral case now that having relied so
:41:59. > :42:09.heavily on the Plaid Cymru machine, you should offer that vote to the
:42:10. > :42:15.local people? Here, we pay our way. I support my councillor colleagues
:42:16. > :42:22.where I live. But it is not true that Plaid Cymru here, when I was a
:42:23. > :42:27.candidate and a member of the assembly, was not subsidised by
:42:28. > :42:31.Plaid Cymru, essentially. To the country. Looking at your decision
:42:32. > :42:38.and why you have decided to walk away from Plaid Cymru, you said they
:42:39. > :42:41.are too keen to be an opposition party, not giving enough consensus
:42:42. > :42:44.and support to the Welsh government. Isn't that a two-way process? The
:42:45. > :42:48.Labour Party, the Welsh government are clear they don't want any more
:42:49. > :42:54.support than they have had from Plaid Cymru. Surely it is the job of
:42:55. > :42:59.an opposition to test and challenge the government? It is a very naive
:43:00. > :43:03.view of politics. I worked hard the devolution because I wanted politics
:43:04. > :43:09.in Wales to be different, I wanted it to be creative and do things
:43:10. > :43:15.together. It did happen in the early period and in the formal coalition.
:43:16. > :43:18.As soon as we have the vote about are should ship with the European
:43:19. > :43:21.Union, the key thing that should have happened, the parties that
:43:22. > :43:27.supported devolution should have understood the serious danger to the
:43:28. > :43:33.Constitution and Wales, the power for auroral issues, which are with
:43:34. > :43:38.the European Union, be brought back home, but brought back home to
:43:39. > :43:42.Westminster. But Plaid Cymru can still be united on those issues
:43:43. > :43:47.about keeping those powers devolved to the assembly. But it does mean
:43:48. > :43:51.rolling over to the Welsh government and the Labour Party. They can still
:43:52. > :43:56.have their own separate voice and agenda? It is not about rolling
:43:57. > :44:03.over, it is about building a strong government in Wales. I was proud to
:44:04. > :44:07.hear end Kenny when he was looking to negotiate with independent
:44:08. > :44:12.colleagues and as well with the two big parties in Ireland, every member
:44:13. > :44:15.had the responsibility to ensure a stable government for Ireland. When
:44:16. > :44:19.I was Presiding Officer, I was always on the lookout to try to
:44:20. > :44:25.ensure the government of Wales and the Constitution of Wales was always
:44:26. > :44:30.developing. The bill we have before us in Westminster is drawing power
:44:31. > :44:36.is back. These are the real dangers and that is why I want to see all
:44:37. > :44:38.strong supporters of devolution working together in the National
:44:39. > :44:43.Assembly. What happens next, if you were offered, would you accept a
:44:44. > :44:53.seat in Carwyn Jones's cabinet? It is not on offer. If it was? It
:44:54. > :44:58.wouldn't be, there is no prospect of a reshuffle the government and I
:44:59. > :45:02.wouldn't expect that. I am stating I want to be able to serve my
:45:03. > :45:04.constituency and serve the interests of Wales, especially the
:45:05. > :45:09.constitutional status and power is... Sorry to interrupt, but do you
:45:10. > :45:15.carry out that role best as an independent or in the Cabinet? Carry
:45:16. > :45:18.out the role of representing my constituents as an independent AM.
:45:19. > :45:24.The question of membership of the Welsh government does not arise. Try
:45:25. > :45:31.and nailed this down, you are saying it is not on offer, it hasn't
:45:32. > :45:37.arisen, but where it to arise, would it be yes or no from you? I don't
:45:38. > :45:40.think it is an appropriate hypothetical question at this stage.
:45:41. > :45:47.I have served Wales in any capacity I have been offered. That is not the
:45:48. > :45:54.issue. What you are trying to say is to prop up those people in my party
:45:55. > :45:58.that I am doing this for my own personal ambition. Of course I am
:45:59. > :46:01.ambitious, everybody in politics is ambitious and I ambitious for the
:46:02. > :46:08.people of Wales. I don't apologise for that. It has been suggested the
:46:09. > :46:15.door might be open to rejoin the party at some point. But is your
:46:16. > :46:21.membership as an elected AM of the party now gone? I will never say yes
:46:22. > :46:32.or no, but they should have looked after me when I was there.
