:00:37. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:44. > :00:48.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:49. > :00:53.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:54. > :00:57.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:58. > :01:03.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:04. > :01:05.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:06. > :01:09.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:10. > :01:13.Why the Education Secretary says universities should lead the way
:01:14. > :01:18.And Alun Cairns on extra powers for Wales after Brexit.
:01:19. > :01:21.changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from
:01:22. > :01:29.there constituencies. And with me, as always,
:01:30. > :01:32.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:33. > :01:34.Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be
:01:35. > :01:39.tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause
:01:40. > :01:42.22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something
:01:43. > :01:44.of a shock. The guidelines propose
:01:45. > :01:50.that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade
:01:51. > :01:53.deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted
:01:54. > :01:58.strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away
:01:59. > :02:00.in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,
:02:01. > :02:07.Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look
:02:08. > :02:12.after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected
:02:13. > :02:17.all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar
:02:18. > :02:19.cannot be changed without the agreement of the people
:02:20. > :02:22.of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not
:02:23. > :02:25.want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,
:02:26. > :02:28.in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying
:02:29. > :02:39.that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is
:02:40. > :02:44.this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.
:02:45. > :02:48.Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again
:02:49. > :02:53.and again is that at different points individual countries can
:02:54. > :03:01.start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you
:03:02. > :03:05.have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to
:03:06. > :03:11.be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit
:03:12. > :03:20.after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is
:03:21. > :03:24.triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto
:03:25. > :03:28.it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald
:03:29. > :03:34.Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to
:03:35. > :03:37.say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual
:03:38. > :03:44.countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking
:03:45. > :03:51.to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I
:03:52. > :03:58.think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number
:03:59. > :04:02.10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter
:04:03. > :04:06.of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal
:04:07. > :04:12.the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things
:04:13. > :04:17.looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed
:04:18. > :04:20.over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this
:04:21. > :04:26.incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there
:04:27. > :04:31.could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,
:04:32. > :04:35.it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going
:04:36. > :04:40.entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar
:04:41. > :04:45.got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the
:04:46. > :04:51.Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not
:04:52. > :04:53.see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of
:04:54. > :04:59.difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to
:05:00. > :05:04.Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.
:05:05. > :05:09.For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power
:05:10. > :05:14.grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are
:05:15. > :05:18.not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials
:05:19. > :05:25.after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it
:05:26. > :05:32.is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very
:05:33. > :05:35.much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is
:05:36. > :05:40.still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the
:05:41. > :05:46.next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly
:05:47. > :05:53.empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has
:05:54. > :05:56.got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They
:05:57. > :06:01.will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy
:06:02. > :06:07.about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so
:06:08. > :06:10.much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been
:06:11. > :06:21.absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!
:06:22. > :06:27.Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now
:06:28. > :06:30.changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of
:06:31. > :06:36.months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking
:06:37. > :06:44.up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,
:06:45. > :06:47.the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth
:06:48. > :06:51.journey to the exit door? Or can we expect
:06:52. > :06:53.a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back
:06:54. > :06:55.control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually
:06:56. > :06:57.involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting
:06:58. > :06:59.in a car. It is only a few hundred metres
:07:00. > :07:02.from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start
:07:03. > :07:05.of a much longer one and we do not know exactly
:07:06. > :07:10.where we will all end up. This is a historic moment
:07:11. > :07:12.from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,
:07:13. > :07:22.sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's
:07:23. > :07:24.ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset
:07:25. > :07:27.to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,
:07:28. > :07:33.hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it
:07:34. > :07:35.all meant for the So, here it is, a copy
:07:36. > :07:42.of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's
:07:43. > :07:49.proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal
:07:50. > :07:51.at the same time. It also mentioned the word
:07:52. > :07:54."security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement
:07:55. > :07:56.would mean cooperation in the fight against crime
:07:57. > :08:00.and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got
:08:01. > :08:04.to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European
:08:05. > :08:09.policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access
:08:10. > :08:13.information in the same way as we would as a member,
:08:14. > :08:16.so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate
:08:17. > :08:18.a continuing relationship that enables us to work together
:08:19. > :08:21.in the way that we have. That night, the
:08:22. > :08:23.Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad
:08:24. > :08:29.Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,
:08:30. > :08:33.having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is
:08:34. > :08:41.actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers
:08:42. > :08:56.suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool
:08:57. > :08:57.and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area
:08:58. > :08:57.if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,
:08:58. > :08:58.as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we
:08:59. > :09:00.will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement
:09:01. > :09:03.of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other
:09:04. > :09:06.business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,
:09:07. > :09:09.outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British
:09:10. > :09:11.law to change later, It is not without its critics
:09:12. > :09:16.but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,
:09:17. > :09:18.it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek
:09:19. > :09:25.a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,
:09:26. > :09:28.we are doing so from a position where we have the same
:09:29. > :09:30.standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver
:09:31. > :09:36.on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law
:09:37. > :09:38.in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small
:09:39. > :09:45.issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle
:09:46. > :09:48.with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said
:09:49. > :09:51.they were not allowed Great(!)
:09:52. > :09:58.so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been
:09:59. > :10:01.a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,
:10:02. > :10:05.Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting
:10:06. > :10:07.and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines
:10:08. > :10:13.for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,
:10:14. > :10:17.we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss
:10:18. > :10:19.the framework for our Starting parallel talks
:10:20. > :10:22.on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,
:10:23. > :10:31.will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not
:10:32. > :10:36.pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is
:10:37. > :10:42.already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get
:10:43. > :10:45.the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set
:10:46. > :10:48.elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions
:10:49. > :10:58.are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is
:10:59. > :11:04.celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent
:11:05. > :11:13.by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a
:11:14. > :11:16.future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient
:11:17. > :11:23.progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this
:11:24. > :11:29.phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence
:11:30. > :11:34.and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of
:11:35. > :11:38.nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that
:11:39. > :11:44.might be reached on things talked about early on will be very
:11:45. > :11:48.provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the
:11:49. > :11:52.sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.
:11:53. > :11:57.Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk
:11:58. > :12:01.of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not
:12:02. > :12:09.remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.
:12:10. > :12:12.A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said
:12:13. > :12:18.that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see
:12:19. > :12:25.how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are
:12:26. > :12:30.wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see
:12:31. > :12:34.what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,
:12:35. > :12:38.there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years
:12:39. > :12:45.and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept
:12:46. > :12:49.that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels
:12:50. > :12:57.is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to
:12:58. > :13:02.make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a
:13:03. > :13:08.really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,
:13:09. > :13:11.speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.
:13:12. > :13:22.But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I
:13:23. > :13:25.cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the
:13:26. > :13:31.negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.
