:00:42. > :00:47.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:48. > :00:47.Theresa May still has plenty on her plate,
:00:48. > :00:50.not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords.
:00:51. > :00:51.But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland,
:00:52. > :00:53.the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever.
:00:54. > :00:56.Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election,
:00:57. > :00:58.but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party
:00:59. > :01:08.The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live.
:01:09. > :01:14.You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden!
:01:15. > :01:21.And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact
:01:22. > :01:23.Coming up in Sunday Politics for Wales,
:01:24. > :01:24.what next for UKIP, after this week's by-elections?
:01:25. > :01:29.In London, will the rise in council in Wales under threat?
:01:30. > :01:32.In London, will the rise in council tax in all but four local
:01:33. > :01:38.authorities be enough to alleviate the crisis in social care?
:01:39. > :01:41.And joining me for all of that, three journalists who I'm pleased
:01:42. > :01:49.to say have so far not been banned from the White House.
:01:50. > :01:53.I've tried banning them from this show repeatedly,
:01:54. > :01:56.but somehow they just keep getting past BBC security - it's Sam Coates,
:01:57. > :02:07.We have had two crucial by-elections, the results last
:02:08. > :02:11.Thursday night. It's now Sunday morning, where do they believe
:02:12. > :02:15.British politics? I think it leaves British politics looking as if it
:02:16. > :02:20.may go ahead without Ukip is a strong and robust force. It is
:02:21. > :02:25.difficult to see from where we are now how Ukip rebuilds into a
:02:26. > :02:30.credible vote winning operation. I think it looks unprofessional, the
:02:31. > :02:34.campaign they fought in Stoke was clearly winnable because the margin
:02:35. > :02:38.with which Labour held onto that seat was not an impressive one but
:02:39. > :02:42.they put forward arguably the wrong candidate, it was messy and it's
:02:43. > :02:46.hard to see where they go from here, particularly with the money problems
:02:47. > :02:52.they have and even Nigel Farage saying he's fed up of the party. If
:02:53. > :02:59.Isabel is right, if Ukip is no longer a major factor, you look at
:03:00. > :03:03.the state of Labour and the Lib Dems coming from a long way behind
:03:04. > :03:08.despite their local government by-election successes, Tories never
:03:09. > :03:12.more dominant. I think Theresa May is in a fascinating situation. She's
:03:13. > :03:18.the most powerful Prime Minister of modern times for now because she
:03:19. > :03:23.faces no confident, formidable opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher
:03:24. > :03:27.who in the 1980s, although she won landslides in the end, often looked
:03:28. > :03:33.like she was in trouble. She was inferred quite often in the build-up
:03:34. > :03:40.to the election. David Owen, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite
:03:41. > :03:45.often she was worried. At the moment Theresa May faces no formidable UK
:03:46. > :03:49.opposition. However, she is both strong and fragile because her
:03:50. > :03:53.agenda is Brexit, which I still think many have not got to grips
:03:54. > :03:59.with in terms of how complex and training and difficult it will be
:04:00. > :04:04.for her. Thatcher faced no equivalent to Brexit so she is both
:04:05. > :04:08.strong, formidably strong because of the wider UK political context, and
:04:09. > :04:12.very fragile. It is just when you think you have never been more
:04:13. > :04:18.dominant you are actually at the most dangerous, what can possibly go
:04:19. > :04:21.wrong? I think that the money of her MPs they haven't begun to think
:04:22. > :04:26.through the practicalities of Brexit and she does have a working majority
:04:27. > :04:29.of about 17 in the House of Commons so at any point she could be put
:04:30. > :04:33.under pressure from really opposition these days is done by the
:04:34. > :04:40.two wins inside the Conservative Party, either the 15 Europhiles or
:04:41. > :04:43.the bigger group of about 60 Brexiteers who have continued to
:04:44. > :04:48.operate as a united and disciplined force within the Conservative Party
:04:49. > :04:51.to get their agenda on the table. Either of those wings could be
:04:52. > :04:55.disappointed at any point in the next three and a half years and that
:04:56. > :05:01.would put her under pressure. I wouldn't completely rule out Ukip
:05:02. > :05:05.coming back. The reason Ukip lost in Stoke I think it's because at the
:05:06. > :05:12.moment Theresa May is delivering pretty much everything Ukip figures
:05:13. > :05:15.might want to see. We might find the phrase Brexit means Brexit quite
:05:16. > :05:18.anodyne but I think she is convincing people she will press
:05:19. > :05:24.ahead with their agenda and deliver the leave vote that people buy a
:05:25. > :05:28.slim majority voted for. Should that change, should there be talk of
:05:29. > :05:32.transition periods, shut the migration settlement not make people
:05:33. > :05:36.happy, then I think Ukip risks charging back up the centre ground
:05:37. > :05:41.and causing more problems in future. That could be a two year gap in
:05:42. > :05:45.which Ukip would have to survive. As I said, Ukip is on our agenda for
:05:46. > :05:46.today. Thursday was a big night
:05:47. > :05:48.for political obsessives like us, with not one but two
:05:49. > :05:52.significant by-elections, Ellie braved the wind and rain
:05:53. > :06:00.to bring you this report. The clouds had gathered,
:06:01. > :06:05.the winds blew at gale force. Was a change in the air, or just
:06:06. > :06:09.a weather system called Doris? Voters in Stoke-on-Trent
:06:10. > :06:13.were about to find out. It's here, a sports hall
:06:14. > :06:16.on a Thursday night that the country's media reckon
:06:17. > :06:22.is the true eye of the storm. Would Labour suffer a lightning
:06:23. > :06:25.strike to its very heart, or would the Ukip threat proved
:06:26. > :06:27.to be a damp squib? Everybody seems to think the result
:06:28. > :06:30.in Stoke-on-Trent would be close, just as they did 150-odd miles away
:06:31. > :06:34.in Copeland, where the Tories are counting on stealing another
:06:35. > :06:38.Labour heartland seat. Areas of high pressure in both
:06:39. > :06:46.places, and some strange sights. We knew this wasn't a normal
:06:47. > :06:49.by-election, and to prove it there is the rapper,
:06:50. > :06:51.Professor Green. Chart-toppers aside,
:06:52. > :06:54.winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade was announced first,
:06:55. > :06:56.where everyone was so excited the candidates didn't even make it
:06:57. > :07:00.onto the stage for the result. And I do hereby declare
:07:01. > :07:04.that the said Gareth Snell Nigel Farage has said that victory
:07:05. > :07:11.here in Stoke-on-Trent But Ukip's newish leader
:07:12. > :07:18.played down the defeat, insisting his party's
:07:19. > :07:21.time would come. Are you going to stand again
:07:22. > :07:27.as an MP or has this No doubt I will stand again,
:07:28. > :07:30.don't worry about that. The politics of hope beat
:07:31. > :07:39.the politics of fear. I think Ukip are the ones this
:07:40. > :07:42.weekend who have got But a few minutes later,
:07:43. > :07:48.it turned out Labour had Harrison, Trudy Lynn,
:07:49. > :07:52.the Conservative Party That was more than 2,000
:07:53. > :08:03.votes ahead of Labour. What has happened here tonight
:08:04. > :08:07.is a truly historic event. Labour were disappointed,
:08:08. > :08:09.but determined to be optimistic At a point when we're 15 to 18
:08:10. > :08:21.points behind in the polls... The Conservatives within 2000 votes
:08:22. > :08:25.I think is an incredible The morning after the night
:08:26. > :08:29.before, the losing parties were licking their wounds
:08:30. > :08:33.and their lips over breakfast. For years and years,
:08:34. > :08:36.Ukip was Nigel Farage, That has now changed,
:08:37. > :08:43.that era has gone. It's a new era, it is
:08:44. > :08:46.a second age for us. So that needs to be
:08:47. > :08:51.more fully embedded, it needs to be more defined,
:08:52. > :08:53.you know, and that will We have to continue to improve
:08:54. > :09:02.in seats where we have stood. As we have done here,
:09:03. > :09:05.we've improved on our 2015 result, that's what important,
:09:06. > :09:07.is that we are taking steps Can I be the first to come
:09:08. > :09:12.here today to congratulate you on being elected the new MP
:09:13. > :09:15.for Stoke on Trent Central. Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived
:09:16. > :09:18.in Stoke to welcome his newest MP. Not sure he's going to
:09:19. > :09:23.Copeland later though. Earlier in the day, the Labour
:09:24. > :09:27.leader had made clear he'd considered and discounted some
:09:28. > :09:29.theories about the party's Since you found out that you'd lost
:09:30. > :09:35.a seat to a governing party for the first time
:09:36. > :09:39.since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning
:09:40. > :09:42.looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question -
