30/10/2016

:00:38. > :00:41.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:42. > :00:43.Theresa May says she wants to help people who are

:00:44. > :00:46."just about managing" - so should she reverse

:00:47. > :00:49.George Osborne's cuts to benefits that are supposed to help people

:00:50. > :00:56.Prominent London Imam Shakeel Begg is an extremist speaker,

:00:57. > :00:59.says the High Court, after claims made on this programme.

:01:00. > :01:04.So why is Mr Begg still being allowed to advise the Police?

:01:05. > :01:09.Hillary Clinton fights back over the FBI's renewed investigation

:01:10. > :01:12.into her use of a private email server - is this the boost

:01:13. > :01:16.Donald Trump needed to reignite his chances of winning the White House?

:01:17. > :01:22.The Minister answers criticism of a lack of action.

:01:23. > :01:24.And the only Welsh member of Parliament's new Brexit

:01:25. > :01:27.And the only Welsh member Now it is just a question of

:01:28. > :01:33.building that runway with the political problems that lie ahead.

:01:34. > :01:36.And haunting the studio on this Halloween weekend,

:01:37. > :01:38.the most terrifying political panel in the business -

:01:39. > :01:41.Tim 'Ghost' Shipman, 'Eerie' Isabel Oakeshott and

:01:42. > :01:49.First this morning, two new models of car to be built,

:01:50. > :01:53.securing 7,000 jobs at the car plant in Sunderland and a further 28,000

:01:54. > :01:59.The news from Nissan on Thursday was seized on by Leave campaigners

:02:00. > :02:02.as evidence that the British economy is in rude health

:02:03. > :02:05.This morning, the Business Secretary, Greg Clark, was asked

:02:06. > :02:09.what assurances were given to the Japanese firm's bosses

:02:10. > :02:15.Well, it's in no-one's the interest for there to be tariff

:02:16. > :02:21.barriers to the continent and vice versa.

:02:22. > :02:24.So, what I said is that our objective would be to ensure that we

:02:25. > :02:29.have continued access to the markets in Europe and vice versa, without

:02:30. > :02:33.tariffs and without bureaucratic impediments.

:02:34. > :02:37.That is how we will approach those negotiations.

:02:38. > :02:39.We're joined now from Newcastle by the Shadow Business

:02:40. > :02:53.Welcome to the programme. Labour has been a bit sceptical about this

:02:54. > :02:57.Nissan decision. Can we begin by making it clear just what a great

:02:58. > :03:02.achievement this is, above all for the workers of Sunderland who have

:03:03. > :03:06.some of the highest productivity in the world, have never been on strike

:03:07. > :03:13.for 30 years, and produce cars of incredible quality. This is their

:03:14. > :03:16.victory, isn't it? Andrew, you are absolutely right. The Nissan plant

:03:17. > :03:22.in Sunderland is among the most productive in the world. The workers

:03:23. > :03:28.of Nissan are amongst the most productive as well. And it's really

:03:29. > :03:30.a victory for them and for the trade unions and the business

:03:31. > :03:33.organisations, and everybody who campaigned to make sure that the

:03:34. > :03:41.government couldn't ignore their future. It's our future. I'm the MP

:03:42. > :03:44.for Newcastle. It makes a huge difference to the region. We are a

:03:45. > :03:47.region that still likes to make things that work. It is a huge part

:03:48. > :03:54.of our advanced manufacturing sector. So it's really something we

:03:55. > :04:00.welcome as well as the job security. I'm glad we have got that on the

:04:01. > :04:03.record from the Labour shadow business secretary. But your Shadow

:04:04. > :04:07.Chancellor, John McDonnell, claims the government is ignoring

:04:08. > :04:12.manufacturers and cares only about a small banking elite. In what way is

:04:13. > :04:16.safeguarding 30,000 industrial jobs in the North safeguarding a

:04:17. > :04:21.financial elite? As I said, we're really pleased that the campaigning

:04:22. > :04:25.by trade unions and the workforce, and business organisations, meant

:04:26. > :04:29.the government felt they couldn't ignore Nissan workers. Let's also be

:04:30. > :04:32.clear that we want that kind of job security for all of those working in

:04:33. > :04:37.manufacturing and in other sectors as well. And sweetheart deals for

:04:38. > :04:43.one company, no matter how important they are, that does not an

:04:44. > :04:50.industrial strategy make. Why'd you say it is a sweetheart deal? Greg

:04:51. > :04:53.Clark told the BBC this morning that what was assured to Nissan is an

:04:54. > :04:58.assurance he gives to the whole industrial sector? I was really

:04:59. > :05:03.pleased to see Greg Clark felt he had to say something, even though

:05:04. > :05:08.it's sad that we having our industrial strategy, you like, or

:05:09. > :05:13.our approach to Brexit delivered piecemeal to the media rather than

:05:14. > :05:17.to the British people and Nissan, actually. But he want published the

:05:18. > :05:21.letter. He said he has told us what is in the letter and that

:05:22. > :05:26.reassurances given on training, on science and on supporting the supply

:05:27. > :05:32.chain for the automated sector. You must be in favour all -- of all of

:05:33. > :05:37.that? We are in favour of an industrial strategy. Greg Clark,

:05:38. > :05:43.unlike Sajid Javid, cannot say industrial strategy. I'm still

:05:44. > :05:48.puzzling to find out what it is you disagree with. Let me put the

:05:49. > :05:54.question. You said the assurances he has given to Nissan are available to

:05:55. > :06:00.the car manufacturing sector in general and indeed to industry in

:06:01. > :06:04.general. What is your problem with that? Two things. Let him publish

:06:05. > :06:10.the letter so we can see that, let him have the transparency he's

:06:11. > :06:14.pretending to offer. But also, we need an industrial strategy that

:06:15. > :06:22.values -- that is values based and joined. He talked about electric

:06:23. > :06:27.cars and supporting green cars. That was in regard to Nissan. At the same

:06:28. > :06:32.time the government has slashed support for other areas of green

:06:33. > :06:38.technology. So what is it? That is not to do with the Nissan deal.

:06:39. > :06:41.Labour implied at some stage there was some financial inducement, some

:06:42. > :06:47.secret bribes, that doesn't seem to be the case. You are not claiming

:06:48. > :06:50.that any more -- any more. Then you claimed it was a sweetheart deal for

:06:51. > :06:59.one company. That turns out not to be the case. What criticism are you

:07:00. > :07:04.left with on this Nissan deal? I would be really surprised if all

:07:05. > :07:07.that Nissan got was the reassurances that Greg Clark is shared with us.

:07:08. > :07:13.He didn't answer the question of what happens if we can't get

:07:14. > :07:16.continued tariff free access to the single market, if we are not within

:07:17. > :07:22.the single market or the Customs Union. Do you really think a

:07:23. > :07:26.negotiator like Nissan, who are very good at negotiating, they would have

:07:27. > :07:31.excepted making this significant investment without some further

:07:32. > :07:35.reassurances? Do you think there is some kind of financial bride and if

:07:36. > :07:39.so what is the evidence? I would like to see the letter published and

:07:40. > :07:44.I would also like to understand what would happen... There are 27

:07:45. > :07:50.countries which need to agree with the deal we have from Brexit. What

:07:51. > :07:55.will Nissan, how will Nissan remain competitive? How will the automotive

:07:56. > :08:00.industry remain competitive? Greg Clark says he reassured them on

:08:01. > :08:09.that. But how will that be so if we do not get access? We haven't heard

:08:10. > :08:13.anything about that. He talks about reassurances given to Nissan. We

:08:14. > :08:16.need to make -- to know where we're going to make sure Brexit is in the

:08:17. > :08:20.interest of all workers, not only those who work for a Nissan and not

:08:21. > :08:26.only those who can get the attention of Greg Clark. He assured Nissan

:08:27. > :08:30.that Britain would remain a competitive place to do business.

:08:31. > :08:34.That was the main assurance he gave them. He would help with skills and

:08:35. > :08:39.infrastructure and all the rest. Since you are -- intend to repeal

:08:40. > :08:43.the trade union laws that have made strikes in Britain largely a thing

:08:44. > :08:46.of the past, and you plan to raise corporation tax, you couldn't give

:08:47. > :08:52.Nissan the same assurance, could you? We could absolutely give Nissan

:08:53. > :08:56.the assurance that we will be, our vision of the future of the UK, is

:08:57. > :09:08.based on having a strong manufacturing sector. Repealing

:09:09. > :09:12.trade union laws? As we have seen at Nissan, the industrial sector is

:09:13. > :09:18.dependent on having highly trained, well skilled workers. -- highly

:09:19. > :09:24.skilled, well-trained. You don't have that by getting -- having an

:09:25. > :09:28.aggressive policy and trade union laws or by slashing corporation tax

:09:29. > :09:31.and not supporting manufacturing investment. Remember, the last

:09:32. > :09:37.government took away the Manufacturing allowances which

:09:38. > :09:40.supported Manufacturing and slashed corporation tax. That is their

:09:41. > :09:46.solution. It is a low tax, low skill economy they want.

:09:47. > :09:50.Thank you. Sorry I had to rush you. I'm grateful for you joining us.

