12/02/2017

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:00:38. > :00:42.Commons Speaker John Bercow is accused of compromising his

:00:43. > :00:44.impartiality by revealing he voted Remain in last year's EU referendum.

:00:45. > :00:54.The EU Withdrawal Bill clears its first Parliamentary hurdle.

:00:55. > :00:56.But will the House of Lords be quite so accommodating?

:00:57. > :01:03.Labour's Leader in the Lords joins us live.

:01:04. > :01:08.And we report from Stoke-on-Trent ahead of a crucial by-election

:01:09. > :01:11.Later in the programme: Ukip is looking to give

:01:12. > :01:14.Neil Kinnock tells us where Jeremy Corbyn's

:01:15. > :01:16.gone wrong over Brexit, and the numbers are rising,

:01:17. > :01:18.so is there a problem with how Welsh Government

:01:19. > :01:33.And with me a political panel who frequently like to compromise

:01:34. > :01:39.Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Janan Ganesh.

:01:40. > :01:45.I'll be trying to keep them in order during the course of the programme.

:01:46. > :01:47.So, Commons Speaker John Bercow has insisted his ability

:01:48. > :01:54.to act impartially is not damaged by reports that he voted to Remain

:01:55. > :02:01.The Sunday Telegraph reveals that Speaker Bercow revealed his views

:02:02. > :02:03.in front of an audience of students at Reading University

:02:04. > :02:20.This may not be popular with some people in this audience -

:02:21. > :02:24.I thought it was better to stay in the European Union than not,

:02:25. > :02:28.partly for economic reason, being part of a big trade bloc,

:02:29. > :02:32.and partly because I think we're in a world of power blocs,

:02:33. > :02:34.and I think for all the weaknesses and deficiencies

:02:35. > :02:38.of the European Union, it is better to be part of that big

:02:39. > :02:48.Speaker Bercow speaking at Reading University earlier this month. Does

:02:49. > :02:54.he not care is this I get that impression, he knows perfectly well,

:02:55. > :02:57.it states he has to be particularly -- Parliamentary neural. Whether

:02:58. > :03:02.there are going to be enough votes to force him out, the question, the

:03:03. > :03:07.last speaker wept out with the 20 vote against him. You yes to have

:03:08. > :03:13.the command of the support across the House. There is a Deputy

:03:14. > :03:23.Speaker, waiting, who would be superb. I think even the people who

:03:24. > :03:28.pretend to support Macis have had enough -- Speaker Bercow have had

:03:29. > :03:32.enough of his ways. The reason I ask whether he care, he didn't just tell

:03:33. > :03:36.the students that he voted to Remain, he then gave them a running

:03:37. > :03:43.commentary on all the issues that will be part of the Brexit

:03:44. > :03:45.negotiations, workers' rights, immigration, trade policy, everyone

:03:46. > :03:51.maternity leave got a hat tip from him. He would be a very well

:03:52. > :03:56.prepared Brexit minister if attendance needs a colleague --

:03:57. > :04:00.David Davis needs a colleague. I don't think this story makes his

:04:01. > :04:04.position untenable, what does is the wired pattern of behaviour of

:04:05. > :04:12.excessive candour on his political views, going back years, this is a

:04:13. > :04:19.guy who when the Queen visited Parliament described her as theical

:04:20. > :04:23.lied scope Queen. He had a running argument with David Cameron. We know

:04:24. > :04:33.his views on Brexit, we know his views on Donald Trump. . He has

:04:34. > :04:38.given interviews, none of the views are illegitimate but the candour

:04:39. > :04:42.which they are expressed with is scrupulous. Given Lyndsay Hoyle is a

:04:43. > :04:47.class accuse. He is the Deputy Speaker. And a fairly ready

:04:48. > :04:52.replacement, whether there is more of a movement to say, maybe not

:04:53. > :04:56.force Bercow out but acknowledge he has had a few years in the job and

:04:57. > :05:02.the question of successor ship comes into play. Has he concluded he is

:05:03. > :05:06.untouchable? What I can definitely say, is that he is determined to

:05:07. > :05:10.fight this one out, and not go of his own volition, so if he goes he

:05:11. > :05:16.will have to be forced out. He wants to stay. Which will be tough. It

:05:17. > :05:20.will be tough. Likely as things stand. I would say this, I speak to

:05:21. > :05:24.someone who likes the way he has brought the House of Commons to

:05:25. > :05:28.life, held ministers to account, forced them into explain thing,

:05:29. > :05:32.whenever there is a topical issue you know it will be in the House of

:05:33. > :05:39.Commons. He has changed that. He has. Time has been courageous, Ied a

:05:40. > :05:46.mire the way he has been a speaker. I would say this, during the

:05:47. > :05:49.referendum campaign, he asked me Nick Clegg, and Peter Hitchens to

:05:50. > :05:53.debate Brexit if his constituency. It was a packed out meeting. He

:05:54. > :05:59.chaired it. I said don't you want to join in? He didn't. He showed no

:06:00. > :06:06.desire to join in, he was impartial. He goes out to universities and kind

:06:07. > :06:12.of demyth GCSEs Parliament by speaking to them in a way, he

:06:13. > :06:19.doesn't gets credit for it and stays on after and drinks with them.

:06:20. > :06:23.Sometimes he, you know, it is clearly a mistake to have gone into

:06:24. > :06:27.his views retrospectively on that referendum campaign, I don't think

:06:28. > :06:30.that, did he try and stop Article 50 from being triggered in the House of

:06:31. > :06:35.Commons? That would be a scandal. Even that would be beyond him.

:06:36. > :06:41.Briefly, yes or no, could you imagine Betty Boothroyd behaving

:06:42. > :06:45.like that? Not at all. None of the recent speakers I could imagine

:06:46. > :06:48.doing that. It is good he is different.

:06:49. > :06:52.The bill that will allow the government to trigger Article 50

:06:53. > :06:54.and begin Brexit negotiations was voted through

:06:55. > :06:58.Many MPs were in a difficult position - unsure whether to vote

:06:59. > :07:00.with their conscience, their constituency,

:07:01. > :07:03.Europe, once such a divisive issue for the Conservatives,

:07:04. > :07:05.is now causing major divisions inside the Labour Party.

:07:06. > :07:10.So, let's have a look what happened in a bit more detail:

:07:11. > :07:13.Thanks to academic research carried out since the referendum,

:07:14. > :07:15.we now have estimates of how each individual constituency voted.

:07:16. > :07:21.It's thought that 410 constituencies voted Leave.

:07:22. > :07:28.On Wednesday night, the EU Notification of Withdrawal Bill

:07:29. > :07:31.was voted through by the House of Commons.

:07:32. > :07:39.The bill left the Labour Party divided.

:07:40. > :07:42.Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs to respect the result

:07:43. > :07:44.of the referendum and vote for the government's bill -

:07:45. > :07:47.But 52 Labour MPs defied Mr Corbyn's thee-line whip

:07:48. > :08:03.That's about a fifth of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

:08:04. > :08:06.Of those 52 Labour MPs who voted against the bill,

:08:07. > :08:08.the majority, 45 of them, represent seats that voted Remain.

:08:09. > :08:10.However, seven Labour MPs voted against the Article 50 Bill,

:08:11. > :08:13.even though their constituents voted Leave in the referendum.

:08:14. > :08:14.The Conservative Party were much more united.

:08:15. > :08:17.The vast majority of Tory MPs, 320 of them, voted for the bill.

:08:18. > :08:20.Just one Conservative MP, Ken Clarke, voted against it.

:08:21. > :08:21.His constituency, Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire, voted Remain.

:08:22. > :08:24.The bill will now go to the House of Lords -

:08:25. > :08:38.peers will start debating it on Monday the 20th of February.

:08:39. > :08:40.Joining me now is Matthew Goodwin, politics professor at

:08:41. > :08:43.He's got a book out next month called

:08:44. > :08:45.Brexit: Why Britain Voted To Leave The European Union.