:09:43. > :09:46.could the problem actually be me? In the end it was the Conservatives
:09:47. > :09:54.who came out on top. No governing party has made
:09:55. > :09:56.a gain at a by-election With the self-styled people's army
:09:57. > :10:02.of Ukip halted in Stoke, and Labour's wash-out
:10:03. > :10:07.here in Copeland... There's little chance of rain
:10:08. > :10:18.on Theresa May's parade. In the wake of that loss in
:10:19. > :10:21.Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party has been meeting for its spring
:10:22. > :10:23.conference in the Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson
:10:24. > :10:28.warned delegates that unless Labour took the by-election defeat
:10:29. > :10:30.seriously, the party's devastation in Scotland could be repeated
:10:31. > :10:34.south of the border. Well, I'm joined now
:10:35. > :10:49.by the leader of Scottish Labour, Even after your party had lost
:10:50. > :10:52.Copeland to the Tories and with Labour now trailing 16 points in the
:10:53. > :10:57.UK polls, you claim to have every faith that Jeremy Corbyn would
:10:58. > :11:05.absolutely win the general election. What evidence can you bring to
:11:06. > :11:08.support that? There is no doubt the result in Copeland was disappointing
:11:09. > :11:12.for the Labour Party and I think it's a collective feeling for
:11:13. > :11:15.everyone within the Labour Party and I want to do what I can to turn
:11:16. > :11:18.around the fortunes of our party. That's what I've committed to do
:11:19. > :11:25.while I have been the Scottish Labour leader. This two years ago we
:11:26. > :11:29.were down the mines so to speak in terms of losing the faith of working
:11:30. > :11:33.class communities across the country, but we listened very hard
:11:34. > :11:37.to the message voters are sending and responded to it. That's what I'm
:11:38. > :11:43.committed to doing in Scotland and that's what Jeremy Corbyn is
:11:44. > :11:48.committed to doing UK wide. The latest polls put Labour at 14% in
:11:49. > :11:54.Scotland, the Tories at ten points ahead of you in Scotland, even
:11:55. > :11:59.Theresa May is more popular than Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will
:12:00. > :12:04.try again - why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn could win a general
:12:05. > :12:08.election? What I said when you are talking about Scotland is that I'm
:12:09. > :12:13.the leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I take responsibility for
:12:14. > :12:15.our policies here. Voters said very clearly after the Scottish
:12:16. > :12:19.Parliament election that they didn't have a clear enough sense of what we
:12:20. > :12:23.stood for so I have been advocating a very strong anti-austerity
:12:24. > :12:27.platform, coming up with ideas of how we can oppose the cuts and
:12:28. > :12:30.invest in our future. That is something Jeremy Corbyn also
:12:31. > :12:37.supports but I've also made it clear this weekend that we are opposed to
:12:38. > :12:40.a second independence referendum. I want to bring Scotland back together
:12:41. > :12:45.by focusing on the future and that's why I have been speaking about the
:12:46. > :12:49.federal solution for the UK. I know that Jeremy Corbyn shares that
:12:50. > :12:53.ambition because he is backing the plans for a people's Constitutional
:12:54. > :13:00.Convention. Yes, these are difficult times for the Scottish Labour Party
:13:01. > :13:06.and UK family, but I have a plan in place to turn things around. It will
:13:07. > :13:10.take time though. I'm still not sure why you are so sure the Labour party
:13:11. > :13:15.can win but let me come onto your plan. You want a UK wide
:13:16. > :13:21.Constitutional Convention and that lead to a new Federalist settlement.
:13:22. > :13:28.Is it the policy of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to
:13:29. > :13:32.carve England into federal regions? What we support at a UK wide level
:13:33. > :13:35.is the people's constitutional convention. I have been careful to
:13:36. > :13:39.prescribe what I think is in the best interests of Scotland but not
:13:40. > :13:44.to dictate to other parts of the UK what is good for them, that's the
:13:45. > :13:49.point of the people's constitutional convention. You heard Tom Watson say
:13:50. > :13:53.there has to be a UK wide conversation about power, who has it
:13:54. > :13:56.and how it is exercised across England. England hasn't been part of
:13:57. > :14:02.this devolution story over the last 20 years, it is something that
:14:03. > :14:06.happened between Scotland and London or Wales and London. No wonder
:14:07. > :14:09.people in England feel disenfranchised from that. What
:14:10. > :14:15.evidence can you bring to show there is any appetite in England for an
:14:16. > :14:20.English federal solution to England, to carve England into federal
:14:21. > :14:23.regions? Have you spoken to John Prescott about this? He might tell
:14:24. > :14:29.you some of the difficulties. There's not even a debate about that
:14:30. > :14:33.here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy. I speak to John Prescott regularly.
:14:34. > :14:37.What there is a debate about is the idea the world is changing so fast
:14:38. > :14:40.that globalisation is taking jobs away from communities in the
:14:41. > :14:45.north-east, that many working class communities feel left behind, that
:14:46. > :14:48.Westminster feels very far away and the politicians within it feel
:14:49. > :14:52.remote in part of the establishment. People are fed up with power being
:14:53. > :14:55.exercised somewhere else, that's where I think federalism comes in
:14:56. > :15:00.because it's about bringing power closer to people and in many ways
:15:01. > :15:08.it's forced on us because of Brexit. We know the United Kingdom is
:15:09. > :15:11.leaving the European Union so we have to talk about the repatriation
:15:12. > :15:14.of those powers from Brussels to Britain. I want many of those powers
:15:15. > :15:16.to go to the Scottish parliament but where should they go in the English
:15:17. > :15:20.context? It is not as things currently stand the policy of the
:15:21. > :15:21.English Labour Party to carve England into federal regions,
:15:22. > :15:31.correct? It is absolutely the policy of the
:15:32. > :15:35.UK Labour Party to support the people's Constitutional convention
:15:36. > :15:40.to examining these questions. I think it is really important. You're
:15:41. > :15:44.promising the Scottish people a federal solution, and you have not
:15:45. > :15:49.even squared your own party for a federal solution in England. That is
:15:50. > :15:52.not true. The UK Labour Party is united on this. I am going to
:15:53. > :15:57.Cardiff next month to meet with Carwyn Jones and various leaders.
:15:58. > :16:01.United on a federal solution? You know as well as I know it is not
:16:02. > :16:06.united on a federal solution. We will have a conversation about power
:16:07. > :16:29.in this country. It is not united on that
:16:30. > :16:33.issue? This is the direction of travel. It is what you heard
:16:34. > :16:35.yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom Watson, when you hear from people
:16:36. > :16:38.like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle City Council and Labour's Local
:16:39. > :16:40.Government Association. There is an appetite for talking about power.
:16:41. > :16:42.Talking is one thing. We need to have this conversation across the
:16:43. > :16:44.whole of the United Kingdom, to have a reformed United Kingdom. It is a
:16:45. > :16:47.conversation you're offering Scotland, not the policy. Let's come
:16:48. > :16:49.onto the labour made of London. He was in power for your conference. He
:16:50. > :16:52.wrote in the record yesterday, there is no difference between Scottish
:16:53. > :16:55.nationalism and racism. Would you like this opportunity to distance
:16:56. > :16:59.yourself from that absurd claim? I think that Sadiq Khan was very clear
:17:00. > :17:04.yesterday that he was not accusing the SNP of racism. What he was
:17:05. > :17:09.saying clearly is that nationalism by its very nature divides people
:17:10. > :17:13.and communities. That is what I said in my speech yesterday. I am fed up
:17:14. > :17:18.living in a divided and fractured country and society. Our politics is
:17:19. > :17:23.forcing is constantly to pick sides, whether you're a no, leave a remain,
:17:24. > :17:27.it brings out the worst in our politicians and politics. All the
:17:28. > :17:31.consensus we find in the grey areas is lost. That is why am standing
:17:32. > :17:46.under a banner that together we are stronger. We have to come up with
:17:47. > :17:50.ideas and focus on the future. That is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He
:17:51. > :17:53.said quite clearly in the Daily Record yesterday, and that the last
:17:54. > :17:55.minute he adapted his speech to your conference yesterday, to try and
:17:56. > :17:58.reduce the impact, that there was no difference between Scottish
:17:59. > :18:01.nationalism and racism. Your colleague, and Sarwar, said that
:18:02. > :18:05.even after he had tried to introduce the caveats, all forms of
:18:06. > :18:13.nationalism rely on creating eyes and them. Let's call it for what it
:18:14. > :18:17.is. So you are implying that the Scottish Nationalists are racist.
