:00:38. > :00:42.Commons Speaker John Bercow is accused of compromising his
:00:43. > :00:44.impartiality by revealing he voted Remain in last year's EU referendum.
:00:45. > :00:54.The EU Withdrawal Bill clears its first Parliamentary hurdle.
:00:55. > :00:56.But will the House of Lords be quite so accommodating?
:00:57. > :01:03.Labour's Leader in the Lords joins us live.
:01:04. > :01:08.And we report from Stoke-on-Trent ahead of a crucial by-election
:01:09. > :01:11.Later in the programme: Ukip is looking to give
:01:12. > :01:14.Neil Kinnock tells us where Jeremy Corbyn's
:01:15. > :01:16.gone wrong over Brexit, and the numbers are rising,
:01:17. > :01:18.so is there a problem with how Welsh Government
:01:19. > :01:33.And with me a political panel who frequently like to compromise
:01:34. > :01:39.Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Janan Ganesh.
:01:40. > :01:45.I'll be trying to keep them in order during the course of the programme.
:01:46. > :01:47.So, Commons Speaker John Bercow has insisted his ability
:01:48. > :01:54.to act impartially is not damaged by reports that he voted to Remain
:01:55. > :02:01.The Sunday Telegraph reveals that Speaker Bercow revealed his views
:02:02. > :02:03.in front of an audience of students at Reading University
:02:04. > :02:20.This may not be popular with some people in this audience -
:02:21. > :02:24.I thought it was better to stay in the European Union than not,
:02:25. > :02:28.partly for economic reason, being part of a big trade bloc,
:02:29. > :02:32.and partly because I think we're in a world of power blocs,
:02:33. > :02:34.and I think for all the weaknesses and deficiencies
:02:35. > :02:38.of the European Union, it is better to be part of that big
:02:39. > :02:48.Speaker Bercow speaking at Reading University earlier this month. Does
:02:49. > :02:54.he not care is this I get that impression, he knows perfectly well,
:02:55. > :02:57.it states he has to be particularly -- Parliamentary neural. Whether
:02:58. > :03:02.there are going to be enough votes to force him out, the question, the
:03:03. > :03:07.last speaker wept out with the 20 vote against him. You yes to have
:03:08. > :03:13.the command of the support across the House. There is a Deputy
:03:14. > :03:23.Speaker, waiting, who would be superb. I think even the people who
:03:24. > :03:28.pretend to support Macis have had enough -- Speaker Bercow have had
:03:29. > :03:32.enough of his ways. The reason I ask whether he care, he didn't just tell
:03:33. > :03:36.the students that he voted to Remain, he then gave them a running
:03:37. > :03:43.commentary on all the issues that will be part of the Brexit
:03:44. > :03:45.negotiations, workers' rights, immigration, trade policy, everyone
:03:46. > :03:51.maternity leave got a hat tip from him. He would be a very well
:03:52. > :03:56.prepared Brexit minister if attendance needs a colleague --
:03:57. > :04:00.David Davis needs a colleague. I don't think this story makes his
:04:01. > :04:04.position untenable, what does is the wired pattern of behaviour of
:04:05. > :04:12.excessive candour on his political views, going back years, this is a
:04:13. > :04:19.guy who when the Queen visited Parliament described her as theical
:04:20. > :04:23.lied scope Queen. He had a running argument with David Cameron. We know
:04:24. > :04:33.his views on Brexit, we know his views on Donald Trump. . He has
:04:34. > :04:38.given interviews, none of the views are illegitimate but the candour
:04:39. > :04:42.which they are expressed with is scrupulous. Given Lyndsay Hoyle is a
:04:43. > :04:47.class accuse. He is the Deputy Speaker. And a fairly ready
:04:48. > :04:52.replacement, whether there is more of a movement to say, maybe not
:04:53. > :04:56.force Bercow out but acknowledge he has had a few years in the job and
:04:57. > :05:02.the question of successor ship comes into play. Has he concluded he is
:05:03. > :05:06.untouchable? What I can definitely say, is that he is determined to
:05:07. > :05:10.fight this one out, and not go of his own volition, so if he goes he
:05:11. > :05:16.will have to be forced out. He wants to stay. Which will be tough. It
:05:17. > :05:20.will be tough. Likely as things stand. I would say this, I speak to
:05:21. > :05:24.someone who likes the way he has brought the House of Commons to
:05:25. > :05:28.life, held ministers to account, forced them into explain thing,
:05:29. > :05:32.whenever there is a topical issue you know it will be in the House of
:05:33. > :05:39.Commons. He has changed that. He has. Time has been courageous, Ied a
:05:40. > :05:46.mire the way he has been a speaker. I would say this, during the
:05:47. > :05:49.referendum campaign, he asked me Nick Clegg, and Peter Hitchens to
:05:50. > :05:53.debate Brexit if his constituency. It was a packed out meeting. He
:05:54. > :05:59.chaired it. I said don't you want to join in? He didn't. He showed no
:06:00. > :06:06.desire to join in, he was impartial. He goes out to universities and kind
:06:07. > :06:12.of demyth GCSEs Parliament by speaking to them in a way, he
:06:13. > :06:19.doesn't gets credit for it and stays on after and drinks with them.
:06:20. > :06:23.Sometimes he, you know, it is clearly a mistake to have gone into
:06:24. > :06:27.his views retrospectively on that referendum campaign, I don't think
:06:28. > :06:30.that, did he try and stop Article 50 from being triggered in the House of
:06:31. > :06:35.Commons? That would be a scandal. Even that would be beyond him.
:06:36. > :06:41.Briefly, yes or no, could you imagine Betty Boothroyd behaving
:06:42. > :06:45.like that? Not at all. None of the recent speakers I could imagine
:06:46. > :06:48.doing that. It is good he is different.
:06:49. > :06:52.The bill that will allow the government to trigger Article 50
:06:53. > :06:54.and begin Brexit negotiations was voted through
:06:55. > :06:58.Many MPs were in a difficult position - unsure whether to vote
:06:59. > :07:00.with their conscience, their constituency,
:07:01. > :07:03.Europe, once such a divisive issue for the Conservatives,
:07:04. > :07:05.is now causing major divisions inside the Labour Party.
:07:06. > :07:10.So, let's have a look what happened in a bit more detail:
:07:11. > :07:13.Thanks to academic research carried out since the referendum,
:07:14. > :07:15.we now have estimates of how each individual constituency voted.
:07:16. > :07:21.It's thought that 410 constituencies voted Leave.
:07:22. > :07:28.On Wednesday night, the EU Notification of Withdrawal Bill
:07:29. > :07:31.was voted through by the House of Commons.
:07:32. > :07:39.The bill left the Labour Party divided.
:07:40. > :07:42.Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs to respect the result
:07:43. > :07:44.of the referendum and vote for the government's bill -
:07:45. > :07:47.But 52 Labour MPs defied Mr Corbyn's thee-line whip
:07:48. > :08:03.That's about a fifth of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
:08:04. > :08:06.Of those 52 Labour MPs who voted against the bill,
:08:07. > :08:08.the majority, 45 of them, represent seats that voted Remain.
:08:09. > :08:10.However, seven Labour MPs voted against the Article 50 Bill,
:08:11. > :08:13.even though their constituents voted Leave in the referendum.
:08:14. > :08:14.The Conservative Party were much more united.
:08:15. > :08:17.The vast majority of Tory MPs, 320 of them, voted for the bill.
:08:18. > :08:20.Just one Conservative MP, Ken Clarke, voted against it.
:08:21. > :08:21.His constituency, Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire, voted Remain.
:08:22. > :08:24.The bill will now go to the House of Lords -
:08:25. > :08:38.peers will start debating it on Monday the 20th of February.
:08:39. > :08:40.Joining me now is Matthew Goodwin, politics professor at
:08:41. > :08:43.He's got a book out next month called
:08:44. > :08:45.Brexit: Why Britain Voted To Leave The European Union.