:09:51. > :09:59.I'm still struggling to see what is left of Labour's criticism? Yeah,

:10:00. > :10:03.except for this. This was a valid point she just made. What we know

:10:04. > :10:08.for sure is that Greg Clark could say to Nissan, my aim is to get

:10:09. > :10:12.tariff free deal. There is no way he could guarantee that. None of us

:10:13. > :10:20.know that. I don't think that was enough. I think clearly there was a

:10:21. > :10:24.more detailed package involving training and other things. He has

:10:25. > :10:28.acknowledged this, albeit we do not know the precise mechanism. What I

:10:29. > :10:31.think is interesting about this is if you reverse what happened this

:10:32. > :10:34.week, at a time when the government says Britain is open for business

:10:35. > :10:40.and it is going to have an industrial strategy, so far it is a

:10:41. > :10:44.bit vaguely defined. Nissan hadn't made this commitment. Imagine what

:10:45. > :10:47.would have happened? It is an impossible scenario. The government

:10:48. > :10:53.seems to me was obliged to make sure this didn't happen. Let's not forget

:10:54. > :10:57.Nissan has invested hundreds of millions in the north-east. It has

:10:58. > :11:01.been a huge success story. When I spoke to workers from Nissan, they

:11:02. > :11:06.were so proud because they went to Japan to teach the Japanese had to

:11:07. > :11:09.be more productive. The idea that Nissan was just going to walk away

:11:10. > :11:14.from this given its track record, its importance, wasn't really

:11:15. > :11:19.credible. The government had some bargaining chips. Absolutely, of

:11:20. > :11:23.course they weren't going to walk away. The majority of people in the

:11:24. > :11:28.area in which Nissan is braced -- based, voted for Brexit. Nissan

:11:29. > :11:31.knows it is in a powerful position because it is an emotive sector.

:11:32. > :11:35.Clearly the government didn't want to have some big showdown. I

:11:36. > :11:41.honestly don't think this is a smoking gun. The Labour Shadow

:11:42. > :11:45.minister really struggled to articulate what exactly she thinks

:11:46. > :11:49.the government is hiding. I think the reassurances were given were

:11:50. > :11:52.pretty anodyne, really. They were anodyne and general. And what Greg

:11:53. > :11:57.Clark was setting out was an objective and he made the right

:11:58. > :12:00.noises, and Nissan exercised its right to sabre rattle. It does have

:12:01. > :12:05.a history of doing that. The one thing that would now be clear given

:12:06. > :12:08.Greg Clark's performance this morning on the BBC, is that if we

:12:09. > :12:14.were to discover some kind of financial incentive directly linked

:12:15. > :12:19.to this investment, not more for skills or infrastructure, that is

:12:20. > :12:21.fine, but some direct financial investment, compensation for

:12:22. > :12:25.tariffs, which would be illegal under World Trade Organisation

:12:26. > :12:29.rules, what you might call a financial bride, the sect -- the

:12:30. > :12:34.business Secretary's position would be untenable? He would be in a very

:12:35. > :12:38.difficult position indeed. Just released the letter. There is

:12:39. > :12:41.nothing to hide. Put it out there. The most revealing thing is that

:12:42. > :12:46.people are getting wildly excited about the fact Greg Clark announced

:12:47. > :12:51.Britain's negotiating position would be that we would like tariff free

:12:52. > :12:54.trade with Europe. This is regarded as an insight into what this comment

:12:55. > :12:57.is doing and it says a great deal about how little we have been told

:12:58. > :13:03.in Parliament and the media about what they are up. Do you think it is

:13:04. > :13:10.exciting we are going for tariff free trade? We're easily excited

:13:11. > :13:14.these days. We don't know. This is where these things are at such a

:13:15. > :13:17.tentative phase. We don't know how the rest of the European Union is

:13:18. > :13:26.going to respond to Britain's negotiating hand. We know Britain

:13:27. > :13:31.once the best of everything, please. It is a starting point. But that is

:13:32. > :13:33.not how it is going to end up. We are getting wider than that. We have

:13:34. > :13:35.will have to see. Now, Universal Credit,

:13:36. > :13:37.a single payment made to welfare claimants that would roll together

:13:38. > :13:39.a plethora of benefits whilst encouraging people into work

:13:40. > :13:42.by making work pay. But have cuts to the flagship

:13:43. > :13:44.welfare scheme reduced work incentives and hit the incomes

:13:45. > :13:50.of the least well-off? Well, some of the government's

:13:51. > :13:52.own MPs think so, and, as Mark Lobel reports,

:13:53. > :13:58.want the cuts reversed. Theresa May says she wants

:13:59. > :14:01.a country that works for everyone, that's on the side

:14:02. > :14:05.of ordinary, working people. It means never writing off people

:14:06. > :14:09.who can work and consigning them to a life on benefits,

:14:10. > :14:12.but giving them the chance to go out and earn a living and to enjoy

:14:13. > :14:14.the dignity that comes But now some in her party

:14:15. > :14:21.are worried that the low earners will be hit by changes

:14:22. > :14:25.to Universal Credit benefit system originally set up to encourage

:14:26. > :14:27.more people into work. We also need to focus tax credits

:14:28. > :14:31.and Universal Credit Concern centred on the Government's

:14:32. > :14:37.decision in the July 2015 budget to find ?3 billion worth of savings

:14:38. > :14:46.from the Universal Credit bill. Conservative MP Heidi Allen

:14:47. > :14:49.is working on a campaign to get MPs in her party to urge

:14:50. > :14:57.the Prime Minister to think again. I want her to understand for herself

:14:58. > :15:00.what the outcomes might be if we press ahead

:15:01. > :15:02.with the Universal Credit, Do you think Theresa May, right now,

:15:03. > :15:06.understands what you understand? To be fair, unless you really

:15:07. > :15:09.get into the detail, and I have through my work

:15:10. > :15:11.on the Work and Pensions Select Committee, I don't

:15:12. > :15:13.think anybody does. Independent economic analysts

:15:14. > :15:19.at the IFS agree with Heidi Alan that cuts to Universal Credit weaken

:15:20. > :15:23.incentives to work. One of the key parts

:15:24. > :15:26.of the Universal Credit system That is how much you can

:15:27. > :15:29.earn before your credit As the Government has

:15:30. > :15:32.sought to save money, both under the Coalition and now

:15:33. > :15:34.they Conservative Government, both under the Coalition and now

:15:35. > :15:37.the Conservative Government, that work allowance has been cut,

:15:38. > :15:39.time and time again. The biggest cuts happened

:15:40. > :15:41.in the summer budget of 2015. That basically reduces the amount

:15:42. > :15:44.of earnings you get to keep It weakens the incentive people have

:15:45. > :15:48.to move into work. What do changes to the Universal

:15:49. > :15:50.Credit system mean? The Resolution Foundation think-tank

:15:51. > :15:53.has crunched the numbers. If you compare what would have

:15:54. > :15:57.happened before the July 2015 summer budget to what will happen by 2020,

:15:58. > :16:00.even if you take into account gains in the National Living Wage

:16:01. > :16:02.and income tax cuts, recipients will be hit

:16:03. > :16:07.by annual deductions. Couples and parents would receive,

:16:08. > :16:11.on average, ?1000 less. A dual-earning couple with two

:16:12. > :16:13.children under four, with one partner working full-time

:16:14. > :16:16.on ?10.50 an hour and the other working part-time on the minimum

:16:17. > :16:18.wage for around 20 hours a week, they would

:16:19. > :16:26.receive ?1800 less. Hit most by the changes

:16:27. > :16:28.would be a single parent with a child under four,

:16:29. > :16:30.working full-time I think, if I'm honest,

:16:31. > :16:44.it is unrealistic, given the economic climate,

:16:45. > :16:47.to expect everything to be reversed. What I would like to see

:16:48. > :16:53.is an increase in the work allowances to those people

:16:54. > :16:55.who will be hardest hit. That is single parents and second

:16:56. > :16:58.earners hoping to return to work, because they are the people we need

:16:59. > :17:01.to absolutely make The Sunday Politics understands that

:17:02. > :17:05.about 15 to 20 Conservative MPs are pushing for changes ahead

:17:06. > :17:09.of the Autumn Statement. A former cabinet minister told us

:17:10. > :17:12.that they believed further impact analysis should be done to find out

:17:13. > :17:15.if any mitigation measures Former Work and Pensions Secretary

:17:16. > :17:21.Iain Duncan Smith, an architect of the system, now says

:17:22. > :17:26.the cuts should be reversed. But his former department has told

:17:27. > :17:31.us that it has no plans to revisit the work allowance changes announced

:17:32. > :17:35.in the budget last year. What I would say to Heidi Allen

:17:36. > :17:39.and IDS, they got it right the first time and they should stick

:17:40. > :17:42.to the vote they cast last year, because these reforms actually

:17:43. > :17:44.do make sense. What interests me is the fact

:17:45. > :17:47.we are trying to move people off welfare into work,

:17:48. > :17:49.we are raising the wages people earn by massively increasing

:17:50. > :17:51.the minimum wage and this People are coming off

:17:52. > :17:55.welfare and into work. Campaigners are pushing for savings

:17:56. > :17:58.to come from other areas to relieve The other thing we have to start

:17:59. > :18:04.looking at is the triple Financially it has been a great

:18:05. > :18:08.policy, and it was absolutely right that we lifted pensioners

:18:09. > :18:09.who were significantly behind, for many years, in terms of income

:18:10. > :18:12.levels, but they have I think it is time for us to look

:18:13. > :18:17.at that policy again, because is costing us an awful

:18:18. > :18:20.lot of money. With just over three weeks to wait

:18:21. > :18:23.until the Conservative leadership's new economic plan is unveiled

:18:24. > :18:26.in the Autumn Statement, its top team is under pressure

:18:27. > :18:29.from within its own ranks to use it And I'm joined now by former Work

:18:30. > :18:45.and Pensions Secretary, Welcome back to the programme.