:18:18. > :18:21.Would you care to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I utterly
:18:22. > :18:27.refute that that is what Sadiq Khan said. I would never suggest that the
:18:28. > :18:33.SNP are an inherently racist party. That does is a disservice. He did
:18:34. > :18:37.not see it. What he did say, however, is that nationalism is
:18:38. > :18:41.divisive. You know that better than anyone. I see your Twitter account.
:18:42. > :18:47.Regularly your attack for the job you do as a journalist. Politics in
:18:48. > :18:52.Scotland is divided on. I do not want to revisit that independence
:18:53. > :18:55.question again for that reason. As leader of the Labour Party, I want
:18:56. > :19:01.to bring our country back together, appeal to people who voted yes and
:19:02. > :19:05.no. That banner, together we are stronger, that is where the answers
:19:06. > :19:09.lie in defaulters can be found. If in response to the Mayor of London,
:19:10. > :19:14.your colleague says, let's call it out for what it is, what is he
:19:15. > :19:22.referring to if he is not implying that national symbol is racist? --
:19:23. > :19:26.and that nationalism is racist? He is saying that it leads to divisive
:19:27. > :19:30.politics. The Labour Party has always advocated that together we
:19:31. > :19:34.are stronger. Saying something is divisive is very different from
:19:35. > :19:38.saying something is racist. That is what the Mayor of London said. That
:19:39. > :19:43.is what your colleague was referring to. He did not. You would really
:19:44. > :19:49.struggle to quote that from the Mayor of London. He talked about
:19:50. > :19:55.being divided by race. What does that mean? I think he was very clear
:19:56. > :19:59.that he was talking about divided politics. There is an appetite the
:20:00. > :20:03.length and breadth of the country to end that divisive politics. That is
:20:04. > :20:07.what I stand for, focusing on the future, bringing people back
:20:08. > :20:11.together, concentrating on what the economy might look like in 20 years'
:20:12. > :20:13.time in coming up with ideas to tackle it today. Thank you for
:20:14. > :20:14.joining us. Thursday's win for Labour
:20:15. > :20:16.in Stoke-on-Trent Central gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn,
:20:17. > :20:19.but for Ukip leader and defeated Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall
:20:20. > :20:21.there were no consolation prizes. I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's
:20:22. > :20:31.principal political Welcome to the programme. Good
:20:32. > :20:35.morning. How long will Paul Nuttall survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks,
:20:36. > :20:41.months? You are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip
:20:42. > :20:46.was formed in 1993 with the express purpose, much mocked, of getting
:20:47. > :20:49.Britain out of the European Union. Under the brilliant leadership of
:20:50. > :20:53.Nigel Farage, we were crucial in forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to
:20:54. > :20:59.make a referendum promise he did not want to give. With our friends in
:21:00. > :21:05.Fort leave and other organisations. Mac we know that. Get to the answer.
:21:06. > :21:10.We helped to win that referendum. The iteration of Ukip at the moment
:21:11. > :21:15.that we're in, the primary purpose, we are the guard dog of Brexit.
:21:16. > :21:20.Viewed through that prism, the Stoke by-election was a brilliant success.
:21:21. > :21:25.A brilliant success? We had the Tory candidate that had pumped out
:21:26. > :21:29.publicity for Remain, for Cameron Bradley, preaching the gospel of
:21:30. > :21:34.Brexit. We had a Labour candidate and we know what he really felt
:21:35. > :21:36.about Brexit, preaching the Gospel according to Brexit. You lost. Well
:21:37. > :21:53.the by-election was going on, we had the Labour Party in the House of
:21:54. > :21:55.Commons pass the idea of trickling Article 50 by a landslide. Are
:21:56. > :21:58.passionate thing, the thing that 35,000 Ukip members care about the
:21:59. > :22:00.most, it is an extraordinary achievement. I am very proud. What
:22:01. > :22:03.would you have described as victory as? If we could have got Paul
:22:04. > :22:06.Nuttall into the House of Commons, that would have been a fantastic
:22:07. > :22:12.cherry on the top. Losing was an extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip
:22:13. > :22:18.supporters the Stoke was winnable, but Paul Nuttall's campaign was
:22:19. > :22:26.marred by controversy, Tory voters refuse to vote tactically for Ukip
:22:27. > :22:30.to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr Nuttall is to blame for not winning
:22:31. > :22:34.what was a winnable seat? I do not see that at all. This is
:22:35. > :22:39.counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn did do one thing that made it more
:22:40. > :22:44.difficult for us to win. Fantasy. That was to take Labour into a
:22:45. > :22:49.Brexit position formerly. Just over 50 Labour MPs had voted against
:22:50. > :22:53.triggering Article 50. In political terms, we have intimidated the
:22:54. > :22:55.Labour Party into backing Brexit. How much good is it doing you? It
:22:56. > :23:12.comes to the heart of the problem your party faces.
:23:13. > :23:14.You're struggling to win Tory Eurosceptic voters. For the moment,
:23:15. > :23:17.they seem happy with Theresa May. Stoke shows you're not winning
:23:18. > :23:19.Labour Brexit voters either. If you cannot get the solution Tolisso
:23:20. > :23:21.labour, where does your Broad come from? In terms of the by-election,
:23:22. > :23:24.it came very early for Paul. I'm talking about the future. We have a
:23:25. > :23:29.future agenda, and ideological argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour
:23:30. > :23:33.Party, which is wedded to the notion of global citizenship and does not
:23:34. > :23:37.recognise the nation state. We know he spent Christmas sitting around
:23:38. > :23:41.campfires with Mexican Marxist dreaming of global government. We
:23:42. > :23:44.believe in the nation state. We believe that the patriotic working
:23:45. > :23:51.class vote will be receptive to that. Your Broad went down by 9% in
:23:52. > :23:56.Cortland. In Copeland we were squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable
:23:57. > :24:02.to squeeze the Tories, who are on a high. Our agenda is that social
:24:03. > :24:05.solidarity is important but we arrange it in this country by nation
:24:06. > :24:10.and community. We want an immigration system that is not only
:24:11. > :24:14.reducing... We know what you want. I do not think people do. You had a
:24:15. > :24:19.whole by-election to tell people and they did not vote for you and. When
:24:20. > :24:24.Nigel Farage said it was fundamental that you were winner in Stoke, he
:24:25. > :24:32.was wrong? Nigel chooses his own words. I would not rewrite them. It
:24:33. > :24:36.would be a massive advantage to Ukip to have a leader in the House of
:24:37. > :24:38.Commons in time to reply to the budget, Prime Minister's questions
:24:39. > :24:42.and all of that. But we have taken the strategic view that we will
:24:43. > :24:46.fight the Labour Party for the working class vote. It is also true
:24:47. > :24:50.that the Conservatives will make a pitch for the working class vote
:24:51. > :24:55.might as well. All three parties have certain advantages and
:24:56. > :24:59.disadvantages. As part of that page, Nigel Farage said that your leader,
:25:00. > :25:04.Paul Nuttall, should have taken a clear, by which I assume he meant
:25:05. > :25:09.tough, line on immigration. Do you agree? He took a tough line on
:25:10. > :25:14.immigration. He developed that idea at our party conference in the
:25:15. > :25:17.spring. Nigel Farage did not think so? Nigel Farage made his speech
:25:18. > :25:24.before Paul Nuttall made his speech. He said this in the aftermath of the
:25:25. > :25:30.result. Once we have freedom to control and Borders, Paul wants to
:25:31. > :25:33.set up an immigration system that includes an aptitude test, do you
:25:34. > :25:40.have skills that the British economy needs, but also, and attitudes test,
:25:41. > :25:45.do you subscribe to core British values such as gender equality and
:25:46. > :25:48.freedom of expression? We will be making these arguments. It is
:25:49. > :25:53.certainly true that Paul's campaign was thrown off course by,
:25:54. > :25:59.particularly something that we knew the Labour Party had been preparing
:26:00. > :26:01.to run, the smear on the untruths, the implications about Hillsborough.
