:00:36. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.Theresa May says she has no plans to increase tax levels,
:00:44. > :00:47.but refuses to repeat David Cameron's 2015 manifesto
:00:48. > :00:54.promise ruling out hikes in VAT, national insurance and income tax.
:00:55. > :00:57.The leaders of the EU's 27 member states unanimously
:00:58. > :01:01.agree their negotiating strategy for the upcoming Brexit talks, but
:01:02. > :01:11.And in the last of our series of interviews ahead of Thursday's
:01:12. > :01:21.Later in the programme, the Tories to the leader of Plaid Cymru Leanne
:01:22. > :01:24.Later in the programme, the Tories on brink of a historic breakthrough
:01:25. > :01:28.in Wales? May the They hit an all-time low
:01:29. > :01:49.after coalition government, but are the Lib Dems
:01:50. > :01:49.poised to bounce back, And with me to analyse
:01:50. > :01:55.the week's politics, Isabel Oakeshott, Steve Richards,
:01:56. > :01:56.Tom Newton-Dunn. They'll be tweeting
:01:57. > :01:58.using the hashtag #bbcsp. So when Theresa May was interviewed
:01:59. > :02:01.just over an hour ago on The Andrew Marr Show,
:02:02. > :02:03.the Prime Minister was asked to confirm that she would repeat
:02:04. > :02:05.David Cameron's 2015 election promise not to raise VAT,
:02:06. > :02:07.national insurance and income tax We have absolutely no plans
:02:08. > :02:12.to increase the level of tax, but I'm also very clear that I don't
:02:13. > :02:15.want to make specific proposals on taxes unless I'm absolutely sure
:02:16. > :02:18.that I can deliver on those. But it is, would be my intention
:02:19. > :02:21.as a Conservative Government and a Conservative Prime Minister,
:02:22. > :02:30.to reduce the taxes The Tories like to have a clear tax
:02:31. > :02:34.message in elections, are they getting into a bit of a mess? That
:02:35. > :02:39.method wasn't clear, but does it mean, saying they have no plans to
:02:40. > :02:43.increase the level of tax? We are clear there will not be a rise in
:02:44. > :02:46.VAT, a lot of commentators will get overexcited about that, but there
:02:47. > :02:53.was no great expectations there would be a rise in VAT. Tempting as
:02:54. > :02:58.it is, because even one percentage point on VAT rate is 4.5 billion for
:02:59. > :03:02.the exchequer so it is tempting but there has been no speculation that
:03:03. > :03:08.would happen. We can see that she clearly wants to reiterate the
:03:09. > :03:13.language about hard-working families but I don't think we are that much
:03:14. > :03:18.the wiser. Even if she does not put up rates, according to projections
:03:19. > :03:22.the overall tax burden, as a percentage of GDP, is rising, will
:03:23. > :03:27.rise in the years ahead. That is why it was an odd phrase, I know she is
:03:28. > :03:32.doing it to be evasive but to say they have no plans to raise the
:03:33. > :03:36.general level of taxation, they do have. We also know they have
:03:37. > :03:43.specific plans because it was in the last budget, they had a tax rise
:03:44. > :03:47.which they had to revise, National Insurance rises, so very wisely in
:03:48. > :03:53.my view they are keeping options open, the 2015 tax-and-spend debate
:03:54. > :04:00.was a fantasy world, totally unrelated to the demands that would
:04:01. > :04:03.follow. They now have the flexibility, one of the arguments
:04:04. > :04:08.you had heard last time was Philip Hammond saying to her, we have to
:04:09. > :04:13.break away from the 2015 manifesto commitment and we can only do it
:04:14. > :04:17.this way, that is one of the better arguments. The Tories like to talk
:04:18. > :04:21.about tax cuts in elections, whether they do it is another matter, but
:04:22. > :04:26.they are not being allowed to talk about tax cuts, they are now on the
:04:27. > :04:32.defensive over whether they will raise taxes. That is not a healthy
:04:33. > :04:35.position for the campaign to be in. If you look at the numbers, quite
:04:36. > :04:40.frankly, if you will not do this at this election with eight 20 point
:04:41. > :04:44.lead over Labour, then when will you take these tough decisions? Reading
:04:45. > :04:47.between the lines of what Theresa May has said all over different
:04:48. > :04:52.broadcasters this morning, income tax will go down for low-income
:04:53. > :04:57.families, such as the threshold rise that microbes that was already
:04:58. > :05:01.factored in. She has had to commit to it again. VAT will be fat,
:05:02. > :05:09.national insurance contributions will go up. Do you think they will
:05:10. > :05:14.go up? I think so, she had plenty of opportunity to rule it out and she
:05:15. > :05:18.didn't. There was a terrible mess with the budget, it is a good tax
:05:19. > :05:22.argument but not a good electoral argument that you are eroding the
:05:23. > :05:26.base so heavily with people moving into self-employment that as you
:05:27. > :05:29.raise national insurance contributions for everybody but the
:05:30. > :05:32.self-employed, it is something the Treasury will have to look at. The
:05:33. > :05:36.other triple lock on pensions, we don't know if they will keep to that
:05:37. > :05:42.either? If they are sensible they will find a form of words to give
:05:43. > :05:47.them flexibility in that area as well. I would say there is no
:05:48. > :05:52.question over that, that has gone. As Mrs May would say, you will have
:05:53. > :05:56.to wait for the manifesto. That is what all the party leaders tell me!
:05:57. > :05:58.Labour have spent the weekend pushing their messages
:05:59. > :06:01.Speaking at a camapign rally in London yesterday,
:06:02. > :06:04.Jeremy Corbyn promised a Labour government would fix what he called
:06:05. > :06:12.People are fed up, fed up with not being able to get somewhere to live,
:06:13. > :06:15.fed up waiting for hospital appointments, fed up with 0-hours
:06:16. > :06:21.contracts, fed up with low pay, fed up with debt, fed up with not being
:06:22. > :06:23.able to get on in their lives because we have a system that is
:06:24. > :06:27.rigged against so many. I've been joined from Newcastle
:06:28. > :06:28.by Labour's elections and campaigns co-ordinator,
:06:29. > :06:40.Ian Lavery. Good morning. To deal with this
:06:41. > :06:43.rigged economy, as Mr Corbyn calls it, the Shadow Chancellor John
:06:44. > :06:47.McDonnell has a 20 point plan for workers out today. When you add up
:06:48. > :06:52.everything he plans to do to help workers, how much will it cost? The
:06:53. > :06:57.full costings, one thing I need to say at the very beginning, the
:06:58. > :07:01.costings of any policy which we have already ruled out and any policy we
:07:02. > :07:06.will be ruling out in the next few days and weeks will be fully costed
:07:07. > :07:12.in the manifesto and in addition to the fact that it will be fully
:07:13. > :07:15.costed, we will see it in the manifesto how indeed it has been
:07:16. > :07:20.funded, so we are very clear, anything we have seen already, and
:07:21. > :07:24.there are some exciting policy releases and there will be more in
:07:25. > :07:28.the future, anything we are going to do will be fully costed and in the
:07:29. > :07:31.manifesto. You announced a 20 point plan but cannot tell me what the
:07:32. > :07:38.costs will be this morning so at the moment it is a menu without prices?
:07:39. > :07:41.It is not a menu without prices, it is a fantastic opportunity. This 20
:07:42. > :07:46.point plan is something which will transform the lives of millions of
:07:47. > :07:51.millions of people in the workplace... But what is the cost?