:18:46. > :18:50.Theresa May said she is on the side of the just managing, the working

:18:51. > :18:54.poor. But they are about to be hit from all sides. Their modest living

:18:55. > :18:57.standards are going to be squeezed as inflation overtakes pay rises,

:18:58. > :19:01.they will be further squeezed because top-up benefits in work are

:19:02. > :19:06.frozen. Incentives to work are going to be reduced by the cuts in

:19:07. > :19:11.universal benefits. So much for being on the side of those just

:19:12. > :19:18.managing? Theresa was right to focus on this group. The definition has to

:19:19. > :19:22.be the bottom half, in economic terms, of the social structure. It

:19:23. > :19:25.doesn't look good for them? This is the point I am making, it is an

:19:26. > :19:29.opportunity to put some of this right. One of the reasons I resigned

:19:30. > :19:32.in March is because I felt the direction of travel we had been

:19:33. > :19:36.going in had been to take far too much money out of that group of

:19:37. > :19:39.people when there are other areas which, if you need to make some of

:19:40. > :19:43.those savings, you can. The key bit is that the group needs to be helped

:19:44. > :19:47.through into work and encouraged to stay in work. There was a report

:19:48. > :19:52.done with the IFS, when we were there, at Universal Credit. It said

:19:53. > :19:57.Universal Credit rolled out, as it should have been before the cuts,

:19:58. > :20:00.people would be much more likely to stay in work longer and earn more

:20:01. > :20:05.money. It is a net positive, but that is now called into question.

:20:06. > :20:09.Let's unpick some of the detail, but first, do you accept the words of

:20:10. > :20:13.David Willets? It says on the basis of the things I read out to you that

:20:14. > :20:21.the just managing face a significant and painful cut in real terms if we

:20:22. > :20:28.continue on the way we are going. I do, in essence. That is the reason

:20:29. > :20:33.why I resigned. I felt Heidi raised that issue as well, that we got the

:20:34. > :20:37.balance wrong. It is right that pensioners get to a certain point,

:20:38. > :20:42.when they are on a level par, doing the right thing over five years.

:20:43. > :20:50.Staying with that process has cost us ?18 billion extra this year, in

:20:51. > :20:56.total. It will go on costing another 5 billion. Then there is the issue

:20:57. > :20:58.of tax allowances. I want to remind you and viewers what David Cameron

:20:59. > :21:05.told the Conservative conference in 2009. If you are a single mother

:21:06. > :21:10.with two children, earning ?150 a week, the withdrawal of your

:21:11. > :21:16.benefits and the additional taxes that you pay me on that for every

:21:17. > :21:24.extra you earn, you keep just 4p. What kind of incentive is that? 30

:21:25. > :21:30.years ago, this party won and election fighting against 98% tax

:21:31. > :21:37.rates for the Rex richest. I want us today to show even more anger about

:21:38. > :21:42.96% tax rates for the very poorest in our country. Real anger, and

:21:43. > :21:49.effective rate of over 90%. Universal Credit reduces that. Some

:21:50. > :21:54.will still face, as they lose benefits and pay tax, a marginal

:21:55. > :21:57.rate of over 75%. That is still too high? Yes, it is the collision

:21:58. > :22:02.between those going into work at the moment they start paying tax. A

:22:03. > :22:08.racial Universal Credit is set at 65%. You can call that the base

:22:09. > :22:12.marginal tax rate. 1.2 million will face 75%? That is the point about

:22:13. > :22:16.why the allowances are so important. The point about the allowances which

:22:17. > :22:20.viewers might not fully understand is that it was set, as part of

:22:21. > :22:24.Universal Credit, to allow you to get certain people, with certain

:22:25. > :22:30.difficulties, as they cross into work, to retain more benefit before

:22:31. > :22:34.it is tapered away as they go up in hours. A lone parent, who might have

:22:35. > :22:38.various issues, you want her to have a bigger incentive than a single

:22:39. > :22:41.person that does not have the same commitments. It is structured so

:22:42. > :22:44.that somebody who has difficulty going to work, they all have

:22:45. > :22:48.slightly different rates. What happened is that last year a

:22:49. > :22:52.decision was taken to reduce tax credits, and, on the back of that,

:22:53. > :22:58.to reduce allowances. I believe, given everything that happened now,

:22:59. > :23:01.we need to restore that to the point where it helps those people crossing

:23:02. > :23:03.over. You say a decision was taken, it was a decision by the former

:23:04. > :23:10.Chancellor George Osborne in the summer budget. Other decisions were

:23:11. > :23:13.taken in successive Budgets to raise the Universal Credit budget, which

:23:14. > :23:16.resulted in the disincentive being higher than many people wanted. Do

:23:17. > :23:21.you accept that has been the consequence of his decisions? I was

:23:22. > :23:24.in the Government, we take collective responsibility. I argued

:23:25. > :23:28.this was not the right way to go, but when you are in you have to stay

:23:29. > :23:31.with it if you lose that argument. There was another attempt before the

:23:32. > :23:36.spending review last year to increase the taper, so the marginal

:23:37. > :23:41.rate would have gone up. I managed to stop that. I'm Sibley saying,

:23:42. > :23:45.what we made as a decision last year, given the circumstances and

:23:46. > :23:49.given that the net effect of all of that, I think it is time for the

:23:50. > :23:54.Government to ask the question, if we are in this to help that group of

:23:55. > :23:57.people, Universal Credit is singularly the most powerful tool.

:23:58. > :24:03.One of the Argentine aid in the paper published on Thursday, we are

:24:04. > :24:08.set going on doing two more races of the tax threshold, taking more

:24:09. > :24:12.people out of tax. That has a diminishing effect on the bottom

:24:13. > :24:17.section. Only 25p in that tax rate will help any of those. Most of it

:24:18. > :24:22.goes to middle income? You and I will benefit more from that. With

:24:23. > :24:26.Universal Credit, every pound you put into that will go to the bottom

:24:27. > :24:30.five tenths. That is why I designed it like that. He pressed the button

:24:31. > :24:34.and immediately start to changed circumstances. Should the cuts in

:24:35. > :24:37.Universal Credit that Mr Osborne introduced, against your argument,

:24:38. > :24:43.should they be reversed? I believe so. I believe you can do it even if

:24:44. > :24:46.there is concern about spending. I don't believe you need to go through

:24:47. > :24:55.with the continuing raise the tax threshold. Cost is dependent on

:24:56. > :25:00.inflation, but give or take. It is in the Tory manifesto? Has more than

:25:01. > :25:03.doubled. What is in the manifesto, and Lasse Prime Minister made this

:25:04. > :25:08.clear in conference, we want to improve the life chances of people.

:25:09. > :25:13.Today's announcement on the Green paper is what I wrote over the last

:25:14. > :25:16.two and a half years. Big changes necessary to how we deal with

:25:17. > :25:20.sickness benefit. That can now be done because of Universal Credit,

:25:21. > :25:24.because people can go back to work and it tapers away their benefits.

:25:25. > :25:28.It is the most powerful tool to sort our people that live in poverty,

:25:29. > :25:32.Universal Credit. We need to make sure it lands positively. If Mr

:25:33. > :25:37.Osborne's cuts were reversed, what you and some of your backbench Tory

:25:38. > :25:42.colleagues want to do, how would that improve the incentives of the

:25:43. > :25:47.working poor, as they try to get on in life? They have to pay more tax,

:25:48. > :25:53.they lose some benefits. How would it improve it? Would many still face

:25:54. > :25:58.a 75% rate? The key question is, first and foremost, as people move

:25:59. > :26:01.through income to the point where they are getting taxed, that group

:26:02. > :26:05.will be enormously benefited by the re-emergence of these allowances at

:26:06. > :26:11.the right level. That is what the IFS have said, that is what the

:26:12. > :26:15.Resolution Foundation are saying, and the Centre For Social Justice is

:26:16. > :26:18.saying. You have to get that group, because they are most likely to be

:26:19. > :26:23.drifting into poverty and less incomes are right. Would it help

:26:24. > :26:29.those who face a 75% margin? We don't face that. Exactly right.

:26:30. > :26:37.People much poorer than us do. I would love to get the marginal rate

:26:38. > :26:41.down to testify percent, and lower,. -- down to 65%. It is a balance of

:26:42. > :26:47.how you spend the money. I would prefer to do that rather than

:26:48. > :26:53.necessarily go ahead with threshold razors. I think the coronation of

:26:54. > :26:57.the marginal reduction of 65%, getting it down to 60%, plus more

:26:58. > :27:01.allowances, will allow Universal Credit to get to the group that is

:27:02. > :27:05.going to be, and the report written by the IFS and ourselves, it shows

:27:06. > :27:09.it is going to be the most dynamic and direct ability of a Government

:27:10. > :27:16.to be able to influence the way that people improve their incomes in the

:27:17. > :27:22.bottom five deciles. Would you take on extra work if you knew you were

:27:23. > :27:25.going to lose 75% of it? Even 65%? This has been my argument all along.

:27:26. > :27:30.Universal Credit can help that enormously. One point that goes

:27:31. > :27:34.missing, 70% of the bottom five deciles will be on Universal Credit.