:26:02. > :26:08.If you knew you should have anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps
:26:09. > :26:12.to bankroll your party, he said that Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the
:26:13. > :26:15.Tory cabal in Europe, by which he means Douglas Carswell, Neil
:26:16. > :26:21.Hamilton. Should they be stripped of their membership? Of course not. As
:26:22. > :26:25.far as I knew, Alan Banks was a member of the Conservative Party
:26:26. > :26:29.formally. I do not know who this Tory cabal is supposed to be. He
:26:30. > :26:33.says that your party is more like a jumble sale than a political party.
:26:34. > :26:39.He says that the party should make him chairman or they will work. What
:26:40. > :26:42.do you see to that? He has made that statement several times over many
:26:43. > :26:47.months, including if you do not throw out your only MP. Douglas
:26:48. > :26:51.Carswell has managed to win twice under Ukip colours. Should Tibi
:26:52. > :26:58.chairman? I think we have an excellent young chairman at the
:26:59. > :27:03.moment. He is doing a good job. The idea that Leave.EU was as smooth
:27:04. > :27:06.running brilliant machine, that does not sit with the facts as I
:27:07. > :27:11.understand them. Suzanne Evans says it would be no great loss for Ukip
:27:12. > :27:16.if Mr Banks walked out, severed his ties and took his money elsewhere.
:27:17. > :27:19.Is she right. I am always happy people who want to give money and
:27:20. > :27:24.support your party want to stay in the party. The best donors donate
:27:25. > :27:29.and do not seek to dictate. If they are experts in certain fields,
:27:30. > :27:32.people should listen to their views but to have a daughter telling the
:27:33. > :27:38.party leader who should be party chairman, that is a nonstarter. You
:27:39. > :27:42.have described your existing party chairman is excellent. He said it
:27:43. > :27:47.could be 20 years before Ukip wins by-election. Is he being too
:27:48. > :27:51.optimistic? There is a general election coming up in the years'
:27:52. > :27:56.time. We will be aiming to win seats in that. Before that, we will be the
:27:57. > :28:01.guard dog for Brexit, to make sure this extraordinary achievement of a
:28:02. > :28:05.little party... You are guard dog without a kennel, you cannot get
:28:06. > :28:10.seat? We're keeping the big establishment parties to do the will
:28:11. > :28:13.of the people. If we achieve nothing else at all, that will be a
:28:14. > :28:15.magnificent achievement. Thank you very much.
:28:16. > :28:17.Sweden isn't somewhere we talk about often
:28:18. > :28:20.should because this week it was pulled into
:28:21. > :28:21.the global spotlight, thanks
:28:22. > :28:30.Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked for referring to an incident that
:28:31. > :28:33.had occurred last night in Sweden as a result of the country's open
:28:34. > :28:37.Critics were quick to point out that no such incident had occurred
:28:38. > :28:40.and Mr Trump later clarified on Twitter and he was talking
:28:41. > :28:43.about a report he had watched on Fox News.
:28:44. > :28:45.But as if to prove he was onto something,
:28:46. > :28:48.next day a riot broke out in a Stockholm suburb
:28:49. > :28:50.with a large migrant population, following unrest in such areas
:28:51. > :29:00.So what has been Sweden's experience of migration?
:29:01. > :29:03.In 2015, a record 162,000 people claimed asylum there, the second
:29:04. > :29:10.That number dropped to 29,000 in 2016 after the country introduced
:29:11. > :29:11.border restrictions and stopped offering permanent
:29:12. > :29:19.Tensions have risen, along with claims of links to crime,
:29:20. > :29:22.although official statistics do not provide evidence of a refugee driven
:29:23. > :29:30.Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump, claiming this week that migrants
:29:31. > :29:33.have led to a dramatic rise in sexual offences.
:29:34. > :29:35.Although the country does have the highest reported
:29:36. > :29:38.rate of rape in Europe, Swedish authorities say recent rises
:29:39. > :29:43.were due to changes to how rape and sex crimes are recorded.
:29:44. > :29:45.Aside from the issue of crime, Sweden has struggled
:29:46. > :29:51.Levels of inequality between natives and migrants when it comes
:29:52. > :29:54.Unemployment rates are three times higher for foreign-born workers
:29:55. > :30:07.We're joined now by Laila Naraghi, she's a Swedish MP from the
:30:08. > :30:09.governing Social Democratic Party, and by the author and
:30:10. > :30:25.The Swedish political establishment was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks,
:30:26. > :30:29.pointing to a riot that hadn't taken place, then a few nights later
:30:30. > :30:34.serious riots did break out in a largely migrant suburb of Stockholm
:30:35. > :30:38.so he wasn't far out, was he? I think he was far out because he is
:30:39. > :30:43.misleading the public with how he uses these statistics. I think it is
:30:44. > :30:47.important to remember that the violence has decreased in Sweden for
:30:48. > :30:51.the past 20 years and research shows there is no evidence that indicate
:30:52. > :30:59.that immigration leads to crime and so I think it is far out. The social
:31:00. > :31:03.unrest in these different areas is not because of their ethical
:31:04. > :31:10.backgrounds of these people living there but more about social economic
:31:11. > :31:14.reasons. OK, no evidence migrants are responsible for any kind of
:31:15. > :31:21.crime? This story reminds me after what happened to the Charlie Hebdo
:31:22. > :31:26.attacks in Paris when also a Fox News commentator said something that
:31:27. > :31:30.was outlandish about Paris and the Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox
:31:31. > :31:35.News, saying you are making our city look bad. It's a bit like that
:31:36. > :31:40.because the truth on this lies between Donald Trump on the Swedish
:31:41. > :31:45.authorities on this. Sweden and Swedish government is very reluctant
:31:46. > :31:48.to admit any downsides of its own migration policy and particularly
:31:49. > :31:54.the migration it hard in 2015 but there are very obvious downsides
:31:55. > :32:00.because Sweden is not a country that needs a non-skilled labour force
:32:01. > :32:05.which doesn't speak Swedish. What was raised as the matter of
:32:06. > :32:09.evidence, what is the evidence? First of all if I can say so the
:32:10. > :32:13.rape statistics in Sweden that have been cited are familiar with the
:32:14. > :32:17.rape statistics across other countries that have seen similar
:32:18. > :32:22.forms of migration. Danish authorities and the Norwegian
:32:23. > :32:27.authorities have recorded a similar thing. It is not done by ethnicity
:32:28. > :32:33.so we don't know. And this is part of the problem. It is again a lot of
:32:34. > :32:38.lies and rumours going about. When it is about for example rape, it is
:32:39. > :32:43.difficult to compare the statistics because in Sweden for example many
:32:44. > :32:48.crimes that in other countries are labelled as bodily harm or assault
:32:49. > :32:53.are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also how it is counted because if a woman
:32:54. > :33:01.goes to the police and reports that her husband or boyfriend has raped
:33:02. > :33:07.her, and done it every night for one year, in Sweden that is counted as
:33:08. > :33:11.365 offences. Something is going wrong, I look at the recent news
:33:12. > :33:14.from Sweden. Six Afghan child refugees committed suicide in the
:33:15. > :33:21.last six months, unemployment among recent migrants now five times
:33:22. > :33:26.higher than among non-migrants. We have seen gang violence in Malmo
:33:27. > :33:31.where a British child was killed by a grenade, rioting in Stockholm.
