:00:39. > :00:44.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:45. > :00:46.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:47. > :00:49.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:50. > :00:52.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:53. > :00:57.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:58. > :01:00.but where is that threat coming from?
:01:01. > :01:03.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:04. > :01:07.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:08. > :01:13.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:14. > :01:15.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:16. > :01:23.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:24. > :01:25.Leanne Wood on council elections,
:01:26. > :01:28.And Neil McEvoy, And what's in the box?
:01:29. > :01:39.What can Wales expect from this week's budget?
:01:40. > :01:42.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:43. > :01:45.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:46. > :01:48.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:49. > :01:51.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:52. > :01:54.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:55. > :01:56.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:57. > :02:02.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:02:03. > :02:07.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:08. > :02:09.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:10. > :02:13.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:14. > :02:16.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:17. > :02:18.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:19. > :02:23.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:24. > :02:26.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:27. > :02:38.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:39. > :02:44.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:45. > :02:49.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:50. > :02:51.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:52. > :03:03.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:04. > :03:08.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:09. > :03:12.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:13. > :03:16.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:17. > :03:22.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:23. > :03:26.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:27. > :03:32.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:33. > :03:36.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:37. > :03:40.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:41. > :03:46.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:47. > :03:52.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:53. > :03:59.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:04:00. > :04:03.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:04. > :04:06.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:07. > :04:13.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:14. > :04:17.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:18. > :04:21.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:22. > :04:25.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:26. > :04:31.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:32. > :04:35.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:36. > :04:38.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:39. > :04:45.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:46. > :04:50.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:51. > :04:55.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:56. > :04:59.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:05:00. > :05:04.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:05. > :05:08.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:09. > :05:13.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:14. > :05:18.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:19. > :05:21.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:22. > :05:26.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:27. > :05:31.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:32. > :05:37.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:38. > :05:43.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:44. > :05:49.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:50. > :05:53.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:54. > :05:59.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:06:00. > :06:05.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:06. > :06:11.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:12. > :06:15.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:16. > :06:19.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:20. > :06:25.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:26. > :06:31.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:32. > :06:35.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:36. > :06:40.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:41. > :06:45.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:46. > :06:52.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:53. > :06:58.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:59. > :07:04.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:05. > :07:08.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:09. > :07:12.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:13. > :07:16.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:17. > :07:19.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:20. > :07:25.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:26. > :07:30.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:31. > :07:34.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:35. > :07:36.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:37. > :07:39.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:40. > :07:42.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:43. > :07:45.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:46. > :07:48.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:49. > :07:51.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:52. > :07:56.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:57. > :08:00.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:08:01. > :08:05.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:06. > :08:07.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:08. > :08:11.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:12. > :08:16.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:17. > :08:18."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:19. > :08:20.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:21. > :08:23.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:24. > :08:27.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:28. > :08:37.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:38. > :08:43.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:44. > :08:47.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:48. > :08:48.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:49. > :08:51.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:52. > :08:54.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:55. > :09:00.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:09:01. > :09:04.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:05. > :09:07.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:08. > :09:14.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:15. > :09:17.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:18. > :09:23.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:24. > :09:27.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:28. > :09:34.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:35. > :09:41.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:42. > :09:47.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:48. > :09:51.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:52. > :09:55.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:56. > :09:59.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:10:00. > :10:04.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:05. > :10:08.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:09. > :10:14.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:15. > :10:22.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:23. > :10:28.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:29. > :10:32.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:33. > :10:37.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:38. > :10:45.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:46. > :10:50.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:51. > :10:54.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:55. > :10:59.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:11:00. > :11:03.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:04. > :11:08.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:09. > :11:13.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:14. > :11:18.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:19. > :11:23.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:24. > :11:27.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:28. > :11:32.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:33. > :11:35.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:36. > :11:42.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:43. > :11:49.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:50. > :11:53.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:54. > :11:59.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:12:00. > :12:06.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:07. > :12:09.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:10. > :12:14.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:15. > :12:18.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:19. > :12:24.