:13:32. > :13:34.The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years
:13:35. > :13:39.after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must
:13:40. > :13:43.remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of
:13:44. > :13:48.the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It
:13:49. > :13:52.depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are
:13:53. > :13:59.getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any
:14:00. > :14:02.judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you
:14:03. > :14:07.know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And
:14:08. > :14:14.then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is
:14:15. > :14:18.something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this
:14:19. > :14:23.stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,
:14:24. > :14:27.and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer
:14:28. > :14:32.to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in
:14:33. > :14:38.its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like
:14:39. > :14:43.yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they
:14:44. > :14:46.will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do
:14:47. > :14:51.not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try
:14:52. > :14:54.another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a
:14:55. > :14:59.comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints
:15:00. > :15:07.on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept
:15:08. > :15:11.that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We
:15:12. > :15:16.will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own
:15:17. > :15:24.decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the
:15:25. > :15:28.negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in
:15:29. > :15:33.the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.
:15:34. > :15:39.No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free
:15:40. > :15:42.trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very
:15:43. > :15:44.important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of
:15:45. > :15:56.the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without
:15:57. > :16:01.having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I
:16:02. > :16:08.think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of
:16:09. > :16:12.the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no
:16:13. > :16:18.deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will
:16:19. > :16:23.get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,
:16:24. > :16:30.because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But
:16:31. > :16:35.it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the
:16:36. > :16:39.world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would
:16:40. > :16:44.be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with
:16:45. > :16:47.everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to
:16:48. > :16:52.get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the
:16:53. > :16:56.interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned
:16:57. > :17:01.in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair
:17:02. > :17:06.government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any
:17:07. > :17:12.free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British
:17:13. > :17:17.government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it
:17:18. > :17:24.absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this
:17:25. > :17:26.week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is
:17:27. > :17:30.halfway across the world to protect another small group of British
:17:31. > :17:35.people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am
:17:36. > :17:39.absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the
:17:40. > :17:50.same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.
:17:51. > :17:52.This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about
:17:53. > :17:55.sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any
:17:56. > :17:58.free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to
:17:59. > :18:04.Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The
:18:05. > :18:10.British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests
:18:11. > :18:14.of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000
:18:15. > :18:19.people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important
:18:20. > :18:24.Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will
:18:25. > :18:28.be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including
:18:29. > :18:30.free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this
:18:31. > :18:33.morning. Although sometimes it seems
:18:34. > :18:35.like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening
:18:36. > :18:36.other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,
:18:37. > :18:39.there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot
:18:40. > :18:43.up for grabs. Local elections take place
:18:44. > :18:45.on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections
:18:46. > :18:50.in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,
:18:51. > :18:57.usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually
:18:58. > :19:03.fares better are not Six regions of England will also
:19:04. > :19:07.hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,
:19:08. > :19:10.and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,
:19:11. > :19:17.with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands
:19:18. > :19:19.among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32
:19:20. > :19:22.councils are being contested, many of them affected
:19:23. > :19:25.by boundary changes. Since these seats were last
:19:26. > :19:27.contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each
:19:28. > :19:33.of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected
:19:34. > :19:39.in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,
:19:40. > :19:40.though independent candidates currently hold
:19:41. > :19:43.a quarter of council seats. According to the latest
:19:44. > :19:45.calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,
:19:46. > :19:50.the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,
:19:51. > :19:53.despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England
:19:54. > :20:00.looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning
:20:01. > :20:02.100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,
:20:03. > :20:07.predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system
:20:08. > :20:09.usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,
:20:10. > :20:12.the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats
:20:13. > :20:15.they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high
:20:16. > :20:24.water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections
:20:25. > :20:26.suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest
:20:27. > :20:29.gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's
:20:30. > :20:31.very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice
:20:32. > :20:39.of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start
:20:40. > :20:43.with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?
:20:44. > :20:47.Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part
:20:48. > :20:52.rural England. The only control three of the council they are
:20:53. > :20:57.defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly
:20:58. > :21:00.a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion
:21:01. > :21:04.polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the
:21:05. > :21:16.position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring
:21:17. > :21:19.of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking
:21:20. > :21:21.about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50
:21:22. > :21:24.losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council
:21:25. > :21:28.areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,
:21:29. > :21:32.could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council
:21:33. > :21:36.control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,
:21:37. > :21:41.what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the
:21:42. > :21:45.big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of
:21:46. > :21:48.the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local
:21:49. > :21:56.by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and
:21:57. > :21:58.in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a
:21:59. > :22:02.Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of
:22:03. > :22:06.ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is
:22:07. > :22:10.uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they
:22:11. > :22:13.do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do
:22:14. > :22:17.terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing
:22:18. > :22:22.relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely
:22:23. > :22:53.to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in
:22:54. > :22:57.the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour
:22:58. > :22:58.Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We
:22:59. > :23:01.are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the
:23:02. > :23:04.mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general
:23:05. > :23:07.election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in
:23:08. > :23:09.the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general
:23:10. > :23:12.election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the
:23:13. > :23:14.West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a
:23:15. > :23:17.headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to
:23:18. > :23:19.lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for
:23:20. > :23:22.their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his
:23:23. > :23:28.party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty
:23:29. > :23:32.dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.
:23:33. > :23:37.Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always
:23:38. > :23:44.remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.
:23:45. > :23:49.Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.
:23:50. > :23:55.The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP
:23:56. > :23:58.will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is
:23:59. > :24:04.happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion
:24:05. > :24:08.polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did
:24:09. > :24:12.relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather
:24:13. > :24:16.disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign
:24:17. > :24:25.of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP
:24:26. > :24:27.ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by
:24:28. > :24:31.double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently
:24:32. > :24:35.control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the
:24:36. > :24:39.question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative
:24:40. > :24:44.revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government
:24:45. > :24:48.by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of
:24:49. > :24:54.the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in
:24:55. > :24:57.the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose
:24:58. > :25:04.control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22
:25:05. > :25:07.local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose
:25:08. > :25:13.ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,
:25:14. > :25:18.labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff
:25:19. > :25:23.could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.
:25:24. > :25:26.Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour
:25:27. > :25:41.control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid
:25:42. > :25:44.Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in
:25:45. > :25:46.the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be
:25:47. > :25:48.judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion
:25:49. > :25:51.polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it
:25:52. > :25:58.affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect
:25:59. > :26:01.his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by
:26:02. > :26:07.this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and
:26:08. > :26:13.others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence
:26:14. > :26:17.and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some
:26:18. > :26:21.kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the
:26:22. > :26:28.argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12
:26:29. > :26:35.months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,
:26:36. > :26:40.up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some
:26:41. > :26:45.impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will
:26:46. > :26:51.mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it
:26:52. > :26:56.will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That
:26:57. > :27:01.is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive
:27:02. > :27:06.reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the
:27:07. > :27:08.fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she
:27:09. > :27:13.believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West
:27:14. > :27:16.who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were
:27:17. > :27:20.worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.