:33:32. > :33:34.Police in Sweden say there are 53 areas of the country where it is now
:33:35. > :33:41.dangerous to patrol. Something has gone wrong. Let me get back to what
:33:42. > :33:46.I think is the core of this debate if I may and that is the right for
:33:47. > :33:50.people fleeing war and political persecution to seek asylum, that is
:33:51. > :33:55.a human right. In Sweden we don't think we can do everything, but we
:33:56. > :33:59.want to live up to our obligation, every country has an obligation to
:34:00. > :34:05.receive asylum seekers. But you have changed your policy on that because
:34:06. > :34:09.having taken 163,001 year alone, you have then closed your borders, I
:34:10. > :34:14.think very wisely, closed the border which means 10,000 people per day at
:34:15. > :34:19.one point were walking from Denmark in to Malmo, you rightly changed
:34:20. > :34:22.that so he realised whatever ones aspirations in terms of asylum, it
:34:23. > :34:29.sometimes meets reality and Sweden is meeting the reality of this.
:34:30. > :34:32.Let's respond to that. We are not naive, we know we cannot do
:34:33. > :34:36.everything but we want to try to do our share as we think other
:34:37. > :34:41.countries also need to do their share. But let me say that, if you
:34:42. > :34:44.look at what the World Economic Forum is saying about our country
:34:45. > :34:48.they show we are in the top of many rankings, the best country to live
:34:49. > :34:57.in, to age in, to have children in, to start into -- to start
:34:58. > :35:04.enterprise. Why have you not been so good at integrating migrants? The
:35:05. > :35:08.unemployment rate is five times higher among migrants than
:35:09. > :35:12.non-migrants and that's the highest ratio of any country in the EU and
:35:13. > :35:18.the OECD, why have you not been able to integrate the people you have
:35:19. > :35:22.brought in for humanitarian reasons? I'm sure there are things we can do
:35:23. > :35:26.much better of course but if you look for example at the immigration
:35:27. > :35:31.that came in the 90s from the Balkans, they are well integrated
:35:32. > :35:33.and contributing to our society. They are starting enterprises and
:35:34. > :35:41.working in different fields of society, and they help our country.
:35:42. > :35:48.Why have they not got jobs, the migrants that have come in? It takes
:35:49. > :35:53.time. In the 90s we managed it and I'm sure we can do it again. Can I
:35:54. > :35:56.put this into some context, it is clear Sweden has got problems as a
:35:57. > :36:01.result of the number of migrants that come in, whether it is as bad
:36:02. > :36:05.as Mr Trump and others make out is another matter, but perhaps I can
:36:06. > :36:10.put it into context. Malmo, which has been at the centre of many of
:36:11. > :36:16.these migrant problems, its homicide rate is three per hundred thousand.
:36:17. > :36:22.Chicago, 28 per 100,000. It may have problems but they are not huge. No,
:36:23. > :36:27.they are pretty huge and I think they will grow. The Balkan refugees
:36:28. > :36:31.into Sweden in the 90s did bring a lot of problems and Sweden did for
:36:32. > :36:35.the first time see serious ethnic gang rivalries. There was an upsurge
:36:36. > :36:41.in gang-related violence that has gone on since. The situation in
:36:42. > :36:45.Malmo in particular is exaggerated by some people, there's no doubt
:36:46. > :36:48.about that, I have been there many times and it is undoubtedly
:36:49. > :36:54.exaggerated by some, it is also vastly unpersuaded by the Swedish
:36:55. > :37:05.authorities. -- understated. In 2010, one in ten Jews in Malmo
:37:06. > :37:14.registered some form of attack on them. It got so bad that in 2010
:37:15. > :37:18.people offered to escort Jews... You have had a good say and I have got
:37:19. > :37:25.to be fair here, what do you say to that, Laila Naraghi? There are
:37:26. > :37:29.people trying to frame our country in a certain way to push their own
:37:30. > :37:35.agenda. I regret that President Trump is trying to slander our
:37:36. > :37:39.country. But what about the specific point on Malmo? If you speak to
:37:40. > :37:43.people in Malmo and also to different congregations, they say
:37:44. > :37:47.they are working together with the authorities to improve this. I say
:37:48. > :37:52.again, there are a lot of people trying to spread rumours and lies.
:37:53. > :37:57.Your situation is very like the situation we had in Britain when we
:37:58. > :38:02.have these situations in Rotherham and elsewhere. 1400 girls were raped
:38:03. > :38:06.in Rotherham before police even admitted it was going on. That
:38:07. > :38:10.happened in Britain in the last decade, a similar phenomenon. An
:38:11. > :38:14.upsurge in particularly sexual and other forms of violence and then
:38:15. > :38:19.total denial by an entire political class is now something that is
:38:20. > :38:22.happening in Sweden. I see it in Swedish authorities and the denial
:38:23. > :38:27.that comes up and the desire to laugh and dismiss Trump but he's not
:38:28. > :38:34.answer nothing and that's a painful thing for any society to want to
:38:35. > :38:41.admit to. There are number of Swedes who think the establishment is
:38:42. > :38:45.covering up the true statistics, that you don't break crime down by
:38:46. > :38:51.ethnic crimes, people are suspicious of the centre-left and centre-right
:38:52. > :38:54.parties now in Sweden. There is no denial and no cover-up. This is what
:38:55. > :38:58.I'm speaking about when I say people are trying to frame it in a certain
:38:59. > :39:02.way. The social unrest is not because of the ethnical background
:39:03. > :39:06.of the people living there but rather because of different
:39:07. > :39:12.socioeconomics conditions. There is no research that shows
:39:13. > :39:15.immigration... But you don't do the research into it. Swedish
:39:16. > :39:19.authorities deliberately ensure you cannot carry out such research and
:39:20. > :39:23.after the attacks in Cologne in 2015 it was the first time then that the
:39:24. > :39:27.Swedish authorities and press admitted that similar sexual
:39:28. > :39:33.molestation have been going on for years in Sweden. Is it right to
:39:34. > :39:38.think, given the problem is maybe not as bad as many people make out
:39:39. > :39:43.but clearly problems, given these problems, is the age of mass asylum
:39:44. > :39:48.seeking for Sweden over? You have cut the numbers by 80% coming in
:39:49. > :39:53.last year compared with 2015, is it over while you concentrate on
:39:54. > :39:57.getting right the people that you have there already? We want to do
:39:58. > :40:00.our share, we have done a lot and now we are concentrating of course
:40:01. > :40:14.on integration and making sure people get a job, and also
:40:15. > :40:17.on big welfare investments because it's important to remember that for
:40:18. > :40:19.eight years Sweden were governed by a government that prioritised big
:40:20. > :40:23.tax cuts instead of investment in welfare. It may just not work. I am
:40:24. > :40:24.grateful to you both, we have to leave it there.
:40:25. > :40:27.It's coming up to 11:40am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:40:28. > :40:29.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:40:30. > :40:35.the Week Ahead, when we'll be asking if the Government is facing defeat
:40:36. > :40:45.Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.
:40:46. > :40:47.In a few minutes, are human rights in Wales under threat?
:40:48. > :40:49.A leading barrister tells us that UK government plans
:40:50. > :40:53.And all change? How the train arriving in 2018
:40:54. > :41:01.could be very different from the service we get now.
:41:02. > :41:04.But first, Ukip has portrayed itself as a party which can supplant Labour
:41:05. > :41:06.in its heartland seats, but in last week's two by-elections,
:41:07. > :41:12.How will it fare in the local elections in Wales in a few weeks?
:41:13. > :41:14.And has it lost its raison d'etre since the Brexit vote?
:41:15. > :41:22.Its leader in Wales, Neil Hamilton, is here with me now.
:41:23. > :41:37.Good morning. Regarding last week 's by-elections. Paul Nuttall Seeing
:41:38. > :41:49.that they should be winning the seat. But the party failed to do
:41:50. > :41:53.that. I think it was a mistake at thinking that people had voted to
:41:54. > :42:03.leave the European Union was naturally going to mean would also
:42:04. > :42:08.fought for hours in the by-election. Because the Conservative Party are a
:42:09. > :42:17.Brexit bones of sorts, despite having a remain leader, it gets
:42:18. > :42:28.harder for us. We feel to create the sort of momentum we required. The
:42:29. > :42:38.Conservatives know seem to have taken on the mantle of the
:42:39. > :42:52.pro-Brexit party. In many ways, the main selling point of Ukip as
:42:53. > :42:57.vanished. In the last 20 years, the party has become part of the
:42:58. > :43:06.domestic political scene. We need to focus on other issues. One of the
:43:07. > :43:22.things I was focusing on was cutting the aid budget and putting that into
:43:23. > :43:27.the NHS. For people in Stoke Central, the issues were not just
:43:28. > :43:35.the European Union, they were very focused on local issues, such as
:43:36. > :43:43.local hospitals and other services. I think really needed the candidate
:43:44. > :43:52.who was from there, who had plenty of time to get their message across.
