:00:38. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:46.Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?
:00:47. > :00:50.After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.
:00:51. > :00:55.Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency
:00:56. > :01:00.The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.
:01:01. > :01:03.Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms
:01:04. > :01:07.of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?
:01:08. > :01:10.Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet
:01:11. > :01:13.minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head.
:01:14. > :01:16.How changes to the Labour rule book could decide who'll be
:01:17. > :01:18.the next First Minister, and what really happens behind
:01:19. > :01:33.the scenes when political leaders get together?
:01:34. > :01:36.And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:37. > :01:39.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme
:01:40. > :01:45.Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news
:01:46. > :01:48.of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came
:01:49. > :01:52.to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.
:01:53. > :01:57.Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader
:01:58. > :02:00.as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked
:02:01. > :02:04.Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social
:02:05. > :02:06.justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"
:02:07. > :02:11.President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader
:02:12. > :02:14.as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death
:02:15. > :02:17.would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people
:02:18. > :02:22.finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".
:02:23. > :02:24.Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,
:02:25. > :02:27.Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader
:02:28. > :02:30.was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged
:02:31. > :02:45.I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the
:02:46. > :02:49.reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I
:02:50. > :02:57.noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to
:02:58. > :03:01.Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he
:03:02. > :03:05.was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,
:03:06. > :03:08.agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many
:03:09. > :03:12.people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been
:03:13. > :03:17.inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream
:03:18. > :03:21.consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this
:03:22. > :03:26.respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would
:03:27. > :03:32.be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.
:03:33. > :03:35.Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have
:03:36. > :03:41.looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection
:03:42. > :03:45.for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error
:03:46. > :03:49.dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?
:03:50. > :03:56.He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He
:03:57. > :03:59.wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually
:04:00. > :04:02.look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other
:04:03. > :04:09.countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a
:04:10. > :04:13.champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been
:04:14. > :04:19.utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have
:04:20. > :04:23.thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic
:04:24. > :04:29.failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when
:04:30. > :04:34.Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the
:04:35. > :04:41.debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any
:04:42. > :04:53.criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There
:04:54. > :04:56.were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would
:04:57. > :05:05.have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban
:05:06. > :05:10.solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It
:05:11. > :05:14.existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,
:05:15. > :05:18.who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday
:05:19. > :05:23.saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the
:05:24. > :05:28.world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He
:05:29. > :05:35.never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks
:05:36. > :05:42.ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The
:05:43. > :05:49.lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated
:05:50. > :05:55.stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was
:05:56. > :06:02.working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there
:06:03. > :06:06.will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet
:06:07. > :06:12.and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say
:06:13. > :06:28.it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism
:06:29. > :06:35.that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime
:06:36. > :06:41.Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to
:06:42. > :06:46.open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing
:06:47. > :06:49.brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.
:06:50. > :06:57.When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying
:06:58. > :07:02.the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as
:07:03. > :07:05.all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a
:07:06. > :07:10.leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either
:07:11. > :07:16.decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it
:07:17. > :07:20.was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure
:07:21. > :07:25.worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.
:07:26. > :07:29.There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they
:07:30. > :07:36.sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris
:07:37. > :07:43.Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to
:07:44. > :07:47.deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.
:07:48. > :07:56.And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr
:07:57. > :07:59.Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.
:08:00. > :08:00.That was what made it so fascinating.
:08:01. > :08:04.Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS
:08:05. > :08:08.in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020
:08:09. > :08:11.on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth
:08:12. > :08:18.Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling
:08:19. > :08:20."Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,
:08:21. > :08:27.but some of the proposals are already running into local
:08:28. > :08:30.opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.
:08:31. > :08:36.Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.
:08:37. > :08:39.But east of England ambulance call operators
:08:40. > :08:43.they're sending an early intervention vehicle
:08:44. > :08:51.with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.
:08:52. > :08:53.It's being piloted here for over 65s with
:08:54. > :08:59.When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be
:09:00. > :09:01.treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.
:09:02. > :09:04.Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,
:09:05. > :09:07.taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,
:09:08. > :09:13.So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided
:09:14. > :09:26.The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able
:09:27. > :09:28.to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,
:09:29. > :09:30.to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand
:09:31. > :09:33.where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how
:09:34. > :09:38.best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems
:09:39. > :09:41.that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.
:09:42. > :09:43.This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how
:09:44. > :09:50.You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.
:09:51. > :09:56.The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.
:09:57. > :09:58.What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.
:09:59. > :10:02.Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went
:10:03. > :10:04.through after broad public and political consultation
:10:05. > :10:08.with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.
:10:09. > :10:11.It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS
:10:12. > :10:18.trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.
:10:19. > :10:21.It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide
:10:22. > :10:27.The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS
:10:28. > :10:34.in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion
:10:35. > :10:36.worth of efficiencies across the country.
:10:37. > :10:38.In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health
:10:39. > :10:41.and care partnerships, and each one will provide
:10:42. > :10:45.a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,
:10:46. > :10:49.provide better services and save money.
:10:50. > :10:53.So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people
:10:54. > :10:56.in the health service and local government,
:10:57. > :11:02.The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending
:11:03. > :11:06.growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.
:11:07. > :11:12.STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way
:11:13. > :11:18.But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number
:11:19. > :11:23.of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle
:11:24. > :11:27.ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed
:11:28. > :11:31.This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his
:11:32. > :11:39.I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close
:11:40. > :11:43.all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out
:11:44. > :11:45.of the acute sector who are elderly and looking
:11:46. > :11:48.That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,
:11:49. > :11:57.All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,
:11:58. > :12:02.But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.
:12:03. > :12:05.The Government's sustainability and transformation plans
:12:06. > :12:10.for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.
:12:11. > :12:13.The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings
:12:14. > :12:18.within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.
:12:19. > :12:22.There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.
:12:23. > :12:25.Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week
:12:26. > :12:29.about the importance of community hospitals in general,
:12:30. > :12:35.These are proposals out to consultation.