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:25. > :12:29.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:30. > :12:34.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:35. > :12:38.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:39. > :12:43.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:44. > :12:47.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:48. > :12:53.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:54. > :12:58.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:59. > :13:04.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:05. > :13:11.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:12. > :13:16.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:17. > :13:21.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:22. > :13:25.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:26. > :13:29.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:30. > :13:36.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:37. > :13:42.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:43. > :13:48.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:49. > :13:50.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:51. > :13:57.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:58. > :14:04.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:05. > :14:08.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:09. > :14:12.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:13. > :14:17.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:18. > :14:20.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:21. > :14:26.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:27. > :14:30.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:31. > :14:35.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:36. > :14:40.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:41. > :14:44.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:45. > :14:51.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:52. > :14:55.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:56. > :15:00.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:15:01. > :15:09.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:10. > :15:10.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:11. > :15:19.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:20. > :15:23.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:24. > :15:28.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:29. > :15:33.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:34. > :15:39.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:40. > :15:42.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:43. > :15:45.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:46. > :15:52.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:53. > :15:58.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:59. > :16:04.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:05. > :16:08.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:09. > :16:13.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:14. > :16:20.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:21. > :16:27.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:28. > :16:31.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:32. > :16:34.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:35. > :16:39.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:40. > :16:45.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:46. > :16:49.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:50. > :16:54.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:55. > :17:01.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:17:02. > :17:06.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:07. > :17:14.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:15. > :17:20.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:21. > :17:26.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:27. > :17:31.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:32. > :17:35.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:36. > :17:38.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:39. > :17:41.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:42. > :17:46.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:47. > :17:51.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:52. > :17:57.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:58. > :18:11.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:12. > :18:14.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:15. > :18:20.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:21. > :18:26.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:27. > :18:31.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:32. > :18:36.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:37. > :18:43.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:44. > :18:49.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:50. > :18:54.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:55. > :18:58.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:59. > :19:07.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:08. > :19:10.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:11. > :19:13.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:14. > :19:14.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:15. > :19:17.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:18. > :19:23.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:24. > :19:28.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:29. > :19:31.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:32. > :19:33.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:34. > :19:35.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:36. > :19:44.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:45. > :19:52.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:53. > :20:02.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:20:03. > :20:04.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:05. > :20:08.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:09. > :20:10.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:11. > :20:13.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:14. > :20:15.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:16. > :20:19.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:20. > :20:22.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:23. > :20:26.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:27. > :20:29.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:30. > :20:32.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:33. > :20:36.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:37. > :20:39.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:40. > :20:44.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:45. > :20:47.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:48. > :20:50.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:51. > :20:53.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:54. > :20:56.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:57. > :21:04.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:05. > :21:07.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:08. > :21:10.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:11. > :21:17.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:18. > :21:25.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:26. > :21:29.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:30. > :21:33.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:34. > :21:36.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:37. > :21:38.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:39. > :21:40.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:41. > :21:45.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:46. > :21:48.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:49. > :21:51.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:52. > :21:55.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:56. > :22:00.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:22:01. > :22:05.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:06. > :22:08.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:09. > :22:11.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:12. > :22:13.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:14. > :22:22.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:23. > :22:25.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:26. > :22:28.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:29. > :22:35.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:36. > :22:44.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:45. > :22:47.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:48. > :22:50.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:51. > :22:53.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:54. > :22:56.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:57. > :23:04.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:05. > :23:11.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:12. > :23:13.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:14. > :23:16.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:17. > :23:21.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:22. > :23:24.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:25. > :23:27.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:28. > :23:30.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:31. > :23:36.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:37. > :23:43.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:44. > :23:45.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:46. > :24:00.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:24:01. > :24:06.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:07. > :24:11.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:12. > :24:15.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:16. > :24:19.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:20. > :24:24.