:08:46. > :08:53.Welcome to the programme. Has Brexit, how you voted in the

:08:54. > :08:57.referendum and your continuing attitudes toward it, is that now

:08:58. > :09:02.becoming the new dividing line in British politics? I think it

:09:03. > :09:06.certainly is contributing to a new dividing line, in western politics

:09:07. > :09:10.more generally, we know over the last ten years, that the old left

:09:11. > :09:14.and right division has been making way for a new division, between

:09:15. > :09:18.essentially social liberals and Conservative, and Brexit was a, an

:09:19. > :09:22.incident a moment that really reflected that new dividing line, so

:09:23. > :09:28.it wasn't just the case that Brexit has cut across Labour's base, it is

:09:29. > :09:34.that dividing line, that deeper division is cutting across social

:09:35. > :09:37.democracies more generally. Is there a possibility, no higher than that,

:09:38. > :09:42.that it will reShane our party politics? I think it is too early to

:09:43. > :09:46.know whether this is a fundamental long-term realignment. If we look at

:09:47. > :09:52.what is happening in local by-election, what is happening at

:09:53. > :09:59.by-elections, pictures a bit mixed but if you look at how some of the

:10:00. > :10:02.Labour vote is responding, I think that potentially reflects the

:10:03. > :10:06.possibility of a terminal decline for the Labour Party, it is going to

:10:07. > :10:11.be incredibly difficult for Labour to win these voters back, these are

:10:12. > :10:15.traditional working class, socially Conservative voters who are leaving

:10:16. > :10:19.the party, don't forget, since the 1997 general election. It is not

:10:20. > :10:24.just because of the referendum. If that was the case, Labour would

:10:25. > :10:28.become more a party of the Metropolitan areas, and less of a

:10:29. > :10:33.party outside of these area, is that what you are saying? What we are S

:10:34. > :10:38.seeing across the west can social democracy that retrenchment into the

:10:39. > :10:42.cosmopolitan, Metropolitan city area, university towns, you can

:10:43. > :10:46.seeing in many European states populist right parties filling the

:10:47. > :10:52.traditional socialist area, why are they doing that? Because they are

:10:53. > :10:56.offering two message, economic and cultural protectionism. Social

:10:57. > :10:59.Democrats are clinging to that economic protectionism but not

:11:00. > :11:03.saying much about migration and multiculturalism and that sort of

:11:04. > :11:06.stuff. Are there deeper forces at work than Jeremy Corbyn? He often

:11:07. > :11:10.gets the blame for what is happening to the Labour Party now, but if you

:11:11. > :11:18.look the way the Greek socialist party has been wiped out. The German

:11:19. > :11:21.Social Democrats are in trouble. The Italian socialist party has lost a

:11:22. > :11:26.referendum. The French socialist are coming close to being wiped out on

:11:27. > :11:31.April 23rd, Labour's problems, are part of a much wider problem of

:11:32. > :11:35.social democracy S Jeremy Corbyn is a surface problem, what I mean by

:11:36. > :11:39.that is you could replace him tosh with another leader, they would

:11:40. > :11:45.still have this fundamental tension within the electorate. They are

:11:46. > :11:48.trying to appeal to two differenter reconcilable groups of voters who

:11:49. > :11:53.think differently about the key issues of the day. It is very

:11:54. > :11:59.difficult for any centre left party now to assemble the kinds of

:12:00. > :12:03.coalitionses we saw in the '90s with Clinton and Blair and Schroeder.

:12:04. > :12:08.Those days are gone. Does that explain why it is now Labour, rather

:12:09. > :12:12.than the Conservatives, historically the party divided over the European

:12:13. > :12:18.Union, does all of that help to explain why its Labour that now

:12:19. > :12:24.seems, disunited over the EU? I think so, I think also that the

:12:25. > :12:28.issue of Brexit, and the EU, is so immatly wrapped up with that issue

:12:29. > :12:33.of immigration, if you look at who has been abandoned Labour since 2015

:12:34. > :12:38.or the late 90s, the one thing those voters share is a rejection of the

:12:39. > :12:43.so-called liberal consensus on EU membership and mass immigration. It

:12:44. > :12:47.is difficult for any Labour lead eer co-bin or Clive Lewis on Dan Jarvis,

:12:48. > :12:52.to bring those voters back unless they are going to move on that

:12:53. > :12:56.cultural terrain. If they are not, they may not go to Ukip, they might

:12:57. > :12:58.go to somewhere more difficult for Labour which is political apathy.

:12:59. > :13:01.Thank you for that. Attention now shifts to the House

:13:02. > :13:04.of Lords where peers will begin scrutinising the EU Withdrawal Bill

:13:05. > :13:06.in just over a week. Brexit Secretary David Davis urged

:13:07. > :13:09.the Lords "to do its patriotic duty" and resist the urge to tinker

:13:10. > :13:11.with the legislation. Former minister Oliver Letwin

:13:12. > :13:13.went one further - mooting the possibility

:13:14. > :13:15.of the abolition of the Lords if it sought to frustrate

:13:16. > :13:18.the bill in any way. Here he is posing the question

:13:19. > :13:26.in the Commons on Thursday. Would he find time, in government

:13:27. > :13:29.time for a debate, should the other place seek to delay beyond the end

:13:30. > :13:32.of March the passage of our accession to Article 50, for this

:13:33. > :13:35.House to discuss the possibility of either the abolition or full-scale

:13:36. > :13:45.reform of the other place? And Oliver Letwin joins

:13:46. > :13:58.me now from Dorset. Welcome back to the programme Mr Let

:13:59. > :14:02.win. Before we come on to the Lord's, can I get your thoughts on a

:14:03. > :14:06.matter that has been making the news this morning and John Bercow's

:14:07. > :14:10.remarks about being a remain voter an giving something of a running

:14:11. > :14:16.commentary on various Brexit issues, has he sqloefr stepped the mark as

:14:17. > :14:23.speaker? -- overstepped the mark. I think this is slightly a fuss about

:14:24. > :14:27.nothing. Every person who thinks about politics will have had some

:14:28. > :14:30.opinion about great matters like Brexit, and I really don't see any

:14:31. > :14:37.particular reason why his opinion shouldn't be known after the fact.

:14:38. > :14:41.I, I was there throughout the five days of the Brexit debate, and I

:14:42. > :14:46.have to say, I thought he was pretty scrupulously fair in the way he

:14:47. > :14:49.handled the House, so, I, I don't really share the view that there is

:14:50. > :14:53.some terrible thing that has been revealed this weekend. Let me come

:14:54. > :14:59.on to what we are here to talk about, which is the Lords. Why have

:15:00. > :15:04.you raised the threat of the abolition of the Lord for doing its

:15:05. > :15:12.job of scrutinising what is coming out the Commons? Well, you know,

:15:13. > :15:16.Andrew, this question of the job of the House of Lords and scrutiny, has

:15:17. > :15:21.to be looked at carefully. There are all sorts of bills that come out the

:15:22. > :15:26.House of Commons which are detailed things that relate to, finance, and

:15:27. > :15:30.expenditure, and the criminal law, and all that sort of thing, and all

:15:31. > :15:35.of that, I admire the work that the House of Lords does, as you say

:15:36. > :15:40.scrutinising and we shouldn't use that word loosely, it means looking

:15:41. > :15:46.carefully at the detail, line by line of complicated legislation,

:15:47. > :15:50.hundreds of Paps in some cases, and spotting, using the considerable

:15:51. > :15:54.expertise many, not all be many of the peers have, in any given field,

:15:55. > :15:58.to identify things where the Commons has got it wrong in the sense that

:15:59. > :16:02.the legislation wouldn't achieve what the Government of the day is

:16:03. > :16:06.seeking to make it achieve. That is a serious proper role for an Upper

:16:07. > :16:11.House and the House of Lords performs it pretty

:16:12. > :16:21.Now this is a very different case. This is a two clause bill. The first

:16:22. > :16:27.clause which is the operative clause says the Prime Minister should go

:16:28. > :16:34.ahead and sign... I understand all that. We haven't got that much time,

:16:35. > :16:40.this is becoming a monologue. There is nothing to scrutinise, Andrew.

:16:41. > :16:45.There were plenty of amendments put before the Commons, none of them got

:16:46. > :16:49.through, it is true. There are eight Labour amendments in the Lords, are

:16:50. > :16:54.you resigned to this bill coming back to the Commons with amendments?

:16:55. > :16:58.No, it should not come back with amendments. There were hundreds of

:16:59. > :17:01.amendments literally put down in the House of Commons, they were all

:17:02. > :17:06.drunk. They were all trying one way or another to derail the process.

:17:07. > :17:13.This is a binary issue, should Theresa May sign the withdrawal or

:17:14. > :17:18.not? What should the Commons do? The Commons has now voted in favour of

:17:19. > :17:27.it. Node do should tolerate and unelected chamber forcing the

:17:28. > :17:31.British people... The people voted in a referendum and the Commons

:17:32. > :17:36.voted. The matter is now signed and sealed and should not be derailed by

:17:37. > :17:41.the House of Lords. On Labour amendment wants confirmation that

:17:42. > :17:44.when it is done, the potential Brexit agreement will be put before

:17:45. > :17:49.parliament before any vote in the European Parliament, that has been

:17:50. > :17:54.an agreed principle, what is wrong with that amendments? The government

:17:55. > :17:58.has already agreed there will be a vote, but actually, what the

:17:59. > :18:03.amendments were seeking was to give the Commons a further vote on

:18:04. > :18:06.whether we actually leave or not. That is already decided. Neither the

:18:07. > :18:12.House of Lords nor anybody else has a right in my view, despite the fact

:18:13. > :18:17.I was a remain, to what the will of the British people. Nobody should

:18:18. > :18:21.think an unelected chamber should now try to change the course of

:18:22. > :18:26.British history by asserting amendments in a very effective on

:18:27. > :18:29.clause bill which says go ahead and trigger Article 50. Are you

:18:30. > :18:33.concerned that amendments by the Lords which would then have to go

:18:34. > :18:40.back to the Commons for consideration, are you concerned

:18:41. > :18:45.that could derail or delay the Prime Minister's timetable for Article 50?