:43:53. > :43:59.You said the party was an essential part of British politics. We have
:44:00. > :44:10.six or seven members in the assembly. The Labour Party can only
:44:11. > :44:18.have a majority with the consent of other parties, so we are an
:44:19. > :44:22.important voice in the country. A lot of opinion polls suggest that we
:44:23. > :44:38.were -- we do better now than we did last year. But the party had been
:44:39. > :44:42.rooted in very bitter infighting. We have been involved in all of the
:44:43. > :44:57.debates. As an opposition party, we cannot always get what we want. At
:44:58. > :45:03.the moment, the Labour Party and the Nationalists unable to say that they
:45:04. > :45:11.have been able to do stuff. Ukip cannot do that. Will they have come
:45:12. > :45:16.to mini arrangements over these things. There are some issues which
:45:17. > :45:20.we would be able to influence government policy, but only if they
:45:21. > :45:26.are prepared to bargain with us. If not, they will go elsewhere. But you
:45:27. > :45:34.are not an essential part of the picture then. We are, because in an
:45:35. > :45:39.election, people will vote for us in substantial numbers, based on the
:45:40. > :45:43.last election. That will affect the number of votes that other parties
:45:44. > :45:52.get. We will play an important part in the debate on all the issues. We
:45:53. > :45:55.want to democratise the NHS in the country for example. We want to
:45:56. > :46:11.become more responsive to local needs. An essential election coming
:46:12. > :46:22.up this year, the council elections. While everybody wanting to vote for
:46:23. > :46:26.Ukip across Wales have a chance of doing so? No, we do not have the
:46:27. > :46:37.resources to do that. We will not have candidates setting everywhere.
:46:38. > :46:47.We got 14% in the general election. The Conservatives only got about
:46:48. > :46:55.20%. We would like candidates in every media, but not necessarily in
:46:56. > :47:00.every ward. Is that the problem. You see you are an essential part of the
:47:01. > :47:02.political scene here, but you cannot fumed enough candidates when it
:47:03. > :47:22.comes the likes of council elections. I am mostly just the
:47:23. > :47:38.leader and the Assembly. That is not a formal leader in Wales. I am just
:47:39. > :47:41.operating within the Assembly. You are not filling me with confidence
:47:42. > :47:48.that you are looking forward to the council elections. You say you are
:47:49. > :47:54.talking about domestic issues, it does not get much more domestic than
:47:55. > :47:59.council elections. We are a small party compared to the others. We did
:48:00. > :48:08.not have the infrastructure which has been built up over many
:48:09. > :48:12.generations. It is more for us to spread our resources thinly. But we
:48:13. > :48:21.will do the very best we can to have a major impact. News in the
:48:22. > :48:22.newspapers today that Arron Banks has given an ultimatum to the party
:48:23. > :48:44.leader. What do you think of? He is not even
:48:45. > :48:48.a member of party. He keeps making this assertion that he gives us lots
:48:49. > :48:54.of money. I do not think he is given as money for many years. He made the
:48:55. > :48:59.disastrous intervention is Stoke Central. He is a rich person can
:49:00. > :49:13.just buy anything he wants, so he thinks. He is a man with a big
:49:14. > :49:19.growth and a big green. -- bigmouth. With that split the party? I do not
:49:20. > :49:27.think so. He has been training to do this for a long time. I do not think
:49:28. > :49:40.it would make a major difference. You mentioned at the beginning,
:49:41. > :49:45.trying to take Wales away from other parties. As the direction and trying
:49:46. > :49:54.to take over Labour Party or Conservative Party voters with you?
:49:55. > :50:07.We are having the likes of fairly unique positions on the lakes of
:50:08. > :50:14.over CD. -- overseas E. We think we should cut fuel and electricity
:50:15. > :50:22.bills by upping the subsidies to farmers from the likes of wind
:50:23. > :50:30.farms. We have various very unique positions with regard to the NHS and
:50:31. > :50:33.we need to put their message across. We will do just that.
:50:34. > :50:36.A leading human rights barrister has told this programme human rights
:50:37. > :50:38.in Wales could be eroded, if UK government plans come to pass.
:50:39. > :50:40.Ministers at Westminster have proposed replacing
:50:41. > :50:42.the Human Rights Act, which could curtail the role
:50:43. > :50:46.AMs in Cardiff Bay are now looking into how that could affect Wales,
:50:47. > :50:51.When you think of human rights, what comes to mind?
:50:52. > :50:53.Is it images of refugees or war crimes and torture?
:50:54. > :50:57.Well, it is a field that has an impact on all of our daily lives.
:50:58. > :50:59.Now, with suggestions that Westminster is looking
:51:00. > :51:01.to alter human rights laws, the Assembly in Cardiff Bay
:51:02. > :51:03.is looking at how any such moves might affect Wales.
:51:04. > :51:11.From children to prisoners, human rights laws protect all of us,
:51:12. > :51:14.but there is no denying it is a broad and complex topic.
:51:15. > :51:16.The committee have tried to narrow their inquiry down
:51:17. > :51:19.to three key issues - the impact of Brexit,
:51:20. > :51:21.the possible impact of the UK's government's proposal to repeal
:51:22. > :51:24.the 1998 Human Rights Act and replace it with a Bill of Rights
:51:25. > :51:27.and public perceptions of human rights laws here in Wales.
:51:28. > :51:29.But some are concerned that the pillars which support our
:51:30. > :51:39.way of life, including our human rights, are under threat.
:51:40. > :51:42.Just to put it into some context, there was existing UK legislation
:51:43. > :51:44.dating back to the '70s that protected, for example, employee
:51:45. > :51:52.right against discrimination, so it is important to remember that.
:51:53. > :51:54.But, yes, absolutely, I do think there will be a slow
:51:55. > :51:57.erosion of the existing rights and protections that really is line
:51:58. > :52:11.With many possible changes afoot with regard to human rights laws,
:52:12. > :52:13.the Assembly's Equality Commission is looking at their
:52:14. > :52:17.At a time when there is so much tension, I think, and worry,
:52:18. > :52:20.as to whether people's rights, whether it is at work,
:52:21. > :52:22.whether it is not to be discriminated against,
:52:23. > :52:24.whether it is around the issue of asylum seekers and refugees,
:52:25. > :52:28.there is a lot of worry that some of the inclusive practices we have
:52:29. > :52:31.built in Wales are under threat at the moment because of world
:52:32. > :52:42.events and events in the UK and we have to guard against that.
:52:43. > :52:45.There have been debates about the issue of prisoners' votes
:52:46. > :52:48.and not being able to deport some terrorists, due to human
:52:49. > :52:51.rights laws, do you think there is a problem with public
:52:52. > :52:58.There can be a problem with public perception,
:52:59. > :53:00.but it can mainly come from media sensationalism around
:53:01. > :53:04.I think, if we look at the general experience of people in Wales
:53:05. > :53:06.and well beyond Wales, their everyday lives are improved,
:53:07. > :53:09.their rights are safeguarded and protected by that human rights
:53:10. > :53:26.approach and the international standards that apply.
:53:27. > :53:28.Among the charities who have already responded to the Assembly committee,
:53:29. > :53:38.The Royal National Institute for the Blind said:
:53:39. > :53:48.The Older People's Commisioner for Wales said:
:53:49. > :53:50.Chwarae Teg, which helps women achieve more in the workplace,
:53:51. > :54:06.This gay rights march on Cardiff's Queens Street in 1986,
:54:07. > :54:09.compared with the Pride Parade on the same street in August of last
:54:10. > :54:11.year demonstrates how far LGBT rights have developed over the past
:54:12. > :54:19.30 years, but some are worried much of the progress could be undone.
:54:20. > :54:20.Since the introduction of the Human Rights Act,
:54:21. > :54:23.there have been several rulings in UK and EU courts
:54:24. > :54:27.which have advanced legal protection for LGBT people.