:12:36. > :12:40.What could happen if these plans get blocked?
:12:41. > :12:44.If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come
:12:45. > :12:49.to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned
:12:50. > :12:51.deterioration and services becoming unstable and service
:12:52. > :12:57.The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement
:12:58. > :13:04.but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs
:13:05. > :13:06.are in the interests of local people.
:13:07. > :13:08.Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England
:13:09. > :13:10.to push through these controversial regional plans,
:13:11. > :13:16.which will soon face public scrutiny.
:13:17. > :13:22.We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,
:13:23. > :13:25.I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,
:13:26. > :13:42.Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of
:13:43. > :13:45.efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of
:13:46. > :13:50.independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22
:13:51. > :13:54.billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you
:13:55. > :13:58.drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have
:13:59. > :14:01.been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that
:14:02. > :14:05.some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community
:14:06. > :14:09.pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000
:14:10. > :14:14.pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and
:14:15. > :14:18.GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,
:14:19. > :14:26.which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a
:14:27. > :14:32.local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these
:14:33. > :14:35.efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from
:14:36. > :14:42.Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve
:14:43. > :14:49.health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable
:14:50. > :14:52.transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical
:14:53. > :14:57.health, mental health and social care, for those services to
:14:58. > :14:59.collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented
:15:00. > :15:06.system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground
:15:07. > :15:10.has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,
:15:11. > :15:15.the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By
:15:16. > :15:18.2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to
:15:19. > :15:24.redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the
:15:25. > :15:27.money in. So of course, getting these services working better
:15:28. > :15:31.together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would
:15:32. > :15:36.have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the
:15:37. > :15:41.last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is
:15:42. > :15:48.an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?
:15:49. > :15:55.Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22
:15:56. > :16:00.billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.
:16:01. > :16:05.But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they
:16:06. > :16:11.said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have
:16:12. > :16:16.changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by
:16:17. > :16:22.2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by
:16:23. > :16:26.20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually
:16:27. > :16:30.transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the
:16:31. > :16:35.commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been
:16:36. > :16:39.cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year
:16:40. > :16:42.project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the
:16:43. > :16:48.Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week
:16:49. > :16:55.there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the
:16:56. > :17:00.efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by
:17:01. > :17:05.2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now
:17:06. > :17:08.for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with
:17:09. > :17:14.everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers
:17:15. > :17:21.and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I
:17:22. > :17:27.had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they
:17:28. > :17:32.expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by
:17:33. > :17:37.now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?
:17:38. > :17:42.To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The
:17:43. > :17:49.budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like
:17:50. > :18:00.co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a
:18:01. > :18:06.plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in
:18:07. > :18:10.2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is
:18:11. > :18:16.committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently
:18:17. > :18:21.John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are
:18:22. > :18:25.talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current
:18:26. > :18:29.spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the
:18:30. > :18:36.money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If
:18:37. > :18:47.you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from
:18:48. > :18:51.the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?
:18:52. > :19:00.That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for
:19:01. > :19:04.Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to
:19:05. > :19:08.give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the
:19:09. > :19:13.Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do
:19:14. > :19:17.it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give
:19:18. > :19:21.the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like
:19:22. > :19:25.any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what
:19:26. > :19:31.the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.
:19:32. > :19:34.I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election
:19:35. > :19:37.with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has
:19:38. > :19:42.been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.
:19:43. > :19:47.You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not
:19:48. > :19:52.a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment
:19:53. > :19:56.to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting
:19:57. > :20:01.a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about
:20:02. > :20:06.4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that
:20:07. > :20:09.substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have
:20:10. > :20:18.access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to
:20:19. > :20:23.be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap
:20:24. > :20:28.in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what
:20:29. > :20:34.this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an
:20:35. > :20:39.efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we
:20:40. > :20:43.agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see
:20:44. > :20:51.productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through
:20:52. > :20:57.investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.
:20:58. > :21:04.One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They
:21:05. > :21:08.are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe
:21:09. > :21:11.that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that
:21:12. > :21:16.contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking
:21:17. > :21:22.about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30
:21:23. > :21:29.billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend
:21:30. > :21:32.more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper
:21:33. > :21:36.care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40
:21:37. > :21:41.billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the
:21:42. > :21:46.account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that
:21:47. > :21:49.and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with
:21:50. > :21:53.that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we
:21:54. > :21:57.are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the
:21:58. > :22:05.investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.
:22:06. > :22:10.The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in
:22:11. > :22:14.A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in
:22:15. > :22:18.hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save
:22:19. > :22:21.the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the
:22:22. > :22:26.Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What
:22:27. > :22:29.I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your
:22:30. > :22:34.reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi
:22:35. > :22:41.Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger
:22:42. > :22:48.of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree
:22:49. > :22:54.with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a
:22:55. > :22:57.result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just
:22:58. > :23:02.going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of
:23:03. > :23:06.these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see
:23:07. > :23:10.if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they
:23:11. > :23:13.have the support of local authorities because they now have a
:23:14. > :23:17.role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the
:23:18. > :23:21.right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.
:23:22. > :23:25.We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they
:23:26. > :23:30.don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,
:23:31. > :23:35.you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with
:23:36. > :23:40.finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are
:23:41. > :23:47.cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like
:23:48. > :23:50.5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector
:23:51. > :23:55.in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long
:23:56. > :24:00.term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very
:24:01. > :24:03.sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the
:24:04. > :24:09.sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,
:24:10. > :24:14.which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy
:24:15. > :24:20.nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of
:24:21. > :24:25.the other countries, European countries included, we need to put
:24:26. > :24:30.up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the
:24:31. > :24:36.Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me
:24:37. > :24:41.down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up
:24:42. > :24:44.with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European
:24:45. > :24:48.average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,
:24:49. > :24:54.but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need
:24:55. > :24:57.substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was
:24:58. > :25:01.extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the
:25:02. > :25:06.Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,
:25:07. > :25:11.whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to
:25:12. > :25:13.us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.