:18:46. > :18:49.Yes, exactly. That would be the result of a prolonged bout of

:18:50. > :18:53.ping-pong between the two houses, or much worse, if the House of Lords

:18:54. > :18:58.failed to give way and the Parliament act had to be used. It

:18:59. > :19:01.would really be intolerable. It is not good for our country. Those of

:19:02. > :19:07.us who voted remain would prefer for that not to happen. The whole

:19:08. > :19:12.country -- it is important for the whole country that this happens in a

:19:13. > :19:17.rapid way and allowing the government free rein to negotiate,

:19:18. > :19:21.that is surely in all our advantages? Deed think any efforts

:19:22. > :19:26.to abolish the House of Lords, an issue you have raised, does that

:19:27. > :19:33.make it easier because your friend David Cameron stuffed the upper

:19:34. > :19:37.chamber with donors, lapdogs and lingerie designers? I was among

:19:38. > :19:41.those who advocated for many years wholesale reform of the House of

:19:42. > :19:45.Lords, to turn it into a serious elected second chamber. I think we

:19:46. > :19:50.should have an upper house which commands legitimacy. This is a

:19:51. > :19:55.second issue. Here we have not got such a House and it seems to be very

:19:56. > :19:59.clear that it should not seek to derail on delay the action which has

:20:00. > :20:04.been mandated by the referendum, agreed by the House of Commons, and

:20:05. > :20:09.what we want to see now is a smooth orderly effect for this bill, so it

:20:10. > :20:14.becomes law and Theresa May can go ahead and negotiate on our behalf.

:20:15. > :20:17.One more question on the process, if the Lords to amend the bill and it

:20:18. > :20:24.goes back to the Commons and the Commons sends these amendments back

:20:25. > :20:30.again, take them out, how long could this ping-pong between the two

:20:31. > :20:35.chambers go on in your experience? It is a very, very interesting and

:20:36. > :20:39.complicated question with the clerks of the two ends of the Palace of

:20:40. > :20:44.Westminster not always agreeing about this. But through certain

:20:45. > :20:48.machinations of slightly changing amendments as they go, in my

:20:49. > :20:51.experience this could carry on for an awful long time if clever people,

:20:52. > :20:54.and there are plenty of clever people in the House of Lords, want

:20:55. > :20:59.to do that and that is precisely why I think we should not tolerate it.

:21:00. > :21:02.Oliver Letwin, thank you for joining us from Dorset.

:21:03. > :21:06.Joining me now is Labour's Leader in the House of Lords, Angela Smith.

:21:07. > :21:12.The Commons passed this bill without any amendments... There were

:21:13. > :21:18.changes, the government did concede a couple of points. But the

:21:19. > :21:23.amendments did not go through. Does that put pressure on the Lords to do

:21:24. > :21:26.the same? I think the Lords always feels under pressure to do the right

:21:27. > :21:33.thing. When I heard Oliver Letwin, I did not know whether to laugh or

:21:34. > :21:38.cry. We will not frustrate, we will not wreck, we will not sabotage. We

:21:39. > :21:42.will do what David Davis said was our patriotic duty. We will

:21:43. > :21:46.scrutinise the bill. We have at amendments from the Labour Party. We

:21:47. > :21:49.will look at those. It depends on the government response if we vote

:21:50. > :21:54.on those. There could be amendments asking the Commons to look again.

:21:55. > :22:00.That is normally what we do. It is not the wrong thing to do. But if

:22:01. > :22:04.you do this and make amendments, it then goes back to the Commons. If

:22:05. > :22:08.the Commons rejects the Lords' amendments, what do you think will

:22:09. > :22:14.happen? I do not see any extended ping-pong at all. It is perfectly

:22:15. > :22:18.legitimate. We are not talking about the outcome of negotiations, we are

:22:19. > :22:22.talking about the process. The process of engaging with Parliament

:22:23. > :22:25.and reporting to Parliament. It would be totally responsible for

:22:26. > :22:28.Parliament to say, off you go, Theresa May, have two years of

:22:29. > :22:33.negotiation and come back and talk to us at the end. The has to be a

:22:34. > :22:37.process where the government can use the expertise of parliament to get

:22:38. > :22:43.this right. But if you do put in some amendments, it has to go back

:22:44. > :22:46.to the Commons, they may well say they don't want those amendments and

:22:47. > :22:51.it may go back to the Lords, could that at the very least delay the

:22:52. > :22:56.Prime Minister's Brexit timetable? I don't think so. She said the end of

:22:57. > :23:00.March. Time has been built in for all the normal processes. I think

:23:01. > :23:04.Oliver Letwin and others are getting a bit overexcited. This is the

:23:05. > :23:07.normal process. Unless the government get things right the

:23:08. > :23:12.first time every time, the has to be this kind of process. These are

:23:13. > :23:16.reasonable amendments. This is a Labour amendment we are talking

:23:17. > :23:29.about here, you want a vote in the UK Parliament before any

:23:30. > :23:34.vote in the European Parliament if and when the Brexit deal is done,

:23:35. > :23:36.the Commons and the Lords get to vote on it first. But the government

:23:37. > :23:40.I think have already agreed to that so what is the point? It needs to be

:23:41. > :23:43.on the face of the bill. It is over well if the government have agreed

:23:44. > :23:47.it. Lord dubs had an agreement about child and look what happened to

:23:48. > :23:52.that. Does not sound as if you would go to the wire on that? It is

:23:53. > :23:57.important it is not just about the vote at the end, you have the

:23:58. > :24:03.ongoing engagement. If it is going to be a bad deal, we need to know

:24:04. > :24:08.long before we get to that stage? Is it something you would hold out for?

:24:09. > :24:13.I don't know yet. It is about how the House of Lords votes, Labour do

:24:14. > :24:16.not have a majority, we never had a majority in the House of Lords when

:24:17. > :24:22.we were in government. It is wrong to suggest that we cannot debate

:24:23. > :24:28.these issues... I don't think anyone is suggesting that. They are. It is

:24:29. > :24:31.not unfair to ask the government to ask the House of Commons to look

:24:32. > :24:35.again to look at those issues if that is what the House of Lords

:24:36. > :24:40.decides. Bit of the House of Commons says we looked, we are sticking with

:24:41. > :24:44.what we voted for, we rejected every amendment by at least 30 votes on

:24:45. > :24:49.all occasions, the Lords then have to buckle, is that what you are

:24:50. > :24:53.saying? Some point I think it is clear the House of Commons have to

:24:54. > :24:57.have its say. I think it is inconceivable that having had a

:24:58. > :25:02.referendum, which was not overwhelming, but it was a clear

:25:03. > :25:04.result, the House of Lords has no intention of sabotaging that but

:25:05. > :25:09.there are things which are not good about the process that we think

:25:10. > :25:13.could be improved. We have not just have the result of the referendum

:25:14. > :25:19.which voted to leave, but we have had the will of the Commons that

:25:20. > :25:25.passed this legislation by a majority of 372. And I am not

:25:26. > :25:30.contesting that for a second! Could you cite a precedent for the upper

:25:31. > :25:34.house amending a bill which passed by 372 votes in the Commons? Quite

:25:35. > :25:37.other things will come to the House of Lords with big majorities from

:25:38. > :25:42.the Commons and quite often the amendments we get, with that then

:25:43. > :25:47.forward and the government sees it could do better. Though not

:25:48. > :25:50.necessarily saying the government has got things wrong, but they could

:25:51. > :25:55.do things better. That happens time and time again and it is not

:25:56. > :26:00.unusual. If you were seen to thwart the referendum result and the vote

:26:01. > :26:05.in the Commons, the elected chamber of parliament, is the threat of

:26:06. > :26:09.abolition hanging over you? I think that is really ridiculous and

:26:10. > :26:11.absolute nonsense. We are not tying to what the decision of the House of

:26:12. > :26:16.Commons, we are trying to do better. It is a bit rich of the government

:26:17. > :26:21.and Oliver Letwin to complain about getting things through in time when

:26:22. > :26:25.the House of Commons spent -- the government spent three months trying

:26:26. > :26:28.to debate this issue. There have been some strong questions put to

:26:29. > :26:32.the government from the House of Lords on all sides. I don't know if

:26:33. > :26:41.the amendments have been passed or not. I think we have a good case for