:27:35. > :27:38.Whatever change you make to Universal Credit has a dramatic and

:27:39. > :27:44.immediate effect I am arguing, genuinely, it is time to rethink

:27:45. > :27:47.this. The Prime Minister wants to make this a priority. I am

:27:48. > :27:52.completely with her on this. I think she made a really good start. To

:27:53. > :27:56.deliver this, we need to... You have a lot of work to do to deliver it.

:27:57. > :28:02.Because it is a manifesto commitment, or because they want to

:28:03. > :28:05.do it, stopping increasing the personal allowances are not

:28:06. > :28:08.acceptable, what about bringing to an end, by the end of the

:28:09. > :28:15.parliament, the pension triple lock that pensioners enjoy to improve and

:28:16. > :28:21.put more money to the working poor? What about that? Well, you are

:28:22. > :28:24.absolutely right that there is now the danger, I think, of a mess

:28:25. > :28:28.balance between the generations. Quite rightly at the beginning, when

:28:29. > :28:34.we came in, we have a commitment as a Conservative Party in a manifesto

:28:35. > :28:39.to get pensions back onto earnings. It was moved to a triple lock that

:28:40. > :28:43.guaranteed a minimum. What about ending up now? I understand it is a

:28:44. > :28:46.promise through the Parliament, but after 2020? I am in favour of

:28:47. > :28:50.getting it back to innings and allowing it to rise at reasonable

:28:51. > :28:56.levels. Moving from earnings to the triple lock has cost ?18 billion

:28:57. > :29:00.this year. Here was a high, under pressure, as the Government was

:29:01. > :29:03.scratching around to pay more money out of working age areas, when the

:29:04. > :29:07.budget was almost out of control on the pension side. I'm in favour of

:29:08. > :29:12.helping pensioners, but now they are up to a reasonable level, at a

:29:13. > :29:15.steady rate, that can be afforded by Government, which takes the pressure

:29:16. > :29:18.off, working age people have to pay for that. In years to come, time to

:29:19. > :29:32.end the triple lock and use the savings to help these

:29:33. > :29:34.people we have been talking about? As part of a load of packages, yes.

:29:35. > :29:35.It would also help with the intergenerational fairness argument.

:29:36. > :29:38.Thank you for being with us. Now, a prominent London Imam

:29:39. > :29:40.called Shakeel Begg - who is Chief Imam the Lewisham

:29:41. > :29:43.Islamic Centre - is an extremist. That was the verdict of the judge

:29:44. > :29:47.in a libel action that Mr Begg took against the BBC, after we described

:29:48. > :29:49.him as an Islamic extremist Mr Begg had complained about a short

:29:50. > :29:54.segment in an interview in November 2013 with Farooq Murad,

:29:55. > :29:56.the then head of the Muslim Council of Britain, an organisation

:29:57. > :29:58.which claims to represent British In that interview, we described

:29:59. > :30:04.Mr Begg as an extremist speaker who had hailed jihad

:30:05. > :30:07.is the greatest of deeds. From his base of the Lewisham

:30:08. > :30:11.Islamic Centre, Mr Begg has been involved in a number of community

:30:12. > :30:14.organisations, including the Police Independent

:30:15. > :30:17.Advisory Group in Lewisham, Lewisham Council's Advisory Council

:30:18. > :30:22.on Religious Education and as a volunteer chaplain

:30:23. > :30:25.at Lewisham Hospital. But in his judgment,

:30:26. > :30:30.Mr Justice Haddon-Cave called Mr Begg a Jekyll and Hyde character

:30:31. > :30:33.- a trusted figure in his local community, but when talking

:30:34. > :30:37.to predominantly Muslim audiences he shed the cloak of respectability

:30:38. > :30:41.and revealed the horns of extremism. The judge cited one speech made

:30:42. > :30:44.by Mr Begg at a rally outside Belmarsh Prisonm-

:30:45. > :30:47.the high security prison that houses terrorists -

:30:48. > :30:51.as particularly sinister. The judge said the imam

:30:52. > :30:53.was expressing admiration and praise Following Friday's judgment,

:30:54. > :30:59.the hospital trust have told us that Mr Begg's status as a voluntary

:31:00. > :31:03.chaplain has been terminated. We have been told by

:31:04. > :31:07.Lewisham Council he is no longer on their Religious

:31:08. > :31:09.Education Committee. The Metropolitan Police

:31:10. > :31:11.have confirmed that Mr Begg remains a member

:31:12. > :31:15.of their Independent Advisory Group in Lewisham, as well as

:31:16. > :31:28.the borough's faith group. I am joined by Haras Rafiq, chief

:31:29. > :31:35.executive of the Quilliam Foundation. Welcome to the

:31:36. > :31:39.programme. I have here in my hand a statement from the trustees of the

:31:40. > :31:43.Lewisham Islamic Centre. They reject the judge's ruling as fanciful and

:31:44. > :31:48.say they are unequivocal and unwavering in their support of

:31:49. > :31:54.Shakeel Begg as their head imam. What do you make of that? To be

:31:55. > :31:59.honest, it doesn't surprise me. At the end of the day he is only the

:32:00. > :32:03.imam of that mosque because he belongs to the same theological

:32:04. > :32:06.fundamentalist views that the mosque would portray. If they were to say

:32:07. > :32:12.he was an extremist, they would be saying in fact that they have

:32:13. > :32:15.allowed extremist preaching and extremist theology within their

:32:16. > :32:23.walls. I think this is a very important decision and a very

:32:24. > :32:27.important judgment by the judge. First of all, these people like to

:32:28. > :32:32.operate in a linear, under a veneer of respectability. When that veneer

:32:33. > :32:36.is taken away, there are a number of things that can happen. First of

:32:37. > :32:43.all, the BBC did very well to stand by their guns and say, we're not

:32:44. > :32:47.going to be intimidated by somebody who is threatening to taking -- to

:32:48. > :32:52.take us to court for potential libel. Many other media companies

:32:53. > :32:57.have done that in the past and people have capitulated. Also, this

:32:58. > :33:02.has exposed him. Legally now, here's some deal can be classified as an

:33:03. > :33:06.extremist preacher, somebody who promotes religious violence. I think

:33:07. > :33:10.the mosque really needs to take a step back and say, how we part of

:33:11. > :33:14.the problem that we are facing within society? Or are we going to

:33:15. > :33:22.be part of the solution? It really concerns me. The High Court judge

:33:23. > :33:28.says that Mr Begg's speeches were consistent with an extremist

:33:29. > :33:38.Salafist is the most worldview. What is Salafist is and how widespread is

:33:39. > :33:44.it in UK mosques? -- mosque. It comes from the Middle East. It is

:33:45. > :33:51.from Saudi Arabia. The enemy for them was the old colonial Ottoman

:33:52. > :33:56.Empire. There is the quiet Salafist to get some with their lives, lives

:33:57. > :33:59.outside society. There is a revolutionary who tries to convert

:34:00. > :34:06.other people to their worldview. And then there is the Salafist jihad

:34:07. > :34:10.ease. People like Islamic State etc. We have seen of increased in recent

:34:11. > :34:15.decades because of money that has, growing from the Middle East. When

:34:16. > :34:19.that is mixed with a political ideology, it becomes potent. Do we

:34:20. > :34:25.have a political -- particular problem in Britain with this in our

:34:26. > :34:28.mosques? Absolutely. Without the theology that says hate the other,

:34:29. > :34:33.hate other Muslims, that excommunicate other people, that

:34:34. > :34:37.says it is OK to fight and is good to fight when you have got an enemy,

:34:38. > :34:42.we wouldn't really have a jihadi problem. Really that is something we

:34:43. > :34:48.have to tackle. The number of mosques and institutions supporting

:34:49. > :34:53.Salafist and Islam is has been on the increase. Do we have a problem

:34:54. > :34:57.with what the judge called Jekyll and Hyde characters who hide their

:34:58. > :35:04.extremism except when they are speaking to specific groups?

:35:05. > :35:09.Absolutely. One of the things we have focused on in the past, a

:35:10. > :35:13.number of hate preachers now in prison, people like Anjem Choudary,

:35:14. > :35:16.and everybody focused on them. But there is a range of people operating

:35:17. > :35:21.under that level. People who will show one face to the community

:35:22. > :35:26.because they actually need that for a respectability. They need that for

:35:27. > :35:29.a legitimacy. They need that to operate. When they are behind closed

:35:30. > :35:33.doors and talking to their constitution, that is when you will

:35:34. > :35:39.see the real face of what these people believe. It is an increasing

:35:40. > :35:46.phenomenon. We are seeing it more. And we're going to carry on seeing

:35:47. > :35:51.it. Not just has the Lewisham mosque stuck by him, but given the clarity

:35:52. > :35:53.of the judge's ruling, are you surprised that the Metropolitan

:35:54. > :35:58.police would wish to continue with Mr Begg as an adviser? I'm

:35:59. > :36:01.absolutely shocked that that decision. What Uzzy going to do?