:46:33. > :46:37.This is a pretty spectacular political divorce and we don't see
:46:38. > :46:44.many splits like this in Potter ticks. It is someone who has such
:46:45. > :46:49.experience in Plaid Cymru, many people think he embodies Plaid
:46:50. > :46:55.Cymru, Dafydd Elis Thoms and he is leaving the party. The difficulty he
:46:56. > :47:00.has got this has been pointed out by Plaid Cymru, the proximity to which
:47:01. > :47:03.this has happened to the assembly election. There will be arguments
:47:04. > :47:11.about what was said and what wasn't said, expressions of loyalty and the
:47:12. > :47:19.like. But if you stand for a party in elections and matter of months
:47:20. > :47:24.ago, you would expect a degree of loyalty there. Clearly, he feels
:47:25. > :47:28.this abrasive, robust approach in a position Plaid are taking tomorrow
:47:29. > :47:33.towards Labour, is not for him. But what would you expect under those
:47:34. > :47:37.circumstances? In his own mind, he believes the voters voted for him as
:47:38. > :47:44.a pseudo- independent already and that is how he is justifying the
:47:45. > :47:50.cause and his rejection of the cause for a by-election to be held there.
:47:51. > :47:53.There is an interesting story, about inside Plaid Cymru, there is a
:47:54. > :47:59.fascinating numbers game in the assembly. 60 assembly members now,
:48:00. > :48:03.if they can rely on the support of Dafydd Elis Thoms, than Labour,
:48:04. > :48:09.presumably has 31. They have 20 9am is with Kirsty Williams on board,
:48:10. > :48:17.maybe Dafydd Elis Thoms, it gives them the majority they have been
:48:18. > :48:24.looking for. He is not biting, it is terms of whether he would take the
:48:25. > :48:28.offer in the future? Labour have introduced a liberal Democrat into
:48:29. > :48:33.the government. It might be difficult to bring a Plaid Cymru
:48:34. > :48:38.member in in the future. We have a series of committees that Labour are
:48:39. > :48:42.involved with with Plaid Cymru at the moment, although it is not a
:48:43. > :48:48.formal coalition. The real test is when we get the budget. I thought it
:48:49. > :48:51.would be inevitable, however the working relationship between Labour
:48:52. > :48:56.and Plaid pans out, for Plaid and the Tories to put the squeeze on
:48:57. > :49:00.labour, when you have a floating, independent Abba, a potential get
:49:01. > :49:06.out of jail card for Labour in Dafydd Elis Thoms. In a way, that is
:49:07. > :49:14.the wider significance of the decision we have seen. Carwyn Jones
:49:15. > :49:19.said he wants to reach out, is he tempted to save two Plaid Cymru, I
:49:20. > :49:25.have got the numbers, forget the deal? The entire tone since the
:49:26. > :49:29.assembly campaign has become celerity. One of the questions at
:49:30. > :49:35.the assembly is, what a relationship with Plaid will be. In response,
:49:36. > :49:39.Plaid have been very robust. He now has potential options, it be
:49:40. > :49:41.fascinating to see how he plays it in the months ahead. Thank you for
:49:42. > :49:44.in. This week is budget week
:49:45. > :49:47.in Cardiff Bay, when we find out how the Welsh Government
:49:48. > :49:48.shares out it's, just shy And we expect one of the big-ticket
:49:49. > :49:53.items will be childcare. Labour has promised working parents
:49:54. > :49:56.30 hours free childcare a week But the author of the report
:49:57. > :50:00.which led to that policy, says it could cost more than twice
:50:01. > :50:03.as much as estimated. In a moment, we'll be getting
:50:04. > :50:06.the former First Minister's take on all this and other budget
:50:07. > :50:08.shenanigans, but first this It's breakfast time
:50:09. > :50:12.at Little Inspirations nursery in Llantrisant in Rhondda,
:50:13. > :50:16.Cynon, Taff. This kind of service can be
:50:17. > :50:19.of significant cost to parents. But the Welsh government is planning
:50:20. > :50:26.to give a helping hand. Under its plan, parents working 16
:50:27. > :50:30.hours or more a week, would be entitled to 30 hours free
:50:31. > :50:38.child week for three would be entitled to 30 hours free
:50:39. > :50:41.child care a week for three and four-year-olds and it would be
:50:42. > :50:44.available 48 weeks of the year. That's 20 hours more per week
:50:45. > :50:46.than currently on offer. Me and my partner both want to work,
:50:47. > :50:51.we both do work, but the cost, you've got to weigh up