:07:52. > :07:55.It will be welcomed by many people across the UK. The fact the costings
:07:56. > :07:59.have not been released, you will have to be patient, it will be
:08:00. > :08:05.released very clearly, it will identify that in the manifesto. Let
:08:06. > :08:09.me come down to one of the points, the end of the public sector pay
:08:10. > :08:14.freeze. Can you give us any idea how much that will cost? The end of the
:08:15. > :08:20.public sector pay freeze, so important to the future of the
:08:21. > :08:25.Labour Party, it is an massive policy decision. Let me say at this
:08:26. > :08:30.stage, Theresa May, the Prime Minister, this morning, on The
:08:31. > :08:34.Andrew Marr Show, did not have the common decency, courtesy all respect
:08:35. > :08:39.to condone the fact that nurses, the heroes of the NHS, have had a
:08:40. > :08:44.reduction of nearly 14% in their wages since 2010 and are using food
:08:45. > :08:50.banks to feed themselves! Does that not say everything that is wrong
:08:51. > :08:55.with today's society? So can you tell me what it will cost, which is
:08:56. > :08:59.what my question was? What I will say is everything the Labour Party
:09:00. > :09:04.pledges, everything that we come out with, what we will roll out between
:09:05. > :09:07.now and the 8th of June, will be fully costed, people will be very
:09:08. > :09:11.much aware of how much the costings will be, where the funding will come
:09:12. > :09:17.from, when the manifesto is published. What about doubling
:09:18. > :09:19.paternity leave, nu minimum wage, four new bank holidays, any idea
:09:20. > :09:32.what it will cost? These are exciting new
:09:33. > :09:35.proposals and of course today cost money but we are the sixth richest
:09:36. > :09:37.economy in the world. It is about redistribution of the wealth we
:09:38. > :09:40.create. We are seeing growth in the economy, it is how we utilise the
:09:41. > :09:45.finances in the best way we possibly can for a fairer society for the
:09:46. > :09:49.many and not the few. You just can't tell me how much it will cost? That
:09:50. > :09:55.is why I will repeat again that you need to be very patient. Do you know
:09:56. > :09:59.the cost yourself? You are the head of the campaign, do you know the
:10:00. > :10:03.cost of these things yourself? I am very much aware of how much the
:10:04. > :10:08.costings are likely to be, they have been identified, they will be
:10:09. > :10:12.published in the manifesto. You really do understand I would not be
:10:13. > :10:17.releasing today, live on your show, any costings or predictions with
:10:18. > :10:22.regards the manifesto. Why not? You have released the policy, why not
:10:23. > :10:26.the cost? Because there is a fine detail and we will identify it to
:10:27. > :10:31.the general public in the manifesto. We not only explain how much it will
:10:32. > :10:38.cost but we will explain where the funding comes from. Be patient. Will
:10:39. > :10:45.some of the costs be met by increasing taxes? I would think at
:10:46. > :10:50.this point in time there is not any indication to increase basic taxes
:10:51. > :10:54.and again the taxes and spending of the Labour Government with the
:10:55. > :10:59.proposals of the 20 point plan, the issues we have got, housing, the
:11:00. > :11:05.NHS, crime, education will all be identified with the costings in the
:11:06. > :11:10.publication. Can you tell us this morning, we'll tax for most people
:11:11. > :11:15.rise or not to finance this? We in the Labour Party are looking to a
:11:16. > :11:25.fair tax system which will be clearly identified in the manifesto.
:11:26. > :11:28.Mr McDonnell also wants to ban all 0-hours contracts. Would that
:11:29. > :11:33.include those who actually like those contracts? There are nearly 1
:11:34. > :11:38.million, depending on which figured you'd use, there are nearly 1
:11:39. > :11:41.million people on zero-hours contract and the vast proportion of
:11:42. > :11:45.those want to be able to live a decent life, a secure life, they
:11:46. > :11:53.want to understand whether they will be at work the next day, they're
:11:54. > :11:55.included hours... I understand a lot of people don't like zero-hours
:11:56. > :12:02.contract and your proposal will address that, but there are those, I
:12:03. > :12:06.saw one survey where 65% of people on zero-hours contract like the
:12:07. > :12:09.flexibility it gives them. Will you force them off zero-hours contract
:12:10. > :12:13.or if they like them will they continue with them? We will discuss
:12:14. > :12:18.it with employee is to make sure individuals in the workplace have
:12:19. > :12:26.the right to negotiate hours in that workplace. Guaranteed hours is very,
:12:27. > :12:31.very important. Zero-hour contracts are an instrument in which employers
:12:32. > :12:35.abuse and exploit mainly young people, mainly female people in the
:12:36. > :12:40.workplace. We would be banning zero-hour contract. But there are
:12:41. > :12:44.those, students for example, who like them, would they be forced off
:12:45. > :12:49.zero-hour contracts in your proposal? Our proposal would be
:12:50. > :12:54.banning zero-hour contract and introducing contracts which have set
:12:55. > :12:58.hours in the workplace. You also say no company will be able to bid for a
:12:59. > :13:02.public contract unless the boss earns no more than 20 times the
:13:03. > :13:07.lowest paid, or the average wage, I'm not quite sure which. What would
:13:08. > :13:12.happen if British Aerospace bids to build more joint strike Fighters and
:13:13. > :13:17.the boss is paid more than 20 times? I understand the point you raise but
:13:18. > :13:25.we have an obscene situation in this country, Andrew, in which the bosses
:13:26. > :13:31.at the very top make an absolute fortune... But what would happen
:13:32. > :13:35.then? Who would build joint strike Fighters... The difference in wages
:13:36. > :13:41.between the top earners in the country and the people in the
:13:42. > :13:45.factories, in the workshops, producing the goods, is vast. I
:13:46. > :13:49.understand that is the reason you want a ratio. What I am saying is,
:13:50. > :13:53.what happens if the ratio is greater? Who gets the contract if
:13:54. > :14:02.not British Aerospace? Who else builds the planes? We are going to
:14:03. > :14:06.introduce a wage rate CEO of one to 20. -- wage ratio. We want to close
:14:07. > :14:10.the gap between the people at the very top and people who produce the
:14:11. > :14:14.goods. Let me try one more Time, who would build the joint strike
:14:15. > :14:21.fighter? We would look at the issue as it came along but the policy is
:14:22. > :14:24.clear... Can you name a single defence contractor weather boss'
:14:25. > :14:32.salary is less than 20 times average earnings? We are not reducing, we
:14:33. > :14:39.have rolled that out as part of this fantastic plan to transform society
:14:40. > :14:45.to get rid of discrimination, to try and bring together our communities.
:14:46. > :14:48.We will introduce a pay ratio of one to 20. Fair enough, thank you very
:14:49. > :14:50.much. It's a month after the triggering
:14:51. > :14:53.of Article 50, and EU leaders - with the exception of Britain -
:14:54. > :14:56.met in Brussels this weekend to agree their opening negotiating
:14:57. > :15:12.stance, to get the divorce It is inside this psychedelic
:15:13. > :15:17.chamber where Britain's 'Grexit' future will be decided over the next
:15:18. > :15:21.two years, but there is a vast gulf in rhetoric coming from the UK and
:15:22. > :15:31.the EU. With parallel narratives emerging for both sides. There is
:15:32. > :15:35.broad agreement that an orderly withdrawal is in the interests of
:15:36. > :15:39.both sides. But Theresa May's position is that the terms of our
:15:40. > :15:43.future trade deal should be negotiated alongside the terms of
:15:44. > :15:49.our divorce. Meanwhile the EU says the terms of the UK's exit must be
:15:50. > :15:53.decided before any discussion on a future trade deal can begin. But
:15:54. > :15:58.don't forget that divorce settlement. Don't remind me. In
:15:59. > :16:01.Brussels, many think written should pay even more, while in the UK
:16:02. > :16:03.ministers said the divorce bill should be capped at 3 billion. After
:16:04. > :16:16.you. Thank you. For are you looking forward to it?
:16:17. > :16:22.Isn't that divorce bill a bit high? Isn't this about punishing Britain?
:16:23. > :16:29.We are very united, you all seem so surprised but it's a fact. How soon
:16:30. > :16:35.can we get a deal? We have to wait for the elections. It was the
:16:36. > :16:39.decision of Mrs May. It took over an hour for the leaders to make their
:16:40. > :16:44.entrances but once inside it's just a few minutes to agree the
:16:45. > :16:48.negotiating guidelines. They set out three main areas. The first phase of
:16:49. > :16:52.talks on the divorce settlement will deal with the existing financial
:16:53. > :16:57.commitments to the EU, the Northern Ireland border and the rights of EU
:16:58. > :17:01.citizens in the UK. They said a UK trade agreement can be discussed
:17:02. > :17:06.when the first phase of talks reaches significant progress. And
:17:07. > :17:09.that there must be unity in the negotiations, that individual EU
:17:10. > :17:16.members won't negotiate separately with the UK. They are quite good
:17:17. > :17:20.here at negotiating because they are used to it. They set a maximum and
:17:21. > :17:24.then they have to recede a little bit depending on what the other side
:17:25. > :17:30.is prepared to offer. I think there is room for manoeuvre in some
:17:31. > :17:35.issues, but I don't think some of the baseline things will change that
:17:36. > :17:39.much. For example I don't think the European Union will concede on the
:17:40. > :17:44.rights of citizens who are already in the UK. It will be very difficult
:17:45. > :17:49.for them to accept that they will not be any exit bill, and the
:17:50. > :17:53.question of Northern Ireland is very important as well, the hard order
:17:54. > :17:57.question. The baseline things are not going to move that much, then
:17:58. > :18:02.you have room for manoeuvring between. On security, defence and
:18:03. > :18:06.the fight against terrorism, the guidelines said the EU stands ready
:18:07. > :18:11.to work together. And after lunch, friendly signs from some EU leaders
:18:12. > :18:15.as they gave individual press conferences. Paul and said the talks
:18:16. > :18:18.should open doors to new opportunities and even German
:18:19. > :18:25.Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had earlier said some in Britain were
:18:26. > :18:27.deluded about Brexit, softened her tone saying there was no conspiracy
:18:28. > :18:33.against the UK. Unity was the buzzword at this summit and for once
:18:34. > :18:38.everybody seemed to be sticking to the script. That unity is not only
:18:39. > :18:41.amongst the 27 states, it's also among the institutions so many of
:18:42. > :18:47.the divisions we have seen in the past at European level do not exist.
