:00:36. > :00:41.There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next
:00:42. > :00:44.leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,
:00:45. > :00:51.This man might have something to say about that.
:00:52. > :00:53.Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.
:00:54. > :00:56.So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?
:00:57. > :01:02.The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane
:01:03. > :01:04.on the country's second city which has been in the hands of
:01:05. > :01:12.But what will be the fallout from this key clash?
:01:13. > :01:15.Carwyn Jones will tell us about his red lines on Brexit.
:01:16. > :01:18.And Leavve Wood says she doesn't rule out a coalition with Labour
:01:19. > :01:23.during this Assembly term. one of the richest cities in the
:01:24. > :01:24.world. Should all private landlords be licensed to help tackle the
:01:25. > :01:29.squalor? And with me - as always -
:01:30. > :01:32.the best and the brightest political panel in the business: Toby Young,
:01:33. > :01:35.Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn - The last leader was in the job
:01:36. > :01:44.a mere 18 days before she decided The favourite to succeed her then
:01:45. > :01:50.quit the party after a now infamous Ukip's biggest donor says the party
:01:51. > :01:55.is at "breaking point". This morning, the former
:01:56. > :02:02.Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans, announced that she would be
:02:03. > :02:04.running for the leadership. I've thought long and hard
:02:05. > :02:09.about this leadership bid, and one of the reasons I've perhaps
:02:10. > :02:12.delayed announcing it is because I wanted to be absolutely
:02:13. > :02:15.sure that I had the support And I can confirm that I have
:02:16. > :02:19.more than enough signatures on the nomination form already
:02:20. > :02:22.to be able to go forward. Let's not forget that 3,000 people
:02:23. > :02:26.signed a petition in support of me I know head office was besieged
:02:27. > :02:31.with letters in support. I would not be doing this
:02:32. > :02:35.if I didn't have the backing of our members, because our members
:02:36. > :02:37.are the most important Well, Paul Nuttall was
:02:38. > :02:46.Nigel Farage's deputy for many years and plenty of people saw him
:02:47. > :02:49.as a leader-in-waiting. Let's ask the man himself -
:02:50. > :03:02.Paul Nuttall joins me now. Yes. I've made the decision that I'm
:03:03. > :03:07.going to put my name forward to be the next leader of Ukip. I have huge
:03:08. > :03:11.support across the country, not only amongst people at the top of the
:03:12. > :03:16.party in Westminster and with the MEPs, but also the grassroots. I
:03:17. > :03:21.want to be the unity candidate. Ukip needs to come together. I'm not
:03:22. > :03:25.going to gild the lily. Ukip is looking over a political cliff at
:03:26. > :03:36.the moment. It will either step four step back, and I want to tell us to
:03:37. > :03:38.step backwards. You say it faces an ex-distension or threat, which means
:03:39. > :03:41.it's possible it has no future at all. Students of political history
:03:42. > :03:48.know that political parties take a long time to get going. They can
:03:49. > :03:52.disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is facing an existential crisis. What
:03:53. > :03:57.happened over the summer has put us on a... We could be on a spiral that
:03:58. > :04:02.we can't get off. But I believe I am the man to bring the factions
:04:03. > :04:06.together, to create unity within the party, and to build on the structure
:04:07. > :04:11.and get us ready for the common challenges. Why didn't you stand
:04:12. > :04:16.last time? Because I have spent the last four or five years of my life
:04:17. > :04:20.travelling around the country. I have done more Ukip meetings than
:04:21. > :04:25.anybody else, spending a lot of time away from home. With Brexit, I felt
:04:26. > :04:30.that my job and Nigel's job was done and we could hand over to the next
:04:31. > :04:34.generation. That doesn't seem to be the case, and maybe it's time for
:04:35. > :04:38.someone who is an old hand. I'm very experienced and I know the party
:04:39. > :04:43.inside out. Maybe it's time to step in and bring the party together. You
:04:44. > :04:50.told the Liverpool Echo on the night of July that you didn't wish to take
:04:51. > :04:59.on Nigel Farage, you didn't want that to happen to your family and
:05:00. > :05:03.friends. What has changed? The party is facing an existential crisis, and
:05:04. > :05:09.I want to make sure that Ukip is on the pitch to keep the ball into the
:05:10. > :05:16.open net we have in politics. We have a Conservative Party who is
:05:17. > :05:20.moving toward Brexit, but we have to be there too. Why would you be
:05:21. > :05:26.better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne would be an excellent candidate. I
:05:27. > :05:30.thought the 2015 manifesto was the best out of all the political
:05:31. > :05:34.parties. I would be the best candidate because of my experience.
:05:35. > :05:39.I am not part of any faction within the party. Is she? I get on well
:05:40. > :05:45.with everybody, and I believe I could be the man to bring the party
:05:46. > :05:50.together. Do you get on with Iain Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is
:05:51. > :05:56.supporting one of your rivals? Yes, I get on well with him. He is able
:05:57. > :06:00.to choose whoever he wants to be the next leader of the party. After
:06:01. > :06:05.November 28, the leadership election, we all say, the past the
:06:06. > :06:13.past. It becomes Daisy row for the new leader. We forget all that has
:06:14. > :06:16.before and move on. You won the referendum. Mrs May is adopting some
:06:17. > :06:22.of your policies, like grammar schools. What is the point of Ukip
:06:23. > :06:26.these days? Twofold. We don't have Brexit. Mrs May said she would not
:06:27. > :06:32.invoke Article 50 until the end of March, and we don't know if that
:06:33. > :06:38.will happen. We need to ensure a strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit
:06:39. > :06:41.really does mean Brexit. We have a huge opportunity in working class
:06:42. > :06:46.communities where the Labour Party no longer represents them. I believe
:06:47. > :06:50.Ukip can become the voice of working people. If you were the leader,
:06:51. > :06:55.would Ukip be a bigger threat to Labour in the north or the Tories in
:06:56. > :06:59.the South? You save Labour in the north, and people often to make that
:07:00. > :07:03.mistake. There's working class communities right across the country
:07:04. > :07:16.is. There are working-class communities in Bristol just
:07:17. > :07:19.as in Newcastle. We are second in a number of northern seats, and
:07:20. > :07:22.southern seats as well, and I believe the party can move into
:07:23. > :07:25.these communities. It can only do so if Ukip is on the pitch, and I
:07:26. > :07:31.intend to make sure that's the case. I don't think we have portrayed a
:07:32. > :07:38.good image over the summer. Is that called British understatement? A
:07:39. > :07:43.bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have
:07:44. > :07:48.to build a strong national Executive Committee. We need to ensure our
:07:49. > :07:52.branches are ready for the fight and concentrate on local elections. I've
:07:53. > :07:58.got the experience. I'm now throwing my hat into the ring, and I'm the
:07:59. > :08:02.only person who can keep Ukip in the game. What role would you give Nigel
:08:03. > :08:07.Farage, if any? I will be the candidate of compromise. I would see
:08:08. > :08:11.what Nigel wanted to do. Would you keep in the leader of the freedom
:08:12. > :08:15.and democracy group in the European Parliament? There would have to be
:08:16. > :08:21.compromise on both sides, and we would need to talk about it. I don't
:08:22. > :08:25.know what Nigel wants to do. Do you think his support, his association
:08:26. > :08:30.with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win female votes in this country?
:08:31. > :08:34.Personally, I would not have gone out and campaigned or said anything
:08:35. > :08:41.about Donald Trump, but I don't think Ukip has come out and backed
:08:42. > :08:45.Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I wouldn't have even spoken about the
:08:46. > :08:50.American election, because I think the two candidates are quite
:08:51. > :08:55.appalling. Some up for us. If you win, what would be the hallmark of
:08:56. > :09:01.your Ukip leadership? The first couple of months would be ensuring
:09:02. > :09:07.that Ukip unifies. Saying no to factions, bringing people together.