:27:21. > :27:25.The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got
:27:26. > :27:30.other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the
:27:31. > :27:33.success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says
:27:34. > :27:40.this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face
:27:41. > :27:46.before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a
:27:47. > :27:51.good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results
:27:52. > :28:11.will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem
:28:12. > :28:15.threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory
:28:16. > :28:17.party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried
:28:18. > :28:19.about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems
:28:20. > :28:21.because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve
:28:22. > :28:23.about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding
:28:24. > :28:26.repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think
:28:27. > :28:28.he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership
:28:29. > :28:33.contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to
:28:34. > :28:39.be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they
:28:40. > :28:45.were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,
:28:46. > :28:48.it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of
:28:49. > :28:50.self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.
:28:51. > :28:53.Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it
:28:54. > :28:56.Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew
:28:57. > :28:58.Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces
:28:59. > :29:03.It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the
:29:04. > :29:05.Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.
:29:06. > :29:10.If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.
:29:11. > :29:12.Labour is trying to do something much harder,
:29:13. > :29:14.which is to try and speak for the whole country,
:29:15. > :29:16.and by the way, that is another part of
:29:17. > :29:20.Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's
:29:21. > :29:26.Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,
:29:27. > :29:28.let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.
:29:29. > :29:34.By the way, there is more that unites Remainers
:29:35. > :29:36.and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common
:29:37. > :29:41.concerns about the way the country is run.
:29:42. > :29:47.Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.
:29:48. > :29:51.Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on
:29:52. > :29:57.Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed
:29:58. > :30:03.Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms
:30:04. > :30:07.with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I
:30:08. > :30:11.campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I
:30:12. > :30:16.represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.
:30:17. > :30:20.Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky
:30:21. > :30:25.nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this
:30:26. > :30:34.democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant
:30:35. > :30:41.legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before
:30:42. > :30:48.Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I
:30:49. > :30:56.will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election
:30:57. > :31:00.date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across
:31:01. > :31:05.the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what
:31:06. > :31:10.Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We
:31:11. > :31:17.have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,
:31:18. > :31:24.your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we
:31:25. > :31:27.have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those
:31:28. > :31:31.types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies
:31:32. > :31:37.that decide general elections. The important places in the elections
:31:38. > :31:44.are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are
:31:45. > :31:48.marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well
:31:49. > :31:52.in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to
:31:53. > :32:00.campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who
:32:01. > :32:06.voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime
:32:07. > :32:10.Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen
:32:11. > :32:18.that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is
:32:19. > :32:23.important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the
:32:24. > :32:29.trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people
:32:30. > :32:33.who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for
:32:34. > :32:38.other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate
:32:39. > :32:42.that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am
:32:43. > :32:47.not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see
:32:48. > :32:52.online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to
:32:53. > :32:56.switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was
:32:57. > :33:02.not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our
:33:03. > :33:08.neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from
:33:09. > :33:15.voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among
:33:16. > :33:19.nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the
:33:20. > :33:26.mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,
:33:27. > :33:36.in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is
:33:37. > :33:41.less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond
:33:42. > :33:45.extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of
:33:46. > :33:51.elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate
:33:52. > :33:57.city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that
:33:58. > :34:10.of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an
:34:11. > :34:12.anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:13. > :34:17.from memory. We have not got elections in London but our
:34:18. > :34:27.elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...
:34:28. > :34:32.What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the
:34:33. > :34:38.opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it
:34:39. > :34:42.is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do
:34:43. > :34:48.well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,
:34:49. > :34:54.Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the
:34:55. > :35:00.general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?
:35:01. > :35:05.What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative
:35:06. > :35:09.garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me
:35:10. > :35:14.about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to
:35:15. > :35:17.you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people
:35:18. > :35:23.the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks
:35:24. > :35:29.so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements
:35:30. > :35:31.and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey
:35:32. > :35:37.was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education
:35:38. > :35:41.spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.
:35:42. > :35:45.Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the
:35:46. > :35:49.Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are
:35:50. > :35:54.working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does
:35:55. > :36:01.it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three
:36:02. > :36:05.times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a
:36:06. > :36:09.huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter
:36:10. > :36:17.and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in
:36:18. > :36:24.the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls
:36:25. > :36:28.are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of
:36:29. > :36:31.government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that
:36:32. > :36:35.the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years
:36:36. > :36:41.because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes
:36:42. > :36:46.this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault
:36:47. > :36:51.on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for
:36:52. > :36:55.government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading
:36:56. > :36:59.for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me
:37:00. > :37:02.have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an
:37:03. > :37:06.individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British
:37:07. > :37:09.people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are
:37:10. > :37:18.letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election
:37:19. > :37:23.question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an
:37:24. > :37:27.early election? The general election coordinator called for a general
:37:28. > :37:30.election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in
:37:31. > :37:36.staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the
:37:37. > :37:41.Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter
:37:42. > :37:44.having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the
:37:45. > :37:52.election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.
:37:53. > :38:02.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics Wales.
:38:03. > :38:08.Alun Cairns tells us what he wants from Brexit and which extra powers
:38:09. > :38:15.But first, the Education Secretary Kirsty Williams has told this
:38:16. > :38:19.programme she wants universities to pay the real living wage
:38:20. > :38:24.Mrs Williams says they should do so as part of what she calls
:38:25. > :38:26.their "civic mission", and called for "much greater
:38:27. > :38:29.constraint" in setting the pay of their highest earners.
:38:30. > :38:34.All vice-chancellors in Wales are paid more than ?200,000 a year.
:38:35. > :38:40.2015 and George Osborne, the then Chancellor,
:38:41. > :38:44.boosted the Minimum Wage and rebranded it as the National
:38:45. > :38:50.But there is another living wage, the Living Wage
:38:51. > :38:55.Foundation thinks people should earn at least ?8.45 an hour
:38:56. > :39:01.The UK Government's national living wage rose to ?7.50
:39:02. > :39:06.this month for people aged 25 and over.
:39:07. > :39:09.Annemarie is a cleaner at Cardiff University where staff are
:39:10. > :39:15.I had two jobs before to make ends meet.
:39:16. > :39:20.It meant a lot of rushing around, working until three o'clock, go home
:39:21. > :39:23.to pick my daughter up and then rush back to work,
:39:24. > :39:28.I didn't have much time then for anything else.
:39:29. > :39:38.I had more time at home for doing stuff with my
:39:39. > :39:44.Cardiff University became a living wage employer in 2014,
:39:45. > :39:49.a decision that costed ?600,000 a year.