:18:48. > :18:50.That is very important and it's not be unity that is directed somehow
:18:51. > :18:55.against the UK because I think we all want this to be an orderly
:18:56. > :19:07.process and part of that is that the EU side is unified. So although
:19:08. > :19:12.there are no surprises here, what took place in this room was a
:19:13. > :19:15.significant step towards the real Brexit negotiations which will begin
:19:16. > :19:18.soon after the general election in June, said to be the most complex
:19:19. > :19:22.the UK has faced in our lifetimes. Isabel, Steve and Tom
:19:23. > :19:33.are still with me. Isabel, doesn't the British media
:19:34. > :19:37.have to be a bit careful here? We would never take at face value
:19:38. > :19:42.anything a British politician tells us. We would question it, put it in
:19:43. > :19:47.context and wonder if they are bluffing, but we seem to take at
:19:48. > :19:50.face value anything a European politician says about these
:19:51. > :19:56.negotiations. You only have to look at the front page of the Sunday
:19:57. > :19:59.Times today to see that. They quoted at length Juncker, who didn't like
:20:00. > :20:05.the food at the reception and this and that, and I think the mood is
:20:06. > :20:09.very optimistic. The key thing is the EU trade Commissioner has said
:20:10. > :20:13.we will get a free trade deal and a lot of people seem to be wilfully
:20:14. > :20:17.ignoring that incredibly big concession. That is what will happen
:20:18. > :20:24.in their view. Everything that is said at the moment needs a slight
:20:25. > :20:28.rerun over. They are all in negotiating positions, plus we seem
:20:29. > :20:33.to be completely unaware that they all have their own domestic
:20:34. > :20:36.constituencies as well. Angela Merkel has an important election
:20:37. > :20:40.coming up in September, Euroscepticism is quite different
:20:41. > :20:44.from Britain of course, but there's a different kind of euro scepticism
:20:45. > :20:49.in Germany, she has got to deal with that. Of course she has, which is
:20:50. > :20:55.why you are right, nothing should be taken too seriously out of the
:20:56. > :20:59.mouths of British politicians or European politicians until October
:21:00. > :21:02.this year. We have got to wait for the French elections, then German
:21:03. > :21:08.elections, and if you look through this you can see a way forward.
:21:09. > :21:12.There's no trade talks until pay up, but what was actually written was no
:21:13. > :21:16.trade talks until we make significant progress on the money.
:21:17. > :21:21.You can define significant progress in a lot of ways but come December,
:21:22. > :21:25.fireworks over the summer, we all get very excited about it, in these
:21:26. > :21:30.chairs I'm sure, come December things will look a lot smoother. The
:21:31. > :21:33.German elections are at the end of September but I've seen reports in
:21:34. > :21:37.German press, depending how it goes it could take until Christmas before
:21:38. > :21:43.a new coalition government is put together. The Brussels long-standing
:21:44. > :21:48.negotiating tactic of nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,
:21:49. > :21:52.then I guess the British could say we agree a certain sum of money if
:21:53. > :21:57.that's what it takes but that depends on them, what good trade
:21:58. > :22:03.deal we get. If we don't get that, the sum of money is off the table.
:22:04. > :22:08.In that sense, the two are going parallel. However, I wouldn't
:22:09. > :22:13.entirely dismiss what people are saying in their pre-election periods
:22:14. > :22:18.to their own electorates because they have to some extent to deliver
:22:19. > :22:20.subsequently. Of course Angela Merkel is campaigning and
:22:21. > :22:24.electioneering, who wouldn't, she has a tough election to fight, but
:22:25. > :22:28.she is measured and thoughtful and when she says things like some of
:22:29. > :22:37.the British are delusional, that is unusually strong language for her.
:22:38. > :22:41.What was she referring to? I don't know, it wasn't specific. Have the
:22:42. > :22:44.cake and eat it perhaps the sequencing the British don't want.
:22:45. > :22:48.When they thought the British government was going to effectively
:22:49. > :22:55.demand membership of the single market, that's not going to happen
:22:56. > :22:59.now. Unless you sign up to the four pillars, that's the cake and eat it
:23:00. > :23:04.proposition, which they are right in saying Theresa May has made. But
:23:05. > :23:11.everybody has access, even with no deal you have access. The other side
:23:12. > :23:19.of it is I think there will be a united position from them. And so,
:23:20. > :23:24.as somebody pointed out in that report, they are experienced, tough
:23:25. > :23:34.negotiators, so I don't think it will be quite as easy as some think.
:23:35. > :23:37.I spoke to one of those who drew up Article 50 and they said to me they
:23:38. > :23:44.deliberately put this two year timetable in to make it impossible
:23:45. > :23:47.for anybody to think about leaving. This is really tight, this
:23:48. > :23:49.negotiation. Easy, it isn't. This coming Thursday,
:23:50. > :23:52.voters up and down the country will be going to the polls in this
:23:53. > :23:55.year's local elections. Over the past few weeks I've
:23:56. > :23:56.interviewed representatives of the Conservative Party,
:23:57. > :23:58.Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Today it's the turn
:23:59. > :24:02.of Plaid Cymru and the SNP. A little earlier I spoke
:24:03. > :24:04.Alex Salmond, who until 2014 I started by asking him why Scots
:24:05. > :24:08.should vote SNP in local elections when the Scottish Government had
:24:09. > :24:24.just cut central Government funding It's actually a funding increase
:24:25. > :24:28.going into Scottish councils this year, and if you look at the funding
:24:29. > :24:32.position for example between Scottish councils and those in
:24:33. > :24:36.England, which are obviously directly related through the Barnett
:24:37. > :24:41.formula, the funding in Scotland has been incomparably better than that
:24:42. > :24:50.in England so there's a whole range of the -- of reasons... What's
:24:51. > :24:53.happening south of the border indicates the protection the
:24:54. > :24:57.Scottish Parliament has been able to put in that helps vital services in
:24:58. > :25:02.Scotland. But there hasn't been a funding increase, the block grant
:25:03. > :25:07.from Westminster to Edinburgh was increased by 1.5% in real terms but
:25:08. > :25:13.the grant to councils was cut by 2.6%. It was going to be a cut of
:25:14. > :25:25.330 million, the Greens got you to reduce it to 170 million but it is
:25:26. > :25:29.still a cut of 2.6%. Your own Aberdeenshire Council has had a cut
:25:30. > :25:32.to 391 million. You have cut the money to councils. Yes, but councils
:25:33. > :25:35.have available to them more resources this year, and as you say
:25:36. > :25:41.the budget increased that further which is why we put forward an
:25:42. > :25:45.excellent local government budget in Aberdeenshire and resisted a Tory
:25:46. > :25:51.attempts to knock ?3 million off... You asked me about Aberdeenshire,
:25:52. > :25:57.and Aberdeenshire has put forward a budget for investment expansion and
:25:58. > :26:00.resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3 million off the education budget,
:26:01. > :26:05.and I'm very grateful you have given me the opportunity to make that
:26:06. > :26:12.point. The Government in Edinburgh has cut the money to Aberdeenshire
:26:13. > :26:16.by ?11 million. It is a cut. But there is an investment budget in
:26:17. > :26:21.Aberdeenshire that has been made available by the ability to increase
:26:22. > :26:25.the council tax by 2.5% after a nine-year freeze in Scotland, and
:26:26. > :26:29.that has brought more resources into local government and that's why the
:26:30. > :26:32.butchered in Aberdeenshire has been an investment budget including
:26:33. > :26:38.protection of the education budget in the face of a Tory and liberal
:26:39. > :26:42.attempt to cut bit. You have to compare what is happening in
:26:43. > :26:45.Scotland and England, and there's no doubt Scottish local authorities
:26:46. > :26:51.have been much better funded than those in England over the last few
:26:52. > :26:53.years and that's been the ability of the Scottish Government to protect
:26:54. > :27:00.the services at local level. A good reason for voting SNP. If they have
:27:01. > :27:06.been so well funded, why after a decade of SNP rule do one in five
:27:07. > :27:13.Scottish pupils leave primary school functionally illiterate? You have
:27:14. > :27:17.got to take these things... Nicola Sturgeon has made it a top priority
:27:18. > :27:23.to address these challenges but let's take another statistic. 93% of
:27:24. > :27:27.Scottish kids are now emerging from school to positive destinations,
:27:28. > :27:36.that means to further education, apprenticeships or work. Why are one
:27:37. > :27:39.in five functionally illiterate? You argue one statistic, I'm arguing
:27:40. > :27:44.Scottish education is putting in some substantially good performances
:27:45. > :27:49.like the 93% going on to positive destinations. You can't have a
:27:50. > :27:54.failing education system if you have got that 93%, and incidentally a
:27:55. > :27:58.record low youth unemployment in Scotland without the second lowest
:27:59. > :28:02.unemployment rate in Europe. These pupils are being prepared by the
:28:03. > :28:08.Scottish education system. Let's take the figures in the round on
:28:09. > :28:14.education. It's so important. Under your watch, under your government,
:28:15. > :28:22.the Scottish schools in the most important global comparison have
:28:23. > :28:27.fallen from tenth to 19th in science, and 11 to 24th in maths,
:28:28. > :28:36.that is a record of decline and failure. That is by the OECD and
:28:37. > :28:39.first questions about that, but the OECD has also described Scotland is
:28:40. > :28:43.one of the best educated societies in the world. That was from the
:28:44. > :28:49.school system in previous years gone by. For those who are currently in
:28:50. > :28:55.Scottish schools, you have fallen from 11th to 24th in mathematics.