:26:42. > :26:48.the government to get debate the point. If a traditional MP like

:26:49. > :26:52.Oliver Letwin is calling for the abolition of the hereditary and

:26:53. > :26:55.appointed chamber, and the Labour person like yourself was trying to

:26:56. > :27:01.defend that, that would not be a sustainable position, I would

:27:02. > :27:04.suggest! We saw this with the Strathclyde report as well, this is

:27:05. > :27:07.a government like no other. It is the first Conservative government in

:27:08. > :27:12.history not to have an automatic majority. They do not like challenge

:27:13. > :27:18.or scrutiny. But you get my point, Labour cannot go to the wire in

:27:19. > :27:20.defending and an elected second chamber, can it? Actually, Labour

:27:21. > :27:24.can go to the wire in saying the government does not get it right

:27:25. > :27:31.every time. House of Lords is going to normal processes and people like

:27:32. > :27:34.Oliver Letwin are really getting a little bit over excited, and people

:27:35. > :27:41.who have been anonymously briefing. Who has been anonymously briefing? I

:27:42. > :27:44.don't know, they are anonymous! I understand people want to make

:27:45. > :27:48.amendments, that is the role of the House of Lords, but can I just for

:27:49. > :27:52.the avoidance of doubt, is it still your case that whatever amendments

:27:53. > :27:58.to make, whatever may go back and forward, it is not your intention to

:27:59. > :28:03.stop Article 50 being triggered by the end of March? I have been saying

:28:04. > :28:06.that, exactly that for months and months and months. It is

:28:07. > :28:10.inconceivable that an unelected House will thwart the will of the

:28:11. > :28:13.House of Commons and a referendum on this issue. But that does not mean

:28:14. > :28:18.we will be bullied by Oliver Letwin and others. But the triggering will

:28:19. > :28:24.happen by the end of March? I very much suspect so unless Theresa May

:28:25. > :28:27.has second thoughts, I suspect that will happen. Thank you.

:28:28. > :28:29.Now, just because it's parliamentary recess next week

:28:30. > :28:33.There are two by-elections round the corner -

:28:34. > :28:35.one in Copeland, and another in Stoke-on-Trent Central

:28:36. > :28:36.where the former Shadow Education Secretary,

:28:37. > :28:39.Tristram Hunt, vacated his seat to take up a role

:28:40. > :28:42.as Director of the Victoria Albert Museum in London.

:28:43. > :28:44.But Labour are facing a fight to hold onto the constituency

:28:45. > :28:50.Seconds away, Ukip's new leader has stepped into the ring

:28:51. > :28:53.as their candidate in a by-election bout to see

:28:54. > :29:00.At the last election Ukip came second to Labour here

:29:01. > :29:05.But now they are confident they can land a knockout blow,

:29:06. > :29:11.because this place is packed with people that voted to leave the EU.

:29:12. > :29:15.70% of people voted to leave the European Union.

:29:16. > :29:22.I'm the only candidate standing in this election

:29:23. > :29:25.who is a true Brexiteer, who has always campaigned to leave

:29:26. > :29:28.the EU and therefore I believe I would be the best person

:29:29. > :29:31.But he has had to fight off allegations

:29:32. > :29:33.he wasn't living in the constituency when he entered the contest.

:29:34. > :29:37.Explain to me what is going on with this issue about your house?

:29:38. > :29:39.Well, we took up the lease the day before nominations.

:29:40. > :29:42.Everything we've done is perfectly legal and within the law.

:29:43. > :29:47.The Labour Party are trying to get off the real issues in this election

:29:48. > :29:54.and focus on something which is banal nonsense.

:29:55. > :29:59.And there's been trouble as well for the Labour contender.

:30:00. > :30:02.He's been labelled a Remoaner after he sent a series

:30:03. > :30:04.of anti-Brexit tweets, filled with words

:30:05. > :30:15.I can't believe I'm about to ask this question in a nursery

:30:16. > :30:18.on a Sunday morning TV programme, but did you really tweet that

:30:19. > :30:22.I tweeted many things about Brexit, that's tweet is out there.

:30:23. > :30:25.It was done quite after the referendum result and it

:30:26. > :30:28.was my way of showing my frustration at the fact that months

:30:29. > :30:33.after the result we hadn't had anything from the government.

:30:34. > :30:35.Theresa May had failed to produce any plan,

:30:36. > :30:37.she had failed to give any meaningful statement

:30:38. > :30:39.about what Brexit meant other than bland statements

:30:40. > :30:42.about Brexit is Brexit, and it's a hard Brexit, or a soft Brexit.

:30:43. > :30:46.The context of it was it was out of frustration.

:30:47. > :30:50.So you didn't mean to insult the 70% of the people who live here

:30:51. > :30:53.I never mean to insult anybody and you know,

:30:54. > :30:56.I've made it quite clear, if I'm elected as the member

:30:57. > :30:58.of Parliament for Stoke-on-Trent Central, I will absolutely respect

:30:59. > :31:00.the wishes of the people of Stoke Central.

:31:01. > :31:04.I will make sure my vote in parliament is to trigger Article 50.

:31:05. > :31:06.While the Tories' man has done little bit of rebranding too.

:31:07. > :31:10.I voted Remain and I've been open about that, but my top priority

:31:11. > :31:12.is about the economy and to ensure we still have an

:31:13. > :31:16.Theresa May has set out clear proposal to ensure we develop

:31:17. > :31:26.a trade relationship with Europe and make that a success.

:31:27. > :31:29.It means the Lib Dems and the Greens are the ones battling Brexit.

:31:30. > :31:31.Well, when the Lib Dem candidate is actually here.

:31:32. > :31:37.The candidate is a consultant cardiologist.

:31:38. > :31:40.He is actually at work today doing very important heart surgery.

:31:41. > :31:43.He will be back tomorrow, back on the campaign trail working hard.

:31:44. > :31:46.30% of people voted to Remain and nobody else

:31:47. > :31:50.is representing them, so, you know, it is still a live issue.

:31:51. > :31:52.It is still something people care about.

:31:53. > :31:54.We are only at the start of the Article 50 process

:31:55. > :32:00.We are very a clear that we are standing up for those

:32:01. > :32:03.who want to remain in the single market, who want to protect jobs

:32:04. > :32:08.Labour have taken people for granted in this area for a great many years.

:32:09. > :32:10.Ukip, I'm afraid, all Ukip can offer to politics is division.

:32:11. > :32:13.I've covered a lot of by-elections where Ukip have come second.

:32:14. > :32:16.We'll find out if they really got Labour on the ropes this

:32:17. > :32:35.And here is a full list of all the candidates standing

:32:36. > :32:46.in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.

:32:47. > :32:55.They do atract lots of candidates. You can get that on the BBC website

:32:56. > :33:03.as well. I was trying to think back, here we have the main opposition

:33:04. > :33:05.party defending two seats in by-elections in the midterm of a

:33:06. > :33:12.government. All the speculation is where the

:33:13. > :33:17.opposition party can hold on, that is unprecedented. I can't give of an

:33:18. > :33:23.equivalent. You wouldn't just expect them to win seats they have held

:33:24. > :33:29.traditionally, you would expect hem to make inroads into seats held by

:33:30. > :33:33.the other party, I wonder if they fail to hold on to just one of

:33:34. > :33:38.these, whether it accelerates the momentum and criticism of the

:33:39. > :33:42.leadership of the moment. I think they are interesting constituencies.

:33:43. > :33:48.Matthew good win was talking about the left win coalition over the

:33:49. > :33:55.years, almost being too broad for its own good, including places like

:33:56. > :34:00.Primrose Hill and Hackney. Big university towns in Manchester,

:34:01. > :34:10.Bristol. Diverse ethnically and included places like Stoke which are

:34:11. > :34:14.more Conservative. With a small c. Less economically well-off, more

:34:15. > :34:18.diverse, can the left hang on to both bits of country. Recent

:34:19. > :34:22.evidence suggests it cannot and the opportunity for Ukip is to pick up

:34:23. > :34:26.the second of those two types of community, the Stokes and the cope

:34:27. > :34:29.lands. That what makes the by-elections interest I would

:34:30. > :34:34.suggest. It is not just about Mr Corbyn's future about which we hear

:34:35. > :34:38.too much, it is about this traditional Labour coalition, can it

:34:39. > :34:43.still survive, particularly in places like Stoke? Europe clearly is

:34:44. > :34:50.a test. I think it's a myth by the way that Labour are only split now,

:34:51. > :34:54.over Europe and it has always been a Tory problem, last time I was on I

:34:55. > :35:01.mentioned it. That is why we had a referendum in 75. That is why they

:35:02. > :35:06.had a round then. But they were in chaos behind the scenes over what

:35:07. > :35:11.they thought about the euro, skillful leadership can paper over

:35:12. > :35:15.the cracks, and to address the wider issue of whether we are now in an