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:25. > :24:29.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:30. > :24:31.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:32. > :24:37.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:38. > :24:44.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:45. > :24:49.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:50. > :24:52.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:53. > :24:56.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:57. > :25:00.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:25:01. > :25:06.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:07. > :25:09.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:10. > :25:14.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:15. > :25:18.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:19. > :25:22.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:23. > :25:26.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:27. > :25:31.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:32. > :25:34.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:35. > :25:40.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:41. > :25:45.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:46. > :25:51.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:52. > :25:57.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:58. > :26:01.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:26:02. > :26:04.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:05. > :26:24.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:25. > :26:30.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:31. > :26:35.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:36. > :26:39.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:40. > :26:45.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:46. > :26:49.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:50. > :26:53.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:54. > :27:01.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:27:02. > :27:11.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:12. > :27:14.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:15. > :27:19.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:20. > :27:25.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:26. > :27:29.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:30. > :27:33.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:34. > :27:37.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:38. > :27:44.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:45. > :27:49.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:50. > :27:57.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:58. > :28:04.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:05. > :28:08.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:09. > :28:13.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:14. > :28:20.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:21. > :28:26.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:27. > :28:30.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:31. > :28:32.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:33. > :28:40.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:41. > :28:48.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:49. > :28:53.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:54. > :28:58.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:59. > :29:06.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:07. > :29:11.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:12. > :29:20.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:21. > :29:24.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:25. > :29:31.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:32. > :29:37.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:38. > :29:42.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:43. > :29:46.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:47. > :29:49.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:50. > :29:55.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:56. > :30:00.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:30:01. > :30:03.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:04. > :30:11.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:12. > :30:13.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:14. > :30:26.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:27. > :30:30.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:31. > :30:33.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:34. > :30:39.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:40. > :30:45.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:46. > :30:52.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:53. > :30:56.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:57. > :31:02.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:31:03. > :31:08.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:09. > :31:16.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:17. > :31:19.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:20. > :31:23.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:24. > :31:28.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:29. > :31:33.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:34. > :31:37.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:38. > :31:45.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:46. > :31:49.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:50. > :31:53.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:54. > :31:57.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:58. > :32:01.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:32:02. > :32:05.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:06. > :32:09.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:10. > :32:12.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:13. > :32:15.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:16. > :32:19.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:20. > :32:22.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:23. > :32:25.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:26. > :32:31.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:32. > :32:33.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:34. > :32:39.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:40. > :32:42.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:43. > :32:48.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:49. > :32:51.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:52. > :32:56.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:57. > :33:00.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:33:01. > :33:06.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:07. > :33:11.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:12. > :33:16.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:17. > :33:20.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:21. > :33:23.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:24. > :33:30.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:31. > :33:35.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:36. > :33:42.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:43. > :33:46.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:47. > :33:51.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:52. > :33:57.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:58. > :34:02.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:03. > :34:07.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:08. > :34:10.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:11. > :34:15.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:16. > :34:20.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:21. > :34:25.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:26. > :34:29.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:30. > :34:37.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:38. > :34:40.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:41. > :34:47.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:48. > :34:51.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:52. > :34:56.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:57. > :35:01.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:35:02. > :35:05.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:06. > :35:10.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:11. > :35:15.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:16. > :35:18.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:19. > :35:23.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:24. > :35:28.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:29. > :35:32.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:33. > :35:36.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:37. > :35:42.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:43. > :35:46.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:47. > :35:50.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:51. > :35:55.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:56. > :35:59.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:36:00. > :36:03.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:04. > :36:08.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:09. > :36:12.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:13. > :36:17.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:18. > :36:23.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:24. > :36:30.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:31. > :36:36.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:37. > :36:41.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:42. > :36:46.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:47. > :36:51.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:52. > :36:55.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:56. > :37:00.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:37:01. > :37:03.