:09:08. > :09:11.Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can
:09:12. > :09:15.move forward. If we don't unify, Ukip will not be around for much
:09:16. > :09:18.longer. Thanks for being with us this morning.
:09:19. > :09:20.We won't have to wait too long to find out who Ukip's
:09:21. > :09:23.new leader will be - the winner will be announced
:09:24. > :09:32.Who would be the best leader for Ukip? I think the difference between
:09:33. > :09:36.the field a few weeks ago and today is that this field is a lot
:09:37. > :09:43.stronger. Whether it's Paul or Suzanne, I think... It is hard to
:09:44. > :09:53.say, with Aaron Banks and apparently Nigel Farage hacking another
:09:54. > :10:03.candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip to be a strong force in British
:10:04. > :10:10.politics. I think the fact there is a stronger field now is good news
:10:11. > :10:16.for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst nightmare in the north of England?
:10:17. > :10:19.It is. I think the personality difference and presentational
:10:20. > :10:24.difference is interesting. Suzanne Evans is going for the Conservative
:10:25. > :10:28.county vote. There's a lot to be taken there by Ukip. He would
:10:29. > :10:35.probably be more appealing to the Labour vote. It is interesting. At
:10:36. > :10:48.the moment, pollsters say that the Ukip vote splits pretty easily
:10:49. > :10:53.between Labour and Tory. But things always collapse. When they have made
:10:54. > :10:57.inroads into Tower Hamlets and Barking, they collapse, because they
:10:58. > :11:09.fight amongst each other so much. But not always with fists! Does Ukip
:11:10. > :11:14.have a future? And who would best secure that future? It does for at
:11:15. > :11:20.least two years, until we Brexit. We have to believe that that will
:11:21. > :11:24.happen. That was an impressive pitch there from Paul, certainly as the
:11:25. > :11:29.unity candidate, after the car crash we have seen on TV screens this
:11:30. > :11:33.morning. But it doesn't go beyond May 20 19. What then? There is no
:11:34. > :11:39.point being called the United Kingdom Independence party any
:11:40. > :11:44.longer. What will happen after May 2019? If you want to hoover up votes
:11:45. > :11:49.of the back of Brexit, you need to start looking further ahead than two
:11:50. > :11:53.years. The person who wins that leadership contest is the person who
:11:54. > :11:56.will sum that up the best. We shall see.
:11:57. > :11:59.In June 2014, the group which calls itself the Islamic State in Iraq
:12:00. > :12:01.and the Levant captured Iraq's second city, Mosul.
:12:02. > :12:04.Later that month the group announced it was establishing a 'caliphate',
:12:05. > :12:06.or an Islamic state, on the territories it
:12:07. > :12:15.This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided by Iranian-backed Shia fighters,
:12:16. > :12:20.Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air support, began the assault
:12:21. > :12:38.Then they spot a truck bomb from so-called Islamic State.
:12:39. > :12:42.They destroy it before it destroys them.
:12:43. > :12:45.These are the first steps in the battle for Mosul,
:12:46. > :12:50.the Northern Iraqi city IS has made its stronghold since 2014.
:12:51. > :12:55.Controlling the city of around 2 million people means
:12:56. > :12:59.that they established governance, they establish a territorial base.
:13:00. > :13:02.This is what has obsessed everyone, because with a territorial base
:13:03. > :13:07.you are capable of doing more than if you are simply an insurgency
:13:08. > :13:11.movement in the fabric of another society.
:13:12. > :13:15.It's being billed as the biggest military operation in Iraq
:13:16. > :13:19.since the war in 2003, the biggest moment in the international effort
:13:20. > :13:25.Here is how the various forces are approaching the city.
:13:26. > :13:29.Heading to Mosul from the south, the elite troops of the Iraqi army.
:13:30. > :13:31.Known as the Golden division, trained and accompanied
:13:32. > :13:38.From the North, a force made up of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga,
:13:39. > :13:44.Also from the South, a militia made up of Shia fighters
:13:45. > :13:47.who have been accused of human rights abuses.
:13:48. > :13:50.British planes have bombed outlying villages, reportedly guided
:13:51. > :13:57.in by British personnel on the ground.
:13:58. > :14:00.To the North West, a corridor has been left for some
:14:01. > :14:02.of the 3000 plus IS fighters, in theory an escape route
:14:03. > :14:06.which could limit the bloodshed when fighting starts in the city.
:14:07. > :14:08.We've had 4-5 days of battle and it's taking place
:14:09. > :14:10.in the outlying villages and there have been some
:14:11. > :14:13.successes and some failures, but the momentum is building.
:14:14. > :14:16.And the real question will be when the attackers get
:14:17. > :14:20.towards the city itself, how strong are the defences?
:14:21. > :14:27.It will crack but it might crack within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks.
:14:28. > :14:32.IS has fought back, on Friday they attack sites
:14:33. > :14:34.in the city of Kirkuk, including a power station.
:14:35. > :14:36.The United Nations believes hundreds of thousands of families
:14:37. > :14:39.have been rounded up as potential human shields.
:14:40. > :14:44.The battle could be bloody, but what about when it's over?
:14:45. > :14:46.The Shia militias, the Iraqi army, the Peshmerga guerrillas,
:14:47. > :14:49.some of the Turkish elements, they all want a share of the action.
:14:50. > :14:53.They are in Mosul, not for altruistic reasons.
:14:54. > :14:56.They are there because they want to be part of whatever happens next.
:14:57. > :15:01.The biggest issue is how the Sunni majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia
:15:02. > :15:05.militias which have helped to liberate them.
:15:06. > :15:07.ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis Humphrey went to Mosul
:15:08. > :15:11.If it all seems like something from the archive, when the Middle
:15:12. > :15:14.East went up in flames and was then carved up,
:15:15. > :15:18.it is because that is what is happening in Iraq right now.
:15:19. > :15:22.National identity has been cut across by other identities such
:15:23. > :15:32.And that means that putting together a so-called nation state again
:15:33. > :15:38.Almost certainly there will be a new form of Kurdish state,
:15:39. > :15:41.almost certainly in northern Iraq at the end of this crisis,
:15:42. > :15:45.and what is happening in Mosul is a microcosm of what is happening
:15:46. > :15:48.elsewhere across the Levant which is that it is melting down.
:15:49. > :15:51.Big questions, questions that come after the battle.
:15:52. > :15:53.The coalition forces are advancing but this is just the beginning.
:15:54. > :16:03.I'm joined now by the International Development Minister Rory Stewart.
:16:04. > :16:06.In a former life he was the coalition Deputy-Governor of two
:16:07. > :16:14.provinces in Southern Iraq following the Iraq intervention of 2003.
:16:15. > :16:24.Is there any doubt that at some stage Mosul will fall to the forces
:16:25. > :16:33.of Iraq and its allies? The first thing is that war is very uncertain
:16:34. > :16:36.and there are cliches about it being the graveyard of predictions and we
:16:37. > :16:41.don't want to make confident predictions but the basic structure
:16:42. > :16:51.is that there are 30,000 Iraqi forces outside and only a few
:16:52. > :16:53.thousand Daesh fighters inside and I would say it is overwhelmingly
:16:54. > :17:01.likely that the batter will one STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the
:17:02. > :17:09.Iraqi forces. June 2014 was a great success, they
:17:10. > :17:15.took a city of over in people and they created what they tried to
:17:16. > :17:18.create a million state of 7 million people, stretching across the Iraqi
:17:19. > :17:23.Syrian border, but since then they have lost territory quite rapidly.
:17:24. > :17:28.Now they are losing the outskirts of Mosul, and that is a fundamental
:17:29. > :17:30.blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is
:17:31. > :17:37.what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that
:17:38. > :17:42.will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary
:17:43. > :17:46.Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi
:17:47. > :17:50.forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of
:17:51. > :17:56.Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which
:17:57. > :18:02.is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we
:18:03. > :18:09.want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.