:39:50. > :39:52.It was our students that discovered it.
:39:53. > :39:55.They were doing a project in the School of Social
:39:56. > :39:58.Sciences and they came in early, students coming in early!
:39:59. > :40:03.They talked to the cleaners and they discovered
:40:04. > :40:06.what we were paying them through the contractors.
:40:07. > :40:17.I felt that we had to do something about it.
:40:18. > :40:19.Welsh Government headquarters at Cathays Park is just over
:40:20. > :40:25.the road from Cardiff University, the only Welsh university that is
:40:26. > :40:30.Kirsty Williams says she wants the others to do the same
:40:31. > :40:35.and she is calling on them to make rapid progress.
:40:36. > :40:37.I have laid down a challenge to higher education Wales.
:40:38. > :40:42.But that has to extend beyond to just their students,
:40:43. > :40:47.We need those universities to recognise the power
:40:48. > :40:50.they have within our nation of Wales to do good.
:40:51. > :40:53.Yes, to educate people, but to use their powers
:40:54. > :40:55.and their resources, their facilities
:40:56. > :40:58.to contribute to the nation as a whole and paying
:40:59. > :41:01.the living wage to all staff is an important part of doing that.
:41:02. > :41:06.Mrs Williams also called for much greater constraint in the salaries
:41:07. > :41:11.In 2015, the vice chancellors of all
:41:12. > :41:14.Welsh universities earned more than ?200,000.
:41:15. > :41:19.But senior salaries were said to be broadly comparable with
:41:20. > :41:26.One way they may be able to find some extra money
:41:27. > :41:29.is to cut the salaries of their highest-paid staff.
:41:30. > :41:35.Every vice chancellor in Wales, for example,
:41:36. > :41:41.I am very pleased the Higher Education Funding
:41:42. > :41:43.Council has recently published its first report
:41:44. > :41:46.intosenior pay in academia so that we can have that
:41:47. > :41:58.transparency around senior pay levels.
:41:59. > :42:00.Having had that transparency are you comfortable with the
:42:01. > :42:04.I'm sure that universities will want to reflect at
:42:05. > :42:05.this time of difficult budgets of austerity
:42:06. > :42:07.across the public services and they will want
:42:08. > :42:09.to reflect that in any decisions they make.
:42:10. > :42:11.This isn't about setting one set of staff against another.
:42:12. > :42:13.Your new funding system for students is based on the
:42:14. > :42:15.other living wage, the National Living Wage,
:42:16. > :42:21.Isn't it a bit hypocritical for you to say, that is OK for
:42:22. > :42:24.students but we want universities to go further.
:42:25. > :42:29.Let's be absolutely clear what Welsh students will be
:42:30. > :42:34.We will be the first country in Europe that
:42:35. > :42:36.will have parity of esteem for students whether they are
:42:37. > :42:39.studying at undergraduate level, whether they are studying part-time
:42:40. > :42:43.or whether they are studying at a postgraduate level.
:42:44. > :42:46.It will be the most progressive package of support
:42:47. > :42:51.for students available, one that has been welcomed by the students
:42:52. > :42:55.Sure, but it's not the National Living Wage, is it?
:42:56. > :43:01.We're talking about a set of workers who are undertaking roles within the
:43:02. > :43:04.As I said, we want Welsh institutions especially those
:43:05. > :43:09.that are spending public money, to work towards accreditation for
:43:10. > :43:12.The umbrella group for higher education,
:43:13. > :43:16.Universities Wales, said many institutions already had pay rates
:43:17. > :43:21.that matched the voluntary living wage even if they weren't accredited
:43:22. > :43:27.Last week, threats to jobs emerged at University of Wales Trinity Saint
:43:28. > :43:31.David and at the University of South Wales, a sign that
:43:32. > :43:38.Kirsty Williams isn't offering more cash for the living wage
:43:39. > :43:41.but the body that distribute funding to universities,
:43:42. > :43:44.the Higher Education Funding Council, says it will work
:43:45. > :43:50.with them to make the progress that she wants.
:43:51. > :43:53.One of the few real surprises in the wake of sending the
:43:54. > :43:56.Article 50 letter this week was Theresa May saying more
:43:57. > :43:59.powers would be coming to Wales after Brexit.
:44:00. > :44:02.The devil will be in the detail of course.
:44:03. > :44:04.In a moment I'll be asking Steffan Lewis
:44:05. > :44:06.and Professor Roger Scully for their take on this,
:44:07. > :44:09.but when I met the Secretary of State for Wales, I asked
:44:10. > :44:13.Alun Cairns what these powers would be.
:44:14. > :44:17.As it stands, devolution or the Welsh Government powers,
:44:18. > :44:22.have been established in the context of the European Union.
:44:23. > :44:25.When those powers return to the UK we will hold them
:44:26. > :44:28.in what we call a holding pattern on a temporary basis and then
:44:29. > :44:32.discuss how best to secure the right outcomes for industry, and for
:44:33. > :44:36.communities and for investment, as well as where can the Welsh
:44:37. > :44:40.Government best play its part in order to grow that investment
:44:41. > :44:46.For example, the European Union put rules on state aid regulations.
:44:47. > :44:48.You can only subsidise in certain areas in
:44:49. > :44:52.We need to come to a similar arrangement across the
:44:53. > :44:55.whole of the UK and, of course, Welsh businesses will want to have a
:44:56. > :44:59.say in that as well as the Welsh Government, as well as other
:45:00. > :45:02.governments to ensure they are not at a disadvantage compared to what
:45:03. > :45:05.What the Welsh Government will say and hse said is
:45:06. > :45:08.when it comes to the repatriation of powers, they should not be held
:45:09. > :45:12.in a holding pattern in Westminster, they said goes straight to Cardiff
:45:13. > :45:19.There are certain things we have got to do and the
:45:20. > :45:21.first is maintain the integrity of the UK market.
:45:22. > :45:24.If those powers from Europe came back to the UK there
:45:25. > :45:29.would be nothing stopping any one nation of the UK heavily subsidising
:45:30. > :45:34.They would have the power of the market because
:45:35. > :45:44.The last thing we want to see is a trade war within the UK.
:45:45. > :45:47.Let's be honest, the UK market is the most important market
:45:48. > :45:48.to Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and England.
:45:49. > :45:50.Maintaining the integrity of that market is
:45:51. > :45:54.Therefore, whilst we are working out how that will work,
:45:55. > :45:57.the return of the powers from Europe back to the UK will be
:45:58. > :46:01.held in the holding pattern while we discuss with the devolved
:46:02. > :46:04.administrations and with business how better to use them.
:46:05. > :46:06.Those discussions, how will that work?