:50:52. > :50:53.things, haven't you? You've got to be in good jobs to be
:50:54. > :50:56.able to afford basic childcare. It's crazy in our house
:50:57. > :50:59.at the moment because we just work I basically work to pay
:51:00. > :51:04.to keep my little boy in nursery, but if I obviously had free
:51:05. > :51:07.childcare, I would work a lot more. The cost of childcare is just
:51:08. > :51:09.so hard at the moment, I'm having to just work to pay
:51:10. > :51:14.for the childcare costs. The government has already said
:51:15. > :51:18.new commitments have to be funded by taking chunks out
:51:19. > :51:21.of budgets elsewhere. During the assembly election
:51:22. > :51:27.campaign, Labour estimated it would be an extra
:51:28. > :51:30.?84 million a year. Last year, a report for the Welsh
:51:31. > :51:33.government analysed this policy It said a cost of ?84 million a year
:51:34. > :51:39.would be based on 87% of parents currently working, taking up
:51:40. > :51:43.the offer and the childcare costing But the author of that report has
:51:44. > :51:52.now told Sunday Politics Wales that the actual cost could end
:51:53. > :51:54.up being much higher, especially if the policy
:51:55. > :51:58.achieves its aim, of getting In estimating the cost of this
:51:59. > :52:06.policy, there are several parameters that feed into that estimate,
:52:07. > :52:08.all of which have large degrees First of all, we do need to know
:52:09. > :52:15.the hourly cost of delivery, which can vary enormously
:52:16. > :52:17.across regions and different We also need to know most
:52:18. > :52:21.importantly, how parents In particular whether they will
:52:22. > :52:24.change their work behaviour in response to the policy,
:52:25. > :52:27.which is hard to estimate. Gillian Paull's initial report
:52:28. > :52:30.concluded the report wouldn't do much to get parents into work,
:52:31. > :52:33.but the government insists it removes a major barrier
:52:34. > :52:36.to employment. If the government is right,
:52:37. > :52:42.Gillian says the upper cost limit of the policy could be
:52:43. > :52:45.as high as ?200 million. The availability of places
:52:46. > :52:50.could also become a problem. If for example, we look
:52:51. > :52:53.at the number of child childcare places relative to the population,
:52:54. > :52:55.in Wales it's about 30 childcare It is about 40 in England and it's
:52:56. > :53:00.nearly 50 in Scotland. We are starting from a very low base
:53:01. > :53:03.of childcare provision, so one of the big problems we have
:53:04. > :53:08.in delivering this extra childcare is, there isn't very much childcare
:53:09. > :53:11.to offer in the first place. The Welsh government acknowledges
:53:12. > :53:13.there are issues with capacity and says it's working
:53:14. > :53:15.with the sector. It's also undertaking
:53:16. > :53:21.complex modelling of costs. The Welsh government's announcement
:53:22. > :53:25.last week it plans to end its anti-poverty programme
:53:26. > :53:27.Communities First could ultimately So where else will it need
:53:28. > :53:32.to look to find money They'll have to look to other
:53:33. > :53:38.budgets, health, education, environmental protection,
:53:39. > :53:40.to see where they can make cuts The last five years have undoubtedly
:53:41. > :53:45.been tough for the Welsh government's budget,
:53:46. > :53:48.they've come under sustained pressure because of
:53:49. > :53:51.reductions at Westminster. So there's not much fat
:53:52. > :53:54.left to trim. So the choices Welsh Labour
:53:55. > :53:58.ministers will have to make The government will need to start
:53:59. > :54:07.finding money for this policy The full cost will kick
:54:08. > :54:10.in further down the line. It could become a tricky balancing
:54:11. > :54:13.act. The former First Minister Rhodri
:54:14. > :54:17.Morgan has vast experience of dealing with these matters
:54:18. > :54:29.and joins me now. Good morning. We have asked you to
:54:30. > :54:35.come in to discuss the budget and what the deal should be. But Dafydd
:54:36. > :54:41.Elis Thoms's defection and decision to stand as an independent changes a
:54:42. > :54:45.lot of this discussion around the budget? One-vote makes an enormous
:54:46. > :54:52.difference in the mathematics of the assembly because Labour has 30 and
:54:53. > :54:55.what you have got now is with Dafydd Elis Thomas not crossing the floor,