:18:10. > :18:12.Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the
:18:13. > :18:17.border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of
:18:18. > :18:22.that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the
:18:23. > :18:29.coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is
:18:30. > :18:33.likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street
:18:34. > :18:38.to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we
:18:39. > :18:43.doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is
:18:44. > :18:48.very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone
:18:49. > :18:58.into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps
:18:59. > :19:04.around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, ?40
:19:05. > :19:07.million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms
:19:08. > :19:15.of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response
:19:16. > :19:17.budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we
:19:18. > :19:22.are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is
:19:23. > :19:25.that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this
:19:26. > :19:32.assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You
:19:33. > :19:36.are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning
:19:37. > :19:41.since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --
:19:42. > :19:45.planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the
:19:46. > :19:48.appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we
:19:49. > :19:53.need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in
:19:54. > :19:56.place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is
:19:57. > :20:00.continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.
:20:01. > :20:04.The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big
:20:05. > :20:10.exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist
:20:11. > :20:15.magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a
:20:16. > :20:19.unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios, it
:20:20. > :20:22.could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out
:20:23. > :20:27.of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is
:20:28. > :20:30.very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and
:20:31. > :20:34.keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring
:20:35. > :20:38.them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been
:20:39. > :20:42.working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we
:20:43. > :20:48.have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have
:20:49. > :20:52.worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their
:20:53. > :20:55.structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have
:20:56. > :21:00.done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the
:21:01. > :21:06.British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming
:21:07. > :21:12.that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt
:21:13. > :21:18.with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be
:21:19. > :21:23.crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need
:21:24. > :21:28.to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as
:21:29. > :21:32.bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by
:21:33. > :21:39.the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is
:21:40. > :21:42.that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they
:21:43. > :21:48.have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is
:21:49. > :21:53.stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making
:21:54. > :21:57.sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is
:21:58. > :22:03.making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK's
:22:04. > :22:08.response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that
:22:09. > :22:12.is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the
:22:13. > :22:16.front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to
:22:17. > :22:20.make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that
:22:21. > :22:27.population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing
:22:28. > :22:32.territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we
:22:33. > :22:38.think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part
:22:39. > :22:42.of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult
:22:43. > :22:48.across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United
:22:49. > :22:54.Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real
:22:55. > :22:58.danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last
:22:59. > :23:04.five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop
:23:05. > :23:09.often it does unexpected things. In 2009 its predecessor had been
:23:10. > :23:13.largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it
:23:14. > :23:17.went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it
:23:18. > :23:20.holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it
:23:21. > :23:24.gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else
:23:25. > :23:29.and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They
:23:30. > :23:35.say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a
:23:36. > :23:37.big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we
:23:38. > :23:49.keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say. --
:23:50. > :23:52.safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in
:23:53. > :24:00.Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen
:24:01. > :24:02.in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the
:24:03. > :24:05.conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much
:24:06. > :24:10.energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the
:24:11. > :24:15.humanitarian response in place -- put so much energy. People will want
:24:16. > :24:18.to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to
:24:19. > :24:22.make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking
:24:23. > :24:25.after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they
:24:26. > :24:31.have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why
:24:32. > :24:34.our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals
:24:35. > :24:42.with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.
:24:43. > :24:49.I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.
:24:50. > :25:01.Does Labour support British participation in this offensive? We
:25:02. > :25:05.fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important
:25:06. > :25:11.move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the
:25:12. > :25:14.government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State
:25:15. > :25:20.this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF
:25:21. > :25:24.pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces
:25:25. > :25:29.on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if
:25:30. > :25:36.you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your
:25:37. > :25:38.leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.
:25:39. > :25:40.What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi
:25:41. > :25:42.government, and currently supported by the British government.
:25:43. > :25:44.I did not support it when it came up.
:25:45. > :25:48.Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most
:25:49. > :25:51.of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we
:25:52. > :26:01.He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been
:26:02. > :26:04.very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have
:26:05. > :26:09.learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt
:26:10. > :26:13.sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the
:26:14. > :26:19.aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was
:26:20. > :26:26.from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told
:26:27. > :26:31.the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air
:26:32. > :26:35.strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in
:26:36. > :26:37.Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face
:26:38. > :26:42.the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.
:26:43. > :26:50.We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it
:26:51. > :26:54.is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic
:26:55. > :26:58.State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is
:26:59. > :27:04.he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the
:27:05. > :27:08.past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,
:27:09. > :27:11.both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also
:27:12. > :27:17.in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you
:27:18. > :27:20.mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress
:27:21. > :27:26.with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do
:27:27. > :27:38.you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to
:27:39. > :27:47.read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the
:27:48. > :27:54.car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems
:27:55. > :27:59.they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to
:28:00. > :28:03.pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have
:28:04. > :28:07.become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer
:28:08. > :28:13.interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to
:28:14. > :28:17.the renewal of Trident? It will. We made that commitment in 2007, that
:28:18. > :28:21.is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies
:28:22. > :28:25.and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken
:28:26. > :28:28.democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference
:28:29. > :28:37.and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy
:28:38. > :28:40.Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,
:28:41. > :28:44.but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the
:28:45. > :28:50.international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very
:28:51. > :28:54.clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the
:28:55. > :28:59.next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of
:29:00. > :29:03.Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a
:29:04. > :29:07.very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are
:29:08. > :29:15.reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can't
:29:16. > :29:18.change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues
:29:19. > :29:25.related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can't
:29:26. > :29:29.change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to
:29:30. > :29:33.Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It
:29:34. > :29:36.is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato
:29:37. > :29:41.allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not
:29:42. > :29:44.let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the
:29:45. > :29:49.way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be
:29:50. > :29:54.taking them to international court over this, but we should also be
:29:55. > :29:59.strengthening sanctions, somewhat imposed over Ukraine. We try to do
:30:00. > :30:04.that, but the Italians wouldn't let us. The Italians did not want to
:30:05. > :30:09.participate in the European initiative but that doesn't stop
:30:10. > :30:14.individual countries for the Britain should step up? Yes, we should look
:30:15. > :30:20.at what is practical to impose. Thanks for joining us.
:30:21. > :30:23.Mosul is not the only major battle being waged in the Middle East.
:30:24. > :30:26.The city of Aleppo in northern Syria has seen some of the heaviest
:30:27. > :30:29.bombardment since Syria's five-year-long civil war began.
:30:30. > :30:32.This week Russian warships, in a deliberate show of power,
:30:33. > :30:36.sailed west through the English channel en route to Syria.
:30:37. > :30:39.Nato says it's Russia's "largest surface deployment" since the end
:30:40. > :30:42.of the Cold War in what is thought to be preparation
:30:43. > :30:46.for a final assault on the besieged city of Aleppo.
:30:47. > :30:50.In the city itself fighting resumed overnight -
:30:51. > :30:55.following a 3-day ceasefire - with more air strikes and heavy
:30:56. > :30:58.clashes in the city's rebel-held eastern districts.
:30:59. > :31:01.Almost 500 people have been killed and 2,000 injured
:31:02. > :31:05.since Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes,
:31:06. > :31:13.This week Theresa May condemned Vladimir Putin's involvement
:31:14. > :31:15.in Syria, accusing Moscow of being behind "sickening
:31:16. > :31:18.atrocities" in support of President Assad's regime.
:31:19. > :31:23.But European leaders are divided on how to respond and,
:31:24. > :31:25.with the United States preoccupied with domestic politics,
:31:26. > :31:29.President Putin senses this is his moment to bring the Syrian
:31:30. > :31:37.I'm joined now by the BBC's former Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent,
:31:38. > :31:45.Bridget Kendall, who is now Master of Peterhouse College in Cambridge.