:25:14. > :25:15.Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations
:25:16. > :25:18.before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait
:25:19. > :25:20.for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote
:25:21. > :25:24.If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats
:25:25. > :25:26.and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU
:25:27. > :25:29.referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before
:25:30. > :25:32.And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested
:25:33. > :25:35.that the referendum result could be reversed.
:25:36. > :25:38.In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,
:25:39. > :25:42.Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,
:25:43. > :25:44.having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis
:25:45. > :25:50.John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting
:25:51. > :25:53.of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit
:25:54. > :25:55.were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".
:25:56. > :25:57.He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"
:25:58. > :26:01.That prompted the former Conservative leader
:26:02. > :26:04.Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.
:26:05. > :26:07.He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply
:26:08. > :26:09.because they disagree with the original result does
:26:10. > :26:14.seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."
:26:15. > :26:17.So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms
:26:18. > :26:22.of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?
:26:23. > :26:25.Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect
:26:26. > :26:29.the will of the people and that means they must have their say
:26:30. > :26:32.in a referendum on the terms of the deal."
:26:33. > :26:35.But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support
:26:36. > :26:41.One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.
:26:42. > :26:44.He backs the idea of a second referendum.
:26:45. > :26:47.But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,
:26:48. > :26:50."Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting
:26:51. > :26:58.To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum
:26:59. > :27:01.on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two
:27:02. > :27:04.In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,
:27:05. > :27:06.and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister
:27:07. > :27:18.Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have
:27:19. > :27:24.spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or
:27:25. > :27:31.you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the
:27:32. > :27:34.referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I
:27:35. > :27:39.said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we
:27:40. > :27:45.will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but
:27:46. > :27:52.we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the
:27:53. > :27:59.British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would
:28:00. > :28:03.then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's
:28:04. > :28:07.lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,
:28:08. > :28:12.you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on
:28:13. > :28:20.immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many
:28:21. > :28:26.fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be
:28:27. > :28:30.a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many
:28:31. > :28:35.occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different
:28:36. > :28:39.thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be
:28:40. > :28:42.true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the
:28:43. > :28:48.destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about
:28:49. > :28:52.the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be
:28:53. > :28:56.appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft
:28:57. > :29:01.Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more
:29:02. > :29:07.difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign
:29:08. > :29:11.but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on
:29:12. > :29:15.the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on
:29:16. > :29:18.what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and
:29:19. > :29:26.putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous
:29:27. > :29:30.idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an
:29:31. > :29:35.impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make
:29:36. > :29:40.sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard
:29:41. > :29:44.Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum
:29:45. > :29:50.campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means
:29:51. > :29:53.making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected
:29:54. > :29:57.politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting
:29:58. > :30:01.control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was
:30:02. > :30:07.clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million
:30:08. > :30:12.votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more
:30:13. > :30:17.than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14
:30:18. > :30:21.million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very
:30:22. > :30:26.clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we
:30:27. > :30:29.going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to
:30:30. > :30:32.trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better
:30:33. > :30:42.place. OK, I need to get a debate going.
:30:43. > :30:46.Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was
:30:47. > :30:48.going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a
:30:49. > :30:50.second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the
:30:51. > :30:55.worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a
:30:56. > :31:00.ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could
:31:01. > :31:02.go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the
:31:03. > :31:06.European Union is less important than the opinion of the British
:31:07. > :31:11.people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me
:31:12. > :31:17.precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain
:31:18. > :31:20.voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson
:31:21. > :31:25.and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the
:31:26. > :31:29.range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.
:31:30. > :31:32.There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,
:31:33. > :31:38.getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,
:31:39. > :31:45.this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.
:31:46. > :31:52.The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our
:31:53. > :31:55.laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of
:31:56. > :32:02.what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would
:32:03. > :32:07.be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the
:32:08. > :32:11.hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The
:32:12. > :32:18.biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British
:32:19. > :32:22.history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally
:32:23. > :32:27.proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a
:32:28. > :32:33.strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks
:32:34. > :32:44.like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.
:32:45. > :32:52.He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct
:32:53. > :32:57.possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a
:32:58. > :33:00.second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on
:33:01. > :33:04.ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British
:33:05. > :33:11.people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and
:33:12. > :33:20.keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to
:33:21. > :33:23.that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying
:33:24. > :33:34.attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have
:33:35. > :33:37.to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said
:33:38. > :33:44.that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,
:33:45. > :33:48.they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European
:33:49. > :33:53.Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the
:33:54. > :34:05.process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why
:34:06. > :34:09.Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to
:34:10. > :34:17.ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote
:34:18. > :34:28.by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it
:34:29. > :34:34.best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would
:34:35. > :34:38.have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because
:34:39. > :34:46.I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.
:34:47. > :34:52.Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The
:34:53. > :34:57.central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a
:34:58. > :35:02.destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if
:35:03. > :35:07.it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be
:35:08. > :35:10.undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on
:35:11. > :35:14.the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain
:35:15. > :35:21.members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs
:35:22. > :35:25.union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude
:35:26. > :35:28.towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the
:35:29. > :35:32.government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have
:35:33. > :35:37.no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental
:35:38. > :35:44.case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a
:35:45. > :35:52.clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment
:35:53. > :35:54.figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do
:35:55. > :36:01.to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not
:36:02. > :36:05.delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,
:36:06. > :36:11.wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people
:36:12. > :36:15.who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it
:36:16. > :36:19.will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the
:36:20. > :36:27.whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is
:36:28. > :36:31.very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the
:36:32. > :36:40.answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and
:36:41. > :36:46.French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it
:36:47. > :36:50.not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it
:36:51. > :36:53.would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I
:36:54. > :36:57.think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't
:36:58. > :37:00.been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in
:37:01. > :37:04.Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.