:46:07. > :46:10.What happens if you've got the four governments together, the devolved
:46:11. > :46:15.governments, the UK Government together having discussion but
:46:16. > :46:17.that is deadlock, that is no agreement.
:46:18. > :46:19.Who then arbitrates, who gets to choose?
:46:20. > :46:24.These sorts of things happened between governments
:46:25. > :46:28.As it stands, the European Union or the European Commission are
:46:29. > :46:32.The UK Government has always had a part
:46:33. > :46:39.in those negotiations and we have ensured the devolved administrations
:46:40. > :46:41.have a say in terms of the position the UK Government takes.
:46:42. > :46:44.It isn't about having a say now, it is deciding.
:46:45. > :46:46.You said the four governments will come together, what
:46:47. > :46:48.I'm saying is what if there is a deadlock?
:46:49. > :46:51.I know you are optimistic, that is good to hear, but what if
:46:52. > :46:56.The Welsh Government, Welsh business and I want
:46:57. > :47:00.We want to maintain the integrity of the UK market.
:47:01. > :47:02.The last thing we want is any one government
:47:03. > :47:06.heavily subsidising one industry to the cost of that industry
:47:07. > :47:14.When we negotiate free-trade agreements, for example, with other
:47:15. > :47:18.nations, then we clearly need to be able to command the authority
:47:19. > :47:20.of the whole of the UK, or get to a position
:47:21. > :47:24.where we can bring together all of the views of the whole of the UK
:47:25. > :47:28.in the interest of that trade agreement that would benefit the UK.
:47:29. > :47:30.But then you can look at international trade
:47:31. > :47:33.and think, it's a reserved model and therefore not so problematic
:47:34. > :47:38.but something like agriculture, fisheries, where the Welsh
:47:39. > :47:39.governments will say, those are devolved areas,
:47:40. > :47:43.why shouldn't they go straight to the Welsh Government?
:47:44. > :47:46.Without a common framework, and the Welsh Government
:47:47. > :47:49.except we need a UK framework, so we are in a good
:47:50. > :47:53.Without that framework there would be nothing stopping one
:47:54. > :47:56.nation of the UK heavily subsidising maybe one sector of
:47:57. > :48:01.agriculture and then effectively destroying the market
:48:02. > :48:04.But couldn't you argue that is devolution?
:48:05. > :48:07.The whole point of devolution is the separate
:48:08. > :48:13.Devolution has been established in the context of being a member
:48:14. > :48:17.of the European Union where the European Union has
:48:18. > :48:21.We want to get to a framework in the UK for which
:48:22. > :48:24.all part of the UK agree and until we get to that position
:48:25. > :48:27.we will hold it in what we call a holding pattern before
:48:28. > :48:31.we then extend the powers of the devolved administrations
:48:32. > :48:36.Do you envisage that certain regulations, rules that come
:48:37. > :48:39.from Europe now will have to carry on after that two-year period?
:48:40. > :48:46.They are very worried because safety standards are very important for
:48:47. > :48:50.They don't think it can be done, they think it'll be expensive and
:48:51. > :48:53.time-consuming to have new regulations specifically
:48:54. > :48:58.Do you envisage that will continue beyond that two-year period?
:48:59. > :49:02.The life sceinces sector, the pharmaceutical industry...
:49:03. > :49:13.At the moment, there is a UK framework around medicines and
:49:14. > :49:15.the pharmaceutical industry, a European framework around the
:49:16. > :49:19.When that comes back the last thing any company involved
:49:20. > :49:21.in the pharmaceutical industry wants
:49:22. > :49:25.We need to get a position where we can get to a
:49:26. > :49:33.There are concerns, if you think about Broughton, the aerospace
:49:34. > :49:35.industry will be concerned about, not about the four
:49:36. > :49:39.different elements within the UK, but having
:49:40. > :49:41.a framework which can be carried into Europe.
:49:42. > :49:46.Isn't there a concern that that is so much to do that industry
:49:47. > :49:51.sectors like aerospace won't get the look in,
:49:52. > :49:54.the Rolls Royce standards of regulations that they want?
:49:55. > :49:59.Our starting point is the same as the European Union.
:50:00. > :50:03.The last thing we want to do is to reduce our standards
:50:04. > :50:06.that will effectively cost anyone business.
:50:07. > :50:09.When you are talking about the relationship that
:50:10. > :50:12.needs to be had between the UK and the devolved administrations,
:50:13. > :50:15.how confident are you going forward it will be able to deal
:50:16. > :50:19.We have been hearing recently from the Welsh Government
:50:20. > :50:23.there isn't any listening going on, you hear their concerns but very
:50:24. > :50:26.little happens from the UK Government point view.
:50:27. > :50:31.I have sat in all of the joint ministerial committee
:50:32. > :50:33.meetings that have taken place and I sit in the Cabinet
:50:34. > :50:36.subcommittee and I know that what the Welsh Government
:50:37. > :50:39.have expressed have been taken on board.
:50:40. > :50:43.But also, those stakeholders in Wales, the Welsh farming unions
:50:44. > :50:45.for example, I'm in regular dialogue with them.
:50:46. > :50:48.Manufacturers in Wales, I am in regular communication with them.
:50:49. > :50:51.Their views are important because, after all, they are the ones
:50:52. > :50:54.who are investing the money, they are the ones creating jobs and
:50:55. > :50:56.making communities sustainable.
:50:57. > :50:59.It is about doing the right thing for
:51:00. > :51:04.But isn't your dismissal of their concerns the
:51:05. > :51:07.I am saying to you, mark Drakeford recently saying,
:51:08. > :51:10."there is a job of work for the UK Government to demonstrate
:51:11. > :51:12."that it is listening carefully to our concerns."
:51:13. > :51:14.You are saying, I'm not listening to that.
:51:15. > :51:17.You are are misinterpreting what I've said.
:51:18. > :51:20.We are listening to their concerns and we can demonstrate it
:51:21. > :51:27.It talks specifically about Wales, Scotland
:51:28. > :51:30.and Northern Ireland and the place they have.
:51:31. > :51:34.Our objectives are, Welsh Government highlights
:51:35. > :51:37.unfettered access, we talk about frictionless trade.
:51:38. > :51:42.We want to secure the interests of the EU nationals that
:51:43. > :51:47.and across the UK as we do of UK nationals, Welsh
:51:48. > :51:53.There is so much common ground and I think there is an
:51:54. > :51:55.awful lot being made about some areas of difference
:51:56. > :52:01.but clearly the objectives are, we want the same thing.