:31:46. > :31:53.Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC studio again. Let me put up this
:31:54. > :32:00.satellite image of Aleppo here, to get an idea of the scale. It was the
:32:01. > :32:05.biggest city in Syria. It was the commercial capital and a huge
:32:06. > :32:09.cultural hub as well. Almost the New York of Syria, to give you an idea
:32:10. > :32:15.of its significance to the country. Let me show you now how it's been
:32:16. > :32:23.divided. The rebels are now in control of the eastern part, about
:32:24. > :32:25.eight miles long and three miles wide there, they're in purple. They
:32:26. > :32:33.are under great attacks still. Is it inevitable that that purple part
:32:34. > :32:38.falls to the regime? That is what President as Saad, the Russians and
:32:39. > :32:45.the Iranians hope. The fierce bombardments we have seen is part of
:32:46. > :32:51.that. I'm reminded very much in the Russian tactics of what happened in
:32:52. > :32:56.grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when the Russians said, a warning for all
:32:57. > :33:01.civilians to lead, and then they went ahead and they basically raised
:33:02. > :33:06.it to the ground. They are talking about Al Nusrah as being one of the
:33:07. > :33:10.rebel groups. They got rid of all of the terrorists. They talk about it
:33:11. > :33:15.being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The purpose of going in is to get rid of
:33:16. > :33:20.them. You get the civilians out and then you take it. But this isn't
:33:21. > :33:25.like Chechnya. It is much more complex. We have seen an attempt to
:33:26. > :33:30.take Aleppo before, and then there was a rebel counter offensive. It's
:33:31. > :33:33.not so certain. And there are so many different parties involved. We
:33:34. > :33:37.have seen the alarm in the west of the extent of the civilian
:33:38. > :33:47.casualties. There have been rumblings in the west of, shouldn't
:33:48. > :33:49.the United States do something? Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air
:33:50. > :33:53.force? This Russian aircraft carrier steaming its way towards the Eastern
:33:54. > :34:01.Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture, both to its own people, but also to
:34:02. > :34:06.the West, to say, don't get involved in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try
:34:07. > :34:11.and stop us because we could up the ante. They have not been great
:34:12. > :34:16.visual pictures, because the aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped
:34:17. > :34:23.out, belching out smoke! If the rebel controlled area does fall, it
:34:24. > :34:27.would be seen as a great victory for President as Saad and his Russian
:34:28. > :34:32.allies. What is the aim of Russia here? What would they then do, if
:34:33. > :34:37.Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan that President Putin set out in his
:34:38. > :34:42.UN speech in 2014, before Russia went into Syria. The aim is to put
:34:43. > :34:47.President Assad back in charge. President Putin said this weekend
:34:48. > :34:52.that either is Assad in Damascus, or its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in
:34:53. > :34:57.between. They want to eliminate the argument for a moderate opposition.
:34:58. > :35:05.They want to make it plain that the only way to get a stable Syria is to
:35:06. > :35:14.have Assad back in charge. Even sue argue for a rump steak lit, leaving
:35:15. > :35:19.aside what is happening with IAS. They have already said they want to
:35:20. > :35:24.have an enlarged military presence at their bases. And they have a big
:35:25. > :35:29.naval base. It is. It is a chance to push for this when he sees the West
:35:30. > :35:37.is being distracted and divided. Europe and America, by elections and
:35:38. > :35:41.so on. Just before the US elections. The Americans are worried about
:35:42. > :35:46.that, Europeans are being distracted by Brexit. He can push to his
:35:47. > :35:54.maximum advantage now, before there is a new US president. If they do
:35:55. > :36:03.take that part of Aleppo, and that part of northern Syria, does Mr
:36:04. > :36:08.Putin want us to recognise, to admit, that that is now his sphere
:36:09. > :36:12.of influence? I think the rhetoric from the Russians is that they want
:36:13. > :36:17.the West to recognise that they are an equal powerful partner. It's not
:36:18. > :36:23.just the US that runs the writ in the Middle East. Russia is as
:36:24. > :36:27.important as it is. It is engaging with Saudi Arabia and has mended
:36:28. > :36:34.fences with Turkey. Syria is the place from which it can launch its
:36:35. > :36:39.message that it is a big player in the Middle East. Russia wants the
:36:40. > :36:42.West to understand that this isn't a country that was dismembered after
:36:43. > :36:47.the end of the Soviet Union and is now a week. It is back, and it is
:36:48. > :36:54.strong. That is an important message. Looking at the economy. It
:36:55. > :36:59.is in recession. GDP has been falling, partly because of the price
:37:00. > :37:04.of oil. It is highly dependent on hydrocarbons, and is expected to
:37:05. > :37:09.fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how
:37:10. > :37:16.small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It
:37:17. > :37:24.is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years
:37:25. > :37:29.ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?
:37:30. > :37:35.A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a
:37:36. > :37:41.price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting
:37:42. > :37:46.the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which
:37:47. > :37:51.is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and
:37:52. > :37:58.dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.
:37:59. > :38:03.But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are
:38:04. > :38:07.supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2017,
:38:08. > :38:12.because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for
:38:13. > :38:15.the Russian people. Thank you very much.
:38:16. > :38:25.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:26. > :38:27.Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:38:28. > :38:30.In a few minutes the First Minister will be here live to tell us
:38:31. > :38:33.what his red lines are over Brexit, ahead of a crucial meeting
:38:34. > :38:39.And 50 years after Aberfan, politicians unite to pay
:38:40. > :38:47.But first it's been quite a week for Plaid Cymru.
:38:48. > :38:48.Last Sunday we had Dafydd Elis-Thomas here explaining
:38:49. > :38:53.One reason he gave was that it wasn't willing to work
:38:54. > :38:57.Since then, however, it seems Plaid have decided to do
:38:58. > :39:02.all they can to prove Lord Elis-Thomas wrong.
:39:03. > :39:06.On Tuesday the finance secretary Mark Drakeford set out the Welsh
:39:07. > :39:09.Government spending plans for next year.
:39:10. > :39:13.There were of course plenty of Labour pledges in there.
:39:14. > :39:15.More money for the NHS, a touch more money for
:39:16. > :39:22.Plaid Cymru AMs claim their fingerprints were all over a lot of
:39:23. > :39:23.the promises, including more money for universities,
:39:24. > :39:29.The deal came after months of budget negotiations between the
:39:30. > :39:36.Surely the kind of co-operation Lord Elis-Thomas would
:39:37. > :39:39.Leanne Wood went one step further when briefing
:39:40. > :39:41.journalists ahead of the party conference in Llangollen, suggesting
:39:42. > :39:44.they were actively considering a formal coalition.
:39:45. > :39:46.She has since moved back from that but it still
:39:47. > :39:49.meant there was plenty to talk about when she met up
:39:50. > :39:52.with our political editor Nick Servini.
:39:53. > :39:56.Leanne Wood, welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:39:57. > :39:59.Just to kick off with what was a huge chunk of your speech,
:40:00. > :40:01.probably nearly half of it, on Plaid Cymru's
:40:02. > :40:06.The central core - remain in the single market.
:40:07. > :40:09.In your view, does that mean we still have the free movement
:40:10. > :40:15.I went to Brussels recently with colleagues
:40:16. > :40:22.and it was made very clear to us from those discussions that freedom
:40:23. > :40:29.of movement, of goods, services and people come as a package.
:40:30. > :40:31.For embership of the currency it's non-negotiable that freedom of
:40:32. > :40:35.That said, one of the options we are looking at
:40:36. > :40:47.They are in the single market, there is an element
:40:48. > :40:50.of freedom of movement of people but there are restrictions on that
:40:51. > :40:52.so for example you have to have a job
:40:53. > :40:57.We would be prepared to consider and look at those kinds of options
:40:58. > :41:03.going on and has been skewed to other areas.
:41:04. > :41:06.In Wales we don't have an immigration problem and in fact,
:41:07. > :41:07.our immigration problem is a migration problem.
:41:08. > :41:12.The perception is there and it was very real in the
:41:13. > :41:19.It is not very credible or responsible
:41:20. > :41:24.to make policy on the back of perception.
:41:25. > :41:27.It is much better, surely, to make policy on the basis
:41:28. > :41:30.We just ignore the referendum result, do we?