:36:02. > :36:06.Advise them on how to deal with extremist preachers and promote

:36:07. > :36:11.religiously motivated violence? I don't know what he's going to advise

:36:12. > :36:16.them on. Because we now have a judge that has ruled against him and

:36:17. > :36:20.actually classified him as an extremist and somebody who promotes

:36:21. > :36:23.religious violence, we actually have a possibility for the CPS to

:36:24. > :36:28.actually prosecute him. There is a law that has been in place since

:36:29. > :36:33.2005 called religiously motivated violence. If he has been classified

:36:34. > :36:38.as somebody who promotes this, there is a potential for the CPS to

:36:39. > :36:40.prosecute. I want to called into question other organisations,

:36:41. > :36:47.interfaith organisations, other Muslims groups, who say they want to

:36:48. > :36:51.fight extremism, I call on them to say, this guy is an extremist

:36:52. > :37:00.preacher, we should cut our ties from him. This was a very high risk

:37:01. > :37:07.strategy by the BBC. The exposure could have been over ?1.5 million of

:37:08. > :37:11.licence payers money. Will this make it more difficult for Jekyll and

:37:12. > :37:16.Hyde characters to behave as Mr Begg has behaved? Absolutely. It will do.

:37:17. > :37:22.One of the things they will now have to make sure is that they are a lot

:37:23. > :37:27.more careful. Careful with what they say to their own constituency. It

:37:28. > :37:33.won't solve the theological problem. But it will actually stop other

:37:34. > :37:36.people from operating in this manner and allow other media organisations

:37:37. > :37:38.to have the confidence to expose them when they do. Haras Rafiq,

:37:39. > :37:40.thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35,

:37:41. > :37:42.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:37:43. > :37:45.in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:37:46. > :38:05.the Week Ahead. Hello and welcome to

:38:06. > :38:07.the Sunday Politics Wales. In a few minutes, the former head

:38:08. > :38:10.of a teaching union tells us what needs to be done

:38:11. > :38:11.about education here, and the only Welsh member

:38:12. > :38:14.of the Commons Brexit Committee tells us how he's going to use his

:38:15. > :38:16.new role. But first, do we need

:38:17. > :38:20.legislation to make sure people in Wales who have autism

:38:21. > :38:23.get the help they need? The opposition parties think so,

:38:24. > :38:25.but the Minister responsible says First, James Williams has been

:38:26. > :38:31.talking to one family who live Half-term fun for these children

:38:32. > :38:34.at the special needs action Among them, four-year-old Mason

:38:35. > :38:41.and six-year-old Logan, two brothers from Swansea whose

:38:42. > :38:46.autism means they don't speak. Logan was two years

:38:47. > :38:50.old when he was diagnosed. I knew from a very, very young age

:38:51. > :38:53.that he was autistic, And the same with Mason,

:38:54. > :38:56.it was just very obvious. You literally get a diagnosis

:38:57. > :39:02.and you get handed a book, 'this is autism,' and sent

:39:03. > :39:04.on your way with nothing, You see all the differences

:39:05. > :39:14.in your child and then you see other people's children and think,

:39:15. > :39:17.my kid should be doing Mason and Logan are two

:39:18. > :39:21.of an estimated 34,000 children and adults in Wales who have autism,

:39:22. > :39:24.a lifelong developmental disability that affects how people perceive

:39:25. > :39:29.the world and interact with others. It is a condition that affects

:39:30. > :39:32.a wider community of around 136,000, including families and carers,

:39:33. > :39:40.all with very different experiences. In Wales at the moment it's

:39:41. > :39:42.currently a postcode lottery, It depends where you live

:39:43. > :39:46.as to what services you can access So whereas in Swansea, for most,

:39:47. > :39:57.the diagnosis process is very good, in places like Carmarthenshire,

:39:58. > :39:59.Bridgend, they're just seriously lacking or there are delays,

:40:00. > :40:02.years and years of waiting. And it's because of that patchy

:40:03. > :40:06.provision Louise and other campaigners came here to the Senedd

:40:07. > :40:11.a few weeks ago to hear a debate calling on the Welsh Government

:40:12. > :40:13.to introduce a law that would specifically guarantee

:40:14. > :40:17.the rights of autistic people. If this vote is not unanimous,

:40:18. > :40:20.then there are members in this chamber who should

:40:21. > :40:25.hold their heads in shame. We will be here in six months' time,

:40:26. > :40:30.in 12 months' time, and in 18 months' time to make sure

:40:31. > :40:36.that this eventually happens. The introduction of an autism bill

:40:37. > :40:39.was included in every party's manifesto for May's Assembly

:40:40. > :40:43.election, apart from Labour, whose AMs, along with

:40:44. > :40:46.Liberal Democrat Kirsty Williams, who's now a member of

:40:47. > :40:48.the Welsh Government, voted against it

:40:49. > :40:51.in the Senedd debate. At the end of 2014 we had a meeting

:40:52. > :40:54.of the cross-party autism group in the Assembly with representatives

:40:55. > :40:59.of people with autism, autism communities and

:41:00. > :41:01.National Autistic Society branches and groups,

:41:02. > :41:02.which is member-led, from across Wales, and every one

:41:03. > :41:07.of them got up and explained how hopeful they had been

:41:08. > :41:11.when the strategy was launched, why it hadn't worked for them,

:41:12. > :41:13.and why they were now The strategy he is referring

:41:14. > :41:19.to was launched by the Welsh Government back in 2008,

:41:20. > :41:23.the first of its kind in the UK. Since then, an Autism Act has been

:41:24. > :41:28.introduced in both England and Northern Ireland,

:41:29. > :41:30.and campaigners say it's time Ultimately, we've had the strategy

:41:31. > :41:34.since 2008, people are still not getting the right services,

:41:35. > :41:40.they're not getting the right And remember, when the strategy

:41:41. > :41:50.was published in 2008, the National Assembly

:41:51. > :41:52.for Wales couldn't legislate. It now can, it's now got

:41:53. > :41:56.those legislative levers. Some in Labour argue that

:41:57. > :41:59.if you introduce an act for autism then why not introduce an act

:42:00. > :42:02.for other conditions as well? The difference is that autism

:42:03. > :42:05.is a condition in its own right, so if you look at the way social

:42:06. > :42:08.services are set up, you have a learning disability team

:42:09. > :42:11.and you have a mental health team, and autism is neither of those,

:42:12. > :42:14.so what tends to happen is that autistic people fall down the gap,

:42:15. > :42:17.and it's about giving autism a statutory identity so that

:42:18. > :42:22.that doesn't happen. Ultimately, whether it's

:42:23. > :42:24.a strategy or an act, it's about ensuring that Mason,

:42:25. > :42:28.Logan and others with autism get When I spoke to the Minister,

:42:29. > :42:38.Rebecca Evans, I began by asking her why she didn't

:42:39. > :42:41.want to have an Autism Act. I think the most important thing

:42:42. > :42:44.to remember at the moment is actually we are keeping an open

:42:45. > :42:48.mind as to whether there is a need for a specific piece of legislation

:42:49. > :42:51.for autism in the future. But at the moment it's actually

:42:52. > :42:54.a really exciting time in terms of the services and support

:42:55. > :42:56.that we offer people with autism in Wales because we have the Social

:42:57. > :42:59.Services And Well-being Act, just six months old,

:43:00. > :43:02.and that's intended to transform the way we deliver services

:43:03. > :43:05.and support for people who have care and support needs,

:43:06. > :43:07.whatever their condition might be. But the problem we've

:43:08. > :43:09.heard with that is it looks at the health side,

:43:10. > :43:12.the social services side, but it's not really a joined-up

:43:13. > :43:14.piece of legislation, it doesn't look at the education

:43:15. > :43:17.needs of people with social services I guess those gaps are where

:43:18. > :43:24.the problems will lie, I suppose? We intend to close those gaps

:43:25. > :43:27.with our new national integrated autism service,

:43:28. > :43:30.and that brings together health, social care, but also education

:43:31. > :43:34.and support to find employment, for example, and it will take

:43:35. > :43:37.a holistic look at the needs But then, a service doesn't put any

:43:38. > :43:48.concrete guarantees for people If it was an Act, then it would be

:43:49. > :43:52.statutory, councils would have Surely that's a stronger way

:43:53. > :43:57.of going about this? We've taken a look at the proposed

:43:58. > :44:00.autism bill and also the Autism Act which is in place over

:44:01. > :44:02.the border in England, and there's nothing in either

:44:03. > :44:05.the bill or the Act across the border which actually

:44:06. > :44:07.we're not either delivering now or don't have powers to deliver,

:44:08. > :44:10.so in that sense we prefer to get on with the action of delivering

:44:11. > :44:13.for people with autism rather than creating more legislation

:44:14. > :44:15.when actually we're keen But the people using these services

:44:16. > :44:21.are saying they have to wait seven years in some examples

:44:22. > :44:23.just for a diagnosis We're hearing of some councils that

:44:24. > :44:27.don't even know how many people have Those are the kinds

:44:28. > :44:31.of things essential, needed to provide services,

:44:32. > :44:33.which simply aren't there, which an Act would be able

:44:34. > :44:37.to force them to provide. We're creating a new diagnostic

:44:38. > :44:42.system for children with autism in Wales, and by March 2017 children

:44:43. > :44:47.shouldn't be waiting more than 26 weeks for an assessment,

:44:48. > :44:50.and that's backed up by ?2 million But they are, they are waiting,

:44:51. > :44:54.people will be falling Why not just have a piece

:44:55. > :45:17.of legislation which will be muscular in achieving the objectives

:45:18. > :45:42.of providing services The integrated autism service places

:45:43. > :45:43.a need on a local authority to assess the number of people with

:45:44. > :45:47.autism in that area. I think it's also really

:45:48. > :45:49.important to remember as well that we are constantly monitoring

:45:50. > :45:51.implementation of both the Act and our national

:45:52. > :45:53.integrated autism services, in particular with the integrated

:45:54. > :45:56.autism service we are involving people with autism themselves

:45:57. > :45:58.in that piece of work. That work will look at whether there

:45:59. > :46:01.are gaps that need to be addressed by a new bespoke piece

:46:02. > :46:03.of legislation as well, So what will that

:46:04. > :46:07.bespoke legislation be? You're talking about filling

:46:08. > :46:09.the gaps, almost anticipating that there will be problems rather