:28:56. > :28:58.The OECD was commenting on introduction of the new curriculum
:28:59. > :29:03.for excellence in which they have given a resounding thumbs up to it,
:29:04. > :29:08.and that's the same source as the rankings which you are comparing.
:29:09. > :29:11.Nicola Sturgeon has said there are challenges on Scottish education,
:29:12. > :29:15.particularly the access through the education system and the attainment
:29:16. > :29:19.gap but don't tell me it's failing when 55% of our pupils have gone on
:29:20. > :29:24.to higher education. That's one of the most impressive figures in the
:29:25. > :29:30.world. Why have you cut 4000 teachers? The pupil numbers in
:29:31. > :29:33.Scotland have been falling over recent years as well and now of
:29:34. > :29:37.course we are increasing the number of people going through teachers
:29:38. > :29:42.training so we can make sure that number increases, but listen, the
:29:43. > :29:47.Scottish Government and Scottish Parliament, as you very well know,
:29:48. > :29:50.are subject to real terms spending cuts over the last few years and all
:29:51. > :29:54.public services have been under pressure. The main reason in terms
:29:55. > :29:58.of teacher numbers has been an attempt on the Scottish Government
:29:59. > :30:05.to protect the teacher pupil ratio, and that will now be enhanced by a
:30:06. > :30:13.further taker -- intake. You promised you would reduce primary
:30:14. > :30:18.class sizes to 18 and instead they are now 23.5 and rising. You broke
:30:19. > :30:22.that promise. You didn't mention where we started from. We have kept
:30:23. > :30:27.the teacher pupil ratio very solid in Scotland and that's been against
:30:28. > :30:30.a range of public expenditure cuts but the new intake of teachers into
:30:31. > :30:36.the new teacher training in Scotland I think will enhance the system.
:30:37. > :30:44.You have spent in the pasty in Hollywood 43 hours on Government
:30:45. > :30:48.time debating independence. How many hours have you debated education on
:30:49. > :30:53.Government time? I don't have that they get a hand... The answer is
:30:54. > :30:57.zero, you have spent zero-hours debating education on Government
:30:58. > :31:04.time. Isn't it time the SNP got back to concentrating on the day job?
:31:05. > :31:08.Andrew, as you very well know Nicola Sturgeon has identified a key
:31:09. > :31:11.priority, closing the attainment gap in Scottish education. That is
:31:12. > :31:18.exactly what she has done. Let me answer the question, it is difficult
:31:19. > :31:21.to be in a remote location, if you talk before I answer the question
:31:22. > :31:30.then the view was will not be able to listen. I let you answer that
:31:31. > :31:34.without saying a word. Is this general election about independence,
:31:35. > :31:39.as you say it is, or not about independence, as Mrs Sturgeon says
:31:40. > :31:43.it is? No, I have said exactly the same as Nicola Sturgeon on that. The
:31:44. > :31:47.issue what independence will be decided in a national referendum of
:31:48. > :31:52.the Scottish people. The mandate for that referendum was gained in last
:31:53. > :31:55.year's Scottish elections. What this election is about is backing the
:31:56. > :31:59.right of the Scottish parliament to exercise that mandate and also
:32:00. > :32:03.providing real opposition to this Tory Government and allowing the
:32:04. > :32:06.Scottish Parliament to reverse austerity and some of the public
:32:07. > :32:10.expenditure cutbacks you have been talking about, that is what this is
:32:11. > :32:12.about, backing our Scottish Parliament.
:32:13. > :32:13.Alex Salmond, speaking to me earlier.
:32:14. > :32:16.I'm now joined by the leader of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood.
:32:17. > :32:23.You accuse the Government of wanting an extreme Brexit, those are your
:32:24. > :32:27.words. What is the difference between hard Brexit and extreme
:32:28. > :32:32.Brexit? My concern is the way in which we leave the European Union
:32:33. > :32:35.could be very damaging to Wales if, for example, there are tariffs
:32:36. > :32:42.introduced then that would have a real impact in terms of Welsh jobs,
:32:43. > :32:45.and I want to make sure that we have a Brexit that doesn't cause the
:32:46. > :32:51.damage to Wales that could be caused. But what is the difference
:32:52. > :32:55.between extreme and hard? Anything that puts Welsh jobs at risk is
:32:56. > :32:58.either extreme or hard and unacceptable to Plaid Cymru, and we
:32:59. > :33:03.will do what we can to protect those jobs. You want Wales to remain a
:33:04. > :33:08.member of the single market even if the UK isn't, which would mean Wales
:33:09. > :33:20.having to accept the free movement of people, still being under the
:33:21. > :33:22.jurisdiction of the European Court, and you also want to stay in the
:33:23. > :33:25.customs union which means you could not do your own free trade deals.
:33:26. > :33:28.What is the difference between that and being a member of the European
:33:29. > :33:30.Union? We would be like Norway, outside the European Union and
:33:31. > :33:34.inside the single market. The key question is the issue of jobs and
:33:35. > :33:38.the ability to continue to trade. Wales exports, we are the biggest
:33:39. > :33:42.exporter in the whole of the UK, so there are many jobs reliant upon
:33:43. > :33:52.those goods being able to be sold to the single market. Is it central to
:33:53. > :33:59.the UK? Out of the four countries that make up the UK...
:34:00. > :34:03.Proportionally, yes. If you remain in the single market, it is hard to
:34:04. > :34:08.see how Wales could stay in the single market if the UK -- when the
:34:09. > :34:13.rest of the UK was not, you cite Norway, that has free movement, it
:34:14. > :34:17.has to be said, it effectively have to accept the jurisdiction of the
:34:18. > :34:24.European Court, it is not in the customs union so it can do some of
:34:25. > :34:29.its own free trade deals, but the Welsh people voted to leave. We have
:34:30. > :34:33.to accept the principle of free movement if there is not going to be
:34:34. > :34:38.a hard border between the north and south of Ireland. There is going to
:34:39. > :34:41.be free movement within Ireland and therefore freedom of movement, as we
:34:42. > :34:48.said in the referendum campaign, would be very, very difficult to
:34:49. > :34:52.rule out. You lost that campaign, as you know, Wales voted to leave, 17
:34:53. > :34:59.Council areas voted to leave, only five voted to remain. Doesn't it
:35:00. > :35:04.explain why your party is going nowhere? A majority in Wales voted
:35:05. > :35:10.to leave but you effectively want to support that and de facto remain in
:35:11. > :35:14.the EU? I don't accept that, we accepted the result but Plaid Cymru
:35:15. > :35:19.now is about defending Wales. There are so many risks facing our people
:35:20. > :35:22.from the jobs perspective, the privatisation perspective, the cuts
:35:23. > :35:26.perspective, and from the fact that the Tories would like to grab power
:35:27. > :35:32.was back from our National Assembly, so the key point... If you look at
:35:33. > :35:36.the Wales bill that went through recently, the list of reserved
:35:37. > :35:40.powers there suggests there are some powers currently within the Welsh
:35:41. > :35:45.Assembly jurisdiction that would be dragged back. Which power was will
:35:46. > :35:50.Westminster take back? They could take powers back over the NHS, for
:35:51. > :35:59.example. There is no indication they want to do that. The Tories have
:36:00. > :36:06.attacked the Welsh NHS. That is my point! Quite viciously. If they
:36:07. > :36:10.increase their mandate, I wouldn't put it past them to try to take
:36:11. > :36:15.power was back over the NHS and then of course we risk our NHS being
:36:16. > :36:19.privatised though this election is all about defending Wales,
:36:20. > :36:23.protecting Welsh people from further privatisation and cuts and a power
:36:24. > :36:28.grab from the Tories. Why is there never a breakthrough for your party,
:36:29. > :36:32.Plaid Cymru? Labour dominated in Wales for years, the Tories do quite
:36:33. > :36:36.well, Ukip had a surge for a while, it looks like the Tories will have
:36:37. > :36:41.another surge, never you, always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Wait
:36:42. > :36:44.until Thursday and I think you will see that in many parts of Wales we
:36:45. > :36:50.will increase our representation at a local council level. In the
:36:51. > :36:56.Rhondda, where I am assembly member, we are looking to increase our
:36:57. > :37:04.representation... You are only 13% in the polls will stop which is half
:37:05. > :37:10.of even the Tories in Wales! If you don't breakthrough in the selection,
:37:11. > :37:15.if the real problem is going nowhere, do you think you will pack
:37:16. > :37:19.it in? Robert Green not, I have a job to do, a vision of Wales which
:37:20. > :37:23.is about building up our nation and standing on our own two feet and my
:37:24. > :37:25.job is not done yet. Thank you for being with us as part of your job,
:37:26. > :37:29.we will see how it goes on Thursday. It's just gone 11.35,
:37:30. > :37:31.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:37:32. > :37:34.in Scotland who leave us now Hello again and welcome to our buy
:37:35. > :37:47.one get one free election special. In a few minutes our report
:37:48. > :37:50.from the campaign trail And that extraordinary Welsh opinion
:37:51. > :37:57.poll we saw last week which put the Conservatives ten points
:37:58. > :38:00.ahead of Labour. So what does it all mean, and how
:38:01. > :38:05.are all the main parties doing? Jo Kiernan is the former Chief of
:38:06. > :38:08.Staff to the Labour First Minister, and Dr Sam Blaxland
:38:09. > :38:11.from Swansea University is an expert in the history
:38:12. > :38:25.of the Welsh Conservative Party. Thank you both are coming in.