:41:31. > :41:33.I mean, it was pretty clear even in Wales that something
:41:34. > :41:39.Wasn't that a pretty logical conclusion from the EU referendum?
:41:40. > :41:42.Well, the ballot paper that I voted on had one question on it and that
:41:43. > :41:44.was asking people whether they wanted to remain
:41:45. > :41:48.There was nothing on it about immigration.
:41:49. > :41:52.There was nothing about the single market.
:41:53. > :41:55.You were out on the campaign trail like I was and there were
:41:56. > :41:57.times when virtually every other person was
:41:58. > :42:05.Lots of people were talking about immigration and I accept it is an
:42:06. > :42:08.issue that people have concerns about but people also have concerns
:42:09. > :42:10.about jobs, industry, our economy and for Plaid Cymru
:42:11. > :42:16.We've got wages that are 10% less here than other parts of the UK.
:42:17. > :42:18.That situation simply cannot continue and we have to put jobs and
:42:19. > :42:34.52% of voters in Wales voted to leave the European Union,
:42:35. > :42:37.knowing full well that would entail leaving the single market.
:42:38. > :42:43.If that was the case where did they say that on the
:42:44. > :42:49.The question on the ballot paper was about the European
:42:50. > :42:52.Union and there are countries out of the European Union and in the single
:42:53. > :42:56.market and I think it is in Wales's best interests to try to pursue
:42:57. > :43:00.I think there were a range of reasons.
:43:01. > :43:02.Some people voted because of immigration, you're right.
:43:03. > :43:04.Other people voted because of austerity.
:43:05. > :43:06.Other people in Rhondda tell me they are sick and tired
:43:07. > :43:08.of politicians not listening to them, turning up
:43:09. > :43:11.and closing their local libraries, swimming pools, of not paying people
:43:12. > :43:16.There are those women suffering because they have
:43:17. > :43:17.got to work much later than they originally
:43:18. > :43:22.People are fed up of not being taken seriously by the political class
:43:23. > :43:24.and they were given the opportunity to have a say about that.
:43:25. > :43:26.Should we take them seriously and listen
:43:27. > :43:32.We can do that if we take people's views on
:43:33. > :43:34.immigration, those with the view you are talking about, which is an
:43:35. > :43:37.anti-immigration position, then what we are potentially doing is
:43:38. > :43:39.jeopardising the 200,000 jobs that are reliant on being a member
:43:40. > :43:44.39% of exports that we sell to the European Union we
:43:45. > :43:47.have to take those things seriously and for Plaid Cymru, working on
:43:48. > :43:50.facts and evidence, not on perception, we are putting jobs
:43:51. > :43:59.at the top of the agenda and not immigration.
:44:00. > :44:02.When you look at the three demands or the three sort of
:44:03. > :44:06.central planks of your Brexit response, looking at the
:44:07. > :44:08.constitution, Wales at the top table negotiating position and remaining
:44:09. > :44:11.in the single market, these, certainly in terms of what we heard
:44:12. > :44:14.so far, two of these three, the top table and the continued membership
:44:15. > :44:22.of the single market, this is a near impossibility, isn't it?
:44:23. > :44:30.Until we sign Article 50, there is a vacuum.
:44:31. > :44:36.The kind of Brexit that we have is up for grabs.
:44:37. > :44:43.You're right, the Prime Minister has made a number of statements.
:44:44. > :44:45.She is certainly favouring a hard Brexit
:44:46. > :44:47.approach but that doesn't mean we capitulate and accept that.
:44:48. > :44:50.When have people in Wales have accepted what the Tories told us?
:44:51. > :44:55.It is just a case of what is realistic.
:44:56. > :44:58.And if we continue to be in the single market,
:44:59. > :45:00.we are still in the EU, really, aren't we?
:45:01. > :45:06.People have voted to leave and we accept that result and
:45:07. > :45:09.we are putting forward a range of options for a soft Brexit to limit
:45:10. > :45:14.the damage to Welsh communities, to industry and jobs.
:45:15. > :45:19.But nothing really substantial would have changed, would it?
:45:20. > :45:24.won't be able to shape the policies of the European Union, we won't have
:45:25. > :45:28.a say in the European Union but we will still be able to trade.
:45:29. > :45:30.But we would have the free movement of goods and services.
:45:31. > :45:35.It will be very difficult to see how some kind of deal would be
:45:36. > :45:38.negotiated where there is full membership of the single market and
:45:39. > :45:40.an end to freedom of movement to people.
:45:41. > :45:42.Some in the Tory party are claiming that can be done.
:45:43. > :45:44.I see that, actually, as something very
:45:45. > :45:51.You spent a lot of time in your speech talking
:45:52. > :45:55.about Brexit but it was quite clear what got the biggest cheer was when
:45:56. > :45:57.you told delegates you were not actively seeking a coalition with
:45:58. > :46:00.That is obviously where the party wants you
:46:01. > :46:04.Is that going to be the case for the next four
:46:05. > :46:08.I have not ruled out that because things change.
:46:09. > :46:10.Politics is changing on an hourly basis.
:46:11. > :46:12.What could change that you would consider?
:46:13. > :46:14.Wales's national future is potentially in jeopardy.
:46:15. > :46:16.We've got Tories in the Assembly now, starting to try
:46:17. > :46:18.to put the debate for the abolition of
:46:19. > :46:25.Things are going to get very difficult and rocky over the next
:46:26. > :46:33.few years but the arrangement we've got now is a good one for us.
:46:34. > :46:35.We are a strong and effective opposition,
:46:36. > :46:37.we are holding the government to account, scrutinising their position
:46:38. > :46:41.on Brexit and at the same time we've agreed the biggest budget deal that
:46:42. > :46:47.any opposition party has agreed since the beginning of devolution.
:46:48. > :46:50.From my perspective we've got the best of both worlds
:46:51. > :46:52.at the moment and so the current arrangement is
:46:53. > :46:55.something we are perfectly happy with.
:46:56. > :46:58.Is there a danger you are neither one thing or the other?
:46:59. > :47:00.Or everything. Or both.
:47:01. > :47:02.Can you really be an effective opposition if
:47:03. > :47:04.you are striking deals with Labour all the time?
:47:05. > :47:09.You saw the way the Tories led the opposition in the
:47:10. > :47:13.Did they win a single concession from the
:47:14. > :47:18.Plaid Cymru has within four months of this Assembly term agreed
:47:19. > :47:20.the biggest budget deal since the beginning of devolution.
:47:21. > :47:39.Tomorrow, First Minister Carwyn Jones will be
:47:40. > :47:42.in Downing Street to discuss Brexit with the Prime Minister Theresa May
:47:43. > :47:44.and his counterparts from Scotland and Northern Ireland.
:47:45. > :47:48.He's here with me now to tell us what he'll be saying.
:47:49. > :47:55.I hope! Good morning and thank you for coming in. Just before we move
:47:56. > :47:59.on to what we will be discussing tomorrow let's look back at the
:48:00. > :48:03.interview with Leanne Wood. She said she wouldn't close the door to
:48:04. > :48:06.coalition discussions over the next four years.
:48:07. > :48:09.What do you make of that? The one thing I picked up is she said she
:48:10. > :48:13.was content with the current structures we have in place and so
:48:14. > :48:18.are we. The door isn't closed. It is not for
:48:19. > :48:22.me to say what Plaid Cymru said at their own conference but we have
:48:23. > :48:25.agreed on a structure we are content with so let's continue in that same
:48:26. > :48:29.vein. I have a feeling I won't get much
:48:30. > :48:33.more from you on that one. Let's move on to the discussions with
:48:34. > :48:37.Theresa May, the leaders of Scotland and Northern Ireland as well with
:48:38. > :48:41.how to move forward on Brexit. We have heard Theresa May saying today
:48:42. > :48:44.there needs to be a more grown-up relationship between the UK
:48:45. > :48:47.Government and devolved administrations.