:37:05. > :37:09.They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic
:37:10. > :37:12.process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen
:37:13. > :37:20.suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the
:37:21. > :37:24.government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to
:37:25. > :37:34.listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,
:37:35. > :37:39.as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second
:37:40. > :37:42.referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it
:37:43. > :37:49.there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have
:37:50. > :37:52.eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!
:37:53. > :37:54.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:55. > :38:08.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:09. > :38:10.Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:38:11. > :38:11.On today's programme: The British-Irish Council
:38:12. > :38:14.met in Wales this week, but what really happens at these
:38:15. > :38:18.And the Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies will be here live
:38:19. > :38:20.to talk about a fairer future for Wales after,
:38:21. > :38:22.yes, you've guessed it, Brexit.
:38:23. > :38:24.But first, no-one likes a good root around the rule book more
:38:25. > :38:31.This programme has learned the party in Wales is to consider
:38:32. > :38:33.changing its leadership election rules to the system
:38:34. > :38:36.which saw Jeremy Corbyn become UK party leader.
:38:37. > :38:38.Any changes could have a major impact on which person eventually
:38:39. > :38:51.Paul Martin has been reading between the lines for us...
:38:52. > :38:57.Check the rule book, where would our political parties be without them?
:38:58. > :39:02.For many Labour members, the rules are sacred. Written, revered and
:39:03. > :39:07.amended down the ages by comrades of the past. Last year, Jeremy Corbyn
:39:08. > :39:12.won the Labour leadership after a major change to the Labour rule
:39:13. > :39:16.book. He got in under a symbol -- simple one member, one-vote system,
:39:17. > :39:20.with registered supporters given a thought, too. Many saw the change is
:39:21. > :39:24.a big factor his victory, but the rules for electing the leader of
:39:25. > :39:27.Welsh Labour or not changed at the same time. The system here remains
:39:28. > :39:32.what is known as an electoral college. The vote is weighted
:39:33. > :39:40.equally between three sections. Elected members, that is AMs, MPs
:39:41. > :39:44.and Welsh Labour's MEP, ordinary members and trade unions and other
:39:45. > :39:50.affiliated groups. Welsh Labour now has the power to decide whether to
:39:51. > :39:56.stick with this system or move to one member, one vote. The decision
:39:57. > :39:59.will affect the future contest over who succeeds Carwyn Jones. The man
:40:00. > :40:05.himself is not saying when he plans to stand down. I have no plans to
:40:06. > :40:11.change in the near future. The gossip is that he may go sometime in
:40:12. > :40:15.2019. The new rules would also apply to a potential deputy leader
:40:16. > :40:20.contest. But there is a battle looming. Many on the left of the
:40:21. > :40:25.party having seen Jeremy Corbyn when two victories under one member, one
:40:26. > :40:29.vote, want the same system here. I fully support one member, one vote.
:40:30. > :40:37.And they did as a fairer system. Every member has a vote that counts
:40:38. > :40:40.the same. But others often described as more centrist or moderate think
:40:41. > :40:45.the electoral college is the better option. We are a broad church. The
:40:46. > :40:49.electoral college represents all wings of the party and,
:40:50. > :40:53.fundamentally, ensures that whoever leads Welsh Labour has the support
:40:54. > :40:57.of the Labour group in the National Assembly. A left-wing candidates
:40:58. > :41:03.like Finance secretary Mark Drakeford could in theory benefit
:41:04. > :41:07.from one member, one vote. Other potential candidates, like Health
:41:08. > :41:12.Secretary Von Gavin, economy secretary Ken skates and some of the
:41:13. > :41:16.new intake of Labour AMs are seen as more centrist. They may favour the
:41:17. > :41:19.electoral college. One former adviser thinks advocates of either
:41:20. > :41:26.system are being pragmatic rather than principled. What people are
:41:27. > :41:30.saying now in terms of the time they vote -- where they will get more
:41:31. > :41:33.votes for their particular candidate. We did have a discussion
:41:34. > :41:38.about democracy but what it comes down to is what the direction of the
:41:39. > :41:42.party and two you want to be the First Minister, when you think you
:41:43. > :41:46.would get more votes. Given the recent blood-letting within the
:41:47. > :41:50.party, I asked the man who will oversee the consultation if it is
:41:51. > :41:54.going to become another big and divisive row. I'm sure some
:41:55. > :41:59.individuals would like that to be the case, but as the chair of the
:42:00. > :42:03.party and will be looking to try and unite both sides of that argument.
:42:04. > :42:11.And to take it forward in the way that I have outlined. Quietly,
:42:12. > :42:15.gently, thoroughly and methodically, so at the end of this we get a
:42:16. > :42:19.process that everybody can say, I have had an opportunity to have my
:42:20. > :42:23.say. Welsh Labour will start studying the views of members after
:42:24. > :42:27.the spring conference, and the consultation will last one year. The
:42:28. > :42:33.final say will either by the executive committee or a full vote
:42:34. > :42:36.at the 20 18th conference. Welsh Labour is taking its time over
:42:37. > :42:40.writing its own chapter in the rule book, but with potential
:42:41. > :42:42.implications of the future direction of the party, it is going to be an
:42:43. > :42:44.interesting read. Just a bumpy Brexit
:42:45. > :42:53.and a few ring roads". The words of the First Minister
:42:54. > :42:56.today, as has called for the UK Government to work more closely
:42:57. > :42:58.with Wales over Brexit. Carwyn Jones' article was written
:42:59. > :43:00.shortly after he hosted a meeting Now everyone's in favour
:43:01. > :43:03.of more co-operations, but what actually happens at these
:43:04. > :43:06.events and how much use are they? We sent Cemlyn Davies along
:43:07. > :43:33.to have a good scout One after the other, the heavyweight
:43:34. > :43:35.arrived. Ready to talk politics, but rugby, too, as Alan Kane to London
:43:36. > :43:42.to Wales international Jamie Roberts ahead of the summit's kick-off.