:46:10. > :46:12.than going straight to the answer, I think what we have in place

:46:13. > :46:16.is actually really competitive in terms of the Act,

:46:17. > :46:23.the national integrated autism service, the new work we are doing

:46:24. > :46:26.on additional learning needs in schools and a new learning

:46:27. > :46:29.with autism programme as well, which has early years intervention,

:46:30. > :46:31.extra support for parents coming on board as well, so I do feel

:46:32. > :46:34.we have a comprehensive package. However, we are keeping that

:46:35. > :46:36.open mind to explore whether people with autism tell us

:46:37. > :46:39.that there are gaps in services and we will obviously work

:46:40. > :46:42.with them to close it. But the people who work

:46:43. > :46:44.with the people who have autism, the National Autism Society Cymru,

:46:45. > :46:47.say the Act is needed, They are the ones talking

:46:48. > :46:50.to the people day in, day out that need the services,

:46:51. > :46:53.highlighting the problems. We work closely with

:46:54. > :46:56.the National Autistic Society and a number of other charities

:46:57. > :46:59.representing people with autism and we also listen to people

:47:00. > :47:02.affected by autism as well and their families, their carers,

:47:03. > :47:04.professionals working We take on board those ideas

:47:05. > :47:18.and particularly with our refreshed action plan, that is a result

:47:19. > :47:21.of listening to people with autism. We had 76 responses to our

:47:22. > :47:23.consultation talking about things like need

:47:24. > :47:25.for improved diagnosis times, need for improvement in education,

:47:26. > :47:28.and we are dealing with those things in our refreshed autism plan,

:47:29. > :47:30.that is a result of listening In terms of having an Autism Act

:47:31. > :47:35.or not, it seems to be you are saying the door is open,

:47:36. > :47:38.you want to see how the current legislation may or may not work

:47:39. > :47:41.and if it doesn't work then you might have an Act,

:47:42. > :47:43.is that a fair portrayal Absolutely, the door is very much

:47:44. > :47:48.open and we have everything However, as I say, the Act

:47:49. > :47:54.and the integrated autism service are both major things in terms

:47:55. > :47:57.of delivering for people with autism and they are only six months old,

:47:58. > :48:08.so we need to give them the chance in six months, 12 months, 18 months'

:48:09. > :48:09.time, how confident are you that they will have led to those

:48:10. > :48:10.improvements? I am confident that the improvements

:48:11. > :48:13.will be put in place because we've developed this very much in terms

:48:14. > :48:16.of listening to people with autism and what they need,

:48:17. > :48:20.spotting the problems that are there and working to deal

:48:21. > :48:22.with those problems, so I'm confident that

:48:23. > :48:25.what we have in place now will lead Rebecca Evans speaking to me a few

:48:26. > :48:30.moments ago. Wales gained a new voice

:48:31. > :48:32.on Brexit this week. Plaid Cymru's Jonathan Edwards

:48:33. > :48:34.is the only Welsh MP on the Commons Committee

:48:35. > :48:46.which will scrutinise ministers Thank you very much for coming in,

:48:47. > :48:52.bore da. How do you see your role on the committee, are you Plaid Cymru's

:48:53. > :48:57.voice on the committee or do you think you are a cross-party Welsh

:48:58. > :49:02.voice on the committee? Let me first state delighted there will be this

:49:03. > :49:07.committee, one of the first thing we called for in the aftermath of the

:49:08. > :49:11.referendum was the creation of a Brexit ministry, the Secretary of

:49:12. > :49:17.State responsible for the huge undertaking that now faces politics

:49:18. > :49:20.in the United Kingdom and in Wales, the former Prime Minister of course

:49:21. > :49:25.wanted to create a unit in Downing Street to deal with this. The

:49:26. > :49:29.benefit of having a department, a specific department, is that huge

:49:30. > :49:32.civil service resource needed to undertake this task but also if

:49:33. > :49:36.there is a department and Secretary of State it leads to the creation of

:49:37. > :49:39.a select committee to scrutinise their work and we were delighted

:49:40. > :49:43.when that happened, we made the case strongly that every party in

:49:44. > :49:46.parliament should have a role on that Select Committee, and I'm

:49:47. > :49:51.delighted that the Leader of the House of Commons has agreed to that

:49:52. > :49:55.request and ensured that Plaid Cymru now has a representative. My initial

:49:56. > :49:58.role is to represent Plaid Cymru but I'm the only Welsh member on that

:49:59. > :50:04.Select Committee, for me the interests of Wales or Plaid Cymru,

:50:05. > :50:08.you cannot separate them, it is why Plaid Cymru exists. I would expect

:50:09. > :50:12.that from a Plaid Cymru member! My point was, will you be taking

:50:13. > :50:19.soundings and abuse from other MPs from other parties in Wales? Plaid

:50:20. > :50:22.Cymru takes notice of all sorts of information and evidence, that is

:50:23. > :50:27.the point of Select Committee, it is very detailed work, access from all

:50:28. > :50:31.sorts of sources of information and making objective decisions. I'm not

:50:32. > :50:36.going in there with a precondition mind but there seems to me to be

:50:37. > :50:44.four key areas. Firstly the economy, we know the Welsh economy delivers a

:50:45. > :50:49.huge trade surplus, the UK has a trade deficit. Around 200,000 jobs

:50:50. > :50:54.in Wales are reliant on the single market and the economic activity it

:50:55. > :50:59.creates. Second, the various financing and funding streams that

:51:00. > :51:03.come to Wales from the European Union and whatever type of Brexit we

:51:04. > :51:06.have will have an impact on those different funding and financing

:51:07. > :51:13.sources. We had a very good debate in Westminster Hall led by Stephen

:51:14. > :51:18.clinic talking about structural funding -- Stephen Kinnock, talking

:51:19. > :51:21.about structural funding, money far higher education, financing for

:51:22. > :51:27.Welsh infrastructure. But how difficult will it be to scrutinise

:51:28. > :51:31.this Secretary of State David Davis on exiting the EU when we are told

:51:32. > :51:34.there would be a running commentary? How willing for baby to engage with

:51:35. > :51:38.you and therefore what purpose is therefore this committee? The

:51:39. > :51:44.committee can summon whoever they want. But you cannot make them

:51:45. > :51:48.answer the questions. All we have had from the UK Government, the

:51:49. > :51:51.referendum happened four months ago, is Brexit means Brexit, the most

:51:52. > :51:55.vacuous political statement I've ever heard in my political life

:51:56. > :51:59.time, probably for a century. We need more answers than that and it

:52:00. > :52:02.will be difficult for the Prime Minister and her three Brexiteers to

:52:03. > :52:06.appear before a select committee as powerful as the one that has now

:52:07. > :52:08.been set up by the House of Commons and try to reel off those sorts of

:52:09. > :52:22.lines. I think the public will quickly grow

:52:23. > :52:24.tired of that. Equally they might justify it by saying it is a

:52:25. > :52:26.negotiation, why would we want to set out our plan and structure

:52:27. > :52:29.before we have entered those negotiations? I think the public

:52:30. > :52:31.deserve answers in terms of what are the principles... Sorry to

:52:32. > :52:35.interrupt, perhaps the public would rather not have the answers but have

:52:36. > :52:39.a better deal at the end of the process? That means giving your full

:52:40. > :52:44.faith to the executive and I thought the whole point of the referendum

:52:45. > :52:47.was to return sovereignty to the parliament and the assemblies and

:52:48. > :52:53.parliaments across the United Kingdom. It seems that the

:52:54. > :52:57.Government running from the executive undermines one of the key

:52:58. > :53:01.arguments put forward by those who wanted to leave the European Union

:53:02. > :53:04.in the first place. Talking on a Plaid Cymru point, you mentioned the

:53:05. > :53:08.importance of remaining in the single market, you will have heard

:53:09. > :53:12.this accusation before that you are eventually ignoring a large purpose

:53:13. > :53:16.of the referendum, people in Wales and elsewhere saying immigration was

:53:17. > :53:18.a problem and you can't doesn't really get to grips with immigration

:53:19. > :53:23.whilst remaining a full member of the single market? Firstly the

:53:24. > :53:27.referendum question was about leaving the political union and I

:53:28. > :53:31.think the type of Brexit we will see is still up for grabs, and we are

:53:32. > :53:36.fighting for the best economic interests of Wales and that means

:53:37. > :53:39.being part of the single market. I'm sorry to interrupt, but before the

:53:40. > :53:43.referendum we were told by David Cameron, George Osborne, Michael

:53:44. > :53:52.Gove and George Osborne -- Boris Johnson that leaving the EU would

:53:53. > :53:56.mean leaving the single market. That was not on the ballot paper, and in

:53:57. > :54:02.that case the referendum should have been on leaving the economic union.