:08:46. > :08:53.Welcome to the programme. Has Brexit, how you voted in the
:08:54. > :08:57.referendum and your continuing attitudes toward it, is that now
:08:58. > :09:02.becoming the new dividing line in British politics? I think it
:09:03. > :09:06.certainly is contributing to a new dividing line, in western politics
:09:07. > :09:10.more generally, we know over the last ten years, that the old left
:09:11. > :09:14.and right division has been making way for a new division, between
:09:15. > :09:18.essentially social liberals and Conservative, and Brexit was a, an
:09:19. > :09:22.incident a moment that really reflected that new dividing line, so
:09:23. > :09:28.it wasn't just the case that Brexit has cut across Labour's base, it is
:09:29. > :09:34.that dividing line, that deeper division is cutting across social
:09:35. > :09:37.democracies more generally. Is there a possibility, no higher than that,
:09:38. > :09:42.that it will reShane our party politics? I think it is too early to
:09:43. > :09:46.know whether this is a fundamental long-term realignment. If we look at
:09:47. > :09:52.what is happening in local by-election, what is happening at
:09:53. > :09:59.by-elections, pictures a bit mixed but if you look at how some of the
:10:00. > :10:02.Labour vote is responding, I think that potentially reflects the
:10:03. > :10:06.possibility of a terminal decline for the Labour Party, it is going to
:10:07. > :10:11.be incredibly difficult for Labour to win these voters back, these are
:10:12. > :10:15.traditional working class, socially Conservative voters who are leaving
:10:16. > :10:19.the party, don't forget, since the 1997 general election. It is not
:10:20. > :10:24.just because of the referendum. If that was the case, Labour would
:10:25. > :10:28.become more a party of the Metropolitan areas, and less of a
:10:29. > :10:33.party outside of these area, is that what you are saying? What we are S
:10:34. > :10:38.seeing across the west can social democracy that retrenchment into the
:10:39. > :10:42.cosmopolitan, Metropolitan city area, university towns, you can
:10:43. > :10:46.seeing in many European states populist right parties filling the
:10:47. > :10:52.traditional socialist area, why are they doing that? Because they are
:10:53. > :10:56.offering two message, economic and cultural protectionism. Social
:10:57. > :10:59.Democrats are clinging to that economic protectionism but not
:11:00. > :11:03.saying much about migration and multiculturalism and that sort of
:11:04. > :11:06.stuff. Are there deeper forces at work than Jeremy Corbyn? He often
:11:07. > :11:10.gets the blame for what is happening to the Labour Party now, but if you
:11:11. > :11:18.look the way the Greek socialist party has been wiped out. The German
:11:19. > :11:21.Social Democrats are in trouble. The Italian socialist party has lost a
:11:22. > :11:26.referendum. The French socialist are coming close to being wiped out on
:11:27. > :11:31.April 23rd, Labour's problems, are part of a much wider problem of
:11:32. > :11:35.social democracy S Jeremy Corbyn is a surface problem, what I mean by
:11:36. > :11:39.that is you could replace him tosh with another leader, they would
:11:40. > :11:45.still have this fundamental tension within the electorate. They are
:11:46. > :11:48.trying to appeal to two differenter reconcilable groups of voters who
:11:49. > :11:53.think differently about the key issues of the day. It is very
:11:54. > :11:59.difficult for any centre left party now to assemble the kinds of
:12:00. > :12:03.coalitionses we saw in the '90s with Clinton and Blair and Schroeder.
:12:04. > :12:08.Those days are gone. Does that explain why it is now Labour, rather
:12:09. > :12:12.than the Conservatives, historically the party divided over the European
:12:13. > :12:18.Union, does all of that help to explain why its Labour that now
:12:19. > :12:24.seems, disunited over the EU? I think so, I think also that the
:12:25. > :12:28.issue of Brexit, and the EU, is so immatly wrapped up with that issue
:12:29. > :12:33.of immigration, if you look at who has been abandoned Labour since 2015
:12:34. > :12:38.or the late 90s, the one thing those voters share is a rejection of the
:12:39. > :12:43.so-called liberal consensus on EU membership and mass immigration. It
:12:44. > :12:47.is difficult for any Labour lead eer co-bin or Clive Lewis on Dan Jarvis,
:12:48. > :12:52.to bring those voters back unless they are going to move on that
:12:53. > :12:56.cultural terrain. If they are not, they may not go to Ukip, they might
:12:57. > :12:58.go to somewhere more difficult for Labour which is political apathy.
:12:59. > :13:01.Thank you for that. Attention now shifts to the House
:13:02. > :13:04.of Lords where peers will begin scrutinising the EU Withdrawal Bill
:13:05. > :13:06.in just over a week. Brexit Secretary David Davis urged
:13:07. > :13:09.the Lords "to do its patriotic duty" and resist the urge to tinker
:13:10. > :13:11.with the legislation. Former minister Oliver Letwin
:13:12. > :13:13.went one further - mooting the possibility
:13:14. > :13:15.of the abolition of the Lords if it sought to frustrate
:13:16. > :13:18.the bill in any way. Here he is posing the question
:13:19. > :13:26.in the Commons on Thursday. Would he find time, in government
:13:27. > :13:29.time for a debate, should the other place seek to delay beyond the end
:13:30. > :13:32.of March the passage of our accession to Article 50, for this
:13:33. > :13:35.House to discuss the possibility of either the abolition or full-scale
:13:36. > :13:45.reform of the other place? And Oliver Letwin joins
:13:46. > :13:58.me now from Dorset. Welcome back to the programme Mr Let
:13:59. > :14:02.win. Before we come on to the Lord's, can I get your thoughts on a
:14:03. > :14:06.matter that has been making the news this morning and John Bercow's
:14:07. > :14:10.remarks about being a remain voter an giving something of a running
:14:11. > :14:16.commentary on various Brexit issues, has he sqloefr stepped the mark as
:14:17. > :14:23.speaker? -- overstepped the mark. I think this is slightly a fuss about
:14:24. > :14:27.nothing. Every person who thinks about politics will have had some
:14:28. > :14:30.opinion about great matters like Brexit, and I really don't see any
:14:31. > :14:37.particular reason why his opinion shouldn't be known after the fact.
:14:38. > :14:41.I, I was there throughout the five days of the Brexit debate, and I
:14:42. > :14:46.have to say, I thought he was pretty scrupulously fair in the way he
:14:47. > :14:49.handled the House, so, I, I don't really share the view that there is
:14:50. > :14:53.some terrible thing that has been revealed this weekend. Let me come
:14:54. > :14:59.on to what we are here to talk about, which is the Lords. Why have
:15:00. > :15:04.you raised the threat of the abolition of the Lord for doing its
:15:05. > :15:12.job of scrutinising what is coming out the Commons? Well, you know,
:15:13. > :15:16.Andrew, this question of the job of the House of Lords and scrutiny, has
:15:17. > :15:21.to be looked at carefully. There are all sorts of bills that come out the
:15:22. > :15:26.House of Commons which are detailed things that relate to, finance, and
:15:27. > :15:30.expenditure, and the criminal law, and all that sort of thing, and all
:15:31. > :15:35.of that, I admire the work that the House of Lords does, as you say
:15:36. > :15:40.scrutinising and we shouldn't use that word loosely, it means looking
:15:41. > :15:46.carefully at the detail, line by line of complicated legislation,
:15:47. > :15:50.hundreds of Paps in some cases, and spotting, using the considerable
:15:51. > :15:54.expertise many, not all be many of the peers have, in any given field,
:15:55. > :15:58.to identify things where the Commons has got it wrong in the sense that
:15:59. > :16:02.the legislation wouldn't achieve what the Government of the day is
:16:03. > :16:06.seeking to make it achieve. That is a serious proper role for an Upper
:16:07. > :16:11.House and the House of Lords performs it pretty
:16:12. > :16:21.Now this is a very different case. This is a two clause bill. The first
:16:22. > :16:27.clause which is the operative clause says the Prime Minister should go
:16:28. > :16:34.ahead and sign... I understand all that. We haven't got that much time,
:16:35. > :16:40.this is becoming a monologue. There is nothing to scrutinise, Andrew.
:16:41. > :16:45.There were plenty of amendments put before the Commons, none of them got
:16:46. > :16:49.through, it is true. There are eight Labour amendments in the Lords, are
:16:50. > :16:54.you resigned to this bill coming back to the Commons with amendments?
:16:55. > :16:58.No, it should not come back with amendments. There were hundreds of
:16:59. > :17:01.amendments literally put down in the House of Commons, they were all
:17:02. > :17:06.drunk. They were all trying one way or another to derail the process.
:17:07. > :17:13.This is a binary issue, should Theresa May sign the withdrawal or
:17:14. > :17:18.not? What should the Commons do? The Commons has now voted in favour of
:17:19. > :17:27.it. Node do should tolerate and unelected chamber forcing the
:17:28. > :17:31.British people... The people voted in a referendum and the Commons
:17:32. > :17:36.voted. The matter is now signed and sealed and should not be derailed by
:17:37. > :17:41.the House of Lords. On Labour amendment wants confirmation that
:17:42. > :17:44.when it is done, the potential Brexit agreement will be put before
:17:45. > :17:49.parliament before any vote in the European Parliament, that has been
:17:50. > :17:54.an agreed principle, what is wrong with that amendments? The government
:17:55. > :17:58.has already agreed there will be a vote, but actually, what the
:17:59. > :18:03.amendments were seeking was to give the Commons a further vote on
:18:04. > :18:06.whether we actually leave or not. That is already decided. Neither the
:18:07. > :18:12.House of Lords nor anybody else has a right in my view, despite the fact
:18:13. > :18:17.I was a remain, to what the will of the British people. Nobody should
:18:18. > :18:21.think an unelected chamber should now try to change the course of
:18:22. > :18:26.British history by asserting amendments in a very effective on
:18:27. > :18:29.clause bill which says go ahead and trigger Article 50. Are you
:18:30. > :18:33.concerned that amendments by the Lords which would then have to go
:18:34. > :18:40.back to the Commons for consideration, are you concerned
:18:41. > :18:45.that could derail or delay the Prime Minister's timetable for Article 50?