:54:56. > :55:01.but leaving the Plaid Cymru group, means that 30 suddenly becomes much
:55:02. > :55:07.more comfortable than it was before. You cannot get a budget through with
:55:08. > :55:12.30. You must have the support of at least one person from another party,
:55:13. > :55:17.or the whole of another party, which is Labour set up the joint committee
:55:18. > :55:21.with Plaid. They don't need that any more if Dafydd Elis Thomas is
:55:22. > :55:27.genuinely an independent. All they need to do is occasionally talk to
:55:28. > :55:31.him about new schools in his area and constituency. We know for the
:55:32. > :55:36.last three or four months, Plaid Cymru and Labour have had this
:55:37. > :55:41.committee looking ahead to the budget. If you are Carwyn Jones now,
:55:42. > :55:45.would you be thinking, let's continue with those discussions with
:55:46. > :55:50.Plaid Cymru, or would you be thinking, a new school in his
:55:51. > :55:54.constituency and I would have Dafydd Elis Thomas's support. Plaid have
:55:55. > :56:02.lost their leveraged. It is amazing that in a small body like the
:56:03. > :56:07.assembly with just 16 seats -- 60 seats and Labour having 30 of them,
:56:08. > :56:12.the difference one person can make. If Labour are one vote short of
:56:13. > :56:18.getting a budget through. They can block things because 30-30 is not
:56:19. > :56:24.enough. You have to have one extra person. With Plaid having lost that
:56:25. > :56:27.one, Labour haven't gained that one, but Plaid have lost their leveraged
:56:28. > :56:32.over the Labour government. The committees will probably continue
:56:33. > :56:37.but the Plaid strength on those committees is severely depleted by
:56:38. > :56:43.the defection of Dafydd Elis Thomas. I want to get onto the budget
:56:44. > :56:48.discussions as soon as possible. If you say Labour hasn't gained Dafydd
:56:49. > :56:53.Elis Thomas, which is true, but if you were Carwyn Jones, would you be
:56:54. > :56:58.tempted to offer him a seat in the cabinet? No, it is not practical.
:56:59. > :57:03.They have done it with Kirsty Williams. It was admired as a
:57:04. > :57:11.courageous thing for Carwyn Jones to do. Very courageous for Kirsty, on
:57:12. > :57:17.her own now. She accepted and with all the dangers of the Lib Dems be
:57:18. > :57:24.incorporated with the Labour majority, but it is still not enough
:57:25. > :57:31.to get the budget through. I don't think Labour would be happy and I am
:57:32. > :57:36.not sure Plaid, I am not sure Dafydd Elis Thomas has the ambition to be
:57:37. > :57:40.in the Labour Cabinet. He is just thoroughly cheesed off with a
:57:41. > :57:43.mindless opposition is, which he sees as part of Leanne Wood 's'
:57:44. > :57:46.leadership style in Plaid Cymru. So he has decided to become an
:57:47. > :57:53.independent after being Plaid's leader 30 years ago, and has
:57:54. > :58:00.represented his constituency for over 40 years now. On the budget
:58:01. > :58:05.itself and the details we can expect on Tuesday, there is a tiny bit of
:58:06. > :58:10.wriggle room, having scrapped Communities first, ?30 million to
:58:11. > :58:14.play with for the finance secretary. Where do you think the priority
:58:15. > :58:21.should be for the Welsh government? A lot of this is guesswork. Because
:58:22. > :58:25.the Autumn Statement from Philip Hammond will not take place until
:58:26. > :58:31.November the 23rd. Nobody knows whether he is going to reduce the
:58:32. > :58:37.austerity drive. He said he doesn't want to bring the borrowing down to
:58:38. > :58:42.zero by 2020. Should they have delayed it until after? I think that
:58:43. > :58:50.is what they are doing in Scotland. But you can't delay it in Wales. You
:58:51. > :58:55.have got to at least start. There is three stages to it, the second two
:58:56. > :58:58.stages will take place after the Autumn Statement. There will be
:58:59. > :59:01.bargaining across the parties, certainly there will be bargaining
:59:02. > :59:06.with Dafydd Elis Thomas under the new circumstances. I am trying to
:59:07. > :59:10.get what is trying to happen as regards, in particular those things
:59:11. > :59:14.subject to all the Brexit negotiations will revert to
:59:15. > :59:18.Westminster. They have guaranteed the European regional development
:59:19. > :59:23.fund equivalent. We can go ahead with projects, even though we might
:59:24. > :59:29.be out of the EU when we are halfway through those projects. But the