:54:03. > :54:05.The one thing we have had from the UK Government is the fact that they

:54:06. > :54:10.want to keep the Common travel area between the British state and

:54:11. > :54:13.Republic of Ireland. I welcome that wholeheartedly but the Republic of

:54:14. > :54:16.Ireland is in the European Union so if you are keeping the Common travel

:54:17. > :54:20.area between the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom, it means

:54:21. > :54:24.there is an open land border between the European Union and the British

:54:25. > :54:30.state, so I think that shoot that point. I wish you all the best with

:54:31. > :54:34.your role, hopefully you can come back and update us later on when you

:54:35. > :54:35.know exactly what you will be doing. Thank you for joining us this

:54:36. > :54:42.morning. education has been one of those

:54:43. > :54:47.areas where we've seen big changes. A very different way

:54:48. > :54:49.of teaching our youngest children, the Welsh bacc for older pupils,

:54:50. > :54:52.and, for now at least a very different way

:54:53. > :54:54.of looking at tuition fees. But there have been concerns, a

:54:55. > :54:56.relative decline in standards compared

:54:57. > :54:58.to the UK and internationally. So what's been going

:54:59. > :55:00.on behind the scenes? One man who's had a front row

:55:01. > :55:03.seat is Dr Phil Dixon - a former teaching union head who has

:55:04. > :55:11.just written a book looking He is in the studio with me now.

:55:12. > :55:18.Thank you for coming in. The book is cut into two pieces, before Carlin

:55:19. > :55:29.and after that. Explain to me why you think that? I think you have

:55:30. > :55:32.that period before Carwyn, you had Jane Davidson largely enjoyed for

:55:33. > :55:35.about seven years comment telling us this was the Garden of Eden,

:55:36. > :55:40.everything was wonderful, this was the place to be, Wales was world

:55:41. > :55:44.leading, cutting-edge, then into that comes Leighton Andrews and his

:55:45. > :55:48.own style in 2011, crashing into it all and saying, things aren't as

:55:49. > :55:53.good as you have been told, and there is a very sharp reality check,

:55:54. > :55:58.so you could save a deep is after Davidson and we have lived with that

:55:59. > :56:01.ever since, and abrupt change of policy in the education system. We

:56:02. > :56:06.have been trying to scrutinise ministers in the past, for example

:56:07. > :56:11.the last education minister saying they took their eye off the ball in

:56:12. > :56:14.the mid-2000s. They would not blame former colleagues and name names but

:56:15. > :56:21.do you think when they talk about taking their eye off the ball they

:56:22. > :56:26.are referring to that period? BC? I think so, I think some would go

:56:27. > :56:33.further and say it was an own goal. It is a problem, we were virtually a

:56:34. > :56:37.1-party state in those 16, 17 years. It is a question of trying I think

:56:38. > :56:41.to set the record straight and that is what the book is trying to do,

:56:42. > :56:43.said this is the record of Labour's time in Government, this is what the

:56:44. > :56:47.Department has done, this is what has happened in Welsh education.

:56:48. > :56:53.Some has been a great success but some of it has been a failure and

:56:54. > :57:04.some are fiasco. One of the chapters refers to these international league

:57:05. > :57:07.tests. Is it fair to say when Leighton Andrews came in in 2010,

:57:08. > :57:10.2011, it was those set of results in 2011 causing alarm bells to go off

:57:11. > :57:12.which led to the changes? I think so, but the mother started to

:57:13. > :57:15.realise things were a bit wrong before that and there was a growing

:57:16. > :57:19.consensus we were not in the Garden of Eden as was portrait was in the

:57:20. > :57:23.opening decade of evolution, but the second set of results when Wales was

:57:24. > :57:27.slipping further behind, that is what caused real concern. The third

:57:28. > :57:30.set of results we stepped further behind again and we are awaiting,

:57:31. > :57:36.with hope and a certain amount of fear, the last set which will come

:57:37. > :57:40.out in December. The projection is not very promising on that from the

:57:41. > :57:46.will hit and whispers we are hearing. You mention in the book it

:57:47. > :57:50.is within the education department of the Welsh Government itself,

:57:51. > :57:54.chronically unable to deliver. What is the problem? If you look, we make

:57:55. > :57:59.judgments, rightly so, on individual teachers and we can see some of

:58:00. > :58:02.those have been eased out, some headteachers have gone because they

:58:03. > :58:05.were considered to be underperforming, six local

:58:06. > :58:08.authorities were in special measures, but the ten, 12 years I

:58:09. > :58:13.have been involved in education in Wales at this sort of level, the one

:58:14. > :58:17.bit of system that has not changed is the Department for Education and

:58:18. > :58:22.the test judgment is really a judgment on the regime at the

:58:23. > :58:26.centre. It is not getting out coherent narrative, not delivering,

:58:27. > :58:30.those judgments are being passed on. The Welsh governments put the

:58:31. > :58:33.schools and councils in special measures, put the Welsh education

:58:34. > :58:38.department in special measures, what happens then? I think Kirsty

:58:39. > :58:41.Williams will have to look on the morning that the test results come

:58:42. > :58:45.out and can either decide she wants more of the same, hand wringing and

:58:46. > :58:49.saying, we will stick with what we have got. Or she will hopefully

:58:50. > :58:52.listen to others and say, we need a complete change, and put the

:58:53. > :58:56.department itself in special measures and get some outside help.

:58:57. > :59:00.I don't think there is anything wrong in saying, we cannot solve

:59:01. > :59:03.this alone, we need international, world leading help, but above all

:59:04. > :59:15.not so much on policy development but delivery, that has been the

:59:16. > :59:17.problem over the last 17 years, the delivery of Government policy. They

:59:18. > :59:20.have invited the OECD to have a look at the policies of education but

:59:21. > :59:24.what are you thinking of in terms of the education Department, who helps

:59:25. > :59:28.them? I think you set up a recovery board, you get those who have got a

:59:29. > :59:32.track record in other jurisdictions, United Kingdom, Scotland, Northern

:59:33. > :59:36.Ireland, and I dare say from England, who can turn Government

:59:37. > :59:39.departments around, world leading experts as well, some experts from

:59:40. > :59:42.Wales, but they would not be the dominant ones and they would be

:59:43. > :59:50.focused on delivering, how do you get these policies delivered on the

:59:51. > :59:53.ground and focus these things, just as you would when you put a recovery

:59:54. > :59:56.board into a local authority. I think we have got to be honest. If

:59:57. > :00:00.the mood music, as you say, is right and the test results are bad, we

:00:01. > :00:05.cannot say, let's put more effort into it, we have to look again. So

:00:06. > :00:09.you suggest maybe a lot of the current policies are correct but it

:00:10. > :00:14.is the weakness in the chain coming from the Welsh Government itself?

:00:15. > :00:17.Exactly, if you look at some of the successes, say as the foundation

:00:18. > :00:21.phase, which has been a great success, at certain stages when we

:00:22. > :00:24.set about trying to measure the performance, when we looked at the

:00:25. > :00:29.proper funding needed, the wheels nearly came up. It is only because

:00:30. > :00:32.people like myself and other unions and headteachers screamed loud

:00:33. > :00:36.enough that we managed to avert disaster on that, and I think the

:00:37. > :00:45.culture in the department has to change and has to become one that is

:00:46. > :00:48.listening to those who are trying, at the end of the day, to be

:00:49. > :00:49.critical friends. Thank you for your time and for coming in

:00:50. > :00:58.critical friends. Thank you for your time and for coming in

:00:59. > :01:03.Barely more than a week now until polling day,

:01:04. > :01:13.and a new revelation rocks the US Presidential election campaign.

:01:14. > :01:16.If it wasn't bizarre enough, it just got more bizarre.

:01:17. > :01:18.The FBI have reopened their investigation into Hillary Clinton's

:01:19. > :01:21.use of private email servers whilst she was Secretary

:01:22. > :01:29.of State, after the discovery of further emails.

:01:30. > :01:34.Though not on her laptop or even the State Department.

:01:35. > :01:36.Donald Trump is saying that it's bigger than Watergate -

:01:37. > :01:38.so could it swing the election in his favour?

:01:39. > :01:40.We spoke to top US pollster, Frank Luntz.

:01:41. > :01:44.The FBI investigation is happening so late in the election process

:01:45. > :01:48.that it would be very difficult to derail a Clinton victory.

:01:49. > :01:51.That said, if there is one thing that could keep Hillary Clinton

:01:52. > :01:57.from the presidency, it's an FBI investigation.

:01:58. > :01:59.But there's still only four states that really matter, Florida, Ohio,

:02:00. > :02:04.Right now, Clinton has beyond the margin of error leads

:02:05. > :02:11.This would have to have a truly significant impact for the election

:02:12. > :02:19.There is a point about a week ago when I was prepared to say that

:02:20. > :02:24.Clinton had a 95% chance of winning this election.

:02:25. > :02:30.Based on what has happened in the last 48 hours,

:02:31. > :02:35.It is still very likely, but I wouldn't bet on it.

:02:36. > :02:38.I thought the 2000 election would be the best election of my lifetime,

:02:39. > :02:43.And then I thought 2008 would be amazing, because we had two

:02:44. > :02:46.challenger candidates and the first African-American President.

:02:47. > :02:55.It is ugly, it's painful, it is as negative as anything

:02:56. > :03:01.The public is angry, the country, overall, is frustrated.

:03:02. > :03:08.But for entertainment value, these candidates probably should

:03:09. > :03:12.have charged us money, because it's better than any movie

:03:13. > :03:14.at ever seen, it's better than any TV show.