:38:26. > :38:29.Locking at that Paul last week, from a Labour point of view, it is
:38:30. > :38:34.difficult to imagine when they seeing worst polling in Wales. It
:38:35. > :38:39.was awful, there's no dressing it up. Interestingly, though, you might
:38:40. > :38:45.have expected Labour to have got loads to do Lib Dems, we've had
:38:46. > :38:49.talks of a Lib Dem resurging scum Leanne Wood talking that they can
:38:50. > :38:56.stand up for Wales. Actually, we saw a collapse of the Ukip abode, a lot
:38:57. > :39:01.of Labour voters voted at Ukip last time switching their allegiance to
:39:02. > :39:04.the Tory party. It all plays into Theresa May basing this, one issue
:39:05. > :39:09.election, Brexit collection and it'll be hard to come back. What I
:39:10. > :39:14.would see as having been involved in the election campaign last year,
:39:15. > :39:18.involved in writing the manifesto, messaging and the strong standing up
:39:19. > :39:23.for Wales message that we had then, is that the pundits were writing us
:39:24. > :39:28.off, they were saying 23 seats, Carwyn Jones wouldn't be First
:39:29. > :39:32.Minister, things changed. The one thing the Labour Party has to get
:39:33. > :39:36.right is some very, very strong messaging in the 40 days ahead. When
:39:37. > :39:43.you see the Labour Party has together messaging, strong messaging
:39:44. > :39:48.for 40 days, do you see that as a UK Labour Party, or would you be
:39:49. > :39:55.tempted to say, let's focus, let's try rerun last year's election, have
:39:56. > :39:58.a Welsh election campaign here? You see some of that inevitably. There
:39:59. > :40:05.are lots of individual local elections going on, it was bad, you
:40:06. > :40:09.can't really uniform swing across. I don't think by any stretch of the
:40:10. > :40:15.imagination, sadly, Jeremy Corbyn will get a majority. But I think
:40:16. > :40:19.were some strong messaging, both locally and the UK level, a strong
:40:20. > :40:23.manifesto that shows there is a lot more at stake at the selection
:40:24. > :40:28.rather than just Brexit. Theresa May doesn't want to talk about things
:40:29. > :40:34.like benefit cuts, like tuition fee cuts, like the economy, house
:40:35. > :40:38.prices, GDP slumping, but there are some important things going to
:40:39. > :40:42.happen in the next five years, we need strong messaging, both
:40:43. > :40:47.nationally and locally. We will come onto the issues of the election, but
:40:48. > :40:53.just from that opinion Paul, I was looking back, 1859, the last time
:40:54. > :40:58.the Conservatives had more MPs than any other party in Wales, but only
:40:59. > :41:02.500,000 could bode back then. Are we over egging it saying it could
:41:03. > :41:09.happen, or is it a possibility? There is a more modern president, in
:41:10. > :41:17.1983, when Mrs Thatcher won 14 seats in Wales. There is a bedrock of
:41:18. > :41:20.support here, it is masked by the voting system, by first past the
:41:21. > :41:26.post, which doesn't always reveal there are these boards and other
:41:27. > :41:31.places. As we all know, Labour is the dominant party in Wales. A
:41:32. > :41:35.Conservative is the last 100 years have been a second party, in terms
:41:36. > :41:39.of the vote share and the valve seats one. Unless you look at
:41:40. > :41:43.something like the 1997 election when they were wiped away, in the
:41:44. > :41:48.vast majority of cases, the Conservatives are more popular in
:41:49. > :41:52.Plaid Cymru. Is it how Ukip has played into this, people have left
:41:53. > :42:04.Labour Ukip, but rather than returning to Labour, they're going
:42:05. > :42:07.to the Tories now? Is that where a lot of the support is coming from?
:42:08. > :42:09.I'm sure there is an element of that. It has always been a
:42:10. > :42:12.fascination, where has the Ukip vote come from? Is it the old core Labour
:42:13. > :42:17.support or the Conservative vote? They did well in those south Wales
:42:18. > :42:22.valleys seats, regardless of how bad it is, it will still stay Labour. It
:42:23. > :42:33.won't benefit the Conservatives if they lose those seeds. -- seats. You
:42:34. > :42:38.mentioned it was going to be a Brexit election, Theresa May does
:42:39. > :42:43.seem to be saying other than staying strong, she always says Brexit
:42:44. > :42:47.negotiations. From a Labour point of view and a Welsh Labour point of
:42:48. > :42:53.view, that a tricky one. Wales voted to leave, Labour isn't very clear in
:42:54. > :42:59.his messaging on Brexit. Where should they go on that? That is one
:43:00. > :43:03.of the problems, I don't think the choice is great for people in either
:43:04. > :43:08.other leaders, I don't think Theresa May is charismatic, she is
:43:09. > :43:13.conducting a campaign in a sealed room, doesn't talk to journalists,
:43:14. > :43:19.gets a Scottish Conservative leader to interview her. Jeremy Corbyn is
:43:20. > :43:22.entrusted on Brexit and the economy. But as more charismatic, likes
:43:23. > :43:26.getting out amongst the people, it is a tough choice. The reason she's
:43:27. > :43:31.framing it and is Brexit only is because she doesn't want to talk
:43:32. > :43:35.about other policies. Here I think you will see people talk and much
:43:36. > :43:45.more about what a Labour government in Wales has done, because we
:43:46. > :43:48.actually have one here. I'm trying to get some of those other policy
:43:49. > :43:50.issues out. People are finding it tough out there, even people with
:43:51. > :43:53.jobs. Massive rises are people using food banks. They need to push
:43:54. > :43:59.Theresa May to come up with policies, not allow her to carry on
:44:00. > :44:06.stable, secure, Brexit, Brexit. Is it all to lose but Theresa May? You
:44:07. > :44:14.just look at the opinion poll, but also of a UK wide opinion polls. She
:44:15. > :44:20.has is massively, but things can only go down. I was going to say.