:52:02. > :52:04.Steffan Lewis is Plaid Cymru's spokesman on External Affairs,
:52:05. > :52:06.and Professor Roger Scully heads up Cardiff University's
:52:07. > :52:20.Thank you both very much for coming in. There was a lot of talk there
:52:21. > :52:24.about this holding pattern. Powers won't come straight back, they will
:52:25. > :52:29.be held in a holding pattern. What do you make of that? In
:52:30. > :52:33.circumstances the Welsh Secretary is wrong. Things like agriculture are
:52:34. > :52:39.devolved areas right now, powers over those rest with the Assembly in
:52:40. > :52:42.Wales or the Scottish parliament and the Northern Irish Assembly. Those
:52:43. > :52:47.powers are exercised within a context that is shaped by European
:52:48. > :52:51.wide frameworks, regulations, laws and institutions. If we remove
:52:52. > :52:55.ourselves from the EU, the powers over those policies are still held
:52:56. > :53:01.by the devolved legislators and governance. You see merits what he
:53:02. > :53:05.said about it has been in the context of the EU framework, isn't
:53:06. > :53:13.then edit in having a four country UK wide framework as well?
:53:14. > :53:17.That is something there seems to be wide consensus on on things like
:53:18. > :53:24.agriculture. You will need to some degree of UK wide regulation. The
:53:25. > :53:27.issue is how do you decide that? In the Welsh Government white paper,
:53:28. > :53:34.they were talking about having UK wide discussions where the different
:53:35. > :53:38.governments would sit as equals. What Alun Cairns is expressing is
:53:39. > :53:43.much more the dominant might set of Westminster which is a hierarchical
:53:44. > :53:47.one that the UK Government and parliament are the superior level on
:53:48. > :53:51.the devolved institutions are subordinate. It is for the UK
:53:52. > :53:56.Parliament and government to decide what powers will be held at a
:53:57. > :54:02.devolved level. That is an attitude that if the UK Government persists
:54:03. > :54:08.with it, will create problems. I saw one of the reaction of your
:54:09. > :54:15.colleagues in Westminster, this was the biggest power grab since the act
:54:16. > :54:20.of union. This is very serious. This is an act
:54:21. > :54:25.of constitutional aggression on the part of the UK Government. Alun
:54:26. > :54:30.Cairns is misrepresenting the current situation. When European
:54:31. > :54:35.frameworks are agreed, the UK Government agree a common UK
:54:36. > :54:39.position, that is presented at the European Council of ministers on
:54:40. > :54:43.behalf of the UK and there are occasions where Welsh ministers
:54:44. > :54:46.represent the common UK position. The European single market
:54:47. > :54:51.frameworks and is reserved to the UK Government. If and when we leave the
:54:52. > :54:56.European Union it'll be the Judas diction of the National Assembly in
:54:57. > :54:59.terms of the frame if that's related to devolved functions. These are not
:55:00. > :55:03.matters that are in the gift of the UK Government to consult with us
:55:04. > :55:10.upon. Isn't there that merit of having the
:55:11. > :55:14.UK wide single market regulation, do you not see any merit in having
:55:15. > :55:21.that? It should be every legislature for itself? We published a White
:55:22. > :55:26.Paper recently that said it is going to be a UK internal market that
:55:27. > :55:30.needs to be governed. Elements of it will be devolved, elements will be
:55:31. > :55:36.deserved. We need a UK council of ministers to agree European, UK
:55:37. > :55:40.frameworks between us all and they cannot be enforced by the UK
:55:41. > :55:51.Government. Alun Cairns is saying we can continue to have devolution of
:55:52. > :55:55.Ike the cetera. The UK Government is always -- is only sovereign when it
:55:56. > :56:04.comes to England. His Judas diction ends at Offa's Dyke. -- his duties
:56:05. > :56:08.diction. In the Great Repeal Bill it says it
:56:09. > :56:12.is the expectation of the UK Government and the outcome of this
:56:13. > :56:16.process will be an increase in the decision-making power of each
:56:17. > :56:21.devolved administration. How come that is aggression? The rhetoric
:56:22. > :56:27.doesn't match the outcomes. That is what is in writing.
:56:28. > :56:30.David Davies got up in Parliament and said he envisaged greater
:56:31. > :56:36.devolution for Wales once we leave the EU. In 24 hours, the UK
:56:37. > :56:43.Government blocked the devolution of railways to the Welsh Government.
:56:44. > :56:46.Look at paragraph four, they are interpreting the UK single market is
:56:47. > :56:53.being the sole preserve of the UK Government and we should be grateful
:56:54. > :56:56.for that. There is ambiguity there. That is a lot of ambiguity there.
:56:57. > :57:01.They are calling for things to be held back, you say. They are calling
:57:02. > :57:07.about intensive discussions with the devolved administrations. As a
:57:08. > :57:10.reading of this as the constitutional alarm, but that is
:57:11. > :57:14.another reading which is, let's see how it goes from here. Pass the UK
:57:15. > :57:19.Government does not have all its plans in place yet. It is saying,
:57:20. > :57:25.let's see how it goes. The point is, as far as the devolved functions go,
:57:26. > :57:34.they are devolved, they come out of the duties diction of the Assembly
:57:35. > :57:42.for Wales. -- Judas diction. Moving forward, this is an alarm bell. We
:57:43. > :57:46.in Wales after act pre-emptively and I believe we should be publishing an
:57:47. > :57:50.continuation built urgently to protect our constitution from this
:57:51. > :57:54.power grab and to end shrine in Warsaw the standards and we enjoy.
:57:55. > :57:58.When there are these discussions that will go on between each of the
:57:59. > :58:03.devolved legislatures, this is a need to be, Carwyn Jones is called
:58:04. > :58:08.for this, a judge sitting above them all somehow arbitrating, in the case
:58:09. > :58:12.of deadlock, and Alun Cairns would not be drawn on it, who then decides
:58:13. > :58:18.what happens. Quite possibly the editors need to be, that is a strong
:58:19. > :58:24.argument to be made we need a fundamental transformation of
:58:25. > :58:27.intergovernmental negotiations. That would require a fundamental
:58:28. > :58:32.transformation in the mindset of Whitehall Westminster. There is
:58:33. > :58:34.deeply embedded their, particularly...
:58:35. > :58:41.Do you think that is likely to happen? Not at all. It is a
:58:42. > :58:47.hierarchical mindset in Westminster that the UK Parliament is the
:58:48. > :58:50.superior, the top level, the devolved institutions are
:58:51. > :58:57.subordinate. Establishing some sort of relations that would have the
:58:58. > :59:05.different governments interacting as equals, that'll be a transformation.
:59:06. > :59:11.That is no sign at all yet with Theresa May and the rest of high
:59:12. > :59:17.cabinet in Wes -- Westminster will take place. I don't think we're in a
:59:18. > :59:20.place to agree on that. When you are looking at the job of work that is
:59:21. > :59:25.to be done in the Great Repeal Bill and Brexit, the amount of civil
:59:26. > :59:30.service I was needed to get it all done, is the capacity their?