:35:16. > :35:20.era where left right issues have disappeared, and there is more of a

:35:21. > :35:27.regional divide, if you take Europe out of the equation which you can't,

:35:28. > :35:31.but if you were able to, issues about health, transport housing do

:35:32. > :35:36.split more left-right than a regional divide, so I think there is

:35:37. > :35:42.still fundamental left-right issues, but Europe isn't one of them and

:35:43. > :35:45.Europe has to be managed by a Labour leader skill fully and evidently

:35:46. > :35:51.that hasn't happened now. How would you see the by-elections in the

:35:52. > :35:55.current political context? Labour should be walking them, it should be

:35:56. > :35:57.a sign of the March of the Labour Party taking on the current

:35:58. > :36:01.Conservative Government. I don't think they raise any questions about

:36:02. > :36:04.Corbyn's leadership because the people who put him in don't think

:36:05. > :36:10.that winning elections matter, you have to remember this will be the

:36:11. > :36:14.mainstream media, it will be our fault why any of those Labour

:36:15. > :36:18.candidates don't win, the thing that is interesting is whether there is

:36:19. > :36:21.is a role for Ukip. The argument after the referendum was Ukip has

:36:22. > :36:27.done its job, it got the referendum, nothing to see here, I remember

:36:28. > :36:34.speaking to put a Nuttall before he was Ukip leader, on the day after

:36:35. > :36:38.the battle and he said this is Year Zero, where Ukip starts now, and

:36:39. > :36:41.this, and this is the interesting thing, does, do we see this one

:36:42. > :36:46.particular party having a role in the future? And I think it is all to

:36:47. > :36:51.play for, they could not not have stood in this seat. They have to win

:36:52. > :36:54.it to be an electoral force. The Labour candidate in Copeland has

:36:55. > :36:58.made the NHS the issue for her in this, that goes into the left-right,

:36:59. > :37:04.are we spending enough, are we not? That will be a test of what you were

:37:05. > :37:07.saying to see if traditional left-right issue, which at the

:37:08. > :37:10.moment would play Labour's way I would suggest, are big enough to

:37:11. > :37:15.overcome all the things you have been talking about and Matthew has

:37:16. > :37:18.been talking about. Maybe at this particular junction they are not,

:37:19. > :37:25.but I don't think any of those issues will go away, and that is why

:37:26. > :37:31.I question whether we are see the end of a historic left-right divide.

:37:32. > :37:33.At the moment with Europe so prominent, clearly these

:37:34. > :37:37.by-elections are unusual. And they will be a test of leadership for

:37:38. > :37:41.Theresa May in the coming months if not at the moment, as they have been

:37:42. > :37:46.in a way that he hasn't risen to, for the Labour leader.

:37:47. > :37:50.We will be leave on BBC One on the night, February 23rd off back of

:37:51. > :37:52.this week, we will bring you the result of both these crucial

:37:53. > :37:56.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:57. > :37:58.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:59. > :38:09.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:38:10. > :38:11.Hello, and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

:38:12. > :38:15.Coming up, could Wales learn from Canada in how

:38:16. > :38:18.we help homeless people, and the new Shadow Welsh Secretary

:38:19. > :38:24.tells me why Labour needs to pull together and back Jeremy Corbyn.

:38:25. > :38:27.But first one of his predecessors has told us he's made a "strategic

:38:28. > :38:32.Lord Kinnock led the party for nearly ten years and is a former

:38:33. > :38:36.He says Mr Corbyn has managed to turn Tory divisions over

:38:37. > :38:40.Europe into a series of difficulties for Labour.

:38:41. > :38:43.With his extensive experience of Brussels, our reporter

:38:44. > :38:47.Bethan James asked him how long he thought the negotiations

:38:48. > :38:52.The possibility of negotiating a comprehensive deal of the kind

:38:53. > :38:55.that this country really does need within two years is unthinkable.

:38:56. > :39:05.And I think that people who talk about ten years

:39:06. > :39:17.You have a considerable amount of experience in Brussels, how

:39:18. > :39:23.The first instinct is, of course, most British people

:39:24. > :39:26.working in the institutions of the European Union,

:39:27. > :39:30.and just about everybody else, they are appalled.

:39:31. > :39:35.But that's not going to get in the way of them

:39:36. > :39:40.doing a professional job in terms of negotiations.

:39:41. > :39:44.They will do the job in a very workable way that could mean,

:39:45. > :39:50.of course, very prolonged processes, simply because a great deal

:39:51. > :39:54.of minute detail as well as great principles are involved.

:39:55. > :39:58.I've undertaken international trade negotiations myself.

:39:59. > :40:01.I negotiated the transport agreement in aviation, rail and road

:40:02. > :40:13.So despite the grand between leaders of the countries,

:40:14. > :40:16.do you think it inevitably, you will find ourselves having

:40:17. > :40:23.About three o'clock in the morning meeting when everybody comes

:40:24. > :40:29.Sometimes it's four, half past four in the morning.

:40:30. > :40:37.There is a real problem, however, and it's already apparent.

:40:38. > :40:43.Mrs May has said already, repeatedly, that they want to be

:40:44. > :40:48.best friends with the European Union.

:40:49. > :40:53.However, at the same time they've done that they've said that

:40:54. > :40:56.if we don't get our way we will adopt an alternative

:40:57. > :40:59.economic model, which everybody knows means they would try to turn

:41:00. > :41:08.it into a kind of offshore European tax haven.

:41:09. > :41:13.A sort of Cayman on the English Channel.

:41:14. > :41:20.Now, in terms of trying to win friends and influence people,

:41:21. > :41:27.And the second thing is, she is also said that she is quite

:41:28. > :41:34.Now, that's not a great negotiating stance.

:41:35. > :41:38.If you are trying to put an emphasis on positive possibilities,

:41:39. > :41:41.as she has in one part of vocabulary, you stick with that.

:41:42. > :41:46.If, eventually, conditions become intolerable, then there is no

:41:47. > :41:49.inevitable compromise at three o'clock in the morning.

:41:50. > :41:56.But you don't announce it beforehand, not least

:41:57. > :41:59.because if you do then the calendar will do the work of the other side.

:42:00. > :42:04.If you say that our final threat is we will walk away.

:42:05. > :42:08.The art in any way infuriated, by the stance taken in negotiations,

:42:09. > :42:16.they can not really be blamed for saying, OK, we'll just

:42:17. > :42:24.We'll let the deadline come and see how you deal with that.

:42:25. > :42:30.When you are in negotiations you're not playing conkers.

:42:31. > :42:33.You yourself have said, and Lord Hain has said,

:42:34. > :42:40.that poorer areas will be hit by Brexit whereas areas in Wales,

:42:41. > :42:54.but those are the very areas that voted to leave.

:42:55. > :42:57.Surely the srgument, their plight is a valid one?

:42:58. > :43:00.I've spoken, as you would expect, to hundreds of people

:43:01. > :43:06.Left behind, disadvantaged by the gigantic sweep of change that

:43:07. > :43:07.overtaken industrial and rural Wales, for instance,

:43:08. > :43:13.Now, the calculation that people have now made

:43:14. > :43:20.is whether they would be advantaged or disadvantaged by Brexit.

:43:21. > :43:24.Given the realities relating to the single market,

:43:25. > :43:28.to the forms of migration you've got, and to inward investment.

:43:29. > :43:32.That's not even mentioning the ?300 million a year that we get

:43:33. > :43:38.from European funding those in public culture and regional

:43:39. > :43:44.But it is tricky politically for MPs particularly,

:43:45. > :43:47.like your son, for example, the area you once

:43:48. > :43:56.And those MPs feel that they have too no vote to trigger article 50,

:43:57. > :44:01.because they are representing the will of those people.

:44:02. > :44:03.How would you vote if you were in the Commons now?

:44:04. > :44:06.I would have voted the same way as the majority did.

:44:07. > :44:09.I think that the Labour leader made a strategic error in not saying

:44:10. > :44:13.there should be a free vote, so that members of Parliament

:44:14. > :44:19.could reflect the vote in the areas that they represent.

:44:20. > :44:25.And then, simultaneously, a focus really hard on what the conditions

:44:26. > :44:33.Any disadvantage that is accrued to the British economy will be felt

:44:34. > :44:38.most by the people in the least secure economic position,

:44:39. > :44:45.How do you think the present leader is handling Brexit?

:44:46. > :44:53.I don't think it's being handled, actually.

:44:54. > :44:58.I think that the one really seriously useful thing that

:44:59. > :45:04.he's done is to appoint the Brexit spokesman.

:45:05. > :45:09.Keir Starmer is a very effective forensic lawyer,

:45:10. > :45:15.of skill necessary and the kind of commitment necessary to make

:45:16. > :45:19.the rational arguments in the House of Commons.