:43:43. > :43:45.Created as a result of the Good Friday agreement, the British -
:43:46. > :43:50.Irish Council brings together eight different administrations. With the
:43:51. > :43:57.aim of promoting good relations and co-operation. The focus of today's
:43:58. > :44:00.discussion is Brexit. The meeting is just getting under way in there so
:44:01. > :44:04.we have be asked to leave. We will get to speak to the leaders in a
:44:05. > :44:09.couple of hours when they hold a press conference here. What's goes
:44:10. > :44:13.on behind closed doors at these meetings? I have been speaking to
:44:14. > :44:18.one former Welsh government adviser who has attended Harrow fair share
:44:19. > :44:24.of British- Irish summits. In this shot, Joe Kiernan can been seen --
:44:25. > :44:29.can be seen sitting behind Nick Clegg and the Welsh First Minister,
:44:30. > :44:32.Carwyn Jones. Allan there are opportunities and plenary sessions
:44:33. > :44:35.for everyone to centrepiece, but really it is the meetings that
:44:36. > :44:44.happened behind closed doors, maybe between Carwyn Jones and Nicola
:44:45. > :44:46.Sturgeon, or the Northern Ireland First Minister and Deputy First
:44:47. > :44:52.Minister. Both the discussions around the dinner where a few
:44:53. > :44:56.glasses of wine are hands, or over breakfast, are as important if not
:44:57. > :45:01.more important than the formal plenary sessions. It gives us a
:45:02. > :45:05.framework for practical cooperation in areas where we can do more by
:45:06. > :45:11.working together. The first meeting was held in London in December,
:45:12. > :45:14.1999, when Tony Blair chaired the talks and Wales was represented by
:45:15. > :45:23.the first secretary Matt Alun Michael. This is the 28th summits
:45:24. > :45:28.and the individuals and personalities involved have changed
:45:29. > :45:31.quite a bit of good years. The Low personalities are obviously very
:45:32. > :45:36.different. When Alex Salmond was there, he took a more kind of desk
:45:37. > :45:42.banging, I want to tell you what is going on, kind of attitude to it. If
:45:43. > :45:47.Carwyn Jones was cross and about lack of economic stimulus with the
:45:48. > :45:51.fact that we were not getting our fair share of money in terms of the
:45:52. > :45:55.consequential, he would let them know in no uncertain terms. I could
:45:56. > :46:01.do hotel at last, time for the politicians to face the press. From
:46:02. > :46:07.our perspective, there are two issues that need to be emphasised.
:46:08. > :46:13.The market access issue. From a constitutional perspective, we would
:46:14. > :46:19.not well, in any way shape or form any reduction in the powers of the
:46:20. > :46:25.people of Wales and they're elected assembly in government. One of the
:46:26. > :46:30.key objectives is to get the best arrangements for UK business to
:46:31. > :46:36.operate with and trade within the single markets of the European
:46:37. > :46:41.Union. We also recognise the outcome of the EU referendum, are very clear
:46:42. > :46:45.message was given in to migration. I didn't like the decision of the UK
:46:46. > :46:49.electorate but I respected and we now have to deal with it. The best
:46:50. > :46:53.outcome would be something as close to what we have at the moment. The
:46:54. > :46:59.imposition of tariffs and border checks would be of enormous
:47:00. > :47:03.inconvenience, time wasting delays, like of investment and costing jobs
:47:04. > :47:07.at the end. We are getting to a position where we are hearing the
:47:08. > :47:10.views, concerns and getting to a position where, by the time we
:47:11. > :47:15.invoke Article 50, we can get the best deal for the whole of the UK.
:47:16. > :47:18.Alun Cairns was one of four UK Government representatives at the
:47:19. > :47:25.summit. The Prime Minister did not attend. How frustrated you do
:47:26. > :47:28.Theresa May is not here? I think the prime ministers should come to the
:47:29. > :47:32.British Irish Council meetings. I have long thought that. I have been
:47:33. > :47:36.coming to these meetings are quite some time, even before I was First
:47:37. > :47:39.Minister. I might be wrong here but I don't think you COBRA minister has
:47:40. > :47:44.been to any of the meetings that I have to. The Taoiseach, but Enda
:47:45. > :47:49.Kenny and his predecessors, have always come to the Council meetings.
:47:50. > :47:53.Generally I think the UK prime ministers should attend, but
:47:54. > :47:56.particularly now when the issues impacting on all of us are so
:47:57. > :48:02.serious. I think it would be a good idea if the Prime Minister could
:48:03. > :48:05.come to the next one. It has been suggested she doesn't take this
:48:06. > :48:09.forum seriously. I won't fade out by typing she would send an important
:48:10. > :48:16.signal that she does take it seriously. Why is the Prime Minister
:48:17. > :48:20.not here? I think this is a forum which, traditionally, territorial
:48:21. > :48:22.departments have taken the lead. It was right that the Welsh Secretary
:48:23. > :48:25.of the Northern Ireland Secretary, because of the relationship of this
:48:26. > :48:29.organisation to the Belfast agreement, play their role. The
:48:30. > :48:32.Prime Minister has meant personally with the Taoiseach and each of the
:48:33. > :48:38.leaders of the devolved administrations. This room is pretty
:48:39. > :48:43.much deserted now. That is apart from a few conscientious reporters,
:48:44. > :48:45.still working hard. We have had a press conference, than the
:48:46. > :48:52.interviews and the packing up is well under way. Shortly afterwards,
:48:53. > :48:55.it was time to say goodbye, until they meet again at the next summit
:48:56. > :48:58.in Northern Ireland. That is in June.
:48:59. > :49:00.Remember the big red bus and its promise of ?350
:49:01. > :49:02.million extra a week for the NHS after Brexit?
:49:03. > :49:04.This week the Chancellor said far from freeing up
:49:05. > :49:06.funds, Brexit would cost the country billions instead.
:49:07. > :49:09.This morning the Welsh Conservatives have said they want to see a fairer
:49:10. > :49:11.way of distributing structural funds after we leave.