:18:46. > :18:49.Yes, exactly. That would be the result of a prolonged bout of
:18:50. > :18:53.ping-pong between the two houses, or much worse, if the House of Lords
:18:54. > :18:58.failed to give way and the Parliament act had to be used. It
:18:59. > :19:01.would really be intolerable. It is not good for our country. Those of
:19:02. > :19:07.us who voted remain would prefer for that not to happen. The whole
:19:08. > :19:12.country -- it is important for the whole country that this happens in a
:19:13. > :19:17.rapid way and allowing the government free rein to negotiate,
:19:18. > :19:21.that is surely in all our advantages? Deed think any efforts
:19:22. > :19:26.to abolish the House of Lords, an issue you have raised, does that
:19:27. > :19:33.make it easier because your friend David Cameron stuffed the upper
:19:34. > :19:37.chamber with donors, lapdogs and lingerie designers? I was among
:19:38. > :19:41.those who advocated for many years wholesale reform of the House of
:19:42. > :19:45.Lords, to turn it into a serious elected second chamber. I think we
:19:46. > :19:50.should have an upper house which commands legitimacy. This is a
:19:51. > :19:55.second issue. Here we have not got such a House and it seems to be very
:19:56. > :19:59.clear that it should not seek to derail on delay the action which has
:20:00. > :20:04.been mandated by the referendum, agreed by the House of Commons, and
:20:05. > :20:09.what we want to see now is a smooth orderly effect for this bill, so it
:20:10. > :20:14.becomes law and Theresa May can go ahead and negotiate on our behalf.
:20:15. > :20:17.One more question on the process, if the Lords to amend the bill and it
:20:18. > :20:24.goes back to the Commons and the Commons sends these amendments back
:20:25. > :20:30.again, take them out, how long could this ping-pong between the two
:20:31. > :20:35.chambers go on in your experience? It is a very, very interesting and
:20:36. > :20:39.complicated question with the clerks of the two ends of the Palace of
:20:40. > :20:44.Westminster not always agreeing about this. But through certain
:20:45. > :20:48.machinations of slightly changing amendments as they go, in my
:20:49. > :20:51.experience this could carry on for an awful long time if clever people,
:20:52. > :20:54.and there are plenty of clever people in the House of Lords, want
:20:55. > :20:59.to do that and that is precisely why I think we should not tolerate it.
:21:00. > :21:02.Oliver Letwin, thank you for joining us from Dorset.
:21:03. > :21:06.Joining me now is Labour's Leader in the House of Lords, Angela Smith.
:21:07. > :21:12.The Commons passed this bill without any amendments... There were
:21:13. > :21:18.changes, the government did concede a couple of points. But the
:21:19. > :21:23.amendments did not go through. Does that put pressure on the Lords to do
:21:24. > :21:26.the same? I think the Lords always feels under pressure to do the right
:21:27. > :21:33.thing. When I heard Oliver Letwin, I did not know whether to laugh or
:21:34. > :21:38.cry. We will not frustrate, we will not wreck, we will not sabotage. We
:21:39. > :21:42.will do what David Davis said was our patriotic duty. We will
:21:43. > :21:46.scrutinise the bill. We have at amendments from the Labour Party. We
:21:47. > :21:49.will look at those. It depends on the government response if we vote
:21:50. > :21:54.on those. There could be amendments asking the Commons to look again.
:21:55. > :22:00.That is normally what we do. It is not the wrong thing to do. But if
:22:01. > :22:04.you do this and make amendments, it then goes back to the Commons. If
:22:05. > :22:08.the Commons rejects the Lords' amendments, what do you think will
:22:09. > :22:14.happen? I do not see any extended ping-pong at all. It is perfectly
:22:15. > :22:18.legitimate. We are not talking about the outcome of negotiations, we are
:22:19. > :22:22.talking about the process. The process of engaging with Parliament
:22:23. > :22:25.and reporting to Parliament. It would be totally responsible for
:22:26. > :22:28.Parliament to say, off you go, Theresa May, have two years of
:22:29. > :22:33.negotiation and come back and talk to us at the end. The has to be a
:22:34. > :22:37.process where the government can use the expertise of parliament to get
:22:38. > :22:43.this right. But if you do put in some amendments, it has to go back
:22:44. > :22:46.to the Commons, they may well say they don't want those amendments and
:22:47. > :22:51.it may go back to the Lords, could that at the very least delay the
:22:52. > :22:56.Prime Minister's Brexit timetable? I don't think so. She said the end of
:22:57. > :23:00.March. Time has been built in for all the normal processes. I think
:23:01. > :23:04.Oliver Letwin and others are getting a bit overexcited. This is the
:23:05. > :23:07.normal process. Unless the government get things right the
:23:08. > :23:12.first time every time, the has to be this kind of process. These are
:23:13. > :23:16.reasonable amendments. This is a Labour amendment we are talking
:23:17. > :23:29.about here, you want a vote in the UK Parliament before any
:23:30. > :23:34.vote in the European Parliament if and when the Brexit deal is done,
:23:35. > :23:36.the Commons and the Lords get to vote on it first. But the government
:23:37. > :23:40.I think have already agreed to that so what is the point? It needs to be
:23:41. > :23:43.on the face of the bill. It is over well if the government have agreed
:23:44. > :23:47.it. Lord dubs had an agreement about child and look what happened to
:23:48. > :23:52.that. Does not sound as if you would go to the wire on that? It is
:23:53. > :23:57.important it is not just about the vote at the end, you have the
:23:58. > :24:03.ongoing engagement. If it is going to be a bad deal, we need to know
:24:04. > :24:08.long before we get to that stage? Is it something you would hold out for?
:24:09. > :24:13.I don't know yet. It is about how the House of Lords votes, Labour do
:24:14. > :24:16.not have a majority, we never had a majority in the House of Lords when
:24:17. > :24:22.we were in government. It is wrong to suggest that we cannot debate
:24:23. > :24:28.these issues... I don't think anyone is suggesting that. They are. It is
:24:29. > :24:31.not unfair to ask the government to ask the House of Commons to look
:24:32. > :24:35.again to look at those issues if that is what the House of Lords
:24:36. > :24:40.decides. Bit of the House of Commons says we looked, we are sticking with
:24:41. > :24:44.what we voted for, we rejected every amendment by at least 30 votes on
:24:45. > :24:49.all occasions, the Lords then have to buckle, is that what you are
:24:50. > :24:53.saying? Some point I think it is clear the House of Commons have to
:24:54. > :24:57.have its say. I think it is inconceivable that having had a
:24:58. > :25:02.referendum, which was not overwhelming, but it was a clear
:25:03. > :25:04.result, the House of Lords has no intention of sabotaging that but
:25:05. > :25:09.there are things which are not good about the process that we think
:25:10. > :25:13.could be improved. We have not just have the result of the referendum
:25:14. > :25:19.which voted to leave, but we have had the will of the Commons that
:25:20. > :25:25.passed this legislation by a majority of 372. And I am not
:25:26. > :25:30.contesting that for a second! Could you cite a precedent for the upper
:25:31. > :25:34.house amending a bill which passed by 372 votes in the Commons? Quite
:25:35. > :25:37.other things will come to the House of Lords with big majorities from
:25:38. > :25:42.the Commons and quite often the amendments we get, with that then
:25:43. > :25:47.forward and the government sees it could do better. Though not
:25:48. > :25:50.necessarily saying the government has got things wrong, but they could
:25:51. > :25:55.do things better. That happens time and time again and it is not
:25:56. > :26:00.unusual. If you were seen to thwart the referendum result and the vote
:26:01. > :26:05.in the Commons, the elected chamber of parliament, is the threat of
:26:06. > :26:09.abolition hanging over you? I think that is really ridiculous and
:26:10. > :26:11.absolute nonsense. We are not tying to what the decision of the House of
:26:12. > :26:16.Commons, we are trying to do better. It is a bit rich of the government
:26:17. > :26:21.and Oliver Letwin to complain about getting things through in time when
:26:22. > :26:25.the House of Commons spent -- the government spent three months trying
:26:26. > :26:28.to debate this issue. There have been some strong questions put to
:26:29. > :26:32.the government from the House of Lords on all sides. I don't know if
:26:33. > :26:41.the amendments have been passed or not. I think we have a good case for
:26:42. > :26:48.the government to get debate the point. If a traditional MP like
:26:49. > :26:52.Oliver Letwin is calling for the abolition of the hereditary and
:26:53. > :26:55.appointed chamber, and the Labour person like yourself was trying to
:26:56. > :27:01.defend that, that would not be a sustainable position, I would
:27:02. > :27:04.suggest! We saw this with the Strathclyde report as well, this is
:27:05. > :27:07.a government like no other. It is the first Conservative government in
:27:08. > :27:12.history not to have an automatic majority. They do not like challenge
:27:13. > :27:18.or scrutiny. But you get my point, Labour cannot go to the wire in
:27:19. > :27:20.defending and an elected second chamber, can it? Actually, Labour
:27:21. > :27:24.can go to the wire in saying the government does not get it right
:27:25. > :27:31.every time. House of Lords is going to normal processes and people like
:27:32. > :27:34.Oliver Letwin are really getting a little bit over excited, and people
:27:35. > :27:41.who have been anonymously briefing. Who has been anonymously briefing? I
:27:42. > :27:44.don't know, they are anonymous! I understand people want to make
:27:45. > :27:48.amendments, that is the role of the House of Lords, but can I just for
:27:49. > :27:52.the avoidance of doubt, is it still your case that whatever amendments
:27:53. > :27:58.to make, whatever may go back and forward, it is not your intention to
:27:59. > :28:03.stop Article 50 being triggered by the end of March? I have been saying
:28:04. > :28:06.that, exactly that for months and months and months. It is
:28:07. > :28:10.inconceivable that an unelected House will thwart the will of the
:28:11. > :28:13.House of Commons and a referendum on this issue. But that does not mean
:28:14. > :28:18.we will be bullied by Oliver Letwin and others. But the triggering will
:28:19. > :28:24.happen by the end of March? I very much suspect so unless Theresa May
:28:25. > :28:27.has second thoughts, I suspect that will happen. Thank you.