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:04. > :37:09.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:10. > :37:14.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:15. > :37:20.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:21. > :37:25.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:26. > :37:31.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:32. > :37:34.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:35. > :37:40.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:41. > :37:45.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:46. > :37:50.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:51. > :37:54.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:55. > :37:58.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:59. > :38:04.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:05. > :38:09.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:10. > :38:13.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:14. > :38:21.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:22. > :38:28.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:29. > :38:33.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:34. > :38:39.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:40. > :38:40.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:41. > :38:42.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:43. > :38:44.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:45. > :38:47.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in twenty
:38:48. > :38:56.minutes, the Week Ahead. Hello and welcome to
:38:57. > :38:58.the Sunday Politics Wales. Everyone wants
:38:59. > :39:02.a bit of what's in the red box, but how does Wales ensure it
:39:03. > :39:05.gets its fair share? With Brexit set to be
:39:06. > :39:12.triggered soon, where does Labour's Derek Vaughan
:39:13. > :39:20.will be here live. But first, Plaid Cymru kicked off
:39:21. > :39:22.the Spring conference season The party was keen to discuss
:39:23. > :39:27.the upcoming council elections, a bit of Brexit, and its proposals
:39:28. > :39:30.to increase income tax to pay But the event was overshadowed
:39:31. > :39:44.after one AM, Neil McEvoy, was suspended as a councillor
:39:45. > :39:47.for bullying an official, and other AMs saying he should be
:39:48. > :39:49.suspended from the party. As the conference ended,
:39:50. > :39:51.our political editor Nick Servini, caught up with the party leader,
:39:52. > :39:53.Leanne Wood, and began Well, Leanne Wood, welcome
:39:54. > :39:57.to Sunday Politics Wales. Let's start off with really the big
:39:58. > :40:00.story of the day which is Now, the problem for
:40:01. > :40:04.you is, in an official complaint of bullying has been
:40:05. > :40:12.upheld and you yourself campaigned so strongly against bullying,
:40:13. > :40:15.you are going to have to take some Let me put it straight
:40:16. > :40:20.to you, we are very serious about the way
:40:21. > :40:24.in which we take bullying and this matter has been referred
:40:25. > :40:27.to the party chair and he is now undertaking a process
:40:28. > :40:31.and I take internal processes very, And because there is
:40:32. > :40:37.a process going, I am not at liberty to comment any further
:40:38. > :40:40.on this case and so it is a matter But, look, you know
:40:41. > :40:50.the accusations that will come your way, you've already had it from
:40:51. > :40:53.Rhianon Passmore, Labour AM, saying by allowing him to speak today,
:40:54. > :40:55.you have condoned bullying. Well, the conference
:40:56. > :40:57.timetable was as it was and the party chair and
:40:58. > :40:59.the conference steering committee is a process ongoing now
:41:00. > :41:09.and I don't want to comment any Just on the process of caught up
:41:10. > :41:14.with the timing on this, there are only two eventualities
:41:15. > :41:15.from this adjudication You knew the conference,
:41:16. > :41:19.why wasn't the process quicker because you could have
:41:20. > :41:20.dealt with this? We have got our conference this
:41:21. > :41:23.weekend, the priority is our conference and the smooth running
:41:24. > :41:26.of our conference and other matters will be dealt with by the party
:41:27. > :41:29.chair through due process and I'm not going to comment
:41:30. > :41:31.on this any more. Big focus this weekend
:41:32. > :41:33.was the council elections, Now, you lead in four local
:41:34. > :41:37.authorities at the moment, what are you targeting and how many
:41:38. > :41:40.councils are you going My target is to get
:41:41. > :41:43.as many councillors as we possibly can in parts
:41:44. > :41:46.of the country where we might not have had councillors before,
:41:47. > :41:48.as well as those We are leading in four local
:41:49. > :41:52.authorities, as you have said. We've got a strong record in those
:41:53. > :41:56.four local authorities and we have This local election
:41:57. > :42:05.campaign is going to be a There are numerous different things
:42:06. > :42:10.that could happen at that local The key thing for Plaid Cymru
:42:11. > :42:14.is that we get out there and We don't have the same media
:42:15. > :42:18.coverage as some other parties might get so those doorstep conversations,
:42:19. > :42:22.two-way dialogue, really, really important and that has been one
:42:23. > :42:25.of my messages to our delegates here this weekend, if you want to see
:42:26. > :42:28.Plaid Cymru strong in the local elections in May, get out
:42:29. > :42:37.there and knocks on doors. And really you are going to be up
:42:38. > :42:41.against Labour in so I wonder to what extent are
:42:42. > :42:46.you hamstrung in this fight against Labour by the fact that you have got
:42:47. > :42:49.a very close working relationship We are using every
:42:50. > :42:57.opportunity to get as many of Plaid Cymru's manifesto commitments
:42:58. > :43:00.through and we won serious gains for people in communities right
:43:01. > :43:03.throughout Wales in the last budget Look at the example
:43:04. > :43:07.of the new drugs and The First Minister said that
:43:08. > :43:13.wasn't possible before the election and Plaid Cymru has used
:43:14. > :43:17.our influence to make that happen and that's a real concrete gain for
:43:18. > :43:20.people who are suffering from cancer So, you know, I think
:43:21. > :43:25.it's really important that we are constructive
:43:26. > :43:28.and that we use our time as opposition party
:43:29. > :43:37.to try and bring about change and
:43:38. > :43:40.improvement for people's lives and Whilst at the same
:43:41. > :43:43.time as holding the I just wonder, are you
:43:44. > :43:48.tempted at all when you look at a result like Copland,
:43:49. > :43:51.and you look at the real vulnerability that Labour
:43:52. > :43:54.are in at the moment, and you think, they may not be in such a state ever
:43:55. > :43:56.again and that there you are supporting
:43:57. > :43:58.them in Cardiff Bay. Do you ever get a sense
:43:59. > :44:01.of maybe now is the time to go full, full
:44:02. > :44:03.on opposition against that? Well, I would argue
:44:04. > :44:06.that we are full on opposition. If you watch First
:44:07. > :44:07.Minister's Question Time and other debates in the assembly,
:44:08. > :44:10.you will see how critical Yes, but it's not
:44:11. > :44:13.full on opposition, You don't make life that tough
:44:14. > :44:17.for them because you allow them to get their budgets
:44:18. > :44:19.through every year. Well, we are gaining things,
:44:20. > :44:21.improvements in people's lives in There may be budget deals
:44:22. > :44:26.in the future, we are not signed up to anything
:44:27. > :44:28.beyond that first budget deal. We have a compact with Labour
:44:29. > :44:31.in the assembly that -- but these local elections are
:44:32. > :44:34.going to be fought on local issues. Already people are talking
:44:35. > :44:35.about things like local services, the concerns about
:44:36. > :44:38.losing their libraries, paddling pools, day centres, you name it,
:44:39. > :44:44.people want something different to happen and they understand the
:44:45. > :44:47.budget difficulties but people are prepared, I think, to come together
:44:48. > :44:52.more now and provide those services that have been taken away from them
:44:53. > :44:55.themselves in a self-sufficient way. In a way, like we haven't seen
:44:56. > :45:04.before, and Plaid Cymru councils will enable communties to come
:45:05. > :45:07.together and do that. One of the big policies,
:45:08. > :45:09.ideas later today, increase, potential
:45:10. > :45:10.increase anyway in income tax to pay for health
:45:11. > :45:11.and education is an indication
:45:12. > :45:14.of the new financial powers that are going to be devolved
:45:15. > :45:16.in the future years, not a great message
:45:17. > :45:18.at the moment, is it? Plaid, the party is going
:45:19. > :45:21.to put your taxes up. Well, we are consulting
:45:22. > :45:24.on this best of all. We want to take the
:45:25. > :45:27.temperature and see what people think about it but we
:45:28. > :45:31.have to have an honest conversation about how we fund
:45:32. > :45:32.our public services The education system could do
:45:33. > :45:37.with an injection of cash. We have got a growing
:45:38. > :45:40.elderly population and care How are we going to do
:45:41. > :45:52.all of this if people aren't prepared to
:45:53. > :45:53.consider extra taxes? Now, of course nobody wants
:45:54. > :45:56.to pay any taxes, do they? But if we want good
:45:57. > :45:58.public services, we have to be prepared to pay for them
:45:59. > :46:02.and we have to have an honest Now, I can see you would
:46:03. > :46:05.want to raise taxes for the highest earners
:46:06. > :46:07.but you are talking about across the board
:46:08. > :46:08.here There aren't many highest
:46:09. > :46:11.earners in Wales. We are talking about a very
:46:12. > :46:13.small number of people. So you'd be happy to talk about