:54:28. > :54:31.Our concern is, that without those protections,
:54:32. > :54:34.we could see progress going back decades.
:54:35. > :54:37.In a week where US President Donald Trump rescinded transgender bathroom
:54:38. > :54:39.rules from the Obama era, do you think this
:54:40. > :54:47.Well, three of the principles of human rights are that
:54:48. > :54:51.they are indivisible, universal and inalienable.
:54:52. > :54:53.We are seeing these principles being attacked on a global scale.
:54:54. > :54:56.We are seeing them being questioned by politicians in the UK and also
:54:57. > :54:59.by the Trump administration, with the idea that it is up to individual
:55:00. > :55:02.states or services to decide whether they respect the rights
:55:03. > :55:07.A Ministry of Justice spokesperson told us,
:55:08. > :55:09."The UK government remains committed to reforming the domestic
:55:10. > :55:11."human rights framework and that they will consider further
:55:12. > :55:19."the Bill of Rights, once Brexit arrangements are finalised."
:55:20. > :55:21.All Assembly laws have to comply with human rights.
:55:22. > :55:25.With Theresa May repeatedly saying tha Britain would be better served
:55:26. > :55:27.by leaving the European Convention on Human Rights,
:55:28. > :55:31.The Equality Committee says their inquiry
:55:32. > :55:34.is instrumental in ensuring that the Assembly will be prepared
:55:35. > :55:41.for whatever changes are made in the future.
:55:42. > :55:44.Now, few things wind people up more than the state of our trains,
:55:45. > :55:47.so how would you like to see Welsh trains run?
:55:48. > :55:49.The franchise for most of the tracks which run in Wales
:55:50. > :55:51.is up for grabs in 2018 and the consultation
:55:52. > :55:55.Some say there is a chance for a once-in-a-lifetime change.
:55:56. > :55:59.One man who knows more than most about trains
:56:00. > :56:13.is Professor Stuart Cole, who is here now.
:56:14. > :56:24.Next year, it is all up for grabs. What could actually change? One
:56:25. > :56:32.company will win the franchise. There are four competitors. The
:56:33. > :56:35.current company Arriva is one of them. They will have the
:56:36. > :56:48.responsibility for running all of the genes within the country. He
:56:49. > :56:57.will be responsible for all the local services. Is this the chance
:56:58. > :57:02.that the Welsh scum and hers to see this is what we want to see this is
:57:03. > :57:10.what you are asked to provide? They have said questions to the Quartet
:57:11. > :57:21.of bidders. That was the first stage of the process. They will have
:57:22. > :57:28.outlined the key strategies. There was a chance for them to pick ideas
:57:29. > :57:34.with regard to the likes of electrification. They have also been
:57:35. > :57:40.asked about frequency, queer the priorities would lie and those would
:57:41. > :57:48.go into what is currently the lilting pot. All the heads of the
:57:49. > :57:52.franchises have been interviewed and the government will then take the
:57:53. > :58:01.best of what they can gain from all over, with regard to affordability.
:58:02. > :58:10.Is there an issue with forcing is forecasting the capacity demand will
:58:11. > :58:18.be in a decade 's time? It is difficult to do that. Things change.
:58:19. > :58:24.The existing franchise was awarded this like 14 years ago. Since then,
:58:25. > :58:36.the number of people on trains has shot up. It has go up by about 8%
:58:37. > :58:46.annually. A lot of things with Robin changes affect demand. The likes of
:58:47. > :58:49.concerns about the environment coming from the amount of cars on
:58:50. > :58:56.the road, things like that have been much more to the forefront in the
:58:57. > :59:02.last 15 years and that has helped push the numbers up. But it is very
:59:03. > :59:07.hard to forecast. The government says it wants to have this
:59:08. > :59:14.not-for-profit model. As a possible to have that sort of winning
:59:15. > :59:22.franchise? The not-for-profit, not for dividend, element could be
:59:23. > :59:31.achieved, in the same way as that is the ethos of transport for London.
:59:32. > :59:46.The law currently requires a private company to run the trains one behalf
:59:47. > :59:56.of transport for wheels. How easy is it to be profitable here? We need so
:59:57. > :00:02.many genes to go over so many people. How easy is it for the
:00:03. > :00:08.government to be able to insist that that all of the healing demands are
:00:09. > :00:15.met from the four franchise is trying to get the contract? It may
:00:16. > :00:28.come down to how much the government is willing to subsidise? A lot of
:00:29. > :00:31.that has to do with that. The government will obviously try and
:00:32. > :00:36.maximise what they can get from each of the train companies. It was to
:00:37. > :00:45.get as much from the train company for itself. But it is not just about
:00:46. > :00:51.purely money for anyone, but also value for money for the customer.
:00:52. > :00:55.Those are the kinds of questions that will be asked. That is what the
:00:56. > :01:00.companies have been asked to answer solutions to. They will be looking
:01:01. > :01:09.at the bottom line, the profit margins. That is the way it works.
:01:10. > :01:17.In present legislation, that has to be a private company and they all
:01:18. > :01:20.have to be within the United Kingdom bidding for a government contract.
:01:21. > :01:25.If the government has for too much and the company says they cannot do
:01:26. > :01:31.that, will thus have to go back to the consultation fees because some
:01:32. > :01:40.of them walk away? There is a possibility of the problem. A lot of
:01:41. > :01:49.extra research work has had to be done the market and into the issue
:01:50. > :01:59.of taking over other potential lanes. Whether or not companies
:02:00. > :02:04.would pull out of a stage or come around and said it will give as a
:02:05. > :02:13.500 million subsidy with as we think it needs to be 700 million, they
:02:14. > :02:18.would either say they have to either find additional funding or start the
:02:19. > :02:29.whole process again. I think someone will find it acceptable to find it,
:02:30. > :02:37.to run the service that we may want in the way the government wants. It
:02:38. > :02:41.is very much a matter of how much money can be pulled out here for
:02:42. > :02:52.this. If they can pool at the amounts of money, they are talking
:02:53. > :03:01.about brand-new trains. We have got trains which are 40 years old. We
:03:02. > :03:09.have got all that trains. If it is to be transformational, we need new
:03:10. > :03:14.trains, additional frequency and a fleet which is workable and achieve
:03:15. > :03:20.all of the things the passengers require in the passenger experience.
:03:21. > :03:29.That is what they should be looking at. Is that possible with the
:03:30. > :03:31.profitability framework of the company and coupled with the
:03:32. > :03:33.government subsidy? This programme, of course,
:03:34. > :03:35.unlike some trains, always runs exactly on time!
:03:36. > :03:54.That is it for another week. Welcome back. Article 50, which
:03:55. > :03:59.triggers the beginning of Britain leaving the European Union and start
:04:00. > :04:04.negotiations, is winding its way through the Lords in this coming
:04:05. > :04:10.week. Tarzan has made an intervention, let's just see the
:04:11. > :04:15.headline from the Mail on Sunday. Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine,
:04:16. > :04:18.my fightback starts here, he is going to defy Theresa May. I divide
:04:19. > :04:23.one Prime Minister over the poll tax, I'm ready to defy this one in
:04:24. > :04:28.the Lords over Brexit. There we go, that's going to happen this week. We
:04:29. > :04:33.will see how far he gets. I don't think he will get very far, I don't
:04:34. > :04:38.think Loyalist Tory MPs and Brexiteers are quaking in their
:04:39. > :04:42.boots at the prospect of a rebellion led by Michael Heseltine. I sense
:04:43. > :04:46.that many Tory MPs are already moving on to the next question about
:04:47. > :04:51.Brexit, and the discussion over how much it will cost us to come out.