:59:30. > :59:34.issue then is, who will control the money? Will it be given to Cardiff
:59:35. > :59:39.Bay to spend or will the Treasury try and keep control of it and say,
:59:40. > :59:42.you can have regional development fund, but we will tell you the
:59:43. > :59:47.priorities and likewise for agriculture. A lot will happen and a
:59:48. > :59:52.lot of juggling of the balls in the air will take place between now and
:59:53. > :59:58.next March. Childcare, we told it would be ?84 million a year, but the
:59:59. > :00:02.lady who wrote the report, Labour is basing it on says comic could be
:00:03. > :00:06.?200 million a year. It is a difficult balancing act when those
:00:07. > :00:12.figures are never easy to nail down? Know, sometimes you start and think
:00:13. > :00:18.you can control the budget. Humans beings being the flexible animals
:00:19. > :00:24.they are, you end up spending more than you anticipated. You have got
:00:25. > :00:30.to be careful about long-term commitments, can you keep control
:00:31. > :00:35.over them in order to make sure you can still, during a period where
:00:36. > :00:39.there may be some slackening of austerity from everything Philip
:00:40. > :00:45.Hammond has said, but we are still in a period of austerity because you
:00:46. > :00:49.only have to look at the huge public sector borrowing requirement to
:00:50. > :00:53.realise it has got to be brought under some control at some point but
:00:54. > :00:58.without killing of economic growth. Is it where you think they should be
:00:59. > :01:05.targeting in those early years? Is it a good way to look at it? Early
:01:06. > :01:11.years is hugely important because the investment you make and the
:01:12. > :01:13.early in a child's life you make the investment, the chants is greater of
:01:14. > :01:16.reducing the gap investment, the chants is greater of
:01:17. > :01:19.in return for renewing vehicles. You.
:01:20. > :01:25.Will MPs get a vote on Theresa May's Brexit plans?
:01:26. > :01:28.Why are the Lib Dems throwing everything they've got
:01:29. > :01:30.at the by-election in David Cameron's old constituency?
:01:31. > :01:33.And what will happen next in the US presidential election?
:01:34. > :01:58.So this cross-party push to make the government come forward with the
:01:59. > :02:02.outlines of this negotiating strategy for Brexit, and put it to
:02:03. > :02:07.the Commons in particular, has that got traction? It has in that it is
:02:08. > :02:12.attracting a wide range of support in the House of Commons, which is
:02:13. > :02:19.now the crucial forum for these debates. Theresa May has said there
:02:20. > :02:23.will not be a vote before she triggers article 50. So we have two
:02:24. > :02:26.assume there will not be a vote. With this whole debate, there is a
:02:27. > :02:32.myth going about that we don't know much about what Brexit means. We
:02:33. > :02:38.know a heck of a lot about what it means. We know that when she opens
:02:39. > :02:42.her mouth, the pound falls. The pound is in a different position to
:02:43. > :02:46.the other Brexiteers. There is an accountability issue in terms of
:02:47. > :02:52.what the House of Commons will have a say in, and that could become a
:02:53. > :02:57.big story. Nicola Sturgeon has supported a second referendum. We
:02:58. > :03:07.know a huge amount, all of it dire, and I hope that MPs do get votes at
:03:08. > :03:10.some point. I suspect they will. For example, we are going to get one on
:03:11. > :03:14.this so-called repeal act, which is an act of consolidation. There will
:03:15. > :03:19.be others. We cannot leave the European Union without votes, but I
:03:20. > :03:23.don't think we will get one on Article 50. What they seem to be
:03:24. > :03:27.pushing for at the moment is a vote on the government's bargaining
:03:28. > :03:37.position. They are not saying they want all the details, although
:03:38. > :03:43.Labour has asked 70 questions. The Commons needs to improve them, it is
:03:44. > :03:49.said. Is that fair? It is absurd. You don't go into negotiating with
:03:50. > :03:52.Brussels talking about what was published in all the national
:03:53. > :03:58.newspapers last week about what our red lines are. I don't remember any
:03:59. > :04:05.other international trade deal being done in the public eye. Theresa May
:04:06. > :04:10.hasn't said a red line on immigration. She has uttered those