:49:12. > :49:13.Well, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives,
:49:14. > :49:15.and a leading Brexiteer, of course, Andrew RT Davies
:49:16. > :49:32.Good morning. We can start by looking at your plans, your
:49:33. > :49:36.proposals, this morning. It is to do with the grant aid, hundreds of
:49:37. > :49:41.millions, billions of pounds which came to West Wales and the valleys
:49:42. > :49:44.and other parts of Wales. What you want to see change? We don't know
:49:45. > :49:48.how much money will be coming but how would you like to see it used?
:49:49. > :49:53.These are the things we should be looking at in the assembly, as
:49:54. > :49:57.political parties. I can fully understand why people are fixated on
:49:58. > :50:01.Brexit, Article 50, but when the wishes of the British people are
:50:02. > :50:05.enacted and we leave the EU, there will be a new landscape for
:50:06. > :50:09.delivering social cohesion funding, regeneration, agriculture. We need
:50:10. > :50:14.to be focusing on how we are going to do that. It is a very tight
:50:15. > :50:17.timetable. We don't believe it should be just narrow geographical
:50:18. > :50:22.limitations on the way the money is spent, which is how it has been done
:50:23. > :50:26.up until now. You had areas of Wales that were identified on a map that
:50:27. > :50:28.said, you get this amount of money to regenerate yourselves and
:50:29. > :50:33.increase economic performance. That failed miserably. Areas like Barry
:50:34. > :50:39.have been excluded from that. Areas of mid-wells had been excluded. But
:50:40. > :50:48.that is not true. It is true! I have the figures. Between 2014 2020, two
:50:49. > :50:52..4 euros billion are due to come to Wales. 2 billion went to West Wales
:50:53. > :50:58.and the valleys, 400 million went to East Wales which included Barry,
:50:59. > :51:05.Wrexham, Vale of Glamorgan. In Barry, 100,000 on Barry town Hall,
:51:06. > :51:09.one point million on the hub. Barry was getting a fair share of that
:51:10. > :51:13.money for the needs of Barry. What was wrong there? It wasn't because
:51:14. > :51:17.of you look at Barry and some of the words in Barry, I have social
:51:18. > :51:21.deprivation indices as high as any in the valleys. If you look at some
:51:22. > :51:26.areas in mid Wales, where you have deep pockets of rural deprivation,
:51:27. > :51:30.and have had very little luck assistance. Some money has gone in
:51:31. > :51:36.and structural funds, but when we look at the performance they have
:51:37. > :51:40.not done what they were supposed to do. I think what we need to be
:51:41. > :51:44.looking at is getting greater community involvement in these
:51:45. > :51:48.projects. I was chairman of creative rural communities which is a
:51:49. > :51:54.regeneration partnership set up in the Vale of Glamorgan, with limited
:51:55. > :51:57.funds, that was community land. People don't want these great big
:51:58. > :52:01.government structures dictating how they spend the money or regenerate
:52:02. > :52:06.their communities. They have got the ideas. Let's unlock the ideas by
:52:07. > :52:11.working with them. You want to see more areas, more projects, sharing
:52:12. > :52:15.however much money will come down from the UK Government in future?
:52:16. > :52:20.Maybe one of the problems with that is that weakness, according to be a
:52:21. > :52:25.valuations of the objectives, were this sprinkling of money everywhere
:52:26. > :52:29.rather than focusing on fewer, larger projects. You seem to be
:52:30. > :52:34.suggesting going to gut wriggling of money everywhere which might not
:52:35. > :52:36.lead to any improvements. We are saying that we need to have that
:52:37. > :52:41.conversation and start this thinking. We want to see more
:52:42. > :52:44.community led projects that actually take their leadership from the
:52:45. > :52:51.community rather than a top-down approach which is what most
:52:52. > :52:54.governments have done since 1999. By identifying their own pet projects
:52:55. > :52:57.which have redundantly failed because we haven't seen the
:52:58. > :53:02.performance in economic and Richmond in areas where the money has gone,
:53:03. > :53:04.such as the valleys, West Wales. And exclusion of vast areas of Wales to
:53:05. > :53:10.the detriment of the economic performance of those areas. I get
:53:11. > :53:16.the point that people are fixated on Article 50 and also on the
:53:17. > :53:20.negotiations. The point I'm making is that that is the big picture
:53:21. > :53:24.stuff, but our perspective, we have to be looking at what we want in
:53:25. > :53:30.Wales after we come out of the EU. That conversation has been pushed
:53:31. > :53:34.out because of the big picture of Article 50 and the Brexit
:53:35. > :53:37.negotiations. I am trying to stick on to the grant aid that we are
:53:38. > :53:42.discussing before you started imagine Article 50. We talk about
:53:43. > :53:45.pet projects from the Welsh government which have failed. The
:53:46. > :53:49.areas of these 12 that haven't prospered. Areas like Cardiff
:53:50. > :53:53.Wrexham, they have prospered over the last few years. It's not like
:53:54. > :53:58.those areas are struggling desperately. The money from
:53:59. > :54:02.objective one was areas like the valleys, West Wales, really
:54:03. > :54:10.struggling. Perhaps the failure is there, if they have not increased
:54:11. > :54:14.the GDP, the economy there, he doesn't seem that you are offering
:54:15. > :54:19.any answers. Other than, let's have all the communities involved in
:54:20. > :54:23.certain projects. There are plenty of examples you can take that show
:54:24. > :54:27.that with community led projects, working with businesses in
:54:28. > :54:31.particular, rather than the public sector lead, you can achieve better
:54:32. > :54:34.results. The city Deal concept is a great way of looking assets, putting
:54:35. > :54:39.public private sector development together. Public money and private
:54:40. > :54:44.money put together to unleash greater potential. What we haven't
:54:45. > :54:48.done in Wales since 1999 is embraced the private sector, work with them
:54:49. > :54:53.as partners in those communities. They have said no, the public sector
:54:54. > :54:57.are the only ones who have the answers. They don't. You need a
:54:58. > :55:02.partnership approach. You also need to be looking at areas of mid-Wales
:55:03. > :55:04.and the South as well, Harry, which have not developed as they should
:55:05. > :55:11.because they have been excluded from much of the generation. You won't
:55:12. > :55:17.like this next bit because I want to talk about Article 50 and the
:55:18. > :55:20.process of exiting the EU. It is undoubtedly very important. One of
:55:21. > :55:33.the things we have heard over the last few days, Mark Drakeford,
:55:34. > :55:38.Carwyn Jones's right-hand man, he was saying that when it comes to
:55:39. > :55:41.negotiations, they want to be fully involves on outlining the UK's
:55:42. > :55:45.negotiation positions. They also want to be in the room, part of
:55:46. > :55:56.those negotiations, when they involve devolved areas. Is that
:55:57. > :56:03.something you agree with? Environment, agriculture, fisheries.