:48:48. > :48:52.Is that something you would welcome? She is reiterating what was agreed
:48:53. > :48:58.two years ago. At the heart of the problem is this- those who voted
:48:59. > :49:03.Brexit didn't think they would win and they did win and now they don't
:49:04. > :49:08.know what to do. We do need direction and we need to agree a way
:49:09. > :49:13.forward as the UK and its different administrations agree on that. If
:49:14. > :49:17.Whitehall can't get agreement with the devolved administrations, what
:49:18. > :49:22.hope does it have to get agreement with 27 member states? We need
:49:23. > :49:24.proper discussions to get a common UK viewpoint.
:49:25. > :49:28.You said these are discussions you had two years ago but since Brexit
:49:29. > :49:32.does there need to be a further change in the relationship between
:49:33. > :49:34.the relationships of the UK countries?
:49:35. > :49:38.It needs to be more of a partnership rather than being told what is
:49:39. > :49:45.happening. We are told we are fully part of the discussions, we know
:49:46. > :49:50.what is going on and I don't think the UK Government would want to be
:49:51. > :49:53.involved in a negotiation in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales
:49:54. > :49:58.are saying they don't agree. It is more sensible to try to get an
:49:59. > :50:01.agreement in the UK first in terms of our way forward.
:50:02. > :50:04.Do you think it is a partnership at the moment or being told what is
:50:05. > :50:09.happening? I don't think they realise the scale
:50:10. > :50:12.of the challenge, if I'm honest. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
:50:13. > :50:17.need to look to get some kind of agreement and to work closely with
:50:18. > :50:21.us. And they talk about power is coming from Brussels to London. A
:50:22. > :50:24.lot of them bypass London and came straight to Wales.
:50:25. > :50:29.You will know there is a different view on that point within the UK
:50:30. > :50:33.Government which probably won't necessarily bypass London. They will
:50:34. > :50:37.have a say on that. How contentious is that? It is clear
:50:38. > :50:41.in the devolution settlement what happens. It is something we have to
:50:42. > :50:45.deal with. From our perspective people said to us you will not get
:50:46. > :50:48.any concessions on funding. It is out of the window. But we did. We
:50:49. > :50:52.are not where we should be but we had a commitment to some guarantee
:50:53. > :50:58.of the funding for the next few years. After Twenty20 there is not a
:50:59. > :51:02.farthing to pay farmers. Above all else we need to understand what the
:51:03. > :51:07.red lines are for the UK Government rather than saying it will all be
:51:08. > :51:12.fine. It only works for a short period of time.
:51:13. > :51:17.Is there a danger when you meet in England, from Theresa May's point of
:51:18. > :51:22.view, she will say that Scotland voted to remain and Nicola Sturgeon
:51:23. > :51:25.is threatening another referendum on independence. They have a concern
:51:26. > :51:29.about a hard border with the Republic and the Good Friday
:51:30. > :51:34.Agreement in Ireland. In Wales we are talking about farming. It is not
:51:35. > :51:36.going to be top of the agenda. Wales is nowhere near the top of the
:51:37. > :51:40.agenda. What is important is the agenda.
:51:41. > :51:45.People voted to leave the EU but they didn't vote to lose jobs. We
:51:46. > :51:49.have been successful in getting an and implement rate that is lower
:51:50. > :51:51.than England, Scotland and Northern Ireland because we have sold
:51:52. > :51:57.ourselves on the basis that Wales is a gateway to the European market. If
:51:58. > :52:02.there is a barrier to that for me it is absolutely crucial we have full
:52:03. > :52:06.and unfettered access to that single European market. It is important.
:52:07. > :52:11.Jobs are important and that is what I will be emphasising.
:52:12. > :52:13.You say access. Does that need to be membership or can there be some
:52:14. > :52:20.middle way? It doesn't matter. You can access in
:52:21. > :52:25.various ways. Membership involves being part of the EU, that's the way
:52:26. > :52:30.I interpret it, but there are other ways to get access to the single
:52:31. > :52:35.market. What is crucial is that our big employers like Ford and Tata
:52:36. > :52:38.steel don't find there is a barrier in place when they are trying to
:52:39. > :52:43.sell to the European market which is eight times bigger than the UK. What
:52:44. > :52:48.I wouldn't accept either is if we have an agreement where the City of
:52:49. > :52:51.London had preferential treatment and manufacturing didn't.
:52:52. > :52:56.It has to be a level playing field. About access to the single market.
:52:57. > :53:00.Does that need to be from a company's point of view completely
:53:01. > :53:04.tariff free, nothing that would inhibit their entry into the
:53:05. > :53:08.European market, that there will be a cost to that. You know that France
:53:09. > :53:20.and Germany and other leaders will be saying, if you want that it comes
:53:21. > :53:22.at a cost. Either will mean freedom of movement or payments from the UK
:53:23. > :53:25.Government. What should it be? The red line for
:53:26. > :53:30.me is I want to make sure that Welsh manufacturers can continue to sell
:53:31. > :53:35.in the single market. One of the problems is that people when they
:53:36. > :53:40.voted were told, don't worry, the EU will fall over itself to have an
:53:41. > :53:44.agreement with us. None of this is true. That means we have to be very
:53:45. > :53:48.careful in making sure there is a right deal and the work goes in now
:53:49. > :53:51.to make sure we have the deals for Wales.
:53:52. > :53:56.When you mention a red line, what do you mean by that? My reading is that
:53:57. > :53:58.unless you get your own weight you will respond to that in a certain
:53:59. > :54:04.way. What do you mean when you say
:54:05. > :54:07.redline? I would not under any circumstances support any deal that
:54:08. > :54:13.sold the reintroduction of tariffs. Would you have a choice? If the UK
:54:14. > :54:18.Government wants to go into other governments in the UK critical of
:54:19. > :54:23.any deal they might reach, I don't think that is wise. It is much
:54:24. > :54:28.better to gain the support. It is what negotiation is. You going and I
:54:29. > :54:32.do get as much support as possible to strengthen your hand. My aim is
:54:33. > :54:35.to strengthen the hand of the government and not destructed but
:54:36. > :54:41.the UK Government has to make sure it works with us to make sure it is
:54:42. > :54:43.in the strong possible position when negotiations start.
:54:44. > :54:48.And where do you stand on emigration? It seems to me that you
:54:49. > :54:52.seem to have hardened your stance. You are talking about a moratorium.
:54:53. > :54:56.A few weeks ago you were talking about perhaps only people with jobs
:54:57. > :55:01.being able to come into the UK. What is clear to me is people were
:55:02. > :55:04.concerned about the current system of freedom of movement. I heard it
:55:05. > :55:09.on the doorstep. All we really know if people voted to leave the EU. I
:55:10. > :55:14.do together on the doorstep and it would be unwise to ignore that
:55:15. > :55:18.sentiment so we have to look at ways to see how this could operate in the
:55:19. > :55:22.future, what kind of otherwise we would need to get access to the
:55:23. > :55:29.single market. There are no easy answers at the moment.
:55:30. > :55:32.What would be your best offer as an answer to the situation?
:55:33. > :55:36.What we need is no barriers are in place for doctors or nurses coming
:55:37. > :55:41.here, for professionals running companies.
:55:42. > :55:46.So a sort of work Visa system? There are models elsewhere where if you
:55:47. > :55:50.have a job you can come to work. That is one possibility. We have to
:55:51. > :55:55.look at all possibilities and come down in favour of the one we think
:55:56. > :55:58.is best for Wales and Britain. Before we finish, you were at the
:55:59. > :56:06.services to remember what happened 50 years ago on Friday in Aberfan.
:56:07. > :56:10.It doesn't seem to be losing its poignancy.