:04:11. > :04:15.words. There are lots of other intricate details. Of course they
:04:16. > :04:21.are, but we broadly know her position. And broadly we know the EU
:04:22. > :04:25.position. Broad knowledge is not the same as specific. The point is that
:04:26. > :04:30.the British Parliament, all these people who are so obsessed with the
:04:31. > :04:34.British Parliament having its say and democracy, they didn't care for
:04:35. > :04:39.very many years when they happily handed over powers. The Lisbon
:04:40. > :04:46.Treaty, which is like a new constitution. It handed over far
:04:47. > :04:49.more powers again and again. And there was an express vote not to
:04:50. > :04:55.have a referendum for the British people. But we have now given our
:04:56. > :04:58.say. Putting aside whether you are for or against, is it realistic that
:04:59. > :05:02.the government will come forward with some kind of green paper all
:05:03. > :05:08.white paper that gives a broad outline of the government's Brexit
:05:09. > :05:14.position? When you have the majority of between ten and 20, there is one
:05:15. > :05:19.thing you have to do as Prime Minister, and that is to learn to
:05:20. > :05:23.count. Theresa May hasn't done that. There will be a vote in the House of
:05:24. > :05:30.Commons. Whether it's binding or not, because MPs will make one. What
:05:31. > :05:35.will vote be on? They will demand that the government spelt out its
:05:36. > :05:39.Brexit strategy. It will not be binding, unless they tried to
:05:40. > :05:44.shoehorn something onto government legislation, which I don't think
:05:45. > :05:48.they will do. They will be unsure. The will of the House of Commons
:05:49. > :05:53.will express itself simply because there is a majority in the House of
:05:54. > :05:58.Commons, a clear one, for soft Brexit. There will be a vote, the
:05:59. > :06:03.government will lose it, and then it is up to Theresa May whether to pay
:06:04. > :06:08.any attention to it. But she has got herself into this problem because
:06:09. > :06:12.she has adopted the views of the 52 against the 48, dropping any sort of
:06:13. > :06:19.language about consensus and bringing the country back together.
:06:20. > :06:23.If the Commons votes against the government on this, it will be seen
:06:24. > :06:28.as a major setback for the government and the Prime Minister.
:06:29. > :06:32.Yes, seismic. Of course she can ignore it if you are talking about
:06:33. > :06:38.it in relation to triggering Article 50. In a way, it happened with
:06:39. > :06:42.Maastricht as well. The House of Commons will move centrestage, and
:06:43. > :06:51.that context is that tiny majority. She has a smaller majority than John
:06:52. > :06:53.Major had in the 90s, and it's going to be far more turbulent than
:06:54. > :07:01.perhaps her calm, assured a facade suggests. Theresa May is a serious,
:07:02. > :07:06.fully formed politician, with six years in the Home Office, but she
:07:07. > :07:10.has never had experience of the Treasury or the Foreign Office. This
:07:11. > :07:16.is massive, massive politics, and I don't think she's ready for it. I
:07:17. > :07:21.don't blame her for that. If it comes to a conflict between the
:07:22. > :07:26.result of the referendum and the position Parliament has taken, there
:07:27. > :07:30.is a chance she will call another election? Effectively, it will be a
:07:31. > :07:35.vote of no-confidence in her government. She should call another
:07:36. > :07:40.election. I think the British people be very clear. The remainers I know
:07:41. > :07:44.have all completely accept it that we are going to have this. There is
:07:45. > :07:48.a mandate for leaves and the Prime Minister should get on with it. I
:07:49. > :07:52.think the British people will not take kindly to any MP who gets in
:07:53. > :08:01.the way. We have two by-elections this week. One in Whitley and one in
:08:02. > :08:04.Batley and Spen, the seat held by Jo Cox. The main parties are not
:08:05. > :08:12.competing in that because of the appalling circumstances in which her
:08:13. > :08:18.terrible murder took place. The Lib Dems are coming big in Witney. They
:08:19. > :08:22.came fourth in the general election, rather forepaws, that they are
:08:23. > :08:26.bigging themselves up in this one. That wise? They've got to do
:08:27. > :08:35.something to get themselves attention. They need to get noticed.