:56:04. > :56:06.What is the Prime Minister's clamoured the moment? She has
:56:07. > :56:09.identified that she wants to work with the devolved administrations do
:56:10. > :56:12.make sure they're having their input into the UK position when
:56:13. > :56:17.negotiating the exit from the European Union. The UK Government
:56:18. > :56:21.have the point on this. That is that they're the ones who will leave the
:56:22. > :56:26.crochet since. That is clearly understood. The prime ministers that
:56:27. > :56:29.they structure where, periodically, overtime, the governments of
:56:30. > :56:34.Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, will come together with the UK
:56:35. > :56:37.Government, or come areas of mutual interest, but ultimately it is the
:56:38. > :56:47.UK Government which is on points. The UK Government... You are
:56:48. > :56:53.outlining the situation as it is. Mark Drakeford would like to see
:56:54. > :56:57.more involvement from the Welsh government on devolved areas, and
:56:58. > :57:01.considers their responsibility, not the UK Government's responsibility.
:57:02. > :57:08.It is a devolved area. Shouldn't they be in the room? I would quietly
:57:09. > :57:13.and firmly say to Mark Drakeford, deal with the areas you have
:57:14. > :57:19.responsibility over. That is what they want. Use the it is to shape
:57:20. > :57:23.policy that are to you. There was it is many because the prime ministers
:57:24. > :57:25.set up the structures for Mark Drakeford -- Mark Drakeford and
:57:26. > :57:33.Carwyn Jones to negotiate on behalf of wealth. On one side, you have
:57:34. > :57:37.Labour Cabinet secretaries and the First Minister as saying they wanted
:57:38. > :57:40.me in the room, taken notice of. They are being taken notice of. When
:57:41. > :57:43.I offered to work with Carwyn Jones to make sure Wales got the best
:57:44. > :57:47.possible deal but they could out of all these negotiations, he flatly
:57:48. > :57:52.rejected the offer of help at the hand of friendship. There are two
:57:53. > :57:56.faces to Carwyn Jones and Welsh Labour on this. They believe they
:57:57. > :57:59.are the only ones who should represent Wales, when his own
:58:00. > :58:02.constituency and many others are voted out. If he had a more
:58:03. > :58:07.inclusive approach, politically, he can achieve for more. One of the
:58:08. > :58:13.issues raised in a conference in Swansea on Friday about Brexit was
:58:14. > :58:16.looking at the Autumn Statement, and Philip Hammond setting out quite a
:58:17. > :58:23.gloomy picture in terms of increasing borrowing, job losses
:58:24. > :58:27.because of Brexit, a ?60 million black hole in the economy. A
:58:28. > :58:32.question was put to Mark Reckless. If that turns out to be true, if
:58:33. > :58:35.Brexit turns out to be economically disastrous, would you change of
:58:36. > :58:38.mind? He seemed to suggest that he didn't think it would happen but if
:58:39. > :58:49.it did he would change his mind. Would you? It is a hypothetical but
:58:50. > :58:52.indulge me. He was responding to the budget office and he has responded
:58:53. > :58:55.that officially because that is in law and he have to make an
:58:56. > :59:00.observation of the predictions that they have made. Let's look at the
:59:01. > :59:06.actual figures that came out last week. The real figures that show the
:59:07. > :59:09.real economy performing well, creating quality jobs, record
:59:10. > :59:14.investment by businesses, more than all the experts predicted. We have
:59:15. > :59:19.not had the recession but everyone predicted when we have a referendum
:59:20. > :59:22.campaign. If people carry on talking about it, I am sure with the
:59:23. > :59:26.economic cycle we will get to the point that some of the remainder is
:59:27. > :59:31.want us to be in. That shaped the economy to be one that continues to
:59:32. > :59:37.create prosperity, jobs and opportunity. Those opportunities
:59:38. > :59:43.taking us forward in the Brexit negotiations can be achieved and can
:59:44. > :59:47.be... The UK Government can want to have its own way on the negotiations
:59:48. > :59:58.but it is a two-way street. The EU will have their own views. Looking
:59:59. > :00:03.ahead, and the ISS, a well-respected economic forecaster, DOB yard, the
:00:04. > :00:10.official forecasters, and Philip Hammond, all suggesting there could
:00:11. > :00:19.be a very bumpy road ahead. I recall those people predicting the same
:00:20. > :00:23.thing in the referendum. Of course there will be bumped on the road,
:00:24. > :00:26.that is the normal economic cycle. We have the Italian referendum next
:00:27. > :00:30.week which could potentially put out the Italian government. We have to
:00:31. > :00:35.grasp the opportunities and the real economy is powering ahead with
:00:36. > :00:39.record investment, job creation and confidence in people's ability to
:00:40. > :00:45.get on in life. We want a shape that through negotiations and we will.
:00:46. > :00:46.Thank you much. I'm sure we will return to this subject.
:00:47. > :00:50.Don't forget were @walespolitics on Twitter, but for now,
:00:51. > :00:58.diolch am wylio - time to go back to Andrew.