:28:28. > :28:29.Now, just because it's parliamentary recess next week
:28:30. > :28:33.There are two by-elections round the corner -
:28:34. > :28:35.one in Copeland, and another in Stoke-on-Trent Central
:28:36. > :28:36.where the former Shadow Education Secretary,
:28:37. > :28:39.Tristram Hunt, vacated his seat to take up a role
:28:40. > :28:42.as Director of the Victoria Albert Museum in London.
:28:43. > :28:44.But Labour are facing a fight to hold onto the constituency
:28:45. > :28:50.Seconds away, Ukip's new leader has stepped into the ring
:28:51. > :28:53.as their candidate in a by-election bout to see
:28:54. > :29:00.At the last election Ukip came second to Labour here
:29:01. > :29:05.But now they are confident they can land a knockout blow,
:29:06. > :29:11.because this place is packed with people that voted to leave the EU.
:29:12. > :29:15.70% of people voted to leave the European Union.
:29:16. > :29:22.I'm the only candidate standing in this election
:29:23. > :29:25.who is a true Brexiteer, who has always campaigned to leave
:29:26. > :29:28.the EU and therefore I believe I would be the best person
:29:29. > :29:31.But he has had to fight off allegations
:29:32. > :29:33.he wasn't living in the constituency when he entered the contest.
:29:34. > :29:37.Explain to me what is going on with this issue about your house?
:29:38. > :29:39.Well, we took up the lease the day before nominations.
:29:40. > :29:42.Everything we've done is perfectly legal and within the law.
:29:43. > :29:47.The Labour Party are trying to get off the real issues in this election
:29:48. > :29:54.and focus on something which is banal nonsense.
:29:55. > :29:59.And there's been trouble as well for the Labour contender.
:30:00. > :30:02.He's been labelled a Remoaner after he sent a series
:30:03. > :30:04.of anti-Brexit tweets, filled with words
:30:05. > :30:15.I can't believe I'm about to ask this question in a nursery
:30:16. > :30:18.on a Sunday morning TV programme, but did you really tweet that
:30:19. > :30:22.I tweeted many things about Brexit, that's tweet is out there.
:30:23. > :30:25.It was done quite after the referendum result and it
:30:26. > :30:28.was my way of showing my frustration at the fact that months
:30:29. > :30:33.after the result we hadn't had anything from the government.
:30:34. > :30:35.Theresa May had failed to produce any plan,
:30:36. > :30:37.she had failed to give any meaningful statement
:30:38. > :30:39.about what Brexit meant other than bland statements
:30:40. > :30:42.about Brexit is Brexit, and it's a hard Brexit, or a soft Brexit.
:30:43. > :30:46.The context of it was it was out of frustration.
:30:47. > :30:50.So you didn't mean to insult the 70% of the people who live here
:30:51. > :30:53.I never mean to insult anybody and you know,
:30:54. > :30:56.I've made it quite clear, if I'm elected as the member
:30:57. > :30:58.of Parliament for Stoke-on-Trent Central, I will absolutely respect
:30:59. > :31:00.the wishes of the people of Stoke Central.
:31:01. > :31:04.I will make sure my vote in parliament is to trigger Article 50.
:31:05. > :31:06.While the Tories' man has done little bit of rebranding too.
:31:07. > :31:10.I voted Remain and I've been open about that, but my top priority
:31:11. > :31:12.is about the economy and to ensure we still have an
:31:13. > :31:16.Theresa May has set out clear proposal to ensure we develop
:31:17. > :31:26.a trade relationship with Europe and make that a success.
:31:27. > :31:29.It means the Lib Dems and the Greens are the ones battling Brexit.
:31:30. > :31:31.Well, when the Lib Dem candidate is actually here.
:31:32. > :31:37.The candidate is a consultant cardiologist.
:31:38. > :31:40.He is actually at work today doing very important heart surgery.
:31:41. > :31:43.He will be back tomorrow, back on the campaign trail working hard.
:31:44. > :31:46.30% of people voted to Remain and nobody else
:31:47. > :31:50.is representing them, so, you know, it is still a live issue.
:31:51. > :31:52.It is still something people care about.
:31:53. > :31:54.We are only at the start of the Article 50 process
:31:55. > :32:00.We are very a clear that we are standing up for those
:32:01. > :32:03.who want to remain in the single market, who want to protect jobs
:32:04. > :32:08.Labour have taken people for granted in this area for a great many years.
:32:09. > :32:10.Ukip, I'm afraid, all Ukip can offer to politics is division.
:32:11. > :32:13.I've covered a lot of by-elections where Ukip have come second.
:32:14. > :32:16.We'll find out if they really got Labour on the ropes this
:32:17. > :32:35.And here is a full list of all the candidates standing
:32:36. > :32:46.in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.
:32:47. > :32:55.They do atract lots of candidates. You can get that on the BBC website
:32:56. > :33:03.as well. I was trying to think back, here we have the main opposition
:33:04. > :33:05.party defending two seats in by-elections in the midterm of a
:33:06. > :33:12.government. All the speculation is where the
:33:13. > :33:17.opposition party can hold on, that is unprecedented. I can't give of an
:33:18. > :33:23.equivalent. You wouldn't just expect them to win seats they have held
:33:24. > :33:29.traditionally, you would expect hem to make inroads into seats held by
:33:30. > :33:33.the other party, I wonder if they fail to hold on to just one of
:33:34. > :33:38.these, whether it accelerates the momentum and criticism of the
:33:39. > :33:42.leadership of the moment. I think they are interesting constituencies.