:44:21. > :44:23.One had a large majority that any of Mrs Thatcher's landslides. If he
:44:24. > :44:32.doesn't achieve that, whether she go? We have to be careful about the
:44:33. > :44:36.uniform swing point. Yes, the voters may be moving towards the
:44:37. > :44:40.Conservatives, but not at all seats. If we are going to judge success on
:44:41. > :44:45.number of seats won, perhaps they won't do as well in Wales as they
:44:46. > :44:52.might hope. Some of the seat will be marginal. The big spanner we can
:44:53. > :44:56.throw into works is how Brexit will feature in the election, how will it
:44:57. > :45:04.make people vote, would be bold be tempted to bode Lib Dem, say, I
:45:05. > :45:12.voted to leave. Could that play in the concept is's favour? Shi it will
:45:13. > :45:19.be one of the most fascinating things. -- it will be one of the
:45:20. > :45:25.most fascinating things. There are lots of things to watch, Anglesey
:45:26. > :45:29.will be interesting. It Brexit is in plain strongly, Plaid Cymru might
:45:30. > :45:34.catch up. Whilst they support the idea of leaving the EU, they clearly
:45:35. > :45:41.are angling for votes, they have a standpoint which is about being
:45:42. > :45:45.pro-EU. If, for example, it went to Plaid Cymru, it might suggest people
:45:46. > :45:49.falling that way. It to the Conservatives, that might be an
:45:50. > :45:53.indication Brexit has played a larger role than than some may
:45:54. > :45:58.think. Which is what Theresa May ones. The interesting thing is as
:45:59. > :46:03.the only main pro-EU party, I kind of expected the Lib Dems to being
:46:04. > :46:07.doing better. We've heard talk of a resurgence, not much evidence of
:46:08. > :46:13.that. They will be disappointed. I remember in 2010, all the attention
:46:14. > :46:18.of the campaign was, it's going to be between conservative and Labour,
:46:19. > :46:27.Brown versus cameramen, and the Lib Dems did well. How difficult is it
:46:28. > :46:32.for small parties -- Cameron. It is difficult. Especially, this is being
:46:33. > :46:39.framed in terms of Brexit and Brexit only, it even harder. It Brexit is
:46:40. > :46:43.the main talking point, you would expect the Lib Dems to be getting
:46:44. > :46:48.some feed in there. It is not happening. I'm just not convinced we
:46:49. > :46:53.can go the next 40 days, six weeks just talking Brexit only. And
:46:54. > :46:58.actually, there will be stumbling blocks along the way. We know that,
:46:59. > :47:02.I've worked on another campaigns, both as an adviser and journalist,
:47:03. > :47:06.to know the unexpected happens. You only have to look at what happened
:47:07. > :47:14.to Gordon Brown on the campaign trail. Looking at where Plaid Cymru
:47:15. > :47:18.would be targeting, they are hoping, looking at, Leanne Wood, would she,
:47:19. > :47:24.wouldn't you? Is that what they need to be picking up? What the most
:47:25. > :47:30.intriguing thing is about their support and its successes or
:47:31. > :47:33.failures is it can't do it, there is a vacuum being left by Labour. That
:47:34. > :47:41.Plaid Cymru can't fill. That is because it is still perceived as a
:47:42. > :47:45.party which has a particularly appeal on the linguistic grounds, it
:47:46. > :47:48.still has a Welsh language parliament, despite Leanne Wood not
:47:49. > :47:56.being fluent. Welsh nationalism has a narrower appeal in the types of
:47:57. > :48:01.places, Llanelli, where the party might try and get a foothold. But
:48:02. > :48:06.they might struggle, Labour Party politics in these places. Labour
:48:07. > :48:11.voting is more than just politics, it is very much a sign of belonging
:48:12. > :48:16.to a kind of political community. That will still remain strong in a
:48:17. > :48:20.lot of these places, that Plaid Cymru will want to target. But
:48:21. > :48:24.you're advising hat back on the campaign, where should Labour be
:48:25. > :48:28.targeting its resources? It doesn't have an infinite pot of money, it
:48:29. > :48:32.has to target it. It doesn't need to be looking for new places, it needs
:48:33. > :48:39.to target the ones they've got. I think fair wind, Gower is an odd
:48:40. > :48:45.contingency, there should be no change there. I wouldn't mind a
:48:46. > :48:52.punt. I think Labour will keep Cardiff Central. I think the
:48:53. > :48:57.north-east Wales seats are really big challenges in this election.
:48:58. > :49:02.And, you know, it is going back to the referendum campaign, there was
:49:03. > :49:06.so much anger and fear around, and those constituencies sum that up,
:49:07. > :49:10.Labour need to show they are standing up for people, they
:49:11. > :49:16.understand people's needs and reassure them there is a sensible
:49:17. > :49:18.Brexit message. 40 days, plenty of time for those messages.
:49:19. > :49:22.Now as promised, spare a thought for the other elections happening
:49:23. > :49:30.The head of the Welsh Local Government Association says he's
:49:31. > :49:32.worried the General Election is overshadowing the poll
:49:33. > :49:36.No confusion about the date though, May the 4th.
:49:37. > :49:38.Easy to remember if you're a Star Wars fan of course.
:49:39. > :50:00.On Thursday, local elections will be held to Wales's 22 councils.
:50:01. > :50:03.There are more than 1200 seats up for grabs
:50:04. > :50:06.as voters decide who they'd like to run some of the most important
:50:07. > :50:11.Voting for your local councillor, you've got to bear
:50:12. > :50:18.in mind those issues that impact outside your front door, your local
:50:19. > :50:22.Litter, street lights, all the things in terms of parks,
:50:23. > :50:24.Those big services, education, social care
:50:25. > :50:29.So I think they will be key factors in terms of people's
:50:30. > :50:34.Whoever is elected this week will face tough decisions
:50:35. > :50:35.over the coming years, as council budgets are
:50:36. > :50:40.authorities are expected to make savings by working more closely
:50:41. > :50:46.Austerity has not been shut down, we know that next year,
:50:47. > :50:48.Mark Draper has warned about this, that the Welsh
:50:49. > :50:52.be very tight next year, we'll probably see further cuts in terms
:50:53. > :50:57.And we will require a range of very tough
:50:58. > :50:58.and difficult decisions from
:50:59. > :51:01.new councillors, who will have to hit the ground running.
:51:02. > :51:02.Meanwhile, Theresa May's decision to hold a
:51:03. > :51:06.snap election just five weeks after Thursday's poll worries those
:51:07. > :51:10.who'd like the local elections to take
:51:11. > :51:13.I think there is the danger with local elections as well
:51:14. > :51:16.that the local elections inevitably get crowded out by a national
:51:17. > :51:19.election, and I think we've seen a little bit of that.
:51:20. > :51:21.It's not surprising, I mean, there's a huge
:51:22. > :51:23.issues at stake with the national level,
:51:24. > :51:24.but that doesn't negate the
:51:25. > :51:28.The announcement of a general election, it feels like the two
:51:29. > :51:30.elections almost blend into one and the local
:51:31. > :51:38.large opinion poll for the general election, that's the danger.
:51:39. > :51:40.With political forces across Wales now
:51:41. > :51:44.preparing to do battle on two fronts, what do they make of the
:51:45. > :51:52.I think it has a galvanising effect on Labour voters.
:51:53. > :51:55.Labour voters who think that the Tories simply take
:51:56. > :52:00.That they can call an unnecessary election, and election for which
:52:01. > :52:02.there is no particular cause and then think
:52:03. > :52:05.they can just take it for
:52:06. > :52:10.I think if anything, it will probably energise people
:52:11. > :52:14.to understand that democracy at any level, especially local government
:52:15. > :52:18.level, is equally important as to who runs your local services
:52:19. > :52:22.So I think it's actually energising politicians and
:52:23. > :52:27.I think it's a bit unfortunate, and of course, Theresa
:52:28. > :52:30.May has her own plans about why she has called the election now.
:52:31. > :52:35.But in Plaid Cymru, we are busily campaigning already
:52:36. > :52:39.for the local elections and we are building on that.
:52:40. > :52:44.And what about Ukip and the Liberal Democrats?
:52:45. > :52:46.The general election could have been called
:52:47. > :52:50.perhaps a month later, we would have avoided
:52:51. > :52:56.some of this overlap, but
:52:57. > :52:59.there you are, Theresa May has called a general election for now,
:53:00. > :53:01.there are good reasons for doing it, I'm sure.
:53:02. > :53:04.So let's just hope that people do bear in mind they are
:53:05. > :53:07.voting on local issues when they go to the ballot box on the fourth.
:53:08. > :53:09.In 2012, when the Liberal Democrats had a
:53:10. > :53:11.very bad result here, it's because we were in
:53:12. > :53:14.People voted against us because of that, not
:53:15. > :53:16.because of what we were doing locally, so people will vote
:53:17. > :53:18.on national issues, but people will also vote
:53:19. > :53:23.It is my job as a politician and a local politician to go out
:53:24. > :53:25.there and persuade people that they have
:53:26. > :53:27.to vote for the right reasons in the right election.
:53:28. > :53:29.Another question that's been raised is, what impact
:53:30. > :53:32.could the general election have on the number
:53:33. > :53:34.of people who bother to
:53:35. > :53:37.Some have suggested voter fatigue may have already set
:53:38. > :53:40.in and turnout could be lower than usual.
:53:41. > :53:44.It was around 39% for the local elections five years ago.
:53:45. > :53:51.It might galvanise a slightly higher turnout.
:53:52. > :53:57.There is a spirit of discussion abroad at the moment.
:53:58. > :54:01.Hopefully people will turn out and they will make a commitment
:54:02. > :54:05.to vote in the local elections because, at
:54:06. > :54:07.the end of the day, this affects you as much
:54:08. > :54:13.And so for the fourth time in two years, Welsh voters head to
:54:14. > :54:26.Dr James Downe from Cardiff University is an expert
:54:27. > :54:39.You would be our Obi our council elections. We will stop that now.