:00:59. > :01:01.have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to
:01:02. > :01:07.you. Is Theresa May serious
:01:08. > :01:09.about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's
:01:10. > :01:13.successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off
:01:14. > :01:41.a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the
:01:42. > :01:44.executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in
:01:45. > :01:48.the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if
:01:49. > :01:51.they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband
:01:52. > :02:01.proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She
:02:02. > :02:04.is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an
:02:05. > :02:08.apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up
:02:09. > :02:12.for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes
:02:13. > :02:15.back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and
:02:16. > :02:22.becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the
:02:23. > :02:25.country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures
:02:26. > :02:31.you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense
:02:32. > :02:35.of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her
:02:36. > :02:37.own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the
:02:38. > :02:45.board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback
:02:46. > :02:53.position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into
:02:54. > :02:57.some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever
:02:58. > :03:01.they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When
:03:02. > :03:05.you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the
:03:06. > :03:11.ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the
:03:12. > :03:17.company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you
:03:18. > :03:23.kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of
:03:24. > :03:28.that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about
:03:29. > :03:32.this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party
:03:33. > :03:37.conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government
:03:38. > :03:41.can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and
:03:42. > :03:44.Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the
:03:45. > :03:51.internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C
:03:52. > :03:55.Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is
:03:56. > :03:59.the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a
:04:00. > :04:03.report which came out with similar proposals, which were never
:04:04. > :04:09.implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business
:04:10. > :04:13.leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are
:04:14. > :04:18.problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess
:04:19. > :04:21.is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the
:04:22. > :04:26.implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some
:04:27. > :04:32.business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on
:04:33. > :04:35.the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it
:04:36. > :04:37.does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning
:04:38. > :04:43.ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a
:04:44. > :04:46.great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any
:04:47. > :04:51.suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners
:04:52. > :04:55.get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong
:04:56. > :05:00.with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the
:05:01. > :05:02.higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make
:05:03. > :05:08.that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it.
:05:09. > :05:11.Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There
:05:12. > :05:14.was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on
:05:15. > :05:20.boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But
:05:21. > :05:27.quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that
:05:28. > :05:29.was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering
:05:30. > :05:37.shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they
:05:38. > :05:41.hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic
:05:42. > :05:47.argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is
:05:48. > :05:51.that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to
:05:52. > :05:56.Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done
:05:57. > :06:01.it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is
:06:02. > :06:08.it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In
:06:09. > :06:13.Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of
:06:14. > :06:22.showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go
:06:23. > :06:27.with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result
:06:28. > :06:34.tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne
:06:35. > :06:38.Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next
:06:39. > :06:43.leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall
:06:44. > :06:47.and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul
:06:48. > :06:51.Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household
:06:52. > :06:57.name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and
:06:58. > :07:02.find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip
:07:03. > :07:10.together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If
:07:11. > :07:14.anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the
:07:15. > :07:19.thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It
:07:20. > :07:24.would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting
:07:25. > :07:31.Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North
:07:32. > :07:34.America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the
:07:35. > :07:39.chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the
:07:40. > :07:43.north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage.
:07:44. > :07:49.But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it.
:07:50. > :07:55.The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know
:07:56. > :07:58.the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would
:07:59. > :08:02.suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be
:08:03. > :08:06.honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result.
:08:07. > :08:13.Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call
:08:14. > :08:16.a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty
:08:17. > :08:22.Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it
:08:23. > :08:27.can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The
:08:28. > :08:34.number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which
:08:35. > :08:38.should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a
:08:39. > :08:42.debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and
:08:43. > :08:46.they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a
:08:47. > :08:50.powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But
:08:51. > :08:55.he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond
:08:56. > :09:00.in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it
:09:01. > :09:04.turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a
:09:05. > :09:10.by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will
:09:11. > :09:13.know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU
:09:14. > :09:19.referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping
:09:20. > :09:22.Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on
:09:23. > :09:27.for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage
:09:28. > :09:30.to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum
:09:31. > :09:38.despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the
:09:39. > :09:43.party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have
:09:44. > :09:47.absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit
:09:48. > :09:52.of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and
:09:53. > :09:58.people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand
:09:59. > :10:04.that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this
:10:05. > :10:12.one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a
:10:13. > :10:16.period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the
:10:17. > :10:22.Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near
:10:23. > :10:25.moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in
:10:26. > :10:30.this shapeless political world we are in are going to become
:10:31. > :10:33.significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night
:10:34. > :10:39.yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare.
:10:40. > :10:43.Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early
:10:44. > :10:48.hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I
:10:49. > :10:53.want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this
:10:54. > :10:57.morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually
:10:58. > :10:59.cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that
:11:00. > :11:10.all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and
:11:11. > :11:13.physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts,
:11:14. > :11:17.particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the
:11:18. > :11:21.mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that
:11:22. > :11:28.we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So
:11:29. > :11:31.economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his
:11:32. > :11:38.forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert
:11:39. > :11:43.forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50,
:11:44. > :11:48.which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You
:11:49. > :11:53.would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios,
:11:54. > :12:01.and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if
:12:02. > :12:04.governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the
:12:05. > :12:09.basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to
:12:10. > :12:15.go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast
:12:16. > :12:17.will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are
:12:18. > :12:23.navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it
:12:24. > :12:27.was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these
:12:28. > :12:34.forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put
:12:35. > :12:44.the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a
:12:45. > :12:47.clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up
:12:48. > :12:51.with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't
:12:52. > :12:56.trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who
:12:57. > :13:00.borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip
:13:01. > :13:04.Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence
:13:05. > :13:10.Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a
:13:11. > :13:14.huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically
:13:15. > :13:20.said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a
:13:21. > :13:25.very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a
:13:26. > :13:30.department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else
:13:31. > :13:33.thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are
:13:34. > :13:35.part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more
:13:36. > :13:37.Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One
:13:38. > :13:41.next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:42. > :13:52.it's the Sunday Politics.