:33:43. > :33:48.Matthew good win was talking about the left win coalition over the
:33:49. > :33:55.years, almost being too broad for its own good, including places like
:33:56. > :34:00.Primrose Hill and Hackney. Big university towns in Manchester,
:34:01. > :34:10.Bristol. Diverse ethnically and included places like Stoke which are
:34:11. > :34:14.more Conservative. With a small c. Less economically well-off, more
:34:15. > :34:18.diverse, can the left hang on to both bits of country. Recent
:34:19. > :34:22.evidence suggests it cannot and the opportunity for Ukip is to pick up
:34:23. > :34:26.the second of those two types of community, the Stokes and the cope
:34:27. > :34:29.lands. That what makes the by-elections interest I would
:34:30. > :34:34.suggest. It is not just about Mr Corbyn's future about which we hear
:34:35. > :34:38.too much, it is about this traditional Labour coalition, can it
:34:39. > :34:43.still survive, particularly in places like Stoke? Europe clearly is
:34:44. > :34:50.a test. I think it's a myth by the way that Labour are only split now,
:34:51. > :34:54.over Europe and it has always been a Tory problem, last time I was on I
:34:55. > :35:01.mentioned it. That is why we had a referendum in 75. That is why they
:35:02. > :35:06.had a round then. But they were in chaos behind the scenes over what
:35:07. > :35:11.they thought about the euro, skillful leadership can paper over
:35:12. > :35:15.the cracks, and to address the wider issue of whether we are now in an
:35:16. > :35:20.era where left right issues have disappeared, and there is more of a
:35:21. > :35:27.regional divide, if you take Europe out of the equation which you can't,
:35:28. > :35:31.but if you were able to, issues about health, transport housing do
:35:32. > :35:36.split more left-right than a regional divide, so I think there is
:35:37. > :35:42.still fundamental left-right issues, but Europe isn't one of them and
:35:43. > :35:45.Europe has to be managed by a Labour leader skill fully and evidently
:35:46. > :35:51.that hasn't happened now. How would you see the by-elections in the
:35:52. > :35:55.current political context? Labour should be walking them, it should be
:35:56. > :35:57.a sign of the March of the Labour Party taking on the current
:35:58. > :36:01.Conservative Government. I don't think they raise any questions about
:36:02. > :36:04.Corbyn's leadership because the people who put him in don't think
:36:05. > :36:10.that winning elections matter, you have to remember this will be the
:36:11. > :36:14.mainstream media, it will be our fault why any of those Labour
:36:15. > :36:18.candidates don't win, the thing that is interesting is whether there is
:36:19. > :36:21.is a role for Ukip. The argument after the referendum was Ukip has
:36:22. > :36:27.done its job, it got the referendum, nothing to see here, I remember
:36:28. > :36:34.speaking to put a Nuttall before he was Ukip leader, on the day after
:36:35. > :36:38.the battle and he said this is Year Zero, where Ukip starts now, and
:36:39. > :36:41.this, and this is the interesting thing, does, do we see this one
:36:42. > :36:46.particular party having a role in the future? And I think it is all to
:36:47. > :36:51.play for, they could not not have stood in this seat. They have to win
:36:52. > :36:54.it to be an electoral force. The Labour candidate in Copeland has
:36:55. > :36:58.made the NHS the issue for her in this, that goes into the left-right,
:36:59. > :37:04.are we spending enough, are we not? That will be a test of what you were
:37:05. > :37:07.saying to see if traditional left-right issue, which at the
:37:08. > :37:10.moment would play Labour's way I would suggest, are big enough to
:37:11. > :37:15.overcome all the things you have been talking about and Matthew has
:37:16. > :37:18.been talking about. Maybe at this particular junction they are not,
:37:19. > :37:25.but I don't think any of those issues will go away, and that is why
:37:26. > :37:31.I question whether we are see the end of a historic left-right divide.
:37:32. > :37:33.At the moment with Europe so prominent, clearly these
:37:34. > :37:37.by-elections are unusual. And they will be a test of leadership for
:37:38. > :37:41.Theresa May in the coming months if not at the moment, as they have been
:37:42. > :37:46.in a way that he hasn't risen to, for the Labour leader.
:37:47. > :37:50.We will be leave on BBC One on the night, February 23rd off back of
:37:51. > :37:52.this week, we will bring you the result of both these crucial
:37:53. > :37:56.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:57. > :37:58.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:37:59. > :38:09.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.
:38:10. > :38:11.Hello, and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:38:12. > :38:15.Coming up, could Wales learn from Canada in how
:38:16. > :38:18.we help homeless people, and the new Shadow Welsh Secretary
:38:19. > :38:24.tells me why Labour needs to pull together and back Jeremy Corbyn.
:38:25. > :38:27.But first one of his predecessors has told us he's made a "strategic
:38:28. > :38:32.Lord Kinnock led the party for nearly ten years and is a former
:38:33. > :38:36.He says Mr Corbyn has managed to turn Tory divisions over
:38:37. > :38:40.Europe into a series of difficulties for Labour.
:38:41. > :38:43.With his extensive experience of Brussels, our reporter
:38:44. > :38:47.Bethan James asked him how long he thought the negotiations
:38:48. > :38:52.The possibility of negotiating a comprehensive deal of the kind
:38:53. > :38:55.that this country really does need within two years is unthinkable.
:38:56. > :39:05.And I think that people who talk about ten years
:39:06. > :39:17.You have a considerable amount of experience in Brussels, how
:39:18. > :39:23.The first instinct is, of course, most British people
:39:24. > :39:26.working in the institutions of the European Union,
:39:27. > :39:30.and just about everybody else, they are appalled.
:39:31. > :39:35.But that's not going to get in the way of them
:39:36. > :39:40.doing a professional job in terms of negotiations.
:39:41. > :39:44.They will do the job in a very workable way that could mean,
:39:45. > :39:50.of course, very prolonged processes, simply because a great deal
:39:51. > :39:54.of minute detail as well as great principles are involved.
:39:55. > :39:58.I've undertaken international trade negotiations myself.
:39:59. > :40:01.I negotiated the transport agreement in aviation, rail and road
:40:02. > :40:13.So despite the grand between leaders of the countries,
:40:14. > :40:16.do you think it inevitably, you will find ourselves having
:40:17. > :40:23.About three o'clock in the morning meeting when everybody comes
:40:24. > :40:29.Sometimes it's four, half past four in the morning.
:40:30. > :40:37.There is a real problem, however, and it's already apparent.
:40:38. > :40:43.Mrs May has said already, repeatedly, that they want to be
:40:44. > :40:48.best friends with the European Union.
:40:49. > :40:53.However, at the same time they've done that they've said that
:40:54. > :40:56.if we don't get our way we will adopt an alternative
:40:57. > :40:59.economic model, which everybody knows means they would try to turn
:41:00. > :41:08.it into a kind of offshore European tax haven.
:41:09. > :41:13.A sort of Cayman on the English Channel.
:41:14. > :41:20.Now, in terms of trying to win friends and influence people,
:41:21. > :41:27.And the second thing is, she is also said that she is quite
:41:28. > :41:34.Now, that's not a great negotiating stance.
:41:35. > :41:38.If you are trying to put an emphasis on positive possibilities,
:41:39. > :41:41.as she has in one part of vocabulary, you stick with that.
:41:42. > :41:46.If, eventually, conditions become intolerable, then there is no
:41:47. > :41:49.inevitable compromise at three o'clock in the morning.
:41:50. > :41:56.But you don't announce it beforehand, not least
:41:57. > :41:59.because if you do then the calendar will do the work of the other side.
:42:00. > :42:04.If you say that our final threat is we will walk away.
:42:05. > :42:08.The art in any way infuriated, by the stance taken in negotiations,
:42:09. > :42:16.they can not really be blamed for saying, OK, we'll just
:42:17. > :42:24.We'll let the deadline come and see how you deal with that.
:42:25. > :42:30.When you are in negotiations you're not playing conkers.
:42:31. > :42:33.You yourself have said, and Lord Hain has said,
:42:34. > :42:40.that poorer areas will be hit by Brexit whereas areas in Wales,
:42:41. > :42:54.but those are the very areas that voted to leave.
:42:55. > :42:57.Surely the srgument, their plight is a valid one?
:42:58. > :43:00.I've spoken, as you would expect, to hundreds of people
:43:01. > :43:06.Left behind, disadvantaged by the gigantic sweep of change that
:43:07. > :43:07.overtaken industrial and rural Wales, for instance,
:43:08. > :43:13.Now, the calculation that people have now made
:43:14. > :43:20.is whether they would be advantaged or disadvantaged by Brexit.
:43:21. > :43:24.Given the realities relating to the single market,
:43:25. > :43:28.to the forms of migration you've got, and to inward investment.
:43:29. > :43:32.That's not even mentioning the ?300 million a year that we get
:43:33. > :43:38.from European funding those in public culture and regional
:43:39. > :43:44.But it is tricky politically for MPs particularly,
:43:45. > :43:47.like your son, for example, the area you once
:43:48. > :43:56.And those MPs feel that they have too no vote to trigger article 50,
:43:57. > :44:01.because they are representing the will of those people.
:44:02. > :44:03.How would you vote if you were in the Commons now?
:44:04. > :44:06.I would have voted the same way as the majority did.
:44:07. > :44:09.I think that the Labour leader made a strategic error in not saying
:44:10. > :44:13.there should be a free vote, so that members of Parliament
:44:14. > :44:19.could reflect the vote in the areas that they represent.
:44:20. > :44:25.And then, simultaneously, a focus really hard on what the conditions
:44:26. > :44:33.Any disadvantage that is accrued to the British economy will be felt
:44:34. > :44:38.most by the people in the least secure economic position,
:44:39. > :44:45.How do you think the present leader is handling Brexit?
:44:46. > :44:53.I don't think it's being handled, actually.
:44:54. > :44:58.I think that the one really seriously useful thing that
:44:59. > :45:04.he's done is to appoint the Brexit spokesman.
:45:05. > :45:09.Keir Starmer is a very effective forensic lawyer,
:45:10. > :45:15.of skill necessary and the kind of commitment necessary to make
:45:16. > :45:19.the rational arguments in the House of Commons.