:46:14. > :46:16.increase in taxes for really low I'm not saying I'm happy,
:46:17. > :46:20.what I want to do is guarantee a future for our health
:46:21. > :46:23.service in Wales and I can't see how we can guarantee that future
:46:24. > :46:25.without investing in those Leanne Wood, thanks
:46:26. > :46:28.very much indeed. This week there'll
:46:29. > :46:30.be a new man opening Philip Hammond isn't known
:46:31. > :46:33.for flamboyant gestures, and he may not have much to play
:46:34. > :46:36.with when he announces his All the hard work will already have
:46:37. > :46:40.been completed by now, of course, so how does Wales ensure it gets
:46:41. > :46:43.a fair crack of the whip? David Cornock now on getting a good
:46:44. > :46:48.deal from the Budget. From David Lloyd George's people's
:46:49. > :47:02.budget to George Osborne's so-called omnishambles, budget day combines
:47:03. > :47:04.political theatre with dry I mean, Gordon brought
:47:05. > :47:10.in the prebudget report And whoever waves that red box
:47:11. > :47:14.to the cameras, their Well, budget day is a hugely
:47:15. > :47:18.important event in the political calendar and the challenge for
:47:19. > :47:21.Secretary of State for Wales and his team of ministers and officials is
:47:22. > :47:24.to make that date matter for Wales. Stephen Crabb was a member of David
:47:25. > :47:31.Cameron's government for six years. He says a Prime Minister
:47:32. > :47:33.may want eye-catching announcements but it
:47:34. > :47:37.is the Treasury that ultimately
:47:38. > :47:40.has to pay for them. So this is really
:47:41. > :47:42.where the battle is. How do you convince
:47:43. > :47:45.the Treasury in cold economic arguments and warm, colourful
:47:46. > :47:46.political arguments why certain So, in my day, we talked
:47:47. > :47:50.to them about the Cardiff city deal, about slashing
:47:51. > :47:52.the tolls on the Severn bridge, about investing
:47:53. > :47:53.in the upgrade of the M4 motorway,
:47:54. > :47:56.rail electrification, it's all these kind of big,
:47:57. > :47:59.chunky projects that we were engaged with with Number Ten Downing
:48:00. > :48:01.Street and the Treasury. And, like I say, it's
:48:02. > :48:03.about winning hearts and Some of those chunky projects
:48:04. > :48:07.are still works in progress, as But that doesn't mean Philip Hammond
:48:08. > :48:14.finds himself short of advice. The business and
:48:15. > :48:22.enterprise department is still considering a review it
:48:23. > :48:24.commissioned which backed the And if that is not ready, what about
:48:25. > :48:32.the Swansea bay city deal? Ministers sent in Lord Heseltine
:48:33. > :48:35.to check plans to bring in investment to the land
:48:36. > :48:36.of his fathers. And the Chancellor did drop a hint
:48:37. > :48:39.of progress to MPs last Well, Mr Speaker, this
:48:40. > :48:42.discussion is still ongoing. I hope we may bring
:48:43. > :48:44.it to a conclusion within, let's say,
:48:45. > :48:47.the next eight days. Local authorities in that area,
:48:48. > :48:50.as a part of that region deal and universities and key stakeholders
:48:51. > :48:54.have been working hard on their proposals, the plan has been
:48:55. > :48:56.published and provided I think there's some concern
:48:57. > :49:04.the region that perhaps the UK Government is sitting on it it
:49:05. > :49:07.a bit and I would like to see confirmation one way or the other
:49:08. > :49:10.on that as soon as possible. Brexit may dominate
:49:11. > :49:13.politics at the moment that -- but no Chancellor
:49:14. > :49:16.here at the Treasury can afford that force themselves
:49:17. > :49:21.into his budget red box. So the Welsh government
:49:22. > :49:26.will hope for a share of any extra spending that
:49:27. > :49:29.Philip Hammond can find to alleviate problems with business rates
:49:30. > :49:32.and social care in England. Philip Hammond is
:49:33. > :49:36.fond of referring to Britain's eye-wateringly large debt
:49:37. > :49:40.but there may still be areas where a little Treasury cash
:49:41. > :49:42.could go a long way. Carolyn Harris' eight year old son
:49:43. > :49:45.Martin died after being knocked She had to borrow money to pay
:49:46. > :49:51.for his funeral and now wants the government to help
:49:52. > :49:54.families in this situation. My message to the Chancellor is,
:49:55. > :49:56.I speak as a mother I tried to give him a little insight
:49:57. > :50:07.into just how painful that time is and how you don't
:50:08. > :50:09.consider cost on anything, you just consider how you're
:50:10. > :50:12.going to get through every day. So to remove the cost would be doing
:50:13. > :50:15.such a marvellous thing for any family, not to even
:50:16. > :50:17.have to consider that because the pain, dealing
:50:18. > :50:20.with the pain is so unbearable that
:50:21. > :50:22.unless you have been through it, This is just one way
:50:23. > :50:25.of making life slightly Gordon Brown used to joke that there
:50:26. > :50:31.are two types of Chancellor, those who fail and those who get
:50:32. > :50:34.out in time. Don Touhig was his right-hand man
:50:35. > :50:38.all the way back in 1997. He said some staff
:50:39. > :50:40.got rather annoyed with last-minute budget
:50:41. > :50:44.script alterations. Sue and I, who was Gordon's
:50:45. > :50:48.gatekeeper, and the other senior staff were keen to get
:50:49. > :50:51.Gordon away from the keyboard because he kept adding
:50:52. > :50:53.this or changing And so, I had a call from Sue,
:50:54. > :50:59.could I come over to the Treasury. And she gave me a brown paper
:51:00. > :51:06.envelope and the budget was in there because they weren't going to let
:51:07. > :51:09.Gordon change any more and alter any more and then
:51:10. > :51:11.on the budget morning, of course, Gordon stood
:51:12. > :51:12.on the steps "In there is the first Labour budget
:51:13. > :51:24.for 18 years," the media was saying. It was never in there, it was locked
:51:25. > :51:27.in a drawer in my room. The red box was empty,
:51:28. > :51:31.it was locked in my drawer Gordon Brown, like George Osborne
:51:32. > :51:34.after him, was a highly political Chancellor,
:51:35. > :51:37.with an eye on any announcement that I went in as Gordon Brown's PPS
:51:38. > :51:40.a couple of days after we came into government,
:51:41. > :51:42.the day he announced the independence of
:51:43. > :51:44.the Bank of England and... We had a drink that
:51:45. > :51:49.evening, a few of us and he had some of his officials there
:51:50. > :51:52.and his announcement about the Bank of England that day,
:51:53. > :51:54.what was staggering the officials is that he just didn't announce it,
:51:55. > :51:56.said tell me how it works, he told them how
:51:57. > :52:00.it was going so it was all worked out, the economics was worked
:52:01. > :52:03.out and the politics was worked out. It's fair to say that Philip Hammond
:52:04. > :52:06.known at Westminster as spreadsheet Phil isn't famous for magic
:52:07. > :52:08.tricks or excitement. Philip Hammond takes a much more
:52:09. > :52:11.accountant like approach. He's interested in cold, hard facts,
:52:12. > :52:14.cold, hard numbers and this is where the challenge is for Welsh
:52:15. > :52:19.politicians in terms of securing more investment into Wales, is to
:52:20. > :52:22.make winning economic arguments. With George Osborne,
:52:23. > :52:25.it was much more about the politics, particularly in the run-up
:52:26. > :52:28.to the 2015 general election. We are now in a phase
:52:29. > :52:32.where actual cold, hard arguments will sway the Treasury,
:52:33. > :52:34.probably little else. So that's how you manage
:52:35. > :52:36.to win Treasury friends We will find out
:52:37. > :52:42.on Wednesday who has managed to catch Philip Hammond's
:52:43. > :52:46.ear but there is no doubt that his first budget will be
:52:47. > :52:48.pored over by politicians and accountants alike,
:52:49. > :52:53.as Wales and the rest of the UK prepares for an uncertain post
:52:54. > :52:58.Brexit world. David Cornock there,
:52:59. > :53:01.and speaking of a post-Brexit world, How are they seen in Brussels
:53:02. > :53:08.with Brexit ongoing? And how do our current
:53:09. > :53:10.partners in the EU see us? The Labour MEP Derek Vaughan
:53:11. > :53:22.is here with me now. Good morning. Thank you for coming
:53:23. > :53:27.in. What is it like especially for a remain MEP? I guess that those
:53:28. > :53:32.wanted to leave, those who wanted to remain in the European Union, what
:53:33. > :53:36.is it like now in Brussels? I think all of us are trying to carry on as
:53:37. > :53:44.normal in the European Parliament. For example, I still have the best
:53:45. > :53:47.attendance record of any UK MEP. I have just been re-elected as the
:53:48. > :53:53.first vice-chair of the budget committee. On a personal level,
:53:54. > :53:56.things are OK. Things are starting to change already, I was in line to
:53:57. > :54:04.write the rules for the structural funds post-2020, it was a huge job,
:54:05. > :54:07.I cannot do that any more. It would have been one of the biggest jobs in
:54:08. > :54:10.the parliament. Important for Wales but important for the rest of the
:54:11. > :54:15.European Union. I cannot do that any more. The European union is
:54:16. > :54:19.rewriting the financial regulations again on regional funding to make it
:54:20. > :54:24.easier and simpler for applicants to apply, I was asked to do that job,
:54:25. > :54:28.the other groups objected. Basically saying how can somebody from the UK
:54:29. > :54:32.do this job when they are not going to be in the EU any longer? Is that
:54:33. > :54:37.the sense you are getting, the other 27 countries are saying, let's not
:54:38. > :54:41.deal, let's not give too much to the UK lot because they will not be
:54:42. > :54:45.here? I think it's a lot of frustration there at the moment. The
:54:46. > :54:51.restoration is fed by the view that the UK is heading for a hard Brexit.