:59:31. > :59:35.There must be grave concerns about this. Brexit is almost certainty the
:59:36. > :59:44.most complicated thing the UK state has done since fighting World War
:59:45. > :59:47.II. It is also the case that their policy-making capacity of the U:K.'s
:59:48. > :59:51.data because of austerity over recent years is probably at its
:59:52. > :59:56.lowest point since the end of World War II. We have these two agendas,
:59:57. > :59:59.which have been pushed by the right-wing of the Conservative Party
:00:00. > :00:03.of austerity and Brexit smashing into each other. We have the UK
:00:04. > :00:08.state having to do something complex with a very new did civil service
:00:09. > :00:13.capacity for doing that. From your point of view, what happens next?
:00:14. > :00:17.Wales has to now take steps to protect and defend the
:00:18. > :00:23.constitutional arrangements we have. We have a Mondays for our
:00:24. > :00:27.constitution. Do you take that into account when they think about the
:00:28. > :00:32.Great Repeal Bill and Brexit? There was this referendum in 2011?
:00:33. > :00:34.They haven't considered the Welsh position, we published a
:00:35. > :00:37.comprehensive White Paper very recently setting out a compromised
:00:38. > :00:40.position and they have rejected it. We're taking a short break over
:00:41. > :00:43.Easter and will be back on April 23rd, but we won't be
:00:44. > :00:46.on air until after 3pm that day for that week only
:00:47. > :00:48.because of the London Marathon. Don't forget you follow
:00:49. > :00:50.all the latest on Twitter, we're @walespolitics but for now
:00:51. > :00:52.that's all from me. So, what will be the effect
:00:53. > :01:08.of new tax and benefit changes Will the Government's grand
:01:09. > :01:12.trade tour reap benefits? And are the Lib Dems really
:01:13. > :01:14.going to replace Labour, To answer that last question,
:01:15. > :01:26.I'm joined by from Salford by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair
:01:27. > :01:38.Carmichael. Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems
:01:39. > :01:44.will replace Labour. How long will it take? We will have to wait and
:01:45. > :01:50.see. Anyone who thinks you can predict the future is engaged in a
:01:51. > :01:53.dodgy game. I have been campaigning with the Liberal Democrats in
:01:54. > :02:01.Manchester... You must not mention... You know the by-election
:02:02. > :02:06.rules. It is only an illustration. Across false ways of the country,
:02:07. > :02:14.the Liberal Democrats are back in business -- across whole swathes of
:02:15. > :02:18.the country. Part of the reason why we are getting a good response is
:02:19. > :02:25.because the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a
:02:26. > :02:29.self-destructive path. Even if you do pretty well in the local
:02:30. > :02:33.elections, it you have to make up lost ground from the time you did
:02:34. > :02:39.very well in previous times, you used to have 4700 councillors. It
:02:40. > :02:44.will take you a long while to get back to that. You will get no
:02:45. > :02:49.argument from me that we have a mountain to climb. What I'm telling
:02:50. > :02:52.you is, and if this is not just in this round of elections, it is in
:02:53. > :02:57.the other by-elections in places like Richmond, and in by-elections
:02:58. > :03:04.write the length and breadth of the country since last June, the Liberal
:03:05. > :03:07.Democrats are taking seats from the Labour Party under Conservative
:03:08. > :03:14.Party, and not just in Brexit phobic areas. Not just in Remain areas. But
:03:15. > :03:19.in places like Sunderland as well which voted very heavily for Brexit.
:03:20. > :03:25.In fact, that vote was in large part as well a protest against the way in
:03:26. > :03:30.which the Labour Party really has taken these areas for granted over
:03:31. > :03:33.the years. That is why the ground is fertile for us. In the local
:03:34. > :03:39.elections which is what we are discussing today, why would anybody
:03:40. > :03:46.vote for the Liberal Democrats if they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren
:03:47. > :03:53.has said he wants to reverse works. If you are Brexit supporter and you
:03:54. > :03:56.are considering how to cast your vote, first of all, I think you will
:03:57. > :03:59.be looking at the quality of representation you can get for your
:04:00. > :04:08.local area and you are right, we have a lot of ground to recoup from
:04:09. > :04:13.previous elections, we lost 124 seats, communities have now had a
:04:14. > :04:18.few years to reflect on the quality of service they have been able to
:04:19. > :04:21.get and they have missed the very effective liberal Democrat
:04:22. > :04:28.councillors they have had. This is not just about whether you are a
:04:29. > :04:33.believer or remainer, ultimately, that is an issue we are going to
:04:34. > :04:37.have to settle and we will settle it not in the way the Government is
:04:38. > :04:41.having by dictating the terms of the debate, but by bringing the whole
:04:42. > :04:46.country together. I think that is something you can only do if, as we
:04:47. > :04:50.have suggested, you give the people the opportunity to have a say on the
:04:51. > :04:54.deal when Theresa May eventually produces it. The only way you could
:04:55. > :04:59.really replace Labour in the foreseeable future would be if a big
:05:00. > :05:03.chunk of the centre and right of the Labour Party came over and join due
:05:04. > :05:11.in some kind of new social democratic alliance. -- joined you.
:05:12. > :05:14.There is no sign that will happen? I do not see whether common purpose is
:05:15. > :05:19.anymore holding the Labour Party together. That is for people in the
:05:20. > :05:25.Labour Party to make their own decisions. Use what happened to the
:05:26. > :05:31.Labour Party in Scotland. -- you saw. Politics moved on and left them
:05:32. > :05:36.behind and they were decimated as a consequence of that. So was your
:05:37. > :05:40.party. It is possible the same thing could happen to the Labour Party and
:05:41. > :05:45.the rest of the UK. Politics is moving on and they are coming up
:05:46. > :05:53.with 1970s solutions to problems in 2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks
:05:54. > :06:00.for joining us. Let us have a look at some of the tax and benefit
:06:01. > :06:04.changes coming up this week. The tax changes first of all. The personal
:06:05. > :06:08.allowance is going to rise to ?11,500, the level at which you
:06:09. > :06:16.start to pay tax. The higher rate threshold, where you start to play
:06:17. > :06:22.at 40%, that will rise from currently ?43,400, rising up to 40
:06:23. > :06:28.5000. -- pay. Benefit changes, freeze on working age benefits,
:06:29. > :06:34.removal of the family element of tax credits and universal credit, that
:06:35. > :06:41.is a technical change but quite an impact. The child element of tax
:06:42. > :06:47.credit is going to be limited to two children on any new claims. The
:06:48. > :06:52.Resolution Foundation has crunched the numbers and they discovered that
:06:53. > :06:58.when you take the tax and benefit changes together, 80% go to better
:06:59. > :07:06.off households and the poorest third or worse. What help -- what happened
:07:07. > :07:13.to help the just about managing? The Resolution Foundation exists to find
:07:14. > :07:18.the worst possible statistics... It is not clear the figures are wrong?