:45:20. > :45:28.Beyond that, what potentially could have been a serious problem
:45:29. > :45:33.for the Conservative Party, because of the deep divisions
:45:34. > :45:38.in our party over Europe, I mean, they've lasted 40 years
:45:39. > :45:42.and they are very deep denial, has actually turned, because of the...
:45:43. > :45:50.Rather ineffectual handling of the issue by the leadership
:45:51. > :45:54.of the Labour Party, into a series of difficulties
:45:55. > :46:00.Naturally, since the Labour Party is my first commitment on my first
:46:01. > :46:03.love, other than my family and my country, and I
:46:04. > :46:17.How then does the leadership ensure, what should Jeremy Corbyn be doing
:46:18. > :46:21.to ensure that the Labour Party survives this?
:46:22. > :46:23.Well, he showed, as well as politically, almost physically,
:46:24. > :46:28.demonstrate his commitment to the Solidarity, the Comradeship,
:46:29. > :46:36.the unity of the Labour Party by making strong, salient arguments
:46:37. > :46:42.himself about the need to safeguard the well-being
:46:43. > :46:45.of the British people, particularly those who are
:46:46. > :46:53.And if he did that, in a distinctive, assertive,
:46:54. > :46:59.way a passionate way if you like, with the real substance.
:47:00. > :47:03.Then I think you'd see people say, yes, when the call came,
:47:04. > :47:06.when he was up against it, and when he had his back
:47:07. > :47:09.to the ropes, he came back fighting and made clear,
:47:10. > :47:12.forceful arguments that persuade us...
:47:13. > :47:19.I hope, I mean, he's been elected leader.
:47:20. > :47:22.And if you are a leader, that's what you've got to do.
:47:23. > :47:28.Every minute of the day, and the night, come to that.
:47:29. > :47:31.Now is enough being done to help homeless people in Wales?
:47:32. > :47:34.Charities have told this programme there's a gap in provision
:47:35. > :47:35.which the Welsh Government needs to address.
:47:36. > :47:38.A headcount of rough sleepers carried out one night last November
:47:39. > :47:41.showed there were 141 people sleeping on the streets of Wales
:47:42. > :47:45.Cemlyn Davies has been trying to find out.
:47:46. > :47:49.Myself and a couple of others used to sleep on the corner there.
:47:50. > :47:54.Well, we just huddled up to each other, or used
:47:55. > :48:00.For seven years Alan Rayner lived on the streets of Swansea,
:48:01. > :48:03.the former professional golfer's life unravelled as grief
:48:04. > :48:07.and alcohol took their toll, leaving him homeless.
:48:08. > :48:10.How many consecutive nights would you spend here?
:48:11. > :48:16.Maybe two or three, and then we'd go somewhere else.
:48:17. > :48:21.If we stayed here, like, quite a few nights, then some
:48:22. > :48:25.people get to know you, they know where you're sleeping,
:48:26. > :48:29.and they think, oh, maybe he's got a drink, you know.
:48:30. > :48:37.Let's see if he's asleep, we'll attack him, whatever.
:48:38. > :48:42.So you were always feeling very vulnerable?
:48:43. > :48:46.Alan is now off the streets and the drink, thanks to the support
:48:47. > :48:52.he's received from organisations like The Wallich.
:48:53. > :48:55.Carl Bresnan works for the charity handing out breakfast and advice
:48:56. > :49:06.It's hard to say how many clients day to day,
:49:07. > :49:10.You might see someone today, you might see them tomorrow,
:49:11. > :49:13.then you might not see them for the week because of
:49:14. > :49:15.the transient nature of rough sleeping and the lifestyle.
:49:16. > :49:21.There has been an increase over the past 12 months, definitely.
:49:22. > :49:24.The latest figures, released by the Welsh government this
:49:25. > :49:30.Some of the results are based on a simple head count carried out
:49:31. > :49:36.The estimated total number of people sleeping rough on Welsh
:49:37. > :49:49.That's an increase of 72% in 12 months.
:49:50. > :49:52.That snapshot count followed another piece of research conducted
:49:53. > :49:55.over a two-week period, during that fortnight an estimated
:49:56. > :50:01.313 people were found to be sleeping rough in Wales.
:50:02. > :50:11.So why are more people sleeping rough in Wales,
:50:12. > :50:17.especially given that tackling homelessness has been a priority
:50:18. > :50:20.Recent housing legislation, for example, is supposed to ensure
:50:21. > :50:24.more help was available for people at risk of losing their home.
:50:25. > :50:27.I feel the reason why there is still an increase in rough sleeping,
:50:28. > :50:31.despite the legislation and research they've already sone,
:50:32. > :50:34.is because the focus has been on a preventative agenda
:50:35. > :50:37.which hasn't fully taken into account those that sleep rough,
:50:38. > :50:40.and those that live a street -based lifestyle.
:50:41. > :50:43.And if there was more research done, looking up the numbers,
:50:44. > :50:47.how they've ended up there, what could be put in place now
:50:48. > :50:50.they are there, how to get them back into sustainable accommodation,
:50:51. > :50:53.that research is what needs to be done.
:50:54. > :50:56.I feel there is a gap, currently, in the Welsh government,
:50:57. > :50:59.the way they've looked at things in that area.
:51:00. > :51:02.We are very supportive of the Welsh government's agenda.
:51:03. > :51:06.It's proving to be a much better way of dealing
:51:07. > :51:08.with homelessness for our clients, but where it's not working
:51:09. > :51:11.so effectively is for people who are actually homeless.
:51:12. > :51:14.We are better at preventing homelessness than we used to be,
:51:15. > :51:17.but we aren't so good at helping people once they have
:51:18. > :51:20.fallen into that hole, and once they are actually living
:51:21. > :51:33.The City Of Medicine Hat in Canada claims to have almost eradicated
:51:34. > :51:37.homelessness simply by giving rough sleepers a home with
:51:38. > :51:43.The idea is that it easier for a rough sleeper to solve
:51:44. > :51:46.their problems with a roof over their head.
:51:47. > :51:50.The city's Mayor, says it also makes financial sense,
:51:51. > :51:52.costing just one fifth of what it would cost to support
:51:53. > :51:57.We've seen a reduction in costs to public systems like emergency
:51:58. > :52:06.services that are offered by hospitals and the police.
:52:07. > :52:09.What we see happening first is the if it's
:52:10. > :52:12.implemented across the region, in particular, it can reduce
:52:13. > :52:18.the cost to the service and those systems.
:52:19. > :52:27.And those resources can be better used elsewhere.
:52:28. > :52:31.You are in touch with your family? Yes, my brother.
:52:32. > :52:34.Back in Swansea Alan counts himself lucky to have been given
:52:35. > :52:37.somewhere to call home, he now wants to do some voluntary
:52:38. > :52:39.work and hopes he can soon return to the golf course.
:52:40. > :52:42.Now we asked for an interview with a minister but no-one was available.
:52:43. > :52:45.However in a statement the Welsh Government said "We fully
:52:46. > :52:48.recognise there is more to do and we expect Local Authorities
:52:49. > :52:50.to focus on preventing and relieving homelessness.
:52:51. > :52:52.We have recently announced nearly ?8 million for the Homelessness
:52:53. > :52:54.Prevention Programme and also fund short term accommodation
:52:55. > :53:02.Labour has a new shadow secretary of state for Wales,
:53:03. > :53:05.the 5th since the general election less than two years ago.
:53:06. > :53:14.She was promoted from the position of shadow justice minister,
:53:15. > :53:16.has represented Wales over 100 times in squash and has
:53:17. > :53:20.She was also married to the former secretary of state
:53:21. > :53:22.for Wales, Ron Davies, but they've since divorced.
:53:23. > :53:25.And I only mention that because, when I met up with her,
:53:26. > :53:27.she told me their daughter found her appointment rather
:53:28. > :53:32.Well, first of all, Christina Rees, congratulations on your new role.
:53:33. > :53:36.Extreme honour to be asked, but I asked if I could speak
:53:37. > :53:39.to my daughter, and I rang her lap, and she saw the irony
:53:40. > :53:44.And said, well, Mum, we didn't see this one coming,
:53:45. > :53:48.but, you know, please do what you want to do.
:53:49. > :53:51.I know your heart is in politics, and serving Neath.
:53:52. > :53:54.And now you've got a chance to represent Wales in politics,
:53:55. > :54:05.Given that you're the fifth person to occupy this position
:54:06. > :54:08.since the General Election less than two years ago, does that make
:54:09. > :54:16.Not daunting, because we've had some tremendous shadows secretaries,
:54:17. > :54:20.they've all been fantastic in the role.
:54:21. > :54:24.And have left for, you know, for their own reasons.
:54:25. > :54:30.And I'm sure they'd be able to give me advice,
:54:31. > :54:37.I'd be willing to accept their advice.