:45:20. > :45:28.Beyond that, what potentially could have been a serious problem

:45:29. > :45:33.for the Conservative Party, because of the deep divisions

:45:34. > :45:38.in our party over Europe, I mean, they've lasted 40 years

:45:39. > :45:42.and they are very deep denial, has actually turned, because of the...

:45:43. > :45:50.Rather ineffectual handling of the issue by the leadership

:45:51. > :45:54.of the Labour Party, into a series of difficulties

:45:55. > :46:00.Naturally, since the Labour Party is my first commitment on my first

:46:01. > :46:03.love, other than my family and my country, and I

:46:04. > :46:17.How then does the leadership ensure, what should Jeremy Corbyn be doing

:46:18. > :46:21.to ensure that the Labour Party survives this?

:46:22. > :46:23.Well, he showed, as well as politically, almost physically,

:46:24. > :46:28.demonstrate his commitment to the Solidarity, the Comradeship,

:46:29. > :46:36.the unity of the Labour Party by making strong, salient arguments

:46:37. > :46:42.himself about the need to safeguard the well-being

:46:43. > :46:45.of the British people, particularly those who are

:46:46. > :46:53.And if he did that, in a distinctive, assertive,

:46:54. > :46:59.way a passionate way if you like, with the real substance.

:47:00. > :47:03.Then I think you'd see people say, yes, when the call came,

:47:04. > :47:06.when he was up against it, and when he had his back

:47:07. > :47:09.to the ropes, he came back fighting and made clear,

:47:10. > :47:12.forceful arguments that persuade us...

:47:13. > :47:19.I hope, I mean, he's been elected leader.

:47:20. > :47:22.And if you are a leader, that's what you've got to do.

:47:23. > :47:28.Every minute of the day, and the night, come to that.

:47:29. > :47:31.Now is enough being done to help homeless people in Wales?

:47:32. > :47:34.Charities have told this programme there's a gap in provision

:47:35. > :47:35.which the Welsh Government needs to address.

:47:36. > :47:38.A headcount of rough sleepers carried out one night last November

:47:39. > :47:41.showed there were 141 people sleeping on the streets of Wales

:47:42. > :47:45.Cemlyn Davies has been trying to find out.

:47:46. > :47:49.Myself and a couple of others used to sleep on the corner there.

:47:50. > :47:54.Well, we just huddled up to each other, or used

:47:55. > :48:00.For seven years Alan Rayner lived on the streets of Swansea,

:48:01. > :48:03.the former professional golfer's life unravelled as grief

:48:04. > :48:07.and alcohol took their toll, leaving him homeless.

:48:08. > :48:10.How many consecutive nights would you spend here?

:48:11. > :48:16.Maybe two or three, and then we'd go somewhere else.

:48:17. > :48:21.If we stayed here, like, quite a few nights, then some

:48:22. > :48:25.people get to know you, they know where you're sleeping,

:48:26. > :48:29.and they think, oh, maybe he's got a drink, you know.

:48:30. > :48:37.Let's see if he's asleep, we'll attack him, whatever.

:48:38. > :48:42.So you were always feeling very vulnerable?

:48:43. > :48:46.Alan is now off the streets and the drink, thanks to the support

:48:47. > :48:52.he's received from organisations like The Wallich.

:48:53. > :48:55.Carl Bresnan works for the charity handing out breakfast and advice

:48:56. > :49:06.It's hard to say how many clients day to day,

:49:07. > :49:10.You might see someone today, you might see them tomorrow,

:49:11. > :49:13.then you might not see them for the week because of

:49:14. > :49:15.the transient nature of rough sleeping and the lifestyle.

:49:16. > :49:21.There has been an increase over the past 12 months, definitely.

:49:22. > :49:24.The latest figures, released by the Welsh government this

:49:25. > :49:30.Some of the results are based on a simple head count carried out

:49:31. > :49:36.The estimated total number of people sleeping rough on Welsh

:49:37. > :49:49.That's an increase of 72% in 12 months.

:49:50. > :49:52.That snapshot count followed another piece of research conducted

:49:53. > :49:55.over a two-week period, during that fortnight an estimated

:49:56. > :50:01.313 people were found to be sleeping rough in Wales.

:50:02. > :50:11.So why are more people sleeping rough in Wales,

:50:12. > :50:17.especially given that tackling homelessness has been a priority

:50:18. > :50:20.Recent housing legislation, for example, is supposed to ensure

:50:21. > :50:24.more help was available for people at risk of losing their home.

:50:25. > :50:27.I feel the reason why there is still an increase in rough sleeping,

:50:28. > :50:31.despite the legislation and research they've already sone,

:50:32. > :50:34.is because the focus has been on a preventative agenda

:50:35. > :50:37.which hasn't fully taken into account those that sleep rough,

:50:38. > :50:40.and those that live a street -based lifestyle.

:50:41. > :50:43.And if there was more research done, looking up the numbers,

:50:44. > :50:47.how they've ended up there, what could be put in place now

:50:48. > :50:50.they are there, how to get them back into sustainable accommodation,

:50:51. > :50:53.that research is what needs to be done.

:50:54. > :50:56.I feel there is a gap, currently, in the Welsh government,

:50:57. > :50:59.the way they've looked at things in that area.

:51:00. > :51:02.We are very supportive of the Welsh government's agenda.

:51:03. > :51:06.It's proving to be a much better way of dealing

:51:07. > :51:08.with homelessness for our clients, but where it's not working

:51:09. > :51:11.so effectively is for people who are actually homeless.

:51:12. > :51:14.We are better at preventing homelessness than we used to be,

:51:15. > :51:17.but we aren't so good at helping people once they have

:51:18. > :51:20.fallen into that hole, and once they are actually living

:51:21. > :51:33.The City Of Medicine Hat in Canada claims to have almost eradicated

:51:34. > :51:37.homelessness simply by giving rough sleepers a home with

:51:38. > :51:43.The idea is that it easier for a rough sleeper to solve

:51:44. > :51:46.their problems with a roof over their head.

:51:47. > :51:50.The city's Mayor, says it also makes financial sense,

:51:51. > :51:52.costing just one fifth of what it would cost to support

:51:53. > :51:57.We've seen a reduction in costs to public systems like emergency

:51:58. > :52:06.services that are offered by hospitals and the police.

:52:07. > :52:09.What we see happening first is the if it's

:52:10. > :52:12.implemented across the region, in particular, it can reduce

:52:13. > :52:18.the cost to the service and those systems.

:52:19. > :52:27.And those resources can be better used elsewhere.

:52:28. > :52:31.You are in touch with your family? Yes, my brother.

:52:32. > :52:34.Back in Swansea Alan counts himself lucky to have been given

:52:35. > :52:37.somewhere to call home, he now wants to do some voluntary

:52:38. > :52:39.work and hopes he can soon return to the golf course.

:52:40. > :52:42.Now we asked for an interview with a minister but no-one was available.

:52:43. > :52:45.However in a statement the Welsh Government said "We fully

:52:46. > :52:48.recognise there is more to do and we expect Local Authorities

:52:49. > :52:50.to focus on preventing and relieving homelessness.

:52:51. > :52:52.We have recently announced nearly ?8 million for the Homelessness

:52:53. > :52:54.Prevention Programme and also fund short term accommodation

:52:55. > :53:02.Labour has a new shadow secretary of state for Wales,

:53:03. > :53:05.the 5th since the general election less than two years ago.

:53:06. > :53:14.She was promoted from the position of shadow justice minister,

:53:15. > :53:16.has represented Wales over 100 times in squash and has

:53:17. > :53:20.She was also married to the former secretary of state

:53:21. > :53:22.for Wales, Ron Davies, but they've since divorced.

:53:23. > :53:25.And I only mention that because, when I met up with her,

:53:26. > :53:27.she told me their daughter found her appointment rather

:53:28. > :53:32.Well, first of all, Christina Rees, congratulations on your new role.

:53:33. > :53:36.Extreme honour to be asked, but I asked if I could speak

:53:37. > :53:39.to my daughter, and I rang her lap, and she saw the irony

:53:40. > :53:44.And said, well, Mum, we didn't see this one coming,

:53:45. > :53:48.but, you know, please do what you want to do.

:53:49. > :53:51.I know your heart is in politics, and serving Neath.

:53:52. > :53:54.And now you've got a chance to represent Wales in politics,

:53:55. > :54:05.Given that you're the fifth person to occupy this position

:54:06. > :54:08.since the General Election less than two years ago, does that make

:54:09. > :54:16.Not daunting, because we've had some tremendous shadows secretaries,

:54:17. > :54:20.they've all been fantastic in the role.

:54:21. > :54:24.And have left for, you know, for their own reasons.

:54:25. > :54:30.And I'm sure they'd be able to give me advice,

:54:31. > :54:37.I'd be willing to accept their advice.