:54:52. > :54:54.Essentially the UK is linked to the European Union, we do not want to be
:54:55. > :54:59.in the EU, we don't want to be a mystical market, the customs market,
:55:00. > :55:06.we want a free trade agreement. -- single market. It is a back door way
:55:07. > :55:11.of getting into the single market, I can say at this stage, any
:55:12. > :55:14.discussions we have with the EU on a trade agreement, the discussions
:55:15. > :55:18.will be long and complicated and difficult and at the end of the day,
:55:19. > :55:22.whatever deal we get is going to be much worse, much inferior than we
:55:23. > :55:26.have got now. We will go on to the deal at the moment. Your MEP
:55:27. > :55:31.counterparts from the rest of the EU, how do they feel about the fact
:55:32. > :55:36.that the UK voted to leave? Is it a sense of anger, remorse? I think
:55:37. > :55:39.they are sorry. They are sorry that the UK are leaving the European
:55:40. > :55:45.Union. We were seen as an important member and partner. Frustrated
:55:46. > :55:48.because they have heard the speeches from the Prime Minister and others
:55:49. > :55:55.and they accept that we are heading for a hard Brexit. It will cause
:55:56. > :56:01.even more difficulties for the UK. We have seen this week from the car
:56:02. > :56:05.industry, huge economic damage if we are not in the single market. We
:56:06. > :56:09.have seen this week the possibility of the UK breaking up if we are not
:56:10. > :56:13.in the single market. It is causing huge problems in the EU but it will
:56:14. > :56:19.cause even bigger problems in the UK. That issue of EU leaders on the
:56:20. > :56:23.Brexit deal, how certain are you that they mean that 100%? Or are
:56:24. > :56:27.they grandstanding because they know there is a negotiation to come and
:56:28. > :56:31.they know as well as we know that in the end, it will be somewhere in the
:56:32. > :56:36.middle? I am certain they mean what they say. One of the things that has
:56:37. > :56:40.struck me is how united the EU has been. All the EU institutions,
:56:41. > :56:44.including the Parliament, or the member states are saying exactly the
:56:45. > :56:48.same thing and they are saying no negotiations before Article 50 is
:56:49. > :56:51.triggered. They are saying no cherry picking the UK and they are saying
:56:52. > :56:58.any deal we get must be inferior to the deal we get now. When the EU
:56:59. > :57:04.dustup in negotiations, the EU will be looking at the political not
:57:05. > :57:07.their priority in the future will be keeping the EU together. That is
:57:08. > :57:11.going to make them worse off if they have a tough deal with the UK. As
:57:12. > :57:15.well as being European politicians, they are domestic politicians. There
:57:16. > :57:19.are elections in France, Germany, Holland this year. The politicians
:57:20. > :57:21.that are not going to go to the electorate saying we could have a
:57:22. > :57:25.tough deal with Britain, it will make is worse off but it will make
:57:26. > :57:30.them worse off as well. That will not wash with their electorate. In
:57:31. > :57:34.France and Germany, the thing that already, the person who is probably
:57:35. > :57:38.going to win the French elections has been quite open on that. He is
:57:39. > :57:42.saying that his priority is to keep the European Union together and we
:57:43. > :57:46.have to drive a hard bargain with the UK. German politicians think the
:57:47. > :57:50.same thing. Including front runner, a friend and colleague of mine. He
:57:51. > :57:53.is saying that we have to keep the European Union together and that is
:57:54. > :57:58.the most important thing. The German industry think the same thing. They
:57:59. > :58:00.think that the economics isn't as important as the integrity of the
:58:01. > :58:07.European Union. We have to give the 27 members states working. Did you
:58:08. > :58:13.get a sense of how they react when they hear Theresa May saying unless
:58:14. > :58:18.there is a deal at the end of this, the UK could just turn into this low
:58:19. > :58:21.tax, low regulation economy just to be more competitive and attract
:58:22. > :58:27.companies from the EU? Do they take that seriously? They listen. They
:58:28. > :58:33.will focus on politics and not economics. Philip Hammond said this
:58:34. > :58:38.morning and this money, you should worry us. He was to turn the UK into
:58:39. > :58:41.a low tax economy with local regulation including low
:58:42. > :58:44.environmental protection and low workers' rights. Is that the kind of
:58:45. > :58:50.economy and future we want in the UK? I hope not. Do they take it
:58:51. > :58:53.seriously? I know you say they are concentrating on their side of
:58:54. > :58:58.things, they need to believe that Hammond and Theresa May will do
:58:59. > :59:03.that. Do they believe it? I think they hear it and already some of the
:59:04. > :59:08.leaders, have said in the negotiations that the EU will try to
:59:09. > :59:12.ensure that the UK is not able to do that, that the UK is not able to
:59:13. > :59:16.undercut the rest of the European Union in terms of taxation. That
:59:17. > :59:19.will be part of the negotiations. They hear it and they will
:59:20. > :59:24.understand it but they will try to avoid it. Talking about fractures in
:59:25. > :59:30.relationship, you are a Labour politician but removed from the
:59:31. > :59:33.domestic issue and from Assembly Members and domestic politics, but
:59:34. > :59:37.you must see what has been happening in by-elections in Copeland and so
:59:38. > :59:41.on. How do you assess the situation facing the party at the moment? In
:59:42. > :59:46.Wales, we have done pretty well in the past. I am pretty confident with
:59:47. > :59:52.the council elections this year, our councils have been performing pretty
:59:53. > :59:55.well. The party nationally is not brilliant. You have to see the
:59:56. > :00:00.opinion polls for it, sorry to go back to the issue of Brexit but I
:00:01. > :00:04.think the party will be doing much better if we are provided stronger
:00:05. > :00:07.opposition on hard Brexit. For example, in the House of Commons a
:00:08. > :00:11.couple of weeks ago, I think it was legitimate for the Labour Party to
:00:12. > :00:14.say to the UK Government, we want you to commit to negotiation full