:54:38. > :54:40.With Carwyn, I have a relationship that goes back quite
:54:41. > :54:44.He campaigned to get me elected in his seat, of Bridgend,
:54:45. > :54:50.So we have a really good working relationship,
:54:51. > :54:52.and I've already contacted Carwyn and we plan to meet
:54:53. > :55:01.Do you see it as being the voice of Carwyn Jones in Westminster,
:55:02. > :55:05.or vice versa, because I guess it's quite an important distinction?
:55:06. > :55:10.I see it as working together for the good of the people of Wales.
:55:11. > :55:14.I mean, I'm passionate about Wales, and I know that Carwyn is,
:55:15. > :55:22.But there has been over the years that is tension between some
:55:23. > :55:26.of the MPs and some of the AMs, especially in terms of the direction
:55:27. > :55:28.of devolution, could that be a stumbling point,
:55:29. > :55:37.I don't think so, because my task, shortly after I went to Westminster
:55:38. > :55:46.in May 2015 and became secretary of the Welsh Labour group of MPs,
:55:47. > :55:49.and one of my roles was to organise meetings so we could talk
:55:50. > :55:54.We've had a few meetings of AMs and MPs that have gone really well.
:55:55. > :55:57.I think we know how strong the Labour government has been
:55:58. > :56:10.But there is a view that on the pace of devolution MPs have been more
:56:11. > :56:18.sceptical than their counterparts in Cardiff Bay, is that
:56:19. > :56:25.I can't speak for the MPs who are reticent, I believe in devolution.
:56:26. > :56:28.I believe in taking powers down to a lower level and I think that
:56:29. > :56:36.can only enhance the benefits of the people in Wales.
:56:37. > :56:39.One of the things that Carwyn Jones talked about recently
:56:40. > :56:42.was immigration, looking at Brexit and saying, actually,
:56:43. > :56:47.Jeremy Corbyn's position on that isn't helpful,
:56:48. > :56:50.it's London centric, is that something you'd go along
:56:51. > :56:54.That's one of the criticisms that the Labour Party
:56:55. > :56:59.has been rather London centric in Westminster.
:57:00. > :57:02.But I'm a big fan of Keir Starmer man who is leading us
:57:03. > :57:08.through the minefield that is Brexit and he's a very able, capable man.
:57:09. > :57:12.His views are pretty much the same as Carwyn,
:57:13. > :57:15.and I know they'll work together on the White Paper.
:57:16. > :57:18.But Keir Starmer isn't the leader of the party, Jeremy Corbyn is.
:57:19. > :57:21.And he's saying slightly different things.
:57:22. > :57:25.I think we resolved that difference now, and immigration,
:57:26. > :57:30.people should be more than welcome to come to Wales if they've got
:57:31. > :57:34.a job, and you know that the NHS is propped up not only in Wales,
:57:35. > :57:45.And further afield to come in and give us their expertise.
:57:46. > :57:47.I interviewed Carwyn Jones a couple of months ago,
:57:48. > :57:49.and he said, actually, there isn't really a problem
:57:50. > :57:51.with immigration in Wales, but there is the perception
:57:52. > :57:53.of members of the public that they think there's
:57:54. > :57:58.They think it's far higher than it is, it's about 2% in Neath.
:57:59. > :57:59.People born outside of the European Union,
:58:00. > :58:06.Isn't there a lack of leadership from the Labour Party,
:58:07. > :58:09.from Carwyn Jones and people like that, saying, well,
:58:10. > :58:10.immigration isn't a problem, but we'll still do something
:58:11. > :58:19.We did get it on the doorstep when we campaigned vigorously
:58:20. > :58:22.And we had the conversation that people on the doorstep,
:58:23. > :58:29.People coming over here stealing our jobs, it makes
:58:30. > :58:38.And then they get this perception that it is their fault.
:58:39. > :58:45.You mentioned the divisions in the party. They are schisms on divisions
:58:46. > :58:51.within the party at the moment, how confident are you that Jeremy Corbyn
:58:52. > :58:57.will, and should lead the party into the next election in 2020?
:58:58. > :59:01.He is our leader. He has been democratically elected. As far as
:59:02. > :59:07.I'm concerned we should be behind the leader and support him in any
:59:08. > :59:10.way we can. That is the structure of the Labour Party.
:59:11. > :59:14.But if there are, and there are always rumours around, but if there
:59:15. > :59:19.are people who will try to unseat him before the next election would
:59:20. > :59:24.you be telling them I'll play no part in this? He's got my 100%
:59:25. > :59:29.support. Battle waiver? That's exactly what
:59:30. > :59:33.I'll be saying. He is our leader I form part of the Shadow Cabinet and
:59:34. > :59:37.it's a tremendous honour. I'll be working for unity in the party. We
:59:38. > :59:43.have been united since the summer and have been working so hard to
:59:44. > :59:46.make it work. Why are the fifth incumbent in your role, so they
:59:47. > :59:54.won't be a success before 2020? I hope not. Your sporting
:59:55. > :59:58.achievements, you've represented Welsh schools at hockey, tennis and
:59:59. > :00:03.athletics, you represented Wales in squash and are a black belt in judo,
:00:04. > :00:08.yet you've got something against God, I'm not saying I disagree with
:00:09. > :00:10.you, but what is your problem with golf?
:00:11. > :00:17.I said this in a debate because I'd been campaigning to get squash into
:00:18. > :00:21.the Olympics. I thought it would be in the London Olympics because we
:00:22. > :00:26.could have got medals. I just drew an analogy between I could go on a
:00:27. > :00:30.squash court and hit 100 balls in five minutes and my brother who
:00:31. > :00:34.plays golf takes five hours to hit 100 balls around a golf course.
:00:35. > :00:37.The comparison doesn't ring true for me.
:00:38. > :00:44.So you're impatient Ben! Not impatient but I want more quality,
:00:45. > :00:47.I'd probably had it in the rough anyway! Thank you, Christina Rees.
:00:48. > :00:50.That's all from us for this week and indeed the next fortnight.
:00:51. > :00:54.You can follow us there - we're @walespolitics
:00:55. > :00:58.Diolch am wylio, thanks for watching, time to go back
:00:59. > :01:14.After the excitement and late nights in the Commons last week,
:01:15. > :01:17.MPs are having a little break this week as we head into
:01:18. > :01:21.But there's still plenty in the diary in the near future -
:01:22. > :01:28.let's just remind ourselves of some key upcoming dates.
:01:29. > :01:38.There they are. We have the two by-elections on February 23rd. The
:01:39. > :01:41.budget is 8th March. That will be the last spring budget under this
:01:42. > :01:55.Government because it moves to the autumn.
:01:56. > :02:02.That round of French elections narrows the candidates, probably
:02:03. > :02:07.about eight or nine, down to two, the two who come first and second,
:02:08. > :02:14.then go into a play off round on May 7th. That will determine the next
:02:15. > :02:18.President. Steve, listening to Oliver Letwin and to the Labour
:02:19. > :02:22.leader in the House of Lords, is there any way you think that end of
:02:23. > :02:27.March deadline for Mrs May could be in jeopardy? No, I don't. Andrew
:02:28. > :02:32.Smith couldn't have been clearer with you they would do nothing to
:02:33. > :02:38.block not just Article 50 but that timetable, so I would be surprised
:02:39. > :02:42.if they don't make it. Given her, Theresa May's explicit determination
:02:43. > :02:48.to do so, not to do so would have become a problem for her, I think
:02:49. > :02:52.one way or another... No before this vote last week there was a vote nor
:02:53. > :02:57.the deadline, to agree the deadline by all sides. Plain sailing do you
:02:58. > :03:00.think? There is no serious Parliamentary resistance and it
:03:01. > :03:03.would be a personal embarrassment, I think for the Prime Minister to name
:03:04. > :03:09.the the end of March as the deadline and to miss it, unless she has a
:03:10. > :03:13.good excuse. I I reckon it will change the atmosphere of politics
:03:14. > :03:16.for the next two years, as soon as the negotiations begin, people in
:03:17. > :03:21.our profession will hunt for any detail and inside information we can
:03:22. > :03:25.find, thing also be leaked, I think from the European side from time to
:03:26. > :03:29.time, it will dominate the headlines for a solid two years and change
:03:30. > :03:35.politics. Let me just raise a possible, a dark cloud. No bigger
:03:36. > :03:39.than man's hand, that can complicate the timetable, because the Royal
:03:40. > :03:44.Assent on the current timetable has to come round the 13th. I would
:03:45. > :03:49.suggest that the Prime Minister can't trigger that until she does
:03:50. > :03:54.get the Royal Assent. If there is a bit of ping-pong that could delay
:03:55. > :03:57.that by receive day, the last thing the Europeans would want, they have
:03:58. > :04:04.another big meeting at the end of March which is the 60th anniversary
:04:05. > :04:10.of the Treaty of Rome. They don't want Article 50 to land on the
:04:11. > :04:15.table... It would infuriate everybody. My guess is she will have
:04:16. > :04:19.done it by then, this is between the Commons and the Lords, I mean Andrew
:04:20. > :04:25.Smith couldn't have been clearer, that they might send something back
:04:26. > :04:31.but they didn't expect a kind of a long play over this, so. The Liberal
:04:32. > :04:36.Democrats, they are almost an irrelevance in the Commons but not
:04:37. > :04:40.the Lords, they feel differently. Now, we don't know yet what the
:04:41. > :04:44.European Union negotiating position is going to be, we don't know
:04:45. > :04:47.because there are several crucial elections taking place, the Dutch
:04:48. > :04:51.taking place in March and then the one we put up, the French, and, at
:04:52. > :04:58.the moment, the French one is, it seems like it is coming down, to a
:04:59. > :05:06.play-off in the second round between Madame Le Pen who could come first
:05:07. > :05:10.in the first round and this Blairite figure, independent, centre-leftish
:05:11. > :05:15.Mr Macron, he may well get through and that, and the outcome of that
:05:16. > :05:20.will be an important determine napt on our negotiations. -- determinant.