:54:38. > :54:40.With Carwyn, I have a relationship that goes back quite

:54:41. > :54:44.He campaigned to get me elected in his seat, of Bridgend,

:54:45. > :54:50.So we have a really good working relationship,

:54:51. > :54:52.and I've already contacted Carwyn and we plan to meet

:54:53. > :55:01.Do you see it as being the voice of Carwyn Jones in Westminster,

:55:02. > :55:05.or vice versa, because I guess it's quite an important distinction?

:55:06. > :55:10.I see it as working together for the good of the people of Wales.

:55:11. > :55:14.I mean, I'm passionate about Wales, and I know that Carwyn is,

:55:15. > :55:22.But there has been over the years that is tension between some

:55:23. > :55:26.of the MPs and some of the AMs, especially in terms of the direction

:55:27. > :55:28.of devolution, could that be a stumbling point,

:55:29. > :55:37.I don't think so, because my task, shortly after I went to Westminster

:55:38. > :55:46.in May 2015 and became secretary of the Welsh Labour group of MPs,

:55:47. > :55:49.and one of my roles was to organise meetings so we could talk

:55:50. > :55:54.We've had a few meetings of AMs and MPs that have gone really well.

:55:55. > :55:57.I think we know how strong the Labour government has been

:55:58. > :56:10.But there is a view that on the pace of devolution MPs have been more

:56:11. > :56:18.sceptical than their counterparts in Cardiff Bay, is that

:56:19. > :56:25.I can't speak for the MPs who are reticent, I believe in devolution.

:56:26. > :56:28.I believe in taking powers down to a lower level and I think that

:56:29. > :56:36.can only enhance the benefits of the people in Wales.

:56:37. > :56:39.One of the things that Carwyn Jones talked about recently

:56:40. > :56:42.was immigration, looking at Brexit and saying, actually,

:56:43. > :56:47.Jeremy Corbyn's position on that isn't helpful,

:56:48. > :56:50.it's London centric, is that something you'd go along

:56:51. > :56:54.That's one of the criticisms that the Labour Party

:56:55. > :56:59.has been rather London centric in Westminster.

:57:00. > :57:02.But I'm a big fan of Keir Starmer man who is leading us

:57:03. > :57:08.through the minefield that is Brexit and he's a very able, capable man.

:57:09. > :57:12.His views are pretty much the same as Carwyn,

:57:13. > :57:15.and I know they'll work together on the White Paper.

:57:16. > :57:18.But Keir Starmer isn't the leader of the party, Jeremy Corbyn is.

:57:19. > :57:21.And he's saying slightly different things.

:57:22. > :57:25.I think we resolved that difference now, and immigration,

:57:26. > :57:30.people should be more than welcome to come to Wales if they've got

:57:31. > :57:34.a job, and you know that the NHS is propped up not only in Wales,

:57:35. > :57:45.And further afield to come in and give us their expertise.

:57:46. > :57:47.I interviewed Carwyn Jones a couple of months ago,

:57:48. > :57:49.and he said, actually, there isn't really a problem

:57:50. > :57:51.with immigration in Wales, but there is the perception

:57:52. > :57:53.of members of the public that they think there's

:57:54. > :57:58.They think it's far higher than it is, it's about 2% in Neath.

:57:59. > :57:59.People born outside of the European Union,

:58:00. > :58:06.Isn't there a lack of leadership from the Labour Party,

:58:07. > :58:09.from Carwyn Jones and people like that, saying, well,

:58:10. > :58:10.immigration isn't a problem, but we'll still do something

:58:11. > :58:19.We did get it on the doorstep when we campaigned vigorously

:58:20. > :58:22.And we had the conversation that people on the doorstep,

:58:23. > :58:29.People coming over here stealing our jobs, it makes

:58:30. > :58:38.And then they get this perception that it is their fault.

:58:39. > :58:45.You mentioned the divisions in the party. They are schisms on divisions

:58:46. > :58:51.within the party at the moment, how confident are you that Jeremy Corbyn

:58:52. > :58:57.will, and should lead the party into the next election in 2020?

:58:58. > :59:01.He is our leader. He has been democratically elected. As far as

:59:02. > :59:07.I'm concerned we should be behind the leader and support him in any

:59:08. > :59:10.way we can. That is the structure of the Labour Party.

:59:11. > :59:14.But if there are, and there are always rumours around, but if there

:59:15. > :59:19.are people who will try to unseat him before the next election would

:59:20. > :59:24.you be telling them I'll play no part in this? He's got my 100%

:59:25. > :59:29.support. Battle waiver? That's exactly what

:59:30. > :59:33.I'll be saying. He is our leader I form part of the Shadow Cabinet and

:59:34. > :59:37.it's a tremendous honour. I'll be working for unity in the party. We

:59:38. > :59:43.have been united since the summer and have been working so hard to

:59:44. > :59:46.make it work. Why are the fifth incumbent in your role, so they

:59:47. > :59:54.won't be a success before 2020? I hope not. Your sporting

:59:55. > :59:58.achievements, you've represented Welsh schools at hockey, tennis and

:59:59. > :00:03.athletics, you represented Wales in squash and are a black belt in judo,

:00:04. > :00:08.yet you've got something against God, I'm not saying I disagree with

:00:09. > :00:10.you, but what is your problem with golf?

:00:11. > :00:17.I said this in a debate because I'd been campaigning to get squash into

:00:18. > :00:21.the Olympics. I thought it would be in the London Olympics because we

:00:22. > :00:26.could have got medals. I just drew an analogy between I could go on a

:00:27. > :00:30.squash court and hit 100 balls in five minutes and my brother who

:00:31. > :00:34.plays golf takes five hours to hit 100 balls around a golf course.

:00:35. > :00:37.The comparison doesn't ring true for me.

:00:38. > :00:44.So you're impatient Ben! Not impatient but I want more quality,

:00:45. > :00:47.I'd probably had it in the rough anyway! Thank you, Christina Rees.

:00:48. > :00:50.That's all from us for this week and indeed the next fortnight.

:00:51. > :00:54.You can follow us there - we're @walespolitics

:00:55. > :00:58.Diolch am wylio, thanks for watching, time to go back

:00:59. > :01:14.After the excitement and late nights in the Commons last week,

:01:15. > :01:17.MPs are having a little break this week as we head into

:01:18. > :01:21.But there's still plenty in the diary in the near future -

:01:22. > :01:28.let's just remind ourselves of some key upcoming dates.

:01:29. > :01:38.There they are. We have the two by-elections on February 23rd. The

:01:39. > :01:41.budget is 8th March. That will be the last spring budget under this

:01:42. > :01:55.Government because it moves to the autumn.

:01:56. > :02:02.That round of French elections narrows the candidates, probably

:02:03. > :02:07.about eight or nine, down to two, the two who come first and second,

:02:08. > :02:14.then go into a play off round on May 7th. That will determine the next

:02:15. > :02:18.President. Steve, listening to Oliver Letwin and to the Labour

:02:19. > :02:22.leader in the House of Lords, is there any way you think that end of

:02:23. > :02:27.March deadline for Mrs May could be in jeopardy? No, I don't. Andrew

:02:28. > :02:32.Smith couldn't have been clearer with you they would do nothing to

:02:33. > :02:38.block not just Article 50 but that timetable, so I would be surprised

:02:39. > :02:42.if they don't make it. Given her, Theresa May's explicit determination

:02:43. > :02:48.to do so, not to do so would have become a problem for her, I think

:02:49. > :02:52.one way or another... No before this vote last week there was a vote nor

:02:53. > :02:57.the deadline, to agree the deadline by all sides. Plain sailing do you

:02:58. > :03:00.think? There is no serious Parliamentary resistance and it

:03:01. > :03:03.would be a personal embarrassment, I think for the Prime Minister to name

:03:04. > :03:09.the the end of March as the deadline and to miss it, unless she has a

:03:10. > :03:13.good excuse. I I reckon it will change the atmosphere of politics

:03:14. > :03:16.for the next two years, as soon as the negotiations begin, people in

:03:17. > :03:21.our profession will hunt for any detail and inside information we can

:03:22. > :03:25.find, thing also be leaked, I think from the European side from time to

:03:26. > :03:29.time, it will dominate the headlines for a solid two years and change

:03:30. > :03:35.politics. Let me just raise a possible, a dark cloud. No bigger

:03:36. > :03:39.than man's hand, that can complicate the timetable, because the Royal

:03:40. > :03:44.Assent on the current timetable has to come round the 13th. I would

:03:45. > :03:49.suggest that the Prime Minister can't trigger that until she does

:03:50. > :03:54.get the Royal Assent. If there is a bit of ping-pong that could delay

:03:55. > :03:57.that by receive day, the last thing the Europeans would want, they have

:03:58. > :04:04.another big meeting at the end of March which is the 60th anniversary

:04:05. > :04:10.of the Treaty of Rome. They don't want Article 50 to land on the

:04:11. > :04:15.table... It would infuriate everybody. My guess is she will have

:04:16. > :04:19.done it by then, this is between the Commons and the Lords, I mean Andrew

:04:20. > :04:25.Smith couldn't have been clearer, that they might send something back

:04:26. > :04:31.but they didn't expect a kind of a long play over this, so. The Liberal

:04:32. > :04:36.Democrats, they are almost an irrelevance in the Commons but not

:04:37. > :04:40.the Lords, they feel differently. Now, we don't know yet what the

:04:41. > :04:44.European Union negotiating position is going to be, we don't know

:04:45. > :04:47.because there are several crucial elections taking place, the Dutch

:04:48. > :04:51.taking place in March and then the one we put up, the French, and, at

:04:52. > :04:58.the moment, the French one is, it seems like it is coming down, to a

:04:59. > :05:06.play-off in the second round between Madame Le Pen who could come first

:05:07. > :05:10.in the first round and this Blairite figure, independent, centre-leftish

:05:11. > :05:15.Mr Macron, he may well get through and that, and the outcome of that

:05:16. > :05:20.will be an important determine napt on our negotiations. -- determinant.