:03:15. > :03:26.That was Frank Luntz. He may be right or wrong about Mrs Clinton

:03:27. > :03:34.still having an 80% chance of winning. I would bet on an 80%

:03:35. > :03:38.chance? Yes, absolutely. I spoke to a high-profile American pollster and

:03:39. > :03:44.strategist last night and he took a rather different view to Frank

:03:45. > :03:47.Luntz. He thought, and I think some other high-profile commentators

:03:48. > :03:51.agree, that this is actually much more serious than some people

:03:52. > :03:56.realise. There are an awful lot of undecided voters out there looking

:03:57. > :04:01.for an excuse to vote Trump. They do not like what they see in either

:04:02. > :04:05.candidate. But because this FBI probe is not going to conclude

:04:06. > :04:11.before the election, the question, the doubt over Hillary Clinton,

:04:12. > :04:15.gives them an excuse to back Trump. The thing that will play on the

:04:16. > :04:19.minds of the voters is, could the 100 day honeymoon turning to the 100

:04:20. > :04:26.day divorce? Which even be impeached? It may give some people

:04:27. > :04:30.an excuse not to vote for Mrs Clinton. It could provide a problem

:04:31. > :04:37.in terms of energising her base. The battle ground almost matters more

:04:38. > :04:43.than the polls. Florida and Pennsylvania have been trending to

:04:44. > :04:49.Mrs Clinton. Mr Trump needs to win both. He does not get in without

:04:50. > :04:55.both. He needs both. Just coming up in the latest BBC News, the

:04:56. > :05:01.Washington Post tracking poll, Mrs Clinton is now only one point ahead

:05:02. > :05:06.in the national poll. One point. Even given my caveat that the state

:05:07. > :05:11.battles are most important. That is incredibly close? It is. Polls

:05:12. > :05:19.yesterday showed Trump nationally closing of. -- up. There is a clear

:05:20. > :05:23.trend and movement. This has reinforced everything that people

:05:24. > :05:27.who have a problem with Hillary Clinton know about Hillary Clinton.

:05:28. > :05:32.Trump is running this insurgent campaign. We have seen at here with

:05:33. > :05:36.Brexit. If you are running an insurgent campaign, you want to be

:05:37. > :05:40.against the ultimate establishment insider and that is what Hillary

:05:41. > :05:46.Clinton is. I suggested it was bizarre. Fathoming the behaviour of

:05:47. > :05:50.the FBI is interesting as well. This is a separate investigation into a

:05:51. > :05:54.former congressman, Anthony Wiener, who had done all sorts of things. He

:05:55. > :06:03.seemed to be sex text thing a minor. A 15-year-old girl. The FBI

:06:04. > :06:09.investigate. They get his laptop to see what else he has been too. In

:06:10. > :06:13.the course of that, his wife, now separated, the closest adviser to

:06:14. > :06:23.Hillary Clinton, they find on the laptop e-mails involving the Clinton

:06:24. > :06:30.server to her. And yet the FBI cannot, it needs now a separate

:06:31. > :06:32.warrant to access these e-mails. It hasn't got that yet. It has got a

:06:33. > :06:40.warrant to do the congressman e-mails. On the basis of not knowing

:06:41. > :06:47.the content, this has happened. Yeah. Who knows? He is a Republican,

:06:48. > :06:51.this guy. Earlier this year he was being praised to the hilt by

:06:52. > :06:57.Democrats. Absolutely. The timing is a nightmare for her. You described

:06:58. > :07:02.the whole sequence. There is nothing definitive to doubt in this

:07:03. > :07:09.sequence. All he is saying is he has discovered more e-mails in effect.

:07:10. > :07:15.They are from the congressman's former wife. On Anthony Wiener's

:07:16. > :07:23.laptop, which apparently she used sometimes. But what that shows is

:07:24. > :07:27.that for all the scrutiny of modern politicians, they cannot escape

:07:28. > :07:32.caricature. And as Tim was just saying, her weakness is perceived to

:07:33. > :07:37.be secretive, elitism and complacency about that elitism. And

:07:38. > :07:42.so just the announcement of a reopening of the investigation so

:07:43. > :07:46.fuels that caricature, you have just revealed a poll giving her a 1%

:07:47. > :07:52.lead. That must be related to what has happened. It is without a shred

:07:53. > :07:57.of evidence that she has done anything wrong. You can see how,

:07:58. > :08:03.because people only see things encourage kids, that is deadly

:08:04. > :08:07.serious. -- in caricature. An American friend of mine said we have

:08:08. > :08:14.got our October surprise but we don't know what it is. The FBI must

:08:15. > :08:21.surely come under massive pressure. It did its -- it did this against

:08:22. > :08:24.the Justice Department. The difficulty the FBI had was that this

:08:25. > :08:30.information, for what it's worth, it came to them. Were they not to have

:08:31. > :08:34.said something and it worked to have come out later, they would have been

:08:35. > :08:38.accused of a massive cover-up. They are dammed if they do, dammed if

:08:39. > :08:42.they don't. There is still time for another surprise. And early November

:08:43. > :08:48.surprise. Who knows if there might still be something that comes out on

:08:49. > :08:51.Donald Trump? This is the first election where I can remember we

:08:52. > :08:57.have had two October surprises already. There are is stuff about

:08:58. > :09:02.tapes knocking around about Donald Trump saying racist things. The

:09:03. > :09:05.Clintons have got a lot of friends. It would be a big surprise if we did

:09:06. > :09:07.not see anything else in the next few days.

:09:08. > :09:14.Just when you think it could not get more interesting, it has. There has

:09:15. > :09:15.been plenty in the papers lately about the Ukip leadership saying

:09:16. > :09:18.unpleasant things about each other. But what about Mr Farage himself?

:09:19. > :09:21.What's he up to? Well, on BBC Two tonight we may

:09:22. > :09:23.find out the answer. Well, I'm led to believe

:09:24. > :09:30.she's very experienced. But I don't think Strictly Come

:09:31. > :09:32.Dancing is for me. That is, unless, of course,

:09:33. > :09:38.you fancy popping a cheeky zero No, I don't think Strictly

:09:39. > :09:42.Come Dancing is for me. Well, you tell Mr Balls he has just

:09:43. > :09:48.lost your programme one viewer. I might have nothing to do these

:09:49. > :10:10.days but, realistically, Well, that wasn't Nigel Farage. It

:10:11. > :10:16.is a BBC comedy on tonight. Nigel Farage gets his life back. A number

:10:17. > :10:21.of runners and riders. Let's come straight down to it. Who would be

:10:22. > :10:26.the next leader of Ukip? Probably Paul Nuttall. He is the favourite.

:10:27. > :10:32.The one who has the backing, not very enthusiastic backing, is Rahim

:10:33. > :10:43.Cassandra. And also Aaron Banks, a big donor. The best of a rather weak

:10:44. > :10:54.lot. I think Paul Nuttall should squeak through. I interviewed all

:10:55. > :10:56.three of them this week. Mr Cassandra is a lively character and

:10:57. > :11:00.he knows how to make a few headlines. With a bit of money

:11:01. > :11:04.behind him, anything is possible. This is a guy who has been to the

:11:05. > :11:15.States, who has literally studied what Trump has done. Pees on

:11:16. > :11:22.secondment for the time being. The guy who is his line manager is one

:11:23. > :11:24.of Donald Trump's campaign stop. He is extraordinarily right-wing. I am

:11:25. > :11:33.told he kept a picture of Enoch Powell by his bed. Barry Goldwater

:11:34. > :11:41.is one of his heroes, for example. There are other candidates. I would

:11:42. > :11:46.suggest, put out as a hypothesis, Paul Nuttall is Labour's worst

:11:47. > :11:52.nightmare. They are more vulnerable in the North. Paul Nuttall is from

:11:53. > :11:56.Merseyside, a working-class background, performs well on

:11:57. > :12:00.television. He is a really good interviewee. He is one of the best

:12:01. > :12:05.around in politics at the moment. However, I think whoever gets it has

:12:06. > :12:12.a massive task. The clip of this Nigel Farage satire partly shows

:12:13. > :12:16.why. His dominance was overwhelming. He, in many ways, did a brilliant

:12:17. > :12:20.job at keeping the show on the road. The trouble for all new political

:12:21. > :12:26.parties is keeping it going is tough. A very different party, the

:12:27. > :12:30.SDP, with all those glamorous figures in it, lasted eight years,

:12:31. > :12:33.something like that. I think they are in real trouble at the moment

:12:34. > :12:39.because of the implosion we have been seeing in front of our eyes and

:12:40. > :12:48.the ideal -- ideological splits. Whoever gets it will face a tough

:12:49. > :12:51.tussle. All three of the main contenders want to put Nigel Farage

:12:52. > :12:56.in the House of Lords. They were falling over themselves to soak up

:12:57. > :13:00.two farads. That is how you win this election.

:13:01. > :13:06.Mr Aaron Banks, who is he putting his money on? He said he supports

:13:07. > :13:12.Rahim. I know Mr Banks is utterly fed with the shenanigans in Ukip. He

:13:13. > :13:15.thinks it is terribly disorganised, dysfunctional and doesn't want a

:13:16. > :13:18.great deal to do with it for the foreseeable future.

:13:19. > :13:23.It is not quite Trump the Clinton but it is interesting. That is it.

:13:24. > :13:29.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow. And all of next week. Jo Coburn will

:13:30. > :13:33.be your next Sunday because I am off to the United States to begin to

:13:34. > :13:40.rehearse presenting the BBC's US election night coverage on the 8th

:13:41. > :13:40.of November. It will be here on BBC One, BBC

:13:41. > :13:43.world, BBC News Channel and BBC online.

:13:44. > :13:49.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.