:56:11. > :56:15.No, if the answer to that. I went there when I was 18 for the first
:56:16. > :56:19.time. I stood in the cemetery and looked down on the pit. As a
:56:20. > :56:22.teenager I felt it was said. When you have children of your own it
:56:23. > :56:28.really magnifies the sense of loss that you feel other people had. For
:56:29. > :56:35.me it was hugely emotional on Friday, usually in emotional in the
:56:36. > :56:39.Assembly on Wednesday as well to deliver the words I said, which came
:56:40. > :56:44.from heart. It doesn't feel like 50 years for the of Aberfan and we
:56:45. > :56:49.shouldn't forget. Half a century as past so do you
:56:50. > :56:53.think there will come a time when the name isn't so closely synonymous
:56:54. > :56:58.with what happened there? We know that over time the effect of
:56:59. > :57:01.an event will diminish but the memory shouldn't. In 50 years they
:57:02. > :57:08.will be no Woody alive who remember that. It was before I was born but
:57:09. > :57:13.my mother talked about it. My mother was pregnant with me at the time. My
:57:14. > :57:19.mother-in-law was also pregnant with my wife and they were both teachers.
:57:20. > :57:22.The memory itself must never allowed to be lost.
:57:23. > :57:25.Just from the aftermath, it does seem to be perhaps another political
:57:26. > :57:30.time in terms of how politicians reacted to it as well.
:57:31. > :57:34.How can you react in any other way other than to try to give comfort to
:57:35. > :57:41.the people and show support and sympathy? Would not going to help. I
:57:42. > :57:45.know that. I think it helps people to know there are so many others
:57:46. > :57:51.thinking of them on that day. It doesn't matter if it is 50, 49 or 51
:57:52. > :57:55.years. The pain is the same. For the people of Aberfan I hope it gives
:57:56. > :57:59.them some support that they were people thinking of them on Friday
:58:00. > :58:03.and that minute silence, that we may be proud of that.
:58:04. > :58:05.A nation's heart can never be totally broken -
:58:06. > :58:08.that's what Gwyn Thomas wrote as a eulogy for those who died
:58:09. > :58:10.in Aberfan but it can be wounded, he said.
:58:11. > :58:13.Over the past week or so we've all been remembering the awful
:58:14. > :58:17.Wales came to a standstill on Friday as a minute's silence marked
:58:18. > :58:20.During the week politicians united to pay their tributes,
:58:21. > :58:29.These are the children of today's Aberfan.
:58:30. > :58:32.The pupils of Ynys Owen Primary and Ysgol Rhyd Y Grug.
:58:33. > :58:34.Alongside them, the Ynys Owen male voice choir formed almost half
:58:35. > :58:37.a century ago to raise money for charity and provide
:58:38. > :58:43.The past, present and future of the community together
:58:44. > :58:46.in the Assembly for a memorial service to mark the
:58:47. > :58:50.50th anniversary of the Aberfan disaster.
:58:51. > :58:52.Politicians in Cardiff Bay and Westminster have held
:58:53. > :58:54.commemorations to remember the 144 people who died, most of them
:58:55. > :58:57.children, when a mountain of coal waste collapsed and enveloped a
:58:58. > :59:07.school in the village on the 21st of October 1966.
:59:08. > :59:09.It is appropriate that the Welsh Senedd remembers the
:59:10. > :59:12.tragic loss of life in Aberfan and that we show the people
:59:13. > :59:18.of Aberfan that Wales has not forgotten the
:59:19. > :59:24.tragedy of Aberfan and we as politicians need to remember
:59:25. > :59:26.the tragedy and build on the hope that triumphs over
:59:27. > :59:34.tragedy as the people of Aberfan have demonstrated.
:59:35. > :59:36.First Minister Carwyn Jones met the next generation
:59:37. > :59:39.memorial service before he joined politicians in the chamber to
:59:40. > :59:45.Today we stand in solidarity with the people
:59:46. > :59:52.We offer them support and I hope some comfort
:59:53. > :00:00.as they deal with the memories of that day
:00:01. > :00:02.when winter darkness came early to the community of Aberfan.
:00:03. > :00:07.In the House of Commons the knock-about of Prime
:00:08. > :00:09.Minister's Questions was punctured by tributes to those who died and
:00:10. > :00:12.those who survived the horror of Aberfan.
:00:13. > :00:16.I know that the whole House will wish
:00:17. > :00:19.to join me in remembering all those who lost their lives and were
:00:20. > :00:22.affected by the Aberfan disaster 50 years ago this week.
:00:23. > :00:24.It claimed the lives of 144 people, the vast
:00:25. > :00:31.It caused devastation to the local community.
:00:32. > :00:34.It is right that we pause and reflect on this important
:00:35. > :00:36.anniversary and recognise the solidarity and resilience of the
:00:37. > :00:43.people of Aberfan to overcome this powerful tragedy.
:00:44. > :00:46.I now ask the National Assembly and the public gallery to rise...
:00:47. > :00:48.And after the words from the politicians, the
:00:49. > :00:51.A minute of reflection 50 years exactly since so
:00:52. > :01:06.AMs, being led by the National Assembly's presiding
:01:07. > :01:08.officer Elin Jones, as they paid their tribute to those
:01:09. > :01:13.who died in the Aberfan disaster in 1966.
:01:14. > :01:27.go ahead with this policy, I know. And now back to Andrew.
:01:28. > :01:29.So, Brexit, airports, Calais and the chances
:01:30. > :01:51.With what Rory Stewart was saying there, it is clear that Islamic
:01:52. > :01:57.State is losing territory in Iraq now, and could come under pressure
:01:58. > :02:06.in Syria as well. It used to control a whole swathe of the coast of
:02:07. > :02:10.Libya, and is now down to a small area of Sirte in Libya. But
:02:11. > :02:14.curiously, it could make them more dangerous here if they are being
:02:15. > :02:19.driven out of the Maghreb and the Levant, they could be more dangerous
:02:20. > :02:25.here. Discuss. That was a very interesting admission from a
:02:26. > :02:31.government minister, of all people, and a well-informed one. Chasing
:02:32. > :02:35.Isis around the Middle East is about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda
:02:36. > :02:44.around Afghanistan and Pakistan. You smash them somewhere, and they pop
:02:45. > :02:51.up somewhere else. He is right to warn that these guys will go
:02:52. > :03:00.somewhere. And it may well be, in Sirte, for example, across the magic
:03:01. > :03:05.oration -- across the Mediterranean into Italy. A lot of the foreign
:03:06. > :03:13.fighters in Mosul have already gone, we heard, which raises the question,
:03:14. > :03:16.to where? I think it is quite right for government ministers to warn
:03:17. > :03:21.that it might have repercussions here. We have been involved in this,
:03:22. > :03:26.with full public consent, as far as we can tell. If it doesn't happen,
:03:27. > :03:32.if there are horrors and outrages here and in the rest of Europe,
:03:33. > :03:36.that's fine. If it does happen, at least the government is prepared. We
:03:37. > :03:47.knew surprised about how categorical Nia Griffith was? She was
:03:48. > :03:53.categorical about support for the Allied action in Iraq, and
:03:54. > :03:59.categorical about Russia. So much so that perhaps written should take
:04:00. > :04:03.tougher sanctions on its own, even if it can't get the Europeans to
:04:04. > :04:08.fall in line. I found that interesting. I was surprised by
:04:09. > :04:12.that. Tom may be right that Rory said more than perhaps he was
:04:13. > :04:17.intending, but I thought that some of what she said sounded politically
:04:18. > :04:22.imprudent in the current context of the Labour Party. I'm not sure she
:04:23. > :04:27.cleared those lines with the Labour office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy
:04:28. > :04:32.are in the same place about it. I'm not sure there is that much
:04:33. > :04:35.leadership. People at the moment get out there and say what they think
:04:36. > :04:42.it's right for the party. She sounded dead right to me. Whether it
:04:43. > :04:49.is ill-advised or not, people should answer... I want to move on, because
:04:50. > :04:52.Brexit never goes away. This week we saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow
:04:53. > :04:56.Foreign Secretary. He is going to be the chair of the select committee in
:04:57. > :05:00.the Commons which will monitor the Department for Brexit. All sorts of
:05:01. > :05:01.people will be coming to give testimony and so one. Let's hear