:05:21. > :05:24.You o couldn't have two more different candidate, you have a

:05:25. > :05:28.national a front candidate and on the other hand the closest thing

:05:29. > :05:35.France could have you to a liberal President. With a small l. A

:05:36. > :05:41.reformist liberal President. It would be the most French thing in

:05:42. > :05:47.the world to elect someone who while the rest of the world is elected

:05:48. > :05:53.elitist, to elect someone who is the son of a teacher, who has liberal

:05:54. > :06:00.views, is a member of the French elite. It would be a thing for them

:06:01. > :06:08.to elect a man like that which I why I see them doing it. If it is Le

:06:09. > :06:13.Pen, Brexit becomes a minor sideshow, if it is Le Pen, the

:06:14. > :06:20.future of the European Union is? Danger, regardless of whether we are

:06:21. > :06:23.were in or out. I suggest if it is Mr Macron that presents some

:06:24. > :06:27.problems. He doesn't have his own party. He won't have a majority in

:06:28. > :06:32.the French assembly, he is untried and untested. He wants to do a

:06:33. > :06:39.number of things that will be unpopular which is why a number of

:06:40. > :06:47.people close to Mrs Le Pen tell me that she has her eye on 2022. She

:06:48. > :06:53.thinks lit go to hell in a hand basket under Mr Macron. He hasn't

:06:54. > :06:58.got the experience. What I find fascinating. It is not just all to

:06:59. > :07:01.play for in France, it is the fact what happens in France and Germany,

:07:02. > :07:08.not so much Holland I think but Germany later on in the year, how

:07:09. > :07:21.much it impacts what we are going to get. How much which ex #i78 panting

:07:22. > :07:24.on them. And at the time we are trying to, withdrawing ourself from

:07:25. > :07:27.European politics it is fascinating how much it will affect us. You see

:07:28. > :07:33.what Matthew was talking about earlier in the show, that what we do

:07:34. > :07:36.know, almost for sure, is that the socialist candidate will not get

:07:37. > :07:42.through to the second round. He could come firth but the

:07:43. > :07:45.centre-right candidate. If we were discussing that monthing a we would

:07:46. > :07:51.say it between teen the centre-right and the national fronts. We are to

:07:52. > :07:55.saying that. Matthew good win who spent a time in France isn't sure Le

:07:56. > :08:00.Pen will get into the second round, which is interesting. It is, I mean,

:08:01. > :08:07.it is going to be as important for the future of the European Union, as

:08:08. > :08:10.in retrospect the British 2015 general election was, if Labour had

:08:11. > :08:14.got in there would have been no referendum. That referendum has

:08:15. > :08:20.transformed the European Union because we are leaving and the

:08:21. > :08:25.French election is significant. We will be live from Paris on April

:08:26. > :08:30.23rd on the day France goings to the first round of polls. Tom Watson, he

:08:31. > :08:31.was on The Andrew Marr Show earlier today, was asked about Mr Corbyn,

:08:32. > :08:36.this is what he had to say. We had a damaging second leadership

:08:37. > :08:40.election, so we've got The polls aren't great for us,

:08:41. > :08:44.but I'm determined now we've got the leadership settled for this

:08:45. > :08:46.parliament, that we can focus on developing a very positive clear

:08:47. > :09:02.message to the British people So Julia, I don't know who are you

:09:03. > :09:08.are giggling. I find it untenable that, he is a very good media

:09:09. > :09:11.performer and he comes on and he is sitting there so well, you know,

:09:12. > :09:16.things are bad but don't worry we are looking at what we can do to win

:09:17. > :09:21.2020. The idea that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were sitting in their

:09:22. > :09:26.offices or on TV screens at this time in the electoral cycle thinking

:09:27. > :09:31.well I wonder if we can come up with a policy the British people might

:09:32. > :09:39.like. It is a nonsense, this is Tuesday night book zlufb. I am going

:09:40. > :09:45.to ask you the question I was going to before. I would suggest that he

:09:46. > :09:52.the right. The deputy Labour leader Tom Watson is violent the leadership

:09:53. > :09:56.is settled, with one caveat, unless the Corbynistas themselves to decide

:09:57. > :10:01.to move on Mr Corbyn, if the left of the Labour Party decides then it is

:10:02. > :10:06.not settled. Settled. If that doesn't happen that is That would be

:10:07. > :10:10.the worst situation if you are a Labour moderate. The Corbynistas

:10:11. > :10:16.would be saying the problem is no Corbynism, it is Corbyn himself, if

:10:17. > :10:21.we a younger person leading the process we can win the next general

:10:22. > :10:26.election, which means you have another itration of this, another

:10:27. > :10:33.five year experiment. And that is worst of all. If you are a Labour

:10:34. > :10:38.moderate, what you want is Jeremy Corbyn contest the next general

:10:39. > :10:41.election, possibly loses badly and then a Labour not moderate runs for

:10:42. > :10:47.the leadership saying we have tried your way, the worst would be Corbyn

:10:48. > :10:51.going, and a younger seven version of him trying and the experiment

:10:52. > :10:57.being extended. I see no easy way out of this. That is why he radiated

:10:58. > :11:01.the enthusiasm of someone in a hostage video in that interview.

:11:02. > :11:08.Maybe he has the Stockholm Syndrome now. The Labour moderates have had

:11:09. > :11:12.their day in the sun, two days in the sun and they lost. I suggest

:11:13. > :11:17.they are not going to try for the hat-trick again. Is there any

:11:18. > :11:23.indication that on the more Corbyn wing of the Labour Party, there is

:11:24. > :11:28.now doubts about their man. Yes, just to translate Tom Watson, what

:11:29. > :11:34.he meant was I Tom Watson am not going to get involved in another

:11:35. > :11:40.attempted coup. I tried it and it was a catastrophe. That is question

:11:41. > :11:46.enhe says it is set selled. It is because there is speculation on a

:11:47. > :11:52.daily basis. I disagree, Julia said I think this lot don't care about

:11:53. > :11:55.winning, I think they do. If the current position continue, one of

:11:56. > :11:59.two things will happen. Either Jeremy Corbyn will decide himself

:12:00. > :12:06.will decide he doesn't want to carry on. He half enjoys I it and half

:12:07. > :12:11.hates it. Finds it a strain. If that doesn't happen there will be some

:12:12. > :12:17.people round him who will say, look, this isn't working. There is another

:12:18. > :12:22.three-and-a-half years. There is a long way to go. I can't see it

:12:23. > :12:27.lasting in this way with politics in a state of flux, Tories will be

:12:28. > :12:32.under pressure in the coming two years, to have opinion polls at this

:12:33. > :12:36.level, I think is unsustainable. Final thought from you.? Yes, the

:12:37. > :12:41.idea it St another three-and-a-half years is just madness, but the

:12:42. > :12:46.people we are putting up at replacement for Jeremy Corbyn, and

:12:47. > :12:50.they have been focus grouping them. Most members wouldn't know who most

:12:51. > :12:55.of people were let alone most of the public.

:12:56. > :13:01.Angela rain? They are not overwhelmed with leadership

:13:02. > :13:06.potential at the moment. Very diplomatically put. Neither are the

:13:07. > :13:07.Tories, but they happened to have one at the moment. All right. That

:13:08. > :13:11.is it. Now, there's no Daily

:13:12. > :13:13.or Sunday Politics for the next week But the Daily Politics will be back

:13:14. > :13:18.on Monday 20th February and I'll be back here with the Sunday Politics

:13:19. > :13:21.on the 26th. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:22. > :13:24.it's the Sunday Politics...