:54:40. > :54:44.There is this danger that the local elections could be overshadowed by
:54:45. > :54:49.the general election. Is that something you go with? There's a
:54:50. > :54:52.danger here, local elections don't have a high profile, the do have a
:54:53. > :54:57.general election four weeks later can need the media focus the
:54:58. > :55:02.attention on national issues, so it is difficult for local parties to
:55:03. > :55:06.continue to get the message out that local matters matter of these
:55:07. > :55:11.elections. Could that also then affects the turnout for the
:55:12. > :55:17.elections? Yes, turnout rates are bad, and a 40%, general election
:55:18. > :55:20.turnout is 60, made 60%. People see local elections as being less
:55:21. > :55:26.important than general elections. It can go two ways, turnout is likely
:55:27. > :55:30.to go down, people talk about fatigue, lots of elections over the
:55:31. > :55:33.last three years. But on the positive side, there's more
:55:34. > :55:37.discussion generally. Hopefully that can have a positive effect and can
:55:38. > :55:43.increase turnout, but I expect it to be lower locally. On the issues for
:55:44. > :55:49.the election itself, we've seen the cuts to how much money councillors
:55:50. > :55:53.can spend, we've heard Steve Thomas in the past saying, he doesn't know
:55:54. > :55:57.why anybody would want to be a constant in this day and age because
:55:58. > :56:03.it's such a tough job. Whoever is in power, they will have a tough job to
:56:04. > :56:06.manage. Yes, they do. I feel sorry the councillors, if they do get
:56:07. > :56:10.affected, because they've got a difficult job. You don't become a
:56:11. > :56:14.counsellor to cut services, you want to improve them. The next five years
:56:15. > :56:19.will be a difficult time local government. They've experienced
:56:20. > :56:22.difficulties already. It's about making decisions to do things in
:56:23. > :56:26.different ways, to outsource services will deliver them with the
:56:27. > :56:30.public, so to co-produce services rather than deliver them to the
:56:31. > :56:36.people. Are we seeing a different approach and how they go about it?
:56:37. > :56:42.Is it too simplistic to say you can look at the Conservatives were back
:56:43. > :56:46.at outsourcing, Labour, maybe the Lib Dems would look at co-operation
:56:47. > :56:52.more. Is that too simplistic? I think it is. All parties come
:56:53. > :56:58.whoever is in control, need to look outside the box and to do things in
:56:59. > :57:00.different ways. It might be Labour outsourcing leisure services, you
:57:01. > :57:05.may not expect them to do it. When you're forced to make cuts, they
:57:06. > :57:09.have to be made. You need to find a way to deliver services, to keep
:57:10. > :57:15.standards up, but did use different methods. Is there a job to convince
:57:16. > :57:19.the public that you're not going to get all the services that you got
:57:20. > :57:25.when all the money was around and that running things themselves can
:57:26. > :57:30.actually enhanced community feeling? The public how I hate expectations,
:57:31. > :57:36.too high. Over the two years, they've kept standards up at a
:57:37. > :57:40.reasonable level across-the-board. The politicians need to manage the
:57:41. > :57:45.public and say, we are facing difficult times. You have to
:57:46. > :57:50.helpers. Whether that is taken over some libraries, for instant, or not
:57:51. > :57:54.dropping litter. Will the public lesson? It's a tough sell, going
:57:55. > :58:00.into a campaign saying, your council tax will go up, and by the way, you
:58:01. > :58:03.won't get the same services. It's a tricky one. That is duality they
:58:04. > :58:09.face because of the Kurds being delivered down from central
:58:10. > :58:16.government. It is imported local politicians get the message out --
:58:17. > :58:21.because of the cuts. Most importantly, we've got a stake in
:58:22. > :58:25.these local elections, we are paying council tax ?1400 a year on average.
:58:26. > :58:30.These elections are important. I don't care what way you build, but
:58:31. > :58:37.participate. There has been a lot of talk in Wales about 22 councils,
:58:38. > :58:43.they should merge, there's too many. The potential fight, which seems to
:58:44. > :58:47.have gone away. Is the future of the merged justice voluntary cooperation
:58:48. > :58:51.that they have to do according to the new Local Government Secretary?
:58:52. > :58:57.Yes, there will be a new approach of councils working together in a
:58:58. > :59:04.collaborative way will stop will that address the problems of not
:59:05. > :59:08.enough money? Potentially, they will work together to help save some
:59:09. > :59:12.money is by working on a regional basis. They are doing this on key
:59:13. > :59:16.service areas so they can make a difference by working together on
:59:17. > :59:21.education or transport. I guess that then raises the problem of
:59:22. > :59:25.accountability. If three councils merged together on school services,
:59:26. > :59:31.for example, and someone close as your local school, who do you hold
:59:32. > :59:34.to account if three councils have come together? Absolutely, this is a
:59:35. > :59:38.key area where the need to be more thought and discussion about the
:59:39. > :59:41.accountability. We already have existing regional arrangements in
:59:42. > :59:45.place, but is not quite clear whether politicians fit into those
:59:46. > :59:50.arrangements in order to hold those bodies to account. You said more
:59:51. > :59:56.needs to be looked at. Can you think of a way around that? You need to be
:59:57. > :00:00.sure that in any arrangements on a regional bases, local politicians
:00:01. > :00:06.play a role in those bodies. So, on a proportional basis, you talk about
:00:07. > :00:10.a regional structure, you need councillors to work together, to
:00:11. > :00:13.make sure the key decision makers are held to account for key
:00:14. > :00:21.decisions that are taken with a lot of public money. Quickly, why are
:00:22. > :00:24.these elections so important? I also think local elections are incredibly
:00:25. > :00:29.important, and fortunately most of the public don't agree. We are
:00:30. > :00:31.talking about lots of money, so it is important, go out and vote. Great
:00:32. > :00:33.message to end on. That's it for this week,
:00:34. > :00:36.but don't forget our overnight coverage of the local election
:00:37. > :01:15.results, as they come in, We have the local elections, Metro
:01:16. > :01:19.elections in Liverpool, greater Birmingham, West Midlands, how will
:01:20. > :01:23.they play into the general election? Significantly, it is very unusual.
:01:24. > :01:28.People keep comparing this with the election in 83, not! Margaret
:01:29. > :01:32.Thatcher was nervous and to wait until after the local elections to
:01:33. > :01:35.call the election to see the result. We are getting these result in the
:01:36. > :01:41.middle of an election campaign so it will be important, whoever does
:01:42. > :01:45.badly will suffer a dent in confidence in terms of how they
:01:46. > :01:49.approach the election and we are also going to have mayoral figures
:01:50. > :01:55.as a reminder of another big difference with the 80s that however
:01:56. > :01:58.big, say, the Conservatives win in Westminster, there are now sectors
:01:59. > :02:02.of power in other parts of the United Kingdom which were not there
:02:03. > :02:07.in the 80s. One of the reasons niches that are rated in 83 was
:02:08. > :02:12.memories were still alive in political circles of 1970, Wilson
:02:13. > :02:17.saw the local election results and thought, I can win, he was told he
:02:18. > :02:20.would win by the Economist magazine, who had done the analysis, and of
:02:21. > :02:28.course he lost, so that is why she waited, Mrs May does not need to
:02:29. > :02:31.wait for that at all now, and on the Metro elections, the one she will be
:02:32. > :02:35.looking at is the West Midlands, that is the one that is a
:02:36. > :02:39.competition. I think she can really lose on Thursday in the local
:02:40. > :02:43.elections, governing parties are supposed to take effect again,
:02:44. > :02:49.losing lots of council seats. She is projected to put on 100 or so seats,
:02:50. > :02:53.Labour projected to lose around 200, the first time the main opposition
:02:54. > :02:57.party has shed seats since something like 83 so clearly the local
:02:58. > :03:01.elections give Mrs May great momentum going into the general
:03:02. > :03:04.election campaign but there is a downside in that, which is what we
:03:05. > :03:09.have already heard fighting about this morning, if it looks like it is
:03:10. > :03:13.going too well for the Tories, it says to voters, why bother turning
:03:14. > :03:16.up? Sushi comes up with totally unbelievable sound bites this
:03:17. > :03:23.morning that this is the most important general election in her
:03:24. > :03:29.lifetime. Really?! For her it is! It always is until the next one! I
:03:30. > :03:34.wonder if voter turnout is a problem? Tory voters are more likely
:03:35. > :03:39.to vote than Labour voters. If there is a sense that it is all over bar
:03:40. > :03:43.the shouting, the overall turnout will be low that Tory voters are
:03:44. > :03:48.still likely to turn out more than Labour voters so she would still win
:03:49. > :03:52.some. I don't think she needs to be too worried, I think there will be a
:03:53. > :04:00.significantly low turnout, even I am finding it hard to be that excited
:04:01. > :04:04.about this general election. Really, the policies, we have spent a lot of
:04:05. > :04:08.time talking about them today and we have to examine them, but all this
:04:09. > :04:12.is about is, do you want Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn in Number Ten?