:04:52. > :04:57.The fact they are already debating that suggests to me they feel things
:04:58. > :05:01.will go fairly smoothly in terms of the legislation. When I spoke to the
:05:02. > :05:06.Labour leader in the Lords last week on the daily politics, she said she
:05:07. > :05:13.was going to push hard for the kind of amendments Lord has all-time is
:05:14. > :05:19.talking about and they would bring that back to the Commons. But if the
:05:20. > :05:22.Commons pinged it back to the Lords with the amendments taken out, she
:05:23. > :05:29.made it clear that was the end of it. Is that right? That's about
:05:30. > :05:33.right. This is probably really a large destruction. There will be to
:05:34. > :05:39.micro issues that come up in the Lords, one is on the future of EU
:05:40. > :05:44.nationals, that could be voted on as soon as this Wednesday, and then the
:05:45. > :05:48.main vote in the Lords on a week on Tuesday, when there is this question
:05:49. > :05:52.of what sort of vote will MPs and peers get at the end of the Brexit
:05:53. > :05:56.process and that is what has all-time is talking about. He wants
:05:57. > :06:01.to make sure there are guarantees in place. The kind of things peers are
:06:02. > :06:03.looking for are pretty moderate and the Government have hinted they
:06:04. > :06:09.could deliver on both of them already. But they are still not
:06:10. > :06:15.prepared... Amber Rudd said they were not prepared... They may say
:06:16. > :06:20.yes we are going to do that but they won't allow whatever that is to be
:06:21. > :06:24.enshrined in the legislation. The question is whether we think this is
:06:25. > :06:27.dancing on the head of a pin. The Government have already promised
:06:28. > :06:30.something in the House of Commons, but will they write it down, I don't
:06:31. > :06:35.think that's the biggest problem in the world. In a sense this is a
:06:36. > :06:41.great magicians trick by Theresa May because it is not the most important
:06:42. > :06:44.thing. The most important thing in Brexit is going on in those
:06:45. > :06:47.committees behind closed doors when they are trying to work out what the
:06:48. > :06:51.next migration system is for Britain and there are some interesting,
:06:52. > :06:56.indeed toxic proposals, but at the moment Downing Street are happy to
:06:57. > :07:02.let us talk about the constitutional propriety of what MPs are doing over
:07:03. > :07:06.the next eight days. It seems to me the irony is that if we had a second
:07:07. > :07:11.chamber that can claim some kind of democratic legitimacy, which the one
:07:12. > :07:16.we have cannot, it would be able to cause the Government more trouble on
:07:17. > :07:19.this, it would be more robust. Absolutely. I saw the interview we
:07:20. > :07:28.did with the Labour Leader of the Lords, they are very conscious, of
:07:29. > :07:33.the fact they are not elected and have limited powers. She was clear
:07:34. > :07:37.to you they would not impede the timetable for triggering Article 50
:07:38. > :07:42.so we might get a bit of theatre, Michael Heseltine might deliver a
:07:43. > :07:47.brilliant speech. It is interesting that Euroscepticism gun under
:07:48. > :07:52.Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party but two offer senior ministers Ken
:07:53. > :07:55.Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the most prominent opponents now but
:07:56. > :07:59.they will change nothing at this point. She will have the space to
:08:00. > :08:04.trigger Article 50 within her timetable. Let's move on. Let me
:08:05. > :08:10.show you a picture tweeted by Nigel Farage.
:08:11. > :08:18.That is Nigel Farage and a small group of people having dinner, and
:08:19. > :08:21.within that small group of people is the president of the United States,
:08:22. > :08:27.and it was taken in the last couple of days. This would suggest that if
:08:28. > :08:32.he can command that amount of the President's time in a small group of
:08:33. > :08:37.people, then he's actually rather close to the president. Make no
:08:38. > :08:40.mistake about it, Nigel Farage is now to and fro Washington more
:08:41. > :08:48.regularly than perhaps he is here. Hopefully that LBC programme is
:08:49. > :08:53.recorded over in the state. He's not only close to the president but to a
:08:54. > :08:57.series of people within the administration. That relationship
:08:58. > :09:01.there is a remarkable one and one to keep an eye on. Will the main
:09:02. > :09:08.government be tempted to tap into that relationship at any time or is
:09:09. > :09:14.it just seething with anger? You can feel a ripple of discontentment over
:09:15. > :09:18.this. We are in the middle of negotiating the state visit and the
:09:19. > :09:22.sort of pomp and circumstance and what kind of greeting Britain should
:09:23. > :09:26.give Donald Trump when he comes over later in the year. There is a great
:09:27. > :09:31.deal of neurotic thought going into what that should look like, but one
:09:32. > :09:34.of the most interesting things about our relationship with Donald Trump
:09:35. > :09:37.is that there is a nervousness among some Cabinet ministers that we are
:09:38. > :09:42.being seen to go too far, too fast with the prospect of a trade deal.
:09:43. > :09:46.Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet ministers, they worry we won't get a
:09:47. > :09:50.very good trade deal with the US and we are tolerably placing a lot of
:09:51. > :09:54.stalled by it. When we see the kind of deal they want to pitch with us
:09:55. > :10:02.there might be some pulling back and that could be an awkward moment in
:10:03. > :10:05.terms of our relationship, and no doubt Nigel at that term -- at that
:10:06. > :10:11.point will accuse the UK of doing the dirty on Donald Trump. If there
:10:12. > :10:19.was a deal, would they get it through the House of Commons? Nigel
:10:20. > :10:23.Farage is having dinner with the president, not bad as a kind of
:10:24. > :10:27.lifestyle but he's politically rootless, he won't be an MEP much
:10:28. > :10:31.longer so if you look at where is his political base to build on this
:10:32. > :10:36.great time he's having, there is one. Given that there is one I think
:10:37. > :10:40.he's just having a great time and it isn't much more significant than
:10:41. > :10:52.that. No? There's a lot to be said for having a great time. You are
:10:53. > :10:58.having a great time. Let's just look, because of the dominance of
:10:59. > :11:03.the Government we kind of it nor there are problems piling up, only
:11:04. > :11:08.what, ten days with the Budget to go, piling up for Mrs May and her
:11:09. > :11:14.government. The business rates which has alarmed a lot of Tories, this
:11:15. > :11:18.disability cuts which are really a serious problem for the Government,
:11:19. > :11:23.and the desperate need for more money for social care. There are
:11:24. > :11:26.other issues, there are problems there and they involve spending
:11:27. > :11:30.money. Absolutely and some people argue Theresa May has only one
:11:31. > :11:35.Monday and that is to deliver Brexit but it is impossible as a Prime
:11:36. > :11:41.Minister to ignore everything else. And she doesn't want to either. The
:11:42. > :11:45.bubbling issue of social care and the NHS is the biggest single
:11:46. > :11:49.problem for her in the weeks and months ahead, she has got to come up
:11:50. > :11:54.with something. And Mr Hammond will have to loosen his belt a little
:11:55. > :11:58.bit. I think he will in relation to the NHS, he didn't mention it in the
:11:59. > :12:02.Autumn Statement, which was remarkable, and he cannot get away
:12:03. > :12:05.with not mentioning it this time. If he mentions it, it has to be in a
:12:06. > :12:10.positive context in some way or another and it is one example of
:12:11. > :12:14.many. She is both strong because she is so far ahead in the opinion
:12:15. > :12:18.polls, but this in tray is one of the most daunting a Prime Minister
:12:19. > :12:24.has faced in recent times I think. Here is what will happen on Budget
:12:25. > :12:31.day, money will be more money, magically found down the back of the
:12:32. > :12:36.Treasury sofa. The projections are that he has wiggle room of about 12
:12:37. > :12:39.billion. But look at the bills, rebels involved in business rates
:12:40. > :12:45.suggest the Chancellor will have to throw up ?2 billion at that problem.
:12:46. > :12:48.3.7 billion is the potential cost of this judgment about disability
:12:49. > :12:54.benefits. The Government will try to find different ways of satisfying it
:12:55. > :12:58.but who knows. It will not popular. I'm not sure they will throw money
:12:59. > :13:01.at the NHS, they want an interim settlement on social care which will
:13:02. > :13:07.alleviate pressure on the NHS but they feel... That's another couple
:13:08. > :13:11.of billion by the way. They feel in the Treasury that the NHS has not
:13:12. > :13:19.delivered on what Simon Stevens promised them. But here is the
:13:20. > :13:23.bigger problem for Philip Hammond, he has two This year and he thinks
:13:24. > :13:25.the second one in the autumn is more important because that is when
:13:26. > :13:27.people will feel the cost living squeeze.
:13:28. > :13:31.The Daily Politics is back at noon on BBC Two tomorrow.
:13:32. > :13:34.We'll be back here at the same time next week.
:13:35. > :13:40.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.