:00:15. > :00:19.access to the single market and we want a proper boat at the end of the
:00:20. > :00:26.day on the final deal. And without that, we should not be voting to
:00:27. > :00:30.trigger Article 50. Is Jeremy Corbyn, is he wrong on that one? I
:00:31. > :00:36.was looking at an opinion poll a couple of weeks ago and that opinion
:00:37. > :00:40.poll found that every vote the Labour Party has lost a Ukip since
:00:41. > :00:45.the last election, we are now losing four to five voters to the Lib Dems.
:00:46. > :00:49.I think there was a strong case for a party who is arguing against hard
:00:50. > :00:51.Brexit and has put in jobs and Brisbane two of this country ahead
:00:52. > :00:58.of everything else. If you are seeing that poll and away is that
:00:59. > :01:01.information, why is not Jeremy Corbyn changing things? He says we
:01:02. > :01:06.have to be tough as the Tories on Brexit. What you are saying and a
:01:07. > :01:12.lot of Labour MPs think seems quite different. I could understand lots
:01:13. > :01:18.of my MP colleagues, we are in a difficult position, in many of the
:01:19. > :01:22.constituencies they voted to leave the European Union and they may feel
:01:23. > :01:26.they have to reflect the position of their voters. My concern is when
:01:27. > :01:30.this all go pear shaped and it will go pay shape, my party, the Labour
:01:31. > :01:36.Party will be located in the Tory Brexit and I do not want to see that
:01:37. > :01:41.happen. -- pear shaped. We write that there will be any UK MEPs in
:01:42. > :01:44.the 20 19th election? The obvious time for leaving the EU... Sorry,
:01:45. > :01:46.that is it from me this week. Look out for our Budget coverage,
:01:47. > :01:48.particularly on Wednesday, and don't forget we're always
:01:49. > :01:53.on Twitter, walespolitics. need Crossrail as well. We will be
:01:54. > :01:55.poring over the entrails of the budget next week. Thank you very
:01:56. > :02:00.much indeed. So the Brexit Bill is back in
:02:01. > :02:06.the Lords next week and the Lib Dems They've ordered pizza and camp beds
:02:07. > :02:09.to encourage their peers to keep talking all night,
:02:10. > :02:12.only to be told by the Lord's authorities that their plans fall
:02:13. > :02:24.foul of health and safety laws. Laws that they probably voted for.
:02:25. > :02:28.What did you make of David Liddington's remarks on the Lords
:02:29. > :02:33.amendments, particularly not just the one on EU nationals, but on what
:02:34. > :02:40.is regarded as a meaningful vote at the end of the process? Let's be
:02:41. > :02:42.clear, as ministers like to say, the meaningful vote vote is by far the
:02:43. > :02:50.biggest thing that will happen in Parliament. It puts EU citizens into
:02:51. > :02:56.a tiny corner. It will decide not just who is going to have the final
:02:57. > :03:00.say on this, but who the EU is negotiating with. Is it directly
:03:01. > :03:03.with Theresa May or is it with Parliament? Who will decide the
:03:04. > :03:11.shape of Brexit, Parliament or Theresa May? The Lords amendment is
:03:12. > :03:15.just the first chapter. They have voiced Theresa May to give them a
:03:16. > :03:20.veto on everything she does, and there is a possible chance in the
:03:21. > :03:28.Commons could uphold this amendment. The meaningful vote amendment? The
:03:29. > :03:32.meaningful vote amendment. But is it a meaningful vote if the choice is
:03:33. > :03:38.to either back the deal or crash out of the deal? That is what the remain
:03:39. > :03:43.supporting MPs or hardline people who want to remain fear. What they
:03:44. > :03:50.want is the power to be able to send Theresa May back to the negotiating
:03:51. > :03:53.table. Why is that anathema to many Brexit supporters? They believed it
:03:54. > :03:59.would crucially and critically undermine Theresa May's negotiating
:04:00. > :04:02.hand and also create a long period of uncertainty for business. There
:04:03. > :04:08.is already great uncertainty and this could extend it. The
:04:09. > :04:13.government's position is in there was a proper, meaningful vote which
:04:14. > :04:18.Parliament could reject what was on offer, that would be an incentive to
:04:19. > :04:24.the EU to give us a bad deal? I think that is the fear. If you are
:04:25. > :04:26.saying to the people you are negotiating with that that is
:04:27. > :04:32.another authority and Theresa May will have to go back and have all of
:04:33. > :04:35.this approved, I think it would have a very significant undermining
:04:36. > :04:42.effect on her negotiating hand. Things change from day to day. We
:04:43. > :04:47.are talking about 2019 and 2018 at the earliest, but if the government
:04:48. > :04:56.lost a vote on the Brexit deal, would he not have to call in someone
:04:57. > :05:01.else? That is why the vote will be meaningful even if the amendment on
:05:02. > :05:07.this meaningful vote will be lost. You cannot do a deal on something as
:05:08. > :05:13.historic as Brexit and have Parliament against you. So, whatever
:05:14. > :05:19.form this vote takes, whenever it happens, it will be hugely
:05:20. > :05:24.meaningful. Whatever label that is given and if she lost it she would
:05:25. > :05:31.call a general election. She could not impose it. To call a general
:05:32. > :05:35.election now you need a majority of MPs which she will not have, so
:05:36. > :05:38.maybe she will not get her election after all. It would be very unlike
:05:39. > :05:42.Labour not to vote for an election. It would be very unlike Labour not
:05:43. > :05:45.to vote for an election. The elections to Stormont have given
:05:46. > :05:48.a boost to the republicans and put the long term status
:05:49. > :05:51.of Northern Ireland in some doubt. Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams
:05:52. > :05:53.spoke to reporters Yesterday was in many,
:05:54. > :05:58.many ways a watershed election, and we have just started a process
:05:59. > :06:02.of reflecting what it all means, but clearly the union's majority
:06:03. > :06:18.in the Assembly has been ended, and the notion of a permanent
:06:19. > :06:30.or a perpetual unionist majority Is he right? Is this a watershed?
:06:31. > :06:36.The nationalist vote in the assembly will now come to 39 and the