:08:36. > :08:40.But what they have in their favour is that the constituency Witney
:08:41. > :08:45.voted 53% remain and 47% leave in the EU referendum. So they will be
:08:46. > :08:50.trying to get the remain a vote. This is the first test of their
:08:51. > :08:56.remain a strategy. It is interesting that Theresa May bothered to come
:08:57. > :09:04.out and campaign on Saturdays. There she is. The Prime Minister and the
:09:05. > :09:10.former Prime Minister out campaigning. They are not going to
:09:11. > :09:17.win, that they would have to come second. David Cameron had a 60% vote
:09:18. > :09:22.there, for goodness sake. The Tory candidate was a Leave campaign. The
:09:23. > :09:27.fact she is out campaigning isn't a sign of lack of confidence. She must
:09:28. > :09:32.be confident they will win, otherwise she wouldn't be seen near
:09:33. > :09:37.the place. OK, the American election. Just when you thought it
:09:38. > :09:42.couldn't get crazier. We are familiar with drug tests for
:09:43. > :09:46.athletes and cyclists, and all sorts of things in sport. But Mr Trump has
:09:47. > :09:51.now called for a drug test before the third and final debate coming up
:09:52. > :09:54.this Wednesday. Am I making it up? No, I'm not.
:09:55. > :09:57.I think we should take a drug test prior to the debate.
:09:58. > :10:02.We should take a drug test prior, because I don't know
:10:03. > :10:06.what's going on with her, but at the beginning of her last
:10:07. > :10:12.debate she was all pumped up at the beginning,
:10:13. > :10:15.and at the end it was like, uuh, take me down.
:10:16. > :10:19.So I think we should take a drug test.
:10:20. > :10:36.He's also talking about the election being rigged as well, which may be
:10:37. > :10:42.ground work for making his excuses. But here's the issue. That was
:10:43. > :10:47.yesterday. With everything that went before, overnight, the latest
:10:48. > :10:51.Washington post-ABC News poll. Mrs Clinton is ahead by only four
:10:52. > :10:56.points. It's almost within the margin of error. Down from about ten
:10:57. > :11:04.points after sexual assault gate. The simple reason why Trump got the
:11:05. > :11:09.Republican nomination, beating 50 or 60 Republican moderates, why he's
:11:10. > :11:13.been doing pretty well in the polls until the last two of weeks, people
:11:14. > :11:18.buy into the anti-establishment thing. All you need to do is stand
:11:19. > :11:21.there and say, of course they would say that, because they are all
:11:22. > :11:30.crooked. That is the single biggest thing he's got going for him. The
:11:31. > :11:34.Washington Post - ABC News poll suggests the whole business of the
:11:35. > :11:47.nude tapes actually haven't made that much difference. -- huge tape.
:11:48. > :11:57.-- lewd tape. Once you position yourself, you can almost say
:11:58. > :12:01.anything you like, and then respond by saying, the elite would say that,
:12:02. > :12:06.wouldn't they? You cannot really deal with that as an argument,
:12:07. > :12:12.because you would just say, oh, that's you lot, you would say that.
:12:13. > :12:17.There is a point where it becomes absurd, though, and I think this
:12:18. > :12:24.current thing on doping tests is laugh out loud stuff. That surely
:12:25. > :12:31.can't help him. You cannot think, what are the undecideds thinking
:12:32. > :12:34.about this? There was a lot of information, not in the century, but
:12:35. > :12:43.some information is more e-mails from Mrs Clinton are leaked. They
:12:44. > :12:53.are showing her to be very much a globalisation person, very close to
:12:54. > :12:59.Wall Street, talking about why... As Donald Trump said last week, it was
:13:00. > :13:04.good to have the shackles off. This is him with the shackles off. The
:13:05. > :13:09.reality is, all the stuff about Hillary not being very likeable and
:13:10. > :13:13.dishonest, that is already factored into the polls. All the stuff about
:13:14. > :13:18.Donald Trump being lecherous and racist is already factored in. What
:13:19. > :13:24.still blows my mind is that people are still undecided! He's given
:13:25. > :13:26.Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. It is going to be very interesting to
:13:27. > :13:28.see. Jo Coburn has more Daily Politics
:13:29. > :13:32.tomorrow at midday on BBC Two. I'll be back next Sunday
:13:33. > :13:34.at 11am here on BBC One. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:35. > :13:39.it's the Sunday Politics.