:07:19. > :07:22.They are fairly recent figures and I have not seen analysis by other
:07:23. > :07:27.organisations. The Adam Smith Institute will probably have some
:07:28. > :07:30.question marks over it. Nobody should be surprised a Tory
:07:31. > :07:36.government is trying to make the state smaller... And the poor
:07:37. > :07:40.poorer. The system is propped up by better off people and so it will be
:07:41. > :07:48.those people who will be slightly less heavily taxed as you make the
:07:49. > :07:52.state smaller. Theresa May will have to stop just talking about the just
:07:53. > :07:55.about managing. And some of her other language and the role of the
:07:56. > :08:00.government and the state when she sounded quite positive... She
:08:01. > :08:05.sounded like a big government conservative not small government.
:08:06. > :08:12.In every set piece occasion, she says, it is time to look at the good
:08:13. > :08:17.the government can do. That is not what you heard from Mrs Thatcher.
:08:18. > :08:22.Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would not have dared to say it either even
:08:23. > :08:28.if they believed it. It raises a much bigger question which is, as
:08:29. > :08:31.well as whether this is a set of progressive measures, the Resolution
:08:32. > :08:36.Foundation constantly argued when George Osborne announced his budget
:08:37. > :08:41.measures as progressive when they were regressive when they checked
:08:42. > :08:45.out the figures, but also how this government was going to meet the
:08:46. > :08:49.demand for public services when it has ruled out virtually any tax
:08:50. > :08:53.rises that you would normally do now, including National Insurance.
:08:54. > :08:59.There are a whole range of nightmare issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray
:09:00. > :09:03.in relation to tax. The Resolution Foundation figures do not include
:09:04. > :09:07.the rise in the minimum wage which has just gone under way. They do not
:09:08. > :09:11.include the tax free childcare from the end of April, the extra 15 hours
:09:12. > :09:17.of free childcare from September. Even when you include these, it does
:09:18. > :09:20.not look like it would offset the losses of the poorest households.
:09:21. > :09:26.Doesn't that have to be a problem for Theresa May? It really is a
:09:27. > :09:29.problem especially when her narrative and indeed entire purpose
:09:30. > :09:34.in government is for that just about managing. What Mrs May still has
:09:35. > :09:39.which is exactly a problem they have at the budget and the Autumn
:09:40. > :09:43.Statement is that they are still saddled with George Osborne's
:09:44. > :09:49.massive ring fences on tax cuts and spending. They have to go through
:09:50. > :09:53.with the tax cut for the middle classes by pushing up the higher
:09:54. > :09:57.rate threshold which is absolutely going to do nothing for the just
:09:58. > :10:00.about managing. When they try to mitigate that, for example, in the
:10:01. > :10:04.Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was told to come up with more money to
:10:05. > :10:08.ease the cuts in tax credits, came up with 350 million, an absolute...
:10:09. > :10:15.It is billions and billions involved. Marginal adjustment. A
:10:16. > :10:18.huge problem with the actual tax and benefit changes going on with what
:10:19. > :10:23.Mrs May as saying. The only way to fix it is coming up with more money
:10:24. > :10:27.to alleviate that. Where will you find it? Philip Hammond tried in the
:10:28. > :10:31.Budget with the National Insurance rises but it lasted six and a half
:10:32. > :10:37.days. I was told that it was one of the reasons why the Chancellor
:10:38. > :10:42.looked kindly on the idea of an early election because he wanted to
:10:43. > :10:47.get rid of what he regards as an albatross around his neck, the Tory
:10:48. > :10:51.manifesto 2015, no increase in income tax, no increase in VAT, no
:10:52. > :10:57.increase in National Insurance, fuel duty was not cut when fuel prices
:10:58. > :11:02.were falling so it is hardly going to rise now when they are rising
:11:03. > :11:06.again. This is why, I suggest, they end up in these incredibly
:11:07. > :11:10.complicated what we used to call stealth taxes as ways of trying to
:11:11. > :11:15.raise money and invariably a blow up in your face. Stealth taxes never
:11:16. > :11:21.end up being stealthy. It is part of the narrative that budget begins to
:11:22. > :11:26.fall apart within hours. You have to have sympathy, as Tom says, with
:11:27. > :11:31.Philip Hammond. No wonder he would like to be liberated. The early
:11:32. > :11:34.election will not happen. The best argument I have heard for an early
:11:35. > :11:37.election. The tax and spend about at the last election was a disaster
:11:38. > :11:45.partly because the Conservatives feared they would lose. Maybe they
:11:46. > :11:51.could be a bit more candid about the need to put up some taxes to pay for
:11:52. > :11:54.public services and it is very interesting what you picked up on
:11:55. > :12:00.Philip Hammond because he is trapped. So constrained about... You
:12:01. > :12:05.can also reopen the Ring fencing and spending and the obvious place to go
:12:06. > :12:11.is the triple lock, OAP spending. Another case for an election. He
:12:12. > :12:17.cannot undo the promise to that demographic. We will not get to 2020
:12:18. > :12:22.without something breaking. The Prime Minister, the trade secretary
:12:23. > :12:30.and Mr Hammond, they are off to India, the Far East, talking up
:12:31. > :12:36.trade with these countries, I do not know if any of you are going? Sadly
:12:37. > :12:41.not. Will it produce dividends? The prime Minster is going somewhere
:12:42. > :12:46.too. No, it will not, the honest answer. No one will do a trade deal
:12:47. > :12:49.with us because we cannot do one because we are still in the EU and
:12:50. > :12:52.they need to know what our terms will be with the EU first before
:12:53. > :12:57.they can work out how they want to trade with us. This is vital
:12:58. > :13:01.preparatory work. Ministers always go somewhere in recess, it is what
:13:02. > :13:06.they do. We will not see anything in a hurry, we will not see anything
:13:07. > :13:12.for two years. They have to do it. Whatever side of the joint you are
:13:13. > :13:17.on, Brexit, remain, we need to get out there. -- the argument. We
:13:18. > :13:20.should have been doing this the day after the referendum result. It is
:13:21. > :13:25.now several months down the line and they need to step it up, not the
:13:26. > :13:30.opposite. You can make some informal talks, I guess. You can say, Britain
:13:31. > :13:36.is open for business. There is a symbolism to it. What a lot of
:13:37. > :13:40.energy sucked up into this. Parliament is not sitting so they
:13:41. > :13:46.might as well start talking. We have run out of energy and time. That is
:13:47. > :13:50.it for today. We are off for the Easter recess, back in two weeks'
:13:51. > :13:53.time. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is that
:13:54. > :14:21.used to recess! -- Easter recess. Marine Le Pen has her eyes
:14:22. > :14:25.on the French presidency. As she tries to distance herself
:14:26. > :14:29.from her party's controversial past,