:06:37. > :06:41.Unionists 38. It is only one member, but it is significant. This is a
:06:42. > :06:45.very serious moment and because of everything else going on with Donald
:06:46. > :06:49.Trump and Brexit it is taking a while for people here to realise
:06:50. > :06:54.just how significant this is. Talking to someone who only recently
:06:55. > :06:58.left a significant role in Northern Ireland politics last night, they
:06:59. > :07:02.said they were very worried about what this means. It is likely there
:07:03. > :07:07.will be a call for some kind of international figure to chair the
:07:08. > :07:11.talks to try and see if there is a way of everybody working together.
:07:12. > :07:15.All sides will probably try to extract more money from the
:07:16. > :07:20.Treasury, but it is a very dangerous moment. Should we regard Michelle
:07:21. > :07:25.O'Neill, who has replaced Mr McGuinness as the leader, it is she
:07:26. > :07:33.the First Minister death probably not quite. An interesting thought.
:07:34. > :07:39.Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, a fascinating concept in itself. But
:07:40. > :07:44.there are are still a large amount of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein
:07:45. > :07:48.what they need. But what effect does this have on the legacy of the
:07:49. > :07:53.prosecutions and the great witchhunts which the British
:07:54. > :07:59.Government has vowed to end. There is a majority left on the Stormont
:08:00. > :08:03.assembly to end those. But some would keep them going for time
:08:04. > :08:12.continuing, which is a headache for Theresa May. You have now got 27
:08:13. > :08:16.Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the SDLP bumps up the numbers a little
:08:17. > :08:21.bit. You have got the British Government transfixed with Brexit
:08:22. > :08:25.which has huge implications for the border between North and South in
:08:26. > :08:31.Ireland, and the Irish government is pretty wavering as well and if there
:08:32. > :08:34.is an election there, Sinn Fein could do well in the Dublin
:08:35. > :08:40.parliament as well. There are a lot of moving pieces. There are and
:08:41. > :08:44.there is a danger that we look at everything through the prism of
:08:45. > :08:49.Brexit, but I found Friday and this weekend fascinating. Theresa May and
:08:50. > :08:53.Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is framing Brexit entirely through an
:08:54. > :08:59.argument to have a second referendum on independence which she wants to
:09:00. > :09:06.hold it she possibly can. And the Irish situation with the prospect of
:09:07. > :09:13.a hard border with Northern Ireland voting majority to remain, quite a
:09:14. > :09:19.substantial majority, again a few of the instability at the moment. That
:09:20. > :09:24.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:25. > :09:25.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:26. > :09:28.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:29. > :09:30.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:31. > :09:33."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:34. > :09:37.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:38. > :09:50.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:51. > :09:53.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:54. > :09:59."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:10:00. > :10:13.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:14. > :10:14.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:15. > :10:27.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:28. > :10:31.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:32. > :10:34.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:35. > :10:42.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:43. > :10:48.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:49. > :10:54.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:55. > :10:58.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:59. > :11:11.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:12. > :11:15.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:16. > :11:19.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:20. > :11:27.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:28. > :11:32.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:33. > :11:36.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:37. > :11:42.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:43. > :11:47.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:48. > :11:51.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:52. > :11:57.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:58. > :12:03.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:04. > :12:07.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:08. > :12:12.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:13. > :12:17.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:18. > :12:21.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:22. > :12:26.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:27. > :12:29.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:30. > :12:33.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:34. > :12:36.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:37. > :12:42.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:43. > :12:45.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:46. > :12:53.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:54. > :12:58.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:59. > :13:02.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:03. > :13:06.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:07. > :13:11.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:12. > :13:15.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:16. > :13:25.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:26. > :13:29.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:30. > :13:35.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:36. > :13:41.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:42. > :13:44.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:45. > :13:46.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:47. > :14:35.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:36. > :14:37.The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.