:05:21. > :05:24.You o couldn't have two more different candidate, you have a
:05:25. > :05:28.national a front candidate and on the other hand the closest thing
:05:29. > :05:35.France could have you to a liberal President. With a small l. A
:05:36. > :05:41.reformist liberal President. It would be the most French thing in
:05:42. > :05:47.the world to elect someone who while the rest of the world is elected
:05:48. > :05:53.elitist, to elect someone who is the son of a teacher, who has liberal
:05:54. > :06:00.views, is a member of the French elite. It would be a thing for them
:06:01. > :06:08.to elect a man like that which I why I see them doing it. If it is Le
:06:09. > :06:13.Pen, Brexit becomes a minor sideshow, if it is Le Pen, the
:06:14. > :06:20.future of the European Union is? Danger, regardless of whether we are
:06:21. > :06:23.were in or out. I suggest if it is Mr Macron that presents some
:06:24. > :06:27.problems. He doesn't have his own party. He won't have a majority in
:06:28. > :06:32.the French assembly, he is untried and untested. He wants to do a
:06:33. > :06:39.number of things that will be unpopular which is why a number of
:06:40. > :06:47.people close to Mrs Le Pen tell me that she has her eye on 2022. She
:06:48. > :06:53.thinks lit go to hell in a hand basket under Mr Macron. He hasn't
:06:54. > :06:58.got the experience. What I find fascinating. It is not just all to
:06:59. > :07:01.play for in France, it is the fact what happens in France and Germany,
:07:02. > :07:08.not so much Holland I think but Germany later on in the year, how
:07:09. > :07:21.much it impacts what we are going to get. How much which ex #i78 panting
:07:22. > :07:24.on them. And at the time we are trying to, withdrawing ourself from
:07:25. > :07:27.European politics it is fascinating how much it will affect us. You see
:07:28. > :07:33.what Matthew was talking about earlier in the show, that what we do
:07:34. > :07:36.know, almost for sure, is that the socialist candidate will not get
:07:37. > :07:42.through to the second round. He could come firth but the
:07:43. > :07:45.centre-right candidate. If we were discussing that monthing a we would
:07:46. > :07:51.say it between teen the centre-right and the national fronts. We are to
:07:52. > :07:55.saying that. Matthew good win who spent a time in France isn't sure Le
:07:56. > :08:00.Pen will get into the second round, which is interesting. It is, I mean,
:08:01. > :08:07.it is going to be as important for the future of the European Union, as
:08:08. > :08:10.in retrospect the British 2015 general election was, if Labour had
:08:11. > :08:14.got in there would have been no referendum. That referendum has
:08:15. > :08:20.transformed the European Union because we are leaving and the
:08:21. > :08:25.French election is significant. We will be live from Paris on April
:08:26. > :08:30.23rd on the day France goings to the first round of polls. Tom Watson, he
:08:31. > :08:31.was on The Andrew Marr Show earlier today, was asked about Mr Corbyn,
:08:32. > :08:36.this is what he had to say. We had a damaging second leadership
:08:37. > :08:40.election, so we've got The polls aren't great for us,
:08:41. > :08:44.but I'm determined now we've got the leadership settled for this
:08:45. > :08:46.parliament, that we can focus on developing a very positive clear
:08:47. > :09:02.message to the British people So Julia, I don't know who are you
:09:03. > :09:08.are giggling. I find it untenable that, he is a very good media
:09:09. > :09:11.performer and he comes on and he is sitting there so well, you know,
:09:12. > :09:16.things are bad but don't worry we are looking at what we can do to win
:09:17. > :09:21.2020. The idea that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were sitting in their
:09:22. > :09:26.offices or on TV screens at this time in the electoral cycle thinking
:09:27. > :09:31.well I wonder if we can come up with a policy the British people might
:09:32. > :09:39.like. It is a nonsense, this is Tuesday night book zlufb. I am going
:09:40. > :09:45.to ask you the question I was going to before. I would suggest that he
:09:46. > :09:52.the right. The deputy Labour leader Tom Watson is violent the leadership
:09:53. > :09:56.is settled, with one caveat, unless the Corbynistas themselves to decide
:09:57. > :10:01.to move on Mr Corbyn, if the left of the Labour Party decides then it is
:10:02. > :10:06.not settled. Settled. If that doesn't happen that is That would be
:10:07. > :10:10.the worst situation if you are a Labour moderate. The Corbynistas
:10:11. > :10:16.would be saying the problem is no Corbynism, it is Corbyn himself, if
:10:17. > :10:21.we a younger person leading the process we can win the next general
:10:22. > :10:26.election, which means you have another itration of this, another
:10:27. > :10:33.five year experiment. And that is worst of all. If you are a Labour
:10:34. > :10:38.moderate, what you want is Jeremy Corbyn contest the next general
:10:39. > :10:41.election, possibly loses badly and then a Labour not moderate runs for
:10:42. > :10:47.the leadership saying we have tried your way, the worst would be Corbyn
:10:48. > :10:51.going, and a younger seven version of him trying and the experiment
:10:52. > :10:57.being extended. I see no easy way out of this. That is why he radiated
:10:58. > :11:01.the enthusiasm of someone in a hostage video in that interview.
:11:02. > :11:08.Maybe he has the Stockholm Syndrome now. The Labour moderates have had
:11:09. > :11:12.their day in the sun, two days in the sun and they lost. I suggest
:11:13. > :11:17.they are not going to try for the hat-trick again. Is there any
:11:18. > :11:23.indication that on the more Corbyn wing of the Labour Party, there is
:11:24. > :11:28.now doubts about their man. Yes, just to translate Tom Watson, what
:11:29. > :11:34.he meant was I Tom Watson am not going to get involved in another
:11:35. > :11:40.attempted coup. I tried it and it was a catastrophe. That is question
:11:41. > :11:46.enhe says it is set selled. It is because there is speculation on a
:11:47. > :11:52.daily basis. I disagree, Julia said I think this lot don't care about
:11:53. > :11:55.winning, I think they do. If the current position continue, one of
:11:56. > :11:59.two things will happen. Either Jeremy Corbyn will decide himself
:12:00. > :12:06.will decide he doesn't want to carry on. He half enjoys I it and half
:12:07. > :12:11.hates it. Finds it a strain. If that doesn't happen there will be some
:12:12. > :12:17.people round him who will say, look, this isn't working. There is another
:12:18. > :12:22.three-and-a-half years. There is a long way to go. I can't see it
:12:23. > :12:27.lasting in this way with politics in a state of flux, Tories will be
:12:28. > :12:32.under pressure in the coming two years, to have opinion polls at this
:12:33. > :12:36.level, I think is unsustainable. Final thought from you.? Yes, the
:12:37. > :12:41.idea it St another three-and-a-half years is just madness, but the
:12:42. > :12:46.people we are putting up at replacement for Jeremy Corbyn, and
:12:47. > :12:50.they have been focus grouping them. Most members wouldn't know who most
:12:51. > :12:55.of people were let alone most of the public.
:12:56. > :13:01.Angela rain? They are not overwhelmed with leadership
:13:02. > :13:06.potential at the moment. Very diplomatically put. Neither are the
:13:07. > :13:07.Tories, but they happened to have one at the moment. All right. That
:13:08. > :13:11.is it. Now, there's no Daily
:13:12. > :13:13.or Sunday Politics for the next week But the Daily Politics will be back
:13:14. > :13:18.on Monday 20th February and I'll be back here with the Sunday Politics
:13:19. > :13:21.on the 26th. Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:22. > :13:24.it's the Sunday Politics...