:04:13. > :04:16.Those are the only question is, apart from possibly how strong do
:04:17. > :04:21.you feel about Brexit, that will be on the voters' minds. You may say
:04:22. > :04:26.that but I will not be put off from going through a list of policies
:04:27. > :04:32.that we have already had in the last 24 hours. On the Conservatives, more
:04:33. > :04:40.powers to stop company bosses under pensions, of course Philip Green was
:04:41. > :04:45.in mind there. Labour has come up with quite a few policies, actually,
:04:46. > :04:54.give all work of equal rights, whether part-time or full-time,
:04:55. > :04:59.temporary or permanent. Ukip, scrap VAT or takeaway -- on takeaway food
:05:00. > :05:05.and end the BBC licence fee. The Liberal Democrats have come out
:05:06. > :05:12.posed to the runway at Heathrow. I thought I knew that already? Will
:05:13. > :05:18.any of these policies make a difference? They are all nice handy
:05:19. > :05:22.things that people quite liked but probably not, is the answer. They
:05:23. > :05:25.are an awful way away from polling day now for people to remember and
:05:26. > :05:31.latch onto. I don't think you make your mind up on small issues like
:05:32. > :05:34.Heathrow, unless you live in Richmond-upon-Thames, maybe, but the
:05:35. > :05:39.problem Labour have got with unfailing a lot of these retail type
:05:40. > :05:44.policies which, in themselves, are very popular, is no one will listen
:05:45. > :05:47.to them until they get over the leadership credibility issue. Jeremy
:05:48. > :05:50.Corbyn could the world on a stick, but if no one believes he can
:05:51. > :05:54.deliver it then he will not be listened to and he has not done much
:05:55. > :05:57.apart from a speech yesterday in which is claim to fame was getting
:05:58. > :06:03.arrested, I don't see how that would work for him getting to Number Ten.
:06:04. > :06:09.They are not making progress on it. Labour has rolled out a number of
:06:10. > :06:15.policies which, taken individually, would have certain traction in
:06:16. > :06:18.normal times, quite interesting ideas, this sense of unfairness, a
:06:19. > :06:23.feeling that ordinary workers have not done well out of the recovery,
:06:24. > :06:27.those who caused the crash have, 20 points, I went through some of them
:06:28. > :06:32.earlier, putting aside they are not costed, we are assured they will be.
:06:33. > :06:38.The problem I suggest is not the costing but the cut through? Every
:06:39. > :06:41.election has a context which is determined by opinion polls, however
:06:42. > :06:45.sceptical we are these days, and if one party is way ahead it is
:06:46. > :06:50.difficult for the other party to appear relevant, because if people
:06:51. > :06:55.assume they are not going to win, even some of its own MPs are saying,
:06:56. > :07:02.we are not going to win this, so you can vote for us, it is very hard to
:07:03. > :07:06.get attention and relevance. Where I think all the parties are bad with
:07:07. > :07:12.their current leaders is framing arguments, so those policies you
:07:13. > :07:15.have highlighted makes sense. The best leaders are brilliant framers
:07:16. > :07:21.of an argument and neither Theresa Maynor Jeremy Corbyn R. They have
:07:22. > :07:26.been campaigning, their manifestos are not out yet, both sides have
:07:27. > :07:29.been telling us we have to wait for costings, but it has not stopped
:07:30. > :07:34.them campaigning. Let's remind you of where they have been and what
:07:35. > :07:40.they have been doing so far. Let's start with Jeremy Corbyn, his
:07:41. > :07:43.first official visit was in the ultra-marginal Conservative seat of
:07:44. > :07:49.Croydon Central where the MP Gavin Barwell has a lead of just 165. That
:07:50. > :07:53.is not the only Conservative seat he has visited, along the way he popped
:07:54. > :07:59.in on Bristol North West, a Conservative majority of nearly
:08:00. > :08:06.5000. The Tory seat of Cardiff North, a lead of just over 2000,
:08:07. > :08:11.Warrington South, just over 2700, and Crewe and Nantwich, Tory
:08:12. > :08:17.majority of three and a half thousand. Yesterday he visited
:08:18. > :08:22.Bethnal greed and Bob, a Labour lead of 20 4000. Theresa May kicked off
:08:23. > :08:27.her campaign in Bolton, Labour majority of over 4000. On her way
:08:28. > :08:32.round the UK she had a comfy stop in her own maidenhead seat, where she
:08:33. > :08:35.is defending a majority of nearly 30,000, before travelling to other
:08:36. > :08:42.Labour marginals including Dudley North, a Labour lead of 4000.
:08:43. > :08:44.Bridgend, a lead of just under 2004 Labour, before becoming ambitious
:08:45. > :09:00.and visiting shadow minister Richard Bergen's Leeds East seat, which he
:09:01. > :09:02.won by over 12,500 votes. Yesterday she went north of the border to
:09:03. > :09:04.Aberdeenshire, where amongst other places she visited the SNP seat of
:09:05. > :09:06.West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, where the Tories would have to gain
:09:07. > :09:13.over 7000 votes to unseat the NP. What do you make of it all so far?
:09:14. > :09:17.It is remarkable she is doing these visits in Scotland. Past but even
:09:18. > :09:21.five years and the idea of a Tory Prime Minister going round Scotland
:09:22. > :09:26.would be utterly counter-productive, and actually they are ambitious for
:09:27. > :09:30.Scotland now under with Davidson, a prospect of multiple seats, and that
:09:31. > :09:33.would be a real genuine shift in Scottish politics, the likes of
:09:34. > :09:43.which we have not seen for 15 or 20 years. If she gets that, that helps
:09:44. > :09:47.towards 100 seats, because if she wins ten in Scotland, it is
:09:48. > :09:52.effectively 20, the SNP lose ten, she gains ten, she wants to do that
:09:53. > :09:57.in the Midlands with Labour, and the North. To get the 100 majority,
:09:58. > :10:02.other than Scotland, she has to win Labour seats, that is all that is
:10:03. > :10:06.there. And clearly she has been told, it is obvious, that she has a
:10:07. > :10:09.chance of doing so, otherwise you don't go to these parts of the
:10:10. > :10:15.country in the first few days of the campaign. All logic points to her
:10:16. > :10:19.being able to pull it off as well. The opinion polls, the state of the
:10:20. > :10:24.Labour Party. The only qualification I have in this is that politics is
:10:25. > :10:31.so wild and free Braille at the moment, it doesn't feel like
:10:32. > :10:36.landslide to rain. That is true, it doesn't. It is early days, we
:10:37. > :10:40.haven't yet had the manifestos, the campaign is yet to gather momentum.
:10:41. > :10:49.It doesn't feel like landslide territory. I disagree, look at every
:10:50. > :10:53.single poll, the Tory lead is 10% in Wales, you can see her picking up 20
:10:54. > :10:58.seat there. Put this together, I am told by the way she is going into
:10:59. > :11:03.traditional Labour heartland again tomorrow, the key is the Ukip vote.
:11:04. > :11:23.That will implode... Crumble towards Tories? If she can hoover that up
:11:24. > :11:23.and retain the Tory vote, she will have a majority of 150.
:11:24. > :11:24.I cannot let you go without reminding you that it is Donald
:11:25. > :11:24.Trump's 100 days. He's not making a lot of it now, this is what he said
:11:25. > :11:27.last night. We are just beginning in our fight
:11:28. > :11:30.to make America great again. exciting and very productive,
:11:31. > :11:39.100 days, which has been very exciting and very productive,
:11:40. > :11:44.let's rate the media's 100 days. Because, as you know,
:11:45. > :12:03.they are a disgrace. There you go, still bashing the
:12:04. > :12:08.media, that was at a rally in Virginia, the 100 days was last
:12:09. > :12:12.night. He seems happier campaigning than running the country. You each
:12:13. > :12:21.have 20 seconds to give me your board on the first 100 days.
:12:22. > :12:26.Remarkable, he will not stop slagging off the media but America
:12:27. > :12:29.first has not meant America first in terms of national policy, he has
:12:30. > :12:34.reneges on what he said about Nato being obsolete. He is moving from
:12:35. > :12:42.the old right to the centre because that is where you get things done,
:12:43. > :12:48.he is a pragmatist, also is about's friend Nigel Parrott is no longer
:12:49. > :12:53.welcome, we read this morning! Allegedly! He loves campaigning but
:12:54. > :12:57.finds governing much more difficult. Who would have thought being
:12:58. > :13:00.president of the United States was a difficult job?! He loves rallies but
:13:01. > :13:06.being president and politics is a very difficult thing indeed. Thank
:13:07. > :13:08.you, there we go, Mr Trump's 100 days, we will see what the next 100
:13:09. > :13:11.brings. The Daily Politics is back
:13:12. > :13:14.on BBC Two after the bank holiday on Tuesday at midday,
:13:15. > :13:16.with all the latest And I'll be back here
:13:17. > :13:20.on BBC One next Sunday Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:21. > :13:30.it's the Sunday Politics.