:05:02. > :05:05.what he told Andrew Marr. I think it will be very important
:05:06. > :05:08.for the government to indicate that if it is not possible within the two
:05:09. > :05:11.years provided for by Article 50 to negotiate both our withdrawal
:05:12. > :05:14.agreement and a new trading relationship, market access,
:05:15. > :05:15.including for services, 80% of our economy, million jobs,
:05:16. > :05:17.in financial services, that it should tell the House
:05:18. > :05:20.of Commons that it will seek a transitional arrangement
:05:21. > :05:32.with the European Union. If the deal is not done at the end
:05:33. > :05:38.of the two-year Article 50 process, would the government go for an
:05:39. > :05:43.interim agreement, or would it fall back on WTO, World Trade
:05:44. > :05:46.Organisation, Rawls? My understanding is the article 15
:05:47. > :05:50.negotiation doesn't specifically include what Britain's future
:05:51. > :05:55.trading relationship with the EU would be. It is perfectly possible
:05:56. > :06:00.that Article 50 could be triggered, and after two years we don't have a
:06:01. > :06:13.trade deal, but the trade deal negotiations are ongoing when we are
:06:14. > :06:15.outside the EU. But the trade deal negotiations are the most important
:06:16. > :06:17.thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover it, what is it about? Absolutely
:06:18. > :06:23.essential. The trade deal with Canada has taken nine years, and now
:06:24. > :06:32.it looks like it is fading, because of the Walloons. Just one small part
:06:33. > :06:37.of the country. If you cannot do a free-trade deal with Canada, a
:06:38. > :06:41.progressive, social Democratic Canada, who can the EU do a trade
:06:42. > :06:46.deal with? You would think it would be easy with us, because we have all
:06:47. > :06:50.of the level playing field agreements in place. You would hope
:06:51. > :06:55.it would be easier, but it may not be, because in the end, it will
:06:56. > :07:05.hinge on the single market and if we are in or out. If we are in, can we
:07:06. > :07:08.have a small break on immigration? It looks like not. What is
:07:09. > :07:11.interesting about the opinion polls is, in the last two opinion polls
:07:12. > :07:16.there was a significant change in public opinion, where people are now
:07:17. > :07:20.saying they think that actually trade, the economy, the single
:07:21. > :07:24.market is more important than immigration. If it is really true,
:07:25. > :07:29.as the observer is reporting today, that banks are on the move, and in a
:07:30. > :07:34.year's time there could be a significant collapse in the income
:07:35. > :07:46.we get from finance, the income that the Treasury gets, then public
:07:47. > :07:48.opinion might change. They may say, we don't want more immigration, but
:07:49. > :07:54.this isn't a price worth paying. Everything tends to be seen through
:07:55. > :08:00.the Brexit lens at the moment. Things are not always as they seem.
:08:01. > :08:04.The Canadian- EU free trade agreement was about increasing free
:08:05. > :08:08.trade between the EU and Canada, and therefore subject to the
:08:09. > :08:13.ratification of all members. Any deal we do will not give us the same
:08:14. > :08:18.access we have at the moment. The question is, how much will it be
:08:19. > :08:23.diminished? It may not be subject to the same ratification process.
:08:24. > :08:29.Absolutely right. Another unbelievably technical point that we
:08:30. > :08:34.still don't know is, if we can get this free-trade deal with the EU at
:08:35. > :08:42.the same time as our Brexit talks and deal, the divorce deal as well
:08:43. > :08:51.as the remarriage deal, then one gets signed off by QM V. The trade
:08:52. > :08:56.deal may still need all 28, all 27, including the people from the
:08:57. > :09:01.Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority of parliament. This is exactly why
:09:02. > :09:05.Theresa May would like the transitional deal to push this one
:09:06. > :09:09.deeper. I was surprised to hear Hilary Benn pushing this line this
:09:10. > :09:14.morning. The remainers have been all over the place. They wanted a vote
:09:15. > :09:19.after Article 50 had been triggered about the deal. Then they wanted a
:09:20. > :09:26.vote before Article 50. Now they are talking about a vote before article
:09:27. > :09:31.Article 50 is triggered about a trade deal. They need to make up
:09:32. > :09:35.their minds about what it is they are pushing for, and what their best
:09:36. > :09:41.hope of obstructing Brexit is, and stick with it. Something else we see
:09:42. > :09:45.through the Brexit lens, which isn't always helpful, is Calais. The
:09:46. > :09:51.French bulldozers will move in tomorrow. We will see some pretty
:09:52. > :09:55.disturbing scenes on the TV. We will see some horrible scenes. The
:09:56. > :10:00.government has handled this very badly. Having passed an amendment in
:10:01. > :10:04.April saying we would take something like 3000 children, a lot of those
:10:05. > :10:08.children have disappeared. Save the Children, one of the charities
:10:09. > :10:17.there, are very worried that people traffickers have been in there, and
:10:18. > :10:19.a lot of those children have vanished. We haven't sent social
:10:20. > :10:26.workers in. No preparations have been made what ever. You are raising
:10:27. > :10:31.an interesting point. We don't know how many we are meant to be taking.
:10:32. > :10:38.The huge argument has arisen over what the age is of some of the ones
:10:39. > :10:43.coming in. Is this another problem for the Home Office? To some extent.
:10:44. > :10:47.Didn't Theresa May 's too well to survive six weeks of this? Amber
:10:48. > :10:52.Rudd has been there for three months. It is clear that the Home
:10:53. > :10:59.Office didn't prepare for this. They didn't prepare for the age
:11:00. > :11:04.verification or when it will go. It needs to be an perfect. We don't
:11:05. > :11:10.know how many we will take, because the Home Office will not say. I want
:11:11. > :11:14.to talk about airport capacity, but I won't, because I don't think we
:11:15. > :11:18.have anything to say about it until the statement on Tuesday from
:11:19. > :11:22.Transport Minister Grayling. When you look at the polls and see the
:11:23. > :11:27.decision on airport runway expansion being kicked into the long grass for
:11:28. > :11:31.a year, are we heading for an early election next year or not? I think
:11:32. > :11:37.Theresa May will do everything she can to avoid it. If there is an
:11:38. > :11:43.election before 2020, it is bound to be about Europe, and that is a much
:11:44. > :11:47.harder case for her to win than just a question of who is the best Prime
:11:48. > :11:52.Minister. She will have a tough time, because it will be a general
:11:53. > :11:58.election about in or out of the single market. Half of her party
:11:59. > :12:02.will peel away. How do she conduct a general election when the likes of
:12:03. > :12:07.Anna Soubry will not stand on the same platform? It will be difficult.
:12:08. > :12:15.But she may reach such a stalemate that she just calls one. No general
:12:16. > :12:19.election next year because it will split the Tory party. There will be
:12:20. > :12:23.won in 2019 when she cannot get Brexit through the House of Commons.
:12:24. > :12:28.You really can have too much of a good thing. I just want to show a
:12:29. > :12:34.little clip of the former Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly
:12:35. > :12:40.last night. Let's just watch this. There he is.
:12:41. > :12:48.Where is the hand? That is the worrying bit! We will no longer be
:12:49. > :12:56.saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair of hands! Can we agree on that?
:12:57. > :13:04.Remarkable that he was once the man most feared by David Cameron! Labour
:13:05. > :13:12.leader 2021. He has hit popular culture in the way that many few
:13:13. > :13:16.politicians do. Charm, gusto, bravery, no worries about being
:13:17. > :13:22.embarrassed. All the things that you don't like about being a politician.
:13:23. > :13:25.We have run out of time. You can get it on social media.
:13:26. > :13:27.Jo Coburn will be back with the Daily Politics tomorrow
:13:28. > :13:31.And I'll be back here next Sunday at the same time.
:13:32. > :13:35.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.